The national polling numbers (Con and Lab) are similar to 1987. The constituency polls are generally bad for Labour. The anecdata is bad for Labour. I don't think this will be close, although it suits everyone to say that it is.
I am starting to have a little wobble on the Tory majority.
You should.
I 'think' they will win a narrow majority but I, too, am less-than-sure about this. My betting position is pretty neatly covered I think.
This is tight. Much much tighter than some on here are telling themselves.
After 2017 they are not taking anything for granted. I'm pretty happy it will be a decent (50+) majority.
Notwitstanding a child on a hospital floor, the final message of this campaign from the Tories will be the one that resonates - just make this shit-show of years of Westminster deadlock and game-playing end. Only anarchists want more of the same - and they don't vote. In the legions of undecided, it is what will deliver them at the ballot box.
To Boris.
And Boris's Love Actually bit of social media is perfect for the job. I suspect many of the final hold-outs of the Brexit Party will come round. The never-before-Tories of the Midlands and the North will go through with it (many not having admitted their intention to even their nearest and dearest, let alone a pollster). The "Corbyn is worse than Brexit" always-before-been-Tories will wobble from supporting Jo Swinson. Those seats it was unthinkable the Tories might lose will, come Friday, be just that again - unthinkable as Tory losses.
But many of those seats which Labour thought theirs for all time will either be gone or be turned into marginals.
Maybe. Maybe not. 62 hours to the exit poll......
Indeed, if you listened to TWAO yesterday with 8 undecided voters the majority, I think 6 out of 8 said if they had to vote now it would be Tory, either because they couldn't stand Corbyn, or just to Get Brexit Done.. That is the message that is resonating.
I can't believe the front page headline in the Times - Brits injured, and oh yes, by the way, some Jonny Foreigners have died.
Meanwhile the Mail and Express go with Bozo's dead cat. Pathetic.
The volcano is a big story and is something people wish to read about for a number of reasons. My wife is politically engaged but has no idea what happened on the election trail yesterday and nor will the vast majority of voters. A volcano eruption with British lives at risk is a pretty unusual and front page worthy story any time of year.
That's just not true at all. The volcano is big news but so is the NHS story which is front page on lots of papers this morning, including Britain's most widely read one. Loads of people are talking about it on social media too.
Relatedly, I'm not entirely sure why, if the tories are really doing so well, there's a weird disinformation bubble among them on here.
Really? The volcano is not a big story? The NHS story is newspaper worthy of course but with so many people fed up with the election the volcano carries a much broader audience.
It isn’t an NHS story. It’s a story about the character and nature of our prospective PM.
The volcano could be a metaphor for Johnson. Unpredictable, unstable, looks good to those seeking to be impressed but liable to do appalling damage at any moment if it gets enough power.
I think you'll find that's red stuff coming out the top, not blue.
I can't believe the front page headline in the Times - Brits injured, and oh yes, by the way, some Jonny Foreigners have died.
Meanwhile the Mail and Express go with Bozo's dead cat. Pathetic.
The volcano is a big story and is something people wish to read about for a number of reasons. My wife is politically engaged but has no idea what happened on the election trail yesterday and nor will the vast majority of voters. A volcano eruption with British lives at risk is a pretty unusual and front page worthy story any time of year.
That's just not true at all. The volcano is big news but so is the NHS story which is front page on lots of papers this morning, including Britain's most widely read one. Loads of people are talking about it on social media too.
Relatedly, I'm not entirely sure why, if the tories are really doing so well, there's a weird disinformation bubble among them on here.
Really? The volcano is not a big story? The NHS story is newspaper worthy of course but with so many people fed up with the election the volcano carries a much broader audience.
It isn’t an NHS story. It’s a story about the character and nature of our prospective PM.
The volcano could be a metaphor for Johnson. Unpredictable, unstable, looks good to those seeking to be impressed but liable to do appalling damage at any moment if it gets enough power.
I think you'll find that's red stuff coming out the top, not blue.
All the big moments in this election so far have not changed the polling much. So either it has and the polling hasn't picked it up, or people are not getting involved in the day to day. In my experience its the latter.
All the big moments happened before the election was called.
Except the terror attack but yes I don’t think Andrew Neil, anti semitism or boy on floor are having much effect on the Brexit election. The battleground lines were drawn in October
Keep telling yourself this if you like but I know no-one where I live who is talking about Brexit. Perhaps they are more in the Labour heartlands, but even there it's not the cut through you hoped.
As even Laura K mentioned yesterday, in Labour's red wall, two issues are making the cut through: Brexit AND the NHS.
The lack of perspective and balance amongst tories on here is truly frightening. It suggests to me they know they're not doing as well as they hoped.
I can imagine why no one would talk to you about Brexit.
Regardless it is such a toxic subject but people have very strong views even if they won’t always bring them up on the doorstep.
The problem for emergency departmentsis not so much the front door (though that indeed is getting busier) but the backdoor. They cannot get patients admitted to an inpatient bed until one is availible. Simultaneously around 20% of medical inpatients are waiting on arrangements for discharge to social care. The latter backs up the whole system.
As the population ages, and has more chronic illness, those pressures will worsen.
Agree entirely. Social care provision is a key bottleneck that impedes smooth flow through the whole system. There simply isn’t enough of it - despite the fact it looks after 3x as many people per day as the NHS does.
In our local system, winter pressures (ha, misnomer as it’s all year round now) focus is on two things - getting senior clinical decision makers to the front door to ensure speedy diagnosis and divert patients who don’t need/shouldn’t be in hospital; and ensuring smooth flow out of hospital into home/social care. This requires real partnership working - which the organisational barriers don’t;t always
By and large the flow works ok and can cope with statistically normal variation in demand. But the slightest hiccough (an outbreak of of a vomiting bug on a community hospital ward for example) and the whole system clogs up and can take days to recover.
Use of the private sector is fundamental - it already provides much of our social care capacity, and is capable of vital surge capacity or ring-fences planned capacity that helps to ensure routine operations can continue.
Those who would deny all private sector involvement in care simply don’t understand the cost-effective role it can play in keeping the whole system running.
The interface between healthcare and local authority funded social care is appallingly bad. And the continuing healthcare assessment process worse.
I can't believe the front page headline in the Times - Brits injured, and oh yes, by the way, some Jonny Foreigners have died.
Meanwhile the Mail and Express go with Bozo's dead cat. Pathetic.
The volcano is a big story and is something people wish to read about for a number of reasons. My wife is politically engaged but has no idea what happened on the election trail yesterday and nor will the vast majority of voters. A volcano eruption with British lives at risk is a pretty unusual and front page worthy story any time of year.
That's just not true at all. The volcano is big news but so is the NHS story which is front page on lots of papers this morning, including Britain's most widely read one. Loads of people are talking about it on social media too.
Relatedly, I'm not entirely sure why, if the tories are really doing so well, there's a weird disinformation bubble among them on here.
Really? The volcano is not a big story? The NHS story is newspaper worthy of course but with so many people fed up with the election the volcano carries a much broader audience.
It isn’t an NHS story. It’s a story about the character and nature of our prospective PM.
The volcano could be a metaphor for Johnson. Unpredictable, unstable, looks good to those seeking to be impressed but liable to do appalling damage at any moment if it gets enough power.
I think you'll find that's red stuff coming out the top, not blue.
A belch of superheated steam, other gases, and ash in this case.
I can't believe the front page headline in the Times - Brits injured, and oh yes, by the way, some Jonny Foreigners have died.
Meanwhile the Mail and Express go with Bozo's dead cat. Pathetic.
The volcano is a big story and is something people wish to read about for a number of reasons. My wife is politically engaged but has no idea what happened on the election trail yesterday and nor will the vast majority of voters. A volcano eruption with British lives at risk is a pretty unusual and front page worthy story any time of year.
That's just not true at all. The volcano is big news but so is the NHS story which is front page on lots of papers this morning, including Britain's most widely read one. Loads of people are talking about it on social media too.
Relatedly, I'm not entirely sure why, if the tories are really doing so well, there's a weird disinformation bubble among them on here.
Really? The volcano is not a big story? The NHS story is newspaper worthy of course but with so many people fed up with the election the volcano carries a much broader audience.
It isn’t an NHS story. It’s a story about the character and nature of our prospective PM.
The volcano could be a metaphor for Johnson. Unpredictable, unstable, looks good to those seeking to be impressed but liable to do appalling damage at any moment if it gets enough power.
I think you'll find that's red stuff coming out the top, not blue.
Whatever colour the smoke, there is certainly ample hot air being generated.
Mmm, a Doha based individual who appears to like trying to take down the Tories.
Boris made a small error in the live interview with the phone. But overall, its clearly a set up job involving the parents and Mirror to weaponise the NHS, just as the left try every election.
Where are we now, 48 hours or so to save the NHS?
Even if it was set up , Tories complaining about someone else using their standard tactics is a hoot.
Indeed, if you listened to TWAO yesterday with 8 undecided voters the majority, I think 6 out of 8 said if they had to vote now it would be Tory, either because they couldn't stand Corbyn, or just to Get Brexit Done.. That is the message that is resonating.
Get Brexit done is definitely the message the Tories wish to convey. 6 leaflets have now all said Get Brexit done and the only way to do that is vote Tory.
Mind you that could be because every other policy they've come up with doesn't resonate.
Indeed, if you listened to TWAO yesterday with 8 undecided voters the majority, I think 6 out of 8 said if they had to vote now it would be Tory, either because they couldn't stand Corbyn, or just to Get Brexit Done.. That is the message that is resonating.
Get Brexit done is definitely the message the Tories wish to convey. 6 leaflets have now all said Get Brexit done and the only way to do that is vote Tory.
Mind you that could be because every other policy they've come up with doesn't resonate.
I can't believe the front page headline in the Times - Brits injured, and oh yes, by the way, some Jonny Foreigners have died.
Meanwhile the Mail and Express go with Bozo's dead cat. Pathetic.
The volcano is a big story and is something people wish to read about for a number of reasons. My wife is politically engaged but has no idea what happened on the election trail yesterday and nor will the vast majority of voters. A volcano eruption with British lives at risk is a pretty unusual and front page worthy story any time of year.
That's just not true at all. The volcano is big news but so is the NHS story which is front page on lots of papers this morning, including Britain's most widely read one. Loads of people are talking about it on social media too.
Relatedly, I'm not entirely sure why, if the tories are really doing so well, there's a weird disinformation bubble among them on here.
Really? The volcano is not a big story? The NHS story is newspaper worthy of course but with so many people fed up with the election the volcano carries a much broader audience.
It isn’t an NHS story. It’s a story about the character and nature of our prospective PM.
The volcano could be a metaphor for Johnson. Unpredictable, unstable, looks good to those seeking to be impressed but liable to do appalling damage at any moment if it gets enough power.
I think you'll find that's red stuff coming out the top, not blue.
Whatever colour the smoke, there is certainly ample hot air being generated.
I can't believe the front page headline in the Times - Brits injured, and oh yes, by the way, some Jonny Foreigners have died.
Meanwhile the Mail and Express go with Bozo's dead cat. Pathetic.
The volcano is a big story and is something people wish to read about for a number of reasons. My wife is politically engaged but has no idea what happened on the election trail yesterday and nor will the vast majority of voters. A volcano eruption with British lives at risk is a pretty unusual and front page worthy story any time of year.
That's just not true at all. The volcano is big news but so is the NHS story which is front page on lots of papers this morning, including Britain's most widely read one. Loads of people are talking about it on social media too.
Relatedly, I'm not entirely sure why, if the tories are really doing so well, there's a weird disinformation bubble among them on here.
Really? The volcano is not a big story? The NHS story is newspaper worthy of course but with so many people fed up with the election the volcano carries a much broader audience.
It isn’t an NHS story. It’s a story about the character and nature of our prospective PM.
The volcano could be a metaphor for Johnson. Unpredictable, unstable, looks good to those seeking to be impressed but liable to do appalling damage at any moment if it gets enough power.
I think you'll find that's red stuff coming out the top, not blue.
Whatever colour the smoke, there is certainly ample hot air being generated.
Labour made a mistake in gambling that a massive spending spree would be believed as being possible. Was it two or three years ago, they were using the good ship Venezuela as the way to go? Mrs Abbott was very keen on the idea. Whatever the causes of its demise, it is now well and truly scuttled.
And £58 billion can be found down the back of the settee for the women who managed not to see years and years of advertising about the pension changes. But it's a moral case, they have to right a wrong - after all, men live longer than women and they've always retired earlier, haven't they?
Yes, Brexit showed Labour pledges are meaningless, but it's not just Brexit - it's the trust element.
I think yesterday was a low point in our political discourse.
Social media reduction of a complex issue that has already been weaponised in the most trite of ways.
All sides were to blame. No one can claim any advantage from yesterday. A pox on all of them.
The first party to depoliticise health and care, and commit to genuine long-term cross-party discussion and consensus within the protection of a legal framework on the way forward for these vital services, should be on to a massive vote winner.
The fantasy that the Health Secretary can control or is accountable for some poor kid sleeping on his coat on the floor having waited too long for assessment, is simply a fantasy and a distraction.
We should outsource the NHS and Social Care to an independent equivalent of the Boundary Commission or Electoral Commission. Parliament’s role should be to set the parameters of what is required, and to agree a 10 year funding formula on a rolling basis once every parliament. Let the professionals then get on with delivery free of political interference and risk.
Sadly we don‘t have the the political talent or courage to do this.
The fake "my mum who's a nurse" Facebook post that the Tories spread everywhere AND the "I got punched! / I got better" story - both prove that somewhere in the Tory machine the landslide isn't there and they are worried about a majority.
That's exactly it. What does it tell us? That they're worried. They know it's a real fight.
I still think when Dominic Cummings blogged that we're heading for a hung parliament it wasn't mind games. This is still on a knife-edge.
I do think the tories will just do it. But it's close. They know it.
It isn’t like. Adopt brace position.
It really shouldn't be close. And yet the NHS remains the only issue that has the potential to win back a few Lab > Con switchers...
Labour made a mistake in gambling that a massive spending spree would be believed as being possible. Was it two or three years ago, they were using the good ship Venezuela as the way to go? Mrs Abbott was very keen on the idea. Whatever the causes of its demise, it is now well and truly scuttled.
And £58 billion can be found down the back of the settee for the women who managed not to see years and years of advertising about the pension changes. But it's a moral case, they have to right a wrong - after all, men live longer than women and they've always retired earlier, haven't they?
Yes, Brexit showed Labour pledges are meaningless, but it's not just Brexit - it's the trust element.
The only consoling thing about the campaign is the hearty laughter that met Labour's prizes for all manifesto. A glimmer of hope that there is some premium for realism and responsibility in politics.
Sadly there is nothing in the Tories' likely successful patchwork of cynicism and lies that offers much hope.
If you were the person that was hit - what would your take have been?
That is one of those leading questions we learned about at Rumpole University. No-one was hit. The video shows the adviser walked into the cyclists arm.
Now, it is possible that because he was not looking where he was going, the adviser, before seeing the video himself, did genuinely believe he had been punched by thousands of marauding Corbynista cyclists but is it not more likely that CCHQ's noses were growing?
Whatever the rights and wrongs of yesterday (and in the post Trump world we all get to choose our own "facts") one thing is very clear. Boris picked up immediately that the visuals of this were not good. Hancock was deployed, the usual idiots were manipulated into creating an incident which seems to have been much exaggerated, there was an immediate social media response which may or may not have had much to do with the truth, the Tories were on top of this even if it wasn't great for them.
I can't help thinking that May 17 would have been like a deer in the headlights until after polling day. Its not for the squeamish, political campaigns rarely are, but there has been a ruthless efficiency to this campaign that every now and then looks just a little too brutal. I think that it will do the job. Tory majority 50+
I don't quite understand the comparisons on that ComRes poll published this morning on BritainElects, showing a 7% gap, as they seem to be producing several differently weighted polls. Or was that one of the two weekend polls ? The fieldwork says up to 8 December.
I can't believe the front page headline in the Times - Brits injured, and oh yes, by the way, some Jonny Foreigners have died.
Meanwhile the Mail and Express go with Bozo's dead cat. Pathetic.
The volcano is a big story and is something people wish to read about for a number of reasons. My wife is politically engaged but has no idea what happened on the election trail yesterday and nor will the vast majority of voters. A volcano eruption with British lives at risk is a pretty unusual and front page worthy story any time of year.
That's just not true at all. The volcano is big news but so is the NHS story which is front page on lots of papers this morning, including Britain's most widely read one. Loads of people are talking about it on social media too.
Relatedly, I'm not entirely sure why, if the tories are really doing so well, there's a weird disinformation bubble among them on here.
Really? The volcano is not a big story? The NHS story is newspaper worthy of course but with so many people fed up with the election the volcano carries a much broader audience.
It isn’t an NHS story. It’s a story about the character and nature of our prospective PM.
The volcano could be a metaphor for Johnson. Unpredictable, unstable, looks good to those seeking to be impressed but liable to do appalling damage at any moment if it gets enough power.
I think you'll find that's red stuff coming out the top, not blue.
Whatever colour the smoke, there is certainly ample hot air being generated.
An interesting and informative post. Not quite accurate to say that the problem is not money, when social care - which you rightly say needs to be integrated with the health system - is so grossly underfunded. The rationing of continuing health care for elderly patients on discharge from hospital into care homes, for example, makes the rationing your refer to above pale by comparison.
The problem for emergency departmentsis not so much the front door (though that indeed is getting busier) but the backdoor. They cannot get patients admitted to an inpatient bed until one is availible. Simultaneously around 20% of medical inpatients are waiting on arrangements for discharge to social care. The latter backs up the whole system.
As the population ages, and has more chronic illness, those pressures will worsen.
Agree entirely. Social care provision is a key bottleneck that impedes smooth flow through the whole system. There simply isn’t enough of it - despite the fact it looks after 3x as many people per day as the NHS does.
In our local system, winter pressures (ha, misnomer as it’s all year round now) focus is on two things - getting senior clinical decision makers to the front door to ensure speedy diagnosis and divert patients who don’t need/shouldn’t be in hospital; and ensuring smooth flow out of hospital into home/social care. This requires real partnership working - which the organisational barriers don’t;t always
By and large the flow works ok and can cope with statistically normal variation in demand. But the slightest hiccough (an outbreak of of a vomiting bug on a community hospital ward for example) and the whole system clogs up and can take days to recover.
Use of the private sector is fundamental - it already provides much of our social care capacity, and is capable of vital surge capacity or ring-fences planned capacity that helps to ensure routine operations can continue.
Those who would deny all private sector involvement in care simply don’t understand the cost-effective role it can play in keeping the whole system running.
We also need to increase capacity in the primary care setting - too many people in A&E don’t need to be there but don’t feel they have an alternative
I’d also look at whether there is a way to add a triage facility before you even get to A&E. I’ve been a fan of walk in clinics in a retail setting to catch minor stuff
All the big moments in this election so far have not changed the polling much. So either it has and the polling hasn't picked it up, or people are not getting involved in the day to day. In my experience its the latter.
All the big moments happened before the election was called.
Except the terror attack but yes I don’t think Andrew Neil, anti semitism or boy on floor are having much effect on the Brexit election. The battleground lines were drawn in October
Keep telling yourself this if you like but I know no-one where I live who is talking about Brexit. Perhaps they are more in the Labour heartlands, but even there it's not the cut through you hoped.
As even Laura K mentioned yesterday, in Labour's red wall, two issues are making the cut through: Brexit AND the NHS.
The lack of perspective and balance amongst tories on here is truly frightening. It suggests to me they know they're not doing as well as they hoped.
From my perspective within Labour's red wall, a third issue is pretty important: Corbyn's Labour goes down with many traditional voters like a cold bag of sick. At its simplest it is an aversion to him, but disbelief over the credibility over the policy offer and those surrounding him is also evident.
Long post, sorry. I’m just about to enter my 25th year in the NHS (as a manager) - and I’ve worked in a range of settings in primary, acute and specialist care in Scotland, Wales and England. I’ve workeerence between the two is primarily a question of leadership, not resource. In those 25 years, every year I’ve been told the NHS is on its knees and morale has never been lower. The problem is not one of money (although more is often helpful). The problems are two-fold:
An interesting and informative post. Not quite accurate to say that the problem is not money, when social care - which you rightly say needs to be integrated with the health system - is so grossly underfunded. The rationing of continuing health care for elderly patients on discharge from hospital into care homes, for example, makes the rationing your refer to above pale by comparison.
The problem for emergency departmentsis not so much the front door (though that indeed is getting busier) but the backdoor. They cannot get patients admitted to an inpatient bed until one is availible. Simultaneously around 20% of medical inpatients are waiting on arrangements for discharge to social care. The latter backs up the whole system.
As the population ages, and has more chronic illness, those pressures will worsen.
Agree entirely. Social care provision is a key bottleneck that impedes smooth flow through the whole system. There simply isn’t enough of it - despite the fact it looks after 3x as many people per day as the NHS does.
In our local system, winter pressures (ha, misnomer as it’s all year round now) focus is on two things - getting senior clinical decision makers to the front door to ensure speedy diagnosis and divert patients who don’t need/shouldn’t be in hospital; and ensuring smooth flow out of hospital into home/social care. This requires real partnership working - which the organisational barriers don’t;t always
By and large the flow works ok and can cope with statistically normal variation in demand. But the slightest hiccough (an outbreak of of a vomiting bug on a community hospital ward for example) and the whole system clogs up and can take days to recover.
Use of the private sector is fundamental - it already provides much of our social care capacity, and is capable of vital surge capacity or ring-fences planned capacity that helps to ensure routine operations can continue.
Those who would deny all private sector involvement in care simply don’t understand the cost-effective role it can play in keeping the whole system running.
Not sure if you are now sleeping the sleep of the just but thank you for your posts.
In the real world of medicine there is another conflict or double conflict - the relationship between Hospital medicine and General Practice and Pharmacy. We can't know whether this child was best treated at A&E or should he have been catered for by his local GP where the equipment might have been more appropriate. As I say, I don't know and nor I guess does anyone on here. But, it does seem with the end of out of hours service in effect that inevitably directs people to A&E ( quite rightly - my child is sick and I'm not a doctor or a nurse ).
Betfair question: I`ve accidentally cashed out two bets on Betfair APP. Not too much damage - but annoying. You only have to touch Cash Out once and it does it - so it`s easy to do it by accident.
Does anyone know if the cash out button can be disabled? All I want to do is to view my bets. I hardly ever cash out - and if I did want to I`d go to my computer not the app.
I don't quite understand the comparisons on that new ComRes showing a 7% gap, as they seem to be producing several differently weighted polls.
All looks tight, though.
Well - apart from most other polls obviously.
Otter polls? Is the Tarka vote a thing now?
Edit: Rats, you’ve corrected the mistake!
Bloody otters. You got to watch them. I’m reliably informed by a bloke on Twitter that this is where Labour’s final squeeze will come from. Wildlife. Clever. Clever.
Polls completely ignoring the woodland / meadowland and river dwelling fauna. Question is: will they turn out? Does anyone have any data for this?
If you believe polling, Labour Leave voters have always put Brexit down their priority list.
It’s easy to find people in Labour Leave seats who hate Labour, in many 30%+ of the vote is Tory anyway.
The significant thing is how many 2017 Labour Leave voters come back to Labour (as they are slowly doing) and how unified Labour’s Remain vote is in those seats. We must not forget that in all seats the majority of Labour voters voted to Remain.
I think yesterday was a low point in our political discourse.
Social media reduction of a complex issue that has already been weaponised in the most trite of ways.
All sides were to blame. No one can claim any advantage from yesterday. A pox on all of them.
The first party to depoliticise health and care, and commit to genuine long-term cross-party discussion and consensus within the protection of a legal framework on the way forward for these vital services, should be on to a massive vote winner.
The fantasy that the Health Secretary can control or is accountable for some poor kid sleeping on his coat on the floor having waited too long for assessment, is simply a fantasy and a distraction.
We should outsource the NHS and Social Care to an independent equivalent of the Boundary Commission or Electoral Commission. Parliament’s role should be to set the parameters of what is required, and to agree a 10 year funding formula on a rolling basis once every parliament. Let the professionals then get on with delivery free of political interference and risk.
Sadly we don‘t have the the political talent or courage to do this.
I was thinking similar listening to R4s coverage this morning - it shed no light on the issues (which your excellent post proved can be provided for the lay person in a fairly short space of time). Instead, it seemed intent on blaming the various parties for provision in England/Wales/Scotland, getting one over on those being interviewed.
The problem for emergency departmentsis not so much the front door (though that indeed is getting busier) but the backdoor. They cannot get patients admitted to an inpatient bed until one is availible. Simultaneously around 20% of medical inpatients are waiting on arrangements for discharge to social care. The latter backs up the whole system.
As the population ages, and has more chronic illness, those pressures will worsen.
Agree entirely. Social care provision is a key bottleneck that impedes smooth flow through the whole system. There simply isn’t enough of it - despite the fact it looks after 3x as many people per day as the NHS does.
In our local system, winter pressures (ha, misnomer as it’s all year round now) focus is on two things - getting senior clinical decision makers to the front door to ensure speedy diagnosis and divert patients who don’t need/shouldn’t be in hospital; and ensuring smooth flow out of hospital into home/social care. This requires real partnership working - which the organisational barriers don’t;t always
By and large the flow works ok and can cope with statistically normal variation in demand. But the slightest hiccough (an outbreak of of a vomiting bug on a community hospital ward for example) and the whole system clogs up and can take days to recover.
Use of the private sector is fundamental - it already provides much of our social care capacity, and is capable of vital surge capacity or ring-fences planned capacity that helps to ensure routine operations can continue.
Those who would deny all private sector involvement in care simply don’t understand the cost-effective role it can play in keeping the whole system running.
We also need to increase capacity in the primary care setting - too many people in A&E don’t need to be there but don’t feel they have an alternative
I’d also look at whether there is a way to add a triage facility before you even get to A&E. I’ve been a fan of walk in clinics in a retail setting to catch minor stuff
With a wife who is a GP regularly doing 12+ hour days when on call, I couldn’t agree more. She is the most committed of clinicians and can’t face the prospect of another 20 years on the frontline. It’s grim and I wonder how we will continue to recruit GPs.
In my experience walk-in centres are like extra motorway lanes and facilitate new demand rather than ease existing congestion.
We need to accept that people make the wrong decisions and scale A&E accordingly, by co-locating primary care, mental health services and walk-in centres there not elsewhere. And then rigorously triage patients appropriately.
To be fair we do have two pollsters showing a 7 point gap. Ofc in the case of Comres we won’t know which methodology is better until polling day.
I reckon it’s very tight - and if you look at Comres Labour’s vote is almost at 80%. This is where the final squeeze will come from.
Even on a 7% lead only it's still a small but decent tory majority. They need to get that down to 4% to have a reasonable shot at a hung parliament, which would require all pollsters to be wrong this time around, unlike 2017.
Unless the last few polls show a swing to labour and MRP shows less than 340 tory seats a hung parliament seems extremely unlikely at this point. I don't think it'll be tight.
We have had my wife's 92 year old mother, who has Alzheimer's, living with uis for the last year. As her condition has deteriorated and we (more accuraely, my wife) has needed more help, it has become clear that there is little to no provision for it from the NHS or local authorities. Fortunately, we can pay for private help - but it is expensive (£50 an hour, £250 per 24 hours if we are away) - and even then it is irregular as sometimes there just aren't the people able to come. We are getting to the point where soon we are not going to be able to manage it and MiL will have to go into a home, but these are all heavily over-subscribed. In short, it is an absolute mess. There can be no doubt that large numbers of extemely frail and very ill old people are being left to fend for themselves or dependent on families who, with the best will in the world, do not have the finances or the skills necessary to look after them properly. My guess is that all of this is a massive strain on the mental health of large numbers of good citizens up and down this country. It is not sustainable - but it is hugely expensive to deal with and Brexit is going to make it worse.
I don't quite understand the comparisons on that new ComRes showing a 7% gap, as they seem to be producing several differently weighted polls.
All looks tight, though.
Well - apart from most other polls obviously.
Otter polls? Is the Tarka vote a thing now?
Edit: Rats, you’ve corrected the mistake!
Bloody otters. You got to watch them. I’m reliably informed by a bloke on Twitter that this is where Labour’s final squeeze will come from. Wildlife. Clever. Clever.
Polls completely ignoring the woodland / meadowland and river dwelling fauna. Question is: will they turn out? Does anyone have any data for this?
To be fair we do have two pollsters showing a 7 point gap. Ofc in the case of Comres we won’t know which methodology is better until polling day.
I reckon it’s very tight - and if you look at Comres Labour’s vote is almost at 80%. This is where the final squeeze will come from.
Even on a 7% lead only it's still a small but decent tory majority. They need to get that down to 4% to have a reasonable shot at a hung parliament, which would require all pollsters to be wrong this time around, unlike 2017.
Unless the last few polls show a swing to labour and MRP shows less than 340 tory seats a hung parliament seems extremely unlikely at this point. I don't think it'll be tight.
7% lead within the MOE could easily result in a HP.
With so many voters undecided, there is a lot of vote for Labour to still pick up.
An interesting and informative post. Not quite accurate to say that the problem is not money, when social care - which you rightly say needs to be integrated with the health system - is so grossly underfunded. The rationing of continuing health care for elderly patients on discharge from hospital into care homes, for example, makes the rationing your refer to above pale by comparison.
The problem for emergency departmentsis not so much the front door (though that indeed is getting busier) but the backdoor. They cannot get patients admitted to an inpatient bed until one is availible. Simultaneously around 20% of medical inpatients are waiting on arrangements for discharge to social care. The latter backs up the whole system.
As the population ages, and has more chronic illness, those pressures will worsen.
Agree entirely. Social care provision is a key bottleneck that impedes smooth flow through the whole system. There simply isn’t enough of it - despite the fact it looks after 3x as many people per day as the NHS does.
In our local system, winter pressures (ha, misnomer as it’s all year round now) focus is on two things - getting senior clinical decision makers to the front door to ensure speedy diagnosis and divert patients who don’t need/shouldn’t be in hospital; and ensuring smooth flow out of hospital into home/social care. This requires real partnership working - which the organisational barriers don’t;t always
By and large the flow works ok and can cope with statistically normal variation in demand. But the slightest hiccough (an outbreak of of a vomiting bug on a community hospital ward for example) and the whole system clogs up and can take days to recover.
Use of the private sector is fundamental - it already provides much of our social care capacity, and is capable of vital surge capacity or ring-fences planned capacity that helps to ensure routine operations can continue.
Those who would deny all private sector involvement in care simply don’t understand the cost-effective role it can play in keeping the whole system running.
Not sure if you are now sleeping the sleep of the just but thank you for your posts.
Nope...bit of a late night then early morning. Just limbering up for Thursday night!
Boris did not respond quickly enough over the photograph and Laura Kunnesberg ill judged tweets about a punch just added to the controversy
On 5 live this morning their report was more balanced and played the part where Boris did express concern on the photograph. They also re-iterated that the parents have complained to ipsos about political interference
It was a moment in the campaign just like AN but in the wider picture I do not see it changing votes
A podcast from Crewe yesterday summed up the election. Those taking part chose an angry emoji and one with a tear
One voter then seemed to speak for the others when he said it was a choice between
'A lying buffoon or a marxist and the lying buffoon wins it'
To be fair we do have two pollsters showing a 7 point gap. Ofc in the case of Comres we won’t know which methodology is better until polling day.
I reckon it’s very tight - and if you look at Comres Labour’s vote is almost at 80%. This is where the final squeeze will come from.
Even on a 7% lead only it's still a small but decent tory majority. They need to get that down to 4% to have a reasonable shot at a hung parliament, which would require all pollsters to be wrong this time around, unlike 2017.
Unless the last few polls show a swing to labour and MRP shows less than 340 tory seats a hung parliament seems extremely unlikely at this point. I don't think it'll be tight.
7% lead within the MOE could easily result in a HP.
With so many voters undecided, there is a lot of vote for Labour to still pick up.
HP, I am sticking with it.
Yes.
We know. You’ve told us this. Many times. Many many times. Many many many times. Many times.
To be fair we do have two pollsters showing a 7 point gap. Ofc in the case of Comres we won’t know which methodology is better until polling day.
I reckon it’s very tight - and if you look at Comres Labour’s vote is almost at 80%. This is where the final squeeze will come from.
Even on a 7% lead only it's still a small but decent tory majority. They need to get that down to 4% to have a reasonable shot at a hung parliament, which would require all pollsters to be wrong this time around, unlike 2017.
Unless the last few polls show a swing to labour and MRP shows less than 340 tory seats a hung parliament seems extremely unlikely at this point. I don't think it'll be tight.
7% lead within the MOE could easily result in a HP.
With so many voters undecided, there is a lot of vote for Labour to still pick up.
HP, I am sticking with it.
Yes.
We know. You’ve told us this. Many times. Many many times. Many many many times. Many times.
(Apologies to Round the Horne fans).
It’s worth repeating, just like your side keeps repeating lies about the hospital incident.
We have had my wife's 92 year old mother, who has Alzheimer's, living with uis for the last year. As her condition has deteriorated and we (more accuraely, my wife) has needed more help, it has become clear that there is little to no provision for it from the NHS or local authorities. Fortunately, we can pay for private help - but it is expensive (£50 an hour, £250 per 24 hours if we are away) - and even then it is irregular as sometimes there just aren't the people able to come. We are getting to the point where soon we are not going to be able to manage it and MiL will have to go into a home, but these are all heavily over-subscribed. In short, it is an absolute mess. There can be no doubt that large numbers of extemely frail and very ill old people are being left to fend for themselves or dependent on families who, with the best will in the world, do not have the finances or the skills necessary to look after them properly. My guess is that all of this is a massive strain on the mental health of large numbers of good citizens up and down this country. It is not sustainable - but it is hugely expensive to deal with and Brexit is going to make it worse.
I helped my mother look after her father for most of my teens and early twenties. There was little help or support from the NHS as a result.
We have had my wife's 92 year old mother, who has Alzheimer's, living with uis for the last year. As her condition has deteriorated and we (more accuraely, my wife) has needed more help, it has become clear that there is little to no provision for it from the NHS or local authorities. Fortunately, we can pay for private help - but it is expensive (£50 an hour, £250 per 24 hours if we are away) - and even then it is irregular as sometimes there just aren't the people able to come. We are getting to the point where soon we are not going to be able to manage it and MiL will have to go into a home, but these are all heavily over-subscribed. In short, it is an absolute mess. There can be no doubt that large numbers of extemely frail and very ill old people are being left to fend for themselves or dependent on families who, with the best will in the world, do not have the finances or the skills necessary to look after them properly. My guess is that all of this is a massive strain on the mental health of large numbers of good citizens up and down this country. It is not sustainable - but it is hugely expensive to deal with and Brexit is going to make it worse.
I’m sorry to hear that SO. It’s becoming all too familiar. My 80yr old father was diagnosed with dementia last year. I suspect the journey over the next few years us will be similar to yours, sadly.
Boris did not respond quickly enough over the photograph and Laura Kunnesberg ill judged tweets about a punch just added to the controversy
On 5 live this morning their report was more balanced and played the part where Boris did express concern on the photograph. They also re-iterated that the parents have complained to ipsos about political interference
It was a moment in the campaign just like AN but in the wider picture I do not see it changing votes
A podcast from Crewe yesterday summed up the election. Those taking part chose an angry emoji and one with a tear
One voter then seemed to speak for the others when he said it was a choice between
'A lying buffoon or a marxist and the lying buffoon wins it'
And there is why Boris should win a majority
Yep - that's how I see it - I am choosing the least worst option
Certain Labour rampers seem to want to overlook all the Labour lies, including those told by Jezbollah himself.
I don't quite understand the comparisons on that new ComRes showing a 7% gap, as they seem to be producing several differently weighted polls.
All looks tight, though.
Well - apart from most other polls obviously.
Otter polls? Is the Tarka vote a thing now?
Edit: Rats, you’ve corrected the mistake!
Bloody otters. You got to watch them. I’m reliably informed by a bloke on Twitter that this is where Labour’s final squeeze will come from. Wildlife. Clever. Clever.
Polls completely ignoring the woodland / meadowland and river dwelling fauna. Question is: will they turn out? Does anyone have any data for this?
I don't quite understand the comparisons on that new ComRes showing a 7% gap, as they seem to be producing several differently weighted polls.
All looks tight, though.
Well - apart from most other polls obviously.
Otter polls? Is the Tarka vote a thing now?
Edit: Rats, you’ve corrected the mistake!
Bloody otters. You got to watch them. I’m reliably informed by a bloke on Twitter that this is where Labour’s final squeeze will come from. Wildlife. Clever. Clever.
Polls completely ignoring the woodland / meadowland and river dwelling fauna. Question is: will they turn out? Does anyone have any data for this?
I don't quite understand the comparisons on that new ComRes showing a 7% gap, as they seem to be producing several differently weighted polls.
All looks tight, though.
Well - apart from most other polls obviously.
Otter polls? Is the Tarka vote a thing now?
Edit: Rats, you’ve corrected the mistake!
Bloody otters. You got to watch them. I’m reliably informed by a bloke on Twitter that this is where Labour’s final squeeze will come from. Wildlife. Clever. Clever.
Polls completely ignoring the woodland / meadowland and river dwelling fauna. Question is: will they turn out? Does anyone have any data for this?
You’ll never get an impartial account of events from this place, re canvassing etc. If it’s 80% Tory you’re going to get 80% pro Tory stuff, that’s the reality.
There’s nothing wrong with that of course but it is worth bearing in mind when hearing views that it’s going terribly for Labour. Of course they want it go terribly for Labour - so it’s classic confirmation bias.
You’ll never get an impartial account of events from this place, re canvassing etc. If it’s 80% Tory you’re going to get 80% pro Tory stuff, that’s the reality.
There’s nothing wrong with that of course but it is worth bearing in mind when hearing views that it’s going terribly for Labour. Of course they want it go terribly for Labour - so it’s classic confirmation bias.
Can I just ask, with respect, will you guarantee you will be posting on this site beyond friday and that you will not disappear after the results
You’ll never get an impartial account of events from this place, re canvassing etc. If it’s 80% Tory you’re going to get 80% pro Tory stuff, that’s the reality.
There’s nothing wrong with that of course but it is worth bearing in mind when hearing views that it’s going terribly for Labour. Of course they want it go terribly for Labour - so it’s classic confirmation bias.
You mistake a lot of people as Tories simply because they're not Labour supporters.
I think that at an even election (ie one that is neck-and-neck between the parties) this site would also be pretty much 50/50.
I don't quite understand the comparisons on that new ComRes showing a 7% gap, as they seem to be producing several differently weighted polls.
All looks tight, though.
Well - apart from most other polls obviously.
Otter polls? Is the Tarka vote a thing now?
Edit: Rats, you’ve corrected the mistake!
Bloody otters. You got to watch them. I’m reliably informed by a bloke on Twitter that this is where Labour’s final squeeze will come from. Wildlife. Clever. Clever.
Polls completely ignoring the woodland / meadowland and river dwelling fauna. Question is: will they turn out? Does anyone have any data for this?
An anonymous bloke on Twitter has analysed the data, is cleverer than the professionals whose jobs rely on accuracy and has found that Herefordshire voles are underrepresented. This calls EVERYTHING into question.
I should add, that means, IT’S ON. Fap, fap, fap....
I am starting to have a little wobble on the Tory majority.
You should.
I 'think' they will win a narrow majority but I, too, am less-than-sure about this. My betting position is pretty neatly covered I think.
This is tight. Much much tighter than some on here are telling themselves.
After 2017 they are not taking anything for granted. I'm pretty happy it will be a decent (50+) majority.
Notwitstanding a child on a hospital floor, the final message of this campaign from the Tories will be the one that resonates - just make this shit-show of years of Westminster deadlock and game-playing end. Only anarchists want more of the same - and they don't vote. In the legions of undecided, it is what will deliver them at the ballot box.
To Boris.
And Boris's Love Actually bit of social media is perfect for the job. I suspect many of the final hold-outs of the Brexit Party will come round. The never-before-Tories of the Midlands and the North will go through with it (many not having admitted their intention to even their nearest and dearest, let alone a pollster). The "Corbyn is worse than Brexit" always-before-been-Tories will wobble from supporting Jo Swinson. Those seats it was unthinkable the Tories might lose will, come Friday, be just that again - unthinkable as Tory losses.
But many of those seats which Labour thought theirs for all time will either be gone or be turned into marginals.
Maybe. Maybe not. 62 hours to the exit poll......
Indeed, if you listened to TWAO yesterday with 8 undecided voters the majority, I think 6 out of 8 said if they had to vote now it would be Tory, either because they couldn't stand Corbyn, or just to Get Brexit Done.. That is the message that is resonating.
Tories at St John’s Wood tube again - much more effort than prior years in a 15k labour majority seat, albeit with significant Jewish community
I don't quite understand the comparisons on that new ComRes showing a 7% gap, as they seem to be producing several differently weighted polls.
All looks tight, though.
Well - apart from most other polls obviously.
Otter polls? Is the Tarka vote a thing now?
Edit: Rats, you’ve corrected the mistake!
Bloody otters. You got to watch them. I’m reliably informed by a bloke on Twitter that this is where Labour’s final squeeze will come from. Wildlife. Clever. Clever.
Polls completely ignoring the woodland / meadowland and river dwelling fauna. Question is: will they turn out? Does anyone have any data for this?
You can see why they have tried to keep him in a box for so long. He really doesn't have any sense of what he is saying.
While I doubt the fevered excitement some are having for Boris's gaffes or poor word choices today will be bourne out, I do wonder why they are changing strategy now to make him much more prominent. To my surprise the cautious, restricted approach was working, why risk that on the assumption the red wall was crumbling and Boris was the man to knock it down, when it was apparenetly shaky enough without him plastering his face on the telly in more prominent ways, and ways that might arise from him cocking up?
Gyimah collapsed to third, looks like Felicity Buchan will gain Kensington back for the Tories
Bears out what I have been hearing (and sharing here) about the LibDem "surge" running out of steam and retreating in London/SE England.
They might yet be in trouble holding on elsewhere.....
Interesting, they're certainly in difficulty in the Scottish seats that they hold, from what I'm hearing.
They seem to be predicted to get anything from 1-5 in Scotland, even with an increase in vote.
O&S is nailed on Caithness has gone, from what I hear Hearing NE Fife swing to SNP East Dunbartonshire unknown Edinburgh West on a knife edge
I genuinely don't understand how Ed West is apparently down to the wire - that is what I am hearing too.
LDs actually increased vote in 2015, just got overtaken by the SNP surge. Absolutely demolished the opposition at the council elections in Almond Ward, if they had put up 3 candidates they would have al got in.
Frustrating betting experience.
The 3 or so times I've heard Jardine on the radio during the campaign she's come across terribly, smug, condescending with a hint of simmering anger.
Like a Lib Dem
As opposed to an SNP rep? Remember Blackadder? 'What is that ginger hedge and why is it moving? Oh God! Run! It's the Scots!"
You’ll never get an impartial account of events from this place, re canvassing etc. If it’s 80% Tory you’re going to get 80% pro Tory stuff, that’s the reality.
There’s nothing wrong with that of course but it is worth bearing in mind when hearing views that it’s going terribly for Labour. Of course they want it go terribly for Labour - so it’s classic confirmation bias.
You mistake a lot of people as Tories simply because they're not Labour supporters.
I think that at an even election (ie one that is neck-and-neck between the parties) this site would also be pretty much 50/50.
I asked the other day and I was told this sub was 80% Tory. I don’t think that’s inaccurate.
As the population ages, and has more chronic illness, those pressures will worsen.
Agree entirely. Social care provision is a key bottleneck that impedes smooth flow through the whole system. There simply isn’t enough of it - despite the fact it looks after 3x as many people per day as the NHS does.
In our local system, winter pressures (ha, misnomer as it’s all year round now) focus is on two things - getting senior clinical decision makers to the front door to ensure speedy diagnosis and divert patients who don’t need/shouldn’t be in hospital; and ensuring smooth flow out of hospital into home/social care. This requires real partnership working - which the organisational barriers don’t;t always
By and large the flow works ok and can cope with statistically normal variation in demand. But the slightest hiccough (an outbreak of of a vomiting bug on a community hospital ward for example) and the whole system clogs up and can take days to recover.
Use of the private sector is fundamental - it already provides much of our social care capacity, and is capable of vital surge capacity or ring-fences planned capacity that helps to ensure routine operations can continue.
Those who would deny all private sector involvement in care simply don’t understand the cost-effective role it can play in keeping the whole system running.
We also need to increase capacity in the primary care setting - too many people in A&E don’t need to be there but don’t feel they have an alternative
I’d also look at whether there is a way to add a triage facility before you even get to A&E. I’ve been a fan of walk in clinics in a retail setting to catch minor stuff
With a wife who is a GP regularly doing 12+ hour days when on call, I couldn’t agree more. She is the most committed of clinicians and can’t face the prospect of another 20 years on the frontline. It’s grim and I wonder how we will continue to recruit GPs.
In my experience walk-in centres are like extra motorway lanes and facilitate new demand rather than ease existing congestion.
We need to accept that people make the wrong decisions and scale A&E accordingly, by co-locating primary care, mental health services and walk-in centres there not elsewhere. And then rigorously triage patients appropriately.
I like co-location although the “pharmacy villages” that were tried a while back didn’t work.
But may be you can have triage which splits into either a minor treatment (could be fine with a GP facility I suppose) vs an A&E setting.
We have had my wife's 92 year old mother, who has Alzheimer's, living with uis for the last year. As her condition has deteriorated and we (more accuraely, my wife) has needed more help, it has become clear that there is little to no provision for it from the NHS or local authorities. Fortunately, we can pay for private help - but it is expensive (£50 an hour, £250 per 24 hours if we are away) - and even then it is irregular as sometimes there just aren't the people able to come. We are getting to the point where soon we are not going to be able to manage it and MiL will have to go into a home, but these are all heavily over-subscribed. In short, it is an absolute mess. There can be no doubt that large numbers of extemely frail and very ill old people are being left to fend for themselves or dependent on families who, with the best will in the world, do not have the finances or the skills necessary to look after them properly. My guess is that all of this is a massive strain on the mental health of large numbers of good citizens up and down this country. It is not sustainable - but it is hugely expensive to deal with and Brexit is going to make it worse.
I’m sorry to hear that
There are some very good new dementia homes being built - with internal gardens, circular corridors etc. If you can get into one of those vs a standard home it makes a huge difference
Gotta be honest as a Lib Dem the three updated constituency polls in London are really bad. Instead of squeezing the Labour vote we have gone backwards in two seats. Looks like the tactical voting message is not getting through. I am way out West so not involved in the London campaign but it does not look good for Thursday with probably only Richmond Park and just possibly Finchley & Golders Green in play.
From what I hear the LibDems are rather less confident of Hallam than they should be.
It would be extraordinary (but far from impossible) for the LDs to double their vote share (to 14.6% nationwide) but see their seats slip back.
The issue they have is that: - LD/Lab marginals are almost entirely University seats where belief in Corbyn remains strong - There are a number of LD Leave seats that are vulnerable (Eastbourne & North Norfolk) - The SNP's vote share is up as much as their's in Scotland, and all of their seats there (except O&S) are marginal - They look to fall just short in a swathe of Remainia
FPTP is utterly bananas. A joke system for a joke country.
Boris did not respond quickly enough over the photograph and Laura Kunnesberg ill judged tweets about a punch just added to the controversy
On 5 live this morning their report was more balanced and played the part where Boris did express concern on the photograph. They also re-iterated that the parents have complained to ipsos about political interference
It was a moment in the campaign just like AN but in the wider picture I do not see it changing votes
A podcast from Crewe yesterday summed up the election. Those taking part chose an angry emoji and one with a tear
One voter then seemed to speak for the others when he said it was a choice between
'A lying buffoon or a marxist and the lying buffoon wins it'
And there is why Boris should win a majority
And the country remains fucked. False dichotomy until it dies.
Comments
Small amounts on ranges of Tory majority between 21-50 with odds around 12.00.
Also bet on Tories most seats AND Boris to lose Uxbridge at 7.50.
I like decimal odds don’t @ me.
Regardless it is such a toxic subject but people have very strong views even if they won’t always bring them up on the doorstep.
Mind you that could be because every other policy they've come up with doesn't resonate.
And £58 billion can be found down the back of the settee for the women who managed not to see years and years of advertising about the pension changes. But it's a moral case, they have to right a wrong - after all, men live longer than women and they've always retired earlier, haven't they?
Yes, Brexit showed Labour pledges are meaningless, but it's not just Brexit - it's the trust element.
Social media reduction of a complex issue that has already been weaponised in the most trite of ways.
All sides were to blame. No one can claim any advantage from yesterday. A pox on all of them.
The first party to depoliticise health and care, and commit to genuine long-term cross-party discussion and consensus within the protection of a legal framework on the way forward for these vital services, should be on to a massive vote winner.
The fantasy that the Health Secretary can control or is accountable for some poor kid sleeping on his coat on the floor having waited too long for assessment, is simply a fantasy and a distraction.
We should outsource the NHS and Social Care to an independent equivalent of the Boundary Commission or Electoral Commission. Parliament’s role should be to set the parameters of what is required, and to agree a 10 year funding formula on a rolling basis once every parliament. Let the professionals then get on with delivery free of political interference and risk.
Sadly we don‘t have the the political talent or courage to do this.
Sadly there is nothing in the Tories' likely successful patchwork of cynicism and lies that offers much hope.
Now, it is possible that because he was not looking where he was going, the adviser, before seeing the video himself, did genuinely believe he had been punched by thousands of marauding Corbynista cyclists but is it not more likely that CCHQ's noses were growing?
I can't help thinking that May 17 would have been like a deer in the headlights until after polling day. Its not for the squeamish, political campaigns rarely are, but there has been a ruthless efficiency to this campaign that every now and then looks just a little too brutal. I think that it will do the job. Tory majority 50+
All looks tight, though.
Edit: Rats, you’ve corrected the mistake!
I reckon it’s very tight - and if you look at Comres Labour’s vote is almost at 80%. This is where the final squeeze will come from.
I’d also look at whether there is a way to add a triage facility before you even get to A&E. I’ve been a fan of walk in clinics in a retail setting to catch minor stuff
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1204306504276414464?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed&ref_url=http://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/8254/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-let-s-talk-about-islamophobia/p1
Does anyone know if the cash out button can be disabled? All I want to do is to view my bets. I hardly ever cash out - and if I did want to I`d go to my computer not the app.
Polls completely ignoring the woodland / meadowland and river dwelling fauna. Question is: will they turn out? Does anyone have any data for this?
It’s easy to find people in Labour Leave seats who hate Labour, in many 30%+ of the vote is Tory anyway.
The significant thing is how many 2017 Labour Leave voters come back to Labour (as they are slowly doing) and how unified Labour’s Remain vote is in those seats. We must not forget that in all seats the majority of Labour voters voted to Remain.
In my experience walk-in centres are like extra motorway lanes and facilitate new demand rather than ease existing congestion.
We need to accept that people make the wrong decisions and scale A&E accordingly, by co-locating primary care, mental health services and walk-in centres there not elsewhere. And then rigorously triage patients appropriately.
Unless the last few polls show a swing to labour and MRP shows less than 340 tory seats a hung parliament seems extremely unlikely at this point. I don't think it'll be tight.
Shame on you all.
With so many voters undecided, there is a lot of vote for Labour to still pick up.
HP, I am sticking with it.
https://twitter.com/tvrav/status/1204177672814956544?s=21
https://twitter.com/tvrav/status/1204180222138077189?s=21
https://twitter.com/tvrav/status/1204180252752302082?s=21
https://twitter.com/tvrav/status/1204197914287001601?s=21
Boris did not respond quickly enough over the photograph and Laura Kunnesberg ill judged tweets about a punch just added to the controversy
On 5 live this morning their report was more balanced and played the part where Boris did express concern on the photograph. They also re-iterated that the parents have complained to ipsos about political interference
It was a moment in the campaign just like AN but in the wider picture I do not see it changing votes
A podcast from Crewe yesterday summed up the election. Those taking part chose an angry emoji and one with a tear
One voter then seemed to speak for the others when he said it was a choice between
'A lying buffoon or a marxist and the lying buffoon wins it'
And there is why Boris should win a majority
We know. You’ve told us this. Many times. Many many times. Many many many times. Many times.
(Apologies to Round the Horne fans).
Certain Labour rampers seem to want to overlook all the Labour lies, including those told by Jezbollah himself.
This was mine from last Thursday - if anything I would go slightly bigger now...because I hadn’t factored in the otter vote.
Con 43% 355 seats
Lab 33% 215 seats
Lib Dem 14% 15 seats
SNP 46 seats
Brexit Party 0 seats.
Green 1 seat.
Others 18 seats.
Con Majority 60
There’s nothing wrong with that of course but it is worth bearing in mind when hearing views that it’s going terribly for Labour. Of course they want it go terribly for Labour - so it’s classic confirmation bias.
NEW THREAD
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-asia-50709830/aung-san-suu-kyi-how-a-peace-icon-ended-up-at-a-genocide-trial
I think that at an even election (ie one that is neck-and-neck between the parties) this site would also be pretty much 50/50.
Con 42% 354 seats
Lab 33% 210 seats
Lib Dem 15% 20 seats
SNP 45 seats
Brexit Party 0 seats.
Green 1 seat.
Others 20 seats.
I should add, that means, IT’S ON. Fap, fap, fap....
But may be you can have triage which splits into either a minor treatment (could be fine with a GP facility I suppose) vs an A&E setting.
There are some very good new dementia homes being built - with internal gardens, circular corridors etc. If you can get into one of those vs a standard home it makes a huge difference