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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tomas Forsey puts Thursday’s result into context
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tomas Forsey puts Thursday’s result into context
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"I hold your hand in mine dear......."
All together in Sydney from 7am Christmas day then all together up the coast for a week!
The Tories seem to already have plans in place to invest in the north, I think someone posted to me yesterday that the manifesto writers have been planning this for a few months at least. They really must have worked on this in focus groups that us normies didn't know about because the speeches and press releases on this subject came out too fast for it to be on the hoof.
She is fecked from the start, known as...Rebecca Wrong- Daily, her future is assured.
Boris also has a weakness for large infrastructure projects from his proposed airport in the Thames estuary to the garden bridge to the rather more useful Crossrail and the Olympic investment (I know some of these started before his time but he strongly supported them). HS2 is now nailed on. Hopefully some of the new ideas will do some good and help to rebalance our economy.
https://twitter.com/MammothWhale/status/1205911542543388672?s=19
Unilateral deceleration of independence NOW.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/14/working-class-voters-didnt-trust-labour-jess-phillips
Interesting graphs, and quite useful.
I still think Labour MPs need to axe Corbyn now.
Still can't see her getting close to winning though. They need someone who looks and sounds like a PM in waiting, can master policy detail on a day-to-day basis to hold the government to account, and isn't going to come up with a manifesto with a trillion or two in extra borrowing and wide scale confiscation of private property.
Kier Starmer?
But then we come back to the leadership election, and there's nothing there to stop hundreds of thousands of 'supporters' doing again what they did in 2015 and 2016.
To understand the leadership election you need to look into mp sponsorship/affiliation.
The big question is how flexible Union/momentum leadership will be to find a ‘winner’. Unions especially demand a ROI.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/14/we-won-the-argument-but-i-regret-we-didnt-convert-that-into-a-majority-for-change
Whoever it is will need to get Lansman on board. I suspect he might be surprisingly flexible.
https://theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/14/tactical-voting-what-went-wrong-general-election-2019
tl;dr version: not enough Lib Dems were prepared to vote for Corbyn.
Right now there are about three major programmes I could be working on.
Labour are facing the prospect of becoming irrelevant in UK politics, unless they can detach momentum
It has happened in Scotland and the earthquake last thursday has put them perilously close to the same in England and Wales, apart from London
If Boris does a SNP in England and Wales over the next five years, he could be looking at 15 years as PM
2017 was the worst thing. It's convinced them they can win as it was a "near miss", and a much better result that Brown or Miliband in 2010 or 2015 respectively, so it makes it much easier to blame this particular result on the media or Brexit, not the far-left philosophy.
https://twitter.com/KatieCurtis/status/1206127863407218688
It needs skilled UK project managers, construction managers and engineers. There aren't enough in the UK, sure, but also in the world. We're regularly approached to be poached by Australia, Canada and the US and the skills aren't widely available in the global marketplace either. We've tried multiple times to plug gaps in Crossrail this way. They just aren't there.
What we need is more training and apprenticeships here and more young people doing engineering degrees at university.
Clueless.
One reason Crossrail is suffering is that there aren't enough radio or signalling engineers to commission the volume of works required in the time required - we're trying to do nine major stations at once, whereas we have the resources to probably only do two or three.
Because that could easily be a very different question. The Tories have an insatiable lust for power that led them to fire IDS, swallow most of Howard’s reforms, elect Cameron and then enter coalition with Clegg.
Labour have an insatiable lust for ideological purity. When given the opportunity to elect Owen Smith as a Howard figure, they chose Corbyn again.
The results may have been longer in coming than expected but they were both inevitable and foreseen at the time. Do the members care? The evidence says no, at the moment. They still seem to think everyone wants Corbynism without Corbyn.
And if he backs (openly or covertly) the egregious Long-Bailey, or even Burgon, that makes them the likely winner.
But Corbyn crystallised these doubts and symbolised all that was wrong with Labour. That, I fear, is the key reason for their losses. Until the left accept however that it wasn’t just his personality but all he stood for that was rejected, they will be at risk of drawing the wrong lesson.
The provinces and people in them who are down and out want to be trained and want these opportunities.
We must start there and stop taking the easy (and socially disruptive) route of importing masses of people to do it instead.
And what you describe isn't an option anyway. Theres no big pool of construction experts (to our standards) available in the world we can just readily import to quickly build lots of projects.
Train. Train. Train.
I am curious why crossrail didn’t open incrementally, one station at a time either slowly heading into London, or opening the major stations and filing in the gaps. I am sure they are engineering constraints that make this impossible. But if the project had started with say only 2-3 stations in London, they would have seen an ROI sooner. It’s how we build digital things...….
The issue with Crossrail is the interface of the signalling on the traditional network with the signalling that is needed in the new part through London which needs to be able to cope with far higher number of trains per hour.
It is getting that interface working that is causing the problem so they cannot open any new bits until that is fixed.
1. Labour still took, in round numbers, 200 seats and a third of the vote. Amongst those members who still care about winning power, the temptation will surely be to look at Johnson, assume he's going to make a horlicks of it, and go for "one more heave?" Pick a telegenic young woman without Corbyn's baggage to sell his project to the voters, and just wait for them to drop into Labour's lap...
2. Much of the far Left is more fixated on ideological purity, self-righteousness and raging against the machine in any event. Being true to the faith is more important than engaging in compromises to win over the electorate.
In 2015, Labour members voted overwhelmingly to install as leader a radical whose entire career consisted of angry, futile rebellion against authority. Many of those appalled by this decision have since abandoned the party. Maybe that's all Labour is really for now? Maybe the members like where they are and don't want to change? Maybe Labour just wants to be perpetually angry?
https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1206137572520529920?s=21
https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1206137964566331392?s=21
TfL rejected it. They want to go for the full revenue of the whole thing asap (as their finances are desperate) but it's bloody high risk.
@Jonathan I must admit I’m not the biggest Cooper fan, but I agree with you on bringing back Ed Miliband into the cabinet. I’d also like to see Stella Creasy, Wes Streeting, and Lisa Nandy get cabinet positions as well.
You don't know what you're talking about.
Sorry.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/12/14/boris-johnson-plans-radical-overhaul-civil-service-guarantee/
It's the leaders, project managers and specialists that are the constraint.
Yes, sure, you could import lots of mass unskilled labour (which would be very unpopular, by the way) but it wouldn't get you anywhere.
You also need people who understand our construction, planning and environmental standards.
The lack of self awareness of the girl with the microphone is astounding. She blames everyone for voting other than for Labour. But I particularly groaned at her comment that she had been to Stoke South on campaign. A seat Labour were never going to win. Why was she not in Stoke North where they might have had a faint chance?
These people are completely divorced from reality. And yet they are so self-righteous and holier than thou they simply cannot deal with their own huge failures.
Of course, we should be investing money in training engineers, trades people, nurses, doctors, care workers etc. That is self-evidently correct. But right now we do not have the people we need, so we either accept no new infrastructure and declining service provision or we allow immigration to plug the gaps. I do, not think the Tories. new voting demographic will accept further decline and non-investment.
Government by a disapproving media sucking air through their teeth and tut-tutting died on Thursday.