Labour: business and the tories want to stop us giving you free stuff.
It does feel to me one promise a bit too far beyond plausible but I doubt it will horrify that many. - we know people are generally in favour or neutral on most such plans in theory at least. Though as I noted previously it's the first GE story I've had spontaneously mentioned to me , so its grabbed attention for better and worse.
Free broadband. Bloody brilliant as a headline grabber/dead cat.
Total cut through imho.
Doubt the majority of voters will focus on detail or worry about the idea that the state under Corbyn, Pidcock and Seamus could control access to the Internet.
I have a feeling the weekend polls will show an increased Tory lead, like panel base.
Certainly wouldn't be surprised...
At what point have they squeezed the BREX sponge dry and will need votes from lab and libd to advance further in 40’s? Is 43 the ceiling where It needs polls with lab minus Lib minus for Tory plus?
At a guess about 45%.
Of course, if the Tories stay anywhere in the 40s then Labour needs the Lib Dem vote share to collapse if they're going to have a reasonable chance of securing another Hung Parliament.
That second point I totally disagree with. Labour and Libdems tactically swapping votes on the day doesn’t mean libdem vote collapse, it’s actually swap and exchange, lab still on 34 ld still on 16, but both punch above that in seats due to TV.
On topic: Isn't the most striking thing about these numbers that they don't seem to have changed much during the year? There doesn't seem to be any great trend towards buyer's remorse here.
In any case it's the wrong question. It's perfectly possible, indeed very reasonable, for people to hold the view that it was the wrong decision but should be implemented because that was the decision taken by the electorate. It's also perfectly possible to hold the view that we can't in any case go back to the status quo ante.
But we can. There will always be half the electorate upset. Both sides feel cheated. They lied their way to victory. Our side lost in a skewed contest.
A contest massively skewed in your favour. Which just shows how rotten your product was.
Though I bow to no one in my loathing of Boris Johnson I would settle for him being PM in exchange for getting rid of Brexit. I bet he would too.
Correspondingly, as a Leaver, I would happily accept Brexit being revoked and cancelled in exchange for all risk of Corbyn and his Marxist colleagues gaining power being permanently removed. As an added exchange I would happily accept the Euro and schengen as well to seal the deal.
What a mess.
Lol! That's a deal. How do we set it up?
God knows. I wish I knew. It can only happen with tories just why of majority with Lib Dem’s insisting on new referendum for long term C&S. But there’s far too many moving parts with that.
Getting Labour back to normality. I honestly have no idea.
Lib Dem’s becoming official opposition to Tories the only way I think. Which won’t happen.
Labour: business and the tories want to stop us giving you free stuff.
It does feel to me one promise a bit too far beyond plausible but I doubt it will horrify that many. Though as I noted previously it's the first GE story I've had spontaneously mentioned to me , so its grabbed attention for better and worse.
Attention is king. It's been the golden rule of advertising since immemorial. It seems to work in politics, too. It doesn't have to be pleasant. Radio adverts are often annoying not because advertisers don't know what they're doing, but because they do.
The broadband pledge is madness from Jez. Appeals to those already voting for him - suspect that Labours internal polling is dire if they are throwing this Hail Mary.
There was a rumour circulating the other day to the effect that private Labour polling showed that the Lib Dems have a shot at defeating Emily Thornberry in Islington South and Finsbury.
It's amusing because were Labour to win the election, some of those Conservatives would be clawing to stay in the EU just to put a stop to Corbyn's plans. It would require a heart of stone and brain of wet bread not to smirk at that thought.
Heart of stone? Smirk? I would laugh so hard I would likely have a rupture....
Labour: business and the tories want to stop us giving you free stuff.
It does feel to me one promise a bit too far beyond plausible but I doubt it will horrify that many. - we know people are generally in favour or neutral on most such plans in theory at least. Though as I noted previously it's the first GE story I've had spontaneously mentioned to me , so its grabbed attention for better and worse.
Free broadband. Bloody brilliant as a headline grabber/dead cat.
Total cut through imho.
Doubt the majority of voters will focus on detail or worry about the idea that the state under Corbyn, Pidcock and Seamus could control access to the Internet.
Well the person who mentioned it to me did think it was the most ridiculous promise theyd ever heard (which is slightly harsh), but getting through to be noticed is impressive enough as Noo notes, and not all will react that way.
Labour: business and the tories want to stop us giving you free stuff.
It does feel to me one promise a bit too far beyond plausible but I doubt it will horrify that many. - we know people are generally in favour or neutral on most such plans in theory at least. Though as I noted previously it's the first GE story I've had spontaneously mentioned to me , so its grabbed attention for better and worse.
Free broadband. Bloody brilliant as a headline grabber/dead cat.
Total cut through imho.
Doubt the majority of voters will focus on detail or worry about the idea that the state under Corbyn, Pidcock and Seamus could control access to the Internet.
They will when the other side emphasises that other countries with that sort of control use it to cut off Social Media.
On topic: Isn't the most striking thing about these numbers that they don't seem to have changed much during the year? There doesn't seem to be any great trend towards buyer's remorse here.
In any case it's the wrong question. It's perfectly possible, indeed very reasonable, for people to hold the view that it was the wrong decision but should be implemented because that was the decision taken by the electorate. It's also perfectly possible to hold the view that we can't in any case go back to the status quo ante.
But we can. There will always be half the electorate upset. Both sides feel cheated. They lied their way to victory. Our side lost in a skewed contest.
Lies were pointed out at the time.
And told by both sides. Just as both sides broke spending rules.
Unfortunately, what the referendum really showed and has gone on showing since is just how utterly broken our political system is. It has basically spewed out a load of problems that have been building up since at least Blair - the spin, the cronyism, the incompetence, the hubris and the moral cowardice, coupled with politicians who are, at best, fifth rate and mostly unemployable. And it showed they had infiltrated everywhere.
In showing this it may be doing us a service in the long run, but in the meanwhile it’s a horrible experience to live through.
I think the Lib Dems are likely to underperform their final polling .
For two reasons , some Tories getting cold feet and the same for ex Labour .
I think they’d do well to poll 12% on Election Day . If they manage 20 seats I think that should be classed as okay for them , I never bought these seat projections that had them hitting 40 +.
I do think their revoke policy hasn’t worked , they were always the strongest Remain party and didn’t need to go that far .
The Tories really should be winning this election with ease , they have everything in their favour , if they can’t manage a majority then that would be a massive shock .
Labour need a series of things to align to have any hope of stopping a Tory majority . Big turnout in younger people and Remainers , lots of tactical voting and some serious missteps by Johnson .
Anyway, easy to trump this freebie. I'd suggest free tampons. A much cheaper freebie, and more in tune with the zeitgeist, if we're doing competitive bidding on madcap freebies.
Labour: business and the tories want to stop us giving you free stuff.
It does feel to me one promise a bit too far beyond plausible but I doubt it will horrify that many. - we know people are generally in favour or neutral on most such plans in theory at least. Though as I noted previously it's the first GE story I've had spontaneously mentioned to me , so its grabbed attention for better and worse.
Free broadband. Bloody brilliant as a headline grabber/dead cat.
Total cut through imho.
Doubt the majority of voters will focus on detail or worry about the idea that the state under Corbyn, Pidcock and Seamus could control access to the Internet.
They will when the other side emphasises that other countries with that sort of control use it to cut off Social Media.
But will the public notice that kind of detail argument?
A lot can happen in a month though. We're making - again - certain predictions at the beginning of the campaign. The Tories seem to be convinced they're going to win and I think that broadband pledge caught them off guard.
With the amount of postal voting that is going to happen this time, I'd say a lot is going to have to happen in the next two weeks.....
PB hive mind. Do election leaflets for the royal mail unaddressed candidate mail drop need a "region" on or just constituency?
Presumably the "region" referred to in the Royal Mail documentation is an electoral region for elections that have them; a General Election has only constituencies.
It’s more likely to refer to RM’s managerial geography
I was referring to the Election Postage Documentation for candidates, which has a box labelled "Constituency/Region". I assume this is why Freggles was asking.
In short yes, it should only be constituency for a GE.
Anyway, easy to trump this freebie. I'd suggest free tampons. A much cheaper freebie, and more in tune with the zeitgeist, if we're doing competitive bidding on madcap freebies.
Labour: business and the tories want to stop us giving you free stuff.
It does feel to me one promise a bit too far beyond plausible but I doubt it will horrify that many. - we know people are generally in favour or neutral on most such plans in theory at least. Though as I noted previously it's the first GE story I've had spontaneously mentioned to me , so its grabbed attention for better and worse.
Free broadband. Bloody brilliant as a headline grabber/dead cat.
Total cut through imho.
Doubt the majority of voters will focus on detail or worry about the idea that the state under Corbyn, Pidcock and Seamus could control access to the Internet.
They will when the other side emphasises that other countries with that sort of control use it to cut off Social Media.
But will the public notice that kind of detail argument?
I suspect the detail will be missed. Tories need it to seem implausible, while labour will hope their intention to shower everything with cash sticks in the mind positively even if people think not all they promise is plausible.
Labour: business and the tories want to stop us giving you free stuff.
It does feel to me one promise a bit too far beyond plausible but I doubt it will horrify that many. - we know people are generally in favour or neutral on most such plans in theory at least. Though as I noted previously it's the first GE story I've had spontaneously mentioned to me , so its grabbed attention for better and worse.
Free broadband. Bloody brilliant as a headline grabber/dead cat.
Total cut through imho.
Doubt the majority of voters will focus on detail or worry about the idea that the state under Corbyn, Pidcock and Seamus could control access to the Internet.
I’m suspecting it’s flawed both technically and commercially but a huge political success for stealing votes in a campaign. It’s not been handled very Well by Tories when you have Corbyn saying it’s about the productivity of global Britain going forward, important to connect up all the country leave no one behind, and not even that radical the rest of the world are doing it, and not effectively countered or challenged on any of those points.
Free broadband might be the 2nd defining issue of this campaign, in the history books (after Brexit obviously). It has opened a debate about what the state should provide to citizens as a right, arguments about private investment etc etc.
Labour: business and the tories want to stop us giving you free stuff.
It does feel to me one promise a bit too far beyond plausible but I doubt it will horrify that many. - we know people are generally in favour or neutral on most such plans in theory at least. Though as I noted previously it's the first GE story I've had spontaneously mentioned to me , so its grabbed attention for better and worse.
Free broadband. Bloody brilliant as a headline grabber/dead cat.
Total cut through imho.
Doubt the majority of voters will focus on detail or worry about the idea that the state under Corbyn, Pidcock and Seamus could control access to the Internet.
I’m suspecting it’s flawed both technically and commercially but a huge political success for stealing votes in a campaign. It’s not been handled very Well by Tories when you have Corbyn saying it’s about the productivity of global Britain going forward, important to connect up all the country leave no one behind, and not even that radical the rest of the world are doing it, and not effectively countered or challenged on any of those points.
I've not been to the pub this evening, but I strongly suspect that broadband has been the big cut through.
My prediction: Everyone will have forgotten about nationalised broadband in a fortnight's time. My evidence: who remembers what Labour were proposing sloshing billions at a week ago?
Labour: business and the tories want to stop us giving you free stuff.
It does feel to me one promise a bit too far beyond plausible but I doubt it will horrify that many. - we know people are generally in favour or neutral on most such plans in theory at least. Though as I noted previously it's the first GE story I've had spontaneously mentioned to me , so its grabbed attention for better and worse.
Free broadband. Bloody brilliant as a headline grabber/dead cat.
Total cut through imho.
Doubt the majority of voters will focus on detail or worry about the idea that the state under Corbyn, Pidcock and Seamus could control access to the Internet.
I’m suspecting it’s flawed both technically and commercially but a huge political success for stealing votes in a campaign. It’s not been handled very Well by Tories when you have Corbyn saying it’s about the productivity of global Britain going forward, important to connect up all the country leave no one behind, and not even that radical the rest of the world are doing it, and not effectively countered or challenged on any of those points.
They've handled it incredibly badly - which is surprising.
They've almost played the £350m game. They've attacked the policy but not proposed anything, so people say "well it's crap now, what will you do"?
And crickets.
This is just like tuition fees.
Labour has for one day, got the debate off Brexit. I wonder if they can continue it.
My prediction: Everyone will have forgotten about nationalised broadband in a fortnight's time. My evidence: who remembers what Labour were proposing sloshing billions at a week ago?
The broadband pledge is madness from Jez. Appeals to those already voting for him - suspect that Labours internal polling is dire if they are throwing this Hail Mary.
There was a rumour circulating the other day to the effect that private Labour polling showed that the Lib Dems have a shot at defeating Emily Thornberry in Islington South and Finsbury.
Labour: business and the tories want to stop us giving you free stuff.
It does feel to me one promise a bit too far beyond plausible but I doubt it will horrify that many. - we know people are generally in favour or neutral on most such plans in theory at least. Though as I noted previously it's the first GE story I've had spontaneously mentioned to me , so its grabbed attention for better and worse.
Free broadband. Bloody brilliant as a headline grabber/dead cat.
Total cut through imho.
Doubt the majority of voters will focus on detail or worry about the idea that the state under Corbyn, Pidcock and Seamus could control access to the Internet.
I’m suspecting it’s flawed both technically and commercially but a huge political success for stealing votes in a campaign. It’s not been handled very Well by Tories when you have Corbyn saying it’s about the productivity of global Britain going forward, important to connect up all the country leave no one behind, and not even that radical the rest of the world are doing it, and not effectively countered or challenged on any of those points.
I've not been to the pub this evening, but I strongly suspect that broadband has been the big cut through.
It is on Guido's daily campaign summary, which despite the source is actually pretty good at listing each parties major point of the day and a cut through but of news.
Labour: business and the tories want to stop us giving you free stuff.
It does feel to me one promise a bit too far beyond plausible but I doubt it will horrify that many. - we know people are generally in favour or neutral on most such plans in theory at least. Though as I noted previously it's the first GE story I've had spontaneously mentioned to me , so its grabbed attention for better and worse.
Free broadband. Bloody brilliant as a headline grabber/dead cat.
Total cut through imho.
Doubt the majority of voters will focus on detail or worry about the idea that the state under Corbyn, Pidcock and Seamus could control access to the Internet.
They will when the other side emphasises that other countries with that sort of control use it to cut off Social Media.
Are you worried that when the revolution comes, your broadband line will be the first against the wire-cutters?
My prediction: Everyone will have forgotten about nationalised broadband in a fortnight's time. My evidence: who remembers what Labour were proposing sloshing billions at a week ago?
You may be right but possibly only because some NHS disaster/crisis has taken centre stage.
I think the polls will tighten over next week or so.
I have a feeling the weekend polls will show an increased Tory lead, like panel base.
Certainly wouldn't be surprised...
At what point have they squeezed the BREX sponge dry and will need votes from lab and libd to advance further in 40’s? Is 43 the ceiling where It needs polls with lab minus Lib minus for Tory plus?
At a guess about 45%.
Of course, if the Tories stay anywhere in the 40s then Labour needs the Lib Dem vote share to collapse if they're going to have a reasonable chance of securing another Hung Parliament.
That second point I totally disagree with. Labour and Libdems tactically swapping votes on the day doesn’t mean libdem vote collapse, it’s actually swap and exchange, lab still on 34 ld still on 16, but both punch above that in seats due to TV.
That scenario makes heroic assumptions about tactical voting. You'd have to have a lot of Remain-leaning voters simultaneously dumping the Lib Dems and backing Labour in the North, and dumping Labour and backing the Lib Dems in the South.
Take away all the voters who have no interest in or knowledge of tactical voting, are tribally loyal to one party (especially on the Labour side,) or who won't switch because they loathe the alternative party more than they loathe Brexit, and I'm not at all sure you've got the numbers there to neutralise a significant Conservative lead.
My prediction: Everyone will have forgotten about nationalised broadband in a fortnight's time. My evidence: who remembers what Labour were proposing sloshing billions at a week ago?
Are they still going to nationalize the water companies & railways?
Free broadband might be the 2nd defining issue of this campaign, in the history books (after Brexit obviously). It has opened a debate about what the state should provide to citizens as a right, arguments about private investment etc etc.
I would say that logically if broadband is free and universal why would any utility be charged for? Why not make water, gas, and electric "free" as well? Surely those are more important than broadband? What next? Food and shelter maybe? Transport? Shouldn't the state provide all necessities "free" to all?
Free broadband might be the 2nd defining issue of this campaign, in the history books (after Brexit obviously). It has opened a debate about what the state should provide to citizens as a right, arguments about private investment etc etc.
You mean have we become too lazy with our liassez faire? How come we are only on 10% when competitors nearer 100%. What’s lesson to be learned?
I think I can answer it. Culture. The japs have never been communist, but a bit of state oomph has never been a dirty business for them like it has become in the dryer more puritanical UK since thatcher.
It’s particularly amusing to see Tories claiming that Labour’s latest broadband proposals would breach EU state aid rules when the whole point of Brexit is not to comply with such rules.
It’s not as if they were not warned that Brexit would enable Corbyn - both by making his victory more likely and removing any restraints on his government.
embers and voters want that), it is not absurd to point out (assuming they are right) that they could notpporters from liking the plan. If Labour think you could do it within the EU, that's different.
It'sput a stop to Corbyn's plans. It would require a heart of stone and brain of wet bread not to smirk at that thought.
Yes, that makes it amusing, and the point that Brexiting would enable things many Brexiteers really do not want, however the quote wasmitted to Brexiting yet, and may not ever be, it hardly matters if the pontly ridiculous about Brexiteers not wanting to comply with the rules of the EU also not wanting to take some actions that would become available. Just because Brexit enables certain options doesn't mean anyone who backs it is ridiculous for not wanting some of those options.
I really don’t think remainers understand how the average Leaver thinks. I won’t speak for them all, but the EU being able to stop Corbyn from doing something he’s been elected to do is yet another reason for me to want to leave. Even though I bitterly dislike Corbyn’s agenda.
Part of being free and believing in democracy is understanding that sometimes someone is in power who does things you dislike, or even hate, and that’s ok. The freedom is the real prize.
Labours madness has actually made me appreciate why the EU is looked at positively in Europe and fundamentally differently in the UK.
The overwhelming majority of EU States have either spawned totalitarian regimes or lived and suffered under them. Unrestrained national governments are therefore distrusted, subconsciously or indeed overtly.
The EU is regarded as a braking mechanism to prevent renewed extremism, economic or political.
The UK has never lived under extremism so we don’t look at the EU in the same way.
With Corbyn running around I actually want as many EU rules applied and enforced to stop and neuter him if ever he assumed power. The EU, ironically and completely adversely to my reasoning for voting to leave, would be the only guarantor of the rights and freedoms I thought the EU were undermining.
Nationalised broadband is a slightly madder reheat of a 2017 proposal to spaff billions on broadband, which like everyone else I had completely forgotten about.
The main difference is that they've now gone back to the 1983 manifesto:
The 1983 manifesto envisages a "national, broadband network" to carry a "wide range of new telecommunications services" and "greater variety in the provision of television".
But, it adds, this important new system must be "under firm public control", with the job of building it handed exclusively to "publicly-owned British Telecommunications".
My prediction: Everyone will have forgotten about nationalised broadband in a fortnight's time. My evidence: who remembers what Labour were proposing sloshing billions at a week ago?
Are they still going to nationalize the water companies & railways?
Rail, mail and water according to the leaflet I received.
Hopefully the fact it was a Friday evening means not many were in there and those that were got out.
If it had broken out at 2am tomorrow...
Ah.
First question: is everyone safe?
Second question: was it the cladding again?
If one believed in God one might almost be tempted to suggest that the countenance of the Almighty does not shine favourably upon our Prime Minister.
Here is a list of the Ten Commandments.
You shall have no other gods before Me. You shall make no idols. You shall not take the name of the Lord your God in vain. Keep the Sabbath day holy. Honor your father and your mother. You shall not murder. You shall not commit adultery. You shall not steal. You shall not bear false witness against your neighbor. You shall not covet.
Name two Johnson hasn’t broken.
Although that said, naming one Corbyn hasn’t broken is hard work...
Labour: business and the tories want to stop us giving you free stuff.
It does feel to me one promise a bit too far beyond plausible but I doubt it will horrify that many. - we know people are generally in favour or neutral on most such plans in theory at least. Though as I noted previously it's the first GE story I've had spontaneously mentioned to me , so its grabbed attention for better and worse.
Free broadband. Bloody brilliant as a headline grabber/dead cat.
Total cut through imho.
Doubt the majority of voters will focus on detail or worry about the idea that the state under Corbyn, Pidcock and Seamus could control access to the Internet.
I’m suspecting it’s flawed both technically and commercially but a huge political success for stealing votes in a campaign. It’s not been handled very Well by Tories when you have Corbyn saying it’s about the productivity of global Britain going forward, important to connect up all the country leave no one behind, and not even that radical the rest of the world are doing it, and not effectively countered or challenged on any of those points.
I've not been to the pub this evening, but I strongly suspect that broadband has been the big cut through.
And that cut through will not be entirely unhelpful to the Conservatives (although I agree it should stimulate the Labour drones):this feels like the moment Labour's economic policy crossed into Wizard of Oz fantasy land in a really obvious way, and a lot of Remainer Tories are going to be wondering whether holding a grudge about Brexit is going to be worth waking up to Venezuela on December 13th. I expect the Tories to squeeze a couple of points of juice out of the Lib Dem total.
Nationalised broadband is a slightly madder reheat of a 2017 proposal to spaff billions on broadband, which like everyone else I had completely forgotten about.
The main difference is that they've now gone back to the 1983 manifesto:
The 1983 manifesto envisages a "national, broadband network" to carry a "wide range of new telecommunications services" and "greater variety in the provision of television".
But, it adds, this important new system must be "under firm public control", with the job of building it handed exclusively to "publicly-owned British Telecommunications".
I wonder if they are going to ban self-driving trains again....that had to be the most bonkers policy in 2017. The DLR would have to have a "driver" sit there.
Labour: business and the tories want to stop us giving you free stuff.
It does feel to me one promise a bit too far beyond plausible but I doubt it will horrify that many. - we know people are generally in favour or neutral on most such plans in theory at least. Though as I noted previously it's the first GE story I've had spontaneously mentioned to me , so its grabbed attention for better and worse.
Free broadband. Bloody brilliant as a headline grabber/dead cat.
Total cut through imho.
Doubt the majority of voters will focus on detail or worry about the idea that the state under Corbyn, Pidcock and Seamus could control access to the Internet.
I’m suspecting it’s flawed both technically and commercially but a huge political success for stealing votes in a campaign. It’s not been handled very Well by Tories when you have Corbyn saying it’s about the productivity of global Britain going forward, important to connect up all the country leave no one behind, and not even that radical the rest of the world are doing it, and not effectively countered or challenged on any of those points.
I've not been to the pub this evening, but I strongly suspect that broadband has been the big cut through.
And that cut through will not be entirely unhelpful to the Conservatives (although I agree it should stimulate the Labour drones):this feels like the moment Labour's economic policy crossed into Wizard of Oz fantasy land in a really obvious way, and a lot of Remainer Tories are going to be wondering whether holding a grudge about Brexit is going to be worth waking up to Venezuela on December 13th. I expect the Tories to squeeze a couple of points of juice out of the Lib Dem total.
That only works if the Tories are promising sensible economic policy. They aren't, they proposing increasing the deficit and splashing out.
At that point, the numbers are irrelevant.
We saw this in 2015 with austerity. Labour tried to play austerity lite and they failed. Now the Tories are playing Labour lite with spending.
I have a feeling the weekend polls will show an increased Tory lead, like panel base.
Certainly wouldn't be surprised...
At what point have they squeezed the BREX sponge dry and will need votes from lab and libd to advance further in 40’s? Is 43 the ceiling where It needs polls with lab minus Lib minus for Tory plus?
At a guess about 45%.
Of course, if the Tories stay anywhere in the 40s then Labour needs the Lib Dem vote share to collapse if they're going to have a reasonable chance of securing another Hung Parliament.
That second point I totally disagree with. Labour and Libdems tactically swapping votes on the day doesn’t mean libdem vote collapse, it’s actually swap and exchange, lab still on 34 ld still on 16, but both punch above that in seats due to TV.
That scenario makes heroic assumptions about tactical voting. You'd have to have a lot of Remain-leaning voters simultaneously dumping the Lib Dems and backing Labour in the North, and dumping Labour and backing the Lib Dems in the South.
Take away all the voters who have no interest in or knowledge of tactical voting, are tribally loyal to one party (especially on the Labour side,) or who won't switch because they loathe the alternative party more than they loathe Brexit, and I'm not at all sure you've got the numbers there to neutralise a significant Conservative lead.
Well that’s why it’s so interesting 🙂. We don’t know the degree or impact of remain TV. But if polls show lab 34 or 33 and ld 15 or 16 Tories have to fear the worst.
If anything the last couple of weeks it’s feeling labour are firming up what you call tribal areas targeted by Tories and farage?
Labour: business and the tories want to stop us giving you free stuff.
It does feel to me one promise a bit too far beyond plausible but I doubt it will horrify that many. - we know people are generally in favour or neutral on most such plans in theory at least. Though as I noted previously it's the first GE story I've had spontaneously mentioned to me , so its grabbed attention for better and worse.
Free broadband. Bloody brilliant as a headline grabber/dead cat.
Total cut through imho.
Doubt the majority of voters will focus on detail or worry about the idea that the state under Corbyn, Pidcock and Seamus could control access to the Internet.
I’m suspecting it’s flawed both technically and commercially but a huge political success for stealing votes in a campaign. It’s not been handled very Well by Tories when you have Corbyn saying it’s about the productivity of global Britain going forward, important to connect up all the country leave no one behind, and not even that radical the rest of the world are doing it, and not effectively countered or challenged on any of those points.
I've not been to the pub this evening, but I strongly suspect that broadband has been the big cut through.
And that cut through will not be entirely unhelpful to the Conservatives (although I agree it should stimulate the Labour drones):this feels like the moment Labour's economic policy crossed into Wizard of Oz fantasy land in a really obvious way, and a lot of Remainer Tories are going to be wondering whether holding a grudge about Brexit is going to be worth waking up to Venezuela on December 13th. I expect the Tories to squeeze a couple of points of juice out of the Lib Dem total.
That only works if the Tories are promising sensible economic policy. They aren't, they proposing increasing the deficit and splashing out.
At that point, the numbers are irrelevant.
We saw this in 2015 with austerity. Labour tried to play austerity lite and they failed. Now the Tories are playing Labour lite with spending.
It won't work.
The Tories went with cloth-eared austerity in 2017 - it almost allowed Two Es to win.
My prediction: Everyone will have forgotten about nationalised broadband in a fortnight's time. My evidence: who remembers what Labour were proposing sloshing billions at a week ago?
Are they still going to nationalize the water companies & railways?
Rail, mail and water according to the leaflet I received.
How can leaflets promise when manifesto still being argued over?
Hopefully the fact it was a Friday evening means not many were in there and those that were got out.
If it had broken out at 2am tomorrow...
Ah.
First question: is everyone safe?
Second question: was it the cladding again?
If one believed in God one might almost be tempted to suggest that the countenance of the Almighty does not shine favourably upon our Prime Minister.
What is this nonsense? Boris is responsible for the construction quality of student flats in Bolton now?
The Opposition have been devoting a lot of energy in Parliament to criticising the Government's response to the problems highlighted by Grenfell. If it looks like this is the cladding again then Corbyn will be quick to capitalise.
That scenario makes heroic assumptions about tactical voting. You'd have to have a lot of Remain-leaning voters simultaneously dumping the Lib Dems and backing Labour in the North, and dumping Labour and backing the Lib Dems in the South.
Take away all the voters who have no interest in or knowledge of tactical voting, are tribally loyal to one party (especially on the Labour side,) or who won't switch because they loathe the alternative party more than they loathe Brexit, and I'm not at all sure you've got the numbers there to neutralise a significant Conservative lead.
Well that’s why it’s so interesting 🙂. We don’t know the degree or impact of remain TV. But if polls show lab 34 or 33 and ld 15 or 16 Tories have to fear the worst.
If anything the last couple of weeks it’s feeling labour are firming up what you call tribal areas targeted by Tories and farage?
Labour's vote share has been ticking gradually upwards. Being less than favourably disposed to them, I am afraid that it will continue to do so. Whether or not it actually does is the big question...
After 3 years of waste time squabbling, 100 % of the voters are fed up with Brexit. The problem there about 50% of the population wishing to leave EU no matter who wins the General Election this and everyone for the next 50 years. Pandora's Box has been open there only one way of closing it. Is to leave if doesn't work rejoin.
I think they must be keeping the big one for the manifesto launch... the return of the Closed Shop.
Good point, anyone thinking we've heard the worst ideas already is likely to be in for a shock.
Corbyn did say that the manifesto would knock our socks off, so he must be saving some real treats for us. So far we've just only had the amuse-gueules.
Labour is upticking in all polls since the election was actually called (which is actually better than 2017 I think, since the uptick then only happened when the manifesto leaked).
The Tories have gone up a bit in the last week - but I think the average is a 10 point gap.
What is not consistent, is the strength of the Tory vote. It goes from 36 to 43. Labour is quite consistently around 30.
It’s particularly amusing to see Tories claiming that Labour’s latest broadband proposals would breach EU state aid rules when the whole point of Brexit is not to comply with such rules.
It’s not as if they were not warned that Brexit would enable Corbyn - both by making his victory more likely and removing any restraints on his government.
embers and voters want that), it is not absurd to point out (assuming they are right) that they could notpporters from liking the plan. If Labour think you could do it within the EU, that's different.
It'sput a stop to Corbyn's plans. It would require a heart of stone and brain of wet bread not to smirk at that thought.
Yes, that makes it amusing, and the point that Brexiting would enable things many Brexiteers really do not want, however the quote wasmitted to Brexiting yet, and may not ever be, it hardly matters if the pontly ridiculous about Brexiteers not wanting to comply with the rules of the EU also not wanting to take some actions that would become available. Just because Brexit enables certain options doesn't mean anyone who backs it is ridiculous for not wanting some of those options.
Part of being free and believing in democracy is understanding that sometimes someone is in power who does things you dislike, or even hate, and that’s ok. The freedom is the real prize.
Labours madness has actually made me appreciate why the EU is looked at positively in Europe and fundamentally differently in the UK.
The overwhelming majority of EU States have either spawned totalitarian regimes or lived and suffered under them. Unrestrained national governments are therefore distrusted, subconsciously or indeed overtly.
The EU is regarded as a braking mechanism to prevent renewed extremism, economic or political.
The UK has never lived under extremism so we don’t look at the EU in the same way.
With Corbyn running around I actually want as many EU rules applied and enforced to stop and neuter him if ever he assumed power. The EU, ironically and completely adversely to my reasoning for voting to leave, would be the only guarantor of the rights and freedoms I thought the EU were undermining.
Ironic.
Paul told the romans what he saw on the road to Damascus and the Romans thought he was a junkie. Mushrooms or ethanol wine. Or just off his head.
I have a feeling the weekend polls will show an increased Tory lead, like panel base.
Certainly wouldn't be surprised...
At what point have they squeezed the BREX sponge dry and will need votes from lab and libd to advance further in 40’s? Is 43 the ceiling where It needs polls with lab minus Lib minus for Tory plus?
At a guess about 45%.
Of course, if the Tories stay anywhere in the 40s then Labour needs the Lib Dem vote share to collapse if they're going to have a reasonable chance of securing another Hung Parliament.
That second point I totally disagree with. Labour and Libdems tactically swapping votes on the day doesn’t mean libdem vote collapse, it’s actually swap and exchange, lab still on 34 ld still on 16, but both punch above that in seats due to TV.
That scenario makes heroic assumptions about tactical voting. You'd have to have a lot of Remain-leaning voters simultaneously dumping the Lib Dems and backing Labour in the North, and dumping Labour and backing the Lib Dems in the South.
Take away all the voters who have no interest in or knowledge of tactical voting, are tribally loyal to one party (especially on the Labour side,) or who won't switch because they loathe the alternative party more than they loathe Brexit, and I'm not at all sure you've got the numbers there to neutralise a significant Conservative lead.
Well that’s why it’s so interesting 🙂. We don’t know the degree or impact of remain TV. But if polls show lab 34 or 33 and ld 15 or 16 Tories have to fear the worst.
If anything the last couple of weeks it’s feeling labour are firming up what you call tribal areas targeted by Tories and farage?
Labour have not even started to fire up their base yet I should imagine! The Tories are the devil incarnate to many Labour inclined voters in big cities and former mining areas. To be honest I think 2017 was as good as it gets for Tories in picking off former Labour safe seats. I might be wrong but knowing this type of seat I don't envisage them suddenly embracing Tories who prioritise tax cuts for the rich at the expense of poorer voters in seats the Tories want to win.
I have a feeling the weekend polls will show an increased Tory lead, like panel base.
Certainly wouldn't be surprised...
At what point have they squeezed the BREX sponge dry and will need votes from lab and libd to advance further in 40’s? Is 43 the ceiling where It needs polls with lab minus Lib minus for Tory plus?
At a guess about 45%.
Of course, if the Tories stay anywhere in the 40s then Labour needs the Lib Dem vote share to collapse if they're going to have a reasonable chance of securing another Hung Parliament.
That second point I totally disagree with. Labour and Libdems tactically swapping votes on the day doesn’t mean libdem vote collapse, it’s actually swap and exchange, lab still on 34 ld still on 16, but both punch above that in seats due to TV.
That scenario makes heroic assumptions about tactical voting. You'd have to have a lot of Remain-leaning voters simultaneously dumping the Lib Dems and backing Labour in the North, and dumping Labour and backing the Lib Dems in the South.
Take away all the voters who have no interest in or knowledge of tactical voting, are tribally loyal to one party (especially on the Labour side,) or who won't switch because they loathe the alternative party more than they loathe Brexit, and I'm not at all sure you've got the numbers there to neutralise a significant Conservative lead.
Well that’s why it’s so interesting 🙂. We don’t know the degree or impact of remain TV. But if polls show lab 34 or 33 and ld 15 or 16 Tories have to fear the worst.
If anything the last couple of weeks it’s feeling labour are firming up what you call tribal areas targeted by Tories and farage?
Labour have not even started to fire up their base yet I should imagine! The Tories are the devil incarnate to many Labour inclined voters in big cities and former mining areas. To be honest I think 2017 was as good as it gets for Tories in picking off former Labour safe seats. I might be wrong but knowing this type of seat I don't envisage them suddenly embracing Tories who prioritise tax cuts for the rich at the expense of poorer voters in seats the Tories want to win.
Depends how much they want Brexit. Will they turn over 100 years of voting and betrayal for it?
Hopefully the fact it was a Friday evening means not many were in there and those that were got out.
If it had broken out at 2am tomorrow...
Ah.
First question: is everyone safe?
Second question: was it the cladding again?
If one believed in God one might almost be tempted to suggest that the countenance of the Almighty does not shine favourably upon our Prime Minister.
What is this nonsense? Boris is responsible for the construction quality of student flats in Bolton now?
The Opposition have been devoting a lot of energy in Parliament to criticising the Government's response to the problems highlighted by Grenfell. If it looks like this is the cladding again then Corbyn will be quick to capitalise.
That scenario makes heroic assumptions about tactical voting. You'd have to have a lot of Remain-leaning voters simultaneously dumping the Lib Dems and backing Labour in the North, and dumping Labour and backing the Lib Dems in the South.
Take away all the voters who have no interest in or knowledge of tactical voting, are tribally loyal to one party (especially on the Labour side,) or who won't switch because they loathe the alternative party more than they loathe Brexit, and I'm not at all sure you've got the numbers there to neutralise a significant Conservative lead.
Well that’s why it’s so interesting 🙂. We don’t know the degree or impact of remain TV. But if polls show lab 34 or 33 and ld 15 or 16 Tories have to fear the worst.
If anything the last couple of weeks it’s feeling labour are firming up what you call tribal areas targeted by Tories and farage?
Labour's vote share has been ticking gradually upwards. Being less than favourably disposed to them, I am afraid that it will continue to do so. Whether or not it actually does is the big question...
At some point Corbyn's shroud-waving may just backfire on him... he should be extremely careful about trying to make political capital out of this. Crucial point: this isn't council housing, and I'd be astounded if it wasn't a Labour council that signed off all the plans...
Labour: business and the tories want to stop us giving you free stuff.
It does feel to me one promise a bit too far beyond plausible but I doubt it will horrify that many. - we know people are generally in favour or neutral on most such plans in theory at least. Though as I noted previously it's the first GE story I've had spontaneously mentioned to me , so its grabbed attention for better and worse.
Free broadband. Bloody brilliant as a headline grabber/dead cat.
Total cut through imho.
Doubt the majority of voters will focus on detail or worry about the idea that the state under Corbyn, Pidcock and Seamus could control access to the Internet.
They will when the other side emphasises that other countries with that sort of control use it to cut off Social Media.
Are you worried that when the revolution comes, your broadband line will be the first against the wire-cutters?
Nope I am worried that lunatics like Corbyn would happily follow the example of China and shut down any platforms that opposed him.
And you should be worried that there are similar lunatics on the right who might get into power and do the same thing.
It works both ways. If you want to understand whether a policy is a really bad idea, imagine it in the hands of the worst political opponent you can imagine.
It's interesting at times but he repeatedly gets facts wrong ... is he meant to be an expert?!
He does say that we need a written constitution PDQ. I agree.
One of the major problems with written (or rather codified) constitution adherents is they oversell it a bit, often by suggesting some current conundrum, confusion or political argument would not be taking place if we had one and extrapolating that into an implication it removes that risk, when we know that written constitutions do not prevent conundrums, confusions or bitter political arguments about fundamental issues, procedures and rights. If it is the best approach - and while I am skeptical of that I do think elements of our system could indeed be vastly improved by an exhaustive review of them - it's still not quite the panacea that it is sometimes sold as.
Labour is upticking in all polls since the election was actually called (which is actually better than 2017 I think, since the uptick then only happened when the manifesto leaked).
The Tories have gone up a bit in the last week - but I think the average is a 10 point gap.
What is not consistent, is the strength of the Tory vote. It goes from 36 to 43. Labour is quite consistently around 30.
It wasn't like this last time, not this early on.
In 2017, Labour's position was improving from E Day-50.
I have a feeling the weekend polls will show an increased Tory lead, like panel base.
Certainly wouldn't be surprised...
At what point have they squeezed the BREX sponge dry and will need votes from lab and libd to advance further in 40’s? Is 43 the ceiling where It needs polls with lab minus Lib minus for Tory plus?
At a guess about 45%.
Of course, if the Tories stay anywhere in the 40s then Labour needs the Lib Dem vote share to collapse if they're going to have a reasonable chance of securing another Hung Parliament.
That second point I totally disagree with. Labour and Libdems tactically swapping votes on the day doesn’t mean libdem vote collapse, it’s actually swap and exchange, lab still on 34 ld still on 16, but both punch above that in seats due to TV.
That scenario makes heroic assumptions about tactical voting. You'd have to have a lot of Remain-leaning voters simultaneously dumping the Lib Dems and backing Labour in the North, and dumping Labour and backing the Lib Dems in the South.
Take away all the voters who have no interest in or knowledge of tactical voting, are tribally loyal to one party (especially on the Labour side,) or who won't switch because they loathe the alternative party more than they loathe Brexit, and I'm not at all sure you've got the numbers there to neutralise a significant Conservative lead.
Well that’s why it’s so interesting 🙂. We don’t know the degree or impact of remain TV. But if polls show lab 34 or 33 and ld 15 or 16 Tories have to fear the worst.
If anything the last couple of weeks it’s feeling labour are firming up what you call tribal areas targeted by Tories and farage?
Labour have not even started to fire up their base yet I should imagine! The Tories are the devil incarnate to many Labour inclined voters in big cities and former mining areas. To be honest I think 2017 was as good as it gets for Tories in picking off former Labour safe seats. I might be wrong but knowing this type of seat I don't envisage them suddenly embracing Tories who prioritise tax cuts for the rich at the expense of poorer voters in seats the Tories want to win.
I’d hate to find something there to argue with, but my suspicion is Midlands are Tory territory these days. Workington man may have been a mistake, Walsall woman may decide this one.
We had a Workington poll very early on another poll there may be interesting for lack of movement or movement.
Labour is upticking in all polls since the election was actually called (which is actually better than 2017 I think, since the uptick then only happened when the manifesto leaked).
The Tories have gone up a bit in the last week - but I think the average is a 10 point gap.
What is not consistent, is the strength of the Tory vote. It goes from 36 to 43. Labour is quite consistently around 30.
It wasn't like this last time, not this early on.
The Labour polling trend in 2017 was gradually upwards throughout the whole campaign period. The Tories were pretty consistently in the high 40s until the manifesto debacle, after which their trend line began to move downwards about as fast as Labour's climbed.
Labour is upticking in all polls since the election was actually called (which is actually better than 2017 I think, since the uptick then only happened when the manifesto leaked).
The Tories have gone up a bit in the last week - but I think the average is a 10 point gap.
What is not consistent, is the strength of the Tory vote. It goes from 36 to 43. Labour is quite consistently around 30.
It wasn't like this last time, not this early on.
In 2017, Labour's position was improving from E Day-50.
Labour: business and the tories want to stop us giving you free stuff.
It does feel to me one promise a bit too far beyond plausible but I doubt it will horrify that many. - we know people are generally in favour or neutral on most such plans in theory at least. Though as I noted previously it's the first GE story I've had spontaneously mentioned to me , so its grabbed attention for better and worse.
Free broadband. Bloody brilliant as a headline grabber/dead cat.
Total cut through imho.
Doubt the majority of voters will focus on detail or worry about the idea that the state under Corbyn, Pidcock and Seamus could control access to the Internet.
They will when the other side emphasises that other countries with that sort of control use it to cut off Social Media.
Are you worried that when the revolution comes, your broadband line will be the first against the wire-cutters?
Nope I am worried that lunatics like Corbyn would happily follow the example of China and shut down any platforms that opposed him.
And you should be worried that there are similar lunatics on the right who might get into power and do the same thing.
It works both ways. If you want to understand whether a policy is a really bad idea, imagine it in the hands of the worst political opponent you can imagine.
Which is why I say that if a Tory government proposed taking the country’s internet infrastructure under government control, lefties would be apoplectic beyond description.
Labour is upticking in all polls since the election was actually called (which is actually better than 2017 I think, since the uptick then only happened when the manifesto leaked).
The Tories have gone up a bit in the last week - but I think the average is a 10 point gap.
What is not consistent, is the strength of the Tory vote. It goes from 36 to 43. Labour is quite consistently around 30.
It wasn't like this last time, not this early on.
In 2017, Labour's position was improving from E Day-50.
But it already has this time around?
Improved, but now stabilized. I was countering your claim that the uptick only happened when the manifesto leaked.
I have a feeling the weekend polls will show an increased Tory lead, like panel base.
Certainly wouldn't be surprised...
At what point have they squeezed the BREX sponge dry and will need votes from lab and libd to advance further in 40’s? Is 43 the ceiling where It needs polls with lab minus Lib minus for Tory plus?
At a guess about 45%.
Of course, if the Tories stay anywhere in the 40s then Labour needs the Lib Dem vote share to collapse if they're going to have a reasonable chance of securing another Hung Parliament.
That second point I totally disagree with. Labour and Libdems tactically swapping votes on the day doesn’t mean libdem vote collapse, it’s actually swap and exchange, lab still on 34 ld still on 16, but both punch above that in seats due to TV.
That scenario makes heroic assumptions about tactical voting. You'd have to have a lot of Remain-leaning voters simultaneously dumping the Lib Dems and backing Labour in the North, and dumping Labour and backing the Lib Dems in the South.
Take away all the voters who have no interest in or knowledge of tactical voting, are tribally loyal to one party (especially on the Labour side,) or who won't switch because they loathe the alternative party more than they loathe Brexit, and I'm not at all sure you've got the numbers there to neutralise a significant Conservative lead.
Well that’s why it’s so interesting 🙂. We don’t know the degree or impact of remain TV. But if polls show lab 34 or 33 and ld 15 or 16 Tories have to fear the worst.
If anything the last couple of weeks it’s feeling labour are firming up what you call tribal areas targeted by Tories and farage?
Labour have not even started to fire up their base yet I should imagine! The Tories are the devil incarnate to many Labour inclined voters in big cities and former mining areas. To be honest I think 2017 was as good as it gets for Tories in picking off former Labour safe seats. I might be wrong but knowing this type of seat I don't envisage them suddenly embracing Tories who prioritise tax cuts for the rich at the expense of poorer voters in seats the Tories want to win.
Haven't fired up their base yet? WTF are the drones waiting for? A free bacon butty from a nationalised Greggs in the morning followed by 5 minutes of TLC from a nationalised comfort worker?
Labour: business and the tories want to stop us giving you free stuff.
It does feel to me one promise a bit too far beyond plausible but I doubt it will horrify that many. - we know people are generally in favour or neutral on most such plans in theory at least. Though as I noted previously it's the first GE story I've had spontaneously mentioned to me , so its grabbed attention for better and worse.
Free broadband. Bloody brilliant as a headline grabber/dead cat.
Labour is upticking in all polls since the election was actually called (which is actually better than 2017 I think, since the uptick then only happened when the manifesto leaked).
The Tories have gone up a bit in the last week - but I think the average is a 10 point gap.
What is not consistent, is the strength of the Tory vote. It goes from 36 to 43. Labour is quite consistently around 30.
It wasn't like this last time, not this early on.
In 2017, Labour's position was improving from E Day-50.
But it already has this time around?
Improved, but now stabilized. I was countering your claim that the uptick only happened when the manifesto leaked.
Got it.
It's stabilised at 10 points behind - but remember it was 20 last time.
Around Wednesday next week, we should know about how it's going.
Labour is upticking in all polls since the election was actually called (which is actually better than 2017 I think, since the uptick then only happened when the manifesto leaked).
The Tories have gone up a bit in the last week - but I think the average is a 10 point gap.
What is not consistent, is the strength of the Tory vote. It goes from 36 to 43. Labour is quite consistently around 30.
It wasn't like this last time, not this early on.
The Labour polling trend in 2017 was gradually upwards throughout the whole campaign period. The Tories were pretty consistently in the high 40s until the manifesto debacle, after which their trend line began to move downwards about as fast as Labour's climbed.
If only someone had made a chart depicting these trends.
Labour: business and the tories want to stop us giving you free stuff.
It does feel to me one promise a bit too far beyond plausible but I doubt it will horrify that many. - we know people are generally in favour or neutral on most such plans in theory at least. Though as I noted previously it's the first GE story I've had spontaneously mentioned to me , so its grabbed attention for better and worse.
Free broadband. Bloody brilliant as a headline grabber/dead cat.
Total cut through imho.
And drove the bad NHS results out of the news.
Bloody brilliant.
Exactly - the idiots running the Labour campaign managed to dead cat their most effective message!
Nationalised broadband is a slightly madder reheat of a 2017 proposal to spaff billions on broadband, which like everyone else I had completely forgotten about.
The main difference is that they've now gone back to the 1983 manifesto:
The 1983 manifesto envisages a "national, broadband network" to carry a "wide range of new telecommunications services" and "greater variety in the provision of television".
But, it adds, this important new system must be "under firm public control", with the job of building it handed exclusively to "publicly-owned British Telecommunications".
Absolutely the 1983 labour manifesto, the Venezuelan playbook. It had some wacky ideas, like leaving the EU without another referendum. No wonder it was dubbed the longest suicide note in history.
Labour: business and the tories want to stop us giving you free stuff.
It does feel to me one promise a bit too far beyond plausible but I doubt it will horrify that many. - we know people are generally in favour or neutral on most such plans in theory at least. Though as I noted previously it's the first GE story I've had spontaneously mentioned to me , so its grabbed attention for better and worse.
Free broadband. Bloody brilliant as a headline grabber/dead cat.
Total cut through imho.
Doubt the majority of voters will focus on detail or worry about the idea that the state under Corbyn, Pidcock and Seamus could control access to the Internet.
They will when the other side emphasises that other countries with that sort of control use it to cut off Social Media.
Are you worried that when the revolution comes, your broadband line will be the first against the wire-cutters?
Nope I am worried that lunatics like Corbyn would happily follow the example of China and shut down any platforms that opposed him.
And you should be worried that there are similar lunatics on the right who might get into power and do the same thing.
It works both ways. If you want to understand whether a policy is a really bad idea, imagine it in the hands of the worst political opponent you can imagine.
I know it works both ways - back in 2016 I was saying that one benefit of the EU was that it acted as a brake on the madder type of politician, and I was not the only person pointing that out. I was repeatedly told that it showed all that was wrong with the EU.
Well, the lunatics are nearly in charge of the asylum now, and they would like all the keys handed over please...
The Brexit dividend continues. I can see why Elon Musk chose a stable democracy for his new EU business.
Labour is upticking in all polls since the election was actually called (which is actually better than 2017 I think, since the uptick then only happened when the manifesto leaked).
The Tories have gone up a bit in the last week - but I think the average is a 10 point gap.
What is not consistent, is the strength of the Tory vote. It goes from 36 to 43. Labour is quite consistently around 30.
It wasn't like this last time, not this early on.
The Labour polling trend in 2017 was gradually upwards throughout the whole campaign period. The Tories were pretty consistently in the high 40s until the manifesto debacle, after which their trend line began to move downwards about as fast as Labour's climbed.
If only someone had made a chart depicting these trends.
Labour is upticking in all polls since the election was actually called (which is actually better than 2017 I think, since the uptick then only happened when the manifesto leaked).
The Tories have gone up a bit in the last week - but I think the average is a 10 point gap.
What is not consistent, is the strength of the Tory vote. It goes from 36 to 43. Labour is quite consistently around 30.
It wasn't like this last time, not this early on.
The Tories didn't go up at all during the last election campaign. They only went down or stayed the same. This time they are up.
Labour is upticking in all polls since the election was actually called (which is actually better than 2017 I think, since the uptick then only happened when the manifesto leaked).
The Tories have gone up a bit in the last week - but I think the average is a 10 point gap.
What is not consistent, is the strength of the Tory vote. It goes from 36 to 43. Labour is quite consistently around 30.
It wasn't like this last time, not this early on.
The Tories didn't go up at all during the last election campaign. They only went down or stayed the same. This time they are up.
They went up after the election was called. That famous 50 point poll for instance.
I have a feeling the weekend polls will show an increased Tory lead, like panel base.
Certainly wouldn't be surprised...
At what point have they squeezed the BREX sponge dry and will need votes from lab and libd to advance further in 40’s? Is 43 the ceiling where It needs polls with lab minus Lib minus for Tory plus?
At a guess about 45%.
Of course, if the Tories stay anywhere in the 40s then Labour needs the Lib Dem vote share to collapse if they're going to have a reasonable chance of securing another Hung Parliament.
punch above that in seats due to TV.
That scenario makes heroic assumptions about tactical voting. You'd have to have a lot of Remain-leaning voters simultaneously dumping the Lib Dems and backing Labour in the North, and dumping Labour and backing the Lib Dems in the South.
Take away all the voters who have no interest in or knowledge of tactical voting, are tribally loyal to one party (especially on the Labour side,) or who won't switch because they loathe the alternative party more than they loathe Brexit, and I'm not at all sure you've got the numbers there to neutralise a significant Conservative lead.
Well that’s why it’s so interesting 🙂. We don’t know the degree or impact of remain TV. But if polls show lab 34 or 33 and ld 15 or 16 Tories have to fear the worst.
If anything the last couple of weeks it’s feeling labour are firming up what you call tribal areas targeted by Tories and farage?
Labour have not even started to fire up their base yet I should imagine! The Tories are the devil incarnate to many Labour inclined voters in big cities and former mining areas. To be honest I think 2017 was as good as it gets for Tories in picking off former Labour safe seats. I might be wrong but knowing this type of seat I don't envisage them suddenly embracing Tories who prioritise tax cuts for the rich at the expense of poorer voters in seats the Tories want to win.
Haven't fired up their base yet? WTF are the drones waiting for? A free bacon butty from a nationalised Greggs in the morning followed by 5 minutes of TLC from a nationalised comfort worker?
Early days yet for people who do not follow politics as much as you or I. It takes time for people to engage, usually for the team they usually support. This is why I think the Tories might have a problem....
Comments
Total cut through imho.
Doubt the majority of voters will focus on detail or worry about the idea that the state under Corbyn, Pidcock and Seamus could control access to the Internet.
Getting Labour back to normality. I honestly have no idea.
Lib Dem’s becoming official opposition to Tories the only way I think. Which won’t happen.
No. I didn't buy that story either.
Unfortunately, what the referendum really showed and has gone on showing since is just how utterly broken our political system is. It has basically spewed out a load of problems that have been building up since at least Blair - the spin, the cronyism, the incompetence, the hubris and the moral cowardice, coupled with politicians who are, at best, fifth rate and mostly unemployable. And it showed they had infiltrated everywhere.
In showing this it may be doing us a service in the long run, but in the meanwhile it’s a horrible experience to live through.
For two reasons , some Tories getting cold feet and the same for ex Labour .
I think they’d do well to poll 12% on Election Day . If they manage 20 seats I think that should be classed as okay for them , I never bought these seat projections that had them hitting 40 +.
I do think their revoke policy hasn’t worked , they were always the strongest Remain party and didn’t need to go that far .
The Tories really should be winning this election with ease , they have everything in their favour , if they can’t manage a majority then that would be a massive shock .
Labour need a series of things to align to have any hope of stopping a Tory majority . Big turnout in younger people and Remainers , lots of tactical voting and some serious missteps by Johnson .
In short yes, it should only be constituency for a GE.
They've almost played the £350m game. They've attacked the policy but not proposed anything, so people say "well it's crap now, what will you do"?
And crickets.
This is just like tuition fees.
Labour has for one day, got the debate off Brexit. I wonder if they can continue it.
I think the polls will tighten over next week or so.
Bolton fire: Huge blaze breaks out at student flats
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-50438177
Hopefully the fact it was a Friday evening means not many were in there and those that were got out.
If it had broken out at 2am tomorrow...
Take away all the voters who have no interest in or knowledge of tactical voting, are tribally loyal to one party (especially on the Labour side,) or who won't switch because they loathe the alternative party more than they loathe Brexit, and I'm not at all sure you've got the numbers there to neutralise a significant Conservative lead.
First question: is everyone safe?
Second question: was it the cladding again?
If one believed in God one might almost be tempted to suggest that the countenance of the Almighty does not shine favourably upon our Prime Minister.
I think I can answer it. Culture. The japs have never been communist, but a bit of state oomph has never been a dirty business for them like it has become in the dryer more puritanical UK since thatcher.
The overwhelming majority of EU States have either spawned totalitarian regimes or lived and suffered under them. Unrestrained national governments are therefore distrusted, subconsciously or indeed overtly.
The EU is regarded as a braking mechanism to prevent renewed extremism, economic or political.
The UK has never lived under extremism so we don’t look at the EU in the same way.
With Corbyn running around I actually want as many EU rules applied and enforced to stop and neuter him if ever he assumed power. The EU, ironically and completely adversely to my reasoning for voting to leave, would be the only guarantor of the rights and freedoms I thought the EU were undermining.
Ironic.
The main difference is that they've now gone back to the 1983 manifesto:
The 1983 manifesto envisages a "national, broadband network" to carry a "wide range of new telecommunications services" and "greater variety in the provision of television".
But, it adds, this important new system must be "under firm public control", with the job of building it handed exclusively to "publicly-owned British Telecommunications".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-39872189
Less than Jones although he's meant to be impartial Sky news presenter.
You shall have no other gods before Me.
You shall make no idols.
You shall not take the name of the Lord your God in vain.
Keep the Sabbath day holy.
Honor your father and your mother.
You shall not murder.
You shall not commit adultery.
You shall not steal.
You shall not bear false witness against your neighbor.
You shall not covet.
Name two Johnson hasn’t broken.
Although that said, naming one Corbyn hasn’t broken is hard work...
But you have to wonder how we have yet another fire spreading like this. If it is indeed the cladding than somebody deserves prosecution.
Hopefully just for HS breaches, not manslaughter.
At that point, the numbers are irrelevant.
We saw this in 2015 with austerity. Labour tried to play austerity lite and they failed. Now the Tories are playing Labour lite with spending.
It won't work.
If anything the last couple of weeks it’s feeling labour are firming up what you call tribal areas targeted by Tories and farage?
@Beibheirli_C, I just had that rupture you spoke of
Never again.
The Tories have gone up a bit in the last week - but I think the average is a 10 point gap.
What is not consistent, is the strength of the Tory vote. It goes from 36 to 43. Labour is quite consistently around 30.
It wasn't like this last time, not this early on.
I am not convinced, at all.
And you should be worried that there are similar lunatics on the right who might get into power and do the same thing.
It works both ways. If you want to understand whether a policy is a really bad idea, imagine it in the hands of the worst political opponent you can imagine.
We had a Workington poll very early on another poll there may be interesting for lack of movement or movement.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgDKtLPp46s
Bloody brilliant.
It's stabilised at 10 points behind - but remember it was 20 last time.
Around Wednesday next week, we should know about how it's going.
Ah well.
https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/1195467419449462785?s=20
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election#/media/File:Opinion_polling_UK_2017_election_short_axis.png
Vs
2019
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election#/media/File:Uk2022polling15average.png
Early days but to me 2019 is not looking as encouraging for Labour as 2017 at this point.
Well, the lunatics are nearly in charge of the asylum now, and they would like all the keys handed over please...
The Brexit dividend continues. I can see why Elon Musk chose a stable democracy for his new EU business.
We are no longer a stable democracy.
We then get a week of Lab and Lib manifesto leading up to the Tory reveal the week after, is that right?