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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A 14% CON lead would give Johnson the margin to stuff the ERG

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited November 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A 14% CON lead would give Johnson the margin to stuff the ERG

Survation. on behalf of Good Morning Britain. 18.11.2019 Details and tables here: https://t.co/4TIUmWqHOe pic.twitter.com/1dLh85npjw

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,964
    First like Boris....
  • When do the manifestos drop? It will be interesting to see how much wriggle-room the parties allow themselves on Brexit.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,964

    When do the manifestos drop? It will be interesting to see how much wriggle-room the parties allow themselves on Brexit.

    All of them this week I think.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092
    The header has the wrong end of the stick. It's not that Johnson can or might want to "stuff the ERG" but that the Cons are now ERG light. Which is all to the good.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,010
    Can anyone tell me - have the Lib Dems actually indicated what their position on Brexit would be in a hung parliament?

    Obviously there isn't going to be a LD majority. "Stop Brexit" may sound like a good slogan, but what are they really going to do after the election?
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    When do the manifestos drop? It will be interesting to see how much wriggle-room the parties allow themselves on Brexit.

    Labour was Mon / Tues but now delayed until Thursday, I think.

    Others I haven't heard a date.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    This all assumes that the new Tory MPs are the "right sort" as viewed by OGH (and others).
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,288
    philiph said:

    When do the manifestos drop? It will be interesting to see how much wriggle-room the parties allow themselves on Brexit.

    Labour was Mon / Tues but now delayed until Thursday, I think.

    Others I haven't heard a date.
    Hasn't Labours manifesto been leaked....
  • tlg86 said:

    This all assumes that the new Tory MPs are the "right sort" as viewed by OGH (and others).

    Yup, which they won't be. They'll be exceedingly ERGey.

    He should have written the headline the other way around: A 14% CON lead would give the ERG the margin to stuff Johnson.
  • Shadow Cabinet anagrams 2019 election edition-

    Harboring crud
    Me terribly horny
    To be a bandit / obtain a debt
    Rare angry bird
    Hifi farting
    Wart bundle
    Enlarge a yarn

    And for balance, some Cabinet ones -

    I am cod brain
    Trip lie apt ( Is raelly(sic) quite apt!)
    He love magic
    Be drunk bar clot
    Hey, let's ban crap
    Made an old arse
    Blazes true shit
    Frothy feces
    Malign law vision
    Real servile shit
    I mock granny
  • It is clear the public have had enough of Brexit and want it resolved. "Get Brexit done" is a simple and powerful message.

    Unilateral revocation and/or yet more referenda (alongside utter confusion on which side the Labour Party would fall) are proving unsurprisingly unappealing alternatives.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    Off topic: does anyone have a view on the likely affect on the pound if the Tories win a majority? Or is this expectation already "in the price"?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092
    Rich data pickings in those Survation tables, but what on earth is the question about best PM: Piers Morgan or Susanna Reid?
  • It is clear the public have had enough of Brexit and want it resolved. "Get Brexit done" is a simple and powerful message.

    Unilateral revocation and/or yet more referenda (alongside utter confusion on which side the Labour Party would fall) are proving unsurprisingly unappealing alternatives.

    Trouble is, Getting Brexit Done will not get Brexit done because we'd still be negotiating in a transition period, and nor will it solve any of the political and economic problems of many Leave voters.
  • tlg86 said:

    This all assumes that the new Tory MPs are the "right sort" as viewed by OGH (and others).

    Yup, which they won't be. They'll be exceedingly ERGey.

    He should have written the headline the other way around: A 14% CON lead would give the ERG the margin to stuff Johnson.
    I actually wonder how long the Tories will stick with Boris after he's secured them their majority (assuming he does). Not long is my guess. They won't want some doddery old bumbler erring and umming around the place when a driven, committed, tooth-and-claw ultra is what they crave. Boris is merely a means to an end and will soon be a footnote.
  • Chris said:

    Can anyone tell me - have the Lib Dems actually indicated what their position on Brexit would be in a hung parliament?

    Obviously there isn't going to be a LD majority. "Stop Brexit" may sound like a good slogan, but what are they really going to do after the election?

    I'm not sure if they've explicitly said this but it's obviously a referendum putting Remain against whatever whoever ends up as PM negotiates.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092
    Stocky said:

    Off topic: does anyone have a view on the likely affect on the pound if the Tories win a majority? Or is this expectation already "in the price"?

    Isn't it usually assumed to be "in the price" with probabilistic expectations weighting? My view is that it will go up substantially if and when the uncertainty about the complexion of the new government is resolved and the Cons win.
  • Stocky said:

    Off topic: does anyone have a view on the likely affect on the pound if the Tories win a majority? Or is this expectation already "in the price"?

    +10%
  • Damn you Survation! Always late to the party! :lol:
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    geoffw said:

    Rich data pickings in those Survation tables, but what on earth is the question about best PM: Piers Morgan or Susanna Reid?

    Was it not commissioned by ITV? I guess the results were discussed on GMB.
  • It is clear the public have had enough of Brexit and want it resolved. "Get Brexit done" is a simple and powerful message.

    Unilateral revocation and/or yet more referenda (alongside utter confusion on which side the Labour Party would fall) are proving unsurprisingly unappealing alternatives.

    Trouble is, Getting Brexit Done will not get Brexit done because we'd still be negotiating in a transition period, and nor will it solve any of the political and economic problems of many Leave voters.
    With a powerful majority and a united govenment getting a deal will be a whole lot easier than it would otherwise have been.

    It wont be straightforward but im afraid i dont buy this "years of conflict and disagreement" narrative. It is in everyones' interests, including the EU's, to get a deal. And when that's the case a deal is usually done.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,591

    It is clear the public have had enough of Brexit and want it resolved. "Get Brexit done" is a simple and powerful message.

    Unilateral revocation and/or yet more referenda (alongside utter confusion on which side the Labour Party would fall) are proving unsurprisingly unappealing alternatives.

    Trouble is, Getting Brexit Done will not get Brexit done because we'd still be negotiating in a transition period, and nor will it solve any of the political and economic problems of many Leave voters.
    Even though it's entirely dishonest, it's not wrong to say that it's a simple and powerful message.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,732
    Lib Dem’s seem to be drifting in the markets. Shame, I was hoping the constant ramping of their chances would fatten the Turkey close to election time for a nice sell. Looks like I missed the boat
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469

    It is clear the public have had enough of Brexit and want it resolved. "Get Brexit done" is a simple and powerful message.

    Unilateral revocation and/or yet more referenda (alongside utter confusion on which side the Labour Party would fall) are proving unsurprisingly unappealing alternatives.

    Trouble is, Getting Brexit Done will not get Brexit done because we'd still be negotiating in a transition period, and nor will it solve any of the political and economic problems of many Leave voters.
    But in many peoples eyes it will have been done..the most important bit to them anyway..the spectacle of actually going is massively important
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,591

    tlg86 said:

    This all assumes that the new Tory MPs are the "right sort" as viewed by OGH (and others).

    Yup, which they won't be. They'll be exceedingly ERGey.

    He should have written the headline the other way around: A 14% CON lead would give the ERG the margin to stuff Johnson.
    I actually wonder how long the Tories will stick with Boris after he's secured them their majority (assuming he does). Not long is my guess. They won't want some doddery old bumbler erring and umming around the place when a driven, committed, tooth-and-claw ultra is what they crave. Boris is merely a means to an end and will soon be a footnote.
    Retired to spend more time with his Gremlins ?
  • camelcamel Posts: 815

    tlg86 said:

    This all assumes that the new Tory MPs are the "right sort" as viewed by OGH (and others).

    Yup, which they won't be. They'll be exceedingly ERGey.

    He should have written the headline the other way around: A 14% CON lead would give the ERG the margin to stuff Johnson.
    I should think a thumping Con majority would allow Boris to choose direction for the government. He may choose the ERG path but he may not. Let's face it, he stands for nothing except being PM.

    In the event of a battle, why would new MPs, with the promise of future ministerial limousines, wish to ties themselves to brexithardmansteve Baker and his crew?
  • Certainly if Boris could hint that headbangers like the Private would be neutralised from the media and Parliament by his getting a big majority that would be rather appealing to me!
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613

    Stocky said:

    Off topic: does anyone have a view on the likely affect on the pound if the Tories win a majority? Or is this expectation already "in the price"?

    +10%
    Can't see sterling going above $1.40 until a Brexit deal clears Parliament and there's a clear path to a FTA.
  • It is clear the public have had enough of Brexit and want it resolved. "Get Brexit done" is a simple and powerful message.

    Unilateral revocation and/or yet more referenda (alongside utter confusion on which side the Labour Party would fall) are proving unsurprisingly unappealing alternatives.

    Trouble is, Getting Brexit Done will not get Brexit done because we'd still be negotiating in a transition period, and nor will it solve any of the political and economic problems of many Leave voters.
    With a powerful majority and a united govenment getting a deal will be a whole lot easier than it would otherwise have been.

    It wont be straightforward but im afraid i dont buy this "years of conflict and disagreement" narrative. It is in everyones' interests, including the EU's, to get a deal. And when that's the case a deal is usually done.
    Of course a deal can be done. Whether a deal can be done simultaneously with the EU and the US is less clear. Nor will a deal solve the problems of many of those who voted Brexit. Brexit is not going to go away just because it has been "Got Done".

    It all comes back to David Cameron's mistake in not setting up a Leave-packed commission to establish what Brexit meant, and there is still no consensus.
  • It is clear the public have had enough of Brexit and want it resolved. "Get Brexit done" is a simple and powerful message.

    Unilateral revocation and/or yet more referenda (alongside utter confusion on which side the Labour Party would fall) are proving unsurprisingly unappealing alternatives.

    Trouble is, Getting Brexit Done will not get Brexit done because we'd still be negotiating in a transition period, and nor will it solve any of the political and economic problems of many Leave voters.
    What does that long-forgotten counter phrase "Get Brexit sorted" offer them?
  • See, we're nothing like the States. That poor fcuker would have been dead years ago 'cos he wouldn't have been given a ventilator in the first place.

    https://twitter.com/matthew_downie/status/1196032424762843136?s=20
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,013

    It is clear the public have had enough of Brexit and want it resolved. "Get Brexit done" is a simple and powerful message.

    Unilateral revocation and/or yet more referenda (alongside utter confusion on which side the Labour Party would fall) are proving unsurprisingly unappealing alternatives.

    The public are profoundly dumb: "done", indeed.
  • It is clear the public have had enough of Brexit and want it resolved. "Get Brexit done" is a simple and powerful message.

    Unilateral revocation and/or yet more referenda (alongside utter confusion on which side the Labour Party would fall) are proving unsurprisingly unappealing alternatives.

    Trouble is, Getting Brexit Done will not get Brexit done because we'd still be negotiating in a transition period, and nor will it solve any of the political and economic problems of many Leave voters.
    With a powerful majority and a united govenment getting a deal will be a whole lot easier than it would otherwise have been.

    It wont be straightforward but im afraid i dont buy this "years of conflict and disagreement" narrative. It is in everyones' interests, including the EU's, to get a deal. And when that's the case a deal is usually done.
    I doubt there will be a FTA. After securing a majority the new-look Tory party will be rabid and utterly triumphant. Boris will be under huge pressure to say to the EU 'Stuff you. We are England!' They'll want to copy Trump - dogged diplomacy and nuanced trade-offs will be for wimps.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    Good morning islamophobes.
    Especially @Philip_Thompson, you rancid little racist.
  • FPT: F1: just backed Albon at 101 (131 with boost) each way for the 2020 title.

    That's fifth the odds top three.

    If Ferrari aren't competitive enough then Verstappen and Hamilton will likely take the top two places and it becomes a Bottas/Albon duel behind them.

    Very impressed with Albon on Sunday.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115

    Certainly if Boris could hint that headbangers like the Private would be neutralised from the media and Parliament by his getting a big majority that would be rather appealing to me!

    Snap.
  • Shadow Cabinet anagrams 2019 election edition-

    Harboring crud
    Me terribly horny
    To be a bandit / obtain a debt
    Rare angry bird
    Hifi farting
    Wart bundle
    Enlarge a yarn

    And for balance, some Cabinet ones -

    I am cod brain
    Trip lie apt ( Is raelly(sic) quite apt!)
    He love magic
    Be drunk bar clot
    Hey, let's ban crap
    Made an old arse
    Blazes true shit
    Frothy feces
    Malign law vision
    Real servile shit
    I mock granny
    And a few LDs..

    Incurable rage
    Shaming tale / Is mental hag
    Or a townhall ass
    Airs a chemical trail
    And beaten to shitcan
    I am my shag
    Use a whore-hub
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    Great article by @Pulpstar yesterday btw - I love explanatory stuff like that! Excellent work.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    Mango said:

    It is clear the public have had enough of Brexit and want it resolved. "Get Brexit done" is a simple and powerful message.

    Unilateral revocation and/or yet more referenda (alongside utter confusion on which side the Labour Party would fall) are proving unsurprisingly unappealing alternatives.

    The public are profoundly dumb: "done", indeed.
    "Let's take revoke, remain, second referendum, people's vote etc off the table as soon as we can" is a less snappy soundbite.

    What comes after is less important if you're worried that your 2016 vote is going to be ignored completely.
  • Noo said:

    Good morning islamophobes.
    Especially @Philip_Thompson, you rancid little racist.

    Can Snithson please ban this idiot....
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    Noo said:

    Good morning islamophobes.
    Especially @Philip_Thompson, you rancid little racist.

    Unequivocal.
  • It is clear the public have had enough of Brexit and want it resolved. "Get Brexit done" is a simple and powerful message.

    Unilateral revocation and/or yet more referenda (alongside utter confusion on which side the Labour Party would fall) are proving unsurprisingly unappealing alternatives.

    Trouble is, Getting Brexit Done will not get Brexit done because we'd still be negotiating in a transition period, and nor will it solve any of the political and economic problems of many Leave voters.
    With a powerful majority and a united govenment getting a deal will be a whole lot easier than it would otherwise have been.

    It wont be straightforward but im afraid i dont buy this "years of conflict and disagreement" narrative. It is in everyones' interests, including the EU's, to get a deal. And when that's the case a deal is usually done.
    Of course a deal can be done. Whether a deal can be done simultaneously with the EU and the US is less clear. Nor will a deal solve the problems of many of those who voted Brexit. Brexit is not going to go away just because it has been "Got Done".

    It all comes back to David Cameron's mistake in not setting up a Leave-packed commission to establish what Brexit meant, and there is still no consensus.
    Freedom of movement will go. And that is the major issue.

    I happen to think that FoM will in due course go throughout the rest of europe. But that's another matter...
  • It is clear the public have had enough of Brexit and want it resolved. "Get Brexit done" is a simple and powerful message.

    Unilateral revocation and/or yet more referenda (alongside utter confusion on which side the Labour Party would fall) are proving unsurprisingly unappealing alternatives.

    Trouble is, Getting Brexit Done will not get Brexit done because we'd still be negotiating in a transition period, and nor will it solve any of the political and economic problems of many Leave voters.
    What does that long-forgotten counter phrase "Get Brexit sorted" offer them?
    Or, indeed, "Get Brexit Undone", which is presumably painted on the off-side of that bus with prime minister Swinson on the nearside.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,911
    edited November 2019
    camel said:

    tlg86 said:

    This all assumes that the new Tory MPs are the "right sort" as viewed by OGH (and others).

    Yup, which they won't be. They'll be exceedingly ERGey.

    He should have written the headline the other way around: A 14% CON lead would give the ERG the margin to stuff Johnson.
    I should think a thumping Con majority would allow Boris to choose direction for the government. He may choose the ERG path but he may not. Let's face it, he stands for nothing except being PM.

    In the event of a battle, why would new MPs, with the promise of future ministerial limousines, wish to ties themselves to brexithardmansteve Baker and his crew?
    Other than being "Not-Corbyn" I have no idea of what the tone of a Johnson Government will be. Going into a GE that is highly unusual.

    Even though the "Get Brexit Done" slogan sounds decisive I really have no idea what he will do once it is obvious that a trade deal with the EU won't be complete by next summer. He appears to be opposed to both No Deal or extending the transition but he is going to have to do one or the other but we aren't going to know which before we vote.

    It really could be anything from a liberal Cameroon type government or a right-wing ERG dominated one with Pritti Patel trying to reintroduce the death penalty.

    Voting Tory is going to be like voting leave, a great leap of faith to believe you are going to get what you thought you were going to get.
  • Noo said:

    Good morning islamophobes.
    Especially @Philip_Thompson, you rancid little racist.

    Can Snithson please ban this idiot....
    It is tedious beyond belief
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    Question - How do I get to the full UK Polling report - the site I now get is missing all the very useful constituencey blogs.
  • camel said:

    Noo said:

    Good morning islamophobes.
    Especially @Philip_Thompson, you rancid little racist.

    Unequivocal.
    Wow. What have I missed?
  • Mr. T, to a large extent, that's true.

    The certainty of deranged far left economic ruin, however, does make that leap into the dark look a lot more promising. If your building's on fire, jumping out of the window seems preferable to the certainty of burning alive.
  • It is clear the public have had enough of Brexit and want it resolved. "Get Brexit done" is a simple and powerful message.

    Unilateral revocation and/or yet more referenda (alongside utter confusion on which side the Labour Party would fall) are proving unsurprisingly unappealing alternatives.

    Trouble is, Getting Brexit Done will not get Brexit done because we'd still be negotiating in a transition period, and nor will it solve any of the political and economic problems of many Leave voters.
    With a powerful majority and a united govenment getting a deal will be a whole lot easier than it would otherwise have been.

    It wont be straightforward but im afraid i dont buy this "years of conflict and disagreement" narrative. It is in everyones' interests, including the EU's, to get a deal. And when that's the case a deal is usually done.
    Of course a deal can be done. Whether a deal can be done simultaneously with the EU and the US is less clear. Nor will a deal solve the problems of many of those who voted Brexit. Brexit is not going to go away just because it has been "Got Done".

    It all comes back to David Cameron's mistake in not setting up a Leave-packed commission to establish what Brexit meant, and there is still no consensus.
    Freedom of movement will go. And that is the major issue.

    I happen to think that FoM will in due course go throughout the rest of europe. But that's another matter...
    Freedom of Movement is not the major issue. It was never the major issue.

    OK, FoM was the major issue for some people (although those Brexiteers who think FoM and immigration are the same thing will be disappointed the immigration cap is being dropped) and that brings us back to Cameron's mistake which has led to a herd of Brexit unicorns, only some of which relate to FoM. Some want free trade, or sovereignty, or freedom from the European Court or the EHCR which is not the same thing at all.

    And that is just the politicians. For some voters, as both Dominic Cummings and Arron Banks have acknowledged, their concerns are not related to Brexit at all, they were disaffected NOTA voters.

    Getting Brexit Done will not satisfy most of the first group or any of the second, however effective it is as a slogan.

  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,861
    Chris said:

    Can anyone tell me - have the Lib Dems actually indicated what their position on Brexit would be in a hung parliament?

    Obviously there isn't going to be a LD majority. "Stop Brexit" may sound like a good slogan, but what are they really going to do after the election?

    But no party says what policies they are prepared to dich in coalition (or similar) negotiations. Are we asking the conservatives what policies they will ditch if they only get 310 seats? Are we asking Labour ....?
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    @DecrepitJohnL

    I think Freedom of Movement is a good thing but Uncontrolled Borders is a bad thing (I suspect many would agree). Squaring the circle between those two things is a challenge for the EU.

    The success of the EU project is predicated, above all else, on the goodwill of the European peoples. If EU citizens feel that FoM is making them less safe (terrorism etc) then that is a huge problem for the EU, no matter how tenuous or over-exaggerated the safety fears may be.
  • eristdoof said:

    Chris said:

    Can anyone tell me - have the Lib Dems actually indicated what their position on Brexit would be in a hung parliament?

    Obviously there isn't going to be a LD majority. "Stop Brexit" may sound like a good slogan, but what are they really going to do after the election?

    But no party says what policies they are prepared to dich in coalition (or similar) negotiations. Are we asking the conservatives what policies they will ditch if they only get 310 seats? Are we asking Labour ....?
    Labour and Conservatives are fighting for overall majorities, not to be in coalition.

    Nor did a recent leader say in so many words, as Nick Clegg did, that any LibDem pledge or manifesto was meaningless because it was all up for grabs.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,865
    edited November 2019
    Nigelb said:

    Even though it's entirely dishonest, it's not wrong to say that it's a simple and powerful message.

    Which gets me thinking, is it possible to have a complicated and powerful message? Or indeed a complicated message of any sort? Probably not, because the word "message" implies short and simple. If not it becomes something else. Treatise. Theory. Formulation. Proposal. Trouble is, in politics, the truth is always complex. Too complex for most people to understand. Therefore you need a message to summarize it. Fine so long as the message is an apt distillation of the more complex truth. But a big problem when it isn't.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    OllyT said:

    camel said:

    tlg86 said:

    This all assumes that the new Tory MPs are the "right sort" as viewed by OGH (and others).

    Yup, which they won't be. They'll be exceedingly ERGey.

    He should have written the headline the other way around: A 14% CON lead would give the ERG the margin to stuff Johnson.
    I should think a thumping Con majority would allow Boris to choose direction for the government. He may choose the ERG path but he may not. Let's face it, he stands for nothing except being PM.

    In the event of a battle, why would new MPs, with the promise of future ministerial limousines, wish to ties themselves to brexithardmansteve Baker and his crew?
    Other than being "Not-Corbyn" I have no idea of what the tone of a Johnson Government will be. Going into a GE that is highly unusual.

    Even though the "Get Brexit Done" slogan sounds decisive I really have no idea what he will do once it is obvious that a trade deal with the EU won't be complete by next summer. He appears to be opposed to both No Deal or extending the transition but he is going to have to do one or the other but we aren't going to know which before we vote.

    It really could be anything from a liberal Cameroon type government or a right-wing ERG dominated one with Pritti Patel trying to reintroduce the death penalty.

    Voting Tory is going to be like voting leave, a great leap of faith to believe you are going to get what you thought you were going to get.
    I find it highly amusing when the usual people start going on about the Lib Dems being the tories little helpers when the real little helper is Corbyn leaving Johnson with no need to say anything except corbyn would be a disaster.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,853
    Morning all.
    Interesting read this morning from HRH Curtice on Scotland and its surfeit of marginals. There is, I think, some capacity for surprises against the head there. East Lothian and Perthshire look interesting as does Swinson going down. A complete collapse of scotlab might let the Tories oust the Cherry and, of course, there is potential value in backing SNP regains just about anywhere except 2 of the border seats. I anticipate Scotland being very exciting alongside the NE and the home counties for jaw droppers and omg moments
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,557
    I like polls where CON>LAB+LD. Flashbacks to early 2017 and late 2008.

    And, yes, obviously a large majority gives the PM authority to do more or less what he (or she in Maggie's case) likes. Though even 2nd-term Margaret didn't get the Shops Act through. Perhaps Boris will be like Brown, however, in having schemed for power for years, but having no idea what to do with it once he gets it. Still, it will be nice to have a stable government that can address the country's problems if it feels like it again.
  • Guido is reporting that Boris is ditching the corporation tax cuts.
  • It is clear the public have had enough of Brexit and want it resolved. "Get Brexit done" is a simple and powerful message.

    Unilateral revocation and/or yet more referenda (alongside utter confusion on which side the Labour Party would fall) are proving unsurprisingly unappealing alternatives.

    Trouble is, Getting Brexit Done will not get Brexit done because we'd still be negotiating in a transition period, and nor will it solve any of the political and economic problems of many Leave voters.
    With a powerful majority and a united govenment getting a deal will be a whole lot easier than it would otherwise have been.

    It wont be straightforward but im afraid i dont buy this "years of conflict and disagreement" narrative. It is in everyones' interests, including the EU's, to get a deal. And when that's the case a deal is usually done.
    Of course a deal can be done. Whether a deal can be done simultaneously with the EU and the US is less clear. Nor will a deal solve the problems of many of those who voted Brexit. Brexit is not going to go away just because it has been "Got Done".

    It all comes back to David Cameron's mistake in not setting up a Leave-packed commission to establish what Brexit meant, and there is still no consensus.

    The UK will set its red lines for deals with the EU and the US, the EU and the US will then tell us what we can have. In theory, it should not take long to sort out - but the UK will need to make a decsion on which sphere of influence to prioritise in order to make sure the two deals are compatible. The more we lean to the US, the less our access to the Single Market will be - and vice versa. But there will be very little actual negotiation because the other side of the table will hold all the cards.

  • Fenster said:

    @DecrepitJohnL

    I think Freedom of Movement is a good thing but Uncontrolled Borders is a bad thing (I suspect many would agree). Squaring the circle between those two things is a challenge for the EU.

    The success of the EU project is predicated, above all else, on the goodwill of the European peoples. If EU citizens feel that FoM is making them less safe (terrorism etc) then that is a huge problem for the EU, no matter how tenuous or over-exaggerated the safety fears may be.

    Yep that is a good comment. This is why I was happy with Freedom of Movement within the EU (although would have preferred it to be spread to non EU countries) but would have strongly opposed our membership of Schengen.

    Freedom of Movement as a basic right is something to be encouraged.
    The monitoring of that movement and its restriction in individual cases for the sake of security is an important task of the state.
  • Guido is reporting that Boris is ditching the corporation tax cuts.

    He has postponed further cuts to corporation tax saving 6 billion per year
  • Fishing said:

    I like polls where CON>LAB+LD. Flashbacks to early 2017 and late 2008.

    And, yes, obviously a large majority gives the PM authority to do more or less what he (or she in Maggie's case) likes. Though even 2nd-term Margaret didn't get the Shops Act through. Perhaps Boris will be like Brown, however, in having schemed for power for years, but having no idea what to do with it once he gets it. Still, it will be nice to have a stable government that can address the country's problems if it feels like it again.

    The FTPA will probably be gone...
  • nichomar said:

    OllyT said:

    camel said:

    tlg86 said:

    This all assumes that the new Tory MPs are the "right sort" as viewed by OGH (and others).

    Yup, which they won't be. They'll be exceedingly ERGey.

    He should have written the headline the other way around: A 14% CON lead would give the ERG the margin to stuff Johnson.
    I should think a thumping Con majority would allow Boris to choose direction for the government. He may choose the ERG path but he may not. Let's face it, he stands for nothing except being PM.

    In the event of a battle, why would new MPs, with the promise of future ministerial limousines, wish to ties themselves to brexithardmansteve Baker and his crew?
    Other than being "Not-Corbyn" I have no idea of what the tone of a Johnson Government will be. Going into a GE that is highly unusual.

    Even though the "Get Brexit Done" slogan sounds decisive I really have no idea what he will do once it is obvious that a trade deal with the EU won't be complete by next summer. He appears to be opposed to both No Deal or extending the transition but he is going to have to do one or the other but we aren't going to know which before we vote.

    It really could be anything from a liberal Cameroon type government or a right-wing ERG dominated one with Pritti Patel trying to reintroduce the death penalty.

    Voting Tory is going to be like voting leave, a great leap of faith to believe you are going to get what you thought you were going to get.
    I find it highly amusing when the usual people start going on about the Lib Dems being the tories little helpers when the real little helper is Corbyn leaving Johnson with no need to say anything except corbyn would be a disaster.

    Exactly. Corbyn is by far the most effective campaigning tool Johnson has.

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,865
    nichomar said:

    I find it highly amusing when the usual people start going on about the Lib Dems being the tories little helpers when the real little helper is Corbyn leaving Johnson with no need to say anything except corbyn would be a disaster.

    Who I'll blame for a Boris Johnson majority will be the people who vote for him. There's nothing forcing them to do it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Guido is reporting that Boris is ditching the corporation tax cuts.

    Good politics I think ? The business rate relief will be higher up in the minds of small business owners I think.

    Can't see too many switching to Labour with their counterfactual.
  • Guido is reporting that Boris is ditching the corporation tax cuts.

    He has postponed further cuts to corporation tax saving 6 billion per year

    Yep, he is pulling back on another lie he told during his leadership campaign.

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,865
    OllyT said:

    Other than being "Not-Corbyn" I have no idea of what the tone of a Johnson Government will be. Going into a GE that is highly unusual.

    Even though the "Get Brexit Done" slogan sounds decisive I really have no idea what he will do once it is obvious that a trade deal with the EU won't be complete by next summer. He appears to be opposed to both No Deal or extending the transition but he is going to have to do one or the other but we aren't going to know which before we vote.

    It really could be anything from a liberal Cameroon type government or a right-wing ERG dominated one with Pritti Patel trying to reintroduce the death penalty.

    Voting Tory is going to be like voting leave, a great leap of faith to believe you are going to get what you thought you were going to get.

    Yes, good observation. It is very much like that. With a big Tory majority, I think the ultimate EU deal will be close alignment rather than clean break. More Switzerland or Norway than Canada or Japan. But it all depends on the brain chemistry of a single skittish individual. The way to understand our politics is to realize that it is NOT about Brexit. That, like everything else, is mere grist to the mill of what is really important. The only game in town. The Boris Johnson Project. Objective, maximize the political prospects of Boris Johnson. Method, whatever it takes. It has gone swimmingly for the last 2 years and right now it looks like hitting the bulls-eye on Dec 12th.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    @NoSpaceName @DecrepitJohnL

    FPT

    Re: Facebook ads

    This has been happening for years (remember all the union funded ads on the nhs etc)

    They don’t recommend a vote for Labour so they don’t count towards the campaign spending even though the messaging is helpful and there is an overlap in donors.

    Similarly I’m sure that the messaging on these Facebook ads is helpful and they are probably funded by Tory donors (not the party itself)

    It’s not to say that it’s right, but it’s not new and part of a bigger problem. But doubtless the left will complain now the Tories have caught up with them
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    kinabalu said:

    OllyT said:

    Other than being "Not-Corbyn" I have no idea of what the tone of a Johnson Government will be. Going into a GE that is highly unusual.

    Even though the "Get Brexit Done" slogan sounds decisive I really have no idea what he will do once it is obvious that a trade deal with the EU won't be complete by next summer. He appears to be opposed to both No Deal or extending the transition but he is going to have to do one or the other but we aren't going to know which before we vote.

    It really could be anything from a liberal Cameroon type government or a right-wing ERG dominated one with Pritti Patel trying to reintroduce the death penalty.

    Voting Tory is going to be like voting leave, a great leap of faith to believe you are going to get what you thought you were going to get.

    Yes, good observation. It is very much like that. With a big Tory majority, I think the ultimate EU deal will be close alignment rather than clean break. More Switzerland or Norway than Canada or Japan. But it all depends on the brain chemistry of a single skittish individual. The way to understand our politics is to realize that it is NOT about Brexit. That, like everything else, is mere grist to the mill of what is really important. The only game in town. The Boris Johnson Project. Objective, maximize the political prospects of Boris Johnson. Method, whatever it takes. It has gone swimmingly for the last 2 years and right now it looks like hitting the bulls-eye on Dec 12th.
    Tbh I think lots of people have given up caring what sort of Brexit we have, just need to get any sort of Brexit over the line now. There'll be a big national swing to soft Brexit once we're there I think as nearly all remainers and plenty of leavers will want to go in that direction.

    Rejoin/close relationship/hard Brexit polls will be key.
  • Guido is reporting that Boris is ditching the corporation tax cuts.

    He has postponed further cuts to corporation tax saving 6 billion per year

    Yep, he is pulling back on another lie he told during his leadership campaign.

    Did he mention Corporation Tax in the leadership contest specifically? I'm sure you're right but I don't recall that.

    On its merits it's a reasonable move. The Corporation Tax rate is already low enough to be attractive for inward investment. Sorting out the utter dog's breakfast of business rates, which have economically distorting effects and are really quite arbitrary, should be a much higher priority.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,184
    kinabalu said:

    nichomar said:

    I find it highly amusing when the usual people start going on about the Lib Dems being the tories little helpers when the real little helper is Corbyn leaving Johnson with no need to say anything except corbyn would be a disaster.

    Who I'll blame for a Boris Johnson majority will be the people who vote for him. There's nothing forcing them to do it.
    Well, there is. There's the prospect of Corbyn.
  • Corbyn is an embarrassment
  • Noo said:

    Good morning islamophobes.
    Especially @Philip_Thompson, you rancid little racist.

    Hello again troll, still speaking to yourself with regardings to your own Islamophobia? Are you going to keep up your pretence yesterday that all Muslims are extremists? There's over a billion decent Muslims across the globe who aren't extremists you silly trolling Islamophobe. I note again you ran away and failed to address my points and instead just keep throwing rocks.

    Noo said:

    Chris said:

    Aren't all the folk replying to 'Good morning, islamophobes' with 'Good morning whatevs' making an admission?

    LOL no. Just feeding the troll.
    But of course if people were behaving like that when the topic was antisemitism, you'd all be up in arms about what a disgrace it is.

    The unstated assumption is often that prejudice against Jews is wrong but prejudice against Muslims is only natural considering.
    No I would not. The topic here is politics and it is @Noo trolling to change the topic.

    If someone came here and started every day saying good morning antisemites I'd think they were trolling too.

    If I thought everyone on a site I was going to was an antisemite then I wouldn't greet people like that, I'd stop going to that site.
    I don't think everyone on this site is islamophobic. But you definitely are.
    Comparing Muslims to the KKK is like comparing Jews to Nazis. It's not acceptable in any world.

    This place has an islamophobia problem. Until that is addressed, I will continue to call it out.
    I didn't compare Muslims to KKK. I compared extremism to extremism.

    In your eyes does Muslim = Burqa? Because it doesn't to me.
    In your eyes does KKK = Christian? Because it doesn't to me.

    I would never compare all Muslims to the KKK but I'm happy to contrast hateful extremists with them.

    If you are pandering some sort of notion that Muslims wear burqas then you are Islamophobic. I believe there's probably a billion plus Muslims across the globe who do not.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Boom - Job done for Johnson from his CBI meeting this morning

    General election 2019: PM puts corporation cuts on hold to help fund NHS
  • On topic: It really is striking how the LibDems are failing to capitalise on what should be an ideal strategic scenario for them. Choosing Jo Swinson was a mistake, and it's really hurting them now.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Pulpstar said:

    Boom - Job done for Johnson from his CBI meeting this morning

    General election 2019: PM puts corporation cuts on hold to help fund NHS

    I thought he was awful a very poor speaker
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    On topic: It really is striking how the LibDems are failing to capitalise on what should be an ideal strategic scenario for them. Choosing Jo Swinson was a mistake, and it's really hurting them now.

    I think the contradiction they're facing is that to maximize remainia prospects they essentially need to turn into the pro EU liberal conservative party (A direction Ed Davey hinted at the weekend with his promise to 'moderate' either party) but it would horrify their more left activist base and membership.
  • nichomar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Boom - Job done for Johnson from his CBI meeting this morning

    General election 2019: PM puts corporation cuts on hold to help fund NHS

    I thought he was awful a very poor speaker
    He was well received and contrast that with the complete silence of Corbyn's nonsense

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    nichomar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Boom - Job done for Johnson from his CBI meeting this morning

    General election 2019: PM puts corporation cuts on hold to help fund NHS

    I thought he was awful a very poor speaker
    No idea how he spoke, judging this by the headlines generated.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Boom - Job done for Johnson from his CBI meeting this morning

    General election 2019: PM puts corporation cuts on hold to help fund NHS

    Good politics (reverse ferret needed on any pb posts about corporation tax cuts raising more money, increasing jobs and making your lager taste better).
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,211

    On topic: It really is striking how the LibDems are failing to capitalise on what should be an ideal strategic scenario for them. Choosing Jo Swinson was a mistake, and it's really hurting them now.

    If only she had followed your grooming counsel.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Corbyn is an embarrassment


    He is delivering his speech quite well how is he an embarrassment? Or do you mean generally
  • JohnO said:

    On topic: It really is striking how the LibDems are failing to capitalise on what should be an ideal strategic scenario for them. Choosing Jo Swinson was a mistake, and it's really hurting them now.

    If only she had followed your grooming counsel.
    Yes, I offered it for free. Maybe that was my mistake; management consultants have figured out that people think advice is great if they pay through the nose for it.
  • nichomar said:

    Corbyn is an embarrassment


    He is delivering his speech quite well how is he an embarrassment? Or do you mean generally
    His policies are an embarrassment
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    nichomar said:

    Corbyn is an embarrassment


    He is delivering his speech quite well how is he an embarrassment? Or do you mean generally
    The speech was good. But the man, his team and the policies are extreme and if let in would destroy the country which is why we need Boris' One Nation Conservatives!

  • On topic, it is worth pointing out that let's say there are 75 new Conservative MPs (50 from gains, 25 from replacements in existing seats), then some of those will probably end up joining the ERG. Certainly you would expect new Conservative MPs in places like Stoke to be very Brexity. That said they may be a bit more pliable than existing MPs like Bill Cash as many will be hoping to get a PPS job in due course.
  • Does anyone think there's any chance the High Court today will side with Swinson and Sturgeon regarding their being excluded from the debate tomorrow? Presumably this can't go before the Supreme Court tomorrow [if it even would go that far] so this is as far as it will go in the courts?
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    It looks like it has completely blown up for LDs!

    Do you think that maybe CON will now hold Richmond Park?

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Has there been any polling giving the following four options ?

    i) There should be a second referendum and I would vote to leave.
    ii) There should not be a second referendum, but if there were I would vote to leave.
    iii) There should be a second referendum and I would vote to remain.
    iv) There should not be a second referendum, but if there were I would vote to remain.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Boom - Job done for Johnson from his CBI meeting this morning

    General election 2019: PM puts corporation cuts on hold to help fund NHS

    Seems like they are trying to hard to woo Labour voters, will upset some and the NHS pledge is pretty meaningless. Why announce such a policy at the CBI ffs??
  • Does anyone think there's any chance the High Court today will side with Swinson and Sturgeon regarding their being excluded from the debate tomorrow?

    No.
  • tlg86 said:

    This all assumes that the new Tory MPs are the "right sort" as viewed by OGH (and others).

    Yup, which they won't be. They'll be exceedingly ERGey.

    He should have written the headline the other way around: A 14% CON lead would give the ERG the margin to stuff Johnson.
    I actually wonder how long the Tories will stick with Boris after he's secured them their majority (assuming he does). Not long is my guess. They won't want some doddery old bumbler erring and umming around the place when a driven, committed, tooth-and-claw ultra is what they crave. Boris is merely a means to an end and will soon be a footnote.
    You can not be serious.

    Johnson having won the mayoralty twice, the Brexit referendum, an overwhelming majority in the leadership election and the General Election majority that eluded May [if it happens] would be completely secure in his job.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    I’ve been having a think as to the lower Labour numbers and if I can tally up the on the ground experience.

    I have been around a few constituencies over the weekend. In my own (Thornbury and Yate, Tory man 8000 over LD) there seems to be the usual split between LD placards in the towns and Tory placards on farmland. Not seen a single labour or green (stood down Remain all) and last time there were quite a few labour placards and they got 6000 votes.
    I think there is an outside chance of a Libdem victory.

    I’ve also been round a bit of the Stroud constituency and saw 3 labour placards and 2 green. This seems well down on last time.

    In Bristol NW much talked about yesterday there seemed to be little in the way of placards. In most cities you would think it would be clearly Tory - Stoke Bishop and Westbury on Trym are some of the nicest areas in Bristol both bordering on the Downs. Avonmouth, Shirehampton, Southmead and Lockleaze are working class areas, but much closer to North Bristol employment areas, and much more prosperous than the working class areas in East and South Bristol. Henleaze and Horfield are attractive suburbs with good links to City Centre. The thing for me that would trend this area Labour is the position in between the two Universities and near Southmead hospital but close to the Children’s hospital. You are likely to see a lot of their staff in this area. There are also Bristol Uni halls of residence in Stoke Bishop. It is only my impression but this area seemed to be heavily Labour placarded last time.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    sirclive said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Boom - Job done for Johnson from his CBI meeting this morning

    General election 2019: PM puts corporation cuts on hold to help fund NHS

    Seems like they are trying to hard to woo Labour voters, will upset some and the NHS pledge is pretty meaningless. Why announce such a policy at the CBI ffs??
    Looks like he's standing up to big business. Makes perfect sense to me.
  • sirclive said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Boom - Job done for Johnson from his CBI meeting this morning

    General election 2019: PM puts corporation cuts on hold to help fund NHS

    Seems like they are trying to hard to woo Labour voters, will upset some and the NHS pledge is pretty meaningless. Why announce such a policy at the CBI ffs??
    If you are postponing a corporation tax cut the CBI is the best place to announce it
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,184
    Pulpstar said:

    On topic: It really is striking how the LibDems are failing to capitalise on what should be an ideal strategic scenario for them. Choosing Jo Swinson was a mistake, and it's really hurting them now.

    I think the contradiction they're facing is that to maximize remainia prospects they essentially need to turn into the pro EU liberal conservative party (A direction Ed Davey hinted at the weekend with his promise to 'moderate' either party) but it would horrify their more left activist base and membership.
    Maybe, contrary to expectations, it just turns out that this isn't the ideal opportunity for the LDs that many of us thought it was.
    Maybe there is too much fear of the 'wrong' outcome for people to feel able to vote for a third party. Maybe the ideal situation for the LDs was actually 2005 - disillusion with the main two parties but little outright terror of them.

    That said, a few policies beyond overturning the result of the referendum might have helped.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,865
    edited November 2019
    Cookie said:

    Well, there is. There's the prospect of Corbyn.

    He's doing the same as Johnson. Offering himself and his policies to the electorate. He can't rationally be blamed for doing that. Several others are too and quite rightly. Our democracy depends on it. If a person votes for Johnson, as opposed to any of the alternatives, this is a choice being made. If enough of them do it the consequence - again quite rightly - will be a big Johnson majority. And the people who have made that choice will be wholly and directly responsible. This is how I look at it.
  • JohnO said:

    On topic: It really is striking how the LibDems are failing to capitalise on what should be an ideal strategic scenario for them. Choosing Jo Swinson was a mistake, and it's really hurting them now.

    If only she had followed your grooming counsel.
    Most lady politicians around the world seem to have quite short hair. Maybe it is a reaction to helicopters.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    I’ve been having a think as to the lower Labour numbers and if I can tally up the on the ground experience.

    I have been around a few constituencies over the weekend. In my own (Thornbury and Yate, Tory man 8000 over LD) there seems to be the usual split between LD placards in the towns and Tory placards on farmland. Not seen a single labour or green (stood down Remain all) and last time there were quite a few labour placards and they got 6000 votes.
    I think there is an outside chance of a Libdem victory.

    I’ve also been round a bit of the Stroud constituency and saw 3 labour placards and 2 green. This seems well down on last time.

    In Bristol NW much talked about yesterday there seemed to be little in the way of placards. In most cities you would think it would be clearly Tory - Stoke Bishop and Westbury on Trym are some of the nicest areas in Bristol both bordering on the Downs. Avonmouth, Shirehampton, Southmead and Lockleaze are working class areas, but much closer to North Bristol employment areas, and much more prosperous than the working class areas in East and South Bristol. Henleaze and Horfield are attractive suburbs with good links to City Centre. The thing for me that would trend this area Labour is the position in between the two Universities and near Southmead hospital but close to the Children’s hospital. You are likely to see a lot of their staff in this area. There are also Bristol Uni halls of residence in Stoke Bishop. It is only my impression but this area seemed to be heavily Labour placarded last time.

    Placard count round near me, 1 Lee Rowley in Killamarsh. That's all I've seen so far.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited November 2019
    felix said:

    Question - How do I get to the full UK Polling report - the site I now get is missing all the very useful constituencey blogs.

    You mean this?

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide

    As you can see it hasn't been updated since 2015, there's some commentary still but not as busy as previously.

This discussion has been closed.