I’ve been having a think as to the lower Labour numbers and if I can tally up the on the ground experience.
I have been around a few constituencies over the weekend. In my own (Thornbury and Yate, Tory man 8000 over LD) there seems to be the usual split between LD placards in the towns and Tory placards on farmland. Not seen a single labour or green (stood down Remain all) and last time there were quite a few labour placards and they got 6000 votes. I think there is an outside chance of a Libdem victory.
I’ve also been round a bit of the Stroud constituency and saw 3 labour placards and 2 green. This seems well down on last time.
In Bristol NW much talked about yesterday there seemed to be little in the way of placards. In most cities you would think it would be clearly Tory - Stoke Bishop and Westbury on Trym are some of the nicest areas in Bristol both bordering on the Downs. Avonmouth, Shirehampton, Southmead and Lockleaze are working class areas, but much closer to North Bristol employment areas, and much more prosperous than the working class areas in East and South Bristol. Henleaze and Horfield are attractive suburbs with good links to City Centre. The thing for me that would trend this area Labour is the position in between the two Universities and near Southmead hospital but close to the Children’s hospital. You are likely to see a lot of their staff in this area. There are also Bristol Uni halls of residence in Stoke Bishop. It is only my impression but this area seemed to be heavily Labour placarded last time.
Placard count round near me, 1 Lee Rowley in Killamarsh. That's all I've seen so far.
No placards or posters here but two sets of Christmas lights.
This all assumes that the new Tory MPs are the "right sort" as viewed by OGH (and others).
Yup, which they won't be. They'll be exceedingly ERGey.
He should have written the headline the other way around: A 14% CON lead would give the ERG the margin to stuff Johnson.
I should think a thumping Con majority would allow Boris to choose direction for the government. He may choose the ERG path but he may not. Let's face it, he stands for nothing except being PM.
In the event of a battle, why would new MPs, with the promise of future ministerial limousines, wish to ties themselves to brexithardmansteve Baker and his crew?
Other than being "Not-Corbyn" I have no idea of what the tone of a Johnson Government will be. Going into a GE that is highly unusual.
Even though the "Get Brexit Done" slogan sounds decisive I really have no idea what he will do once it is obvious that a trade deal with the EU won't be complete by next summer. He appears to be opposed to both No Deal or extending the transition but he is going to have to do one or the other but we aren't going to know which before we vote.
It really could be anything from a liberal Cameroon type government or a right-wing ERG dominated one with Pritti Patel trying to reintroduce the death penalty.
Voting Tory is going to be like voting leave, a great leap of faith to believe you are going to get what you thought you were going to get.
I find it highly amusing when the usual people start going on about the Lib Dems being the tories little helpers when the real little helper is Corbyn leaving Johnson with no need to say anything except corbyn would be a disaster.
Exactly. Corbyn is by far the most effective campaigning tool Johnson has.
It wouldn’t surprise me if the Tories did a revision of the Ed Milliband in Alex Salmond’s pocket with Corbyn in his own pocket - Vote Labour get Corbyn!
On topic: It really is striking how the LibDems are failing to capitalise on what should be an ideal strategic scenario for them. Choosing Jo Swinson was a mistake, and it's really hurting them now.
I think the contradiction they're facing is that to maximize remainia prospects they essentially need to turn into the pro EU liberal conservative party (A direction Ed Davey hinted at the weekend with his promise to 'moderate' either party) but it would horrify their more left activist base and membership.
Maybe, contrary to expectations, it just turns out that this isn't the ideal opportunity for the LDs that many of us thought it was. Maybe there is too much fear of the 'wrong' outcome for people to feel able to vote for a third party. Maybe the ideal situation for the LDs was actually 2005 - disillusion with the main two parties but little outright terror of them.
That said, a few policies beyond overturning the result of the referendum might have helped.
The problem is that Swinson does not come across as a serious politician or a mature alternative to the other two parties. They have morphed into a single issue protest vote party - a Remain version of UKIP/BXP. So like UKIP/BXP they can do well in elections that aren't taken too seriously like the European elections but look like rank amateurs and wasted votes in the General Election.
Swinson got high off her own supply and believed her own hype about people wanting to Remain. She's no more serious than Nigel Farage will be about as successful as him as a result, just boosted by the legacy appeal of the Lib Dems.
On topic: It really is striking how the LibDems are failing to capitalise on what should be an ideal strategic scenario for them. Choosing Jo Swinson was a mistake, and it's really hurting them now.
I think the contradiction they're facing is that to maximize remainia prospects they essentially need to turn into the pro EU liberal conservative party (A direction Ed Davey hinted at the weekend with his promise to 'moderate' either party) but it would horrify their more left activist base and membership.
Maybe, contrary to expectations, it just turns out that this isn't the ideal opportunity for the LDs that many of us thought it was. Maybe there is too much fear of the 'wrong' outcome for people to feel able to vote for a third party. Maybe the ideal situation for the LDs was actually 2005 - disillusion with the main two parties but little outright terror of them.
That said, a few policies beyond overturning the result of the referendum might have helped.
I remember voting for Kennedy in 2005, no idea about his policies really at the time but he had charisma and charm in bags & Crosby's campaign put me right off that election.
First applause during Corbyn session here when audience member asks him to say why Labour is not 'for the many not the Jew' , confronting him on anti-semitism
First applause during Corbyn session here when audience member asks him to say why Labour is not 'for the many not the Jew' , confronting him on anti-semitism
On topic: It really is striking how the LibDems are failing to capitalise on what should be an ideal strategic scenario for them. Choosing Jo Swinson was a mistake, and it's really hurting them now.
I think the contradiction they're facing is that to maximize remainia prospects they essentially need to turn into the pro EU liberal conservative party (A direction Ed Davey hinted at the weekend with his promise to 'moderate' either party) but it would horrify their more left activist base and membership.
Maybe, contrary to expectations, it just turns out that this isn't the ideal opportunity for the LDs that many of us thought it was. Maybe there is too much fear of the 'wrong' outcome for people to feel able to vote for a third party. Maybe the ideal situation for the LDs was actually 2005 - disillusion with the main two parties but little outright terror of them.
That said, a few policies beyond overturning the result of the referendum might have helped.
I remember voting for Kennedy in 2005, no idea about his policies really at the time but he had charisma and charm in bags & Crosby's campaign put me right off that election.
On topic: It really is striking how the LibDems are failing to capitalise on what should be an ideal strategic scenario for them. Choosing Jo Swinson was a mistake, and it's really hurting them now.
Yes it seemed everything was setting up perfect for her . It seemed to me a mistake the revoke policy,in esscence saying she could override democracy.Not a good look for a Lib Dem.
First applause during Corbyn session here when audience member asks him to say why Labour is not 'for the many not the Jew' , confronting him on anti-semitism
I’ve been having a think as to the lower Labour numbers and if I can tally up the on the ground experience.
I have been around a few constituencies over the weekend. In my own (Thornbury and Yate, Tory man 8000 over LD) there seems to be the usual split between LD placards in the towns and Tory placards on farmland. Not seen a single labour or green (stood down Remain all) and last time there were quite a few labour placards and they got 6000 votes. I think there is an outside chance of a Libdem victory.
I’ve also been round a bit of the Stroud constituency and saw 3 labour placards and 2 green. This seems well down on last time.
In Bristol NW much talked about yesterday there seemed to be little in the way of placards. In most cities you would think it would be clearly Tory - Stoke Bishop and Westbury on Trym are some of the nicest areas in Bristol both bordering on the Downs. Avonmouth, Shirehampton, Southmead and Lockleaze are working class areas, but much closer to North Bristol employment areas, and much more prosperous than the working class areas in East and South Bristol. Henleaze and Horfield are attractive suburbs with good links to City Centre. The thing for me that would trend this area Labour is the position in between the two Universities and near Southmead hospital but close to the Children’s hospital. You are likely to see a lot of their staff in this area. There are also Bristol Uni halls of residence in Stoke Bishop. It is only my impression but this area seemed to be heavily Labour placarded last time.
Placard count round near me, 1 Lee Rowley in Killamarsh. That's all I've seen so far.
No placards or posters here but two sets of Christmas lights.
One large poster locally; a Tory voting farmer. Not a fruit-grower, so appears relaxed about no immigrant pickers.
On topic: It really is striking how the LibDems are failing to capitalise on what should be an ideal strategic scenario for them. Choosing Jo Swinson was a mistake, and it's really hurting them now.
I think the contradiction they're facing is that to maximize remainia prospects they essentially need to turn into the pro EU liberal conservative party (A direction Ed Davey hinted at the weekend with his promise to 'moderate' either party) but it would horrify their more left activist base and membership.
Maybe, contrary to expectations, it just turns out that this isn't the ideal opportunity for the LDs that many of us thought it was. Maybe there is too much fear of the 'wrong' outcome for people to feel able to vote for a third party. Maybe the ideal situation for the LDs was actually 2005 - disillusion with the main two parties but little outright terror of them.
That said, a few policies beyond overturning the result of the referendum might have helped.
I remember voting for Kennedy in 2005, no idea about his policies really at the time but he had charisma and charm in bags & Crosby's campaign put me right off that election.
So you weren't thinking what they were thinking?
The campaign was one of the creepiest I can remember ! The child like hand writing on those posters about immigration. Gee whizz.
Boom - Job done for Johnson from his CBI meeting this morning
General election 2019: PM puts corporation cuts on hold to help fund NHS
Seems like they are trying to hard to woo Labour voters, will upset some and the NHS pledge is pretty meaningless. Why announce such a policy at the CBI ffs??
If you are postponing a corporation tax cut the CBI is the best place to announce it
Why? The Tories promote themselves as pro Business, they announce cuts to Corp Tax which they signal as more to come post Brexit. What mixed message does that give out? Stop pandering to criticism- stick to a policy which is sound business sense. Like all politicians they are weak and this shows it.
First applause during Corbyn session here when audience member asks him to say why Labour is not 'for the many not the Jew' , confronting him on anti-semitism
First applause during Corbyn session here when audience member asks him to say why Labour is not 'for the many not the Jew' , confronting him on anti-semitism
On topic: It really is striking how the LibDems are failing to capitalise on what should be an ideal strategic scenario for them. Choosing Jo Swinson was a mistake, and it's really hurting them now.
Yes it seemed everything was setting up perfect for her . It seemed to me a mistake the revoke policy,in esscence saying she could override democracy.Not a good look for a Lib Dem.
It made clear they were obsessive extremists. Even Farage never backed exit without a referendum AFAIK.
She should have been building an alternative policy framework on everything else. Ask the average voter what the Lib Dem policy is on health, education, childcare, national defence, crime and justice etc, etc, etc and I think you'd struggle to get an answer. In fact in almost every answer on almost any topic they always seem to segway back into "and that is why we will remain in the EU".
I don't know how Swinson can claim with a straight face to be an alternative PM at the best of times but alternative PM's have policies on issues other than Brexit.
I am not sure Boris announcement will shift any vote the Tories way.
It just seems playing defence against Jezza screaming Tory tax cuts for the rich, but I am not sure those that are sympathetic to that line of attack will be placarded by Boris not cutting corporation tax by a further 2%. Jezza will still scream big evil corporations don't pay their fair share and Boris will say tax take is up after corporation tax cuts.
Tbh I think lots of people have given up caring what sort of Brexit we have, just need to get any sort of Brexit over the line now. There'll be a big national swing to soft Brexit once we're there I think as nearly all remainers and plenty of leavers will want to go in that direction.
Brexit fatigue rules OK? Yes and I think it's Johnson's biggest weapon in this election. Funnily enough, I think both the following are true. (i) The mood of the country is to Get Brexit Done. (ii) If Ref2 were held the country would choose to Remain.
On topic: It really is striking how the LibDems are failing to capitalise on what should be an ideal strategic scenario for them. Choosing Jo Swinson was a mistake, and it's really hurting them now.
Yes it seemed everything was setting up perfect for her . It seemed to me a mistake the revoke policy,in esscence saying she could override democracy.Not a good look for a Lib Dem.
At least she's proving they are not Literal Democrats.
Slackbladder said: "Corbs going down like a cup of cold sick I see..."
I hadn`t looked at Seat Total odds for a few days - but now checked and see that Tories are odds-on 1.82 with Betfair (4/5) to win 340 or more seats. Seems a touch skinny?
He's doing the same as Johnson. Offering himself and his policies to the electorate. He can't rationally be blamed for doing that. Several others are too and quite rightly. Our democracy depends on it. If a person votes for Johnson, as opposed to any of the alternatives, this is a choice being made. If enough of them do it the consequence - again quite rightly - will be a big Johnson majority. And the people who have made that choice will be wholly and directly responsible. This is how I look at it.
Well I agree with your first four sentences. What I meant was that the prospect of Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister is forcing people to vote Conservative. Because however bad a Conservative government might be, we expect the alternative to be worse. I don't blame Corbyn for offering his policies to the electorate. I just think he has a terrible set of ideas, he's an egregious politician and he'd be an unmitigated disaster. Thus, a vote in the Conservative column. I'm either responsible for a probably-crappy Conservative government or the certain disaster of Jeremy Corbyn as PM, and I choose the former. NOT that it makes the slightest bit of difference where I live.
Does anyone think there's any chance the High Court today will side with Swinson and Sturgeon regarding their being excluded from the debate tomorrow? Presumably this can't go before the Supreme Court tomorrow [if it even would go that far] so this is as far as it will go in the courts?
What I have seen suggests that the LibDem case is based on section 6.2 of the Ofcom Broadcasting Code which states that “due weight must be given to the coverage of parties and independent candidates during the election period” and another instruction in the code covering evidence of electoral support.
Assuming the broadcasters aren’t idiots and are giving the LibDems a right of reply in the “spin room” and on tv broadcasts, I’m not convinced any court is going to get into editorial decisions of which parties go in which programmes (e.g. having a Boris/Corbyn debate).
I am not a lawyer, but I spend a great deal of my time working with, through, and around regulations.
This all assumes that the new Tory MPs are the "right sort" as viewed by OGH (and others).
Yup, which they won't be. They'll be exceedingly ERGey.
He should have written the headline the other way around: A 14% CON lead would give the ERG the margin to stuff Johnson.
I should think a thumping Con majority would allow Boris to choose direction for the government. He may choose the ERG path but he may not. Let's face it, he stands for nothing except being PM.
In the event of a battle, why would new MPs, with the promise of future ministerial limousines, wish to ties themselves to brexithardmansteve Baker and his crew?
Other than being "Not-Corbyn" I have no idea of what the tone of a Johnson Government will be. Going into a GE that is highly unusual.
Even though the "Get Brexit Done" slogan sounds decisive I really have no idea what he will do once it is obvious that a trade deal with the EU won't be complete by next summer. He appears to be opposed to both No Deal or extending the transition but he is going to have to do one or the other but we aren't going to know which before we vote.
It really could be anything from a liberal Cameroon type government or a right-wing ERG dominated one with Pritti Patel trying to reintroduce the death penalty.
Voting Tory is going to be like voting leave, a great leap of faith to believe you are going to get what you thought you were going to get.
I find it highly amusing when the usual people start going on about the Lib Dems being the tories little helpers when the real little helper is Corbyn leaving Johnson with no need to say anything except corbyn would be a disaster.
When the history is written it will be clear that Corbyn was the enabler for Brexit and 5 more years of Tory majority government. You think they might have learned their lesson during the Foot years but as they say, those who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it and that is exactly what is happening.
Hopefully they will come to their senses a lot more quickly this time but I am not holding my breath. Labour's strategy is suicidal when we have a FPTP electoral system and the Tories will be laughing all the way to the polling stations. They can't believe their luck.
Does anyone think there's any chance the High Court today will side with Swinson and Sturgeon regarding their being excluded from the debate tomorrow? Presumably this can't go before the Supreme Court tomorrow [if it even would go that far] so this is as far as it will go in the courts?
What I have seen suggests that the LibDem case is based on section 6.2 of the Ofcom Broadcasting Code which states that “due weight must be given to the coverage of parties and independent candidates during the election period” and another instruction in the code covering evidence of electoral support.
Assuming the broadcasters aren’t idiots and are giving the LibDems a right of reply in the “spin room” and on tv broadcasts, I’m not convinced any court is going to get into editorial decisions of which parties go in which programmes (e.g. having a Boris/Corbyn debate).
I am not a lawyer, but I spend a great deal of my time working with, through, and around regulations.
Indeed I don't see how making a big deal of electoral requirement plays in their favour, ITVs lawyers can quite easily I'd think make a case of electoral support evidence to show the next PM must be either Corbyn or Johnson and that Swinson is not a serious proposal so doesn't need equal coverage.
Not sure losing that case will be good for the Lib Dems in future elections either.
On topic: It really is striking how the LibDems are failing to capitalise on what should be an ideal strategic scenario for them. Choosing Jo Swinson was a mistake, and it's really hurting them now.
I disagree. The Tories have done very well to frame this election as being a choice between Johnson and Corbyn - which, of course, it is. I don't think there is anything much any LD would have been able to do about that.
First applause during Corbyn session here when audience member asks him to say why Labour is not 'for the many not the Jew' , confronting him on anti-semitism
Corbs going down like a cup of cold sick I see...
I am shocked. A man who for 40 years has attacked the evils of capitalism and whose policies are going to include the state seizing currently profitable businesses isn't very popular with a room of capitalists.
It is clear the public have had enough of Brexit and want it resolved. "Get Brexit done" is a simple and powerful message.
Unilateral revocation and/or yet more referenda (alongside utter confusion on which side the Labour Party would fall) are proving unsurprisingly unappealing alternatives.
Trouble is, Getting Brexit Done will not get Brexit done because we'd still be negotiating in a transition period, and nor will it solve any of the political and economic problems of many Leave voters.
100% correct, which is why I agree with (I think) Stodge that the wheels will come off a Johnson win pretty darn quickly. By the summer of 2020, when we are forced to extend the transition period, people will realise they've been led down the garden path.
But really, its their fault for not understanding what 'done' means (ie, not done). Everyone on here knows the WA doesn't get Brexit done. It isn't hard to find out. Just people (voters) choose not to, but instead believe a three word lie (they did that back in 2016 so there is certainly precedent).
I find it highly amusing when the usual people start going on about the Lib Dems being the tories little helpers when the real little helper is Corbyn leaving Johnson with no need to say anything except corbyn would be a disaster.
Who I'll blame for a Boris Johnson majority will be the people who vote for him. There's nothing forcing them to do it.
That doesn't hold under our electoral system. I meet people on a daily basis who are not Tories but are voting for Johnson because they can't stand the thought of a Corbyn government and our system only gives the choice of one or the other.
The choice the Labour membership have made is herding people into the Tory camp whether you care to admit it or not.
Boris specifically allocates the cancellation of 6 billion corporation tax cut to the NHS on his speech to the CBI
It does undermine the Tories line a bit that corporation tax reductions more than pay for themselves with increased business activity / inward investment.
On topic: It really is striking how the LibDems are failing to capitalise on what should be an ideal strategic scenario for them. Choosing Jo Swinson was a mistake, and it's really hurting them now.
I disagree. The Tories have done very well to frame this election as being a choice between Johnson and Corbyn - which, of course, it is. I don't think there is anything much any LD would have been able to do about that.
She's had little air time. The LDs have indeed been squeezed out. This could change.
On topic: It really is striking how the LibDems are failing to capitalise on what should be an ideal strategic scenario for them. Choosing Jo Swinson was a mistake, and it's really hurting them now.
I disagree. The Tories have done very well to frame this election as being a choice between Johnson and Corbyn - which, of course, it is. I don't think there is anything much any LD would have been able to do about that.
She's had little air time. The LDs have indeed been squeezed out. This could change.
One of the problems for the Lib Dems it appears they are trying to run on a platform of realism. The mood of the middle class across the Western World is we ain't been getting richer for ages now and are kids futures won't be better than ours, what you going to do about it.
If it wasn't for get Brexit done and that fact they are facing Jezza, rather than say an Ed Miliband type, I think the Tories would also be in the absolute shit.
On topic: It really is striking how the LibDems are failing to capitalise on what should be an ideal strategic scenario for them. Choosing Jo Swinson was a mistake, and it's really hurting them now.
I disagree. The Tories have done very well to frame this election as being a choice between Johnson and Corbyn - which, of course, it is. I don't think there is anything much any LD would have been able to do about that.
She's had little air time. The LDs have indeed been squeezed out. This could change.
She's had air time every day.
Problem with being a one trick pony is that you ignore the message when you've heard it a thousand times before.
On topic: It really is striking how the LibDems are failing to capitalise on what should be an ideal strategic scenario for them. Choosing Jo Swinson was a mistake, and it's really hurting them now.
Yes..was at a dinner party Saturday night and subject got onto the inevitable..she is putting Women off according to the women there. They all laughed at the thought of her becoming PM.
On topic: It really is striking how the LibDems are failing to capitalise on what should be an ideal strategic scenario for them. Choosing Jo Swinson was a mistake, and it's really hurting them now.
I think the contradiction they're facing is that to maximize remainia prospects they essentially need to turn into the pro EU liberal conservative party (A direction Ed Davey hinted at the weekend with his promise to 'moderate' either party) but it would horrify their more left activist base and membership.
Boris specifically allocates the cancellation of 6 billion corporation tax cut to the NHS on his speech to the CBI
It does undermine the Tories line a bit that corporation tax reductions more than pay for themselves with increased business activity / inward investment.
On topic: It really is striking how the LibDems are failing to capitalise on what should be an ideal strategic scenario for them. Choosing Jo Swinson was a mistake, and it's really hurting them now.
I disagree. The Tories have done very well to frame this election as being a choice between Johnson and Corbyn - which, of course, it is. I don't think there is anything much any LD would have been able to do about that.
She's had little air time. The LDs have indeed been squeezed out. This could change.
She's had air time every day.
Problem with being a one trick pony is that you ignore the message when you've heard it a thousand times before.
Maybe I've been too preoccupied with the Prince Andrew and Jennifer Acuri stories to notice.
On topic: It really is striking how the LibDems are failing to capitalise on what should be an ideal strategic scenario for them. Choosing Jo Swinson was a mistake, and it's really hurting them now.
I disagree. The Tories have done very well to frame this election as being a choice between Johnson and Corbyn - which, of course, it is. I don't think there is anything much any LD would have been able to do about that.
Then, of course, the LibDems were completely wrong to go for a GE.
They should have agreed to VNOC Boris, put Corbyn in as PM, and left him to implement his proposal to renegotiate a deal and put it to a referendum.
The choice always was Brexit or Corbyn.
When it really came down to it, the LibDems preferred Brexit.
On topic: It really is striking how the LibDems are failing to capitalise on what should be an ideal strategic scenario for them. Choosing Jo Swinson was a mistake, and it's really hurting them now.
I disagree. The Tories have done very well to frame this election as being a choice between Johnson and Corbyn - which, of course, it is. I don't think there is anything much any LD would have been able to do about that.
She's had little air time. The LDs have indeed been squeezed out. This could change.
One of the problems for the Lib Dems it appears they are trying to run on a platform of realism. The mood of the middle class across the Western World is we ain't been getting richer for ages now and are kids futures won't be better than ours, what you going to do about it.
If it wasn't for get Brexit done and that fact they are facing Jezza, rather than say an Ed Miliband type, I think the Tories would also be in the absolute shit.
What is "realism" about the Lib Dems?
Is saying "Jo Swinson will be Prime Minister" realism? Is saying "revoke without a referendum" realism?
Is saying . . . ummm actually I can't think what else they've had to say.
On topic: It really is striking how the LibDems are failing to capitalise on what should be an ideal strategic scenario for them. Choosing Jo Swinson was a mistake, and it's really hurting them now.
Yes it seemed everything was setting up perfect for her . It seemed to me a mistake the revoke policy,in esscence saying she could override democracy.Not a good look for a Lib Dem.
I think this argument is plain nonsense.
It is obvious that revoke would only happen with a Lib Dem majority - and the electoral maths make it equally obvious that could only happen with a majority of the electorate changing its mind on Brexit. All the Lib Dems are saying is that they would facilitate that change of mind.
On topic: It really is striking how the LibDems are failing to capitalise on what should be an ideal strategic scenario for them. Choosing Jo Swinson was a mistake, and it's really hurting them now.
Yes..was at a dinner party Saturday night and subject got onto the inevitable..she is putting Women off according to the women there. They all laughed at the thought of her becoming PM.
Whereas the thought of Boris or Jeremy in No 10 fills them with glee, yes?
Boris's deferral of the CT cut is aimed at Lib Dems waiverers. The Lib Dem policy is to increase CT back to 20% to help fund public services like the NHS.
Boris specifically allocates the cancellation of 6 billion corporation tax cut to the NHS on his speech to the CBI
It does undermine the Tories line a bit that corporation tax reductions more than pay for themselves with increased business activity / inward investment.
You could argue that to be fair
Putting aside the not cutting 2% more of corporation tax. It is what worries me about the whole direction of travel in politics.
The argument of just how successful capitalism has been for the world is now been drowned out, because the Western middle class haven't got richer for 10 years. We are in danger of trashing a system that has improved the world, and is still improving the world, at an incredible rate. The Tories seem very unkeen to defend it, Labour have just gone full on hard left socialist economics, rather than New Labour slightly left economically, socially liberal / left.
That isn't to say we shouldn't be looking to adjust things e.g. the world tax system is clearly broken as it was really developed around physical good rather than IP / digital services.
On topic: It really is striking how the LibDems are failing to capitalise on what should be an ideal strategic scenario for them. Choosing Jo Swinson was a mistake, and it's really hurting them now.
They should have opened up the leadership election to all MPs, past or present. Choosing from the 8 survivors of the Coalition was never going to produce the leader they needed. I like Swinson but she is not going to do what Clegg would have done had he faced such an ideal scenario.
I still think they will get a second shot if Labour opts for another Corbynista as they should come out of this GE as the main opposition to the Tories in a couple of hundred seats and well positioned when the likely backlash against Johnson and Brexit kicks in.
Their prospects after December are now in Labour's hands though
On topic: It really is striking how the LibDems are failing to capitalise on what should be an ideal strategic scenario for them. Choosing Jo Swinson was a mistake, and it's really hurting them now.
I disagree. The Tories have done very well to frame this election as being a choice between Johnson and Corbyn - which, of course, it is. I don't think there is anything much any LD would have been able to do about that.
She's had little air time. The LDs have indeed been squeezed out. This could change.
She's had air time every day.
Problem with being a one trick pony is that you ignore the message when you've heard it a thousand times before.
Maybe I've been too preoccupied with the Prince Andrew and Jennifer Acuri stories to notice.
I need to upgrade my sources of information.
To be fair the Prince Andrew story is both newer news and more interesting and entertaining than hearing Swinson say for the 1684th time that we need to Remain in the EU.
The Prince Andrew lines about not sweating, being in Pizza Express and not knowing there's a bar in a nightclub are more entertaining and original lies than hearing a Lib Dem try and pretend that Jo Swinson could be our next Prime Minister for the 153rd time this campaign.
Boris specifically allocates the cancellation of 6 billion corporation tax cut to the NHS on his speech to the CBI
It does undermine the Tories line a bit that corporation tax reductions more than pay for themselves with increased business activity / inward investment.
Indeed. It’s undermining their own intellectual arguments on taxation.
On topic: It really is striking how the LibDems are failing to capitalise on what should be an ideal strategic scenario for them. Choosing Jo Swinson was a mistake, and it's really hurting them now.
I disagree. The Tories have done very well to frame this election as being a choice between Johnson and Corbyn - which, of course, it is. I don't think there is anything much any LD would have been able to do about that.
She's had little air time. The LDs have indeed been squeezed out. This could change.
One of the problems for the Lib Dems it appears they are trying to run on a platform of realism. The mood of the middle class across the Western World is we ain't been getting richer for ages now and are kids futures won't be better than ours, what you going to do about it.
If it wasn't for get Brexit done and that fact they are facing Jezza, rather than say an Ed Miliband type, I think the Tories would also be in the absolute shit.
What is "realism" about the Lib Dems?
Is saying "Jo Swinson will be Prime Minister" realism? Is saying "revoke without a referendum" realism?
Is saying . . . ummm actually I can't think what else they've had to say.
I mean on the economic size, re balanced budgets etc. I have said from the get-go I think the Lib Dem revoke policy is absolutely terrible.
I find it highly amusing when the usual people start going on about the Lib Dems being the tories little helpers when the real little helper is Corbyn leaving Johnson with no need to say anything except corbyn would be a disaster.
Who I'll blame for a Boris Johnson majority will be the people who vote for him. There's nothing forcing them to do it.
That doesn't hold under our electoral system. I meet people on a daily basis who are not Tories but are voting for Johnson because they can't stand the thought of a Corbyn government and our system only gives the choice of one or the other.
The choice the Labour membership have made is herding people into the Tory camp whether you care to admit it or not.
Yep - the LDs seem to be doing very well in London as they are seen there as a way to stop Corbyn. Elsewhere, it's the Tories who are benefiting.
On topic: It really is striking how the LibDems are failing to capitalise on what should be an ideal strategic scenario for them. Choosing Jo Swinson was a mistake, and it's really hurting them now.
I disagree. The Tories have done very well to frame this election as being a choice between Johnson and Corbyn - which, of course, it is. I don't think there is anything much any LD would have been able to do about that.
She's had little air time. The LDs have indeed been squeezed out. This could change.
One of the problems for the Lib Dems it appears they are trying to run on a platform of realism. The mood of the middle class across the Western World is we ain't been getting richer for ages now and are kids futures won't be better than ours, what you going to do about it.
If it wasn't for get Brexit done and that fact they are facing Jezza, rather than say an Ed Miliband type, I think the Tories would also be in the absolute shit.
What is "realism" about the Lib Dems?
Is saying "Jo Swinson will be Prime Minister" realism? Is saying "revoke without a referendum" realism?
Is saying . . . ummm actually I can't think what else they've had to say.
I mean on the economic size, re balanced budgets etc.
I must have missed the Lib Dems making serious proposals regarding balanced budgets etc
Which areas are they pledging to either cut or freeze spending in to get the budget balanced? I'm genuinely curious what their realistic alternative is that's taken your fancy.
This all assumes that the new Tory MPs are the "right sort" as viewed by OGH (and others).
Yup, which they won't be. They'll be exceedingly ERGey.
He should have written the headline the other way around: A 14% CON lead would give the ERG the margin to stuff Johnson.
I actually wonder how long the Tories will stick with Boris after he's secured them their majority (assuming he does). Not long is my guess. They won't want some doddery old bumbler erring and umming around the place when a driven, committed, tooth-and-claw ultra is what they crave. Boris is merely a means to an end and will soon be a footnote.
You can not be serious.
Johnson having won the mayoralty twice, the Brexit referendum, an overwhelming majority in the leadership election and the General Election majority that eluded May [if it happens] would be completely secure in his job.
Even if he opts for a transition extension followed by a close deal with the EU and reverts to being the liberal he purported to be when London Mayor? Have you looked at the Tory membership lately?
On topic: It really is striking how the LibDems are failing to capitalise on what should be an ideal strategic scenario for them. Choosing Jo Swinson was a mistake, and it's really hurting them now.
I disagree. The Tories have done very well to frame this election as being a choice between Johnson and Corbyn - which, of course, it is. I don't think there is anything much any LD would have been able to do about that.
Then, of course, the LibDems were completely wrong to go for a GE.
They should have agreed to VNOC Boris, put Corbyn in as PM, and left him to implement his proposal to renegotiate a deal and put it to a referendum.
The choice always was Brexit or Corbyn.
When it really came down to it, the LibDems preferred Brexit.
Like many strategists they’ve spent far too much time in the London Westminster bubble (with wonks, politicians, broadcasters and journalists who all think like them) and the very urban/southern People’s Vote marches (probably at most the same 400k people) provided all the confirmation bias they needed.
It is clear the public have had enough of Brexit and want it resolved. "Get Brexit done" is a simple and powerful message.
Unilateral revocation and/or yet more referenda (alongside utter confusion on which side the Labour Party would fall) are proving unsurprisingly unappealing alternatives.
Trouble is, Getting Brexit Done will not get Brexit done because we'd still be negotiating in a transition period, and nor will it solve any of the political and economic problems of many Leave voters.
100% correct, which is why I agree with (I think) Stodge that the wheels will come off a Johnson win pretty darn quickly. By the summer of 2020, when we are forced to extend the transition period, people will realise they've been led down the garden path.
But really, its their fault for not understanding what 'done' means (ie, not done). Everyone on here knows the WA doesn't get Brexit done. It isn't hard to find out. Just people (voters) choose not to, but instead believe a three word lie (they did that back in 2016 so there is certainly precedent).
It will be quite funny if, having facilitated this election, both the SNP and LDs only advance a few feet whilst the Tories walk away with a solid majority.
The other interesting conversation I had at the weekend was with someone who voted Labour in Bristol NW last time. They had really gone off Corbyn partly due to Anti Semitism, but they also found it extremely annoying when Corbyn went around as if he had won last time!
On topic: It really is striking how the LibDems are failing to capitalise on what should be an ideal strategic scenario for them. Choosing Jo Swinson was a mistake, and it's really hurting them now.
I disagree. The Tories have done very well to frame this election as being a choice between Johnson and Corbyn - which, of course, it is. I don't think there is anything much any LD would have been able to do about that.
She's had little air time. The LDs have indeed been squeezed out. This could change.
She's had air time every day.
Problem with being a one trick pony is that you ignore the message when you've heard it a thousand times before.
Maybe I've been too preoccupied with the Prince Andrew and Jennifer Acuri stories to notice.
I need to upgrade my sources of information.
To be fair the Prince Andrew story is both newer news and more interesting and entertaining than hearing Swinson say for the 1684th time that we need to Remain in the EU.
The Prince Andrew lines about not sweating, being in Pizza Express and not knowing there's a bar in a nightclub are more entertaining and original lies than hearing a Lib Dem try and pretend that Jo Swinson could be our next Prime Minister for the 153rd time this campaign.
It's an exaggeration, Philip, but not strictly a lie because it could happen. It's not very likely, but it's not impossible. So she isn't a liar, or indeed a charlatan, which is a decent start in any comparison with the current PM.
It is clear the public have had enough of Brexit and want it resolved. "Get Brexit done" is a simple and powerful message.
Unilateral revocation and/or yet more referenda (alongside utter confusion on which side the Labour Party would fall) are proving unsurprisingly unappealing alternatives.
Trouble is, Getting Brexit Done will not get Brexit done because we'd still be negotiating in a transition period, and nor will it solve any of the political and economic problems of many Leave voters.
100% correct, which is why I agree with (I think) Stodge that the wheels will come off a Johnson win pretty darn quickly. By the summer of 2020, when we are forced to extend the transition period, people will realise they've been led down the garden path.
But really, its their fault for not understanding what 'done' means (ie, not done). Everyone on here knows the WA doesn't get Brexit done. It isn't hard to find out. Just people (voters) choose not to, but instead believe a three word lie (they did that back in 2016 so there is certainly precedent).
Off topic: does anyone have a view on the likely affect on the pound if the Tories win a majority? Or is this expectation already "in the price"?
The saying "buy on the rumour, sell on the fact" applies. The stream of good polls for the Tories have been good for GBP (yay!), currently at 1.171 EUR and 1.295 GBP. I expect it to exceed 1.2 EUR and possibly hit $1.35 by election day. If Con wins, I think it will then drop back a bit, particularly as the day after is a Friday. If Lab wins then I don't know: drop a lot?
It will be quite funny if, having facilitated this election, both the SNP and LDs only advance a few feet whilst the Tories walk away with a solid majority.
The other interesting conversation I had at the weekend was with someone who voted Labour in Bristol NW last time. They had really gone off Corbyn partly due to Anti Semitism, but they also found it extremely annoying when Corbyn went around as if he had won last time!
I bet if you went to Bristol West rather than North West, you would still find plenty of cheerleaders. That really is West Country Islington.
I notice Charlotte Leslie isn't standing for the Tories there this time.
It will be quite funny if, having facilitated this election, both the SNP and LDs only advance a few feet whilst the Tories walk away with a solid majority.
The SNP would love that, of course.
Boris would block indyref2, Corbyn would enable it in his first term
Off topic: does anyone have a view on the likely affect on the pound if the Tories win a majority? Or is this expectation already "in the price"?
The saying "buy on the rumour, sell on the fact" applies. The stream of good polls for the Tories have been good for GBP (yay!), currently at 1.171 EUR and 1.295 GBP. I expect it to exceed 1.2 EUR and possibly hit $1.35 by election day. If Con wins, I think it will then drop back a bit, particularly as the day after is a Friday. If Lab wins then I don't know: drop a lot?
If we get a Labour-led government, it's not obvious which way sterling would go. There would be the prospect of Corbynesque 'economics' pulling it sharply down, but the prospect of cancelling or softening Brexit pulling it up.
On balance I think the increased short-term uncertainty would cause it to go down but with a lot of volatility.
It will be quite funny if, having facilitated this election, both the SNP and LDs only advance a few feet whilst the Tories walk away with a solid majority.
If the Tories end up with a large majority, the Labour Party will hang this millstone around the neck of the LibDems. Rather than make Corbyn PM, the LibDems preferred to hand a big win to Boris, they will say.
After 1979, the Labour hung the millstone of Thatcherism around the neck of the SNP for facilitating it.
I can see the same happening to the LibDems & Prime Minister Jo.
It will be quite funny if, having facilitated this election, both the SNP and LDs only advance a few feet whilst the Tories walk away with a solid majority.
The SNP would love that, of course.
Boris would block indyref2, Corbyn would enable it in his first term
Perfect for the SNP. There's nothing on this earth they would like more than a Tory government suppressing the will of the Scottish people, as they would frame it.
I’ve been having a think as to the lower Labour numbers and if I can tally up the on the ground experience.
I have been around a few constituencies over the weekend. In my own (Thornbury and Yate, Tory man 8000 over LD) there seems to be the usual split between LD placards in the towns and Tory placards on farmland. Not seen a single labour or green (stood down Remain all) and last time there were quite a few labour placards and they got 6000 votes. I think there is an outside chance of a Libdem victory.
I’ve also been round a bit of the Stroud constituency and saw 3 labour placards and 2 green. This seems well down on last time.
In Bristol NW much talked about yesterday there seemed to be little in the way of placards. In most cities you would think it would be clearly Tory - Stoke Bishop and Westbury on Trym are some of the nicest areas in Bristol both bordering on the Downs. Avonmouth, Shirehampton, Southmead and Lockleaze are working class areas, but much closer to North Bristol employment areas, and much more prosperous than the working class areas in East and South Bristol. Henleaze and Horfield are attractive suburbs with good links to City Centre. The thing for me that would trend this area Labour is the position in between the two Universities and near Southmead hospital but close to the Children’s hospital. You are likely to see a lot of their staff in this area. There are also Bristol Uni halls of residence in Stoke Bishop. It is only my impression but this area seemed to be heavily Labour placarded last time.
Placard count round near me, 1 Lee Rowley in Killamarsh. That's all I've seen so far.
No placards or posters here but two sets of Christmas lights.
I’ve just walked past a house with a Christmas tree and decorations. I really hope that it’s because they cba to take it down.....
On topic: It really is striking how the LibDems are failing to capitalise on what should be an ideal strategic scenario for them. Choosing Jo Swinson was a mistake, and it's really hurting them now.
I disagree. The Tories have done very well to frame this election as being a choice between Johnson and Corbyn - which, of course, it is. I don't think there is anything much any LD would have been able to do about that.
Then, of course, the LibDems were completely wrong to go for a GE.
They should have agreed to VNOC Boris, put Corbyn in as PM, and left him to implement his proposal to renegotiate a deal and put it to a referendum.
The choice always was Brexit or Corbyn.
When it really came down to it, the LibDems preferred Brexit.
Like many strategists they’ve spent far too much time in the London Westminster bubble (with wonks, politicians, broadcasters and journalists who all think like them) and the very urban/southern People’s Vote marches (probably at most the same 400k people) provided all the confirmation bias they needed.
I noted during the fag end of the last parliament that Sturgeon had managed, by virtue of being well outside Westminster, to keep the focus on the SNP being the Scottish National Party and not some remain-lite adjunct.
It will be quite funny if, having facilitated this election, both the SNP and LDs only advance a few feet whilst the Tories walk away with a solid majority.
The SNP would love that, of course.
Boris would block indyref2, Corbyn would enable it in his first term
An indyref2 vote in the next 5 years (with us still in the EU) would probably be lost by the SNP.
An indyref2 after Boris with us outside the EU - I suspect the SNP would walk it.
That doesn't hold under our electoral system. I meet people on a daily basis who are not Tories but are voting for Johnson because they can't stand the thought of a Corbyn government and our system only gives the choice of one or the other.
The choice the Labour membership have made is herding people into the Tory camp whether you care to admit it or not.
The effective binary - if you wish to frame it this way - is between a Tory majority government and a Labour minority government, the latter being able to cancel Brexit, via Ref2, and very little else, certainly none of the radical lefty stuff. If, in this context, a person votes to achieve the former rather than the latter, then fine, but they should not pretend that they were effectively forced into it by fear of Corbyn turning us into Venezuela.
It is clear the public have had enough of Brexit and want it resolved. "Get Brexit done" is a simple and powerful message.
Unilateral revocation and/or yet more referenda (alongside utter confusion on which side the Labour Party would fall) are proving unsurprisingly unappealing alternatives.
Trouble is, Getting Brexit Done will not get Brexit done because we'd still be negotiating in a transition period, and nor will it solve any of the political and economic problems of many Leave voters.
100% correct, which is why I agree with (I think) Stodge that the wheels will come off a Johnson win pretty darn quickly. By the summer of 2020, when we are forced to extend the transition period, people will realise they've been led down the garden path.
But really, its their fault for not understanding what 'done' means (ie, not done). Everyone on here knows the WA doesn't get Brexit done. It isn't hard to find out. Just people (voters) choose not to, but instead believe a three word lie (they did that back in 2016 so there is certainly precedent).
It will be quite funny if, having facilitated this election, both the SNP and LDs only advance a few feet whilst the Tories walk away with a solid majority.
The SNP would love that, of course.
Boris would block indyref2, Corbyn would enable it in his first term
Perfect for the SNP. There's nothing on this earth they would like more than a Tory government suppressing the will of the Scottish people, as they would frame it.
Especially when accompanied by a granite hard Brexit and an economic downturn.
I am not sure Boris announcement will shift any vote the Tories way.
It just seems playing defence against Jezza screaming Tory tax cuts for the rich, but I am not sure those that are sympathetic to that line of attack will be placarded by Boris not cutting corporation tax by a further 2%. Jezza will still scream big evil corporations don't pay their fair share and Boris will say tax take is up after corporation tax cuts.
It does not need to shift any more voters, just hold the Labour Leavers and Brexit Party supporters who have already shifted to the Tories and postponing a corporation tax cut to provide more money for the NHS will do that
It will be quite funny if, having facilitated this election, both the SNP and LDs only advance a few feet whilst the Tories walk away with a solid majority.
The SNP would love that, of course.
Boris would block indyref2, Corbyn would enable it in his first term
Perfect for the SNP. There's nothing on this earth they would like more than a Tory government suppressing the will of the Scottish people, as they would frame it.
They can scream and scream as much as they want, given the Chinese government is firing rubber bullets at Hong Kong demonstrators today and the Spanish government sent the Civil Guard in to crush any indyref taking place in Catalonia and arrested nationalist leaders, Boris merely banning indyref2 looks moderate by comparison and the SNP can do sod all about it especially as they lost a referendum just 5 years ago and are still under 50% in every Scottish poll
Jo Swinson is getting plenty of airtime. But that's no use if that's not how people receive politics any more. I can't be the only one who used to watch television news assiduously who nowadays scarcely bothers. I don't mean to say television news has necessarily got worse. Just that I consume news differently nowadays, just as I go to far fewer physical shops nowadays. How do the LDs cut through this? I honestly don't know. Shitposting and dead cats seems the commonly accepted approach.
It will be quite funny if, having facilitated this election, both the SNP and LDs only advance a few feet whilst the Tories walk away with a solid majority.
The SNP would love that, of course.
Boris would block indyref2, Corbyn would enable it in his first term
Perfect for the SNP. There's nothing on this earth they would like more than a Tory government suppressing the will of the Scottish people, as they would frame it.
Especially when accompanied by a granite hard Brexit and an economic downturn.
Sturgeon wants to rid Scotland of the Tories forever. Getting in a severely restricted Corbyn Gov't that i) Will govern fiscally on the soft left because the Lib Dems won't let them implement all the mad nationalisation ideas and ii) Likely ultimately remains in the EU
It will be quite funny if, having facilitated this election, both the SNP and LDs only advance a few feet whilst the Tories walk away with a solid majority.
If the Tories end up with a large majority, the Labour Party will hang this millstone around the neck of the LibDems. Rather than make Corbyn PM, the LibDems preferred to hand a big win to Boris, they will say.
After 1979, the Labour hung the millstone of Thatcherism around the neck of the SNP for facilitating it.
I can see the same happening to the LibDems & Prime Minister Jo.
They will try to blame everyone but themselves but they knew it wasn't true last time which is why they had to travel from Foot to Blair in order to ever win another election.
Labour will not win another election until they tack back towards the centre again regardless of where the Corbynistas try to pin the blame this time.
It is clear the public have had enough of Brexit and want it resolved. "Get Brexit done" is a simple and powerful message.
Unilateral revocation and/or yet more referenda (alongside utter confusion on which side the Labour Party would fall) are proving unsurprisingly unappealing alternatives.
Trouble is, Getting Brexit Done will not get Brexit done because we'd still be negotiating in a transition period, and nor will it solve any of the political and economic problems of many Leave voters.
100% correct, which is why I agree with (I think) Stodge that the wheels will come off a Johnson win pretty darn quickly. By the summer of 2020, when we are forced to extend the transition period, people will realise they've been led down the garden path.
But really, its their fault for not understanding what 'done' means (ie, not done). Everyone on here knows the WA doesn't get Brexit done. It isn't hard to find out. Just people (voters) choose not to, but instead believe a three word lie (they did that back in 2016 so there is certainly precedent).
It will be quite funny if, having facilitated this election, both the SNP and LDs only advance a few feet whilst the Tories walk away with a solid majority.
The SNP would love that, of course.
Are you saying...
...it would be good for Yes?
A lesser oddity of our markedly odd times is that much loved PB meme that Indy/SNP supporters see everything as of benefit to our cause has been turned on its head. I've seen pretty much every possible outcome (BJ majority dystopia, tiny BJ maj chaos, minority Corbyn chaos, no overall maj chaos, hard brexit chaos, no deal chaos etc) described by the very much non-sympatico as of benefit to the SNP. I mean ferchrissake, I haven't seen an 'SNP honeymoon over' for weeks!
Off topic: does anyone have a view on the likely affect on the pound if the Tories win a majority? Or is this expectation already "in the price"?
The saying "buy on the rumour, sell on the fact" applies. The stream of good polls for the Tories have been good for GBP (yay!), currently at 1.171 EUR and 1.295 GBP. I expect it to exceed 1.2 EUR and possibly hit $1.35 by election day. If Con wins, I think it will then drop back a bit, particularly as the day after is a Friday. If Lab wins then I don't know: drop a lot?
If we get a Labour-led government, it's not obvious which way sterling would go. There would be the prospect of Corbynesque 'economics' pulling it sharply down, but the prospect of cancelling or softening Brexit pulling it up.
On balance I think the increased short-term uncertainty would cause it to go down but with a lot of volatility.
If Labour win, the financial markets will go bonkers and if McDonnell introduces exchange controls will melt down before we get into 2020. Disaster awaits.
Comments
The change is dizzying.
Swinson got high off her own supply and believed her own hype about people wanting to Remain. She's no more serious than Nigel Farage will be about as successful as him as a result, just boosted by the legacy appeal of the Lib Dems.
**adjusted for Survation**
CON 41.4% (+3.4)
LAB 29.3% (+1.0)
LD 14.6% (-1.6)
BXP 6.2% (-2.9)
SNP 3.4% (-0.3)
GRN 3.1% (-0.3)
Oth 2.1% (+0.7)
CON lead 12.1% (+2.4)
11 polls with field-work end-dates 11th to 17th Nov: Kantar, ICM, 2 x ComRes, 2 x YouGov, Panelbase, BMG, Opinium and Deltapoll. And Survation!
For reference's sake, last Sunday's ELBOW was:
CON 38.0% (+/-)
LAB 28.3% (+2.4)
LD 16.2% (-0.5)
BXP 9.1% (-1.1)
SNP 3.7% (+/-)
GRN 3.4% (-0.1)
Oth 1.4% (-0.4)
Con lead 9.7% (-2.4)
And for week-ending 3rd November, my first ELBOW for the current campaign:
CON 38.0%
LAB 25.9%
LD 16.7%
BXP 10.2%
SNP 3.7%
GRN 3.5%
Oth 1.8%
Con lead 12.1%
First applause during Corbyn session here when audience member asks him to say why Labour is not 'for the many not the Jew' , confronting him on anti-semitism
It seemed to me a mistake the revoke policy,in esscence saying she could override democracy.Not a good look for a Lib Dem.
Stop pandering to criticism- stick to a policy which is sound business sense.
Like all politicians they are weak and this shows it.
She should have been building an alternative policy framework on everything else. Ask the average voter what the Lib Dem policy is on health, education, childcare, national defence, crime and justice etc, etc, etc and I think you'd struggle to get an answer. In fact in almost every answer on almost any topic they always seem to segway back into "and that is why we will remain in the EU".
I don't know how Swinson can claim with a straight face to be an alternative PM at the best of times but alternative PM's have policies on issues other than Brexit.
It just seems playing defence against Jezza screaming Tory tax cuts for the rich, but I am not sure those that are sympathetic to that line of attack will be placarded by Boris not cutting corporation tax by a further 2%. Jezza will still scream big evil corporations don't pay their fair share and Boris will say tax take is up after corporation tax cuts.
"Corbs going down like a cup of cold sick I see..."
I hadn`t looked at Seat Total odds for a few days - but now checked and see that Tories are odds-on 1.82 with Betfair (4/5) to win 340 or more seats. Seems a touch skinny?
What I meant was that the prospect of Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister is forcing people to vote Conservative. Because however bad a Conservative government might be, we expect the alternative to be worse.
I don't blame Corbyn for offering his policies to the electorate. I just think he has a terrible set of ideas, he's an egregious politician and he'd be an unmitigated disaster. Thus, a vote in the Conservative column. I'm either responsible for a probably-crappy Conservative government or the certain disaster of Jeremy Corbyn as PM, and I choose the former.
NOT that it makes the slightest bit of difference where I live.
Assuming the broadcasters aren’t idiots and are giving the LibDems a right of reply in the “spin room” and on tv broadcasts, I’m not convinced any court is going to get into editorial decisions of which parties go in which programmes (e.g. having a Boris/Corbyn debate).
I am not a lawyer, but I spend a great deal of my time working with, through, and around regulations.
Hopefully they will come to their senses a lot more quickly this time but I am not holding my breath. Labour's strategy is suicidal when we have a FPTP electoral system and the Tories will be laughing all the way to the polling stations. They can't believe their luck.
Has just claimed that the UK has the lowest recycling rate in Europe, which is untrue.
He has also repeated his claims about increases in medicine, which require 100% of UK medicines to come from the USA. Actually it is about 10%.
Hmmm.
Waiting for Swinson.
Not sure losing that case will be good for the Lib Dems in future elections either.
But really, its their fault for not understanding what 'done' means (ie, not done). Everyone on here knows the WA doesn't get Brexit done. It isn't hard to find out. Just people (voters) choose not to, but instead believe a three word lie (they did that back in 2016 so there is certainly precedent).
That doesn't hold under our electoral system. I meet people on a daily basis who are not Tories but are voting for Johnson because they can't stand the thought of a Corbyn government and our system only gives the choice of one or the other.
The choice the Labour membership have made is herding people into the Tory camp whether you care to admit it or not.
If it wasn't for get Brexit done and that fact they are facing Jezza, rather than say an Ed Miliband type, I think the Tories would also be in the absolute shit.
Problem with being a one trick pony is that you ignore the message when you've heard it a thousand times before.
Intellectually there’s an answer to that, but it takes a while to break down why those tax cuts were good but this one isn’t.
I need to upgrade my sources of information.
They should have agreed to VNOC Boris, put Corbyn in as PM, and left him to implement his proposal to renegotiate a deal and put it to a referendum.
The choice always was Brexit or Corbyn.
When it really came down to it, the LibDems preferred Brexit.
Is saying "Jo Swinson will be Prime Minister" realism?
Is saying "revoke without a referendum" realism?
Is saying . . . ummm actually I can't think what else they've had to say.
It is obvious that revoke would only happen with a Lib Dem majority - and the electoral maths make it equally obvious that could only happen with a majority of the electorate changing its mind on Brexit. All the Lib Dems are saying is that they would facilitate that change of mind.
The argument of just how successful capitalism has been for the world is now been drowned out, because the Western middle class haven't got richer for 10 years. We are in danger of trashing a system that has improved the world, and is still improving the world, at an incredible rate. The Tories seem very unkeen to defend it, Labour have just gone full on hard left socialist economics, rather than New Labour slightly left economically, socially liberal / left.
That isn't to say we shouldn't be looking to adjust things e.g. the world tax system is clearly broken as it was really developed around physical good rather than IP / digital services.
They should have opened up the leadership election to all MPs, past or present. Choosing from the 8 survivors of the Coalition was never going to produce the leader they needed. I like Swinson but she is not going to do what Clegg would have done had he faced such an ideal scenario.
I still think they will get a second shot if Labour opts for another Corbynista as they should come out of this GE as the main opposition to the Tories in a couple of hundred seats and well positioned when the likely backlash against Johnson and Brexit kicks in.
Their prospects after December are now in Labour's hands though
The Prince Andrew lines about not sweating, being in Pizza Express and not knowing there's a bar in a nightclub are more entertaining and original lies than hearing a Lib Dem try and pretend that Jo Swinson could be our next Prime Minister for the 153rd time this campaign.
This is not good for the Tories long-term.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/uxbridgeandruislipsouth/
Which areas are they pledging to either cut or freeze spending in to get the budget balanced? I'm genuinely curious what their realistic alternative is that's taken your fancy.
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1196389726732869632
https://twitter.com/grabcocque/status/1196394539927449601
Most people look for free-range and British farmed eggs these days, and the markings/labelling to show it too.
I notice Charlotte Leslie isn't standing for the Tories there this time.
On balance I think the increased short-term uncertainty would cause it to go down but with a lot of volatility.
After 1979, the Labour hung the millstone of Thatcherism around the neck of the SNP for facilitating it.
I can see the same happening to the LibDems & Prime Minister Jo.
A route Blackford was definitely heading down.
An indyref2 after Boris with us outside the EU - I suspect the SNP would walk it.
Hope he's OK, if only lurking.
I don't mean to say television news has necessarily got worse. Just that I consume news differently nowadays, just as I go to far fewer physical shops nowadays.
How do the LDs cut through this? I honestly don't know. Shitposting and dead cats seems the commonly accepted approach.
i) Will govern fiscally on the soft left because the Lib Dems won't let them implement all the mad nationalisation ideas and
ii) Likely ultimately remains in the EU
Certainly won't achieve that.
Labour will not win another election until they tack back towards the centre again regardless of where the Corbynistas try to pin the blame this time.
Boris appears to think the CT rate cut would cost £6bn. Can't someone have a word with him?
...it would be good for Yes?
A lesser oddity of our markedly odd times is that much loved PB meme that Indy/SNP supporters see everything as of benefit to our cause has been turned on its head. I've seen pretty much every possible outcome (BJ majority dystopia, tiny BJ maj chaos, minority Corbyn chaos, no overall maj chaos, hard brexit chaos, no deal chaos etc) described by the very much non-sympatico as of benefit to the SNP. I mean ferchrissake, I haven't seen an 'SNP honeymoon over' for weeks!