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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sanders’ odds are far too short for Iowa: no-one should be odd
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sanders’ odds are far too short for Iowa: no-one should be odds-on
The Iowa caucus is one of those things that no-one in their right mind would invent if it didn’t already exist. As a democratic process, it flouts goodness knows how many rules of good practice, from high barriers to participation to non-secret voting to a lack of consistent process. However, it’s possible to get too precious about process. The caucus does exist and has survived, whatever its flaws, because it tends to work.
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I should add, though, that I'm at a disadvantage in talking about the Democrats as most of my US political contacts are Republicans.
https://www.skyscrapercity.com/showpost.php?p=166117432&postcount=22902
And this follows yesterday's reports that: Downing Street anger over 'ill-disciplined' Javid’s attempt to hijack HS2 decision
Boris Johnson’s relationship with Sajid Javid under renewed strain after Chancellor's intervention in rail project row
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/01/30/downing-street-anger-ill-disciplined-javids-attempt-hijack-hs2/
So taken together we have HS2 going ahead and a reminder that for Number 10, as with Trump, Truman was wrong. It is amazing what can be accomplished provided Saj gives Boris the credit. And by Boris, we mean Dominic Cummings.
My best guess is they will shy away from Sanders as being unelectable come November.
*light cloud, moderate breeze, just below zero is predicted
https://twitter.com/Albert_HEO/status/1223420195106103297?s=20
'Don't do that, it puts us in a bad light' isn't the greatest moral bar to clear but it's a start I guess.
Hope the wind dies down soon.
https://twitter.com/murdo_fraser/status/1223382965255843842?s=20
He's still not clarified whether he thought the 'celebrations' being conducted by Scotland's leading Holocaust denier was a good thing.
Hope your wife returns to full strength soon.
Hospitals can be dangerous places.
haven't been on for a while, bur hope all goers well at home.
Murkowski framed her vote as a brave one to protect the Chief Justice from a Democratic effort to “drag the Supreme Court into the fray, while attacking the Chief Justice.” She continued: “I will not stand for nor support that effort.”...
After it became apparent they'd lost, the SNP's pledge to respect the result for a generation mysteriously disappeared.
Mr. Jonathan, a great many things.
But it's worth also remembering the 'good old days' when pro-EU politicians campaigned for a referendum and then reneged when in office. We didn't leap from the EU in a single moment of pique. It was a long road, and much of it was paved by the political class (which was mostly pro-EU).
Politicians should remember that as they go forward.
https://twitter.com/UK_Together/status/506899714923843584?s=20
Ironically, the rest of the UK (including Wales and England, which mostly voted Leave in 2016) would probably still be in.
Triggering Article 50 before we had a firm idea of what we wanted, May having her very clever election during that period, and stupidly going along with the EU's sequencing (which was itself a pretty dodgy approach to take. Proved effective, but didn't exactly get the goodwill overflowing).
I do not see you demanding Boris go die in a ditch, get a grip and at least stop using made up bollox about one comment.
PS You could also add "Lie down in front of the bulldozers and thousands of other rhetorical statements by politicians.
I await your evidence of this great pledge.
It's also a shade ironic to complain of a lack of coming together whilst referring to the racists and xenophobes of the other side (albeit with the 'minority' caveat).
On a kind of related note, I agree with John Denham that Starmer's apparent desire to carve England into pieces rather than have a proper Parliament might not be wise.
I have just bought a Mk.6 Golf GTI off ebay in an act which has a whiff of à la recherche du temps perdu about it.
I was at the press conference when Boris launched the idea (and during which I though he seemed to be lining up a larger Stansted as his fallback), and when he was asked what would happen to Heathrow and its employing much of west London, and he genuinely didn’t appear to have an answer. He blustered for a bit and then said something about making it a “regional airport”; within a few days in the media he was talking about decommissioning and the opportunity to build tons of new homes.
Good metaphor, though probably not in the way the Express imagines it to be.
Once in a generation:
https://twitter.com/cookie_trader/status/1222113304035954690
Mr. Jonathan, they're certainly obnoxious. That doesn't make it wise to pretend that either 52% or 48% of the population is either a xenophobe or a traitor, or that such massive groups can be summarised neatly as entirely this or that (excepting the voting decision made in 2016).
It can be comforting to paint those who vote differently as stupid or wicked. After all, one is moral, and intelligent. If the other side are morons and reprobates then the argument wasn't lost, it was simply that too many people aren't clever enough. The alternative is considering that either one was on the wrong side, or that the campaign was a failure (the latter is certainly true, both campaigns were bloody awful).
The vast majority of people neither care as much as the media sometimes suggests, nor are stuck to their views absolutely.
As we wake up to a first day outside the EU I have no great feeling of liberation but I am pleased the dial has moved on and we must seek to reduce the hate, and make real efforts to come together, as we just have to make a success of it
I fully understand that a great many remainers are really hurting and I get no pleasure from that and have sympathy with their distress, but do not excuse unnecessary abusive language to those leavers who succeeded in taking us out of the EU
Likewise, I utterly condemn the politics of Farage, and also urge leavers to stop provoking those who are struggling with this event and seek a fair compromise both with remainers and the EU to see the UK and the EU move on to a new and rather different relationship
Yes, it was a nice idea in someone’s mind, but totally implausible in practice. Boris stuck with the idea long after it was pointed out to him that it was never plausibly going to happen.
LHR is where it is, and the only plausible way forward from here is expanding it. If we’d spend the last decade building the third runway instead of arguing about it, millions of tonnes of carbon emissions would have saved, generated as they are by having hundreds of planes flying around in circles every day waiting to get their landing slot.
Occasionally see stuff from people wanting to 'bring the EU down' or somesuch nonsense. One thing I disliked about the EU was that it gave us influence others, and others influence over us. If others choose to be part of the EU, or to leave it, that's up to them. I have no desire to try and break up the EU. We should concern ourselves with the British national interest.
I recently submitted an application for a training contract at a law firm although the deadline has not passed yet.
Yesterday I noticed that I’ve made a error on the dates of one of the more minor positions on my CV from 5 years ago.
Do I contact the firm and ask to correct the error, drawing attention to it, or do I leave it?
Unless you’re very good or very lucky you’ll be making a lot of applications so chalk it as a detail learning curve.
1. Nobody won, nobody lost.
2. We just implemented a majority view achieved in a democratic referendum.
3. Terms of abuse - Remainer, Remainiac, Brexiteer, gammon, thickoes - have been buried in an old slate mine in north Wales.
4. Antagonism for antagonisms sake, whilst fun, needs to be dialled back from 11 to 1.
5. The SNP is still fair game however.
However, the SNP is at peak Indyref2 now because of brexit and has just seen a poll go 51/49 in favour, but it would be very surprising that if in all of this turmoil opinion in Scotland had not moved towards the independence movement
By Autumn 2021 the relationship with the EU should have been resolved to a large extent and that will then play into a referendum including whether a Berwick to Carlisle border becomes a reality causing huge disruption to Scotland's trade with the UK and of course the issue with Scotland rejoining the EU will not necessarily be as seemless as they hope, especially if fishing is handed back to Brussels
I have grown up with Scots Nationalism and it must be remembered that even if we were still in the EU, the SNP would be agitating for it as it is their DNA. I am convinced that they would lose any referendum but I do not deny they have a legitimate case for it, especially if they win Holyrood 2021
Enjoy your weight gain!
Those numbers for Boris Johnson north of the border are shocking. His ratings are so low he must be widely disliked even amongst Conservatives and Unionists.