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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The big political betting developments this weekend will not about Brexit – but Iowa
We are almost there. Just 3 days to go before Iowa – the first State to decide on its democratic party nomination holds its unique selection processes. What makes this important is that the outcome has, historically, had an impact on the other states that follow.
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Not sure anyone knew he was still in it, TBH.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/31/trump-iowa-socialism-bernie-sanders
You'd have thought Trump would want Bernie to do well in Iowa.
https://twitter.com/thecrownnetflix/status/1223262356496699394?s=21
Biden like Romney is not liked, he can only win if the 75% of Democrats who don't really like him decide on an alternative, and most of them voted Sanders last time so they might vote Sanders again.
I have to wait unti the Selzer poll on Sunday, but as of now I think Sanders wins. He is either leading or close behind with momentum behind him.
WTF?
The Conservatives won the election and one of the key tests will be the attitude of Labour voters...
Did that scene with Churchill in the first episode where he turned up last at the wedding happen in real life?
I’m not sure how I’m going to cope with the next season of The Crown with Mrs Thatcher being played by a sex therapist.
In 2020 Bernie might win too.
America is ripe for change, that's how Trump won.
It reminds me of 1976-80.
America wanted change then, Carter and Reagan were selling the same thing but with a different style, in 1976 Carter won because Reagan wasn't the nominee, in 1980 Reagan beat Carter because he won the nomination.
They both followed the exact same policies but Reagan was a sunnier character, and luckier too.
https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1223231325865422848
If it's a tie nationally I expect Sanders to beat Biden in Iowa easily because Iowa doesn't have African Am.
I can't remember a more dead cert re-election except perhaps Ronald Reagan although Reagan was in more trouble than Trump at this stage.
2017 Jeremy Corbyn nearly won
2020 Jeremy Corbyn didn't nearly win
This is despite twice winning the party leadership easily
I do wonder when push comes to shove if enough Dems will rally to Bernie or if he will be overtaken by one of the other candidates. If enough Dems support him, he still has to garner the support of the middle ground of America, which may not be a simple process.
Erm. OK.
https://twitter.com/TheNewEuropean/status/1223170197823139841?s=20
Reagan net approval at this point +17
Trump net approval -9
Unemployment is rising in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. All states Trump won by small margins.
That being said, I think the Libertarian candidate (oh please be John McAfee) will do much less well this time around, which probably adds two percentage points to Trump's share.
2017 Corbyn won only 4 more seats than Brown did in 2010
Whenever I see this bleak uttering from you I will be moved to reply in this vein.
Carter did move to a tighter monetary policy (as did Callaghan in the UK) and some deregulation, but the economic policies were still pretty different. Similarly on spending priorities, environmental issues, aspects of foreign policy etc.
The non-Sanders Democrats need to appreciate fast that if they don’t unite around a candidate, any candidate, he’s going to be hard to stop in the way that the never-Trumps found out in 2016. In an open field, all a polarising figure needs is continuing disunity among his opponents.
It's a reflection of the Betfair price.
Add in the fact I wasn’t allowed to go to football matches as they weren’t very welcoming to people like me.
Plus you can change your house, name, occupation, nationality, wife, and even your gender but you can never change the team you support.
https://twitter.com/DawnHFoster/status/1223160098220056577?s=20
I expect when the financial accounts for Liverpool are released after this season they're going to look pretty darn healthy.
A remarkable turnaround from the Hicks and Gillett days.
The other 5 or 6 top Democratic candidates
Labour, LibDems, SNP and other assorted anti Brexit parliamentry parties when forming a strategy to defeat Johnson over Brexit.
I can muster arguments for everything from a comfortable Trump win, to an easy Democratic one.
Trump is relatively unpopular. I think his net approval is worse than all but one other President at this stage.
But then again, the Democrats might well pick someone equally voter repellant.
The economy is slowing, and much of the rust belt is probably in recession.
But the last three years, thanks to some aggressive fiscal easing, have generally been good economically for the US. And polls suggest Donald Trump is well regarded for his handling of the economy.
There is a continual whiff of scandal around the adminstration. Not enough to shake the base, obviously. But perhaps enough to cause a few moderate Republicans to stay at home.
But the same was true of the Clinton adminstration. Voters are often very forgiving if they think you are on their side.
My guess is that we'll see relatively few states change hands. I think the traditional bellwethers of Ohio and Florida are now solidly Republican. Other than Virginia, and maybe Nevada, I can't see any of the existing Democratic states flipping.
The Republicans, though, need to defend Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Iowa. If African American turnout is up sharply, they might struggle in North Carolina too. (And Florida, which I tagged as safely Republican, is about to see a 25% increase in it's black voting population...)
So I don't know.
Dems are bonkers.
Taking your line:
Trump is relatively unpopular. I think his net approval is worse than all but one other President at this stage.
I think a better line may be that Trump is Polarising, just like Marmite.
Those that don't like him are far more vocal and therefore more easily heard. Is the level of dislike measured at a higher level than it truly exists as it has a high volume?
Trump should be the easiest incumbent to beat for a good while. I am far from persuaded that the Dems know who will or how to do it.
It's Trump net approval by state.
There are a couple of surprising numbers in there, in particular Georgia and Alaska.
Dems are idiots.
But I think most Presidents are pretty polarising figures: Clinton, "W" Bush and Obama were all loathed to irrational levels by their opponents.
The delegates Bloomberg might win won't make up for the delegates he's removing from Biden in particular - below 15% the Democrat nomination is a stepwise process.
In addition I think his entrance to the race has boosted Sanders as he kind of makes the point about Billionaires and so forth better than a Sanders ad ever could.
If Labour were to have a leader with a net +5 favorability rating on the eve of GE polling day, they could well win.
https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/1223258716893523968/photo/1
i guess there's no fool like an old, megarich fool.
(That being said, Bloomberg really gets under Trump's skin, which I enjoy.)
https://twitter.com/JimMFelton/status/1223282469413232645?s=20
For the record, I think Sanders should be no more than a 35-40% chance to win Iowa. All the polls point to a very, very close race, and I question how many second choices he gets.
Had he not actually run, and just gone ahead with his plan to spend money to help get Trump out, he'd be a hero to half of America. As it is....
But agreed, it could be very close - which is why improving Sanders chances at the margin is not a good idea.
I held no love for them, I despise Farage, but I voted for them purely to send a protest message to get Theresa May out and ensure the MPs next time put forward a more suitable candidate than May.
The message got through. May went and was replaced by Boris. Job done. The Brexit Party's job was done at that point.
Weeks before the election, Reagan trailed Carter in most polls. In the Gallup poll on October 26, Jimmy Carter was at 47 percent and Ronald Reagan at 39 percent.
Trump's going to win bigger in the Electoral College than last time.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-semi-first-delivery-date-jk-moving/
0-60 5sec.
Which is not particularly impressive, until you look at it...
Indeed, I'd reckon that Buttigieg is probably the biggest beneficiary of Bloomberg voters needing to find new homes.
Why is that? A court ruling perhaps?
Are the Democrats stronger or weaker than 2016? Probably weaker (unless they find a star)
So I'm reckoning on another 4 glorious years.
I'd rather think I am responsible for ensuring that as of tomorrow he is redundant and can fade away into history. He would have remained in Brussels without my vote anyway, he got there for the prior elections without it, but my vote helped ensure that as of tomorrow he is gone and will not be missed.
Had I and those like me voted for May there's every chance Farage would never have left the European Parliament.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bmw-mini-exclusive/exclusive-bmw-delays-next-generation-mini-due-to-brexit-uncertainty-costs-idUSKBN1ZU2DD?il=0
BMW (BMWG.DE) has delayed the development of its next generation Mini as it seeks to cut costs and as uncertainty over Britain’s trade relations with the European Union make long-term investment decisions harder.
Thanks for the useful summary of thoughts. And of course I don't know either. I also know that you guys don't do it this way - you're data driven - but I am intuiting my way into the head of an American who is neither a partisan Republican nor one of Trump's dreaded "base", and who voted for him queasily in 2016, maybe disliking HRC, maybe rather intrigued and entertained by him despite their better instincts, hoping that he would prove OK in office.
So, I'm in there now - in that head - and I'm getting close to breaking point. I keep making allowances for him but I know - deep down I know - that this is a joke and a sick one at that, that this guy is unfit to be my president on just about every level, that to most of the world he is a figure of fun, at best, and I'm about to flip. Perhaps I don't even know it yet but come November, come the day. I'm either voting Dem or, if I can't stomach the Dem candidate, I'm staying at home.
It's a "dam breaking" kind of thing, seemingly sudden when it happens but a long time brewing, which if it does happen with a sufficient number of people like "me" - and it does not have to be that large to be sufficient - will deal him a crushing loss. That's my call and I'm hoping for EC supremacy markets coming out with the consensus assumption that it will be a tight race, so that I can sell him and clean up.
Indeed, I could well imagine a situation where the Democrat and Republican vote shares are reversed, but the Democrats end up with more EC votes than in 2016.
(To demonstrate this, just do a Monte Carlo simulation on the 2016 results where you randomly jiggle the individual state results by a percent or two either way, while keeping the national vote shares the same. You'll find that the actual result is nowhere near the center point. Trump was extremely lucky to win a bunch of states by tiny margins.)
Hopefully it passes.
Goodbye and good riddance Farage. I for one will not miss him.
Car manufacturers don't have a clue at the minute how to deal with the massive transformations in their industry with regards to electric vehicles . . . and it doesn't help that politicians are still hesitating about whether or when to ban petrol and diesel engines . . . so companies investing in electric vehicles are going ahead like yesterday's news of major investment, while traditional companies are pausing before committing themselves.
Its got nothing to do with Brexit but that's a handy excuse to wait and see rather than "we don't know how to deal with our own industry at the minute".
Because it's important that he -rather than his successor- is in charge when the hangover from the Trump tax & spend kicks in. (Trump's fiscal policies are probably even looser than Jeremy corbyn's)
The model was supposed to be replaced in 2022 and it's now due to continue to 2024 (or beyond depending on the take up of electric ).
Brexit is a convenient excuse to justify hesitation in this nation, but the hesitation is occuring across the continent.