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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In Scotland all the polls in the entire 2017-2019 parliament understated the SNP

One of the features of this month’s general election that hasn’t received much attention is how successful the SNP were in the 59 Scottish sets.

Read the full story here

MarqueeMark

With only six seats left to defend in Scotland, Boris cnn continue with his hardline no-further-referendum defence of the union - knowing it keeps those Scots with a grievance lined up behind the SNP and thereby kills Scottish Labour revival hopes stone dead.

For the next five years, the dismantling of the Red Wall is the only political project - whilst the Yellow Brick Road remains a simple fantasy.

SunnyJim

I'd like to see the Scots achieve independence before the next GE.

Perhaps enrage them for a year or two then give them a referendum in year 3 of the next parliament.

MarqueeMark

Long Bailey to champion "progresive patriotism".

Me neither.

Paoli

The problem with the Scottish regional polling was even worse with the constituency specific polling. Of the 47 seat specific polls on the Wikipedia opinion poll webpage, 12 got the winner completely wrong (including, for example, all three polls in Putney). Particularly poor were the eight LibDem/Survation polls which were published, which wrongly predicted the outcome in Cambridge, South Cambs, SE Cambs, Finchley & Golders Green and Portsmouth South. Many included vote shares which were dramatically outside the relevant margins of error.

These seat-specific polls often generated a great deal of press coverage. No doubt they influenced some tactical voting by voters as well as targeting etc. by the parties. In general, they overstated LibDem/Ind support and understated both Con and Lab support. For example, the three polls in Kensington showed a Con/Lab lead of 4% and 10% and a Con/LD lead of just 3%. As we know, it was effectively a Con/Lab dead heat on the night, with the LD a distant third place.

Has anyone analysed the final YouGov MRP study by seat, against the outcome?

rcs1000

Paoli said:

The problem with the Scottish regional polling was even worse with the constituency specific polling. Of the 47 seat specific polls on the Wikipedia opinion poll webpage, 12 got the winner completely wrong (including, for example, all three polls in Putney). Particularly poor were the eight LibDem/Survation polls which were published, which wrongly predicted the outcome in Cambridge, South Cambs, SE Cambs, Finchley & Golders Green and Portsmouth South. Many included vote shares which were dramatically outside the relevant margins of error.

These seat-specific polls often generated a great deal of press coverage. No doubt they influenced some tactical voting by voters as well as targeting etc. by the parties. In general, they overstated LibDem/Ind support and understated both Con and Lab support. For example, the three polls in Kensington showed a Con/Lab lead of 4% and 10% and a Con/LD lead of just 3%. As we know, it was effectively a Con/Lab dead heat on the night, with the LD a distant third place.

Has anyone analysed the final YouGov MRP study by seat, against the outcome?

Although it is worth remembering that the libdems lost 40% of their vote over the course of the campaign.

felix

I think constituency polls are generally pretty poor - there are all sorts of sampling problems and they seem very poor value for money. Local election results are also a poor guide. I suspect the Labour collapse in Scotland was responsible for most of the Tory losses as well as their own. Their seems no sign whatsoever that Labour are even remotely near understanding the scale of their problems there or anywhere else in the UK. The leading candidates to replace JC show zero sign of understanding the beliefs and concerns of a sufficient core of potential voters - because they will not sacrifice any of the sacred cows of the vote base they are left with.

OldKingCole

MarqueeMark said:

Long Bailey to champion "progresive patriotism".

Me neither.

Quite like the idea, personally. Suspect politics in 2030 will look very, very different to those of now.

And Good Morning all.

Nigelb

SunnyJim said:

I'd like to see the Scots achieve independence before the next GE.

Perhaps enrage them for a year or two then give them a referendum in year 3 of the next parliament.

Is that Boris’ one nation Toryism ?

Paoli

rcs1000 said:

Paoli said:

The problem with the Scottish regional polling was even worse with the constituency specific polling. Of the 47 seat specific polls on the Wikipedia opinion poll webpage, 12 got the winner completely wrong (including, for example, all three polls in Putney). Particularly poor were the eight LibDem/Survation polls which were published, which wrongly predicted the outcome in Cambridge, South Cambs, SE Cambs, Finchley & Golders Green and Portsmouth South. Many included vote shares which were dramatically outside the relevant margins of error.

These seat-specific polls often generated a great deal of press coverage. No doubt they influenced some tactical voting by voters as well as targeting etc. by the parties. In general, they overstated LibDem/Ind support and understated both Con and Lab support. For example, the three polls in Kensington showed a Con/Lab lead of 4% and 10% and a Con/LD lead of just 3%. As we know, it was effectively a Con/Lab dead heat on the night, with the LD a distant third place.

Has anyone analysed the final YouGov MRP study by seat, against the outcome?

Although it is worth remembering that the libdems lost 40% of their vote over the course of the campaign.

SunnyJim

felix said:

The leading candidates to replace JC show zero sign of understanding the beliefs and concerns of a sufficient core of potential voters - because they will not sacrifice any of the sacred cows of the vote base they are left with.

The membership aren't ready to give up on the 'project' which is fair enough.

And their stubbornness may well bear fruit because at some point the country will be willing to give the hard left a go.

Unlikely to be the next GE but it could well be ready in 2029 and i'm sure Momentum won't make the same mistake as the core did in giving the Blairites the reigns in 94 just as the country was ready for pretty much any flavour of red.

SunnyJim

Nigelb said:

Is that Boris’ one nation Toryism ?

I would hope that Boris takes the view that the union is a living thing kept alive only by the consent of its constituent parts.

It seems to me that the case for IRef2 is a strong one and I would wish the Scots well if they decided to part company.

squareroot2

The SNP does NOT want independence. Its would destroy its USP>

Nigelb

SunnyJim said:

Nigelb said:

Is that Boris’ one nation Toryism ?

I would hope that Boris takes the view that the union is a living thing kept alive only by the consent of its constituent parts.

It seems to me that the case for IRef2 is a strong one and I would wish the Scots well if they decided to part company.

That is not unreasonable - but it is hardly the tenor of what you originally suggested.

Paoli

The LD trend may well be right, but even some of the 7 constituency polls with fieldwork in December were well off the mark (Chingford, Cities of London & Westminster, Finchley, Kensington, Putney (2) and Southport). The 2 final polls in Putney suggested a Tory win by 3% (Labour had a 9% majority) while the Kensington survey by Deltapoll had fieldwork to 8 December and still gave a Tory lead of 10%.

numbertwelve

SunnyJim said:

felix said:

The leading candidates to replace JC show zero sign of understanding the beliefs and concerns of a sufficient core of potential voters - because they will not sacrifice any of the sacred cows of the vote base they are left with.

The membership aren't ready to give up on the 'project' which is fair enough.

And their stubbornness may well bear fruit because at some point the country will be willing to give the hard left a go.

Unlikely to be the next GE but it could well be ready in 2029 and i'm sure Momentum won't make the same mistake as the core did in giving the Blairites the reigns in 94 just as the country was ready for pretty much any flavour of red.

I think it’s wrong to assume parties get into power purely because of the swing of the pendulum. If that was the case 2019 should have seen a better Labour result after 9 years of Tory government.

Clearly there is something in the “give the other side a go” mentality but to do so I think it’s wrong to suggest people will vote for any policy platform.

OldKingCole

squareroot2 said:

The SNP does NOT want independence. Its would destroy its USP>

Achieving it's stated aim must always be a problem for a Nationalist party. It may be Centre-Left, as the SNP general direction of travel seems to be, but after achieving it's primary aim, surely the variety of opinions of those who value independence above all is going to show.

numbertwelve

MarqueeMark said:

Long Bailey to champion "progresive patriotism".

Me neither.

I read the article and I’m afraid it strikes me as window dressing and one more heave. Better say I’m patriotic because that’s what those traditional voters like to hear. Talking about mill workers striking in one part of the country in support of Abraham Lincoln might be a commendable cause, but I’m not sure I subscribe to the notion that this is what many would jump to as an example of British patriotism.

squareroot2

progressive PATRIOTISM??? Labour has no clothes left, all that is left is to wrap themselves in the National flag. Ironic really when Corbyn loathes his own country.... Which flag will it be ..

LucyMorales

Presumably the SNP may one day consider standing candidates in the rUK. If they did it on a platform of having a referendum across the whole UK about Scottish independence they might well win, with lotsa English voters glad to see the back of them.

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

Ms. Morales, I suspect not as the General Election concern is who governs the country. What's the SNP policy beyond splitting it up? How do they want to change education in England, for example?

ydoethur

numbertwelve said:

MarqueeMark said:

Long Bailey to champion "progresive patriotism".

Me neither.

I read the article and I’m afraid it strikes me as window dressing and one more heave. Better say I’m patriotic because that’s what those traditional voters like to hear. Talking about mill workers striking in one part of the country in support of Abraham Lincoln might be a commendable cause, but I’m not sure I subscribe to the notion that this is what many would jump to as an example of British patriotism.

https://youtu.be/WOyIJVUaoeg

squareroot2

LucyMorales said:

Presumably the SNP may one day consider standing candidates in the rUK. If they did it on a platform of having a referendum across the whole UK about Scottish independence they might well win, with lotsa English voters glad to see the back of them.

Have you been at the magic mushrooms?

TheScreamingEagles

Light the beacons of Gondor, PB/Vanilla is working properly on my phone.

LucyMorales

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Ms. Morales, I suspect not as the General Election concern is who governs the country. What's the SNP policy beyond splitting it up? How do they want to change education in England, for example?

They just steal the policies of their nearest competitors, a la Brexit party.

LucyMorales

squareroot2 said:

LucyMorales said:

Presumably the SNP may one day consider standing candidates in the rUK. If they did it on a platform of having a referendum across the whole UK about Scottish independence they might well win, with lotsa English voters glad to see the back of them.

Have you been at the magic mushrooms?

I get my best ideas after a light breakfast of the ‘shrooms.

kle4

SunnyJim said:

I'd like to see the Scots achieve independence before the next GE.

Perhaps enrage them for a year or two then give them a referendum in year 3 of the next parliament.

Given experience of negotiating exit arrangements especially when one party is reluctant I'm not sure even if we has a ref next year theyd be fully out by 2024.

Nigelb

numbertwelve said:

SunnyJim said:

felix said:

The leading candidates to replace JC show zero sign of understanding the beliefs and concerns of a sufficient core of potential voters - because they will not sacrifice any of the sacred cows of the vote base they are left with.

The membership aren't ready to give up on the 'project' which is fair enough.

And their stubbornness may well bear fruit because at some point the country will be willing to give the hard left a go.

Unlikely to be the next GE but it could well be ready in 2029 and i'm sure Momentum won't make the same mistake as the core did in giving the Blairites the reigns in 94 just as the country was ready for pretty much any flavour of red.

I think it’s wrong to assume parties get into power purely because of the swing of the pendulum. If that was the case 2019 should have seen a better Labour result after 9 years of Tory government.

Clearly there is something in the “give the other side a go” mentality but to do so I think it’s wrong to suggest people will vote for any policy platform.

Though they might learn from Boris, and run on almost no policies at all ?

SouthamObserver

numbertwelve said:

MarqueeMark said:

Long Bailey to champion "progresive patriotism".

Me neither.

I read the article and I’m afraid it strikes me as window dressing and one more heave. Better say I’m patriotic because that’s what those traditional voters like to hear. Talking about mill workers striking in one part of the country in support of Abraham Lincoln might be a commendable cause, but I’m not sure I subscribe to the notion that this is what many would jump to as an example of British patriotism.

There was no mention of Scotland or Wales in the article. All the places she names are in England. It is the same comfort zone platitudes that see only victims, no aspiration, no wealth creation. Also missing any reference to either Jeremy Corbyn ir anti-Semitism.

kinabalu

Ah the site is working again! I can therefore resume my 20 a day habit. All will rejoice.

isam

felix said:

I think constituency polls are generally pretty poor - there are all sorts of sampling problems and they seem very poor value for money. Local election results are also a poor guide. I suspect the Labour collapse in Scotland was responsible for most of the Tory losses as well as their own. Their seems no sign whatsoever that Labour are even remotely near understanding the scale of their problems there or anywhere else in the UK. The leading candidates to replace JC show zero sign of understanding the beliefs and concerns of a sufficient core of potential voters - because they will not sacrifice any of the sacred cows of the vote base they are left with.

How accurate were the Survation constituency polls for the Lib Dems?

ydoethur

LucyMorales said:

squareroot2 said:

LucyMorales said:

Presumably the SNP may one day consider standing candidates in the rUK. If they did it on a platform of having a referendum across the whole UK about Scottish independence they might well win, with lotsa English voters glad to see the back of them.

Have you been at the magic mushrooms?

I get my best ideas after a light breakfast of the ‘shrooms.

Funny, I heard a bloke called Jez say that once as well.

kinabalu

MarqueeMark said:

Long Bailey to champion "progresive patriotism".

Me neither.

It is complete bollox.

No candidate for leader who mentions "patriotism" in anything but a satirical way is getting my vote.

kle4

ydoethur said:

LucyMorales said:

squareroot2 said:

LucyMorales said:

Presumably the SNP may one day consider standing candidates in the rUK. If they did it on a platform of having a referendum across the whole UK about Scottish independence they might well win, with lotsa English voters glad to see the back of them.

Have you been at the magic mushrooms?

I get my best ideas after a light breakfast of the ‘shrooms.

Funny, I heard a bloke called Jez say that once as well.

Must be a different jez than I think as he got all his ideas on a gap year holiday in the 70s, stone cold sober, then never moved on.

MikeSmithson

isam said:

felix said:

I think constituency polls are generally pretty poor - there are all sorts of sampling problems and they seem very poor value for money. Local election results are also a poor guide. I suspect the Labour collapse in Scotland was responsible for most of the Tory losses as well as their own. Their seems no sign whatsoever that Labour are even remotely near understanding the scale of their problems there or anywhere else in the UK. The leading candidates to replace JC show zero sign of understanding the beliefs and concerns of a sufficient core of potential voters - because they will not sacrifice any of the sacred cows of the vote base they are left with.

How accurate were the Survation constituency polls for the Lib Dems?

Deltapoll did pretty well with their seat surveys for the Observer during the campaign.

kle4

kinabalu said:

MarqueeMark said:

Long Bailey to champion "progresive patriotism".

Me neither.

It is complete bollox.

No candidate for leader who mentions "patriotism" in anything but a satirical way is getting my vote.

I'd think patriotism is one of those things when you dont need to mention it to have it, and if you do mention it it can be a sign you're being superficial about it .

Like corbyn lying about watching the queens speech because he was presumably worried about being seen as unpatriotic, when many a patriotic person would just say they dont watch it.

isam

SouthamObserver said:

numbertwelve said:

MarqueeMark said:

Long Bailey to champion "progresive patriotism".

Me neither.

I read the article and I’m afraid it strikes me as window dressing and one more heave. Better say I’m patriotic because that’s what those traditional voters like to hear. Talking about mill workers striking in one part of the country in support of Abraham Lincoln might be a commendable cause, but I’m not sure I subscribe to the notion that this is what many would jump to as an example of British patriotism.

There was no mention of Scotland or Wales in the article. All the places she names are in England. It is the same comfort zone platitudes that see only victims, no aspiration, no wealth creation. Also missing any reference to either Jeremy Corbyn ir anti-Semitism.

If potential Labour leaders want to reconnect with the working classes in old mining towns, is The Guardian the best mouthpiece to be using? I guess the other papers will quote their piece in small articles, but I reckon the mention of the G word is an eye roll provoker to many people who used to vote Labour, but dont anymore

ydoethur

kle4 said:

ydoethur said:

LucyMorales said:

squareroot2 said:

LucyMorales said:

Presumably the SNP may one day consider standing candidates in the rUK. If they did it on a platform of having a referendum across the whole UK about Scottish independence they might well win, with lotsa English voters glad to see the back of them.

Have you been at the magic mushrooms?

I get my best ideas after a light breakfast of the ‘shrooms.

Funny, I heard a bloke called Jez say that once as well.

Must be a different jez than I think as he got all his ideas on a gap year holiday in the 70s, stone cold sober, then never moved on.

Gap year? Between what? I thought after failing his A-levels and being kicked out of a poly for being intellectually challenged he lived off his parents until he got in as a housing officer in Haringey and then an MP.

You don’t need a gap year for that.

MaxPB

isam said:

felix said:

I think constituency polls are generally pretty poor - there are all sorts of sampling problems and they seem very poor value for money. Local election results are also a poor guide. I suspect the Labour collapse in Scotland was responsible for most of the Tory losses as well as their own. Their seems no sign whatsoever that Labour are even remotely near understanding the scale of their problems there or anywhere else in the UK. The leading candidates to replace JC show zero sign of understanding the beliefs and concerns of a sufficient core of potential voters - because they will not sacrifice any of the sacred cows of the vote base they are left with.

How accurate were the Survation constituency polls for the Lib Dems?

Fairly accurate I think, a lot of people read them wrong though and looked at them as a direction of travel so expected them to win where it was close like Finchley and Golders Green or Cities of Westminster and London etc...

isam

kle4 said:

kinabalu said:

MarqueeMark said:

Long Bailey to champion "progresive patriotism".

Me neither.

It is complete bollox.

No candidate for leader who mentions "patriotism" in anything but a satirical way is getting my vote.

I'd think patriotism is one of those things when you dont need to mention it to have it, and if you do mention it it can be a sign you're being superficial about it .

Like corbyn lying about watching the queens speech because he was presumably worried about being seen as unpatriotic, when many a patriotic person would just say they dont watch it.

Inclined to agree. "progressive Patriotism" just sounds like pure political jargon... two words that seem to be at odds with each other insincerely plonked together

SouthamObserver

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

numbertwelve said:

MarqueeMark said:

Long Bailey to champion "progresive patriotism".

Me neither.

I read the article and I’m afraid it strikes me as window dressing and one more heave. Better say I’m patriotic because that’s what those traditional voters like to hear. Talking about mill workers striking in one part of the country in support of Abraham Lincoln might be a commendable cause, but I’m not sure I subscribe to the notion that this is what many would jump to as an example of British patriotism.

There was no mention of Scotland or Wales in the article. All the places she names are in England. It is the same comfort zone platitudes that see only victims, no aspiration, no wealth creation. Also missing any reference to either Jeremy Corbyn ir anti-Semitism.

If potential Labour leaders want to reconnect with the working classes in old mining towns, is The Guardian the best mouthpiece to be using? I guess the other papers will quote their piece in small articles, but I reckon the mention of the G word is an eye roll provoker to many people who used to vote Labour, but dont anymore

I am guessing the Guardian is the best place to connect with Labour members!

MarqueeMark

isam said:

felix said:

I think constituency polls are generally pretty poor - there are all sorts of sampling problems and they seem very poor value for money. Local election results are also a poor guide. I suspect the Labour collapse in Scotland was responsible for most of the Tory losses as well as their own. Their seems no sign whatsoever that Labour are even remotely near understanding the scale of their problems there or anywhere else in the UK. The leading candidates to replace JC show zero sign of understanding the beliefs and concerns of a sufficient core of potential voters - because they will not sacrifice any of the sacred cows of the vote base they are left with.

How accurate were the Survation constituency polls for the Lib Dems?

Presumably the ones the LibDems never released were most accurate.

They never released one for Totnes. Or maybe their canvass returns were as accurate as ours. (They showed the Conservative vote at 53.0%. It was actually 53.2% on the day - we got 1 person in 500 wrong. And that was on the upside. Although...there was that guy just outside Brixham, who said he'd never vote for the Tories whilst Boris was leader....he might have been pulling my leg....)

kle4

ydoethur said:

kle4 said:

ydoethur said:

LucyMorales said:

squareroot2 said:

LucyMorales said:

Presumably the SNP may one day consider standing candidates in the rUK. If they did it on a platform of having a referendum across the whole UK about Scottish independence they might well win, with lotsa English voters glad to see the back of them.

Have you been at the magic mushrooms?

I get my best ideas after a light breakfast of the ‘shrooms.

Funny, I heard a bloke called Jez say that once as well.

Must be a different jez than I think as he got all his ideas on a gap year holiday in the 70s, stone cold sober, then never moved on.

Gap year? Between what? I thought after failing his A-levels and being kicked out of a poly for being intellectually challenged he lived off his parents until he got in as a housing officer in Haringey and then an MP.

You don’t need a gap year for that.

Good point. When he was on a foreign excursion to the colonies.

ydoethur

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

numbertwelve said:

MarqueeMark said:

Long Bailey to champion "progresive patriotism".

Me neither.

I read the article and I’m afraid it strikes me as window dressing and one more heave. Better say I’m patriotic because that’s what those traditional voters like to hear. Talking about mill workers striking in one part of the country in support of Abraham Lincoln might be a commendable cause, but I’m not sure I subscribe to the notion that this is what many would jump to as an example of British patriotism.

There was no mention of Scotland or Wales in the article. All the places she names are in England. It is the same comfort zone platitudes that see only victims, no aspiration, no wealth creation. Also missing any reference to either Jeremy Corbyn ir anti-Semitism.

If potential Labour leaders want to reconnect with the working classes in old mining towns, is The Guardian the best mouthpiece to be using? I guess the other papers will quote their piece in small articles, but I reckon the mention of the G word is an eye roll provoker to many people who used to vote Labour, but dont anymore

Certainly I would have chosen the Mirror if that was the intended goal. If she wanted to be daring it would have been better to use the Sun or the Mail, given they have much wider circulation among those target groups.

But she’s not currently trying to reconnect with the voters. She’s trying to connect with the PLP so she gets 21 nominations. And for that the Grauniad is the best pulpit to preach from.

isam

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

numbertwelve said:

MarqueeMark said:

Long Bailey to champion "progresive patriotism".

Me neither.

I read the article and I’m afraid it strikes me as window dressing and one more heave. Better say I’m patriotic because that’s what those traditional voters like to hear. Talking about mill workers striking in one part of the country in support of Abraham Lincoln might be a commendable cause, but I’m not sure I subscribe to the notion that this is what many would jump to as an example of British patriotism.

There was no mention of Scotland or Wales in the article. All the places she names are in England. It is the same comfort zone platitudes that see only victims, no aspiration, no wealth creation. Also missing any reference to either Jeremy Corbyn ir anti-Semitism.

If potential Labour leaders want to reconnect with the working classes in old mining towns, is The Guardian the best mouthpiece to be using? I guess the other papers will quote their piece in small articles, but I reckon the mention of the G word is an eye roll provoker to many people who used to vote Labour, but dont anymore

I am guessing the Guardian is the best place to connect with Labour members!

Oh yeah!

Morris_Dancer

Mr. kle4, I'm so patriotic I watch the Queen's speech on Christmas Eve.

algarkirk

If RL-B runs a campaign as triangulated as today's farrago in the Guardian, and especially if Ian Lavery sustains his half promise to run as well then we should be in for a comedy treat.

The absence of understanding, insight, interest, relevance and punch in RL-B's article is striking.

As for 'progressive patriotism', this is going to get stuck in the cracks between three groups: those who think it is the last refuge of a scoundrel, our Momentum friends who think that it should only apply to North Korea and Cuba and that domestic patriotism is fascism dressed up, and actual people who are just normal untriangulated patriots and don't need to drone on about it. They will next vote Labour into office when Clement Attlee turns up.

ydoethur

algarkirk said:

If RL-B runs a campaign as triangulated as today's farrago in the Guardian, and especially if Ian Lavery sustains his half promise to run as well then we should be in for a comedy treat.

The absence of understanding, insight, interest, relevance and punch in RL-B's article is striking.

As for 'progressive patriotism', this is going to get stuck in the cracks between three groups: those who think it is the last refuge of a scoundrel, our Momentum friends who think that it should only apply to North Korea and Cuba and that domestic patriotism is fascism dressed up, and actual people who are just normal untriangulated patriots and don't need to drone on about it. They will next vote Labour into office when Clement Attlee turns up.

It would be funny if it weren’t for the lurking worry one of these FW190s might at some point become PM if they do become LOTO.

kinabalu

kle4 said:

I'd think patriotism is one of those things when you dont need to mention it to have it, and if you do mention it can because sign you're being superficial about it .

Like corbyn lying about watching the queens speech because he was presumably worried about being seen as unpatriotic, when many a patriotic person would just say they dont watch it.

I think it's a nonsense construct. People do not "love" their country. If they say they do it is either virtue signalling or it's a mislabeling of something else going on with their brain chemistry.

Charles

MarqueeMark said:

With only six seats left to defend in Scotland, Boris cnn continue with his hardline no-further-referendum defence of the union - knowing it keeps those Scots with a grievance lined up behind the SNP and thereby kills Scottish Labour revival hopes stone dead.

For the next five years, the dismantling of the Red Wall is the only political project - whilst the Yellow Brick Road remains a simple fantasy.

Nothing behind the curtain?

isam

algarkirk said:

If RL-B runs a campaign as triangulated as today's farrago in the Guardian, and especially if Ian Lavery sustains his half promise to run as well then we should be in for a comedy treat.

The absence of understanding, insight, interest, relevance and punch in RL-B's article is striking.

As for 'progressive patriotism', this is going to get stuck in the cracks between three groups: those who think it is the last refuge of a scoundrel, our Momentum friends who think that it should only apply to North Korea and Cuba and that domestic patriotism is fascism dressed up, and actual people who are just normal untriangulated patriots and don't need to drone on about it. They will next vote Labour into office when Clement Attlee turns up.

I understand it to mean "being proud to come from a nation as long as it is politically correct and multicultural", is that accurate?

MarqueeMark

Charles said:

MarqueeMark said:

With only six seats left to defend in Scotland, Boris cnn continue with his hardline no-further-referendum defence of the union - knowing it keeps those Scots with a grievance lined up behind the SNP and thereby kills Scottish Labour revival hopes stone dead.

For the next five years, the dismantling of the Red Wall is the only political project - whilst the Yellow Brick Road remains a simple fantasy.

Nothing behind the curtain?

Certainly no wizards....just bar charts.

"Only the LibDems can win Oz!"

Charles

Paoli said:

The problem with the Scottish regional polling was even worse with the constituency specific polling. Of the 47 seat specific polls on the Wikipedia opinion poll webpage, 12 got the winner completely wrong (including, for example, all three polls in Putney). Particularly poor were the eight LibDem/Survation polls which were published, which wrongly predicted the outcome in Cambridge, South Cambs, SE Cambs, Finchley & Golders Green and Portsmouth South. Many included vote shares which were dramatically outside the relevant margins of error.

These seat-specific polls often generated a great deal of press coverage. No doubt they influenced some tactical voting by voters as well as targeting etc. by the parties. In general, they overstated LibDem/Ind support and understated both Con and Lab support. For example, the three polls in Kensington showed a Con/Lab lead of 4% and 10% and a Con/LD lead of just 3%. As we know, it was effectively a Con/Lab dead heat on the night, with the LD a distant third place.

Has anyone analysed the final YouGov MRP study by seat, against the outcome?

We knew at the time that Survsation was replete with methodological weaknesses which tended to massively favour the LibDems

Which is why the LibDems commissioned and published them

Charles

squareroot2 said:

The SNP does NOT want independence. Its would destroy its USP>

In the way that reform in RSA destroyed the USP of the ANC?

kle4

kinabalu said:

kle4 said:

I'd think patriotism is one of those things when you dont need to mention it to have it, and if you do mention it can because sign you're being superficial about it .

Like corbyn lying about watching the queens speech because he was presumably worried about being seen as unpatriotic, when many a patriotic person would just say they dont watch it.

I think it's a nonsense construct. People do not "love" their country. If they say they do it is either virtue signalling or it's a mislabeling of something else going on with their brain chemistry.

It's real. Even if its nonsense it's real, the loyalty to and love of the tribe scaled up. Its even eclipsed religion in the last several centuries in some ways which is pretty impressive and unusual.

kinabalu

isam said:

Inclined to agree. "progressive Patriotism" just sounds like pure political jargon... two words that seem to be at odds with each other insincerely plonked together

Exactamundo. You can't be a progressive and "love" your country. It just does not scan.

Charles

I’m not a Kremlinologist, but shouldn’t Adonis have said “electable social democratic” party not “electable Democratic Socialist”?

I though the democratic socialists were East Germany, Albania etc while the social democrats are the Western European flavour of moderate lefties?

isam

isam said:

algarkirk said:

If RL-B runs a campaign as triangulated as today's farrago in the Guardian, and especially if Ian Lavery sustains his half promise to run as well then we should be in for a comedy treat.

The absence of understanding, insight, interest, relevance and punch in RL-B's article is striking.

As for 'progressive patriotism', this is going to get stuck in the cracks between three groups: those who think it is the last refuge of a scoundrel, our Momentum friends who think that it should only apply to North Korea and Cuba and that domestic patriotism is fascism dressed up, and actual people who are just normal untriangulated patriots and don't need to drone on about it. They will next vote Labour into office when Clement Attlee turns up.

I understand it to mean "being proud to come from a nation as long as it is politically correct and multicultural", is that accurate?

Or "I Love the Party", shades of 1984

ydoethur

Charles said:

I’m not a Kremlinologist, but shouldn’t Adonis have said “electable social democratic” party not “electable Democratic Socialist”?

I though the democratic socialists were East Germany, Albania etc while the social democrats are the Western European flavour of moderate lefties?

Corbyn also calls himself a Democratic Socialist.

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/08/jeremy-corbyn-labour-britain/401492/

algarkirk

isam said:

algarkirk said:

If RL-B runs a campaign as triangulated as today's farrago in the Guardian, and especially if Ian Lavery sustains his half promise to run as well then we should be in for a comedy treat.

The absence of understanding, insight, interest, relevance and punch in RL-B's article is striking.

As for 'progressive patriotism', this is going to get stuck in the cracks between three groups: those who think it is the last refuge of a scoundrel, our Momentum friends who think that it should only apply to North Korea and Cuba and that domestic patriotism is fascism dressed up, and actual people who are just normal untriangulated patriots and don't need to drone on about it. They will next vote Labour into office when Clement Attlee turns up.

I understand it to mean "being proud to come from a nation as long as it is politically correct and multicultural", is that accurate?

Perhaps, but maybe not even that. Its lurch to the left means that Labour's power brokers have lost touch with what working class communities mean by 'loyalty', 'patriotism etc'. A mirror of how the BNP and other fascist groupuscules have done the same.

A clue is in how the voters of, say, Hull East have managed to turn this Labour seat into a tight Lab/Con marginal. It isn't Brexit party or BNP snapping at Labour's heels, nor is it a far left alternative. It's the wicked old Tories. RL-B fails to explain either why Labour have failed nor why the wicked Tories succeed. The intellectual vacuum has not been filled. Corbyn and Pidcock in their nalyses have made the same error.

Charles

isam said:

kle4 said:

kinabalu said:

MarqueeMark said:

Long Bailey to champion "progresive patriotism".

Me neither.

It is complete bollox.

No candidate for leader who mentions "patriotism" in anything but a satirical way is getting my vote.

I'd think patriotism is one of those things when you dont need to mention it to have it, and if you do mention it it can be a sign you're being superficial about it .

Like corbyn lying about watching the queens speech because he was presumably worried about being seen as unpatriotic, when many a patriotic person would just say they dont watch it.

Inclined to agree. "progressive Patriotism" just sounds like pure political jargon... two words that seem to be at odds with each other insincerely plonked together

How about a Patriotic progressivism?

Charles

MarqueeMark said:

isam said:

felix said:

I think constituency polls are generally pretty poor - there are all sorts of sampling problems and they seem very poor value for money. Local election results are also a poor guide. I suspect the Labour collapse in Scotland was responsible for most of the Tory losses as well as their own. Their seems no sign whatsoever that Labour are even remotely near understanding the scale of their problems there or anywhere else in the UK. The leading candidates to replace JC show zero sign of understanding the beliefs and concerns of a sufficient core of potential voters - because they will not sacrifice any of the sacred cows of the vote base they are left with.

How accurate were the Survation constituency polls for the Lib Dems?

Presumably the ones the LibDems never released were most accurate.

They never released one for Totnes. Or maybe their canvass returns were as accurate as ours. (They showed the Conservative vote at 53.0%. It was actually 53.2% on the day - we got 1 person in 500 wrong. And that was on the upside. Although...there was that guy just outside Brixham, who said he'd never vote for the Tories whilst Boris was leader....he might have been pulling my leg....)

Back in the late 80s my father said he wouldn’t donate to the Tories while Thatcher was leader.

They called him 3 days after she resigned...

kinabalu

kle4 said:

It's real. Even if its nonsense it's real, the loyalty to and love of the tribe scaled up. Its even eclipsed religion in the last several centuries in some ways which is pretty impressive and unusual.

But it's nonsense from the viewpoint of a progressive. A progressive will - IMO correctly - view "love of country" as a mental aberration. Something to be treated rather than pandered to.

EDIT: By treated I mean argued against - not drugs and hospitals. Nobody in their right mind would advocate going that far.

Charles

kle4 said:

ydoethur said:

kle4 said:

ydoethur said:

LucyMorales said:

squareroot2 said:

LucyMorales said:

Presumably the SNP may one day consider standing candidates in the rUK. If they did it on a platform of having a referendum across the whole UK about Scottish independence they might well win, with lotsa English voters glad to see the back of them.

Have you been at the magic mushrooms?

I get my best ideas after a light breakfast of the ‘shrooms.

Funny, I heard a bloke called Jez say that once as well.

Must be a different jez than I think as he got all his ideas on a gap year holiday in the 70s, stone cold sober, then never moved on.

Gap year? Between what? I thought after failing his A-levels and being kicked out of a poly for being intellectually challenged he lived off his parents until he got in as a housing officer in Haringey and then an MP.

You don’t need a gap year for that.

Good point. When he was on a foreign excursion to the colonies.

Russian colonies with Diane?

Charles

ydoethur said:

Charles said:

I’m not a Kremlinologist, but shouldn’t Adonis have said “electable social democratic” party not “electable Democratic Socialist”?

I though the democratic socialists were East Germany, Albania etc while the social democrats are the Western European flavour of moderate lefties?

Corbyn also calls himself a Democratic Socialist.

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/08/jeremy-corbyn-labour-britain/401492/

Is that a point for or against my argument...?

squareroot2

SouthamObserver said:

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

numbertwelve said:

MarqueeMark said:

Long Bailey to champion "progresive patriotism".

Me neither.

I read the article and I’m afraid it strikes me as window dressing and one more heave. Better say I’m patriotic because that’s what those traditional voters like to hear. Talking about mill workers striking in one part of the country in support of Abraham Lincoln might be a commendable cause, but I’m not sure I subscribe to the notion that this is what many would jump to as an example of British patriotism.

There was no mention of Scotland or Wales in the article. All the places she names are in England. It is the same comfort zone platitudes that see only victims, no aspiration, no wealth creation. Also missing any reference to either Jeremy Corbyn ir anti-Semitism.

If potential Labour leaders want to reconnect with the working classes in old mining towns, is The Guardian the best mouthpiece to be using? I guess the other papers will quote their piece in small articles, but I reckon the mention of the G word is an eye roll provoker to many people who used to vote Labour, but dont anymore

I am guessing the Guardian is the best place to connect with Labour members!

readership of the Guardian is losing as much popularity as supporting Labour. =both must be desperate for cash.

MarqueeMark

Charles said:

MarqueeMark said:

isam said:

felix said:

I think constituency polls are generally pretty poor - there are all sorts of sampling problems and they seem very poor value for money. Local election results are also a poor guide. I suspect the Labour collapse in Scotland was responsible for most of the Tory losses as well as their own. Their seems no sign whatsoever that Labour are even remotely near understanding the scale of their problems there or anywhere else in the UK. The leading candidates to replace JC show zero sign of understanding the beliefs and concerns of a sufficient core of potential voters - because they will not sacrifice any of the sacred cows of the vote base they are left with.

How accurate were the Survation constituency polls for the Lib Dems?

Presumably the ones the LibDems never released were most accurate.

They never released one for Totnes. Or maybe their canvass returns were as accurate as ours. (They showed the Conservative vote at 53.0%. It was actually 53.2% on the day - we got 1 person in 500 wrong. And that was on the upside. Although...there was that guy just outside Brixham, who said he'd never vote for the Tories whilst Boris was leader....he might have been pulling my leg....)

Back in the late 80s my father said he wouldn’t donate to the Tories while Thatcher was leader.

They called him 3 days after she resigned...

We know where you live.

(well, everyone does after you get a gong....)

squareroot2

ydoethur said:

Charles said:

I’m not a Kremlinologist, but shouldn’t Adonis have said “electable social democratic” party not “electable Democratic Socialist”?

I though the democratic socialists were East Germany, Albania etc while the social democrats are the Western European flavour of moderate lefties?

Corbyn also calls himself a Democratic Socialist.

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/08/jeremy-corbyn-labour-britain/401492/

Yes Minister explained what Democratic meant, especially if the word Democratic came first...

NorthernPowerhouse

kinabalu said:

kle4 said:

It's real. Even if its nonsense it's real, the loyalty to and love of the tribe scaled up. Its even eclipsed religion in the last several centuries in some ways which is pretty impressive and unusual.

But it's nonsense from the viewpoint of a progressive. A progressive will - IMO correctly - view "love of country" as a mental aberration. Something to be treated rather than pandered to.

EDIT: By treated I mean argued against - not drugs and hospitals. Nobody in their right mind would advocate going that far.

I’m more persuaded that there is something wired wrong if you don’t have a love for your own nation.

viewcode

Charles said:

I’m not a Kremlinologist, but shouldn’t Adonis have said “electable social democratic” party not “electable Democratic Socialist”?

I though the democratic socialists were East Germany, Albania etc while the social democrats are the Western European flavour of moderate lefties?

D'y'know, I am amazed how the debates of the 70's (which I thought dead and gone) are still current in the 2010's. The democratic socialist/social democrat split in the Labour Party tells you on which wing of the Labour Party the person places himself. It's code for "dear Blairists/centrists please fuck off". It's like a Conservative MP circa 2010 muttering "better off out".

squareroot2

Charles said:

squareroot2 said:

The SNP does NOT want independence. Its would destroy its USP>

In the way that reform in RSA destroyed the USP of the ANC?

indeed its taken some time cut corruption is doing it for RSA. THE ANC will lose power eventually, to another lot of corrupt politicians from another "Democratic" country.

Fysics_Teacher

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

numbertwelve said:

MarqueeMark said:

Long Bailey to champion "progresive patriotism".

Me neither.

I read the article and I’m afraid it strikes me as window dressing and one more heave. Better say I’m patriotic because that’s what those traditional voters like to hear. Talking about mill workers striking in one part of the country in support of Abraham Lincoln might be a commendable cause, but I’m not sure I subscribe to the notion that this is what many would jump to as an example of British patriotism.

There was no mention of Scotland or Wales in the article. All the places she names are in England. It is the same comfort zone platitudes that see only victims, no aspiration, no wealth creation. Also missing any reference to either Jeremy Corbyn ir anti-Semitism.

If potential Labour leaders want to reconnect with the working classes in old mining towns, is The Guardian the best mouthpiece to be using? I guess the other papers will quote their piece in small articles, but I reckon the mention of the G word is an eye roll provoker to many people who used to vote Labour, but dont anymore

Labour voters aren’t the target audience. Labour members are.

isam

kinabalu said:

kle4 said:

It's real. Even if its nonsense it's real, the loyalty to and love of the tribe scaled up. Its even eclipsed religion in the last several centuries in some ways which is pretty impressive and unusual.

But it's nonsense from the viewpoint of a progressive. A progressive will - IMO correctly - view "love of country" as a mental aberration. Something to be treated rather than pandered to.

EDIT: By treated I mean argued against - not drugs and hospitals. Nobody in their right mind would advocate going that far.

Yeah I agree. Progressive politicians want to change the country from something they dislike, what RLB is asking people to do is love the ends of progressive politics, not their country. Fair enough, I don't see anything wrong in that, but she shouldn't use the word Patriotism.

ydoethur

Charles said:

ydoethur said:

Charles said:

I’m not a Kremlinologist, but shouldn’t Adonis have said “electable social democratic” party not “electable Democratic Socialist”?

I though the democratic socialists were East Germany, Albania etc while the social democrats are the Western European flavour of moderate lefties?

Corbyn also calls himself a Democratic Socialist.

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/08/jeremy-corbyn-labour-britain/401492/

Is that a point for or against my argument...?

Ooooh, that's a tricky one.

I'm going with 'for'...

MaxPB

Charles said:

I’m not a Kremlinologist, but shouldn’t Adonis have said “electable social democratic” party not “electable Democratic Socialist”?

I though the democratic socialists were East Germany, Albania etc while the social democrats are the Western European flavour of moderate lefties?

He probably means what he said, take the votes away from all the lumpen proletariat lest they vote to do things the establishment don't like.

MaxPB

Charles said:

MarqueeMark said:

isam said:

felix said:

I think constituency polls are generally pretty poor - there are all sorts of sampling problems and they seem very poor value for money. Local election results are also a poor guide. I suspect the Labour collapse in Scotland was responsible for most of the Tory losses as well as their own. Their seems no sign whatsoever that Labour are even remotely near understanding the scale of their problems there or anywhere else in the UK. The leading candidates to replace JC show zero sign of understanding the beliefs and concerns of a sufficient core of potential voters - because they will not sacrifice any of the sacred cows of the vote base they are left with.

How accurate were the Survation constituency polls for the Lib Dems?

Presumably the ones the LibDems never released were most accurate.

They never released one for Totnes. Or maybe their canvass returns were as accurate as ours. (They showed the Conservative vote at 53.0%. It was actually 53.2% on the day - we got 1 person in 500 wrong. And that was on the upside. Although...there was that guy just outside Brixham, who said he'd never vote for the Tories whilst Boris was leader....he might have been pulling my leg....)

Back in the late 80s my father said he wouldn’t donate to the Tories while Thatcher was leader.

They called him 3 days after she resigned...

😆

I got a call asking for money after the election after I said I wouldn't be donating to the election fund. They definitely have a list somewhere.

NorthernPowerhouse

MaxPB said:

Charles said:

I’m not a Kremlinologist, but shouldn’t Adonis have said “electable social democratic” party not “electable Democratic Socialist”?

I though the democratic socialists were East Germany, Albania etc while the social democrats are the Western European flavour of moderate lefties?

He probably means what he said, take the votes away from all the lumpen proletariat lest they vote to do things the establishment don't like.

Just like with their taxes, we know how to exercise choice better than they do. It’s for their own good.

felix

isam said:

algarkirk said:

If RL-B runs a campaign as triangulated as today's farrago in the Guardian, and especially if Ian Lavery sustains his half promise to run as well then we should be in for a comedy treat.

The absence of understanding, insight, interest, relevance and punch in RL-B's article is striking.

As for 'progressive patriotism', this is going to get stuck in the cracks between three groups: those who think it is the last refuge of a scoundrel, our Momentum friends who think that it should only apply to North Korea and Cuba and that domestic patriotism is fascism dressed up, and actual people who are just normal untriangulated patriots and don't need to drone on about it. They will next vote Labour into office when Clement Attlee turns up.

I understand it to mean "being proud to come from a nation as long as it is politically correct and multicultural", is that accurate?

...And anti-British.

eek

Fysics_Teacher said:

isam said:

SouthamObserver said:

numbertwelve said:

MarqueeMark said:

Long Bailey to champion "progresive patriotism".

Me neither.

I read the article and I’m afraid it strikes me as window dressing and one more heave. Better say I’m patriotic because that’s what those traditional voters like to hear. Talking about mill workers striking in one part of the country in support of Abraham Lincoln might be a commendable cause, but I’m not sure I subscribe to the notion that this is what many would jump to as an example of British patriotism.

There was no mention of Scotland or Wales in the article. All the places she names are in England. It is the same comfort zone platitudes that see only victims, no aspiration, no wealth creation. Also missing any reference to either Jeremy Corbyn ir anti-Semitism.

If potential Labour leaders want to reconnect with the working classes in old mining towns, is The Guardian the best mouthpiece to be using? I guess the other papers will quote their piece in small articles, but I reckon the mention of the G word is an eye roll provoker to many people who used to vote Labour, but dont anymore

Labour voters aren’t the target audience. Labour members are.

If you are targetting Labour Members (not MPs) surely the Morning Star would be essential to hit the Momentum membership.

kinabalu

NorthernPowerhouse said:

I’m more persuaded that there is something wired wrong if you don’t have a love for your own nation.

Do you love Deptford?

geoffw

Wider still and wider shall thy bounds be set
God, who made thee mighty, make thee mightier yet

... isn't that "Progressive Patriotism"?

geoffw

It's just dawned on me that RLB is a Tory sleeper agent.

nova

algarkirk said:

If RL-B runs a campaign as triangulated as today's farrago in the Guardian, and especially if Ian Lavery sustains his half promise to run as well then we should be in for a comedy treat.

The absence of understanding, insight, interest, relevance and punch in RL-B's article is striking.

As for 'progressive patriotism', this is going to get stuck in the cracks between three groups: those who think it is the last refuge of a scoundrel, our Momentum friends who think that it should only apply to North Korea and Cuba and that domestic patriotism is fascism dressed up, and actual people who are just normal untriangulated patriots and don't need to drone on about it. They will next vote Labour into office when Clement Attlee turns up.

An RLB/Lavery ticket would have the power to turn off so much more of the electorate than just one on their own.

Lavery I can't believe would run - and it would be crazy for any Union with sense would back him (although I wouldn't be surprised if they did). All the stuff with his mortgage and redundancy feeds straight into the negative stereotypes a lot of people have of union officials.

geoffw

As an exercise in oxymoronic triangulation Becky takes the biscuit.

MarqueeMark

geoffw said:

It's just dawned on me that RLB is a Tory sleeper agent.

"We're all Tory sleeper agents now, comrade...."

TGOHF666

If the other parties are smart they will fight the 2021 election on the SNPs dreadful record on health, education and general competence and not mention the constitution at all.

Should be relatively easy - hospitals and schools are declining quite rapidly - that’s before you get into ferry contracts etc.

kinabalu

isam said:

Yeah I agree. Progressive politicians want to change the country from something they dislike, what RLB is asking people to do is love the ends of progressive politics, not their country. Fair enough, I don't see anything wrong in that, but she shouldn't use the word Patriotism.

I don't think she means anything other than to make the blindingly obvious point that if you are perceived to be ANTI British this will be a net vote loser. But I haven't read the article.

As regards 'dislike of country' you can say that of any radical. If you want to massively change something it follows, from that formulation, that you dislike what it is now. Thatcher, for example, in the late 70s. She hated Britain.

RobD

I see comments on the main site again

MarqueeMark

isam said:

kinabalu said:

kle4 said:

It's real. Even if its nonsense it's real, the loyalty to and love of the tribe scaled up. Its even eclipsed religion in the last several centuries in some ways which is pretty impressive and unusual.

But it's nonsense from the viewpoint of a progressive. A progressive will - IMO correctly - view "love of country" as a mental aberration. Something to be treated rather than pandered to.

EDIT: By treated I mean argued against - not drugs and hospitals. Nobody in their right mind would advocate going that far.

Yeah I agree. Progressive politicians want to change the country from something they dislike, what RLB is asking people to do is love the ends of progressive politics, not their country. Fair enough, I don't see anything wrong in that, but she shouldn't use the word Patriotism.

I assume that "Progressive Patriotism" comes with a whole bunch of self-loathing for everything the Nation has done before: slavery, Empire, war, Blair....

MarqueeMark

geoffw said:

As an exercise in oxymoronic triangulation Becky takes the biscuit.

This is pb.com. There is a burning need to know - precisely what KIND of biscuit?

Dura_Ace

nova said:

Lavery I can't believe would run - and it would be crazy for any Union with sense would back him (although I wouldn't be surprised if they did). All the stuff with his mortgage and redundancy feeds straight into the negative stereotypes a lot of people have of union officials.

This is ante-Johnson thinking. Standards for conduct in public life are now much lower.

DecrepiterJohnL

geoffw said:

It's just dawned on me that RLB is a Tory sleeper agent.

The Tory sleeper was surely in Corbyn's private office, from where emerged:
1) voter-repellent policies that repeated mistakes under Kinnock
2) a bloated, incoherent and incredible manifesto repeating Miliband's errors
3) major changes on the hoof, similar to Theresa May's hara-kiri
4) sending Corbyn to all the wrong places, like Michael Foot

Philip_Thompson

ydoethur said:

Charles said:

I’m not a Kremlinologist, but shouldn’t Adonis have said “electable social democratic” party not “electable Democratic Socialist”?

I though the democratic socialists were East Germany, Albania etc while the social democrats are the Western European flavour of moderate lefties?

Corbyn also calls himself a Democratic Socialist.

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/08/jeremy-corbyn-labour-britain/401492/

Given his views on Jews and dissenters that sounds about right.

Philip_Thompson

Thank you @rcs1000 for the upgrade. Good to be able to see comments on the site again rather than having to go via Vanilla.

MarqueeMark

DecrepiterJohnL said:

geoffw said:

It's just dawned on me that RLB is a Tory sleeper agent.

The Tory sleeper was surely in Corbyn's private office, from where emerged:
1) voter-repellent policies that repeated mistakes under Kinnock
2) a bloated, incoherent and incredible manifesto repeating Miliband's errors
3) major changes on the hoof, similar to Theresa May's hara-kiri
4) sending Corbyn to all the wrong places, like Michael Foot

Isn't it just easier - and more likely - to be the hidden Blairites who are to blame?

Anyone who ever voted for Blair should be expelled from the Party. That should sort things out.....

algarkirk

MarqueeMark said:

geoffw said:

As an exercise in oxymoronic triangulation Becky takes the biscuit.

This is pb.com. There is a burning need to know - precisely what KIND of biscuit?

Some sorts of posh shortbreads come in circles which can be broken into roughly triangular shapes. There's also (courtesy of Mr Google) something called Sierpinski Triangle Fractal Cookies, which sound like something used by mathematicians to predict election results but is in fact a biscuit.

On another point, the very obvious, oxymoronic type of triangulation was done to death by Blair and with luck cannot be successfully revived.

Nigelb

Dura_Ace said:

nova said:

Lavery I can't believe would run - and it would be crazy for any Union with sense would back him (although I wouldn't be surprised if they did). All the stuff with his mortgage and redundancy feeds straight into the negative stereotypes a lot of people have of union officials.

This is ante-Johnson thinking. Standards for conduct in public life are now much lower.

It might be entertaining to see him attempt HIGNFY...

nova

Dura_Ace said:

nova said:

Lavery I can't believe would run - and it would be crazy for any Union with sense would back him (although I wouldn't be surprised if they did). All the stuff with his mortgage and redundancy feeds straight into the negative stereotypes a lot of people have of union officials.

This is ante-Johnson thinking. Standards for conduct in public life are now much lower.

For some.

Monkeys

The smartest thing the Conservatives could do re: hashtag Indyref2 would be to deny it for a while, whip up resentment, let the SNP get comfy thinking they can get a lot of lovely grievance that keeps their seats warm, and then force it on them. At some point the Unionists will have to coalesce under one party and a nice Independence campaign that contains a couple of polls with 10-point "Yes" leads would be just the sort of thing. It's unlikely Labour would be the party to capitalise as the trauma of the previous campaign plus the terrible mess they're in nationally due to their previous joke of a leader, and their forthcoming joke of a leader, would lead to some sort of collective nervous breakdown.

Also it would be fun. Imagine if SeanT were still around and the ten-point "Yes" poll rolled in!

Nigelb

MaxPB said:

Charles said:

MarqueeMark said:

isam said:

felix said:

I think constituency polls are generally pretty poor - there are all sorts of sampling problems and they seem very poor value for money. Local election results are also a poor guide. I suspect the Labour collapse in Scotland was responsible for most of the Tory losses as well as their own. Their seems no sign whatsoever that Labour are even remotely near understanding the scale of their problems there or anywhere else in the UK. The leading candidates to replace JC show zero sign of understanding the beliefs and concerns of a sufficient core of potential voters - because they will not sacrifice any of the sacred cows of the vote base they are left with.

How accurate were the Survation constituency polls for the Lib Dems?

Presumably the ones the LibDems never released were most accurate.

They never released one for Totnes. Or maybe their canvass returns were as accurate as ours. (They showed the Conservative vote at 53.0%. It was actually 53.2% on the day - we got 1 person in 500 wrong. And that was on the upside. Although...there was that guy just outside Brixham, who said he'd never vote for the Tories whilst Boris was leader....he might have been pulling my leg....)

Back in the late 80s my father said he wouldn’t donate to the Tories while Thatcher was leader.

They called him 3 days after she resigned...

😆

I got a call asking for money after the election after I said I wouldn't be donating to the election fund. They definitely have a list somewhere.

You can always send off a GDPR information request before Boris repeals it...

ydoethur

OK, fellers, I need some help here.

I've been crunching some numbers and I am looking for a betting market on the next Welsh assembly elections - most seats. Can't find it on betfair. Does anyone know if such a market is up yet?