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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Your PB easy access guide to who is standing where
Once again thanks to Andy JS for putting together a spreadsheet to help guide us through the election a fortnight on Thursday.
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Firstly, there is the US system where there are many, many different classes of visas. You can be an investor. A manager. An inter-corporate transfer. A student. A lottery winner. A genius. A family member. Quotas for specific professions. This, by and large, gets the right people into the country, but it comes with significant costs, in implementation and in the assumption the government knows the right numbers of people at any time.
Secondly, there is the free market way, where you basically trust the free market to find the right people. That's the old US way. (And is used for US-Canada, Australia-New Zealand, or inter-EEA.) That means you get people who add value, and people who don't. But you also let the market decide, and you remove transactional costs.
I personally prefer a hybrid system, where you have a "fee" to come. (Of course there would be rules such as no criminal record. It could be implemented via compulsory health insurance, as in Switzerland, or a one entrance charge. This could be on a sliding scale with age, so that a 20 year old pays a tenth of a 60 year old.) This means there are negligible transaction and implementation costs, it augments government revenue, and it means there is little incentive for low skilled workers to come.
https://www.mpsontwitter.co.uk/list
Anyway, a quick thanks to AndyJS. Very useful.
It's an opinion I suppose.
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1200112699021115392
We will make it easier for British expats to vote in Parliamentary elections, and get rid of the arbitrary 15-year limit on their voting rights
I think Boris ducking Neil is a serious mistake. And a stupid one.
I find myself instantly losing respect for him at the prospect of it. Admittedly, I didn’t have much of it to start with, but I thought he did ok at the QT special last Friday night.
Getting a ”frit” meme snowballing is a horrible label to have hung round your neck in the last 2 weeks before polling day when you’re relying on your best PM lead and a ‘balls of steel’ reputation.
Of course, a party that sought to prosper by pandering to xenophobia would not find them a likely source of votes.
Remarkable, isn’t it?
The Tory campaign also seems to have put the engine into neutral and thinks it can coast through the next two weeks now to polling day. The Conservatives were going on about fucking potholes on their Twitter feed last night. POT. HOLES.
Muppets.
Wafer-thin majority is my view, and probably two less than Cameron for the lolz. Almost the worst possible result for Boris and will make him a prisoner of the ERG.
p.s. He's also running a bone-dry, fiscally-conservative spending policy of the sort I believe you favour, so there's precious little to talk about in terms of the big-ticket policies that people want to hear about.
I never thought the Cons would be so stupid.
Think about how different they are to BBC, Sky or ITV.
I’m afraid I now consider them a partisan broadcaster, and this behaviour during an election campaign is unforgivable.
Truth is, we're all guessing a bit here aren't we? My thesis is, quite simply, that not that much has changed since 2017 and we all know what happened then.
This time around, the Conservatives have probably squeezed all that they're going to out of the Brexit Party vote, whereas the Lib Dems still have further to drop. The Labour habit vote is very sticky, and Labour drones on endlessly about the NHS for a reason: it works. Despite all the awful headlines Corbyn's dreadful leadership ratings are improving, Johnson's are moving in the other direction.
I said when this all kicked off that I thought the Tories would either get just over the finishing line or fall just short. I now think it more likely that they'll fall short. The Conservative seats won in 2017 probably represent, in broad-brush terms, the maximum extent of toleration for austerity, which has been going on for a decade now. Labour's vast expenditure plans, as ludicrous as they appear, will probably attract more of the lower middle income swing voters that they need to win back than they'll repel. Brexit ought to help them a little, but most of the Labour Leave seats are held by large margins and the surviving Brexit Party candidates will get in the way as well. Taking into account all of this and the number of marginal defences they have against the SNP, the Tories may very well go slightly backwards.
Once again, this is all an educated guess. One could just as easily argue that the YouGov MRP called it right last time and will, therefore, probably be about right this time. But their projected national share of the vote (Con 43, Lab 32, LD 14) just doesn't smell right. The polls have been showing a slow but steady improvement for Labour since the start of the campaign, we've already had a couple of 34% results so far this week, and there's still a fortnight to go until the big day. And yes, the Tories were doing slightly better when all the postal votes went out, but only about 1 in 5 votes will be cast in this fashion.
We shall soon find out if I'm on the right track here, because we shall see further tightening in the polls over the next few days. This does not necessarily preclude a Conservative majority but, unless UNS proves to be a very poor guide for this election and the Tories do manage to stack up the votes where they need them most (i.e. with outsized swings in the Midlands and the North,) then the likelihood of a Hung Parliament increases, of course, with each percentage point reduction in the Con-Lab spread.
The point is that the Conservative manifesto has many proposals (of which that is one) to increase the number of Conservative voters and limit the number of Labour voters. Its aims are not noble any more than are Labour's. Possibly they are worse in that they smack of US GOP-style vote suppression. Osborne/Cameron's gerrymandering was even ahead of the GOP.
I imagine that you and I, who have both lived and worked extensively abroad, could quickly work out something that allows for skilled and key workers, while preventing immigrant Big Issue sellers, organised beggars and child benefit exports. Or in California, thousands of H1(B)s displacing tech jobs to companies like Tata.
As you say, there’s a fine line between too much government intervention / bureaucracy and letting the free market work as it does best.
I hope we see the Tory lead cut to 5% because they don't deserve anything more.
Hopefully they will wake up out of their complacency.
Not surprising his handlers want to keep him away from too many interviews , the more you see of him the worse he looks .
I think I might do a thread entitled 'Why are Scots institutionally racist and bigoted?
Agreed. They have no right to do that. The viewers can make up their own minds if a party leader ducks a debate. C4 have stopped even pretending they are an impartial broadcaster.
Fuck it if the Tories don't give a f@ck why should I? Keep this up and i"ll vote BXP.
Boris better wake up, and fast.
Every country has strict rules and regulations on who can become citizens.
The proposal is to review their broadcasting licence after the election, not to smash up the channel, and see if they’ve broken their public service obligations.
I think that is fair enough.
Yeah. I’ve stopped betting on a Tory majority now.
My bets are on voteshares and constituencies.
https://twitter.com/robertlargan/status/1200121847804772352
French person here 15 years planning to stay > Irish person here 1 year planning to leave or indeed UK person who has been absent for 20 years with no plans to return.
Unbelievable, they had this election handed to them on a plate, and Boris actually trying to blow it. How thick can he get?
Buffoon. F$ck it let's just have a Corbyn government for a term, then maybe we can get some Tory leaders who actually know what they are doing!
Arghhhhhhh! I want to scream!
https://mobile.twitter.com/BBCNewsPR/status/1200121657337225216
And more handsomely than Cameron and Osborne ever managed......
Boris is repeating exactly the same mistakes as May, and has far fewer excuses for when a hung Parliament results.
Idiot.
After all, Parliament isn't exactly famed for being stuffed to the gunwales with talented individuals these days, now is it?
https://twitter.com/alasdair_clark/status/1200127727111737346
Labours proposal is not what I would go for, but it is clear both parties are looking at what is best for themselves not what is fair. It is the hypocrisy I dislike.
I think fair is if you have been here for x years (between 3-5?) with NI contributions you can vote, and if you are an expat you lose the right to vote at some point.
If Channel 4 wants to be completely independent it should be completely independent. I for one want to see "public service broadcasting" abolished as its an anachronous in this day and age not because of any debate.
The tories nowadays are simply shit.
Honestly, who’d want to be an MP?
I wouldn’t.
Neil is a Westminster bubble story, especially since Boris has already gone head-to-head with Corbyn, and will do so again.
Forget the salary (and it is a low salary compared to what professionals earn)
You'd have constant threats of violence, your family feeling bad you're getting criticised.
Also, you're not allowed to have a past.
I'm glad I'm old enough to have missed being a student with social media and camera phones everywhere.
Why hasn't your hypothetical French person bothered to take citizenship if they've been here for 15 years and are planning to stay? They can get citizenship if they want it if they've been here that long and then they can vote.