If does get the job, Starmer better be bloody good at it. 'Cuz the Sisters are going to be looking for the tiniest of openings in which to insert their stilettos.
What does Starmer actually stand for - outside of his confused position on Brexit?
No-one knows.
He has no policy background that anyone can discern.
People are looking at his pre-MP career and then projecting from there. And also being named Kier gives some people the impression that he is some sort of heir to Hardie.
He is pretty much a personality free zone. There is no spark of life, no passion. Yes, he can appear competent and confident (in a technocrat sort of way) - but he is in no way inspirational.
Perhaps Labour needs a period of dull leadership.
But Starmer has to explain his role in propping up Corbyn. He has to explain why he stood by and let the anti-Semitism rot Labour from within. He might not be a fellow traveller, but he made it possible for Corbyn and his clique to continue in power.
He isn't the solution to the decline in Labour fortunes. He would be a less awful choice than RLB - but he isn't the knight some people seem to be thinking he is.
Who would you like to see? Who would get you voting Labour with a passion that takes friends & family by surprise?
Has anyone seen a market on Leonard’s successor? They can’t possibly be daft enough to go into the Scottish GE with that numptie as their candidate for FM.
Will the Tories go for Carlaw? Very brave. Brave in the YM meaning.
And will the cowed SLDs stick with Angry Wullie?
Holyrood 21 is approaching fast. If they want a chance of preventing yet another pro-independence majority then they’ll need three new, competent leaders. Big task. Little time.
I might be wrong but I think I remember Leonard saying he will carry on at least until the next Holyrood election. Sticking limpet like to post after electoral disasters seems to be his one consistent characteristic.
So, Sturgeon v Leonard, with Carlaw and Wullie fighting for the scraps.
That’ll explain why the shortest-priced Unionist to be next FM is Richard Leonard, at 12/1.
What does Starmer actually stand for - outside of his confused position on Brexit?
No-one knows.
He has no policy background that anyone can discern.
People are looking at his pre-MP career and then projecting from there. And also being named Kier gives some people the impression that he is some sort of heir to Hardie.
He is pretty much a personality free zone. There is no spark of life, no passion. Yes, he can appear competent and confident (in a technocrat sort of way) - but he is in no way inspirational.
Perhaps Labour needs a period of dull leadership.
But Starmer has to explain his role in propping up Corbyn. He has to explain why he stood by and let the anti-Semitism rot Labour from within. He might not be a fellow traveller, but he made it possible for Corbyn and his clique to continue in power.
He isn't the solution to the decline in Labour fortunes. He would be a less awful choice than RLB - but he isn't the knight some people seem to be thinking he is.
Exactly - what are Starmer's policies going to be?
Hiking income tax, Corp tax, CGT, IHT, etc? Tons of nationalisations? Attacks on property rights? Abolition of private schools? Open borders? Extending voting rights to all residents? Or is he going to explicitly dump all that crap and head back to the centre?
What about the antisemitism crisis? If he doesn't spend the first year of his leadership ruthlessly expelling the antisemites in a very public manner, then the taint that attached to Corbyn will stick to him too. And if he does, the old cult will haaaaaate him.
What about the Labour Party itself? All the hard left loons and Momentumites are still there. Do Starmer boosters really think Tory voters are stupid enough to overlook the radicals and extremists standing a step behind the bland man in a suit? I don't think they will be.
Has anyone seen a market on Leonard’s successor? They can’t possibly be daft enough to go into the Scottish GE with that numptie as their candidate for FM.
Will the Tories go for Carlaw? Very brave. Brave in the YM meaning.
And will the cowed SLDs stick with Angry Wullie?
Holyrood 21 is approaching fast. If they want a chance of preventing yet another pro-independence majority then they’ll need three new, competent leaders. Big task. Little time.
Even if the SNP got the 45% they got at the general election at Holyrood 2021 that would be down on the 46.5% they got at the Holyrood 2016 elections
As always, you omit the pro-independence Scottish Green Party from your analysis.
Has anyone seen a market on Leonard’s successor? They can’t possibly be daft enough to go into the Scottish GE with that numptie as their candidate for FM.
Will the Tories go for Carlaw? Very brave. Brave in the YM meaning.
And will the cowed SLDs stick with Angry Wullie?
Holyrood 21 is approaching fast. If they want a chance of preventing yet another pro-independence majority then they’ll need three new, competent leaders. Big task. Little time.
Even if the SNP got the 45% they got at the general election at Holyrood 2021 that would be down on the 46.5% they got at the Holyrood 2016 elections
If SNP and Greens are just short of a majority in 2021 - which seems possible - that leaves an exquisite instrument of torture for Scottish Labour.
Do they support the SNP and send their remaining Unionist voters away in a stampede?
Or do they enter Coalition with the Tories and say a final goodbye to all their Scottish seats?
They’ll have to support the SNP. The Con/Lab coalition is simply not an option any more.
Has anyone seen a market on Leonard’s successor? They can’t possibly be daft enough to go into the Scottish GE with that numptie as their candidate for FM.
Will the Tories go for Carlaw? Very brave. Brave in the YM meaning.
And will the cowed SLDs stick with Angry Wullie?
Holyrood 21 is approaching fast. If they want a chance of preventing yet another pro-independence majority then they’ll need three new, competent leaders. Big task. Little time.
Even if the SNP got the 45% they got at the general election at Holyrood 2021 that would be down on the 46.5% they got at the Holyrood 2016 elections
As always, you omit the pro-independence Scottish Green Party from your analysis.
The Greens score is negligible in Holyrood constituency elections and even on the list the latest Holyrood polling has the SNP down more than the Scottish Greens are up
Has anyone seen a market on Leonard’s successor? They can’t possibly be daft enough to go into the Scottish GE with that numptie as their candidate for FM.
Will the Tories go for Carlaw? Very brave. Brave in the YM meaning.
And will the cowed SLDs stick with Angry Wullie?
Holyrood 21 is approaching fast. If they want a chance of preventing yet another pro-independence majority then they’ll need three new, competent leaders. Big task. Little time.
I might be wrong but I think I remember Leonard saying he will carry on at least until the next Holyrood election. Sticking limpet like to post after electoral disasters seems to be his one consistent characteristic.
So, Sturgeon v Leonard, with Carlaw and Wullie fighting for the scraps.
That’ll explain why the shortest-priced Unionist to be next FM is Richard Leonard, at 12/1.
Wullie is 100/1.
Shortest Tory is David Coburn, at 200/1.
I like the look of that Kate Forbes price: 8/1.
Leonard leads the third largest party by MSPs and voteshare. Last month, their vote went into free fall - down by 205,000. Why would he be the one duking it out with Sturgeon to be FM?
Has anyone seen a market on Leonard’s successor? They can’t possibly be daft enough to go into the Scottish GE with that numptie as their candidate for FM.
Will the Tories go for Carlaw? Very brave. Brave in the YM meaning.
And will the cowed SLDs stick with Angry Wullie?
Holyrood 21 is approaching fast. If they want a chance of preventing yet another pro-independence majority then they’ll need three new, competent leaders. Big task. Little time.
Even if the SNP got the 45% they got at the general election at Holyrood 2021 that would be down on the 46.5% they got at the Holyrood 2016 elections
If SNP and Greens are just short of a majority in 2021 - which seems possible - that leaves an exquisite instrument of torture for Scottish Labour.
Do they support the SNP and send their remaining Unionist voters away in a stampede?
Or do they enter Coalition with the Tories and say a final goodbye to all their Scottish seats?
They do neither, they abstain on the First Minister vote allowing Sturgeon to scrape back in but vote down indyref2 killing off independence hopes for another decade
Has anyone seen a market on Leonard’s successor? They can’t possibly be daft enough to go into the Scottish GE with that numptie as their candidate for FM.
Will the Tories go for Carlaw? Very brave. Brave in the YM meaning.
And will the cowed SLDs stick with Angry Wullie?
Holyrood 21 is approaching fast. If they want a chance of preventing yet another pro-independence majority then they’ll need three new, competent leaders. Big task. Little time.
Even if the SNP got the 45% they got at the general election at Holyrood 2021 that would be down on the 46.5% they got at the Holyrood 2016 elections
As always, you omit the pro-independence Scottish Green Party from your analysis.
The Greens score is negligible in Holyrood constituency elections and even on the list the latest Holyrood polling has the SNP did more than the Scottish Greens are up
What matters, as in all parliamentary elections, is the final arithmetic. Yet another pro-independence majority is looking far more likely than a hung parliament. And a Unionist government in Edinburgh must be a ridiculously long possibility. 200/1?
'For the first time in living memory, defending their new Midlands and Northern seats, the Tories have a powerful electoral imperative to govern as “One Nation Conservatives”.'
Anyone care to speculate on the geographical boundaries of this 'One Nation'?
The bits of England the author likes and the bits of Wales that the author likes. It specifically does not include Scotland and Northern Ireland. As I have said to the point of tedium, many people in the south of England find it difficult to understand that Scotland and Northern Ireland are part of the United Kingdom and will actively refuse to learn.
Politically divided islands are an affront to logic. Re-uniting Ireland and consolidating Great Britain are reasonable objectives for us. Borneo, Hispaniola and St Martins can be left to others.
What does Starmer actually stand for - outside of his confused position on Brexit?
No-one knows.
He has no policy background that anyone can discern.
People are looking at his pre-MP career and then projecting from there. And also being named Kier gives some people the impression that he is some sort of heir to Hardie.
He is pretty much a personality free zone. There is no spark of life, no passion. Yes, he can appear competent and confident (in a technocrat sort of way) - but he is in no way inspirational.
Perhaps Labour needs a period of dull leadership.
But Starmer has to explain his role in propping up Corbyn. He has to explain why he stood by and let the anti-Semitism rot Labour from within. He might not be a fellow traveller, but he made it possible for Corbyn and his clique to continue in power.
He isn't the solution to the decline in Labour fortunes. He would be a less awful choice than RLB - but he isn't the knight some people seem to be thinking he is.
Two men are running away from an angry bear. The bear is gaining. Suddenly, one of the men stops and puts on running shoes.
‘Are you crazy?’ Shouts the other man with the little breath he has left. ‘They won’t help you outrun the bear!’
‘I’m not trying to outrun the bear,’ replies his friend as he overtakes him. ‘All I have to do is outrun you.’
Your criticisms would be valid if there was a ‘knight’ in shining armour to rescue Labour. There isn’t. The sad truth is Labour has for some years looked utterly bereft of leadership, ideas and imagination. That’s how a nutter like Corbyn won in the first place. He was at least different and the other candidates were pretty underwhelming.
So Starmer is probably the right man to do the Michael Howard role for a couple of years, and scrabble about to see if their is anything there to work with.
And if not, better for Labour they are led by him than Ian Lavery.
Idly wondering how Starmer would have done last time if he had stood agains the rest without Corbyn - Cooper, Burnham, Liz... Not sure he would have won.
Quite right. Keir the Seer can't beat Boris at the cranky-caper stuff. That would be like asking Sir Thomas More to compete with Dicky Pearce. No, Keir just needs to stay patient and cool. Soon enough the experts will reclaim the earth and Keir must position himself as their talisman.
That’s the most impressive thing Boris has ever done in my opinion. Respect.
But if you are banking on Kier, Um, Stammer to save the Earth, forget it. THERE IS NO WAY HE IS BECOMING LABOUR LEADER.
I’ll tell you who the next Labour leader is right now, get on whilst odds long. David lammy
I actually think Lammy is good value, and would also probably do a better job than Drear Starmer. But his track record (finishing fourth in the 2015 London Mayoral selection behind Diane Abbott) is not exactly encouraging. I'm not sure he has much to say to Labour members outside London, either.
Lammy? All they need do is show his Mastermind performance on a loop to show how lacking he is
Has anyone seen a market on Leonard’s successor? They can’t possibly be daft enough to go into the Scottish GE with that numptie as their candidate for FM.
Will the Tories go for Carlaw? Very brave. Brave in the YM meaning.
And will the cowed SLDs stick with Angry Wullie?
Holyrood 21 is approaching fast. If they want a chance of preventing yet another pro-independence majority then they’ll need three new, competent leaders. Big task. Little time.
Even if the SNP got the 45% they got at the general election at Holyrood 2021 that would be down on the 46.5% they got at the Holyrood 2016 elections
If SNP and Greens are just short of a majority in 2021 - which seems possible - that leaves an exquisite instrument of torture for Scottish Labour.
Do they support the SNP and send their remaining Unionist voters away in a stampede?
Or do they enter Coalition with the Tories and say a final goodbye to all their Scottish seats?
They do neither, they abstain on the First Minister vote allowing Sturgeon to scrape back in but vote down indyref2 killing off independence hopes for another decade
At least there's implicit acceptance that if there's a pro indy majority at Holyrood, there'll be Indyref II asap. That is what you're saying, right?
Starmer feels like a good choice for Labour. I can already detect the whiff of panic amongst the Tories. In their heart of hearts they must know that the 'Boris' phenomenon is likely to have a very short shelf life, with the public soon becoming weary of its inherent frivolousness. The northern oiks will melt away ('Voted Tory once. Nivver again!') and they'll be staring at a lot of burnt bridges. Starmer the Charmer might well be the one to capitalize on the Tories' Brexit recklessness.
Agreed. And despite my leanings to a more radical politics than Starmer will probably embrace, I'm on board. More than this, I'm feeling the 1st stirrings of excitement. Which is great because the biggest impact of Dec 12 on me (other than the humongous betting win which did not help) was a loss of interest in politics. Imagine if end 2020 sees Trump out and Starmer leading Johnson by miles in "Best PM" polls having just completed a triumphant series of open air meetings in left behind places talking to white working class audiences about white working class concerns.
Because underestimating Boris has worked out so well thus far?
'For the first time in living memory, defending their new Midlands and Northern seats, the Tories have a powerful electoral imperative to govern as “One Nation Conservatives”.'
Anyone care to speculate on the geographical boundaries of this 'One Nation'?
The bits of England the author likes and the bits of Wales that the author likes. It specifically does not include Scotland and Northern Ireland. As I have said to the point of tedium, many people in the south of England find it difficult to understand that Scotland and Northern Ireland are part of the United Kingdom and will actively refuse to learn.
Politically divided islands are an affront to logic. Re-uniting Ireland and consolidating Great Britain are reasonable objectives for us. Borneo, Hispaniola and St Martins can be left to others.
Has anyone seen a market on Leonard’s successor? They can’t possibly be daft enough to go into the Scottish GE with that numptie as their candidate for FM.
Will the Tories go for Carlaw? Very brave. Brave in the YM meaning.
And will the cowed SLDs stick with Angry Wullie?
Holyrood 21 is approaching fast. If they want a chance of preventing yet another pro-independence majority then they’ll need three new, competent leaders. Big task. Little time.
Even if the SNP got the 45% they got at the general election at Holyrood 2021 that would be down on the 46.5% they got at the Holyrood 2016 elections
If SNP and Greens are just short of a majority in 2021 - which seems possible - that leaves an exquisite instrument of torture for Scottish Labour.
Do they support the SNP and send their remaining Unionist voters away in a stampede?
Or do they enter Coalition with the Tories and say a final goodbye to all their Scottish seats?
They’ll have to support the SNP. The Con/Lab coalition is simply not an option any more.
To misquote Mandy Rhys Davies, you would, wouldn’t you? I wonder though if it seems that simple to the Labour high command.
The problem Labour have is independence is now seen as left wing, and unionism as right wing. So the SNP has become the party of choice for left wing voters. Meanwhile, unionist voters are abandoning Labour because it’s on the left.
But at the same time, their remaining voters are therefore clearly more unionist than left wing. So the logical strategic choice to hold on to them is the Tories. Propping up the SNP could see those voters run away, with no guarantee the others would return.
At the same time, if they do that, farewell to the central belt, hello chaos in England as they try to explain to Aaron Peters and Eleanor Penny why the Tories are better coalition partners than a left wing party.
It’s hard to see how they ride these particular horses. Hence why I see it as an instrument of torture for them.
Quite right. Keir the Seer can't beat Boris at the cranky-caper stuff. That would be like asking Sir Thomas More to compete with Dicky Pearce. No, Keir just needs to stay patient and cool. Soon enough the experts will reclaim the earth and Keir must position himself as their talisman.
That’s the most impressive thing Boris has ever done in my opinion. Respect.
But if you are banking on Kier, Um, Stammer to save the Earth, forget it. THERE IS NO WAY HE IS BECOMING LABOUR LEADER.
I’ll tell you who the next Labour leader is right now, get on whilst odds long. David lammy
I actually think Lammy is good value, and would also probably do a better job than Drear Starmer. But his track record (finishing fourth in the 2015 London Mayoral selection behind Diane Abbott) is not exactly encouraging. I'm not sure he has much to say to Labour members outside London, either.
Lammy? All they need do is show his Mastermind performance on a loop to show how lacking he is
Has anyone seen a market on Leonard’s successor? They can’t possibly be daft enough to go into the Scottish GE with that numptie as their candidate for FM.
Will the Tories go for Carlaw? Very brave. Brave in the YM meaning.
And will the cowed SLDs stick with Angry Wullie?
Holyrood 21 is approaching fast. If they want a chance of preventing yet another pro-independence majority then they’ll need three new, competent leaders. Big task. Little time.
I might be wrong but I think I remember Leonard saying he will carry on at least until the next Holyrood election. Sticking limpet like to post after electoral disasters seems to be his one consistent characteristic.
So, Sturgeon v Leonard, with Carlaw and Wullie fighting for the scraps.
That’ll explain why the shortest-priced Unionist to be next FM is Richard Leonard, at 12/1.
Wullie is 100/1.
Shortest Tory is David Coburn, at 200/1.
I like the look of that Kate Forbes price: 8/1.
Leonard leads the third largest party by MSPs and voteshare. Last month, their vote went into free fall - down by 205,000. Why would he be the one duking it out with Sturgeon to be FM?
The electoral cycle.
16 months of the already profoundly unpopular The Clown all over the media, and 16 months of calm, intelligent Starmer.
By May 2021, the Ruth Davidson Party will be a distant memory.
This will be a good, old-fashioned SNP vs SLab fight. And Leonard ain’t no prize fighter.
What does Starmer actually stand for - outside of his confused position on Brexit?
No-one knows.
He has no policy background that anyone can discern.
People are looking at his pre-MP career and then projecting from there. And also being named Kier gives some people the impression that he is some sort of heir to Hardie.
He is pretty much a personality free zone. There is no spark of life, no passion. Yes, he can appear competent and confident (in a technocrat sort of way) - but he is in no way inspirational.
Perhaps Labour needs a period of dull leadership.
But Starmer has to explain his role in propping up Corbyn. He has to explain why he stood by and let the anti-Semitism rot Labour from within. He might not be a fellow traveller, but he made it possible for Corbyn and his clique to continue in power.
He isn't the solution to the decline in Labour fortunes. He would be a less awful choice than RLB - but he isn't the knight some people seem to be thinking he is.
Exactly - what are Starmer's policies going to be?
Hiking income tax, Corp tax, CGT, IHT, etc? Tons of nationalisations? Attacks on property rights? Abolition of private schools? Open borders? Extending voting rights to all residents? Or is he going to explicitly dump all that crap and head back to the centre?
What about the antisemitism crisis? If he doesn't spend the first year of his leadership ruthlessly expelling the antisemites in a very public manner, then the taint that attached to Corbyn will stick to him too. And if he does, the old cult will haaaaaate him.
What about the Labour Party itself? All the hard left loons and Momentumites are still there. Do Starmer boosters really think Tory voters are stupid enough to overlook the radicals and extremists standing a step behind the bland man in a suit? I don't think they will be.
The antisemitism problem should be fairly easy to fix. Just do something similar to what Hague did in 1997 to address 'Tory Sleaze': set up a committee, comprising various venerable jewish and non-jewish independents, that will investigate any allegations and promise to implement whatever it recommends. Okay, it might result in a few of Jezza's old mates being thrown out, but who cares?
Has anyone seen a market on Leonard’s successor? They can’t possibly be daft enough to go into the Scottish GE with that numptie as their candidate for FM.
Will the Tories go for Carlaw? Very brave. Brave in the YM meaning.
And will the cowed SLDs stick with Angry Wullie?
Holyrood 21 is approaching fast. If they want a chance of preventing yet another pro-independence majority then they’ll need three new, competent leaders. Big task. Little time.
I might be wrong but I think I remember Leonard saying he will carry on at least until the next Holyrood election. Sticking limpet like to post after electoral disasters seems to be his one consistent characteristic.
So, Sturgeon v Leonard, with Carlaw and Wullie fighting for the scraps.
That’ll explain why the shortest-priced Unionist to be next FM is Richard Leonard, at 12/1.
Wullie is 100/1.
Shortest Tory is David Coburn, at 200/1.
I like the look of that Kate Forbes price: 8/1.
Leonard leads the third largest party by MSPs and voteshare. Last month, their vote went into free fall - down by 205,000. Why would he be the one duking it out with Sturgeon to be FM?
The electoral cycle.
16 months of the already profoundly unpopular The Clown all over the media, and 16 months of calm, intelligent Starmer.
By May 2021, the Ruth Davidson Party will be a distant memory.
This will be a good, old-fashioned SNP vs SLab fight. And Leonard ain’t no prize fighter.
If that’s what you think, fine. Forgive me if I address it with scepticism until we know what’s going to happen on March 9th - which whatever happens will certainly drive The Clown off front pages for some time - and who the new Tory leader in Scotland is.
But Starmer has to explain his role in propping up Corbyn. He has to explain why he stood by and let the anti-Semitism rot Labour from within. He might not be a fellow traveller, but he made it possible for Corbyn and his clique to continue in power.
He isn't the solution to the decline in Labour fortunes. He would be a less awful choice than RLB - but he isn't the knight some people seem to be thinking he is.
Starmer doesn't need to "explain" these matters if he's elected. What he needs to do is take bold actions which show he's different.
If he in fact deals hard and fast with incidents of antisemitism as leader, then his position on that matter is then clear, and the approach of his Labour Party likewise. Similarly, if he in fact deals with the "party within a party" issue, casting Milne etc into the outer darkness, and building a team from all wings of the party, then there are no doubts about the sort of leader he plans to be.
This stuff about "serving under Corbyn" is of interest only to politics obsessives. Starmer is a Labour MP, so served under the twice elected Labour leader. Nobody from the active "resistance" to Corbyn is a serious leadership contender, and several have left the party. And even if they were, it's a recipe for continued civil war - Starmer's appeal is partly that he's far better placed to ask for loyalty from Corbynistas because he was pretty loyal when their man was in place, so there's no hypocrisy as there was when Corbyn demanded loyalty despite having been a career rebel.
Will association with the "Corbyn regime" hurt Starmer in itself, even if he takes steps to mark out a different approach? I doubt it. Corbyn is already old news, and will only fade further. He was never PM or even close to it - the hypothetical about how a Corbyn Government might have played out is a parlour game.
What does Starmer actually stand for - outside of his confused position on Brexit?
No-one knows.
He has no policy background that anyone can discern.
People are looking at his pre-MP career and then projecting from there. And also being named Kier gives some people the impression that he is some sort of heir to Hardie.
He is pretty much a personality free zone. There is no spark of life, no passion. Yes, he can appear competent and confident (in a technocrat sort of way) - but he is in no way inspirational.
Perhaps Labour needs a period of dull leadership.
But Starmer has to explain his role in propping up Corbyn. He has to explain why he stood by and let the anti-Semitism rot Labour from within. He might not be a fellow traveller, but he made it possible for Corbyn and his clique to continue in power.
He isn't the solution to the decline in Labour fortunes. He would be a less awful choice than RLB - but he isn't the knight some people seem to be thinking he is.
Exactly - what are Starmer's policies going to be?
Hiking income tax, Corp tax, CGT, IHT, etc? Tons of nationalisations? Attacks on property rights? Abolition of private schools? Open borders? Extending voting rights to all residents? Or is he going to explicitly dump all that crap and head back to the centre?
What about the antisemitism crisis? If he doesn't spend the first year of his leadership ruthlessly expelling the antisemites in a very public manner, then the taint that attached to Corbyn will stick to him too. And if he does, the old cult will haaaaaate him.
What about the Labour Party itself? All the hard left loons and Momentumites are still there. Do Starmer boosters really think Tory voters are stupid enough to overlook the radicals and extremists standing a step behind the bland man in a suit? I don't think they will be.
The antisemitism problem should be fairly easy to fix. Just do something similar to what Hague did in 1997 to address 'Tory Sleaze': set up a committee, comprising various venerable jewish and non-jewish independents, that will investigate any allegations and promise to implement whatever it recommends. Okay, it might result in a few of Jezza's old mates being thrown out, but who cares?
Has anyone seen a market on Leonard’s successor? They can’t possibly be daft enough to go into the Scottish GE with that numptie as their candidate for FM.
Will the Tories go for Carlaw? Very brave. Brave in the YM meaning.
And will the cowed SLDs stick with Angry Wullie?
Holyrood 21 is approaching fast. If they want a chance of preventing yet another pro-independence majority then they’ll need three new, competent leaders. Big task. Little time.
Even if the SNP got the 45% they got at the general election at Holyrood 2021 that would be down on the 46.5% they got at the Holyrood 2016 elections
As always, you omit the pro-independence Scottish Green Party from your analysis.
The Greens score is negligible in Holyrood constituency elections and even on the list the latest Holyrood polling has the SNP did more than the Scottish Greens are up
What matters, as in all parliamentary elections, is the final arithmetic. Yet another pro-independence majority is looking far more likely than a hung parliament. And a Unionist government in Edinburgh must be a ridiculously long possibility. 200/1?
Not at all, the latest Holyrood polling gives a clear swing to Unionist parties since 2016 so a Unionist majority looks a strong possibility in 2021 even if the SNP lead a minority government Sturgeon would have been neutered and forced to stick to domestic policy and drop independence for the rest of her term
What does Starmer actually stand for - outside of his confused position on Brexit?
No-one knows.
He has no policy background that anyone can discern.
People are looking at his pre-MP career and then projecting from there. And also being named Kier gives some people the impression that he is some sort of heir to Hardie.
He is pretty much a personality free zone. There is no spark of life, no passion. Yes, he can appear competent and confident (in a technocrat sort of way) - but he is in no way inspirational.
Perhaps Labour needs a period of dull leadership.
But Starmer has to explain his role in propping up Corbyn. He has to explain why he stood by and let the anti-Semitism rot Labour from within. He might not be a fellow traveller, but he made it possible for Corbyn and his clique to continue in power.
He isn't the solution to the decline in Labour fortunes. He would be a less awful choice than RLB - but he isn't the knight some people seem to be thinking he is.
Who would you like to see? Who would get you voting Labour with a passion that takes friends & family by surprise?
It is more a matter of what I would like to see from a centre-left party
1 - A party that does not play identity politics 2 - A party that does not jump on the outrage bus at every opportunity 3 - A party that opposes where opposition is needed, supports where agreement actually exists and has a positive policy platform 4 - A party that does not try to believe it is morally better than everyone else on the planet. Having a different world view does not automatically make you evil. 5 - A party that disowns those who support violence as part of political discourse 6 - A party that puts the realistic ahead of the idealistic. It is good to have aspirations - but you have to have a plan that can actually deliver on them
I might not want to vote for such a party - but I could, at least, respect it. And not fear it winning
What does Starmer actually stand for - outside of his confused position on Brexit?
No-one knows.
He has no policy background that anyone can discern.
People are looking at his pre-MP career and then projecting from there. And also being named Kier gives some people the impression that he is some sort of heir to Hardie.
He is pretty much a personality free zone. There is no spark of life, no passion. Yes, he can appear competent and confident (in a technocrat sort of way) - but he is in no way inspirational.
Perhaps Labour needs a period of dull leadership.
But Starmer has to explain his role in propping up Corbyn. He has to explain why he stood by and let the anti-Semitism rot Labour from within. He might not be a fellow traveller, but he made it possible for Corbyn and his clique to continue in power.
He isn't the solution to the decline in Labour fortunes. He would be a less awful choice than RLB - but he isn't the knight some people seem to be thinking he is.
Exactly - what are Starmer's policies going to be?
Hiking income tax, Corp tax, CGT, IHT, etc? Tons of nationalisations? Attacks on property rights? Abolition of private schools? Open borders? Extending voting rights to all residents? Or is he going to explicitly dump all that crap and head back to the centre?
What about the antisemitism crisis? If he doesn't spend the first year of his leadership ruthlessly expelling the antisemites in a very public manner, then the taint that attached to Corbyn will stick to him too. And if he does, the old cult will haaaaaate him.
What about the Labour Party itself? All the hard left loons and Momentumites are still there. Do Starmer boosters really think Tory voters are stupid enough to overlook the radicals and extremists standing a step behind the bland man in a suit? I don't think they will be.
The antisemitism problem should be fairly easy to fix. Just do something similar to what Hague did in 1997 to address 'Tory Sleaze': set up a committee, comprising various venerable jewish and non-jewish independents, that will investigate any allegations and promise to implement whatever it recommends. Okay, it might result in a few of Jezza's old mates being thrown out, but who cares?
You long-grass committee isn't going to do the job whn the ECHR reports....
That is going to be a seminal anti-semite moment for Labour.
Has anyone seen a market on Leonard’s successor? They can’t possibly be daft enough to go into the Scottish GE with that numptie as their candidate for FM.
Will the Tories go for Carlaw? Very brave. Brave in the YM meaning.
And will the cowed SLDs stick with Angry Wullie?
Holyrood 21 is approaching fast. If they want a chance of preventing yet another pro-independence majority then they’ll need three new, competent leaders. Big task. Little time.
Even if the SNP got the 45% they got at the general election at Holyrood 2021 that would be down on the 46.5% they got at the Holyrood 2016 elections
If SNP and Greens are just short of a majority in 2021 - which seems possible - that leaves an exquisite instrument of torture for Scottish Labour.
Do they support the SNP and send their remaining Unionist voters away in a stampede?
Or do they enter Coalition with the Tories and say a final goodbye to all their Scottish seats?
They do neither, they abstain on the First Minister vote allowing Sturgeon to scrape back in but vote down indyref2 killing off independence hopes for another decade
At least there's implicit acceptance that if there's a pro indy majority at Holyrood, there'll be Indyref II asap. That is what you're saying, right?
No as the Tories won a UK wide majority on a no indyref2 for their full term platform, a Unionist majority just avoids the inevitable clash between Westminster and Holyrood
Eyebrows were not mentioned. No place for eyebrows in matters of this sort.
On topic - one of the biggest challenges for the next Labour leader will be to suppress the cult of personality being built up around Johnson. The "Boris" thing.
In a nutshell the task is to make people realize that Johnson is laughing AT them. Once this dawns they will feel foolish, then angry, and come the next election inclined to punish at the ballot box.
But this won't be easy. "Boris" is a powerful brand. I'd put it up there with Morrisons.
What does Starmer actually stand for - outside of his confused position on Brexit?
No-one knows.
He has no policy background that anyone can discern.
People are looking at his pre-MP career and then projecting from there. And also being named Kier gives some people the impression that he is some sort of heir to Hardie.
He is pretty much a personality free zone. There is no spark of life, no passion. Yes, he can appear competent and confident (in a technocrat sort of way) - but he is in no way inspirational.
Perhaps Labour needs a period of dull leadership.
But Starmer has to explain his role in propping up Corbyn. He has to explain why he stood by and let the anti-Semitism rot Labour from within. He might not be a fellow traveller, but he made it possible for Corbyn and his clique to continue in power.
He isn't the solution to the decline in Labour fortunes. He would be a less awful choice than RLB - but he isn't the knight some people seem to be thinking he is.
Exactly - what are Starmer's policies going to be?
Hiking income tax, Corp tax, CGT, IHT, etc? Tons of nationalisations? Attacks on property rights? Abolition of private schools? Open borders? Extending voting rights to all residents? Or is he going to explicitly dump all that crap and head back to the centre?
What about the antisemitism crisis? If he doesn't spend the first year of his leadership ruthlessly expelling the antisemites in a very public manner, then the taint that attached to Corbyn will stick to him too. And if he does, the old cult will haaaaaate him.
What about the Labour Party itself? All the hard left loons and Momentumites are still there. Do Starmer boosters really think Tory voters are stupid enough to overlook the radicals and extremists standing a step behind the bland man in a suit? I don't think they will be.
The antisemitism problem should be fairly easy to fix. Just do something similar to what Hague did in 1997 to address 'Tory Sleaze': set up a committee, comprising various venerable jewish and non-jewish independents, that will investigate any allegations and promise to implement whatever it recommends. Okay, it might result in a few of Jezza's old mates being thrown out, but who cares?
You long-grass committee isn't going to do the job whn the ECHR reports....
That is going to be a seminal anti-semite moment for Labour.
That report could rip the Labour Party apart. A leader who comes from the heart of the Corbyn project may well not be able to survive it.
What does Starmer actually stand for - outside of his confused position on Brexit?
No-one knows.
He has no policy background that anyone can discern.
People are looking at his pre-MP career and then projecting from there. And also being named Kier gives some people the impression that he is some sort of heir to Hardie.
He is pretty much a personality free zone. There is no spark of life, no passion. Yes, he can appear competent and confident (in a technocrat sort of way) - but he is in no way inspirational.
Perhaps Labour needs a period of dull leadership.
But Starmer has to explain his role in propping up Corbyn. He has to explain why he stood by and let the anti-Semitism rot Labour from within. He might not be a fellow traveller, but he made it possible for Corbyn and his clique to continue in power.
He isn't the solution to the decline in Labour fortunes. He would be a less awful choice than RLB - but he isn't the knight some people seem to be thinking he is.
Who would you like to see? Who would get you voting Labour with a passion that takes friends & family by surprise?
It is more a matter of what I would like to see from a centre-left party
1 - A party that does not play identity politics 2 - A party that does not jump on the outrage bus at every opportunity 3 - A party that opposes where opposition is needed, supports where agreement actually exists and has a positive policy platform 4 - A party that does not try to believe it is morally better than everyone else on the planet. Having a different world view does not automatically make you evil. 5 - A party that disowns those who support violence as part of political discourse 6 - A party that puts the realistic ahead of the idealistic. It is good to have aspirations - but you have to have a plan that can actually deliver on them
I might not want to vote for such a party - but I could, at least, respect it. And not fear it winning
Superb. That's my wish list for Labour too - I'm unlikely to ever vote for them, but as long as their policies inspire terror in people like me, Tory support is going to be awfully sticky at the 40%+ mark in General Elections...
I don't think the stats are that great. And while I live in the north it's over a year since I last entered a Greggs and even then it was at a services to buy a bottle of Coke Zero.
What does Starmer actually stand for - outside of his confused position on Brexit?
No-one knows.
He has no policy background that anyone can discern.
People are looking at his pre-MP career and then projecting from there. And also being named Kier gives some people the impression that he is some sort of heir to Hardie.
He is pretty much a personality free zone. There is no spark of life, no passion. Yes, he can appear competent and confident (in a technocrat sort of way) - but he is in no way inspirational.
Perhaps Labour needs a period of dull leadership.
But Starmer has to explain his role in propping up Corbyn. He has to explain why he stood by and let the anti-Semitism rot Labour from within. He might not be a fellow traveller, but he made it possible for Corbyn and his clique to continue in power.
He isn't the solution to the decline in Labour fortunes. He would be a less awful choice than RLB - but he isn't the knight some people seem to be thinking he is.
Exactly - what are Starmer's policies going to be?
Hiking income tax, Corp tax, CGT, IHT, etc? Tons of nationalisations? Attacks on property rights? Abolition of private schools? Open borders? Extending voting rights to all residents? Or is he going to explicitly dump all that crap and head back to the centre?
What about the antisemitism crisis? If he doesn't spend the first year of his leadership ruthlessly expelling the antisemites in a very public manner, then the taint that attached to Corbyn will stick to him too. And if he does, the old cult will haaaaaate him.
What about the Labour Party itself? All the hard left loons and Momentumites are still there. Do Starmer boosters really think Tory voters are stupid enough to overlook the radicals and extremists standing a step behind the bland man in a suit? I don't think they will be.
It’s four or five years until the next election. I don’t think anyone outside of the Tory party (and few in it ) are worrying too much about any of that right now.
Starmer feels like a good choice for Labour. I can already detect the whiff of panic amongst the Tories. In their heart of hearts they must know that the 'Boris' phenomenon is likely to have a very short shelf life, with the public soon becoming weary of its inherent frivolousness. The northern oiks will melt away ('Voted Tory once. Nivver again!') and they'll be staring at a lot of burnt bridges. Starmer the Charmer might well be the one to capitalize on the Tories' Brexit recklessness.
Agreed. And despite my leanings to a more radical politics than Starmer will probably embrace, I'm on board. More than this, I'm feeling the 1st stirrings of excitement. Which is great because the biggest impact of Dec 12 on me (other than the humongous betting win which did not help) was a loss of interest in politics. Imagine if end 2020 sees Trump out and Starmer leading Johnson by miles in "Best PM" polls having just completed a triumphant series of open air meetings in left behind places talking to white working class audiences about white working class concerns.
Because underestimating Boris has worked out so well thus far?
Everybody is assuming Boris's successes are a fluke, that he is a flash-in-the-pan and that all Labour need to do is get a leader who isn't a left-wing loon and northerners will flock back sobbing to Their Natural Home. This level of complacency is driving me scatty and requires much gritting of teeth....
What does Starmer actually stand for - outside of his confused position on Brexit?
No-one knows.
He has no policy background that anyone can discern.
People are looking at his pre-MP career and then projecting from there. And also being named Kier gives some people the impression that he is some sort of heir to Hardie.
He is pretty much a personality free zone. There is no spark of life, no passion. Yes, he can appear competent and confident (in a technocrat sort of way) - but he is in no way inspirational.
Perhaps Labour needs a period of dull leadership.
But Starmer has to explain his role in propping up Corbyn. He has to explain why he stood by and let the anti-Semitism rot Labour from within. He might not be a fellow traveller, but he made it possible for Corbyn and his clique to continue in power.
He isn't the solution to the decline in Labour fortunes. He would be a less awful choice than RLB - but he isn't the knight some people seem to be thinking he is.
Who would you like to see? Who would get you voting Labour with a passion that takes friends & family by surprise?
It is more a matter of what I would like to see from a centre-left party
1 - A party that does not play identity politics 2 - A party that does not jump on the outrage bus at every opportunity 3 - A party that opposes where opposition is needed, supports where agreement actually exists and has a positive policy platform 4 - A party that does not try to believe it is morally better than everyone else on the planet. Having a different world view does not automatically make you evil. 5 - A party that disowns those who support violence as part of political discourse 6 - A party that puts the realistic ahead of the idealistic. It is good to have aspirations - but you have to have a plan that can actually deliver on them
I might not want to vote for such a party - but I could, at least, respect it. And not fear it winning
I have never seen a better summary than this of why I don't vote Labour.
Of course, often, I also disagree with their policy positions. But putting aside the insanity if Labour's last three years, policy differences are by comparison mere points on a spectrum - hard to fall out over whether we shod be spending 1% less or 1% more of GDP on the functioning of the state.
Eyebrows were not mentioned. No place for eyebrows in matters of this sort.
On topic - one of the biggest challenges for the next Labour leader will be to suppress the cult of personality being built up around Johnson. The "Boris" thing.
In a nutshell the task is to make people realize that Johnson is laughing AT them. Once this dawns they will feel foolish, then angry, and come the next election inclined to punish at the ballot box.
But this won't be easy. "Boris" is a powerful brand. I'd put it up there with Morrisons.
To be fair, Labour is also a powerful brand - right up there with Ratners
It is more a matter of what I would like to see from a centre-left party
1 - A party that does not play identity politics 2 - A party that does not jump on the outrage bus at every opportunity 3 - A party that opposes where opposition is needed, supports where agreement actually exists and has a positive policy platform 4 - A party that does not try to believe it is morally better than everyone else on the planet. Having a different world view does not automatically make you evil. 5 - A party that disowns those who support violence as part of political discourse 6 - A party that puts the realistic ahead of the idealistic. It is good to have aspirations - but you have to have a plan that can actually deliver on them
I might not want to vote for such a party - but I could, at least, respect it. And not fear it winning
Quite right. Keir the Seer can't beat Boris at the cranky-caper stuff. That would be like asking Sir Thomas More to compete with Dicky Pearce. No, Keir just needs to stay patient and cool. Soon enough the experts will reclaim the earth and Keir must position himself as their talisman.
That’s the most impressive thing Boris has ever done in my opinion. Respect.
But if you are banking on Kier, Um, Stammer to save the Earth, forget it. THERE IS NO WAY HE IS BECOMING LABOUR LEADER.
I’ll tell you who the next Labour leader is right now, get on whilst odds long. David lammy
I actually think Lammy is good value, and would also probably do a better job than Drear Starmer. But his track record (finishing fourth in the 2015 London Mayoral selection behind Diane Abbott) is not exactly encouraging. I'm not sure he has much to say to Labour members outside London, either.
Lammy? All they need do is show his Mastermind performance on a loop to show how lacking he is
I don't think the stats are that great. And while I live in the north it's over a year since I last entered a Greggs and even then it was at a services to buy a bottle of Coke Zero.
What does Starmer actually stand for - outside of his confused position on Brexit?
No-one knows.
He has no policy background that anyone can discern.
People are looking at his pre-MP career and then projecting from there. And also being named Kier gives some people the impression that he is some sort of heir to Hardie.
He is pretty much a personality free zone. There is no spark of life, no passion. Yes, he can appear competent and confident (in a technocrat sort of way) - but he is in no way inspirational.
Perhaps Labour needs a period of dull leadership.
But Starmer has to explain his role in propping up Corbyn. He has to explain why he stood by and let the anti-Semitism rot Labour from within. He might not be a fellow traveller, but he made it possible for Corbyn and his clique to continue in power.
He isn't the solution to the decline in Labour fortunes. He would be a less awful choice than RLB - but he isn't the knight some people seem to be thinking he is.
Exactly - what are Starmer's policies going to be?
Hiking income tax, Corp tax, CGT, IHT, etc? Tons of nationalisations? Attacks on property rights? Abolition of private schools? Open borders? Extending voting rights to all residents? Or is he going to explicitly dump all that crap and head back to the centre?
What about the antisemitism crisis? If he doesn't spend the first year of his leadership ruthlessly expelling the antisemites in a very public manner, then the taint that attached to Corbyn will stick to him too. And if he does, the old cult will haaaaaate him.
What about the Labour Party itself? All the hard left loons and Momentumites are still there. Do Starmer boosters really think Tory voters are stupid enough to overlook the radicals and extremists standing a step behind the bland man in a suit? I don't think they will be.
The antisemitism problem should be fairly easy to fix. Just do something similar to what Hague did in 1997 to address 'Tory Sleaze': set up a committee, comprising various venerable jewish and non-jewish independents, that will investigate any allegations and promise to implement whatever it recommends. Okay, it might result in a few of Jezza's old mates being thrown out, but who cares?
Might result in Corbyn being thrown out.
That would cause world popcorn prices to spike.
The membership would riot, most serm to think he did great. Though Boris has shown you can ruthlessly expel big names and still hold onto your vote.
Starmer feels like a good choice for Labour. I can already detect the whiff of panic amongst the Tories. In their heart of hearts they must know that the 'Boris' phenomenon is likely to have a very short shelf life, with the public soon becoming weary of its inherent frivolousness. The northern oiks will melt away ('Voted Tory once. Nivver again!') and they'll be staring at a lot of burnt bridges. Starmer the Charmer might well be the one to capitalize on the Tories' Brexit recklessness.
Agreed. And despite my leanings to a more radical politics than Starmer will probably embrace, I'm on board. More than this, I'm feeling the 1st stirrings of excitement. Which is great because the biggest impact of Dec 12 on me (other than the humongous betting win which did not help) was a loss of interest in politics. Imagine if end 2020 sees Trump out and Starmer leading Johnson by miles in "Best PM" polls having just completed a triumphant series of open air meetings in left behind places talking to white working class audiences about white working class concerns.
Because underestimating Boris has worked out so well thus far?
Everybody is assuming Boris's successes are a fluke, that he is a flash-in-the-pan and that all Labour need to do is get a leader who isn't a left-wing loon and northerners will flock back sobbing to Their Natural Home. This level of complacency is driving me scatty and requires much gritting of teeth....
Is everyone assuming that ? Wargaming the next five years is an utterly futile process. Labour just need to pick the best leader out of what candidates they have. The new leader can the start to think about such things.
Quite right. Keir the Seer can't beat Boris at the cranky-caper stuff. That would be like asking Sir Thomas More to compete with Dicky Pearce. No, Keir just needs to stay patient and cool. Soon enough the experts will reclaim the earth and Keir must position himself as their talisman.
That’s the most impressive thing Boris has ever done in my opinion. Respect.
But if you are banking on Kier, Um, Stammer to save the Earth, forget it. THERE IS NO WAY HE IS BECOMING LABOUR LEADER.
I’ll tell you who the next Labour leader is right now, get on whilst odds long. David lammy
I actually think Lammy is good value, and would also probably do a better job than Drear Starmer. But his track record (finishing fourth in the 2015 London Mayoral selection behind Diane Abbott) is not exactly encouraging. I'm not sure he has much to say to Labour members outside London, either.
Lammy? All they need do is show his Mastermind performance on a loop to show how lacking he is
It's a little harsh to hold up "doesn't have eyes in the back of his head" as evidence of his lack of intelligence.
No it's not - he could have looked around the area on his way to the interview, but clearly he had a line he wanted to say and didnt care if it was true or not. Normally you can get away with it but on this occasion there was proof in shot.
So if it's not a sign of lack of intelligence it's a sign of him being a shit.
Quite right. Keir the Seer can't beat Boris at the cranky-caper stuff. That would be like asking Sir Thomas More to compete with Dicky Pearce. No, Keir just needs to stay patient and cool. Soon enough the experts will reclaim the earth and Keir must position himself as their talisman.
That’s the most impressive thing Boris has ever done in my opinion. Respect.
But if you are banking on Kier, Um, Stammer to save the Earth, forget it. THERE IS NO WAY HE IS BECOMING LABOUR LEADER.
I’ll tell you who the next Labour leader is right now, get on whilst odds long. David lammy
I actually think Lammy is good value, and would also probably do a better job than Drear Starmer. But his track record (finishing fourth in the 2015 London Mayoral selection behind Diane Abbott) is not exactly encouraging. I'm not sure he has much to say to Labour members outside London, either.
Lammy? All they need do is show his Mastermind performance on a loop to show how lacking he is
It's a little harsh to hold up "doesn't have eyes in the back of his head" as evidence of his lack of intelligence.
My favourite example of that kind was of a survivor from Grenfell angrily telling the media nobody from the council had been to help them, and saying only this other woman next to her had done anything to try and sort things out, and how grateful she was for this person stepping up where the council failed. So the reporter turned to the woman in question and said, ‘could you tell me who you work for?’
‘Kensington and Chelsea Housing Department,’ came the reply.
What does Starmer actually stand for - outside of his confused position on Brexit?
No-one knows.
He has no policy background that anyone can discern.
People are looking at his pre-MP career and then projecting from there. And also being named Kier gives some people the impression that he is some sort of heir to Hardie.
He is pretty much a personality free zone. There is no spark of life, no passion. Yes, he can appear competent and confident (in a technocrat sort of way) - but he is in no way inspirational.
Perhaps Labour needs a period of dull leadership.
But Starmer has to explain his role in propping up Corbyn. He has to explain why he stood by and let the anti-Semitism rot Labour from within. He might not be a fellow traveller, but he made it possible for Corbyn and his clique to continue in power.
He isn't the solution to the decline in Labour fortunes. He would be a less awful choice than RLB - but he isn't the knight some people seem to be thinking he is.
Exactly - what are Starmer's policies going to be?
Hiking income tax, Corp tax, CGT, IHT, etc? Tons of nationalisations? Attacks on property rights? Abolition of private schools? Open borders? Extending voting rights to all residents? Or is he going to explicitly dump all that crap and head back to the centre?
What about the antisemitism crisis? If he doesn't spend the first year of his leadership ruthlessly expelling the antisemites in a very public manner, then the taint that attached to Corbyn will stick to him too. And if he does, the old cult will haaaaaate him.
What about the Labour Party itself? All the hard left loons and Momentumites are still there. Do Starmer boosters really think Tory voters are stupid enough to overlook the radicals and extremists standing a step behind the bland man in a suit? I don't think they will be.
And there's always the lingering suspicion that Labour would use a moderate leader like Starmer to gain power and then dump him for a leftie like Lavery. Just as Livingstone dumped McIntosh at the GLC in 1981.
Has anyone seen a market on Leonard’s successor? They can’t possibly be daft enough to go into the Scottish GE with that numptie as their candidate for FM.
Will the Tories go for Carlaw? Very brave. Brave in the YM meaning.
And will the cowed SLDs stick with Angry Wullie?
Holyrood 21 is approaching fast. If they want a chance of preventing yet another pro-independence majority then they’ll need three new, competent leaders. Big task. Little time.
Even if the SNP got the 45% they got at the general election at Holyrood 2021 that would be down on the 46.5% they got at the Holyrood 2016 elections
If SNP and Greens are just short of a majority in 2021 - which seems possible - that leaves an exquisite instrument of torture for Scottish Labour.
Do they support the SNP and send their remaining Unionist voters away in a stampede?
Or do they enter Coalition with the Tories and say a final goodbye to all their Scottish seats?
They’ll have to support the SNP. The Con/Lab coalition is simply not an option any more.
To misquote Mandy Rhys Davies, you would, wouldn’t you? I wonder though if it seems that simple to the Labour high command.
The problem Labour have is independence is now seen as left wing, and unionism as right wing. So the SNP has become the party of choice for left wing voters. Meanwhile, unionist voters are abandoning Labour because it’s on the left.
But at the same time, their remaining voters are therefore clearly more unionist than left wing. So the logical strategic choice to hold on to them is the Tories. Propping up the SNP could see those voters run away, with no guarantee the others would return.
At the same time, if they do that, farewell to the central belt, hello chaos in England as they try to explain to Aaron Peters and Eleanor Penny why the Tories are better coalition partners than a left wing party.
It’s hard to see how they ride these particular horses. Hence why I see it as an instrument of torture for them.
- “... their remaining voters are therefore clearly more unionist than left wing.”
Huh?
Last time I looked at a breakdown, about 40% of SLab voters are BritNats, 40% support Scottish independence, and 20% are indifferent.
And nearly all are left wing.
So, the number of right wing Unionists among SLab voters is negligible. The SCons have already had all they are ever going to get from that pool.
What does Starmer actually stand for - outside of his confused position on Brexit?
No-one knows.
He has no policy background that anyone can discern.
People are looking at his pre-MP career and then projecting from there. And also being named Kier gives some people the impression that he is some sort of heir to Hardie.
He is pretty much a personality free zone. There is no spark of life, no passion. Yes, he can appear competent and confident (in a technocrat sort of way) - but he is in no way inspirational.
Perhaps Labour needs a period of dull leadership.
But Starmer has to explain his role in propping up Corbyn. He has to explain why he stood by and let the anti-Semitism rot Labour from within. He might not be a fellow traveller, but he made it possible for Corbyn and his clique to continue in power.
He isn't the solution to the decline in Labour fortunes. He would be a less awful choice than RLB - but he isn't the knight some people seem to be thinking he is.
Exactly - what are Starmer's policies going to be?
Hiking income tax, Corp tax, CGT, IHT, etc? Tons of nationalisations? Attacks on property rights? Abolition of private schools? Open borders? Extending voting rights to all residents? Or is he going to explicitly dump all that crap and head back to the centre?
What about the antisemitism crisis? If he doesn't spend the first year of his leadership ruthlessly expelling the antisemites in a very public manner, then the taint that attached to Corbyn will stick to him too. And if he does, the old cult will haaaaaate him.
What about the Labour Party itself? All the hard left loons and Momentumites are still there. Do Starmer boosters really think Tory voters are stupid enough to overlook the radicals and extremists standing a step behind the bland man in a suit? I don't think they will be.
It’s four or five years until the next election. I don’t think anyone outside of the Tory party (and few in it ) are worrying too much about any of that right now.
On the contrary, the next election is often won or lost based on the initial impression made by a new leader in their first year in charge. And if that leader insists on being a blank slate, then their opposition will most certainly mould that impression for them...
Quite right. Keir the Seer can't beat Boris at the cranky-caper stuff. That would be like asking Sir Thomas More to compete with Dicky Pearce. No, Keir just needs to stay patient and cool. Soon enough the experts will reclaim the earth and Keir must position himself as their talisman.
That’s the most impressive thing Boris has ever done in my opinion. Respect.
But if you are banking on Kier, Um, Stammer to save the Earth, forget it. THERE IS NO WAY HE IS BECOMING LABOUR LEADER.
I’ll tell you who the next Labour leader is right now, get on whilst odds long. David lammy
I actually think Lammy is good value, and would also probably do a better job than Drear Starmer. But his track record (finishing fourth in the 2015 London Mayoral selection behind Diane Abbott) is not exactly encouraging. I'm not sure he has much to say to Labour members outside London, either.
Lammy? All they need do is show his Mastermind performance on a loop to show how lacking he is
It's a little harsh to hold up "doesn't have eyes in the back of his head" as evidence of his lack of intelligence.
My favourite example of that kind was of a survivor from Grenfell angrily telling the media nobody from the council had been to help them, and saying only this other woman next to her had done anything to try and sort things out, and how grateful she was for this person stepping up where the council failed. So the reporter turned to the woman in question and said, ‘could you tell me who you work for?’
‘Kensington and Chelsea Housing Department,’ came the reply.
Its corollary to why I dont see the point in PMs and ministers being required to visit troubled areas in rapid quick time - people either just moan - understandable of course but to no benefit as the pm cannot fix things on the ground- or claim anyway no one cares about them.
What does Starmer actually stand for - outside of his confused position on Brexit?
No-one knows.
He has no policy background that anyone can discern.
People are looking at his pre-MP career and then projecting from there. And also being named Kier gives some people the impression that he is some sort of heir to Hardie.
He is pretty much a personality free zone. There is no spark of life, no passion. Yes, he can appear competent and confident (in a technocrat sort of way) - but he is in no way inspirational.
Perhaps Labour needs a period of dull leadership.
But Starmer has to explain his role in propping up Corbyn. He has to explain why he stood by and let the anti-Semitism rot Labour from within. He might not be a fellow traveller, but he made it possible for Corbyn and his clique to continue in power.
He isn't the solution to the decline in Labour fortunes. He would be a less awful choice than RLB - but he isn't the knight some people seem to be thinking he is.
Exactly - what are Starmer's policies going to be?
Hiking income tax, Corp tax, CGT, IHT, etc? Tons of nationalisations? Attacks on property rights? Abolition of private schools? Open borders? Extending voting rights to all residents? Or is he going to explicitly dump all that crap and head back to the centre?
What about the antisemitism crisis? If he doesn't spend the first year of his leadership ruthlessly expelling the antisemites in a very public manner, then the taint that attached to Corbyn will stick to him too. And if he does, the old cult will haaaaaate him.
What about the Labour Party itself? All the hard left loons and Momentumites are still there. Do Starmer boosters really think Tory voters are stupid enough to overlook the radicals and extremists standing a step behind the bland man in a suit? I don't think they will be.
It’s four or five years until the next election. I don’t think anyone outside of the Tory party (and few in it ) are worrying too much about any of that right now.
On the contrary, the next election is often won or lost based on the initial impression made by a new leader in their first year in charge. And if that leader insists on being a blank slate, then their opposition will most certainly mould that impression for them...
I wrote a header on here suggesting that's what Ed Miliband should do in 2011! Didn't really work out for him
Starmer feels like a good choice for Labour. I can already detect the whiff of panic amongst the Tories. In their heart of hearts they must know that the 'Boris' phenomenon is likely to have a very short shelf life, with the public soon becoming weary of its inherent frivolousness. The northern oiks will melt away ('Voted Tory once. Nivver again!') and they'll be staring at a lot of burnt bridges. Starmer the Charmer might well be the one to capitalize on the Tories' Brexit recklessness.
Agreed. And despite my leanings to a more radical politics than Starmer will probably embrace, I'm on board. More than this, I'm feeling the 1st stirrings of excitement. Which is great because the biggest impact of Dec 12 on me (other than the humongous betting win which did not help) was a loss of interest in politics. Imagine if end 2020 sees Trump out and Starmer leading Johnson by miles in "Best PM" polls having just completed a triumphant series of open air meetings in left behind places talking to white working class audiences about white working class concerns.
Because underestimating Boris has worked out so well thus far?
Everybody is assuming Boris's successes are a fluke, that he is a flash-in-the-pan and that all Labour need to do is get a leader who isn't a left-wing loon and northerners will flock back sobbing to Their Natural Home. This level of complacency is driving me scatty and requires much gritting of teeth....
Is everyone assuming that ? Wargaming the next five years is an utterly futile process. Labour just need to pick the best leader out of what candidates they have. The new leader can the start to think about such things.
I'm not sure that's wise. You have about four years to turn things around. You need to identify why people did not vote for Labour and present personalities and policies that address these concerns and are electorally popular. You need to enthuse your personnel to campaign. You need to get money from people to run that campaign. Money, personalities, policies, plan, application, personnel. Think of it as a war. I don't think Starter will get it done in time and possibly never.
Has anyone seen a market on Leonard’s successor? They can’t possibly be daft enough to go into the Scottish GE with that numptie as their candidate for FM.
Will the Tories go for Carlaw? Very brave. Brave in the YM meaning.
And will the cowed SLDs stick with Angry Wullie?
Holyrood 21 is approaching fast. If they want a chance of preventing yet another pro-independence majority then they’ll need three new, competent leaders. Big task. Little time.
Even if the SNP got the 45% they got at the general election at Holyrood 2021 that would be down on the 46.5% they got at the Holyrood 2016 elections
If SNP and Greens are just short of a majority in 2021 - which seems possible - that leaves an exquisite instrument of torture for Scottish Labour.
Do they support the SNP and send their remaining Unionist voters away in a stampede?
Or do they enter Coalition with the Tories and say a final goodbye to all their Scottish seats?
They’ll have to support the SNP. The Con/Lab coalition is simply not an option any more.
To misquote Mandy Rhys Davies, you would, wouldn’t you?
Au contraire. There is nothing I’d like better that SLab propping up the Tories in such a high profile fashion. Aberdeen city council they can get away with. But national government? Forget it.
Superb. That's my wish list for Labour too - I'm unlikely to ever vote for them, but as long as their policies inspire terror in people like me, Tory support is going to be awfully sticky at the 40%+ mark in General Elections...
But what if every single policy that represents a truly serious attack on privilege and inequality inspires terror? What then? Because it does seem to amongst many.
In that case, if the Labour party is not frightening people it must be shying away from changing very much at all.
And that - if you're honest - is the sort of "centre left" party you want, is it not?
What does Starmer actually stand for - outside of his confused position on Brexit?
No-one knows.
He has no policy background that anyone can discern.
People are looking at his pre-MP career and then projecting from there. And also being named Kier gives some people the impression that he is some sort of heir to Hardie.
He is pretty much a personality free zone. There is no spark of life, no passion. Yes, he can appear competent and confident (in a technocrat sort of way) - but he is in no way inspirational.
Perhaps Labour needs a period of dull leadership.
But Starmer has to explain his role in propping up Corbyn. He has to explain why he stood by and let the anti-Semitism rot Labour from within. He might not be a fellow traveller, but he made it possible for Corbyn and his clique to continue in power.
He isn't the solution to the decline in Labour fortunes. He would be a less awful choice than RLB - but he isn't the knight some people seem to be thinking he is.
What's does Johnson stand for - outside his dishonest position on Brexit?
Nevertheless, a good question. Checking his Twitter feed, I would say Starmer stands for competent administration. Whether that will cut through or if he will succeed at any level, I don't know.
What does Starmer actually stand for - outside of his confused position on Brexit?
No-one knows.
He has no policy background that anyone can discern.
People are looking at his pre-MP career and then projecting from there. And also being named Kier gives some people the impression that he is some sort of heir to Hardie.
He is pretty much a personality free zone. There is no spark of life, no passion. Yes, he can appear competent and confident (in a technocrat sort of way) - but he is in no way inspirational.
Perhaps Labour needs a period of dull leadership.
But Starmer has to explain his role in propping up Corbyn. He has to explain why he stood by and let the anti-Semitism rot Labour from within. He might not be a fellow traveller, but he made it possible for Corbyn and his clique to continue in power.
He isn't the solution to the decline in Labour fortunes. He would be a less awful choice than RLB - but he isn't the knight some people seem to be thinking he is.
Exactly - what are Starmer's policies going to be?
Hiking income tax, Corp tax, CGT, IHT, etc? Tons of nationalisations? Attacks on property rights? Abolition of private schools? Open borders? Extending voting rights to all residents? Or is he going to explicitly dump all that crap and head back to the centre?
What about the antisemitism crisis? If he doesn't spend the first year of his leadership ruthlessly expelling the antisemites in a very public manner, then the taint that attached to Corbyn will stick to him too. And if he does, the old cult will haaaaaate him.
What about the Labour Party itself? All the hard left loons and Momentumites are still there. Do Starmer boosters really think Tory voters are stupid enough to overlook the radicals and extremists standing a step behind the bland man in a suit? I don't think they will be.
And there's always the lingering suspicion distinct possiblity with these SWP-types that Labour would use a moderate leader like Starmer to gain power and then dump him for a leftie like Lavery. Just as Livingstone dumped McIntosh at the GLC in 1981.
What does Starmer actually stand for - outside of his confused position on Brexit?
No-one knows.
He has no policy background that anyone can discern.
People are looking at his pre-MP career and then projecting from there. And also being named Kier gives some people the impression that he is some sort of heir to Hardie.
He is pretty much a personality free zone. There is no spark of life, no passion. Yes, he can appear competent and confident (in a technocrat sort of way) - but he is in no way inspirational.
Perhaps Labour needs a period of dull leadership.
But Starmer has to explain his role in propping up Corbyn. He has to explain why he stood by and let the anti-Semitism rot Labour from within. He might not be a fellow traveller, but he made it possible for Corbyn and his clique to continue in power.
He isn't the solution to the decline in Labour fortunes. He would be a less awful choice than RLB - but he isn't the knight some people seem to be thinking he is.
Exactly - what are Starmer's policies going to be?
Hiking income tax, Corp tax, CGT, IHT, etc? Tons of nationalisations? Attacks on property rights? Abolition of private schools? Open borders? Extending voting rights to all residents? Or is he going to explicitly dump all that crap and head back to the centre?
What about the antisemitism crisis? If he doesn't spend the first year of his leadership ruthlessly expelling the antisemites in a very public manner, then the taint that attached to Corbyn will stick to him too. And if he does, the old cult will haaaaaate him.
What about the Labour Party itself? All the hard left loons and Momentumites are still there. Do Starmer boosters really think Tory voters are stupid enough to overlook the radicals and extremists standing a step behind the bland man in a suit? I don't think they will be.
It’s four or five years until the next election. I don’t think anyone outside of the Tory party (and few in it ) are worrying too much about any of that right now.
On the contrary, the next election is often won or lost based on the initial impression made by a new leader in their first year in charge. And if that leader insists on being a blank slate, then their opposition will most certainly mould that impression for them...
Labour will be on their third new leader by that election.....
Has anyone seen a market on Leonard’s successor? They can’t possibly be daft enough to go into the Scottish GE with that numptie as their candidate for FM.
Will the Tories go for Carlaw? Very brave. Brave in the YM meaning.
And will the cowed SLDs stick with Angry Wullie?
Holyrood 21 is approaching fast. If they want a chance of preventing yet another pro-independence majority then they’ll need three new, competent leaders. Big task. Little time.
I might be wrong but I think I remember Leonard saying he will carry on at least until the next Holyrood election. Sticking limpet like to post after electoral disasters seems to be his one consistent characteristic.
So, Sturgeon v Leonard, with Carlaw and Wullie fighting for the scraps.
That’ll explain why the shortest-priced Unionist to be next FM is Richard Leonard, at 12/1.
Wullie is 100/1.
Shortest Tory is David Coburn, at 200/1.
I like the look of that Kate Forbes price: 8/1.
Leonard leads the third largest party by MSPs and voteshare. Last month, their vote went into free fall - down by 205,000. Why would he be the one duking it out with Sturgeon to be FM?
The electoral cycle.
16 months of the already profoundly unpopular The Clown all over the media, and 16 months of calm, intelligent Starmer.
By May 2021, the Ruth Davidson Party will be a distant memory.
This will be a good, old-fashioned SNP vs SLab fight. And Leonard ain’t no prize fighter.
If that’s what you think, fine. Forgive me if I address it with scepticism until we know what’s going to happen on March 9th - which whatever happens will certainly drive The Clown off front pages for some time - and who the new Tory leader in Scotland is.
Betting is largely about timing. Arguments based upon “let’s wait and see” seldom interest punters.
This is my analysis Jan 20. I find it hard to foresee any event that will bring the party formerly known as the Ruth Davidson Party back into the running for May 21.
Quite right. Keir the Seer can't beat Boris at the cranky-caper stuff. That would be like asking Sir Thomas More to compete with Dicky Pearce. No, Keir just needs to stay patient and cool. Soon enough the experts will reclaim the earth and Keir must position himself as their talisman.
That’s the most impressive thing Boris has ever done in my opinion. Respect.
But if you are banking on Kier, Um, Stammer to save the Earth, forget it. THERE IS NO WAY HE IS BECOMING LABOUR LEADER.
I’ll tell you who the next Labour leader is right now, get on whilst odds long. David lammy
Dear God NO, that would be horrendous, he is the most annoying self loving twunt on the planet. Only beneficiaries would be TV manufacturers as bricks got thrown through TV screens on a regular basis. NO NO NO, I would even vote Boris to keep that plank out.
Has anyone seen a market on Leonard’s successor? They can’t possibly be daft enough to go into the Scottish GE with that numptie as their candidate for FM.
Will the Tories go for Carlaw? Very brave. Brave in the YM meaning.
And will the cowed SLDs stick with Angry Wullie?
Holyrood 21 is approaching fast. If they want a chance of preventing yet another pro-independence majority then they’ll need three new, competent leaders. Big task. Little time.
Even if the SNP got the 45% they got at the general election at Holyrood 2021 that would be down on the 46.5% they got at the Holyrood 2016 elections
If SNP and Greens are just short of a majority in 2021 - which seems possible - that leaves an exquisite instrument of torture for Scottish Labour.
Do they support the SNP and send their remaining Unionist voters away in a stampede?
Or do they enter Coalition with the Tories and say a final goodbye to all their Scottish seats?
They’ll have to support the SNP. The Con/Lab coalition is simply not an option any more.
To misquote Mandy Rhys Davies, you would, wouldn’t you?
Au contraire. There is nothing I’d like better that SLab propping up the Tories in such a high profile fashion. Aberdeen city council they can get away with. But national government? Forget it.
We all thought the Tories were signing their political death warrant when they propped up Alex Salmond as FM.
Has anyone seen a market on Leonard’s successor? They can’t possibly be daft enough to go into the Scottish GE with that numptie as their candidate for FM.
Will the Tories go for Carlaw? Very brave. Brave in the YM meaning.
And will the cowed SLDs stick with Angry Wullie?
Holyrood 21 is approaching fast. If they want a chance of preventing yet another pro-independence majority then they’ll need three new, competent leaders. Big task. Little time.
Even if the SNP got the 45% they got at the general election at Holyrood 2021 that would be down on the 46.5% they got at the Holyrood 2016 elections
If SNP and Greens are just short of a majority in 2021 - which seems possible - that leaves an exquisite instrument of torture for Scottish Labour.
Do they support the SNP and send their remaining Unionist voters away in a stampede?
Or do they enter Coalition with the Tories and say a final goodbye to all their Scottish seats?
They do neither, they abstain on the First Minister vote allowing Sturgeon to scrape back in but vote down indyref2 killing off independence hopes for another decade
At least there's implicit acceptance that if there's a pro indy majority at Holyrood, there'll be Indyref II asap. That is what you're saying, right?
No as the Tories won a UK wide majority on a no indyref2 for their full term platform, a Unionist majority just avoids the inevitable clash between Westminster and Holyrood
Lol, The Indissoluble Unity of the Yookish Nation.
Has anyone seen a market on Leonard’s successor? They can’t possibly be daft enough to go into the Scottish GE with that numptie as their candidate for FM.
Will the Tories go for Carlaw? Very brave. Brave in the YM meaning.
And will the cowed SLDs stick with Angry Wullie?
Holyrood 21 is approaching fast. If they want a chance of preventing yet another pro-independence majority then they’ll need three new, competent leaders. Big task. Little time.
Even if the SNP got the 45% they got at the general election at Holyrood 2021 that would be down on the 46.5% they got at the Holyrood 2016 elections
You need some new propaganda statistics, after 3000+ showings people just glaze over and think "TOSSER not again FFS".
Because underestimating Boris has worked out so well thus far?
Hey not me guv. Quite the opposite. Pls see below my GE take on the day it was called when the consensus was "Boris" would struggle.
The Cons have got their GE positioning as regards Brexit spot on. Vote for them and you get Brexit done almost immediately and – this is key – with a Deal. Not any old Deal either, but a Boris Deal which has the flavour of True Leave about it. I cannot see why this does not collect up the Leave vote other than hard core Farage fans and those who for tribal reasons simply cannot vote Tory. It will also appeal to agnostics and apoliticals who despite voting Remain in 2016 are suffering from Brexit fatigue and want the whole thing settled just so long as there is no chaotic crash out.
So, on Brexit, the offering is strong and on top of this you have the figure of Boris Johnson. Now I can’t stand him. It’s clear to me that he is an integrity free chancer. The guy is devoid of principles - personal or political - and out purely for himself. But people like me won’t be voting Tory anyway. It would bring me out in a rash. With those that are medically capable of the act my sense is that Johnson will be a net asset. Just because I’m immune does not mean that I fail to recognize his star power. He appeals in particular to people who are not that interested in politics. There are a lot of such people in Britain. In a GE campaign this is gold dust and I expect him to exploit it to the max.
Conclusion – Dec 12th looks and feels like a big Tory win. So with all due regard to the technical seat by seat type analysis which says they have a mountain to climb, and to the fact that in 2017 it appeared like a big Tory win too, which did not transpire, that is my prediction. A Conservative overall majority of 60 seats.
Has anyone seen a market on Leonard’s successor? They can’t possibly be daft enough to go into the Scottish GE with that numptie as their candidate for FM.
Will the Tories go for Carlaw? Very brave. Brave in the YM meaning.
And will the cowed SLDs stick with Angry Wullie?
Holyrood 21 is approaching fast. If they want a chance of preventing yet another pro-independence majority then they’ll need three new, competent leaders. Big task. Little time.
Even if the SNP got the 45% they got at the general election at Holyrood 2021 that would be down on the 46.5% they got at the Holyrood 2016 elections
If SNP and Greens are just short of a majority in 2021 - which seems possible - that leaves an exquisite instrument of torture for Scottish Labour.
Do they support the SNP and send their remaining Unionist voters away in a stampede?
Or do they enter Coalition with the Tories and say a final goodbye to all their Scottish seats?
They do neither, they abstain on the First Minister vote allowing Sturgeon to scrape back in but vote down indyref2 killing off independence hopes for another decade
At least there's implicit acceptance that if there's a pro indy majority at Holyrood, there'll be Indyref II asap. That is what you're saying, right?
No as the Tories won a UK wide majority on a no indyref2 for their full term platform, a Unionist majority just avoids the inevitable clash between Westminster and Holyrood
Lol, The Indissoluble Unity of the Yookish Nation.
Suck it up separatists - save your bleating for 5 years hence
Has anyone seen a market on Leonard’s successor? They can’t possibly be daft enough to go into the Scottish GE with that numptie as their candidate for FM.
Will the Tories go for Carlaw? Very brave. Brave in the YM meaning.
And will the cowed SLDs stick with Angry Wullie?
Holyrood 21 is approaching fast. If they want a chance of preventing yet another pro-independence majority then they’ll need three new, competent leaders. Big task. Little time.
Even if the SNP got the 45% they got at the general election at Holyrood 2021 that would be down on the 46.5% they got at the Holyrood 2016 elections
If SNP and Greens are just short of a majority in 2021 - which seems possible - that leaves an exquisite instrument of torture for Scottish Labour.
Do they support the SNP and send their remaining Unionist voters away in a stampede?
Or do they enter Coalition with the Tories and say a final goodbye to all their Scottish seats?
Way it is going , unless Brexit is Shangri La and we are living in a land of milk and honey by end of the year, the London Unionist parties are F****D
I don't use Northern, they are the peasant wagons of the railway system, my daily commute is on TPE.
When Northern fail it buggers up the whole of the railway system in the desolate North. I mean when the Northern service from Manchester Piccadilly to Sheffield gets cancelled they all pile on my train.
They even let not first class ticket holders into first class, which is simply intolerable.
Typical Tory Toff, "My Train" no idea of real life and deluded into thinking they actually own the country.
The Northern tickets are usually for Northern trains only, they aren't allowed to use TPE or EMR trains, the trains are so overcrowded that the revenue protection officers guards cannot go down the train to make them buy the correct ticket.
So yes it is my train, because my season ticket allows me to use TPE trains.
And in which universe am I am a toff? I'm the grandson of immigrants to this country.
The train system in this country is so f***ed up it is unbelievable. Being the grandson of immigrants does not mean you cannot be a toff or act like one , look at the Tory party , plenty home grown as well as immigrants aspire to be a Toff and rule over the plebs.
Has anyone seen a market on Leonard’s successor? They can’t possibly be daft enough to go into the Scottish GE with that numptie as their candidate for FM.
Will the Tories go for Carlaw? Very brave. Brave in the YM meaning.
And will the cowed SLDs stick with Angry Wullie?
Holyrood 21 is approaching fast. If they want a chance of preventing yet another pro-independence majority then they’ll need three new, competent leaders. Big task. Little time.
I might be wrong but I think I remember Leonard saying he will carry on at least until the next Holyrood election. Sticking limpet like to post after electoral disasters seems to be his one consistent characteristic.
So, Sturgeon v Leonard, with Carlaw and Wullie fighting for the scraps.
That’ll explain why the shortest-priced Unionist to be next FM is Richard Leonard, at 12/1.
Wullie is 100/1.
Shortest Tory is David Coburn, at 200/1.
I like the look of that Kate Forbes price: 8/1.
12/1 has to be the joke of the century for sure. How any one of them can be under a 1000/1 is just extracting the urine.
Has anyone seen a market on Leonard’s successor? They can’t possibly be daft enough to go into the Scottish GE with that numptie as their candidate for FM.
Will the Tories go for Carlaw? Very brave. Brave in the YM meaning.
And will the cowed SLDs stick with Angry Wullie?
Holyrood 21 is approaching fast. If they want a chance of preventing yet another pro-independence majority then they’ll need three new, competent leaders. Big task. Little time.
Even if the SNP got the 45% they got at the general election at Holyrood 2021 that would be down on the 46.5% they got at the Holyrood 2016 elections
You need some new propaganda statistics, after 3000+ showings people just glaze over and think "TOSSER not again FFS".
Glad to see you're on the mend Hope the missus is as well.
Superb. That's my wish list for Labour too - I'm unlikely to ever vote for them, but as long as their policies inspire terror in people like me, Tory support is going to be awfully sticky at the 40%+ mark in General Elections...
But what if every single policy that represents a truly serious attack on privilege and inequality inspires terror? What then? Because it does seem to amongst many.
In that case, if the Labour party is not frightening people it must be shying away from changing very much at all.
And that - if you're honest - is the sort of "centre left" party you want, is it not?
If your policy aims are based on reducing the wealth of the rich rather than helping the poor to get richer - and that is what a lot of people hear when you say serious attacks on privilege and inequality - then you are probably going to need to do things which will frighten a lot of people.
Has anyone seen a market on Leonard’s successor? They can’t possibly be daft enough to go into the Scottish GE with that numptie as their candidate for FM.
Will the Tories go for Carlaw? Very brave. Brave in the YM meaning.
And will the cowed SLDs stick with Angry Wullie?
Holyrood 21 is approaching fast. If they want a chance of preventing yet another pro-independence majority then they’ll need three new, competent leaders. Big task. Little time.
Even if the SNP got the 45% they got at the general election at Holyrood 2021 that would be down on the 46.5% they got at the Holyrood 2016 elections
If SNP and Greens are just short of a majority in 2021 - which seems possible - that leaves an exquisite instrument of torture for Scottish Labour.
Do they support the SNP and send their remaining Unionist voters away in a stampede?
Or do they enter Coalition with the Tories and say a final goodbye to all their Scottish seats?
They do neither, they abstain on the First Minister vote allowing Sturgeon to scrape back in but vote down indyref2 killing off independence hopes for another decade
At least there's implicit acceptance that if there's a pro indy majority at Holyrood, there'll be Indyref II asap. That is what you're saying, right?
No as the Tories won a UK wide majority on a no indyref2 for their full term platform, a Unionist majority just avoids the inevitable clash between Westminster and Holyrood
Lol, The Indissoluble Unity of the Yookish Nation.
Suck it up separatists - save your bleating for 5 years hence
Unionist Invertebrates spokesman addresses the nation
Has anyone seen a market on Leonard’s successor? They can’t possibly be daft enough to go into the Scottish GE with that numptie as their candidate for FM.
Will the Tories go for Carlaw? Very brave. Brave in the YM meaning.
And will the cowed SLDs stick with Angry Wullie?
Holyrood 21 is approaching fast. If they want a chance of preventing yet another pro-independence majority then they’ll need three new, competent leaders. Big task. Little time.
Even if the SNP got the 45% they got at the general election at Holyrood 2021 that would be down on the 46.5% they got at the Holyrood 2016 elections
If SNP and Greens are just short of a majority in 2021 - which seems possible - that leaves an exquisite instrument of torture for Scottish Labour.
Do they support the SNP and send their remaining Unionist voters away in a stampede?
Or do they enter Coalition with the Tories and say a final goodbye to all their Scottish seats?
They do neither, they abstain on the First Minister vote allowing Sturgeon to scrape back in but vote down indyref2 killing off independence hopes for another decade
At least there's implicit acceptance that if there's a pro indy majority at Holyrood, there'll be Indyref II asap. That is what you're saying, right?
No as the Tories won a UK wide majority on a no indyref2 for their full term platform, a Unionist majority just avoids the inevitable clash between Westminster and Holyrood
Lol, The Indissoluble Unity of the Yookish Nation.
Suck it up separatists - save your bleating for 5 years hence
Unionist Invertebrates spokesman addresses the nation
PB s my only outlet! I have to address them some way
Quite right. Keir the Seer can't beat Boris at the cranky-caper stuff. That would be like asking Sir Thomas More to compete with Dicky Pearce. No, Keir just needs to stay patient and cool. Soon enough the experts will reclaim the earth and Keir must position himself as their talisman.
That’s the most impressive thing Boris has ever done in my opinion. Respect.
But if you are banking on Kier, Um, Stammer to save the Earth, forget it. THERE IS NO WAY HE IS BECOMING LABOUR LEADER.
I’ll tell you who the next Labour leader is right now, get on whilst odds long. David lammy
Why Lammy, Egg? What evidence are you basing this on? Why are you so sure that Starmer will not become next LP leader?
+1. I think Lammy has near-zero chance.
Starmer is rightly favourite on current evidence and I'm sure he'd win if the selection was tomorrow. But don't underestimate name recognition. I've seen Starmer on TV countless times in the last year. Many of the others I've not seen at all. Ever. And I suppose I'm more engaged in Labour politics than 95% of members It's possible that when I finally see RLB or Phillips or someone else in action I'll be blown away. The same goes for the wider membership, surely. Starmer should not be better than evens.
Quite right. Keir the Seer can't beat Boris at the cranky-caper stuff. That would be like asking Sir Thomas More to compete with Dicky Pearce. No, Keir just needs to stay patient and cool. Soon enough the experts will reclaim the earth and Keir must position himself as their talisman.
That’s the most impressive thing Boris has ever done in my opinion. Respect.
But if you are banking on Kier, Um, Stammer to save the Earth, forget it. THERE IS NO WAY HE IS BECOMING LABOUR LEADER.
I’ll tell you who the next Labour leader is right now, get on whilst odds long. David lammy
Why Lammy, Egg? What evidence are you basing this on? Why are you so sure that Starmer will not become next LP leader?
+1. I think Lammy has near-zero chance.
Starmer is rightly favourite on current evidence and I'm sure he'd win if the selection was tomorrow. But don't underestimate name recognition. I've seen Starmer on TV countless times in the last year. Many of the others I've not seen at all. Ever. And I suppose I'm more engaged in Labour politics than 95% of members It's possible that when I finally see RLB or Phillips or someone else in action I'll be blown away. The same goes for the wider membership, surely. Starmer should not be better than evens.
If your policy aims are based on reducing the wealth of the rich rather than helping the poor to get richer - and that is what a lot of people hear when you say serious attacks on privilege and inequality - then you are probably going to need to do things which will frighten a lot of people.
Well, yes, this is absolutely the point. Of course it is easier to utter platitudes about "the rising tide lifting all ships" but there is no way, not in reality, to make a serious dent in inequality without curbing the wealth and opportunities of those with a surfeit of both. Perhaps it is uncomfortable to admit this - which is why people even on the Left do not like to - but I think it's better that we do. To govern is to choose, they say. So, OK, we choose to do this. Frightens people? Fine, so long as it's the right people. In which case there will not be enough of them to cost general elections.
Quite right. Keir the Seer can't beat Boris at the cranky-caper stuff. That would be like asking Sir Thomas More to compete with Dicky Pearce. No, Keir just needs to stay patient and cool. Soon enough the experts will reclaim the earth and Keir must position himself as their talisman.
That’s the most impressive thing Boris has ever done in my opinion. Respect.
But if you are banking on Kier, Um, Stammer to save the Earth, forget it. THERE IS NO WAY HE IS BECOMING LABOUR LEADER.
I’ll tell you who the next Labour leader is right now, get on whilst odds long. David lammy
Why Lammy, Egg? What evidence are you basing this on? Why are you so sure that Starmer will not become next LP leader?
+1. I think Lammy has near-zero chance.
Starmer is rightly favourite on current evidence and I'm sure he'd win if the selection was tomorrow. But don't underestimate name recognition. I've seen Starmer on TV countless times in the last year. Many of the others I've not seen at all. Ever. And I suppose I'm more engaged in Labour politics than 95% of members It's possible that when I finally see RLB or Phillips or someone else in action I'll be blown away. The same goes for the wider membership, surely. Starmer should not be better than evens.
Nick, what did you think of the common sense apparently displayed here:
Quite right. Keir the Seer can't beat Boris at the cranky-caper stuff. That would be like asking Sir Thomas More to compete with Dicky Pearce. No, Keir just needs to stay patient and cool. Soon enough the experts will reclaim the earth and Keir must position himself as their talisman.
That’s the most impressive thing Boris has ever done in my opinion. Respect.
But if you are banking on Kier, Um, Stammer to save the Earth, forget it. THERE IS NO WAY HE IS BECOMING LABOUR LEADER.
I’ll tell you who the next Labour leader is right now, get on whilst odds long. David lammy
Why Lammy, Egg? What evidence are you basing this on? Why are you so sure that Starmer will not become next LP leader?
+1. I think Lammy has near-zero chance.
Starmer is rightly favourite on current evidence and I'm sure he'd win if the selection was tomorrow. But don't underestimate name recognition. I've seen Starmer on TV countless times in the last year. Many of the others I've not seen at all. Ever. And I suppose I'm more engaged in Labour politics than 95% of members It's possible that when I finally see RLB or Phillips or someone else in action I'll be blown away. The same goes for the wider membership, surely. Starmer should not be better than evens.
I agree. The one caveat is that it is very hard to see how most potential candiates make it to the final ballot. I doubt more than three will in total and would not be surprised if it is just two. The other wild card still in play is Rayner. As far as I know, she has not publicly and explicitly ruled out a leadership bid. If she did enter, Long Bailey would not run IMO.
Superb. That's my wish list for Labour too - I'm unlikely to ever vote for them, but as long as their policies inspire terror in people like me, Tory support is going to be awfully sticky at the 40%+ mark in General Elections...
But what if every single policy that represents a truly serious attack on privilege and inequality inspires terror? What then? Because it does seem to amongst many.
In that case, if the Labour party is not frightening people it must be shying away from changing very much at all.
And that - if you're honest - is the sort of "centre left" party you want, is it not?
I'm always honest on here - that's exactly the kind of centre-left party I want. Blair's period in government was frankly amazing for my family's prosperity, and since he's the only Labour leader in half a century to win a majority, it seems that that's exactly the kind of centre-left party the country wants too...
I’ve had food from five. Oddly the only time I normally see a West Cornwall Pasty Co. outlet is in central London.
There is a Miller & Carter down the road; seeing the map I might try it in order to strengthen my Welsh connections.
Wahaca (Mexican, and top in Inner London) was founded by the woman who won Masterchef a few years back. I doubt she'd get past the first round now, so high have the standards risen.
Quite right. Keir the Seer can't beat Boris at the cranky-caper stuff. That would be like asking Sir Thomas More to compete with Dicky Pearce. No, Keir just needs to stay patient and cool. Soon enough the experts will reclaim the earth and Keir must position himself as their talisman.
That’s the most impressive thing Boris has ever done in my opinion. Respect.
But if you are banking on Kier, Um, Stammer to save the Earth, forget it. THERE IS NO WAY HE IS BECOMING LABOUR LEADER.
I’ll tell you who the next Labour leader is right now, get on whilst odds long. David lammy
Why Lammy, Egg? What evidence are you basing this on? Why are you so sure that Starmer will not become next LP leader?
+1. I think Lammy has near-zero chance.
Starmer is rightly favourite on current evidence and I'm sure he'd win if the selection was tomorrow. But don't underestimate name recognition. I've seen Starmer on TV countless times in the last year. Many of the others I've not seen at all. Ever. And I suppose I'm more engaged in Labour politics than 95% of members It's possible that when I finally see RLB or Phillips or someone else in action I'll be blown away. The same goes for the wider membership, surely. Starmer should not be better than evens.
Possible. Not my politics, of course, but I still struggle to see RLB blowing away any uncommitted voters unless she massively ups her game.
Quite right. Keir the Seer can't beat Boris at the cranky-caper stuff. That would be like asking Sir Thomas More to compete with Dicky Pearce. No, Keir just needs to stay patient and cool. Soon enough the experts will reclaim the earth and Keir must position himself as their talisman.
That’s the most impressive thing Boris has ever done in my opinion. Respect.
But if you are banking on Kier, Um, Stammer to save the Earth, forget it. THERE IS NO WAY HE IS BECOMING LABOUR LEADER.
I’ll tell you who the next Labour leader is right now, get on whilst odds long. David lammy
Why Lammy, Egg? What evidence are you basing this on? Why are you so sure that Starmer will not become next LP leader?
+1. I think Lammy has near-zero chance.
Starmer is rightly favourite on current evidence and I'm sure he'd win if the selection was tomorrow. But don't underestimate name recognition. I've seen Starmer on TV countless times in the last year. Many of the others I've not seen at all. Ever. And I suppose I'm more engaged in Labour politics than 95% of members It's possible that when I finally see RLB or Phillips or someone else in action I'll be blown away. The same goes for the wider membership, surely. Starmer should not be better than evens.
Yes - the candidate with the greatest name recognition alwaya leads in early polls. Sometimes they go on to win. But so much can change, especially where many candidates have had little exposure so far, that, Starmer should be no greater than Evens. A lay the favourite moment.
Comments
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hQBxDdEh15g
That’ll explain why the shortest-priced Unionist to be next FM is Richard Leonard, at 12/1.
Wullie is 100/1.
Shortest Tory is David Coburn, at 200/1.
I like the look of that Kate Forbes price: 8/1.
Hiking income tax, Corp tax, CGT, IHT, etc? Tons of nationalisations? Attacks on property rights? Abolition of private schools? Open borders? Extending voting rights to all residents? Or is he going to explicitly dump all that crap and head back to the centre?
What about the antisemitism crisis? If he doesn't spend the first year of his leadership ruthlessly expelling the antisemites in a very public manner, then the taint that attached to Corbyn will stick to him too. And if he does, the old cult will haaaaaate him.
What about the Labour Party itself? All the hard left loons and Momentumites are still there. Do Starmer boosters really think Tory voters are stupid enough to overlook the radicals and extremists standing a step behind the bland man in a suit? I don't think they will be.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Scottish_Parliament_election
Which says it all.
https://youtu.be/DsR4Nx-ELgc
or that clip of him complaining about there being no police on the streets - when there was one standing just behind him.
https://youtu.be/AljxInZfqKM
He just isn't very bright
The problem Labour have is independence is now seen as left wing, and unionism as right wing. So the SNP has become the party of choice for left wing voters. Meanwhile, unionist voters are abandoning Labour because it’s on the left.
But at the same time, their remaining voters are therefore clearly more unionist than left wing. So the logical strategic choice to hold on to them is the Tories. Propping up the SNP could see those voters run away, with no guarantee the others would return.
At the same time, if they do that, farewell to the central belt, hello chaos in England as they try to explain to Aaron Peters and Eleanor Penny why the Tories are better coalition partners than a left wing party.
It’s hard to see how they ride these particular horses. Hence why I see it as an instrument of torture for them.
16 months of the already profoundly unpopular The Clown all over the media, and 16 months of calm, intelligent Starmer.
By May 2021, the Ruth Davidson Party will be a distant memory.
This will be a good, old-fashioned SNP vs SLab fight. And Leonard ain’t no prize fighter.
If he in fact deals hard and fast with incidents of antisemitism as leader, then his position on that matter is then clear, and the approach of his Labour Party likewise. Similarly, if he in fact deals with the "party within a party" issue, casting Milne etc into the outer darkness, and building a team from all wings of the party, then there are no doubts about the sort of leader he plans to be.
This stuff about "serving under Corbyn" is of interest only to politics obsessives. Starmer is a Labour MP, so served under the twice elected Labour leader. Nobody from the active "resistance" to Corbyn is a serious leadership contender, and several have left the party. And even if they were, it's a recipe for continued civil war - Starmer's appeal is partly that he's far better placed to ask for loyalty from Corbynistas because he was pretty loyal when their man was in place, so there's no hypocrisy as there was when Corbyn demanded loyalty despite having been a career rebel.
Will association with the "Corbyn regime" hurt Starmer in itself, even if he takes steps to mark out a different approach? I doubt it. Corbyn is already old news, and will only fade further. He was never PM or even close to it - the hypothetical about how a Corbyn Government might have played out is a parlour game.
That would cause world popcorn prices to spike.
1 - A party that does not play identity politics
2 - A party that does not jump on the outrage bus at every opportunity
3 - A party that opposes where opposition is needed, supports where agreement actually exists and has a positive policy platform
4 - A party that does not try to believe it is morally better than everyone else on the planet. Having a different world view does not automatically make you evil.
5 - A party that disowns those who support violence as part of political discourse
6 - A party that puts the realistic ahead of the idealistic. It is good to have aspirations - but you have to have a plan that can actually deliver on them
I might not want to vote for such a party - but I could, at least, respect it. And not fear it winning
That is going to be a seminal anti-semite moment for Labour.
On topic - one of the biggest challenges for the next Labour leader will be to suppress the cult of personality being built up around Johnson. The "Boris" thing.
In a nutshell the task is to make people realize that Johnson is laughing AT them. Once this dawns they will feel foolish, then angry, and come the next election inclined to punish at the ballot box.
But this won't be easy. "Boris" is a powerful brand. I'd put it up there with Morrisons.
The only one of those I’ve heard of is Gregg’s.
https://twitter.com/ProbablyADick/status/1212694249147371520
Of course, often, I also disagree with their policy positions. But putting aside the insanity if Labour's last three years, policy differences are by comparison mere points on a spectrum - hard to fall out over whether we shod be spending 1% less or 1% more of GDP on the functioning of the state.
Give me a name.
In Wales, there are four, three of them in Cardiff.
Again, seems a suspicious figure.
Wargaming the next five years is an utterly futile process. Labour just need to pick the best leader out of what candidates they have.
The new leader can the start to think about such things.
So if it's not a sign of lack of intelligence it's a sign of him being a shit.
‘Kensington and Chelsea Housing Department,’ came the reply.
Huh?
Last time I looked at a breakdown, about 40% of SLab voters are BritNats, 40% support Scottish independence, and 20% are indifferent.
And nearly all are left wing.
So, the number of right wing Unionists among SLab voters is negligible. The SCons have already had all they are ever going to get from that pool.
In that case, if the Labour party is not frightening people it must be shying away from changing very much at all.
And that - if you're honest - is the sort of "centre left" party you want, is it not?
Ditto @oxfordsimon
Nevertheless, a good question. Checking his Twitter feed, I would say Starmer stands for competent administration. Whether that will cut through or if he will succeed at any level, I don't know.
You have to laugh.
Until it's a reality.
This is my analysis Jan 20. I find it hard to foresee any event that will bring the party formerly known as the Ruth Davidson Party back into the running for May 21.
Didn’t quite turn out that way.
That said, it benefited him far more.
Anyway, I have to go. Have a good afternoon.
The Cons have got their GE positioning as regards Brexit spot on. Vote for them and you get Brexit done almost immediately and – this is key – with a Deal. Not any old Deal either, but a Boris Deal which has the flavour of True Leave about it. I cannot see why this does not collect up the Leave vote other than hard core Farage fans and those who for tribal reasons simply cannot vote Tory. It will also appeal to agnostics and apoliticals who despite voting Remain in 2016 are suffering from Brexit fatigue and want the whole thing settled just so long as there is no chaotic crash out.
So, on Brexit, the offering is strong and on top of this you have the figure of Boris Johnson. Now I can’t stand him. It’s clear to me that he is an integrity free chancer. The guy is devoid of principles - personal or political - and out purely for himself. But people like me won’t be voting Tory anyway. It would bring me out in a rash. With those that are medically capable of the act my sense is that Johnson will be a net asset. Just because I’m immune does not mean that I fail to recognize his star power. He appeals in particular to people who are not that interested in politics. There are a lot of such people in Britain. In a GE campaign this is gold dust and I expect him to exploit it to the max.
Conclusion – Dec 12th looks and feels like a big Tory win. So with all due regard to the technical seat by seat type analysis which says they have a mountain to climb, and to the fact that in 2017 it appeared like a big Tory win too, which did not transpire, that is my prediction. A Conservative overall majority of 60 seats.
No, I rate the guy very highly as a vote magnet.
Hope the missus is as well.
The Labour 2024 GE campaign is going to be branded as "Starmer for #10".
It might even bloody work.
You’re right. Genius.
Starmer is rightly favourite on current evidence and I'm sure he'd win if the selection was tomorrow. But don't underestimate name recognition. I've seen Starmer on TV countless times in the last year. Many of the others I've not seen at all. Ever. And I suppose I'm more engaged in Labour politics than 95% of members It's possible that when I finally see RLB or Phillips or someone else in action I'll be blown away. The same goes for the wider membership, surely. Starmer should not be better than evens.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/31/only-way-labour-win-ditch-labourism-corbyn
We have a problem here.....
Wahaca (Mexican, and top in Inner London) was founded by the woman who won Masterchef a few years back. I doubt she'd get past the first round now, so high have the standards risen.
Not my politics, of course, but I still struggle to see RLB blowing away any uncommitted voters unless she massively ups her game.