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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Brexit’s Hotel California

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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,282

    Good piece, but I think it overstates the extent to which the EU's position is a hardball negotiating stance and understates the extent to which they actually mean it: What the British want to do is to get full market access, but undercut their EU neighbours on environmental and labour standards.

    The EU don't want this, not only because they can probably get a better deal by standing firm, but because they *don't have cornflakes for brains*.

    Many EU states and MEPs, and certainly a blocking majority of each, simply don't want to get undercut in their own markets by a developed country playing regulatory arbitrage games. They aren't obliged to sign a deal that allows this, so they won't. No deal is better than a bad deal, as the philosopher once said.

    This is a really widespread misconception in the UK and goes to the heart of the whole case for Brexit, so it's not hard to see how everything goes pear-shaped when it comes up against a deadline.

    That's correct.
    Boris and Cummings would have taken us out without a deal in October if they hadn't been stopped. They will now do it next year since there's nobody to stop them. The absolute best we can get is a thin part-deal.
    In five years time the Tory government will be more unpopular than Corbyn and it will be difficult to find anybody who will admit to having voted Leave.
    Except that the government generally and Bozo specifically have made a lot of promises to industry and northern voters and the like that they’ll protect their access.

    His instinct when faced with a difficult choice will be to put it off rather than make one brave decision or the other (indeed that goes for politics generally), hence some sort of extended transition (which won’t be called that) seems most likely.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,929
    BT Sport 3 are showing the Big Bash League game in Sydney, and it is danger of being abandoned as a smoke cloud from the fires is about to engulf the ground...
  • Options
    Betting related post.

    The frontrunner in the race to succeed Jeremy Corbyn has appointed a self-proclaimed Stalinist to organise her campaign for the leadership.

    Rebecca Long Bailey, the shadow business secretary, has turned to Alex Halligan, who was instrumental in Mr Corbyn’s successful leadership campaign in 2015.

    Her move is understood to have infuriated the shadow chancellor John McDonnell. Mr McDonnell expressed concern, Mr Halligan attempted to confront him. Now the shadow chancellor, who had been expected to back Ms Long Bailey, 40, is understood to have made a “conscious decision to have no involvement in the leadership election” even though she is widely seen as his protégée.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/stalinist-takes-charge-of-rebecca-long-baileys-labour-leadership-campaign-q8pkp9qc6
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    kinabalu said:

    Jonathan said:

    Brexit has its own vocabulary, diverge from the one true path and you are labelled a remoaner. More generally when a right winger doesn’t like how you apply free speech, you get accused of not being patriotic or moral. Very PC, just of a different hue.

    Yes, there is a new PC in town.

    Example: I used to feel relaxed about calling people who are thick and racist "thick and racist".

    Would be very wary of that now. They'd scream abuse and play the "elitist" card to shut me up.

    It's not healthy for debate. If you suppress things they come back to bite you hard one day.
    so you felt that abusing people who didn't have the advantage of your education was a good idea ?

    I can see where that might cause problems.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,929

    Betting related post.

    The frontrunner in the race to succeed Jeremy Corbyn has appointed a self-proclaimed Stalinist to organise her campaign for the leadership.

    Rebecca Long Bailey, the shadow business secretary, has turned to Alex Halligan, who was instrumental in Mr Corbyn’s successful leadership campaign in 2015.

    Her move is understood to have infuriated the shadow chancellor John McDonnell. Mr McDonnell expressed concern, Mr Halligan attempted to confront him. Now the shadow chancellor, who had been expected to back Ms Long Bailey, 40, is understood to have made a “conscious decision to have no involvement in the leadership election” even though she is widely seen as his protégée.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/stalinist-takes-charge-of-rebecca-long-baileys-labour-leadership-campaign-q8pkp9qc6

    Maybe why Angela Rayner has come in from 100s to 16s on Betfair. The 50s with Ladbrokes and Coral has gone
  • Options
    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,352

    Betting related post.

    The frontrunner in the race to succeed Jeremy Corbyn has appointed a self-proclaimed Stalinist to organise her campaign for the leadership.

    Rebecca Long Bailey, the shadow business secretary, has turned to Alex Halligan, who was instrumental in Mr Corbyn’s successful leadership campaign in 2015.

    Her move is understood to have infuriated the shadow chancellor John McDonnell. Mr McDonnell expressed concern, Mr Halligan attempted to confront him. Now the shadow chancellor, who had been expected to back Ms Long Bailey, 40, is understood to have made a “conscious decision to have no involvement in the leadership election” even though she is widely seen as his protégée.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/stalinist-takes-charge-of-rebecca-long-baileys-labour-leadership-campaign-q8pkp9qc6

    and so the bunfight continues. Take your seats , enjoy the fun for free
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,205

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:


    While the government can pursue an even more redistributive policy on London and the South East, that may well not play well to our export strengths.

    It is quite telling that Brexiteers are fond of the phrase "Singapore on Thames", but I note that it is never "Singapore on Trent" or "Singapore on Mersey".
    across the world globalisation is on ice. Its gone as far as it piece of the Pacific.
    I am back to my original position of 2016-17, not too bot own Brexit dividend.

    Others are going to have to look after themselves, but that is what they voted for, and I am quite content with them having that agency.
    well that's two of us then

    I voted for Brexit to change the direction of British politics Ive nothing much against the EU and could have been persuaded to vote Remain, But nobody could advance a decent reason to do so,
    We'll soon be able to sweep away the EU's red tape and enjoy cheaper food with a new deal with the USA.
    ""The consumer's being duped," Mauer said, adding that the meat may be more likely to contain feces, sex organs, toenails, bladders and unwanted hair. "
    https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/474789-food-inspectors-warn-of-mystery-pork-under-new-meat-inspection?fbclid=IwAR2CODy5OK5S6jO7LSOaMMJxuRtNvPCxgfjuvQ6GlQ2YtP4vEa_353ZRRys
    LOL

    what nonsense. Food has always has contamination issues. Did being in the EU stop contamination in dutch eggs, horse meat being sold as beef chemical contamination in lettuce ? Or in our own case BSE, salmonella eggs or foot and mouth ?

    Two tblocks spinning their regulations doesn't stop food scares.

    As Ive pointed out to my wife my kids could eat US chicken every day for the rest of their lives and theyd still swallow less cklorine than the 10 years she took them to swimming club.

    A sense of proportion needs to return to these debates.
    And as you well know, it is not the chlorine which is the issue but the underlying poor animal husbandry of the chicken, one reason why the US has a much greater incidence of diseases like salmonella than occur in Europe, diseases which can cause serious harm to the vulnerable.

    But you don’t care about that just so long as you can stick your tongue out at those pointing out these inconvenient facts.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,225

    so you felt that abusing people who didn't have the advantage of your education was a good idea ?

    I can see where that might cause problems.

    See what I mean?
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,991
    isam said:

    Betting related post.

    The frontrunner in the race to succeed Jeremy Corbyn has appointed a self-proclaimed Stalinist to organise her campaign for the leadership.

    Rebecca Long Bailey, the shadow business secretary, has turned to Alex Halligan, who was instrumental in Mr Corbyn’s successful leadership campaign in 2015.

    Her move is understood to have infuriated the shadow chancellor John McDonnell. Mr McDonnell expressed concern, Mr Halligan attempted to confront him. Now the shadow chancellor, who had been expected to back Ms Long Bailey, 40, is understood to have made a “conscious decision to have no involvement in the leadership election” even though she is widely seen as his protégée.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/stalinist-takes-charge-of-rebecca-long-baileys-labour-leadership-campaign-q8pkp9qc6

    Maybe why Angela Rayner has come in from 100s to 16s on Betfair. The 50s with Ladbrokes and Coral has gone
    That was a superb tip last night, sadly I only read it this morning. Maybe 16/1 is still value but Rayner would have to betray her best friend to run.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,205
    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    .

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:


    Which sacred cows do you see heading to the abbatoir?

    restrictions on free speech, the PC agenda, jobs for the lefty boys in quangos ( they'll all now be righty boys ). London uber alles ( though it will still be important ), immigration.

    That's just immediate reaction, thoigh Im sure there will be lots of things I don't see as issues which will upset people.

    What will we be able to say and do in 10 years that we can’t now thanks to the PC agenda being swept away?

    Jobs for the boys is just standard fare. As for London, the government is not going to harm its cash cow. It will just borrow more. Immigration will undoubtedly fall for many reasons.

    For me, the biggest change is likely to be the UK no longer existing.

    Rolling back PC is not going to happen. Society has moved on. Even BoZo is unlikely to call his new gay or BME MPs "Tank topped bum boys" or "Flag waving picanninies", not to their faces anyway.
    like every time .
    Nah.


    What would happen to a Premier League football club that didn't support Pride?
    Probably the same as a club that didn't embroidered poppies on its shirts in November. Virtue signalling is policed by social media nowadays.
    Yes, they aren't independently supporting Pride, I would say they were shamed into it. It is a shame that diversity has become an industry, I doubt it really helps the cause that much, as everything is reduced to a slogan
    No, I think it is genuine, at least at Leicester City. We have a very diverse crowd. More WWC than the city in general, but things are changing. A few rows in front of me there is a headscarfed family, completely unmarked upon. Not something I would have expected twenty years ago.

    While clearly @Alanbrooke and a few others yearn for a return of the casual racism, homophobia and misogyny of the Seventies as one of their Brexit goals, I cannot see it myself. Those days are gone.
    Are they? I would like to think so. But the return of anti-semitism in public discourse has rather put paid to the idea that gains made in previous years or decades cannot be reversed if there is a government in power which no longer values these gains or is prepared to sacrifice them for something else.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,929
    edited December 2019
    isam said:

    BT Sport 3 are showing the Big Bash League game in Sydney, and it is danger of being abandoned as a smoke cloud from the fires is about to engulf the ground...

    Incredible scenes, quite scary. Doubt the match will be completed, Duckworth Lewis will have to adjudicate
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,225
    IanB2 said:

    Except that the government generally and Bozo specifically have made a lot of promises to industry and northern voters and the like that they’ll protect their access.

    His instinct when faced with a difficult choice will be to put it off rather than make one brave decision or the other (indeed that goes for politics generally), hence some sort of extended transition (which won’t be called that) seems most likely.

    Yes, I think so. With the big majority and the scope for fudge - calling things that are really one thing another thing - I do expect something along these lines.

    There will NOT be a No Deal. I disagree with the header on this.

    It would be plain dumb. It is a Not Happening event, just as it always was from the very start of this saga.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,981

    eek said:

    nunu2 said:
    Well, if Evan Scrimshaw says so.....game over.

    One possible teeny tiny flaw in his logic.....it appears his model is based on current levels of support, and as we all know, there's a lot of water to flow under the Holyrood Bridge before the actual elections....
    Boris will need to throw both more money at Scotland and get people to constantly point out how much worse things delegated there are compared to South of the border
    Nah

    call the SNP out on their dismal record of running Scotland
    The Barnett forumula means that if more money is spent up North, Scotland needs to be given even more money. Boris needs to emphasis this - we have given Scotland another £x m / x bn pounds.

    Then it's just a matter as we both say that the SNP's mistakes need to be called out continually.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    Cyclefree said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:


    While the government can pursue an even more redistributive policy on London and the South East, that may well not play well to our export strengths.

    It is quite telling that Brexiteers are fond of the phrase "Singapore on Thames", but I note that it is never "Singapore on Trent" or "Singapore on Mersey".
    across the world globalisation is on ice. Its gone as far as it piece of the Pacific.
    I am back to my original position of 2016-17, not too bot own Brexit dividend.

    Others are going to have to look after themselves, but that is what they voted for, and I am quite content with them having that agency.
    well that's two of us then
    do so,
    We'll soon be able to sweep away the y-environment/474789-food-inspectors-warn-of-mystery-pork-under-new-meat-inspection?fbclid=IwAR2CODy5OK5S6jO7LSOaMMJxuRtNvPCxgfjuvQ6GlQ2YtP4vEa_353ZRRys
    LOL

    what nonsense. Food has always has contamination issues. Did being in the EU stop contamination in dutch eggs, horse meat being sold as beef chemical contamination in lettuce ? Or in our own case BSE, salmonella eggs or foot and mouth ?

    Two tblocks spinning their regulations doesn't stop food scares.

    As Ive pointed out to my wife my kids could eat US chicken every day for the rest of their lives and theyd still swallow less cklorine than the 10 years she took them to swimming club.

    A sense of proportion needs to return to these debates.
    And as you well know, it is not the chlorine which is the issue but the underlying poor animal husbandry of the chicken, one reason why the US has a much greater incidence of diseases like salmonella than occur in Europe, diseases which can cause serious harm to the vulnerable.

    But you don’t care about that just so long as you can stick your tongue out at those pointing out these inconvenient facts.
    If we care that much about animal well being why do we lump husbandry issues on our farmers but then permit products with much lower standards in from E Europe ? I struggle to see where your accusation on not caring for animals comes from, I come from a farming background and have always respected livestaock welfare.

    As for the inconvenient facts, the facts are that no system is perfect and pretending, as you appear to wish, that the EU system is faultless is just plain daft. Given the litigious nature of the USA their system has its own safeguards, theyre just different.
  • Options
    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,975
    edited December 2019

    isam said:

    Betting related post.

    The frontrunner in the race to succeed Jeremy Corbyn has appointed a self-proclaimed Stalinist to organise her campaign for the leadership.

    Rebecca Long Bailey, the shadow business secretary, has turned to Alex Halligan, who was instrumental in Mr Corbyn’s successful leadership campaign in 2015.

    Her move is understood to have infuriated the shadow chancellor John McDonnell. Mr McDonnell expressed concern, Mr Halligan attempted to confront him. Now the shadow chancellor, who had been expected to back Ms Long Bailey, 40, is understood to have made a “conscious decision to have no involvement in the leadership election” even though she is widely seen as his protégée.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/stalinist-takes-charge-of-rebecca-long-baileys-labour-leadership-campaign-q8pkp9qc6

    Maybe why Angela Rayner has come in from 100s to 16s on Betfair. The 50s with Ladbrokes and Coral has gone
    That was a superb tip last night, sadly I only read it this morning. Maybe 16/1 is still value but Rayner would have to betray her best friend to run.
    Blair Brown. Often forgotten that Major and Lamont were the closest of allies before 1992. It’s not without precedent.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,282
    Anyhow the bet I placed on there being no Welsh Independence referendum by the end of 2019 will soon pay out. Got 1.14 on BFE in the aftermath of the 2016 referendum, not a bad guaranteed return over three years.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    kinabalu said:

    so you felt that abusing people who didn't have the advantage of your education was a good idea ?

    I can see where that might cause problems.

    See what I mean?
    No
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125

    Betting related post.

    The frontrunner in the race to succeed Jeremy Corbyn has appointed a self-proclaimed Stalinist to organise her campaign for the leadership.

    Rebecca Long Bailey, the shadow business secretary, has turned to Alex Halligan, who was instrumental in Mr Corbyn’s successful leadership campaign in 2015.

    Her move is understood to have infuriated the shadow chancellor John McDonnell. Mr McDonnell expressed concern, Mr Halligan attempted to confront him. Now the shadow chancellor, who had been expected to back Ms Long Bailey, 40, is understood to have made a “conscious decision to have no involvement in the leadership election” even though she is widely seen as his protégée.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/stalinist-takes-charge-of-rebecca-long-baileys-labour-leadership-campaign-q8pkp9qc6

    You have to be a special kind of pillock to self-proclaim yourself a Stalinist in 21st century British politics.
  • Options

    Betting related post.

    The frontrunner in the race to succeed Jeremy Corbyn has appointed a self-proclaimed Stalinist to organise her campaign for the leadership.

    Rebecca Long Bailey, the shadow business secretary, has turned to Alex Halligan, who was instrumental in Mr Corbyn’s successful leadership campaign in 2015.

    Her move is understood to have infuriated the shadow chancellor John McDonnell. Mr McDonnell expressed concern, Mr Halligan attempted to confront him. Now the shadow chancellor, who had been expected to back Ms Long Bailey, 40, is understood to have made a “conscious decision to have no involvement in the leadership election” even though she is widely seen as his protégée.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/stalinist-takes-charge-of-rebecca-long-baileys-labour-leadership-campaign-q8pkp9qc6

    and so the bunfight continues. Take your seats , enjoy the fun for free
    A sad state of affairs when a tankie isn’t welcome in Labour.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,225
    Quick betting question -

    Betfair is still trading the "Meaningful Vote To Pass In 2019?" market and has No as the strong fav.

    Was yesterday's not it then?
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,225

    No

    You do!
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,630

    Foxy said:

    While clearly @Alanbrooke and a few others yearn for a return of the casual racism, homophobia and misogyny of the Seventies as one of their Brexit goals, I cannot see it myself. Those days are gone.

    We just had an election that resulted in the gayest parliament in the world. Look at the great offices of state and tell me this is not representative, maybe even over-representative, of multicultural Britain. Even more than is seen in the stands of LCFC. The Government now has MPs from parts of the country that haven't seen a Tory for decades. Many decades. And unlike Labour, we elect our leader on ability, not because it has to show it has overcome its innate misogyny.

    We have a very twenty-first century Govt., listening to and implementing what its people want.

    So as it is the season of goodwill, less of the causal stupidity, hey?
    I agree. While there may be some desire to roll back cultural change by Brexit voters, the government that they elected shows how defeated that goal is even before it starts. PC is so triumphant that the Tories have decided to own it.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    kinabalu said:

    No

    You do!
    Oh no I don't !

    ( your move. panto season )
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750

    On topic, very good article by @david_herdson - neither side has learned anything about the other.

    That was a key argument of why I wanted to leave in the first place. I came to believe the cost of doing so was not worth it but fundamentally the sides just dint getveach other and that was abd remains a recipe for disaster.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,238

    isam said:

    Betting related post.

    The frontrunner in the race to succeed Jeremy Corbyn has appointed a self-proclaimed Stalinist to organise her campaign for the leadership.

    Rebecca Long Bailey, the shadow business secretary, has turned to Alex Halligan, who was instrumental in Mr Corbyn’s successful leadership campaign in 2015.

    Her move is understood to have infuriated the shadow chancellor John McDonnell. Mr McDonnell expressed concern, Mr Halligan attempted to confront him. Now the shadow chancellor, who had been expected to back Ms Long Bailey, 40, is understood to have made a “conscious decision to have no involvement in the leadership election” even though she is widely seen as his protégée.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/stalinist-takes-charge-of-rebecca-long-baileys-labour-leadership-campaign-q8pkp9qc6

    Maybe why Angela Rayner has come in from 100s to 16s on Betfair. The 50s with Ladbrokes and Coral has gone
    That was a superb tip last night, sadly I only read it this morning. Maybe 16/1 is still value but Rayner would have to betray her best friend to run.
    David Miliband, Gordon Brown, R A Butler and Austen Chamberlain are on the line. They say this shouldn’t be considered a deal-breaker...
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750

    Betting related post.

    The frontrunner in the race to succeed Jeremy Corbyn has appointed a self-proclaimed Stalinist to organise her campaign for the leadership.

    Rebecca Long Bailey, the shadow business secretary, has turned to Alex Halligan, who was instrumental in Mr Corbyn’s successful leadership campaign in 2015.

    Her move is understood to have infuriated the shadow chancellor John McDonnell. Mr McDonnell expressed concern, Mr Halligan attempted to confront him. Now the shadow chancellor, who had been expected to back Ms Long Bailey, 40, is understood to have made a “conscious decision to have no involvement in the leadership election” even though she is widely seen as his protégée.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/stalinist-takes-charge-of-rebecca-long-baileys-labour-leadership-campaign-q8pkp9qc6

    How could a self proclaimed stalinist not be persona non grata among any decent people?
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,630

    isam said:

    Betting related post.

    The frontrunner in the race to succeed Jeremy Corbyn has appointed a self-proclaimed Stalinist to organise her campaign for the leadership.

    Rebecca Long Bailey, the shadow business secretary, has turned to Alex Halligan, who was instrumental in Mr Corbyn’s successful leadership campaign in 2015.

    Her move is understood to have infuriated the shadow chancellor John McDonnell. Mr McDonnell expressed concern, Mr Halligan attempted to confront him. Now the shadow chancellor, who had been expected to back Ms Long Bailey, 40, is understood to have made a “conscious decision to have no involvement in the leadership election” even though she is widely seen as his protégée.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/stalinist-takes-charge-of-rebecca-long-baileys-labour-leadership-campaign-q8pkp9qc6

    Maybe why Angela Rayner has come in from 100s to 16s on Betfair. The 50s with Ladbrokes and Coral has gone
    That was a superb tip last night, sadly I only read it this morning. Maybe 16/1 is still value but Rayner would have to betray her best friend to run.
    Not necessarily. RLB has not declared yet, has she?

    We do not yet know what the result of the flatmates pact is yet. Perhaps it is Rayner to lead the ticket.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    ydoethur said:

    isam said:

    Betting related post.

    The frontrunner in the race to succeed Jeremy Corbyn has appointed a self-proclaimed Stalinist to organise her campaign for the leadership.

    Rebecca Long Bailey, the shadow business secretary, has turned to Alex Halligan, who was instrumental in Mr Corbyn’s successful leadership campaign in 2015.

    Her move is understood to have infuriated the shadow chancellor John McDonnell. Mr McDonnell expressed concern, Mr Halligan attempted to confront him. Now the shadow chancellor, who had been expected to back Ms Long Bailey, 40, is understood to have made a “conscious decision to have no involvement in the leadership election” even though she is widely seen as his protégée.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/stalinist-takes-charge-of-rebecca-long-baileys-labour-leadership-campaign-q8pkp9qc6

    Maybe why Angela Rayner has come in from 100s to 16s on Betfair. The 50s with Ladbrokes and Coral has gone
    That was a superb tip last night, sadly I only read it this morning. Maybe 16/1 is still value but Rayner would have to betray her best friend to run.
    David Miliband, Gordon Brown, R A Butler and Austen Chamberlain are on the line. They say this shouldn’t be considered a deal-breaker...
    It shouldn't. Ed M did the right thing if he thought he was better and that David could not overcome him proves he was right.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,974
    MattW said:

    speedy2 said:

    "could benefit by asking itselves why support for independence in Scotland, for example, remains so high – and by trying to answer the question as honestly as possible."

    Well America wanted independence from the UK, the American South wanted independence from America, Ireland wanted independence from the UK, Northern Ireland wanted independence from Ireland, the UK wants independence from the EU, Scotland wants independence from the UK, Aberdeen wants independence from Scotland, the North wants more powers from the South, London wants to take powers from the rest of the UK, even Western Canada and East Canada want more power from each other over each other.

    It's an Anglosaxon-Britanic tradition called fierce individualism.

    Nice list.

    Except that Scotland does NOT want independence from the UK.

    :-)
    Bollox
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    malcolmg said:

    MattW said:

    speedy2 said:

    "could benefit by asking itselves why support for independence in Scotland, for example, remains so high – and by trying to answer the question as honestly as possible."

    Well America wanted independence from the UK, the American South wanted independence from America, Ireland wanted independence from the UK, Northern Ireland wanted independence from Ireland, the UK wants independence from the EU, Scotland wants independence from the UK, Aberdeen wants independence from Scotland, the North wants more powers from the South, London wants to take powers from the rest of the UK, even Western Canada and East Canada want more power from each other over each other.

    It's an Anglosaxon-Britanic tradition called fierce individualism.

    Nice list.

    Except that Scotland does NOT want independence from the UK.

    :-)
    Bollox
    It's about 50/50 .
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,974

    eek said:

    nunu2 said:
    Well, if Evan Scrimshaw says so.....game over.

    One possible teeny tiny flaw in his logic.....it appears his model is based on current levels of support, and as we all know, there's a lot of water to flow under the Holyrood Bridge before the actual elections....
    Boris will need to throw both more money at Scotland and get people to constantly point out how much worse things delegated there are compared to South of the border
    Nah

    call the SNP out on their dismal record of running Scotland
    Rubbish Alan, they are doing a better job than any of the other parties would do. Given we are controlled by Westminster and only get pocket money , it is a bit rich to blame Westminster failure on the SNP.
    They are doing a reasonable job of mitigating some of the Tory excesses, far from perfect but streets ahead of the alternatives.
  • Options
    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,975
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    isam said:

    Betting related post.

    The frontrunner in the race to succeed Jeremy Corbyn has appointed a self-proclaimed Stalinist to organise her campaign for the leadership.

    Rebecca Long Bailey, the shadow business secretary, has turned to Alex Halligan, who was instrumental in Mr Corbyn’s successful leadership campaign in 2015.

    Her move is understood to have infuriated the shadow chancellor John McDonnell. Mr McDonnell expressed concern, Mr Halligan attempted to confront him. Now the shadow chancellor, who had been expected to back Ms Long Bailey, 40, is understood to have made a “conscious decision to have no involvement in the leadership election” even though she is widely seen as his protégée.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/stalinist-takes-charge-of-rebecca-long-baileys-labour-leadership-campaign-q8pkp9qc6

    Maybe why Angela Rayner has come in from 100s to 16s on Betfair. The 50s with Ladbrokes and Coral has gone
    That was a superb tip last night, sadly I only read it this morning. Maybe 16/1 is still value but Rayner would have to betray her best friend to run.
    David Miliband, Gordon Brown, R A Butler and Austen Chamberlain are on the line. They say this shouldn’t be considered a deal-breaker...
    It shouldn't. Ed M did the right thing if he thought he was better and that David could not overcome him proves he was right.
    Though David M won the membership. In fact voting for him was my last act as a Labour Party member.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,225

    Oh no I don't !

    ( your move. panto season )

    But I have no move. You win. That's my exact point - now do you see?
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    malcolmg said:

    eek said:

    nunu2 said:
    Well, if Evan Scrimshaw says so.....game over.

    One possible teeny tiny flaw in his logic.....it appears his model is based on current levels of support, and as we all know, there's a lot of water to flow under the Holyrood Bridge before the actual elections....
    Boris will need to throw both more money at Scotland and get people to constantly point out how much worse things delegated there are compared to South of the border
    Nah

    call the SNP out on their dismal record of running Scotland
    Rubbish Alan, they are doing a better job than any of the other parties would do. Given we are controlled by Westminster and only get pocket money , it is a bit rich to blame Westminster failure on the SNP.
    They are doing a reasonable job of mitigating some of the Tory excesses, far from perfect but streets ahead of the alternatives.
    happy Xmas malc, hope you have a great 2020

    time to put your feet up and plant some turnips :smile:
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,974

    nunu2 said:
    Well, if Evan Scrimshaw says so.....game over.

    One possible teeny tiny flaw in his logic.....it appears his model is based on current levels of support, and as we all know, there's a lot of water to flow under the Holyrood Bridge before the actual elections....
    LOL, Toom Tabard has fingers and toes crossed for bad things to happen to Scotland. Emigrants they are so bitter and twisted.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    kinabalu said:

    Oh no I don't !

    ( your move. panto season )

    But I have no move. You win. That's my exact point - now do you see?
    behind you behind you !
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    isam said:

    Betting related post.

    The frontrunner in the race to succeed Jeremy Corbyn has appointed a self-proclaimed Stalinist to organise her campaign for the leadership.

    Rebecca Long Bailey, the shadow business secretary, has turned to Alex Halligan, who was instrumental in Mr Corbyn’s successful leadership campaign in 2015.

    Her move is understood to have infuriated the shadow chancellor John McDonnell. Mr McDonnell expressed concern, Mr Halligan attempted to confront him. Now the shadow chancellor, who had been expected to back Ms Long Bailey, 40, is understood to have made a “conscious decision to have no involvement in the leadership election” even though she is widely seen as his protégée.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/stalinist-takes-charge-of-rebecca-long-baileys-labour-leadership-campaign-q8pkp9qc6

    Maybe why Angela Rayner has come in from 100s to 16s on Betfair. The 50s with Ladbrokes and Coral has gone
    That was a superb tip last night, sadly I only read it this morning. Maybe 16/1 is still value but Rayner would have to betray her best friend to run.
    David Miliband, Gordon Brown, R A Butler and Austen Chamberlain are on the line. They say this shouldn’t be considered a deal-breaker...
    It shouldn't. Ed M did the right thing if he thought he was better and that David could not overcome him proves he was right.
    Though David M won the membership. In fact voting for him was my last act as a Labour Party member.
    Yes he did, but the system they fought under was what it was and he lost. Its like how labour cannot seriously bemoan FPTP after their loss since they did not intend to change that system.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,974
    eek said:

    MattW said:

    speedy2 said:

    "could benefit by asking itselves why support for independence in Scotland, for example, remains so high – and by trying to answer the question as honestly as possible."

    Well America wanted independence from the UK, the American South wanted independence from America, Ireland wanted independence from the UK, Northern Ireland wanted independence from Ireland, the UK wants independence from the EU, Scotland wants independence from the UK, Aberdeen wants independence from Scotland, the North wants more powers from the South, London wants to take powers from the rest of the UK, even Western Canada and East Canada want more power from each other over each other.

    It's an Anglosaxon-Britanic tradition called fierce individualism.

    Nice list.

    Except that Scotland does NOT want independence from the UK.

    :-)
    But let's not ask them, just in case.
    At least once the question has been asked again the SNP will no longer be able to avoid answering questions on Education, NHS, Police, Ship building.
    More bollox from the M25, do you ask the same of the erchies running the UK ( including Scotland ).
  • Options
    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,352
    Have the £3 Tory/ Labour memberships done their job or will they be doing a service for Corbyn's successor?
  • Options
    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,352
    malcolmg said:

    eek said:

    nunu2 said:
    Well, if Evan Scrimshaw says so.....game over.

    One possible teeny tiny flaw in his logic.....it appears his model is based on current levels of support, and as we all know, there's a lot of water to flow under the Holyrood Bridge before the actual elections....
    Boris will need to throw both more money at Scotland and get people to constantly point out how much worse things delegated there are compared to South of the border
    Nah

    call the SNP out on their dismal record of running Scotland
    Rubbish Alan, they are doing a better job than any of the other parties would do. Given we are controlled by Westminster and only get pocket money , it is a bit rich to blame Westminster failure on the SNP.
    They are doing a reasonable job of mitigating some of the Tory excesses, far from perfect but streets ahead of the alternatives.
    There is no Scottish magic money Tree Malcy.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,974
    eek said:

    eek said:

    nunu2 said:
    Well, if Evan Scrimshaw says so.....game over.

    One possible teeny tiny flaw in his logic.....it appears his model is based on current levels of support, and as we all know, there's a lot of water to flow under the Holyrood Bridge before the actual elections....
    Boris will need to throw both more money at Scotland and get people to constantly point out how much worse things delegated there are compared to South of the border
    Nah

    call the SNP out on their dismal record of running Scotland
    The Barnett forumula means that if more money is spent up North, Scotland needs to be given even more money. Boris needs to emphasis this - we have given Scotland another £x m / x bn pounds.

    Then it's just a matter as we both say that the SNP's mistakes need to be called out continually.
    Utter crap , if you look over the last 30+ years we are in surplus of over 64 billion. We subsidise the loan junkies down south and fund their infrastructure.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,974

    malcolmg said:

    eek said:

    nunu2 said:
    Well, if Evan Scrimshaw says so.....game over.

    One possible teeny tiny flaw in his logic.....it appears his model is based on current levels of support, and as we all know, there's a lot of water to flow under the Holyrood Bridge before the actual elections....
    Boris will need to throw both more money at Scotland and get people to constantly point out how much worse things delegated there are compared to South of the border
    Nah

    call the SNP out on their dismal record of running Scotland
    Rubbish Alan, they are doing a better job than any of the other parties would do. Given we are controlled by Westminster and only get pocket money , it is a bit rich to blame Westminster failure on the SNP.
    They are doing a reasonable job of mitigating some of the Tory excesses, far from perfect but streets ahead of the alternatives.
    happy Xmas malc, hope you have a great 2020

    time to put your feet up and plant some turnips :smile:
    Same to you Alan and A Happy New Year. You may be right. I am going to do another year I think, my job is moving to Finance so I will go for another one and see after that. Still enjoy the challenge and working from home.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,238
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    isam said:

    Betting related post.

    The frontrunner in the race to succeed Jeremy Corbyn has appointed a self-proclaimed Stalinist to organise her campaign for the leadership.

    Rebecca Long Bailey, the shadow business secretary, has turned to Alex Halligan, who was instrumental in Mr Corbyn’s successful leadership campaign in 2015.

    Her move is understood to have infuriated the shadow chancellor John McDonnell. Mr McDonnell expressed concern, Mr Halligan attempted to confront him. Now the shadow chancellor, who had been expected to back Ms Long Bailey, 40, is understood to have made a “conscious decision to have no involvement in the leadership election” even though she is widely seen as his protégée.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/stalinist-takes-charge-of-rebecca-long-baileys-labour-leadership-campaign-q8pkp9qc6

    Maybe why Angela Rayner has come in from 100s to 16s on Betfair. The 50s with Ladbrokes and Coral has gone
    That was a superb tip last night, sadly I only read it this morning. Maybe 16/1 is still value but Rayner would have to betray her best friend to run.
    David Miliband, Gordon Brown, R A Butler and Austen Chamberlain are on the line. They say this shouldn’t be considered a deal-breaker...
    It shouldn't. Ed M did the right thing if he thought he was better and that David could not overcome him proves he was right.
    Though David M won the membership. In fact voting for him was my last act as a Labour Party member.
    Yes he did, but the system they fought under was what it was and he lost. Its like how labour cannot seriously bemoan FPTP after their loss since they did not intend to change that system.
    Did Unite back E Miliband or Balls? I’ve got a feeling it was Miliband.

    Miliband, Corbyn, Steve Walker - McCluskey sure knows how to pick winners...
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,974

    malcolmg said:

    eek said:

    nunu2 said:
    Well, if Evan Scrimshaw says so.....game over.

    One possible teeny tiny flaw in his logic.....it appears his model is based on current levels of support, and as we all know, there's a lot of water to flow under the Holyrood Bridge before the actual elections....
    Boris will need to throw both more money at Scotland and get people to constantly point out how much worse things delegated there are compared to South of the border
    Nah

    call the SNP out on their dismal record of running Scotland
    Rubbish Alan, they are doing a better job than any of the other parties would do. Given we are controlled by Westminster and only get pocket money , it is a bit rich to blame Westminster failure on the SNP.
    They are doing a reasonable job of mitigating some of the Tory excesses, far from perfect but streets ahead of the alternatives.
    There is no Scottish magic money Tree Malcy.
    We will be happy just spending our own money and not paying the interest on London loans.
  • Options
    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,352

    malcolmg said:

    eek said:

    nunu2 said:
    Well, if Evan Scrimshaw says so.....game over.

    One possible teeny tiny flaw in his logic.....it appears his model is based on current levels of support, and as we all know, there's a lot of water to flow under the Holyrood Bridge before the actual elections....
    Boris will need to throw both more money at Scotland and get people to constantly point out how much worse things delegated there are compared to South of the border
    Nah

    call the SNP out on their dismal record of running Scotland
    Rubbish Alan, they are doing a better job than any of the other parties would do. Given we are controlled by Westminster and only get pocket money , it is a bit rich to blame Westminster failure on the SNP.
    They are doing a reasonable job of mitigating some of the Tory excesses, far from perfect but streets ahead of the alternatives.
    happy Xmas malc, hope you have a great 2020

    time to put your feet up and plant some turnips :smile:
    Wrong time of year to plant turnips, Malcy will be eating them now. Planting is in the Spring or Summer IIRC,.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    eek said:

    nunu2 said:
    Well, if Evan Scrimshaw says so.....game over.

    One possible teeny tiny flaw in his logic.....it appears his model is based on current levels of support, and as we all know, there's a lot of water to flow under the Holyrood Bridge before the actual elections....
    Boris will need to throw both more money at Scotland and get people to constantly point out how much worse things delegated there are compared to South of the border
    Nah

    call the SNP out on their dismal record of running Scotland
    Rubbish Alan, they are doing a better job than any of the other parties would do. Given we are controlled by Westminster and only get pocket money , it is a bit rich to blame Westminster failure on the SNP.
    They are doing a reasonable job of mitigating some of the Tory excesses, far from perfect but streets ahead of the alternatives.
    There is no Scottish magic money Tree Malcy.
    We will be happy just spending our own money and not paying the interest on London loans.
    There is no "Scotland's own money". Just whatever the SNP wants to prise from your fingers, malc.....
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    eek said:

    eek said:

    nunu2 said:
    Well, if Evan Scrimshaw says so.....game over.

    One possible teeny tiny flaw in his logic.....it appears his model is based on current levels of support, and as we all know, there's a lot of water to flow under the Holyrood Bridge before the actual elections....
    Boris will need to throw both more money at Scotland and get people to constantly point out how much worse things delegated there are compared to South of the border
    Nah

    call the SNP out on their dismal record of running Scotland
    The Barnett forumula means that if more money is spent up North, Scotland needs to be given even more money. Boris needs to emphasis this - we have given Scotland another £x m / x bn pounds.

    Then it's just a matter as we both say that the SNP's mistakes need to be called out continually.
    Yes call out the SNP's devastating handling of health which means Scotland has the best wait times in the country.

    Strong strategy. No one has ever thought of that before.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,613
    If I've got this right (and I probably haven't), from 1st Feb we will essentially have 'Labour Brexit', and we then have 11 months to avoid 'ERG Brexit' by coming up with a half way house.

    Now, is it at all possible that the transition essentially becomes the deal and Bozo (yes, I still call him this - nothing has changed in that regard) gets it through on Labour votes to thwart the ERG?
  • Options


    Is there an updated version that doesn’t start just before the financial crash of 2007?
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,974

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    eek said:

    nunu2 said:
    Well, if Evan Scrimshaw says so.....game over.

    One possible teeny tiny flaw in his logic.....it appears his model is based on current levels of support, and as we all know, there's a lot of water to flow under the Holyrood Bridge before the actual elections....
    Boris will need to throw both more money at Scotland and get people to constantly point out how much worse things delegated there are compared to South of the border
    Nah

    call the SNP out on their dismal record of running Scotland
    Rubbish Alan, they are doing a better job than any of the other parties would do. Given we are controlled by Westminster and only get pocket money , it is a bit rich to blame Westminster failure on the SNP.
    They are doing a reasonable job of mitigating some of the Tory excesses, far from perfect but streets ahead of the alternatives.
    There is no Scottish magic money Tree Malcy.
    We will be happy just spending our own money and not paying the interest on London loans.
    There is no "Scotland's own money". Just whatever the SNP wants to prise from your fingers, malc.....
    Mark It is unlikely to be more than I get robbed off at present.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,974
    Alistair said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    nunu2 said:
    Well, if Evan Scrimshaw says so.....game over.

    One possible teeny tiny flaw in his logic.....it appears his model is based on current levels of support, and as we all know, there's a lot of water to flow under the Holyrood Bridge before the actual elections....
    Boris will need to throw both more money at Scotland and get people to constantly point out how much worse things delegated there are compared to South of the border
    Nah

    call the SNP out on their dismal record of running Scotland
    The Barnett forumula means that if more money is spent up North, Scotland needs to be given even more money. Boris needs to emphasis this - we have given Scotland another £x m / x bn pounds.

    Then it's just a matter as we both say that the SNP's mistakes need to be called out continually.
    Yes call out the SNP's devastating handling of health which means Scotland has the best wait times in the country.

    Strong strategy. No one has ever thought of that before.
    Yes and free university and free prescriptions and free home care, really upset people.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,306


    Is there an updated version that doesn’t start just before the financial crash of 2007?
    Also one that reflects our stronger wage growth over the last 2 years? This graph reflects the loss of the huge bonuses paid in the City up to 2007.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,974
    edited December 2019
    DavidL said:


    Is there an updated version that doesn’t start just before the financial crash of 2007?
    Also one that reflects our stronger wage growth over the last 2 years? This graph reflects the loss of the huge bonuses paid in the City up to 2007.
    Do you not mean robbery receipts David
    PS: How you see a positive in UK being 3rd worst in the world for wage
    growth ( negative ) is a mystery
  • Options
    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,913

    Have the £3 Tory/ Labour memberships done their job or will they be doing a service for Corbyn's successor?

    You are deluding yourself if you think the "£3 Tories" changed the result of the Labour leadership contest. I'm sure there were a few who were prepared to lie to get a vote but nowhere near enough to swing it.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,929
    Surely Labour will elect a female leader this time?
  • Options


    Before or after tax?
    Ask Andrew Neil, he tweeted it.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,225

    If I've got this right (and I probably haven't), from 1st Feb we will essentially have 'Labour Brexit', and we then have 11 months to avoid 'ERG Brexit' by coming up with a half way house.

    Now, is it at all possible that the transition essentially becomes the deal and Bozo (yes, I still call him this - nothing has changed in that regard) gets it through on Labour votes to thwart the ERG?

    Surely not. But I can see something similar. He fudges a Transition Lite that runs from 1 Jan 2021 until the final closely aligned Trade Deal is ready at some future date. Thus we get Labour Brexit in the end. And if we also get Labour spending on public services, and Labour policy on regenerating the Regions, plus he finds a way to implement the Labour idea of getting more tax out of 'liberal elite' Big Business, then it's not out of the question that I could vote Conservative next time - if they find a serious leader.
  • Options
    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,352
    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:


    Is there an updated version that doesn’t start just before the financial crash of 2007?
    Also one that reflects our stronger wage growth over the last 2 years? This graph reflects the loss of the huge bonuses paid in the City up to 2007.
    Do you not mean robbery receipts David
    PS: How you see a positive in UK being 3rd worst in the world for wage
    growth ( negative ) is a mystery
    Isnt a lot of it to do with the Scottish idiots who were Prime Minister in the first 9 yrs of the millennium?
  • Options


    Is there an updated version that doesn’t start just before the financial crash of 2007?
    It's just an Andrew Neil tweet.
  • Options
    mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    IanB2 said:

    Good piece, but I think it overstates the extent to which the EU's position is a hardball negotiating stance and understates the extent to which they actually mean it: What the British want to do is to get full market access, but undercut their EU neighbours on environmental and labour standards.

    The EU don't want this, not only because they can probably get a better deal by standing firm, but because they *don't have cornflakes for brains*.

    Many EU states and MEPs, and certainly a blocking majority of each, simply don't want to get undercut in their own markets by a developed country playing regulatory arbitrage games. They aren't obliged to sign a deal that allows this, so they won't. No deal is better than a bad deal, as the philosopher once said.

    This is a really widespread misconception in the UK and goes to the heart of the whole case for Brexit, so it's not hard to see how everything goes pear-shaped when it comes up against a deadline.

    That's correct.
    Boris and Cummings would have taken us out without a deal in October if they hadn't been stopped. They will now do it next year since there's nobody to stop them. The absolute best we can get is a thin part-deal.
    In five years time the Tory government will be more unpopular than Corbyn and it will be difficult to find anybody who will admit to having voted Leave.
    Except that the government generally and Bozo specifically have made a lot of promises to industry and northern voters and the like that they’ll protect their access.

    His instinct when faced with a difficult choice will be to put it off rather than make one brave decision or the other (indeed that goes for politics generally), hence some sort of extended transition (which won’t be called that) seems most likely.
    Given you were certain that Duncan-Smith would lose (I assume you bet your house on It), is your analysis of any value? I assume you’ve apologised to the people who followed you on this certainty.

    The “bozo” stuff reflects on you. It’s as simplistic and twattish as EUSSR.
  • Options
    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,352
    edited December 2019
    isam said:

    Surely Labour will elect a female leader this time?

    An all women shortlist?
  • Options
    TheGreenMachineTheGreenMachine Posts: 1,043
    edited December 2019

    isam said:

    Surely Labour will elect a female leader this time?

    An all women shortlist?
    Yes it was 8-13 a few weeks ago, it's probably long odds on now, 1-4 maybe haven't checked.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,225

    behind you behind you !

    :smile: - but this is a serious matter.

    Let me try it in joke form. People like jokes.

    What do you call a thick racist?

    (Now you reply the usual and I'll do the punchline)
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,282
    isam said:

    Surely Labour will elect a female leader this time?

    Can’t see how they avoid it. Talking to LibDems during their contest, members clearly felt it had to be a woman, despite Davey being the better qualified candidate. Labour being absolutely the last, even after all the minor parties, and with their self-image of having been the first to embrace positive discrimination, I don’t see how they can realistically choose another man. McDonnell knew that, hence his willingness to duck out now.
  • Options
    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,352

    isam said:

    Surely Labour will elect a female leader this time?

    An all women shortlist?
    Yes it was 8-13 a few weeks ago, it's probably long odds on now, 1-4 maybe haven't checked.
    all very well having a female leader, but the Corbyn Mafia have to be expelled from the Party, just like Militant were in the 80's
  • Options
    Mr. B2, that box-ticking approach worked tremendously for the Lib Dems.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,929
    edited December 2019
    IanB2 said:

    isam said:

    Surely Labour will elect a female leader this time?

    Can’t see how they avoid it. Talking to LibDems during their contest, members clearly felt it had to be a woman, despite Davey being the better qualified candidate. Labour being absolutely the last, even after all the minor parties, and with their self-image of having been the first to embrace positive discrimination, I don’t see how they can realistically choose another man. McDonnell knew that, hence his willingness to duck out now.
    ...and despite all this, the favourite in the bettng is a man...
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    Now the Withdrawal Agreement has passed the Commons and will soon be law free trade talks can soon begin, the Withdrawal Agreement of course being the Deal, a delay in agreeing a free trade deal not the same as No Deal.

    A basic Canada style free trade deal for goods is certainly possible in a year however one that includes a closer alignment and services too and more resembling the single market is unlikely as it would require a level of alignment the Tory majority in the Commons would accept.

    However it should be noted the Withdrawal Agreement passed with a majority of 194 and the ERG represent only around 40 MPs anyway
  • Options
    isam said:

    IanB2 said:

    isam said:

    Surely Labour will elect a female leader this time?

    Can’t see how they avoid it. Talking to LibDems during their contest, members clearly felt it had to be a woman, despite Davey being the better qualified candidate. Labour being absolutely the last, even after all the minor parties, and with their self-image of having been the first to embrace positive discrimination, I don’t see how they can realistically choose another man. McDonnell knew that, hence his willingness to duck out now.
    ...and despite all this, the favourite in the bettng is a man...
    Indeed but a few Lib Dem females close up in the betting.

    Jo Swinson might be leader for a while yet.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,225
    matt said:

    The “bozo” stuff reflects on you. It’s as simplistic and twattish as EUSSR.

    But nothing like as twattish as everybody calling him "Boris" as if he's some mate of theirs.

    Do hope you don't do that.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,929

    isam said:

    IanB2 said:

    isam said:

    Surely Labour will elect a female leader this time?

    Can’t see how they avoid it. Talking to LibDems during their contest, members clearly felt it had to be a woman, despite Davey being the better qualified candidate. Labour being absolutely the last, even after all the minor parties, and with their self-image of having been the first to embrace positive discrimination, I don’t see how they can realistically choose another man. McDonnell knew that, hence his willingness to duck out now.
    ...and despite all this, the favourite in the bettng is a man...
    Indeed but a few Lib Dem females close up in the betting.

    Jo Swinson might be leader for a while yet.
    Oh sorry, I was talking about Labour, where Keir Starmer is favourite
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,306
    Not convinced by another header. This is getting to be a trend.

    Leaving on 31st January will be cathartic. I genuinely believe that the fizz will come out of this at that point. There will be some noise around the edges, people trying to make the case that our GDP is down 0.1% or something fanciful, people saying that the EU still have too much influence on our affairs, people who just can't let go. But for most we will find that the sun still comes up in the morning (not that we actually see it much at this time of year) and life seems incredibly similar to what it was before.

    Those who claim that getting a trade deal with the EU is going to be impossible in the year are the same who were convinced that Boris could not get the EU to change a single sentence of May's deal. Whilst such conviction and self confidence is admirable in many ways it has drawbacks. I expect a deal to be done which will no doubt have some loons (Farage for example) screaming betrayal but which a comfortable majority accept.

    And then we can get on to the real issues affecting our economic future.
  • Options
    isam said:

    isam said:

    IanB2 said:

    isam said:

    Surely Labour will elect a female leader this time?

    Can’t see how they avoid it. Talking to LibDems during their contest, members clearly felt it had to be a woman, despite Davey being the better qualified candidate. Labour being absolutely the last, even after all the minor parties, and with their self-image of having been the first to embrace positive discrimination, I don’t see how they can realistically choose another man. McDonnell knew that, hence his willingness to duck out now.
    ...and despite all this, the favourite in the bettng is a man...
    Indeed but a few Lib Dem females close up in the betting.

    Jo Swinson might be leader for a while yet.
    Oh sorry, I was talking about Labour, where Keir Starmer is favourite
    Rebecca is slight favourite with most bookies but only by a quarter of a point or so.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,929
    edited December 2019

    isam said:

    isam said:

    IanB2 said:

    isam said:

    Surely Labour will elect a female leader this time?

    Can’t see how they avoid it. Talking to LibDems during their contest, members clearly felt it had to be a woman, despite Davey being the better qualified candidate. Labour being absolutely the last, even after all the minor parties, and with their self-image of having been the first to embrace positive discrimination, I don’t see how they can realistically choose another man. McDonnell knew that, hence his willingness to duck out now.
    ...and despite all this, the favourite in the bettng is a man...
    Indeed but a few Lib Dem females close up in the betting.

    Jo Swinson might be leader for a while yet.
    Oh sorry, I was talking about Labour, where Keir Starmer is favourite
    Rebecca is slight favourite with most bookies but only by a quarter of a point or so.
    Betfair is the real market, but not a lot in it between RLB and Starmer
  • Options
    DavidL said:

    Not convinced by another header. This is getting to be a trend.

    Leaving on 31st January will be cathartic. I genuinely believe that the fizz will come out of this at that point. There will be some noise around the edges, people trying to make the case that our GDP is down 0.1% or something fanciful, people saying that the EU still have too much influence on our affairs, people who just can't let go. But for most we will find that the sun still comes up in the morning (not that we actually see it much at this time of year) and life seems incredibly similar to what it was before.

    Those who claim that getting a trade deal with the EU is going to be impossible in the year are the same who were convinced that Boris could not get the EU to change a single sentence of May's deal. Whilst such conviction and self confidence is admirable in many ways it has drawbacks. I expect a deal to be done which will no doubt have some loons (Farage for example) screaming betrayal but which a comfortable majority accept.

    And then we can get on to the real issues affecting our economic future.

    I'm very open minded and respect both sides and their views but I do believe there won't be much difference.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,225
    edited December 2019

    Mr. B2, that box-ticking approach worked tremendously for the Lib Dems.

    We have here a large and venerable political party which prides itself on being "progressive" that has never in its history had a woman leader. Furthermore it is the only party of which this can be said. If such a party seeks to bias its selection this time towards female candidates, it is surely somewhat reductive to describe this as mere "box ticking"?
  • Options
    mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    edited December 2019
    kinabalu said:

    matt said:

    The “bozo” stuff reflects on you. It’s as simplistic and twattish as EUSSR.

    But nothing like as twattish as everybody calling him "Boris" as if he's some mate of theirs.

    Do hope you don't do that.
    No, in the same way I wouldn’t have used “Jez”.

    Still waiting for all those Labour pivots by the way.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,548

    isam said:

    Surely Labour will elect a female leader this time?

    An all women shortlist?
    Yes it was 8-13 a few weeks ago, it's probably long odds on now, 1-4 maybe haven't checked.
    all very well having a female leader, but the Corbyn Mafia have to be expelled from the Party, just like Militant were in the 80's
    I am far from sure that this is possible.

    Imo Corbyn himself will be designated innocent scapegoat for the sins of the people and driven off into the desert, whilst the Corbynista scum-suckers will continue sucking scum.

    It is modestly encouraging to see another of their conspiracy websites cut off at the knees, however.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,306

    DavidL said:

    Not convinced by another header. This is getting to be a trend.

    Leaving on 31st January will be cathartic. I genuinely believe that the fizz will come out of this at that point. There will be some noise around the edges, people trying to make the case that our GDP is down 0.1% or something fanciful, people saying that the EU still have too much influence on our affairs, people who just can't let go. But for most we will find that the sun still comes up in the morning (not that we actually see it much at this time of year) and life seems incredibly similar to what it was before.

    Those who claim that getting a trade deal with the EU is going to be impossible in the year are the same who were convinced that Boris could not get the EU to change a single sentence of May's deal. Whilst such conviction and self confidence is admirable in many ways it has drawbacks. I expect a deal to be done which will no doubt have some loons (Farage for example) screaming betrayal but which a comfortable majority accept.

    And then we can get on to the real issues affecting our economic future.

    I'm very open minded and respect both sides and their views but I do believe there won't be much difference.
    Well we'll soon find out. I suspect people will spend most of 2020 claiming that the reason there is no difference is because we are in transition (which will be largely true of course since the transition keeps most of the benefits and disbenefits).

    I suspect in 2021 we will be looking hard for examples. Probably less unskilled immigration but we won't see that on an individual basis, just maybe different requirements for holiday insurance (although not for Spain), a different queue at the airport. It won't be easy to spot them. But time will tell.
  • Options
    Mr. kinabalu, if you're picking someone based on gender rather than competence the only legitimate complaint that can be levelled at my description of 'box-ticking' is that it's too kind to overt sexism.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    IanB2 said:

    isam said:

    Surely Labour will elect a female leader this time?

    Can’t see how they avoid it. Talking to LibDems during their contest, members clearly felt it had to be a woman, despite Davey being the better qualified candidate. Labour being absolutely the last, even after all the minor parties, and with their self-image of having been the first to embrace positive discrimination, I don’t see how they can realistically choose another man. McDonnell knew that, hence his willingness to duck out now.
    ...and despite all this, the favourite in the bettng is a man...
    Indeed but a few Lib Dem females close up in the betting.

    Jo Swinson might be leader for a while yet.
    Oh sorry, I was talking about Labour, where Keir Starmer is favourite
    Rebecca is slight favourite with most bookies but only by a quarter of a point or so.
    Betfair is the real market, but not a lot in it between RLB and Starmer
    According to Yougov voters might actually slightly prefer RLB to Starmer but Lisa Nandy or Jess Phillips do better than either of them

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1207760010442264576?s=20
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,225
    matt said:

    No, in the same way I wouldn’t have used “Jez”.

    Still waiting for all those Labour pivots by the way.

    OK, good to hear. But let's not pretend that "Jez" is in any way comparable. That is niche. Mainstream, it's "Corbyn" or it's "Jeremy Corbyn".

    Ditto with other politicians. Both names or just the surname. Exception? Just the one. This "Boris" bloke. Almost everybody apart from me and you says it. It has to stop. Please help me stop it.

    Which Labour pivots do you mean btw?
  • Options

    kinabalu said:

    Jonathan said:

    Brexit has its own vocabulary, diverge from the one true path and you are labelled a remoaner. More generally when a right winger doesn’t like how you apply free speech, you get accused of not being patriotic or moral. Very PC, just of a different hue.

    Yes, there is a new PC in town.

    Example: I used to feel relaxed about calling people who are thick and racist "thick and racist".

    Would be very wary of that now. They'd scream abuse and play the "elitist" card to shut me up.

    It's not healthy for debate. If you suppress things they come back to bite you hard one day.
    so you felt that abusing people who didn't have the advantage of your education was a good idea ?

    I can see where that might cause problems.
    There’s an unspoken assumption here that ‘thick rascists’ automatically equals white working class people.

    Education doesn’t necessarily equal intelligence. I’ve known well-spoken nice middle class types at a Russell Group university who were as thick as a diver’s clog. I’ve known rough types who were dragged up, never read a book, who have a sharper intelligence and more profound insights about how to navigate and prosper in our world than I could ever hope to possess.

    There are many cultural factors at play.

    There are a lot of thick rascists about, and they are not confined to any one class or strata of society. The Leave campaign plucked their votes with brilliant cynicism.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,974

    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:


    Is there an updated version that doesn’t start just before the financial crash of 2007?
    Also one that reflects our stronger wage growth over the last 2 years? This graph reflects the loss of the huge bonuses paid in the City up to 2007.
    Do you not mean robbery receipts David
    PS: How you see a positive in UK being 3rd worst in the world for wage
    growth ( negative ) is a mystery
    Isnt a lot of it to do with the Scottish idiots who were Prime Minister in the first 9 yrs of the millennium?
    They were leading English parties and 10 years of Tories has not fixed either, cheeks of the same arse. Tory Blair and Northern Britain Brown , you could not make it up.
  • Options
    saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    malcolmg said:

    Alistair said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    nunu2 said:
    Well, if Evan Scrimshaw says so.....game over.

    One possible teeny tiny flaw in his logic.....it appears his model is based on current levels of support, and as we all know, there's a lot of water to flow under the Holyrood Bridge before the actual elections....
    Boris will need to throw both more money at Scotland and get people to constantly point out how much worse things delegated there are compared to South of the border
    Nah

    call the SNP out on their dismal record of running Scotland
    The Barnett forumula means that if more money is spent up North, Scotland needs to be given even more money. Boris needs to emphasis this - we have given Scotland another £x m / x bn pounds.

    Then it's just a matter as we both say that the SNP's mistakes need to be called out continually.
    Yes call out the SNP's devastating handling of health which means Scotland has the best wait times in the country.

    Strong strategy. No one has ever thought of that before.
    Yes and free university and free prescriptions and free home care, really upset people.
    Free? You really don't understand how this works.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,929
    .
    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    IanB2 said:

    isam said:

    Surely Labour will elect a female leader this time?

    Can’t see how they avoid it. Talking to LibDems during their contest, members clearly felt it had to be a woman, despite Davey being the better qualified candidate. Labour being absolutely the last, even after all the minor parties, and with their self-image of having been the first to embrace positive discrimination, I don’t see how they can realistically choose another man. McDonnell knew that, hence his willingness to duck out now.
    ...and despite all this, the favourite in the bettng is a man...
    Indeed but a few Lib Dem females close up in the betting.

    Jo Swinson might be leader for a while yet.
    Oh sorry, I was talking about Labour, where Keir Starmer is favourite
    Rebecca is slight favourite with most bookies but only by a quarter of a point or so.
    Betfair is the real market, but not a lot in it between RLB and Starmer
    According to Yougov voters might actually slightly prefer RLB to Starmer but Lisa Nandy or Jess Phillips do better than either of them

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1207760010442264576?s=20
    What's needed is a YouGov of Labour members
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,974

    isam said:

    IanB2 said:

    isam said:

    Surely Labour will elect a female leader this time?

    Can’t see how they avoid it. Talking to LibDems during their contest, members clearly felt it had to be a woman, despite Davey being the better qualified candidate. Labour being absolutely the last, even after all the minor parties, and with their self-image of having been the first to embrace positive discrimination, I don’t see how they can realistically choose another man. McDonnell knew that, hence his willingness to duck out now.
    ...and despite all this, the favourite in the bettng is a man...
    Indeed but a few Lib Dem females close up in the betting.

    Jo Swinson might be leader for a while yet.
    Thought she had already gone.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,974
    kinabalu said:

    matt said:

    The “bozo” stuff reflects on you. It’s as simplistic and twattish as EUSSR.

    But nothing like as twattish as everybody calling him "Boris" as if he's some mate of theirs.

    Do hope you don't do that.
    Pretty pathetic right enough, saddos.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,929
    malcolmg said:

    kinabalu said:

    matt said:

    The “bozo” stuff reflects on you. It’s as simplistic and twattish as EUSSR.

    But nothing like as twattish as everybody calling him "Boris" as if he's some mate of theirs.

    Do hope you don't do that.
    Pretty pathetic right enough, saddos.
    Not really, it is what he is commonly known as. It annoys people that don't like him, but that's the way it is.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,974
    saddened said:

    malcolmg said:

    Alistair said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    nunu2 said:
    Well, if Evan Scrimshaw says so.....game over.

    One possible teeny tiny flaw in his logic.....it appears his model is based on current levels of support, and as we all know, there's a lot of water to flow under the Holyrood Bridge before the actual elections....
    Boris will need to throw both more money at Scotland and get people to constantly point out how much worse things delegated there are compared to South of the border
    Nah

    call the SNP out on their dismal record of running Scotland
    The Barnett forumula means that if more money is spent up North, Scotland needs to be given even more money. Boris needs to emphasis this - we have given Scotland another £x m / x bn pounds.

    Then it's just a matter as we both say that the SNP's mistakes need to be called out continually.
    Yes call out the SNP's devastating handling of health which means Scotland has the best wait times in the country.

    Strong strategy. No one has ever thought of that before.
    Yes and free university and free prescriptions and free home care, really upset people.
    Free? You really don't understand how this works.
    I know very well, I pay thousands a month for those freebies which I don't mind. I do mind funding London , the trougher Tories and Trident etc. I see green cheese suits you.
  • Options

    isam said:

    isam said:

    IanB2 said:

    isam said:

    Surely Labour will elect a female leader this time?

    Can’t see how they avoid it. Talking to LibDems during their contest, members clearly felt it had to be a woman, despite Davey being the better qualified candidate. Labour being absolutely the last, even after all the minor parties, and with their self-image of having been the first to embrace positive discrimination, I don’t see how they can realistically choose another man. McDonnell knew that, hence his willingness to duck out now.
    ...and despite all this, the favourite in the bettng is a man...
    Indeed but a few Lib Dem females close up in the betting.

    Jo Swinson might be leader for a while yet.
    Oh sorry, I was talking about Labour, where Keir Starmer is favourite
    Rebecca is slight favourite with most bookies but only by a quarter of a point or so.
    Labour has lost ever since members started to refer to our leaders in first name terms. (Admittedly, with two Milibands we had at least a rationale for doing so to minimise confusion.) So I will continue to do Labour a loyal favour by using Long Bailey's surname, not that I expect her to lead us to anything but another crushing defeat.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,974
    isam said:

    malcolmg said:

    kinabalu said:

    matt said:

    The “bozo” stuff reflects on you. It’s as simplistic and twattish as EUSSR.

    But nothing like as twattish as everybody calling him "Boris" as if he's some mate of theirs.

    Do hope you don't do that.
    Pretty pathetic right enough, saddos.
    Not really, it is what he is commonly known as. It annoys people that don't like him, but that's the way it is.
    Oh Dear , someone is love struck
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    DavidL said:

    Not convinced by another header. This is getting to be a trend.

    Leaving on 31st January will be cathartic. I genuinely believe that the fizz will come out of this at that point. There will be some noise around the edges, people trying to make the case that our GDP is down 0.1% or something fanciful, people saying that the EU still have too much influence on our affairs, people who just can't let go. But for most we will find that the sun still comes up in the morning (not that we actually see it much at this time of year) and life seems incredibly similar to what it was before.

    Those who claim that getting a trade deal with the EU is going to be impossible in the year are the same who were convinced that Boris could not get the EU to change a single sentence of May's deal. Whilst such conviction and self confidence is admirable in many ways it has drawbacks. I expect a deal to be done which will no doubt have some loons (Farage for example) screaming betrayal but which a comfortable majority accept.

    And then we can get on to the real issues affecting our economic future.

    I hope you're right. I fear not, but I was one of those who thought the WA would not be changed
  • Options
    eek said:

    eek said:

    nunu2 said:
    Well, if Evan Scrimshaw says so.....game over.

    One possible teeny tiny flaw in his logic.....it appears his model is based on current levels of support, and as we all know, there's a lot of water to flow under the Holyrood Bridge before the actual elections....
    Boris will need to throw both more money at Scotland and get people to constantly point out how much worse things delegated there are compared to South of the border
    Nah

    call the SNP out on their dismal record of running Scotland
    The Barnett forumula means that if more money is spent up North, Scotland needs to be given even more money. Boris needs to emphasis this - we have given Scotland another £x m / x bn pounds.

    Then it's just a matter as we both say that the SNP's mistakes need to be called out continually.
    Yep, it's shocking the way that the SNP are not challenged by the media and opposition on their record. Anonymous blokes on diddy websites aren't doing enough of it either.

    Still, the Unionist strategy of fighting a GE on the SNP's performance in devolved government worked an absolute treat.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    edited December 2019
    isam said:

    malcolmg said:

    kinabalu said:

    matt said:

    The “bozo” stuff reflects on you. It’s as simplistic and twattish as EUSSR.

    But nothing like as twattish as everybody calling him "Boris" as if he's some mate of theirs.

    Do hope you don't do that.
    Pretty pathetic right enough, saddos.
    Not really, it is what he is commonly known as. It annoys people that don't like him, but that's the way it is.
    I'm afraid this is true. I dont even like him one bit and I call him Boris, people moaning about it is just pathetic. I'm sorry but theres no other word for people who get mad or annoyed because Boris gets called Boris, based on the insulting notion it means people are fooled into liking him or some nonsense.

    It doesnt mean everyone is acting like hes a mate. Boris is a dick. See? Seriously this is what upsets people? Theres real things to get mad at boris or boris supporters for.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,974
    kle4 said:

    isam said:

    malcolmg said:

    kinabalu said:

    matt said:

    The “bozo” stuff reflects on you. It’s as simplistic and twattish as EUSSR.

    But nothing like as twattish as everybody calling him "Boris" as if he's some mate of theirs.

    Do hope you don't do that.
    Pretty pathetic right enough, saddos.
    Not really, it is what he is commonly known as. It annoys people that don't like him, but that's the way it is.
    I'm afraid this is true. I dont even like him one bit and I call him Boris, people moaning about it is just pathetic. I'm sorry but theres no other word for people who get mad or annoyed because Boris gets called Boris, based on the insulting notion it means people are fooled into liking him or some nonsense.

    It doesnt mean everyone is acting like hes a mate. Boris is a dick. See? Seriously this is what upsets people? Theres real things to get mad at boris or boris supporters for.
    Well if it is so normal why do they not call other politician's by their first name , sad insecure gits
  • Options
    paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461
    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    IanB2 said:

    isam said:

    Surely Labour will elect a female leader this time?

    Can’t see how they avoid it. Talking to LibDems during their contest, members clearly felt it had to be a woman, despite Davey being the better qualified candidate. Labour being absolutely the last, even after all the minor parties, and with their self-image of having been the first to embrace positive discrimination, I don’t see how they can realistically choose another man. McDonnell knew that, hence his willingness to duck out now.
    ...and despite all this, the favourite in the bettng is a man...
    Indeed but a few Lib Dem females close up in the betting.

    Jo Swinson might be leader for a while yet.
    Oh sorry, I was talking about Labour, where Keir Starmer is favourite
    Rebecca is slight favourite with most bookies but only by a quarter of a point or so.
    Betfair is the real market, but not a lot in it between RLB and Starmer
    According to Yougov voters might actually slightly prefer RLB to Starmer but Lisa Nandy or Jess Phillips do better than either of them

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1207760010442264576?s=20
    So, generalising somewhat, the more people know them, the less they like them.

    Although this is probably true of politicians of all parties.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,929
    kle4 said:

    isam said:

    malcolmg said:

    kinabalu said:

    matt said:

    The “bozo” stuff reflects on you. It’s as simplistic and twattish as EUSSR.

    But nothing like as twattish as everybody calling him "Boris" as if he's some mate of theirs.

    Do hope you don't do that.
    Pretty pathetic right enough, saddos.
    Not really, it is what he is commonly known as. It annoys people that don't like him, but that's the way it is.
    I'm afraid this is true. I dont even like him one bit and I call him Boris, people moaning about it is just pathetic. I'm sorry but theres no other word for people who get mad or annoyed because Boris gets called Boris, based on the insulting notion it means people are fooled into liking him or some nonsense.

    It doesnt mean everyone is acting like hes a mate. Boris is a dick. See? Seriously this is what upsets people? Theres real things to get mad at boris or boris supporters for.
    It's a petty crime!
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,715
    I don't think the EU, and crucially its member states, see the Level Playing Field requirements as a mistake. They are there because member states have those obligations as a necessary price for high access to each others' markets. They are certainly not going to allow national basis access to a UK that explicitly sets out to price down those obligations. This is the reddest of all red lines for member states.

    Once again the EU is playing hard-ball to a degree that suggests they either don’t understand what’s going on in British politics, or they do but that they don’t care because they’re so wedded to Ever Closer Union that it must bind even a state that leaves the club – which truly would be a Hotel California Brexit.

    Actually member state really don't care about British politics and whether the UK has close access beyond the level playing field.
This discussion has been closed.