"Dominic Raab has said Britain is “on the same page” as the US in relation to Friday’s assassination of the Iranian general Qassem Suleimani.
Amid continuing questions about the legal justification for US actions, Raab said the UK government was “sympathetic” to Washington’s situation.
Speaking on Sky News, Raab said of Suleimani: “Let’s be very clear: he was a regional menace, and we understand the position that the Americans found themselves in, and they have a right to exercise self-defence. They have explained the basis on which that was done, and we are sympathetic to the situation they found themselves in.”
Just seen there's apparently going to be a new Battlestar Galactica series. Unsure if it'll be out this year.
Hmm. I'm not opposed to remakes, not least since the reimagining of BSG is one of my favourite TV shows, but it's only been a little over 10 years, not sure if it is time for a rehash.
I don't know anyone who was excited by the broadband thing - interested and bemused, yes, but it didn't feel like a left-wing priority at all. No strong views on utilities, but nationalising rail so that there's a unified system and a clear responsibility so we know who to blame) still makes sense to me. So as a lefty member I'm fine with that.
I remember lots of excitement on here when it was announced, and among Labour supporters elsewhere. Don't rewrite history because it's obvious now how stupid a policy it was. I remember that idiot YouGov being posted over and over as proof that the British people were ready for mass nationalisation of private industry because people wanted free stuff.
I also remember several folk saying it was a killer blow for Lab chances. Retrospectively there may be an embarrassment of retrospective killer blows for Lab but I don't think that was one of them.
It was, take a look at the polling. That marked the moment people stopped taking Labour seriously. The reason the dementia tax played so badly for us was that it leaned into our nasty party image, the reason Corbynet killed off Labour was because it did the same for Labour's credibility issue. It confirmed the worst fears of voters about the party in each case.
I didn't hear anyone talk about Commie-com. But with the waspi bung, I did hear several people around my age say something to the effect of "so I'm going to have to pay thousands more so a bunch of boomers can retire early? f*** that."
Which is odd because when the waspi bung was first announced, with that calculator showing how much you'd get back, I felt sick to my stomach like that was it, we'd lost the majority again.
So I'd be interested to know whether that gained or lost Labour votes. It doesn't seem to have been as popular with the oldies I was expecting it to be, and it may have actively lost labour votes among younger age groups.
Unlike most on here I am slightly open to the possibility that nationalised broadband has a chance of being better than what we have. But even if that were true, getting it right would be hugely difficult and time consuming for a new government. There is no quick template structure from abroad we can copy, the proposals themselves were not clear either. Therefore to have it is a priority in a radical manifesto is just bizarre, and re-enforced the view that Corbyn Labour in govt would be as incompetent as they were in opposition.
I wasn't clear how they would have dealt with the question of compensating all of the private interests who operate in this rather complex area.
Starmer also says he wants to focus on making state schools so good private schools are not needed rather than close private schools
Oh dear. That is weak.
"It's not just about how much you spend it's about how you spend it."
It's that sort of statement. Duck billed platitude.
Schooling is such a totemic and unsolved question in this country that I think that he knows that's just a totemic, symbolic answer nowadays - a centrist signal to cancel out his leftwing signals yesterday, with him always aiming to operate the two in balance like Miliband did.
Schooling is such a totemic and unsolved question in this country that I think that he knows that's just a totemic answer nowadays - a centrist signal to cancel out his leftwing signals yesterday, and he'll aim to operate s with the two in balance like Miliband.
Yes, it's a minefield. There is an attachment to the idea of private schooling here that goes well beyond those who could ever afford it. I find this utterly bizarre but there you go. It will be interesting to see if the (very mild) "end the tax breaks" policy survives. If it doesn't this will be quite telling as to direction.
Saffirs all out. England lead of 46. Which is better than many were expecting.
No kidding, the headlines on Friday were about dismal England.
I did point out at the time that England’s first innings score was what the pre match odds suggested it should be, rather than an embarrassment
A friend's betting strategy is to assume that a particularly good or bad innings is due to conditions rather than one side's brilliance, and therefore to bet on the other team also skittling the side out, or racking up centuries.
Sounds right , they do say never judge a ptich until both teams have batted on it
I don't know anyone who was excited by the broadband thing - interested and bemused, yes, but it didn't feel like a left-wing priority at all. No strong views on utilities, but nationalising rail so that there's a unified system and a clear responsibility so we know who to blame) still makes sense to me. So as a lefty member I'm fine with that.
I remember lots of excitement on here when it was announced, and among Labour supporters elsewhere. Don't rewrite history because it's obvious now how stupid a policy it was. I remember that idiot YouGov being posted over and over as proof that the British people were ready for mass nationalisation of private industry because people wanted free stuff.
I also remember several folk saying it was a killer blow for Lab chances. Retrospectively there may be an embarrassment of retrospective killer blows for Lab but I don't think that was one of them.
It was, take a look at the polling. That marked the moment people stopped taking Labour seriously. The reason the dementia tax played so badly for us was that it leaned into our nasty party image, the reason Corbynet killed off Labour was because it did the same for Labour's credibility issue. It confirmed the worst fears of voters about the party in each case.
Up to a point. The dementia tax U-turn also undermined strong and stable and even the policy's inclusion undermined Theresa May's claim that to have called an election all about Brexit.
Labour 2019 combined the worst aspects of May's 2017 manifesto and Miliband's 2015 one. Like May's, there were policies apparently designed solely to repel voters. More importantly, like Miliband's it combined a rag bag of individually popular policies but with no guiding theme or prioritisation. Post-election surveys in 2015 found voters liked what Labour was saying but doubted its competence to implement those policies. As the American consultant Axelrod lampooned it, Vote Labour and win a microwave!
The Conservative government subsequently lifted policies from Labour, and even this time has a similar pledge on broadband. Deja vu.
Excellent thread, that helps to flesh out why how and why he got his leftwing-but-pragmatic instincts.
There’s clearly a lot more to him than “North London (millionaire) lawyer”.
On his video, while I think it’s correct that Labour needs to move WELL beyond Thatcher, it does however, I suspect, astutely address his selectariate:
Starmer says the election ended the argument for a second referendum and the Leave and Remain divide and the argument must move onto a close relationship with the EU in other areas and the future trading relationship and the terms of any future US trade deal
Staking out the pragmatic position. This will be the Starmer playbook - both appeals to the left, such as in the video last night, and appeals to the pragmatising centre.
Saffirs all out. England lead of 46. Which is better than many were expecting.
No kidding, the headlines on Friday were about dismal England.
I did point out at the time that England’s first innings score was what the pre match odds suggested it should be, rather than an embarrassment
A friend's betting strategy is to assume that a particularly good or bad innings is due to conditions rather than one side's brilliance, and therefore to bet on the other team also skittling the side out, or racking up centuries.
Sounds right , they do say never judge a ptich until both teams have batted on it
It's amazing how many cricket watchers make the mistake of panicking after one innings.
I don't know anyone who was excited by the broadband thing - interested and bemused, yes, but it didn't feel like a left-wing priority at all. No strong views on utilities, but nationalising rail so that there's a unified system and a clear responsibility so we know who to blame) still makes sense to me. So as a lefty member I'm fine with that.
But I also agree with Starmer on our Brexit stance and his general approach of "left instincts but pragmatic". I thought his much-admired video was weak, though - too much about past struggles, not enough about what we should do next.
Still keeping an open mind.
I liked the “broadband thing”. Rather than a one off gimmicky sounding policy it should have been part of a broader strategy highlighting Britain’s extreme capitalism can never break out of the shorttermism and deliver productivity, and that state intervention is not commie or Marxist. Capitalist countries around the world who intervene in market to take the long term view of economic productivity are just smarter than UKs Tory Party, and better at making capitalism work than U.K. “countries like south Korea managed super broadband up to 97% our free market laiseez faire capitalism has got us up to 10% at a snails pace hence we are struggling to be competitive in global productivity tables. Japan 97% too, and Scandinavia and Ireland copying the South Korea example to improve competitiveness and productivity of across all their nation. Labour’s broadband policy is based on ensuring no one left behind in all our streets, villages, towns and communities, right across our nation.
Schooling is such a totemic and unsolved question in this country that I think that he knows that's just a totemic answer nowadays - a centrist signal to cancel out his leftwing signals yesterday, and he'll aim to operate s with the two in balance like Miliband.
Yes, it's a minefield. There is an attachment to the idea of private schooling here that goes well beyond those who could ever afford it. I find this utterly bizarre but there you go. It will be interesting to see if the (very mild) "end the tax breaks" policy survives. If it doesn't this will be quite telling as to direction.
No. Be careful here. I can walk a mile in any direction (well, in either of two directions) and pass several converted shops providing classes in maths, English and so on. This is the new reality of private education. It is no longer just stripy blazers and the Eton boating song. Yes, it is (or ought to be) a public scandal that the professions, media and politics are dominated by private schools but there is an extensive lower level our politicians need to wake up to before pledging abolition.
Up to a point. The dementia tax U-turn also undermined strong and stable and even the policy's inclusion undermined Theresa May's claim that to have called an election all about Brexit.
Labour 2019 combined the worst aspects of May's 2017 manifesto and Miliband's 2015 one. Like May's, there were policies apparently designed solely to repel voters. More importantly, like Miliband's it combined a rag bag of individually popular policies but with no guiding theme or prioritisation. Post-election surveys in 2015 found voters liked what Labour was saying but doubted its competence to implement those policies. As the American consultant Axelrod lampooned it, Vote Labour and win a microwave!
The Conservative government subsequently lifted policies from Labour, and even this time has a similar pledge on broadband. Deja vu.
My fear at the moment is that Labour could be destined to be forever moving Overton Windows but losing General Elections.
Excellent thread, that helps to flesh out why how and why he got his leftwing-but-pragmatic instincts.
There’s clearly a lot more to him than “North London (millionaire) lawyer”.
On his video, while I think it’s correct that Labour needs to move WELL beyond Thatcher, it does however, I suspect, astutely address his selectariate:
For a so called "progressive" party they sure as hell do look backwards a lot.
One of the most depressing things about our politics is the way Labour in particular wants to turn the clocks back and can't find anything positive to say about Britain. Even if I was left-wing I'd find Labour's view of the world very unappealing. Boris talks some absolute rubbish at times, but he has a degree of cheerfulness and optimism that is almost entirely absent on the left of politics.
Sounds right , they do say never judge a ptich until both teams have batted on it
Another good cricketing betting angle is to look for a quality batsman racking up a series of poor scores for no obvious reason. Once he's done it a few times step in there and start backing him to go big. This leverages "randomness" and "law of averages" which are both particularly relevant to cricket.
Great recent example - David Warner.
EDIT: Same approach can work with Investment Funds.
Excellent thread, that helps to flesh out why how and why he got his leftwing-but-pragmatic instincts.
There’s clearly a lot more to him than “North London (millionaire) lawyer”.
On his video, while I think it’s correct that Labour needs to move WELL beyond Thatcher, it does however, I suspect, astutely address his selectariate:
For a so called "progressive" party they sure as hell do look backwards a lot.
One of the most depressing things about our politics is the way Labour in particular wants to turn the clocks back and can't find anything positive to say about Britain. Even if I was left-wing I'd find Labour's view of the world very unappealing. Boris talks some absolute rubbish at times, but he has a degree of cheerfulness and optimism that is almost entirely absent on the left of politics.
This isn't his future manifesto, however, just him establishing his past credentials. Some Momentum-linked figures are inaccurately claiming he abstained on welfare cuts, for instance, so, partly because of his moderate and Blair-ish personal appearance and style after Corbynism, he has to clearly establish what is very likely the reality, that he is to the left of Blair, and that the left flank of his appeal is real.
Sounds right , they do say never judge a ptich until both teams have batted on it
Another good cricketing betting angle is to look for a quality batsman racking up a series of poor scores for no obvious reason. Once he's done it a few times step in there and start backing him to go big. This leverages "randomness" and "law of averages" which are both particularly relevant to cricket.
Great recent example - David Warner.
EDIT: Same approach can work with Investment Funds.
Recency bias? One of the reasons the "x was the best pollster at the last election" line is such nonsense, unless it is a kind of troll statement that I mistakenly took seriously
Schooling is such a totemic and unsolved question in this country that I think that he knows that's just a totemic answer nowadays - a centrist signal to cancel out his leftwing signals yesterday, and he'll aim to operate s with the two in balance like Miliband.
Yes, it's a minefield. There is an attachment to the idea of private schooling here that goes well beyond those who could ever afford it. I find this utterly bizarre but there you go. It will be interesting to see if the (very mild) "end the tax breaks" policy survives. If it doesn't this will be quite telling as to direction.
No. Be careful here. I can walk a mile in any direction (well, in either of two directions) and pass several converted shops providing classes in maths, English and so on. This is the new reality of private education. It is no longer just stripy blazers and the Eton boating song. Yes, it is (or ought to be) a public scandal that the professions, media and politics are dominated by private schools but there is an extensive lower level our politicians need to wake up to before pledging abolition.
Friend of mine, a retired teacher makes a useful addition to his pension tutoring maths. Not quite up to Japanese and Korean levels maybe, but there's certainly a market for 'extra tuition', particularly for ten or so year olds, and again in the GCSE run-up period.
Excellent thread, that helps to flesh out why how and why he got his leftwing-but-pragmatic instincts.
There’s clearly a lot more to him than “North London (millionaire) lawyer”.
On his video, while I think it’s correct that Labour needs to move WELL beyond Thatcher, it does however, I suspect, astutely address his selectariate:
No. Be careful here. I can walk a mile in any direction (well, in either of two directions) and pass several converted shops providing classes in maths, English and so on. This is the new reality of private education. It is no longer just stripy blazers and the Eton boating song. Yes, it is (or ought to be) a public scandal that the professions, media and politics are dominated by private schools but there is an extensive lower level our politicians need to wake up to before pledging abolition.
I actually disagree with abolition. For me that is too great an infringement on personal freedom and it would in any case be a mess to implement.
I favour strong disincentives. Or to spin it in a more PC manner - strong incentives to use state schools.
For example - grants for uni for state school pupils doing certain degrees at certain places.
- “The lowest rating by a LotO who went on to become Prime Minister is -22 by David Cameron. So, we can take that as our first bottom point.”
The lowest rating by Richard Leonard, current FAV (12/1) Unionist candidate to be FM, is -33, so well below the point of no return. And yet SLab cannot ditch him as there is no one better waiting in the wings. The best SLab leader-in-waiting by far - Ian Murray - is sitting in the wrong legislature.
If anyone wants an illustration of why so many Scots support independence, then consider that the following leaders have been forced upon the country despite being immensely unpopular there:
Boris Johnson -34* Theresa May -58* (David Cameron: can’t find, but they were similar to May’s)
(*these are from properly-weighted, full-sample Scottish polls. If you look at the sub-samples then both Johnson and May have much worse lowest ratings: in the minus 60 to 70 area.)
Yet the SNP got 45% at the general election in Scotland, exactly the same as Yes got in 2014, who leads the UK or Unionist parties in Scotland really makes zero difference to support for the Union overall
Well, we’re about to find out. By putting The Clown into Downing Street, the Tories are about to test your theory to the point of destruction.
(Incidentally, the SNP+SGP vote at UK GE 2019 was actually 46%, up 1.3 points on the 2014 referendum. And don’t forget that a significant minority of SLab voters also support independence. The direction of travel is clear.)
The Tories under Boris got 25% of the Scottish vote, their second highest Scottish voteshare in 25 years.
In 2014 Yes got 44.7%, in 2019 the SNP and Greens combined got 46%, just 1% higher, the direction of travel is clear, there is no movement of any significance towards independence and thus no mandate for indyref2 (also don't forget not all SNP voters back independence either).
Tories can’t have it both ways. You’ve just spent an entire GE campaign telling Scottish voters to vote SCon to prevent IndyRef2. They then thoroughly rejected your party and that message at the ballot box. You then claim that your 25% of the vote is evidence that Scots reject IndyRef2. Do you realise how daft you sound?
Schooling is such a totemic and unsolved question in this country that I think that he knows that's just a totemic answer nowadays - a centrist signal to cancel out his leftwing signals yesterday, and he'll aim to operate s with the two in balance like Miliband.
Yes, it's a minefield. There is an attachment to the idea of private schooling here that goes well beyond those who could ever afford it. I find this utterly bizarre but there you go. It will be interesting to see if the (very mild) "end the tax breaks" policy survives. If it doesn't this will be quite telling as to direction.
No. Be careful here. I can walk a mile in any direction (well, in either of two directions) and pass several converted shops providing classes in maths, English and so on. This is the new reality of private education. It is no longer just stripy blazers and the Eton boating song. Yes, it is (or ought to be) a public scandal that the professions, media and politics are dominated by private schools but there is an extensive lower level our politicians need to wake up to before pledging abolition.
Friend of mine, a retired teacher makes a useful addition to his pension tutoring maths. Not quite up to Japanese and Korean levels maybe, but there's certainly a market for 'extra tuition', particularly for ten or so year olds, and again in the GCSE run-up period.
Seems to be popular amongst my mates with junior school age kids
Starmer says the election ended the argument for a second referendum and the Leave and Remain divide and the argument must move onto a close relationship with the EU in other areas and the future trading relationship and the terms of any future US trade deal
Staking out the pragmatic position. This will be the Starmer playbook - both appeals to the left, such as in the video last night, and appeals to the pragmatising centre.
Oh dear, that is a bad move by the artist formerly known as Jess
“will leadership contest be Leave v Rejoin?”
Yes.
Smart boy that Dunn if he’s now saying what eggs been saying all along.
This labour leadership election is all about Brexit and remain, very little else. Sure the word remain is dead, but not what it stood for.
There no way debate and argument had proved the trade deal we carefully built and honed with the worlds second largest economy and biggest trading bloc in the same continent as ourselves had been holding us back as a nation.
The remain argument was how from such vandalism and destruction do you grow something better than we had before?
You could forget the word remain once we brexit, whenever that is in the coming years, but not what remain stands for. What remain stood for If the country becomes poorer it will raise into question the amount of public spending thrown at socialist healthcare, support to struggling workers and welfare customary in this country. Also workers rights, Workers have come to enjoy and believe are their right but new trade deals play into the hands of MNC in terms of pay and conditions for workers. And you say none of this is relevant in this labour leadership contest?
I don't know anyone who was excited by the broadband thing - interested and bemused, yes, but it didn't feel like a left-wing priority at all. No strong views on utilities, but nationalising rail so that there's a unified system and a clear responsibility so we know who to blame) still makes sense to me. So as a lefty member I'm fine with that.
I remember lots of excitement on here when it was announced, and among Labour supporters elsewhere. Don't rewrite history because it's obvious now how stupid a policy it was. I remember that idiot YouGov being posted over and over as proof that the British people were ready for mass nationalisation of private industry because people wanted free stuff.
I also remember several folk saying it was a killer blow for Lab chances. Retrospectively there may be an embarrassment of retrospective killer blows for Lab but I don't think that was one of them.
It was, take a look at the polling. That marked the moment people stopped taking Labour seriously. The reason the dementia tax played so badly for us was that it leaned into our nasty party image, the reason Corbynet killed off Labour was because it did the same for Labour's credibility issue. It confirmed the worst fears of voters about the party in each case.
I didn't hear anyone talk about Commie-com. But with the waspi bung, I did hear several people around my age say something to the effect of "so I'm going to have to pay thousands more so a bunch of boomers can retire early? f*** that."
Which is odd because when the waspi bung was first announced, with that calculator showing how much you'd get back, I felt sick to my stomach like that was it, we'd lost the majority again.
So I'd be interested to know whether that gained or lost Labour votes. It doesn't seem to have been as popular with the oldies I was expecting it to be, and it may have actively lost labour votes among younger age groups.
Its possible that the waspi bung did move significant votes to Labour among those who would benefit.
And in 2024 those same voters will be moving away from Labour.
I thought Jess Phillips, in the part of her Marr interview I saw, did quite well. Pressed on whether she was a Rejoiner or what she said that we were looking at least three years into the future and IF things turned out well for the people, that would mean sticking with the new arrangements, whatever they were. If, as she rather suspected, they didn't, well then rejoining would be an option.
For my part I agree; don't think there's much point in banging on about rejoining until we see what's what. I hesitate to align myself with Royalists, but, AIUI, during the lifetime of Cromwell there wasn't a lot of Royalist action. It was only when Tumbledown Dick took over that the movement for Restoration gained speed.
Starmer says the election ended the argument for a second referendum and the Leave and Remain divide and the argument must move onto a close relationship with the EU in other areas and the future trading relationship and the terms of any future US trade deal
Staking out the pragmatic position. This will be the Starmer playbook - both appeals to the left, such as in the video last night, and appeals to the pragmatising centre.
Oh dear, that is a bad move by the artist formerly known as Jess
“will leadership contest be Leave v Rejoin?”
Yes.
Smart boy that Dunn if he’s now saying what eggs been saying all along.
This labour leadership election is all about Brexit and remain, very little else. Sure the word remain is dead, but not what it stood for.
There no way debate and argument had proved the trade deal we carefully built and honed with the worlds second largest economy and biggest trading bloc in the same continent as ourselves had been holding us back as a nation.
The remain argument was how from such vandalism and destruction do you grow something better than we had before?
You could forget the word remain once we brexit, whenever that is in the coming years, but not what remain stands for. What remain stood for If the country becomes poorer it will raise into question the amount of public spending thrown at socialist healthcare, support to struggling workers and welfare customary in this country. Also workers rights, Workers have come to enjoy and believe are their right but new trade deals play into the hands of MNC in terms of pay and conditions for workers. And you say none of this is relevant in this labour leadership contest?
Against an unpopular Prime Minister, continuity Miliband might well be more than enough.
Ed Miliband got fewer votes than any Lab leader in my lifetime with the exception of Brown. Starmer is Ed Miliband with a couple of upsides. To win a majority Labour probably need to take Croydon South, Welwyn and Macclesfield alongside retaking the red wall which is a huge ask. Even Brown with the backdrop of economic chaos and a poor campaign lost less than 100 seats. So we’re potentially looking at a Lab SNP coalition as their most likely chance of government in 2024 and that in itself is enough to frighten the horses.
Here's a salutary lesson for Boris. Morrison has tried to govern in the same manner as he campaigned - via shitposts on social media - and has rapidly run into trouble. It turns out people want a bit of old school fake compassion in an actual disaster.
Against an unpopular Prime Minister, continuity Miliband might well be more than enough.
Ed Miliband got fewer votes than any Lab leader in my lifetime with the exception of Brown. Starmer is Ed Miliband with a couple of upsides. To win a majority Labour probably need to take Croydon South, Welwyn and Macclesfield alongside retaking the red wall which is a huge ask. Even Brown with the backdrop of economic chaos and a poor campaign lost less than 100 seats. So we’re potentially looking at a Lab SNP coalition as their most likely chance of government in 2024 and that in itself is enough to frighten the horses.
We musn't underestimate the appeal of image in politics. To many people Starmer looks far more familiarly and typically prime ministerial, like Blair or Cameron, than Miliband or Corbyn.
Recency bias? One of the reasons the "x was the best pollster at the last election" line is such nonsense, unless it is a kind of troll statement that I mistakenly took seriously
That is most certainly in the mix. So much of what happens in life generally - especially in the short term - is down to randomness and chance. But often this is not recognized, e.g. somebody succeeds in something and their stock goes up even though it was mainly chance and thus not particularly repeatable. If you keep "selling" people and things where this applies, and "buying" people and things where the reverse applies, you will make good money over time.
Against an unpopular Prime Minister, continuity Miliband might well be more than enough.
Ed Miliband got fewer votes than any Lab leader in my lifetime with the exception of Brown. Starmer is Ed Miliband with a couple of upsides. To win a majority Labour probably need to take Croydon South, Welwyn and Macclesfield alongside retaking the red wall which is a huge ask. Even Brown with the backdrop of economic chaos and a poor campaign lost less than 100 seats. So we’re potentially looking at a Lab SNP coalition as their most likely chance of government in 2024 and that in itself is enough to frighten the horses.
We musn't underestimate the appeal of image in politics. To many people Starmer looks far more familiarly and typically prime ministerial, like Blair or Cameron, than Miliband or Corbyn.
"It was State Murder. How can anyone be so bloody stupid?
Did World War Three begin last Thursday night? I fear it may have done. Forgive my language, but on this occasion I think it justified. How can anyone possibly have been so bloody stupid? We know from history that assassinations can have limitless effects. And when the President of the United States orders the state murder (for this, alas, is what it was) of an Iranian general, it is hard to see a good end."
- “The lowest rating by a LotO who went on to become Prime Minister is -22 by David Cameron. So, we can take that as our first bottom point.”
The lowest rating by Richard Leonard, current FAV (12/1) Unionist candidate to be FM, is -33, so well below the point of no return. And yet SLab cannot ditch him as there is no one better waiting in the wings. The best SLab leader-in-waiting by far - Ian Murray - is sitting in the wrong legislature.
If anyone wants an illustration of why so many Scots support independence, then consider that the following leaders have been forced upon the country despite being immensely unpopular there:
Boris Johnson -34* Theresa May -58* (David Cameron: can’t find, but they were similar to May’s)
(*these are from properly-weighted, full-sample Scottish polls. If you look at the sub-samples then both Johnson and May have much worse lowest ratings: in the minus 60 to 70 area.)
Yet the SNP got 45% at the general election in Scotland, exactly the same as Yes got in 2014, who leads the UK or Unionist parties in Scotland really makes zero difference to support for the Union overall
Well, we’re about to find out. By putting The Clown into Downing Street, the Tories are about to test your theory to the point of destruction.
(Incidentally, the SNP+SGP vote at UK GE 2019 was actually 46%, up 1.3 points on the 2014 referendum. And don’t forget that a significant minority of SLab voters also support independence. The direction of travel is clear.)
The Tories under Boris got 25% of the Scottish vote, their second highest Scottish voteshare in 25 years.
In 2014 Yes got 44.7%, in 2019 the SNP and Greens combined got 46%, just 1% higher, the direction of travel is clear, there is no movement of any significance towards independence and thus no mandate for indyref2 (also don't forget not all SNP voters back independence either).
Tories can’t have it both ways. You’ve just spent an entire GE campaign telling Scottish voters to vote SCon to prevent IndyRef2. They then thoroughly rejected your party and that message at the ballot box. You then claim that your 25% of the vote is evidence that Scots reject IndyRef2. Do you realise how daft you sound?
The SNP can’t have it both ways either. They just spent the entire GE campaign telling Scottish voters to “Stop Brexit”. They now claim that the campaign was about Indyref2 - unfortunately the Party that won the UK election - a UK Scotland voted to remain part of - won on a manifesto which includes a pledge not to hold Indyref2...
Here's a salutary lesson for Boris. Morrison has tried to govern in the same manner as he campaigned - via shitposts on social media - and has rapidly run into trouble. It turns out people want a bit of old school fake compassion in an actual disaster.
Here's a salutary lesson for Boris. Morrison has tried to govern in the same manner as he campaigned - via shitposts on social media - and has rapidly run into trouble. It turns out people want a bit of old school fake compassion in an actual disaster.
Hello from Sydney! Compared to ScoMo, Boris is a political genius....the footage of ScoMo grabbing the hand of a woman who said she would not shake hands with him is painful....
Here's a salutary lesson for Boris. Morrison has tried to govern in the same manner as he campaigned - via shitposts on social media - and has rapidly run into trouble. It turns out people want a bit of old school fake compassion in an actual disaster.
"It was State Murder. How can anyone be so bloody stupid?
Did World War Three begin last Thursday night? I fear it may have done. Forgive my language, but on this occasion I think it justified. How can anyone possibly have been so bloody stupid? We know from history that assassinations can have limitless effects. And when the President of the United States orders the state murder (for this, alas, is what it was) of an Iranian general, it is hard to see a good end."
Here's a salutary lesson for Boris. Morrison has tried to govern in the same manner as he campaigned - via shitposts on social media - and has rapidly run into trouble. It turns out people want a bit of old school fake compassion in an actual disaster.
- “The lowest rating by a LotO who went on to become Prime Minister is -22 by David Cameron. So, we can take that as our first bottom point.”
The lowest rating by Richard Leonard, current FAV (12/1) Unionist candidate to be FM, is -33, so well below the point of no return. And yet SLab cannot ditch him as there is no one better waiting in the wings. The best SLab leader-in-waiting by far - Ian Murray - is sitting in the wrong legislature.
If anyone wants an illustration of why so many Scots support independence, then consider that the following leaders have been forced upon the country despite being immensely unpopular there:
Boris Johnson -34* Theresa May -58* (David Cameron: can’t find, but they were similar to May’s)
(*these are from properly-weighted, full-sample Scottish polls. If you look at the sub-samples then both Johnson and May have much worse lowest ratings: in the minus 60 to 70 area.)
Yet the SNP got 45% at the general election in Scotland, exactly the same as Yes got in 2014, who leads the UK or Unionist parties in Scotland really makes zero difference to support for the Union overall
Well, we’re about to find out. By putting The Clown into Downing Street, the Tories are about to test your theory to the point of destruction.
(Incidentally, the SNP+SGP vote at UK GE 2019 was actually 46%, up 1.3 points on the 2014 referendum. And don’t forget that a significant minority of SLab voters also support independence. The direction of travel is clear.)
The SNP can’t have it both ways either. They just spent the entire GE campaign telling Scottish voters to “Stop Brexit”. They now claim that the campaign was about Indyref2 - unfortunately the Party that won the UK election - a UK Scotland voted to remain part of - won on a manifesto which includes a pledge not to hold Indyref2...
The mandate for IndyRef2 derives from our parliamentary majority in the Scottish Parliament. As you well know. But thanks for pointing out the squirrel.
Meanwhile, in non squirrel-related news: the Pound erases election gains amid no-deal Brexit concern.
Here's a salutary lesson for Boris. Morrison has tried to govern in the same manner as he campaigned - via shitposts on social media - and has rapidly run into trouble. It turns out people want a bit of old school fake compassion in an actual disaster.
Here's a salutary lesson for Boris. Morrison has tried to govern in the same manner as he campaigned - via shitposts on social media - and has rapidly run into trouble. It turns out people want a bit of old school fake compassion in an actual disaster.
Interesting and diverse discussion here on the leadership election. I don't agree with Egg that it'll be all (or even mostly) about Brexit. The membership is IMO resigned to it and as bored with it as almost everyone else. The Phillips line "Let's see how it goes" is not that different to the Starmer "Let's make the best of it".
The point about the broadband issue is that it was an attempt (too off-the-wall in my view) to address issues of interest to non-Labour people, and certainly we should be doing that. I got a couple of people on the doorstep who liked the Waspi offer, but overall the programme with sudden add-ons like Waspi degenerated into being too much of everything without a clear central theme and lacking credibility. "We'll give everyone more stuff and it won't cost much" was the ultimate impression.
So far none of us are discussing the LibDem, by the way - when is it? A thread on that might be interesting.
Raab on Marr says he is still in touch with his Iranian counterpart and although he wants to see the Iranian nuclear deal work, Iran has backtracked from its commitments
The only thing these people understand is a good thrashing , if you are soft with them at all they will take the piss. Trump should just take out all their refineries, leave them skint.
"It was State Murder. How can anyone be so bloody stupid?
Did World War Three begin last Thursday night? I fear it may have done. Forgive my language, but on this occasion I think it justified. How can anyone possibly have been so bloody stupid? We know from history that assassinations can have limitless effects. And when the President of the United States orders the state murder (for this, alas, is what it was) of an Iranian general, it is hard to see a good end."
Against an unpopular Prime Minister, continuity Miliband might well be more than enough.
Ed Miliband got fewer votes than any Lab leader in my lifetime with the exception of Brown. Starmer is Ed Miliband with a couple of upsides. To win a majority Labour probably need to take Croydon South, Welwyn and Macclesfield alongside retaking the red wall which is a huge ask. Even Brown with the backdrop of economic chaos and a poor campaign lost less than 100 seats. So we’re potentially looking at a Lab SNP coalition as their most likely chance of government in 2024 and that in itself is enough to frighten the horses.
We musn't underestimate the appeal of image in politics. To many people Starmer looks far more familiarly and typically prime ministerial, like Blair or Cameron, than Miliband or Corbyn.
I’m not sure Boris looks more Prime Ministerial than Cameron, May or Brown but he’s achieved a victory to surpass all of them. To look Prime Ministerial in dark and difficult times like the Falklands or recent economic crisis is important, however if things are not so bad in 2025 then I suspect the country might side with BoJo optimism over the detail of a meek character like Starmer. I agree Starmer looks like a PM even if he doesn’t sound like one but if he does win his biggest challenge could be making a shad cab look like a government because it’s pretty thin gruel talent wise on those Labour benches.
Excellent thread, that helps to flesh out why how and why he got his leftwing-but-pragmatic instincts.
There’s clearly a lot more to him than “North London (millionaire) lawyer”.
On his video, while I think it’s correct that Labour needs to move WELL beyond Thatcher, it does however, I suspect, astutely address his selectariate:
For a so called "progressive" party they sure as hell do look backwards a lot.
One of the most depressing things about our politics is the way Labour in particular wants to turn the clocks back and can't find anything positive to say about Britain. Even if I was left-wing I'd find Labour's view of the world very unappealing. Boris talks some absolute rubbish at times, but he has a degree of cheerfulness and optimism that is almost entirely absent on the left of politics.
This isn't his future manifesto, however, just him establishing his past credentials. Some Momentum-linked figures are inaccurately claiming he abstained on welfare cuts, for instance, so, partly because of his moderate and Blair-ish personal appearance and style after Corbynism, he has to clearly establish what is very likely the reality, that he is to the left of Blair, and that the left flank of his appeal is real.
Agreed. Also an important subtext is that he achieved results, won victories. He did more than just posture - which is all the Corbynistas have done.
Here's a salutary lesson for Boris. Morrison has tried to govern in the same manner as he campaigned - via shitposts on social media - and has rapidly run into trouble. It turns out people want a bit of old school fake compassion in an actual disaster.
ScoMo has been absent from HYUFD's fan fiction recently, always a worrying sign for any aspiring World's Strongest Right Wing Man.
HYUFD is now on a war footing for Iran and has limited time for dickriding right wing shitbags (Boris excepted).
HYUFD is probably wise to dust off the tin helmet and the Home Guard broom handle. Not that they will be of much use if his hero over the water decides to have a play with the nuclear arsenal at his disposal before the opportunity passes him by.
Raab on Marr says he is still in touch with his Iranian counterpart and although he wants to see the Iranian nuclear deal work, Iran has backtracked from its commitments
The only thing these people understand is a good thrashing , if you are soft with them at all they will take the piss. Trump should just take out all their refineries, leave them skint.
"It was State Murder. How can anyone be so bloody stupid?
Did World War Three begin last Thursday night? I fear it may have done. Forgive my language, but on this occasion I think it justified. How can anyone possibly have been so bloody stupid? We know from history that assassinations can have limitless effects. And when the President of the United States orders the state murder (for this, alas, is what it was) of an Iranian general, it is hard to see a good end."
Here's a salutary lesson for Boris. Morrison has tried to govern in the same manner as he campaigned - via shitposts on social media - and has rapidly run into trouble. It turns out people want a bit of old school fake compassion in an actual disaster.
Up to a point. The dementia tax U-turn also undermined strong and stable and even the policy's inclusion undermined Theresa May's claim that to have called an election all about Brexit.
Labour 2019 combined the worst aspects of May's 2017 manifesto and Miliband's 2015 one. Like May's, there were policies apparently designed solely to repel voters. More importantly, like Miliband's it combined a rag bag of individually popular policies but with no guiding theme or prioritisation. Post-election surveys in 2015 found voters liked what Labour was saying but doubted its competence to implement those policies. As the American consultant Axelrod lampooned it, Vote Labour and win a microwave!
The Conservative government subsequently lifted policies from Labour, and even this time has a similar pledge on broadband. Deja vu.
My fear at the moment is that Labour could be destined to be forever moving Overton Windows but losing General Elections.
Boris will continually steal popular policies of other parties.
Labour's best chance to prevent that is to promote a suite of unpopular policies.
Here's a salutary lesson for Boris. Morrison has tried to govern in the same manner as he campaigned - via shitposts on social media - and has rapidly run into trouble. It turns out people want a bit of old school fake compassion in an actual disaster.
Hello from Sydney! Compared to ScoMo, Boris is a political genius....the footage of ScoMo grabbing the hand of a woman who said she would not shake hands with him is painful....
There are some parallels with ScoMo in Hawaii and Boris away in Canada(?), during the London riots. Both were crap decisions and at the time I and many thought Boris’s career at the top was in real peril due to that lack of judgement. However the riots disappeared and his iron fisted approach to the thieves won back support, a year later he won another 4 years and the rest is history.
ScoMo is lucky this is early on in his Premiership. There will be bushfires every year and he has a chance to show lessons have been learned and the state can become more effective at preventing and fighting the fires. He’s had a shocking week but he’s not without talent as a PM or relatable bloke and you’d be a fool to write him off. Unfortunately as with Boris there are plenty of fools on this forum and elsewhere who fail to grasp that their own reservations are not always shared by the majority of voters.
Here's a salutary lesson for Boris. Morrison has tried to govern in the same manner as he campaigned - via shitposts on social media - and has rapidly run into trouble. It turns out people want a bit of old school fake compassion in an actual disaster.
Hello from Sydney! Compared to ScoMo, Boris is a political genius....the footage of ScoMo grabbing the hand of a woman who said she would not shake hands with him is painful....
There are some parallels with ScoMo in Hawaii and Boris away in Canada(?), during the London riots. Both were crap decisions and at the time I and many thought Boris’s career at the top was in real peril due to that lack of judgement. However the riots disappeared and his iron fisted approach to the thieves won back support, a year later he won another 4 years and the rest is history.
ScoMo is lucky this is early on in his Premiership. There will be bushfires every year and he has a chance to show lessons have been learned and the state can become more effective at preventing and fighting the fires. He’s had a shocking week but he’s not without talent as a PM or relatable bloke and you’d be a fool to write him off. Unfortunately as with Boris there are plenty of fools on this forum and elsewhere who fail to grasp that their own reservations are not always shared by the majority of voters.
Can't remember Boris being away during the riots. If so, he must have returned pretty sharpish, as I recall him turning up in Ealing (where I lived at the time) the day after with a yard brush to start sweeping up all the broken glass.
Raab on Marr says he is still in touch with his Iranian counterpart and although he wants to see the Iranian nuclear deal work, Iran has backtracked from its commitments
The only thing these people understand is a good thrashing , if you are soft with them at all they will take the piss. Trump should just take out all their refineries, leave them skint.
Well that's one way to get Scottish independence rolling - spike oil prices to $200 a barrel.
The nuclear winter from WWIII should also help with the Global Warming.
- “The lowest rating by a LotO who went on to become Prime Minister is -22 by David Cameron. So, we can take that as our first bottom point.”
The lowest rating by Richard Leonard, current FAV (12/1) Unionist candidate to be FM, is -33, so well below the point of no return. And yet SLab cannot ditch him as there is no one better waiting in the wings. The best SLab leader-in-waiting by far - Ian Murray - is sitting in the wrong legislature.
If anyone wants an illustration of why so many Scots support independence, then consider that the following leaders have been forced upon the country despite being immensely unpopular there:
Boris Johnson -34* Theresa May -58* (David Cameron: can’t find, but they were similar to May’s)
(*these are from properly-weighted, full-sample Scottish polls. If you look at the sub-samples then both Johnson and May have much worse lowest ratings: in the minus 60 to 70 area.)
Yet the SNP got 45% at the general election in Scotland, exactly the same as Yes got in 2014, who leads the UK or Unionist parties in Scotland really makes zero difference to support for the Union overall
Well, we’re about to find out. By putting The Clown into Downing Street, the Tories are about to test your theory to the point of destruction.
(Incidentally, the SNP+SGP vote at UK GE 2019 was actually 46%, up 1.3 points on the 2014 referendum. And don’t forget that a significant minority of SLab voters also support independence. The direction of travel is clear.)
The SNP can’t have it both ways either. They just spent the entire GE campaign telling Scottish voters to “Stop Brexit”. They now claim that the campaign was about Indyref2 - unfortunately the Party that won the UK election - a UK Scotland voted to remain part of - won on a manifesto which includes a pledge not to hold Indyref2...
The mandate for IndyRef2 derives from our parliamentary majority in the Scottish Parliament..
Here's a salutary lesson for Boris. Morrison has tried to govern in the same manner as he campaigned - via shitposts on social media - and has rapidly run into trouble. It turns out people want a bit of old school fake compassion in an actual disaster.
ScoMo has been absent from HYUFD's fan fiction recently, always a worrying sign for any aspiring World's Strongest Right Wing Man.
HYUFD is now on a war footing for Iran and has limited time for dickriding right wing shitbags (Boris excepted).
At least he will not be invading Scotland till he gets Iran sorted out.
Boris has enough on his plate, dealing with a belligerent tin-pot regime (propped up by implausibly large popular votes) whose single purpose is to destabilise the neighbourhood and has a determinedly confused view on nuclear weapons - without worrying about Iran.....
Here's a salutary lesson for Boris. Morrison has tried to govern in the same manner as he campaigned - via shitposts on social media - and has rapidly run into trouble. It turns out people want a bit of old school fake compassion in an actual disaster.
Hello from Sydney! Compared to ScoMo, Boris is a political genius....the footage of ScoMo grabbing the hand of a woman who said she would not shake hands with him is painful....
There are some parallels with ScoMo in Hawaii and Boris away in Canada(?), during the London riots. Both were crap decisions and at the time I and many thought Boris’s career at the top was in real peril due to that lack of judgement. However the riots disappeared and his iron fisted approach to the thieves won back support, a year later he won another 4 years and the rest is history.
ScoMo is lucky this is early on in his Premiership. There will be bushfires every year and he has a chance to show lessons have been learned and the state can become more effective at preventing and fighting the fires. He’s had a shocking week but he’s not without talent as a PM or relatable bloke and you’d be a fool to write him off. Unfortunately as with Boris there are plenty of fools on this forum and elsewhere who fail to grasp that their own reservations are not always shared by the majority of voters.
Can't remember Boris being away during the riots. If so, he must have returned pretty sharpish, as I recall him turning up in Ealing (where I lived at the time) the day after with a yard brush to start sweeping up all the broken glass.
It was a big deal at the time in London and on his return he got heckled in a lot of places. But by making himself present and good leadership he managed to quickly reverse perceptions.
Against an unpopular Prime Minister, continuity Miliband might well be more than enough.
Ed Miliband got fewer votes than any Lab leader in my lifetime with the exception of Brown. Starmer is Ed Miliband with a couple of upsides. To win a majority Labour probably need to take Croydon South, Welwyn and Macclesfield alongside retaking the red wall which is a huge ask. Even Brown with the backdrop of economic chaos and a poor campaign lost less than 100 seats. So we’re potentially looking at a Lab SNP coalition as their most likely chance of government in 2024 and that in itself is enough to frighten the horses.
We musn't underestimate the appeal of image in politics. To many people Starmer looks far more familiarly and typically prime ministerial, like Blair or Cameron, than Miliband or Corbyn.
I’m not sure Boris looks more Prime Ministerial than Cameron, May or Brown but he’s achieved a victory to surpass all of them. To look Prime Ministerial in dark and difficult times like the Falklands or recent economic crisis is important, however if things are not so bad in 2025 then I suspect the country might side with BoJo optimism over the detail of a meek character like Starmer. I agree Starmer looks like a PM even if he doesn’t sound like one but if he does win his biggest challenge could be making a shad cab look like a government because it’s pretty thin gruel talent wise on those Labour benches.
If things are going well in 2024/5, the government wins anyway. If not, and the opposition looks plausible, the government loses. Simple as that.
(In other words, the key question is whether BorisandDom-ism works as a practical model of government.)
It’s funny watching Tories berate Labour for being the “party of nostalgia” when the Conservative Party’s entire reason for being at the moment is to recreate Britain circa 1890.
Against an unpopular Prime Minister, continuity Miliband might well be more than enough.
Ed Miliband got fewer votes than any Lab leader in my lifetime with the exception of Brown. Starmer is Ed Miliband with a couple of upsides. To win a majority Labour probably need to take Croydon South, Welwyn and Macclesfield alongside retaking the red wall which is a huge ask. Even Brown with the backdrop of economic chaos and a poor campaign lost less than 100 seats. So we’re potentially looking at a Lab SNP coalition as their most likely chance of government in 2024 and that in itself is enough to frighten the horses.
We musn't underestimate the appeal of image in politics. To many people Starmer looks far more familiarly and typically prime ministerial, like Blair or Cameron, than Miliband or Corbyn.
I’m not sure Boris looks more Prime Ministerial than Cameron, May or Brown but he’s achieved a victory to surpass all of them. To look Prime Ministerial in dark and difficult times like the Falklands or recent economic crisis is important, however if things are not so bad in 2025 then I suspect the country might side with BoJo optimism over the detail of a meek character like Starmer. I agree Starmer looks like a PM even if he doesn’t sound like one but if he does win his biggest challenge could be making a shad cab look like a government because it’s pretty thin gruel talent wise on those Labour benches.
If things are going well in 2024/5, the government wins anyway. If not, and the opposition looks plausible, the government loses. Simple as that.
(In other words, the key question is whether BorisandDom-ism works as a practical model of government.)
This was the case in 2010 but Cameron still came way short of a majority. To win 120 seats when Scotland isn’t in play will be incredibly difficult even if the government is shite. To win 120 after boundary changes near impossible. Starmer and his merry band of socialists probably won’t be looking as plausible as Cameron/Osborne did in 2010 either.
It’s funny watching Tories berate Labour for being the “party of nostalgia” when the Conservative Party’s entire reason for being at the moment is to recreate Britain circa 1890.
Ever thought that your wallowing in prejudice explains why you keep losing ?
Against an unpopular Prime Minister, continuity Miliband might well be more than enough.
Ed Miliband got fewer votes than any Lab leader in my lifetime with the exception of Brown. Starmer is Ed Miliband with a couple of upsides. To win a majority Labour probably need to take Croydon South, Welwyn and Macclesfield alongside retaking the red wall which is a huge ask. Even Brown with the backdrop of economic chaos and a poor campaign lost less than 100 seats. So we’re potentially looking at a Lab SNP coalition as their most likely chance of government in 2024 and that in itself is enough to frighten the horses.
We musn't underestimate the appeal of image in politics. To many people Starmer looks far more familiarly and typically prime ministerial, like Blair or Cameron, than Miliband or Corbyn.
I’m not sure Boris looks more Prime Ministerial than Cameron, May or Brown but he’s achieved a victory to surpass all of them. To look Prime Ministerial in dark and difficult times like the Falklands or recent economic crisis is important, however if things are not so bad in 2025 then I suspect the country might side with BoJo optimism over the detail of a meek character like Starmer. I agree Starmer looks like a PM even if he doesn’t sound like one but if he does win his biggest challenge could be making a shad cab look like a government because it’s pretty thin gruel talent wise on those Labour benches.
If things are going well in 2024/5, the government wins anyway. If not, and the opposition looks plausible, the government loses. Simple as that.
(In other words, the key question is whether BorisandDom-ism works as a practical model of government.)
This was the case in 2010 but Cameron still came way short of a majority. To win 120 seats when Scotland isn’t in play will be incredibly difficult even if the government is shite. To win 120 after boundary changes near impossible. Starmer and his merry band of socialists probably won’t be looking as plausible as Cameron/Osborne did in 2010 either.
I don't know anyone who was excited by the broadband thing - interested and bemused, yes, but it didn't feel like a left-wing priority at all. No strong views on utilities, but nationalising rail so that there's a unified system and a clear responsibility so we know who to blame) still makes sense to me. So as a lefty member I'm fine with that.
I remember lots of excitement on here when it was announced, and among Labour supporters elsewhere. Don't rewrite history because it's obvious now how stupid a policy it was. I remember that idiot YouGov being posted over and over as proof that the British people were ready for mass nationalisation of private industry because people wanted free stuff.
I also remember several folk saying it was a killer blow for Lab chances. Retrospectively there may be an embarrassment of retrospective killer blows for Lab but I don't think that was one of them.
It was, take a look at the polling. That marked the moment people stopped taking Labour seriously. The reason the dementia tax played so badly for us was that it leaned into our nasty party image, the reason Corbynet killed off Labour was because it did the same for Labour's credibility issue. It confirmed the worst fears of voters about the party in each case.
I didn't hear anyone talk about Commie-com. But with the waspi bung, I did hear several people around my age say something to the effect of "so I'm going to have to pay thousands more so a bunch of boomers can retire early? f*** that."
Which is odd because when the waspi bung was first announced, with that calculator showing how much you'd get back, I felt sick to my stomach like that was it, we'd lost the majority again.
So I'd be interested to know whether that gained or lost Labour votes. It doesn't seem to have been as popular with the oldies I was expecting it to be, and it may have actively lost labour votes among younger age groups.
Its possible that the waspi bung did move significant votes to Labour among those who would benefit.
And in 2024 those same voters will be moving away from Labour.
I think that would be an interesting statistical calculation, if there is enough data.
Did women born between 1950 and 1960 swing preferentially to Labour?
(I agree that the bung may have put some people off who realised they would be paying for it, but that is a harder effect to track).
It’s funny watching Tories berate Labour for being the “party of nostalgia” when the Conservative Party’s entire reason for being at the moment is to recreate Britain circa 1890.
Ever thought that your wallowing in prejudice explains why you keep losing ?
It's funny I forgot everything about the controversy except his posing with a broom (early indication of his propensity for props). One thing from the thread header that Mike certainly got right: 'If Boris was facing a more formidable challenger than Ken Livingstone then his re-election could look more doubtful.'
It's funny I forgot everything about the controversy except his posing with a broom (early indication of his propensity for props). One thing from the thread header that Mike certainly got right: 'If Boris was facing a more formidable challenger than Ken Livingstone then his re-election could look more doubtful.'
Against an unpopular Prime Minister, continuity Miliband might well be more than enough.
Ed Miliband got fewer votes than any Lab leader in my lifetime with the exception of Brown. Starmer is Ed Miliband with a couple of upsides. To win a majority Labour probably need to take Croydon South, Welwyn and Macclesfield alongside retaking the red wall which is a huge ask. Even Brown with the backdrop of economic chaos and a poor campaign lost less than 100 seats. So we’re potentially looking at a Lab SNP coalition as their most likely chance of government in 2024 and that in itself is enough to frighten the horses.
We musn't underestimate the appeal of image in politics. To many people Starmer looks far more familiarly and typically prime ministerial, like Blair or Cameron, than Miliband or Corbyn.
I’m not sure Boris looks more Prime Ministerial than Cameron, May or Brown but he’s achieved a victory to surpass all of them. To look Prime Ministerial in dark and difficult times like the Falklands or recent economic crisis is important, however if things are not so bad in 2025 then I suspect the country might side with BoJo optimism over the detail of a meek character like Starmer. I agree Starmer looks like a PM even if he doesn’t sound like one but if he does win his biggest challenge could be making a shad cab look like a government because it’s pretty thin gruel talent wise on those Labour benches.
If things are going well in 2024/5, the government wins anyway. If not, and the opposition looks plausible, the government loses. Simple as that.
(In other words, the key question is whether BorisandDom-ism works as a practical model of government.)
This was the case in 2010 but Cameron still came way short of a majority. To win 120 seats when Scotland isn’t in play will be incredibly difficult even if the government is shite. To win 120 after boundary changes near impossible. Starmer and his merry band of socialists probably won’t be looking as plausible as Cameron/Osborne did in 2010 either.
Let's see.
If I've read it right, the Boris and Dom theory is that there's a lot of human happiness just waiting to be unlocked by the freedoms of Brexit and the power of a genius-level Brains Trust in Downing Street. I'm not convinced, but they may be right.
If they are wrong, it could go Majorly wrong very quickly, and the required swing won't be a problem.
Boris will continually steal popular policies of other parties.
Labour's best chance to prevent that is to promote a suite of unpopular policies.
Again.
There ought to be a law against this. Not against you posting on here, that would be deeply illiberal, but against the Cons stealing Labour policies. They are always doing it and because the policies tend to be good they accrue credits with the public that are not genuinely merited. Be fine if it happened the other way around too but it never does. Labour do NOT masquerade as Tories. Just the once they did this - with their 'light touch' regulation of the City (aka "bankers know what they're doing, leave them be") - and it ended in utter disaster. A disaster that THEY were blamed for despite it being the one and only time they stole a big Tory policy. Our whole politics is skewed to the Right and badly needs reform.
It's funny I forgot everything about the controversy except his posing with a broom (early indication of his propensity for props). One thing from the thread header that Mike certainly got right: 'If Boris was facing a more formidable challenger than Ken Livingstone then his re-election could look more doubtful.'
I cant see any comments, can you?
As I recall comments were only archived back to a certain point (intro of Vanilla?), beginning of 2013 by the looks of it.
If I've read it right, the Boris and Dom theory is that there's a lot of human happiness just waiting to be unlocked by the freedoms of Brexit and the power of a genius-level Brains Trust in Downing Street. I'm not convinced, but they may be right.
If they are wrong, it could go Majorly wrong very quickly, and the required swing won't be a problem.
Why are the Tories so long in the Most Seats market? If they manage to reduce the number of MPs to 600, gerrymander the boundaries, disenfranchise significant chunks of the Labour vote, cower the BBC into submission, politicise the judiciary and civil service, use the apparatus of the state in the party interest, and give the mandate back to people living abroad (15 years+), then I’d have thought that a sensible price five years out would be sub 1/3.
If I've read it right, the Boris and Dom theory is that there's a lot of human happiness just waiting to be unlocked by the freedoms of Brexit and the power of a genius-level Brains Trust in Downing Street. I'm not convinced, but they may be right.
If they are wrong, it could go Majorly wrong very quickly, and the required swing won't be a problem.
But just imagine if they are right....
Sure. If they're right, Boris is PM for as long as he wants. But it's uncertain, and a heck of a gamble. Remember, though, that for every amazon.com, there are multiple boo.coms.
Why are the Tories so long in the Most Seats market? If they manage to reduce the number of MPs to 600, gerrymander the boundaries, disenfranchise significant chunks of the Labour vote, cower the BBC into submission, politicise the judiciary and civil service, use the apparatus of the state in the party interest, and give the mandate back to people living abroad (15 years+), then I’d have thought that a sensible price five years out would be sub 1/3.
Next UK GE - Most seats - best prices
Con 4/6 Lab 13/8 Any other party 33/1
The latest is that it's going to be kept at 650. As for gerrymandering, hard to see how they can do that when they aren't the one drawing the boundaries.
Based on the Liverpool U23s team playing today, the kids will be playing for Liverpool's first team today so the odds of Everton winning today at circa 2/1 look very generous.
Why are the Tories so long in the Most Seats market? If they manage to reduce the number of MPs to 600, gerrymander the boundaries, disenfranchise significant chunks of the Labour vote, cower the BBC into submission, politicise the judiciary and civil service, use the apparatus of the state in the party interest, and give the mandate back to people living abroad (15 years+), then I’d have thought that a sensible price five years out would be sub 1/3.
Next UK GE - Most seats - best prices
Con 4/6 Lab 13/8 Any other party 33/1
Labour need a 7% swing or a 2% lead for it to have most seats.
It's not impossible but very difficult, it would require a 1990's government meltdown.
So when is Iran going to retaliate? Still nothing so far.
I wouldn't be flying on any American flagged Airline for a while.
Fair, though one would imagine they will go for a military target given what the US did. A civilian target would lose them any kind of good will they still have among the weaker European nations.
Why are the Tories so long in the Most Seats market? If they manage to reduce the number of MPs to 600, gerrymander the boundaries, disenfranchise significant chunks of the Labour vote, cower the BBC into submission, politicise the judiciary and civil service, use the apparatus of the state in the party interest, and give the mandate back to people living abroad (15 years+), then I’d have thought that a sensible price five years out would be sub 1/3.
It's funny I forgot everything about the controversy except his posing with a broom (early indication of his propensity for props). One thing from the thread header that Mike certainly got right: 'If Boris was facing a more formidable challenger than Ken Livingstone then his re-election could look more doubtful.'
I cant see any comments, can you?
As I recall comments were only archived back to a certain point (intro of Vanilla?), beginning of 2013 by the looks of it.
Based on the Liverpool U23s team playing today, the kids will be playing for Liverpool's first team today so the odds of Everton winning today at circa 2/1 look very generous.
Why are the Tories so long in the Most Seats market? If they manage to reduce the number of MPs to 600, gerrymander the boundaries, disenfranchise significant chunks of the Labour vote, cower the BBC into submission, politicise the judiciary and civil service, use the apparatus of the state in the party interest, and give the mandate back to people living abroad (15 years+), then I’d have thought that a sensible price five years out would be sub 1/3.
Next UK GE - Most seats - best prices
Con 4/6 Lab 13/8 Any other party 33/1
What gerrymandering?
The bit where constituencies are made to be more equal, obviously.
Based on the Liverpool U23s team playing today, the kids will be playing for Liverpool's first team today so the odds of Everton winning today at circa 2/1 look very generous.
Betfair 13/8! The market knows the team
2/1 has long gone it seems
Dele 7/1 FGS with b365 is a decent bet I reckon in Middlesbrough vs Spurs, and 21/10 anytime. Prob on pens I'd say.
Boris will continually steal popular policies of other parties.
Labour's best chance to prevent that is to promote a suite of unpopular policies.
Again.
There ought to be a law against this. Not against you posting on here, that would be deeply illiberal, but against the Cons stealing Labour policies. They are always doing it and because the policies tend to be good they accrue credits with the public that are not genuinely merited. Be fine if it happened the other way around too but it never does. Labour do NOT masquerade as Tories. Just the once they did this - with their 'light touch' regulation of the City (aka "bankers know what they're doing, leave them be") - and it ended in utter disaster. A disaster that THEY were blamed for despite it being the one and only time they stole a big Tory policy. Our whole politics is skewed to the Right and badly needs reform.
Surely winning the argument is its own reward, as Our Jez has so passionately affirmed?
p.s. It wasn't just once. Gordon Brown literally copied Ken Clarke's spending plans for most of Labour's first term, leading to the latter effectively remaining Chancellor into the 21st century.
That was the Labour Party's most successful period in its history...
Why are the Tories so long in the Most Seats market? If they manage to reduce the number of MPs to 600, gerrymander the boundaries, disenfranchise significant chunks of the Labour vote, cower the BBC into submission, politicise the judiciary and civil service, use the apparatus of the state in the party interest, and give the mandate back to people living abroad (15 years+), then I’d have thought that a sensible price five years out would be sub 1/3.
Next UK GE - Most seats - best prices
Con 4/6 Lab 13/8 Any other party 33/1
What gerrymandering?
The bit where constituencies are made to be more equal, obviously.
The gerrymandering is allocating too few seats to Labour-leaning areas relative to their population, as has previously been explained.
Why are the Tories so long in the Most Seats market? If they manage to reduce the number of MPs to 600, gerrymander the boundaries, disenfranchise significant chunks of the Labour vote, cower the BBC into submission, politicise the judiciary and civil service, use the apparatus of the state in the party interest, and give the mandate back to people living abroad (15 years+), then I’d have thought that a sensible price five years out would be sub 1/3.
Next UK GE - Most seats - best prices
Con 4/6 Lab 13/8 Any other party 33/1
What gerrymandering?
The bit where constituencies are made to be more equal, obviously.
The gerrymandering is allocating too few seats to Labour-leaning areas relative to their population, as has previously been explained.
But have we ever allocated seats based on population?
It has always been based on electorates has it not?
Comments
"Dominic Raab has said Britain is “on the same page” as the US in relation to Friday’s assassination of the Iranian general Qassem Suleimani.
Amid continuing questions about the legal justification for US actions, Raab said the UK government was “sympathetic” to Washington’s situation.
Speaking on Sky News, Raab said of Suleimani: “Let’s be very clear: he was a regional menace, and we understand the position that the Americans found themselves in, and they have a right to exercise self-defence. They have explained the basis on which that was done, and we are sympathetic to the situation they found themselves in.”
Pivot complete from Raab.
Which is odd because when the waspi bung was first announced, with that calculator showing how much you'd get back, I felt sick to my stomach like that was it, we'd lost the majority again.
So I'd be interested to know whether that gained or lost Labour votes. It doesn't seem to have been as popular with the oldies I was expecting it to be, and it may have actively lost labour votes among younger age groups.
Labour 2019 combined the worst aspects of May's 2017 manifesto and Miliband's 2015 one. Like May's, there were policies apparently designed solely to repel voters. More importantly, like Miliband's it combined a rag bag of individually popular policies but with no guiding theme or prioritisation. Post-election surveys in 2015 found voters liked what Labour was saying but doubted its competence to implement those policies. As the American consultant Axelrod lampooned it, Vote Labour and win a microwave!
The Conservative government subsequently lifted policies from Labour, and even this time has a similar pledge on broadband. Deja vu.
On his video, while I think it’s correct that Labour needs to move WELL beyond Thatcher, it does however, I suspect, astutely address his selectariate:
https://twitter.com/philwoodford/status/1213561128334299139?s=21
“countries like south Korea managed super broadband up to 97% our free market laiseez faire capitalism has got us up to 10% at a snails pace hence we are struggling to be competitive in global productivity tables. Japan 97% too, and Scandinavia and Ireland copying the South Korea example to improve competitiveness and productivity of across all their nation. Labour’s broadband policy is based on ensuring no one left behind in all our streets, villages, towns and communities, right across our nation.
One of the most depressing things about our politics is the way Labour in particular wants to turn the clocks back and can't find anything positive to say about Britain. Even if I was left-wing I'd find Labour's view of the world very unappealing. Boris talks some absolute rubbish at times, but he has a degree of cheerfulness and optimism that is almost entirely absent on the left of politics.
Great recent example - David Warner.
EDIT: Same approach can work with Investment Funds.
I favour strong disincentives. Or to spin it in a more PC manner - strong incentives to use state schools.
For example - grants for uni for state school pupils doing certain degrees at certain places.
Probably something to do with Corbyn ejecting any barely decent prospective candidates from the party.
I suppose we still have Ian Lavery to raise the IQ average.
Yes.
Smart boy that Dunn if he’s now saying what eggs been saying all along.
This labour leadership election is all about Brexit and remain, very little else. Sure the word remain is dead, but not what it stood for.
There no way debate and argument had proved the trade deal we carefully built and honed with the worlds second largest economy and biggest trading bloc in the same continent as ourselves had been holding us back as a nation.
The remain argument was how from such vandalism and destruction do you grow something better than we had before?
You could forget the word remain once we brexit, whenever that is in the coming years, but not what remain stands for. What remain stood for If the country becomes poorer it will raise into question the amount of public spending thrown at socialist healthcare, support to struggling workers and welfare customary in this country. Also workers rights, Workers have come to enjoy and believe are their right but new trade deals play into the hands of MNC in terms of pay and conditions for workers. And you say none of this is relevant in this labour leadership contest?
And in 2024 those same voters will be moving away from Labour.
For my part I agree; don't think there's much point in banging on about rejoining until we see what's what.
I hesitate to align myself with Royalists, but, AIUI, during the lifetime of Cromwell there wasn't a lot of Royalist action. It was only when Tumbledown Dick took over that the movement for Restoration gained speed.
Although Y Doethr may well know better.
Pretty pragmatic if you ask me.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/05/scott-morrison-says-video-ad-on-adf-deployment-is-not-political-but-carries-his-message-to-australians
You end up with a rave on a train. That makes nobody happy.
https://www.theguardian.com/music/2017/apr/12/rave-london-underground-tube-mc-harry-shotta
"It was State Murder. How can anyone be so bloody stupid?
Did World War Three begin last Thursday night? I fear it may have done. Forgive my language, but on this occasion I think it justified. How can anyone possibly have been so bloody stupid? We know from history that assassinations can have limitless effects. And when the President of the United States orders the state murder (for this, alas, is what it was) of an Iranian general, it is hard to see a good end."
https://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/
It could provide Boris too, with his much desired Churchill credentials, Equally, it could prove to be his Blair moment.
Meanwhile, in non squirrel-related news: the Pound erases election gains amid no-deal Brexit concern.
https://twitter.com/theweeklytv/status/1128624880499355648
The point about the broadband issue is that it was an attempt (too off-the-wall in my view) to address issues of interest to non-Labour people, and certainly we should be doing that. I got a couple of people on the doorstep who liked the Waspi offer, but overall the programme with sudden add-ons like Waspi degenerated into being too much of everything without a clear central theme and lacking credibility. "We'll give everyone more stuff and it won't cost much" was the ultimate impression.
So far none of us are discussing the LibDem, by the way - when is it? A thread on that might be interesting.
A serious concern.
Labour's best chance to prevent that is to promote a suite of unpopular policies.
Again.
Both were crap decisions and at the time I and many thought Boris’s career at the top was in real peril due to that lack of judgement. However the riots disappeared and his iron fisted approach to the thieves won back support, a year later he won another 4 years and the rest is history.
ScoMo is lucky this is early on in his Premiership. There will be bushfires every year and he has a chance to show lessons have been learned and the state can become more effective at preventing and fighting the fires. He’s had a shocking week but he’s not without talent as a PM or relatable bloke and you’d be a fool to write him off. Unfortunately as with Boris there are plenty of fools on this forum and elsewhere who fail to grasp that their own reservations are not always shared by the majority of voters.
The nuclear winter from WWIII should also help with the Global Warming.
https://twitter.com/AgentP22/status/1213201535250898949?s=20
(In other words, the key question is whether BorisandDom-ism works as a practical model of government.)
https://cdn.theatlantic.com/assets/media/img/mt/2015/12/RTR2EF9L/lead_720_405.jpg?mod=1533691793
https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2011/08/08/is-boris-making-a-mistake-staying-on-holiday/
Did women born between 1950 and 1960 swing preferentially to Labour?
(I agree that the bung may have put some people off who realised they would be paying for it, but that is a harder effect to track).
It's funny I forgot everything about the controversy except his posing with a broom (early indication of his propensity for props). One thing from the thread header that Mike certainly got right: 'If Boris was facing a more formidable challenger than Ken Livingstone then his re-election could look more doubtful.'
If I've read it right, the Boris and Dom theory is that there's a lot of human happiness just waiting to be unlocked by the freedoms of Brexit and the power of a genius-level Brains Trust in Downing Street. I'm not convinced, but they may be right.
If they are wrong, it could go Majorly wrong very quickly, and the required swing won't be a problem.
Next UK GE - Most seats - best prices
Con 4/6
Lab 13/8
Any other party 33/1
Remember, though, that for every amazon.com, there are multiple boo.coms.
Let us all pray that Boris Johnson and OGH don't go on holiday at the same time.
It's not impossible but very difficult, it would require a 1990's government meltdown.
2/1 has long gone it seems
p.s. It wasn't just once. Gordon Brown literally copied Ken Clarke's spending plans for most of Labour's first term, leading to the latter effectively remaining Chancellor into the 21st century.
That was the Labour Party's most successful period in its history...
Classic Dom.
It has always been based on electorates has it not?