Categories
Options
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Point of no return
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Point of no return
When Emily Thornberry threw an early hat into what is likely to become a crowded Labour leadership ring she did so with a vow to step down if it ever became clear, from the polls and her colleagues, that she couldn’t win a future election as a sign of her loyalty to the party.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Two questions occur to me:
a) how closely are leaders' ratings at a given moment correlated to opinion polls scores?
b) what are ET's current negative numbers with the public, amongst those who have actually heard of her?
Interesting that BoJo and Blair in 2005 were almost as unpopular as Sir John Major. I guess governments don't always lose elections - sometimes opposition parties do too ...
https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1213706896613482497?s=21
Wallace also urged deescalation when he spoke to the American Secretary of Defense, Mark Esper (although probably not just because that is what Jeremy Corbyn said he should do).
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50996630
Edit: spelling
These circumstances didn’t really work after 1922 with mass democratic systems starting to change the rules, so new roles were created modelled on a system the Liberals has devised in the 1890s after Rosebery’s resignation. This meant there was one leader who became the key public face of the party. The first holders were Bonar Law (Unionist, preciously leader of the Unionists in the House of Commons from 1911-1921) and Ramsay Macdonald (a pre-war chairman of the Labour Party).
So if drawing historical parallels, that’s where the line is drawn.
Of course there’s another argument that it could be drawn in the 1990s when party members and not MPs started electing the leaders...
Classic champagne socialist.
If I were looking to reconnect with disaffected Northerners I wouldn't go for Thornberry.
"....targeted 52 Iranian sites (representing the 52 American hostages taken by Iran many years ago), some at a very high level & important to Iran & the Iranian culture, and those targets, and Iran itself, WILL BE HIT VERY FAST AND VERY HARD. The USA wants no more threats!"
Leaving aside the more important matters, it's oxymoronic to demand no more threats whilst making one.
Identity is becoming the battleground of politics. Being seen to mock the English flag isn't going to play well in England, and reinforces a current negative perception many people in the Midlands/North have about Labour not only not being patriotic, but seeming to actively dislike this country.
If Labour want to do better then dropping crazy bullshit like reparations for the British Empire would be a great way to start. Even better would be cutting foreign aid in half and redirecting that half into transport and internet infrastructure in the Midlands/North.
People buy papers they want to read . There is a preponderance of right of centre newspapers. .. but if people did not buy them.... Could it be that the Mirror is a crap rag that few want to read and no one has devised a format for a left of centre paper that people actually want to buy.... I wonder why?
The Swedes have an interesting system of a levy on advertising which is used to subsidise the cost of printing newspapers with a significantly different viewpoint (left, right, whatever) from those already on the market. An independent board decides whether there is a significant differnce - so far as I know, without much controversy. But with the dead tree market dying anyway, it's becoming less important.
Another excellent Corporeal header, by the way.
The lowest rating by Richard Leonard, current FAV (12/1) Unionist candidate to be FM, is -33, so well below the point of no return. And yet SLab cannot ditch him as there is no one better waiting in the wings. The best SLab leader-in-waiting by far - Ian Murray - is sitting in the wrong legislature.
If anyone wants an illustration of why so many Scots support independence, then consider that the following leaders have been forced upon the country despite being immensely unpopular there:
Boris Johnson -34*
Theresa May -58*
(David Cameron: can’t find, but they were similar to May’s)
(*these are from properly-weighted, full-sample Scottish polls. If you look at the sub-samples then both Johnson and May have much worse lowest ratings: in the minus 60 to 70 area.)
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1213751412171137025?s=20
On the first part, I don't buy Iran as public enemy No. 1 - it becomes ever more evident that in most cases 'our' preferred side of the Muslim equation are 'the baddies'. However I don't expect a Damascene conversion on that, and if Iran hasn't been keeping their side of the Nuclear deal, it is right that we say so.
Would probably work on the Greens.
(Incidentally, the SNP+SGP vote at UK GE 2019 was actually 46%, up 1.3 points on the 2014 referendum. And don’t forget that a significant minority of SLab voters also support independence. The direction of travel is clear.)
Could work very well.
Mr. kle4, maybe but it's a pretty natural sentiment to come up with.
It was never published, but an early story draft I wrote had a description I learnt later was very similar to something in a George RR Martin book.
This would correct that wrong.
In 2014 Yes got 44.7%, in 2019 the SNP and Greens combined got 46%, just 1% higher, the direction of travel is clear, there is no movement of any significance towards independence and thus no mandate for indyref2 (also don't forget not all SNP voters back independence either).
This looks like a Governemnt that is going to push ahead with decades worth of infrastructure in the first part of its first term.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State-sponsored_terrorism
Maybe Jess Phillips could go with the full Elsa Lanchester "Bride of Frankenstein" look?
But I also agree with Starmer on our Brexit stance and his general approach of "left instincts but pragmatic". I thought his much-admired video was weak, though - too much about past struggles, not enough about what we should do next.
Still keeping an open mind.
https://mobile.twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1213575135300587524
Edit: Someone I know who voted Labour did specifically mention the broadband policy to me, even though they were highly sceptical it would work or even happen, but they liked the intent.
https://twitter.com/runthinkwrite/status/1213474287442640896?s=21
We intend to bring full fibre and gigabit-capable broadband to every home and business across the UK by 2025. We know how difficult it will be, so we have announced a raft of legislative changes to accelerate progress and £5 billion of new public funding to connect premises which are not commercially viable.
While the rest of us have just joined the 2020s!
"It's not just about how much you spend it's about how you spend it."
It's that sort of statement. Duck billed platitude.