The Tories polled better with skilled working class and lower middle class voters than upper middle class voters last night, though they won both. The Tories will thus be a less neoliberal and pro big business party and government than they were in the Cameron years and a more socially conservative, pro small business and big spending one.
Labour now has to decide if it wants to move back to the centre after its rout under Corbyn under a leader like Keir Starmer or Jess Phillips or stick with the left under a Burgon or Long Bailey and gift Boris and the Tories another decade in power. The LDs best strategy is likely to hope Labour stays left and stick to the liberal centre
The LDs best results have always been with the other parties close to the centre. If the others are extreme, especially Labour extreme, they get squeezed heavily.
If I were the LDs I'd be very worried about those Ashcroft numbers.
Huge numbers of their voters voted for them reluctantly and negatively.
That doesn't bode well.
That's the whole danger of pitching up on the wrong side of losing battle. The LDs are claiming small comfort from an improved share of the vote, but once we leave in some form much of that vote has little reason to hang around.
I guess the Tory 2017 remain vote is up for grabs at the next GE. By then those will judge Johnson on a 5 year record rather than personality or his manifesto. If he delivers there are plenty of LD2019 votes to win back, if he doesnt there are plenty of votes to lose.
The Tories won't suffer him for long if he's not on their game.
Did I catch just a hint of withdrawal from the general contempt with which Boris has been showered on here? Is he just maybe not so foolish after all despite being dishonest, immoral and a general retrobate?
Boris has won and won big. He has done so by being brave, willing to gamble and being ruthlessly disciplined about his message. It is a measure of his achievements that so many still seem to regard him as a bumbling fool. This is a wolf in sheep’s clothing. I think that we will see what Cameron could have done had he been arsed.
Hell of a gamble, but you've got to give it to him. Campaign was tightly controlled, let Labour walk into bear traps. Knew who was poor in the media and kept them out of sign (JRM etc).
What happens now is what he wants his legacy to be, and also whether he wants more than one term. Labour are mortally wounded, so if he can put together a decent domestic policy agenda post Brexit, he could probably see off a mini Corbyn Labour leader in '24.
If may be that Jo Swinson is the person most directly responsible for Brexit.
She pushed hard for an early election, and eventually with the SNP shamed Labour into supporting it too, and it couldn't have gone more wrong for her.
Hubris to the power of ten.
I disagree the only way to stop Brexit was one last throw of the dice . You were never going to get a referendum without a government willing to put the legislation through .
The EU only agreed to an extension because an election was on the cards . And even if they had given that without an election what were they supposed to do in January if Parliament was still in a zombie state of not passing the deal and not having an election.
The EU have better things to do with their time then sit there watching MPs never agree to anything .
And the way Swinson could have found a government to put a referendum through is by working with Labour. Swinson's refusal to work with Labour was her great blunder.
Well you have to 😆 it’s all Swinson fault that is about the worst case of denial I’ve seen.
Ashcroft. I don't know how accurate this is for postal votes, but it seems far higher than expected:
"Postal votes
We found 38% saying they had voted by post. The Conservatives won 48% of postal votes, with 29% going to Labour and 13% to the Lib Dems. 41% of Conservative and Lib Dem voters voted by post, compared to 34% of Labour and 33% of SNP voters."
Maybe that helped Boris, and explains why his majority was more likely the first MRP rather than the second.
I think this explains why the 2nd MRP is usually worse than the first. Pollsters aren't allowed to disclose info about postal votes, so any respondent who has already voted by post has to be discarded. So the 2nd MRP only covered non-postal-voters, and introduced a slight bias accordingly.
If may be that Jo Swinson is the person most directly responsible for Brexit.
She pushed hard for an early election, and eventually with the SNP shamed Labour into supporting it too, and it couldn't have gone more wrong for her.
Hubris to the power of ten.
I actually agree with you for once. She got exactly what she deserved.
One line that I wish interviewers talking to Jo Swinson during the campaign had taken, but which was, AFAIK, mysteriously completely overlooked is how much she personally benefited from the Leave result and how little gratitude she showed.
Look at the facts: She lost her seat in 2015. Without the Leave win, there would have been no 2017 election. She wouldn't even have been an MP, let alone party leader.
She owed her entire career progression over the last few years to Brexit.
Yet Jo failed to acknowledge and recognise this inconvenient truth, while pushing a hard Remain line because it better suited her image.
But you can't rely on getting lucky forever. Given that she'd already lost this seat to the Nats and the febrile Pro/Anti Brexit atmosphere that she herself stoked up, it wasn't hugely surprising that there would be another opportunity to drop the seat to them, and that being the case, there was always a chance it would happen.
I don't dislike Swinson, but she's terrible at politics and not even very good at reality.
The parties should all take a breath. Johnson can do whatever he likes because he was elected with a large majority. Understanding why has to be the first task.
From a LibDem perspective we gained 1.3m votes and lost seats. The obvious task is to build local organisations to win council seats and then councils and MPs. In other words what Ashdown and Kennedy did before that Orange Book wazzock Clegg binned it all
How well did that do for you in Westminster terms? You were good at by-elections, crap at GEs as I recall.
The Tories polled better with skilled working class and lower middle class voters than upper middle class voters last night, though they won both. The Tories will thus be a less neoliberal and pro big business party and government than they were in the Cameron years and a more socially conservative, pro small business and big spending one.
Labour now has to decide if it wants to move back to the centre after its rout under Corbyn under a leader like Keir Starmer or Jess Phillips or stick with the left under a Burgon or Long Bailey and gift Boris and the Tories another decade in power. The LDs best strategy is likely to hope Labour stays left and stick to the liberal centre
The LDs best results have always been with the other parties close to the centre. If the others are extreme, especially Labour extreme, they get squeezed heavily.
If I were the LDs I'd be very worried about those Ashcroft numbers.
Huge numbers of their voters voted for them reluctantly and negatively.
That doesn't bode well.
That's the whole danger of pitching up on the wrong side of losing battle. The LDs are claiming small comfort from an improved share of the vote, but once we leave in some form much of that vote has little reason to hang around.
I guess the Tory 2017 remain vote is up for grabs at the next GE. By then those will judge Johnson on a 5 year record rather than personality or his manifesto. If he delivers there are plenty of LD2019 votes to win back, if he doesnt there are plenty of votes to lose.
The Tories won't suffer him for long if he's not on their game.
On his game for who? He may do very well for one group and badly for another. It will be very difficult if not impossible to do well for all his coalition, no idea what his prioritisation will be between the traditional and new tories.
With this 80 seat majority Boris can bin FTPA and finally get on with boundary reform.
I was thinking about the boundary changes. Of course Boris can push them through but does he have an option to ask the Electoral Commission to do a further review and still get that implemented before 2024?
With this 80 seat majority Boris can bin FTPA and finally get on with boundary reform.
I was thinking about the boundary changes. Of course Boris can push them through but does he have an option to ask the Electoral Commission to do a further review and still get that implemented before 2024?
If he's sensible he'll get them to start afresh but with no reduction, and perhaps change the law so there can be no future partisanship regarding the boundaries. Blocked by the LDs and Labour for too long.
You always take the most negative possible slant and the most pro EU position you can.
You desperately don't want to be proved wrong (and will no doubt argue that whatever happens proves you were right regardless) but I now expect a good deal we can all get behind.
Can I ask a straight question? Do you genuinely think having a border down the Irish Sea where goods are checked in and out of Northern Ireland is a) a good idea and b) better than what exists now?
Because that's what Johnson has agreed to, although he denies it. The denial is telling in itself. This will be a hard treaty agreement with sanctions for breach.
The Irish border issue is pumped up out of all proportion. The Nats are now the majority and do you think they'll think twice about fucking off? I'm with the Nats.
You didn't really answer my question. You don't have to. But let me answer it myself. I think it is massively problematic at several levels. Starting with consent. No-one in Northern Ireland has agreed to this arrangement. They weren't consulted. Johnson didn't see any reason why they should be consulted. It adds red tape cost to business and encourages smuggling. It's potentially a security risk. It doesn't address a problem that exists now.
With this 80 seat majority Boris can bin FTPA and finally get on with boundary reform.
I was thinking about the boundary changes. Of course Boris can push them through but does he have an option to ask the Electoral Commission to do a further review and still get that implemented before 2024?
If may be that Jo Swinson is the person most directly responsible for Brexit.
She pushed hard for an early election, and eventually with the SNP shamed Labour into supporting it too, and it couldn't have gone more wrong for her.
Hubris to the power of ten.
I actually agree with you for once. She got exactly what she deserved.
One line that I wish interviewers talking to Jo Swinson during the campaign had taken, but which was, AFAIK, mysteriously completely overlooked is how much she personally benefited from the Leave result and how little gratitude she showed.
Isn't that a bit like criticising Winston Churchill for not showing more gratitude to Hitler for reviving his political career?
Can I ask a straight question? Do you genuinely think having a border down the Irish Sea where goods are checked in and out of Northern Ireland is a) a good idea and b) better than what exists now?
Because that's what Johnson has agreed to, although he denies it. The denial is telling in itself. This will be a hard treaty agreement with sanctions for breach.
The Irish border issue is pumped up out of all proportion. The Nats are now the majority and do you think they'll think twice about fucking off? I'm with the Nats.
The demographic shift in NI makes it clear that if it is to remain part of the UK it needs to be based on something other than sectarian loyalties. A province that is the link between the UK and EU, like a Celtic Hong Kong, has the potential to be prosperous, peaceful, and become acceptable in the long term to all parties. So I think Boris's deal is going to be brilliant for NI.
With this 80 seat majority Boris can bin FTPA and finally get on with boundary reform.
Boundary changes might not necessarily be a good idea for the Tories because they would probably give more seats to London and other cities since there's been an uptick in the percentage of the population living there.
The Tories polled better with skilled working class and lower middle class voters than upper middle class voters last night, though they won both. The Tories will thus be a less neoliberal and pro big business party and government than they were in the Cameron years and a more socially conservative, pro small business and big spending one.
Labour now has to decide if it wants to move back to the centre after its rout under Corbyn under a leader like Keir Starmer or Jess Phillips or stick with the left under a Burgon or Long Bailey and gift Boris and the Tories another decade in power. The LDs best strategy is likely to hope Labour stays left and stick to the liberal centre
The LDs best results have always been with the other parties close to the centre. If the others are extreme, especially Labour extreme, they get squeezed heavily.
If I were the LDs I'd be very worried about those Ashcroft numbers.
Huge numbers of their voters voted for them reluctantly and negatively.
That doesn't bode well.
That's the whole danger of pitching up on the wrong side of losing battle. The LDs are claiming small comfort from an improved share of the vote, but once we leave in some form much of that vote has little reason to hang around.
I guess the Tory 2017 remain vote is up for grabs at the next GE. By then those will judge Johnson on a 5 year record rather than personality or his manifesto. If he delivers there are plenty of LD2019 votes to win back, if he doesnt there are plenty of votes to lose.
The Tories won't suffer him for long if he's not on their game.
On his game for who? He may do very well for one group and badly for another. It will be very difficult if not impossible to do well for all his coalition, no idea what his prioritisation will be between the traditional and new tories.
Me neither but he and we will soon find out, and when he finds out he'll find himself on a pretty short rein unless he's knocking it out of the park. Sorry about the metaphor attack, happens sometimes.
With this 80 seat majority Boris can bin FTPA and finally get on with boundary reform.
Boundary changes might not necessarily be a good idea for the Tories because they would probably give more seats to London and other cities since there's been an uptick in the percentage of the population living there.
They shouldn't care who it gives an advantage to, it's the right thing to do.
The parties should all take a breath. Johnson can do whatever he likes because he was elected with a large majority. Understanding why has to be the first task.
From a LibDem perspective we gained 1.3m votes and lost seats. The obvious task is to build local organisations to win council seats and then councils and MPs. In other words what Ashdown and Kennedy did before that Orange Book wazzock Clegg binned it all
Exactly that is what WE are about hard work, grass roots representation, fair vote, thinking global and acting local, tackling environmental issues from dog shit to climate change and challenging the so called complacent bog parties in local government to smarten and clean their act up.
With this 80 seat majority Boris can bin FTPA and finally get on with boundary reform.
I was thinking about the boundary changes. Of course Boris can push them through but does he have an option to ask the Electoral Commission to do a further review and still get that implemented before 2024?
If he's sensible he'll get them to start afresh but with no reduction, and perhaps change the law so there can be no future partisanship regarding the boundaries. Blocked by the LDs and Labour for too long.
Yeah I think reducing seats would be unwise, no need to provide oxygen to FPTP reformers.
You always take the most negative possible slant and the most pro EU position you can.
You desperately don't want to be proved wrong (and will no doubt argue that whatever happens proves you were right regardless) but I now expect a good deal we can all get behind.
Can I ask a straight question? Do you genuinely think having a border down the Irish Sea where goods are checked in and out of Northern Ireland is a) a good idea and b) better than what exists now?
Because that's what Johnson has agreed to, although he denies it. The denial is telling in itself. This will be a hard treaty agreement with sanctions for breach.
The Irish border issue is pumped up out of all proportion. The Nats are now the majority and do you think they'll think twice about fucking off? I'm with the Nats.
You didn't really answer my question. You don't have to. But let me answer it myself. I think it is massively problematic at several levels. Starting with consent. No-one in Northern Ireland has agreed to this arrangement. They weren't consulted. Johnson didn't see any reason why they should be consulted. It adds red tape cost to business and encourages smuggling. It's potentially a security risk. It doesn't address a problem that exists now.
I did. The issue is pumped up and, in the overall scheme of things only really matters to NI which is now in thrall to Nats who will, I think fuck off asap. How they do it is neither here nor there to the rest of the UK.
The Ashcroft polling casts some light on the question of how Brexit Party voters would have voted if the BXP hadn't been standing in their constituency.
When those who voted for the BXP on Thursday were asked "which of the following do you think would make the best PM", 75% chose Johnson and 4% Corbyn.
I’m guessing that undefined capital spending in the manifesto is going to materialise in a very northern friendly plan for trains etc. I’m also guessing we will see that promised big push on low and order, and some front-loaded work on the NHS.
If Labour is navel gazing for the next six months it might find it irretrievably loses control of the narrative like it did in 2010.
Can I ask a straight question? Do you genuinely think having a border down the Irish Sea where goods are checked in and out of Northern Ireland is a) a good idea and b) better than what exists now?
Because that's what Johnson has agreed to, although he denies it. The denial is telling in itself. This will be a hard treaty agreement with sanctions for breach.
The Irish border issue is pumped up out of all proportion. The Nats are now the majority and do you think they'll think twice about fucking off? I'm with the Nats.
The demographic shift in NI makes it clear that if it is to remain part of the UK it needs to be based on something other than sectarian loyalties. A province that is the link between the UK and EU, like a Celtic Hong Kong, has the potential to be prosperous, peaceful, and become acceptable in the long term to all parties. So I think Boris's deal is going to be brilliant for NI.
Horribly, this might be true. In my next round of job applications (counterintuitively the best way to retain your job is to apply for others) I will consider Belfast. There has to be some advantages in living in a place with transparent EU and UK borders, and legislative differentials is an opportunity not to be sneezed at.
Can I ask a straight question? Do you genuinely think having a border down the Irish Sea where goods are checked in and out of Northern Ireland is a) a good idea and b) better than what exists now?
Because that's what Johnson has agreed to, although he denies it. The denial is telling in itself. This will be a hard treaty agreement with sanctions for breach.
The Irish border issue is pumped up out of all proportion. The Nats are now the majority and do you think they'll think twice about fucking off? I'm with the Nats.
The demographic shift in NI makes it clear that if it is to remain part of the UK it needs to be based on something other than sectarian loyalties. A province that is the link between the UK and EU, like a Celtic Hong Kong, has the potential to be prosperous, peaceful, and become acceptable in the long term to all parties. So I think Boris's deal is going to be brilliant for NI.
You always take the most negative possible slant and the most pro EU position you can.
You desperately don't want to be proved wrong (and will no doubt argue that whatever happens proves you were right regardless) but I now expect a good deal we can all get behind.
Can I ask a straight question? Do you genuinely think having a border down the Irish Sea where goods are checked in and out of Northern Ireland is a) a good idea and b) better than what exists now?
Because that's what Johnson has agreed to, although he denies it. The denial is telling in itself. This will be a hard treaty agreement with sanctions for breach.
The Irish border issue is pumped up out of all proportion. The Nats are now the majority and do you think they'll think twice about fucking off? I'm with the Nats.
You didn't really answer my question. You don't have to. But let me answer it myself. I think it is massively problematic at several levels. Starting with consent. No-one in Northern Ireland has agreed to this arrangement. They weren't consulted. Johnson didn't see any reason why they should be consulted. It adds red tape cost to business and encourages smuggling. It's potentially a security risk. It doesn't address a problem that exists now.
I did. The issue is pumped up and, in the overall scheme of things only really matters to NI which is now in thrall to Nats who will, I think fuck off asap. How they do it is neither here nor there to the rest of the UK.
Fair point. I disagree, but you did answer the question. Apologies and for making you answer twice.
With this 80 seat majority Boris can bin FTPA and finally get on with boundary reform.
Boundary changes might not necessarily be a good idea for the Tories because they would probably give more seats to London and other cities since there's been an uptick in the percentage of the population living there.
They shouldn't care who it gives an advantage to, it's the right thing to do.
Ah, hello there. Welcome to Earth. Our customs seem to be a bit different regarding politicians...
I think Labour arriving at the conclusion that the policies were great, and just the leader awful, is pretty likely, I'm afraid.
It is an excellent article. I was struck by this: One thing it needs to do above all is to realise that it is not enough to call yourself moral. You have to act morally too... Applies well beyond just Labour, though.
I guess the Tory 2017 remain vote is up for grabs at the next GE. By then those will judge Johnson on a 5 year record rather than personality or his manifesto. If he delivers there are plenty of LD2019 votes to win back, if he doesnt there are plenty of votes to lose.
By 2024 you would imagine all but the ultra-remainers (mostly London) would have reconciled themselves to Brexit. Tory remainers who went elsewhere yesterday are likely to be back in the tent voting in line with pre-2016.
The real problem is for Labour...
1) Manifesto with a referendum or rejoin and they lose again in the Mids/NW/NE.
2) No commitment for R2/rejoin they lose votes to the LD's in ultra-remain London.
You always take the most negative possible slant and the most pro EU position you can.
You desperately don't want to be proved wrong (and will no doubt argue that whatever happens proves you were right regardless) but I now expect a good deal we can all get behind.
Can I ask a straight question? Do you genuinely think having a border down the Irish Sea where goods are checked in and out of Northern Ireland is a) a good idea and b) better than what exists now?
Because that's what Johnson has agreed to, although he denies it. The denial is telling in itself. This will be a hard treaty agreement with sanctions for breach.
The Irish border issue is pumped up out of all proportion. The Nats are now the majority and do you think they'll think twice about fucking off? I'm with the Nats.
You didn't really answer my question. You don't have to. But let me answer it myself. I think it is massively problematic at several levels. Starting with consent. No-one in Northern Ireland has agreed to this arrangement. They weren't consulted. Johnson didn't see any reason why they should be consulted. It adds red tape cost to business and encourages smuggling. It's potentially a security risk. It doesn't address a problem that exists now.
I did. The issue is pumped up and, in the overall scheme of things only really matters to NI which is now in thrall to Nats who will, I think fuck off asap. How they do it is neither here nor there to the rest of the UK.
Fair point. I disagree, but you did answer the question. Apologies and for making you answer twice.
Not to worry. My wife tells me I regularly repeat myself, repeat myself.
Did I catch just a hint of withdrawal from the general contempt with which Boris has been showered on here? Is he just maybe not so foolish after all despite being dishonest, immoral and a general retrobate?
Boris has won and won big. He has done so by being brave, willing to gamble and being ruthlessly disciplined about his message. It is a measure of his achievements that so many still seem to regard him as a bumbling fool. This is a wolf in sheep’s clothing. I think that we will see what Cameron could have done had he been arsed.
Never thought Johnson a fool. He has a very clear and ruthless understanding of where his interests lies.
My issue with him is that he is unprincipled, dishonest, feckless and a fraud and totally unfit to be in a position of trust.
Well, he can spend the next five, ten years disabusing you of that notion as he becomes a highly-regarded major international statesman.....
One line that I wish interviewers talking to Jo Swinson during the campaign had taken, but which was, AFAIK, mysteriously completely overlooked is how much she personally benefited from the Leave result and how little gratitude she showed.
Isn't that a bit like criticising Winston Churchill for not showing more gratitude to Hitler for reviving his political career?
That would also be a valid - and highly inconvenient - point. It's not criticism per se, just pointing out the reality of the situation.
History is absolutely strewn with events and their consequences that make the prevailing narrative look awkward if scrutinised too closely...
The parties should all take a breath. Johnson can do whatever he likes because he was elected with a large majority. Understanding why has to be the first task.
From a LibDem perspective we gained 1.3m votes and lost seats. The obvious task is to build local organisations to win council seats and then councils and MPs. In other words what Ashdown and Kennedy did before that Orange Book wazzock Clegg binned it all
The Orange Bookers had tons of fans here at PB at the time, as did the Lib-Con coalition. Pretty obvious in retrospect what was going on.
Did I catch just a hint of withdrawal from the general contempt with which Boris has been showered on here? Is he just maybe not so foolish after all despite being dishonest, immoral and a general retrobate?
Boris has won and won big. He has done so by being brave, willing to gamble and being ruthlessly disciplined about his message. It is a measure of his achievements that so many still seem to regard him as a bumbling fool. This is a wolf in sheep’s clothing. I think that we will see what Cameron could have done had he been arsed.
Never thought Johnson a fool. He has a very clear and ruthless understanding of where his interests lies.
My issue with him is that he is unprincipled, dishonest, feckless and a fraud and totally unfit to be in a position of trust.
Well, he can spend the next five, ten years disabusing you of that notion as he becomes a highly-regarded major international statesman.....
Interesting speculation about how much the unprincipled, feckless etc prevents someone being a highly regarded international statesman.
He didn't achieve any of that while Foreign Secretary. Far from it. He has to has to start somewhere, I suppose.
Edit I see Johnson as Berlusconi, but more so. Did Berlusconi turn out to be a highly-regarded major international statesman?
Now that I'm back in the UK I can finally order my thoughts on this. Personally I expected this result, I've been saying a majority of between 60 and 80 since the election was called and I'm happy to have been proven right. I concentrated my betting strategy on backing the Tories in that range for target seats and laying Labour lower down the list and in seats where they would be expected to gain from the sitting Tory.
I stayed away from the spreads (once bitten and all that) but now regret my earlier hesitance as I was hovering over the sell button for Labour seats.
Overall I think I should be up a fair amount, I'll need to check all of my accounts when I fire up my computer at the office on Monday morning.
On Boris as PM, well I just hope he really does sell out the ERG and become a socially liberal PM and forge close ties with the EU that gives us a good base to work from for trade.
One line that I wish interviewers talking to Jo Swinson during the campaign had taken, but which was, AFAIK, mysteriously completely overlooked is how much she personally benefited from the Leave result and how little gratitude she showed.
Isn't that a bit like criticising Winston Churchill for not showing more gratitude to Hitler for reviving his political career?
That would also be a valid - and highly inconvenient - point. It's not criticism per se, just pointing out the reality of the situation.
History is absolutely strewn with events and their consequences that make the prevailing narrative look awkward if scrutinised too closely...
It's very hard to deliver all-bad. I imagine after five years of Corbyn/McDonnell I'd have found one thing thing that they did well. Well, maybe. Ok, so apart from those two it's very hard to deliver all-bad.
The Tories polled better with skilled working class and lower middle class voters than upper middle class voters last night, though they won both. The Tories will thus be a less neoliberal and pro big business party and government than they were in the Cameron years and a more socially conservative, pro small business and big spending one.
Labour now has to decide if it wants to move back to the centre after its rout under Corbyn under a leader like Keir Starmer or Jess Phillips or stick with the left under a Burgon or Long Bailey and gift Boris and the Tories another decade in power. The LDs best strategy is likely to hope Labour stays left and stick to the liberal centre
The LDs best results have always been with the other parties close to the centre. If the others are extreme, especially Labour extreme, they get squeezed heavily.
If I were the LDs I'd be very worried about those Ashcroft numbers.
Huge numbers of their voters voted for them reluctantly and negatively.
That doesn't bode well.
That's the whole danger of pitching up on the wrong side of losing battle. The LDs are claiming small comfort from an improved share of the vote, but once we leave in some form much of that vote has little reason to hang around.
I guess the Tory 2017 remain vote is up for grabs at the next GE. By then those will judge Johnson on a 5 year record rather than personality or his manifesto. If he delivers there are plenty of LD2019 votes to win back, if he doesnt there are plenty of votes to lose.
The Tories won't suffer him for long if he's not on their game.
On his game for who? He may do very well for one group and badly for another. It will be very difficult if not impossible to do well for all his coalition, no idea what his prioritisation will be between the traditional and new tories.
The point is to find policies which work across the coalition - scrapping the Telly tax seems like an easy win when he needs it for example.
Can I ask a straight question? Do you genuinely think having a border down the Irish Sea where goods are checked in and out of Northern Ireland is a) a good idea and b) better than what exists now?
Because that's what Johnson has agreed to, although he denies it. The denial is telling in itself. This will be a hard treaty agreement with sanctions for breach.
The Irish border issue is pumped up out of all proportion. The Nats are now the majority and do you think they'll think twice about fucking off? I'm with the Nats.
The demographic shift in NI makes it clear that if it is to remain part of the UK it needs to be based on something other than sectarian loyalties. A province that is the link between the UK and EU, like a Celtic Hong Kong, has the potential to be prosperous, peaceful, and become acceptable in the long term to all parties. So I think Boris's deal is going to be brilliant for NI.
Horribly, this might be true. In my next round of job applications (counterintuitively the best way to retain your job is to apply for others) I will consider Belfast. There has to be some advantages in living in a place with transparent EU and UK borders, and legislative differentials is an opportunity not to be sneezed at.
Of course it's true. And as time goes by, the idea of leaving it behind to join the Republic, because of Cromwell and William III, will seem increasingly absurd.
I didn’t want to believe it. Some of the polls and analyses (and the corresponding Tory panic on here) gave me hope that it wouldn’t come to pass. But, I suspected all along that the combination of Boris’ superficial ‘lovable buffoon’ appeal and the public’s sheer fed-upness with interminable wrangling about Brexit would be the deciding factors pointing to a big Tory majority. I did bet accordingly, though not extravagantly so.
I didn’t anticipate the Labour leadership being such a push factor in the end. After all, they were just the same Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell whose Labour Party significantly increased its vote in 2017 from 2015. For me, and clearly many others of younger generations, they (particularly Corbyn) have many admirable qualities. But, there’s no denying that their unpopularity played a big role in this outcome.
Some of the policies were very good, but others were terrible. Free broadband was IMO the single biggest mis-step, I had a really hard time defending this one in conversations with voters. The WASPI pledge fatally undermined the costing claims. It felt desperate, and was actually doing more harm than good as credibility drained away.
The communication around the good policies was really poor. Labour can get 163 economists, Oxford professors etc, to sign a letter to the Financial Times in support of their plans, but cannot seem to communicate their thinking to voters, supporters or even their candidates. Tory attack lines such as referencing ‘there is no money left’ joke note from 2010 are still rolled out and yet go virtually unchallenged. It’s no wonder they don’t have credibility in what should be their strongest sphere.
I guess the Tory 2017 remain vote is up for grabs at the next GE. By then those will judge Johnson on a 5 year record rather than personality or his manifesto. If he delivers there are plenty of LD2019 votes to win back, if he doesnt there are plenty of votes to lose.
By 2024 you would imagine all but the ultra-remainers (mostly London) would have reconciled themselves to Brexit. Tory remainers who went elsewhere yesterday are likely to be back in the tent voting in line with pre-2016.
The real problem is for Labour...
1) Manifesto with a referendum or rejoin and they lose again in the Mids/NW/NE.
2) No commitment for R2/rejoin they lose votes to the LD's in ultra-remain London.
If you can see 2024 can I borrow your time machine? The issues 2024 will be fought on don’t even exist in ant clear format, yes climate change but we will be four years on, international relations but who will be friends or foes? Of course the government record but it won’t be how you define it
The Tories polled better with skilled working class and lower middle class voters than upper middle class voters last night, though they won both. The Tories will thus be a less neoliberal and pro big business party and government than they were in the Cameron years and a more socially conservative, pro small business and big spending one.
Labour now has to decide if it wants to move back to the centre after its rout under Corbyn under a leader like Keir Starmer or Jess Phillips or stick with the left under a Burgon or Long Bailey and gift Boris and the Tories another decade in power. The LDs best strategy is likely to hope Labour stays left and stick to the liberal centre
The LDs best results have always been with the other parties close to the centre. If the others are extreme, especially Labour extreme, they get squeezed heavily.
If I were the LDs I'd be very worried about those Ashcroft numbers.
Huge numbers of their voters voted for them reluctantly and negatively.
That doesn't bode well.
That's the whole danger of pitching up on the wrong side of losing battle. The LDs are claiming small comfort from an improved share of the vote, but once we leave in some form much of that vote has little reason to hang around.
I guess the Tory 2017 remain vote is up for grabs at the next GE. By then those will judge Johnson on a 5 year record rather than personality or his manifesto. If he delivers there are plenty of LD2019 votes to win back, if he doesnt there are plenty of votes to lose.
The Tories won't suffer him for long if he's not on their game.
On his game for who? He may do very well for one group and badly for another. It will be very difficult if not impossible to do well for all his coalition, no idea what his prioritisation will be between the traditional and new tories.
The point is to find policies which work across the coalition - scrapping the Telly tax seems like an easy win when he needs it for example.
Passing the tax burden onto the young workers? Or privatising the BBC?
The parties should all take a breath. Johnson can do whatever he likes because he was elected with a large majority. Understanding why has to be the first task.
From a LibDem perspective we gained 1.3m votes and lost seats. The obvious task is to build local organisations to win council seats and then councils and MPs. In other words what Ashdown and Kennedy did before that Orange Book wazzock Clegg binned it all
Exactly that is what WE are about hard work, grass roots representation, fair vote, thinking global and acting local, tackling environmental issues from dog shit to climate change and challenging the so called complacent bog parties in local government to smarten and clean their act up.
And above all stop going on and on and on about Remaining in (or Rejoining) the EU. Just accept what's happened and move on. If that is done, and Labour remains in the grip of the Marxists, the door is open to eventually pushing for a much broader political realignment. To do so the LDs need to appeal to the Ian Austins, John Manns, John Woodcocks and Frank Fields of this world, as well as those who voted Remain in the now irrelevant past.
Yepp. The Tories own Brexit now. The ball is 100% in your court. When you fuck up, you’ll be back here in five years telling us that it was someone else’s fault.
Labour Lib Dems The Irish The Scots The Germans The Americans The Chinese Etc Etc Etc
There’ll be some fall guy. It is never the Tories’ fault.
Now that I'm back in the UK I can finally order my thoughts on this. Personally I expected this result, I've been saying a majority of between 60 and 80 since the election was called and I'm happy to have been proven right. I concentrated my betting strategy on backing the Tories in that range for target seats and laying Labour lower down the list and in seats where they would be expected to gain from the sitting Tory.
I stayed away from the spreads (once bitten and all that) but now regret my earlier hesitance as I was hovering over the sell button for Labour seats.
Overall I think I should be up a fair amount, I'll need to check all of my accounts when I fire up my computer at the office on Monday morning.
On Boris as PM, well I just hope he really does sell out the ERG and become a socially liberal PM and forge close ties with the EU that gives us a good base to work from for trade.
Socially liberal? That is not who the new Tory MP's represent.
I didn’t want to believe it. Some of the polls and analyses (and the corresponding Tory panic on here) gave me hope that it wouldn’t come to pass. But, I suspected all along that the combination of Boris’ superficial ‘lovable buffoon’ appeal and the public’s sheer fed-upness with interminable wrangling about Brexit would be the deciding factors pointing to a big Tory majority. I did bet accordingly, though not extravagantly so.
I didn’t anticipate the Labour leadership being such a push factor in the end. After all, they were just the same Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell whose Labour Party significantly increased its vote in 2017 from 2015. For me, and clearly many others of younger generations, they (particularly Corbyn) have many admirable qualities. But, there’s no denying that their unpopularity played a big role in this outcome.
Some of the policies were very good, but others were terrible. Free broadband was IMO the single biggest mis-step, I had a really hard time defending this one in conversations with voters. The WASPI pledge fatally undermined the costing claims. It felt desperate, and was actually doing more harm than good as credibility drained away.
The communication around the good policies was really poor. Labour can get 163 economists, Oxford professors etc, to sign a letter to the Financial Times in support of their plans, but cannot seem to communicate their thinking to voters, supporters or even their candidates. Tory attack lines such as referencing ‘there is no money left’ joke note from 2010 are still rolled out and yet go virtually unchallenged. It’s no wonder they don’t have credibility in what should be their strongest sphere.
To be continued
Yes unless Labour change dramatically from the loony left brigade.... it WILL be continued...
I didn’t want to believe it. Some of the polls and analyses (and the corresponding Tory panic on here) gave me hope that it wouldn’t come to pass. But, I suspected all along that the combination of Boris’ superficial ‘lovable buffoon’ appeal and the public’s sheer fed-upness with interminable wrangling about Brexit would be the deciding factors pointing to a big Tory majority. I did bet accordingly, though not extravagantly so.
I didn’t anticipate the Labour leadership being such a push factor in the end. After all, they were just the same Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell whose Labour Party significantly increased its vote in 2017 from 2015. For me, and clearly many others of younger generations, they (particularly Corbyn) have many admirable qualities. But, there’s no denying that their unpopularity played a big role in this outcome.
Some of the policies were very good, but others were terrible. Free broadband was IMO the single biggest mis-step, I had a really hard time defending this one in conversations with voters. The WASPI pledge fatally undermined the costing claims. It felt desperate, and was actually doing more harm than good as credibility drained away.
The communication around the good policies was really poor. Labour can get 163 economists, Oxford professors etc, to sign a letter to the Financial Times in support of their plans, but cannot seem to communicate their thinking to voters, supporters or even their candidates. Tory attack lines such as referencing ‘there is no money left’ joke note from 2010 are still rolled out and yet go virtually unchallenged. It’s no wonder they don’t have credibility in what should be their strongest sphere.
You always take the most negative possible slant and the most pro EU position you can.
You desperately don't want to be proved wrong (and will no doubt argue that whatever happens proves you were right regardless) but I now expect a good deal we can all get behind.
Can I ask a straight question? Do you genuinely think having a border down the Irish Sea where goods are checked in and out of Northern Ireland is a) a good idea and b) better than what exists now?
Because that's what Johnson has agreed to, although he denies it. The denial is telling in itself. This will be a hard treaty agreement with sanctions for breach.
The Irish border issue is pumped up out of all proportion. The Nats are now the majority and do you think they'll think twice about fucking off? I'm with the Nats.
You didn't really answer my question. You don't have to. But let me answer it myself. I think it is massively problematic at several levels. Starting with consent. No-one in Northern Ireland has agreed to this arrangement. They weren't consulted. Johnson didn't see any reason why they should be consulted. It adds red tape cost to business and encourages smuggling. It's potentially a security risk. It doesn't address a problem that exists now.
Yepp. The Tories own Brexit now. The ball is 100% in your court. When you fuck up, you’ll be back here in five years telling us that it was someone else’s fault.
Labour Lib Dems The Irish The Scots The Germans The Americans The Chinese Etc Etc Etc
There’ll be some fall guy. It is never the Tories’ fault.
Yepp. The Tories own Brexit now. The ball is 100% in your court. When you fuck up, you’ll be back here in five years telling us that it was someone else’s fault.
Labour Lib Dems The Irish The Scots The Germans The Americans The Chinese Etc Etc Etc
There’ll be some fall guy. It is never the Tories’ fault.
The Tories polled better with skilled working class and lower middle class voters than upper middle class voters last night, though they won both. The Tories will thus be a less neoliberal and pro big business party and government than they were in the Cameron years and a more socially conservative, pro small business and big spending one.
Labour now has to decide if it wants to move back to the centre after its rout under Corbyn under a leader like Keir Starmer or Jess Phillips or stick with the left under a Burgon or Long Bailey and gift Boris and the Tories another decade in power. The LDs best strategy is likely to hope Labour stays left and stick to the liberal centre
The LDs best results have always been with the other parties close to the centre. If the others are extreme, especially Labour extreme, they get squeezed heavily.
If I were the LDs I'd be very worried about those Ashcroft numbers.
Huge numbers of their voters voted for them reluctantly and negatively.
That doesn't bode well.
That's the whole danger of pitching up on the wrong side of losing battle. The LDs are claiming small comfort from an improved share of the vote, but once we leave in some form much of that vote has little reason to hang around.
I guess the Tory 2017 remain vote is up for grabs at the next GE. By then those will judge Johnson on a 5 year record rather than personality or his manifesto. If he delivers there are plenty of LD2019 votes to win back, if he doesnt there are plenty of votes to lose.
The Tories won't suffer him for long if he's not on their game.
On his game for who? He may do very well for one group and badly for another. It will be very difficult if not impossible to do well for all his coalition, no idea what his prioritisation will be between the traditional and new tories.
The point is to find policies which work across the coalition - scrapping the Telly tax seems like an easy win when he needs it for example.
Passing the tax burden onto the young workers? Or privatising the BBC?
Decriminalise license fee non-payment with a notice period for the BBC to work out how it wants to fund itself. Popular with tory base and northern working class alike. Anathama for young liberals and metro media types who are not voting Tory anyway.
Yepp. The Tories own Brexit now. The ball is 100% in your court. When you fuck up, you’ll be back here in five years telling us that it was someone else’s fault.
Labour Lib Dems The Irish The Scots The Germans The Americans The Chinese Etc Etc Etc
There’ll be some fall guy. It is never the Tories’ fault.
Did I catch just a hint of withdrawal from the general contempt with which Boris has been showered on here? Is he just maybe not so foolish after all despite being dishonest, immoral and a general retrobate?
Boris has won and won big. He has done so by being brave, willing to gamble and being ruthlessly disciplined about his message. It is a measure of his achievements that so many still seem to regard him as a bumbling fool. This is a wolf in sheep’s clothing. I think that we will see what Cameron could have done had he been arsed.
I still think he's thick and a general "retrobate."
I'm just hoping his selfish and untrustworthy side will cause him to stab the Tory nutters in the back.
You think he’s just lucky? Twice Mayor of Labour London, took over leave when 15% behind in the polls and supported by the entire establishment, contrived to get rid of the most dangerous opponents at each round of the Tory leadership campaign, forced an election on his terms and won a smashing victory. Was there not some comment by that South African golfer Player that the more he practiced the luckier he got? He wants to be underestimated and you are swallowing it whole.
Not so much lucky as a shameless opportunist. He tells every audience what it wants to hear, and fixes himself to any cause likely to serve his ambitions.
You must have noticed how toxic he was in Scotland, but South of the border he is toxic to many as well, hence his poor approval ratings.
The political divide between Scotland and England is continuing to widen, but what should worry Scottish Tories is the large numbers of Brexit voters who think ending the Union is a price worth paying. Those English nationalists don't seem to be bothered by Irish unification either.
The Tories polled better with skilled working class and lower middle class voters than upper middle class voters last night, though they won both. The Tories will thus be a less neoliberal and pro big business party and government than they were in the Cameron years and a more socially conservative, pro small business and big spending one.
Labour now has to decide if it wants to move back to the centre after its rout under Corbyn under a leader like Keir Starmer or Jess Phillips or stick with the left under a Burgon or Long Bailey and gift Boris and the Tories another decade in power. The LDs best strategy is likely to hope Labour stays left and stick to the liberal centre
The LDs best results have always been with the other parties close to the centre. If the others are extreme, especially Labour extreme, they get squeezed heavily.
If I were the LDs I'd be very worried about those Ashcroft numbers.
Huge numbers of their voters voted for them reluctantly and negatively.
That doesn't bode well.
That's the whole danger of pitching up on the wrong side of losing battle. The LDs are claiming small comfort from an improved share of the vote, but once we leave in some form much of that vote has little reason to hang around.
I guess the Tory 2017 remain vote is up for grabs at the next GE. By then those will judge Johnson on a 5 year record rather than personality or his manifesto. If he delivers there are plenty of LD2019 votes to win back, if he doesnt there are plenty of votes to lose.
The Tories won't suffer him for long if he's not on their game.
On his game for who? He may do very well for one group and badly for another. It will be very difficult if not impossible to do well for all his coalition, no idea what his prioritisation will be between the traditional and new tories.
The point is to find policies which work across the coalition - scrapping the Telly tax seems like an easy win when he needs it for example.
Passing the tax burden onto the young workers? Or privatising the BBC?
Decriminalise license fee non-payment with a notice period for the BBC to work out how it wants to fund itself. Popular with tory base and northern working class alike. Anathama for young liberals and metro media types who are not voting Tory anyway.
Yepp. The Tories own Brexit now. The ball is 100% in your court. When you fuck up, you’ll be back here in five years telling us that it was someone else’s fault.
Labour Lib Dems The Irish The Scots The Germans The Americans The Chinese Etc Etc Etc
There’ll be some fall guy. It is never the Tories’ fault.
For Scots nationalists everything is still the fault of the English as if devolution never happened. If you do manage to leave the UK, you'll need to rejoin the EU just in order to have someone else to blame.
The parties should all take a breath. Johnson can do whatever he likes because he was elected with a large majority. Understanding why has to be the first task.
From a LibDem perspective we gained 1.3m votes and lost seats. The obvious task is to build local organisations to win council seats and then councils and MPs. In other words what Ashdown and Kennedy did before that Orange Book wazzock Clegg binned it all
Exactly that is what WE are about hard work, grass roots representation, fair vote, thinking global and acting local, tackling environmental issues from dog shit to climate change and challenging the so called complacent bog parties in local government to smarten and clean their act up.
And above all stop going on and on and on about Remaining in (or Rejoining) the EU. Just accept what's happened and move on. If that is done, and Labour remains in the grip of the Marxists, the door is open to eventually pushing for a much broader political realignment. To do so the LDs need to appeal to the Ian Austins, John Manns, John Woodcocks and Frank Fields of this world, as well as those who voted Remain in the now irrelevant past.
Agree close working relationship yes, the problem is Weber the collectivism of former labour politicians can be married with liberal individualism but that’s getting a bit deep for 9:30 on a Friday night. As I have said all day to people the outcome was the lesser of two evils, now let’s give him six months to see what he does with the majority. Even that approach is apparently left wing as obviously Johnson will be brilliant! When asked why well it gets brexit done.. what does that mean? Well it will be done ... let him have six months and we will see.
Yepp. The Tories own Brexit now. The ball is 100% in your court. When you fuck up, you’ll be back here in five years telling us that it was someone else’s fault.
Labour Lib Dems The Irish The Scots The Germans The Americans The Chinese Etc Etc Etc
There’ll be some fall guy. It is never the Tories’ fault.
And when it's a huge success, it will all be 'lucky' that our economy has thrived, that things ticked up, that this or that country happened to need a trade agreement, and none of the Tories political opponents will give them, or Boris, a shred of credit. Bit like he didn't get any when it was 100% certain that a new deal wouldn't and couldn't be negotiated, and then it was. I didn't see much (any) credit given there.
Yepp. The Tories own Brexit now. The ball is 100% in your court. When you fuck up, you’ll be back here in five years telling us that it was someone else’s fault.
Labour Lib Dems The Irish The Scots The Germans The Americans The Chinese Etc Etc Etc
There’ll be some fall guy. It is never the Tories’ fault.
And the SNP will own Scottish Independence, if (a fairly big if) the Scottish people vote for it.
If I were the LDs I'd be very worried about those Ashcroft numbers.
Huge numbers of their voters voted for them reluctantly and negatively.
That doesn't bode well.
That's the whole danger of pitching up on the wrong side of losing battle. The LDs are claiming small comfort from an improved share of the vote, but once we leave in some form much of that vote has little reason to hang around.
I guess the Tory 2017 remain vote is up for grabs at the next GE. By then those will judge Johnson on a 5 year record rather than personality or his manifesto. If he delivers there are plenty of LD2019 votes to win back, if he doesnt there are plenty of votes to lose.
The Tories won't suffer him for long if he's not on their game.
On his game for who? He may do very well for one group and badly for another. It will be very difficult if not impossible to do well for all his coalition, no idea what his prioritisation will be between the traditional and new tories.
The point is to find policies which work across the coalition - scrapping the Telly tax seems like an easy win when he needs it for example.
Passing the tax burden onto the young workers? Or privatising the BBC?
Decriminalise license fee non-payment with a notice period for the BBC to work out how it wants to fund itself. Popular with tory base and northern working class alike. Anathama for young liberals and metro media types who are not voting Tory anyway.
May as well privatise the BBC at the same time then and get some cash in to the coffers. Id imagine radically changing the BBC doesnt actually play well with the Tory base who are elderly, they just dont like having to pay for it. Youngsters wouldnt really care, many wouldnt notice.
Am thinking its unlikely to be next year but not sure enough to bet at those odds. Does Nicola need 50pc of vote at next Holyrood election in 2021 for case to be unanswerable?
If I were the LDs I'd be very worried about those Ashcroft numbers.
Huge numbers of their voters voted for them reluctantly and negatively.
That doesn't bode well.
That's the whole danger of pitching up on the wrong side of losing battle. The LDs are claiming small comfort from an improved share of the vote, but once we leave in some form much of that vote has little reason to hang around.
I guess the Tory 2017 remain vote is up for grabs at the next GE. By then those will judge Johnson on a 5 year record rather than personality or his manifesto. If he delivers there are plenty of LD2019 votes to win back, if he doesnt there are plenty of votes to lose.
The Tories won't suffer him for long if he's not on their game.
On his game for who? He may do very well for one group and badly for another. It will be very difficult if not impossible to do well for all his coalition, no idea what his prioritisation will be between the traditional and new tories.
The point is to find policies which work across the coalition - scrapping the Telly tax seems like an easy win when he needs it for example.
Passing the tax burden onto the young workers? Or privatising the BBC?
Decriminalise license fee non-payment with a notice period for the BBC to work out how it wants to fund itself. Popular with tory base and northern working class alike. Anathama for young liberals and metro media types who are not voting Tory anyway.
May as well privatise the BBC at the same time then and get some cash in to the coffers. Id imagine radically changing the BBC doesnt actually play well with the Tory base who are elderly, they just dont like having to pay for it. Youngsters wouldnt really care, many wouldnt notice.
I don't watch BBC or listen to their radio, nor do any of my friends.
Why the feck must I pay for something that does not need to be centrally provided and I don't want?
If I were the LDs I'd be very worried about those Ashcroft numbers.
Huge numbers of their voters voted for them reluctantly and negatively.
That doesn't bode well.
That's the whole danger of pitching up on the wrong side of losing battle. The LDs are claiming small comfort from an improved share of the vote, but once we leave in some form much of that vote has little reason to hang around.
I guess the Tory 2017 remain vote is up for grabs at the next GE. By then those will judge Johnson on a 5 year record rather than personality or his manifesto. If he delivers there are plenty of LD2019 votes to win back, if he doesnt there are plenty of votes to lose.
The Tories won't suffer him for long if he's not on their game.
On his game for who? He may do very well for one group and badly for another. It will be very difficult if not impossible to do well for all his coalition, no idea what his prioritisation will be between the traditional and new tories.
The point is to find policies which work across the coalition - scrapping the Telly tax seems like an easy win when he needs it for example.
Passing the tax burden onto the young workers? Or privatising the BBC?
Decriminalise license fee non-payment with a notice period for the BBC to work out how it wants to fund itself. Popular with tory base and northern working class alike. Anathama for young liberals and metro media types who are not voting Tory anyway.
May as well privatise the BBC at the same time then and get some cash in to the coffers. Id imagine radically changing the BBC doesnt actually play well with the Tory base who are elderly, they just dont like having to pay for it. Youngsters wouldnt really care, many wouldnt notice.
I don't watch BBC or listen to their radio, nor do any of my friends.
Why the feck must I pay for something that does not need to be centrally provided and I don't want?
If I were the LDs I'd be very worried about those Ashcroft numbers.
Huge numbers of their voters voted for them reluctantly and negatively.
That doesn't bode well.
That's the whole danger of pitching up on the wrong side of losing battle. The LDs are claiming small comfort from an improved share of the vote, but once we leave in some form much of that vote has little reason to hang around.
I guess the Tory 2017 remain vote is up for grabs at the next GE. By then those will judge Johnson on a 5 year record rather than personality or his manifesto. If he delivers there are plenty of LD2019 votes to win back, if he doesnt there are plenty of votes to lose.
The Tories won't suffer him for long if he's not on their game.
On his game for who? He may do very well for one group and badly for another. It will be very difficult if not impossible to do well for all his coalition, no idea what his prioritisation will be between the traditional and new tories.
The point is to find policies which work across the coalition - scrapping the Telly tax seems like an easy win when he needs it for example.
Passing the tax burden onto the young workers? Or privatising the BBC?
Decriminalise license fee non-payment with a notice period for the BBC to work out how it wants to fund itself. Popular with tory base and northern working class alike. Anathama for young liberals and metro media types who are not voting Tory anyway.
May as well privatise the BBC at the same time then and get some cash in to the coffers. Id imagine radically changing the BBC doesnt actually play well with the Tory base who are elderly, they just dont like having to pay for it. Youngsters wouldnt really care, many wouldnt notice.
I don't watch BBC or listen to their radio, nor do any of my friends.
Why the feck must I pay for something that does not need to be centrally provided and I don't want?
You dont have to.
Explain please as I thought I paid the license fee to fund them?
The fundamental issue is that that there is no acceptable solution that doesn't involve a very close relationship with the EU, which will be on the EU's terms. The EU is not minded to protect the UK from the consequences of its decision to leave if that decision damages the EU and so will be rigorous in enforcing its will. That in turn is unacceptable to those who voted Leave to be masters of their ship and to get an unloved institution out of their lives. They will never be less in control nor hear more about the EU.
That presupposes that the EU will carry on as it is, with the influence and heft that it currently possesses.
I'm hopeful that Brexit will mortally wound the institution and will inspire other nations to leave. Empires tend to crumble surprisingly quickly once the process gets going.
In 10-15 years there might not even be an EU as we know it with which to negotiate.
If I were the LDs I'd be very worried about those Ashcroft numbers.
Huge numbers of their voters voted for them reluctantly and negatively.
That doesn't bode well.
That's the whole danger of pitching up on the wrong side of losing battle. The LDs are claiming small comfort from an improved share of the vote, but once we leave in some form much of that vote has little reason to hang around.
I guess the Tory 2017 remain vote is up for grabs at the next GE. By then those will judge Johnson on a 5 year record rather than personality or his manifesto. If he delivers there are plenty of LD2019 votes to win back, if he doesnt there are plenty of votes to lose.
The Tories won't suffer him for long if he's not on their game.
On his game for who? He may do very well for one group and badly for another. It will be very difficult if not impossible to do well for all his coalition, no idea what his prioritisation will be between the traditional and new tories.
The point is to find policies which work across the coalition - scrapping the Telly tax seems like an easy win when he needs it for example.
Passing the tax burden onto the young workers? Or privatising the BBC?
Decriminalise license fee non-payment with a notice period for the BBC to work out how it wants to fund itself. Popular with tory base and northern working class alike. Anathama for young liberals and metro media types who are not voting Tory anyway.
May as well privatise the BBC at the same time then and get some cash in to the coffers. Id imagine radically changing the BBC doesnt actually play well with the Tory base who are elderly, they just dont like having to pay for it. Youngsters wouldnt really care, many wouldnt notice.
I don't watch BBC or listen to their radio, nor do any of my friends.
Why the feck must I pay for something that does not need to be centrally provided and I don't want?
Yepp. The Tories own Brexit now. The ball is 100% in your court. When you fuck up, you’ll be back here in five years telling us that it was someone else’s fault.
Labour Lib Dems The Irish The Scots The Germans The Americans The Chinese Etc Etc Etc
There’ll be some fall guy. It is never the Tories’ fault.
Mainly the Scots though.
The whole Brexit thing is a challenge. The huge debt (everyone's) is a challenge A weird never-never-land situation of the world economy is a challenge The complete dis-connect with Scotland is a challenge
However there is a degree to which Boris should be well positioned to do well. It's up to him as to whether he delivers.
I spend quite a lot of my time being slightly rude to Scottish people - one of my best friends. I may even poke the odd fun post in the SNP direction.
Clearly though whatever is chosen by the Scottish people is what should be done. We can get back to being rude to the French then. Now that's a proper thing to do that we can all agree on!
Yepp. The Tories own Brexit now. The ball is 100% in your court. When you fuck up, you’ll be back here in five years telling us that it was someone else’s fault.
Labour Lib Dems The Irish The Scots The Germans The Americans The Chinese Etc Etc Etc
There’ll be some fall guy. It is never the Tories’ fault.
And the SNP will own Scottish Independence, if (a fairly big if) the Scottish people vote for it.
That is how it works right?
Vote for it? Huh? I thought the plan was to block the vote?
It seems the LK postal vote "insight" was true after all....
It usually is. ScotRef14, GE15, EU16, (GE17?) and now GE19. It leaks, everybody pooh-poohs it, everybody explains how it can't happen, and then it turns out to be true.
If I were the LDs I'd be very worried about those Ashcroft numbers.
Huge numbers of their voters voted for them reluctantly and negatively.
That doesn't bode well.
I guess the Tory 2017 remain vote is up for grabs at the next GE. By then those will judge Johnson on a 5 year record rather than personality or his manifesto. If he delivers there are plenty of LD2019 votes to win back, if he doesnt there are plenty of votes to lose.
The Tories won't suffer him for long if he's not on their game.
On his game for who? He may do very well for one group and badly for another. It will be very difficult if not impossible to do well for all his coalition, no idea what his prioritisation will be between the traditional and new tories.
The point is to find policies which work across the coalition - scrapping the Telly tax seems like an easy win when he needs it for example.
Passing the tax burden onto the young workers? Or privatising the BBC?
Decriminalise license fee non-payment with a notice period for the BBC to work out how it wants to fund itself. Popular with tory base and northern working class alike. Anathama for young liberals and metro media types who are not voting Tory anyway.
May as well privatise the BBC at the same time then and get some cash in to the coffers. Id imagine radically changing the BBC doesnt actually play well with the Tory base who are elderly, they just dont like having to pay for it. Youngsters wouldnt really care, many wouldnt notice.
I don't watch BBC or listen to their radio, nor do any of my friends.
Why the feck must I pay for something that does not need to be centrally provided and I don't want?
You dont have to.
Expain please as I thought I paid the license fee to fund them?
The license fee is to watch live TV or I player. You dont need one for Netflix, Amazon Prime, Now TV etc if you are happy with those services. Plenty of people do that instead.
Tony Blair had the most remarkable 'honeymoon' lasting until the bung from Bernie for tobacco exemption for F1 sports got uncovered, but even after that Blair and the labour party just sailed in the high forties.
How long before the grind of governing and a 30% opinion poll beckons...
Also, I really think the polling industry absolutely smashed it this time around. ICM and Comres may need to rethink their approach, they missed a 12 point Con lead. I don't know how they fucked it up so badly.
It seems the LK postal vote "insight" was true after all....
Yes, I saw some specific data on this last night in one of the polls - IIRC the Tories won the postals by something like 50-35 - Labour won among those who decided in the final couple of weeks. The same poll showed huge tactical voting, mostly Lib-Lab and Lab-Lib, but that was mostly swamped by the overall tide.
If I were the LDs I'd be very worried about those Ashcroft numbers.
Huge numbers of their voters voted for them reluctantly and negatively.
That doesn't bode well.
That's the whole danger of pitching up on the wrong side of losing battle. The LDs are claiming small comfort from an improved share of the vote, but once we leave in some form much of that vote has little reason to hang around.
I guess the Tory 2017 remain vote is up for grabs at the next GE. By then those will judge Johnson on a 5 year record rather than personality or his manifesto. If he delivers there are plenty of LD2019 votes to win back, if he doesnt there are plenty of votes to lose.
The Tories won't suffer him for long if he's not on their game.
On his game for who? He may do very well for one group and badly for another. It will be very difficult if not impossible to do well for all his coalition, no idea what his prioritisation will be between the traditional and new tories.
The point is to find policies which work across the coalition - scrapping the Telly tax seems like an easy win when he needs it for example.
Passing the tax burden onto the young workers? Or privatising the BBC?
Decriminalise license fee non-payment with a notice period for the BBC to work out how it wants to fund itself. Popular with tory base and northern working class alike. Anathama for young liberals and metro media types who are not voting Tory anyway.
May as well privatise the BBC at the same time then and get some cash in to the coffers. Id imagine radically changing the BBC doesnt actually play well with the Tory base who are elderly, they just dont like having to pay for it. Youngsters wouldnt really care, many wouldnt notice.
I don't watch BBC or listen to their radio, nor do any of my friends.
Why the feck must I pay for something that does not need to be centrally provided and I don't want?
If it had been centrally provided y'day it would have been better than the crap we were lumped with by BBC Scotland.
If I were the LDs I'd be very worried about those Ashcroft numbers.
Huge numbers of their voters voted for them reluctantly and negatively.
That doesn't bode well.
I guess the Tory 2017 remain vote is up for grabs at the next GE. By then those will judge Johnson on a 5 year record rather than personality or his manifesto. If he delivers there are plenty of LD2019 votes to win back, if he doesnt there are plenty of votes to lose.
The Tories won't suffer him for long if he's not on their game.
On his game for who? He may do very well for one group and badly for another. It will be very difficult if not impossible to do well for all his coalition, no idea what his prioritisation will be between the traditional and new tories.
The point is to find policies which work across the coalition - scrapping the Telly tax seems like an easy win when he needs it for example.
Passing the tax burden onto the young workers? Or privatising the BBC?
Dro media types who are not voting Tory anyway.
Mlderly, they just dont like having to pay for it. Youngsters wouldnt really care, many wouldnt notice.
I don't watch BBC or listen to their radio, nor do any of my friends.
Why the feck must I pay for something that does not need to be centrally provided and I don't want?
You dont have to.
Expain please as I thought I paid the license fee to fund them?
The license fee is to watch live TV or I player. You dont need one for Netflix, Amazon Prime, Now TV etc if you are happy with those services. Plenty of people do that instead.
And some people dont use any form of TV at all.
you do need if you record from live tv though. The change is a bit messy. When the government included Iplayer it really should have also included any movie/tv show streaming device. Match up the subscription data for netflix/prime/iplayer/itvplayer/ch4/sky/nowtv and requite tv license for any premises where it takes place.
Also, I really think the polling industry absolutely smashed it this time around. ICM and Comres may need to rethink their approach, they missed a 12 point Con lead. I don't know how they fucked it up so badly.
I agree with the first part, its remarkable how well they have done in a changing environment. Based on it being remarkable to be so accurate I think a realistic assessment of ICM and Comres is they did fine too, if everyone herded to the same methods and outcomes the industry as a whole would be less resilient.
Yepp. The Tories own Brexit now. The ball is 100% in your court. When you fuck up, you’ll be back here in five years telling us that it was someone else’s fault.
Labour Lib Dems The Irish The Scots The Germans The Americans The Chinese Etc Etc Etc
There’ll be some fall guy. It is never the Tories’ fault.
And the SNP will own Scottish Independence, if (a fairly big if) the Scottish people vote for it.
That is how it works right?
Vote for it? Huh? I thought the plan was to block the vote?
It seems the LK postal vote "insight" was true after all....
Yes, I saw some specific data on this last night in one of the polls - IIRC the Tories won the postals by something like 50-35 - Labour won among those who decided in the final couple of weeks. The same poll showed huge tactical voting, mostly Lib-Lab and Lab-Lib, but that was mostly swamped by the overall tide.
No, that's bullshit. We won postals and we won on the day. We didn't magic a 12 point national lead because of postal votes a couple of weeks early. You're going to need to do a lot of soul searching, not just looking for excuses.
Also, I really think the polling industry absolutely smashed it this time around. ICM and Comres may need to rethink their approach, they missed a 12 point Con lead. I don't know how they fucked it up so badly.
ICM and ComRes gave the biggest Con leads in 2017 and the smallest in 2019. I think they over-adjusted for what happened in 2017.
Agreed. Polling industry nailed this elections. Especially MORI and Survation but Delta and Kantar did well too.
The point about it not being enough to say you are moral is brutal, as that seems a major issue with Corbyn in particular. Hes not just convinced that he knows what is best, as most do, he appears convinced if he does something by definition it must be moral and right because he is moral and right .
The Tories won't suffer him for long if he's not on their game.
On his game for who? He may do very well for one group and badly for another. It will be very difficult if not impossible to do well for all his coalition, no idea what his prioritisation will be between the traditional and new tories.
The point is to find policies which work across the coalition - scrapping the Telly tax seems like an easy win when he needs it for example.
Passing the tax burden onto the young workers? Or privatising the BBC?
Dro media types who are not voting Tory anyway.
Mlderly, they just dont like having to pay for it. Youngsters wouldnt really care, many wouldnt notice.
I don't watch BBC or listen to their radio, nor do any of my friends.
Why the feck must I pay for something that does not need to be centrally provided and I don't want?
You dont have to.
Expain please as I thought I paid the license fee to fund them?
The license fee is to watch live TV or I player. You dont need one for Netflix, Amazon Prime, Now TV etc if you are happy with those services. Plenty of people do that instead.
And some people dont use any form of TV at all.
you do need if you record from live tv though. The change is a bit messy. When the government included Iplayer it really should have also included any movie/tv show streaming device. Match up the subscription data for netflix/prime/iplayer/itvplayer/ch4/sky/nowtv and requite tv license for any premises where it takes place.
Its weird but it means you really dont have to pay the tv licence if you dont ever watch bbc - that might have been the intent. Nearly all the rest of the popular programming is available somewhere on apps.
The fundamental issue is that that there is no acceptable solution that doesn't involve a very close relationship with the EU, which will be on the EU's terms. The EU is not minded to protect the UK from the consequences of its decision to leave if that decision damages the EU and so will be rigorous in enforcing its will. That in turn is unacceptable to those who voted Leave to be masters of their ship and to get an unloved institution out of their lives. They will never be less in control nor hear more about the EU.
That presupposes that the EU will carry on as it is, with the influence and heft that it currently possesses.
I'm hopeful that Brexit will mortally wound the institution and will inspire other nations to leave. Empires tend to crumble surprisingly quickly once the process gets going.
In 10-15 years there might not even be an EU as we know it with which to negotiate.
Entirely possible. You would then have the right to be very smug to have got out first. Difficult to place a probability. 10% probability of EU collapse within ten years ? Not negligible but not that high either, I suspect. I prefer to concentrate on the 90% probability case.
Also I don't want the EU to collapse because that would be highly damaging to us, even if we did get out first. But that's just me.
Did I catch just a hint of withdrawal from the general contempt with which Boris has been showered on here? Is he just maybe not so foolish after all despite being dishonest, immoral and a general retrobate?
Boris has won and won big. He has done so by being brave, willing to gamble and being ruthlessly disciplined about his message. It is a measure of his achievements that so many still seem to regard him as a bumbling fool. This is a wolf in sheep’s clothing. I think that we will see what Cameron could have done had he been arsed.
I still think he's thick and a general "retrobate."
I'm just hoping his selfish and untrustworthy side will cause him to stab the Tory nutters in the back.
You think he’s just lucky? Twice Mayor of Labour London, took over leave when 15% behind in the polls and supported by the entire establishment, contrived to get rid of the most dangerous opponents at each round of the Tory leadership campaign, forced an election on his terms and won a smashing victory. Was there not some comment by that South African golfer Player that the more he practiced the luckier he got? He wants to be underestimated and you are swallowing it whole.
I didn't say he was lucky. I said he was stupid and a retrobate.
Of course stupid people can be successful. We see it all the time.
Comments
Well you have to 😆 it’s all Swinson fault that is about the worst case of denial I’ve seen.
So: we can use that info to profit in 2024, yes?
One line that I wish interviewers talking to Jo Swinson during the campaign had taken, but which was, AFAIK, mysteriously completely overlooked is how much she personally benefited from the Leave result and how little gratitude she showed.
Look at the facts: She lost her seat in 2015. Without the Leave win, there would have been no 2017 election. She wouldn't even have been an MP, let alone party leader.
She owed her entire career progression over the last few years to Brexit.
Yet Jo failed to acknowledge and recognise this inconvenient truth, while pushing a hard Remain line because it better suited her image.
But you can't rely on getting lucky forever. Given that she'd already lost this seat to the Nats and the febrile Pro/Anti Brexit atmosphere that she herself stoked up, it wasn't hugely surprising that there would be another opportunity to drop the seat to them, and that being the case, there was always a chance it would happen.
I don't dislike Swinson, but she's terrible at politics and not even very good at reality.
(I'm only involved in one of these)
Not a bad nights work was it?
When those who voted for the BXP on Thursday were asked "which of the following do you think would make the best PM", 75% chose Johnson and 4% Corbyn.
If Labour is navel gazing for the next six months it might find it irretrievably loses control of the narrative like it did in 2010.
One thing it needs to do above all is to realise that it is not enough to call yourself moral. You have to act morally too...
Applies well beyond just Labour, though.
The real problem is for Labour...
1) Manifesto with a referendum or rejoin and they lose again in the Mids/NW/NE.
2) No commitment for R2/rejoin they lose votes to the LD's in ultra-remain London.
That would also be a valid - and highly inconvenient - point. It's not criticism per se, just pointing out the reality of the situation.
History is absolutely strewn with events and their consequences that make the prevailing narrative look awkward if scrutinised too closely...
Some of us understood back then.
He didn't achieve any of that while Foreign Secretary. Far from it. He has to has to start somewhere, I suppose.
Edit I see Johnson as Berlusconi, but more so. Did Berlusconi turn out to be a highly-regarded major international statesman?
If there had been a Stop Blair protest on May 2 1997, I'd have gone on it!
I stayed away from the spreads (once bitten and all that) but now regret my earlier hesitance as I was hovering over the sell button for Labour seats.
Overall I think I should be up a fair amount, I'll need to check all of my accounts when I fire up my computer at the office on Monday morning.
On Boris as PM, well I just hope he really does sell out the ERG and become a socially liberal PM and forge close ties with the EU that gives us a good base to work from for trade.
I didn’t anticipate the Labour leadership being such a push factor in the end. After all, they were just the same Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell whose Labour Party significantly increased its vote in 2017 from 2015. For me, and clearly many others of younger generations, they (particularly Corbyn) have many admirable qualities. But, there’s no denying that their unpopularity played a big role in this outcome.
Some of the policies were very good, but others were terrible. Free broadband was IMO the single biggest mis-step, I had a really hard time defending this one in conversations with voters. The WASPI pledge fatally undermined the costing claims. It felt desperate, and was actually doing more harm than good as credibility drained away.
The communication around the good policies was really poor. Labour can get 163 economists, Oxford professors etc, to sign a letter to the Financial Times in support of their plans, but cannot seem to communicate their thinking to voters, supporters or even their candidates. Tory attack lines such as referencing ‘there is no money left’ joke note from 2010 are still rolled out and yet go virtually unchallenged. It’s no wonder they don’t have credibility in what should be their strongest sphere.
To be continued
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/protest-downing-street-boris-johnson-general-election-a4313391.html
Labour
Lib Dems
The Irish
The Scots
The Germans
The Americans
The Chinese
Etc
Etc
Etc
There’ll be some fall guy.
It is never the Tories’ fault.
HY promised an NI referendum
SNP 1/8
Con 8/1
Lab 12/1
LD 33/1
Grn 200/1
(Shadsy)
2019 result GB
Con 45
Lab 33
2019 final ELBOW
Con 43
Lab 34
Compare with:
2017 result GB
Con 44
Lab 41
2017 final ELBOW
Con 43
Lab 37
2015 result GB
Con 38
Lab 31
2015 final ELBOW
Con 33
Lab 34(!)
You must have noticed how toxic he was in Scotland, but South of the border he is toxic to many as well, hence his poor approval ratings.
The political divide between Scotland and England is continuing to widen, but what should worry Scottish Tories is the large numbers of Brexit voters who think ending the Union is a price worth paying. Those English nationalists don't seem to be bothered by Irish unification either.
That is how it works right?
Scottish independence referendum before end 2020?
Yes 2/1
No 4/11
Am thinking its unlikely to be next year but not sure enough to bet at those odds. Does Nicola need 50pc of vote at next Holyrood election in 2021 for case to be unanswerable?
Why the feck must I pay for something that does not need to be centrally provided and I don't want?
That presupposes that the EU will carry on as it is, with the influence and heft that it currently possesses.
I'm hopeful that Brexit will mortally wound the institution and will inspire other nations to leave. Empires tend to crumble surprisingly quickly once the process gets going.
In 10-15 years there might not even be an EU as we know it with which to negotiate.
The whole Brexit thing is a challenge.
The huge debt (everyone's) is a challenge
A weird never-never-land situation of the world economy is a challenge
The complete dis-connect with Scotland is a challenge
However there is a degree to which Boris should be well positioned to do well. It's up to him as to whether he delivers.
I spend quite a lot of my time being slightly rude to Scottish people - one of my best friends. I may even poke the odd fun post in the SNP direction.
Clearly though whatever is chosen by the Scottish people is what should be done. We can get back to being rude to the French then. Now that's a proper thing to do that we can all agree on!
And some people dont use any form of TV at all.
How long before the grind of governing and a 30% opinion poll beckons...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j0RVA3BjUOc
Now, about the question you swerved.....
Agreed. Polling industry nailed this elections. Especially MORI and Survation but Delta and Kantar did well too.
Also I don't want the EU to collapse because that would be highly damaging to us, even if we did get out first. But that's just me.
Of course stupid people can be successful. We see it all the time.