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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Milwaukee mayhem: the Dems could well be heading for a contest
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Milwaukee mayhem: the Dems could well be heading for a contested convention
Fictional America political dramas love a contested convention, where two or more candidates turn up still in hope of gaining the nomination, with all the trading, arguing and general politicking (and, in fictionland, often rather more than politicking) that implies. In reality, it doesn’t happen like that.
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If Biden wins Iowa, then it's pretty much all over. He's leading the national polling, and there are a lot of moderate votes that come to him as the field narrows.
And if Buttigieg wins Iowa and New Hampshire, then he stands a serious chance of going all the way to the convention.
On the other hand, Buttigieg will never get a better chance than in Iowa and New Hampshire, if he doesn't win one of them, then it's all over for him, and you have to reckon he's better throwing his support behind whoever the leading moderate is in return for a promise of a cabinet level appointment.
The same is probably true of Klobuchar and Yang (and to a lesser extent Steyer).
And Warren doesn't have a great deal of money, so if she's fourth in Iowa and New Hampshire, then she's probably not going to make it to Super Tuesday (in any real sense) either.
Finally, the 15% bar really hammers the plethora of candidates currently on 2, 3, 5 or even 7%. They end up with zero, or close to zero, delegates.
I'd also point out that the superdelegates will largely back the popular vote winner. This means that if it ends (say) 45, 30, 20, 5 in delegates, then the candidate on 45% will probably win the first vote... resulting in a non-contested convention.
So, I'd reckon a non-contested convention is the most likely outcome - say a 65-75% chance.
I think there's a degree of naivety here.
1. Even in a perfect world, a UK-US trade deal is not going to be concluded in less than 18 months. (And may not be possible at all given the large number of Conservative MPs who are from rural constituencies.)
2. But pretend that isn't true: even if you swapped an EU deal for a US deal overnight, it would still result in disruption to the British economy.
What yer gonna do, superdelegates? Vote Trump four more years?
Good article. But I’d be surprised if it goes to contested.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/17/trump-third-impeachment-us-history-no-case-stronger
The circumstances for the second impeachee, Bill Clinton, were rather different, but he, too, could claim entrapment. “
Wow - that is some contortion from Freedland or was it Weinstein that wrote it...
Sir Keith 1.43
Beccy Bailey 4.6
Nandy 14
Jess 70
Nugee 240
Cookie said:
» show previous quotes
Fun to find a subject I agree with Malcom on!
One of the reasons Malc is one of our best-loved posters is that he doesn't fit into any neat little boxes, and he speaks his own mind rather than parroting whatever is the drivel of the day spouted by his current political lodestar. I think everyone on here strongly agrees with him on at least one issue, but the variety lies in which issue it happens to be!
I do wonder if we had a less strong party system, whether we'd discover more of our politicians also spent a lot of time secretly agreeing with their opponents about lots of things. There must even be times when we watch a Labour and Tory MP rip shreds out of each other on an issue where privately they both disagree with the position their party leadership has taken and they'd actually each feel more comfortable defending the opposing position...
All the best to you and your wife @malcolmg if you catch this. Floreat Brassica!
@MyBurningEars, thank you very much for your kind wishes. If all tests are good today they are going to discharge my wife so fingers crossed, reckon she is better at home now rather than among all the infections in hospital. She has a fair bit to go but on the mend.
Mr. G, hope your wife gets to go home and recovers quickly.
And as for Cookie’s substantive point - that is the argument for PR and the politics of pluralism.
Not suggesting it's wrong but like the cuckoo in spring is the contested convention.
The good news for the Democrats is that it’s most probable that it will be substantially over by March.
Though Bernie might well do what he did last time and stay in as a spoiler.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dMt8qCl5fPk
How?
It would seem ridiculous to not align in certain areas but clearly this rancid government thinks the whole world will start following UK rules .
The nutjobs really have taken over the country .
Corded products and combustion engines - we will stay aligned as they continue to the end of their product lifecycle.
I shall go out and sulk.
Have a good morning.
Incidentally support for EU membership is quite a good test for this. The pragmatic left has long accepted membership, e.g. Lewis, McDonnell and Abbott. No member state can easily get away with breaking the state aid rules. Hence the fuss at ... uh, what? ... a Tory govt breaking them.
As a counterweight to nutjobs, it's Thornberry or Starmer only I feel. Phillips could do with one more parliament to prove herself.
https://twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/1218468229284278274?s=21
https://twitter.com/mailsport/status/1218458046961192962?s=21
The thought clearly hasn't occurred to Javid (and most Leavers). If it had, Javid wouldn't have spoken in the interview in the way he did. Politicians are careful with words.
It is only in the last day or so that I have felt remotely like myself again. A shock to be laid low so badly. Fortunately it is a glorious day here - clear, right and sunny so after my eggs Benedict I will go for a walk to the estuary.
https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Start_Point,_Devon
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/17/progressives-defeat-tories-next-election-2024
So basically the aides that RLB recruited herself from her own staff and that of Corbyn/McDonnell want to pursue a harder far left strategy than does Lansman.
No doubt about it - she is continuity Corbyn and as extreme as they come.
1. Defeat the SNP.
2. Detoxify Labour.
3. Deploy the LDs.
P.S. when is your CLP nomination meeting happening?
Otherwise no deal beckons...
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/
The minister shook their head. Instead, they believe that sector-by-sector micro deals are more likely.
I would not be surprised if HMG does refuse any attempt to hold us to a LPF and no doubt Boris will be on a plane to the US in February to start trade talks much to the anger of many remainers who cannot accept the UK is moving away from the EU
I do not think there will be a no deal but a very bare bones deal by the end of the year is more likely than a FTA
A trade deal with the US looks very unlikely.
A trade deal with the EU without some sort of LPF provision looks very unlikely.
So what do we do? Something has to break.
Defeating the SNP secure in the knowledge that if they don't succeed England and Wales become much easier for Tories to win, and more difficult for the left
Retoxifying Labour. So far the Tories have had to do nothing and let Labour toxify itself.
Ensuring that the LDs are popular enough to take some votes off Labour where necessary, and vice versa.
I wonder which group has the easier job?
We're very fortunate in the range, quality and price of food we have in this country.
What we are facing is the failure to agree an FTA. Of course, at a minimum that will mean significant extra burdens for UK exporters to the single market in both goods and services, as well as higher priced EU imports. But the government has a mandate for that to happen if necessary, so there should be few if any grumbles!!
However, pragmatism trumps (sorry about any connection to the idiotic US president) intransigent positions from both sides
I cannot see a glorious new beginning but neither do I see a disaster
The one thing that is certain is that it will be fascinating to watch over the coming months and years
MPs wont be happy if the primary employers in their constituencies don’t get deals and others do.
Poor textual analysis by both of us.