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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The big development in the Democratic nomination betting is the rise and rise of Bernie

With all the focus on the GE2019 aftermath we haven’t paid much attention to what will almost certainly be the biggest political betting event of 2020 – the White House Race. At the moment, five and a half weeks before the Iowa caucuses the main activity has been on the Democratic nomination battle.

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TheScreamingEagles

Yeah my lay the oldies in this market has been a roaring success.

TheScreamingEagles

Oh was that a primus inter pares?

ydoethur

TheScreamingEagles said:

Oh was that a primus inter pares?

You are so transparent!

ydoethur

TheScreamingEagles said:

Yeah my lay the oldies in this market has been a roaring success.

You’ve transferred from riding Virgins to laying oldies?

isam

https://twitter.com/bobbymadley2/status/1212032963443122176?s=21

TheScreamingEagles

Happy New Year everybody, I shall be hors de combat from PB tonight (and probably tomorrow as well.)

Nigelb

My view is that they are far too old and the party needs someone far younger to contrast with the then 74 year old Trump.

I’m not convinced that is the case (much as I’d like it to be). The Democrats need a candidate who can turn out all the parts of their coalition, irrespective of how long that candidate might have been around.

The Republicans are far less of a coalition than a monolith in terms of voter identity. Their vote will turn out, but it is to a much greater extent capped.

Nigelb

I posted this link in the last thread.

It is relevant to UK politics too, but essential reading if talking about the US:
https://blog.lareviewofbooks.org/interviews/rhetoric-escalates-talking-lilliana-mason/

kinabalu

Just in case people were getting the idea I'm infallible on all this politics stuff - I waded into Kamala Harris at a very juicy 6/1 for the Dem nomination.

HNY20 anyway. Let's hope it's a good one.

💃

OldKingCole

Happy New Year everyone. A wife, a roast pheasant and a nice bottle of red call!

I wish everyone all you wish yourselves! And to those not in the best of health, a speedy recovery.

rottenborough

OldKingCole said:

Happy New Year everyone. A wife, a roast pheasant and a nice bottle of red call!

I wish everyone all you wish yourselves! And to those not in the best of health, a speedy recovery.

Happy New Year everyone.

Personally, I can't wait to see the back of 2019. Wishing everyone a peaceful 2020.

ydoethur

rottenborough said:

OldKingCole said:

Happy New Year everyone. A wife, a roast pheasant and a nice bottle of red call!

I wish everyone all you wish yourselves! And to those not in the best of health, a speedy recovery.

Happy New Year everyone.

Personally, I can't wait to see the back of 2019. Wishing everyone a peaceful 2020.

While I shall not be sorry to see this year go, I worry next year will be no better.

Big_G_NorthWales

And may I join my fellow posters in wishing everyone a happy new year.

2020 is going to be very interesting right upto 31st December

Nigelb

ydoethur said:

rottenborough said:

OldKingCole said:

Happy New Year everyone. A wife, a roast pheasant and a nice bottle of red call!

I wish everyone all you wish yourselves! And to those not in the best of health, a speedy recovery.

Happy New Year everyone.

Personally, I can't wait to see the back of 2019. Wishing everyone a peaceful 2020.

While I shall not be sorry to see this year go, I worry next year will be no better.

I have to agree with the both of you.

Wishing everyone a Happy New Year nonetheless.

ydoethur

Nigelb said:

ydoethur said:

rottenborough said:

OldKingCole said:

Happy New Year everyone. A wife, a roast pheasant and a nice bottle of red call!

I wish everyone all you wish yourselves! And to those not in the best of health, a speedy recovery.

Happy New Year everyone.

Personally, I can't wait to see the back of 2019. Wishing everyone a peaceful 2020.

While I shall not be sorry to see this year go, I worry next year will be no better.

I have to agree with the both of you.

Wishing everyone a Happy New Year nonetheless.

I wish everyone a happy new year. I’ve no problem with that.

I’m not sure we’ll have one though, it’s going to be bumpy.

(I don’t think it will be great for me personally, but that’s a separate issue.)

kle4

No more love for Pete the golden boy?

Ave_it

Happy new year to all on pb.com

😊

matt

TheScreamingEagles said:

Yeah my lay the oldies in this market has been a roaring success.

Heart failure and dementia will ride to your rescue.

Stocky

Ave_it said:

Happy new year to all on pb.com

😊

And to you Ave_it.

2019 was TOP!

squareroot2

Stocky said:

Ave_it said:

Happy new year to all on pb.com

😊

And to you Ave_it.

2019 was TOP!

It was for me, especially seeing Corbyn utterly thrashed ! and seeing him chewing tacks on the way from the Commons to the Lords.

Luckyguy1983

Happy New Year all!

tlg86

isam said:

https://twitter.com/bobbymadley2/status/1212032963443122176?s=21

If Bobby's account is accurate, I think he was treated very harshly. I vaguely seem to remember a suggestion that he had actively bullied someone, but that doesn't sound like what happened.

MightyAlex

squareroot2 said:

Stocky said:

Ave_it said:

Happy new year to all on pb.com

😊

And to you Ave_it.

2019 was TOP!

It was for me, especially seeing Corbyn utterly thrashed ! and seeing him chewing tacks on the way from the Commons to the Lords.

You are Max Mosley and I claim my £5.

Nigelb

ydoethur said:

Nigelb said:

ydoethur said:

rottenborough said:

OldKingCole said:

Happy New Year everyone. A wife, a roast pheasant and a nice bottle of red call!

I wish everyone all you wish yourselves! And to those not in the best of health, a speedy recovery.

Happy New Year everyone.

Personally, I can't wait to see the back of 2019. Wishing everyone a peaceful 2020.

While I shall not be sorry to see this year go, I worry next year will be no better.

I have to agree with the both of you.

Wishing everyone a Happy New Year nonetheless.

I wish everyone a happy new year. I’ve no problem with that.

I’m not sure we’ll have one though, it’s going to be bumpy.

(I don’t think it will be great for me personally, but that’s a separate issue.)

Can’t dissent from any of that.

squareroot2

MightyAlex said:

squareroot2 said:

Stocky said:

Ave_it said:

Happy new year to all on pb.com

😊

And to you Ave_it.

2019 was TOP!

It was for me, especially seeing Corbyn utterly thrashed ! and seeing him chewing tacks on the way from the Commons to the Lords.

You are Max Mosley and I claim my £5.

Clainm refused! I appreciate that not everyone on PB will enjoy Corbyn's humiliation at the polls and his subsequent discomfort, but I enjoyed every minute of it.

Gabs3

rcs1000 said:

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

I agree that is the nub of the problem. I just don't see where society gets the money from to pick up the tab otherwise.

The problem can be summarised very simply, since 2000 the share of government spending on pensions and healthcare has gone from 30% to 45%.

That's a lot of austerity needed in other areas to compensate.

And, it is worth remembering, even if the number of pensioners remained constant, then pensions costs will grow faster than tax receipts because of the triple lock. But it's worse than that, because we're heading towards the biggest bulge in the population pyramid: the number of pensioners is going to grow significantly in the next decade, as the number of people of working age falls.

Healthcare (and care for those with dementia and the like) is getting more expensive too. Whether it is drugs, or simply the fact that 80 year olds have an order of magnitude more health care expenses than 30 year olds.

And all this is happening while we're at the tail end of an economic expansion, having spent all our foreign savings, and with government debt-to-GDP at twice the level it was before the last recession.

The money has to come from somewhere. It can either come from the savings of old people, or from the current incomes of the young.

Neither of which is obviously politically popular.

The policy conclusion here is a mixture that neither the Right or the Left wants to accept. We need a lot more generous support for parents to have more kids, including tax credits and free childcare. And we also need a lot more immigration, ideally of people earning at or above middle income that are net taxpayers.

Nigelb

kle4 said:

No more love for Pete the golden boy?

There’s a theory about that....
https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/31/elizabeth-warren-howard-dean-2020-091557
“I think the Warren-Pete fight in Iowa is probably going to hurt them in the way that Dean-Gephardt ‘murder-suicide pact’ did,” Joe Trippi, a top strategist on Dean’s campaign, said ruefully....

Could turn out to be right.
Warren’s attack on him was undoubtedly effective, but fundamentally misconceived (as well as being significantly inaccurate). Not a good look for a politician of principle.

It will be interesting to see if Buttigieg can respond effectively without damaging himself in the process.

The last the the Democrats need is the various parts of the coalition engaging in internecine warfare, and they know it.

Nigelb

Anyway, things to do.
Enjoy the festivities.

state_go_away

Gabs3 said:

rcs1000 said:

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

I agree that is the nub of the problem. I just don't see where society gets the money from to pick up the tab otherwise.

The problem can be summarised very simply, since 2000 the share of government spending on pensions and healthcare has gone from 30% to 45%.

That's a lot of austerity needed in other areas to compensate.

And, it is worth remembering, even if the number of pensioners remained constant, then pensions costs will grow faster than tax receipts because of the triple lock. But it's worse than that, because we're heading towards the biggest bulge in the population pyramid: the number of pensioners is going to grow significantly in the next decade, as the number of people of working age falls.

Healthcare (and care for those with dementia and the like) is getting more expensive too. Whether it is drugs, or simply the fact that 80 year olds have an order of magnitude more health care expenses than 30 year olds.

And all this is happening while we're at the tail end of an economic expansion, having spent all our foreign savings, and with government debt-to-GDP at twice the level it was before the last recession.

The money has to come from somewhere. It can either come from the savings of old people, or from the current incomes of the young.

Neither of which is obviously politically popular.

The policy conclusion here is a mixture that neither the Right or the Left wants to accept. We need a lot more generous support for parents to have more kids, including tax credits and free childcare. And we also need a lot more immigration, ideally of people earning at or above middle income that are net taxpayers.

We also need the courage to ask old people to unlock their wealth to pay fro their own care. Its getting quite ridiculous the amount of wealth that old people have and don't frankly need .

Casino_Royale

I'm laying Bernie at current odds.

Anyway, happy New Year everyone.

state_go_away

tlg86 said:

isam said:

https://twitter.com/bobbymadley2/status/1212032963443122176?s=21

If Bobby's account is accurate, I think he was treated very harshly. I vaguely seem to remember a suggestion that he had actively bullied someone, but that doesn't sound like what happened.

Being funny without causing offence is still possible but its an increasingly specialist skill. Like fire eating and tightrope walking its best left to pros!

Barnesian

squareroot2 said:

MightyAlex said:

squareroot2 said:

Stocky said:

Ave_it said:

Happy new year to all on pb.com

😊

And to you Ave_it.

2019 was TOP!

It was for me, especially seeing Corbyn utterly thrashed ! and seeing him chewing tacks on the way from the Commons to the Lords.

You are Max Mosley and I claim my £5.

Clainm refused! I appreciate that not everyone on PB will enjoy Corbyn's humiliation at the polls and his subsequent discomfort, but I enjoyed every minute of it.

To everything there is a season
a time to weep, and a time to laugh; a time to mourn, and a time to dance
especially in politics.

state_go_away

anyway my bet on Liverpool to win the Premier League at the start of the season will now cause me to shift into a parallel universe for 2020 where they don't so farewell all those that stay in this universe for 2020.

Gabs3

state_go_away said:

Gabs3 said:

rcs1000 said:

rcs1000 said:

DavidL said:

I agree that is the nub of the problem. I just don't see where society gets the money from to pick up the tab otherwise.

The problem can be summarised very simply, since 2000 the share of government spending on pensions and healthcare has gone from 30% to 45%.

That's a lot of austerity needed in other areas to compensate.

And, it is worth remembering, even if the number of pensioners remained constant, then pensions costs will grow faster than tax receipts because of the triple lock. But it's worse than that, because we're heading towards the biggest bulge in the population pyramid: the number of pensioners is going to grow significantly in the next decade, as the number of people of working age falls.

Healthcare (and care for those with dementia and the like) is getting more expensive too. Whether it is drugs, or simply the fact that 80 year olds have an order of magnitude more health care expenses than 30 year olds.

And all this is happening while we're at the tail end of an economic expansion, having spent all our foreign savings, and with government debt-to-GDP at twice the level it was before the last recession.

The money has to come from somewhere. It can either come from the savings of old people, or from the current incomes of the young.

Neither of which is obviously politically popular.

The policy conclusion here is a mixture that neither the Right or the Left wants to accept. We need a lot more generous support for parents to have more kids, including tax credits and free childcare. And we also need a lot more immigration, ideally of people earning at or above middle income that are net taxpayers.

We also need the courage to ask old people to unlock their wealth to pay fro their own care. Its getting quite ridiculous the amount of wealth that old people have and don't frankly need .

The problem is Theresa May tried that and it ended her political career. I can't see another politician trying.

squareroot2

Barnesian said:

squareroot2 said:

MightyAlex said:

squareroot2 said:

Stocky said:

Ave_it said:

Happy new year to all on pb.com

😊

And to you Ave_it.

2019 was TOP!

It was for me, especially seeing Corbyn utterly thrashed ! and seeing him chewing tacks on the way from the Commons to the Lords.

You are Max Mosley and I claim my £5.

Clainm refused! I appreciate that not everyone on PB will enjoy Corbyn's humiliation at the polls and his subsequent discomfort, but I enjoyed every minute of it.

To everything there is a season
a time to weep, and a time to laugh; a time to mourn, and a time to dance
especially in politics.

Not for Corbyn , McDonnell, Milne et al...

ydoethur

squareroot2 said:

Barnesian said:

squareroot2 said:

MightyAlex said:

squareroot2 said:

Stocky said:

Ave_it said:

Happy new year to all on pb.com

😊

And to you Ave_it.

2019 was TOP!

It was for me, especially seeing Corbyn utterly thrashed ! and seeing him chewing tacks on the way from the Commons to the Lords.

You are Max Mosley and I claim my £5.

Clainm refused! I appreciate that not everyone on PB will enjoy Corbyn's humiliation at the polls and his subsequent discomfort, but I enjoyed every minute of it.

To everything there is a season
a time to weep, and a time to laugh; a time to mourn, and a time to dance
especially in politics.

Not for Corbyn , McDonnell, Milne et al...

Both dancing and laughing are very bourgeois activities.

Barnesian

squareroot2 said:

Barnesian said:

squareroot2 said:

MightyAlex said:

squareroot2 said:

Stocky said:

Ave_it said:

Happy new year to all on pb.com

😊

And to you Ave_it.

2019 was TOP!

It was for me, especially seeing Corbyn utterly thrashed ! and seeing him chewing tacks on the way from the Commons to the Lords.

You are Max Mosley and I claim my £5.

Clainm refused! I appreciate that not everyone on PB will enjoy Corbyn's humiliation at the polls and his subsequent discomfort, but I enjoyed every minute of it.

To everything there is a season
a time to weep, and a time to laugh; a time to mourn, and a time to dance
especially in politics.

Not for Corbyn , McDonnell, Milne et al...

Yes - it should read

To everything there is a season
a time to laugh, and a time to weep; a time to dance, and a time to mourn
especially in politics.

maaarsh

squareroot2 said:

Barnesian said:

squareroot2 said:

MightyAlex said:

squareroot2 said:

Stocky said:

Ave_it said:

Happy new year to all on pb.com

😊

And to you Ave_it.

2019 was TOP!

It was for me, especially seeing Corbyn utterly thrashed ! and seeing him chewing tacks on the way from the Commons to the Lords.

You are Max Mosley and I claim my £5.

Clainm refused! I appreciate that not everyone on PB will enjoy Corbyn's humiliation at the polls and his subsequent discomfort, but I enjoyed every minute of it.

To everything there is a season
a time to weep, and a time to laugh; a time to mourn, and a time to dance
especially in politics.

Not for Corbyn , McDonnell, Milne et al...

They did their dancing after winning the election in 2017...

paulyork64

Not sure if this has been posted but Burgon standing for Deputy Leader.

Floater

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7840895/Saturday-hottest-December-day-Britain-Met-Office-says.html

18.7 in Scotland on Saturday - Last time I was there was in August a couple of years back and I don't think it reached that in Aviemore any day of the week.

That temperature is astounding

paulyork64

Floater said:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7840895/Saturday-hottest-December-day-Britain-Met-Office-says.html

18.7 in Scotland on Saturday - Last time I was there was in August a couple of years back and I don't think it reached that in Aviemore any day of the week.

That temperature is astounding

And Delhi just had its coldest day for 119 years.

ydoethur

paulyork64 said:

Not sure if this has been posted but Burgon standing for Deputy Leader.

That’s a joke, right?

paulyork64

ydoethur said:

paulyork64 said:

Not sure if this has been posted but Burgon standing for Deputy Leader.

That’s a joke, right?

Not according to our local bbc news (yorkshire).

ydoethur

paulyork64 said:

ydoethur said:

paulyork64 said:

Not sure if this has been posted but Burgon standing for Deputy Leader.

That’s a joke, right?

Not according to our local bbc news (yorkshire).

Freaking hell.

But surely, if he stands and gets the nominations, that blocks Rayner so there will be no plausible left wing candidate?

Or has he not thought of that, because he’s an idiot?

squareroot2

Seasons greetings to all, and my wish for 2019 is that the Corbynistas are routed from Labour, Lansman et al, and a serious centre left Labour Party holds the Tories to account. The Country needs it badly.

rottenborough

Himmelfarb, historian of ideas, and a philosopher who Gordon Brown was very interested in, has passed away:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/31/books/gertrude-himmelfarb-dead.html

rottenborough

ydoethur said:

paulyork64 said:

ydoethur said:

paulyork64 said:

Not sure if this has been posted but Burgon standing for Deputy Leader.

That’s a joke, right?

Not according to our local bbc news (yorkshire).

Freaking hell.

But surely, if he stands and gets the nominations, that blocks Rayner so there will be no plausible left wing candidate?

Or has he not thought of that, because he’s an idiot?

He is in danger of getting one vote. Assuming he remembers to vote for himself.

SunnyJim

tlg86 said:

If Bobby's account is accurate, I think he was treated very harshly. I vaguely seem to remember a suggestion that he had actively bullied someone, but that doesn't sound like what happened.

How many careers have been ruined by social media and video footage on mobiles.

Imagine if this technology had been around over the last hundred years and how many brilliant careers would have been stopped in their tracks.

EPG

SunnyJim said:

tlg86 said:

If Bobby's account is accurate, I think he was treated very harshly. I vaguely seem to remember a suggestion that he had actively bullied someone, but that doesn't sound like what happened.

How many careers have been ruined by social media and video footage on mobiles.

Imagine if this technology had been around over the last hundred years and how many brilliant careers would have been stopped in their tracks.

Every career ruined is someone else's career advanced. Not a problem for society overall, in other words.

SunnyJim

paulyork64 said:

Not sure if this has been posted but Burgon standing for Deputy Leader.

He's going to be the Tory 3 quidder choice for Deputy.

Still not sure who the best candidate for leader will be though.

ydoethur

SunnyJim said:

paulyork64 said:

Not sure if this has been posted but Burgon standing for Deputy Leader.

He's going to be the Tory 3 quidder choice for Deputy.

Still not sure who the best candidate for leader will be though.

At the moment there’s a ‘least abysmal’ choice, not a ‘best’ one, and that is Starmer.

We can therefore be fairly certain he won’t win.

SunnyJim

EPG said:

Every career ruined is someone else's career advanced. Not a problem for society overall, in other words.

That makes the assumption that the replacement is of equal quality.

ydoethur

SunnyJim said:

tlg86 said:

If Bobby's account is accurate, I think he was treated very harshly. I vaguely seem to remember a suggestion that he had actively bullied someone, but that doesn't sound like what happened.

How many careers have been ruined by social media and video footage on mobiles.

Imagine if this technology had been around over the last hundred years and how many brilliant careers would have been stopped in their tracks.

Gladstone would certainly not have survived it. Nor, in all probability, would Disraeli.

MaxPB

Happy New Year PB! Off to South London, hope to see you in the next decade. May it be as eventful as this one.

stodge

Happy New Year to all on PB.

matt

EPG said:

SunnyJim said:

tlg86 said:

If Bobby's account is accurate, I think he was treated very harshly. I vaguely seem to remember a suggestion that he had actively bullied someone, but that doesn't sound like what happened.

How many careers have been ruined by social media and video footage on mobiles.

Imagine if this technology had been around over the last hundred years and how many brilliant careers would have been stopped in their tracks.

Every career ruined is someone else's career advanced. Not a problem for society overall, in other words.

That assumes that the ruined and the advanced are of equal intelligence and ability. That would, on its face, be a stretch.

state_go_away

matt said:

EPG said:

SunnyJim said:

tlg86 said:

If Bobby's account is accurate, I think he was treated very harshly. I vaguely seem to remember a suggestion that he had actively bullied someone, but that doesn't sound like what happened.

How many careers have been ruined by social media and video footage on mobiles.

Imagine if this technology had been around over the last hundred years and how many brilliant careers would have been stopped in their tracks.

Every career ruined is someone else's career advanced. Not a problem for society overall, in other words.

That assumes that the ruined and the advanced are of equal intelligence and ability. That would, on its face, be a stretch.

Not sure its a zero sum game this sort of thing!

Fishing

Bernie=Rebecca Long-Bailey?

Fishing

MaxPB said:

Happy New Year PB! Off to South London, hope to see you in the next decade. May it be as eventful as this one.

You're lost in South London till 2021? Rather you than me...

slade

Left a family gathering early with a streaming cold-not the way to end the year. But I hope all PBers have a prosperous and happy 2020 (fat chance!)

matt

Fishing said:

MaxPB said:

Happy New Year PB! Off to South London, hope to see you in the next decade. May it be as eventful as this one.

You're lost in South London till 2021? Rather you than me...

Dulwich is ok. Gipsy Hill though...

nunu2

Do we think Ben Bradley MP for the safe Tory seat of Mansfield could become a government minister?

ydoethur

nunu2 said:

Do we think Ben Bradley MP for the safe Tory seat of Mansfield could become a government minister?

Given the huge number of gaffes he’s made, he’s a shoe-in as Foreign Secretary.

rottenborough

ydoethur said:

SunnyJim said:

paulyork64 said:

Not sure if this has been posted but Burgon standing for Deputy Leader.

He's going to be the Tory 3 quidder choice for Deputy.

Still not sure who the best candidate for leader will be though.

At the moment there’s a ‘least abysmal’ choice, not a ‘best’ one, and that is Starmer.

We can therefore be fairly certain he won’t win.

It is Yvette's duty to stand.

TheGreenMachine

stodge said:

Happy New Year to all on PB.

Same to you and all.

EPG

matt said:

EPG said:

SunnyJim said:

tlg86 said:

If Bobby's account is accurate, I think he was treated very harshly. I vaguely seem to remember a suggestion that he had actively bullied someone, but that doesn't sound like what happened.

How many careers have been ruined by social media and video footage on mobiles.

Imagine if this technology had been around over the last hundred years and how many brilliant careers would have been stopped in their tracks.

Every career ruined is someone else's career advanced. Not a problem for society overall, in other words.

That assumes that the ruined and the advanced are of equal intelligence and ability. That would, on its face, be a stretch.

Without commenting on any case in particular, I assume those who get caught could in many cases have avoided getting caught with some intelligence and ability.

Sunil_Prasannan

Fishing said:

Bernie=Rebecca Long-Bailey?

RLB = Jo Swinson Mark 2

Sunil_Prasannan

squareroot2 said:

Stocky said:

Ave_it said:

Happy new year to all on pb.com

😊

And to you Ave_it.

2019 was TOP!

It was for me, especially seeing Corbyn utterly thrashed ! and seeing him chewing tacks on the way from the Commons to the Lords.

"Now I have a Parliamentary Majority. Ho ho ho!"

stodge

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Fishing said:

Bernie=Rebecca Long-Bailey?

RLB = Jo Swinson Mark 2

Long-Bailey has a majority of nearly 17,000. I know some of the Conservatives on here are already sizing up the 2024 gains but honestly?

Sunil_Prasannan

stodge said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Fishing said:

Bernie=Rebecca Long-Bailey?

RLB = Jo Swinson Mark 2

Long-Bailey has a majority of nearly 17,000. I know some of the Conservatives on here are already sizing up the 2024 gains but honestly?

No, I meant in terms of her PM aspirations and her office junior persona

malcolmg

Looks like Hogmany in A&E for me , my wife ill now. Sitting waiting to get in to see her, looks like a long wait. Still feeling like crap myself.

Sunil_Prasannan

malcolmg said:

Looks like Hogmany in A&E for me , my wife ill now. Sitting waiting to get in to see her, looks like a long wait. Still feeling like crap myself.

Hope the two of you get well soon!

EPG

Update from the statistical coalface: In a simple linear model, Leave% reliably predicts Conservative vote share gain in 2019. Historic Conservative strength and The Brexit Party strength reliably predict Conservative decline in 2019. 2017 swing, and North/South split in England, don't matter. (Scotland does predict some decline.) The Conservative vote share gain is 1% more for every 3% won by Leave. It is 1% less for every 5% for the Conservatives in 2015, and for every 2% for The Brexit Party in 2019. Region and incumbency controls are in.

stodge

Sunil_Prasannan said:

stodge said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Fishing said:

Bernie=Rebecca Long-Bailey?

RLB = Jo Swinson Mark 2

Long-Bailey has a majority of nearly 17,000. I know some of the Conservatives on here are already sizing up the 2024 gains but honestly?

No, I meant in terms of her PM aspirations and her office junior persona

I'd prefer to judge her on what she does as Labour leader and the policy agenda she puts forward rather than your outmoded superficial nonsense.

malcolmg

Sunil_Prasannan said:

malcolmg said:

Looks like Hogmany in A&E for me , my wife ill now. Sitting waiting to get in to see her, looks like a long wait. Still feeling like crap myself.

Hope the two of you get well soon!

cheers

stodge

malcolmg said:

Looks like Hogmany in A&E for me , my wife ill now. Sitting waiting to get in to see her, looks like a long wait. Still feeling like crap myself.

I'm really sorry to hear that, Malc. I'm a long way below par myself - damn this stupid mild winter - we need a decent two weeks of sub-zero temperatures to kill off the germs.

malcolmg

stodge said:

malcolmg said:

Looks like Hogmany in A&E for me , my wife ill now. Sitting waiting to get in to see her, looks like a long wait. Still feeling like crap myself.

I'm really sorry to hear that, Malc. I'm a long way below par myself - damn this stupid mild winter - we need a decent two weeks of sub-zero temperatures to kill off the germs.

Best wishes to you stodge, hopefully get off to a better start in 2020.

stodge

On a complete tangent, I was watching Steve Richards today.

Does anyone think Boris Johnson is the Joseph Chamberlain of our time?

ydoethur

malcolmg said:

Looks like Hogmany in A&E for me , my wife ill now. Sitting waiting to get in to see her, looks like a long wait. Still feeling like crap myself.

Really sorry to hear this Malc. Fingers crossed it isn’t as bad as you fear. Best wishes to you both.

malcolmg

ydoethur said:

malcolmg said:

Looks like Hogmany in A&E for me , my wife ill now. Sitting waiting to get in to see her, looks like a long wait. Still feeling like crap myself.

Really sorry to hear this Malc. Fingers crossed it isn’t as bad as you fear. Best wishes to you both.

Thanks ydoethur , think she will be fine but been a bad week and she has not been getting better. Hopefully all well, I had great difficulty getting her to agree to ambulance and then even more to get her to come to hospital.

RobD

malcolmg said:

ydoethur said:

malcolmg said:

Looks like Hogmany in A&E for me , my wife ill now. Sitting waiting to get in to see her, looks like a long wait. Still feeling like crap myself.

Really sorry to hear this Malc. Fingers crossed it isn’t as bad as you fear. Best wishes to you both.

Thanks ydoethur , think she will be fine but been a bad week and she has not been getting better. Hopefully all well, I had great difficulty getting her to agree to ambulance and then even more to get her to come to hospital.

Terrible news. Wishing you both well.

felix

Feliz año nuevo a todos desde Almería en ESPAÑA !!!

Sunil_Prasannan

stodge said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

stodge said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Fishing said:

Bernie=Rebecca Long-Bailey?

RLB = Jo Swinson Mark 2

Long-Bailey has a majority of nearly 17,000. I know some of the Conservatives on here are already sizing up the 2024 gains but honestly?

No, I meant in terms of her PM aspirations and her office junior persona

I'd prefer to judge her on what she does as Labour leader and the policy agenda she puts forward rather than your outmoded superficial nonsense.

We shall see in due course!

Big_G_NorthWales

Hi Malc.

Just reading the thread and so sorry you and your good lady are unwell

Just want to send my best wishes to you both to recover soon and look forward to an interesting 2020

dr_spyn

Best wishes for a Happy New Year to PB contributors, readers, thread posters, OGH and lurkers.

@malcolmg Hope your wife has a speedy recovery, and that you can get some rest tonight.

Sunil_Prasannan

stodge said:

On a complete tangent, I was watching Steve Richards today.

Does anyone think Boris Johnson is the Joseph Chamberlain of our time?

You mean he'll merge the LibDems with the Tories?

About as likely as RLB becoming PM in 2024!

NickPalmer

malcolmg said:

ydoethur said:

malcolmg said:

Looks like Hogmany in A&E for me , my wife ill now. Sitting waiting to get in to see her, looks like a long wait. Still feeling like crap myself.

Really sorry to hear this Malc. Fingers crossed it isn’t as bad as you fear. Best wishes to you both.

Thanks ydoethur , think she will be fine but been a bad week and she has not been getting better. Hopefully all well, I had great difficulty getting her to agree to ambulance and then even more to get her to come to hospital.

That's awful, Malc - all the very best to you both.

matt

stodge said:

On a complete tangent, I was watching Steve Richards today.

Does anyone think Boris Johnson is the Joseph Chamberlain of our time?

One became PM and one didn’t. So prima facie, no. Is there a hot take that I’m missing?

I’d add a soupçon of imperial preference to that. Which does not seem to be Johnson,

NickPalmer

Happy 2020 all, especially Mike for hosting us so indomitably!

Sunil_Prasannan

felix said:

Feliz año nuevo a todos desde Almería en ESPAÑA !!!

Que?

(Oh and Happy New Year!)

speedy2

Happy New Year.

Theuniondivvie

malcolmg said:

Looks like Hogmany in A&E for me , my wife ill now. Sitting waiting to get in to see her, looks like a long wait. Still feeling like crap myself.

Hope you're both back to normal soon, happy New Year to everyoner else when it comes.

viewcode

@malcolmg , @Gallowgate : sorry to hear of your recent troubles. I hope things get better for you

speedy2

What matters is IOWA IOWA IOWA.

South Carolina is actually 4th.
The order for the Democratic Primary is:

Iowa (03/02)
N.Hampshire (11/02)
Nevada (22/02)
S.Carolina (29/02)
Super Tuesday (10/03)

By the end of March the contest should be over, there are very few states after March 17th.

Because the top 4 are very close in the first 3 states whoever wins Iowa will win the first 3 states due to momentum.
If Biden loses Iowa he will lose the first 3 contests in a row, 4 strait weeks of losing.

The betting therefore should reflect primarly if only Iowa, and don't forget Iowa for the Democrats has special rules too.

humbugger

Good evening all, and a very happy New Year to all PBers.

Quincel

speedy2 said:

What matters is IOWA IOWA IOWA.

South Carolina is actually 4th.
The order for the Democratic Primary is:

Iowa (03/02)
N.Hampshire (11/02)
Nevada (22/02)
S.Carolina (29/02)
Super Tuesday (10/03)

By the end of March the contest should be over, there are very few states after March 17th.

Because the top 4 are very close in the first 3 states whoever wins Iowa will win the first 3 states due to momentum.
If Biden loses Iowa he will lose the first 3 contests in a row, 4 strait weeks of losing.

The betting therefore should reflect primarly if only Iowa, and don't forget Iowa for the Democrats has special rules too.

Iowa is important, but it's far from everything. Cruz winning it in 2016 didn't stop Trump continuing his frontrunner status. Clinton barely won it the same year by under 0.5% but held her lead nationally fairly comfortably. Santorum won (essentially joint 1st) the state in 2012 but only won a handful of other states afterwards; and came 3rd in the next two states. Obama in 2008 knocked out Edwards by winning Iowa, but the race was nowhere near to being over (and he didn't carry the momentum into New Hampshire very much despite some expectations).

I'm not denying that winning Iowa has boosted the candidates who do so, but it rarely if ever dominates the process like you describe. Iowa and NH frequently have different winners, and though nominees tend to win one of them there's no rule which says you have to.

TOPPING

Malc hope all is well with you and your family. @Gallowgate same to you.

Happy New Year to all PBers.

Big_G_NorthWales

Compare and contrast Boris optimistic message to Corbyn's depressing in denial nonsense

https://twitter.com/10DowningStreet/status/1212138977953796096?s=08

Floater

malcolmg said:

ydoethur said:

malcolmg said:

Looks like Hogmany in A&E for me , my wife ill now. Sitting waiting to get in to see her, looks like a long wait. Still feeling like crap myself.

Really sorry to hear this Malc. Fingers crossed it isn’t as bad as you fear. Best wishes to you both.

Thanks ydoethur , think she will be fine but been a bad week and she has not been getting better. Hopefully all well, I had great difficulty getting her to agree to ambulance and then even more to get her to come to hospital.

Hope all turns out well Malc

kle4

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Compare and contrast Boris optimistic message to Corbyn's depressing in denial nonsense

https://twitter.com/10DowningStreet/status/1212138977953796096?s=08

He promises no more elections in 2020 - he's already abolishing the PCC and local elections, the devil!