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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Brexit: it’s not going away
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Brexit: it’s not going away
Brexit seems destined to end with a whimper not a bang. Indeed, after the failure of Mark Francois’ attempt to have Big Ben ring out the moment, it won’t even end with a bong.
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This isn't going away either:
https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1215881863845351424?s=20
ETA I cannot see any great constitutional issues, although I've not been following the thing at all closely. A downturn in the national mood might not help but Boris will not be facing the electorate for a few years yet.
I’m trying to think of a stupid error Iran has avoided making in their response to the orangutan.
I can’t.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=jPki7mOCjZc
I find it difficult to believe that any British Government would be so isolationist, and I suspect that were that to be the case, then the sound and fury would build up again.
They all work on rotors.
I wish people would be precise
I can quite see a deal coming with a fast track visa system and that would be a good thing. It is very unlikely to end up with freedom of movement
If they had fessed up on the first day, I think people would have been appalled at the tragedy but inclined to blame the idiot who started the shooting.
But as so often, the coverup is going to be what causes problems. Let’s consider the sequence of events:
1) Lunatic in Washington carries out assassination of nasty man he does not like.
2) In response, the outraged government of the target shoots missiles at US bases and achieves precisely bugger all.
3) In the course of this, they shoot down an airliner owned by a neutral country, full of their own citizens.
4) They deny all involvement, falsify flight records and paperwork, hide the black boxes and destroy the crash site so nobody can investigate.
5) When it becomes clear that there is footage of a missile attack, and it is leaked to the West, they suddenly change their tune and say they will allow some access to the black boxes although they are so damaged there is likely no data.
6) When it finally dawns on them that this in itself indicates something unusual had happened, and that nobody believes their denials for a second, they fess up and blame a junior operator whom they are now hinting they will have shot. They say it was a tragic mistake due to where the plane was flying, even though it was an airliner on a regular route and timeslot.
Even Corbyn isn’t quite this incompetent. Heck, even Trump usually manages things slightly less bizarrely.
The ayatollahs will not be convincing anyone they can be trusted with nukes, for starters.
https://twitter.com/AJEnglish/status/1215721458741235712?s=19
Similar to the IRA.
One thing I don’t get, though: how will sequencing be avoided in the rush to cobble a deal together at the end of the year? Stuff will have to be prioritised and that will mean agreeing about what should be.
It is arguable that it was conspicuous consumerism that did for Thatcherism in the end. The eighties were a decade that forgot the values of good taste, tact and modesty.
So,
Rich + greedy = just about socially acceptable
Rich + greedy + conspicuous = we’re going to do something about these horrible people
Keep your heads down fat cats.
*Sheffield Vs West Ham*
Part of the problem with discourse in England is that many of you fail to understand what Brussels, Edinburgh, Dublin, Washington, Beijing etc really want. You guys build up a whole load of straw men that you then gaily rip apart. Meanwhile, back in the real world, English public life is dominated by own-goals, foot-shooting and unforced errors. You are dreadful negotiators, not just because you don’t understand what the other side really wants, but because you don’t even understand what you want yourselves.
In football these things even out over the season. The only thing worse than VAR would be the end of VAR.
It's needed in tennis and is only used 3-4 times in a 3-4 hour match, although there's some tennis matches where it's not used at all.
Not unexpected news, but the Sultan of Oman has died:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-50902476
More seriously, that is also the loss of one of the more potent points of stability in a very unstable region.
Oman is a lovely place to visit.
Qaboos was probably Britain's last successful imperialist project. He was talked into deposing his old man and supported in the endeavour by MI6. He then repaid that debt of honour many times over by buying lots of military equipment that was both overpriced and of variable quality.
I always forget about
Gabon (when recalling countries in Africa)
Belize in central america
Oman in Asia
Moldova in Europe
Northamptonshire (when recalling counties )
Wisconsin (usa states)
When we beat Spurs 2:1, people focus on the Spurs goal that was disallowed as inches offside, but forget the goal by Ndidi disallowed a few minutes before, which was more clearly offside. Both would have been given as goals pre VAR.
A goal disallowed by VAR does seem to affect a team rather like a missed penalty. The score doesn't change, but the team does go flat for five or more minutes. Sometimes that is enough for a goal to be scored the other way. That happened against Leicester in the Spurs game, and also at Anfield to Man City.
It does need speeding up but is in principle the way forward.
Incidentally for gamblers a disallowed goal for team A may mean that team B to score next becomes value for 10 min, but perhaps something that @isam would have better stats on.
It really is that simple.
Flight 3 of the Ukrainian Airlines departs from Imam Khomeini Airport and, while in rotation, is completely approaching a sensitive military center of the IRGC and at altitude and in form of a hostile flight. In these circumstances, the plane was accidentally hit by human error and unfortunately, which unfortunately results in the martyrdom of dear compatriots and the death of a number of foreign nationals.
https://tinyurl.com/v9ayn9r
https://twitter.com/flightradar24/status/1215889858302021633?s=20
https://statsbomb.com/2019/12/vartual-reality-why-offside-var-calls-feel-so-bad-even-though-they-havent-changed-the-game/
Similar flag but nearer to Spain?
The only country that ever had Esperanto as its official language.
The major difference now is that the EU economy is on its knees with Germany on the brink of recession and France at war with itself over Macron's pension and other reforms. The UK may have sluggish growth but it has growth and with every day that passes UK companies have pushed to export to non-EU markets more and more.
If as seems likely Boris is going to pursue a major policy of huge infrastructural expansion outside the M25 then the rest of the UK will see an uptick in economic activity.
We will also see how united the EU remains as each country decides how much it needs good trade terms with the UK and our millions of tourists and expats which are still the life blood of many EU members.
https://twitter.com/johnpilger/status/1215768919912460289?s=20
https://twitter.com/olivervoel/status/1215769161579802626
The current implication of that post if they shot it down deliberately....
Edited - Reading this person’s further tweets, it turns out that was indeed what he meant. D’oh!
https://twitter.com/olivervoel/status/1215924146338762752?s=20
https://twitter.com/pjk_software/status/1215927817243963393?s=20
The difference is that the government and civil service leaks and obstructs, opposition politicians talk to the negotiators on the other side etc
It’s all down to a lack of discipline
If the government said what they wanted and let the negotiators get on with it, and the opposition waited until the deal was announced before trying to gain political advantage (vs actually trying to obstruct the sausage making process) and parliament stopped trying to do tge executives job it would be tolerably bad
https://twitter.com/Cinzia_Bianco/status/1215916587854725120?s=20
It’s way more likely to be a cockup than a conspiracy - someone forgot to tell the grunts operating the anti-aircraft system that the airport was open and to properly identify targets before pressing the big red button.
There should be zero concessions there. We need full control.
Even Carney and the market sector itself is arguing for it.
Labour's Brexit betrayal will not be forgotten easily.
Babies, fashion and fluffy stuff, nothing else please.
https://twitter.com/AgentP22/status/1215938669359616006?s=20
He's willing to give quite a lot.
His priority appears to be the ability to diverge. But you don't negotiate divergence; it's what you have if you don't agree.
By implication, Johnson doesn't want No Deal, which is a double negative and meaningless as a negotiating objectives.
I guess he will take what he can get, consistent with diverge-ability. Which won't be a lot, I suspect. Sounds like a recipe for longish term uncertainty.
He should not. Control the process and you go a long way to controlling the outcome.
So let’s see.