"Whoever ends up winning Iowa the WH2020 Dem nomination battle is now framed as between Bernie and Buttigieg"
What an extraordinary thread heading from OGH, seemingly totally ignoring the chances of Michael Bloomberg until he suddenly remembers him as an after thought, answering his own question as regards whether his huge financial investment into his campaign will make any difference ... "I don't know" is his equivocal reply. Well the betting market certainly has a much more positive view of Bloomberg's prospects where he is the second favourite with the Betfair Exchange to win the Democratic nomination with odds of 5.12, compared with Sanders on 2.65. Meanwhile Biden and Buttigieg languish in 3rd an 4th places both on odds of 7.5.
Wait till New Hampshire
Sorry, but since Bloomberg will be taking no part in the New Hampshire Primary and his rating in the popularity stakes will not be known until the "Super Tuesday" results are in, I really don't understand the point you are making.
If Buttigieg wins New Hampshire, and that is far from certain, then I'm not sure whether Bloomberg stands a chance.
Bloomberg needs a situation where no moderate has separated from the pack, and they are all seen as failing. If Buttigieg wins New Hampshire, Klobuchar leaves the race, and Biden continues to bleed support and money, then what's Bloomberg's pitch?
"I'm a self-made mega-billionaire and former New York mayor, and he's well-known in South Bend Indiana."
"The 'woke' country may be ready for a gay Prez, but those Rust Belt voters you need to win over aren't"? Although, I doubt Bloomberg could or would want to say that so directly. It would have to be very carefully insinuated by others at a deniable distance.
Are they ready for a charisma free elderly Jew who pretty much epitomises the elites that Trump rails against?
After the flamboyance of Trump, perhaps the country is more than ready for a charisma free pair of safe hands.
If Sanders surges, and Biden collapses, then Bloomberg and his effectively infinite war chest may well have a chance. We've never had a candidate with his level of resources before, so it's yet to be seen whether he can "Buy" the election, as if those who have to raise cash for the purpose aren't trying to do the same.
I would point out that Buttigieg won the counties in Iowa that went Obama-Trump...
Genuine question (the answer isn't obvious to me): does this have any predictive value given that the electorates are very different?
That is, do candidates tend to do better in presidential elections (relative to expectations for their party) in counties that they won during their party's caucus, than in counties that they lost during their party's caucus.
I would point out that Buttigieg won the counties in Iowa that went Obama-Trump...
Genuine question (the answer isn't obvious to me): does this have any predictive value given that the electorates are very different?
That is, do candidates tend to do better in presidential elections (relative to expectations for their party) in counties that they won during their party's caucus, than in counties that they lost during their party's caucus.
I presume we have posted that front page so Sunil knows he can travel from one end of Scotland to the other for £19......
Isn't the train shown one of the dreaded DMUs - Diesel Multiple Units - that British Rail first introduced in the late 50s and early 60s? Have they not been retired yet? God I can't believe I know this.....
I presume we have posted that front page so Sunil knows he can travel from one end of Scotland to the other for £19......
Isn't the train shown one of the dreaded DMUs - Diesel Multiple Units - that British Rail first introduced in the late 50s and early 60s? Have they not been retired yet? God I can't believe I know this.....
No, that is a BR Class 158, which were built between 1989 and 1992. They are probably due for replacement in the next 10 years or so.
Oh Buttigieg was caught lying by one of the moderators, on racism.
And now he is attacked on it.
A reminder on why Buttigieg is getting 0% with minorities.
Worth nothing that Buttigieg was second, behind Biden, with minorities in Iowa. He got 15%. Now, it's off a small base. And the minorities in Iowa are mostly Hispanic and Middle Eastern. But it's a reminder that he did better with minorities than Biden did with whites.
Oh Buttigieg was caught lying by one of the moderators, on racism.
And now he is attacked on it.
A reminder on why Buttigieg is getting 0% with minorities.
Worth nothing that Buttigieg was second, behind Biden, with minorities in Iowa. He got 15%. Now, it's off a small base. And the minorities in Iowa are mostly Hispanic and Middle Eastern. But it's a reminder that he did better with minorities than Biden did with whites.
Oh Buttigieg was caught lying by one of the moderators, on racism.
And now he is attacked on it.
A reminder on why Buttigieg is getting 0% with minorities.
Worth nothing that Buttigieg was second, behind Biden, with minorities in Iowa. He got 15%. Now, it's off a small base. And the minorities in Iowa are mostly Hispanic and Middle Eastern. But it's a reminder that he did better with minorities than Biden did with whites.
Oh Buttigieg was caught lying by one of the moderators, on racism.
And now he is attacked on it.
A reminder on why Buttigieg is getting 0% with minorities.
Worth nothing that Buttigieg was second, behind Biden, with minorities in Iowa. He got 15%. Now, it's off a small base. And the minorities in Iowa are mostly Hispanic and Middle Eastern. But it's a reminder that he did better with minorities than Biden did with whites.
Oh Buttigieg was caught lying by one of the moderators, on racism.
And now he is attacked on it.
A reminder on why Buttigieg is getting 0% with minorities.
Worth nothing that Buttigieg was second, behind Biden, with minorities in Iowa. He got 15%. Now, it's off a small base. And the minorities in Iowa are mostly Hispanic and Middle Eastern. But it's a reminder that he did better with minorities than Biden did with whites.
Oh Buttigieg was caught lying by one of the moderators, on racism.
And now he is attacked on it.
A reminder on why Buttigieg is getting 0% with minorities.
Worth nothing that Buttigieg was second, behind Biden, with minorities in Iowa. He got 15%. Now, it's off a small base. And the minorities in Iowa are mostly Hispanic and Middle Eastern. But it's a reminder that he did better with minorities than Biden did with whites.
Oh Buttigieg was caught lying by one of the moderators, on racism.
And now he is attacked on it.
A reminder on why Buttigieg is getting 0% with minorities.
Worth nothing that Buttigieg was second, behind Biden, with minorities in Iowa. He got 15%. Now, it's off a small base. And the minorities in Iowa are mostly Hispanic and Middle Eastern. But it's a reminder that he did better with minorities than Biden did with whites.
As Dr Johnson wisely observed trying to fix a language is like trying to bind the sea in chains.
The French ruined their language with all those silly symbols.
But you'll be all delighted to know that sometime in the next few weeks I'll be publishing a based on the thread on the Oxford comma and what it means for betting (on politics).
Sanders got hit on healthcare in the beggining and gun control at he end. Buttigieg got hit on his past political positions, his experience and racism, the last one from the moderator.
Biden did better than his last debates. Warren a muddle. Klobuchar was mostly emotional throughout the debate.
Are they saying the advice from the NCSC is wrong?
The US government is now floating the idea of aquiring a controlling interest in Nokia and Ericsson, so it should be abundantly clear to even our dimmest MPs that we should not trust any supplier. The only way out of this mess is open standards and systems and a much greater diversity of suppliers. Simply banning Huawei is going to leave us even more dependent on companies that do not deserve our trust either.
Doesn't Investor AB still hold a blocking stake in Ericsson?
Whether they do or not the Wallenbergs will have a view
I can see Trump getting 12% of the black vote against Buttigieg easily, but the turnout will fall by far more.
How on Earth is that "lying"? He did not say a single thing that was untrue. This is why I despise the far left. They are utterly unable to disagree with anyone on anything without the other person being smeared as a terrible person with immoral motives.
I can see Trump getting 12% of the black vote against Buttigieg easily, but the turnout will fall by far more.
How on Earth is that "lying"? He did not say a single thing that was untrue. This is why I despise the far left. They are utterly unable to disagree with anyone on anything without the other person being smeared as a terrible person with immoral motives.
Let me post this video that cuts Buttigieg's waffle, it's from the Trump campaign but whatever:
I can see Trump getting 12% of the black vote against Buttigieg easily, but the turnout will fall by far more.
How on Earth is that "lying"? He did not say a single thing that was untrue. This is why I despise the far left. They are utterly unable to disagree with anyone on anything without the other person being smeared as a terrible person with immoral motives.
I can see Trump getting 12% of the black vote against Buttigieg easily, but the turnout will fall by far more.
How on Earth is that "lying"? He did not say a single thing that was untrue. This is why I despise the far left. They are utterly unable to disagree with anyone on anything without the other person being smeared as a terrible person with immoral motives.
Let me post this video that cuts Buttigieg's waffle, it's from the Trump campaign but whatever:
I can see Trump getting 12% of the black vote against Buttigieg easily, but the turnout will fall by far more.
How on Earth is that "lying"? He did not say a single thing that was untrue. This is why I despise the far left. They are utterly unable to disagree with anyone on anything without the other person being smeared as a terrible person with immoral motives.
Let me post this video that cuts Buttigieg's waffle, it's from the Trump campaign but whatever:
He did not lie at all. The moderator said the rate for black drug arrests went up and he said the *overall* rate went down. That is not a lie and it doesn't matter how much you repeat the smear, it doesn't become one.
And everything you dismissed as "waffle" was actually some very important points about the disadvantages facing black people in America and what he proposes to do to change that. Legalization of marijuana and retroactive suspension of prison sentences is genuinely positive, red meat policy. But you don't care because the hard left doesn't actually care about making people's lives better, just about slamming people that aren't fully signed up to the tribe.
I can see Trump getting 12% of the black vote against Buttigieg easily, but the turnout will fall by far more.
How on Earth is that "lying"? He did not say a single thing that was untrue. This is why I despise the far left. They are utterly unable to disagree with anyone on anything without the other person being smeared as a terrible person with immoral motives.
Let me post this video that cuts Buttigieg's waffle, it's from the Trump campaign but whatever:
He did not lie at all. The moderator said the rate for black drug arrests went up and he said the *overall* rate went down. That is not a lie and it doesn't matter how much you repeat the smear, it doesn't become one.
And everything you dismissed as "waffle" was actually some very important points about the disadvantages facing black people in America and what he proposes to do to change that. Legalization of marijuana and retroactive suspension of prison sentences is genuinely positive, red meat policy. But you don't care because the hard left doesn't actually care about making people's lives better, just about slamming people that aren't fully signed up to the tribe.
A whole 40p a week.....the “better off” (sic) don’t do so well....
Tory does not like being wrong , you are a cracker. Has the NHS received their £350M a week yet. You concentrate and make a fool of yourself by proving what the SNP said is correct and what the Tories said is lies, fact that more people pay less tax in SCotland. Yet I have not seen one peep about Tory lies, where is the £350M a week the NHS was to get after Brexit, can you prove it is being paid. Go on show us it is only £350.001 million.
I presume we have posted that front page so Sunil knows he can travel from one end of Scotland to the other for £19......
Isn't the train shown one of the dreaded DMUs - Diesel Multiple Units - that British Rail first introduced in the late 50s and early 60s? Have they not been retired yet? God I can't believe I know this.....
All the modern trains are in the south east and London, we just get the dregs sent up, though we have to pay for the modern ones down south as well.
I presume we have posted that front page so Sunil knows he can travel from one end of Scotland to the other for £19......
Isn't the train shown one of the dreaded DMUs - Diesel Multiple Units - that British Rail first introduced in the late 50s and early 60s? Have they not been retired yet? God I can't believe I know this.....
All the modern trains are in the south east and London, we just get the dregs sent up, though we have to pay for the modern ones down south as well.
Come off it Malc, this is just daft. We have modern trains in Scotland!
I presume we have posted that front page so Sunil knows he can travel from one end of Scotland to the other for £19......
Isn't the train shown one of the dreaded DMUs - Diesel Multiple Units - that British Rail first introduced in the late 50s and early 60s? Have they not been retired yet? God I can't believe I know this.....
All the modern trains are in the south east and London, we just get the dregs sent up, though we have to pay for the modern ones down south as well.
Come off it Malc, this is just daft. We have modern trains in Scotland!
So why are Scotsman using old crap to try and highlight otherwise. What an absolute toilet roll that paper is, sooner it is bankrupt the better. Imagine they have lot of old tat in highlands mind you as will be minimum to little electrification. PS: It was a good soundbite mind you.
Comments
That is, do candidates tend to do better in presidential elections (relative to expectations for their party) in counties that they won during their party's caucus, than in counties that they lost during their party's caucus.
I'm guessing there must be data on this.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1225901404600049664?s=20
No wonder he is spending money on ads without his face in them.
A lay.
Harry Reid's political machine in Las Vegas is mobilising for Buttigieg.
Reid may have retired and is old and ill but he still controls the machine, and it's worth a couple of %.
I would have thought that Warren would be the logical recipient there.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/09/15/harry-reid-lied-about-mitt-romneys-taxes-hes-still-not-sorry/
But still Reid's Unions I say they are worth around 5%.
They're malfunctioning and also there is a large echo.
This tweet aged well
Probably it's perhaps they know it's "now or never".
The debate has degenerated back to a Q&A session.
But he gets tired quickly, so lets see in an hour how he's doing.
Someone is jinxing the Democrats.
Compare 4:40 in the first debate here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cX7hni-zGD8 to now.
http://theconversation.com/how-parents-resources-shape-their-childrens-attitudes-to-the-future-100625
I think he did a hair transplant surgery in the 1980's.
But Biden's speech has improved vastly on this debate, so far.
https://twitter.com/RupertMyers/status/1225965906527948802?s=20
Iron Oxide is also linked to Dementia.
And now I know.
(Im looking at the ABC YouTube. The candidates aren't very impressive from a physical point of view)
And now he is attacked on it.
A reminder on why Buttigieg is getting 0% with minorities.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/botox-hair-plugs-and-veneers-biden-could-escape-the-cosmetic-surgery-scrutiny-hillary-clinton-endured
Trump is also thought to have one, albeit by a different method:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/men/style/scalp-reduction-barbaric-hair-loss-treatment-said-used-donald/
https://youtu.be/13OypBRrwv8
And why he is so important to denounce on a Debate ?
https://twitter.com/MattMetcalf/status/1225974405865627650
Anyway the Iowa Caucus right now is as credible as any Third World election.
But my point stands. He's clearly not doing as badly with minorities as you claim.
And tonight you saw why.
Still, 538 thinks he did pretty well. We'll see in the post debate polls.
Sanders got hit on healthcare in the beggining and gun control at he end.
Buttigieg got hit on his past political positions, his experience and racism, the last one from the moderator.
Biden did better than his last debates.
Warren a muddle.
Klobuchar was mostly emotional throughout the debate.
https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1225974726985646080
I can see Trump getting 12% of the black vote against Buttigieg easily, but the turnout will fall by far more.
https://twitter.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1225975303106912256
Buttigieg was just waffling endlessly, but 30 seconds of video is all you need to get him.
And everything you dismissed as "waffle" was actually some very important points about the disadvantages facing black people in America and what he proposes to do to change that. Legalization of marijuana and retroactive suspension of prison sentences is genuinely positive, red meat policy. But you don't care because the hard left doesn't actually care about making people's lives better, just about slamming people that aren't fully signed up to the tribe.
https://twitter.com/EoinHiggins_/status/1225990601528823813
Go on show us it is only £350.001 million.
PS: It was a good soundbite mind you.