CHB - the points you are making come back to my point yesterday that the Labour electoral coalition will be tough to build back up. Not impossible, but it will take time.
The fact is you have two groups - big city metropolitan well-educated millennials, minority groups and left-leaning professionals, and the white working class northern voters - whose views on certain issues differ in a number of ways. If Labour want to move to solidify the former and try and get waverers down South to vote for them, at the expense of the WWC, it’s a strategy but it is going to take a long time to bear fruit. And has the added problem of the FPTP structure not giving them a majority in those kinds of seats right now.
Or they try and triangulate and get the northern WWC back on board. But to do that they can’t just go for the platitudes anymore. Someone is going to have to compromise, somewhere - on immigration, in Europe, on support for small businesses and people who want to work and see the benefits of doing so on themselves and their communities. There’s no reason why they can’t do both, but they need to speak a language other than that of north London and look to really understand these voters better.
My view is Labour probably has to do little to maintain its Southern base. Give them a few bungs on tuition fees, railways, the environment and they really have nowhere else to go. I speak as one of these people, I am not going to vote Tory, I am not going to vote LD as they have no hope of winning (despite everything, we did see that effect this year) and I know full well a Labour Party in Government is better than a Labour Party not doing anything.
I'm not even convinced the lack of "wokeness" would really put people off. The membership might narrow but who cares about that?
We're in a post Brexit world now, the reality is FOM is going away anyway, so these Southern voters are going to accept that.
I think Labour has got very caught up in the People's Vote movement and now this has gone away too, these people will vote on other issues.
I genuinely think the metropolitan, Southern base is much less of a problem than people think. Even Corbyn had lost popularity with them.
I think you are right about the strategy. But what you have to do is make sure that the party shifts to reflect that. Do momentum understand that? Doubtful.
At the same time, you can’t just ignore those voters completely - ignoring a substantial portion of your electoral coalition always leads to tears before bedtime in the end (look at what’s happening now for a good example!) but I agree that they are easier to keep on board at this stage. It’s about having good progressive social policies without making it the be-all-and-end-all of your offering, and realising you have to compromise.
Those pictures of Boris sounding triumphant in Sedgefield must be a dagger to the heart of Labour. That's like Corbyn holding a victory rally in Dorset.
Plus, you know you've got a problem when David Lammy is starting to be a voice of
But still. I reckon they're out of power for at least another 10 years. Considering Boris is a lucky 0
Here's hoping
The Tories now have their work cut out to keep those new voters in the north and midlands. Are you really expecting Brexit and Johnson to transform the lives of people in Workington, Bolsover, Stoke etc? If they do then good luck to them.
If disillusionment with Brexit and Bozo sets in they will desert the Tories as quickly as they arrived. They have not become core Tory voters overnight. There is a reason most of those seats rarely voted for Tories in the past.
The other side of the coin is that the Tory vote only increased by some 300K compared to May's campaign, so lots of former Tory voters have deserted the party to be replaced by WWC leavers.
If Brexit is not a success and the WWC leavers are disillusioned and desert are you convinced that ex-Tory remainers are going to flood back into the party that owns Brexit 100%?
If Labour choose the right leader and the economy performs badly in the post-Brexit years Johnson will be out in 5 years.
Wont be easy. They'll need to be good and lucky. But they dont need to give up on 2024. Or 2023 more likely.
Johnson is really not going to tack left. There is a phenomenal amount of gullibility on here. This mendacious liar will feel no sense of responsibility. He and his party also have no useful ideas for the disadvantaged. The only cohesive philosophical pressure will come from the hardline right-wing thinktanks, and their paymasters in the USA. That is where we are headed, with plenty of culture war to help hold the bulk of his electoral coalition together. Look to the Republicans in the USA and to India, not European Christian Democracy.
It will be an utter shitshow.
Probably. I think Boris very malleable and could do many things if persuaded by advisers it will be popular, regardless of it being left or right. Hes just more likely to listen on things from the right
There is ZERO credible opposition in Scotland, all the London parties appoint sockpuppet dummies as leaders, they follow London orders and get trounced every time. Hard to see the circle breaking until we get a REAL Scottish party from the ashes of Labour/Tories London regional office parties.
I'm unclear from this whether you believe it is even possible for a unionist party to be a real Scottish party.
CHB - the points you are making come back to my point yesterday that the Labour electoral coalition will be tough to build back up. Not impossible, but it will take time.
The fact is you have two groups - big city metropolitan well-educated millennials, minority groups and left-leaning professionals, and the white working class northety in those kinds of seats right now.
Or they try and triangulate and get the northern WWC back on board. But to do that they can’t just go for the platitudes anymore. Someone is going to have to compromise, somewhere - on immigration, in Europe, on support for small businesses and people who want to work and see the benefits of doing so on themselves and their communities. There’s no reason why they can’t do both, but they need to speak a language other than that of north London and look to really understand these voters better.
My view is Labour probably has to do little to maintain its Southern base. Give them a few bungs on tuition fees, railways, the environment and they really have nowhere else to go. I speak as one of these people, I am not going to vote Tory, I am not going to vote LD as they have no hope of winning (despite everything, we did see that effect this year) and I know full well a Labour Party in Government is better than a Labour Party not doing anything.
I'm not even convinced the lack of "wokeness" would really put people off. The membership might narrow but who cares about that?
We're in a post Brexit world now, the reality is FOM is going away anyway, so these Southern voters are going to accept that.
I think Labour has got very caught up in the People's Vote movement and now this has gone away too, these people will vote on other issues.
I genuinely think the metropolitan, Southern base is much less of a problem than people think. Even Corbyn had lost popularity with them.
I think you are right about the strategy. But what you have to do is make sure that the party shifts to reflect that. Do momentum understand that? Doubtful.
At the same time, you can’t just ignore those voters completely - ignoring a substantial portion of your electoral coalition always leads to tears before bedtime in the end (look at what’s happening now for a good example!) but I agree that they are easier to keep on board at this stage. It’s about having good progressive social policies without making it the be-all-and-end-all of your offering, and realising you have to compromise.
Comfortably off, older, champagne socialists (small s) will probably stick with Lab giving the party a relatively free hand to win back the WWC.
I think some have not looked closely at what Caroline Flint is saying. Primarily she blames Labour Remainers. She also has endorsed (though not, I think, backed) Rebecca Long-Bailey as a viable successor.
She's right about this. It's all very well buying in to the sloppy 'it's all Corbyn's fault' but in reality the reason Labour lost the election is that they lost the northern working class vote. The Labour Red Wall collapsed. It really is that straightforward.
So, yes Labour Remainers lost the election!
Okay, it's a little more nuanced because Corbyn was toxic. However if he'd been an ardent Leaver and had led the party on an unequivocal Brexit ticket, I doubt whether his policies, and even his wretched antisemitism, would have bothered the blokes up north too much?
I think Labour's huge problem is still Scotland. Labour needs to win 30-40 seats in Scotland to get a majority, I don't know how realistic that is. Which means they are forever going to need to be in a Faustian pact with the SNP which is voter poison in middle England. That picture of EdM in Salmond's pocket is still relevant.
I honestly don't see a path to a Labour minority unless they make nice with the Lib Dems and hope the Lib Dems start their fight back against the Tories.
There is no path to power for Labour which includes separatist parties in its coalition. They will get smashed to pieces by the electorate in England and Wales if they enable separatist movements.
I think I've lost some of my political judgement in this election, although I've made money (by 4 seats). I totally missed what was happening on the Red Wall.
So I put this out there as a question. Does not Boris' emphatic win mean that he will be able to silence the hard-right? He can shift quietly to the centre knowing he's not going to get defeated by 20 ERG types, with whom he does not naturally really agree.
I think people are really missing it's not just Corbyn, it's the entire Labour team, from PR to back office management, to press, to whoever else, they're all terrible. They all need to go immediately.
I think I've lost some of my political judgement in this election, although I've made money (by 4 seats). I totally missed what was happening on the Red Wall.
So I put this out there as a question. Does not Boris' emphatic win mean that he will be able to silence the hard-right? He can shift quietly to the centre knowing he's not going to get defeated by 20 ERG types, with whom he does not naturally really agree.
Quite possibily. If JRM is out, that would be evidence of that.
If Cummings is running the show, remember he hates the ERG.
I think I've lost some of my political judgement in this election, although I've made money (by 4 seats). I totally missed what was happening on the Red Wall.
So I put this out there as a question. Does not Boris' emphatic win mean that he will be able to silence the hard-right? He can shift quietly to the centre knowing he's not going to get defeated by 20 ERG types, with whom he does not naturally really agree.
Quite possibily. If JRM is out, that would be evidence of that.
If Cummings is running the show, remember he hates the ERG.
The reality is that if Corbyn was a better leader and had better advisors he wouldn't have backed a second referendum in the first place.
And he would have refused to countenance a second IndyRef. Simply put the "two referendums, two more years of uncertainty" was absolutely killer. I stressed this point and I think I was right that those pencils wavering over the Labour or Tory boxes across the country decided "No, no more of this" and votes for us.
I think Labour's huge problem is still Scotland. Labour needs to win 30-40 seats in Scotland to get a majority, I don't know how realistic that is. Which means they are forever going to need to be in a Faustian pact with the SNP which is voter poison in middle England. That picture of EdM in Salmond's pocket is still relevant.
I honestly don't see a path to a Labour minority unless they make nice with the Lib Dems and hope the Lib Dems start their fight back against the Tories.
There is no path to power for Labour which includes separatist parties in its coalition. They will get smashed to pieces by the electorate in England and Wales if they enable separatist movements.
I'm really not convinced the SNP argument had much sting this time around. It's one of the few Tory attacks I didn't think landed at all.
Labour should oppose Scottish Independence from day 1. One of the few things they got right was saying they'd govern as a minority without doing any deals, they should say that again if necessary.
The reality is that if Corbyn was a better leader and had better advisors he wouldn't have backed a second referendum in the first place.
And he would have refused to countenance a second IndyRef. Simply put the "two referendums, two more years of uncertainty" was absolutely killer. I stressed this point and I think I was right that those pencils wavering over the Labour or Tory boxes across the country decided "No, no more of this" and votes for us.
Labour got the right line on that in the end, i.e. no deals, we will rule as a minority if necessary - but as usual the damage had already been done.
I think people are really missing it's not just Corbyn, it's the entire Labour team, from PR to back office management, to press, to whoever else, they're all terrible. They all need to go immediately.
I did wonder on pb whether there was a Tory plant in Corbyn's private office, so ill-considered were some of the "preaching to the choir" policy announcements that at best gave voters reason to doubt the manifesto was at all practicable, and at worst looked calculated to repel swing voters.
That graph shows why the result of the 2016 referendum has been so important to so many voters, especially in the north of England and why politicians who thought they knew better were punished on Thursday. Voters are increasingly disengaged from politics and politicians. The LibDem election leaflets had all the barcharts based on the Euro election results, forgetting that most British people find the Euro elections as utterly irrelevant and in truth only 2 dogs and 3 cats bother to vote.
Time for the LibDems to come to terms with the fact that people quite like the idea of them repairing roads, running schools and other local services but wouldn't trust them to run the country with a bargepole. Thankfully unless Boris f*cks up, there will not be another Labour government until I am well and truly retired, if ever. We can have IndyRef2 in 2030 which will be a generation after 2014 and then we can have them every 16 years thereafter and make a national holiday out of them so people can have a piss up and some fun. The SNP should look to Canada and follow what happened in Quebec.
I would never have thought it ever to come to pass but a Liberal policy from the 1970s is surely the way ahead, namely a federal UK with a tiny Westminster parliament dealing with major issues like foreign affairs and strong national assemblies in the 4 countries dealing with all the things which really matter to most people in their daily lives.
Will never happen, Westminster have welched too often on their promises, they will have to be forced to give up control of Scotland.
I think I've lost some of my political judgement in this election, although I've made money (by 4 seats). I totally missed what was happening on the Red Wall.
So I put this out there as a question. Does not Boris' emphatic win mean that he will be able to silence the hard-right? He can shift quietly to the centre knowing he's not going to get defeated by 20 ERG types, with whom he does not naturally really agree.
Quite possibily. If JRM is out, that would be evidence of that.
If Cummings is running the show, remember he hates the ERG.
Cummings hates everyone. Politicians, civil servants, professionals; the lot. He's condemned them all in the past.
I think Labour's huge problem is still Scotland. Labour needs to win 30-40 seats in Scotland to get a majority, I don't know how realistic that is. Which means they are forever going to need to be in a Faustian pact with the SNP which is voter poison in middle England. That picture of EdM in Salmond's pocket is still relevant.
I honestly don't see a path to a Labour minority unless they make nice with the Lib Dems and hope the Lib Dems start their fight back against the Tories.
There is no path to power for Labour which includes separatist parties in its coalition. They will get smashed to pieces by the electorate in England and Wales if they enable separatist movements.
I'm really not convinced the SNP argument had much sting this time around. It's one of the few Tory attacks I didn't think landed at all.
Labour should oppose Scottish Independence from day 1. One of the few things they got right was saying they'd govern as a minority without doing any deals, they should say that again if necessary.
I think it did, it was a pile on the "more uncertainty" stuff. Even speaking to my own friends and family, the idea of Labour aligning themselves with a separatist movement was beyond the pale, I have no doubt it lost them a lot of votes.
I think Labour's huge problem is still Scotland. Labour needs to win 30-40 seats in Scotland to get a majority, I don't know how realistic that is. Which means they are forever going to need to be in a Faustian pact with the SNP which is voter poison in middle England. That picture of EdM in Salmond's pocket is still relevant.
I honestly don't see a path to a Labour minority unless they make nice with the Lib Dems and hope the Lib Dems start their fight back against the Tories.
There is no path to power for Labour which includes separatist parties in its coalition. They will get smashed to pieces by the electorate in England and Wales if they enable separatist movements.
Or, they need to absolutely knock it out the park in England and Wales and gain 125 seats next time.
I think I've lost some of my political judgement in this election, although I've made money (by 4 seats). I totally missed what was happening on the Red Wall.
So I put this out there as a question. Does not Boris' emphatic win mean that he will be able to silence the hard-right? He can shift quietly to the centre knowing he's not going to get defeated by 20 ERG types, with whom he does not naturally really agree.
I said throughout this campaign that the new intake who were going to be elected had all signed up to Boris's Deal - and beyond that, they were mostly One Nation Conservatives. I don't expect many to be joining the ERG, which will whither in importance one we leave on 31st January.
Boris will get a boost in popularity for delivering that Leave. 30 months of shameless Remain MPs ensured constant blocking, yet with many of them gone and his new intake in place, Boris gets us out after barely one month. He will have listened, he will have acted. Just what many of these new voters wanted - simply to be listened to. Loud and clear, says Boris - loud and clear.
He can do some radical stuff thereafter if he (and Cummins) turn their minds to it.
I think Labour's huge problem is still Scotland. Labour needs to win 30-40 seats in Scotland to get a majority, I don't know how realistic that is. Which means they are forever going to need to be in a Faustian pact with the SNP which is voter poison in middle England. That picture of EdM in Salmond's pocket is still relevant.
I honestly don't see a path to a Labour minority unless they make nice with the Lib Dems and hope the Lib Dems start their fight back against the Tories.
There is no path to power for Labour which includes separatist parties in its coalition. They will get smashed to pieces by the electorate in England and Wales if they enable separatist movements.
Or, they need to absolutely knock it out the park in England and Wales and gain 125 seats next time.
Nope. Me neither.
And that's what I mean, what's target seat 125 in England and Wales? It must be something ridiculous like Surrey Heath.
Those pictures of Boris sounding triumphant in Sedgefield must be a dagger to the heart of Labour. That's like Corbyn holding a victory rally in Dorset.
SNIP
The Tories now have their work cut out to keep those new voters in the north and midlands. Are you really expecting Brexit and Johnson to transform the lives of people in Workington, Bolsover, Stoke etc? If they do then good luck to them.
If disillusionment with Brexit and Bozo sets in they will desert the Tories as quickly as they arrived. They have not become core Tory voters overnight. There is a reason most of those seats rarely voted for Tories in the past.
The other side of the coin is that the Tory vote only increased by some 300K compared to May's campaign, so lots of former Tory voters have deserted the party to be replaced by WWC leavers.
If Brexit is not a success and the WWC leavers are disillusioned and desert are you convinced that ex-Tory remainers are going to flood back into the party that owns Brexit 100%?
If Labour choose the right leader and the economy performs badly in the post-Brexit years Johnson will be out in 5 years.
Wont be easy. They'll need to be good and lucky. But they dont need to give up on 2024. Or 2023 more likely.
Johnson is really not going to tack left. There is a phenomenal amount of gullibility on here. This mendacious liar will feel no sense of responsibility. He and his party also have no useful ideas for the disadvantaged. The only cohesive philosophical pressure will come from the hardline right-wing thinktanks, and their paymasters in the USA. That is where we are headed, with plenty of culture war to help hold the bulk of his electoral coalition together. Look to the Republicans in the USA and to India, not European Christian Democracy.
It will be an utter shitshow.
Probably. I think Boris very malleable and could do many things if persuaded by advisers it will be popular, regardless of it being left or right. Hes just more likely to listen on things from the right
There is ZERO credible opposition in Scotland, all the London parties appoint sockpuppet dummies as leaders, they follow London orders and get trounced every time. Hard to see the circle breaking until we get a REAL Scottish party from the ashes of Labour/Tories London regional office parties.
I'm unclear from this whether you believe it is even possible for a unionist party to be a real Scottish party.
I believe there can be but not whilst 100% control is held by the Westminster parties. They need to form Scottish based parties that are registered and run from there and get rid of the sockpuppets, they have had that message for over 12 years now but do not seem to care.
I think people are really missing it's not just Corbyn, it's the entire Labour team, from PR to back office management, to press, to whoever else, they're all terrible. They all need to go immediately.
I did wonder on pb whether there was a Tory plant in Corbyn's private office, so ill-considered were some of the "preaching to the choir" policy announcements that at best gave voters reason to doubt the manifesto was at all practicable, and at worst looked calculated to repel swing voters.
If you had 100 top strategists working for the Tories to manufacture their ultimate preferred opponent, the reality of Corbyn would still have topped their brainstorming.
All those Tory Three-quidders ultimately got their money's worth, albeit the 2017 election got lost in the post....
I think Labour's huge problem is still Scotland. Labour needs to win 30-40 seats in Scotland to get a majority, I don't know how realistic that is. Which means they are forever going to need to be in a Faustian pact with the SNP which is voter poison in middle England. That picture of EdM in Salmond's pocket is still relevant.
I honestly don't see a path to a Labour minority unless they make nice with the Lib Dems and hope the Lib Dems start their fight back against the Tories.
There is no path to power for Labour which includes separatist parties in its coalition. They will get smashed to pieces by the electorate in England and Wales if they enable separatist movements.
Or, they need to absolutely knock it out the park in England and Wales and gain 125 seats next time.
Nope. Me neither.
And that's what I mean, what's target seat 125 in England and Wales? It must be something ridiculous like Surrey Heath.
Mini-gloat time: I backed Rebecca Long-Bailey at odds of between 300 and 400 for next Labour leader. She’s now favourite, last traded at 4.5 on Betfair.
Labour shoe-horning her in as the Corbyn Continuity candidate will be a disaster for them, however much good it will do your wallet.
I think Labour's huge problem is still Scotland. Labour needs to win 30-40 seats in Scotland to get a majority, I don't know how realistic that is. Which means they are forever going to need to be in a Faustian pact with the SNP which is voter poison in middle England. That picture of EdM in Salmond's pocket is still relevant.
I honestly don't see a path to a Labour minority unless they make nice with the Lib Dems and hope the Lib Dems start their fight back against the Tories.
There is no path to power for Labour which includes separatist parties in its coalition. They will get smashed to pieces by the electorate in England and Wales if they enable separatist movements.
Or, they need to absolutely knock it out the park in England and Wales and gain 125 seats next time.
Nope. Me neither.
And that's what I mean, what's target seat 125 in England and Wales? It must be something ridiculous like Surrey Heath.
Excluding Scottish seats, it is seat 151 - Derbyshire NE, with a more than 13% swing. Which given it was only lost in 2017, shows how far and how fast its "client state" seats have run away from them.
I think I've lost some of my political judgement in this election, although I've made money (by 4 seats). I totally missed what was happening on the Red Wall.
So I put this out there as a question. Does not Boris' emphatic win mean that he will be able to silence the hard-right? He can shift quietly to the centre knowing he's not going to get defeated by 20 ERG types, with whom he does not naturally really agree.
The early signs are promising. The Conservative party when it succeeds is not dogmatic - Boris knows the reality of economic success lies relatively close to the EU without being in it. That is the current reality and I'd expect him to follow that course over the next 12 months.
I think Labour's huge problem is still Scotland. Labour needs to win 30-40 seats in Scotland to get a majority, I don't know how realistic that is. Which means they are forever going to need to be in a Faustian pact with the SNP which is voter poison in middle England. That picture of EdM in Salmond's pocket is still relevant.
I honestly don't see a path to a Labour minority unless they make nice with the Lib Dems and hope the Lib Dems start their fight back against the Tories.
There is no path to power for Labour which includes separatist parties in its coalition. They will get smashed to pieces by the electorate in England and Wales if they enable separatist movements.
Or, they need to absolutely knock it out the park in England and Wales and gain 125 seats next time.
Nope. Me neither.
And that's what I mean, what's target seat 125 in England and Wales? It must be something ridiculous like Surrey Heath.
If you count out all the SNP-held targets then Labour's 125th most viable target is Telford - and for every laughable one that's "more marginal" than Telford - e.g. Colchester, Ceredigion, Monmouth and Hexham - they need to take something safer. The targets immediately after Telford include such peaches as North East Somerset, Basingstoke, Rochford & Southend East and Chelsea & Fulham.
I think Labour's huge problem is still Scotland. Labour needs to win 30-40 seats in Scotland to get a majority, I don't know how realistic that is. Which means they are forever going to need to be in a Faustian pact with the SNP which is voter poison in middle England. That picture of EdM in Salmond's pocket is still relevant.
I honestly don't see a path to a Labour minority unless they make nice with the Lib Dems and hope the Lib Dems start their fight back against the Tories.
There is no path to power for Labour which includes separatist parties in its coalition. They will get smashed to pieces by the electorate in England and Wales if they enable separatist movements.
Or, they need to absolutely knock it out the park in England and Wales and gain 125 seats next time.
Nope. Me neither.
And that's what I mean, what's target seat 125 in England and Wales? It must be something ridiculous like Surrey Heath.
Each of the big unions and momentum will pick a candidate. The winner will probably be the one momentum supports, unless some of the big unions work together.
To understand the leadership election you need to look into mp sponsorship/affiliation.
The big question is how flexible Union/momentum leadership will be to find a ‘winner’. Unions especially demand a ROI.
My sense is that behind the angry Tweets and the full-scale denial in the press, the far-left senses it may be in danger of losing its grip. The scale of this defeat is so huge and so humiliating that there is no hiding place. The 2017 smokescreen has been erased. The elctorate has delivered its judgment on Corbyn and the Bennite nostalgia he stood for. It is a damning one. My guess is that a lot of wool is falling off a lot of eyes right now among normal Labour members.
The unions will want a winner. It is possible that it is not Unite’s turn. Check out who Unions or GMB might back.
Whoever it is will need to get Lansman on board. I suspect he might be surprisingly flexible.
Landsman and his band do not need to be appeased. They need to be expelled. They are the cause of this disaster. Let them set up their own party or join the SWP. Lansman started out by working for Tony Benn and his Campaign for Labour Democracy which together with Militant nearly killed Labour back in the 1980’s. He’s doing the same now.
I think people are really missing it's not just Corbyn, it's the entire Labour team, from PR to back office management, to press, to whoever else, they're all terrible. They all need to go immediately.
A classic example of this is the vote on the conference floor where the chair said the vote went one way, a party chief next to her said no it went another way. The obvious thing to do in that scenario is have a proper, counted vote but instead they just went with the party chief. The optics are just terrible regardless of who was right or wrong.
I think Labour's huge problem is still Scotland. Labour needs to win 30-40 seats in Scotland to get a majority, I don't know how realistic that is. Which means they are forever going to need to be in a Faustian pact with the SNP which is voter poison in middle England. That picture of EdM in Salmond's pocket is still relevant.
I honestly don't see a path to a Labour minority unless they make nice with the Lib Dems and hope the Lib Dems start their fight back against the Tories.
There is no path to power for Labour which includes separatist parties in its coalition. They will get smashed to pieces by the electorate in England and Wales if they enable separatist movements.
Or, they need to absolutely knock it out the park in England and Wales and gain 125 seats next time.
Nope. Me neither.
And that's what I mean, what's target seat 125 in England and Wales? It must be something ridiculous like Surrey Heath.
That's a good question actually.
Don't know. But I suspect Blairish era seats.
Yep. You've got to go much deeper to hit some of the more traditional Labour seats
Each of the big unions and momentum will pick a candidate. The winner will probably be the one momentum supports, unless some of the big unions work together.
To understand the leadership election you need to look into mp sponsorship/affiliation.
The big question is how flexible Union/momentum leadership will be to find a ‘winner’. Unions especially demand a ROI.
My sense is that behind the angry Tweets and the full-scale denial in the press, the far-left senses it may be in danger of losing its grip. The scale of this defeat is so huge and so humiliating that there is no hiding place. The 2017 smokescreen has been erased. The elctorate has delivered its judgment on Corbyn and the Bennite nostalgia he stood for. It is a damning one. My guess is that a lot of wool is falling off a lot of eyes right now among normal Labour members.
The unions will want a winner. It is possible that it is not Unite’s turn. Check out who Unions or GMB might back.
Whoever it is will need to get Lansman on board. I suspect he might be surprisingly flexible.
Landsman and his band do not need to be appeased. They need to be expelled. They are the cause of this disaster. Let them set up their own party or join the SWP. Lansman started out by working for Tony Benn and his Campaign for Labour Democracy which together with Militant nearly killed Labour back in the 1980’s. He’s doing the same now.
Get rid.
Id imagine just like the 80s the only way to do that is a two stage process of initially appeasement and marginalisation, then a couple of years later kicking them out.
I think some have not looked closely at what Caroline Flint is saying. Primarily she blames Labour Remainers. She also has endorsed (though not, I think, backed) Rebecca Long-Bailey as a viable successor.
She's right about this. It's all very well buying in to the sloppy 'it's all Corbyn's fault' but in reality the reason Labour lost the election is that they lost the northern working class vote. The Labour Red Wall collapsed. It really is that straightforward.
So, yes Labour Remainers lost the election!
Okay, it's a little more nuanced because Corbyn was toxic. However if he'd been an ardent Leaver and had led the party on an unequivocal Brexit ticket, I doubt whether his policies, and even his wretched antisemitism, would have bothered the blokes up north too much?
But it would have lost nearly all the Remainers in the south who we recovered from the LibDems in the course of the last month. Not sure it would have been a net gain, or that there is any position on the the Remain-Leave axis that would have been.
On topic: Consensus down the pub on Friday night was a surprise that turnout was not higher given the importance of the election. I guess a fair number of Labour voters stayed at home.
"Bath's Lib Dem MP Wera Hobhouse has questioned whether the British people are ready to have a first-generation immigrant lead a major political party.
Speaking on BBC One's Sunday Politics West this morning, she said she was regularly referred to as "German-born" Wera Hobhouse, implying that she could not represent the British people.
Even so, she has refused to rule herself out of the contest to succeed Jo Swinson as her party's leader, saying it was a "discussion" she is ready to have.
Wera Hobhouse was born in Hanover, Germany, and moved to the UK in 1990."
I think Labour's huge problem is still Scotland. Labour needs to win 30-40 seats in Scotland to get a majority, I don't know how realistic that is. Which means they are forever going to need to be in a Faustian pact with the SNP which is voter poison in middle England. That picture of EdM in Salmond's pocket is still relevant.
I honestly don't see a path to a Labour minority unless they make nice with the Lib Dems and hope the Lib Dems start their fight back against the Tories.
There is no path to power for Labour which includes separatist parties in its coalition. They will get smashed to pieces by the electorate in England and Wales if they enable separatist movements.
Or, they need to absolutely knock it out the park in England and Wales and gain 125 seats next time.
Nope. Me neither.
And that's what I mean, what's target seat 125 in England and Wales? It must be something ridiculous like Surrey Heath.
That's a good question actually.
Don't know. But I suspect Blairish era seats.
Yep. You've got to go much deeper to hit some of the more traditional Labour seats
Bassetlaw is now safer than Banbury. Nuneaton - which was a much-watched key marginal until a few years ago - is safer than both of those.
I think some have not looked closely at what Caroline Flint is saying. Primarily she blames Labour Remainers. She also has endorsed (though not, I think, backed) Rebecca Long-Bailey as a viable successor.
She's right about this. It's all very well buying in to the sloppy 'it's all Corbyn's fault' but in reality the reason Labour lost the election is that they lost the northern working class vote. The Labour Red Wall collapsed. It really is that straightforward.
So, yes Labour Remainers lost the election!
Okay, it's a little more nuanced because Corbyn was toxic. However if he'd been an ardent Leaver and had led the party on an unequivocal Brexit ticket, I doubt whether his policies, and even his wretched antisemitism, would have bothered the blokes up north too much?
But it would have lost nearly all the Remainers in the south who we recovered from the LibDems in the course of the last month. Not sure it would have been a net gain, or that there is any position on the the Remain-Leave axis that would have been.
(With hindsight) The escape routes for Labour were to get Brexit done via the indicative votes or at the end of Mays leadership when she would have compromised to several Labour demands.
I think I've lost some of my political judgement in this election, although I've made money (by 4 seats). I totally missed what was happening on the Red Wall.
So I put this out there as a question. Does not Boris' emphatic win mean that he will be able to silence the hard-right? He can shift quietly to the centre knowing he's not going to get defeated by 20 ERG types, with whom he does not naturally really agree.
I said throughout this campaign that the new intake who were going to be elected had all signed up to Boris's Deal - and beyond that, they were mostly One Nation Conservatives. I don't expect many to be joining the ERG, which will whither in importance one we leave on 31st January.
Boris will get a boost in popularity for delivering that Leave. 30 months of shameless Remain MPs ensured constant blocking, yet with many of them gone and his new intake in place, Boris gets us out after barely one month. He will have listened, he will have acted. Just what many of these new voters wanted - simply to be listened to. Loud and clear, says Boris - loud and clear.
He can do some radical stuff thereafter if he (and Cummins) turn their minds to it.
Boris will probably back infrastructure spending up north. Any pb deficit hawks should look away now. Boris never had much time for Osborne's austerity or even Hammond's balanced budgets. Shovel-ready rather than oven-ready projects for marginal constituencies left-behind regions.
I think some have not looked closely at what Caroline Flint is saying. Primarily she blames Labour Remainers. She also has endorsed (though not, I think, backed) Rebecca Long-Bailey as a viable successor.
She's right about this. It's all very well buying in to the sloppy 'it's all Corbyn's fault' but in reality the reason Labour lost the election is that they lost the northern working class vote. The Labour Red Wall collapsed. It really is that straightforward.
So, yes Labour Remainers lost the election!
Okay, it's a little more nuanced because Corbyn was toxic. However if he'd been an ardent Leaver and had led the party on an unequivocal Brexit ticket, I doubt whether his policies, and even his wretched antisemitism, would have bothered the blokes up north too much?
But it would have lost nearly all the Remainers in the south who we recovered from the LibDems in the course of the last month. Not sure it would have been a net gain, or that there is any position on the the Remain-Leave axis that would have been.
The biggest signal that Labour, structurally, is screwed was Farage's announcement on election night that he would rebrand the Brexit party as the Reform party and campaign on other issues. I'm surprised that did not get more attention. In former Northern Labour heartlands, the BXP showed it could eat into a substantial section of the Labour vote and it was not a wasted vote. They are here to stay and that will only deflate the Labour vote further.
"Bath's Lib Dem MP Wera Hobhouse has questioned whether the British people are ready to have a first-generation immigrant lead a major political party.
Speaking on BBC One's Sunday Politics West this morning, she said she was regularly referred to as "German-born" Wera Hobhouse, implying that she could not represent the British people.
Even so, she has refused to rule herself out of the contest to succeed Jo Swinson as her party's leader, saying it was a "discussion" she is ready to have.
Wera Hobhouse was born in Hanover, Germany, and moved to the UK in 1990."
I think I've lost some of my political judgement in this election, although I've made money (by 4 seats). I totally missed what was happening on the Red Wall.
So I put this out there as a question. Does not Boris' emphatic win mean that he will be able to silence the hard-right? He can shift quietly to the centre knowing he's not going to get defeated by 20 ERG types, with whom he does not naturally really agree.
Interestingly Caroline Flint also said that T. May planted the seeds for the destruction of the 'red wall' in 2017 implying that Boris merely finished the job. Not sure I fully agree but there were swings in the norhtern seats t the Conservatives in 2017.
I think Labour's huge problem is still Scotland. Labour needs to win 30-40 seats in Scotland to get a majority, I don't know how realistic that is. Which means they are forever going to need to be in a Faustian pact with the SNP which is voter poison in middle England. That picture of EdM in Salmond's pocket is still relevant.
I honestly don't see a path to a Labour minority unless they make nice with the Lib Dems and hope the Lib Dems start their fight back against the Tories.
There is no path to power for Labour which includes separatist parties in its coalition. They will get smashed to pieces by the electorate in England and Wales if they enable separatist movements.
Or, they need to absolutely knock it out the park in England and Wales and gain 125 seats next time.
Nope. Me neither.
And that's what I mean, what's target seat 125 in England and Wales? It must be something ridiculous like Surrey Heath.
That's a good question actually.
Don't know. But I suspect Blairish era seats.
Yep. You've got to go much deeper to hit some of the more traditional Labour seats
Bassetlaw is now safer than Banbury. Nuneaton - which was a much-watched key marginal until a few years ago - is safer than both of those.
Interesting point actually. People talking about how Labour recapture these lost traditional voters (and by extension seats). But on a simplistic "target the easiest seats first" basis - is this actually going to be an optimal strategy? There may actually be more mileage in looking elsewhere (both at seats and the voters to target).
There must be huge potential for first time incumbency effects in these seats as well - for MPs prepared to put in the hard yards (and I imagine that they will be under instruction to seriously cultivate their new electorates). It was the approach Labour took in 1997 (with the added bonus that they weren't hanging around Westminster getting bored and/or making mischief - a problem with large majorities and not enough jobs/work to go around).
I think I've lost some of my political judgement in this election, although I've made money (by 4 seats). I totally missed what was happening on the Red Wall.
So I put this out there as a question. Does not Boris' emphatic win mean that he will be able to silence the hard-right? He can shift quietly to the centre knowing he's not going to get defeated by 20 ERG types, with whom he does not naturally really agree.
I said throughout this campaign that the new intake who were going to be elected had all signed up to Boris's Deal - and beyond that, they were mostly One Nation Conservatives. I don't expect many to be joining the ERG, which will whither in importance one we leave on 31st January.
Boris will get a boost in popularity for delivering that Leave. 30 months of shameless Remain MPs ensured constant blocking, yet with many of them gone and his new intake in place, Boris gets us out after barely one month. He will have listened, he will have acted. Just what many of these new voters wanted - simply to be listened to. Loud and clear, says Boris - loud and clear.
He can do some radical stuff thereafter if he (and Cummins) turn their minds to it.
Boris will probably back infrastructure spending up north. Any pb deficit hawks should look away now. Boris never had much time for Osborne's austerity or even Hammond's balanced budgets. Shovel-ready rather than oven-ready projects for marginal constituencies left-behind regions.
And Hard-Hat Boris will be hugely popular, driving another digger to break ground on another Big Scheme. Victorian Era Redux for many of these places that have since damn all investment since.
I'm just hoping (and working) for one of those to be the Tidal Lagoons in Wales.
Mini-gloat time: I backed Rebecca Long-Bailey at odds of between 300 and 400 for next Labour leader. She’s now favourite, last traded at 4.5 on Betfair.
Labour shoe-horning her in as the Corbyn Continuity candidate will be a disaster for them, however much good it will do your wallet.
Try the Youtube test: a minute each of a few recent appearances. Do it for all the likely contenders and there really are not many credible successors. Boris has screen presence; he is charismatic. Even if individual voters think he is a twerp, they listen to him. Which of the Labour would-be leaders makes you want to listen for longer?
Each of the big unions and momentum will pick a candidate. The winner will probably be the one momentum supports, unless some of the big unions work together.
To understand the leadership election you need to look into mp sponsorship/affiliation.
The big question is how flexible Union/momentum leadership will be to find a ‘winner’. Unions especially demand a ROI.
My sense is that behind the angry Tweets and the full-scale denial in the press, the far-left senses it may be in danger of losing its grip. The scale of this defeat is so huge and so humiliating that there is no hiding place. The 2017 smokescreen has been erased. The elctorate has delivered its judgment on Corbyn and the Bennite nostalgia he stood for. It is a damning one. My guess is that a lot of wool is falling off a lot of eyes right now among normal Labour members.
The unions will want a winner. It is possible that it is not Unite’s turn. Check out who Unions or GMB might back.
Whoever it is will need to get Lansman on board. I suspect he might be surprisingly flexible.
Landsman and his band do not need to be appeased. They need to be expelled. They are the cause of this disaster. Let them set up their own party or join the SWP. Lansman started out by working for Tony Benn and his Campaign for Labour Democracy which together with Militant nearly killed Labour back in the 1980’s. He’s doing the same now.
Get rid.
They are very committed to that project of destruction it seems.
"Bath's Lib Dem MP Wera Hobhouse has questioned whether the British people are ready to have a first-generation immigrant lead a major political party.
Speaking on BBC One's Sunday Politics West this morning, she said she was regularly referred to as "German-born" Wera Hobhouse, implying that she could not represent the British people.
Even so, she has refused to rule herself out of the contest to succeed Jo Swinson as her party's leader, saying it was a "discussion" she is ready to have.
Wera Hobhouse was born in Hanover, Germany, and moved to the UK in 1990."
"Bath's Lib Dem MP Wera Hobhouse has questioned whether the British people are ready to have a first-generation immigrant lead a major political party.
Speaking on BBC One's Sunday Politics West this morning, she said she was regularly referred to as "German-born" Wera Hobhouse, implying that she could not represent the British people.
Even so, she has refused to rule herself out of the contest to succeed Jo Swinson as her party's leader, saying it was a "discussion" she is ready to have.
Wera Hobhouse was born in Hanover, Germany, and moved to the UK in 1990."
There are a number of posters on here with similar views although most put it a little less crudely.
Some of us are in fact much cruder about it.
I wasn't thinking of you as most of your posts are deliberately phrased to perk up some of the waning/weaker threads. We've all been known to take the bait.
They need to ditch her from the front benches as quickly as they can. She is the epitome of the problem.
I have never understood why anyone rates her. She is rude, arrogant, pompous and dishonest. Who could forget her bizarre claims that she was a Colonel in the British Army?
However, she still shone compared to Comrade Corbyn.
Those pictures of Boris sounding triumphant in Sedgefield must be a dagger to the heart of Labour. That's like Corbyn holding a victory rally in Dorset.
SNIP
The Tories now have their work cut out to keep those new voters in the north and midlands. Are you really expecting Brexit and Johnson to transform the lives of people in Workington, Bolsover, Stoke etc? If they do then good luck to them.
If disillusionment with Brexit and Bozo sets in they will desert the Tories as quickly as they arrived. They have not become core Tory voters overnight. There is a reason most of those seats rarely voted for Tories in the past.
The other side of the coin is that the Tory vote only increased by some 300K compared to May's campaign, so lots of former Tory voters have deserted the party to be replaced by WWC leavers.
If Brexit is not a success and the WWC leavers are disillusioned and desert are you convinced that ex-Tory remainers are going to flood back into the party that owns Brexit 100%?
If Labour choose the right leader and the economy performs badly in the post-Brexit years Johnson will be out in 5 years.
Wont be easy. They'll need to be good and lucky. But they dont need to give up on 2024. Or 2023 more likely.
Johnson is really not going to tack left. There is a phenomenal amount of gullibility on here. This mendacious liar will feel no sense of responsibility. He and his party also have no useful ideas for the disadvantaged. The only cohesive philosophical pressure will come from the hardline right-wing thinktanks, and their paymasters in the USA. That is where we are headed, with plenty of culture war to help hold the bulk of his electoral coalition together. Look to the Republicans in the USA and to India, not European Christian Democracy.
It will be an utter shitshow.
Probably. I think Boris very malleable and could do many things if persuaded by advisers it will be popular, regardless of it being left or right. Hes just more likely to listen on things from the right
There is ZERO credible opposition in Scotland, all the rties.
I'm unclear from this whether you believe it is even possible for a unionist party to be a real Scottish party.
I believe there can be but not whilst 100% control is held by the Westminster parties. They need to form Scottish based parties that are registered and run from there and get rid of the sockpuppets, they have had that message for over 12 years now but do not seem to care.
They definitely need to do something.
Saying no to a ref and expecting the issue to go away wont cut it.
One really surprising thing about the Labour post-mortems: how many of them mention Corbyn's association with the IRA, and its toxicity in working class seats
We dismissed this blemish, on here, as priced in and irrelevant. We were totally wrong, voters hadn't really noticed the taint before, but this time they took a proper look at Corbyn's backstory, and they were repelled.
The only pb-er who mentioned this possibility before the vote, I believe, was Southam.
They need to ditch her from the front benches as quickly as they can. She is the epitome of the problem.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Flint made this up but let’s be honest given Thornberry’s track record it’s also entirely believable. It’s a shame the worst Labour have to offer are the ones in the safest seats.
On the plus side I spoke to someone v close to Boris last night who very much expected the boundary changes to go through now.
I also think Boris is going to surprise a lot of people with very large investment in green and renewable energy projects.
To be fair to him, this is one very important way in which he is perhaps not ‘Britain Trump’. I sincerely hope that the UK stays positively engaged in the global climate debate.
One really surprising thing about the Labour post-mortems: how many of them mention Corbyn's association with the IRA, and its toxicity in working class seats
We dismissed this blemish, on here, as priced in and irrelevant. We were totally wrong, voters hadn't really noticed the taint before, but this time they took a proper look at Corbyn's backstory, and they were repelled.
The only pb-er who mentioned this possibility before the vote, I believe, was Southam.
I was taken aback by the visceral hatred of him when the Vox Pop'ed Burley football fans yesterday.....he doesn't sing the national anthem, he hates the Queen, he supported the IRA was what was repeated.
I think what a lot of the Maomentum lot didn't quite realise is that Flat Cap Fred is incredibly patriotic and they respect the Queen.
Mini-gloat time: I backed Rebecca Long-Bailey at odds of between 300 and 400 for next Labour leader. She’s now favourite, last traded at 4.5 on Betfair.
Labour shoe-horning her in as the Corbyn Continuity candidate will be a disaster for them, however much good it will do your wallet.
Try the Youtube test: a minute each of a few recent appearances. Do it for all the likely contenders and there really are not many credible successors. Boris has screen presence; he is charismatic. Even if individual voters think he is a twerp, they listen to him. Which of the Labour would-be leaders makes you want to listen for longer?
I had hopes for Nandy until I saw her just now. Christ, she's nearly as charisma-free as Starmer.
They need to ditch her from the front benches as quickly as they can. She is the epitome of the problem.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Flint made this up but let’s be honest given Thornberry’s track record it’s also entirely believable. It’s a shame the worst Labour have to offer are the ones in the safest seats.
On the plus side I spoke to someone v close to Boris last night who very much expected the boundary changes to go through now.
One really surprising thing about the Labour post-mortems: how many of them mention Corbyn's association with the IRA, and its toxicity in working class seats
We dismissed this blemish, on here, as priced in and irrelevant. We were totally wrong, voters hadn't really noticed the taint before, but this time they took a proper look at Corbyn's backstory, and they were repelled.
The only pb-er who mentioned this possibility before the vote, I believe, was Southam.
The question is who and what the Conservatives targeted in their late social media blitz, after they'd exhaustively tested what messages worked. Was it the IRA, Venezuela or even Brexit? Or was it more positive messages like investment in jobs, police and hospitals? That will be the key to understanding this election.
One really surprising thing about the Labour post-mortems: how many of them mention Corbyn's association with the IRA, and its toxicity in working class seats
We dismissed this blemish, on here, as priced in and irrelevant. We were totally wrong, voters hadn't really noticed the taint before, but this time they took a proper look at Corbyn's backstory, and they were repelled.
The only pb-er who mentioned this possibility before the vote, I believe, was Southam.
I was taken aback by the visceral hatred of him when the Vox Pop'ed Burley football fans yesterday.....he doesn't sing the national anthem, he hates the Queen, he supported the IRA.
I think what a lot of the Maomentum lot didn't quite realise is that Flat Cap Fred is incredibly patriotic and they respect the Queen.
Yes, see here
"Talking to regulars the same allegations surface again and again. That Corbyn consorted with the IRA, that he is soft on terrorists. That he has remained silent on prosecuting veterans over the Bloody Sunday killings."
There's a dozen other articles which say exactly the same, and from all over Britain
Whoever is the next Labour leader, their patriotism has to be absolutely unquestionable, and they have to be more monarchist than the Queen. The same way Tories have to go on an on and on about loving the NHS, to the point of nausea.
There is an instinctive mistrust which must be allayed from the get-go.
Do Labour have such a candidate? Dan Jarvis? Is he still with us?
They need to ditch her from the front benches as quickly as they can. She is the epitome of the problem.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Flint made this up but let’s be honest given Thornberry’s track record it’s also entirely believable. It’s a shame the worst Labour have to offer are the ones in the safest seats.
On the plus side I spoke to someone v close to Boris last night who very much expected the boundary changes to go through now.
One really surprising thing about the Labour post-mortems: how many of them mention Corbyn's association with the IRA, and its toxicity in working class seats
We dismissed this blemish, on here, as priced in and irrelevant. We were totally wrong, voters hadn't really noticed the taint before, but this time they took a proper look at Corbyn's backstory, and they were repelled.
The only pb-er who mentioned this possibility before the vote, I believe, was Southam.
I heard several vox pops over the last few days from "ex-Labour voters" who have mentioned the IRA, terrorism, or more generally security. Now they might be doing a bit of rationalisating their vote after the fact, but it does seem to have sunk in.
I have a bit of pet theory about this, that the public's view of character or policies doesn't get slowly chipped away, but is more like an avalanche. That very quickly someone can go from being sound in the public's opinion to a wrong'un. It certainly looks like something along those lines happened during the campaing this time.
I have just watched Novaro Media reporting on the loss of Blyth Valley.
The lack of self awareness of the girl with the microphone is astounding. She blames everyone for voting other than for Labour. But I particularly groaned at her comment that she had been to Stoke South on campaign. A seat Labour were never going to win. Why was she not in Stoke North where they might have had a faint chance?
These people are completely divorced from reality. And yet they are so self-righteous and holier than thou they simply cannot deal with their own huge failures.
So I've finally done all of the maths, this is possibly the most successful political betting event I've ever had, better than Trump or Brexit. It really did feel different to 2017, but I'm glad that the markets continually bought into the 2017 theme because it gave a lot of betting opportunities!
Labour are facing the prospect of becoming irrelevant in UK politics, unless they can detach momentum
It has happened in Scotland and the earthquake last thursday has put them perilously close to the same in England and Wales, apart from London
If Boris does a SNP in England and Wales over the next five years, he could be looking at 15 years as PM
The SNP can always define itself against Westminster. Once we are out of the EU who will Johnson's bogeymen be? He controls it all.
Ha. You really think they will struggle in that respect? Look at Trump. And weep.
The Democrats control the House in the US and there is a constitutional separation of powers. If he really wants to Johnson can smash up the civil service, mess around with the courts and abolish the BBC.
Not really this, because why? Any tory claiming that LOL the more loopy and Corbyny and therefore unelectable the better, needs to explain why he was bemerding himself with fear, and *not* investing 6 figure sums at 1.6 on a con maj, all thursday. So it isn't much of a test if it is meant to mean, go for the Blairiest one.
They need to ditch her from the front benches as quickly as they can. She is the epitome of the problem.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Flint made this up but let’s be honest given Thornberry’s track record it’s also entirely believable. It’s a shame the worst Labour have to offer are the ones in the safest seats.
On the plus side I spoke to someone v close to Boris last night who very much expected the boundary changes to go through now.
With reduction to 600?
Has anyone actually crunched the numbers? A lot of Tory seats with smallish electorates now...
So Dom Cummings will reinvent government with radical reforms.
Why am I very very worried about letting this character lose on our system of government.
He's a fucking genius. No one is sniggering about *Classic Dom* any more.
Let him do what he likes.
He didn’t run the campaign.
He did and he didn’t. He knew the right messages and who to target them with, he also knew the best time for an election and that a deal was required first. I’d say it’s as much a win for Dom as it was for Boris and Isaac
One really surprising thing about the Labour post-mortems: how many of them mention Corbyn's association with the IRA, and its toxicity in working class seats
We dismissed this blemish, on here, as priced in and irrelevant. We were totally wrong, voters hadn't really noticed the taint before, but this time they took a proper look at Corbyn's backstory, and they were repelled.
The only pb-er who mentioned this possibility before the vote, I believe, was Southam.
I was taken aback by the visceral hatred of him when the Vox Pop'ed Burley football fans yesterday.....he doesn't sing the national anthem, he hates the Queen, he supported the IRA.
I think what a lot of the Maomentum lot didn't quite realise is that Flat Cap Fred is incredibly patriotic and they respect the Queen.
Yes, see here
"Talking to regulars the same allegations surface again and again. That Corbyn consorted with the IRA, that he is soft on terrorists. That he has remained silent on prosecuting veterans over the Bloody Sunday killings."
There's a dozen other articles which say exactly the same, and from all over Britain
Whoever is the next Labour leader, their patriotism has to be absolutely unquestionable, and they have to be more monarchist than the Queen. The same way Tories have to go on an on and on about loving the NHS, to the point of nausea.
There is an instinctive mistrust which must be allayed from the get-go.
Do Labour have such a candidate? Dan Jarvis? Is he still with us?
Sometimes you don’t need to put something at the front of a campaign for the right people to notice it. Tell them things they don’t know, not things they do.
Comments
At the same time, you can’t just ignore those voters completely - ignoring a substantial portion of your electoral coalition always leads to tears before bedtime in the end (look at what’s happening now for a good example!) but I agree that they are easier to keep on board at this stage. It’s about having good progressive social policies without making it the be-all-and-end-all of your offering, and realising you have to compromise.
Good luck to all those joining up and actively trying to make Labour into a fighting force again.
So, yes Labour Remainers lost the election!
Okay, it's a little more nuanced because Corbyn was toxic. However if he'd been an ardent Leaver and had led the party on an unequivocal Brexit ticket, I doubt whether his policies, and even his wretched antisemitism, would have bothered the blokes up north too much?
I honestly don't see a path to a Labour minority unless they make nice with the Lib Dems and hope the Lib Dems start their fight back against the Tories.
There is no path to power for Labour which includes separatist parties in its coalition. They will get smashed to pieces by the electorate in England and Wales if they enable separatist movements.
So I put this out there as a question. Does not Boris' emphatic win mean that he will be able to silence the hard-right? He can shift quietly to the centre knowing he's not going to get defeated by 20 ERG types, with whom he does not naturally really agree.
If Cummings is running the show, remember he hates the ERG.
Labour should oppose Scottish Independence from day 1. One of the few things they got right was saying they'd govern as a minority without doing any deals, they should say that again if necessary.
Nope. Me neither.
That's exactly what's required now.
Boris will get a boost in popularity for delivering that Leave. 30 months of shameless Remain MPs ensured constant blocking, yet with many of them gone and his new intake in place, Boris gets us out after barely one month. He will have listened, he will have acted. Just what many of these new voters wanted - simply to be listened to. Loud and clear, says Boris - loud and clear.
He can do some radical stuff thereafter if he (and Cummins) turn their minds to it.
All those Tory Three-quidders ultimately got their money's worth, albeit the 2017 election got lost in the post....
Don't know. But I suspect Blairish era seats.
If not I'll try and make a csv later today with country and regional codes that can be turned into a table or used in Tableau as a data source.
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/labour
Right up to the Scottish border. Then his lucky rabbit foot stops working.
Get rid.
"Bath's Lib Dem MP Wera Hobhouse has questioned whether the British people are ready to have a first-generation immigrant lead a major political party.
Speaking on BBC One's Sunday Politics West this morning, she said she was regularly referred to as "German-born" Wera Hobhouse, implying that she could not represent the British people.
Even so, she has refused to rule herself out of the contest to succeed Jo Swinson as her party's leader, saying it was a "discussion" she is ready to have.
Wera Hobhouse was born in Hanover, Germany, and moved to the UK in 1990."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/election-2019-50798916
The idea of us being ruled over by a Hanoverian - preposterous!
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1206185558206222340?s=20
They need to ditch her from the front benches as quickly as they can. She is the epitome of the problem.
There must be huge potential for first time incumbency effects in these seats as well - for MPs prepared to put in the hard yards (and I imagine that they will be under instruction to seriously cultivate their new electorates). It was the approach Labour took in 1997 (with the added bonus that they weren't hanging around Westminster getting bored and/or making mischief - a problem with large majorities and not enough jobs/work to go around).
I'm just hoping (and working) for one of those to be the Tidal Lagoons in Wales.
However, she still shone compared to Comrade Corbyn.
Saying no to a ref and expecting the issue to go away wont cut it.
Corbyn was loathed. Johnson wasn't loathed.
Why am I very very worried about letting this character lose on our system of government.
We dismissed this blemish, on here, as priced in and irrelevant. We were totally wrong, voters hadn't really noticed the taint before, but this time they took a proper look at Corbyn's backstory, and they were repelled.
The only pb-er who mentioned this possibility before the vote, I believe, was Southam.
Let him do what he likes.
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1206195049211535361
On the plus side I spoke to someone v close to Boris last night who very much expected the boundary changes to go through now.
I sincerely hope that the UK stays positively engaged in the global climate debate.
I think what a lot of the Maomentum lot didn't quite realise is that Flat Cap Fred is incredibly patriotic and they respect the Queen.
We have had periods of real investment in this country in the past from the Victorians to the building of the motorway networks decades ago etc.
What we don't need is Browns "investment" which was just pay rises for public sector staff which left no legacy.
They are in a right bloody pickle
No Tory candidate for Greater Manchester Mayor yet.
"Talking to regulars the same allegations surface again and again. That Corbyn consorted with the IRA, that he is soft on terrorists. That he has remained silent on prosecuting veterans over the Bloody Sunday killings."
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/15/blair-old-seat-sedgefield-rejected-corbyn-perceived-unpatriotic
There's a dozen other articles which say exactly the same, and from all over Britain
Whoever is the next Labour leader, their patriotism has to be absolutely unquestionable, and they have to be more monarchist than the Queen. The same way Tories have to go on an on and on about loving the NHS, to the point of nausea.
There is an instinctive mistrust which must be allayed from the get-go.
Do Labour have such a candidate? Dan Jarvis? Is he still with us?
I have a bit of pet theory about this, that the public's view of character or policies doesn't get slowly chipped away, but is more like an avalanche. That very quickly someone can go from being sound in the public's opinion to a wrong'un. It certainly looks like something along those lines happened during the campaing this time.
What was it? Neo-endogenous posterical emission theory?
Or was that Mr Broon?