Mr. T, a friend of mine (upon hearing I was very loosely using some Cornishness for a certain part of a fantasy land) elsewhere suggested I use the apparently real place name of Ventongimps. Research has also uncovered a village called Mousehole.
I don't suppose your thriller will be set in Ventongimps?
An old friend of my dad's lived in Mousehole (pronounced, from memory, something like mouzzul), and we used to go there every couple of years. We turned up one Easter to discover he had died the day before.
Oh, and for the cartophiles amongst us, the Ordnance Survey sea level datum was set from the nearby Newlyn Harbour.
There is something about Cornwall that is unutterably beautiful. History and wilderness at what must have seemed the very edge of the world. I love it, even if it is a bit of a swine to walk around.
Have you done a few days on the coastal path? I'm guessing yes? I did Portreath all the way to Cape Cornwall (four days), on a bright, cold, sunny week in early Spring, 1997; the best moment was actually in Zennor, which is where I first saw Comet Hale Bopp - literally poised over the pinnacles of Zennor church, one starry midnight.
Absolutely spine tingling. Yes, Cornwall is special. There's nowhere like it on God's good green earth.
What a coincidence — Ruth's Coastal Walk just happens to be at Land's End at the moment:
The UK will not leave the EU. The balance of forces is overwhelmingly against such an outcome.
The question is how long can that mottley list of reprobates remain unified. Should 'ever closer union' take place nobody in this country envisages us joining the Eurozone. Over what will be a short period of time we will then see ourselves suspended in Euro limbo land where we will have all the disadvantages of remaining (and few of the advantages) and none of the advantages of being outside its stranglehold.
Add to that that we will likely suffer some serious blows through QMV in the meantime and given the inherent scepticism to the EU I think it is inevitable that we will reach a point where withdrawal is the only logical option. It may take a decade it may take a generation but we will leave.
I was reporting this here last year, when Richard N and others were insisting that the EU would be ready to make major concessions to keep us on board. They're bored with Cameron's poses and flounces. We want to stay? Fine. We want to leave? OK. We want massive changes as a condition for staying? Forget it.
What a strange post in response to a summary of an opinion poll. You seem to be making the massive error of assuming that the concessions obtainable are somehow related to public opinion in other EU states, indeed to public opinion in minor EU states.
Nick, the EU doesn't work like that. Surely you of all people should know that?
It does so work like that. Passing a treaty of the full EU is very, very hard. It has a vast number of veto points, many of them with very little to lose for vetoing it. It only gets done if nearly everyone agrees with it. Even then it risks getting blown up by popular opposition in a single large member state, or repeated popular opposition in a small member state.
rcs1000 He did defy Miliband and vote for an EU referendum, but perhaps John Cryer, Austin Mitchell and Jeremy Corbyn would have been better examples. In total 19 Labour MPs voted for a referendum, plus LD Adrian Sanders and Caroline Lucas (although I believe the Greens want to stay in) http://liberalconspiracy.org/2011/10/24/up-to-10-labour-mps-could-defy-eu-whip/
AndyJS Yes Gravity is the best film I saw this year, and while no 2001 it not only had tremendous views of space but also had some insights into life's fragility!
Opinium found that just 26% of British voters regard the EU as, overall, a "good thing" compared with 42% who say it is a "bad thing". In Poland 62% say it is a good thing and 13% bad; in Germany 55% good and 17% bad, and in France 36% good and 34% bad.
When asked about the UK's contribution to the EU, there is little enthusiasm among our partners, and little to suggest they will go out of their way to keep us in. Just 9% of Germans and 15% of French people think the UK is a positive influence on the EU, with more Poles, 33%, taking that view.
Only 16% of Germans and 26% of French people back the idea of a special deal being struck for the UK. Cameron has said he intends to renegotiate the UK terms of entry and hold an in/out referendum if he wins a majority at the next election, offering the new arrangement to the British people in a referendum.
The idea of Britain leaving the EU does not appear to worry our European partners unduly. Just 24% of French voters said a UK exit would have a negative effect, compared with 36% of Germans and 51% of Poles.
I was reporting this here last year, when Richard N and others were insisting that the EU would be ready to make major concessions to keep us on board. They're bored with Cameron's poses and flounces. We want to stay? Fine. We want to leave? OK. We want massive changes as a condition for staying? Forget it.
Perfect. I really hope they don't give any ground. Cameron tries to be reasonable, EU refuses to compromise, we leave. Sounds like a winning formula.
The UK will not leave the EU. The balance of forces is overwhelmingly against such an outcome. In favour of staying in we have
The Labour Party The Liberal Democrats The SNP Plaid Cymru The NI parties, with the exception of Sinn Fein The City The CBI The TUC The EEF and most other large employer organisations Foreign investors - Nissan, Honda etc etc UK companies with significant trade with the EU The US government Other EU governments The Universities Most local authorities The Guardian, Mirror, FT, Independent Quite a number of senior Tories, including John Major, Kenneth Clarke and (we must assume) David Cameron
In favour of coming out we have
UKIP The majority of the Tory party The Sun, Mail, Times & Telegraph and, er..........
Withdrawal is a chimera and will not happen.
So the "balance of forces" are more important than what voters think, which is that 50% or thereabouts want to pull out.
EdinTokyo It depends on how it is spun, and what Merkel is willing to concede, but it does at least suggest a majority of public opinion is sceptical of the EU, but not downright opposed to it
I think one of the reasons why HS2 isn't very popular around the country is that the first place to benefit from it will be Birmingham and that city is never very high in the popularity ratings as, for example, we saw on this blog yesterday evening.
'The UK will not leave the EU. The balance of forces is overwhelmingly against such an outcome. In favour of staying in we have'
Shame, you forgot about voters.
Ever since the UK joined the EU in 1973 opinion polls have consistently shown a majority for leaving. The only time when this was not the case was in 1975, when voters were actually faced with making a decision on the issue. Suddenly withdrawal did not seem such a great idea.I have no doubt that the same would happen again were there to be another referendum.
Thats just simply untrue as the Mori series linked below demonstrates opinion has swayed back and forward throughout the period.
'Ever since the UK joined the EU in 1973 opinion polls have consistently shown a majority for leaving. The only time when this was not the case was in 1975, when voters were actually faced with making a decision on the issue. '
After only two years in the Common Market voters thought that remaining in a common trading area with the wealthiest countries in Europe would be good for the UK.
The decision was based on what was on offer then, without the following 38 years of baggage..
The EU polls also show a clear NO to withdrawal if Cameron achieves a renegotiation. This decade will probably have 3 key referendums on the constitution, on electoral reform and AV, the Union and Scottish independence, and EU membership, in political terms it is the biggest decade for determining our nation's future direction since WW2. Personally, as with AV, I expect no change in any of the referendums, although I think the EU referendum will be the tightest with just a few points in it
Problems with reading a lot into that polling: 1) Middle option bias. 2) It leaves the voters to fill in the blanks about what they'd like the renegotiation to achieve, when in reality the voters wouldn't get much that they actually wanted, and might not want much of what they did get, like the right to shittier working conditions if the UK opted out of the Social Chapter again.
That is particularly true with some of the EU polling which offers a mythological scenario of remaining in the EU on a solely trading basis. Given there is about as much likelihood of that ever happening in reality as David Cameron joining UKIP then basically the poll figures are void. If people understood that the only way to get our relationship with the EU to be a trading relationship was to withdraw we have no indication which way those middle option voters would go.
Ever since the UK joined the EU in 1973 opinion polls have consistently shown a majority for leaving.
Simply not true. According to Ipsos Mori who have regularly asked the withdrawal question since 1977, at no time between 1984 and 1999 was there any poll that showed a majority for withdrawal. Since then it has bounced back and forth regularly. However since 2010 almost every poll by any company has shown a majority in favour of withdrawal.
58% of British voters — and three-quarters of Conservative voters — believe an independent Scotland should have to apply for EU membership.
No leads yes by 9% in Scotland EDIT - I Think the 9% lead for No in the Sunday Times is last week's panelbase poll.
the poll finds the difference between supporters and opponents of independence is more stark across Britain as a whole.
Half of UK voters oppose Scotland going it alone while 27% back the idea and 22% don’t know.
Regardless of whether Scotland becomes independent, however, only a minority (28%) favour sticking with the way England is currently governed, with laws made by all MPs in the UK parliament.
Nearly one-third (31%) would prefer England to be governed by laws made by English MPs in the UK parliament while 18% would like England to have its own new parliament with law-making powers.
The poll also found that in the event of a Yes vote in Scotland, two-thirds of Britons believe Scottish MPs and peers should immediately lose their rights to vote in parliament.
DAVID Cameron and the Spanish Prime Minister have held talks on independence movements in Scotland and Catalonia, it has been reported.
Spanish media said the two leaders had "decided to co-ordinate" their response to next year's referendum in Scotland and continuing calls for secession in Catalonia.
maybe the kippers.should be cheering On Alex Salmond. It strikes me that a vote to take the UK out of the EU is more winnable if you take Scotland out of the equation.
maybe the kippers.should be cheering On Alex Salmond. It strikes me that a vote to take the UK out of the EU is more winnable if you take Scotland out of the equation.
There's no great difference in attitudes to the EU:
"...an analysis of opinion poll data collected during the course of this year suggests that whereas across Britain as a whole only 37% would vote to stay in the European Union, in Scotland that figure is rather higher, 43% – a difference of six points. Equally, the proportion who would vote to leave is six points lower in Scotland.
While that difference is potentially enough to alter the majority outcome, it is not enough to suggest that there is a far stronger groundswell in favour of the European project north of the border."
Opinium found that just 26% of British voters regard the EU as, overall, a "good thing" compared with 42% who say it is a "bad thing". In Poland 62% say it is a good thing and 13% bad; in Germany 55% good and 17% bad, and in France 36% good and 34% bad.
When asked about the UK's contribution to the EU, there is little enthusiasm among our partners, and little to suggest they will go out of their way to keep us in. Just 9% of Germans and 15% of French people think the UK is a positive influence on the EU, with more Poles, 33%, taking that view.
Only 16% of Germans and 26% of French people back the idea of a special deal being struck for the UK. Cameron has said he intends to renegotiate the UK terms of entry and hold an in/out referendum if he wins a majority at the next election, offering the new arrangement to the British people in a referendum.
The idea of Britain leaving the EU does not appear to worry our European partners unduly. Just 24% of French voters said a UK exit would have a negative effect, compared with 36% of Germans and 51% of Poles.
I was reporting this here last year, when Richard N and others were insisting that the EU would be ready to make major concessions to keep us on board. They're bored with Cameron's poses and flounces. We want to stay? Fine. We want to leave? OK. We want massive changes as a condition for staying? Forget it.
Perfect. I really hope they don't give any ground. Cameron tries to be reasonable, EU refuses to compromise, we leave. Sounds like a winning formula.
The UK will not leave the EU. The balance of forces is overwhelmingly against such an outcome. In favour of staying in we have
The Labour Party The Liberal Democrats The SNP Plaid Cymru The NI parties, with the exception of Sinn Fein The City The CBI The TUC The EEF and most other large employer organisations Foreign investors - Nissan, Honda etc etc UK companies with significant trade with the EU The US government Other EU governments The Universities Most local authorities The Guardian, Mirror, FT, Independent Quite a number of senior Tories, including John Major, Kenneth Clarke and (we must assume) David Cameron
In favour of coming out we have
UKIP The majority of the Tory party The Sun, Mail, Times & Telegraph and, er..........
Withdrawal is a chimera and will not happen.
"...Business leaders believe the costs of being in the EU outweigh the benefits.
A poll of more than 1,000 bosses, from companies of all sizes and sectors, found overwhelming backing for plans for an in-out referendum on Britain’s place in Europe, with 66 per cent in favour.
The results dramatically undermine the conventional wisdom in Westminster that the business community would automatically campaign for Britain to remain in the EU if a vote were held in 2017, as David Cameron has promised."
The results dramatically undermine the conventional wisdom in Westminster that the business community would automatically campaign for Britain to remain in the EU if a vote were held in 2017, as David Cameron has promised."
The Mail is mysteriously coy about whether the people surveyed supported staying in or leaving, which came out at: Stay: 49% Leave: 39%
This seems to be even after they push the respondents with a bunch of questions like "For the area of monopolies and competition regulation, please say who you think should be in control – the UK Government or the EU? (%)" UK EU Don't Know ...all of which mysteriously lack an option for the EU only doing the parts of the regulation that have EU-level implications, which is the actual status quo.
EU: Reapply to join: 58 (47) Automatic Member: 21 (35)
England & Wales (Scotland) Net support for: Keep getting BBC: -1 (+48) Keep pound: -5 (+42) Keep Queen: +17 (+22) Ban Scots MPs from Westminster votes post referendum: +53 (+44) Ban Scots Lords ditto: +57 (+39)
There was also a huge difference in voting intentions depending on whether people work. Incredibly, two –thirds of unemployed people intend to vote yes, compared to just one in four of full-time workers – a clear sign that lose who have most to lose are most fearful of separation. Much of the SNP’s campaign has focused on the Westminster coalition’s welfare shake-up.
Best YouGov for UKIP since June, and interesting to see how parties have done over p12m: (vs year ago) Con: 30 (-1) Lab: 38 (-6) LibD: 10 (-) UKIP: 15 (+5)
Both Cameron and 'state of the economy' fall: Net 'well': Cameron: -18 (-5) Miliband: -33 (-2) Clegg: -50 (+1)
Doesn't look like we will be getting any Cowdenbeath by-election markets. The bookies have clearly concluded that it will be an easy LAB HOLD. Paddy Power offered me LAB at 1/25. I'll pass thanks.
Comments
http://ruthl.wordpress.com/
The UK will not leave the EU. The balance of forces is overwhelmingly against such an outcome.
The question is how long can that mottley list of reprobates remain unified. Should 'ever closer union' take place nobody in this country envisages us joining the Eurozone. Over what will be a short period of time we will then see ourselves suspended in Euro limbo land where we will have all the disadvantages of remaining (and few of the advantages) and none of the advantages of being outside its stranglehold.
Add to that that we will likely suffer some serious blows through QMV in the meantime and given the inherent scepticism to the EU I think it is inevitable that we will reach a point where withdrawal is the only logical option. It may take a decade it may take a generation but we will leave.
http://liberalconspiracy.org/2011/10/24/up-to-10-labour-mps-could-defy-eu-whip/
http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/poll.aspx?oItemId=2435&view=wide
'Ever since the UK joined the EU in 1973 opinion polls have consistently shown a majority for leaving. The only time when this was not the case was in 1975, when voters were actually faced with making a decision on the issue. '
After only two years in the Common Market voters thought that remaining in a common trading area with the wealthiest countries in Europe would be good for the UK.
The decision was based on what was on offer then, without the following 38 years of baggage..
http://youtu.be/Alld4Og2sTE
India's mission to Mars has embarked on its 300-day journey to the Red Planet, performing a crucial manoeuvre to leave Earth's orbit."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-25163113
http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/poll.aspx?oItemId=2435&view=wide
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_withdrawal_from_the_European_Union#Opinion_polling
If the Tory figure is good, then 10pm. Otherwise, 6am.
The Sunday Times publishes the results anytime beween 10.30pm and 2am.
The earliest release in the last 3 months have been at 10.30pm and 10.45pm, which showed the largest labour leads of recent months.
58% of British voters — and three-quarters of Conservative voters — believe an independent Scotland should have to apply for EU membership.
No leads yes by 9% in Scotland EDIT - I Think the 9% lead for No in the Sunday Times is last week's panelbase poll.
the poll finds the difference between supporters and opponents of independence is more stark across Britain as a whole.
Half of UK voters oppose Scotland going it alone while 27% back the idea and 22% don’t know.
Regardless of whether Scotland becomes independent, however, only a minority (28%) favour sticking with the way England is currently governed, with laws made by all MPs in the UK parliament.
Nearly one-third (31%) would prefer England to be governed by laws made by English MPs in the UK parliament while 18% would like England to have its own new parliament with law-making powers.
The poll also found that in the event of a Yes vote in Scotland, two-thirds of Britons believe Scottish MPs and peers should immediately lose their rights to vote in parliament.
Then the Yes side will be cock-a-hoop.
The last YouGov poll on Scottish Independence, no had a 20% lead.
EDIT - I Think the 9% lead for No in the Sunday Times is last week's panelbase poll.
Spanish media said the two leaders had "decided to co-ordinate" their response to next year's referendum in Scotland and continuing calls for secession in Catalonia.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/cameron-and-rajoy-consult-on-scotland-and-catalonia.22831898
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bhumibol_Adulyadej
"...an analysis of opinion poll data collected during the course of this year suggests that whereas across Britain as a whole only 37% would vote to stay in the European Union, in Scotland that figure is rather higher, 43% – a difference of six points. Equally, the proportion who would vote to leave is six points lower in Scotland.
While that difference is potentially enough to alter the majority outcome, it is not enough to suggest that there is a far stronger groundswell in favour of the European project north of the border."
http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2013/10/two-different-countries-scottish-and-english-attitudes-to-equality-and-europe/
A poll of more than 1,000 bosses, from companies of all sizes and sectors, found overwhelming backing for plans for an in-out referendum on Britain’s place in Europe, with 66 per cent in favour.
The results dramatically undermine the conventional wisdom in Westminster that the business community would automatically campaign for Britain to remain in the EU if a vote were held in 2017, as David Cameron has promised."
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2482755/Costs-staying-EU-outweigh-benefits-warn-business-leaders-overwhelmingly-plans-referendum.html
http://youtu.be/jOySb8PjNVg
http://businessforbritain.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2013/10/Britain-and-the-EU-What-business-thinks-EMBARGOED-00.01-01.11.13.pdf
The Mail is mysteriously coy about whether the people surveyed supported staying in or leaving, which came out at:
Stay: 49%
Leave: 39%
This seems to be even after they push the respondents with a bunch of questions like
"For the area of monopolies and competition regulation, please say who you think should
be in control – the UK Government or the EU? (%)"
UK
EU
Don't Know
...all of which mysteriously lack an option for the EU only doing the parts of the regulation that have EU-level implications, which is the actual status quo.
Yes. 25%
No. 56%
Und 17%
OA (Scotland)
Independence
Support: 27 (31)
Oppose: 50 (57)
How likely?
Likely: 31 (27)
Unlikely: 55 (59)
Better or worse of if Scotland independent:
E&W
Better: 28 (8)
Same: 30 (32)
Worse: 23 (42)
Scotland
Better: 13 (25)
Same: 9 (9)
Worse: 62 (54)
EU:
Reapply to join: 58 (47)
Automatic Member: 21 (35)
England & Wales (Scotland)
Net support for:
Keep getting BBC: -1 (+48)
Keep pound: -5 (+42)
Keep Queen: +17 (+22)
Ban Scots MPs from Westminster votes post referendum: +53 (+44)
Ban Scots Lords ditto: +57 (+39)
(vs year ago)
Con: 30 (-1)
Lab: 38 (-6)
LibD: 10 (-)
UKIP: 15 (+5)
Both Cameron and 'state of the economy' fall:
Net 'well':
Cameron: -18 (-5)
Miliband: -33 (-2)
Clegg: -50 (+1)
State of Britain's economy
Net 'good': -40 (-6)
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/l0855oqucd/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-291113.pdf