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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Brexit’s Hotel California

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  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    kinabalu said:

    ydoethur said:

    Good point, Iain Duncan Smith comes under that heading as well.

    Yes, I would imagine that even his wife calls him Iain Duncan Smith. Almost impossible to imagine otherwise.
    Well, I know several people who call him ‘that utter twat,’ but I suppose that’s a bit different.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,233
    MattW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    What more favourable conditions do they need? Easy answer - a proper Labour split, not the feeble and fleeting one that Berger tried to lead. If Labour start standing candidates against each other, as the Liberals did, that is when the Liberal Democrats stand a realistic chance of coming through the middle. Not forgetting their disappointing performance in terms of seats, they greatly expanded their voter base and moved back into second place in a large number of seats.

    Can it happen? A little more of this awfulness and yes, it is possible.

    Is it likely? No, because Labour prize loyalty over principles.

    The LibDems have performed best when the was a centrist Labour leader like Blair.
    Fleas perform best on a dog. But they will not turn into another dog.

    The Liberal Democrats need to stand on their own feet and win votes in their own right.
    The LibDems had a poor election. They made two big, unforced errors. Firstly, they went with the revoke policy. They already had impeccable pro-EU credentials, so all it did was scare off people who were anything less than ultra-Remainers. Secondly, what was with all that Jo Swinson On Every Leaflet? If she was incredibly popular, it would be one thing... But she wasn't.

    Both these errors fall at the feet of Jo Swinson. Now the LibDems need to find a competent leader.
    I think that Dominic Frisby in his extra verse of the Brexit Song caught Jo Swinson as she turned out well.

    "Jo Swinson …. LOL"
    On the other hand...

    If you asked the LibDems on the morning after their defeat in 2015 whether they'd be happy with getting to 11.5% in 2019, increasing their seat total to eleven and making substantial progress in the intervening local elections, then, while they wouldn't have bitten your hand off, they would probably have said that was what they were hoping to achieve.

    My guess is that - irrespective of who their leader is - the LibDems will continue to make progress in the local elections in the next five years. The Conservatives are still pretty near their high watermark for local election performance, and slippage is probably inevitable. Brexit is unlikely to be completely smooth sailing. There may very well be a recession. And the Labour Party is unlikely to elect a leader quite as polarising as Jeremy Corbyn.

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231

    Lewis Hamilton is always Lewis Hamilton
    Tiger Woods is nearly always Tiger Woods
    Yet Federer for instance is nearly always Federer

    Is it a slight bias to name full names when ethnic minorities involved? Also generally friendly people tend to just get their surname and people who are more self centred get the full name ? Also very personable people get their first name , reasonably personable people get their surname and less friendly ones full name?

    There's a lot to chew over here. My initial instinct is no, you're reaching a bit, but let me give it due consideration before going to press on that.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,729
    rcs1000 said:

    MattW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    What more favourable conditions do they need? Easy answer - a proper Labour split, not the feeble and fleeting one that Berger tried to lead. If Labour start standing candidates against each other, as the Liberals did, that is when the Liberal Democrats stand a realistic chance of coming through the middle. Not forgetting their disappointing performance in terms of seats, they greatly expanded their voter base and moved back into second place in a large number of seats.

    Can it happen? A little more of this awfulness and yes, it is possible.

    Is it likely? No, because Labour prize loyalty over principles.

    The LibDems have performed best when the was a centrist Labour leader like Blair.
    Fleas perform best on a dog. But they will not turn into another dog.

    The Liberal Democrats need to stand on their own feet and win votes in their own right.
    The LibDems had a poor election. They made two big, unforced errors. Firstly, they went with the revoke policy. They already had impeccable pro-EU credentials, so all it did was scare off people who were anything less than ultra-Remainers. Secondly, what was with all that Jo Swinson On Every Leaflet? If she was incredibly popular, it would be one thing... But she wasn't.

    Both these errors fall at the feet of Jo Swinson. Now the LibDems need to find a competent leader.
    I think that Dominic Frisby in his extra verse of the Brexit Song caught Jo Swinson as she turned out well.

    "Jo Swinson …. LOL"
    On the other hand...

    If you asked the LibDems on the morning after their defeat in 2015 whether they'd be happy with getting to 11.5% in 2019, increasing their seat total to eleven and making substantial progress in the intervening local elections, then, while they wouldn't have bitten your hand off, they would probably have said that was what they were hoping to achieve.

    My guess is that - irrespective of who their leader is - the LibDems will continue to make progress in the local elections in the next five years. The Conservatives are still pretty near their high watermark for local election performance, and slippage is probably inevitable. Brexit is unlikely to be completely smooth sailing. There may very well be a recession. And the Labour Party is unlikely to elect a leader quite as polarising as Jeremy Corbyn.

    We can only hope Labour do.. Its more than a 50:50 shot one would think
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,233

    Lewis Hamilton is always Lewis Hamilton
    Tiger Woods is nearly always Tiger Woods
    Yet Federer for instance is nearly always Federer

    Is it a slight bias to name full names when ethnic minorities involved? Also generally friendly people tend to just get their surname and people who are more self centred get the full name ? Also very personable people get their first name , reasonably personable people get their surname and less friendly ones full name?

    Isn't that because Tiger Woods is simply such an awesome name?

    May was May. Obama was Obama. But Johnson is almost always Boris Johnson.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,254
    rcs1000 said:

    MattW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    What more favourable conditions do they need? Easy answer - a proper Labour split, not the feeble and fleeting one that Berger tried to lead. If Labour start standing candidates against each other, as the Liberals did, that is when the Liberal Democrats stand a realistic chance of coming through the middle. Not forgetting their disappointing performance in terms of seats, they greatly expanded their voter base and moved back into second place in a large number of seats.

    Can it happen? A little more of this awfulness and yes, it is possible.

    Is it likely? No, because Labour prize loyalty over principles.

    The LibDems have performed best when the was a centrist Labour leader like Blair.
    Fleas perform best on a dog. But they will not turn into another dog.

    The Liberal Democrats need to stand on their own feet and win votes in their own right.
    The LibDems had a poor election. They made two big, unforced errors. Firstly, they went with the revoke policy. They already had impeccable pro-EU credentials, so all it did was scare off people who were anything less than ultra-Remainers. Secondly, what was with all that Jo Swinson On Every Leaflet? If she was incredibly popular, it would be one thing... But she wasn't.

    Both these errors fall at the feet of Jo Swinson. Now the LibDems need to find a competent leader.
    I think that Dominic Frisby in his extra verse of the Brexit Song caught Jo Swinson as she turned out well.

    "Jo Swinson …. LOL"
    On the other hand...

    If you asked the LibDems on the morning after their defeat in 2015 whether they'd be happy with getting to 11.5% in 2019, increasing their seat total to eleven and making substantial progress in the intervening local elections, then, while they wouldn't have bitten your hand off, they would probably have said that was what they were hoping to achieve.

    My guess is that - irrespective of who their leader is - the LibDems will continue to make progress in the local elections in the next five years. The Conservatives are still pretty near their high watermark for local election performance, and slippage is probably inevitable. Brexit is unlikely to be completely smooth sailing. There may very well be a recession. And the Labour Party is unlikely to elect a leader quite as polarising as Jeremy Corbyn.

    It's a view :wink:

    One of the things that are currently in dispute is whether they should be pursuing a "core vote" or a "not core vote" strategy.
  • This thread has exited the EU

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231
    ydoethur said:

    Priti Patel and Sajid Javid usually get the full name. But then they are quite common names.

    They do and I think the reasons are fairly clear in both cases - along the lines you mention but also that the surnames sound both abrupt AND non anglo. Getting into interesting territory now. If one were to do the PHD, this would be where a lot of the marks would be earned.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231

    Laurence Llewelyn Bowen.

    Yes and that's an easy one. It's because the name really flows. It's a pleasure to say - thus one would not want to limit the pleasure by truncating in any way.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited December 2019
    ..
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,361

    Female politician known by her first name...

    Ruthie

    Maggie .. also known by lefties by her last name Thatcher, or for the really thick Fatcher.
    milk snatcher you mean
This discussion has been closed.