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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the LAB leadership betting markets Starmer and Long-Bailey continue to dominate

It is now two and a half weeks since Corbyn announced his intention of standing down and although quite a number of names have been mentioned as a possible successors it is Keir Starmer and Rebecca Long Bailey who continue to attract the attention of punters.

Read the full story here

squareroot2

first like Boris

maaarsh

Tories must have a list as long as your arm of people Keir didn't prosecute who then went on to continue their career on the outside

malcolmg

3rd like the Lib Dems wish they could be

maaarsh

RLB currently good value despite being an objectively terrible candidate. At this stage in the process the moderate skewed media sets the tone, but once we get to voting the same weirdos who picked an objectively terrible candidate twice before will do it again.

squareroot2

Ed wasn't that bad, in comparison to Corbyn, he was brilliant.

MaxPB

I wonder which if these candidates will say we need a more nationalist party that is also socialist. I'd have bet on Chris Williamson but he's not an MP now.

MikeSmithson

I think that Johnson would find Starmer quite a tough proposition. While he's been in the shadow of Corbyn he has been very much curtailed but as leader he would be fairly ruthless

maaarsh

squareroot2 said:

Ed wasn't that bad, in comparison to Corbyn, he was brilliant.

They picked Jezza twice. Ed looks like a bloody giant when set against this field.

ydoethur

MaxPB said:

I wonder which if these candidates will say we need a more nationalist party that is also socialist. I'd have bet on Chris Williamson but he's not an MP now.

Are you saying he would have been not just right, but extremely right?

OldKingCole

I've always thought Starmer would be an excellent No 2 to someone a bit/lot more flamboyant.

A possible problem for Boris, incidentally, is that he hasn't got such a No 2.

HYUFD

MikeSmithson said:

I think that Johnson would find Starmer quite a tough proposition. While he's been in the shadow of Corbyn he has been very much curtailed but as leader he would be fairly ruthless

Starmer is more moderate than Corbyn but has a complete absence of charisma.

The candidate the Tories would fear most is Jess Phillips who is both centrist and charismatic (and from the Midlands while Starmer is from London) and she also tends to poll best in the few surveys of the public we have had too

DavidL

MikeSmithson said:

I think that Johnson would find Starmer quite a tough proposition. While he's been in the shadow of Corbyn he has been very much curtailed but as leader he would be fairly ruthless

There is no doubt that he would be a significant improvement on Corbyn but frankly that should not be the bar. I find him dull, slightly pompous and overly sure of himself. A typical lawyer really.

HYUFD

A leadership survey of Labour List readers has Long Bailey first on 14.4% narrowly ahead of Starmer on 13.8%.

Rayner is 3rd on 13.5% with Phillips 4th on 6.7%.

When Corbyn took the lead in the Labour List survey in 2015 it was one of the first signs he could win.

https://labourlist.org/2019/12/long-bailey-and-rayner-picked-for-top-jobs-by-labourlist-readers/?amp

Gallowgate

DavidL said:

MikeSmithson said:

I think that Johnson would find Starmer quite a tough proposition. While he's been in the shadow of Corbyn he has been very much curtailed but as leader he would be fairly ruthless

There is no doubt that he would be a significant improvement on Corbyn but frankly that should not be the bar. I find him dull, slightly pompous and overly sure of himself. A typical lawyer really.

When Boris eventually has to make real, unpopular decisions, people will tire of his ‘japes’.

A boring but competent ‘steady hand on the wheel’ may be what people want.

ydoethur

MikeSmithson said:

I think that Johnson would find Starmer quite a tough proposition. While he's been in the shadow of Corbyn he has been very much curtailed but as leader he would be fairly ruthless

If he struggled with the CPS (admittedly like everyone else) I cannot see him sorting out Labour which needs somebody energetic, decisive, clear thinking and articulate. Starmer isn’t that.

But from the point of view of Labour members, his back story isn’t the greatest given that Labour seem determined to try and fight the class and type wars of the nineteenth century. The millionaire privately educated London human rights lawyer is not somebody they will be interested in when they are going big oh Old Etonians.

TGOHF666

MikeSmithson said:

I think that Johnson would find Starmer quite a tough proposition. While he's been in the shadow of Corbyn he has been very much curtailed but as leader he would be fairly ruthless

Starmer is Phil Hammond without the spreadsheet.

Seems centrist melts bet whilst Corbynites tweet - he’s into 2.7 whilst RLB is out to 4s.

OldKingCole

DavidL said:

MikeSmithson said:

I think that Johnson would find Starmer quite a tough proposition. While he's been in the shadow of Corbyn he has been very much curtailed but as leader he would be fairly ruthless

There is no doubt that he would be a significant improvement on Corbyn but frankly that should not be the bar. I find him dull, slightly pompous and overly sure of himself. A typical lawyer really.

I would pay good money to see Johnson subject to forensic questioning from which he could not escape by bluster.

DavidL

OldKingCole said:

I've always thought Starmer would be an excellent No 2 to someone a bit/lot more flamboyant.

A possible problem for Boris, incidentally, is that he hasn't got such a No 2.

Agreed. He has still to find his Osborne, Brown, Mandelson, Howe etc who makes sure things actually get done.

malcolmg

OldKingCole said:

I've always thought Starmer would be an excellent No 2 to someone a bit/lot more flamboyant.

A possible problem for Boris, incidentally, is that he hasn't got such a No 2.

He does have the poisonous odious creepy sleazeball Gove

ydoethur

OldKingCole said:

I've always thought Starmer would be an excellent No 2 to someone a bit/lot more flamboyant.

A possible problem for Boris, incidentally, is that he hasn't got such a No 2.

Boris has plenty of number twos around him.

He just doesn’t have a capable deputy.

felix

Curse of thenew thread: What the Liberal left simply do not get is that most people are either not poor at all or do not wish to be made poor by paying extra taxes for those who they perceive to be shirkers. It doesn't really matter whether they are correct or not in that belief. People are happy with a safety net but not when it appears to encompass folk who they say as lazy or feckless. The language of the left is wholly focussed around food banks/bedroom taxes/minorities/wokeness, etc,etc. Oh and not to forget anti Israel/USA/Britain.... The only person they'd accept as a monarch is Queen Meghan and they'd happily see Owen Jones thrown from the rooftops. Those contradictions aside they're doomed I tell you doomed! Sedgefield, Dartford,Totnes, Copeland, Conwy, Walsall, Mansfield, Yarmouth and even Hastings don't want to know.

Animal_pb

OldKingCole said:

I've always thought Starmer would be an excellent No 2 to someone a bit/lot more flamboyant.

A possible problem for Boris, incidentally, is that he hasn't got such a No 2.

Michael Gove has often been described as a massive number 2.

OldKingCole

malcolmg said:

OldKingCole said:

I've always thought Starmer would be an excellent No 2 to someone a bit/lot more flamboyant.

A possible problem for Boris, incidentally, is that he hasn't got such a No 2.

He does have the poisonous odious creepy sleazeball Gove

Boris would, I suspect, rather have Gove where he could see him.

RobD

Gallowgate said:

DavidL said:

MikeSmithson said:

I think that Johnson would find Starmer quite a tough proposition. While he's been in the shadow of Corbyn he has been very much curtailed but as leader he would be fairly ruthless

There is no doubt that he would be a significant improvement on Corbyn but frankly that should not be the bar. I find him dull, slightly pompous and overly sure of himself. A typical lawyer really.

When Boris eventually has to make real, unpopular decisions, people will tire of his ‘japes’.

A boring but competent ‘steady hand on the wheel’ may be what people want.

Like May?

ydoethur

malcolmg said:

OldKingCole said:

I've always thought Starmer would be an excellent No 2 to someone a bit/lot more flamboyant.

A possible problem for Boris, incidentally, is that he hasn't got such a No 2.

He does have the poisonous odious creepy sleazeball Gove

Blimey Malc, that’s a bit on the harsh side.

What have you got against poisonous, odious, creepy sleazeballs that you compare them to Gove?

(Hope that didn’t cause you to cough too much.)

felix

malcolmg said:

OldKingCole said:

I've always thought Starmer would be an excellent No 2 to someone a bit/lot more flamboyant.

A possible problem for Boris, incidentally, is that he hasn't got such a No 2.

He does have the poisonous odious creepy sleazeball Gove

I think MalcG likes him!

DavidL

OldKingCole said:

DavidL said:

MikeSmithson said:

I think that Johnson would find Starmer quite a tough proposition. While he's been in the shadow of Corbyn he has been very much curtailed but as leader he would be fairly ruthless

There is no doubt that he would be a significant improvement on Corbyn but frankly that should not be the bar. I find him dull, slightly pompous and overly sure of himself. A typical lawyer really.

I would pay good money to see Johnson subject to forensic questioning from which he could not escape by bluster.

You are still underestimating him. Blustering through PMQs is a piece of cake. Appearing before the committee chairs is starting to look more challenging.

OldKingCole

ydoethur said:

OldKingCole said:

I've always thought Starmer would be an excellent No 2 to someone a bit/lot more flamboyant.

A possible problem for Boris, incidentally, is that he hasn't got such a No 2.

Boris has plenty of number twos around him.

He just doesn’t have a capable deputy.

It's a bit late to be demob happy isn't it? Don't you start again next week?

Morris_Dancer

Meanwhile, in 'papers, please' news:
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/dec/26/edinburgh-residents-restrictions-hogmanay

ydoethur

OldKingCole said:

ydoethur said:

OldKingCole said:

I've always thought Starmer would be an excellent No 2 to someone a bit/lot more flamboyant.

A possible problem for Boris, incidentally, is that he hasn't got such a No 2.

Boris has plenty of number twos around him.

He just doesn’t have a capable deputy.

It's a bit late to be demob happy isn't it? Don't you start again next week?

Why did you have to remind me?!!!!

OldKingCole

DavidL said:

OldKingCole said:

DavidL said:

MikeSmithson said:

I think that Johnson would find Starmer quite a tough proposition. While he's been in the shadow of Corbyn he has been very much curtailed but as leader he would be fairly ruthless

There is no doubt that he would be a significant improvement on Corbyn but frankly that should not be the bar. I find him dull, slightly pompous and overly sure of himself. A typical lawyer really.

I would pay good money to see Johnson subject to forensic questioning from which he could not escape by bluster.

You are still underestimating him. Blustering through PMQs is a piece of cake. Appearing before the committee chairs is starting to look more challenging.

Point taken. Which is why he avoided it before the election.

DavidL

Gallowgate said:

DavidL said:

MikeSmithson said:

I think that Johnson would find Starmer quite a tough proposition. While he's been in the shadow of Corbyn he has been very much curtailed but as leader he would be fairly ruthless

There is no doubt that he would be a significant improvement on Corbyn but frankly that should not be the bar. I find him dull, slightly pompous and overly sure of himself. A typical lawyer really.

When Boris eventually has to make real, unpopular decisions, people will tire of his ‘japes’.

A boring but competent ‘steady hand on the wheel’ may be what people want.

And your evidence for this (post Attlee) would be?

OldKingCole

ydoethur said:

OldKingCole said:

ydoethur said:

OldKingCole said:

I've always thought Starmer would be an excellent No 2 to someone a bit/lot more flamboyant.

A possible problem for Boris, incidentally, is that he hasn't got such a No 2.

Boris has plenty of number twos around him.

He just doesn’t have a capable deputy.

It's a bit late to be demob happy isn't it? Don't you start again next week?

Why did you have to remind me?!!!!

Because I don't have to go to work any more and am at last able to plan a long trip without health concerns.
Hence GLOAT!

HYUFD

felix said:

Curse of thenew thread: What the Liberal left simply do not get is that most people are either not poor at all or do not wish to be made poor by paying extra taxes for those who they perceive to be shirkers. It doesn't really matter whether they are correct or not in that belief. People are happy with a safety net but not when it appears to encompass folk who they say as lazy or feckless. The language of the left is wholly focussed around food banks/bedroom taxes/minorities/wokeness, etc,etc. Oh and not to forget anti Israel/USA/Britain.... The only person they'd accept as a monarch is Queen Meghan and they'd happily see Owen Jones thrown from the rooftops. Those contradictions aside they're doomed I tell you doomed! Sedgefield, Dartford,Totnes, Copeland, Conwy, Walsall, Mansfield, Yarmouth and even Hastings don't want to know.

The left's core vote is those of working age on state benefits and who work for the public sector and they build from there

ydoethur

OldKingCole said:

ydoethur said:

OldKingCole said:

ydoethur said:

OldKingCole said:

I've always thought Starmer would be an excellent No 2 to someone a bit/lot more flamboyant.

A possible problem for Boris, incidentally, is that he hasn't got such a No 2.

Boris has plenty of number twos around him.

He just doesn’t have a capable deputy.

It's a bit late to be demob happy isn't it? Don't you start again next week?

Why did you have to remind me?!!!!

Because I don't have to go to work any more and am at last able to plan a long trip without health concerns.
Hence GLOAT!

*sulks furiously*

Glad to hear you’re better though.

DavidL

Animal_pb said:

OldKingCole said:

I've always thought Starmer would be an excellent No 2 to someone a bit/lot more flamboyant.

A possible problem for Boris, incidentally, is that he hasn't got such a No 2.

Michael Gove has often been described as a massive number 2.

We have a winner.

HYUFD

DavidL said:

OldKingCole said:

I've always thought Starmer would be an excellent No 2 to someone a bit/lot more flamboyant.

A possible problem for Boris, incidentally, is that he hasn't got such a No 2.

Agreed. He has still to find his Osborne, Brown, Mandelson, Howe etc who makes sure things actually get done.

Cummings and Gove

TGOHF666

malcolmg said:

OldKingCole said:

I've always thought Starmer would be an excellent No 2 to someone a bit/lot more flamboyant.

A possible problem for Boris, incidentally, is that he hasn't got such a No 2.

He does have the poisonous odious creepy sleazeball Gove

Gove sticks up for Scottish fishermen - the SNP should applaud this.

OldKingCole

ydoethur said:

OldKingCole said:

ydoethur said:

OldKingCole said:

ydoethur said:

OldKingCole said:

I've always thought Starmer would be an excellent No 2 to someone a bit/lot more flamboyant.

A possible problem for Boris, incidentally, is that he hasn't got such a No 2.

Boris has plenty of number twos around him.

He just doesn’t have a capable deputy.

It's a bit late to be demob happy isn't it? Don't you start again next week?

Why did you have to remind me?!!!!

Because I don't have to go to work any more and am at last able to plan a long trip without health concerns.
Hence GLOAT!

*sulks furiously*

Glad to hear you’re better though.

I am reminded of the time that PM Heath got something over on Labour, which left them in a mess, and Willie Whitelaw was reported as saying that "Ted says we mustn't gloat. Wrong to gloat'
Then added 'But I'm gloating like hell!'

And thanks.

DavidL

OldKingCole said:

DavidL said:

OldKingCole said:

DavidL said:

MikeSmithson said:

I think that Johnson would find Starmer quite a tough proposition. While he's been in the shadow of Corbyn he has been very much curtailed but as leader he would be fairly ruthless

There is no doubt that he would be a significant improvement on Corbyn but frankly that should not be the bar. I find him dull, slightly pompous and overly sure of himself. A typical lawyer really.

I would pay good money to see Johnson subject to forensic questioning from which he could not escape by bluster.

You are still underestimating him. Blustering through PMQs is a piece of cake. Appearing before the committee chairs is starting to look more challenging.

Point taken. Which is why he avoided it before the election.

With my boring pompous lawyer hat on it’s an interesting constitutional development which shows considerable promise in holding PMs to account in ways PMQs totally fails to do. It’s much needed.

ydoethur

DavidL said:

Gallowgate said:

DavidL said:

MikeSmithson said:

I think that Johnson would find Starmer quite a tough proposition. While he's been in the shadow of Corbyn he has been very much curtailed but as leader he would be fairly ruthless

There is no doubt that he would be a significant improvement on Corbyn but frankly that should not be the bar. I find him dull, slightly pompous and overly sure of himself. A typical lawyer really.

When Boris eventually has to make real, unpopular decisions, people will tire of his ‘japes’.

A boring but competent ‘steady hand on the wheel’ may be what people want.

And your evidence for this (post Attlee) would be?

John Major?

ydoethur

HYUFD said:

DavidL said:

OldKingCole said:

I've always thought Starmer would be an excellent No 2 to someone a bit/lot more flamboyant.

A possible problem for Boris, incidentally, is that he hasn't got such a No 2.

Agreed. He has still to find his Osborne, Brown, Mandelson, Howe etc who makes sure things actually get done.

Cummings and Gove

Gets done with vague levels of competence.

alex_

FPT Re: minimum wage increase. Whether it’s a good idea or not is a topic of discussion, but Labour seem to have already decided that their method of attack (in trying to “win back” their lost voters) is going to be “snake oil Johnson breaks his promises”. (notice how so far they’ve been jumping on every nuance in Government announcements to assume this is the intention - eg. workers rights/environmental protections taken out of WA (and put in separate bills, national living wage increase if economic conditions allow etc etc.). Which is going to look increasingly ridiculous if Johnson continually, er, keeps them.

From a more traditional (but non tribal) Conservative viewpoint one of the main concerns about Johnson was always that he would basically do anything for popularity. Which means that it is expected that he will waste a large amount of money on big vote grabbing initiatives (following the London Mayoral blueprint). But that is not to say that a bit of spending might not ultimately be a good thing.

Foxy

HYUFD said:

felix said:

Curse of thenew thread: What the Liberal left simply do not get is that most people are either not poor at all or do not wish to be made poor by paying extra taxes for those who they perceive to be shirkers. It doesn't really matter whether they are correct or not in that belief. People are happy with a safety net but not when it appears to encompass folk who they say as lazy or feckless. The language of the left is wholly focussed around food banks/bedroom taxes/minorities/wokeness, etc,etc. Oh and not to forget anti Israel/USA/Britain.... The only person they'd accept as a monarch is Queen Meghan and they'd happily see Owen Jones thrown from the rooftops. Those contradictions aside they're doomed I tell you doomed! Sedgefield, Dartford,Totnes, Copeland, Conwy, Walsall, Mansfield, Yarmouth and even Hastings don't want to know.

The left's core vote is those of working age on state benefits and who work for the public sector and they build from there

Quite obviously nonsense unless you think that university graduates fit that stereotype.

DavidL

ydoethur said:

DavidL said:

Gallowgate said:

DavidL said:

MikeSmithson said:

I think that Johnson would find Starmer quite a tough proposition. While he's been in the shadow of Corbyn he has been very much curtailed but as leader he would be fairly ruthless

There is no doubt that he would be a significant improvement on Corbyn but frankly that should not be the bar. I find him dull, slightly pompous and overly sure of himself. A typical lawyer really.

When Boris eventually has to make real, unpopular decisions, people will tire of his ‘japes’.

A boring but competent ‘steady hand on the wheel’ may be what people want.

And your evidence for this (post Attlee) would be?

John Major?

Ok, arguable. Traffic cone hotlines were a bit racy though.

OldKingCole

TGOHF666 said:

malcolmg said:

OldKingCole said:

I've always thought Starmer would be an excellent No 2 to someone a bit/lot more flamboyant.

A possible problem for Boris, incidentally, is that he hasn't got such a No 2.

He does have the poisonous odious creepy sleazeball Gove

Gove sticks up for Scottish fishermen - the SNP should applaud this.

I always get the impression that we are not told the whole story, in one place, about the EU and the UK fishing industry.
Too many soundbites and one-liners.

Gallowgate

DavidL said:

Gallowgate said:

DavidL said:

MikeSmithson said:

I think that Johnson would find Starmer quite a tough proposition. While he's been in the shadow of Corbyn he has been very much curtailed but as leader he would be fairly ruthless

There is no doubt that he would be a significant improvement on Corbyn but frankly that should not be the bar. I find him dull, slightly pompous and overly sure of himself. A typical lawyer really.

When Boris eventually has to make real, unpopular decisions, people will tire of his ‘japes’.

A boring but competent ‘steady hand on the wheel’ may be what people want.

And your evidence for this (post Attlee) would be?

No evidence. Just a thought. Hence the ‘may be’.

Luckyguy1983

OldKingCole said:

TGOHF666 said:

malcolmg said:

OldKingCole said:

I've always thought Starmer would be an excellent No 2 to someone a bit/lot more flamboyant.

A possible problem for Boris, incidentally, is that he hasn't got such a No 2.

He does have the poisonous odious creepy sleazeball Gove

Gove sticks up for Scottish fishermen - the SNP should applaud this.

I always get the impression that we are not told the whole story, in one place, about the EU and the UK fishing industry.
Too many soundbites and one-liners.

Are we really going to do this - it's becoming a bit of a drag.

DavidL

TGOHF666 said:

malcolmg said:

OldKingCole said:

I've always thought Starmer would be an excellent No 2 to someone a bit/lot more flamboyant.

A possible problem for Boris, incidentally, is that he hasn't got such a No 2.

He does have the poisonous odious creepy sleazeball Gove

Gove sticks up for Scottish fishermen - the SNP should applaud this.

If Gove didn’t stand up for lots of random groups he would run out of people to betray. And where would the fun be in that?

isam

I had Starmer as a big loser, RLB slightly better and Rayner, Thornberry, and a few non runners as big winners, but I closed them all out for a loss on the news that Rayner isn't running.

Non betting glasses on, they have to pick a woman. There is no charismatic man on their books, and Starmer is too stiff to beat Boris. Jess Phillips would be best I reckon, faux working class cabaret act notwithstanding

DavidL

ydoethur said:

OldKingCole said:

ydoethur said:

OldKingCole said:

I've always thought Starmer would be an excellent No 2 to someone a bit/lot more flamboyant.

A possible problem for Boris, incidentally, is that he hasn't got such a No 2.

Boris has plenty of number twos around him.

He just doesn’t have a capable deputy.

It's a bit late to be demob happy isn't it? Don't you start again next week?

Why did you have to remind me?!!!!

I hope that things have calmed down a bit with the break etc. You were hinting that a parting of the ways was on the cards near the end of term.

alex_

OldKingCole said:

TGOHF666 said:

malcolmg said:

OldKingCole said:

I've always thought Starmer would be an excellent No 2 to someone a bit/lot more flamboyant.

A possible problem for Boris, incidentally, is that he hasn't got such a No 2.

He does have the poisonous odious creepy sleazeball Gove

Gove sticks up for Scottish fishermen - the SNP should applaud this.

I always get the impression that we are not told the whole story, in one place, about the EU and the UK fishing industry.
Too many soundbites and one-liners.

The U.K. fishing industry made money selling off its fleet and quotas to the EU and now want them back for nothing?

ydoethur

DavidL said:

ydoethur said:

OldKingCole said:

ydoethur said:

OldKingCole said:

I've always thought Starmer would be an excellent No 2 to someone a bit/lot more flamboyant.

A possible problem for Boris, incidentally, is that he hasn't got such a No 2.

Boris has plenty of number twos around him.

He just doesn’t have a capable deputy.

It's a bit late to be demob happy isn't it? Don't you start again next week?

Why did you have to remind me?!!!!

I hope that things have calmed down a bit with the break etc. You were hinting that a parting of the ways was on the cards near the end of term.

Well, I will find out next week. Hopefully everything will be less intense. But there is a very real risk that this will end up in the courts, in which case I won’t be wanting to stay.

DavidL

Gallowgate said:

DavidL said:

Gallowgate said:

DavidL said:

MikeSmithson said:

I think that Johnson would find Starmer quite a tough proposition. While he's been in the shadow of Corbyn he has been very much curtailed but as leader he would be fairly ruthless

There is no doubt that he would be a significant improvement on Corbyn but frankly that should not be the bar. I find him dull, slightly pompous and overly sure of himself. A typical lawyer really.

When Boris eventually has to make real, unpopular decisions, people will tire of his ‘japes’.

A boring but competent ‘steady hand on the wheel’ may be what people want.

And your evidence for this (post Attlee) would be?

No evidence. Just a thought. Hence the ‘may be’.

Politics seems to be more and more like show business. Trump is an extreme in every sense but sadly I don’t see dull competence getting much of a look in anymore.

felix

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

felix said:

Curse of thenew thread: What the Liberal left simply do not get is that most people are either not poor at all or do not wish to be made poor by paying extra taxes for those who they perceive to be shirkers. It doesn't really matter whether they are correct or not in that belief. People are happy with a safety net but not when it appears to encompass folk who they say as lazy or feckless. The language of the left is wholly focussed around food banks/bedroom taxes/minorities/wokeness, etc,etc. Oh and not to forget anti Israel/USA/Britain.... The only person they'd accept as a monarch is Queen Meghan and they'd happily see Owen Jones thrown from the rooftops. Those contradictions aside they're doomed I tell you doomed! Sedgefield, Dartford,Totnes, Copeland, Conwy, Walsall, Mansfield, Yarmouth and even Hastings don't want to know.

The left's core vote is those of working age on state benefits and who work for the public sector and they build from there

Quite obviously nonsense unless you think that university graduates fit that stereotype.

I don't know the analysis but I suspect that a very high proportion of Labour voting graduates work in the public sector and that most graduates in the private sector outside the biggest cities do not vote Labour.

MikeSmithson

isam said:

I had Starmer as a big loser, RLB slightly better and Rayner, Thornberry, and a few non runners as big winners, but I closed them all out for a loss on the news that Rayner isn't running.

Non betting glasses on, they have to pick a woman. There is no charismatic man on their books, and Starmer is too stiff to beat Boris. Jess Phillips would be best I reckon, faux working class cabaret act notwithstanding

I think you are underestimating him. He has had to have operated like he has because of the shadow of team Milne/Corbyn. If he becomes his own man he'll be a totally different proposition.

Philip_Thompson

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

felix said:

Curse of thenew thread: What the Liberal left simply do not get is that most people are either not poor at all or do not wish to be made poor by paying extra taxes for those who they perceive to be shirkers. It doesn't really matter whether they are correct or not in that belief. People are happy with a safety net but not when it appears to encompass folk who they say as lazy or feckless. The language of the left is wholly focussed around food banks/bedroom taxes/minorities/wokeness, etc,etc. Oh and not to forget anti Israel/USA/Britain.... The only person they'd accept as a monarch is Queen Meghan and they'd happily see Owen Jones thrown from the rooftops. Those contradictions aside they're doomed I tell you doomed! Sedgefield, Dartford,Totnes, Copeland, Conwy, Walsall, Mansfield, Yarmouth and even Hastings don't want to know.

The left's core vote is those of working age on state benefits and who work for the public sector and they build from there

Quite obviously nonsense unless you think that university graduates fit that stereotype.

Many university graduates work in the public sector.

I'd be curious to see a split of how public v private sector graduates vote and how that changes as they age.

DavidL

alex_ said:

OldKingCole said:

TGOHF666 said:

malcolmg said:

OldKingCole said:

I've always thought Starmer would be an excellent No 2 to someone a bit/lot more flamboyant.

A possible problem for Boris, incidentally, is that he hasn't got such a No 2.

He does have the poisonous odious creepy sleazeball Gove

Gove sticks up for Scottish fishermen - the SNP should applaud this.

I always get the impression that we are not told the whole story, in one place, about the EU and the UK fishing industry.
Too many soundbites and one-liners.

The U.K. fishing industry made money selling off its fleet and quotas to the EU and now want them back for nothing?

Shhhhh. We don’t say things like that.

Foxy

OldKingCole said:

TGOHF666 said:

malcolmg said:

OldKingCole said:

I've always thought Starmer would be an excellent No 2 to someone a bit/lot more flamboyant.

A possible problem for Boris, incidentally, is that he hasn't got such a No 2.

He does have the poisonous odious creepy sleazeball Gove

Gove sticks up for Scottish fishermen - the SNP should applaud this.

I always get the impression that we are not told the whole story, in one place, about the EU and the UK fishing industry.
Too many soundbites and one-liners.

Gove has agreed no changes to fishing quotas post Brexit, they will continue to br owned by a few big firms.

https://unearthed.greenpeace.org/2018/10/11/fishing-quota-uk-defra-michael-gove/

OldKingCole

alex_ said:

OldKingCole said:

TGOHF666 said:

malcolmg said:

OldKingCole said:

I've always thought Starmer would be an excellent No 2 to someone a bit/lot more flamboyant.

A possible problem for Boris, incidentally, is that he hasn't got such a No 2.

He does have the poisonous odious creepy sleazeball Gove

Gove sticks up for Scottish fishermen - the SNP should applaud this.

I always get the impression that we are not told the whole story, in one place, about the EU and the UK fishing industry.
Too many soundbites and one-liners.

The U.K. fishing industry made money selling off its fleet and quotas to the EU and now want them back for nothing?

I have the impression that a few already quite well off people got much richer by, effectively, shafting those at the bottom and got away with it by blaming the big boy who ran away.

HYUFD

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

felix said:

Curse of thenew thread: What the Liberal left simply do not get is that most people are either not poor at all or do not wish to be made poor by paying extra taxes for those who they perceive to be shirkers. It doesn't really matter whether they are correct or not in that belief. People are happy with a safety net but not when it appears to encompass folk who they say as lazy or feckless. The language of the left is wholly focussed around food banks/bedroom taxes/minorities/wokeness, etc,etc. Oh and not to forget anti Israel/USA/Britain.... The only person they'd accept as a monarch is Queen Meghan and they'd happily see Owen Jones thrown from the rooftops. Those contradictions aside they're doomed I tell you doomed! Sedgefield, Dartford,Totnes, Copeland, Conwy, Walsall, Mansfield, Yarmouth and even Hastings don't want to know.

The left's core vote is those of working age on state benefits and who work for the public sector and they build from there

Quite obviously nonsense unless you think that university graduates fit that stereotype.

The Tories lead with most voters of working age now, the average age you are more likely to vote Tory than Labour being 39 at the last general election.

Plus the Tories actually led with university graduates over 55 on December 12th anyway 45% to 24% and if you deduct graduates who work for the public sector from the total, the Tories may even lead with graduates working for the private sector anyway, so my point stands absolutely

https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2019-election

DavidL

ydoethur said:

DavidL said:

ydoethur said:

OldKingCole said:

ydoethur said:

OldKingCole said:

I've always thought Starmer would be an excellent No 2 to someone a bit/lot more flamboyant.

A possible problem for Boris, incidentally, is that he hasn't got such a No 2.

Boris has plenty of number twos around him.

He just doesn’t have a capable deputy.

It's a bit late to be demob happy isn't it? Don't you start again next week?

Why did you have to remind me?!!!!

I hope that things have calmed down a bit with the break etc. You were hinting that a parting of the ways was on the cards near the end of term.

Well, I will find out next week. Hopefully everything will be less intense. But there is a very real risk that this will end up in the courts, in which case I won’t be wanting to stay.

I hope that it turns out well. Court rarely makes anything better.

Gallowgate

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

felix said:

Curse of thenew thread: What the Liberal left simply do not get is that most people are either not poor at all or do not wish to be made poor by paying extra taxes for those who they perceive to be shirkers. It doesn't really matter whether they are correct or not in that belief. People are happy with a safety net but not when it appears to encompass folk who they say as lazy or feckless. The language of the left is wholly focussed around food banks/bedroom taxes/minorities/wokeness, etc,etc. Oh and not to forget anti Israel/USA/Britain.... The only person they'd accept as a monarch is Queen Meghan and they'd happily see Owen Jones thrown from the rooftops. Those contradictions aside they're doomed I tell you doomed! Sedgefield, Dartford,Totnes, Copeland, Conwy, Walsall, Mansfield, Yarmouth and even Hastings don't want to know.

The left's core vote is those of working age on state benefits and who work for the public sector and they build from there

Quite obviously nonsense unless you think that university graduates fit that stereotype.

The Tories lead with most voters of working age now, the average age you are more likely to vote Tory than Labour being 39 at the last general election.

Plus the Tories actually led with university graduates over 65 on December 12th anyway and if you deduct graduates who work for the public sector from the total, the Tories may even lead with graduates working for the private sector anyway, so my point stands absolutely

You’re really scraping the barrel there mate.

eek

MikeSmithson said:

isam said:

I had Starmer as a big loser, RLB slightly better and Rayner, Thornberry, and a few non runners as big winners, but I closed them all out for a loss on the news that Rayner isn't running.

Non betting glasses on, they have to pick a woman. There is no charismatic man on their books, and Starmer is too stiff to beat Boris. Jess Phillips would be best I reckon, faux working class cabaret act notwithstanding

I think you are underestimating him. He has had to have operated like he has because of the shadow of team Milne/Corbyn. If he becomes his own man he'll be a totally different proposition.

While that's true - I do think Jess Philips would be equally difficult for Boris to deal with and a better contrast.

What the Labour party needs to do is hide it's left wing tendencies otherwise it will be destroyed.

Stocky

isam said:

I had Starmer as a big loser, RLB slightly better and Rayner, Thornberry, and a few non runners as big winners, but I closed them all out for a loss on the news that Rayner isn't running.

Non betting glasses on, they have to pick a woman. There is no charismatic man on their books, and Starmer is too stiff to beat Boris. Jess Phillips would be best I reckon, faux working class cabaret act notwithstanding

Phillips: lacks the intellect, has no gravitas, is too young, has never been in the shadow cabinet. In summary, she is not qualified - and she reminds me of a school dinner-lady.

If the Labour Party has come to this God help them.

DavidL

MikeSmithson said:

isam said:

I had Starmer as a big loser, RLB slightly better and Rayner, Thornberry, and a few non runners as big winners, but I closed them all out for a loss on the news that Rayner isn't running.

Non betting glasses on, they have to pick a woman. There is no charismatic man on their books, and Starmer is too stiff to beat Boris. Jess Phillips would be best I reckon, faux working class cabaret act notwithstanding

I think you are underestimating him. He has had to have operated like he has because of the shadow of team Milne/Corbyn. If he becomes his own man he'll be a totally different proposition.

Do you think that he will discover wit or the ability to be succinct?

squareroot2

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

I think that Johnson would find Starmer quite a tough proposition. While he's been in the shadow of Corbyn he has been very much curtailed but as leader he would be fairly ruthless

Starmer is more moderate than Corbyn but has a complete absence of charisma.

The candidate the Tories would fear most is Jess Phillips who is both centrist and charismatic (and from the Midlands while Starmer is from London) and she also tends to poll best in the few surveys of the public we have had too

not trying to get the worst candidate to win are you

kle4

Morris_Dancer said:

Meanwhile, in 'papers, please' news:
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/dec/26/edinburgh-residents-restrictions-hogmanay

Not sure that game was to be taken as an instruction manual!

kle4

DavidL said:

MikeSmithson said:

isam said:

I had Starmer as a big loser, RLB slightly better and Rayner, Thornberry, and a few non runners as big winners, but I closed them all out for a loss on the news that Rayner isn't running.

Non betting glasses on, they have to pick a woman. There is no charismatic man on their books, and Starmer is too stiff to beat Boris. Jess Phillips would be best I reckon, faux working class cabaret act notwithstanding

I think you are underestimating him. He has had to have operated like he has because of the shadow of team Milne/Corbyn. If he becomes his own man he'll be a totally different proposition.

Do you think that he will discover wit or the ability to be succinct?

The latter is hardly necessary. As for wit or charisma I dont know, but Starmer has always come across as at least having some substance behind him to my eyes.

Barnesian

OldKingCole said:

DavidL said:

OldKingCole said:

DavidL said:

MikeSmithson said:

I think that Johnson would find Starmer quite a tough proposition. While he's been in the shadow of Corbyn he has been very much curtailed but as leader he would be fairly ruthless

There is no doubt that he would be a significant improvement on Corbyn but frankly that should not be the bar. I find him dull, slightly pompous and overly sure of himself. A typical lawyer really.

I would pay good money to see Johnson subject to forensic questioning from which he could not escape by bluster.

You are still underestimating him. Blustering through PMQs is a piece of cake. Appearing before the committee chairs is starting to look more challenging.

Point taken. Which is why he avoided it before the election.

Will the Committees survive under Johnson?

kle4

eek said:

MikeSmithson said:

isam said:

I had Starmer as a big loser, RLB slightly better and Rayner, Thornberry, and a few non runners as big winners, but I closed them all out for a loss on the news that Rayner isn't running.

Non betting glasses on, they have to pick a woman. There is no charismatic man on their books, and Starmer is too stiff to beat Boris. Jess Phillips would be best I reckon, faux working class cabaret act notwithstanding

I think you are underestimating him. He has had to have operated like he has because of the shadow of team Milne/Corbyn. If he becomes his own man he'll be a totally different proposition.

While that's true - I do think Jess Philips would be equally difficult for Boris to deal with and a better contrast.

What the Labour party needs to do is hide it's left wing tendencies otherwise it will be destroyed.

Shed be much more likely to sink to his level. Question is would that work - possibly, although it could be like trying to out Trump Trump, dont play the game his way.

Luckyguy1983

OldKingCole said:

alex_ said:

OldKingCole said:

TGOHF666 said:

malcolmg said:

OldKingCole said:

I've always thought Starmer would be an excellent No 2 to someone a bit/lot more flamboyant.

A possible problem for Boris, incidentally, is that he hasn't got such a No 2.

He does have the poisonous odious creepy sleazeball Gove

Gove sticks up for Scottish fishermen - the SNP should applaud this.

I always get the impression that we are not told the whole story, in one place, about the EU and the UK fishing industry.
Too many soundbites and one-liners.

The U.K. fishing industry made money selling off its fleet and quotas to the EU and now want them back for nothing?

I have the impression that a few already quite well off people got much richer by, effectively, shafting those at the bottom and got away with it by blaming the big boy who ran away.

Fishy goings on.

HYUFD

squareroot2 said:

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

I think that Johnson would find Starmer quite a tough proposition. While he's been in the shadow of Corbyn he has been very much curtailed but as leader he would be fairly ruthless

Starmer is more moderate than Corbyn but has a complete absence of charisma.

The candidate the Tories would fear most is Jess Phillips who is both centrist and charismatic (and from the Midlands while Starmer is from London) and she also tends to poll best in the few surveys of the public we have had too

not trying to get the worst candidate to win are you

No, the only candidate Tories I have spoken to have any concern about is Jess Phillips

houndtang

Starmer doesn't seem a particularly voter friendly option either. Robotic and the epitome of the liberal elite so heavily rejected in the election.

ydoethur

DavidL said:

ydoethur said:

DavidL said:

ydoethur said:

OldKingCole said:

ydoethur said:

OldKingCole said:

I've always thought Starmer would be an excellent No 2 to someone a bit/lot more flamboyant.

A possible problem for Boris, incidentally, is that he hasn't got such a No 2.

Boris has plenty of number twos around him.

He just doesn’t have a capable deputy.

It's a bit late to be demob happy isn't it? Don't you start again next week?

Why did you have to remind me?!!!!

I hope that things have calmed down a bit with the break etc. You were hinting that a parting of the ways was on the cards near the end of term.

Well, I will find out next week. Hopefully everything will be less intense. But there is a very real risk that this will end up in the courts, in which case I won’t be wanting to stay.

I hope that it turns out well. Court rarely makes anything better.

That’s why I don’t want it to happen.

ydoethur

houndtang said:

Starmer doesn't seem a particularly voter friendly option either. Robotic and the epitome of the liberal elite so heavily rejected in the election.

None of them are. That’s the problem. There is no obvious stand out candidate as there was in 1992 or 1994. And come to think of it, there has not been in a contested election since 1994. It has been a constant stream of mediocrity.

malcolmg

TGOHF666 said:

malcolmg said:

OldKingCole said:

I've always thought Starmer would be an excellent No 2 to someone a bit/lot more flamboyant.

A possible problem for Boris, incidentally, is that he hasn't got such a No 2.

He does have the poisonous odious creepy sleazeball Gove

Gove sticks up for Scottish fishermen - the SNP should applaud this.

Yes he has done lots for them , I see them prospering. Have you been reading Brigadoon.

Fysics_Teacher

HYUFD said:

squareroot2 said:

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

I think that Johnson would find Starmer quite a tough proposition. While he's been in the shadow of Corbyn he has been very much curtailed but as leader he would be fairly ruthless

Starmer is more moderate than Corbyn but has a complete absence of charisma.

The candidate the Tories would fear most is Jess Phillips who is both centrist and charismatic (and from the Midlands while Starmer is from London) and she also tends to poll best in the few surveys of the public we have had too

not trying to get the worst candidate to win are you

No, the only candidate Tories I have spoken to have any concern about is Jess Phillips

She would be better than Jeremy anyway, and there are Labour MPs for whom that cannot be said.

HYUFD

Fysics_Teacher said:

HYUFD said:

squareroot2 said:

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

I think that Johnson would find Starmer quite a tough proposition. While he's been in the shadow of Corbyn he has been very much curtailed but as leader he would be fairly ruthless

Starmer is more moderate than Corbyn but has a complete absence of charisma.

The candidate the Tories would fear most is Jess Phillips who is both centrist and charismatic (and from the Midlands while Starmer is from London) and she also tends to poll best in the few surveys of the public we have had too

not trying to get the worst candidate to win are you

No, the only candidate Tories I have spoken to have any concern about is Jess Phillips

She would be better than Jeremy anyway, and there are Labour MPs for whom that cannot be said.

Polling suggests that

https://twitter.com/jantalipinski/status/1207060984235483137?s=20

https://twitter.com/BenKentish/status/1209431938131513344?s=20

MaxPB

DavidL said:

OldKingCole said:

DavidL said:

MikeSmithson said:

I think that Johnson would find Starmer quite a tough proposition. While he's been in the shadow of Corbyn he has been very much curtailed but as leader he would be fairly ruthless

There is no doubt that he would be a significant improvement on Corbyn but frankly that should not be the bar. I find him dull, slightly pompous and overly sure of himself. A typical lawyer really.

I would pay good money to see Johnson subject to forensic questioning from which he could not escape by bluster.

You are still underestimating him. Blustering through PMQs is a piece of cake. Appearing before the committee chairs is starting to look more challenging.

Nah, the select committees become a lot less important now that there's a majority. We can simply ignore anything and everything they say.

Fysics_Teacher

ydoethur said:

houndtang said:

Starmer doesn't seem a particularly voter friendly option either. Robotic and the epitome of the liberal elite so heavily rejected in the election.

None of them are. That’s the problem. There is no obvious stand out candidate as there was in 1992 or 1994. And come to think of it, there has not been in a contested election since 1994. It has been a constant stream of mediocrity.

David Milliband?

malcolmg

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

felix said:

Curse of thenew thread: What the Liberal left simply do not get is that most people are either not poor at all or do not wish to be made poor by paying extra taxes for those who they perceive to be shirkers. It doesn't really matter whether they are correct or not in that belief. People are happy with a safety net but not when it appears to encompass folk who they say as lazy or feckless. The language of the left is wholly focussed around food banks/bedroom taxes/minorities/wokeness, etc,etc. Oh and not to forget anti Israel/USA/Britain.... The only person they'd accept as a monarch is Queen Meghan and they'd happily see Owen Jones thrown from the rooftops. Those contradictions aside they're doomed I tell you doomed! Sedgefield, Dartford,Totnes, Copeland, Conwy, Walsall, Mansfield, Yarmouth and even Hastings don't want to know.

The left's core vote is those of working age on state benefits and who work for the public sector and they build from there

Quite obviously nonsense unless you think that university graduates fit that stereotype.

The Tories lead with most voters of working age now, the average age you are more likely to vote Tory than Labour being 39 at the last general election.

Plus the Tories actually led with university graduates over 65 on December 12th anyway and if you deduct graduates who work for the public sector from the total, the Tories may even lead with graduates working for the private sector anyway, so my point stands absolutely

You’re really scraping the barrel there mate.

Has been through the barrel a long time ago , nearing Australia now.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. kle4, "Comrade, you want 7 people to have access to your own home. Please report to prison immediately."

algarkirk

HYUFD said:

felix said:

Curse of thenew thread: What the Liberal left simply do not get is that most people are either not poor at all or do not wish to be made poor by paying extra taxes for those who they perceive to be shirkers. It doesn't really matter whether they are correct or not in that belief. People are happy with a safety net but not when it appears to encompass folk who they say as lazy or feckless. The language of the left is wholly focussed around food banks/bedroom taxes/minorities/wokeness, etc,etc. Oh and not to forget anti Israel/USA/Britain.... The only person they'd accept as a monarch is Queen Meghan and they'd happily see Owen Jones thrown from the rooftops. Those contradictions aside they're doomed I tell you doomed! Sedgefield, Dartford,Totnes, Copeland, Conwy, Walsall, Mansfield, Yarmouth and even Hastings don't want to know.

The left's core vote is those of working age on state benefits and who work for the public sector and they build from there

Thankfully these groups, while having plenty of time to drone on, don't have the numbers. The workers will, until Labour gets the message, continue to make time during the long working day to turn up and vote Tory. Labour show no sign whatsoever of understanding the difference between the benefits and state payroll vote and the vote of the non whinging working class. Thornberry's notorious tweet was only a symbol, with maybe little direct effect as most people are too busy to follow, but the underlying truth it revealed is worth millions of votes.

Fysics_Teacher

HYUFD said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

HYUFD said:

squareroot2 said:

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

I think that Johnson would find Starmer quite a tough proposition. While he's been in the shadow of Corbyn he has been very much curtailed but as leader he would be fairly ruthless

Starmer is more moderate than Corbyn but has a complete absence of charisma.

The candidate the Tories would fear most is Jess Phillips who is both centrist and charismatic (and from the Midlands while Starmer is from London) and she also tends to poll best in the few surveys of the public we have had too

not trying to get the worst candidate to win are you

No, the only candidate Tories I have spoken to have any concern about is Jess Phillips

She would be better than Jeremy anyway, and there are Labour MPs for whom that cannot be said.

Polling suggests that

https://twitter.com/jantalipinski/status/1207060984235483137?s=20

https://twitter.com/BenKentish/status/1209431938131513344?s=20

Richard Burgon?! Those 1% must be Tory voters. He would actually be worse than Jeremy Corby.

algarkirk

HYUFD said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

HYUFD said:

squareroot2 said:

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

I think that Johnson would find Starmer quite a tough proposition. While he's been in the shadow of Corbyn he has been very much curtailed but as leader he would be fairly ruthless

Starmer is more moderate than Corbyn but has a complete absence of charisma.

The candidate the Tories would fear most is Jess Phillips who is both centrist and charismatic (and from the Midlands while Starmer is from London) and she also tends to poll best in the few surveys of the public we have had too

not trying to get the worst candidate to win are you

No, the only candidate Tories I have spoken to have any concern about is Jess Phillips

She would be better than Jeremy anyway, and there are Labour MPs for whom that cannot be said.

Polling suggests that

https://twitter.com/jantalipinski/status/1207060984235483137?s=20

https://twitter.com/BenKentish/status/1209431938131513344?s=20

1% of voters back Burgon? How on earth did it get to such a stratospheric and gigantic figure?

malcolmg

OldKingCole said:

alex_ said:

OldKingCole said:

TGOHF666 said:

malcolmg said:

OldKingCole said:

I've always thought Starmer would be an excellent No 2 to someone a bit/lot more flamboyant.

A possible problem for Boris, incidentally, is that he hasn't got such a No 2.

He does have the poisonous odious creepy sleazeball Gove

Gove sticks up for Scottish fishermen - the SNP should applaud this.

I always get the impression that we are not told the whole story, in one place, about the EU and the UK fishing industry.
Too many soundbites and one-liners.

The U.K. fishing industry made money selling off its fleet and quotas to the EU and now want them back for nothing?

I have the impression that a few already quite well off people got much richer by, effectively, shafting those at the bottom and got away with it by blaming the big boy who ran away.

Yes Tories did well out of it for sure. Gove supports the handful of Tory millionaires who use only foreign workers etc and line their own pockets.

isam

.

MikeSmithson said:

isam said:

I had Starmer as a big loser, RLB slightly better and Rayner, Thornberry, and a few non runners as big winners, but I closed them all out for a loss on the news that Rayner isn't running.

Non betting glasses on, they have to pick a woman. There is no charismatic man on their books, and Starmer is too stiff to beat Boris. Jess Phillips would be best I reckon, faux working class cabaret act notwithstanding

I think you are underestimating him. He has had to have operated like he has because of the shadow of team Milne/Corbyn. If he becomes his own man he'll be a totally different proposition.

I've still got Chuka at a 2.5k winner, any inside on whether he's going to switch again again again?

ydoethur

Fysics_Teacher said:

ydoethur said:

houndtang said:

Starmer doesn't seem a particularly voter friendly option either. Robotic and the epitome of the liberal elite so heavily rejected in the election.

None of them are. That’s the problem. There is no obvious stand out candidate as there was in 1992 or 1994. And come to think of it, there has not been in a contested election since 1994. It has been a constant stream of mediocrity.

David Milliband?

He wasn’t the standout candidate. That is ultimately why he lost. D. Miliband was a slightly better looking version of Starmer or Burnham. But he had no original ideas, no energy and no way of communicating with people he wanted to inspire.

Ed Miliband was not a great leader of Labour (admittedly, he looks like a fucking colossus next to Corbyn). But he was a better leader than his brother would have been.

ydoethur

Fysics_Teacher said:

HYUFD said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

HYUFD said:

squareroot2 said:

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

I think that Johnson would find Starmer quite a tough proposition. While he's been in the shadow of Corbyn he has been very much curtailed but as leader he would be fairly ruthless

Starmer is more moderate than Corbyn but has a complete absence of charisma.

The candidate the Tories would fear most is Jess Phillips who is both centrist and charismatic (and from the Midlands while Starmer is from London) and she also tends to poll best in the few surveys of the public we have had too

not trying to get the worst candidate to win are you

No, the only candidate Tories I have spoken to have any concern about is Jess Phillips

She would be better than Jeremy anyway, and there are Labour MPs for whom that cannot be said.

Polling suggests that

https://twitter.com/jantalipinski/status/1207060984235483137?s=20

https://twitter.com/BenKentish/status/1209431938131513344?s=20

Richard Burgon?! Those 1% must be Tory voters. He would actually be worse than Jeremy Corby.

Or Liberal Democrats aiming for the role of premier Opposition party?

algarkirk

MaxPB said:

DavidL said:

OldKingCole said:

DavidL said:

MikeSmithson said:

I think that Johnson would find Starmer quite a tough proposition. While he's been in the shadow of Corbyn he has been very much curtailed but as leader he would be fairly ruthless

There is no doubt that he would be a significant improvement on Corbyn but frankly that should not be the bar. I find him dull, slightly pompous and overly sure of himself. A typical lawyer really.

I would pay good money to see Johnson subject to forensic questioning from which he could not escape by bluster.

You are still underestimating him. Blustering through PMQs is a piece of cake. Appearing before the committee chairs is starting to look more challenging.

Nah, the select committees become a lot less important now that there's a majority. We can simply ignore anything and everything they say.

PMs are never obliged to subject themselves to real forensic questioning. Select committees would need standing counsel to perform such a function. The real thing is horrendous. But they may want to add Emily Maitlis to Andrew Neil as a very capable person to avoid except at Spectator parties.

SouthamObserver

The NEC cannot change the rules for the leadership election. Only conference can do that. The NEC will set the timetable and decide on how much registered supporters have to pay to get a vote.

rkrkrk

There's no way of knowing which Labour leader will do well. We can all rationalise our choices.

In any case, the choice made now doesnt actually matter that much. What's important is being able to ditch a leader who isn't cutting through. Emily Thornberry seems to be the only candidate making that case though.

FF43

MaxPB said:

DavidL said:

OldKingCole said:

DavidL said:

MikeSmithson said:

I think that Johnson would find Starmer quite a tough proposition. While he's been in the shadow of Corbyn he has been very much curtailed but as leader he would be fairly ruthless

There is no doubt that he would be a significant improvement on Corbyn but frankly that should not be the bar. I find him dull, slightly pompous and overly sure of himself. A typical lawyer really.

I would pay good money to see Johnson subject to forensic questioning from which he could not escape by bluster.

You are still underestimating him. Blustering through PMQs is a piece of cake. Appearing before the committee chairs is starting to look more challenging.

Nah, the select committees become a lot less important now that there's a majority. We can simply ignore anything and everything they say.

Of course Johnson will ignore all accountability. Yet his supporters get outraged when he is called for the despot he is.

TOPPING

isam said:

.

MikeSmithson said:

isam said:

I had Starmer as a big loser, RLB slightly better and Rayner, Thornberry, and a few non runners as big winners, but I closed them all out for a loss on the news that Rayner isn't running.

Non betting glasses on, they have to pick a woman. There is no charismatic man on their books, and Starmer is too stiff to beat Boris. Jess Phillips would be best I reckon, faux working class cabaret act notwithstanding

I think you are underestimating him. He has had to have operated like he has because of the shadow of team Milne/Corbyn. If he becomes his own man he'll be a totally different proposition.

I've still got Chuka at a 2.5k winner, any inside on whether he's going to switch again again again?

The only proper working class candidate of them all.

kle4

FF43 said:

MaxPB said:

DavidL said:

OldKingCole said:

DavidL said:

MikeSmithson said:

I think that Johnson would find Starmer quite a tough proposition. While he's been in the shadow of Corbyn he has been very much curtailed but as leader he would be fairly ruthless

There is no doubt that he would be a significant improvement on Corbyn but frankly that should not be the bar. I find him dull, slightly pompous and overly sure of himself. A typical lawyer really.

I would pay good money to see Johnson subject to forensic questioning from which he could not escape by bluster.

You are still underestimating him. Blustering through PMQs is a piece of cake. Appearing before the committee chairs is starting to look more challenging.

Nah, the select committees become a lot less important now that there's a majority. We can simply ignore anything and everything they say.

Of course Johnson will ignore all accountability. Yet his supporters get outraged when he is called for the despot he is.

I dont support him but he's not a despot even though he will seek to ignore as much accountabilty as he can. There are genuine despots out there, it might make you feel better to call him one but it's not helpful.

TOPPING

The question is how long a project will the Lab recovery be. To get wet Tories Starmer is the best bet. To get a different flavour of the same thing but detoxified then it's Phillips but I don't think you could call her centrist.

A lot depends on what prominence the ERG occupies in the new administration.

isam

TOPPING said:

isam said:

.

MikeSmithson said:

isam said:

I had Starmer as a big loser, RLB slightly better and Rayner, Thornberry, and a few non runners as big winners, but I closed them all out for a loss on the news that Rayner isn't running.

Non betting glasses on, they have to pick a woman. There is no charismatic man on their books, and Starmer is too stiff to beat Boris. Jess Phillips would be best I reckon, faux working class cabaret act notwithstanding

I think you are underestimating him. He has had to have operated like he has because of the shadow of team Milne/Corbyn. If he becomes his own man he'll be a totally different proposition.

I've still got Chuka at a 2.5k winner, any inside on whether he's going to switch again again again?

The only proper working class candidate of them all.

Hmmm

"Umunna's mother, Patricia Milmo, a solicitor, is of English-Irish background. Umunna's maternal grandparents were Joan Frances (Morley) and Sir Helenus Milmo QC, a High Court judge."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chuka_Umunna

TGOHF666

malcolmg said:

TGOHF666 said:

malcolmg said:

OldKingCole said:

I've always thought Starmer would be an excellent No 2 to someone a bit/lot more flamboyant.

A possible problem for Boris, incidentally, is that he hasn't got such a No 2.

He does have the poisonous odious creepy sleazeball Gove

Gove sticks up for Scottish fishermen - the SNP should applaud this.

Yes he has done lots for them , I see them prospering. Have you been reading Brigadoon.

I’m sure if the SNP want some pointers to help turn around the dire state of Scottish education then Mr Gove did a fantastic job whilst at the DOE and could give the SNP some much needed guidance.

SouthamObserver

isam said:

I had Starmer as a big loser, RLB slightly better and Rayner, Thornberry, and a few non runners as big winners, but I closed them all out for a loss on the news that Rayner isn't running.

Non betting glasses on, they have to pick a woman. There is no charismatic man on their books, and Starmer is too stiff to beat Boris. Jess Phillips would be best I reckon, faux working class cabaret act notwithstanding

Whoever ran against Johnson today would lose. But the next election will be in 2023/24. What Labour needs is someone who can hold Johnson to account in the Commons, take advantage of Tory slip-ups and not frighten potential LibDem voters. I think there are several candidates who have the potential to do that (Starmer, Nandy, Phillips, Thornberry) and some who definitely couldn’t (Long Bailey, Lavery, Lewis).