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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sorry!

SystemSystem Posts: 11,784
edited December 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sorry!

About all the site problems.

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    paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461
    Commenting as normal?
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    paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461

    Commenting as normal?

    Yep, that worked.
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    BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    teat?
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    Thx Robert.

    Seems ok with Firefox on Apple.
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    But not ok with Chrome.

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    paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461
    I'm on chrome on android phone.
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    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,422
    All's well. Fulham won 1-0
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    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,422
    testing on chrome
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    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,422
    all ok on chrome 4 me
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,253
    edited December 2019
    Could this be a metaphor for Labour - a sign they must not try to go back to Blairism?
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    test
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    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,422
    edited December 2019
    ydoethur said:

    Could this be a metaphor for Labour - a sign they must not try to go back to Blairism?

    …. site is run by Lib Dem's innit?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,208
    edited December 2019
    Here's something that's been in my mind today and it frightens me

    1) If Chris Williamson hadn't lost the Labour whip

    and

    2) If Chris Williamson had held on to his seat at the GE

    he'd be the shoo-in as Corbyn's replacement right?
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    This is an incredible story about Hulk, and also like the plot from something on pornhub.

    Brazil star Hulk 'leaves wife for her niece' after 12-year relationship.

    Hulk, real name Givanildo Vieira de Sousa, reportedly split from his wife Iran in July with the couple having three children together

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/brazil-star-hulk-leaves-wife-21174204
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    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,422
    edited December 2019

    Here's something that's been in my mind today and it frightens me

    1) If Chris Williamson hadn't lost the Labour whip

    and

    2) If Chris Williamson had held on to his seat at the GE

    he'd be the shoo-in as Corbyn's replacement right?

    Is he a proven anti semite?
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    This is an incredible story about Hulk, and also like the plot from something on pornhub.

    Brazil star Hulk 'leaves wife for her niece' after 12-year relationship.

    Hulk, real name Givanildo Vieira de Sousa, reportedly split from his wife Iran in July with the couple having three children together

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/brazil-star-hulk-leaves-wife-21174204

    What dreams are made off, lol.
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    HYUFD said:
    By the summer of 2020 labour will have fractured into two
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,373
    edited December 2019
    RLB price dropping fast - now hit 5, was 3.7 earlier today.

    Lavery now at 19 - does seem unlikely Lavery would win but then we all said the same about Corbyn!

    I've posted on here that RLB might well struggle as she just doesn't look and sound like a PM and even left wing members are going to seriously consider electability. But surely almost everyone would think RLB has more chance of winning than Lavery - so I would be surprised if the hard left opted for Lavery over RLB.

    Of course they will have a decision to take as they might not both be able to get on the ballot.
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    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,422

    HYUFD said:
    By the summer of 2020 labour will have fractured into two
    Happy New Year for the Tories then!
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,902
    MikeL said:

    RLB price dropping fast - now hit 5, was 3.7 earlier today.

    Lavery now at 19 - does seem unlikely Lavery would win but then we all said the same about Corbyn!

    I've posted on here that RLB might well struggle as she just doesn't look and sound like a PM and even left wing members are going to seriously consider electability. But surely almost everyone would think RLB has more chance of winning than Lavery - so I would be surprised if the hard left opted for Lavery over RLB.

    Of course they will have a decision to take as they might not both be able to get on the ballot.

    Long Bailey looks more IDS to Lavery's Michael Howard.
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    HYUFD said:
    By the summer of 2020 labour will have fractured into two
    Happy New Year for the Tories then!
    Not sure I am content for the opposition to disappear
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    Sky Breaking

    RLB confirms she is considering standing
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    Sky

    Angela Rayner to be backed by RLB for deputy but Angela Rayner has said she will not back RLB

    You could not make this up
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    Sky Breaking

    RLB confirms she is considering standing

    She was always going to.
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    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,224
    MikeL said:

    RLB price dropping fast - now hit 5, was 3.7 earlier today.

    Lavery now at 19 - does seem unlikely Lavery would win but then we all said the same about Corbyn!

    I've posted on here that RLB might well struggle as she just doesn't look and sound like a PM and even left wing members are going to seriously consider electability. But surely almost everyone would think RLB has more chance of winning than Lavery - so I would be surprised if the hard left opted for Lavery over RLB.

    Of course they will have a decision to take as they might not both be able to get on the ballot.

    If Ian Lavery is the answer, you have to wonder what the question was.

    I'm going with "do you want to watch the Labour leader lose his seat at the next general election?"

    With a majority of just 814 it would be the ultimate Portillo moment.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Just laid £2@940 John McD...
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,069
    isam said:

    Just laid £2@940 John McD...

    Brave for pennies
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    This Lavery thing is someone at the wind up, isn't it?

    Isn't it?

    *head in hands*
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    This Lavery thing is someone at the wind up, isn't it?

    Isn't it?

    *head in hands*

    Seems not. Labour is over at this rate
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    Barnesian said:

    isam said:

    Just laid £2@940 John McD...

    Brave for pennies
    Indeed.
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,069
    Anything could happen.

    McDonnell, who is impulsive, could say "Sod it. I'm in".
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    MJWMJW Posts: 1,499
    Not going to happen, but I almost think the best thing that could happen to British politics would be for Lavery to win the Labour leadership, disabuse moderates of the idea Labour is in any way salvageable or morally defensible, and start again or remake the Lib Dems as a progressive party that can actually take on the Tories, rather than selecting an RLB or even a Rayner who would keep the whole house of cards from collapsing but will be prevented from making big inroads by a combination of lack of experience, Corbyn's toxic legacy, and being chained to a losing policy pitch by a membership that still hasn't come to terms with the nature and scale of their defeat. Starmer or Nandy would stand a better chance but would still struggle to move on from Corbynism's grotesque failings without having a civil war that likely means 2023/24 is a write off in terms of winning as it will take large amounts of their time and energy.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,165
    edited December 2019
    HYUFD said:
    The dodgy union chap? RLB is definitely better than him.

    I assume its because he is a more leavey sort and is presumed to be able to appeal more to northern working class people, but even not being the target audience there seem better candidates.

    I won't ask if the moderates would wear having him as a leader, because there are no moderates left (not in the sense of moderate politics, but in the sense of a distinct group who will not be willing to kowtow to rehashed Corbynism).
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,165

    Sky Breaking

    RLB confirms she is considering standing

    I'm not a fan of 'considering standing' as announcements go, although it is more justified in Labour's system than the Tories, given the criteria to get on the ballot requires more backing and effort. But if you are going for it say so plainly, even if you then don't manage to get the MP/Union backing. Don't pussyfoot about.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,136
    edited December 2019
    Lavery has the tight ultra-marginal of Wansbeck to defend next time round.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,995
    kle4 said:

    Sky Breaking

    RLB confirms she is considering standing

    I'm not a fan of 'considering standing' as announcements go, although it is more justified in Labour's system than the Tories, given the criteria to get on the ballot requires more backing and effort. But if you are going for it say so plainly, even if you then don't manage to get the MP/Union backing. Don't pussyfoot about.
    Guardian front page pretty well constitutes an announcement...
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/29/rebecca-long-bailey-makes-opening-pitch-for-labour-leadership
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,136
    Novara Media a good source of info on Lab leadership. Lavery and Ash Sarkar were on the battle bus together.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Barnesian said:

    Anything could happen.

    McDonnell, who is impulsive, could say "Sod it. I'm in".

    I backed him at 1000 for £15 then realised what a stupid bet it was, so laying a bit of it back makes it seem better
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    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,224
    Pulpstar said:

    Lavery has the tight ultra-marginal of Wansbeck to defend next time round.

    With a majority of 814 and 3141 brexit party votes up for grabs, Lavery may be in serious trouble next time round.

    Partly because some of them will surely reward the Tories if brexit happens (and presumably BXP folds), partly because Boris looks set to soak the red wall seats in cash, partly simply because the stigma of voting Conservative in those seats feels well and truly broken now.

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    This Lavery thing is someone at the wind up, isn't it?

    Isn't it?

    *head in hands*

    It's a lot of middle class idiots thinking because he's got a northern accent, he'll appeal to t'North, when he's a complete and utter wrong 'un and we could sniff that out from 100 yards away.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,445

    HYUFD said:
    By the summer of 2020 labour will have fractured into two
    One half might be led by a winner.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,620
    kyf_100 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Lavery has the tight ultra-marginal of Wansbeck to defend next time round.

    With a majority of 814 and 3141 brexit party votes up for grabs, Lavery may be in serious trouble next time round.

    Partly because some of them will surely reward the Tories if brexit happens (and presumably BXP folds), partly because Boris looks set to soak the red wall seats in cash, partly simply because the stigma of voting Conservative in those seats feels well and truly broken now.

    I'm not sure how Boris will soak the "Red Wall" seats in cash.

    Sajid has already planned the second biggest fiscal loosening in the post-WW2 period (only beaten by the response to the GFC), and this is at the end of a long-running economic expansion.

    Ultimately, it's not easy for governments to engineer economic growth outside (maybe) a few hotspots that get lavished in new projects. And even there...

    If governments could conjure up economic growth, then it would have already happened. There's only a limited opportunity for governments to spend more than the resources they have available to them. And, of course, even doing this is not without its consequences.

    Increasing government expenditure also doesn't result in the production of goods for export; so in isolation it will tend to worsen imbalances inside the economy. And because of the low UK savings rate, additional government borrowing ends up being bought by foreigners, worsening our long-term balances because now we need to send interest payments abroad.

    I don't mean to sound negative, but if it was easy to get Stoke-on-Trent moving, then it would have already happened.
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    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    The dodgy union chap? RLB is definitely better than him.

    I assume its because he is a more leavey sort and is presumed to be able to appeal more to northern working class people, but even not being the target audience there seem better candidates.

    I won't ask if the moderates would wear having him as a leader, because there are no moderates left (not in the sense of moderate politics, but in the sense of a distinct group who will not be willing to kowtow to rehashed Corbynism).
    Or, she's running...

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1211424428694933504
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    HYUFD said:
    By the summer of 2020 labour will have fractured into two
    One half might be led by a winner.

    HYUFD said:
    By the summer of 2020 labour will have fractured into two
    One half might be led by a winner.
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1211423338217779201
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    pm215pm215 Posts: 977


    By the summer of 2020 labour will have fractured into two

    I would suggest that one of the lessons of 2017-19 is that neither of the two main parties is going to fracture; the strains are great, but the bindings imposed by FPTP are greater.

    If the Tories would like Labour to split, they should introduce PR for Westminster elections. (The real troll move would be to then un-introduce it once your opponents have split into smaller parties :-))

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    :lol: Corbynista to split!! Best news in ages.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Aaargh. Why did I lay Lavery @ 140, should have let my speculative bet @240 ride.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,165
    I'll say this for Lord Adonis - when he becomes convinced of a path he doesn't commit to it by half measures.
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    Pulpstar said:

    Lavery has the tight ultra-marginal of Wansbeck to defend next time round.

    He may like to ponder why Wansbeck is now an ultra marginal. It is something to do with Corbyn, but I can't quite place my finger on it.
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    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,224
    rcs1000 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Lavery has the tight ultra-marginal of Wansbeck to defend next time round.

    With a majority of 814 and 3141 brexit party votes up for grabs, Lavery may be in serious trouble next time round.

    Partly because some of them will surely reward the Tories if brexit happens (and presumably BXP folds), partly because Boris looks set to soak the red wall seats in cash, partly simply because the stigma of voting Conservative in those seats feels well and truly broken now.

    I'm not sure how Boris will soak the "Red Wall" seats in cash.

    Sajid has already planned the second biggest fiscal loosening in the post-WW2 period (only beaten by the response to the GFC), and this is at the end of a long-running economic expansion.

    Ultimately, it's not easy for governments to engineer economic growth outside (maybe) a few hotspots that get lavished in new projects. And even there...

    If governments could conjure up economic growth, then it would have already happened. There's only a limited opportunity for governments to spend more than the resources they have available to them. And, of course, even doing this is not without its consequences.

    Increasing government expenditure also doesn't result in the production of goods for export; so in isolation it will tend to worsen imbalances inside the economy. And because of the low UK savings rate, additional government borrowing ends up being bought by foreigners, worsening our long-term balances because now we need to send interest payments abroad.

    I don't mean to sound negative, but if it was easy to get Stoke-on-Trent moving, then it would have already happened.
    A fair point. I'm not even sure how more cash improves the lot of the red wall seats when the problem is demographic. The young keep leaving and going where there are more opportunities. But surely this in part helps explain the shift to the blues, too, as the oldies are more likely to vote for them.

    But when writing my previous post I was thinking of this article I saw a couple of days ago, which seems to indicate those seats will receive preferential treatment.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50925321
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    https://twitter.com/Momentum_NHS/status/1211265892472033281

    Yeh, like winning power and changing lives.
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    Alistair said:

    Aaargh. Why did I lay Lavery @ 140, should have let my speculative bet @240 ride.

    Can't you cash out?
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,295
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/29/motorcycle-gift-puts-boris-johnson-back-on-his-bike

    Another clearly artificial attempt to humanise the lying sack of shit (see also Dilyn the Dog). TTR125 is a weird choice because a) it's a kid's bike and b) it's carb not FI which will be a pain in the dick for a bike that won't be ridden regularly.

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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,165

    Pulpstar said:

    Lavery has the tight ultra-marginal of Wansbeck to defend next time round.

    He may like to ponder why Wansbeck is now an ultra marginal. It is something to do with Corbyn, but I can't quite place my finger on it.
    Not enough of him?

    More seriously, even if the candidates do not want to repudiate Corbyn and Corbynism, dancing around the matter or suggesting he and everything about him and his politics was great just is not going to cut it. We have already seen some attempt to blame how he was advised - as if that means anything given he accepted that advice, and his halfway house neutrality on Brexit was defended as being a result of his cast iron principles - or that he was just unfairly maligned, but can that really last through a leadership campaign?
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    FishingFishing Posts: 4,588
    edited December 2019
    kle4 said:

    I'll say this for Lord Adonis - when he becomes convinced of a path he doesn't commit to it by half measures.
    He should read pb.com more then he'd realise that Blair was one of the primary causes of Brexit.

    Not sure Adonis would be so keen on him then.
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    TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    From RLB’s piece in the Guardian

    “Working with campaigners, trade unions and experts, I have been proud to champion our party’s plans for a green industrial revolution to tackle the climate crisis through investment in good, unionised jobs “

    Dom will be laughing into his goblet of virgin’s blood - what a gift to the Tories she would be.

    Sub Student union drivel.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    Aaargh. Why did I lay Lavery @ 140, should have let my speculative bet @240 ride.

    Can't you cash out?
    Oh yeah, I can cash out green on the market. And I'm in profit on that Lavery back and lay but I laid too early. He's down to mid twenties now, that would have been a lot more profit than what I got.

    My main worry is that if RLB doesn't stand then Leadership voters might see a choice of Lavery or Starmer and decide 'fuck that' when it comes to Corbyn's legacy and pick Starmer. I am currently deep red on Starmer as I thought he had no chance vs RLB.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,445
    Worship in today's America:

    "The gunman fired again, at the man he had spoken to, before a member of the congregation returned fire with a handgun, immediately felling the attacker. Several other parishioners also produced handguns and trained them on the attacker...."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-50942664
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,620
    kyf_100 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Lavery has the tight ultra-marginal of Wansbeck to defend next time round.

    With a majority of 814 and 3141 brexit party votes up for grabs, Lavery may be in serious trouble next time round.

    Partly because some of them will surely reward the Tories if brexit happens (and presumably BXP folds), partly because Boris looks set to soak the red wall seats in cash, partly simply because the stigma of voting Conservative in those seats feels well and truly broken now.

    I'm not sure how Boris will soak the "Red Wall" seats in cash.

    Sajid has already planned the second biggest fiscal loosening in the post-WW2 period (only beaten by the response to the GFC), and this is at the end of a long-running economic expansion.

    Ultimately, it's not easy for governments to engineer economic growth outside (maybe) a few hotspots that get lavished in new projects. And even there...

    If governments could conjure up economic growth, then it would have already happened. There's only a limited opportunity for governments to spend more than the resources they have available to them. And, of course, even doing this is not without its consequences.

    Increasing government expenditure also doesn't result in the production of goods for export; so in isolation it will tend to worsen imbalances inside the economy. And because of the low UK savings rate, additional government borrowing ends up being bought by foreigners, worsening our long-term balances because now we need to send interest payments abroad.

    I don't mean to sound negative, but if it was easy to get Stoke-on-Trent moving, then it would have already happened.
    A fair point. I'm not even sure how more cash improves the lot of the red wall seats when the problem is demographic. The young keep leaving and going where there are more opportunities. But surely this in part helps explain the shift to the blues, too, as the oldies are more likely to vote for them.

    But when writing my previous post I was thinking of this article I saw a couple of days ago, which seems to indicate those seats will receive preferential treatment.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50925321
    The demographic issue has been an absolute killer in the US. Municipalities find an ever greater amount is being spent on pensions, which means higher property taxes and lower spending on education, which means that people of working age move out... It's a vicious cycle.

    There's an inevitable wave of municipal bankruptcies coming. It's going to be absolutely brutal.

    We have less of an issue in the UK. But it's still very real.

    I think any government has far less room for manoeuvre than we tend to think. Economic conditions are pretty much top of the cycle right now, with essentially no unemployment.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    rcs1000 said:



    The demographic issue has been an absolute killer in the US. Municipalities find an ever greater amount is being spent on pensions, which means higher property taxes and lower spending on education, which means that people of working age move out... It's a vicious cycle.

    There's an inevitable wave of municipal bankruptcies coming. It's going to be absolutely brutal.

    We have less of an issue in the UK. But it's still very real.

    I think any government has far less room for manoeuvre than we tend to think. Economic conditions are pretty much top of the cycle right now, with essentially no unemployment.

    And due to the tax free status of muni bonds regular folks across America have exposure through their pensions to these upcoming bankruptcies.
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    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Aaargh. Why did I lay Lavery @ 140, should have let my speculative bet @240 ride.

    Can't you cash out?
    Oh yeah, I can cash out green on the market. And I'm in profit on that Lavery back and lay but I laid too early. He's down to mid twenties now, that would have been a lot more profit than what I got.

    My main worry is that if RLB doesn't stand then Leadership voters might see a choice of Lavery or Starmer and decide 'fuck that' when it comes to Corbyn's legacy and pick Starmer. I am currently deep red on Starmer as I thought he had no chance vs RLB.
    R.L-B should beat Keir.
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    TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    rcs1000 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Lavery has the tight ultra-marginal of Wansbeck to defend next time round.

    With a majority of 814 and 3141 brexit party votes up for grabs, Lavery may be in serious trouble next time round.

    Partly because some of them will surely reward the Tories if brexit happens (and presumably BXP folds), partly because Boris looks set to soak the red wall seats in cash, partly simply because the stigma of voting Conservative in those seats feels well and truly broken now.

    I'm not sure how Boris will soak the "Red Wall" seats in cash.

    Sajid has already planned the second biggest fiscal loosening in the post-WW2 period (only beaten by the response to the GFC), and this is at the end of a long-running economic expansion.

    I don't mean to sound negative, but if it was easy to get Stoke-on-Trent moving, then it would have already happened.
    A fair point. I'm not even sure how more cash improves the lot of the red wall seats when the problem is demographic. The young keep leaving and going where there are more opportunities. But surely this in part helps explain the shift to the blues, too, as the oldies are more likely to vote for them.

    But when writing my previous post I was thinking of this article I saw a couple of days ago, which seems to indicate those seats will receive preferential treatment.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50925321
    The demographic issue has been an absolute killer in the US. Municipalities find an ever greater amount is being spent on pensions, which means higher property taxes and lower spending on education, which means that people of working age move out... It's a vicious cycle.

    There's an inevitable wave of municipal bankruptcies coming. It's going to be absolutely brutal.

    We have less of an issue in the UK. But it's still very real.

    I think any government has far less room for manoeuvre than we tend to think. Economic conditions are pretty much top of the cycle right now, with essentially no unemployment.
    How many councils in the Uk still offer defined benefit pensions ?

    And assuming the correct answer is zero - when will be the inflection point when these pension commitments start to drop ?
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    MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 755

    :lol: Corbynista to split!! Best news in ages.

    Owen Jones will have to start campaigning for Real Momentum - a Momentum within Momentum for the True Believers in whatever bullshit it is they're going to be pushing.
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    Dura_Ace said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/29/motorcycle-gift-puts-boris-johnson-back-on-his-bike

    Another clearly artificial attempt to humanise the lying sack of shit (see also Dilyn the Dog). TTR125 is a weird choice because a) it's a kid's bike and b) it's carb not FI which will be a pain in the dick for a bike that won't be ridden regularly.

    No harm to Dilyn, but BJ taking him out in a fatty unable to control underpowered bike related incident would be the perfect consummation of Project Turdpolish.
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    TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052

    Dura_Ace said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/29/motorcycle-gift-puts-boris-johnson-back-on-his-bike

    Another clearly artificial attempt to humanise the lying sack of shit (see also Dilyn the Dog). TTR125 is a weird choice because a) it's a kid's bike and b) it's carb not FI which will be a pain in the dick for a bike that won't be ridden regularly.

    No harm to Dilyn, but BJ taking him out in a fatty unable to control underpowered bike related incident would be the perfect consummation of Project Turdpolish.
    Andrew Neil was right..

    https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/5115254/nhs-scotland-bed-blocking-complaints/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,620
    TGOHF666 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Lavery has the tight ultra-marginal of Wansbeck to defend next time round.

    With a majority of 814 and 3141 brexit party votes up for grabs, Lavery may be in serious trouble next time round.

    Partly because some of them will surely reward the Tories if brexit happens (and presumably BXP folds), partly because Boris looks set to soak the red wall seats in cash, partly simply because the stigma of voting Conservative in those seats feels well and truly broken now.

    I'm not sure how Boris will soak the "Red Wall" seats in cash.

    Sajid has already planned the second biggest fiscal loosening in the post-WW2 period (only beaten by the response to the GFC), and this is at the end of a long-running economic expansion.

    I don't mean to sound negative, but if it was easy to get Stoke-on-Trent moving, then it would have already happened.
    A fair point. I'm not even sure how more cash improves the lot of the red wall seats when the problem is demographic. The young keep leaving and going where there are more opportunities. But surely this in part helps explain the shift to the blues, too, as the oldies are more likely to vote for them.

    But when writing my previous post I was thinking of this article I saw a couple of days ago, which seems to indicate those seats will receive preferential treatment.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50925321
    The demographic issue has been an absolute killer in the US. Municipalities find an ever greater amount is being spent on pensions, which means higher property taxes and lower spending on education, which means that people of working age move out... It's a vicious cycle.

    There's an inevitable wave of municipal bankruptcies coming. It's going to be absolutely brutal.

    We have less of an issue in the UK. But it's still very real.

    I think any government has far less room for manoeuvre than we tend to think. Economic conditions are pretty much top of the cycle right now, with essentially no unemployment.
    How many councils in the Uk still offer defined benefit pensions ?

    And assuming the correct answer is zero - when will be the inflection point when these pension commitments start to drop ?
    Most UK councils still offer defined benefit pensions.
  • Options
    rcs1000 said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Lavery has the tight ultra-marginal of Wansbeck to defend next time round.

    With a majority of 814 and 3141 brexit party votes up for grabs, Lavery may be in serious trouble next time round.

    Partly because some of them will surely reward the Tories if brexit happens (and presumably BXP folds), partly because Boris looks set to soak the red wall seats in cash, partly simply because the stigma of voting Conservative in those seats feels well and truly broken now.

    I'm not sure how Boris will soak the "Red Wall" seats in cash.

    Sajid has already planned the second biggest fiscal loosening in the post-WW2 period (only beaten by the response to the GFC), and this is at the end of a long-running economic expansion.

    I don't mean to sound negative, but if it was easy to get Stoke-on-Trent moving, then it would have already happened.
    A fair point. I'm not even sure how more cash improves the lot of the red wall seats when the problem is demographic. The young keep leaving and going where there are more opportunities. But surely this in part helps explain the shift to the blues, too, as the oldies are more likely to vote for them.

    But when writing my previous post I was thinking of this article I saw a couple of days ago, which seems to indicate those seats will receive preferential treatment.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50925321
    The demographic issue has been an absolute killer in the US. Municipalities find an ever greater amount is being spent on pensions, which means higher property taxes and lower spending on education, which means that people of working age move out... It's a vicious cycle.

    There's an inevitable wave of municipal bankruptcies coming. It's going to be absolutely brutal.

    We have less of an issue in the UK. But it's still very real.

    I think any government has far less room for manoeuvre than we tend to think. Economic conditions are pretty much top of the cycle right now, with essentially no unemployment.
    How many councils in the Uk still offer defined benefit pensions ?

    And assuming the correct answer is zero - when will be the inflection point when these pension commitments start to drop ?
    Most UK councils still offer defined benefit pensions.
    All English councils will offer the local government pension scheme which is defined benefits. There is no plausible alternative at the moment. Lgps is fully funded.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,184
    edited December 2019

    rcs1000 said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Lavery has the tight ultra-marginal of Wansbeck to defend next time round.

    With a majority of 814 and 3141 brexit party votes up for grabs, Lavery may be in serious trouble next time round.

    Partly because some of them will surely reward the Tories if brexit happens (and presumably BXP folds), partly because Boris looks set to soak the red wall seats in cash, partly simply because the stigma of voting Conservative in those seats feels well and truly broken now.

    I'm not sure how Boris will soak the "Red Wall" seats in cash.

    Sajid has already planned the second biggest fiscal loosening in the post-WW2 period (only beaten by the response to the GFC), and this is at the end of a long-running economic expansion.

    I don't mean to sound negative, but if it was easy to get Stoke-on-Trent moving, then it would have already happened.
    A fair point. I'm not even sure how more cash improves the lot of the red wall seats when the problem is demographic. The young keep leaving and going where there are more opportunities. But surely this in part helps explain the shift to the blues, too, as the oldies are more likely to vote for them.

    But when writing my previous post I was thinking of this article I saw a couple of days ago, which seems to indicate those seats will receive preferential treatment.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50925321
    The demographic issue has been an absolute killer in the US. Municipalities find an ever greater amount is being spent on pensions, which means higher property taxes and lower spending on education, which means that people of working age move out... It's a vicious cycle.

    There's an inevitable wave of municipal bankruptcies coming. It's going to be absolutely brutal.

    We have less of an issue in the UK. But it's still very real.

    I think any government has far less room for manoeuvre than we tend to think. Economic conditions are pretty much top of the cycle right now, with essentially no unemployment.
    How many councils in the Uk still offer defined benefit pensions ?

    And assuming the correct answer is zero - when will be the inflection point when these pension commitments start to drop ?
    Most UK councils still offer defined benefit pensions.
    All English councils will offer the local government pension scheme which is defined benefits. There is no plausible alternative at the moment. Lgps is fully funded.
    I was curious about it and looked on their website. Members of that scheme only pay 2% of their salary each year into the pot :o
  • Options
    Alistair said:

    rcs1000 said:



    The demographic issue has been an absolute killer in the US. Municipalities find an ever greater amount is being spent on pensions, which means higher property taxes and lower spending on education, which means that people of working age move out... It's a vicious cycle.

    There's an inevitable wave of municipal bankruptcies coming. It's going to be absolutely brutal.

    We have less of an issue in the UK. But it's still very real.

    I think any government has far less room for manoeuvre than we tend to think. Economic conditions are pretty much top of the cycle right now, with essentially no unemployment.

    And due to the tax free status of muni bonds regular folks across America have exposure through their pensions to these upcoming bankruptcies.
    20% of payroll bill funds England lgps
  • Options
    TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052

    rcs1000 said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Lavery has the tight ultra-marginal of Wansbeck to defend next time round.

    With a majority of 814 and 3141 brexit party votes up for grabs, Lavery may be in serious trouble next time round.

    Partly because some of them will surely reward the Tories if brexit happens (and presumably BXP folds), partly because Boris looks set to soak the red wall seats in cash, partly simply because the stigma of voting Conservative in those seats feels well and truly broken now.

    I'm not sure how Boris will soak the "Red Wall" seats in cash.

    Sajid has already planned the second biggest fiscal loosening in the post-WW2 period (only beaten by the response to the GFC), and this is at the end of a long-running economic expansion.

    I don't mean to sound negative, but if it was easy to get Stoke-on-Trent moving, then it would have already happened.
    A fair point. I'm not even sure how more cash improves the lot of the red wall seats when the problem is demographic. The young keep leaving and going where there are more opportunities. But surely this in part helps explain the shift to the blues, too, as the oldies are more likely to vote for them.

    But when writing my previous post I was thinking of this article I saw a couple of days ago, which seems to indicate those seats will receive preferential treatment.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50925321
    The demographic issue has been an absolute killer in the US. Municipalities find an ever greater amount is being spent on pensions, which means higher property taxes and lower spending on education, which means that people of working age move out... It's a vicious cycle.

    There's an inevitable wave of municipal bankruptcies coming. It's going to be absolutely brutal.

    We have less of an issue in the UK. But it's still very real.

    I think any government has far less room for manoeuvre than we tend to think. Economic conditions are pretty much top of the cycle right now, with essentially no unemployment.
    How many councils in the Uk still offer defined benefit pensions ?

    And assuming the correct answer is zero - when will be the inflection point when these pension commitments start to drop ?
    Most UK councils still offer defined benefit pensions.
    All English councils will offer the local government pension scheme which is defined benefits. There is no plausible alternative at the moment. Lgps is fully funded.
    Fully funded by worker and employer contributions?

    I don’t believe that.

  • Options
    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Lavery has the tight ultra-marginal of Wansbeck to defend next time round.

    With a majority of 814
    I'm not sure how Boris will soak the "Red Wall" seats in cash.

    Sajid has already planned the second biggest fiscal loosening in the post-WW2 period (only beaten by the response to the GFC), and this is at the end of a long-running economic expansion.

    I don't mean to sound negative, but if it was easy to get Stoke-on-Trent moving, then it would have already happened.
    A fair point. I'm not even sure how more cash improves the lot of the red wall seats when the problem is demographic. The young keep leaving and going where there are more opportunities. But surely this in part helps explain the shift to the blues, too, as the oldies are more likely to vote for them.

    But when writing my previous post I was thinking of this article I saw a couple of days ago, which seems to indicate those seats will receive preferential treatment.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50925321
    The demographic issue has been an absolute killer in the US. Municipalities find an ever greater amount is being spent on pensions, which means higher property taxes and lower spending on education, which means that people of working age move out... It's a vicious cycle.

    There's an inevitable wave of municipal bankruptcies coming. It's going to be absolutely brutal.

    We have less of an issue in the UK. But it's still very real.

    I think any government has far less room for manoeuvre than we tend to think. Economic conditions are pretty much top of the cycle right now, with essentially no unemployment.
    How many councils in the Uk still offer defined benefit pensions ?

    And assuming the correct answer is zero - when will be the inflection point when these pension commitments start to drop ?
    Most UK councils still offer defined benefit pensions.
    All English councils will offer the local government pension scheme which is defined benefits. There is no plausible alternative at the moment. Lgps is fully funded.
    I was curious about it and looked on their website. Members of that scheme only pay 2% of their salary each year into the pot :o
    What are you looking at? Sliding scale of 5.5% to 12.5% depending on salary..
  • Options
    TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052

    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Lavery has the tight ultra-marginal of Wansbeck to defend next time round.

    With a majority of 814
    I'm not sure how Boris will soak the "Red Wall" seats in cash.

    Sajid has already planned the second biggest fiscal loosening in the post-WW2 period (only beaten by the response to the GFC), and this is at the end of a long-running economic expansion.

    I don't mean to sound negative, but if it was easy to get Stoke-on-Trent moving, then it would have already happened.
    A fair point. I'm not even sure how more cash improves the lot of the red wall seats when the problem is demographic. The young keep leaving and going where there are more opportunities. But surely this in part helps explain the shift to the blues, too, as the oldies are more likely to vote for them.

    But when writing my previous post I was thinking of this article I saw a couple of days ago, which seems to indicate those seats will receive preferential treatment.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50925321
    The demographic issue has been an absolute killer in the US. Municipalities find an ever greater amount is being spent on pensions, which means higher property taxes and lower spending on education, which means that people of working age move out... It's a vicious cycle.

    There's an inevitable wave of municipal bankruptcies coming. It's going to be absolutely brutal.

    We have less of an issue in the UK. But it's still very real.

    I think any government has far less room for manoeuvre than we tend to think. Economic conditions are pretty much top of the cycle right now, with essentially no unemployment.
    How many councils in the Uk still offer defined benefit pensions ?

    And assuming the correct answer is zero - when will be the inflection point when these pension commitments start to drop ?
    Most UK councils still offer defined benefit pensions.
    All English councils will offer the local government pension scheme which is defined benefits. There is no plausible alternative at the moment. Lgps is fully funded.
    I was curious about it and looked on their website. Members of that scheme only pay 2% of their salary each year into the pot :o
    What are you looking at? Sliding scale of 5.5% to 12.5% depending on salary..
    It’s a Ponzi scheme though.

    Zero private sector pensions operate that way.

  • Options
    TGOHF666 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Lavery has the tight ultra-marginal of Wansbeck to defend next time round.

    With a majority of 814 and 3141 brexit party votes up for grabs, Lavery may be in serious trouble next time round.

    Partly because some of them will surely reward the Tories if brexit happens (and presumably BXP folds), partly because Boris looks set to soak the red wall seats in cash, partly simply because the stigma of voting Conservative in those seats feels well and truly broken now.

    I'm not sure how Boris will soak the "Red Wall" seats in cash.

    Sajid has already planned the second biggest fiscal loosening in the post-WW2 period (only beaten by the response to the GFC), and this is at the end of a long-running economic expansion.

    I don't mean to sound negative, but if it was easy to get Stoke-on-Trent moving, then it would have already happened.
    A fair point. I'm not even sure how more cash improves the lot of the red wall seats when the problem is demographic. The young keep leaving and going where there are more opportunities. But surely this in part helps explain the shift, too, as the oldies are more likely to vote for them.

    But when writing my previous post I was thinking of this article I saw a couple of days ago, which seems to indicate those seats will receive preferential treatment.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50925321
    The demographic issue has been an absolute killer in the US. Municipalities find angher property taxes and lower spending on education, which means that people of working age move out... It's a vicious cycle.

    There's an inevitable wave of municipal bankruptcies coming. It's going to be absolutely brutal.

    We have less of an issue in the UK. But it's still very real.

    I think any government has far less room for manoeuvre than we tend to think. Economic conditions are pretty much top of the cycle right now, with essentially no unemployment.
    How many councils in the Uk still offer defined benefit pensions ?

    And assuming the correct answer is zero - when will be the inflection point when these pension commitments start to drop ?
    Most UK councils still offer defined benefit pensions.
    All English councils will offer the local government pension scheme which is defined benefits. There is no plausible alternative at the moment. Lgps is fully funded.
    Fully funded by worker and employer contributions?

    I don’t believe that.

    Yes. Employee fixed, employer makes up variance. The sums are enormous...
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,184

    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Lavery has the tight ultra-marginal of Wansbeck to defend next time round.

    With a majority of 814
    I'm not sure how Boris will soak the "Red Wall" seats in cash.

    Sajid has already planned the second biggest fiscal loosening in the post-WW2 period (only beaten by the response to the GFC), and this is at the end of a long-running economic expansion.

    I don't mean to sound negative, but if it was easy to get Stoke-on-Trent moving, then it would have already happened.
    A fair point. I'm not even sure how more cash improves the lot of the red wall seats when the problem is demographic. The young keep leaving and going where there are more opportunities. But surely this in part helps explain the shift to the blues, too, as the oldies are more likely to vote for them.

    But when writing my previous post I was thinking of this article I saw a couple of days ago, which seems to indicate those seats will receive preferential treatment.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50925321
    The demographic issue has been an absolute killer in the US. Municipalities find an ever greater amount is being spent on pensions, which means higher property taxes and lower spending on education, which means that people of working age move out... It's a vicious cycle.

    There's an inevitable wave of municipal bankruptcies coming. It's going to be absolutely brutal.

    We have less of an issue in the UK. But it's still very real.

    I think any government has far less room for manoeuvre than we tend to think. Economic conditions are pretty much top of the cycle right now, with essentially no unemployment.
    How many councils in the Uk still offer defined benefit pensions ?

    And assuming the correct answer is zero - when will be the inflection point when these pension commitments start to drop ?
    Most UK councils still offer defined benefit pensions.
    All English councils will offer the local government pension scheme which is defined benefits. There is no plausible alternative at the moment. Lgps is fully funded.
    I was curious about it and looked on their website. Members of that scheme only pay 2% of their salary each year into the pot :o
    What are you looking at? Sliding scale of 5.5% to 12.5% depending on salary..
    https://www.lgpsmember.org/toj/thinking-joining-key.php

    I probably misinterpreted the statement that 1/49th of your salary is put into the pot!
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    MikeL said:

    RLB price dropping fast - now hit 5, was 3.7 earlier today.

    Lavery now at 19 - does seem unlikely Lavery would win but then we all said the same about Corbyn!

    I've posted on here that RLB might well struggle as she just doesn't look and sound like a PM and even left wing members are going to seriously consider electability. But surely almost everyone would think RLB has more chance of winning than Lavery - so I would be surprised if the hard left opted for Lavery over RLB.

    Of course they will have a decision to take as they might not both be able to get on the ballot.

    Long Bailey looks more IDS to Lavery's Michael Howard.
    Long bailey isn’t even William Hague...
  • Options
    TGOHF666 said:

    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Lavery has the tight ultra-marginal of Wansbeck to defend next time round.

    With a majority of 814
    I'm not sure how Boris will soak the "Red Wall" seats in cash.

    Sajid has already planned the second biggest fiscal loosening in the post-WW2 period (only beaten by the response to the GFC), and this is at the end of a long-running economic expansion.

    I don't mean to sound negative, but if it was easy to get Stoke-on-Trent moving, then it would have already happened.
    A fair point. I'm not even sure how more cash improves the lot of the red wall seats when the problem is demographic. The young keep leaving and going where there are more opportunities. But surely this in part helps explain the shift to the blues, too, as the oldies are more likely to vote for them.

    But when writing my previous post I was thinking of this article I saw a couple of days ago, which seems to indicate those seats will receive preferential treatment.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50925321
    The demographic issue has been an absolute killer in the US. Municipalities find an ever greater amount is being spent on pensions, which means higher property taxes and lower spending on education, which means that people of working age move out... It's a vicious cycle.

    There's an inevitable wave of municipal bankruptcies coming. It's going to be absolutely brutal.

    We have less of an issue in the UK. But it's still very real.

    I think any government has far less room for manoeuvre than we tend to think. Economic conditions are pretty much top of the cycle right now, with essentially no unemployment.
    How many councils in the Uk still offer defined benefit pensions ?

    And assuming the correct answer is zero - when will be the inflection point when these pension commitments start to drop ?
    Most UK councils still offer defined benefit pensions.
    All English councils will offer the local government pension scheme which is defined benefits. There is no plausible alternative at the moment. Lgps is fully funded.
    I was curious about it and looked on their website. Members of that scheme only pay 2% of their salary each year into the pot :o
    What are you looking at? Sliding scale of 5.5% to 12.5% depending on salary..
    It’s a Ponzi scheme though.

    Zero private sector pensions operate that way.

    "Any longer"
  • Options
    TGOHF666 said:

    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Lavery has the tight ultra-marginal of Wansbeck to defend next time round.

    With a majority of 814
    I'm not sure how Boris will soak the "Red Wall" seats in cash.

    Sajid has already planned the second biggest fiscal loosening in the post-WW2 period (only beaten by the response to the GFC), and this is at the end of a long-running economic expansion.

    I don't mean to sound negative, but if it was easy to get Stoke-on-Trent moving, then it would have already happened.
    A fair point. I'm not even sure how more cash improves the lot of the red wall seats when the problem is demographic. The young keep leaving and going where there are more opportunities. But surely this in part helps explain the shift to the blues, too, as the oldies are more likely to vote for them.

    But when writing my previous post I was thinking of this article I saw a couple of days ago, which seems to indicate those seats will receive preferential treatment.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50925321
    The demographic issue has been an absolute killer in the US. Municipalities find an ever greater amount is being spent on pensions, which

    There's an inevitable wave of municipal bankruptcies coming. It's going to be absolutely brutal.

    We have less of an issue in the UK. But it's still very real.

    I think any government has far less room for manoeuvre than we tend to think. Economic conditions are pretty much top of the cycle right now, with essentially no unemployment.
    How many councils in the Uk still offer defined benefit pensions ?

    And assuming the correct answer is zero - when will be the inflection point when these pension commitments start to drop ?
    Most UK councils still offer defined benefit pensions.
    All English councils will offer the local government pension scheme which is defined benefits. There is no plausible alternative at the moment. Lgps is fully funded.
    I was curious about it and looked on their website. Members of that scheme only pay 2% of their salary each year into the pot :o
    What are you looking at? Sliding scale of 5.5% to 12.5% depending on salary..
    It’s a Ponzi scheme though.

    Zero private sector pensions operate that way.

    Total assets of £275 billion. The only weakness is the shortfalls falling on employer and not shared.

    https://lgpsboard.org/index.php/schemedata/scheme-annual-report
  • Options
    @RobD

    What kind of jobs are in the igps?

    Is it police, teachers​, etc?
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,536
    Good morning everybody. As you know, I have written an article on PB births, deaths and marriages and I have submitted it. Will the following people please see the details below and tell me if there is anything there you want redacted before it is published.

    @CasinoRoyale: Birth of daughter
    @isam: Birth of son

    @ExiledInScotland: Brother with oesophageal cancer died in hospice
    @FF43: Father died
    @Jonathan: Mother died.
    @MarqueeMark: Mother died
    @MikeL: Mother died
    @Sandpit: Mother in law died
    @Big_G_North_Wales: Business partner died (December 2018)

    @Floater: Son has a lump and kidney failure
    @malcolmg: Visit to A&E
    @NigelB: Parent with late stage Alzheimers
    @OldKingCole: Lumbar stenosis and wife with gall-bladder problems. Both have responded to treatment. A grandchild is beginning to consider university
    @RobinWiggs: Wife with breast cancer
    @Stocky: Spinal cord injury (skiing) requiring neck brace and physio and has responded to prolonged treatment.
    @twistedfirestopper3: Wife with breast cancer

    @BigRich: Got engaged and then married to a New Zealand woman
    @Dura_ace: Lost driving licence but did 102km/h on a bicycle descending the Col du Simplon.
    @Foxy: Son has gained financial independence from parents
    @Gallowgate: Law conversion course [location redacted]
    @Sunil_Prasannan: Mum won Redbridge in Bloom for her front garden.
    @TheScreamingEagles: Thought he had stomach cancer but did not
    @Theuniondivvie: Will do welding class in 2020
    @Tissue_Price: Was elected as MP

    @HYUFD , I couldn't work out the details of your father's illness so I left your entry out: if you want it reinserted please say. I also omitted the speculation that @Sean_F is the person doing a military history degree, because I couldn't confirm it.

  • Options

    @RobD

    What kind of jobs are in the igps?

    Is it police, teachers​, etc?

    Local government staff and staff carrying out work on behalf of local authority who have been transferred out of the council but terms and conditions protected and their new employer admitted into the scheme.

    Teachers have their own pension scheme as do police. Neither are funded like the LGPS which is a properly ran and funded scheme.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,620
    edited December 2019
    TGOHF666 said:

    It’s a Ponzi scheme though.

    Zero private sector pensions operate that way.

    Very few new private sector pensions operate that way. But there are still trillions of dollars of final salary pensions in the US and hundreds of billions in the UK.

    In fact, if you look at the statistics, around a third of people in work are currently members of defined benefits schemes.

    See: https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/workplacepensions/bulletins/annualsurveyofhoursandearningspensiontables/2018provisionaland2017revisedresults
This discussion has been closed.