OK superbrains - please let me know how to reconcile the following: 1) MRP YouGov poll gives est. Cons seat maj of 68 2) Electoral Calculus has just revised its seat prediction down further to 12 seats (which I appreciate comes after the 7pt lead polls). Thanks team.
YouGov is based on Tories winning by 11% and was taken over the course of the last week (which began with Labour still sub 30%). From the slide that was tweeted, it seems they have picked up a bit of the Labour surge, but the polls over the past 2 days have shown that the surge is bigger than that.
I think if YouGov had just covered the last 5 days, their prediction would be for a very smaller Tory majority.
OK superbrains - please let me know how to reconcile the following: 1) MRP YouGov poll gives est. Cons seat maj of 68 2) Electoral Calculus has just revised its seat prediction down further to 12 seats (which I appreciate comes after the 7pt lead polls). Thanks team.
Electoral Calculus revised their model to account for more SNP-friendly results in Scotland and increased likelihood of tactical voting, IIRC, after their previous iteration was coming out with stonking Tory majorities with some very eyebrow-raising results in some seats. I don’t think it factored in TBP having stood down in Tory held seats either, but I think it does now?
Personally I think they’ve overcorrected. The results look a bit more believable now but I think they are slightly too conservative for the size of the majority on single figure leads.
Mr Smithson Senior is REALLY keen to reassure us that the Tories are going to cruise home.
In the same way the Tories are saying Corbyn is just short of getting in to No.10. The Lib Dem argument that a vote for them is not enabling either side is a not unreasonable one.
Unless they are going straight for a second election they will be enabling someone to form a government
Now I am reminded of it by people below, might I ask if anyone can check in on Williamglen if they have his details and make sure he is okay. We argue incessantly but I do have a lot of time for him and would like to know he is well.
Electoral Calculus revised their model to account for more SNP-friendly results in Scotland and increased likelihood of tactical voting, IIRC, after their previous iteration was coming out with stonking Tory majorities with some very eyebrow-raising results in some seats. I don’t think it factored in TBP having stood down in Tory held seats either, but I think it does now? Personally I think they’ve overcorrected. The results look a bit more believable now but I think they are slightly too conservative for the size of the majority on single figure leads.
Thanks yes they have already corrected for TBP not standing. Dates on their latest prediction are 20-26 Nov (vs 19-26 Nov) so it looks like a rolling average-type calculation. Which also make sense.
Just struck me. The board has become a lot more "Tory" and Brexity as the inevitability of them both triumphing has become clear. Where is @williamglenn Where is @Scott_P Where is the mighty @Noo ??
Scott P had a history of popping up only when things were going against the Tories. So as long as he stays away things are probably OK for them
Scott used to be a big Tory support, it was only Brexit that sent him into his current stance.
It is odd he has gone AWOL, as long as I have been posting on here, I think he has been downloading twitter on a daily basis.
Wasn't there (sensibly) an edict from on high that required a lessening of (mostly pointless) tweets posted and clogging up threads? A rule that ScottP could never live with, I would imagine
OK superbrains - please let me know how to reconcile the following: 1) MRP YouGov poll gives est. Cons seat maj of 68 2) Electoral Calculus has just revised its seat prediction down further to 12 seats (which I appreciate comes after the 7pt lead polls). Thanks team.
ElectoralCalculus is the only polling average site or page that has the Tory lead under 10%. Not sure how they reached that figure.
I presume the pollsters have taken vote efficiency into consideration in these MRP models?
I think so, yes, although I'm not sure exactly how. The straw I'm clinging to is that somehow (i) the VI gap narrows to 7 or less and (ii) the anti-Con (and remainer) tactical voting is very determined and smart. Are you feeling determined and smart?
It seems obvious to me that the anti-Tory tactical voting will be less efficient than in 2017. Firstly, Corbyn is more tarnished now, repelling more tactical voters. Secondly, it was obvious in 2017 that the anti-Tory tactical vote had to be for Labour, but for all that the Lib Dems have had a disappointing campaign the MRP still shows there are lots more constituencies where they are better placed than Labour than in 2017. May has her place in history. Ain't no tactical voting against Johnson going to take that away from her.
Mrs M herself isn’t going to take this result very well.
Afternoon all Well,the YouGov MRP has put a spring in some Conservative steps but i think all it does is show how open this election remains. The YouGov poll on which the MRP forecast is based showed a 43-32 lead but ComRes last night had 41-34 and while that may not sound like much, a number of the projected Conservative gains are by a fingertip. We are still two weeks from polling day - many people will not have engaged with the election at this time. I well remember in 2005 when I was working for a sitting LD MP and the canvass numbers two weeks out showed him losing by 2000 but he got back so there's an eternity for things to change. IF (and it's a huge IF I accept), the Conservatives slip sub-40 and Labour move consistently above 35 this will becomes very tight. I Baxtered a 38-36-14 poll split and it all looks very messy. As I have and will say, history is rarely symmetrical and those seeking to find order out of chaos usually end up disappointed. Johnson has no allies if he comes up short - The DUP the the LDs will demand prices Johnson can't pay but the numbers would then be against his WA and we would be looking at crashing out of the EU on 31/1/20 although Parliament might have the votes to force Johnson to seek an extension at which point we will see if Johnson means what he says.
OK superbrains - please let me know how to reconcile the following: 1) MRP YouGov poll gives est. Cons seat maj of 68 2) Electoral Calculus has just revised its seat prediction down further to 12 seats (which I appreciate comes after the 7pt lead polls). Thanks team.
EC is based on the polling average over 6 days. It also has a ridiculously wide range (max tory seats 451!)
Too many chickens are being counted.... some of them by non-Tories thinking we 'wets' may be tempted to peel off to the yellows... which I could easily have done.
Shame about their being in bed with the welsh independents as I may have mentioned as being my main problem.
Jo Swinson, the woman who took the LDs from storming all in the Euros to Tim Farron levels of meh. A salutory lesson in hubris
This election could have been really interesting with the LDs on 20% breathing down Labour's neck.
It wouldn't have made the slightest difference if Ed Davey or Tom Brake or anyone else had been the leader apart from the fact we'd have been spared the misogynistic insults. There are a number of reasons why the LD campaign has struggled so far this time but I'll save the postmortem until well after 12/12.
OK superbrains - please let me know how to reconcile the following: 1) MRP YouGov poll gives est. Cons seat maj of 68 2) Electoral Calculus has just revised its seat prediction down further to 12 seats (which I appreciate comes after the 7pt lead polls). Thanks team.
OK superbrains - please let me know how to reconcile the following: 1) MRP YouGov poll gives est. Cons seat maj of 68 2) Electoral Calculus has just revised its seat prediction down further to 12 seats (which I appreciate comes after the 7pt lead polls). Thanks team.
One of them is wrong
Or they're both wrong. It's more likely EC is wrong. Baxter is quite clear about his model breaking down if his assumptions are wrong - and YouGov highlighting genuine shifts in demographic voting patterns certainly qualifies.
Too many chickens are being counted.... some of them by non-Tories thinking we 'wets' may be tempted to peel off to the yellows... which I could easily have done.
Shame about their being in bed with the welsh independents as I may have mentioned as being my main problem.
I'm rationalising my vote for the Yellow Peril as a direct vote to stop a Corbynista being elected in my seat, as the last one proved to be so stellar.
7 candidates now suspended despite being on the ballot paper:
Ryan Houghton (Con, Aberdeen North) Waheed Rafiq (LD, B'ham Hodge Hill) Safia Ali (Lab, Falkirk) Flora Scarabello (Con, Glasgow Central) Victor Farrell (Brexit Party, Glenrothe) Ben Mathis (LD, Hackney North & Stoke Newington) Amjad Bashir (Con, Leeds North East)
In addition to these, Sophie Cook (Independent in Worthing East & Shoreham) has decided to stand down herself, but she's also still on the ballot paper because the decision was made after nominations closed.
Odd that Labour's not phoned the BBC to get it changed.
They should. There's been a few little bits of monkey business from the Beeb in recent days. And that is not to mention Laura K's twitter feed. I've never been one for BBC bias theories, it's usually complete nonsense, and I'm still not. But I'm watching them just a tad more closely now.
OK superbrains - please let me know how to reconcile the following: 1) MRP YouGov poll gives est. Cons seat maj of 68 2) Electoral Calculus has just revised its seat prediction down further to 12 seats (which I appreciate comes after the 7pt lead polls). Thanks team.
One of them is wrong
Or they're both wrong. It's more likely EC is wrong. Baxter is quite clear about his model breaking down if his assumptions are wrong - and YouGov highlighting genuine shifts in demographic voting patterns certainly qualifies.
If you read up on how EC/Baxter works, it isn’t very convincing. Even the later fixes are crude bodges to try and paper over the more obvious cracks.
Too many chickens are being counted.... some of them by non-Tories thinking we 'wets' may be tempted to peel off to the yellows... which I could easily have done.
Shame about their being in bed with the welsh independents as I may have mentioned as being my main problem.
I'm rationalising my vote for the Yellow Peril as a direct vote to stop a Corbynista being elected in my seat, as the last one proved to be so stellar.
Slightly shocking that the LDs are only 7% ahead of Lab in Hallam with YouGov MRP.
Just struck me. The board has become a lot more "Tory" and Brexity as the inevitability of them both triumphing has become clear. Where is @williamglenn Where is @Scott_P Where is the mighty @Noo ??
Odd that Labour's not phoned the BBC to get it changed.
They should. There's been a few little bits of monkey business from the Beeb in recent days. And that is not to mention Laura K's twitter feed. I've never been one for BBC bias theories, it's usually complete nonsense, and I'm still not. But I'm watching them just a tad more closely now.
Ayup lads, we better clean up our act, Kinbalu is watching us
Too many chickens are being counted.... some of them by non-Tories thinking we 'wets' may be tempted to peel off to the yellows... which I could easily have done.
Shame about their being in bed with the welsh independents as I may have mentioned as being my main problem.
I'm rationalising my vote for the Yellow Peril as a direct vote to stop a Corbynista being elected in my seat, as the last one proved to be so stellar.
It is one of those things we all do once, and then wake up the next day feeling somewhat soiled.
They should. There's been a few little bits of monkey business from the Beeb in recent days. And that is not to mention Laura K's twitter feed. I've never been one for BBC bias theories, it's usually complete nonsense, and I'm still not. But I'm watching them just a tad more closely now.
Yep you keep your eyes out for them. Make sure you include everything in your report and that the report gets circulated widely. You can't trust these guys further than you can throw them. I for one am looking forward to seeing your findings. Never forget they are a small but important cog in the military-industrial complex that we are all fighting against.
Yep you keep your eyes out for them. Make sure you include everything in your report and that the report gets circulated widely. You can't trust these guys further than you can throw them. I for one am looking forward to seeing your findings. Never forget they are a small but important cog in the military-industrial complex that we are all fighting against.
I'm going to buck the MRP lovefest trend and stick my neck out. Providing the antisemitism attacks don't cause Corbyn further damage, I think it will a Hung Parliament. Labour vote is firming up, especially in Leave areas.
Remarkable that a party which believes that there's "something wrong" with people who don't hate Brexit would be firming up in leave areas.. https://youtu.be/kzDnqVyiWT0?t=5
Too many chickens are being counted.... some of them by non-Tories thinking we 'wets' may be tempted to peel off to the yellows... which I could easily have done.
Shame about their being in bed with the welsh independents as I may have mentioned as being my main problem.
I'm rationalising my vote for the Yellow Peril as a direct vote to stop a Corbynista being elected in my seat, as the last one proved to be so stellar.
Slightly shocking that the LDs are only 7% ahead of Lab in Hallam with YouGov MRP.
Isn't it full of students? Perhaps Jo Swinson's voting coalition record isn't convincing them.
Yep you keep your eyes out for them. Make sure you include everything in your report and that the report gets circulated widely. You can't trust these guys further than you can throw them. I for one am looking forward to seeing your findings. Never forget they are a small but important cog in the military-industrial complex that we are all fighting against.
Are you quite alright there, Topping? Because I don't know what I did to deserve that bucket of magisterial scorn. Is it the imminent triumph of the gruesome twosome (Boris & Brexit) that is getting to you? Fair enough if so. You are not alone.
Slightly offtopic, but Tulsi Gabbard interviewed by Joe Rogan about the day she got blacklisted by Google without explanation - which just happened to be the day of the first Democrat debate. Also notable for her f-word in the interview, not something I’ve ever heard from the mouth of a British politician. Prediction: the 2020 US election is going to be an almighty sh!t show, with Google and Facebook in the middle of it. Whoever wins, those two companies are going to be in a lot of regulatory trouble. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=w5o-zqII6eQ
The level of incompetence knows no bounds. The name of a Conservative candidate is spelt wrong on the ballot paper - but it's his fault because it was spelt wrong on his nomination papers. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/election-2019-50582197
Can anyone explain why people are so optimistic on the Tories' chances in Scotland? The latest poll suggests the SNP lead over the Tories has increased to 18pp from 8pp in 2017. There are 9 Tory held Scottish seats where the Tories had a lead of less than 10pp in 2017. And yet, the YG MRP expects the SNP to take just 2 seats from the Tories, and based on SNP seat totals Electoral Calculus and the betting markets expect something similar. My model predicts 10 SNP gains from Con. What does everyone know that I don't?
Are you quite alright there, Topping? Because I don't know what I did to deserve that bucket of magisterial scorn. Is it the imminent triumph of the gruesome twosome (Boris & Brexit) that is getting to you? Fair enough if so. You are not alone.
Comrade! Is this a test?! I am with you in the struggle!!
Did MysticRose get banned? The comments the other night were unacceptable. No way is that person a LibDem supporter.
She’s that special category of “claimed-LibDem-but-Jezza-is-so-convincing-I’m-going-to-switch”
Known as a “Wollaston” for short
Errr ... no my points were well-argued but in this febrile atmosphere not everyone wishes to engage on an intellecutal level.
On which subject, it was great to see Margaret Thatcher's brilliant climate change speech again posted on here last night.
I'm a pragmatist above all else. Otherwise known as a Remainer. And a tactical voter.
Ignore us in your betting stakes at your peril.
It was more not wanting to engage on an anti semitic level than an intellectual one
No, I suggested that the 'Jewish community' need to be very careful not to appear to isolate antisemitism from other forms of racism, which are also on the increase, lest they play directly into the hands of those spreading this awful scourge.
It was a lesson drilled into me by Jewish peoples in Israel.
300 activists on a single seat o_O. Sounds like an absolubte-ly fucking mental amount. Assume 30,000 flats and houses in a constituency that works out at a hundred houses a person. That's a couple of hours for leafletting and perhaps twice that for a canvass. What are the activists doing with the rest of their time ? Couldn't they spare any for nearby seats ?!
It's a tricky one - at the last election, Momentum had the same positive strategy, and it paid off with Labour winning some seats they'd given up on. A lot of seats which the party put defensive effort into were actually won easily.
Hitting the sweet spot is the tricky bit, and with the polling last time being so far out, is it right to take a chance on being positive?
btw. Interesting that they mention Bury South as a seat which is being ignored. A quick look at the Labour candidates feed shows groups of 100+ activists out campaigning, and various shadow cabinet members.
Can anyone explain why people are so optimistic on the Tories' chances in Scotland? The latest poll suggests the SNP lead over the Tories has increased to 18pp from 8pp in 2017. There are 9 Tory held Scottish seats where the Tories had a lead of less than 10pp in 2017. And yet, the YG MRP expects the SNP to take just 2 seats from the Tories, and based on SNP seat totals Electoral Calculus and the betting markets expect something similar. My model predicts 10 SNP gains from Con. What does everyone know that I don't?
Because the predictions are based on two different polls? I think we've had two good indicators for SCon (YouGov model, Panelbase) vs one less good (MORI).
The top donation in the second week of campaigning was from the union, Unite, which gave £3m to the Labour Party. The next highest donation from 13 to 19 November was £2m to the Brexit Party, from businessman Christopher Harborne.
Did MysticRose get banned? The comments the other night were unacceptable. No way is that person a LibDem supporter.
She’s that special category of “claimed-LibDem-but-Jezza-is-so-convincing-I’m-going-to-switch”
Known as a “Wollaston” for short
Errr ... no my points were well-argued but in this febrile atmosphere not everyone wishes to engage on an intellecutal level.
On which subject, it was great to see Margaret Thatcher's brilliant climate change speech again posted on here last night.
I'm a pragmatist above all else. Otherwise known as a Remainer. And a tactical voter.
Ignore us in your betting stakes at your peril.
It was more not wanting to engage on an anti semitic level than an intellectual one
No, I suggested that the 'Jewish community' need to be very careful not to appear to isolate antisemitism from other forms of racism, which are also on the increase, lest they play directly into the hands of those spreading this awful scourge.
It was a lesson drilled into me by Jewish peoples in Israel.
So there!
So you say. To me it read as an anti semitic diatribe with thinly veiled threats to the Jewish community to shut up
I'm going to buck the MRP lovefest trend and stick my neck out. Providing the antisemitism attacks don't cause Corbyn further damage, I think it will a Hung Parliament. Labour vote is firming up, especially in Leave areas.
Thank you Rose! What a compassionate little note. I'm printing it off and taking it to Waitrose to show people.
Did MysticRose get banned? The comments the other night were unacceptable. No way is that person a LibDem supporter.
She’s that special category of “claimed-LibDem-but-Jezza-is-so-convincing-I’m-going-to-switch”
Known as a “Wollaston” for short
Errr ... no my points were well-argued but in this febrile atmosphere not everyone wishes to engage on an intellecutal level.
On which subject, it was great to see Margaret Thatcher's brilliant climate change speech again posted on here last night.
I'm a pragmatist above all else. Otherwise known as a Remainer. And a tactical voter.
Ignore us in your betting stakes at your peril.
It was more not wanting to engage on an anti semitic level than an intellectual one
No, I suggested that the 'Jewish community' need to be very careful not to appear to isolate antisemitism from other forms of racism, which are also on the increase, lest they play directly into the hands of those spreading this awful scourge.
It was a lesson drilled into me by Jewish peoples in Israel.
So there!
So you say. To me it read as an anti semitic diatribe with thinly veiled threats to the Jewish community to shut up
To you perhaps. To anyone wishing to stop and think about it, it's an utterly vital point.
Without wishing to go all Godwin, it's how it all began. These are dangerous times.
Anyway, not one for now. Something to return to perhaps post-election when hopefully folk who are beating a partisan drum can take off their rosettes and begin thinking again.
To wit, I repeat how good it was to see Maggie's climate change speech posted up here.
She was a giant, regardless of one's take on her politics.
I presume the pollsters have taken vote efficiency into consideration in these MRP models?
I think so, yes, although I'm not sure exactly how. The straw I'm clinging to is that somehow (i) the VI gap narrows to 7 or less and (ii) the anti-Con (and remainer) tactical voting is very determined and smart. Are you feeling determined and smart?
It is hard to know, because we could also see the opposite with the likes of Remain voters in your Guildford's of the world thinking s##t we can't risk Jezza and voting Tory, where as if it looked like a home run for the Tories of 100 majority (as I think was the case in the YouGov MRP model if it has been released 10 days ago) I think you would have found them voting Lib Dem. I think the bigger factor is if all these lifelong Labour Leave voters do stick with the Tories or go home, especially with "Honest Broker" Jezza act.
If Corbyn gets in, it will be as a minority govt, but I do not think he stands a chance. His campaign is dreadfully shambolic. Labour's only hope is the LDs fading from sight (as seems to be happening)
I presume the pollsters have taken vote efficiency into consideration in these MRP models?
I think so, yes, although I'm not sure exactly how. The straw I'm clinging to is that somehow (i) the VI gap narrows to 7 or less and (ii) the anti-Con (and remainer) tactical voting is very determined and smart. Are you feeling determined and smart?
Tactical voting around here does not mean anything. It is a REALLY safe seat. I will probably vote LD just so I can live with myself and not have my conscious beat me up over not voting. However, it is a thin line and if I miss voting for some reason I will not cry about it.
Final point for now, as there seems to be a little tetchiness in the air, I would like to repeat something I said last night, and which others have noted.
The MRP pays no attention to tactical voting. This is a HUGE error. For people like me for whom on this occasion remaining in the EU trumps party loyalty, this is a driver that will affect the results in a significant number of seats.
If you bet at all, I'd advise you to do so accordingly. Tactical voting will be a hallmark of this election.
Without wishing to go all Godwin, it's how it all began. These are dangerous times.
That's what I thought you were doing last time; blaming the Jewsish(sic) thinking they were special for the hol0caust. Because some Jews told you so. Do you just hang out with Jews4Jezza?
Labours candidate in East Renfrewshire asking voters not to vote for her
Yes, that was at the hustings last night. To be fair, I don't imagine many people in East Ren are going to vote for her, but it was refreshingly honest.
I spoke to a Labour activist in East Ham High Street on Tuesday morning and asked why fifteen of them were out with a stall and handing out leaflets in Labour's third safest seat when they could have been out in more marginal seats. He told me Labour had "hundreds" of activists and were covering all the key defences and a few Conservative seats they hoped to win. I heard they had 300 who had gone to Putney, Battersea, Hendon, Enfield North and others. I asked about the more local seats and again this activist had claimed he "and dozens of activists" regularly went to Dagenham & Rainham and Ilford North. There's a point about having too many activists but if it's not door knocking it's delivery or clerical work or just standing out in the High Street as a presence. When I was an Agent back in the day I once had 20 come out with the candidate and we did a rolling canvass up and down four long roads in one evening - we still lost by 20,000. Labour won't lose in London and the South for lack of resources but I sense the election is more defensive than offensive in terms of winning enough seats to gain a majority but taking and holding enough to deny Boris a majority. That being said, if the polls indicated a closer result Labour are in a position to move resources quickly into potential new targets (I'm sure the Conservatives are as well).
I presume the pollsters have taken vote efficiency into consideration in these MRP models?
I think so, yes, although I'm not sure exactly how. The straw I'm clinging to is that somehow (i) the VI gap narrows to 7 or less and (ii) the anti-Con (and remainer) tactical voting is very determined and smart. Are you feeling determined and smart?
It is hard to know, because we could also see the opposite with the likes of Remain voters in your Guildford's of the world thinking s##t we can't risk Jezza and voting Tory, where as if it looked like a home run for the Tories of 100 majority (as I think was the case in the YouGov MRP model if it has been released 10 days ago) I think you would have found them voting Lib Dem. I think the bigger factor is if all these lifelong Labour Leave voters do stick with the Tories or go home, especially with "Honest Broker" Jezza act.
If Corbyn gets in, it will be as a minority govt, but I do not think he stands a chance. His campaign is dreadfully shambolic. Labour's only hope is the LDs fading from sight (as seems to be happening)
I actually think the Labour campaign has been decent if you don't care about the antisemitism (which clearly a lot of people don't) nor worry about the magic money tree (which again a lot of people don't). What they have done is have a new policy every day to catch the headlines.
In comparison, the Tory and Lib Dem campaigns have been horrifically bad.
I presume the pollsters have taken vote efficiency into consideration in these MRP models?
I think so, yes, although I'm not sure exactly how. The straw I'm clinging to is that somehow (i) the VI gap narrows to 7 or less and (ii) the anti-Con (and remainer) tactical voting is very determined and smart. Are you feeling determined and smart?
It is hard to know, because we could also see the opposite with the likes of Remain voters in your Guildford's of the world thinking s##t we can't risk Jezza and voting Tory, where as if it looked like a home run for the Tories of 100 majority (as I think was the case in the YouGov MRP model if it has been released 10 days ago) I think you would have found them voting Lib Dem. I think the bigger factor is if all these lifelong Labour Leave voters do stick with the Tories or go home, especially with "Honest Broker" Jezza act.
If Corbyn gets in, it will be as a minority govt, but I do not think he stands a chance. His campaign is dreadfully shambolic. Labour's only hope is the LDs fading from sight (as seems to be happening)
On the other hand, they need the lib dems to be taking seats from the tories. if that doesn't happen, and the lib dems still to the 'teens' in seats, then that's not good for corb to get to be PM.
I see you have come off your mountain in a better. albeit very resigned mood. I share your opinion, including the last word. Johnson is either a shrewd political operator or a lucky clown. No-one seems to be sure which. But it actually doesn't matter.
Yes, a bit of buddhism works wonders. Mix of luck and political skill, I suppose. But, no, like you say, it really doesn't matter. Upshot is, many years of him (and them). FWIW, my opinion is that the Benn Act was what dun it. What set this up on a plate. A terrible error. 'We' - the cognescenti - the forces of all that is good and right in this world - we should have made BoJo own that 'No Deal or Extension?' choice. It would have skewered him. Ah well.
Personally I blame the LDs and their daft election idea.
I agree with you too, and they're my team.
If we hadn't had an election where would we be? The democratic dam had to break.
I agree, but why hand it to Boris at that point? They could have agreed to one the first week back in January and leave Boris with the embarrassment of dealing with Jan 31st and spend Xmas encouraging Farage to split Boris's vote. Instead they set a trap for themselves and walked straight in to it because they suffered from a political disease called "Corbyn's Blindness" where the sufferer, in spite of all evidence, believes they are on to be a dead-cert winner!!!!! Idiots. If anything shows Jo Swinson is not ready for the big-time, that was it.
Sure nobody cares but my thoughts on where we're going to end up!
My starting point is why would anyone voting Cons or Labour in 2017 not vote for them in 2019. I know there is some churn but I think it just muddies the waters.
For Cons I think their minimum is 40% based on losing some who can't stand Boris. Their ceiling is probably the 43.5% TMay got. Only way this could go higher, in my eyes, is to add any people in from 2017 who didn't vote due to Dementia Tax but will do this time.
Labour is harder but I'm not sure that they are going to lose as much as the polls currently show. I don't think there will be much switching between now and 12/12 apart from the Greens going back down to 2017 levels and some Lab 2017 voters who pretended they were going to vote Lib Dem going back.
The main thing will be the DK's disproportionately voting Lab. Apart from previous non-voters ending up voting Lab in 2017, I think this was the main reason the polls closed the gap last time.
My gut feel is Con 41/42, Lab 36/37 but Lab are more likely to be higher than Con. I think the polls will show this and there won't be the errors on the day shown in 2015 or 2017.
Would love people to reassure me that I'm wrong as this is a potential nightmare!
Can anyone explain why people are so optimistic on the Tories' chances in Scotland? The latest poll suggests the SNP lead over the Tories has increased to 18pp from 8pp in 2017. There are 9 Tory held Scottish seats where the Tories had a lead of less than 10pp in 2017. And yet, the YG MRP expects the SNP to take just 2 seats from the Tories, and based on SNP seat totals Electoral Calculus and the betting markets expect something similar. My model predicts 10 SNP gains from Con. What does everyone know that I don't?
Because there is no actual voter swing from Con to SNP. So the SNP only overtaken the Cons if the is Con to LD or Con to Lab swing.
Personally I blame the LDs and their daft election idea.
That too. And it hasn't worked out for them either. The dream of replacing Labour as the main non-Tory party remains just that. A dream.
About the only silver lining is Johnson unequivocally gets to own the Brexit disaster. Although governing the ashes of the economy for whomever comes next will be phyrric
Hillsborough police chief cleared of manslaughter Hillsborough match commander David Duckenfield has been found not guilty of the gross negligence manslaughter of 95 Liverpool fans in the 1989 disaster. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-50592077
I presume the pollsters have taken vote efficiency into consideration in these MRP models?
I think so, yes, although I'm not sure exactly how. The straw I'm clinging to is that somehow (i) the VI gap narrows to 7 or less and (ii) the anti-Con (and remainer) tactical voting is very determined and smart. Are you feeling determined and smart?
It is hard to know, because we could also see the opposite with the likes of Remain voters in your Guildford's of the world thinking s##t we can't risk Jezza and voting Tory, where as if it looked like a home run for the Tories of 100 majority (as I think was the case in the YouGov MRP model if it has been released 10 days ago) I think you would have found them voting Lib Dem. I think the bigger factor is if all these lifelong Labour Leave voters do stick with the Tories or go home, especially with "Honest Broker" Jezza act.
If Corbyn gets in, it will be as a minority govt, but I do not think he stands a chance. His campaign is dreadfully shambolic. Labour's only hope is the LDs fading from sight (as seems to be happening)
I actually think the Labour campaign has been decent if you don't care about the antisemitism (which clearly a lot of people don't) nor worry about the magic money tree (which again a lot of people don't). What they have done is have a new policy every day to catch the headlines. In comparison, the Tory and Lib Dem campaigns have been horrifically bad.
Are there TWO Labour campaigns? Given Corbyn's approach to things.....
I presume the pollsters have taken vote efficiency into consideration in these MRP models?
I think so, yes, although I'm not sure exactly how. The straw I'm clinging to is that somehow (i) the VI gap narrows to 7 or less and (ii) the anti-Con (and remainer) tactical voting is very determined and smart. Are you feeling determined and smart?
It is hard to know, because we could also see the opposite with the likes of Remain voters in your Guildford's of the world thinking s##t we can't risk Jezza and voting Tory, where as if it looked like a home run for the Tories of 100 majority (as I think was the case in the YouGov MRP model if it has been released 10 days ago) I think you would have found them voting Lib Dem. I think the bigger factor is if all these lifelong Labour Leave voters do stick with the Tories or go home, especially with "Honest Broker" Jezza act.
If Corbyn gets in, it will be as a minority govt, but I do not think he stands a chance. His campaign is dreadfully shambolic. Labour's only hope is the LDs fading from sight (as seems to be happening)
I actually think the Labour campaign has been decent if you don't care about the antisemitism (which clearly a lot of people don't) nor worry about the magic money tree (which again a lot of people don't). What they have done is have a new policy every day to catch the headlines. In comparison, the Tory and Lib Dem campaigns have been horrifically bad.
Are there TWO Labour campaigns? Given Corbyn's approach to things.....
I am no fan of Corbyn (as I think everybody on here knows), but he did fine in the head to head debate. Yes he crashed and burned vs Andrew Neil, but the audience was fairly small. He is a moron, who has no idea how unrealistic his manifesto actually is, but he has a well rehearsed script (he has been doing it for 40 years) and believe in it. Ignorance is bliss and all that. You have to look at it through the eyes of most people who only give these things a passing glance, and I think what they see is new stuff from Labour every day targeting different groups, so something for everybody.
Final point for now, as there seems to be a little tetchiness in the air, I would like to repeat something I said last night, and which others have noted.
The MRP pays no attention to tactical voting. This is a HUGE error. For people like me for whom on this occasion remaining in the EU trumps party loyalty, this is a driver that will affect the results in a significant number of seats.
If you bet at all, I'd advise you to do so accordingly. Tactical voting will be a hallmark of this election.
Ciao ciao. x
I'd have thought that for many of the 6 million who signed the petition staying in the EU trumps party loyalty.
Probably only 1-1.5 million live in marginals but it's still a lot of voters (up to 10,000 per seat). Do we know that they all voted tactically in 2017? That election wasn't quite seen as a last chance; this one is.
Just by pure coincidence bumped into the candidate I'm voting for this election. Didn't realise they were the candidate, was getting out of my car just as 2 people in blue rosettes with one carrying a clipboard and the other flyers were walking past. Had a brief chat and got handed the flyer and realised the person on the flyer was the one I was chatting too LOL. Seemed very friendly, hope they get elected.
I asked about the most notorious of the accusations against him, that he had honored a member of the Black September group who murdered the 1972 Israeli Olympic athletes: “Jeremy, how did it feel to lay down a wreath on behalf of a terrorist?”
This made him answer. But not to me as a person, or even as a Jewish voter. He went into rehearsed politician mode, with generalizations, sounding just like he does on the telly: “I denounce all forms of anti-Semitism and racism.” I just couldn’t believe these empty words. I told him that the failure under his leadership to stamp out anti-Semitism in his party implied that anti-Semitic behaviour is acceptable in the Labour Party. I told him he is at least partially responsible for a situation where Jewish people like me, part of a tiny minority, feel genuinely scared to live in this country.
Again, he said that no one should ever feel like that and that I should not believe “all the media hype.” Hype? Hype! I felt I’d been classified as “just another paranoid Jew” for asking about what one of his own Labour MPs had called “institutional antisemitism.” Just like he blamed us on the telly. What a way for the leader of the party that prides itself on its “anti-racist” values to behave.
If I wasn’t important enough for him to talk to on my own, maybe he’d come to my constituency. I invited him to come and talk in Borehamwood, the area with the fastest-growing Jewish population in Britain. He declined, and he didn’t seem to regret it. At least, he didn’t say so.
He put his head down to read his phone. He didn’t seem like a party leader in the middle of an election campaign, trying to convince a country to vote for him. He seemed like a quiet man happy to avoid talking to the people around him. I was bringing up a major topic in the biggest election campaign of his life and he seemed disinterested in discussing it with me or anyone around me. Quite apart from the serious problems of anti-Semitism, how could Corbyn lead us when he doesn’t even seem that interested in us?
I see you have come off your mountain in a better. albeit very resigned mood. I share your opinion, including the last word. Johnson is either a shrewd political operator or a lucky clown. No-one seems to be sure which. But it actually doesn't matter.
Yes, a bit of buddhism works wonders. Mix of luck and political skill, I suppose. But, no, like you say, it really doesn't matter. Upshot is, many years of him (and them). FWIW, my opinion is that the Benn Act was what dun it. What set this up on a plate. A terrible error. 'We' - the cognescenti - the forces of all that is good and right in this world - we should have made BoJo own that 'No Deal or Extension?' choice. It would have skewered him. Ah well.
Personally I blame the LDs and their daft election idea.
I agree with you too, and they're my team.
If we hadn't had an election where would we be? The democratic dam had to break.
I agree, but why hand it to Boris at that point? They could have agreed to one the first week back in January and leave Boris with the embarrassment of dealing with Jan 31st and spend Xmas encouraging Farage to split Boris's vote. Instead they set a trap for themselves and walked straight in to it because they suffered from a political disease called "Corbyn's Blindness" where the sufferer, in spite of all evidence, believes they are on to be a dead-cert winner!!!!! Idiots. If anything shows Jo Swinson is not ready for the big-time, that was it.
I think people forget (or have never appreciated) the situation changed once Johnson got a deal, the tory rebels were no longer going to ever bring down the govt, and would very probably have passed the WA in exchange for parliamentary scrutiny of the FTA. Brexit was happening.
If the LDs primary wish was to stop Brexit, they had to gamble an election.
I presume the pollsters have taken vote efficiency into consideration in these MRP models?
I think so, yes, although I'm not sure exactly how. The straw I'm clinging to is that somehow (i) the VI gap narrows to 7 or less and (ii) the anti-Con (and remainer) tactical voting is very determined and smart. Are you feeling determined and smart?
It is hard to know, because we could also see the opposite with the likes of Remain voters in your Guildford's of the world thinking s##t we can't risk Jezza and voting Tory, where as if it looked like a home run for the Tories of 100 majority (as I think was the case in the YouGov MRP model if it has been released 10 days ago) I think you would have found them voting Lib Dem. I think the bigger factor is if all these lifelong Labour Leave voters do stick with the Tories or go home, especially with "Honest Broker" Jezza act.
If Corbyn gets in, it will be as a minority govt, but I do not think he stands a chance. His campaign is dreadfully shambolic. Labour's only hope is the LDs fading from sight (as seems to be happening)
I actually think the Labour campaign has been decent if you don't care about the antisemitism (which clearly a lot of people don't) nor worry about the magic money tree (which again a lot of people don't). What they have done is have a new policy every day to catch the headlines. In comparison, the Tory and Lib Dem campaigns have been horrifically bad.
Are there TWO Labour campaigns? Given Corbyn's approach to things.....
I am no fan of Corbyn (as I think everybody on here knows), but he did fine in the head to head debate. Yes he crashed and burned vs Andrew Neil, but the audience was fairly small. He is a moron, who has no idea how unrealistic his manifesto actually is, but he has a well rehearsed script (he has been doing it for 40 years) and believe in it. Ignorance is bliss and all that. You have to look at it through the eyes of most people who only give these things a passing glance, and I think what they see is new stuff from Labour every day targeting different groups, so something for everybody.
I have been saying on here for years that nobody cares about facts or details - politics is really about perception. I regularly get pilloried for that
Can anyone explain why people are so optimistic on the Tories' chances in Scotland? The latest poll suggests the SNP lead over the Tories has increased to 18pp from 8pp in 2017. There are 9 Tory held Scottish seats where the Tories had a lead of less than 10pp in 2017. And yet, the YG MRP expects the SNP to take just 2 seats from the Tories, and based on SNP seat totals Electoral Calculus and the betting markets expect something similar. My model predicts 10 SNP gains from Con. What does everyone know that I don't?
Because there is no actual voter swing from Con to SNP. So the SNP only overtaken the Cons if the is Con to LD or Con to Lab swing.
Sorry I don't follow! SNP vote share is up, Tory vote share is down (Labour down even more, Lib Dems up). That surely helps the SNP to take seats off the Tories? My model seems to agree with the consensus in E&W but is way off in Scotland. I am very willing to believe I am wrong, but right now I can't see why I am wrong.
I agree, but why hand it to Boris at that point? They could have agreed to one the first week back in January and leave Boris with the embarrassment of dealing with Jan 31st and spend Xmas encouraging Farage to split Boris's vote. Instead they set a trap for themselves and walked straight in to it because they suffered from a political disease called "Corbyn's Blindness" where the sufferer, in spite of all evidence, believes they are on to be a dead-cert winner!!!!! Idiots. If anything shows Jo Swinson is not ready for the big-time, that was it.
Put simply, no. The polls were showing the prevarication and obstruction were only strengthening Johnson's position, not weakening it. The Tories were moving up inexorably in the polls each week the delay continued. Labour could also have blocked the GE and I suspect Swinson and Sturgeon thought if Labour were seen to be blocking a GE the Labour numbers would continue to fall. Johnson's position was being supported by the frustration of those just wanting the whole Brexit thing done with (and of course Revoking would have ended it though it wouldn't) and the perception the paralysis was caused by the MPs themselves. The election may be the opportunity to break the logjam but if it doesn't (and I suspect it won't), that's one less card Johnson has to play as he faces the 31/1/20 extension deadline. As for Jo Swinson claiming she could be PM, it's a much better rallying cry than "I'd like to win 30 seats".
Comments
Personally I think they’ve overcorrected. The results look a bit more believable now but I think they are slightly too conservative for the size of the majority on single figure leads.
Pretty much on the mark with Corbyn too, "The red man. He doesn't like the Jewish people and I don't agree with that"
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/general-election-latest-pensioner-sums-up-nations-mood-by-saying-she-wont-vote-for-the-red-man-who-doesnt-like-jewish-people-or-the-buffoon/ar-BBXrS5f?ocid=spartanntp
But he really was banned and hasn’t been back since!
He’s right, though.
A rule that ScottP could never live with, I would imagine
Yes, it’s very obvious.
Understandable, i guess. There are 8-9 extra LD seats in play that Swinson might be able to pick up off the back of that.
Once you get those stories it means a campaign is struggling
Well,the YouGov MRP has put a spring in some Conservative steps but i think all it does is show how open this election remains.
The YouGov poll on which the MRP forecast is based showed a 43-32 lead but ComRes last night had 41-34 and while that may not sound like much, a number of the projected Conservative gains are by a fingertip.
We are still two weeks from polling day - many people will not have engaged with the election at this time. I well remember in 2005 when I was working for a sitting LD MP and the canvass numbers two weeks out showed him losing by 2000 but he got back so there's an eternity for things to change.
IF (and it's a huge IF I accept), the Conservatives slip sub-40 and Labour move consistently above 35 this will becomes very tight. I Baxtered a 38-36-14 poll split and it all looks very messy.
As I have and will say, history is rarely symmetrical and those seeking to find order out of chaos usually end up disappointed.
Johnson has no allies if he comes up short - The DUP the the LDs will demand prices Johnson can't pay but the numbers would then be against his WA and we would be looking at crashing out of the EU on 31/1/20 although Parliament might have the votes to force Johnson to seek an extension at which point we will see if Johnson means what he says.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/28/revealed-tory-candidates-issued-with-attack-manuals-on-how-to-smear-rivals
One attack line highlights the “anti-Brexit” comments from a Liberal Democrat candidate’s blog – even though they were made two years before the referendum took place...
Shame about their being in bed with the welsh independents as I may have mentioned as being my main problem.
Perhaps its all a bit too grim up Narrfffh for the Maomentumers. Much easier to jump on the tube and campaign for an antisemite in Uxbridge.
There are a number of reasons why the LD campaign has struggled so far this time but I'll save the postmortem until well after 12/12.
Known as a “Wollaston” for short
It's more likely EC is wrong. Baxter is quite clear about his model breaking down if his assumptions are wrong - and YouGov highlighting genuine shifts in demographic voting patterns certainly qualifies.
Ryan Houghton (Con, Aberdeen North)
Waheed Rafiq (LD, B'ham Hodge Hill)
Safia Ali (Lab, Falkirk)
Flora Scarabello (Con, Glasgow Central)
Victor Farrell (Brexit Party, Glenrothe)
Ben Mathis (LD, Hackney North & Stoke Newington)
Amjad Bashir (Con, Leeds North East)
In addition to these, Sophie Cook (Independent in Worthing East & Shoreham) has decided to stand down herself, but she's also still on the ballot paper because the decision was made after nominations closed.
Providing the antisemitism attacks don't cause Corbyn further damage, I think it will a Hung Parliament.
Labour vote is firming up, especially in Leave areas.
On which subject, it was great to see Margaret Thatcher's brilliant climate change speech again posted on here last night.
I'm a pragmatist above all else. Otherwise known as a Remainer. And a tactical voter.
Ignore us in your betting stakes at your peril.
https://youtu.be/kzDnqVyiWT0?t=5
Is it the imminent triumph of the gruesome twosome (Boris & Brexit) that is getting to you? Fair enough if so. You are not alone.
Prediction: the 2020 US election is going to be an almighty sh!t show, with Google and Facebook in the middle of it. Whoever wins, those two companies are going to be in a lot of regulatory trouble.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=w5o-zqII6eQ
The name of a Conservative candidate is spelt wrong on the ballot paper - but it's his fault because it was spelt wrong on his nomination papers.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/election-2019-50582197
It was a lesson drilled into me by Jewish peoples in Israel.
So there!
Hitting the sweet spot is the tricky bit, and with the polling last time being so far out, is it right to take a chance on being positive?
btw. Interesting that they mention Bury South as a seat which is being ignored. A quick look at the Labour candidates feed shows groups of 100+ activists out campaigning, and various shadow cabinet members.
Without wishing to go all Godwin, it's how it all began. These are dangerous times.
Anyway, not one for now. Something to return to perhaps post-election when hopefully folk who are beating a partisan drum can take off their rosettes and begin thinking again.
To wit, I repeat how good it was to see Maggie's climate change speech posted up here.
She was a giant, regardless of one's take on her politics.
The MRP pays no attention to tactical voting. This is a HUGE error. For people like me for whom on this occasion remaining in the EU trumps party loyalty, this is a driver that will affect the results in a significant number of seats.
If you bet at all, I'd advise you to do so accordingly. Tactical voting will be a hallmark of this election.
Ciao ciao. x
Because some Jews told you so. Do you just hang out with Jews4Jezza?
He told me Labour had "hundreds" of activists and were covering all the key defences and a few Conservative seats they hoped to win. I heard they had 300 who had gone to Putney, Battersea, Hendon, Enfield North and others.
I asked about the more local seats and again this activist had claimed he "and dozens of activists" regularly went to Dagenham & Rainham and Ilford North.
There's a point about having too many activists but if it's not door knocking it's delivery or clerical work or just standing out in the High Street as a presence.
When I was an Agent back in the day I once had 20 come out with the candidate and we did a rolling canvass up and down four long roads in one evening - we still lost by 20,000.
Labour won't lose in London and the South for lack of resources but I sense the election is more defensive than offensive in terms of winning enough seats to gain a majority but taking and holding enough to deny Boris a majority.
That being said, if the polls indicated a closer result Labour are in a position to move resources quickly into potential new targets (I'm sure the Conservatives are as well).
In comparison, the Tory and Lib Dem campaigns have been horrifically bad.
Instead they set a trap for themselves and walked straight in to it because they suffered from a political disease called "Corbyn's Blindness" where the sufferer, in spite of all evidence, believes they are on to be a dead-cert winner!!!!!
Idiots.
If anything shows Jo Swinson is not ready for the big-time, that was it.
My starting point is why would anyone voting Cons or Labour in 2017 not vote for them in 2019. I know there is some churn but I think it just muddies the waters.
For Cons I think their minimum is 40% based on losing some who can't stand Boris. Their ceiling is probably the 43.5% TMay got. Only way this could go higher, in my eyes, is to add any people in from 2017 who didn't vote due to Dementia Tax but will do this time.
Labour is harder but I'm not sure that they are going to lose as much as the polls currently show. I don't think there will be much switching between now and 12/12 apart from the Greens going back down to 2017 levels and some Lab 2017 voters who pretended they were going to vote Lib Dem going back.
The main thing will be the DK's disproportionately voting Lab. Apart from previous non-voters ending up voting Lab in 2017, I think this was the main reason the polls closed the gap last time.
My gut feel is Con 41/42, Lab 36/37 but Lab are more likely to be higher than Con. I think the polls will show this and there won't be the errors on the day shown in 2015 or 2017.
Would love people to reassure me that I'm wrong as this is a potential nightmare!
Thanks all.
Hillsborough match commander David Duckenfield has been found not guilty of the gross negligence manslaughter of 95 Liverpool fans in the 1989 disaster.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-50592077
He is a moron, who has no idea how unrealistic his manifesto actually is, but he has a well rehearsed script (he has been doing it for 40 years) and believe in it. Ignorance is bliss and all that.
You have to look at it through the eyes of most people who only give these things a passing glance, and I think what they see is new stuff from Labour every day targeting different groups, so something for everybody.
Probably only 1-1.5 million live in marginals but it's still a lot of voters (up to 10,000 per seat). Do we know that they all voted tactically in 2017? That election wasn't quite seen as a last chance; this one is.
If he makes a speech backing the Tory line on the NHS then it will be a great positive for late waverers.
Seemed very friendly, hope they get elected.
This made him answer. But not to me as a person, or even as a Jewish voter. He went into rehearsed politician mode, with generalizations, sounding just like he does on the telly: “I denounce all forms of anti-Semitism and racism.” I just couldn’t believe these empty words. I told him that the failure under his leadership to stamp out anti-Semitism in his party implied that anti-Semitic behaviour is acceptable in the Labour Party. I told him he is at least partially responsible for a situation where Jewish people like me, part of a tiny minority, feel genuinely scared to live in this country.
Again, he said that no one should ever feel like that and that I should not believe “all the media hype.” Hype? Hype! I felt I’d been classified as “just another paranoid Jew” for asking about what one of his own Labour MPs had called “institutional antisemitism.” Just like he blamed us on the telly. What a way for the leader of the party that prides itself on its “anti-racist” values to behave.
If I wasn’t important enough for him to talk to on my own, maybe he’d come to my constituency. I invited him to come and talk in Borehamwood, the area with the fastest-growing Jewish population in Britain. He declined, and he didn’t seem to regret it. At least, he didn’t say so.
He put his head down to read his phone. He didn’t seem like a party leader in the middle of an election campaign, trying to convince a country to vote for him. He seemed like a quiet man happy to avoid talking to the people around him. I was bringing up a major topic in the biggest election campaign of his life and he seemed disinterested in discussing it with me or anyone around me. Quite apart from the serious problems of anti-Semitism, how could Corbyn lead us when he doesn’t even seem that interested in us?
https://forward.com/news/435583/anti-semitism-jeremy-corbyn/
Claiming they take out 4 billion in welfare ignoring the fact they actually pay more in taxes than they take out .
And they sit there saying they want to welcome migrants , when they’re attacking EU nationals in this way . Utterly despicable.
If the LDs primary wish was to stop Brexit, they had to gamble an election.
I have been saying on here for years that nobody cares about facts or details - politics is really about perception. I regularly get pilloried for that
My model seems to agree with the consensus in E&W but is way off in Scotland. I am very willing to believe I am wrong, but right now I can't see why I am wrong.
https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2019-50545673
The polls were showing the prevarication and obstruction were only strengthening Johnson's position, not weakening it. The Tories were moving up inexorably in the polls each week the delay continued.
Labour could also have blocked the GE and I suspect Swinson and Sturgeon thought if Labour were seen to be blocking a GE the Labour numbers would continue to fall.
Johnson's position was being supported by the frustration of those just wanting the whole Brexit thing done with (and of course Revoking would have ended it though it wouldn't) and the perception the paralysis was caused by the MPs themselves.
The election may be the opportunity to break the logjam but if it doesn't (and I suspect it won't), that's one less card Johnson has to play as he faces the 31/1/20 extension deadline.
As for Jo Swinson claiming she could be PM, it's a much better rallying cry than "I'd like to win 30 seats".
Neither Corbyn not Johnson are fit to be PM.