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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Huawei is a massive personal gamble by Boris
Cabinet opponents give up hope of persuading Boris Johnson to ban Huawei from the 5G network, saying it’s “a done deal”https://t.co/ExM4KRquz9
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Let's give state secrets to China instead"
We have a British PM who trusts the Chinese Communist party more than he trusts the EU or the US.
(Actually this thing has had so much exposure, the risk of Huawei doing something clandestine with Britain's 5G through their systems has to be quite low. The Chinese are likely to take more obscure route)
So yes.
The Chinese could not, even if they wanted to, shut down the reactor.
Or threaten to do so.
My own pet theory is that the US government has a lot of leverage over the likes of Nokia, Ericsson, and Samsung*, but essentially none over Huawei. It's not Chinese spying the US fears, but the threat of networks "going dark" as US alligned suppliers are cut out of networks.
Certainly in the case of Samsung the South Korean government always does what the US wants. I have basically zero doubt that US intelligence community can run riot over a Samsung based network. I suspect they also get a lot of support from Finland and Sweden, but probably to a lesser degree. I also think it very likely that the US government has agents working for all of those companies, recruiting an agent in Huawei is likely to be much harder for them.
I realise that there is a political dimension to this decision, but all other things being equal I would always pick the supplier where our people have examined the code over the ones where they haven't.
* For US suppliers, not that there really are any serious 5G network players, you can simply assume they have already received a National Security Letter and are betraying their customers en masse.
If they can control our infrastructure they don’t need to do anything, they can simply point out that they can shut down our internet unless...
Essentially, it allows the Chinese to determine the internet of the future. When you look at what they are doing now with the capabilities they have now, why on earth is Britain siding with such a nasty illiberal and authoritarian regime, which does not even remotely pay lip service to any of our values at all, the law and which has repeatedly shown its utter ruthlessness?
Why?
Money? Stupidity? A desire to stick it to the US?
But Johnson probably wont be around to face the music when the spying becomes a major problem.
The Chinese Communist Party shares none of our values, will not obey our laws and is utterly ruthless. I have no doubt that if it controls our internet it will use that leverage for its interests and only for its interests, regardless of British interests. It may say now that it wants a friendly relationship but, as the former Australian PM put it, “intent can change in a heartbeat” and if Chinese intent becomes malign, we’re stuffed.
As a small example, look at the worrying stories about how Chinese students here who are opposed to the Beijing regime are being harassed or spied on or attacked by those loyal to Beijing. Imagine what a country with much greater control over our infrastructure could do to those in this country who say or do something the Chinese state does not like. Or indeed the pressure it would put on authorities in this country - all behind the scenes of course.
I don’t much trust the US but I absolutely do not trust China. It is a vile state. Putting our vital infrastructure under Chinese control is a risk too far to save a couple of billion quid and 2 years delay to find an alternative as Canada and Korea and Australia and New Zealand and even Vietnam are doing.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-23282308
But more broadly the whole Chinese/not-Chinese argument really falls down when so many suppliers of hardware and software are involved in any deployed system, nevermind where it is all manufactured which is another issue, no matter what the badge on the box says.
And I'd still pick the system our people have poked around in.
China is not our enemy, in the post Brexit world we will have to dance to their tune, so might as well get on with it.
This is like getting advice about fire safety from an arsonist.
#ihatefuckingtrainsireallydo.
All those worrying about Trump’s “America First” policy seem awfully sanguine about China’s equally firm and ruthless “China First” policy.
If you haven’t watched The Windermere Children (on BBC2 tonight) worth seeing. Beautifully acted and written. It let the story speak for itself rather than overdose on the emotion.
If I don’t post again it will be down to the blasted Chinese reading my posts. And they can also stuff their stupid virus where the sun don’t shine.
Night all.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1221884678745051142?s=20
Four more MAGA years.
Think of it as the Opium Wars, in reverse, with the Chinese selling us an addictive product.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/27/keir-starmer-accuses-of-boris-johnson-of-doing-a-runner-on-huawei
Anyone telling you "just buy this kit, from these guys" is selling snake oil.
This is a very difficult issue and the only reasonable approach is to trust nobody.
Also no word from the actual Leader of the Opposition, or (eg) his shadow home sec? Just the one front bench spokesman whose role ceases to exist at the end of the week...
The most optimistic reason why we should not be allowing Huawei tech in the network is because at a future point they will look to use anti competitive practices to try and achieve technological dominance in this sector, as is the target in all the others. Plenty of speeches have been given more or less to this effect.
The more realistic view is because the prevalent view in the Communist Party is that China is engaged in a slow multi generational conflict with the West. And achieving cultural, economic and racial hegemony is the only goal that matters.
GCHQ say they can “manage the risk”, just give us more people and money. Personally I’d rather see that talent building private enterprise rather rather the bloating the egos and budgets of civil servants.
Boris seems to be naively following the same path as Osborne with respect to China (see Evening Standard exhortations). The same Osborne who was widely derided by polite and informed society in Asia for humiliating his great nation by pathetically prostrating himself before the Chinese communist party (all adjectives in that sentence are ones I heard first hand).
There’s not a great deal where Trump and I have common ground but his policy stance on China is spot on, even if the execution has in some regards been flawed. For some reason the British establishment just doesn’t understand the Dragon.
Perhaps once Brexit is a distant memory Tom Tugenhardt might be the one.
1. Is it a change to now involve them, or are they already involved?
2. Did the expert security assessment say can’t be managed, or easy to manage?
Expert security assessment 1 vacuous drivel in The Sun and Daily Mail 0
Meanwhile Snake Flu causing financial meltdown posters on here said it couldn’t. And British press embarrass themselves on mass by claiming Andrew, the Royal allowed to step down from duty but keep his titles, avoiding FBI when FBI have claimed no such thing...
To anyone paying attention, the engagement policy has demonstrably failed. There is a woolly minded view among many that China has opened their economic system up to capitalism. Rubbish. In China the term private sector doesn’t mean what you think it does. Nor for that matter does the term state sector but that’s another story.
Just because bad decisions were made in the past, it certainly does not mean we should continue with them. Especially since digital technology now acts as the spinal chord of our economy and security state, in a way that was simply not true at the turn of the century.
Prime minister says vote will be held on 19 September after ‘positive, factual and robust’ campaign"
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/28/new-zealand-election-jacinda-ardern-sets-september-date-for-poll
If the concern is that the Chinese are able to more easily spy on us... well if they are we probably won't find out about it? And the link between that and the public getting angry with Boris seems tenuous.
The link between the modern Tory party and national security leaks is well established in any case; Fox, Patel, Williamson. Public seem relaxed about it all.
Whoops...
Cold start to the day.
I look forward to the moment when one of the two major parties is led by someone who isn't an imbecile.
https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/
Sunil probably already knows about it (!) but it basically gives up to the minute information on what trains are where on Britain’s railway network.
So I idly investigated the number of trains per day at Rugeley Trent Valley - which is not on the busiest part of the WCML - and after several attempts at counting I think it comes to 391.
That’s 16 an hour, which is rather a lot. At times, it’s much busier than that, especially during the morning, at lunchtime (when, to my surprise, I found there was a lot of freight going through) and in the evening.
It rather gives the lie to the claims of Joe Rukin that there is lots of space to spare on the railway.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7934583/Thats-b-s-Rebecca-Long-Bailey-says-Jeremy-Corbyns-catastrophic-election-defeat-does.html
Did nor Huawei start supplying BT etc in 2005? Hands up whoever bought a Huawei smartphone?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-51263799
If we exclude Huawei, we are effectively spending several billion to subsidise European and US manufacturers, while significantly hampering telecoms related development in the UK for a number of years.
On the other hand, contributing to Huawei’s market dominance might mean we don’t have realistic alternatives next time around, either. China is able to subsidise the development of whole industries in a manner simply not possible in the west.
It is not a simple decision.
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2020/01/weve-avoided-making-up-our-minds-about-how-to-deal-with-china-hence-the-huawei-quandary.html
We're not part of any Chinese hinterland and there is business to be done.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2020_New_Zealand_general_election
Aces - Sandgren 27 / Federer 5
Winners - Sandgren 73 / Federer 44
Unforced errors - Sandgren 53 / Federer 56
Total points won - Sandgren 161 / Federer 160
They did the same thing squeezing global steel producers out of business, and using every political and diplomatic lever possible to secure the most promising copper resources in emerging markets. They did this because of their military value. Don't be fooled by any other explanation. The same is true in the high tech sector.
I am holding onto a faint hope that Boris is just throwing Art of the Deal back at Trump and in the end he'll negotiate this away in exchange for something else. Am not holding my breath though.
And asking us to do the same for them at significant cost.
It would be a great deal simpler if we had our own domestic industry, but we don't. And the likelihood of our developing one is effectively nil.
Or punting them down the road for your successor to deal wirh. Boris doesn't have that option, with 5G or HS2.
... stifles giggle.