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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Blair Supremacy. Rating Corbyn as a politician

SystemSystem Posts: 12,170
edited January 2020 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Blair Supremacy. Rating Corbyn as a politician

What if we rate them by Labour policies enacted into law?"We're gonna need a bigger chart."

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Comments

  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729
    First
  • Not really disputing the crapness of Corbyn but it's kind of an arbitrary measure; surely John Major would be one of the worst leaders on those criteria?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,379
    kle4 said:

    Working Royal:

    https://twitter.com/ClarenceHouse/status/1216311348306550784?s=20

    Back tonight for Sandringham tomorrow.....Also good show of respect to Oman.

    DId you know that the letter naming his successor was lodged by the old Sultan with the British Ambassador?
    Really? I guess he never forgot his friends.
    Apparently he picked up, during his service with the British Army in Germany, the good officers trick of remembering other ranks who served with him. Apparently on several state visits, years latter, he would wander up to the Sergeant of the Guard or similar and start talking about what they'd been up to, what had happened to X etc.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,386

    Not really disputing the crapness of Corbyn but it's kind of an arbitrary measure; surely John Major would be one of the worst leaders on those criteria?

    An election winner though.
  • I can't recall the poll but I think Starmer's popularity is on the same level as Johnson's - which we must not forget is net negative, he is nothing like a Blair in that respect - which is better than Corbyn, Ed and Brown all started, I think.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,958
    It would be interesting to see a few more leaders on that chart. Brown lost much more (97 seats) in one election than Corbyn did in two - though it's not really a fair comparison!
  • Not really disputing the crapness of Corbyn but it's kind of an arbitrary measure; surely John Major would be one of the worst leaders on those criteria?

    There were a few metrics I thought about using and it is very subjective.

    Making a net loss of seats starting from opposition (and never being in government) was a pretty stark one.

    John Major won a majority (and indeed the highest ever number of votes any party has received in a general election) so does have mitigation, as well as being at the wheel after eighteen years of Tory government, most governments go on for 10-13 years.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,125
    Quick question: does the Star Wars Sequel Trilogy work better as a duology? If you just discard TLJ entirely (ie decanonise it) and treat it as a seamless two-part film from TFA to TROS?
  • If I was Labour, I would take the 2017 manifesto as the starting point because despite Corbyn and everything else, it did buck the trend in a decade of really poor results at least by voteshare.

    We have to take them promising to deliver Brexit and Corbyn being unknown as two big reasons but the policies were more left wing than Labour had proposed in quite a while so I think from a pragmatic POV they would be silly to dump all of them, especially as the Tories have tacked left economically.

    I'd propose something like:

    Invest in buses
    Invest in the NHS
    Invest in infrastructure
    Invest in defence/Policing/CPS

    They can have other stuff as well like railway nationalisation as the franchises expire (net cost: £0) but I'd run on the above pledges, similar to what Blair did in 1997.

    With a leader people actually don't hate, I don't see why Labour can't get 40% of the vote again as it did in 2017. Am I missing something here?
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590

    I can't recall the poll but I think Starmer's popularity is on the same level as Johnson's - which we must not forget is net negative, he is nothing like a Blair in that respect - which is better than Corbyn, Ed and Brown all started, I think.

    Lies, Lies and damn statistics.

    11% of people have a positive opinion of Starmer. 35% have a positive opinion of Johnson. Neither figure really matters as the question is who is best placed to attract swing voters in the right seats, and how can motivate their base to actually turn up.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    TSE, I'm sad and disappointed that you didn't include your "years since a majority" bar chart. :(
  • RobD said:

    TSE, I'm sad and disappointed that you didn't include your "years since a majority" bar chart. :(

    I don't do clickbait in thread headers.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,386

    I can't recall the poll but I think Starmer's popularity is on the same level as Johnson's - which we must not forget is net negative, he is nothing like a Blair in that respect - which is better than Corbyn, Ed and Brown all started, I think.

    Assuming Starmer becomes leader his popularity will improve. The more we see of him the more we will like him. I am not sure that is true of RLB.

    As for Pidcock. She lost because obviously she forgot to canvass outside the CLP offices.
  • maaarsh said:

    I can't recall the poll but I think Starmer's popularity is on the same level as Johnson's - which we must not forget is net negative, he is nothing like a Blair in that respect - which is better than Corbyn, Ed and Brown all started, I think.

    Lies, Lies and damn statistics.

    11% of people have a positive opinion of Starmer. 35% have a positive opinion of Johnson. Neither figure really matters as the question is who is best placed to attract swing voters in the right seats, and how can motivate their base to actually turn up.
    One of the fundamental problems of Corbyn surely is that he actively motivated people to vote against him. I can't think somebody like Starmer will have the same problem?

    The worst criticism of him seems to be that he's a bit boring but ambivalence towards him might do very well if Johnson ends up screwing up?

    The crucial thing for Labour is looking like a natural alternative Government very early on. My understanding is people were ready for Blair to be PM from 1994 onwards, hence Labour needs to look decent from next year really.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590
    maaarsh said:

    I can't recall the poll but I think Starmer's popularity is on the same level as Johnson's - which we must not forget is net negative, he is nothing like a Blair in that respect - which is better than Corbyn, Ed and Brown all started, I think.

    Lies, Lies and damn statistics.

    11% of people have a positive opinion of Starmer. 35% have a positive opinion of Johnson. Neither figure really matters as the question is who is best placed to attract swing voters in the right seats, and how can motivate their base to actually turn up.
    Fun fact - Starmer has an horrendous woman problem - more than twice as popular (still not much) with men than with women. The split in both relative and absolute terms is much worse than Boris.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    RobD said:

    TSE, I'm sad and disappointed that you didn't include your "years since a majority" bar chart. :(

    I don't do clickbait in thread headers.
    Below the line though? :o
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    TSE, I'm sad and disappointed that you didn't include your "years since a majority" bar chart. :(

    I don't do clickbait in thread headers.
    Below the line though? :o
    Not even then.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    maaarsh said:

    I can't recall the poll but I think Starmer's popularity is on the same level as Johnson's - which we must not forget is net negative, he is nothing like a Blair in that respect - which is better than Corbyn, Ed and Brown all started, I think.

    Lies, Lies and damn statistics.

    11% of people have a positive opinion of Starmer. 35% have a positive opinion of Johnson. Neither figure really matters as the question is who is best placed to attract swing voters in the right seats, and how can motivate their base to actually turn up.
    One of the fundamental problems of Corbyn surely is that he actively motivated people to vote against him. I can't think somebody like Starmer will have the same problem?

    The worst criticism of him seems to be that he's a bit boring but ambivalence towards him might do very well if Johnson ends up screwing up?

    The crucial thing for Labour is looking like a natural alternative Government very early on. My understanding is people were ready for Blair to be PM from 1994 onwards, hence Labour needs to look decent from next year really.
    Depends how many cockups he presided over during his time at the CPS. :D
  • I can't recall the poll but I think Starmer's popularity is on the same level as Johnson's - which we must not forget is net negative, he is nothing like a Blair in that respect - which is better than Corbyn, Ed and Brown all started, I think.

    Assuming Starmer becomes leader his popularity will improve. The more we see of him the more we will like him. I am not sure that is true of RLB.

    As for Pidcock. She lost because obviously she forgot to canvass outside the CLP offices.
    I will say one thing, the majority of Labour members seem to be genuinely ready to ditch Corbynism and go towards a more centrist (of today, which is still more left than 1997) position. There's a 10% or so minority full of absolute nutters who think otherwise but I suspect they'll all leave when Starmer wins (as I think he will).
  • I did also forget to say hello everyone and my apologies for my short absence. I hope you had a nice Christmas and New Year.
  • RobD said:

    maaarsh said:

    I can't recall the poll but I think Starmer's popularity is on the same level as Johnson's - which we must not forget is net negative, he is nothing like a Blair in that respect - which is better than Corbyn, Ed and Brown all started, I think.

    Lies, Lies and damn statistics.

    11% of people have a positive opinion of Starmer. 35% have a positive opinion of Johnson. Neither figure really matters as the question is who is best placed to attract swing voters in the right seats, and how can motivate their base to actually turn up.
    One of the fundamental problems of Corbyn surely is that he actively motivated people to vote against him. I can't think somebody like Starmer will have the same problem?

    The worst criticism of him seems to be that he's a bit boring but ambivalence towards him might do very well if Johnson ends up screwing up?

    The crucial thing for Labour is looking like a natural alternative Government very early on. My understanding is people were ready for Blair to be PM from 1994 onwards, hence Labour needs to look decent from next year really.
    Depends how many cockups he presided over during his time at the CPS. :D
    I would have thought more would have come out about that, the Daily Mail and others have been oddly quiet don't you think?
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590
    RobD said:

    maaarsh said:

    I can't recall the poll but I think Starmer's popularity is on the same level as Johnson's - which we must not forget is net negative, he is nothing like a Blair in that respect - which is better than Corbyn, Ed and Brown all started, I think.

    Lies, Lies and damn statistics.

    11% of people have a positive opinion of Starmer. 35% have a positive opinion of Johnson. Neither figure really matters as the question is who is best placed to attract swing voters in the right seats, and how can motivate their base to actually turn up.
    One of the fundamental problems of Corbyn surely is that he actively motivated people to vote against him. I can't think somebody like Starmer will have the same problem?

    The worst criticism of him seems to be that he's a bit boring but ambivalence towards him might do very well if Johnson ends up screwing up?

    The crucial thing for Labour is looking like a natural alternative Government very early on. My understanding is people were ready for Blair to be PM from 1994 onwards, hence Labour needs to look decent from next year really.
    Depends how many cockups he presided over during his time at the CPS. :D
    There's a lowly paid researcher in CCHQ currently very excited that the 4 days they spent compiling a list of murders and rapes committed by people Sir Keir declined to prosecute will not have been time wasted.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,379

    If I was Labour, I would take the 2017 manifesto as the starting point because despite Corbyn and everything else, it did buck the trend in a decade of really poor results at least by voteshare.

    We have to take them promising to deliver Brexit and Corbyn being unknown as two big reasons but the policies were more left wing than Labour had proposed in quite a while so I think from a pragmatic POV they would be silly to dump all of them, especially as the Tories have tacked left economically.

    I'd propose something like:

    Invest in buses
    Invest in the NHS
    Invest in infrastructure
    Invest in defence/Policing/CPS

    They can have other stuff as well like railway nationalisation as the franchises expire (net cost: £0) but I'd run on the above pledges, similar to what Blair did in 1997.

    With a leader people actually don't hate, I don't see why Labour can't get 40% of the vote again as it did in 2017. Am I missing something here?

    Labour need to demonstrate economic competence - quite simply, many people believe that given half a chance, they will revert to spending without sensible limit.

    I would suggest that the "investment" talk is stopped - it has always been code for extra spending. And everything is called an "investment".

    Talk about specific things. Not "spending on the NHS" - x to achieve a specific y. So spend x to get 8K nurses specialising in z.

    As a complete novelty, tie increased spending to increased efficiency. Every organisation in existence has fat. The only way to stop it overwhelming companies is either to shut them down and start again, or get the axe out every few years.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    RobD said:

    maaarsh said:

    I can't recall the poll but I think Starmer's popularity is on the same level as Johnson's - which we must not forget is net negative, he is nothing like a Blair in that respect - which is better than Corbyn, Ed and Brown all started, I think.

    Lies, Lies and damn statistics.

    11% of people have a positive opinion of Starmer. 35% have a positive opinion of Johnson. Neither figure really matters as the question is who is best placed to attract swing voters in the right seats, and how can motivate their base to actually turn up.
    One of the fundamental problems of Corbyn surely is that he actively motivated people to vote against him. I can't think somebody like Starmer will have the same problem?

    The worst criticism of him seems to be that he's a bit boring but ambivalence towards him might do very well if Johnson ends up screwing up?

    The crucial thing for Labour is looking like a natural alternative Government very early on. My understanding is people were ready for Blair to be PM from 1994 onwards, hence Labour needs to look decent from next year really.
    Depends how many cockups he presided over during his time at the CPS. :D
    I would have thought more would have come out about that, the Daily Mail and others have been oddly quiet don't you think?
    They'd want him to succeed if he had such baggage, surely?
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    maaarsh said:

    I can't recall the poll but I think Starmer's popularity is on the same level as Johnson's - which we must not forget is net negative, he is nothing like a Blair in that respect - which is better than Corbyn, Ed and Brown all started, I think.

    Lies, Lies and damn statistics.

    11% of people have a positive opinion of Starmer. 35% have a positive opinion of Johnson. Neither figure really matters as the question is who is best placed to attract swing voters in the right seats, and how can motivate their base to actually turn up.
    One of the fundamental problems of Corbyn surely is that he actively motivated people to vote against him. I can't think somebody like Starmer will have the same problem?

    The worst criticism of him seems to be that he's a bit boring but ambivalence towards him might do very well if Johnson ends up screwing up?

    The crucial thing for Labour is looking like a natural alternative Government very early on. My understanding is people were ready for Blair to be PM from 1994 onwards, hence Labour needs to look decent from next year really.
    Depends how many cockups he presided over during his time at the CPS. :D
    I would have thought more would have come out about that, the Daily Mail and others have been oddly quiet don't you think?
    They'd want him to succeed if he had such baggage, surely?
    Depends how many papers they want to sell, they were savage on Corbyn from pretty much day one.
  • Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836
    maaarsh said:

    RobD said:

    maaarsh said:

    I can't recall the poll but I think Starmer's popularity is on the same level as Johnson's - which we must not forget is net negative, he is nothing like a Blair in that respect - which is better than Corbyn, Ed and Brown all started, I think.

    Lies, Lies and damn statistics.

    11% of people have a positive opinion of Starmer. 35% have a positive opinion of Johnson. Neither figure really matters as the question is who is best placed to attract swing voters in the right seats, and how can motivate their base to actually turn up.
    One of the fundamental problems of Corbyn surely is that he actively motivated people to vote against him. I can't think somebody like Starmer will have the same problem?

    The worst criticism of him seems to be that he's a bit boring but ambivalence towards him might do very well if Johnson ends up screwing up?

    The crucial thing for Labour is looking like a natural alternative Government very early on. My understanding is people were ready for Blair to be PM from 1994 onwards, hence Labour needs to look decent from next year really.
    Depends how many cockups he presided over during his time at the CPS. :D
    There's a lowly paid researcher in CCHQ currently very excited that the 4 days they spent compiling a list of murders and rapes committed by people Sir Keir declined to prosecute will not have been time wasted.
    I imagine Sir Keir will be more damaged by his major push to prosecute benefits cheats in his period in office.

    Labour needs someone that can relate to regular people. Not the third middle class straight male from a small area of North London in a row.
  • Not really disputing the crapness of Corbyn but it's kind of an arbitrary measure; surely John Major would be one of the worst leaders on those criteria?

    There were a few metrics I thought about using and it is very subjective.

    Making a net loss of seats starting from opposition (and never being in government) was a pretty stark one.

    John Major won a majority (and indeed the highest ever number of votes any party has received in a general election) so does have mitigation, as well as being at the wheel after eighteen years of Tory government, most governments go on for 10-13 years.
    That's fair I guess, I don't think anyone outside enraged brexiteers would describe Major as a terrible leader. Perhaps the long term lesson is that it's pretty much always downhill for anyone winning unexpectedly against the odds (see Corbyn winning the Lab leadership). One of the many feckups of Tessy's GE was the unexpected filip it gave Corbyn.
  • Gabs3 said:

    maaarsh said:

    RobD said:

    maaarsh said:

    I can't recall the poll but I think Starmer's popularity is on the same level as Johnson's - which we must not forget is net negative, he is nothing like a Blair in that respect - which is better than Corbyn, Ed and Brown all started, I think.

    Lies, Lies and damn statistics.

    11% of people have a positive opinion of Starmer. 35% have a positive opinion of Johnson. Neither figure really matters as the question is who is best placed to attract swing voters in the right seats, and how can motivate their base to actually turn up.
    One of the fundamental problems of Corbyn surely is that he actively motivated people to vote against him. I can't think somebody like Starmer will have the same problem?

    The worst criticism of him seems to be that he's a bit boring but ambivalence towards him might do very well if Johnson ends up screwing up?

    The crucial thing for Labour is looking like a natural alternative Government very early on. My understanding is people were ready for Blair to be PM from 1994 onwards, hence Labour needs to look decent from next year really.
    Depends how many cockups he presided over during his time at the CPS. :D
    There's a lowly paid researcher in CCHQ currently very excited that the 4 days they spent compiling a list of murders and rapes committed by people Sir Keir declined to prosecute will not have been time wasted.
    I imagine Sir Keir will be more damaged by his major push to prosecute benefits cheats in his period in office.

    Labour needs someone that can relate to regular people. Not the third middle class straight male from a small area of North London in a row.
    They just voted for Boris Johnson, I don't think the place the leader comes from is the problem.

    People that say the next leader being Northern will win back all the seats is as stupid as people that say Blair returning would lead to a landslide.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,386

    I can't recall the poll but I think Starmer's popularity is on the same level as Johnson's - which we must not forget is net negative, he is nothing like a Blair in that respect - which is better than Corbyn, Ed and Brown all started, I think.

    Assuming Starmer becomes leader his popularity will improve. The more we see of him the more we will like him. I am not sure that is true of RLB.

    As for Pidcock. She lost because obviously she forgot to canvass outside the CLP offices.
    I will say one thing, the majority of Labour members seem to be genuinely ready to ditch Corbynism and go towards a more centrist (of today, which is still more left than 1997) position. There's a 10% or so minority full of absolute nutters who think otherwise but I suspect they'll all leave when Starmer wins (as I think he will).
    You are far younger than I am, and therefore have only seen the Labour Party spontaneously combust once. In my lifetime they have done so several times.

    Common sense dictates that Starmer becomes leader. Common sense however is often lacking within Labour Party circles.

    The nutters as you put them have always been in the Labour Party. This time however they took the party over. I remember in the 1980s at meetings in Camden members loved to slag off Mrs T. They weren't interested in taking votes from her though.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Gabs3 said:

    maaarsh said:

    RobD said:

    maaarsh said:

    I can't recall the poll but I think Starmer's popularity is on the same level as Johnson's - which we must not forget is net negative, he is nothing like a Blair in that respect - which is better than Corbyn, Ed and Brown all started, I think.

    Lies, Lies and damn statistics.

    11% of people have a positive opinion of Starmer. 35% have a positive opinion of Johnson. Neither figure really matters as the question is who is best placed to attract swing voters in the right seats, and how can motivate their base to actually turn up.
    One of the fundamental problems of Corbyn surely is that he actively motivated people to vote against him. I can't think somebody like Starmer will have the same problem?

    The worst criticism of him seems to be that he's a bit boring but ambivalence towards him might do very well if Johnson ends up screwing up?

    The crucial thing for Labour is looking like a natural alternative Government very early on. My understanding is people were ready for Blair to be PM from 1994 onwards, hence Labour needs to look decent from next year really.
    Depends how many cockups he presided over during his time at the CPS. :D
    There's a lowly paid researcher in CCHQ currently very excited that the 4 days they spent compiling a list of murders and rapes committed by people Sir Keir declined to prosecute will not have been time wasted.
    I imagine Sir Keir will be more damaged by his major push to prosecute benefits cheats in his period in office.

    Labour needs someone that can relate to regular people. Not the third middle class straight male from a small area of North London in a row.
    You mean like Boris Johnson (Uxbridge), May (Maidenhead), or Cameron (Witney)?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Gabs3 said:

    maaarsh said:

    RobD said:

    maaarsh said:

    I can't recall the poll but I think Starmer's popularity is on the same level as Johnson's - which we must not forget is net negative, he is nothing like a Blair in that respect - which is better than Corbyn, Ed and Brown all started, I think.

    Lies, Lies and damn statistics.

    11% of people have a positive opinion of Starmer. 35% have a positive opinion of Johnson. Neither figure really matters as the question is who is best placed to attract swing voters in the right seats, and how can motivate their base to actually turn up.
    One of the fundamental problems of Corbyn surely is that he actively motivated people to vote against him. I can't think somebody like Starmer will have the same problem?

    The worst criticism of him seems to be that he's a bit boring but ambivalence towards him might do very well if Johnson ends up screwing up?

    The crucial thing for Labour is looking like a natural alternative Government very early on. My understanding is people were ready for Blair to be PM from 1994 onwards, hence Labour needs to look decent from next year really.
    Depends how many cockups he presided over during his time at the CPS. :D
    There's a lowly paid researcher in CCHQ currently very excited that the 4 days they spent compiling a list of murders and rapes committed by people Sir Keir declined to prosecute will not have been time wasted.
    I imagine Sir Keir will be more damaged by his major push to prosecute benefits cheats in his period in office.

    Labour needs someone that can relate to regular people. Not the third middle class straight male from a small area of North London in a row.
    If you think that's a vote loser then it's no wonder Labour are so out of touch with working class communities. The working classes absolutely despise benefit cheats, the working poor loathe them even more so. I remember when we were on the estate there was a family of benefit cheats among a bunch of very poor households struggling to get by, they were the first to get a flatscreen, they had Sky and no one worked. It was a constant topic of discussion with the neighbours hoping that they would one day get their comeuppance.

    I hope that one day the taboo around reporting benefit cheats is swept away.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    On basis of seats lost Gordon Brown was a worse leader over the course of his leadership than Ed Miliband or Jeremy Corbyn, though they both lost more seats than they inherited too.

    Blair is the last Labour leader to have gained seats over the course of his leadership and Starmer, while not entirely Blairite would probably be the most centrist Labour leader since Blair.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    RobD said:

    maaarsh said:

    I can't recall the poll but I think Starmer's popularity is on the same level as Johnson's - which we must not forget is net negative, he is nothing like a Blair in that respect - which is better than Corbyn, Ed and Brown all started, I think.

    Lies, Lies and damn statistics.

    11% of people have a positive opinion of Starmer. 35% have a positive opinion of Johnson. Neither figure really matters as the question is who is best placed to attract swing voters in the right seats, and how can motivate their base to actually turn up.
    One of the fundamental problems of Corbyn surely is that he actively motivated people to vote against him. I can't think somebody like Starmer will have the same problem?

    The worst criticism of him seems to be that he's a bit boring but ambivalence towards him might do very well if Johnson ends up screwing up?

    The crucial thing for Labour is looking like a natural alternative Government very early on. My understanding is people were ready for Blair to be PM from 1994 onwards, hence Labour needs to look decent from next year really.
    Depends how many cockups he presided over during his time at the CPS. :D
    He agreed the plea bargain by Usman Kahn's legal team, that meant he was not prosecuted for terrorism.
  • The one negative thing Starmer seems to have done at the CPS is that prosecution about a bomb joke although I think if you read the context of it, it wasn't really his fault.

    On the whole from what I have seen and know (and I know people that know him very well), he's a smart and pragmatic bloke.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,228
    edited January 2020
    Bernie goes low:
    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/01/11/bernie-quietly-goes-negative-on-warren-097594

    Not convinced that this is going to help his chances of winning the nomination. If anything, it’s likely to be counterproductive.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,228

    RobD said:

    maaarsh said:

    I can't recall the poll but I think Starmer's popularity is on the same level as Johnson's - which we must not forget is net negative, he is nothing like a Blair in that respect - which is better than Corbyn, Ed and Brown all started, I think.

    Lies, Lies and damn statistics.

    11% of people have a positive opinion of Starmer. 35% have a positive opinion of Johnson. Neither figure really matters as the question is who is best placed to attract swing voters in the right seats, and how can motivate their base to actually turn up.
    One of the fundamental problems of Corbyn surely is that he actively motivated people to vote against him. I can't think somebody like Starmer will have the same problem?

    The worst criticism of him seems to be that he's a bit boring but ambivalence towards him might do very well if Johnson ends up screwing up?

    The crucial thing for Labour is looking like a natural alternative Government very early on. My understanding is people were ready for Blair to be PM from 1994 onwards, hence Labour needs to look decent from next year really.
    Depends how many cockups he presided over during his time at the CPS. :D
    He agreed the plea bargain by Usman Kahn's legal team, that meant he was not prosecuted for terrorism.
    We went through all this a week or so back.
    He was (arguably) a moderately poor DPP... which makes him considerably better than everyone else for the last two or three decades. Massively better in some cases.
  • If I was Labour, I would take the 2017 manifesto as the starting point because despite Corbyn and everything else, it did buck the trend in a decade of really poor results at least by voteshare.

    We have to take them promising to deliver Brexit and Corbyn being unknown as two big reasons but the policies were more left wing than Labour had proposed in quite a while so I think from a pragmatic POV they would be silly to dump all of them, especially as the Tories have tacked left economically.

    I'd propose something like:

    Invest in buses
    Invest in the NHS
    Invest in infrastructure
    Invest in defence/Policing/CPS

    They can have other stuff as well like railway nationalisation as the franchises expire (net cost: £0) but I'd run on the above pledges, similar to what Blair did in 1997.

    With a leader people actually don't hate, I don't see why Labour can't get 40% of the vote again as it did in 2017. Am I missing something here?

    You do realise that by the time of the next election Boris will have done all those things and more
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    Nigelb said:

    RobD said:

    maaarsh said:

    I can't recall the poll but I think Starmer's popularity is on the same level as Johnson's - which we must not forget is net negative, he is nothing like a Blair in that respect - which is better than Corbyn, Ed and Brown all started, I think.

    Lies, Lies and damn statistics.

    11% of people have a positive opinion of Starmer. 35% have a positive opinion of Johnson. Neither figure really matters as the question is who is best placed to attract swing voters in the right seats, and how can motivate their base to actually turn up.
    One of the fundamental problems of Corbyn surely is that he actively motivated people to vote against him. I can't think somebody like Starmer will have the same problem?

    The worst criticism of him seems to be that he's a bit boring but ambivalence towards him might do very well if Johnson ends up screwing up?

    The crucial thing for Labour is looking like a natural alternative Government very early on. My understanding is people were ready for Blair to be PM from 1994 onwards, hence Labour needs to look decent from next year really.
    Depends how many cockups he presided over during his time at the CPS. :D
    He agreed the plea bargain by Usman Kahn's legal team, that meant he was not prosecuted for terrorism.
    We went through all this a week or so back.
    He was (arguably) a moderately poor DPP... which makes him considerably better than everyone else for the last two or three decades. Massively better in some cases.
    Not the point being made, it does not matter whether he was a good or bad DPP, the point being made is what effluent and how much off it are the Torys going to dump all over him, if he wins.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Interesting blazer over puffer jacket look Sadiq has got going on.

    https://twitter.com/marcelabenede10/status/1216375999098695680?s=21
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    If I was Labour, I would take the 2017 manifesto as the starting point because despite Corbyn and everything else, it did buck the trend in a decade of really poor results at least by voteshare.

    We have to take them promising to deliver Brexit and Corbyn being unknown as two big reasons but the policies were more left wing than Labour had proposed in quite a while so I think from a pragmatic POV they would be silly to dump all of them, especially as the Tories have tacked left economically.

    I'd propose something like:

    Invest in buses
    Invest in the NHS
    Invest in infrastructure
    Invest in defence/Policing/CPS

    They can have other stuff as well like railway nationalisation as the franchises expire (net cost: £0) but I'd run on the above pledges, similar to what Blair did in 1997.

    With a leader people actually don't hate, I don't see why Labour can't get 40% of the vote again as it did in 2017. Am I missing something here?

    You do realise that by the time of the next election Boris will have done all those things and more
    We’ll see. Can’t blame anyone for not believing a word he says.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,590
    Nigelb said:

    RobD said:

    maaarsh said:

    I can't recall the poll but I think Starmer's popularity is on the same level as Johnson's - which we must not forget is net negative, he is nothing like a Blair in that respect - which is better than Corbyn, Ed and Brown all started, I think.

    Lies, Lies and damn statistics.

    11% of people have a positive opinion of Starmer. 35% have a positive opinion of Johnson. Neither figure really matters as the question is who is best placed to attract swing voters in the right seats, and how can motivate their base to actually turn up.
    One of the fundamental problems of Corbyn surely is that he actively motivated people to vote against him. I can't think somebody like Starmer will have the same problem?

    The worst criticism of him seems to be that he's a bit boring but ambivalence towards him might do very well if Johnson ends up screwing up?

    The crucial thing for Labour is looking like a natural alternative Government very early on. My understanding is people were ready for Blair to be PM from 1994 onwards, hence Labour needs to look decent from next year really.
    Depends how many cockups he presided over during his time at the CPS. :D
    He agreed the plea bargain by Usman Kahn's legal team, that meant he was not prosecuted for terrorism.
    We went through all this a week or so back.
    He was (arguably) a moderately poor DPP... which makes him considerably better than everyone else for the last two or three decades. Massively better in some cases.
    If we only selected PMs from ex-DPPs that would be a recommendation. As it is, he's trying to make the wrong career change. Very awkward backstory.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    The one negative thing Starmer seems to have done at the CPS is that prosecution about a bomb joke although I think if you read the context of it, it wasn't really his fault.

    On the whole from what I have seen and know (and I know people that know him very well), he's a smart and pragmatic bloke.

    The issue with his previous job isn't what he did, it's going to be what he didn't do. It will be prosecutions that were not pursued which will hurt the most.
  • If I was Labour, I would take the 2017 manifesto as the starting point because despite Corbyn and everything else, it did buck the trend in a decade of really poor results at least by voteshare.

    We have to take them promising to deliver Brexit and Corbyn being unknown as two big reasons but the policies were more left wing than Labour had proposed in quite a while so I think from a pragmatic POV they would be silly to dump all of them, especially as the Tories have tacked left economically.

    I'd propose something like:

    Invest in buses
    Invest in the NHS
    Invest in infrastructure
    Invest in defence/Policing/CPS

    They can have other stuff as well like railway nationalisation as the franchises expire (net cost: £0) but I'd run on the above pledges, similar to what Blair did in 1997.

    With a leader people actually don't hate, I don't see why Labour can't get 40% of the vote again as it did in 2017. Am I missing something here?

    You do realise that by the time of the next election Boris will have done all those things and more
    I wasn't aware you were from the future?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,386
    Gabs3 said:

    maaarsh said:

    RobD said:

    maaarsh said:

    I can't recall the poll but I think Starmer's popularity is on the same level as Johnson's - which we must not forget is net negative, he is nothing like a Blair in that respect - which is better than Corbyn, Ed and Brown all started, I think.

    Lies, Lies and damn statistics.

    11% of people have a positive opinion of Starmer. 35% have a positive opinion of Johnson. Neither figure really matters as the question is who is best placed to attract swing voters in the right seats, and how can motivate their base to actually turn up.
    One of the fundamental problems of Corbyn surely is that he actively motivated people to vote against him. I can't think somebody like Starmer will have the same problem?

    The worst criticism of him seems to be that he's a bit boring but ambivalence towards him might do very well if Johnson ends up screwing up?

    The crucial thing for Labour is looking like a natural alternative Government very early on. My understanding is people were ready for Blair to be PM from 1994 onwards, hence Labour needs to look decent from next year really.
    Depends how many cockups he presided over during his time at the CPS. :D
    There's a lowly paid researcher in CCHQ currently very excited that the 4 days they spent compiling a list of murders and rapes committed by people Sir Keir declined to prosecute will not have been time wasted.
    I imagine Sir Keir will be more damaged by his major push to prosecute benefits cheats in his period in office.

    Labour needs someone that can relate to regular people. Not the third middle class straight male from a small area of North London in a row.
    I suspect your first paragraph would positively strike a chord with the voting squeezed middle.

    'Benefit scroungers' on the other hand don't vote.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,228

    Nigelb said:

    RobD said:

    maaarsh said:

    I can't recall the poll but I think Starmer's popularity is on the same level as Johnson's - which we must not forget is net negative, he is nothing like a Blair in that respect - which is better than Corbyn, Ed and Brown all started, I think.

    Lies, Lies and damn statistics.

    11% of people have a positive opinion of Starmer. 35% have a positive opinion of Johnson. Neither figure really matters as the question is who is best placed to attract swing voters in the right seats, and how can motivate their base to actually turn up.
    One of the fundamental problems of Corbyn surely is that he actively motivated people to vote against him. I can't think somebody like Starmer will have the same problem?

    The worst criticism of him seems to be that he's a bit boring but ambivalence towards him might do very well if Johnson ends up screwing up?

    The crucial thing for Labour is looking like a natural alternative Government very early on. My understanding is people were ready for Blair to be PM from 1994 onwards, hence Labour needs to look decent from next year really.
    Depends how many cockups he presided over during his time at the CPS. :D
    He agreed the plea bargain by Usman Kahn's legal team, that meant he was not prosecuted for terrorism.
    We went through all this a week or so back.
    He was (arguably) a moderately poor DPP... which makes him considerably better than everyone else for the last two or three decades. Massively better in some cases.
    Not the point being made, it does not matter whether he was a good or bad DPP, the point being made is what effluent and how much off it are the Torys going to dump all over him, if he wins.
    Yes, but I still think they will struggle.
  • I did also forget to say hello everyone and my apologies for my short absence. I hope you had a nice Christmas and New Year.

    Thank you for your kind wishes.

    We had a lovely christmas and started the decorating of our lounge, dining room, snug and hall on the 1st January as our keep fit programme in this the year I achieve my 19th birthday !!!!!
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    MaxPB said:

    The one negative thing Starmer seems to have done at the CPS is that prosecution about a bomb joke although I think if you read the context of it, it wasn't really his fault.

    On the whole from what I have seen and know (and I know people that know him very well), he's a smart and pragmatic bloke.

    The issue with his previous job isn't what he did, it's going to be what he didn't do. It will be prosecutions that were not pursued which will hurt the most.
    He’ll just argue that the reason they weren't pursued is because of tory cuts in funding and what not. Easily deflected.
  • Well I think he'll have a lot less baggage than Corbyn and I think that's evident by the fact nothing has really come out about him.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,386

    If I was Labour, I would take the 2017 manifesto as the starting point because despite Corbyn and everything else, it did buck the trend in a decade of really poor results at least by voteshare.

    We have to take them promising to deliver Brexit and Corbyn being unknown as two big reasons but the policies were more left wing than Labour had proposed in quite a while so I think from a pragmatic POV they would be silly to dump all of them, especially as the Tories have tacked left economically.

    I'd propose something like:

    Invest in buses
    Invest in the NHS
    Invest in infrastructure
    Invest in defence/Policing/CPS

    They can have other stuff as well like railway nationalisation as the franchises expire (net cost: £0) but I'd run on the above pledges, similar to what Blair did in 1997.

    With a leader people actually don't hate, I don't see why Labour can't get 40% of the vote again as it did in 2017. Am I missing something here?

    You do realise that by the time of the next election Boris will have done all those things and more
    I love your new found optimism for Boris. I hope he doesn't let you down.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,228
    edited January 2020

    If I was Labour, I would take the 2017 manifesto as the starting point because despite Corbyn and everything else, it did buck the trend in a decade of really poor results at least by voteshare.

    We have to take them promising to deliver Brexit and Corbyn being unknown as two big reasons but the policies were more left wing than Labour had proposed in quite a while so I think from a pragmatic POV they would be silly to dump all of them, especially as the Tories have tacked left economically.

    I'd propose something like:

    Invest in buses
    Invest in the NHS
    Invest in infrastructure
    Invest in defence/Policing/CPS

    They can have other stuff as well like railway nationalisation as the franchises expire (net cost: £0) but I'd run on the above pledges, similar to what Blair did in 1997.

    With a leader people actually don't hate, I don't see why Labour can't get 40% of the vote again as it did in 2017. Am I missing something here?

    You do realise that by the time of the next election Boris will have done all those things and more
    You do realise that much of the benefits of any that might not be greatly visible by the next election ?
    (Even giving him the benefit of the doubt.)
  • I think in five years the work of Boris Johnson is going to be very difficult to see, if indeed he does anything. His time as Mayor of London resulted in very little change, which arguably (for me) was his greatest achievement.

    The idea we're going to be living in a different country in five years seems like wishful thinking to me.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    MaxPB said:

    The one negative thing Starmer seems to have done at the CPS is that prosecution about a bomb joke although I think if you read the context of it, it wasn't really his fault.

    On the whole from what I have seen and know (and I know people that know him very well), he's a smart and pragmatic bloke.

    The issue with his previous job isn't what he did, it's going to be what he didn't do. It will be prosecutions that were not pursued which will hurt the most.
    He’ll just argue that the reason they weren't pursued is because of tory cuts in funding and what not. Easily deflected.
    Then why was there money for {superfluous failed prosecution}?

    Also, blaming Tory cuts has literally just failed. I think starmer will be ok, but he's not some silver bullet that will put Labour back into government. None of the current candidates, but of that Starmer is probably the best placed to cut the majority.
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    The one negative thing Starmer seems to have done at the CPS is that prosecution about a bomb joke although I think if you read the context of it, it wasn't really his fault.

    On the whole from what I have seen and know (and I know people that know him very well), he's a smart and pragmatic bloke.

    The issue with his previous job isn't what he did, it's going to be what he didn't do. It will be prosecutions that were not pursued which will hurt the most.
    He’ll just argue that the reason they weren't pursued is because of tory cuts in funding and what not. Easily deflected.
    Then why was there money for {superfluous failed prosecution}?

    Also, blaming Tory cuts has literally just failed. I think starmer will be ok, but he's not some silver bullet that will put Labour back into government. None of the current candidates, but of that Starmer is probably the best placed to cut the majority.
    Cutting the majority will be the minimum he must do.

    If the Tories somehow increase their majority, I think that will be unprecedented for any Government ever.
  • If I was Labour, I would take the 2017 manifesto as the starting point because despite Corbyn and everything else, it did buck the trend in a decade of really poor results at least by voteshare.

    We have to take them promising to deliver Brexit and Corbyn being unknown as two big reasons but the policies were more left wing than Labour had proposed in quite a while so I think from a pragmatic POV they would be silly to dump all of them, especially as the Tories have tacked left economically.

    I'd propose something like:

    Invest in buses
    Invest in the NHS
    Invest in infrastructure
    Invest in defence/Policing/CPS

    They can have other stuff as well like railway nationalisation as the franchises expire (net cost: £0) but I'd run on the above pledges, similar to what Blair did in 1997.

    With a leader people actually don't hate, I don't see why Labour can't get 40% of the vote again as it did in 2017. Am I missing something here?

    You do realise that by the time of the next election Boris will have done all those things and more
    I wasn't aware you were from the future?
    I have always been a positive person about the future and I expect the investment in the north is going to be mind boggling including rail and buses
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    I did also forget to say hello everyone and my apologies for my short absence. I hope you had a nice Christmas and New Year.

    Thank you for your kind wishes.

    We had a lovely christmas and started the decorating of our lounge, dining room, snug and hall on the 1st January as our keep fit programme in this the year I achieve my 19th birthday !!!!!
    Last year as a teenager, Big_G... don't waste it :o
  • Interesting blazer over puffer jacket look Sadiq has got going on.

    https://twitter.com/marcelabenede10/status/1216375999098695680?s=21

    The frothers will no doubt suggest it's to cover up a stab vest.
  • If I was Labour, I would take the 2017 manifesto as the starting point because despite Corbyn and everything else, it did buck the trend in a decade of really poor results at least by voteshare.

    We have to take them promising to deliver Brexit and Corbyn being unknown as two big reasons but the policies were more left wing than Labour had proposed in quite a while so I think from a pragmatic POV they would be silly to dump all of them, especially as the Tories have tacked left economically.

    I'd propose something like:

    Invest in buses
    Invest in the NHS
    Invest in infrastructure
    Invest in defence/Policing/CPS

    They can have other stuff as well like railway nationalisation as the franchises expire (net cost: £0) but I'd run on the above pledges, similar to what Blair did in 1997.

    With a leader people actually don't hate, I don't see why Labour can't get 40% of the vote again as it did in 2017. Am I missing something here?

    You do realise that by the time of the next election Boris will have done all those things and more
    I wasn't aware you were from the future?
    I have always been a positive person about the future and I expect the investment in the north is going to be mind boggling including rail and buses
    Where is the money going to come from?

    If we have a recession which looks extremely likely, do you honestly think he'll continue throwing money at things?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    edited January 2020
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    The one negative thing Starmer seems to have done at the CPS is that prosecution about a bomb joke although I think if you read the context of it, it wasn't really his fault.

    On the whole from what I have seen and know (and I know people that know him very well), he's a smart and pragmatic bloke.

    The issue with his previous job isn't what he did, it's going to be what he didn't do. It will be prosecutions that were not pursued which will hurt the most.
    He’ll just argue that the reason they weren't pursued is because of tory cuts in funding and what not. Easily deflected.
    Then why was there money for {superfluous failed prosecution}?

    Also, blaming Tory cuts has literally just failed. I think starmer will be ok, but he's not some silver bullet that will put Labour back into government. None of the current candidates, but of that Starmer is probably the best placed to cut the majority.
    I’m not saying it is. I just mean thats one method of deflecting such attacks on that specific point. Generally I expect Keir (if elected) to be much better at dealing with the press than comical Corbyn.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,863
    I'd like to say top trolling but that might be overstating it a tad.
  • If I was Labour, I would take the 2017 manifesto as the starting point because despite Corbyn and everything else, it did buck the trend in a decade of really poor results at least by voteshare.

    We have to take them promising to deliver Brexit and Corbyn being unknown as two big reasons but the policies were more left wing than Labour had proposed in quite a while so I think from a pragmatic POV they would be silly to dump all of them, especially as the Tories have tacked left economically.

    I'd propose something like:

    Invest in buses
    Invest in the NHS
    Invest in infrastructure
    Invest in defence/Policing/CPS

    They can have other stuff as well like railway nationalisation as the franchises expire (net cost: £0) but I'd run on the above pledges, similar to what Blair did in 1997.

    With a leader people actually don't hate, I don't see why Labour can't get 40% of the vote again as it did in 2017. Am I missing something here?

    You do realise that by the time of the next election Boris will have done all those things and more
    I love your new found optimism for Boris. I hope he doesn't let you down.
    Not just Boris, the whole government is confident and optimistic, and compared with the depressing unhappy labour party, it is refreshing
  • Nigelb said:

    If I was Labour, I would take the 2017 manifesto as the starting point because despite Corbyn and everything else, it did buck the trend in a decade of really poor results at least by voteshare.

    We have to take them promising to deliver Brexit and Corbyn being unknown as two big reasons but the policies were more left wing than Labour had proposed in quite a while so I think from a pragmatic POV they would be silly to dump all of them, especially as the Tories have tacked left economically.

    I'd propose something like:

    Invest in buses
    Invest in the NHS
    Invest in infrastructure
    Invest in defence/Policing/CPS

    They can have other stuff as well like railway nationalisation as the franchises expire (net cost: £0) but I'd run on the above pledges, similar to what Blair did in 1997.

    With a leader people actually don't hate, I don't see why Labour can't get 40% of the vote again as it did in 2017. Am I missing something here?

    You do realise that by the time of the next election Boris will have done all those things and more
    You do realise that much of the benefits of any that might not be greatly visible by the next election ?
    (Even giving him the benefit of the doubt.)
    Some of it undoubtedly
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    If I was Labour, I would take the 2017 manifesto as the starting point because despite Corbyn and everything else, it did buck the trend in a decade of really poor results at least by voteshare.

    We have to take them promising to deliver Brexit and Corbyn being unknown as two big reasons but the policies were more left wing than Labour had proposed in quite a while so I think from a pragmatic POV they would be silly to dump all of them, especially as the Tories have tacked left economically.

    I'd propose something like:

    Invest in buses
    Invest in the NHS
    Invest in infrastructure
    Invest in defence/Policing/CPS

    They can have other stuff as well like railway nationalisation as the franchises expire (net cost: £0) but I'd run on the above pledges, similar to what Blair did in 1997.

    With a leader people actually don't hate, I don't see why Labour can't get 40% of the vote again as it did in 2017. Am I missing something here?

    You do realise that by the time of the next election Boris will have done all those things and more
    I wasn't aware you were from the future?
    I have always been a positive person about the future and I expect the investment in the north is going to be mind boggling including rail and buses
    Where is the money going to come from?

    If we have a recession which looks extremely likely, do you honestly think he'll continue throwing money at things?
    I'd be interested to hear Labour's answer to this question, too.
  • RobD said:

    If I was Labour, I would take the 2017 manifesto as the starting point because despite Corbyn and everything else, it did buck the trend in a decade of really poor results at least by voteshare.

    We have to take them promising to deliver Brexit and Corbyn being unknown as two big reasons but the policies were more left wing than Labour had proposed in quite a while so I think from a pragmatic POV they would be silly to dump all of them, especially as the Tories have tacked left economically.

    I'd propose something like:

    Invest in buses
    Invest in the NHS
    Invest in infrastructure
    Invest in defence/Policing/CPS

    They can have other stuff as well like railway nationalisation as the franchises expire (net cost: £0) but I'd run on the above pledges, similar to what Blair did in 1997.

    With a leader people actually don't hate, I don't see why Labour can't get 40% of the vote again as it did in 2017. Am I missing something here?

    You do realise that by the time of the next election Boris will have done all those things and more
    I wasn't aware you were from the future?
    I have always been a positive person about the future and I expect the investment in the north is going to be mind boggling including rail and buses
    Where is the money going to come from?

    If we have a recession which looks extremely likely, do you honestly think he'll continue throwing money at things?
    I'd be interested to hear Labour's answer to this question, too.
    Fair point - I don't have the answer.
  • kicorsekicorse Posts: 435
    Gabs3 said:


    Labour needs someone that can relate to regular people. Not the third middle class straight male from a small area of North London in a row.

    That's a shame. You make a perceptive comment about the damage done by using terms like "gammon", then ruin it all by excluding middle class straight males from the category of "regular people".

    I want a BAME woman from Manchester to win this contest, but comments like that are part of the problem.
  • RobD said:

    I did also forget to say hello everyone and my apologies for my short absence. I hope you had a nice Christmas and New Year.

    Thank you for your kind wishes.

    We had a lovely christmas and started the decorating of our lounge, dining room, snug and hall on the 1st January as our keep fit programme in this the year I achieve my 19th birthday !!!!!
    Last year as a teenager, Big_G... don't waste it :o
    Indeed, next is the big 80
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    If I was Labour, I would take the 2017 manifesto as the starting point because despite Corbyn and everything else, it did buck the trend in a decade of really poor results at least by voteshare.

    We have to take them promising to deliver Brexit and Corbyn being unknown as two big reasons but the policies were more left wing than Labour had proposed in quite a while so I think from a pragmatic POV they would be silly to dump all of them, especially as the Tories have tacked left economically.

    I'd propose something like:

    Invest in buses
    Invest in the NHS
    Invest in infrastructure
    Invest in defence/Policing/CPS

    They can have other stuff as well like railway nationalisation as the franchises expire (net cost: £0) but I'd run on the above pledges, similar to what Blair did in 1997.

    With a leader people actually don't hate, I don't see why Labour can't get 40% of the vote again as it did in 2017. Am I missing something here?

    You do realise that by the time of the next election Boris will have done all those things and more
    I love your new found optimism for Boris. I hope he doesn't let you down.
    Not just Boris, the whole government is confident and optimistic, and compared with the depressing unhappy labour party, it is refreshing
    ISIS suicide bombers are usually pretty optimistic just before they blow themselves up.

    Optimism is no substitute for facts.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,218
    viewcode said:

    Quick question: does the Star Wars Sequel Trilogy work better as a duology? If you just discard TLJ entirely (ie decanonise it) and treat it as a seamless two-part film from TFA to TROS?

    Interestingly, I haven't seen the Last Jedi, but I have seen TFA and TROS.

    I thought TROS was boring.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    If I was Labour, I would take the 2017 manifesto as the starting point because despite Corbyn and everything else, it did buck the trend in a decade of really poor results at least by voteshare.

    We have to take them promising to deliver Brexit and Corbyn being unknown as two big reasons but the policies were more left wing than Labour had proposed in quite a while so I think from a pragmatic POV they would be silly to dump all of them, especially as the Tories have tacked left economically.

    I'd propose something like:

    Invest in buses
    Invest in the NHS
    Invest in infrastructure
    Invest in defence/Policing/CPS

    They can have other stuff as well like railway nationalisation as the franchises expire (net cost: £0) but I'd run on the above pledges, similar to what Blair did in 1997.

    With a leader people actually don't hate, I don't see why Labour can't get 40% of the vote again as it did in 2017. Am I missing something here?

    You do realise that by the time of the next election Boris will have done all those things and more
    I love your new found optimism for Boris. I hope he doesn't let you down.
    Not just Boris, the whole government is confident and optimistic, and compared with the depressing unhappy labour party, it is refreshing
    ISIS suicide bombers are usually pretty optimistic just before they blow themselves up.

    Optimism is no substitute for facts.
    Doesn't mean optimism isn't important.
  • If I was Labour, I would take the 2017 manifesto as the starting point because despite Corbyn and everything else, it did buck the trend in a decade of really poor results at least by voteshare.

    We have to take them promising to deliver Brexit and Corbyn being unknown as two big reasons but the policies were more left wing than Labour had proposed in quite a while so I think from a pragmatic POV they would be silly to dump all of them, especially as the Tories have tacked left economically.

    I'd propose something like:

    Invest in buses
    Invest in the NHS
    Invest in infrastructure
    Invest in defence/Policing/CPS

    They can have other stuff as well like railway nationalisation as the franchises expire (net cost: £0) but I'd run on the above pledges, similar to what Blair did in 1997.

    With a leader people actually don't hate, I don't see why Labour can't get 40% of the vote again as it did in 2017. Am I missing something here?

    You do realise that by the time of the next election Boris will have done all those things and more
    I love your new found optimism for Boris. I hope he doesn't let you down.
    Not just Boris, the whole government is confident and optimistic, and compared with the depressing unhappy labour party, it is refreshing
    ISIS suicide bombers are usually pretty optimistic just before they blow themselves up.

    Optimism is no substitute for facts.
    Are you always so negative
  • rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    Quick question: does the Star Wars Sequel Trilogy work better as a duology? If you just discard TLJ entirely (ie decanonise it) and treat it as a seamless two-part film from TFA to TROS?

    Interestingly, I haven't seen the Last Jedi, but I have seen TFA and TROS.

    I thought TROS was boring.
    The best thing Star Wars released in 2019 was The Baby Yoda Show Mandalorian.
  • If I was Labour, I would take the 2017 manifesto as the starting point because despite Corbyn and everything else, it did buck the trend in a decade of really poor results at least by voteshare.

    We have to take them promising to deliver Brexit and Corbyn being unknown as two big reasons but the policies were more left wing than Labour had proposed in quite a while so I think from a pragmatic POV they would be silly to dump all of them, especially as the Tories have tacked left economically.

    I'd propose something like:

    Invest in buses
    Invest in the NHS
    Invest in infrastructure
    Invest in defence/Policing/CPS

    They can have other stuff as well like railway nationalisation as the franchises expire (net cost: £0) but I'd run on the above pledges, similar to what Blair did in 1997.

    With a leader people actually don't hate, I don't see why Labour can't get 40% of the vote again as it did in 2017. Am I missing something here?

    You do realise that by the time of the next election Boris will have done all those things and more
    I love your new found optimism for Boris. I hope he doesn't let you down.
    Not just Boris, the whole government is confident and optimistic, and compared with the depressing unhappy labour party, it is refreshing
    ISIS suicide bombers are usually pretty optimistic just before they blow themselves up.

    Optimism is no substitute for facts.
    Are you always so negative
    Don't take this the wrong way but you come across deluded and a bit like a Tory plant at times.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,863

    I did also forget to say hello everyone and my apologies for my short absence. I hope you had a nice Christmas and New Year.

    Thank you for your kind wishes.

    We had a lovely christmas and started the decorating of our lounge, dining room, snug and hall on the 1st January as our keep fit programme in this the year I achieve my 19th birthday !!!!!
    29th February? Unlucky.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    edited January 2020

    If I was Labour, I would take the 2017 manifesto as the starting point because despite Corbyn and everything else, it did buck the trend in a decade of really poor results at least by voteshare.

    We have to take them promising to deliver Brexit and Corbyn being unknown as two big reasons but the policies were more left wing than Labour had proposed in quite a while so I think from a pragmatic POV they would be silly to dump all of them, especially as the Tories have tacked left economically.

    I'd propose something like:

    Invest in buses
    Invest in the NHS
    Invest in infrastructure
    Invest in defence/Policing/CPS

    They can have other stuff as well like railway nationalisation as the franchises expire (net cost: £0) but I'd run on the above pledges, similar to what Blair did in 1997.

    With a leader people actually don't hate, I don't see why Labour can't get 40% of the vote again as it did in 2017. Am I missing something here?

    You do realise that by the time of the next election Boris will have done all those things and more
    I love your new found optimism for Boris. I hope he doesn't let you down.
    Not just Boris, the whole government is confident and optimistic, and compared with the depressing unhappy labour party, it is refreshing
    ISIS suicide bombers are usually pretty optimistic just before they blow themselves up.

    Optimism is no substitute for facts.
    Are you always so negative
    Here you go again. Why would I be optimistic about the government? Because you say so? All evidence suggests otherwise.

    I’m optimistic about plenty of things. Keir Starmer for example. The policy of the government is not one of them.

    Regardless you just don’t get it. Conservatives keep saying that the time to unite and move forward is now but instead of being consolatory you belittle us and act triumphalist.

    There’s no outstretched hand. There’s just the finger. If you want to unite the country you need to actually govern for all. Not just Dominic Cummings’s 43%.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    If I was Labour, I would take the 2017 manifesto as the starting point because despite Corbyn and everything else, it did buck the trend in a decade of really poor results at least by voteshare.

    We have to take them promising to deliver Brexit and Corbyn being unknown as two big reasons but the policies were more left wing than Labour had proposed in quite a while so I think from a pragmatic POV they would be silly to dump all of them, especially as the Tories have tacked left economically.

    I'd propose something like:

    Invest in buses
    Invest in the NHS
    Invest in infrastructure
    Invest in defence/Policing/CPS

    They can have other stuff as well like railway nationalisation as the franchises expire (net cost: £0) but I'd run on the above pledges, similar to what Blair did in 1997.

    With a leader people actually don't hate, I don't see why Labour can't get 40% of the vote again as it did in 2017. Am I missing something here?

    You do realise that by the time of the next election Boris will have done all those things and more
    I love your new found optimism for Boris. I hope he doesn't let you down.
    Not just Boris, the whole government is confident and optimistic, and compared with the depressing unhappy labour party, it is refreshing
    ISIS suicide bombers are usually pretty optimistic just before they blow themselves up.

    Optimism is no substitute for facts.
    Are you always so negative
    Don't take this the wrong way but you come across deluded and a bit like a Tory plant at times.
    Delicious irony. :D
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    edited January 2020

    Interesting blazer over puffer jacket look Sadiq has got going on.

    https://twitter.com/marcelabenede10/status/1216375999098695680?s=21

    Looking at the sleeves on his jacket, I think it is a puffer gilet that he is wearing.

    Of course, outerwear of any sort is frowned upon North of the Tyne...
  • RobD said:

    If I was Labour, I would take the 2017 manifesto as the starting point because despite Corbyn and everything else, it did buck the trend in a decade of really poor results at least by voteshare.

    We have to take them promising to deliver Brexit and Corbyn being unknown as two big reasons but the policies were more left wing than Labour had proposed in quite a while so I think from a pragmatic POV they would be silly to dump all of them, especially as the Tories have tacked left economically.

    I'd propose something like:

    Invest in buses
    Invest in the NHS
    Invest in infrastructure
    Invest in defence/Policing/CPS

    They can have other stuff as well like railway nationalisation as the franchises expire (net cost: £0) but I'd run on the above pledges, similar to what Blair did in 1997.

    With a leader people actually don't hate, I don't see why Labour can't get 40% of the vote again as it did in 2017. Am I missing something here?

    You do realise that by the time of the next election Boris will have done all those things and more
    I love your new found optimism for Boris. I hope he doesn't let you down.
    Not just Boris, the whole government is confident and optimistic, and compared with the depressing unhappy labour party, it is refreshing
    ISIS suicide bombers are usually pretty optimistic just before they blow themselves up.

    Optimism is no substitute for facts.
    Are you always so negative
    Don't take this the wrong way but you come across deluded and a bit like a Tory plant at times.
    Delicious irony. :D
    I think I've been pretty gracious and open in defeat in holding my hands up and being open to listen and reflect. I don't think it's the same at all.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,386

    If I was Labour, I would take the 2017 manifesto as the starting point because despite Corbyn and everything else, it did buck the trend in a decade of really poor results at least by voteshare.

    We have to take them promising to deliver Brexit and Corbyn being unknown as two big reasons but the policies were more left wing than Labour had proposed in quite a while so I think from a pragmatic POV they would be silly to dump all of them, especially as the Tories have tacked left economically.

    I'd propose something like:

    Invest in buses
    Invest in the NHS
    Invest in infrastructure
    Invest in defence/Policing/CPS

    They can have other stuff as well like railway nationalisation as the franchises expire (net cost: £0) but I'd run on the above pledges, similar to what Blair did in 1997.

    With a leader people actually don't hate, I don't see why Labour can't get 40% of the vote again as it did in 2017. Am I missing something here?

    You do realise that by the time of the next election Boris will have done all those things and more
    I love your new found optimism for Boris. I hope he doesn't let you down.
    Not just Boris, the whole government is confident and optimistic, and compared with the depressing unhappy labour party, it is refreshing
    Unicorns grazing on sunlit uplands perhaps. We shall see.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    MaxPB said:

    The one negative thing Starmer seems to have done at the CPS is that prosecution about a bomb joke although I think if you read the context of it, it wasn't really his fault.

    On the whole from what I have seen and know (and I know people that know him very well), he's a smart and pragmatic bloke.

    The issue with his previous job isn't what he did, it's going to be what he didn't do. It will be prosecutions that were not pursued which will hurt the most.
    I hear there was a cat who broke literally every human law and was never even arrested. I guess that's more a failing of the Met than the CPS, but I'd still like to hear his explanation.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    Quick question: does the Star Wars Sequel Trilogy work better as a duology? If you just discard TLJ entirely (ie decanonise it) and treat it as a seamless two-part film from TFA to TROS?

    Interestingly, I haven't seen the Last Jedi, but I have seen TFA and TROS.

    I thought TROS was boring.
    The best thing Star Wars released in 2019 was The Baby Yoda Show Mandalorian.
    Meh. It was pretty good.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Anyway I’m going to the new Nando’s in Newcastle this week with my super Leaver Boris supporter friend from Washington. Will be interesting.
  • I do have to be honest and say that so far I've seen very little from Johnson or the Tories to reunite the country, they're playing to their 44%/52% base very well but they were elected to reunite the country and I've seen very little that intends to actually bring the country back together again.

  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Foxy said:

    Interesting blazer over puffer jacket look Sadiq has got going on.

    https://twitter.com/marcelabenede10/status/1216375999098695680?s=21

    Looking at the sleeves on his jacket, I think it is a puffer gilet that he is wearing.

    Of course, outerwear of any sort is frowned upon North of the Tyne...
    Well he is a soft southerner after all. Can’t blame him.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    edited January 2020

    I do have to be honest and say that so far I've seen very little from Johnson or the Tories to reunite the country, they're playing to their 44%/52% base very well but they were elected to reunite the country and I've seen very little that intends to actually bring the country back together again.

    Yes. “Suck it up” is not something that will enamor anyone. It will just breed anger and resentment.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,863
    I think that on the slightly dubious metric chosen Starmer is going to do quite well, albeit I very much doubt that he will do well enough to ever become PM.

    Labour have been through a truly catastrophic and unbelievably self-indulgent 5 years with Corbyn. They have been AWOL when this country needed an opposition, they completely failed to hold the crapness of May to account and on any measure, regardless of your starting point, they contributed more than their fair share to the problems of Brexit.

    What they and the country need is for Labour to get back in the game. That means getting rid of the nasty creeps that Corbyn surrounded himself with and a realistic focus on what the government is doing and failing to do. I think Starmer is ultimately boring but that is not the point. If he is reasonably competent, brings more able voices in the party back to the front bench, insists that Shadows actually learn their briefs, keeps them in position for long enough to allow them to do so and generally brings an air of competence and reality back to Labour he will have done well. At this point I think that it is more likely than not he will achieve these aspirations which are not as modest as they would have been had Labour been even vaguely serious.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153

    I do have to be honest and say that so far I've seen very little from Johnson or the Tories to reunite the country, they're playing to their 44%/52% base very well but they were elected to reunite the country and I've seen very little that intends to actually bring the country back together again.

    Nobody even intends that when they win, it's just something everyone feels the need to say because they are supposed to say it. Even as the various sides were excoriating each other in the most vicious terms they would talk about how they offered unity. It's meaningless drivel, and impossible to boot.
  • If I was Labour, I would take the 2017 manifesto as the starting point because despite Corbyn and everything else, it did buck the trend in a decade of really poor results at least by voteshare.

    We have to take them promising to deliver Brexit and Corbyn being unknown as two big reasons but the policies were more left wing than Labour had proposed in quite a while so I think from a pragmatic POV they would be silly to dump all of them, especially as the Tories have tacked left economically.

    I'd propose something like:

    Invest in buses
    Invest in the NHS
    Invest in infrastructure
    Invest in defence/Policing/CPS

    They can have other stuff as well like railway nationalisation as the franchises expire (net cost: £0) but I'd run on the above pledges, similar to what Blair did in 1997.

    With a leader people actually don't hate, I don't see why Labour can't get 40% of the vote again as it did in 2017. Am I missing something here?

    You do realise that by the time of the next election Boris will have done all those things and more
    I love your new found optimism for Boris. I hope he doesn't let you down.
    Not just Boris, the whole government is confident and optimistic, and compared with the depressing unhappy labour party, it is refreshing
    ISIS suicide bombers are usually pretty optimistic just before they blow themselves up.

    Optimism is no substitute for facts.
    Are you always so negative
    Don't take this the wrong way but you come across deluded and a bit like a Tory plant at times.
    That is hardly in the spirit of the new year.

    I ran a very successful business entirely predicated on leading change and enthusing my employees with optimism and to be honest many labour supporters should try it, it works

    As far as a conservative plant is concerned I have been a conservative since I was asked to be a county councillor in the mid sixties when I was in my early twenties, and apart from voting for Blair twice, I have always voted conservative

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767
    "Blair's legacy still hangs around this party like a millstone".

    What utter crap. If there is a millstone it is not for voters, it is for hard left activists who still rant, foam mouthed about his neoliberal government.

    They should listen to the Brown speech where he spends five minutes just listing New Labour's achievements.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    I do have to be honest and say that so far I've seen very little from Johnson or the Tories to reunite the country, they're playing to their 44%/52% base very well but they were elected to reunite the country and I've seen very little that intends to actually bring the country back together again.

    How many days has it been so far? ;)
  • I do have to be honest and say that so far I've seen very little from Johnson or the Tories to reunite the country, they're playing to their 44%/52% base very well but they were elected to reunite the country and I've seen very little that intends to actually bring the country back together again.

    Yes. “Suck it up” is not something that will enamor anyone. It will just breed anger and resentment.
    The Remain side in many respects also had a lot of real arseholes who would just shout over each other but the fact of the matter is that Boris Johnson is the PM and he should be grown up enough to go above the factionalism and bitterness from both sides, yet he seems at the moment uninterested.

    Has he actually announced *anything* that will reunite the country?
  • RobD said:

    I do have to be honest and say that so far I've seen very little from Johnson or the Tories to reunite the country, they're playing to their 44%/52% base very well but they were elected to reunite the country and I've seen very little that intends to actually bring the country back together again.

    How many days has it been so far? ;)
    Well he's been the PM since July, what has he done?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,863
    Quincel said:

    MaxPB said:

    The one negative thing Starmer seems to have done at the CPS is that prosecution about a bomb joke although I think if you read the context of it, it wasn't really his fault.

    On the whole from what I have seen and know (and I know people that know him very well), he's a smart and pragmatic bloke.

    The issue with his previous job isn't what he did, it's going to be what he didn't do. It will be prosecutions that were not pursued which will hurt the most.
    I hear there was a cat who broke literally every human law and was never even arrested. I guess that's more a failing of the Met than the CPS, but I'd still like to hear his explanation.
    Did he not even break the law of gravity?
  • DavidL said:

    I did also forget to say hello everyone and my apologies for my short absence. I hope you had a nice Christmas and New Year.

    Thank you for your kind wishes.

    We had a lovely christmas and started the decorating of our lounge, dining room, snug and hall on the 1st January as our keep fit programme in this the year I achieve my 19th birthday !!!!!
    29th February? Unlucky.
    Always a family dispute on my birthday in non leap years

    1st March in law , but Mother always arranged it for the 28th Feb

  • That is hardly in the spirit of the new year.

    I ran a very successful business entirely predicated on leading change and enthusing my employees with optimism and to be honest many labour supporters should try it, it works

    As far as a conservative plant is concerned I have been a conservative since I was asked to be a county councillor in the mid sixties when I was in my early twenties, and apart from voting for Blair twice, I have always voted conservative

    Blind deluded optimism doesn't work. I work on facts not feelings.

    If the company I work for is going bust, optimism isn't going to suddenly stop that from happening.

    There's having a PMA and I understand that as a concept but being positive to an insane degree as you sometimes are, I have to say just makes me laugh as opposed to actually wanting to engage seriously with your points.

    I say all this having been in the Labour bubble, you show very similar behaviour to a lot of the Momentum crowd, it's almost cult like.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    RobD said:

    I do have to be honest and say that so far I've seen very little from Johnson or the Tories to reunite the country, they're playing to their 44%/52% base very well but they were elected to reunite the country and I've seen very little that intends to actually bring the country back together again.

    How many days has it been so far? ;)
    Well he's been the PM since July, what has he done?
    For most of the time he was dealing with the obstructionists in Parliament. Now that they are out of the way...
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    kle4 said:

    I do have to be honest and say that so far I've seen very little from Johnson or the Tories to reunite the country, they're playing to their 44%/52% base very well but they were elected to reunite the country and I've seen very little that intends to actually bring the country back together again.

    Nobody even intends that when they win, it's just something everyone feels the need to say because they are supposed to say it. Even as the various sides were excoriating each other in the most vicious terms they would talk about how they offered unity. It's meaningless drivel, and impossible to boot.
    Actually tackling peoples fears and worries head on might help rather than just dismissing them as Remoaners.

    “Don’t worry we’re not going to lower food standards” for example.

    But obviously they can’t do that because there is no plan. Our future is entirely dependent on the good will of others.
  • NorthernPowerhouseNorthernPowerhouse Posts: 557
    edited January 2020
    Gabs3 said:

    maaarsh said:

    RobD said:

    maaarsh said:

    I can't recall the poll but I think Starmer's popularity is on the same level as Johnson's - which we must not forget is net negative, he is nothing like a Blair in that respect - which is better than Corbyn, Ed and Brown all started, I think.

    Lies, Lies and damn statistics.

    11% of people have a positive opinion of Starmer. 35% have a positive opinion of Johnson. Neither figure really matters as the question is who is best placed to attract swing voters in the right seats, and how can motivate their base to actually turn up.
    One of the fundamental problems of Corbyn surely is that he actively motivated people to vote against him. I can't think somebody like Starmer will have the same problem?

    The worst criticism of him seems to be that he's a bit boring but ambivalence towards him might do very well if Johnson ends up screwing up?

    The crucial thing for Labour is looking like a natural alternative Government very early on. My understanding is people were ready for Blair to be PM from 1994 onwards, hence Labour needs to look decent from next year really.
    Depends how many cockups he presided over during his time at the CPS. :D
    There's a lowly paid researcher in CCHQ currently very excited that the 4 days they spent compiling a list of murders and rapes committed by people Sir Keir declined to prosecute will not have been time wasted.
    I imagine Sir Keir will be more damaged by his major push to prosecute benefits cheats in his period in office.

    Labour needs someone that can relate to regular people. Not the third middle class straight male from a small area of North London in a row.
    This is the kind of thing that needs thrown up by the selectorate to put off having him as leader, wrong daily should be throwing this hard . If you think working people might be discouraged from voting for him for prosecuting benefit cheats without mercy I think you haven’t been paying attention... the electorate would lap that up.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767

    DavidL said:

    I did also forget to say hello everyone and my apologies for my short absence. I hope you had a nice Christmas and New Year.

    Thank you for your kind wishes.

    We had a lovely christmas and started the decorating of our lounge, dining room, snug and hall on the 1st January as our keep fit programme in this the year I achieve my 19th birthday !!!!!
    29th February? Unlucky.
    Always a family dispute on my birthday in non leap years

    1st March in law , but Mother always arranged it for the 28th Feb
    I never knew that about birth date and the law. This site is a constant wonder.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    kle4 said:

    I do have to be honest and say that so far I've seen very little from Johnson or the Tories to reunite the country, they're playing to their 44%/52% base very well but they were elected to reunite the country and I've seen very little that intends to actually bring the country back together again.

    Nobody even intends that when they win, it's just something everyone feels the need to say because they are supposed to say it. Even as the various sides were excoriating each other in the most vicious terms they would talk about how they offered unity. It's meaningless drivel, and impossible to boot.
    Actually tackling peoples fears and worries head on might help rather than just dismissing them as Remoaners.

    “Don’t worry we’re not going to lower food standards” for example.

    But obviously they can’t do that because there is no plan. Our future is entirely dependent on the good will of others.
    They've already said that, see the recent statement by Villiers.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153

    kle4 said:

    I do have to be honest and say that so far I've seen very little from Johnson or the Tories to reunite the country, they're playing to their 44%/52% base very well but they were elected to reunite the country and I've seen very little that intends to actually bring the country back together again.

    Nobody even intends that when they win, it's just something everyone feels the need to say because they are supposed to say it. Even as the various sides were excoriating each other in the most vicious terms they would talk about how they offered unity. It's meaningless drivel, and impossible to boot.
    Actually tackling peoples fears and worries head on might help rather than just dismissing them as Remoaners.

    “Don’t worry we’re not going to lower food standards” for example.

    But obviously they can’t do that because there is no plan. Our future is entirely dependent on the good will of others.
    I don't disagree, I just think the underlying assumption that government's care about unifying the country, rather than winning and counting that as unity, is faulty.
This discussion has been closed.