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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Majority opinion. Looking at the Conservatives’ chances from a

SystemSystem Posts: 12,170
edited November 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Majority opinion. Looking at the Conservatives’ chances from a different perspective

Average of 8 latest polls, taken 14-22 Nov (incl today's BMG, Opinium, Panelbase, YouGov):Con 43%Lab 29%Lib Dem 15%Brexit Party 4%Green 3% Projected Con majority 94 (All polls take account of Brexit Party standing down; Scotland projected from Panelbase & YouGov, 9-25 Oct)

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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,678
    Love the Westmorland tip.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,291
    Second like Jezza on 12/12/19
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    The biggest swing to the Tories in the country is in the North West so Westmoreland is not out of the question
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,570
    Mr Meeks, given the unfortunate timing of tonight's polls, would you have written anything different here if you had had knowledge of them before submitting the piece? Or do you not see anything to really change your view at present?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Your last 8 polls is a bit out of date Al
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951
    another_richard tipped the Conservatives to win Westmorland and Lonsdale on Nov 16th. I got on then at 4/1.

    I still expect to lose, because I think Farron will spend more time in his constituency this time around and also because I think if the Westminster result looks tight there may be enough tactical voters to get Farron over the line. However at 7/2 it's still great value.

  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    The assumption the Tories might lose 20 seats to the SNP and Lib Dem’s could be outdated as the yellows get squeezed and the fear of Corbyn increases amongst pro Europe Tories.
    8-10 losses to the Libs and 3-5 to the SNP is quite possible meaning 20 gains from Labour would get a majority.

    I’m not sure anyone could name more than 8-10 LD gains from Con that are greater than a 30% chance.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,112
    edited November 2019
    On waspi I am seeking the opinion of a conservative candidate currently defending his seat as to the party's official position. Will post further when and if I get a response

    Waspi has the potential for a ppi size boost to the economy and could be a game changer

    Maybe HYUFD could do the same if he reads this post
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Sturgeon v Andrew Neil, a warning for Corbyn and Johnson.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Waspi has the potential for a ppi size boost to the economy and could be a game changer

    What does that mean? PPI was a total disaster and is a deadweight on the economy.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    A danger for Labour, if a narrative of 'WASPI bung swings polls' takes hold there are a lot of demographics that will be pissed off they aren't getting 30 grand
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    dr_spyn said:

    Sturgeon v Andrew Neil, a warning for Corbyn and Johnson.

    She doing that badly?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    Something weird happening to Vanilla nesting comments. The typeface has gone grey.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Panorama tonight. "How to BrainWash 1million people"

    Must be about WASPI bribe

    Mind you "How to BrainWash 17.4million people" would be MSM and Tories
  • NorthCadbollNorthCadboll Posts: 332
    Nice tables Alastair. What I find is looking down that list, how many of those seats were Tory held going into the 1987 election, especially the Scottish seats.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    HaroldO said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Sturgeon v Andrew Neil, a warning for Corbyn and Johnson.

    She doing that badly?
    She isn't impressing. Haven't seen Sturgeon struggle quite so much before.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    wooliedyed said:

    A danger for Labour, if a narrative of 'WASPI bung swings polls' takes hold there are a lot of demographics that will be pissed off they aren't getting 30 grand

    A swing of 1% to Labour from the Tories from the last ICM and the Tories still on 41% is hardly any at all
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Mr Meeks, given the unfortunate timing of tonight's polls, would you have written anything different here if you had had knowledge of them before submitting the piece? Or do you not see anything to really change your view at present?

    I might have toned down the opening. The main part of the piece is in the tables. People can make of them what they will.
    bigjohnowls said:

    Your last 8 polls is a bit out of date Al

    Yes but I have only so many hours when I can put headers together. Ones like this one take a lot longer than think pieces.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,864
    At the moment I am thinking losses to the SNP and Lib Dems to be more like 10 than 20 and I am still expecting the best part of 50 gains from Labour giving the Tories a comfortable majority. But the ICM has made me a shade more twitchy, I don't deny it.
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    dr_spyn said:

    HaroldO said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Sturgeon v Andrew Neil, a warning for Corbyn and Johnson.

    She doing that badly?
    She isn't impressing. Haven't seen Sturgeon struggle quite so much before.
    Her actual record on education, health etc is quite poor and getting worse. Neil is hot on that.
    That said, look at Corbyn and Johnson and their records...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    ydoethur said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Waspi has the potential for a ppi size boost to the economy and could be a game changer

    What does that mean? PPI was a total disaster and is a deadweight on the economy.
    The compensation is a significant factor in keeping consumer spending up over the last few years.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    HaroldO said:


    That said, look at Corbyn and Johnson and their records...

    Do I have to? I’ve just eaten.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    HYUFD said:

    wooliedyed said:

    A danger for Labour, if a narrative of 'WASPI bung swings polls' takes hold there are a lot of demographics that will be pissed off they aren't getting 30 grand

    A swing of 1% to Labour from the Tories from the last ICM and the Tories still on 41% is hardly any at all
    Its not a 1% swing
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    ydoethur said:

    Something weird happening to Vanilla nesting comments. The typeface has gone grey.

    50 shades of grey.

    Vanilla is a ghost of its former self.
  • kjohnw1kjohnw1 Posts: 95
    Looks like labour don’t have a clue where they are going to get the £58billion from

    https://nam11.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https://order-order.com/2019/11/25/labour-spokesman-flounders-waspi-funding-questions/&data=02|01||252fcdcd51684658e88e08d771e09d54|84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa|1|0|637103081832859037&sdata=EC90WJNIJ0MZp4E0h/xLNWMKgBXVBZXI6ejCXovT+3o=&reserved=0
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,112
    #GE2019 Nowcast (25th Nov):

    CON: 347 (-10), 42.4% (-0.5)
    LAB: 214 (+15), 30.4% (+0.7)
    SNP: 45 (-5), 3.8% (-0.1)
    LDM: 20 (+1), 14.9% (+0.5)

    See the graphics for full results.
    Changes w/ 23 Nov.

    Polls from 19-25 November.
    Support me on https://t.co/8SlnLyh9g4 https://t.co/2mWWm4Xggz
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,770
    Oh God. Another Vanilla change.

    Me no like.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Mr Meeks, given the unfortunate timing of tonight's polls, would you have written anything different here if you had had knowledge of them before submitting the piece? Or do you not see anything to really change your view at present?

    I might have toned down the opening. The main part of the piece is in the tables. People can make of them what they will.
    bigjohnowls said:

    Your last 8 polls is a bit out of date Al

    Yes but I have only so many hours when I can put headers together. Ones like this one take a lot longer than think pieces.
    Not a criticism.

    Just think at long last there might be a bit of Lab momentum
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    edited November 2019
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Waspi has the potential for a ppi size boost to the economy and could be a game changer

    What does that mean? PPI was a total disaster and is a deadweight on the economy.
    The compensation is a significant factor in keeping consumer spending up over the last few years.
    Oh, sorry, I got muddled (it has been a very, very long and difficult day).
    I thought Big_G was referring to PFI.
    D’Oh!
    That said, a bunch of self-righteous misogynists being paid £58 billion from my taxes is almost as infuriating as being threatened with a £650 billion money printing campaign.
    @rcs1000 WTAF is wrong with Vanilla this time?!
  • StevenWhaleyStevenWhaley Posts: 54
    ydoethur said:

    Something weird happening to Vanilla nesting comments. The typeface has gone grey.

    A distinct improvement, IMHO, to creative an obvious visual difference between the quotes and the replies.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,112
    edited November 2019
    ydoethur said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Waspi has the potential for a ppi size boost to the economy and could be a game changer

    What does that mean? PPI was a total disaster and is a deadweight on the economy.
    58 billion bung over 5 years is a lot of money into consumption
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,112
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Waspi has the potential for a ppi size boost to the economy and could be a game changer

    What does that mean? PPI was a total disaster and is a deadweight on the economy.
    The compensation is a significant factor in keeping consumer spending up over the last few years.
    It has and on a similar scale
  • NorthCadbollNorthCadboll Posts: 332
    DavidL said:

    At the moment I am thinking losses to the SNP and Lib Dems to be more like 10 than 20 and I am still expecting the best part of 50 gains from Labour giving the Tories a comfortable majority. But the ICM has made me a shade more twitchy, I don't deny it.

    Calm down dear boy! Losses to the SNP? What about gains from them!!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    kjohnw1 said:

    Looks like labour don’t have a clue

    FTFY
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Something weird happening to Vanilla nesting comments. The typeface has gone grey.

    50 shades of grey.

    PB Tories acting as if tortured this PM
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    ydoethur said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Waspi has the potential for a ppi size boost to the economy and could be a game changer

    What does that mean? PPI was a total disaster and is a deadweight on the economy.
    Maybe people spending their PPI windfalls is all that is keeping us afloat?
  • kjohnw1kjohnw1 Posts: 95
    ydoethur said:

    kjohnw1 said:

    Looks like labour don’t have a clue

    FTFY
    Lol
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    bigjohnowls said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Something weird happening to Vanilla nesting comments. The typeface has gone grey.

    50 shades of grey.

    PB Tories acting as if tortured this PM
    I’m not a Tory, I’m an expert on Socialism and its consequences.
    That’s why I hate Labour.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,864
    NorthCadboll said:

    DavidL said:

    At the moment I am thinking losses to the SNP and Lib Dems to be more like 10 than 20 and I am still expecting the best part of 50 gains from Labour giving the Tories a comfortable majority. But the ICM has made me a shade more twitchy, I don't deny it.

    Calm down dear boy! Losses to the SNP? What about gains from them!!
    Don't see it. They are consolidating the ex-Labour vote.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    DavidL said:

    At the moment I am thinking losses to the SNP and Lib Dems to be more like 10 than 20 and I am still expecting the best part of 50 gains from Labour giving the Tories a comfortable majority. But the ICM has made me a shade more twitchy, I don't deny it.

    An Opinium will be along shortly Don't Panic
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    bigjohnowls said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Something weird happening to Vanilla nesting comments. The typeface has gone grey.

    50 shades of grey.

    PB Tories acting as if tortured this PM
    They seem to have forgotten the safe word...
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    #GE2019 Nowcast (25th Nov):

    CON: 347 (-10), 42.4% (-0.5)
    LAB: 214 (+15), 30.4% (+0.7)
    SNP: 45 (-5), 3.8% (-0.1)
    LDM: 20 (+1), 14.9% (+0.5)

    See the graphics for full results.
    Changes w/ 23 Nov.

    Polls from 19-25 November.
    Support me on https://t.co/8SlnLyh9g4 https://t.co/2mWWm4Xggz

    44 Maj.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,770
    StevenWhaley said:

    ydoethur said:

    Something weird happening to Vanilla nesting comments. The typeface has gone grey.

    A distinct improvement, IMHO, to creative an obvious visual difference between the quotes and the replies.
    Where is the 'dislike' button? :smile:
  • NorthCadbollNorthCadboll Posts: 332
    Nicola really shouldn't be boasting about the NHS in Scotland. The high profile Glasgow hospital built under her party's stewardship has been put under special methods and the Health Secretary having to defend her job owing to children dying due to infected ventilation and her own constituency is the centre of slave labour in Scotland.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Have the quotes changed, or am I having a stroke?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    ydoethur said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Waspi has the potential for a ppi size boost to the economy and could be a game changer

    What does that mean? PPI was a total disaster and is a deadweight on the economy.
    58 billion bung over 5 years is a lot of money into consumption
    ..
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,864
    edited November 2019
    bigjohnowls said:

    DavidL said:

    At the moment I am thinking losses to the SNP and Lib Dems to be more like 10 than 20 and I am still expecting the best part of 50 gains from Labour giving the Tories a comfortable majority. But the ICM has made me a shade more twitchy, I don't deny it.

    An Opinium will be along shortly Don't Panic
    I'm not panicking. This doesn't feel like 2017 to me. I feel the Tories are actually campaigning this time not hiding. I expect them to have a lead of about 12% on the night which will give them a 5% swing. That should be enough.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Waspi has the potential for a ppi size boost to the economy and could be a game changer

    What does that mean? PPI was a total disaster and is a deadweight on the economy.
    The compensation is a significant factor in keeping consumer spending up over the last few years.
    The same financial effect as another windfall tax on the banks and a free handout of £ to mainly low income people. Which would have had Tories screaming blue murder.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    RobD said:

    Have the quotes changed, or am I having a stroke?

    50 shades would say the latter.
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,660
    The policy of triple locked pensions for the last 9 years was simply never used to influence the cognitively declining minds of the UK's top heavy demographic. pensioner incomes are rising at 8.7% above the rate of inflation. This has came at the expense of the young.

    labour have crossed the line. they're now stepping on conservative turf by bribing the soon the be elderly and you lot don''t seem to like it!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    Great tip on Westmorland & Lonsdale, Alastair.

    My nose tells me Boris will be in no better a position on Friday 13th December (ha) than either May or Cameron, and that the roots of May's failings in the GE2017 campaign are far more strategic went much deeper than her robotic nature, or manifesto fubar.

    So, I think he'll just scrape a rather pathetic majority. And that'll be that.
  • BluerBlueBluerBlue Posts: 521
    It's times like these when I think of this (variously-attributed) quotation:

    A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover that they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse due to loose fiscal policy, which is always followed by a dictatorship.

    Fuck.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,770
    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1199029245525270528

    This could change the next Labour leader betting hugely n'est pas?
  • JBriskinindyref2JBriskinindyref2 Posts: 1,775
    Nippy confirming it s Scottish Groats for us poor souls in the north - wish us luck (or vote Boris)
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,112
    bigjohnowls said:

    DavidL said:

    At the moment I am thinking losses to the SNP and Lib Dems to be more like 10 than 20 and I am still expecting the best part of 50 gains from Labour giving the Tories a comfortable majority. But the ICM has made me a shade more twitchy, I don't deny it.

    An Opinium will be along shortly Don't Panic
    It will not be 19%
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    Btw, there's an official in the Palace of Westminster I know (ish) who is widely respected who thinks we'll be having general elections like this every 18-24 months for the next decade.

    Which I thought sounded like fun.

    Anyway, that's enough bedwetting for one evening. Supper beckons.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,770
    BluerBlue said:

    It's times like these when I think of this (variously-attributed) quotation:

    A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover that they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse due to loose fiscal policy, which is always followed by a dictatorship.

    Fuck.

    Free owls for all was the beginning of this.

    I blame Ed M.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    Casino_Royale said:

    Btw, there's an official in the Palace of Westminster I know (ish) who is widely respected who thinks we'll be having general elections like this every 18-24 months for the next decade.

    Which I thought sounded like fun.

    Anyway, that's enough bedwetting for one evening. Supper beckons.

    The Chartists get 100% in the end...
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    The last thing the twitchy blues need is an opinium poll out correcting its outlier of the weekend. Conniption will be epidemic!
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    On topic, we actually need a header that explains why ICM get 7 lead a day after Opinyums 19 before being strong on the seat spreads?

    Also, on the final paragraph, are rural areas still so keen on brexit knowing how it can change their way of life for the worst?
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Very useful seeing the seats of Tory targets sorted by odds. To me it seems like a lot of the West Midlands seats have the Tories shorter than expected, Coventry South, target number 104 being 4/6 for example. The bookies had Edgbaston as a 50/50 seat up until last week as well.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,678
    RobD said:

    Have the quotes changed, or am I having a stroke?

    Yes.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,228
    Brom said:

    The assumption the Tories might lose 20 seats to the SNP and Lib Dem’s could be outdated as the yellows get squeezed and the fear of Corbyn increases amongst pro Europe Tories.
    8-10 losses to the Libs and 3-5 to the SNP is quite possible meaning 20 gains from Labour would get a majority.

    I’m not sure anyone could name more than 8-10 LD gains from Con that are greater than a 30% chance.

    I think 4-5 LD gains from the Conservatives is more likely.

    And given the LDs could well lost North Norfolk, Eastbourne and Westmoreland, it could be closer to zero net.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    Have the quotes changed, or am I having a stroke?

    Yes.
    :open_mouth:
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,228
    ydoethur said:

    Something weird happening to Vanilla nesting comments. The typeface has gone grey.

    I think it looks pretty smart, personally.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,424
    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Something weird happening to Vanilla nesting comments. The typeface has gone grey.

    I think it looks pretty smart, personally.
    The paragraphing is a pain, but it’s a pain we can adjust to.
    The grey typeface is tough to see, and I speak as somebody with exceptionally good eyesight.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    rottenborough said:

    BluerBlue said:

    It's times like these when I think of this (variously-attributed) quotation:

    A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover that they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse due to loose fiscal policy, which is always followed by a dictatorship.

    Fuck.

    Free owls for all was the beginning of this.

    I blame Ed M.
    Blame Ed for what, losing after the battering took off Tory’s and the media?

    The free owl stuff that has blown U.K. politics to pieces began with the vote leave campaign in 2016. Ironic if it’s fruit is a Corbyn PM.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Casino_Royale said:

    Great tip on Westmorland & Lonsdale, Alastair.

    My nose tells me Boris will be in no better a position on Friday 13th December (ha) than either May or Cameron, and that the roots of May's failings in the GE2017 campaign are far more strategic went much deeper than her robotic nature, or manifesto fubar.

    So, I think he'll just scrape a rather pathetic majority. And that'll be that.

    If all he wants to do is brexit, than that's all he will get a majority for.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    I saw a few moments of Neil Vs Sturgeon - it was on leaving the EU vs leaving the UK

    Bloody hell he had her on the ropes
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,678
    edited November 2019
    So bloody proud of this, Lady Hale is going to stand up to the Chinese Government like she did with ours. Hurrah for our brilliant judiciary.
    Baroness Hale of Richmond, the president of the Supreme Court, will sit for a month in Hong Kong’s highest court as the former colony’s judiciary attempts to demonstrate its independence from Beijing.

    Lady Hale, who declared Boris Johnson’s prorogation of parliament illegal in September, will take a temporary seat on the bench of Hong Kong’s court of final appeal in the new year.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/baroness-hale-will-sit-as-judge-at-hong-kong-court-6kjkdch5r
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    edited November 2019
    Even before tonight the signs were Labour were ticking up in the polls. They are having yet another good campaign, Tories continue struggling to get cut-through on anything.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    I wonder how working class blokes will react electorally to middle class women getting a 30 grand bung?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    edited November 2019
    wooliedyed said:

    I wonder how working class blokes will react electorally to middle class women getting a 30 grand bung?

    Working Class women get it too so depends if they know any women born between 1950 and 1960.

    I think its a ridiculous policy TBF
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,678
    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1199052920215482374
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    bigjohnowls said:

    wooliedyed said:

    I wonder how working class blokes will react electorally to middle class women getting a 30 grand bung?

    Working Class women get it too
    Ones aged 65 to 69 yes, nobody else.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited November 2019
    wooliedyed said:

    I wonder how working class blokes will react electorally to middle class women getting a 30 grand bung?

    It is a bit of a treat for Theresa May herself.

    She is right at the peak of the WASPI bung, with her 1956 date of birth.

    She should bag the full 30k.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231
    Why the assumption that it's waspi wot done it for this poll surge for Labour?

    Why not the creeping realization amongst a growing section of the public that Johnson is a bit of a dick?
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    egg said:

    rottenborough said:

    BluerBlue said:

    It's times like these when I think of this (variously-attributed) quotation:

    A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover that they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse due to loose fiscal policy, which is always followed by a dictatorship.

    Fuck.

    Free owls for all was the beginning of this.

    I blame Ed M.
    Blame Ed for what, losing after the battering took off Tory’s and the media?

    The free owl stuff that has blown U.K. politics to pieces began with the vote leave campaign in 2016. Ironic if it’s fruit is a Corbyn PM.
    2016 had roots in 2014....
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    wooliedyed said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    wooliedyed said:

    I wonder how working class blokes will react electorally to middle class women getting a 30 grand bung?

    Working Class women get it too
    Ones aged 65 to 69 yes, nobody else.
    No thats not true put my wifes DOB in and she gets £15k she is only 58
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    KentRising said:

    Even before tonight the signs were Labour were ticking up in the polls. They are having yet another good campaign, Tories continue struggling to get cut-through on anything.

    Too early to suggest that after 1 poll. It looks like since the campaign started their vote is up 2-3%, the same amount as the Tories. In 2017 their vote was up 7-8% at this point. They certainly need a surge
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,112
    kinabalu said:

    Why the assumption that it's waspi wot done it for this poll surge for Labour?

    Why not the creeping realization amongst a growing section of the public that Johnson is a bit of a dick?

    The age group affected show a clear move to labour in the ICM poll but small sample size
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    kinabalu said:

    Why the assumption that it's waspi wot done it for this poll surge for Labour?

    Why not the creeping realization amongst a growing section of the public that Johnson is a bit of a dick?

    He's been a front line politician for over a decade, nothing new has come to light recently that could change anyones opinion of him.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    bigjohnowls said:

    DavidL said:

    At the moment I am thinking losses to the SNP and Lib Dems to be more like 10 than 20 and I am still expecting the best part of 50 gains from Labour giving the Tories a comfortable majority. But the ICM has made me a shade more twitchy, I don't deny it.

    An Opinium will be along shortly Don't Panic
    Is it the one poll causing the PB Tory nervous collapse though? Might it be the anticipated manifesto launch was such a squib it along with the Wasp buzz threw everything back into melting pot? Labour appear to be staggering the owls out the hat to maintain momentum and Tories don’t seem to be controlling the board and getting the right attention from the campaigns launch. It’s a bad campaign that keeps surrendering the board to opponents, it’s like they think the more their opponents speak the more the Tory majority grows, but that’s not how it works is it?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    bigjohnowls said:

    wooliedyed said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    wooliedyed said:

    I wonder how working class blokes will react electorally to middle class women getting a 30 grand bung?

    Working Class women get it too
    Ones aged 65 to 69 yes, nobody else.
    No thats not true put my wifes DOB in and she gets £15k she is only 58
    Why is she getting 15 grand?! She wasn't born in the 1950s! And she doesn't retire for another 8 years!!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    edited November 2019
    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Something weird happening to Vanilla nesting comments. The typeface has gone grey.

    I think it looks pretty smart, personally.
    The paragraphing is a pain, but it’s a pain we can adjust to.
    The grey typeface is tough to see, and I speak as somebody with exceptionally good eyesight.
    As well as the grey, the threads aren’t auto-collapsing any more - previous comments are all displayed in darker and darker shades of grey. A lot more scrolling for everyone, and some real dark backgrounds for OPs of longer threads.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Mr Meeks, given the unfortunate timing of tonight's polls, would you have written anything different here if you had had knowledge of them before submitting the piece? Or do you not see anything to really change your view at present?

    I might have toned down the opening. The main part of the piece is in the tables. People can make of them what they will.
    bigjohnowls said:

    Your last 8 polls is a bit out of date Al

    Yes but I have only so many hours when I can put headers together. Ones like this one take a lot longer than think pieces.
    I like the header. PBs header writers are having a great election.
    A poll of polls though, when they have such range could be misleading than accurate?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,570
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So bloody proud of this, Lady Hale is going to stand up to the Chinese Government like she did with ours. Hurrah for our brilliant judiciary.
    Baroness Hale of Richmond, the president of the Supreme Court, will sit for a month in Hong Kong’s highest court as the former colony’s judiciary attempts to demonstrate its independence from Beijing.

    Lady Hale, who declared Boris Johnson’s prorogation of parliament illegal in September, will take a temporary seat on the bench of Hong Kong’s court of final appeal in the new year.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/baroness-hale-will-sit-as-judge-at-hong-kong-court-6kjkdch5r

    I think comparing our Government to that of the Chinese is a new low even for someone as far into the gutter as you are Mr Eagles.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    bigjohnowls said:

    wooliedyed said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    wooliedyed said:

    I wonder how working class blokes will react electorally to middle class women getting a 30 grand bung?

    Working Class women get it too
    Ones aged 65 to 69 yes, nobody else.
    No thats not true put my wifes DOB in and she gets £15k she is only 58
    Not according to the BBC graphic.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/50546923

    The BBC graphic seems to imply that you get nothing unless you were born between April 1950 and April 1960.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    kinabalu said:

    Why the assumption that it's waspi wot done it for this poll surge for Labour?

    Why not the creeping realization amongst a growing section of the public that Johnson is a bit of a dick?

    There is no surge
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So bloody proud of this, Lady Hale is going to stand up to the Chinese Government like she did with ours. Hurrah for our brilliant judiciary.
    Baroness Hale of Richmond, the president of the Supreme Court, will sit for a month in Hong Kong’s highest court as the former colony’s judiciary attempts to demonstrate its independence from Beijing.

    Lady Hale, who declared Boris Johnson’s prorogation of parliament illegal in September, will take a temporary seat on the bench of Hong Kong’s court of final appeal in the new year.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/baroness-hale-will-sit-as-judge-at-hong-kong-court-6kjkdch5r

    I think comparing our Government to that of the Chinese is a new low even for someone as far into the gutter as you are Mr Eagles.
    TSE is a troll.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,560
    kyf_100 said:

    another_richard tipped the Conservatives to win Westmorland and Lonsdale on Nov 16th. I got on then at 4/1.

    I still expect to lose, because I think Farron will spend more time in his constituency this time around and also because I think if the Westminster result looks tight there may be enough tactical voters to get Farron over the line. However at 7/2 it's still great value.

    I feel sure that Farron will hang on in his Remainy constituency. It isn't like the rest of Cumbria.

  • MangoMango Posts: 1,019
    DavidL said:


    I'm not panicking. This doesn't feel like 2017 to me. I feel the Tories are actually campaigning this time not hiding. I expect them to have a lead of about 12% on the night which will give them a 5% swing. That should be enough.

    Enough for what? What are they going to do with such parliamentary riches? Aside from giving Putin his quick win, and embroiling us in a decade or two of unnecessary drag on the economy and on security, what in any of their actions suggests they have a clue about the problems facing the UK over the next 30 years?

    Genuine question, as you don't seem merely to be a supporter of Tory FC, but someone who actually wants governments to make life better.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,678
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So bloody proud of this, Lady Hale is going to stand up to the Chinese Government like she did with ours. Hurrah for our brilliant judiciary.
    Baroness Hale of Richmond, the president of the Supreme Court, will sit for a month in Hong Kong’s highest court as the former colony’s judiciary attempts to demonstrate its independence from Beijing.

    Lady Hale, who declared Boris Johnson’s prorogation of parliament illegal in September, will take a temporary seat on the bench of Hong Kong’s court of final appeal in the new year.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/baroness-hale-will-sit-as-judge-at-hong-kong-court-6kjkdch5r

    I think comparing our Government to that of the Chinese is a new low even for someone as far into the gutter as you are Mr Eagles.
    A shocking misreading of my post.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Casino_Royale said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So bloody proud of this, Lady Hale is going to stand up to the Chinese Government like she did with ours. Hurrah for our brilliant judiciary.
    Baroness Hale of Richmond, the president of the Supreme Court, will sit for a month in Hong Kong’s highest court as the former colony’s judiciary attempts to demonstrate its independence from Beijing.

    Lady Hale, who declared Boris Johnson’s prorogation of parliament illegal in September, will take a temporary seat on the bench of Hong Kong’s court of final appeal in the new year.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/baroness-hale-will-sit-as-judge-at-hong-kong-court-6kjkdch5r

    I think comparing our Government to that of the Chinese is a new low even for someone as far into the gutter as you are Mr Eagles.
    TSE is a troll.
    Worse than that he’s a plastic Liverpool fan!
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    edited November 2019
    Looks like one woman's Waspi is another mans Brexit. You surely can't buy a Hartlepudlian woman's vote for a mere £15000? What about sovereignty and the blue passport?
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652
    Which Commonwealth member's state broadcaster recently rebroadcast censored footage of the leader of the regime, removing the sound of people laughing at him over his famous pattern of fibs? If it helps, it's one of the funny little countries where the chief of the main family is also the head of their religion.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    kinabalu said:

    Why the assumption that it's waspi wot done it for this poll surge for Labour?

    Why not the creeping realization amongst a growing section of the public that Johnson is a bit of a dick?

    The age group affected show a clear move to labour in the ICM poll but small sample size
    About 40 people. Impossible to draw a conclusion from it
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720
    ydoethur said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Btw, there's an official in the Palace of Westminster I know (ish) who is widely respected who thinks we'll be having general elections like this every 18-24 months for the next decade.

    Which I thought sounded like fun.

    Anyway, that's enough bedwetting for one evening. Supper beckons.

    The Chartists get 100% in the end...
    Not quite, they wanted annual parliaments.

    Personally I would have 20% of seats contested every May over a 5 year cycle.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    ydoethur said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Waspi has the potential for a ppi size boost to the economy and could be a game changer

    What does that mean? PPI was a total disaster and is a deadweight on the economy.
    58 billion bung over 5 years is a lot of money into consumption
    Really? The money is either printed or coming from additional tax on working people and being given to a set of people who will be retiring early.

    Yes the WASPI may well be spending money but I suspect they will have (and spend) less money than they would have were they still working.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,880
    egg said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Mr Meeks, given the unfortunate timing of tonight's polls, would you have written anything different here if you had had knowledge of them before submitting the piece? Or do you not see anything to really change your view at present?

    I might have toned down the opening. The main part of the piece is in the tables. People can make of them what they will.
    bigjohnowls said:

    Your last 8 polls is a bit out of date Al

    Yes but I have only so many hours when I can put headers together. Ones like this one take a lot longer than think pieces.
    I like the header. PBs header writers are having a great election.
    A poll of polls though, when they have such range could be misleading than accurate?
    That's why it's always best to do an average:

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/1198699068953899008
This discussion has been closed.