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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Another man in his late ’70s puts his hat into the ring for WH
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Another man in his late ’70s puts his hat into the ring for WH2020
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Never the cool kid who's fashionably late.
And you're right, sometimes a policy will get such a push back, but I don't think this one will, for all I am very mad about it. To who will Labour inclined voters mad about it go? The LDs are offering the same thing in their manifesto, though I've not heard what the amount would be suggested to be, presumably the same. The Greens' plan is more focused on their Universal Basic Income idea with a focus on the WASPI women, but promises additional ways to compensate them as well. BXP promise to review the position of those women too.
So are young people who were going to turn out for Labour not going to turn out for them on this issue, when the Jezziah is busy saying what a moral duty it is?
BTW I see the LDs have gotten their audio version of the manifesto out, sadly not narrated by Jo Swinson herself. Only ones who have done this so far I think.
They all agreed that the age of the candidates is a real issue. They all despaired of it, and wanted change. Reps and Dems.
If this is a widespread feeling someone like Buttigieg has an in-built advantage.
"When Labour wins elections, it is the people and not the powerful who win"
Yes, when the Tories win elections the people do not win, even though they've voted for it. Corbyn knows the people don't want it even when they say they do, it's about his respect for the people.
So much is going wrong with America it’s easy to despair. But then you watch Rick and Morty and you think: a country that can make TV this sharp and funny might easily bounce back.
If you disagree than he can be laid at 5.5 at the moment.
Another stand out classic from the Marx playbook.
No good can come of it this close to bedtime.
All the Brexit talk from Boris is about how great the country is - but they're going to have to go after Labour with a "the country can't afford it" platform.
Labour can afford to be bold. Bang on about how the UK is the fifth biggest economy in the world*- to say we can't afford a great health service, or the best pensions is just talking this great country down.
*yes I know it's not per capita, but what opponent wants to argue a technical point, or say "we're not THAT great".
Non-politicians in America have needed some type of star quality to win the ultimate prize, either as a successful general (Washington, Eisenhower, Grant) or a celebrity (Trump and to some extent Reagan). I think Bloomberg, though a successful businessman, misses out on that X-factor.
Not that the conflation of the interests of the party with the interests of the country is a sin unique to Labour, but it is bloody silly.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7721023/Navy-Secretary-Richard-Spencer-resigns-private-proposal-Navy-SEAL-Edward-Gallaghers-case.html
https://twitter.com/KierinOfflands/status/1109831881233760256?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1109831881233760256&ref_url=https://disqus.com/embed/comments/?base=default&f=harrysplace&t_i=120959%20http%3A%2F%2Fhurryupharry.org%2F%3Fp%3D120959&t_u=http%3A%2F%2Fhurryupharry.org%2F2019%2F11%2F22%2Fno-free-lunch%2F&t_e=No%20free%20lunch&t_d=No%20free%20lunch%20%E2%80%93%20Harry%27s%20Place&t_t=No%20free%20lunch&s_o=default#version=a7c11c2c4a19752acf5a7bdea26a55d8
Britain is great - we should be able to afford the best pensions and a great health service.
If you want to stand up after a decade of austerity and say we still can't afford anything, please do, but the public seem to like a "yes we can" attitude
The public is literately laughing at your policies
Don't believe me, that's coming from your own focus groups.
Hillary got a lot of stick just for this.
How do you feel about the manifesto?
For @Big_G_NorthWales and others who do not bet or might like the process explained, it goes like this:
I went into the bookies and gave him £150. In turn he gave me a white slip with "Next Election: Conservatives Overall Majority 2/5" on it. Betfred is a fixed odds bookie (sometimes known as a "sportsbook" bookie). So the "2/5" means for every 5 I give him, he will give me 2 back if successful. So if Con does get an OM I will get £60 back (60=150*2/5) plus my original stake of £150. If Cons does not get an OM I will get nothing.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-50538592
The Tories could have been generous and still undercut Labour massively, but
their caution may just give Labour a simple positive argument (and let's face it, they need something big to go their way).
At the very least, however, his entry will provide him a means to push a party that he sees drifting dangerous leftward back to the pro-business centre.
I'm not sure, could give Sanders a boost..
Didn't he used to post here:
https://twitter.com/thomasknox/status/1198748966898278400?s=20
Saying Get Brexit Done is a much easier argument to make than "let's go back, have a chat with the EU, get another deal, have a referendum but we're not sure on what". That's the kind of thing that cuts through to the electorate.
Saying we've had austerity for ten years, we're back on track, and we can afford to spend a reasonable amount of money, is a neat argument, because it allows you to be positive while painting Labour as crazy spenders.
Saying we're a great country, we're back on track, but we're going to spend a fraction of 1% extra each year, isn't a great, positive argument.
I'm simply arguing that it looks timid, and gives Labour a chance to make a positive argument, using the Tories own "unleash the potential" rhetoric.
"they" being Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling, in concert with rest of the West.
Last time I checked these two neoliberal maniacs were senior members of the only three term Labour government in the party's history.
IIRC we were a couple of hours in advance of TV in realising what was happening.
….and of course, where they found the money: they borrowed it. Huge Himalayan-sized mounds of it. 150 billion a year deficit, that took a decade to get under control.
I had assumed the idea of this website was to discuss what issues might cause movement in the betting markets. I was suggesting that the Tories may have left the door open for Labour to claw back a little (and I mean "a little"), when a touch more generosity (which they've been trailing in terms of rhetoric for months), could have slammed that door shut.
Good luck living in the UK in those few weeks if that had been the case.
The issue for me is that having bailed out the mess, the banks have not been more firmly controlled/regulated/split apart etc etc.
India is ahead of Japan on PPP, which doesn't seem right to me.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)
As a VP to an elderly President, thougb, absolutely a spot on choice.
They weren't capable of doing anything on student debt even though the ONS has given them tens of billions to do so.
Corbyn tells people we're the sixth richest, so can afford a little extra.
Boris tells them that we're actually the sixth BIGGEST so have to keep our belts tight.
https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/1198758981071564800
My point was rather that his youth, in this field of wrinklies, gives him a better chance than he would otherwise have had.
Lamentably, for America and the world, I can see trump winning again.
I'd reply that most voters quite like a drink. If you've been promising to turn up to a party with a bottle of wine, and you actually arrive with a four pack of Diet Coke, you'll might just make the guy who brings a crate of champagne look even more appealing.
And forever.
https://www.hackneycitizen.co.uk/2019/11/24/hackney-north-lib-dem-candidate-dropped-clearly-offensive-tweets/
The ones I know of, in addition to this one, are the Tory candidate in Aberdeen North and the LD candidate in Birmingham Hodge Hill.
How to sell yourself to the public as their representative in parliament.
Stokes and Denly are England's best two for stickability.
So, I like Michael Bloomberg a lot. I think he was an excellent Mayor of NYC. He is a brilliant self made man, who still runs his financial media empire. He would probably be an excellent President.
But.
I think he's going to find it hard to get traction. Firstly, he's simply not that popular with rank-and-file Democrats. Secondly, skipping the early states is not that great a strategy.
In ten weeks time, there will be an Iowa winner. A week later, there will be a New Hampshire one. (And possibly they'll be the same person.) If the winner (or winners) of those Primaries are on the moderate side of the Democratic party (whether Buttigieg or Biden), then what's Mr Bloomberg's pitch? Pick me over the other moderate, 'cause...
Now it's quite possible that Sanders wins both Primaries, and Biden and Buttigieg are flailing (as are all the other moderates, like Harris, Klobuchar, Patrick and Booker)... in which case I guess we could see Bloomberg make a splash. But that's a pretty narrow window of opportunity. 6% chance? I'd say more like a 1% chance.