Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Starmer now firm odds-on favourite to succeed Corbyn
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Starmer now firm odds-on favourite to succeed Corbyn
Inevitably the YouGov poll of Labour members that came out last night has had a big impact on the the Corbyn succession betting. That the former Director of Public Prosecutions who has only been MP since 2015 has such a clear leading the poll is impacting on the betting and it is hard seeing him being beaten.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Hopefully the actual result won’t be tears for Keir’s supporters.
It’ll be fun when Boris Johnson tries to bluster in the Commons.
The main problem with Starmer (apart from him being incredibly boring) is his positioning on Brexit.
Are Labour really going to be stupid enough to jump from telling people that Boris couldn't get a deal, that nothing could be changed, that we were inevitably doomed into the remainer pit of the EU will dictate all the terms of our trade deal, we remain inferior and subservient, this is all hopeless and we are all doomed yet again? Because if they do 2019 will not be the bottom of the cycle.
Labour need to accept Brexit like they promised to do. This does not mean that they can't make the case, for example, for a CU, it just means that they need to have unequivocally accepted the principle rather than the process. I am far from persuaded that Starmer is that man. He still thinks he knows better.
That won't be the case now.
I expect there will also be CCHQ pressure on the new Speaker to restrict PMQs to a strict 30 minutes, and firm instructions to Conservative backbenchers to fill as much time as possible with noisy barracking and applause.
The whips will also be planting friendly questions with dozens of new MPs eager to get their names in the local paper.
He was elected by the Tories because they considered - correctly, as it transpired - that he would win them a big majority in an election. Now he’s done that, well done him. But they could now easily consider they want somebody else to consolidate the new government and remove him swiftly.
Arguably, our greatest and most productive peacetime PM was Clem Attlee, who may have been our least charismatic. And the reason he probably wasn't (John Major) is still in my list of the two or three most impressive PMs of my life - which includes Attlee's tenure.
I think Starmer would be good. The LOTO shouldn't be a figure of widespread derision. It's not good for democracy nor for the Tory Government. He won't win, but that's because it's not his to win, it's Boris's to lose.
Boris has an unassailable majority for a full term, so it will all be about examining and critiquing whatever settlement he comes up with. That we are leaving is entirely outside the influence of any party of opposition.
None of which parties ‘have’ to do anything Tories tell them. Or make any meaningless declarations of principle.
Keith forensically examined Corbyns manifesto and thought it was the basis to win an election - Id file his analysis in the bin.
That doesn't mean you need a Boris type for everyone, but they need something.
Yes - and if the last Labour leader election process is a guide this will take four months. Therefore the earliest that a new leader will be in post is mid May.
As I`ve posted on here before a few times, knowledge of the time the process will take is not yet reflected in the Corbyn Exit Date BF market. True that "Leaving date Apr-Jun 2020" has come down from 8 a while back to 3.65 now, but is still a good bet IMO.
1.38 Jan - Mar 2020 is a lay.
Not to say it’s impossible, of course, but it would need the right circumstances.
The way universal credit has been implemented in this country has caused great harm with people being made to wait for help for 5 weeks just at the point they need help. That is a real issue, but when you equate that with the kind numbers of people in relative poverty people don’t believe it.
If Labour had relied on absolute poverty then the numbers in relation to UC and if foodbank use statistics are in any way helpful, then we would be seeing massive growth in poverty but on much lower numbers. People would be able to believe the numbers.
Another bugbear of mine is foodbank statistics. I haven’t seen them recently but the opening of new locations is counted by them as additional need. Obviously they have their own agenda for this but a better measurement would be like for like increase in existing locations, much as is used in retail. There is a foodbank in the church I go to and they have reported numbers of users are up with UC delays accounting for half of all users!
Is Starmer the perfect candidate? Not at all. He is undoubtedly compromised by remaining in the shadow cabinet while Labour became institutionally anti-Semitic. That will need a lot of explaining and a lot of repentance. But the raw politics is that if he had walked out he would never have been able to mount a leadership bid as he’d be tainted by disloyalty.
There is also a danger Starmer could be too lawyerly - risk adverse, unable to connect, dour. He is not a great public speaker. But Labour’s greatest leader was not exactly a showman. Attlee, though, knew his party and how to manage it into power so that it could transform lives.
I am not saying Starmer is a new Attlee, but a methodical unifier who can hit the net when presented with open goals, and who doesn’t frighten great swathes of the electorate, is going to be a major upgrade on what Labour has been offering for the last 10 years.
McCluskey and the current leadership team, as well as Momentum, will do all they can to prevent him winning. That may well include supporting Angela Rayner.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2018/07/12/theresa-mays-favourability-score-plummets-new-low
Just as every failure of the last half century has been blamed on Brussels, you can be sure that every failure of the next half century will be blamed on Brexit.
Eventually, England will grow up and understand her true role in the world. But we’ll all be lang deid.
A shame Ms Harman isn't still Deputy Leader. They would have dovetailed well as a pair.
There is a lot more to happen in the future obvs, within the transitional period and beyond. But whatever happens we shall be outside of the EU, which is what the public voted for.
'A united Britain will have the upper hand over a divided and declining European Union'
https://tinyurl.com/tl9afec
'For the first time in living memory, defending their new Midlands and Northern seats, the Tories have a powerful electoral imperative to govern as “One Nation Conservatives”.'
Anyone care to speculate on the geographical boundaries of this 'One Nation'?
Poor - Not having enough to meet basic needs like food, heating and clothing
Just about managing - Can meet basic needs but have to scrimp and save for higher needs like holidays. Would struggle with a financial emergency like major car repairs.
Comfortable - Have enough to cover both basic and higher needs with a buffer in case of emergencies
Rich - Have far more wealth than they need and many assets.
One of the thing that bugs me is that assessments of wealth tend to only focus on income and not expenses. For example, many retired people have lower incomes but also lower expenses and so are comfortable, while relatively high earners in London and SE can still only be just about managing due to high cost of living.
https://mobile.twitter.com/mooncult/status/1212549854016106496
What does he look like on a stuck zip line?
And can Starmer do this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jhxilSeFqMI
Labour don’t have to do anything, except wait.
https://twitter.com/AngelaRayner/status/1212664866001043457
Most of the analysis focuses on how Starmer would affect the Con/Lab battle, however, if he wins he will also affect the Con/LD battle, strongly in favour of the LDs. Getting rid of Corbyn is a boon to the Lib Dems.
There are approximately 100 Con/Lab battleground seats.
There are approximately 50 Con/LD battleground seats.
By focussing solely on the 100 Con/Lab seats it is easy to assume that Labour cannot win in 2024. But take into consideration an LD boost and 2024 looks far from certain.
Tories better pray that RLB wins.
(Incidentally, not a single one of those 150 seats is in Scotland.)
Five years of that could get rather wearing.
London is like a hamster wheel.
PS: your categories are perfect
What's your thoughts on a new SCon leader? Presumably you don't think the second hand car salesman should carry on?
Starmer is a bit crap though. He is Stevens, the guy in the red top who goes down to the planet surface with Kirk, never to return...
Once elected, if there is a book on him not leading Labour into the next election, I'm on.
When Northern fail it buggers up the whole of the railway system in the desolate North. I mean when the Northern service from Manchester Piccadilly to Sheffield gets cancelled they all pile on my train.
They even let not first class ticket holders into first class, which is simply intolerable.
https://twitter.com/williamnhutton/status/1212699972820451333?s=20
So yes it is my train, because my season ticket allows me to use TPE trains.
And in which universe am I am a toff? I'm the grandson of immigrants to this country.
Davey is much better than Swinson. All he needs is some luck. Admittedly, some cash wouldn’t hurt either. We have no idea what the background will be to the 2024 GE. In a worst-case scenario we might be in the middle of a depression, or a war, or civil unrest. Or all three. Nobody knows.
Incidentally, those 150 seats are based on a 600-seat parliament.
https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/916803894793162752?s=20
https://twitter.com/TheMendozaWoman/status/1212409075398533120?s=20
But if you are banking on Kier, Um, Stammer to save the Earth, forget it. THERE IS NO WAY HE IS BECOMING LABOUR LEADER.
I’ll tell you who the next Labour leader is right now, get on whilst odds long. David lammy
Being the grandson of immigrants does not mean you cannot be a toff or act like one , look at the Tory party , plenty home grown as well as immigrants aspire to be a Toff and rule over the plebs.
Will the Tories go for Carlaw? Very brave. Brave in the YM meaning.
And will the cowed SLDs stick with Angry Wullie?
Holyrood 21 is approaching fast. If they want a chance of preventing yet another pro-independence majority then they’ll need three new, competent leaders. Big task. Little time.
Personally I would like to see all public sector salaries and benefits to be regionally indexed. I am sure that data is already collected on regional cost of living. If this was then profiled by recipient I.e the cost of living for a teacher who may not be eligible for any subsidised housing that would be much fairer. The move would have to be cost neutral - a mistake with UC, so that whilst some will lose out others should gain.
After that, Events may come into play.
https://www.leamingtoncourier.co.uk/news/warwickshire-hunt-apologises-after-hounds-ran-across-railway-between-leamington-and-banbury-1353477
I agree he has to be the favourite now but let’s not go overboard.
No-one knows.
He has no policy background that anyone can discern.
People are looking at his pre-MP career and then projecting from there. And also being named Kier gives some people the impression that he is some sort of heir to Hardie.
He is pretty much a personality free zone. There is no spark of life, no passion. Yes, he can appear competent and confident (in a technocrat sort of way) - but he is in no way inspirational.
Perhaps Labour needs a period of dull leadership.
But Starmer has to explain his role in propping up Corbyn. He has to explain why he stood by and let the anti-Semitism rot Labour from within. He might not be a fellow traveller, but he made it possible for Corbyn and his clique to continue in power.
He isn't the solution to the decline in Labour fortunes. He would be a less awful choice than RLB - but he isn't the knight some people seem to be thinking he is.
‘Are you crazy?’ Shouts the other man with the little breath he has left. ‘They won’t help you outrun the bear!’
‘I’m not trying to outrun the bear,’ replies his friend as he overtakes him. ‘All I have to do is outrun you.’
Your criticisms would be valid if there was a ‘knight’ in shining armour to rescue Labour. There isn’t. The sad truth is Labour has for some years looked utterly bereft of leadership, ideas and imagination. That’s how a nutter like Corbyn won in the first place. He was at least different and the other candidates were pretty underwhelming.
So Starmer is probably the right man to do the Michael Howard role for a couple of years, and scrabble about to see if their is anything there to work with.
And if not, better for Labour they are led by him than Ian Lavery.
Factor #2: If so, is he certain to get on the ballot? He certainly has enough MPs; I would guess if he's topping the polling he could round up enough CLPs as well, but I don't know if that's guaranteed.
Factor #3: Who is his anointed deputy, or does he not need one (if this is purely an RLB/Rayner thing)?
Leaving lower middle class C1s as the key swing voters
Do they support the SNP and send their remaining Unionist voters away in a stampede?
Or do they enter Coalition with the Tories and say a final goodbye to all their Scottish seats?