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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A 14% CON lead would give Johnson the margin to stuff the ERG
Survation. on behalf of Good Morning Britain. 18.11.2019 Details and tables here: https://t.co/4TIUmWqHOe pic.twitter.com/1dLh85npjw
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Obviously there isn't going to be a LD majority. "Stop Brexit" may sound like a good slogan, but what are they really going to do after the election?
Others I haven't heard a date.
He should have written the headline the other way around: A 14% CON lead would give the ERG the margin to stuff Johnson.
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Unilateral revocation and/or yet more referenda (alongside utter confusion on which side the Labour Party would fall) are proving unsurprisingly unappealing alternatives.
It wont be straightforward but im afraid i dont buy this "years of conflict and disagreement" narrative. It is in everyones' interests, including the EU's, to get a deal. And when that's the case a deal is usually done.
In the event of a battle, why would new MPs, with the promise of future ministerial limousines, wish to ties themselves to brexithardmansteve Baker and his crew?
It all comes back to David Cameron's mistake in not setting up a Leave-packed commission to establish what Brexit meant, and there is still no consensus.
https://twitter.com/dixieonline/status/1196341334732419072?s=21
https://twitter.com/matthew_downie/status/1196032424762843136?s=20
Especially @Philip_Thompson, you rancid little racist.
That's fifth the odds top three.
If Ferrari aren't competitive enough then Verstappen and Hamilton will likely take the top two places and it becomes a Bottas/Albon duel behind them.
Very impressed with Albon on Sunday.
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What comes after is less important if you're worried that your 2016 vote is going to be ignored completely.
I happen to think that FoM will in due course go throughout the rest of europe. But that's another matter...
Even though the "Get Brexit Done" slogan sounds decisive I really have no idea what he will do once it is obvious that a trade deal with the EU won't be complete by next summer. He appears to be opposed to both No Deal or extending the transition but he is going to have to do one or the other but we aren't going to know which before we vote.
It really could be anything from a liberal Cameroon type government or a right-wing ERG dominated one with Pritti Patel trying to reintroduce the death penalty.
Voting Tory is going to be like voting leave, a great leap of faith to believe you are going to get what you thought you were going to get.
The certainty of deranged far left economic ruin, however, does make that leap into the dark look a lot more promising. If your building's on fire, jumping out of the window seems preferable to the certainty of burning alive.
OK, FoM was the major issue for some people (although those Brexiteers who think FoM and immigration are the same thing will be disappointed the immigration cap is being dropped) and that brings us back to Cameron's mistake which has led to a herd of Brexit unicorns, only some of which relate to FoM. Some want free trade, or sovereignty, or freedom from the European Court or the EHCR which is not the same thing at all.
And that is just the politicians. For some voters, as both Dominic Cummings and Arron Banks have acknowledged, their concerns are not related to Brexit at all, they were disaffected NOTA voters.
Getting Brexit Done will not satisfy most of the first group or any of the second, however effective it is as a slogan.
I think Freedom of Movement is a good thing but Uncontrolled Borders is a bad thing (I suspect many would agree). Squaring the circle between those two things is a challenge for the EU.
The success of the EU project is predicated, above all else, on the goodwill of the European peoples. If EU citizens feel that FoM is making them less safe (terrorism etc) then that is a huge problem for the EU, no matter how tenuous or over-exaggerated the safety fears may be.
Nor did a recent leader say in so many words, as Nick Clegg did, that any LibDem pledge or manifesto was meaningless because it was all up for grabs.
Interesting read this morning from HRH Curtice on Scotland and its surfeit of marginals. There is, I think, some capacity for surprises against the head there. East Lothian and Perthshire look interesting as does Swinson going down. A complete collapse of scotlab might let the Tories oust the Cherry and, of course, there is potential value in backing SNP regains just about anywhere except 2 of the border seats. I anticipate Scotland being very exciting alongside the NE and the home counties for jaw droppers and omg moments
And, yes, obviously a large majority gives the PM authority to do more or less what he (or she in Maggie's case) likes. Though even 2nd-term Margaret didn't get the Shops Act through. Perhaps Boris will be like Brown, however, in having schemed for power for years, but having no idea what to do with it once he gets it. Still, it will be nice to have a stable government that can address the country's problems if it feels like it again.
Freedom of Movement as a basic right is something to be encouraged.
The monitoring of that movement and its restriction in individual cases for the sake of security is an important task of the state.
Can't see too many switching to Labour with their counterfactual.
FPT
Re: Facebook ads
This has been happening for years (remember all the union funded ads on the nhs etc)
They don’t recommend a vote for Labour so they don’t count towards the campaign spending even though the messaging is helpful and there is an overlap in donors.
Similarly I’m sure that the messaging on these Facebook ads is helpful and they are probably funded by Tory donors (not the party itself)
It’s not to say that it’s right, but it’s not new and part of a bigger problem. But doubtless the left will complain now the Tories have caught up with them
Rejoin/close relationship/hard Brexit polls will be key.
On its merits it's a reasonable move. The Corporation Tax rate is already low enough to be attractive for inward investment. Sorting out the utter dog's breakfast of business rates, which have economically distorting effects and are really quite arbitrary, should be a much higher priority.
General election 2019: PM puts corporation cuts on hold to help fund NHS
He is delivering his speech quite well how is he an embarrassment? Or do you mean generally
Do you think that maybe CON will now hold Richmond Park?
i) There should be a second referendum and I would vote to leave.
ii) There should not be a second referendum, but if there were I would vote to leave.
iii) There should be a second referendum and I would vote to remain.
iv) There should not be a second referendum, but if there were I would vote to remain.
Johnson having won the mayoralty twice, the Brexit referendum, an overwhelming majority in the leadership election and the General Election majority that eluded May [if it happens] would be completely secure in his job.
I have been around a few constituencies over the weekend. In my own (Thornbury and Yate, Tory man 8000 over LD) there seems to be the usual split between LD placards in the towns and Tory placards on farmland. Not seen a single labour or green (stood down Remain all) and last time there were quite a few labour placards and they got 6000 votes.
I think there is an outside chance of a Libdem victory.
I’ve also been round a bit of the Stroud constituency and saw 3 labour placards and 2 green. This seems well down on last time.
In Bristol NW much talked about yesterday there seemed to be little in the way of placards. In most cities you would think it would be clearly Tory - Stoke Bishop and Westbury on Trym are some of the nicest areas in Bristol both bordering on the Downs. Avonmouth, Shirehampton, Southmead and Lockleaze are working class areas, but much closer to North Bristol employment areas, and much more prosperous than the working class areas in East and South Bristol. Henleaze and Horfield are attractive suburbs with good links to City Centre. The thing for me that would trend this area Labour is the position in between the two Universities and near Southmead hospital but close to the Children’s hospital. You are likely to see a lot of their staff in this area. There are also Bristol Uni halls of residence in Stoke Bishop. It is only my impression but this area seemed to be heavily Labour placarded last time.
Maybe there is too much fear of the 'wrong' outcome for people to feel able to vote for a third party. Maybe the ideal situation for the LDs was actually 2005 - disillusion with the main two parties but little outright terror of them.
That said, a few policies beyond overturning the result of the referendum might have helped.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide
As you can see it hasn't been updated since 2015, there's some commentary still but not as busy as previously.