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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Another polling blow for the Tories in phase 2 of the CON m

SystemSystem Posts: 12,215
edited December 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Another polling blow for the Tories in phase 2 of the CON marginals polling funded by a UKIP donor

The focus in the latest phase was on two of the key marginals from 2010 where the Tories missed out by the narrowest of margins. Both Dudley North and Great Grimsby are in the CON top ten seats to win.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    edited December 2013
    Bloody hell

    The only consolation I can draw from this polling is, the Lib Dems on 2%

    Hahaha.

    If 2015 is going to be a Götterdämmerung for us blues, the Yellow Peril are also going to suffer as well
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    Looks like it is a battle of the polling donors

    But Bown says his polling challenges the findings of polling by Lord Ashcroft, the former Conservative deputy chairman, suggesting Ukip is weakening Tory chances of an overall majority, and is only likely to put Ed Miliband into Number 10.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    The Guardian write up on this

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/dec/03/tories-behind-labour-level-with-ukip-key-marginals
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited December 2013
    To be fair these are two seats the Tories were never going to win in 2015 despite coming close in 2010. I hope we get polls from seats like Birmingham Edgbaston, Hampstead & Kilburn, Camborne & Redruth in future.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    tim said:

    The saddos are more bothered about immigration than anything else.

    And Cameron is going to learn a very hard lesson about making pledges he can't keep at the same time as employing a rabble rouser who didn't know the Tories couldn't outflank UKIP.

    They deserve all they get.

    Oh tim, you're back !

    After all that PISA and McCluskey stuff today I thought you were lying low.

    I see it's Rihanna's corset time.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    AndyJS said:

    To be fair these are two seats the Tories were never going to win in 2015 despite coming close in 2010. I hope we get polls from seats like Birmingham Edgbaston, Hampstead & Kilburn, Camborne & Redruth in future.

    How's that unfair ? These are seats Cameron should have been picking up if he wanted a majority.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    TheScreamingEagles said:


    The only consolation I can draw from this polling is, the Lib Dems on 2%

    Hahaha.

    If 2015 is going to be a Götterdämmerung for us blues, the Yellow Peril are also going to suffer as well

    Polling 2% in seats like this is good news for the Lib Dems. They want their known polling losses to be concentrated in seats like this where they dont have a hope. The alternative (a less dire showing here) would be worse for them.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    edited December 2013
    Neil said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:


    The only consolation I can draw from this polling is, the Lib Dems on 2%

    Hahaha.

    If 2015 is going to be a Götterdämmerung for us blues, the Yellow Peril are also going to suffer as well

    Polling 2% in seats like this is good news for the Lib Dems. They want their known polling losses to be concentrated in seats like this where they dont have a hope. The alternative (a less dire showing here) would be worse for them.
    Stop ruining my straw clutching session.

    Or I'll start posting pictures of shoes.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,902
    Alanbrooke, They could get a majority through LD seats
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Neil said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:


    The only consolation I can draw from this polling is, the Lib Dems on 2%

    Hahaha.

    If 2015 is going to be a Götterdämmerung for us blues, the Yellow Peril are also going to suffer as well

    Polling 2% in seats like this is good news for the Lib Dems. They want their known polling losses to be concentrated in seats like this where they dont have a hope. The alternative (a less dire showing here) would be worse for them.
    It shows how betting on lost deposits and overs on the seat markets could both come about.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    This is a terrible poll for the Lib Dems and catastrophic for the Tories. They both desperately need to stop the advance of UKIP.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,902
    PPP Illinois 2016

    •Chris Christie 18%
    •Ted Cruz 13%
    •Jeb Bush 12%
    •Rand Paul 10%
    •Paul Ryan 9%
    •Scott Walker 7%
    •Marco Rubio 6%
    •Bobby Jindal 4%
    •Rick Santorum 4%
    •Someone else/Not sure 16%
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    HYUFD said:

    Alanbrooke, They could get a majority through LD seats

    In their dreams.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Pulpstar said:

    Neil said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:


    The only consolation I can draw from this polling is, the Lib Dems on 2%

    Hahaha.

    If 2015 is going to be a Götterdämmerung for us blues, the Yellow Peril are also going to suffer as well

    Polling 2% in seats like this is good news for the Lib Dems. They want their known polling losses to be concentrated in seats like this where they dont have a hope. The alternative (a less dire showing here) would be worse for them.
    It shows how betting on lost deposits and overs on the seat markets could both come about.
    I thought the Paddy Power odds on lost deposits were exceptionally generous (given what we've seen in Scotland and Wales already).
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Are we meant to take these polls seriously? Survation! When did they ever get remotely near correctly predicting an election? Such polls almost 18 months before a GE are a joke. There is no way UKIP will get 10% let alone 23% at the GE.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Yup, all those Tories voting kipper...

    @MSmithsonPB: Survation found that 70% of UKIP Voters in their Great Grimsby & Dudley N polls DID NOT vote CON at GE2010

    Oh
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    No doubt somebody is doing the number crunching as we speak but on these polls we must be looking at Labour achieving a thumping majority on a poll share of about 35%.

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    tim said:


    No, it's polling data on Tory and UKIP voters focusing more on immigration than anything else in their whole lives, their tiny sad lives.

    tim, I think that those of us who post as much as we do on a website for political obsessives should probably be careful about who we accuse of living "tiny sad lives".
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Dudley North was the 8th worst Lib Dem result in England at the 2010 GE . The Conservatives in Dudley had 2 more councillors resign from the party this week making 5 this year . Apart from Dudley North the borough includes 2 marginal Conservative seats , Dudley South and Halesowen and Rowley Regis which look goners on these swings .
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    tim said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    tim said:

    The saddos are more bothered about immigration than anything else.

    And Cameron is going to learn a very hard lesson about making pledges he can't keep at the same time as employing a rabble rouser who didn't know the Tories couldn't outflank UKIP.

    They deserve all they get.

    Oh tim, you're back !

    After all that PISA and McCluskey stuff today I thought you were lying low.

    I see it's Rihanna's corset time.
    No, it's polling data on Tory and UKIP voters focusing more on immigration than anything else in their whole lives, their tiny sad lives.
    And Dave has missed his migration target and employed a bigot to exploit immigration.
    They deserve all they get
    Well now you're just sounding spiteful. people rarely get what they deserve whether good or bad if that were the case most Labour MPs would be locked up by now and Ed would be working in Poundland Doncaster learning the basics of economics.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    Irish police colluded with IRA over murders of RUC officers, tribunal finds

    Smithwick inquiry: Gardaí collaborated with IRA to set up assassination of Harry Breen and Bob Buchanan in 1989

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/dec/03/irish-police-colluded-with-ira-over-ruc-murders-smithwick
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MrHarryCole: Head of Sky News Jon Riley confirms all 3 party leaders have now confirmed they will take part in the leaders debates. No further detail.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Easterross said:

    Are we meant to take these polls seriously? Survation! When did they ever get remotely near correctly predicting an election? Such polls almost 18 months before a GE are a joke. There is no way UKIP will get 10% let alone 23% at the GE.

    Someone's rattled.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    If 70% of UKIP voters didn't vote Con in 2010, who did they vote for in 2010?

    Doesn't look like many have come from Lab and all the rest can't have come from LD.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Neil said:

    Easterross said:

    Are we meant to take these polls seriously? Survation! When did they ever get remotely near correctly predicting an election? Such polls almost 18 months before a GE are a joke. There is no way UKIP will get 10% let alone 23% at the GE.

    Someone's rattled.
    Not remotely rattled. Just think it absurd to make hyperbolic pronouncements on the basis of tiny polls run by a 2nd rate pollster. If it was ICM or Ipsos Mori I might begin to show a little concern.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Note that Survation are prompting UKIP in the question.

    Then bear in mind that night after night after night in the GE campaign UKIP won't be mentioned at all on the news and they won't be in the debates either.

    Now people may say that's unfair but it is what is going to actually happen.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    SeanT said:

    k, Think this quote from Neil is going straight into my all time pb top ten COMPLETELY LAUGHABLY STUPIDLY RIDICULOUS STATEMENTS WORTHY OF A WORLD CHAMPION PINHEAD:

    "Polling 2% in seats like this is good news for the Lib Dems."

    The Lib Dems still pretend and purport to be a national party. Getting 2% in any seat in a general election is utterly desperate. It's NF type support. Mebyon Kernow do better in Islington.

    We have a fptp electoral system. Uneven support is better than evenly spread support. I dont expect you to understand. We already know that the Lib Dems are dead in large swathes of the country. We've seen that in previous election results since 2010 like, for example, the number of lost deposits in Scotland and Wales in 2011.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Great Grimsby has been a relatively safe Labour seat since 1945 except 1983, 2010 and the by-election following Tony Crossland's death. The Tories are never likely to win this seat unless the entire Labour vote goes to UKIP.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    Sort of on topic.

    I've been to Grimsby a few times.

    Can anyone explain to me, what exactly is Great about it?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited December 2013
    "70% of UKIP Voters DID NOT vote CON at GE2010"

    To state the obvious, this is good news as far as turnout is concerned. Maybe it'll mean 70% is a possibility for the first time since 1997.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sort of on topic.

    I've been to Grimsby a few times.

    Can anyone explain to me, what exactly is Great about it?

    There used to be a Little Grimsby I think, or something like that.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Neil said:

    SeanT said:

    k, Think this quote from Neil is going straight into my all time pb top ten COMPLETELY LAUGHABLY STUPIDLY RIDICULOUS STATEMENTS WORTHY OF A WORLD CHAMPION PINHEAD:

    "Polling 2% in seats like this is good news for the Lib Dems."

    The Lib Dems still pretend and purport to be a national party. Getting 2% in any seat in a general election is utterly desperate. It's NF type support. Mebyon Kernow do better in Islington.

    We have a fptp electoral system. Uneven support is better than evenly spread support. I dont expect you to understand. We already know that the Lib Dems are dead in large swathes of the country. We've seen that in previous election results since 2010 like, for example, the number of lost deposits in Scotland and Wales in 2011.
    Neil, please note that the SLDs did appallingly in both their target and non-target seats in 2011. So getting 2% in one seat did not help save the LD MSP in another seat.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    SeanT said:

    Terrible for the Tories, and, yet, remarkably, EVEN WORSE for the LDs.

    UKIP are now, I sense, pretty close to an amazing breakthrough. They are not going away. The electoral odds are still hideously against them - but its now conceivable they could transform UK politics in 2015.

    A UKIP-Tory Coalition winning in 2018-2020 is now very possible. Then we leave the EU.

    Fascinating.

    Fascinating indeed. But I think leaping ahead to a Tory-UKIP coalition might be a tiny bit premature.

    The tactical position of many who remain on the Tory right and those who have departed to UKIP is uncannily similar to that of the Labour left in the 1970s. They believe that their party has been taken over by people who are not genuine Tories (genuine socialists). The government is not worth saving because it is really a continuation of nulab (the Tories). What the Tories (Labour) need is a period in opposition during which the sell-out leadership can be purged, the party can return to the true values of 1979 (1945), values which led to landslide victory in the past and can do so again at the election after next. It is obvious that a Miliband (Thatcher) government will be a disaster and couldn't possibly last more than one term.

    The Labour left were proved comprehensively wrong on all counts and it took them 18 years to see the error of their ways. The Tory right is in danger repeating the same mistakes.


  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Dudley North is also a relatively safe Labour seat which in its former existence as Dudley East was solidly Labour except for a short Tory occupation after a by-election in Harold Wilson's time 1968-1970. They may as well do a poll in Edinburgh Central because the Tories held it from 1983 to 1987.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    Neil said:

    SeanT said:

    k, Think this quote from Neil is going straight into my all time pb top ten COMPLETELY LAUGHABLY STUPIDLY RIDICULOUS STATEMENTS WORTHY OF A WORLD CHAMPION PINHEAD:

    "Polling 2% in seats like this is good news for the Lib Dems."

    The Lib Dems still pretend and purport to be a national party. Getting 2% in any seat in a general election is utterly desperate. It's NF type support. Mebyon Kernow do better in Islington.

    We have a fptp electoral system. Uneven support is better than evenly spread support. I dont expect you to understand. We already know that the Lib Dems are dead in large swathes of the country. We've seen that in previous election results since 2010 like, for example, the number of lost deposits in Scotland and Wales in 2011.
    Neil, please note that the SLDs did appallingly in both their target and non-target seats in 2011. So getting 2% in one seat did not help save the LD MSP in another seat.
    But given a certain (poor) level of polling it is better that it is unevenly distributed (with dire results in no hope places) than more evenly distributed (ie better than 2% in Dudley North). The more uneven their results the more seats they save.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Alanbrooke said:

    AndyJS said:

    To be fair these are two seats the Tories were never going to win in 2015 despite coming close in 2010. I hope we get polls from seats like Birmingham Edgbaston, Hampstead & Kilburn, Camborne & Redruth in future.

    How's that unfair ? These are seats Cameron should have been picking up if he wanted a majority.
    Not really, these are seats where Labour did badly in 2010 rather than the Tories doing well. The Tories probably maximised their potential then. On the other hand in seats like Hampstead or Edgbaston the Tories may have some scope for improvement.

  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    Neil said:

    SeanT said:

    k, Think this quote from Neil is going straight into my all time pb top ten COMPLETELY LAUGHABLY STUPIDLY RIDICULOUS STATEMENTS WORTHY OF A WORLD CHAMPION PINHEAD:

    "Polling 2% in seats like this is good news for the Lib Dems."

    The Lib Dems still pretend and purport to be a national party. Getting 2% in any seat in a general election is utterly desperate. It's NF type support. Mebyon Kernow do better in Islington.

    We have a fptp electoral system. Uneven support is better than evenly spread support. I dont expect you to understand. We already know that the Lib Dems are dead in large swathes of the country. We've seen that in previous election results since 2010 like, for example, the number of lost deposits in Scotland and Wales in 2011.
    Neil, please note that the SLDs did appallingly in both their target and non-target seats in 2011. So getting 2% in one seat did not help save the LD MSP in another seat.
    Have you recovered from yesterday's Yougov Scottish subsample figures with Lib Dems up to 15% , Stuart ?
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    MarkSenior said:

    Dudley North was the 8th worst Lib Dem result in England at the 2010 GE . The Conservatives in Dudley had 2 more councillors resign from the party this week making 5 this year . Apart from Dudley North the borough includes 2 marginal Conservative seats , Dudley South and Halesowen and Rowley Regis which look goners on these swings .

    This from the party that is keeping the Tories in government.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    MarkSenior said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    Neil said:

    SeanT said:

    k, Think this quote from Neil is going straight into my all time pb top ten COMPLETELY LAUGHABLY STUPIDLY RIDICULOUS STATEMENTS WORTHY OF A WORLD CHAMPION PINHEAD:

    "Polling 2% in seats like this is good news for the Lib Dems."

    The Lib Dems still pretend and purport to be a national party. Getting 2% in any seat in a general election is utterly desperate. It's NF type support. Mebyon Kernow do better in Islington.

    We have a fptp electoral system. Uneven support is better than evenly spread support. I dont expect you to understand. We already know that the Lib Dems are dead in large swathes of the country. We've seen that in previous election results since 2010 like, for example, the number of lost deposits in Scotland and Wales in 2011.
    Neil, please note that the SLDs did appallingly in both their target and non-target seats in 2011. So getting 2% in one seat did not help save the LD MSP in another seat.
    Have you recovered from yesterday's Yougov Scottish subsample figures with Lib Dems up to 15% , Stuart ?
    Funny how you never quote the ones where they are on 2%.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    Neil said:

    SeanT said:

    k, Think this quote from Neil is going straight into my all time pb top ten COMPLETELY LAUGHABLY STUPIDLY RIDICULOUS STATEMENTS WORTHY OF A WORLD CHAMPION PINHEAD:

    "Polling 2% in seats like this is good news for the Lib Dems."

    The Lib Dems still pretend and purport to be a national party. Getting 2% in any seat in a general election is utterly desperate. It's NF type support. Mebyon Kernow do better in Islington.

    We have a fptp electoral system. Uneven support is better than evenly spread support. I dont expect you to understand. We already know that the Lib Dems are dead in large swathes of the country. We've seen that in previous election results since 2010 like, for example, the number of lost deposits in Scotland and Wales in 2011.
    Neil, please note that the SLDs did appallingly in both their target and non-target seats in 2011. So getting 2% in one seat did not help save the LD MSP in another seat.
    Have you recovered from yesterday's Yougov Scottish subsample figures with Lib Dems up to 15% , Stuart ?
    Funny how you never quote the ones where they are on 2%.
    Even funnier how you ONLY quote the ones where they are on 2%
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Dudley North was the 8th worst Lib Dem result in England at the 2010 GE . The Conservatives in Dudley had 2 more councillors resign from the party this week making 5 this year . Apart from Dudley North the borough includes 2 marginal Conservative seats , Dudley South and Halesowen and Rowley Regis which look goners on these swings .

    This from the party that is keeping the Tories in government.
    We are keeping the Lib Dems in government .
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The double digit drops in Tory share don't match up too well with the national polls which show them down by about 4-5 points. They must be doing a lot better elsewhere to compensate.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    Neil said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    Neil said:

    SeanT said:

    k, Think this quote from Neil is going straight into my all time pb top ten COMPLETELY LAUGHABLY STUPIDLY RIDICULOUS STATEMENTS WORTHY OF A WORLD CHAMPION PINHEAD:

    "Polling 2% in seats like this is good news for the Lib Dems."

    The Lib Dems still pretend and purport to be a national party. Getting 2% in any seat in a general election is utterly desperate. It's NF type support. Mebyon Kernow do better in Islington.

    We have a fptp electoral system. Uneven support is better than evenly spread support. I dont expect you to understand. We already know that the Lib Dems are dead in large swathes of the country. We've seen that in previous election results since 2010 like, for example, the number of lost deposits in Scotland and Wales in 2011.
    Neil, please note that the SLDs did appallingly in both their target and non-target seats in 2011. So getting 2% in one seat did not help save the LD MSP in another seat.
    But given a certain (poor) level of polling it is better that it is unevenly distributed (with dire results in no hope places) than more evenly distributed (ie better than 2% in Dudley North). The more uneven their results the more seats they save.
    Their vote is already uneven. It is their decline which is even.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    Easterross said:

    Great Grimsby has been a relatively safe Labour seat since 1945 except 1983, 2010 and the by-election following Tony Crossland's death. The Tories are never likely to win this seat unless the entire Labour vote goes to UKIP.

    But Ukip could possibly win if all the Tory vote switches.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    @StuartDickson


    Alistair Darling has been dubbed “comatose” by senior Conservatives, amid signs of growing frustration in Downing Street over the former Labour chancellor’s leadership of the “Better Together” Scottish campaign.

    With just 10 months to go before the referendum on Scotland’s independence, the Tory top command is growing increasingly concerned that Mr Darling is not pressing the case for the union hard enough.

    “The man has never run a campaign,” said one very senior Tory figure. “He is comatose most of the time.” One Downing Street source described Mr Darling as a “dreary figurehead” for such an important campaign.

    A Tory whispering campaign against Mr Darling has been growing in recent weeks. While party insiders accept that the head of the unionist campaign has to be a Labour politician, some
    Conservatives have been arguing the Labour heavyweight is treating Alex Salmond, Scottish first minister and leader of the Scottish National party, too gently.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/34bf91ec-5c47-11e3-b4f3-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=uk#axzz2mRtkIZBt
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,713
    AndyJS said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    AndyJS said:

    To be fair these are two seats the Tories were never going to win in 2015 despite coming close in 2010. I hope we get polls from seats like Birmingham Edgbaston, Hampstead & Kilburn, Camborne & Redruth in future.

    How's that unfair ? These are seats Cameron should have been picking up if he wanted a majority.
    Not really, these are seats where Labour did badly in 2010 rather than the Tories doing well. The Tories probably maximised their potential then.
    Yes, the 2010 result might have been Tory 'ghost challenges' - mysterious closings of the gap which melt away and are never seen again. In 2010, wise heads on PB.com told me that this phenomenon was at work in Eastleigh and that the Tories never had a chance or taking the seat despite appearances to the contrary. And so it proved.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    edited December 2013
    Tories betting on Scotland voting Yes* say Alistair Darling should be replaced as head of Better Together by Gordon Brown

    *This group is made up of me.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,471
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sort of on topic.

    I've been to Grimsby a few times.

    Can anyone explain to me, what exactly is Great about it?

    Two things are great about Grimsby:
    1) Grimsby Dock Tower, which would grace any skyline.
    2) The roads leading out.

    Which is one more thing than nearby Immingham.
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    MarkSenior said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    Neil said:

    SeanT said:

    k, Think this quote from Neil is going straight into my all time pb top ten COMPLETELY LAUGHABLY STUPIDLY RIDICULOUS STATEMENTS WORTHY OF A WORLD CHAMPION PINHEAD:

    "Polling 2% in seats like this is good news for the Lib Dems."

    The Lib Dems still pretend and purport to be a national party. Getting 2% in any seat in a general election is utterly desperate. It's NF type support. Mebyon Kernow do better in Islington.

    We have a fptp electoral system. Uneven support is better than evenly spread support. I dont expect you to understand. We already know that the Lib Dems are dead in large swathes of the country. We've seen that in previous election results since 2010 like, for example, the number of lost deposits in Scotland and Wales in 2011.
    Neil, please note that the SLDs did appallingly in both their target and non-target seats in 2011. So getting 2% in one seat did not help save the LD MSP in another seat.
    Have you recovered from yesterday's Yougov Scottish subsample figures with Lib Dems up to 15% , Stuart ?
    Funny how you never quote the ones where they are on 2%.
    Even funnier how you ONLY quote the ones where they are on 2%
    That is a straightforward falsehood. Only this morning I quoted the SLDs as being on 8%.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Stuart_Dickson said:

    Neil said:

    Stuart_Dickson said:

    Neil said:

    SeanT said:

    k, Think this quote from Neil is going straight into my all time pb top ten COMPLETELY LAUGHABLY STUPIDLY RIDICULOUS STATEMENTS WORTHY OF A WORLD CHAMPION PINHEAD:

    "Polling 2% in seats like this is good news for the Lib Dems."

    The Lib Dems still pretend and purport to be a national party. Getting 2% in any seat in a general election is utterly desperate. It's NF type support. Mebyon Kernow do better in Islington.

    We have a fptp electoral system. Uneven support is better than evenly spread support. I dont expect you to understand. We already know that the Lib Dems are dead in large swathes of the country. We've seen that in previous election results since 2010 like, for example, the number of lost deposits in Scotland and Wales in 2011.
    Neil, please note that the SLDs did appallingly in both their target and non-target seats in 2011. So getting 2% in one seat did not help save the LD MSP in another seat.
    But given a certain (poor) level of polling it is better that it is unevenly distributed (with dire results in no hope places) than more evenly distributed (ie better than 2% in Dudley North). The more uneven their results the more seats they save.
    Their vote is already uneven. It is their decline which is even.
    I think you're wrong in that. Compare Sheffield Hallam to, say, Liverpool or Manchester. Those declines seem uneven to me.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    AndyJS said:

    The double digit drops in Tory share don't match up too well with the national polls which show them down by about 4-5 points. They must be doing a lot better elsewhere to compensate.

    They won't be doing better elsewhere - Con vote change isn't going to vary that much.

    This is what happens if you prompt UKIP in the question - and remember 25% of people are getting UKIP listed FIRST in the voting options.

    Then in April / May 2015 they will see literally hundreds of news reports not mentioning UKIP - it's blindingly obvious what is going to happen.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,902
    Alanbrooke - But it is more likely than through Labour ones.

    Darling is actually the best man to win a referendum campaign, dull but seen as a safe pair of hands, and not someone who will throw away the No lead
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @StuartDickson


    Alistair Darling has been dubbed “comatose” by senior Conservatives, amid signs of growing frustration in Downing Street over the former Labour chancellor’s leadership of the “Better Together” Scottish campaign.

    With just 10 months to go before the referendum on Scotland’s independence, the Tory top command is growing increasingly concerned that Mr Darling is not pressing the case for the union hard enough.

    “The man has never run a campaign,” said one very senior Tory figure. “He is comatose most of the time.” One Downing Street source described Mr Darling as a “dreary figurehead” for such an important campaign.

    A Tory whispering campaign against Mr Darling has been growing in recent weeks. While party insiders accept that the head of the unionist campaign has to be a Labour politician, some
    Conservatives have been arguing the Labour heavyweight is treating Alex Salmond, Scottish first minister and leader of the Scottish National party, too gently.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/34bf91ec-5c47-11e3-b4f3-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=uk#axzz2mRtkIZBt

    A pretty farcical story after a poll showing Yes on 27 and No on 56, two days after the Nats launch their Big White Paper.

    Darling is winning the referendum hands down. If the Tories want to whisper against someone, they could whisper and ask why they elevated the doleful Carmichael to Scottish Sec.
    Jim Murphy would have been a better leader than Darling. Miliband would not have liked it though.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    AndyJS said:

    The double digit drops in Tory share don't match up too well with the national polls which show them down by about 4-5 points. They must be doing a lot better elsewhere to compensate.

    In 2010 they got a bigger than average swing in no-hope seats and a smaller than average one in their targets, if memory serves.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,790
    tim said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    tim said:

    The saddos are more bothered about immigration than anything else.

    And Cameron is going to learn a very hard lesson about making pledges he can't keep at the same time as employing a rabble rouser who didn't know the Tories couldn't outflank UKIP.

    They deserve all they get.

    Oh tim, you're back !

    After all that PISA and McCluskey stuff today I thought you were lying low.

    I see it's Rihanna's corset time.
    No, it's polling data on Tory and UKIP voters focusing more on immigration than anything else in their whole lives, their tiny sad lives.
    And Dave has missed his migration target and employed a bigot to exploit immigration.
    They deserve all they get
    The person who seems to be obsessed by immigration the most here is you tim.

    You don't seem to have mentioned today's construction PMI data - have you lost your previous interest in housebuilding ?
  • Stuart_DicksonStuart_Dickson Posts: 3,557
    tim said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @StuartDickson


    Alistair Darling has been dubbed “comatose” by senior Conservatives, amid signs of growing frustration in Downing Street over the former Labour chancellor’s leadership of the “Better Together” Scottish campaign.

    With just 10 months to go before the referendum on Scotland’s independence, the Tory top command is growing increasingly concerned that Mr Darling is not pressing the case for the union hard enough.

    “The man has never run a campaign,” said one very senior Tory figure. “He is comatose most of the time.” One Downing Street source described Mr Darling as a “dreary figurehead” for such an important campaign.

    A Tory whispering campaign against Mr Darling has been growing in recent weeks. While party insiders accept that the head of the unionist campaign has to be a Labour politician, some
    Conservatives have been arguing the Labour heavyweight is treating Alex Salmond, Scottish first minister and leader of the Scottish National party, too gently.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/34bf91ec-5c47-11e3-b4f3-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=uk#axzz2mRtkIZBt

    And the independence polls say that the Tory leadership is clueless in Scotland, they want a more bravado campaign?
    Twits.
    The oddest thing about it is that they think they know more about winning Scottish elections than the Labour Party. A quick glance at election results disproves that delusion.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,975
    Is the name Grimsby onomatopoeic?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    Interesting column by Alice Thomson in the Times

    Tories worry that Cameron is surrendering to Lib Dem demands in order to secure a second coalition
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    Roger said:

    Is the name Grimsby onomatopoeic?

    Yes
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,790
    Easterross said:

    Dudley North is also a relatively safe Labour seat which in its former existence as Dudley East was solidly Labour except for a short Tory occupation after a by-election in Harold Wilson's time 1968-1970. They may as well do a poll in Edinburgh Central because the Tories held it from 1983 to 1987.

    Easterross

    Let me explain.

    As some constituencies trend away from the Conservative others trend towards them.

    There can be various political and demographic reasons behind these trends.

    To make up for constituencies that they held in the past but are now no longer winnable the Conservatives need to win other constituencies which have become more favourable to them.

    Grimsby and Dudley North fall into the latter category.

    So in any discussion about the chances of a Conservative overall majority in 2015 or indeed even the Conservatives being the largest party in 2020 then the likelihood or not of the Conservatives winning in Grimsby and Dudley North is fundamental.

    Whereas discussions about the Conservatives winning in urban areas is pointless as such gains could only be achieved in a Conservative landslide (and probably not even then for the likes of Mitcham, Edmonton and Hayes which were Conservative in 1992) and nobody regards that as a possibility in 2015.

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Interesting column by Alice Thomson in the Times

    Tories worry that Cameron is surrendering to Lib Dem demands in order to secure a second coalition

    There is a small problem. It is called Arithmetic.

    CON + LD > 325. Fat chance !!
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited December 2013
    @Stuart_Dickson

    Can Scotland cope with ten months of Nicola Sturgeon? She's very one dimensional and is ok in small doses - but the whole of the IndyRef campaign? She was poor on QuestionTime.

    Salmond has got to get stuck in
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,975
    @Eagle

    "Interesting column by Alice Thomson in the Times"

    That'll be a first. Was she fired by the Telegraph?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    MikeSmithson said:

    @Stuart_Dickson

    Can Scotland cope with ten months of Nicola Sturgeon? She's very one dimensional and is ok in small doses - but the whole of the IndyRef campaign? She was poor on QuestionTime.

    Salmond has got to get stuck in

    Nicola is the fall girl for when it all goes horribly wrong. Alex can keep his hands clean
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    Roger said:

    @Eagle

    "Interesting column by Alice Thomson in the Times"

    That'll be a first. Was she fired by the Telegraph?

    No
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited December 2013
    Nick Clegg was in Grimsby a few months ago to open a wind farm:

    http://www.grimsbytelegraph.co.uk/Video-Nick-Clegg-Grimsby-officially-open-Lincs/story-19600969-detail/story.html
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 35s

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead back up to 8: CON 32%, LAB 40%, LD 9%, UKIP 12%
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,568
    MikeL said:

    AndyJS said:

    The double digit drops in Tory share don't match up too well with the national polls which show them down by about 4-5 points. They must be doing a lot better elsewhere to compensate.

    They won't be doing better elsewhere - Con vote change isn't going to vary that much.

    This is what happens if you prompt UKIP in the question - and remember 25% of people are getting UKIP listed FIRST in the voting options.

    Then in April / May 2015 they will see literally hundreds of news reports not mentioning UKIP - it's blindingly obvious what is going to happen.
    I think you're right that the methodology is helpful to UKIP, by giving it equal billing. It does show a clear interest in them - if you put the Socialist Workers' Party with equal billing they wouldn't get much.

    Whether you're right that media will lose interest in them is much more debatable. The media like to hype up exotic possibilities, not dampen them down. If UKIP is still polling in the teens a year from now after the Euros, they will remain interesting through to the election.

    A question that will rear its head next year if the Labour lead persists is whether the Tories will persist with their 40-40 strategy (defend 40 seats, attack 40 seats). In a comparable situation in 2005, Labour started by supporting all its marginals but ended up pulling central support away from places like Broxtowe because they thought we were doomed and "safer" seats needed to be protected. If I was the Tory in their 41st safest seat, I'd be getting restless.

  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Quincel said:

    In 2010 they got a bigger than average swing in no-hope seats and a smaller than average one in their targets, if memory serves.

    No they didn't.

    In 2010 Con outperformed UNS by nearly 20 seats.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Shall we repeat the ultimate truth:

    Sleazy Tories on the slide.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    NickPalmer said:

    MikeL said:

    AndyJS said:

    The double digit drops in Tory share don't match up too well with the national polls which show them down by about 4-5 points. They must be doing a lot better elsewhere to compensate.

    They won't be doing better elsewhere - Con vote change isn't going to vary that much.

    This is what happens if you prompt UKIP in the question - and remember 25% of people are getting UKIP listed FIRST in the voting options.

    Then in April / May 2015 they will see literally hundreds of news reports not mentioning UKIP - it's blindingly obvious what is going to happen.
    I think you're right that the methodology is helpful to UKIP, by giving it equal billing. It does show a clear interest in them - if you put the Socialist Workers' Party with equal billing they wouldn't get much.

    Whether you're right that media will lose interest in them is much more debatable.

    I very much doubt the media will lose interest in UKIP. I wonder how the broadcasters will treat them during the campaign period - if UKIP contest every seat will they get equal airtime with the Lib Dems?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    NickPalmer said:

    Whether you're right that media will lose interest in them is much more debatable. The media like to hype up exotic possibilities, not dampen them down. If UKIP is still polling in the teens a year from now after the Euros, they will remain interesting through to the election.

    The media will remain interested but once the campaign starts the TV is governed by the 5/5/4 rule.

    They'll mention UKIP here and there but they'll have to mention the Greens at least as much, if not more.

    UKIP aren't going to be mentioned in the vast majority of TV news bulletins.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,902
    anT Interesting that in both France and the UK the supposedly 'far right' leaders, Marine Le Pen and Farage are both more popular than the mainstream party leaders
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Looking at the data tables , Survation ( who do not weight for past vote ) over sampled the Conservatives in Dudley North and in their sample had them ahead of Labour in 2010 . 2010 Lib Dem voters were under sampled in both Grimsby slightly and Dudley North .
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    MikeL said:

    Quincel said:

    In 2010 they got a bigger than average swing in no-hope seats and a smaller than average one in their targets, if memory serves.

    No they didn't.

    In 2010 Con outperformed UNS by nearly 20 seats.
    Ah, my drunken memories of watching the BBC coverage and spotting a trend are mistaken. Many thanks for the correction.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Anyone doubting that the Conservatives are going to campaign on the deficit should look at the front pages of the Express and the Telegraph.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited December 2013
    "Ethiopia opens Africa's biggest windfarm

    Ashegoda windfarm outside Mekelle in Tigray state cost €210m and builds on plan to create 'climate resilient' economy by 2025":

    http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2013/oct/28/ethiopia-opens-africa-biggest-windfarm
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @TimesNewsdesk: Public’s 40% holding in Eurostar will be sold off http://t.co/6TBXpho2i4

    Maybe Ed will pledge to buy it back...
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Have the ukip funded polls been done already or are they ongoing? Does any one here know?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @CCHQPress: Sun p2: Ed Miliband "fears militants" and is afraid to stand up to trade unions >>> http://t.co/1fWJK0QCL3
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    antifrank said:

    Anyone doubting that the Conservatives are going to campaign on the deficit should look at the front pages of the Express and the Telegraph.

    90 mph Arctic storm ?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BBCNewsnight: NUT's Christine Blowers on world school league tables: the stats show we are actually improving #newsnight
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    On my daily visit to my local Eastern European run cafe, I take the time to browse The Sun...

    BIg anti politics / politicians slant on every issue... Accusing cons of nicking labours ideas, slagging Cameron as much as Miliband....

    And Nick Jarvis is still dating Li Ming in Striker!

    What are the chances The Sun backs UKIP?

    Express and Mail must be contenders too
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    isam said:

    On my daily visit to my local Eastern European run cafe, I take the time to browse The Sun...

    BIg anti politics / politicians slant on every issue... Accusing cons of nicking labours ideas, slagging Cameron as much as Miliband....

    And Nick Jarvis is still dating Li Ming in Striker!

    What are the chances The Sun backs UKIP?

    Express and Mail must be contenders too

    Express is nailed on to support UKIP, surely ?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    tim said:

    isam said:

    Have the ukip funded polls been done already or are they ongoing? Does any one here know?

    Ongoing, they've done them regionally, coastal towns, Midlands etc.

    The Tories can't handle it, look at them on here, a year ago they were all ranting about immigrants, now they see their sad fop leader having ramped UKIP, employed the disgraceful Crosby and failed his migration test - they have to be silent on the issue because they finally worked out Cameron flunked his pledge and they'll always be outflanked by Farage.

    Did they listen Sam, did they?
    I told them didn't I?
    Hmmm interesting... Think there could be one in this neck of the woods before Christmas

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Sun will support Camo, Mail will 'reluctantly' support conservatives.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Is it Hattie v Clegg tomorrow?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,790
    isam said:

    tim said:

    isam said:

    Have the ukip funded polls been done already or are they ongoing? Does any one here know?

    Ongoing, they've done them regionally, coastal towns, Midlands etc.

    The Tories can't handle it, look at them on here, a year ago they were all ranting about immigrants, now they see their sad fop leader having ramped UKIP, employed the disgraceful Crosby and failed his migration test - they have to be silent on the issue because they finally worked out Cameron flunked his pledge and they'll always be outflanked by Farage.

    Did they listen Sam, did they?
    I told them didn't I?
    Hmmm interesting... Think there could be one in this neck of the woods before Christmas

    Possibilities:

    Thurrock
    Morley
    Southampton Itchen
    Swindon or Plymouth

    Ilford N or Erith if there's one from London

    I don't know where UKIP did well in Wales in 2009 but Vale of Clwyd might be interesting
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Normal warnings about marginals polls: They're hard to do, because pollsters are used to getting balanced samples of the whole electorate but not so much single constituencies.

    But I think we need to start taking some of the ridiculous-sounding scenarios seriously, like an unpopular Labour leader winning a landslide on a share of the vote in the mid-thirties.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited December 2013
    another_richard said:

    isam said:

    tim said:

    isam said:

    Have the ukip funded polls been done already or are they ongoing? Does any one here know?

    Ongoing, they've done them regionally, coastal towns, Midlands etc.

    The Tories can't handle it, look at them on here, a year ago they were all ranting about immigrants, now they see their sad fop leader having ramped UKIP, employed the disgraceful Crosby and failed his migration test - they have to be silent on the issue because they finally worked out Cameron flunked his pledge and they'll always be outflanked by Farage.

    Did they listen Sam, did they?
    I told them didn't I?
    Hmmm interesting... Think there could be one in this neck of the woods before Christmas

    Possibilities:

    Thurrock
    Morley
    Southampton Itchen
    Swindon or Plymouth

    Ilford N or Erith if there's one from London

    I don't know where UKIP did well in Wales in 2009 but Vale of Clwyd might be interesting
    Thurrock has to be the one local to me... Hornchurch and Upminster looks nailed on Tory surely?

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hornchurch_and_Upminster_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

    Though the anti immigration vote looks as though it has potential...
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    another_richard said:

    isam said:

    tim said:

    isam said:

    Have the ukip funded polls been done already or are they ongoing? Does any one here know?

    Ongoing, they've done them regionally, coastal towns, Midlands etc.

    The Tories can't handle it, look at them on here, a year ago they were all ranting about immigrants, now they see their sad fop leader having ramped UKIP, employed the disgraceful Crosby and failed his migration test - they have to be silent on the issue because they finally worked out Cameron flunked his pledge and they'll always be outflanked by Farage.

    Did they listen Sam, did they?
    I told them didn't I?
    Hmmm interesting... Think there could be one in this neck of the woods before Christmas

    Possibilities:

    Thurrock
    Morley
    Southampton Itchen
    Swindon or Plymouth

    Ilford N or Erith if there's one from London

    I don't know where UKIP did well in Wales in 2009 but Vale of Clwyd might be interesting
    Thurrock at 16/1 looks a great bet for 2015
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,790
    isam said:

    another_richard said:

    isam said:

    tim said:

    isam said:

    Have the ukip funded polls been done already or are they ongoing? Does any one here know?

    Ongoing, they've done them regionally, coastal towns, Midlands etc.

    The Tories can't handle it, look at them on here, a year ago they were all ranting about immigrants, now they see their sad fop leader having ramped UKIP, employed the disgraceful Crosby and failed his migration test - they have to be silent on the issue because they finally worked out Cameron flunked his pledge and they'll always be outflanked by Farage.

    Did they listen Sam, did they?
    I told them didn't I?
    Hmmm interesting... Think there could be one in this neck of the woods before Christmas

    Possibilities:

    Thurrock
    Morley
    Southampton Itchen
    Swindon or Plymouth

    Ilford N or Erith if there's one from London

    I don't know where UKIP did well in Wales in 2009 but Vale of Clwyd might be interesting
    Thurrock has to be the one local to me... Hornchurch and Upminster looks nailed on Tory surely?
    That's why Ilford N is better from a UKIP perspective - enough wwc voters still to give them a reasonable percentage but a general Labour trend to give them a lead. The thought of losing a seat they won even in 2005 would unsettle the Conservative leadership.

    Erith, and Eltham, are different but a collapse in Conservative chances to gain would also unsettle the Conservatives. After all if they can't make gains in 'booming' London where can they?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,902
    edited December 2013
    Osborne just been called Cameron's 'henchman' on 'Imagine' on Machiavelli on BBC1
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    HYUFD said:

    Osborne just been called Cameron's 'henchman' on 'Imagine' on Machiavelli on BBC1

    Sounds like an interesting programme.
  • MrsBMrsB Posts: 574
    A UKIP Tory coalition is NOT a good idea. God help us all if it happens. And I might even feel sorry for the Tories. Possibly.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    edmundintokyo said:

    Normal warnings about marginals polls: They're hard to do, because pollsters are used to getting balanced samples of the whole electorate but not so much single constituencies.

    But I think we need to start taking some of the ridiculous-sounding scenarios seriously, like an unpopular Labour leader winning a landslide on a share of the vote in the mid-thirties.

    What counts as a landslide? Sounds a bit like 2005 to me.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Interesting how power generation changes during the day.

    At about midday it was something like CCGT 45%, Coal 35%, Nuclear 14%, Wind 3%.

    Now it's Coal 48%, Nuclear 22%, CCGT 19%, Wind 6%.

    http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    SeanT said:

    NickPalmer said:

    MikeL said:

    AndyJS said:

    The double digit drops in Tory share don't match up too well with the national polls which show them down by about 4-5 points. They must be doing a lot better elsewhere to compensate.

    They won't be doing better elsewhere - Con vote change isn't going to vary that much.

    This is what happens if you prompt UKIP in the question - and remember 25% of people are getting UKIP listed FIRST in the voting options.

    Then in April / May 2015 they will see literally hundreds of news reports not mentioning UKIP - it's blindingly obvious what is going to happen.


    A question that will rear its head next year if the Labour lead persists is whether the Tories will persist with their 40-40 strategy (defend 40 seats, attack 40 seats). In a comparable situation in 2005, Labour started by supporting all its marginals but ended up pulling central support away from places like Broxtowe because they thought we were doomed and "safer" seats needed to be protected. If I was the Tory in their 41st safest seat, I'd be getting restless.

    If UKIP are doing this well in polls in late 2014, there will be INTENSE pressure on Cameron to submit to an electoral pact with Farage, whatever it takes. That's when it gets seriously interesting.
    Farage has already said he couldn't work with Cameron. What would Cameron offer them to make a pact in their interests?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,902
    AndyJS Yes, well worth catching on iplayer
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edmundintokyo said:

    Normal warnings about marginals polls: They're hard to do, because pollsters are used to getting balanced samples of the whole electorate but not so much single constituencies.

    But I think we need to start taking some of the ridiculous-sounding scenarios seriously, like an unpopular Labour leader winning a landslide on a share of the vote in the mid-thirties.

    2005 gave Labour a majority on Con 32%, Lab 35%, LD 22%.

    The 2013 locals were Con 25%, Lab 29%, LD 14%, UKIP 23%.

This discussion has been closed.