I'm assuming the discussion on Twitter about the Andrew Neil interview (7pm?) is the reason the Tories have tightened their Betfair prices over the last hour or so.
Probably an overreaction. It would have to be truly catastrophic to move the polls.
Liberal Party Election Broadcast being shown now on Scottish Television featuring individuals across England. That will go down like a bag of sick across Scotland. Even SLAB managed to have one featuring Richard Leonard. The SCons ones have featured SCon MPs and MSPs.
Interesting what you were saying about Jamie Stone being at risk in CSER due to strength of SCon with unionists. Thinking about it, Caithness looks a lot more like Moray and coastal Aberdeenshire than it does the Highlands, and look at what has happened there. I would still expect Jamie to win, but maybe Brexit will be a killer for him? Shock result - Tories take the seat from third?
I'm assuming the discussion on Twitter about the Andrew Neil interview (7pm?) is the reason the Tories have tightened their Betfair prices over the last hour or so.
Probably an overreaction. It would have to be truly catastrophic to move the polls.
Just shows how engaged the population are with specifics of the election. It also must call in to question the representativeness of polls if people really are not interested. You can take two views Tory landslide because ‘boris is cool’ or 55% turnout and who knows how it will fall
If only 6% recalled Brexit, it can’t be particularly meaningful.
Assuming your views are well formed on brexit etc then I think the poll message is that nothing has impacted on their views rather than recall of policy, the 2% for commie com implies it’s irrelevant in terms of their voting intention, having thought about it a bit more. The campaign isn’t cutting through and changing opinions.
"Maybe today’s focus on LAB’s antisemitism will help Berger. I have a small bet on her doing it."
I disagree. The more people worry about Labour, the more likely they will be to vote Tory, unless the Lib Dems are clear challengers, which they're not here.
I have to say, the threat of Corbyn is a factor in my thinking this election. Despite the fact that Johnson is an untrustworthy buffoon surrounded by the Tory right ministers and dangerous advisors, can I risk a Labour-led government with Corbyn and his shadow cabinet by voting for a non-Con option in a marginal where only Con and Lab can win? I'm not sure I can.
This is why I think the Tories will end up doing very well this time...
(The irony is that I think Jo Swinson and Luciana Berger and Ummama and co would never prop up a Corbyn government. The hatred - both ways - is just too strong.)
‘I want to hear why he would say such a thing...’ FFS Corbyn, my Year 11s come up with better lies about why they haven’t done their homework. What a dreadful start.
I'm assuming the discussion on Twitter about the Andrew Neil interview (7pm?) is the reason the Tories have tightened their Betfair prices over the last hour or so.
Probably an overreaction. It would have to be truly catastrophic to move the polls.
Here's hoping.....
Depends MarqueeMark, have you been naughty or nice this year?
I'm assuming the discussion on Twitter about the Andrew Neil interview (7pm?) is the reason the Tories have tightened their Betfair prices over the last hour or so.
Probably an overreaction. It would have to be truly catastrophic to move the polls.
If the clip on the BBC is as bad as it gets, I don't think that's catastrophic. He stayed very calm and on message. 'Politician refuses to apologise whilst claiming he's done nothing wrong' shocker! Now, if there's more that the BBC are keeping back, that could be a different matter. PS I am not voting Labour because of the piss-poor way they have handled anti-semitism in the party.
Liberal Party Election Broadcast being shown now on Scottish Television featuring individuals across England. That will go down like a bag of sick across Scotland. Even SLAB managed to have one featuring Richard Leonard. The SCons ones have featured SCon MPs and MSPs.
Interesting what you were saying about Jamie Stone being at risk in CSER due to strength of SCon with unionists. Thinking about it, Caithness looks a lot more like Moray and coastal Aberdeenshire than it does the Highlands, and look at what has happened there. I would still expect Jamie to win, but maybe Brexit will be a killer for him? Shock result - Tories take the seat from third?
I would love that but more likely his leader's stance on Revoke will cost cousin Jamie his seat to the SNP. Unless the Tories can beat him I hope he can hold on but that is for deeply personal reasons.
"Maybe today’s focus on LAB’s antisemitism will help Berger. I have a small bet on her doing it."
I disagree. The more people worry about Labour, the more likely they will be to vote Tory, unless the Lib Dems are clear challengers, which they're not here.
I have to say, the threat of Corbyn is a factor in my thinking this election. Despite the fact that Johnson is an untrustworthy buffoon surrounded by the Tory right ministers and dangerous advisors, can I risk a Labour-led government with Corbyn and his shadow cabinet by voting for a non-Con option in a marginal where only Con and Lab can win? I'm not sure I can.
This is why I think the Tories will end up doing very well this time...
(The irony is that I think Jo Swinson and Luciana Berger and Ummama and co would never prop up a Corbyn government. The hatred - both ways - is just too strong.)
The only way to be 100% sure Corbyn won't be PM on December 13th is for the Conservatives to win a majority.
Every vote for every other party increases the chances of Corbyn becoming PM.
This is the ABC election. Anyone but Corbyn. Unfortunately, that "anyone" has to be Boris.
I do like Andrew Neil, and he's miles in front of the competition - but it would be nice if there were some way to put the genie back in the bottle and make these things a little less adversarial - we shouldn't judge journalists by their ability to achieve a gotcha moment. Unfortunately politicians are now so banal when left to speak that this is probably better than the alternative.
Just shows how engaged the population are with specifics of the election. It also must call in to question the representativeness of polls if people really are not interested. You can take two views Tory landslide because ‘boris is cool’ or 55% turnout and who knows how it will fall
The meme of Johnson's lies is a strong theme, showing through. While Corbyn is feared by some he is thought to be sincere indeed he frightens Tories for precisely that reason!
Sorry @rcs1000, but I have known a few landslide elections in my time, but this one really doesn't feel like it on the ground. I have cashed out my spread bets.
Oh, I think a Johnson landslide will be a disaster for the country. I don't look forward to it, I just think it's going to happen.
There’s something Oedipal about your constant talking down of LD prospects!
I'm not talking them down.
I think they'll, objectively, do pretty well. I don't think they'll get squeezed down to the 10% mark, I think they'll end up almost doubling their vote share and getting about 15%. I also think they'll make a number of gains on the night and end up with roughly the same number of seats they had in the 1983 to 1992 period (i.e 18-23).
To get to that point within five years of being almost completely wiped out is a pretty good performance.
So far, Corbyn has kept calm. That’s the only positive. His performance is waffly and unconvincing. He’s now saying he doesn’t know his own party’s investigative processes.
Corbyn is stubborn and should really apologize but for all the joy this interview might be providing for Tory supporters Johnson still has to do this interview .
So far, Corbyn has kept calm. That’s the only positive. His performance is waffly and unconvincing. He’s now saying he doesn’t know his own party’s investigative processes.
Brillo has the receipts - specific examples, Corbyn's got nothing. This is even worse than I expected.
I think the ICM is an outlier, but it has shown the direction of travel. We need to be much less complacent in this race. We need to get out there and start asking who is going to pay for all of these policies that Labour are proposing.
So far, Corbyn has kept calm. That’s the only positive. His performance is waffly and unconvincing. He’s now saying he doesn’t know his own party’s investigative processes.
Corbyn is stubborn and should really apologize but for all the joy this interview might be providing for Tory supporters Johnson still has to do this interview .
And with luck he will be nailed on his own racism.
Liberal Party Election Broadcast being shown now on Scottish Television featuring individuals across England. That will go down like a bag of sick across Scotland. Even SLAB managed to have one featuring Richard Leonard. The SCons ones have featured SCon MPs and MSPs.
My surprise result is CON gain Hamilton E and Lanark as LAB tactically vote CON to get rid of SNP. Also maybe Perth and Perthshire N. And possibly Argyll & Bute but less LAB to squeeze there.
Possible not Ross Skye etc although we did win there 1979!
My shock of the night prediction is for the SCons to beat GE2017 in seats.
If they top 16 seats (three net gains) I make a nice sum with Laddys.
Perthshire, Edinburgh SW and East Lothian. Job done
Which Perthshire .
Perth and NP (wishartville)
Yes. And if they don't do it it won't be through want of trying. I know less about the Crieff side, but I guess they'll be pulling the stops out there too.
"Maybe today’s focus on LAB’s antisemitism will help Berger. I have a small bet on her doing it."
I disagree. The more people worry about Labour, the more likely they will be to vote Tory, unless the Lib Dems are clear challengers, which they're not here.
I have to say, the threat of Corbyn is a factor in my thinking this election. Despite the fact that Johnson is an untrustworthy buffoon surrounded by the Tory right ministers and dangerous advisors, can I risk a Labour-led government with Corbyn and his shadow cabinet by voting for a non-Con option in a marginal where only Con and Lab can win? I'm not sure I can.
This is why I think the Tories will end up doing very well this time...
(The irony is that I think Jo Swinson and Luciana Berger and Ummama and co would never prop up a Corbyn government. The hatred - both ways - is just too strong.)
The only way to be 100% sure Corbyn won't be PM on December 13th is for the Conservatives to win a majority.
Every vote for every other party increases the chances of Corbyn becoming PM.
This is the ABC election. Anyone but Corbyn. Unfortunately, that "anyone" has to be Boris.
And I think Johnson will be a poor Prime Minister. He will almost certainly face a recession and maybe a financial crisis in the next five years. And I suspect that his bluster and overconfidence and tendency to seek the easy way out will mean that he deals with it poorly. This does not bode well for the long term future of the Conservative Party.
"Maybe today’s focus on LAB’s antisemitism will help Berger. I have a small bet on her doing it."
I disagree. The more people worry about Labour, the more likely they will be to vote Tory, unless the Lib Dems are clear challengers, which they're not here.
I have to say, the threat of Corbyn is a factor in my thinking this election. Despite the fact that Johnson is an untrustworthy buffoon surrounded by the Tory right ministers and dangerous advisors, can I risk a Labour-led government with Corbyn and his shadow cabinet by voting for a non-Con option in a marginal where only Con and Lab can win? I'm not sure I can.
This is why I think the Tories will end up doing very well this time...
(The irony is that I think Jo Swinson and Luciana Berger and Ummama and co would never prop up a Corbyn government. The hatred - both ways - is just too strong.)
The only way to be 100% sure Corbyn won't be PM on December 13th is for the Conservatives to win a majority.
Every vote for every other party increases the chances of Corbyn becoming PM.
This is the ABC election. Anyone but Corbyn. Unfortunately, that "anyone" has to be Boris.
And I think Johnson will be a poor Prime Minister. He will almost certainly face a recession and maybe a financial crisis in the next five years. And I suspect that his bluster and overconfidence and tendency to seek the easy way out will mean that he deals with it poorly. This does not bode well for the long term future of the Conservative Party.
Nearly a quarter of the interview spent trying to explain he’s not a racist. (Very unconvincingly, I might add.) Now he’s on Brexit where he doesn’t have much more clue. So far, so dire. He desperately needs it to move onto something like student fees.
I think the ICM is an outlier, but it has shown the direction of travel. We need to be much less complacent in this race. We need to get out there and start asking who is going to pay for all of these policies that Labour are proposing.
There's a direction of travel for Labour, but the Tories are holding steady at 43% in the averages.
Liberal Party Election Broadcast being shown now on Scottish Television featuring individuals across England. That will go down like a bag of sick across Scotland. Even SLAB managed to have one featuring Richard Leonard. The SCons ones have featured SCon MPs and MSPs.
My surprise result is CON gain Hamilton E and Lanark as LAB tactically vote CON to get rid of SNP. Also maybe Perth and Perthshire N. And possibly Argyll & Bute but less LAB to squeeze there.
Possible not Ross Skye etc although we did win there 1979!
My shock of the night prediction is for the SCons to beat GE2017 in seats.
If they top 16 seats (three net gains) I make a nice sum with Laddys.
Perthshire, Edinburgh SW and East Lothian. Job done
Which Perthshire .
Perth and NP (wishartville)
Yes. And if they don't do it it won't be through want of trying. I know less about the Crieff side, but I guess they'll be pulling the stops out there too.
My take is that SCon will struggle more in seats which still have a substantial SLAB vote as the latter will break SNP. I think Ruth probably maxed out SLAB-SCon transfers last time. Best Tory prospects are indeed Perth & NP but also, I think, Argyll & Bute. The biggest town in the latter is Helensburgh which is dependent of Faslane for vast numbers of jobs. Sturgeon's demand that Corbyn scrap Trident in return for No10 will surely shift votes there.
I think the ICM is an outlier, but it has shown the direction of travel. We need to be much less complacent in this race. We need to get out there and start asking who is going to pay for all of these policies that Labour are proposing.
There's a direction of travel for Labour, but the Tories are holding steady at 43% in the averages.
Labour sub 200 seats 24% that’s all they deserve, Johnson deserves nothing better.
Now he’s saying it’s fine lower earners will be paying more tax, because it will improve public services. That is one hell of an admission - effectively admitting his manifesto is based on lie. It could be very damaging.
Now he’s saying it’s fine lower earners will be paying more tax, because it will improve public services. That is one hell of an admission - effectively admitting his manifesto is based on lie. It could be very damaging.
I pointed this out it in the QT debate. It was going to get him a kicking for lying.
Now he’s saying it’s fine lower earners will be paying more tax, because it will improve public services. That is one hell of an admission - effectively admitting his manifesto is based on lie. It could be very damaging.
Exactly, he's literally just smashed to pieces the argument that only the rich will fund the spending rises.
It seems such an obvious error the marriage tax allowance thing. I guess the manifesto has many authors and no one spotted that the social virtue signalling thoroughly screws them on tax.
New poll: Labour up 3, Tory lead down to 8, with Ashcroft, though the methodology is unusual: he downweights everyone by their lack of certainty to vote, so the total are less than 100: Con 36, Lab 28, LD 15, BXP 9 (asked only in seats where they're standing). Lots and lots of other data too, including the important one that 51% of LDs now say they'll vote Labour if Lab has a better chance (and 69% vice versa) - these figures are well up on previous polls. Survey done Nov 21-25.
What a contrast, calm, polite Corbyn and frantic, bulbous Neil.
I get the feeling that Neil has an inflated opinion of his own skills as an interviewer, almost a bullying style. He doesn't seem to be denting Corbyn at the moment.
What a contrast, calm, polite Corbyn and frantic, bulbous Neil.
I get the feeling that Neil has an inflated opinion of his own skills as an interviewer, almost a bullying style. He doesn't seem to be denting Corbyn at the moment.
What a contrast, calm, polite Corbyn and frantic, bulbous Neil.
I get the feeling that Neil has an inflated opinion of his own skills as an interviewer, almost a bullying style. He doesn't seem to be denting Corbyn at the moment.
What a contrast, calm, polite Corbyn and frantic, bulbous Neil.
I get the feeling that Neil has an inflated opinion of his own skills as an interviewer, almost a bullying style. He doesn't seem to be denting Corbyn at the moment.
Corbyn isn't calm. He is barely containing his petulance
What a contrast, calm, polite Corbyn and frantic, bulbous Neil.
I get the feeling that Neil has an inflated opinion of his own skills as an interviewer, almost a bullying style. He doesn't seem to be denting Corbyn at the moment.
What a contrast, calm, polite Corbyn and frantic, bulbous Neil.
I get the feeling that Neil has an inflated opinion of his own skills as an interviewer, almost a bullying style. He doesn't seem to be denting Corbyn at the moment.
Serious? Or posted for comedy value. Either way you don't appear to have had the line to take memo.
Comments
Protesteth too much
Statesmanlike
(The irony is that I think Jo Swinson and Luciana Berger and Ummama and co would never prop up a Corbyn government. The hatred - both ways - is just too strong.)
FFS Corbyn, my Year 11s come up with better lies about why they haven’t done their homework.
What a dreadful start.
'Politician refuses to apologise whilst claiming he's done nothing wrong' shocker!
Now, if there's more that the BBC are keeping back, that could be a different matter.
PS I am not voting Labour because of the piss-poor way they have handled anti-semitism in the party.
Every vote for every other party increases the chances of Corbyn becoming PM.
This is the ABC election. Anyone but Corbyn. Unfortunately, that "anyone" has to be Boris.
I think they'll, objectively, do pretty well. I don't think they'll get squeezed down to the 10% mark, I think they'll end up almost doubling their vote share and getting about 15%. I also think they'll make a number of gains on the night and end up with roughly the same number of seats they had in the 1983 to 1992 period (i.e 18-23).
To get to that point within five years of being almost completely wiped out is a pretty good performance.
https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/1199402069461000192
That’s the only positive.
His performance is waffly and unconvincing. He’s now saying he doesn’t know his own party’s investigative processes.
This is even worse than I expected.
Was the timing of the letter deliberate for blowing up this interview?
The "set piece" debates are more influential though...
It will be brutal.
Now he’s on Brexit where he doesn’t have much more clue.
So far, so dire. He desperately needs it to move onto something like student fees.
This is a defining moment.
The country has to see him beaten out of sight on the 12th December
Has there ever been a more disgraceful leader of the opposition
He is clueless and very dangerous
https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/11/would-you-vote-tactically-what-worries-you-most-about-a-tory-or-labour-government-what-would-actually-happen-under-johnson-or-corbyn-week-3-of-my-general-election-dashboard/
My god. Get rid of him and JMD now....
I get the feeling that Neil has an inflated opinion of his own skills as an interviewer, almost a bullying style. He doesn't seem to be denting Corbyn at the moment.
But interestingly Neil says he accepts the WASPI women have been unjustly treated.
Either way you don't appear to have had the line to take memo.