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  • eek said:

    Now we know Salmond is going to be the main news story today - is it likely that the General Election is going to be on the front page of any paper before I receive my postal vote? Supposedly I will receive it on Monday.

    All of the Sundays for the Tories? They tend not to go with news if they can be prebriefed and go to bed on time.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405

    When £85 is not "exactly" £500 but "slightly lower". A leader and cabinet in touch with real life budgets of workers and an attention for detail!

    From the BBC

    "Sajid Javid is quizzed on Boris Johnson's comments yesterday that the initial benefit of raising the threshold at which people start paying National Insurance contributions would "put £500 into the pockets of everybody".

    In fact, that's not the correct figure. The Conservatives' own press release says the benefit from raising the threshold to £9,500 in 2020-21 would be £100 per year. The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) says it would be £85 per year.

    So did Mr Johnson get his sums wrong or spin the figures?

    "I don't think there's any spinning going on, he's just given a straight answer," replies Mr Javid.

    But he gave the wrong answer, the presenter points out

    Mr Javid says: "We're setting out the detail today. The £500 figure is not exactly £500, it's something slightly lower than £500."

    That's ridiculous. The policy is to get it to £9,500 next year then to take it up to £12,500 as it becomes affordable - as was done with the Income Tax threshold rises. If it goes to £12,500 by the end of the next Parliament it will be close to £500 by the end of the next Parliament.
    That is not what the PM said, he thinks (thought) the initial cut is £500 per year.

    "In a separate interview with ITV News, Mr Johnson talked about the benefit from raising the threshold to £9,500 saying: "It's about £500 a year." The reporter challenged him saying: "That's not what you are guaranteeing. You are guaranteeing about £100 next year and there's an ambition for £500."

    But Mr Johnson was adamant: "You are not right there. We are going to £9,500 threshold initially and then the ambition is to get to the £12,500 threshold. But the initial cut that we are making does offer a £500 cut for every working person."

    Also someone pointed out it would be many many years before CPI took 9500-12500 unless we are going for hyperinflation post brexit.
    They aren't proposing CPI takes it from 9500 - 12500. Javid was quite clear the ambition was to get it to 12500 then have CPI lift it from there.
    But Johnson DID say it was £500 per year each year
    Johnson said the new starting point would be £12500 and that it was £500.

    There will be a lot of people who expect both those items immediately and will be very unhappy when they discover no difference in pay next April
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    Endillion said:

    Roger said:

    When £85 is not "exactly" £500 but "slightly lower". A leader and cabinet in touch with real life budgets of workers and an attention for detail!

    From the BBC

    "Sajid Javid is quizzed on Boris Johnson's comments yesterday that the initial benefit of raising the threshold at which people start paying National Insurance contributions would "put £500 into the pockets of everybody".

    In fact, that's not the correct figure. The Conservatives' own press release says the benefit from raising the threshold to £9,500 in 2020-21 would be £100 per year. The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) says it would be £85 per year.

    So did Mr Johnson get his sums wrong or spin the figures?

    "I don't think there's any spinning going on, he's just given a straight answer," replies Mr Javid.

    But he gave the wrong answer, the presenter points out

    Mr Javid says: "We're setting out the detail today. The £500 figure is not exactly £500, it's something slightly lower than £500."

    Charlie Kennedy was crucified for getting his sums wrong but we later learnt he had a drink problem. Johnson had no such excuse. he's just a bare-faced liar and everyone knows it. Is he worse han Trump? I wouldn't like to have to judge but the similarities don't end there.
    So, in 2017 the Labour manifesto promised to end future tuition fees, and made a vague commitment to look at what could be done with existing debt. Labour PPCs and campaigners went straight off to start telling students and recent graduates that a Labour government would cancel all debt ab initio. Subsequent to the election, they admitted this wasn't achievable.

    Is that better, worse, or about the same? What about if they try the same sort of trick this time round?
    A ridiculous comparison. Is it worse to say you'll end tuition fees then lose the election so you're unable to impliment it or to say you'll give every worker £500 which is a completely erronious figure?
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Pulpstar said:

    On the US race, this is still Biden's to lose. His biggest strength isn't momentum - it's that there is no one else in the "big 4" that is anywhere near on the black vote.

    I'd have this as :.

    Biden

    Gap

    Warren

    Fresh air

    Sanders
    Buttigieg

    30 furlongs

    Klobuchar/Harris

    No chance

    Yang/Bloomberg

    right now.

    I think the logic and ordering is right, but that the distances aren't as big - largely because all the Big 4 are so obviously flawed. I think Harris and Klobuchar are still in it, and still represent some value at 50-100/1.

    Any views on whether the black vote will start to drift towards Buttigieg if he wins Iowa and NH convincingly? Last time Clinton had it sewn up from the get-go, and Obama likewise in 08. I think 2000 was barely a contest in the end, so that doesn't help either.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405

    eek said:

    The descriptions of Salmonds offences are unbelievable including attempted rape in Bute house and offences in Stirling Castle, all when he was First Minister

    If the allegations prove to be true, it seems hard to believe that Nicola would not have been aware of his behaviour.
    I know it's an obvious statement but with 10 different accusers it's got to be highly unlikely that none of them are true.
    I agree. But due process and all that.
    I have no problem with due process and equally I understand why Salmond would plead innocent for all charges - I just think we can all see the end result here.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Roger said:

    Endillion said:

    Roger said:

    When £85 is not "exactly" £500 but "slightly lower". A leader and cabinet in touch with real life budgets of workers and an attention for detail!

    From the BBC

    "Sajid Javid is quizzed on Boris Johnson's comments yesterday that the initial benefit of raising the threshold at which people start paying National Insurance contributions would "put £500 into the pockets of everybody".

    In fact, that's not the correct figure. The Conservatives' own press release says the benefit from raising the threshold to £9,500 in 2020-21 would be £100 per year. The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) says it would be £85 per year.

    So did Mr Johnson get his sums wrong or spin the figures?

    "I don't think there's any spinning going on, he's just given a straight answer," replies Mr Javid.

    But he gave the wrong answer, the presenter points out

    Mr Javid says: "We're setting out the detail today. The £500 figure is not exactly £500, it's something slightly lower than £500."

    Charlie Kennedy was crucified for getting his sums wrong but we later learnt he had a drink problem. Johnson had no such excuse. he's just a bare-faced liar and everyone knows it. Is he worse han Trump? I wouldn't like to have to judge but the similarities don't end there.
    So, in 2017 the Labour manifesto promised to end future tuition fees, and made a vague commitment to look at what could be done with existing debt. Labour PPCs and campaigners went straight off to start telling students and recent graduates that a Labour government would cancel all debt ab initio. Subsequent to the election, they admitted this wasn't achievable.

    Is that better, worse, or about the same? What about if they try the same sort of trick this time round?
    A ridiculous comparison. Is it worse to say you'll end tuition fees then lose the election so you're unable to impliment it or to say you'll give every worker £500 which is a completely erronious figure?
    It was a lie. There's no other word for it - the manifesto did not commit to cancelling existing debt, but that's how it was presented to voters. You may choose to interpret that as unfortunate, but I have no doubt that it was deliberate and cynical.
  • Alex Salmond charged with offences against 10 different women.

    14 sexual charges altogether

    Wow.
    https://news.sky.com/story/alex-salmond-accused-of-laying-naked-on-woman-and-trying-to-rape-her-11866173
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627

    DavidL said:

    Alex Salmond charged with offences against 10 different women.

    14 sexual charges altogether

    In sex cases prosecutors talk of the power of 3. If you have 3 complainers alleging similar conduct then even if one of them proves to be a bit suspect juries convict. 10 ? Jeez.
    10 is also a lot of women to put through the ordeal of giving evidence against a powerful man with expensive lawyers. If Salmond knows he is guilty of at least some of these charges, pleading not guilty to them is a despicable thing to inflict.
    Something which, if he were to be convicted, the judge would take into account when sentencing.
  • When £85 is not "exactly" £500 but "slightly lower". A leader and cabinet in touch with real life budgets of workers and an attention for detail!

    From the BBC

    "Sajid Javid is quizzed on Boris Johnson's comments yesterday that the initial benefit of raising the threshold at which people start paying National Insurance contributions would "put £500 into the pockets of everybody".

    In fact, that's not the correct figure. The Conservatives' own press release says the benefit from raising the threshold to £9,500 in 2020-21 would be £100 per year. The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) says it would be £85 per year.

    So did Mr Johnson get his sums wrong or spin the figures?

    "I don't think there's any spinning going on, he's just given a straight answer," replies Mr Javid.

    But he gave the wrong answer, the presenter points out

    Mr Javid says: "We're setting out the detail today. The £500 figure is not exactly £500, it's something slightly lower than £500."

    That's ridiculous. The policy is to get it to £9,500 next year then to take it up to £12,500 as it becomes affordable - as was done with the Income Tax threshold rises. If it goes to £12,500 by the end of the next Parliament it will be close to £500 by the end of the next Parliament.
    That is not what the PM said, he thinks (thought) the initial cut is £500 per year.

    "In a separate interview with ITV News, Mr Johnson talked about the benefit from raising the threshold to £9,500 saying: "It's about £500 a year." The reporter challenged him saying: "That's not what you are guaranteeing. You are guaranteeing about £100 next year and there's an ambition for £500."

    But Mr Johnson was adamant: "You are not right there. We are going to £9,500 threshold initially and then the ambition is to get to the £12,500 threshold. But the initial cut that we are making does offer a £500 cut for every working person."

    Also someone pointed out it would be many many years before CPI took 9500-12500 unless we are going for hyperinflation post brexit.
    They aren't proposing CPI takes it from 9500 - 12500. Javid was quite clear the ambition was to get it to 12500 then have CPI lift it from there.
    But Johnson DID say it was £500 per year each year
    Which it would be approximately once the target of £12500 is hit.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,119
    edited November 2019
    eek said:

    Now we know Salmond is going to be the main news story today - is it likely that the General Election is going to be on the front page of any paper before I receive my postal vote? Supposedly I will receive it on Monday.

    It is possible that Andrew/Salmond will command the news headlines over the next few days other than Sky who seem possessed with labour

    And I should say, in response to your recent doubt I would ever vote labour, I twice voted for Blair and to some of my fellow conservatives I am not considered pure for those two elapses in my 76 years
  • eek said:

    Now we know Salmond is going to be the main news story today - is it likely that the General Election is going to be on the front page of any paper before I receive my postal vote? Supposedly I will receive it on Monday.

    Sunday papers will be dominated with briefings on the Tory manifesto.
    Monday papers will be dominated with the reaction to the Tory manifesto.

    When are postal votes arriving again?
  • Its getting a bit boring to hear teferences to compulsive lying. You should take it as read that any politician who moves their lips is being economical with the truth.

    That's not true. Skillful politicians put the best possible spin on reality and marshall the facts in order to support their arguments. Only rubbish politicians and compulsive liars tell complete untruths. It represents a coarsening of our politics and will lead to worse policies.
    My guess is that Johnson is completely innumerate. He did classics at Uni and then worked as a hack where he made up numbers. He is always very careless with anything quantitative which is a clear sign of innumeracy. Do we know what he got in his maths A level?
    Errr Tony Blair.. brilliant politician who lied whilst smiling
    I don't think Blair lied that much about anything. Maybe the Ecclestone thing? I believe that he genuinely thought there were WMD in Iraq (even though personally I was sceptical at the time and opposed the Iraq war). I would actually say that in terms of confronting the electorate with uncomfortable facts Blair was more straightforward than a lot of politicians.
    Well you would say that wouldn't you....
    I'm saying it because I think it's true, I don't really care if you think I am being partisan. It's also true of most politicians from all parties. I don't think Thatcher or Major were liars either, or Cameron for that matter. Obviously Cameron was lying when he said he wouldn't resign if Brexit won, but it was ok in my view because (a) he had to say that and (b) everyone knew he was lying anyway. Similarly when politicians say they are going to win an election when their internal polling tells them otherwise. These are just little lies that are a necessary part of the normal process, like telling your wife you like her hair cut.
    Johnson is a new and dangerous phenomenon in my view as he is a compulsive liar, he lies about everything and seems to have no understanding of reality. Moreover, it is an indication of a narcissistic personality. All of which points to him being a dangerous man to run the country.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    Sandpit said:

    The descriptions of Salmonds offences are unbelievable including attempted rape in Bute house and offences in Stirling Castle, all when he was First Minister

    Wow, wasn't expecting that. 10 different women.
    Even worse than Johnson promoting his girlfriend's business in his capacity as Mayor of London? Tough one.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614

    Alex Salmond charged with offences against 10 different women.

    14 sexual charges altogether

    Wow.
    https://news.sky.com/story/alex-salmond-accused-of-laying-naked-on-woman-and-trying-to-rape-her-11866173
    "Following the hearing, Salmond told waiting reporters that he has pleaded not guilty to all charges and that he had explained "some of the circumstances in which they've come about"."

    That has got to be some explanation, Alex.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627

    Alex Salmond charged with offences against 10 different women.

    14 sexual charges altogether

    Wow.
    https://news.sky.com/story/alex-salmond-accused-of-laying-naked-on-woman-and-trying-to-rape-her-11866173
    What the....

    "The attempted rape charges alleges that, inside Bute House, Mr Salmond repeatedly kissed a woman on the face and neck, repeatedly blocked her path, pinned her head against a wall, removed her clothing and underwear, pushed her onto a bed, knelt over her, pinned her to the bed by the shoulder, lay naked on top of her and attempted to rape her.

    "A sexual assault charge relating to December 2013 alleges that he caused a woman to sit on a bed, laid on top of her, made sexual remarks to her, touched her buttocks, thighs and breasts over her clothing with his hands, repeatedly kissed her face, struggled with her and pulled up her dress with intent to rape her."
  • eek said:

    They aren't proposing CPI takes it from 9500 - 12500. Javid was quite clear the ambition was to get it to 12500 then have CPI lift it from there.

    But Johnson DID say it was £500 per year each year
    Johnson said the new starting point would be £12500 and that it was £500.

    There will be a lot of people who expect both those items immediately and will be very unhappy when they discover no difference in pay next April
    Its typical to set out pledges with targets set for where we will be by the end of the next Parliament, not for the following April. And there would be a difference in pay next April since there's an immediate uplift in April.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614
    Roger said:

    Sandpit said:

    The descriptions of Salmonds offences are unbelievable including attempted rape in Bute house and offences in Stirling Castle, all when he was First Minister

    Wow, wasn't expecting that. 10 different women.
    Even worse than Johnson promoting his girlfriend's business in his capacity as Mayor of London? Tough one.
    If you can't see sexual coercion by the First Minister of a country up to attempted rape isn't equivalent to promoting your current shag's business, then you have some weird morals, Roger.
  • FPT:
    Cyclefree said:


    BTW off topic, I watched the first 2 episodes of the Crown. A bit disappointing. Very good production values but Olivia Coleman was disappointing and the script was incredibly clunky and unsubtle in places, with a very poor rip off of Alan Bennett in the Queen/Blunt scenes.

    It does pick up - and for those of us around at the time a useful reminder of Aberfan, the moon landing, miners strike & 3 day week. The cast is absolutely top drawer and as it broadens beyond Coleman (who seems to settle into the role as the series progresses) we see the lives of Charles & Margaret for example explored (two strong performances). I suspect considerable dramatic licence has been taken!

    Minor gripes - the queen and DoE watching television at breakfast in the 1960s - I'm pretty sure it didn't start until the early '80s - and everywhere they go is on a BOAC VC10 - even short hops to France.....
  • Roger said:

    Sandpit said:

    The descriptions of Salmonds offences are unbelievable including attempted rape in Bute house and offences in Stirling Castle, all when he was First Minister

    Wow, wasn't expecting that. 10 different women.
    Even worse than Johnson promoting his girlfriend's business in his capacity as Mayor of London? Tough one.
    For anyone who isn't a partisan rape is worse than that.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627
    Roger said:

    Sandpit said:

    The descriptions of Salmonds offences are unbelievable including attempted rape in Bute house and offences in Stirling Castle, all when he was First Minister

    Wow, wasn't expecting that. 10 different women.
    Even worse than Johnson promoting his girlfriend's business in his capacity as Mayor of London? Tough one.
    Err, what? Are two alleged violent sexual assaults worse than promoting your alleged girlfriend's business?
    Yes, a thousand times yes.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614
    South of the border we can only gawp open-mouthed at the allegations against Salmond, but how are they going to play in Scotland? Will it in any way impact on domestic Scottish politics in the election? What do our Scottish chums reckon? (Other than malcomg of course, who will probably fulminate that these women were all Tories/agents of the state..... )
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,769

    Roger said:

    Sandpit said:

    The descriptions of Salmonds offences are unbelievable including attempted rape in Bute house and offences in Stirling Castle, all when he was First Minister

    Wow, wasn't expecting that. 10 different women.
    Even worse than Johnson promoting his girlfriend's business in his capacity as Mayor of London? Tough one.
    For anyone who isn't a partisan rape is worse than that.
    Even for those who are partisans, surely. I'm very much against Johnson and (before this case) pretty much neutral towards Salmond, but what Salmond has been accused of is clearly worse, to me, than anything Johnson has been accused of.

    Was Roger just being sarcastic?
  • When £85 is not "exactly" £500 but "slightly lower". A leader and cabinet in touch with real life budgets of workers and an attention for detail!

    From the BBC

    "Sajid Javid is quizzed on Boris Johnson's comments yesterday that the initial benefit of raising the threshold at which people start paying National Insurance contributions would "put £500 into the pockets of everybody".

    In fact, that's not the correct figure. The Conservatives' own press release says the benefit from raising the threshold to £9,500 in 2020-21 would be £100 per year. The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) says it would be £85 per year.

    So did Mr Johnson get his sums wrong or spin the figures?

    "I don't think there's any spinning going on, he's just given a straight answer," replies Mr Javid.

    But he gave the wrong answer, the presenter points out

    Mr Javid says: "We're setting out the detail today. The £500 figure is not exactly £500, it's something slightly lower than £500."

    That's ridiculous. The policy is to get it to £9,500 next year then to take it up to £12,500 as it becomes affordable - as was done with the Income Tax threshold rises. If it goes to £12,500 by the end of the next Parliament it will be close to £500 by the end of the next Parliament.
    That is not what the PM said, he thinks (thought) the initial cut is £500 per year.

    "In a separate interview with ITV News, Mr Johnson talked about the benefit from raising the threshold to £9,500 saying: "It's about £500 a year." The reporter challenged him saying: "That's not what you are guaranteeing. You are guaranteeing about £100 next year and there's an ambition for £500."

    But Mr Johnson was adamant: "You are not right there. We are going to £9,500 threshold initially and then the ambition is to get to the £12,500 threshold. But the initial cut that we are making does offer a £500 cut for every working person."

    Also someone pointed out it would be many many years before CPI took 9500-12500 unless we are going for hyperinflation post brexit.
    They aren't proposing CPI takes it from 9500 - 12500. Javid was quite clear the ambition was to get it to 12500 then have CPI lift it from there.
    But Johnson DID say it was £500 per year each year
    Which it would be approximately once the target of £12500 is hit.
    Which isn't the "initial cut".

    You can correct Johnson's statement pretty easily, but he did get it wrong.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,838
    Roger said:

    Sandpit said:

    The descriptions of Salmonds offences are unbelievable including attempted rape in Bute house and offences in Stirling Castle, all when he was First Minister

    Wow, wasn't expecting that. 10 different women.
    Even worse than Johnson promoting his girlfriend's business in his capacity as Mayor of London? Tough one.
    Good luck with that particular line of whatabouterry, Roger! I'd say attempted rape would generally be seen as the worse offence, yes.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    eek said:

    Now we know Salmond is going to be the main news story today - is it likely that the General Election is going to be on the front page of any paper before I receive my postal vote? Supposedly I will receive it on Monday.

    I already have mine
  • FPT:

    Cyclefree said:


    BTW off topic, I watched the first 2 episodes of the Crown. A bit disappointing. Very good production values but Olivia Coleman was disappointing and the script was incredibly clunky and unsubtle in places, with a very poor rip off of Alan Bennett in the Queen/Blunt scenes.

    It does pick up - and for those of us around at the time a useful reminder of Aberfan, the moon landing, miners strike & 3 day week. The cast is absolutely top drawer and as it broadens beyond Coleman (who seems to settle into the role as the series progresses) we see the lives of Charles & Margaret for example explored (two strong performances). I suspect considerable dramatic licence has been taken!

    Minor gripes - the queen and DoE watching television at breakfast in the 1960s - I'm pretty sure it didn't start until the early '80s - and everywhere they go is on a BOAC VC10 - even short hops to France.....
    The casting is phenomenal - Derek Jacobi as the Duke of Windsor, Charles Dance as Mountbatten, and Jason Watkins as Harold Wilson are particular highlights.

    Michael Maloney does a good turn as Ted Heath, but I'm really looking forward to Thatch making an appearance in the next series.
  • FPT


    I also find it depressing that I can show a number of different emojis on this, but not the sub and super scripts required for expressing scientific terms correctly.

    @Fysics_Teacher are you on a PC?

    I can get all the maths stuff (and loads of other things) from the character map, in windows accessories

    eg 1×10⁹≠∞
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Does anyone have any insight about Scunthorpe constituency? Bookies have Tories slight favourites over Lab. BXP will be standing there.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    The Americans seem to love The Great British Bake Off
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Andy_JS said:

    "‘Data scientists’ are gradually replacing those grand ‘pollsters’ who used to offer confident insights with a neat turn of phrase. These new number nerds are likely to be under 30 and might well know nothing about politics. Instead of simple surveys and uniform national swings, they are using complex statistical models. For people whose bread and butter relies on being seen as a savvy political ‘expert’, all this amounts to an existential threat.

    The most powerful data modelling technique in politics at the moment, is something called MRP. It stands for “multilevel regression with post-stratification” — not exactly catchy — and the number of people who fully understand it in the UK can be counted on two hands."

    https://unherd.com/2019/11/unherd-britain-mapping-the-issues-that-matter/

    I would say "supplementing" rather than "replacing", or at least that's how it should ideally work. The trick is to get maximise insight by having those with subject matter expertise and the modellers working together and learning from the other side to get the best results.

    Also, single figures? I haven't looked into fully, but it seems pretty similar to the techniques that have been used to price personal lines insurance for a couple of decades now.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Roger said:

    Sandpit said:

    The descriptions of Salmonds offences are unbelievable including attempted rape in Bute house and offences in Stirling Castle, all when he was First Minister

    Wow, wasn't expecting that. 10 different women.
    Even worse than Johnson promoting his girlfriend's business in his capacity as Mayor of London? Tough one.
    Is it tough? Is it really?

    Good grief.
  • FPT


    I also find it depressing that I can show a number of different emojis on this, but not the sub and super scripts required for expressing scientific terms correctly.

    @Fysics_Teacher are you on a PC?

    I can get all the maths stuff (and loads of other things) from the character map, in windows accessories

    eg 1×10⁹≠∞
    I accidentally discovered it is possible to bring up a quick keyboard shortcut to emojis by pressing the Windows button + ;

    I know of no quick keyboard shortcut to mathematical characters.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    On Topic - Mayor Pete cannot win the primary. He is too dependent on white voters, is mostly making inroads amongst college educated white voters, and he doesn't have a monopoly on those voters. He may (although I doubt it) win Iowa and do well in NH, but after that he has nowhere to go. He does act as a spoiler to Warren, who I had as favourite to win as I think she is the left and Dem establishment "compromise" candidate, but she has had a few slips recently that suggest neither would be happy with her as a compromise: too short for Richard, too long for Dick.

    I still think Bernie has a chance of threading this needle. In the case of a contested convention, which new rules have made easier, it would look like Warren delegates would be more willing to go Bernie than Biden, and Bernie has surprising strong support amongst Hispanic voters, suggesting strong results in some southern states and California.

    Biden could squeak it, but he is not getting the money he needs, and his base of African American voters and working class whites could easily go to their second preferences if it looks like he is faltering (which mostly benefits Bernie). Atm Iowa and NH are 4 horse races; if Biden is the last horse he could lose the air of inevitability that might be shoring up his support (note that Hillary led amongst African American voters against Obama until he showed he could win in white states, then they shifted to him. Something similar could happen amongst a segment of the African American vote should Warren or Bernie come out strong).
  • FPT:

    Cyclefree said:


    BTW off topic, I watched the first 2 episodes of the Crown. A bit disappointing. Very good production values but Olivia Coleman was disappointing and the script was incredibly clunky and unsubtle in places, with a very poor rip off of Alan Bennett in the Queen/Blunt scenes.

    It does pick up - and for those of us around at the time a useful reminder of Aberfan, the moon landing, miners strike & 3 day week. The cast is absolutely top drawer and as it broadens beyond Coleman (who seems to settle into the role as the series progresses) we see the lives of Charles & Margaret for example explored (two strong performances). I suspect considerable dramatic licence has been taken!

    Minor gripes - the queen and DoE watching television at breakfast in the 1960s - I'm pretty sure it didn't start until the early '80s - and everywhere they go is on a BOAC VC10 - even short hops to France.....
    I suppose they could have been watching the 1961 solar eclipse:

    https://www.timeanddate.com/eclipse/solar/1961-february-15

    It was an early triumph of Eurovision to track it across the continent and feed it live to BBC-TV. How the mighty have fallen.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    Endillion said:

    Roger said:

    Sandpit said:

    The descriptions of Salmonds offences are unbelievable including attempted rape in Bute house and offences in Stirling Castle, all when he was First Minister

    Wow, wasn't expecting that. 10 different women.
    Even worse than Johnson promoting his girlfriend's business in his capacity as Mayor of London? Tough one.
    Is it tough? Is it really?

    Good grief.
    Screwing the ratepayers in a City of 8,000,000 people is pretty disgusting as well.
  • FPT


    I also find it depressing that I can show a number of different emojis on this, but not the sub and super scripts required for expressing scientific terms correctly.

    @Fysics_Teacher are you on a PC?

    I can get all the maths stuff (and loads of other things) from the character map, in windows accessories

    eg 1×10⁹≠∞
    I accidentally discovered it is possible to bring up a quick keyboard shortcut to emojis by pressing the Windows button + ;

    I know of no quick keyboard shortcut to mathematical characters.
    Do you not get an omega (Ω) symbol at the top of that emoji window? That opens up the maths symbols instead of the emojis
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614

    FPT


    I also find it depressing that I can show a number of different emojis on this, but not the sub and super scripts required for expressing scientific terms correctly.

    @Fysics_Teacher are you on a PC?

    I can get all the maths stuff (and loads of other things) from the character map, in windows accessories

    eg 1×10⁹≠∞
    I accidentally discovered it is possible to bring up a quick keyboard shortcut to emojis by pressing the Windows button + ;

    I know of no quick keyboard shortcut to mathematical characters.
    😍
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155

    South of the border we can only gawp open-mouthed at the allegations against Salmond, but how are they going to play in Scotland? Will it in any way impact on domestic Scottish politics in the election? What do our Scottish chums reckon? (Other than malcomg of course, who will probably fulminate that these women were all Tories/agents of the state..... )

    Hasn't Salmond been out of the party spotlight for a while? Sturgeon can probably say "I didn't know" (and I would probably believe her) and say the SNP is more than just one man. I doubt Labour could use this to their advantage, and whilst these accusations against Salmond are obviously degrees of magnitude worse than anything our PM has been accused of, Johnson is known as a womaniser and I can only assume the Tories wouldn't want to invite comparisons in case people do look at that issue closer.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    Is modelling replacing polling for what people look for to see who will win?
  • If @BorisJohnson wins this election, this could turn out to be the most striking image of the entire campaign. https://t.co/K9WGClYa0r
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Endillion said:

    Roger said:

    Sandpit said:

    The descriptions of Salmonds offences are unbelievable including attempted rape in Bute house and offences in Stirling Castle, all when he was First Minister

    Wow, wasn't expecting that. 10 different women.
    Even worse than Johnson promoting his girlfriend's business in his capacity as Mayor of London? Tough one.
    Is it tough? Is it really?

    Good grief.
    Roger probably ran it by his focus group of non political friends who were nonetheless glued to the debate.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    Is modelling replacing polling for what people look for to see who will win?
  • FPT


    I also find it depressing that I can show a number of different emojis on this, but not the sub and super scripts required for expressing scientific terms correctly.

    @Fysics_Teacher are you on a PC?

    I can get all the maths stuff (and loads of other things) from the character map, in windows accessories

    eg 1×10⁹≠∞
    I’m on an iPad.
  • Labour about to formally release their manifesto.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614

    FPT


    I also find it depressing that I can show a number of different emojis on this, but not the sub and super scripts required for expressing scientific terms correctly.

    @Fysics_Teacher are you on a PC?

    I can get all the maths stuff (and loads of other things) from the character map, in windows accessories

    eg 1×10⁹≠∞
    I accidentally discovered it is possible to bring up a quick keyboard shortcut to emojis by pressing the Windows button + ;

    I know of no quick keyboard shortcut to mathematical characters.
    Windows and + magnifies the screen.
  • 148grss said:

    South of the border we can only gawp open-mouthed at the allegations against Salmond, but how are they going to play in Scotland? Will it in any way impact on domestic Scottish politics in the election? What do our Scottish chums reckon? (Other than malcomg of course, who will probably fulminate that these women were all Tories/agents of the state..... )

    Hasn't Salmond been out of the party spotlight for a while? Sturgeon can probably say "I didn't know" (and I would probably believe her) and say the SNP is more than just one man. I doubt Labour could use this to their advantage, and whilst these accusations against Salmond are obviously degrees of magnitude worse than anything our PM has been accused of, Johnson is known as a womaniser and I can only assume the Tories wouldn't want to invite comparisons in case people do look at that issue closer.
    Sturgeon may well have to provide evidence in the Court
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Constituency poll by @Survation in Gt Grimsby (Melanie Onn, Lab) for @TheEconomist: Con lead by 13pts https://t.co/0Azi0MIp8N https://t.co/MX4zqLthBz

    Booo, melanie is cute as a button
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    If @BorisJohnson wins this election, this could turn out to be the most striking image of the entire campaign. https://t.co/K9WGClYa0r

    Miners love the Boz
  • Survation poll of Grimsby is interesting:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1197473139950796802
  • Weird pink background for Jezza.

    But they all seem very pleased with themselves.
  • FPT


    I also find it depressing that I can show a number of different emojis on this, but not the sub and super scripts required for expressing scientific terms correctly.

    @Fysics_Teacher are you on a PC?

    I can get all the maths stuff (and loads of other things) from the character map, in windows accessories

    eg 1×10⁹≠∞
    I accidentally discovered it is possible to bring up a quick keyboard shortcut to emojis by pressing the Windows button + ;

    I know of no quick keyboard shortcut to mathematical characters.
    Windows and + magnifies the screen.
    It's windows and semicolon
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    nunu2 said:

    Is modelling replacing polling for what people look for to see who will win?

    I can't see John Curtice on the catwalk.
  • FPT


    I also find it depressing that I can show a number of different emojis on this, but not the sub and super scripts required for expressing scientific terms correctly.

    @Fysics_Teacher are you on a PC?

    I can get all the maths stuff (and loads of other things) from the character map, in windows accessories

    eg 1×10⁹≠∞
    I’m on an iPad.
    I think you need to install a 3rd party keyboard, like the Chemistry Keyboard. With that one you hold down the numbers to get the super/sub script options for the number
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698

    Roger said:

    Sandpit said:

    The descriptions of Salmonds offences are unbelievable including attempted rape in Bute house and offences in Stirling Castle, all when he was First Minister

    Wow, wasn't expecting that. 10 different women.
    Even worse than Johnson promoting his girlfriend's business in his capacity as Mayor of London? Tough one.
    If you can't see sexual coercion by the First Minister of a country up to attempted rape isn't equivalent to promoting your current shag's business, then you have some weird morals, Roger.
    Both criminal offences if found guilty, but one will get big prison time whilst the other will be a slap on the wrist.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    Endillion said:

    Pulpstar said:

    On the US race, this is still Biden's to lose. His biggest strength isn't momentum - it's that there is no one else in the "big 4" that is anywhere near on the black vote.

    I'd have this as :.

    Biden

    Gap

    Warren

    Fresh air

    Sanders
    Buttigieg

    30 furlongs

    Klobuchar/Harris

    No chance

    Yang/Bloomberg

    right now.

    I think the logic and ordering is right, but that the distances aren't as big - largely because all the Big 4 are so obviously flawed. I think Harris and Klobuchar are still in it, and still represent some value at 50-100/1.

    Any views on whether the black vote will start to drift towards Buttigieg if he wins Iowa and NH convincingly? Last time Clinton had it sewn up from the get-go, and Obama likewise in 08. I think 2000 was barely a contest in the end, so that doesn't help either.
    It's hard to say (one also ought not assume 'the black vote' is monolithic), since Buttigieg is the first credible gay candidate to run for the presidency, so we have no data to go on.

    This is a good article:
    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2019/11/20/buttigieg-gay-electability-071369

    While the comparison is a far from direct one, it's worth noting these stats...
    ...go back to 2008, and look again at the poll numbers—in particular the ones about whether the country was ready to elect a black president. Back in 2000, it had been in the high 30s. In January of ‘08, at the beginning of primary voting, one poll put the number at 54 percent. But by that April, by the time Obama had won in Iowa and South Carolina and 13 states on Super Tuesday, another poll said the number of Americans ready to elect a black president was as high as 76 percent. One conclusion to draw from that: When public opinion shifts, it can shift quickly...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614

    148grss said:

    South of the border we can only gawp open-mouthed at the allegations against Salmond, but how are they going to play in Scotland? Will it in any way impact on domestic Scottish politics in the election? What do our Scottish chums reckon? (Other than malcomg of course, who will probably fulminate that these women were all Tories/agents of the state..... )

    Hasn't Salmond been out of the party spotlight for a while? Sturgeon can probably say "I didn't know" (and I would probably believe her) and say the SNP is more than just one man. I doubt Labour could use this to their advantage, and whilst these accusations against Salmond are obviously degrees of magnitude worse than anything our PM has been accused of, Johnson is known as a womaniser and I can only assume the Tories wouldn't want to invite comparisons in case people do look at that issue closer.
    Sturgeon may well have to provide evidence in the Court
    Hopefully not as one of his ten alleged victims?

    That would be - awkward.....
  • FPT


    I also find it depressing that I can show a number of different emojis on this, but not the sub and super scripts required for expressing scientific terms correctly.

    @Fysics_Teacher are you on a PC?

    I can get all the maths stuff (and loads of other things) from the character map, in windows accessories

    eg 1×10⁹≠∞
    I accidentally discovered it is possible to bring up a quick keyboard shortcut to emojis by pressing the Windows button + ;

    I know of no quick keyboard shortcut to mathematical characters.
    Do you not get an omega (Ω) symbol at the top of that emoji window? That opens up the maths symbols instead of the emojis
    Thanks! 🤦‍♂️
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627

    Survation poll of Grimsby is interesting:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1197473139950796802

    So Brexit Party standing there takes 18 points straight from Labour, which lets the Tories through the middle.

    How many more Northern seats are like that?
  • Survation poll of Grimsby is interesting:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1197473139950796802

    Labour Party to Brexit Party swing by those who will never vote Tory. Had BXP stood down I bet those BXP voters will have gone Labour.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    148grss said:



    .... these accusations against Salmond are obviously degrees of magnitude worse than anything our PM has been accused of, Johnson is known as a womaniser and I can only assume the Tories wouldn't want to invite comparisons in case people do look at that issue closer.

    There is a very, very big difference between "womanising" and "sexual assault".

    So, the suggestion that they "invite comparison" is seriously wide of the mark.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    philiph said:

    nunu2 said:

    Is modelling replacing polling for what people look for to see who will win?

    I can't see John Curtice on the catwalk.
    Lol
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,604
    Will the manifestos be available to buy in bookshops and newsagents like they always used to be? I used to enjoy wasting a few pounds on them once every four years.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    Sandpit said:

    Survation poll of Grimsby is interesting:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1197473139950796802

    So Brexit Party standing there takes 18 points straight from Labour, which lets the Tories through the middle.

    How many more Northern seats are like that?
    A ton, and north Wales
  • FPT


    I also find it depressing that I can show a number of different emojis on this, but not the sub and super scripts required for expressing scientific terms correctly.

    @Fysics_Teacher are you on a PC?

    I can get all the maths stuff (and loads of other things) from the character map, in windows accessories

    eg 1×10⁹≠∞
    I accidentally discovered it is possible to bring up a quick keyboard shortcut to emojis by pressing the Windows button + ;

    I know of no quick keyboard shortcut to mathematical characters.
    Windows and + magnifies the screen.
    Ooh that's nifty! Only other one I knew was Windows + Tab

    I wonder what other Windows+ keyboard shortcuts there are that I didn't know about?
  • Breaking: Jezza's going to renationalise everything.
  • Its getting a bit boring to hear teferences to compulsive lying. You should take it as read that any politician who moves their lips is being economical with the truth.

    That's not true. Skillful politicians put the best possible spin on reality and marshall the facts in order to support their arguments. Only rubbish politicians and compulsive liars tell complete untruths. It represents a coarsening of our politics and will lead to worse policies.
    My guess is that Johnson is completely innumerate. He did classics at Uni and then worked as a hack where he made up numbers. He is always very careless with anything quantitative which is a clear sign of innumeracy. Do we know what he got in his maths A level?
    Errr Tony Blair.. brilliant politician who lied whilst smiling
    I don't think Blair lied that much about anything. Maybe the Ecclestone thing? I believe that he genuinely thought there were WMD in Iraq (even though personally I was sceptical at the time and opposed the Iraq war). I would actually say that in terms of confronting the electorate with uncomfortable facts Blair was more straightforward than a lot of politicians.
    Well you would say that wouldn't you....
    On the question of Blair lying, you have to go with the Hutton Report which is the most detailed and reliable account. It absolved him from lying but indicated that he did everything but. It also confirmed what I think most had figured anyway - his motivation was a sycophantic desire to oblige the White House.

    The Ecclestone thing was a huge disappointment to his supporters, a severe reality check in those heady early days. Not sure I would call it a lie, but certainly dishonest and much less than was expected of him.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    148grss said:

    On Topic - Mayor Pete cannot win the primary. He is too dependent on white voters, is mostly making inroads amongst college educated white voters, and he doesn't have a monopoly on those voters. He may (although I doubt it) win Iowa and do well in NH, but after that he has nowhere to go...

    I don't buy this argument.
    If he were to win Iowa, all sorts of things are possible.

    Biden - assuming he stays in the race - will likely win S. Carolina, but perhaps not by the current massive margins.

    If Buttigieg can continue with the assured performances he's managed up until now, he could win this (though I acknowledge he is an outside bet).
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698

    148grss said:



    .... these accusations against Salmond are obviously degrees of magnitude worse than anything our PM has been accused of, Johnson is known as a womaniser and I can only assume the Tories wouldn't want to invite comparisons in case people do look at that issue closer.

    There is a very, very big difference between "womanising" and "sexual assault".

    So, the suggestion that they "invite comparison" is seriously wide of the mark.
    The more accurate comparison is between sexual assault and misconduct in public office (which is the Boris offence for promoting his friends business on the sly). Both are criminal offences, but the former is clearly much more serious.
  • FPT


    I also find it depressing that I can show a number of different emojis on this, but not the sub and super scripts required for expressing scientific terms correctly.

    @Fysics_Teacher are you on a PC?

    I can get all the maths stuff (and loads of other things) from the character map, in windows accessories

    eg 1×10⁹≠∞
    I accidentally discovered it is possible to bring up a quick keyboard shortcut to emojis by pressing the Windows button + ;

    I know of no quick keyboard shortcut to mathematical characters.
    Windows and + magnifies the screen.
    Ooh that's nifty! Only other one I knew was Windows + Tab

    I wonder what other Windows+ keyboard shortcuts there are that I didn't know about?
    Windows M is a useful one: minimalizes everything you have open.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited November 2019

    Its getting a bit boring to hear teferences to compulsive lying. You should take it as read that any politician who moves their lips is being economical with the truth.

    That's not true. Skillful politicians put the best possible spin on reality and marshall the facts in order to support their arguments. Only rubbish politicians and compulsive liars tell complete untruths. It represents a coarsening of our politics and will lead to worse policies.
    My guess is that Johnson is completely innumerate. He did classics at Uni and then worked as a hack where he made up numbers. He is always very careless with anything quantitative which is a clear sign of innumeracy. Do we know what he got in his maths A level?
    Errr Tony Blair.. brilliant politician who lied whilst smiling
    I don't think Blair lied that much about anything. Maybe the Ecclestone thing? I believe that he genuinely thought there were WMD in Iraq (even though personally I was sceptical at the time and opposed the Iraq war). I would actually say that in terms of confronting the electorate with uncomfortable facts Blair was more straightforward than a lot of politicians.
    Well you would say that wouldn't you....
    On the question of Blair lying, you have to go with the Hutton Report which is the most detailed and reliable account. It absolved him from lying but indicated that he did everything but. It also confirmed what I think most had figured anyway - his motivation was a sycophantic desire to oblige the White House.

    The Ecclestone thing was a huge disappointment to his supporters, a severe reality check in those heady early days. Not sure I would call it a lie, but certainly dishonest and much less than was expected of him.
    With the benefit of hindsight it is amazing he didn't fight harder to keep the Ecclestone money.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    nunu2 said:

    Is modelling replacing polling for what people look for to see who will win?

    Polls are models, unless you literally just phone people at random and then release the raw data. These are just more sophisticated polls/models. Which are not necessarily an improvement.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,769

    148grss said:

    South of the border we can only gawp open-mouthed at the allegations against Salmond, but how are they going to play in Scotland? Will it in any way impact on domestic Scottish politics in the election? What do our Scottish chums reckon? (Other than malcomg of course, who will probably fulminate that these women were all Tories/agents of the state..... )

    Hasn't Salmond been out of the party spotlight for a while? Sturgeon can probably say "I didn't know" (and I would probably believe her) and say the SNP is more than just one man. I doubt Labour could use this to their advantage, and whilst these accusations against Salmond are obviously degrees of magnitude worse than anything our PM has been accused of, Johnson is known as a womaniser and I can only assume the Tories wouldn't want to invite comparisons in case people do look at that issue closer.
    Sturgeon may well have to provide evidence in the Court
    That's the danger for SNP - if it turns out that (a) the allegations are true and (b) that she, knew (or had a good idea or should have known) then it rightly hurts her politically. If only (a) then SNP just disown him and I don't see it doing much damage.
  • FPT


    I also find it depressing that I can show a number of different emojis on this, but not the sub and super scripts required for expressing scientific terms correctly.

    @Fysics_Teacher are you on a PC?

    I can get all the maths stuff (and loads of other things) from the character map, in windows accessories

    eg 1×10⁹≠∞
    I accidentally discovered it is possible to bring up a quick keyboard shortcut to emojis by pressing the Windows button + ;

    I know of no quick keyboard shortcut to mathematical characters.
    Windows and + magnifies the screen.
    Ooh that's nifty! Only other one I knew was Windows + Tab

    I wonder what other Windows+ keyboard shortcuts there are that I didn't know about?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Windows_key

    Think I most often use windows and v for my clipboard history
  • Labour about to formally release their manifesto.

    is there anything left to reveal?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627

    FPT


    I also find it depressing that I can show a number of different emojis on this, but not the sub and super scripts required for expressing scientific terms correctly.

    @Fysics_Teacher are you on a PC?

    I can get all the maths stuff (and loads of other things) from the character map, in windows accessories

    eg 1×10⁹≠∞
    I accidentally discovered it is possible to bring up a quick keyboard shortcut to emojis by pressing the Windows button + ;

    I know of no quick keyboard shortcut to mathematical characters.
    Windows and + magnifies the screen.
    Ooh that's nifty! Only other one I knew was Windows + Tab

    I wonder what other Windows+ keyboard shortcuts there are that I didn't know about?
    Dozens of them!

    https://www.techrepublic.com/blog/windows-and-office/the-complete-list-of-windows-logo-keyboard-shortcuts/

    Windows + L is the one we should all use the most (if on a work PC).
  • FPT


    I also find it depressing that I can show a number of different emojis on this, but not the sub and super scripts required for expressing scientific terms correctly.

    @Fysics_Teacher are you on a PC?

    I can get all the maths stuff (and loads of other things) from the character map, in windows accessories

    eg 1×10⁹≠∞
    I accidentally discovered it is possible to bring up a quick keyboard shortcut to emojis by pressing the Windows button + ;

    I know of no quick keyboard shortcut to mathematical characters.
    Windows and + magnifies the screen.
    Ooh that's nifty! Only other one I knew was Windows + Tab

    I wonder what other Windows+ keyboard shortcuts there are that I didn't know about?
    Windows + D shows the desktop (i.e. minimises everything) and Windows + L locks your PC, to helpful in certain scenarios such as work accounts
  • alb1on said:

    148grss said:



    .... these accusations against Salmond are obviously degrees of magnitude worse than anything our PM has been accused of, Johnson is known as a womaniser and I can only assume the Tories wouldn't want to invite comparisons in case people do look at that issue closer.

    There is a very, very big difference between "womanising" and "sexual assault".

    So, the suggestion that they "invite comparison" is seriously wide of the mark.
    The more accurate comparison is between sexual assault and misconduct in public office (which is the Boris offence for promoting his friends business on the sly). Both are criminal offences, but the former is clearly much more serious.
    There's a certain similarity in that both involve using power to obtain personal gratification. Rape involves the additional nastiness of violent assault however. Even Johnson's worst enemies wouldn't accuse him of that.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Oil windfall tax and buggering up IHT are go go go
    Its over
  • Mob now shouting 'Not for Sale' at Jezza's launch.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,354
    edited November 2019
    philiph said:

    Its getting a bit boring to hear teferences to compulsive lying. You should take it as read that any politician who moves their lips is being economical with the truth.

    That's not true. Skillful politicians put the best possible spin on reality and marshall the facts in order to support their arguments. Only rubbish politicians and compulsive liars tell complete untruths. It represents a coarsening of our politics and will lead to worse policies.
    My guess is that Johnson is completely innumerate. He did classics at Uni and then worked as a hack where he made up numbers. He is always very careless with anything quantitative which is a clear sign of innumeracy. Do we know what he got in his maths A level?
    Errr Tony Blair.. brilliant politician who lied whilst smiling
    I don't think Blair lied that much about anything. Maybe the Ecclestone thing? I believe that he genuinely thought there were WMD in Iraq (even though personally I was sceptical at the time and opposed the Iraq war). I would actually say that in terms of confronting the electorate with uncomfortable facts Blair was more straightforward than a lot of politicians.
    Well you would say that wouldn't you....
    On the question of Blair lying, you have to go with the Hutton Report which is the most detailed and reliable account. It absolved him from lying but indicated that he did everything but. It also confirmed what I think most had figured anyway - his motivation was a sycophantic desire to oblige the White House.

    The Ecclestone thing was a huge disappointment to his supporters, a severe reality check in those heady early days. Not sure I would call it a lie, but certainly dishonest and much less than was expected of him.
    With the benefit of hindsight it is amazing he didn't fight harder to keep the Ecclestone money.
    According to Rawnesley (Servants Of The People) it was easily and readily replaced.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,604
    "Jeremy Corbyn launches Labour’s most leftwing manifesto in generation

    Policies include windfall levy on oil and gas groups that could raise more than £11bn"

    https://www.ft.com/content/067c164a-0c43-11ea-b2d6-9bf4d1957a67

    (Available via Google search to non-subscribers).
  • Labour manifesto: “We’ll ask those who earn more than £80,000 a year to pay a little more income tax, while freezing National Insurance and income tax rates for everyone else”.

    Fiscal drag. There’s the attack line for the Tories.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    Cookie said:

    Roger said:

    Sandpit said:

    The descriptions of Salmonds offences are unbelievable including attempted rape in Bute house and offences in Stirling Castle, all when he was First Minister

    Wow, wasn't expecting that. 10 different women.
    Even worse than Johnson promoting his girlfriend's business in his capacity as Mayor of London? Tough one.
    Good luck with that particular line of whatabouterry, Roger! I'd say attempted rape would generally be seen as the worse offence, yes.
    I'm surprised that no one sees anything odd about choosing yet another self obsessed Old Etonian ex Bullingdon Boy to be our PM. Doessn't it tell you anything about this country? Maybe we can work our way through the whole lot of them......


    https://uk.images.search.yahoo.com/yhs/search?p=bullingdon+photos&fr=yhs-domaindev-st_emea&hspart=domaindev&hsimp=yhs-st_emea&imgurl=http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/About/General/2009/10/2/1254521015825/The-Bullingdon-Club-001.jpg#id=2&iurl=http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/About/General/2009/10/2/1254521015825/The-Bullingdon-Club-001.jpg&action=click

  • On topic, Joe Biden seems to be like a supertanker whose engines have cut out. The momentum continues to carry him forward but sooner or later he's going to come to a standstill. The question is whether that is before or after the nomination process has been decided. Unlike others, it seems to me much more likely than not that the answer is "before" and well before.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Not for sale, but here's a random 5% wage increase to buy some votes
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614

    Survation poll of Grimsby is interesting:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1197473139950796802

    Woud love to see some constituency polling in Coventry or Hull......
  • Jezza talking about an "investment blitz".

    Cue tax bombshell adverts.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627

    Labour manifesto: “We’ll ask those who earn more than £80,000 a year to pay a little more income tax, while freezing National Insurance and income tax rates for everyone else”.

    Fiscal drag. There’s the attack line for the Tories.

    £80k a year will be round about the minimum wage, after five years of inflation under a Corbyn government.
  • One of the charges against Salmond is

    "Sexually assaulted a woman in a car in Edinburgh in February 2011 by touching her leg with his hand over her clothing"

    If that is sexual assault, then Boris is accused of sexually assaulting two women at the same time (I presume it doesn't have to happen in a car)
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Sandpit said:

    Survation poll of Grimsby is interesting:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1197473139950796802

    So Brexit Party standing there takes 18 points straight from Labour, which lets the Tories through the middle.

    How many more Northern seats are like that?
    and people said Nigel doesnt know what hes doing!

    But Grimsby is not atypical of Northern seats IMO. Labour more likely to struggle here IMO. But still...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,604
    The Brexit Party on 18% seemingly not damaging Tory prospects in this seat.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614
    "It's time for real change"

    Don't vote for Corbyn and McDonnell's manifesto and you'll get it - at the top of the Labour Party.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    kle4 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Cyclefree said:




    At the risk of repeating myself, let’s get some evidence about the harm involved and then work out how best to minimise it in the most effective way. That may result in the policies you advocate but I marvel at the ability of people - and this is not aimed at you personally - to come up with such policies on the basis of relatively little or no scientific, medical, legal, criminal or other relevant knowledge in this area.

    Not sure what your complaint is. If you are saying posters here are making it up as they go along - well, I certainly am, but we all have to get through life making decisions "on the basis of relatively little or no scientific, medical, legal, criminal or other relevant knowledge" because we can't all be experts at everything. This includes people like governments and MPs and judges. If you are saying there is insufficient research into cannabis out there, I am not sure what would satisfy you. There's tons. Governments are there to formulate and enact policies, not to set up Royal Commissions.
    Exactly. It's quite clear many asking for more info will never have enough, it's a very common delaying tactic. Theres been research and some places have legalised, if that research is wrong or the legalisation bad people need to say why, not hypocritically accuse others of leaping forward with little to no reasoning. Oh we need more info, no not that info.

    It goes both ways and theres a lot of gut feeling thinking on it, which is fine for us all as you note, but the hypocritical presentation is one side is about science of it and others are not. Thats bollocks.
    Please point to the evidence about the effect (short and long-term) of the powerful skunk being sold now on the brains of young teenagers and young adults, in particular in relation to the possible links with serious mental illness. I am unaware of it. Maybe there is some. But don’t you think it should be obtained and understood when deciding on whether to allow the legal sale of such a product.

    Such evidence usually takes time to obtain and understand. Saying it should be obtained is not a delaying tactic but, IMO, a necessary step any responsible government should take before making such a change.

    It seems to me that there is a lot of cherry-picking of studies and claims which support people’s preconceived opinions but a reluctance to look at stuff which might suggest that the answers are not quite as simple as some want to make out.

    Clearly our current drugs laws are not fit for purpose. So change is needed. What that change should be needs careful thought based on expert advice, facts and evidence, unfashionable as such a concept might be these days.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Roger said:

    Cookie said:

    Roger said:

    Sandpit said:

    The descriptions of Salmonds offences are unbelievable including attempted rape in Bute house and offences in Stirling Castle, all when he was First Minister

    Wow, wasn't expecting that. 10 different women.
    Even worse than Johnson promoting his girlfriend's business in his capacity as Mayor of London? Tough one.
    Good luck with that particular line of whatabouterry, Roger! I'd say attempted rape would generally be seen as the worse offence, yes.
    I'm surprised that no one sees anything odd about choosing yet another self obsessed Old Etonian ex Bullingdon Boy to be our PM. Doessn't it tell you anything about this country? Maybe we can work our way through the whole lot of them......


    https://uk.images.search.yahoo.com/yhs/search?p=bullingdon+photos&fr=yhs-domaindev-st_emea&hspart=domaindev&hsimp=yhs-st_emea&imgurl=http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/About/General/2009/10/2/1254521015825/The-Bullingdon-Club-001.jpg#id=2&iurl=http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/About/General/2009/10/2/1254521015825/The-Bullingdon-Club-001.jpg&action=click

    What do your focus group think about it all?
  • 148grss said:

    South of the border we can only gawp open-mouthed at the allegations against Salmond, but how are they going to play in Scotland? Will it in any way impact on domestic Scottish politics in the election? What do our Scottish chums reckon? (Other than malcomg of course, who will probably fulminate that these women were all Tories/agents of the state..... )

    Hasn't Salmond been out of the party spotlight for a while? Sturgeon can probably say "I didn't know" (and I would probably believe her) and say the SNP is more than just one man. I doubt Labour could use this to their advantage, and whilst these accusations against Salmond are obviously degrees of magnitude worse than anything our PM has been accused of, Johnson is known as a womaniser and I can only assume the Tories wouldn't want to invite comparisons in case people do look at that issue closer.
    Salmond resigned from the SNP last year so he's been out of the party as well as the party spotlight for a while.

    Sturgeon has played a pretty straight bat throughout in difficult circs. At the beginning of this imbroglio certain gleeful Unionists were trying to push the narrative that she'd betrayed her old friend & mentor and there was civil war in the SNP between her and Salmond's supporters; they're going to look a bit dumb if they now bellow complicity (won't stop them of course). I'd guess it being an ongoing case will prevent much use of it except by roasters on twitter.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683

    Labour manifesto: “We’ll ask those who earn more than £80,000 a year to pay a little more income tax, while freezing National Insurance and income tax rates for everyone else”.

    Fiscal drag. There’s the attack line for the Tories.

    No, they just need to find a head teacher and/or a GP who's on >£80k.
  • Selebian said:

    148grss said:

    South of the border we can only gawp open-mouthed at the allegations against Salmond, but how are they going to play in Scotland? Will it in any way impact on domestic Scottish politics in the election? What do our Scottish chums reckon? (Other than malcomg of course, who will probably fulminate that these women were all Tories/agents of the state..... )

    Hasn't Salmond been out of the party spotlight for a while? Sturgeon can probably say "I didn't know" (and I would probably believe her) and say the SNP is more than just one man. I doubt Labour could use this to their advantage, and whilst these accusations against Salmond are obviously degrees of magnitude worse than anything our PM has been accused of, Johnson is known as a womaniser and I can only assume the Tories wouldn't want to invite comparisons in case people do look at that issue closer.
    Sturgeon may well have to provide evidence in the Court
    That's the danger for SNP - if it turns out that (a) the allegations are true and (b) that she, knew (or had a good idea or should have known) then it rightly hurts her politically. If only (a) then SNP just disown him and I don't see it doing much damage.
    It is all about who knew what and when, who acted and didn't act. There's a scenario where NS will have to go, if it turns out she knew and failed to act.

    As for this election, we all knew the pre-trial was coming up, it has been covered extensively in the Scottish media - he's no longer a member of the SNP, so people can make up their own minds.

    Not to diminish these charges, they are horrific, but they will have no bearing on my vote. If he is guilty, he needs to face the full force of the law, and be sentenced accordingly.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Survation poll of Grimsby is interesting:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1197473139950796802

    Woud love to see some constituency polling in Coventry or Hull......
    UK elect had two of the hull seats falling
This discussion has been closed.