Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Throughout the whole of 2019 every time YouGov has asked its B

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited November 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Throughout the whole of 2019 every time YouGov has asked its Brexit Tracker question voters those polled have said it’s wrong

politicalbetting.com is proudly powered by WordPress with "Neat!" theme. Entries (RSS) and Comments (RSS).

Read the full story here


«134

Comments

  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Will LAB be ahead soon?
  • Ave_it said:

    Will LAB be ahead soon?

    QTWTAIN
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    edited November 2019
    Tories going backward...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,490
    Ave_it said:

    Will LAB be ahead soon?

    No.

    On topic, If a majority of people not only think Brexit is wrong but wish to stop it, the power is in their hands, particularly those in marginal seats. They know what choice will stop Brexit (or at least might) and what choice definitely will not, and it's up to the public to be smart about it.
  • Interesting that the latest LP manifesto commitment could not be carried out if we were to remain?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 23,322
    FWIW my view has always been that we will get another hung Parliament. Labour are not to be under-rated, the Tories are far too hubristic and the Lib Dems seem to be misfiring somehow.

    But, hey, this is based on no knowledge or canvassing whatsoever. So what do I know.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,490
    edited November 2019

    Varoufakis speaks ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kzx0XSXV0FQ

    It's interesting at times but he repeatedly gets facts wrong ... is he meant to be an expert?!

    He does say that we need a written constitution PDQ. I agree.

    One of the major problems with written (or rather codified) constitution adherents is they oversell it a bit, often by suggesting some current conundrum, confusion or political argument would not be taking place if we had one and extrapolating that into an implication it removes that risk, when we know that written constitutions do not prevent conundrums, confusions or bitter political arguments about fundamental issues, procedures and rights. If it is the best approach - and while I am skeptical of that I do think elements of our system could indeed be vastly improved by an exhaustive review of them - it's still not quite the panacea that it is sometimes sold as.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    It’s very simple vote lib dem stop brexit any other vote facilitates it don’t listen to the Tory scare mongers about a corbyn government, he isn’t going to win so vote to stop the most stupid collective decision the UK has ever made
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,490
    Cyclefree said:

    FWIW my view has always been that we will get another hung Parliament. Labour are not to be under-rated, the Tories are far too hubristic and the Lib Dems seem to be misfiring somehow.

    But, hey, this is based on no knowledge or canvassing whatsoever. So what do I know.

    I too think we'll get a hung parliament, but I'm not sure the Tories are hubristic this time. My impression is one of great nerves, worried that despite what should be a poll rating to engender hubrism, they might accidentally repeat the mistakes of 2017. The LDs are, once again, struggling to be heard and getting squeezes, and Labour are predictably benefiting from that, but also their unfocused spending splooge seems, at present, more cynical and unfocused than last time.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    Think the weekend will show Labour reducing the lead and it'll be squeaky bum time for the Tories until polling day. Amusingly Fraser Nelson on the latest Spectator podcast totally shat himself when told John Curtice had said the chances of a Labour majority were "close to 0%" (or similar). It's what people said about certain outcomes before Brexit, the Trump election, the Cameron majority and the Boris deal....They've prepared a 'Corbyn Wins' Christmas cover.
  • WJMWJM Posts: 1
    the poll is correct as it mirrors the polls just before thereferendum which leave won,however if there was another vote the leave majority would be bigger as people like me who campaigned for emain that are democrats would nowchange my vote however I would in the above poll said it was wrong
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,345
    edited November 2019
    Cyclefree said:

    FWIW my view has always been that we will get another hung Parliament. Labour are not to be under-rated, the Tories are far too hubristic and the Lib Dems seem to be misfiring somehow.

    But, hey, this is based on no knowledge or canvassing whatsoever. So what do I know.

    You know plenty and my instinct says labour will lose seats, lib dems and SNP will gain seats, and the conservatives may just achieve a majority but I am not certain it will be a large one
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,107
    Welcome, @WJM!
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Think the weekend will show Labour reducing the lead and it'll be squeaky bum time for the Tories until polling day. Amusingly Fraser Nelson on the latest Spectator podcast totally shat himself when told John Curtice had said the chances of a Labour majority were "close to 0%" (or similar). It's what people said about certain outcomes before Brexit, the Trump election, the Cameron majority and the Boris deal....They've prepared a 'Corbyn Wins' Christmas cover.

    Labour are going nowhere they are idiots and incoherent in what they propose, only marginally worse than the tories.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2019
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,490
    Noo said:

    A few days old, so not sure if posted already
    https://twitter.com/TomBoadle/status/1193108798220754944

    It would not stack up as an argument, but I feel a cynical tory out there would suggest that means Tories have an interest in making places richer, while Labour have an interest in making them poorer!
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    IIRC the latest Panelbase asked the EU ref question, and gave an answer of 52:48 in favour of Remain once the don't knows were removed. More broadly, the split of Remain versus Leave parties was also about 52:48 if you count Labour in with the former.

    The issue is, of course, that the Leave vote is more united, and if the Conservatives can leverage that into a working majority of one or more in the next HoC then this question becomes an effective irrelevance. Brexit happens, and then the more pertinent question is whether or not voters back Rejoin.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 11,401
    edited November 2019
    kle4 said:

    Ave_it said:

    Will LAB be ahead soon?

    No.

    On topic, If a majority of people not only think Brexit is wrong but wish to stop it, the power is in their hands, particularly those in marginal seats. They know what choice will stop Brexit (or at least might) and what choice definitely will not, and it's up to the public to be smart about it.
    It is largely for this reason that I think a Hung Parliament is more likely than current polling would suggest.

    The other reasons are that not that much has really changed since the last election. Boris is not self-evidently a better campaigner than May, and when the campaign proper begins, we can expect to see that Corbyn is in his element, as he was last time.

    2/1 against an HP is simply too big.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Surely this begs the question of why they think it was wrong. Could it be because of the fucking mess Parliament/ Govt has made of it? This question begs as many different questions for individuals as the Yes/ No referendum. Those negatives would include Brenda.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,850
    Let the side down
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 20,038

    Interesting that the latest LP manifesto commitment could not be carried out if we were to remain?

    Taking over OpenReach? Certainly it could. There are plenty of nationalised industries in the EU.
  • If Remainers are prepared to vote intelligently, the Tories will be out.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    nichomar said:

    It’s very simple vote lib dem stop brexit any other vote facilitates it don’t listen to the Tory scare mongers about a corbyn government, he isn’t going to win so vote to stop the most stupid collective decision the UK has ever made

    I'd correct that: vote tactically anti-Tory.

    It might be Labour, LibDem or Green in England.

    In Wales, add PC. In Scotland, add SNP.

    There's been a discussion of tactical voting on Twitter. Apparently most of the sites do in fact agree what to do in most constituencies.

    To cite two seats I know slightly, in Mole Valley vote Lib.Dem; in Milton Keynes South vote Labour. Mole Valley will stay Tory, say my relatives there and that looks very likely. But M.Keynes S could easily go Labour. A Labour-run referendum is better than leaving.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 23,322
    AndyJS said:
    It’s particularly amusing to see Tories claiming that Labour’s latest broadband proposals would breach EU state aid rules when the whole point of Brexit is not to comply with such rules.

    It’s not as if they were not warned that Brexit would enable Corbyn - both by making his victory more likely and removing any restraints on his government.
  • Was it, 20% of Remainers voting tactically, wipes out the Tory majority?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2019

    If Remainers are prepared to vote intelligently, the Tories will be out.

    It depends on the shares. If Tories + BRX = 49% or 50% it's difficult for that to happen. Today's Panelbase had them on 48% collectively.
  • Brexit happens, and then the more pertinent question is whether or not voters back Rejoin.

    That's certainly a pertinent question, but the ones that Johnson will be more concerned with will be, "Do the voters think that Brexit has made things worse?" and "Do the voters blame me for the way it turned out?"

    As a utopian lefty I am very familiar with the argument that "x would have worked fine if it had been done properly", and this is a more likely opinion for Leave-supporting voters to form were Brexit to turn out badly than, "clearly I made a terrible mistake voting Leave and we should now rejoin."

    What I find interesting about the YouGov tracker figures is that the "Wrong" numbers are very close to the proportion who voted Remain. The only reason that Wrong has a lead is because nearly one-quarter of the other 52% say "Don't Know" which is not an unreasonable answer for someone who might say "depends if they do it properly".
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    kle4 said:

    Ave_it said:

    Will LAB be ahead soon?

    No.

    On topic, If a majority of people not only think Brexit is wrong but wish to stop it, the power is in their hands, particularly those in marginal seats. They know what choice will stop Brexit (or at least might) and what choice definitely will not, and it's up to the public to be smart about it.
    It is largely for this reason that I think a Hung Parliament is more likely than current polling would suggest.

    The other reasons are that not that much has really changed since the last election. Boris is not self-evidently a better campaigner than May, and when the campaign proper begins, we can expect to see that Corbyn is in his element, as he was last time.

    2/1 against an HP is simply too big.
    Corbyn did not look well today and there is lots of speculation about his health. McDonnell also seems to be doing much of the heavy lifting. I guess we'll find out more next week and I believe the Deputy Leader is not standing.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,490
    edited November 2019
    Cyclefree said:

    AndyJS said:
    It’s particularly amusing to see Tories claiming that Labour’s latest broadband proposals would breach EU state aid rules when the whole point of Brexit is not to comply with such rules.

    It’s not as if they were not warned that Brexit would enable Corbyn - both by making his victory more likely and removing any restraints on his government.
    I don't think this is quite the clever point you seem to think it is. Since Labour's policy is not definitely to Brexit, indeed it is that Remain could still happen (and we know its members and voters want that), it is not absurd to point out (assuming they are right) that they could not do this plan under current rules. That under Tory plans they might be able to do such a thing, if they thought it a good idea, is neither here nor there to whether for Labour it makes sense. 'You'd have to Brexit to do that plan' might even dissuade some Labour supporters from liking the plan. If Labour think you could do it within the EU, that's different.
  • Brexit happens, and then the more pertinent question is whether or not voters back Rejoin.

    That's certainly a pertinent question, but the ones that Johnson will be more concerned with will be, "Do the voters think that Brexit has made things worse?" and "Do the voters blame me for the way it turned out?"

    As a utopian lefty I am very familiar with the argument that "x would have worked fine if it had been done properly", and this is a more likely opinion for Leave-supporting voters to form were Brexit to turn out badly than, "clearly I made a terrible mistake voting Leave and we should now rejoin."

    What I find interesting about the YouGov tracker figures is that the "Wrong" numbers are very close to the proportion who voted Remain. The only reason that Wrong has a lead is because nearly one-quarter of the other 52% say "Don't Know" which is not an unreasonable answer for someone who might say "depends if they do it properly".
    The point you raise will be on the minds of people in those Northern Labour seats.

    And I don't think they'll take the risk of voting Boris Johnson in the end. I think they'll either not vote, or they'll stick with Labour.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    Cyclefree said:

    AndyJS said:
    It’s particularly amusing to see Tories claiming that Labour’s latest broadband proposals would breach EU state aid rules when the whole point of Brexit is not to comply with such rules.

    It’s not as if they were not warned that Brexit would enable Corbyn - both by making his victory more likely and removing any restraints on his government.
    +1 Tory Brexiteers may live to regret Brexit as you succinctly outline.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    If Remainers are prepared to vote intelligently, the Tories will be out.

    non sequitur
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Was it, 20% of Remainers voting tactically, wipes out the Tory majority?

    One of the tactical voting websites said 30% doing so would reduce the Tories to 309 seats instead of 350 IIRC, so that implies around 25% would put them below 326 (although I'm guessing a bit).
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Brexit happens, and then the more pertinent question is whether or not voters back Rejoin.

    That's certainly a pertinent question, but the ones that Johnson will be more concerned with will be, "Do the voters think that Brexit has made things worse?" and "Do the voters blame me for the way it turned out?"

    As a utopian lefty I am very familiar with the argument that "x would have worked fine if it had been done properly", and this is a more likely opinion for Leave-supporting voters to form were Brexit to turn out badly than, "clearly I made a terrible mistake voting Leave and we should now rejoin."

    What I find interesting about the YouGov tracker figures is that the "Wrong" numbers are very close to the proportion who voted Remain. The only reason that Wrong has a lead is because nearly one-quarter of the other 52% say "Don't Know" which is not an unreasonable answer for someone who might say "depends if they do it properly".
    The point you raise will be on the minds of people in those Northern Labour seats.

    And I don't think they'll take the risk of voting Boris Johnson in the end. I think they'll either not vote, or they'll stick with Labour.
    Voting Labour would be a far bigger risk
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    Was it, 20% of Remainers voting tactically, wipes out the Tory majority?

    Remainer TV will be much higher than that surely?
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    AndyJS said:
    It’s particularly amusing to see Tories claiming that Labour’s latest broadband proposals would breach EU state aid rules when the whole point of Brexit is not to comply with such rules.

    It’s not as if they were not warned that Brexit would enable Corbyn - both by making his victory more likely and removing any restraints on his government.
    I don't think this is quite the clever point you seem to think it is. Since Labour's policy is not definitely to Brexit, indeed it is that Remain could still happen (and we know its members and voters want that), it is not absurd to point out (assuming they are right) that they could not do this plan under current rules. That under Tory plans they might be able to do such a thing, if they thought it a good idea, is neither here nor there to whether for Labour it makes sense. 'You'd have to Brexit to do that plan' might even dissuade some Labour supporters from liking the plan. If Labour think you could do it within the EU, that's different.
    It's amusing because were Labour to win the election, some of those Conservatives would be clawing to stay in the EU just to put a stop to Corbyn's plans. It would require a heart of stone and brain of wet bread not to smirk at that thought.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    nichomar said:

    It’s very simple vote lib dem stop brexit any other vote facilitates it don’t listen to the Tory scare mongers about a corbyn government, he isn’t going to win so vote to stop the most stupid collective decision the UK has ever made

    I'd correct that: vote tactically anti-Tory.

    It might be Labour, LibDem or Green in England.

    In Wales, add PC. In Scotland, add SNP.

    There's been a discussion of tactical voting on Twitter. Apparently most of the sites do in fact agree what to do in most constituencies.

    To cite two seats I know slightly, in Mole Valley vote Lib.Dem; in Milton Keynes South vote Labour. Mole Valley will stay Tory, say my relatives there and that looks very likely. But M.Keynes S could easily go Labour. A Labour-run referendum is better than leaving.
    The sun newspaper reassured me it’s safe and guilt free to vote tactically today, they published a you gov poll of polls with a mountainous 14 point lead for Boris.
  • Floater said:

    Brexit happens, and then the more pertinent question is whether or not voters back Rejoin.

    That's certainly a pertinent question, but the ones that Johnson will be more concerned with will be, "Do the voters think that Brexit has made things worse?" and "Do the voters blame me for the way it turned out?"

    As a utopian lefty I am very familiar with the argument that "x would have worked fine if it had been done properly", and this is a more likely opinion for Leave-supporting voters to form were Brexit to turn out badly than, "clearly I made a terrible mistake voting Leave and we should now rejoin."

    What I find interesting about the YouGov tracker figures is that the "Wrong" numbers are very close to the proportion who voted Remain. The only reason that Wrong has a lead is because nearly one-quarter of the other 52% say "Don't Know" which is not an unreasonable answer for someone who might say "depends if they do it properly".
    The point you raise will be on the minds of people in those Northern Labour seats.

    And I don't think they'll take the risk of voting Boris Johnson in the end. I think they'll either not vote, or they'll stick with Labour.
    Voting Labour would be a far bigger risk
    We had this in 2017 - May seemed a lot more appealing to the kinds of voters in the North and May won three seats or something pathetic like that.

    I'm not at all convinced this is a good strategy, electorally.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    I have a feeling the weekend polls will show an increased Tory lead, like panel base.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,623
    Though I bow to no one in my loathing of Boris Johnson I would settle for him being PM in exchange for getting rid of Brexit. I bet he would too.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2019
    The problem with this election is that there are a lot of people who want to stop two things from happening just as much as each other: Corbyn being PM and Brexit. But as things stand it looks like the only way to stop Brexit is through some type of Corbyn-led government. So those voters have to decide which they dislike the least and that's not a nice choice for many of them. Some people say that Corbyn being PM as part of a rainbow coalition is different from him having a majority, but under our system that isn't really true: you're either prime minister or you're not prime minister. You have many of the same powers (such as access to the nuclear codes) once you're appointed to the job regardless of whether you have a majority, minority or coalition government in place.
  • egg said:

    Was it, 20% of Remainers voting tactically, wipes out the Tory majority?

    Remainer TV will be much higher than that surely?
    Dunno. When you follow PB it's easy to overestimate the amount of thought normal people give the subject.

    By way of example, I can tell you a perfectly intelligent remain-voting friend asked me recently if Brexit had happened yet.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,485
    PB hive mind. Do election leaflets for the royal mail unaddressed candidate mail drop need a "region" on or just constituency?
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    Noo said:

    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    AndyJS said:
    It’s particularly amusing to see Tories claiming that Labour’s latest broadband proposals would breach EU state aid rules when the whole point of Brexit is not to comply with such rules.

    It’s not as if they were not warned that Brexit would enable Corbyn - both by making his victory more likely and removing any restraints on his government.
    I don't think this is quite the clever point you seem to think it is. Since Labour's policy is not definitely to Brexit, indeed it is that Remain could still happen (and we know its members and voters want that), it is not absurd to point out (assuming they are right) that they could not do this plan under current rules. That under Tory plans they might be able to do such a thing, if they thought it a good idea, is neither here nor there to whether for Labour it makes sense. 'You'd have to Brexit to do that plan' might even dissuade some Labour supporters from liking the plan. If Labour think you could do it within the EU, that's different.
    It's amusing because were Labour to win the election, some of those Conservatives would be clawing to stay in the EU just to put a stop to Corbyn's plans. It would require a heart of stone and brain of wet bread not to smirk at that thought.
    Oh Noo. Think that a bit rude to be honest. All the ones I can think of, Gove, Cummings, Boris, farage, Mogg, all wanted for sovereign control taken back within borders of our sovereign state, if a bunch of gimmicky Marxists then won the golden jackpot by slipping into power, these brexiteers will then shrug, fair enough, job done and democracy in action.
  • AndyJS said:

    The problem with this election is that there are a lot of people who want to stop two things from happening just as much as each other: Corbyn being PM and Brexit. But as things stand it looks like the only way to stop Brexit is through some type of Corbyn-led government. So those voters have to decide which they dislike the least, and that's not a nice choice for many of them.

    Corbyn's the lesser of two evils for me.

    You can change Corbyn, sooner or later, one way or the other. Brexit is permanent. Even in the unlikely event we could rejoin, it would be decades hence and almost certainly on far worse terms.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Interesting that the latest LP manifesto commitment could not be carried out if we were to remain?

    Taking over OpenReach? Certainly it could. There are plenty of nationalised industries in the EU.
    The “free” is the issue - could be perceived as state aid
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    egg said:

    Noo said:

    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    AndyJS said:
    It’s particularly amusing to see Tories claiming that Labour’s latest broadband proposals would breach EU state aid rules when the whole point of Brexit is not to comply with such rules.

    It’s not as if they were not warned that Brexit would enable Corbyn - both by making his victory more likely and removing any restraints on his government.
    I don't think this is quite the clever point you seem to think it is. Since Labour's policy is not definitely to Brexit, indeed it is that Remain could still happen (and we know its members and voters want that), it is not absurd to point out (assuming they are right) that they could not do this plan under current rules. That under Tory plans they might be able to do such a thing, if they thought it a good idea, is neither here nor there to whether for Labour it makes sense. 'You'd have to Brexit to do that plan' might even dissuade some Labour supporters from liking the plan. If Labour think you could do it within the EU, that's different.
    It's amusing because were Labour to win the election, some of those Conservatives would be clawing to stay in the EU just to put a stop to Corbyn's plans. It would require a heart of stone and brain of wet bread not to smirk at that thought.
    Oh Noo. Think that a bit rude to be honest. All the ones I can think of, Gove, Cummings, Boris, farage, Mogg, all wanted for sovereign control taken back within borders of our sovereign state, if a bunch of gimmicky Marxists then won the golden jackpot by slipping into power, these brexiteers will then shrug, fair enough, job done and democracy in action.
    Some of them would. Some of them wouldn't. It's the ones who would blanche in terror and volte-face that would make my year.
  • nunu2 said:

    I have a feeling the weekend polls will show an increased Tory lead, like panel base.

    I would bet quite a large sum the combined Lab plus Con score will continue to track up.

    May reach 80%.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Cyclefree said:

    AndyJS said:
    It’s particularly amusing to see Tories claiming that Labour’s latest broadband proposals would breach EU state aid rules when the whole point of Brexit is not to comply with such rules.

    It’s not as if they were not warned that Brexit would enable Corbyn - both by making his victory more likely and removing any restraints on his government.
    The point is to remind Remainers that he’s a leaver
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    egg said:

    Was it, 20% of Remainers voting tactically, wipes out the Tory majority?

    Remainer TV will be much higher than that surely?
    Dunno. When you follow PB it's easy to overestimate the amount of thought normal people give the subject.

    By way of example, I can tell you a perfectly intelligent remain-voting friend asked me recently if Brexit had happened yet.
    😈 If they asked me I would have said yes, what all that fuss about?

    I also would have told them footage of the Martian invasion being screened live by BBC on Sunday night.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,490
    edited November 2019
    Noo said:

    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    AndyJS said:
    It’s particularly amusing to see Tories claiming that Labour’s latest broadband proposals would breach EU state aid rules when the whole point of Brexit is not to comply with such rules.

    It’s not as if they were not warned that Brexit would enable Corbyn - both by making his victory more likely and removing any restraints on his government.
    I don't think this is quite the clever point you seem to think it is. Since Labour's policy is not definitely to Brexit, indeed it is that Remain could still happen (and we know its members and voters want that), it is not absurd to point out (assuming they are right) that they could not do this plan under current rules. That under Tory plans they might be able to do such a thing, if they thought it a good idea, is neither here nor there to whether for Labour it makes sense. 'You'd have to Brexit to do that plan' might even dissuade some Labour supporters from liking the plan. If Labour think you could do it within the EU, that's different.
    It's amusing because were Labour to win the election, some of those Conservatives would be clawing to stay in the EU just to put a stop to Corbyn's plans. It would require a heart of stone and brain of wet bread not to smirk at that thought.
    Yes, that makes it amusing, and the point that Brexiting would enable things many Brexiteers really do not want, however the quote was 'It’s particularly amusing to see Tories claiming that Labour’s latest broadband proposals would breach EU state aid rules when the whole point of Brexit is not to comply with such rules'. Since Labour are not, in fact, committed to Brexiting yet, and may not ever be, it hardly matters if the point of Brexit is not to comply with those rules, since Labour might well commit to us complying with those rules, and there's nothing inherently ridiculous about Brexiteers not wanting to comply with the rules of the EU also not wanting to take some actions that would become available. Just because Brexit enables certain options doesn't mean anyone who backs it is ridiculous for not wanting some of those options.
  • Roger said:

    Though I bow to no one in my loathing of Boris Johnson I would settle for him being PM in exchange for getting rid of Brexit. I bet he would too.

    That's probably right, Roger. By all accounts he was aghast when he realised Leave had actually won.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,522

    AndyJS said:

    The problem with this election is that there are a lot of people who want to stop two things from happening just as much as each other: Corbyn being PM and Brexit. But as things stand it looks like the only way to stop Brexit is through some type of Corbyn-led government. So those voters have to decide which they dislike the least, and that's not a nice choice for many of them.

    Corbyn's the lesser of two evils for me.

    You can change Corbyn, sooner or later, one way or the other. Brexit is permanent. Even in the unlikely event we could rejoin, it would be decades hence and almost certainly on far worse terms.
    That does presuppose Corbyn would stop it. At the moment, even though his policy on Brexit is even more incoherent than the rest of his uncosted populist rubbish, this seems a bold assumption. All other considerations aside, as has been noted his manifesto could not be carried out within the EU.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Floater said:

    Brexit happens, and then the more pertinent question is whether or not voters back Rejoin.

    That's certainly a pertinent question, but the ones that Johnson will be more concerned with will be, "Do the voters think that Brexit has made things worse?" and "Do the voters blame me for the way it turned out?"

    As a utopian lefty I am very familiar with the argument that "x would have worked fine if it had been done properly", and this is a more likely opinion for Leave-supporting voters to form were Brexit to turn out badly than, "clearly I made a terrible mistake voting Leave and we should now rejoin."

    What I find interesting about the YouGov tracker figures is that the "Wrong" numbers are very close to the proportion who voted Remain. The only reason that Wrong has a lead is because nearly one-quarter of the other 52% say "Don't Know" which is not an unreasonable answer for someone who might say "depends if they do it properly".
    The point you raise will be on the minds of people in those Northern Labour seats.

    And I don't think they'll take the risk of voting Boris Johnson in the end. I think they'll either not vote, or they'll stick with Labour.
    Voting Labour would be a far bigger risk
    Whilst I think labour are stark raving bonkers you do need to view the labour offer through a different prism. If you have fuck all what do you have to lose by voting labour? If you are unlikely to ever have fuck all what have you to lose by voting labour? Not everybody sees the election through the same frame. Do you want to preserve your own wealth or future prospects or do you want to share the overall benefits of growth etc across across all sectors. Voting labour will never produce a more equitable society because their model is wrong, you need to generate wealth to be able to distribute wealth. Time to end he system that seeks to only priorities its own supporters.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Maybe after the election Boris might do a deal with SuperJo if CON don't have enough seats!

    No BREXIT and no insane LAB budget!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,568
    nunu2 said:

    I have a feeling the weekend polls will show an increased Tory lead, like panel base.

    Certainly wouldn't be surprised...
  • Ave_it said:

    Maybe after the election Boris might do a deal with SuperJo if CON don't have enough seats!

    No BREXIT and no insane LAB budget!

    Broad beans will be nationalised.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Brexit happens, and then the more pertinent question is whether or not voters back Rejoin.

    That's certainly a pertinent question, but the ones that Johnson will be more concerned with will be, "Do the voters think that Brexit has made things worse?" and "Do the voters blame me for the way it turned out?"

    As a utopian lefty I am very familiar with the argument that "x would have worked fine if it had been done properly", and this is a more likely opinion for Leave-supporting voters to form were Brexit to turn out badly than, "clearly I made a terrible mistake voting Leave and we should now rejoin."

    What I find interesting about the YouGov tracker figures is that the "Wrong" numbers are very close to the proportion who voted Remain. The only reason that Wrong has a lead is because nearly one-quarter of the other 52% say "Don't Know" which is not an unreasonable answer for someone who might say "depends if they do it properly".
    The point you raise will be on the minds of people in those Northern Labour seats.

    And I don't think they'll take the risk of voting Boris Johnson in the end. I think they'll either not vote, or they'll stick with Labour.
    Possibilities:

    1. Labour keeps all its 2017 vote in these seats (seems highly unlikely at this stage) or enough of it to mean that the Tories are done out of the gains they need by what's left of the Faragist vote (more plausible.) Another Hung Parliament ensues.

    2. The pattern is rather more like that reported earlier today by a Sky correspondent visiting North Wales. A meaningful swing to Con amongst working class men, with the women either continuing to back Labour or abstaining. Probably leads to a Tory majority.

    3. Enough Labour Remain voters in these seats defect to the Lib Dems to allow the Tories to pick a load of them up, even on a static vote share. Almost certainly leads to a Tory majority.

    If Boris Johnson can keep his net favourability ratings well ahead of Corbyn's, and the Conservatives can wear down the Brexit Party vote share faster than Labour can reduce that of the Liberal Democrats, then the Tories are obviously in with an excellent chance of winning. If, on the other hand, enough of the Labour habit vote goes home by polling day then they don't.

    Keep on watching the Labour polling trend: I'm still afraid that it will keep on going up a la 2017, but if I'm wrong and they (and, by extension, the Lib Dems) level off, then Corbyn may be in serious difficulty.
  • AndyJS said:

    The problem with this election is that there are a lot of people who want to stop two things from happening just as much as each other: Corbyn being PM and Brexit. But as things stand it looks like the only way to stop Brexit is through some type of Corbyn-led government. So those voters have to decide which they dislike the least, and that's not a nice choice for many of them.

    Corbyn's the lesser of two evils for me.

    You can change Corbyn, sooner or later, one way or the other. Brexit is permanent. Even in the unlikely event we could rejoin, it would be decades hence and almost certainly on far worse terms.
    Brexit is the stupidest thing any major country has done in recent times. The world looks on in disbelief - they think we're mad.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Brexit happens, and then the more pertinent question is whether or not voters back Rejoin.

    That's certainly a pertinent question, but the ones that Johnson will be more concerned with will be, "Do the voters think that Brexit has made things worse?" and "Do the voters blame me for the way it turned out?"

    As a utopian lefty I am very familiar with the argument that "x would have worked fine if it had been done properly", and this is a more likely opinion for Leave-supporting voters to form were Brexit to turn out badly than, "clearly I made a terrible mistake voting Leave and we should now rejoin."

    What I find interesting about the YouGov tracker figures is that the "Wrong" numbers are very close to the proportion who voted Remain. The only reason that Wrong has a lead is because nearly one-quarter of the other 52% say "Don't Know" which is not an unreasonable answer for someone who might say "depends if they do it properly".
    The point you raise will be on the minds of people in those Northern Labour seats.

    And I don't think they'll take the risk of voting Boris Johnson in the end. I think they'll either not vote, or they'll stick with Labour.
    Possibilities:

    1. Labour keeps all its 2017 vote in these seats (seems highly unlikely at this stage) or enough of it to mean that the Tories are done out of the gains they need by what's left of the Faragist vote (more plausible.) Another Hung Parliament ensues.

    2. The pattern is rather more like that reported earlier today by a Sky correspondent visiting North Wales. A meaningful swing to Con amongst working class men, with the women either continuing to back Labour or abstaining. Probably leads to a Tory majority.

    3. Enough Labour Remain voters in these seats defect to the Lib Dems to allow the Tories to pick a load of them up, even on a static vote share. Almost certainly leads to a Tory majority.

    If Boris Johnson can keep his net favourability ratings well ahead of Corbyn's, and the Conservatives can wear down the Brexit Party vote share faster than Labour can reduce that of the Liberal Democrats, then the Tories are obviously in with an excellent chance of winning. If, on the other hand, enough of the Labour habit vote goes home by polling day then they don't.

    Keep on watching the Labour polling trend: I'm still afraid that it will keep on going up a la 2017, but if I'm wrong and they (and, by extension, the Lib Dems) level off, then Corbyn may be in serious difficulty.
    Labour will crash and burn it’s is where their votes go that mattered.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,502
    Roger said:

    Though I bow to no one in my loathing of Boris Johnson I would settle for him being PM in exchange for getting rid of Brexit. I bet he would too.

    Correspondingly, as a Leaver, I would happily accept Brexit being revoked and cancelled in exchange for all risk of Corbyn and his Marxist colleagues gaining power being permanently removed. As an added exchange I would happily accept the Euro and schengen as well to seal the deal.

    What a mess.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    Noo said:

    egg said:

    Noo said:

    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    AndyJS said:
    It’s particularly amusing to see Tories claiming that Labour’s latest broadband proposals would breach EU state aid rules when the whole point of Brexit is not to comply with such rules.

    It’s not as if they were not warned that Brexit would enable Corbyn - both by making his victory more likely and removing any restraints on his government.
    I don't think this is quite the clever point you seem to think it is. Since Labour's policy is not definitely to Brexit, indeed it is that Remain could still happen (and we know its members and voters want that), it is not absurd to point out (assuming they are right) that they could not do this plan under current rules. That under Tory plans they might be able to do such a thing, if they thought it a good idea, is neither here nor there to whether for Labour it makes sense. 'You'd have to Brexit to do that plan' might even dissuade some Labour supporters from liking the plan. If Labour think you could do it within the EU, that's different.
    It's amusing because were Labour to win the election, some of those Conservatives would be clawing to stay in the EU just to put a stop to Corbyn's plans. It would require a heart of stone and brain of wet bread not to smirk at that thought.
    Oh Noo. Think that a bit rude to be honest. All the ones I can think of, Gove, Cummings, Boris, farage, Mogg, all wanted for sovereign control taken back within borders of our sovereign state, if a bunch of gimmicky Marxists then won the golden jackpot by slipping into power, these brexiteers will then shrug, fair enough, job done and democracy in action.
    Some of them would. Some of them wouldn't. It's the ones who would blanche in terror and volte-face that would make my year.
    I still don’t believe you. It’s the job of those listed to stop the bunch of anti semites, with gimmicky Marxists policies copied out the 1983 labour manifesto, with a leader with worst ratings since politics began, if they struggle in the coming weeks and can’t hold power from this position they won’t argue or have any complaints, they will say fair play, deserve the chance to govern, like Hilary graciously said about Donald.
  • ydoethur said:

    AndyJS said:

    The problem with this election is that there are a lot of people who want to stop two things from happening just as much as each other: Corbyn being PM and Brexit. But as things stand it looks like the only way to stop Brexit is through some type of Corbyn-led government. So those voters have to decide which they dislike the least, and that's not a nice choice for many of them.

    Corbyn's the lesser of two evils for me.

    You can change Corbyn, sooner or later, one way or the other. Brexit is permanent. Even in the unlikely event we could rejoin, it would be decades hence and almost certainly on far worse terms.
    That does presuppose Corbyn would stop it. At the moment, even though his policy on Brexit is even more incoherent than the rest of his uncosted populist rubbish, this seems a bold assumption. All other considerations aside, as has been noted his manifesto could not be carried out within the EU.
    Yes, you could in theory get the Double Whammy - Brexit & Venezuela, but I think it unlikely. A second referendum would be much more likely.

    Of course we might make the same stupid choice again, but at least we'd all thoroughly deserve it then.. No more complaining about lies on the sides of buses.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    GIN1138 said:

    nunu2 said:

    I have a feeling the weekend polls will show an increased Tory lead, like panel base.

    Certainly wouldn't be surprised...
    Seems quite likely as all the firms move, presumably, to take account of the partial Brexit Party stand down.

    Of course, a series of stonking Conservative leads won't make us Corbophobics breathe any easier. The next problem to worry about in that case will be the Tory soft Remain vote feeling that Labour is no longer a threat and, therefore, that they're free to defect to the Lib Dems...
  • nichomar said:

    Brexit happens, and then the more pertinent question is whether or not voters back Rejoin.

    That's certainly a pertinent question, but the ones that Johnson will be more concerned with will be, "Do the voters think that Brexit has made things worse?" and "Do the voters blame me for the way it turned out?"

    As a utopian lefty I am very familiar with the argument that "x would have worked fine if it had been done properly", and this is a more likely opinion for Leave-supporting voters to form were Brexit to turn out badly than, "clearly I made a terrible mistake voting Leave and we should now rejoin."

    What I find interesting about the YouGov tracker figures is that the "Wrong" numbers are very close to the proportion who voted Remain. The only reason that Wrong has a lead is because nearly one-quarter of the other 52% say "Don't Know" which is not an unreasonable answer for someone who might say "depends if they do it properly".
    The point you raise will be on the minds of people in those Northern Labour seats.

    And I don't think they'll take the risk of voting Boris Johnson in the end. I think they'll either not vote, or they'll stick with Labour.
    Possibilities:

    1. Labour keeps all its 2017 vote in these seats (seems highly unlikely at this stage) or enough of it to mean that the Tories are done out of the gains they need by what's left of the Faragist vote (more plausible.) Another Hung Parliament ensues.

    2. The pattern is rather more like that reported earlier today by a Sky correspondent visiting North Wales. A meaningful swing to Con amongst working class men, with the women either continuing to back Labour or abstaining. Probably leads to a Tory majority.

    3. Enough Labour Remain voters in these seats defect to the Lib Dems to allow the Tories to pick a load of them up, even on a static vote share. Almost certainly leads to a Tory majority.

    If Boris Johnson can keep his net favourability ratings well ahead of Corbyn's, and the Conservatives can wear down the Brexit Party vote share faster than Labour can reduce that of the Liberal Democrats, then the Tories are obviously in with an excellent chance of winning. If, on the other hand, enough of the Labour habit vote goes home by polling day then they don't.

    Keep on watching the Labour polling trend: I'm still afraid that it will keep on going up a la 2017, but if I'm wrong and they (and, by extension, the Lib Dems) level off, then Corbyn may be in serious difficulty.
    Labour will crash and burn it’s is where their votes go that mattered.
    We heard his in 2017.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Freggles said:

    PB hive mind. Do election leaflets for the royal mail unaddressed candidate mail drop need a "region" on or just constituency?

    Presumably the "region" referred to in the Royal Mail documentation is an electoral region for elections that have them; a General Election has only constituencies.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,248
    AndyJS said:
    It's true. Brexit is tearing up trade deals but getting richer. Brexit is free British owls. Brexit shifts the Overton window of time-wasting monomaniacal schemes. Brexit makes the daftest ideas sound less radical and easier than Brexit.
  • On topic: Isn't the most striking thing about these numbers that they don't seem to have changed much during the year? There doesn't seem to be any great trend towards buyer's remorse here.

    In any case it's the wrong question. It's perfectly possible, indeed very reasonable, for people to hold the view that it was the wrong decision but should be implemented because that was the decision taken by the electorate. It's also perfectly possible to hold the view that we can't in any case go back to the status quo ante.
  • Roger said:

    Though I bow to no one in my loathing of Boris Johnson I would settle for him being PM in exchange for getting rid of Brexit. I bet he would too.

    Correspondingly, as a Leaver, I would happily accept Brexit being revoked and cancelled in exchange for all risk of Corbyn and his Marxist colleagues gaining power being permanently removed. As an added exchange I would happily accept the Euro and schengen as well to seal the deal.

    What a mess.
    Lol! That's a deal. How do we set it up?
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    GIN1138 said:

    nunu2 said:

    I have a feeling the weekend polls will show an increased Tory lead, like panel base.

    Certainly wouldn't be surprised...
    At what point have they squeezed the BREX sponge dry and will need votes from lab and libd to advance further in 40’s? Is 43 the cieling where It needs polls with lab minus Lib minus for Tory plus?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,623
    I think the Tories will win handsomely.

    I thought I better say it because my most consdered predictions are nearly always wrong
  • Brexit happens, and then the more pertinent question is whether or not voters back Rejoin.

    That's certainly a pertinent question, but the ones that Johnson will be more concerned with will be, "Do the voters think that Brexit has made things worse?" and "Do the voters blame me for the way it turned out?"

    As a utopian lefty I am very familiar with the argument that "x would have worked fine if it had been done properly", and this is a more likely opinion for Leave-supporting voters to form were Brexit to turn out badly than, "clearly I made a terrible mistake voting Leave and we should now rejoin."

    What I find interesting about the YouGov tracker figures is that the "Wrong" numbers are very close to the proportion who voted Remain. The only reason that Wrong has a lead is because nearly one-quarter of the other 52% say "Don't Know" which is not an unreasonable answer for someone who might say "depends if they do it properly".
    The point you raise will be on the minds of people in those Northern Labour seats.

    And I don't think they'll take the risk of voting Boris Johnson in the end. I think they'll either not vote, or they'll stick with Labour.
    Possibilities:

    1. Labour keeps all its 2017 vote in these seats (seems highly unlikely at this stage) or enough of it to mean that the Tories are done out of the gains they need by what's left of the Faragist vote (more plausible.) Another Hung Parliament ensues.

    2. The pattern is rather more like that reported earlier today by a Sky correspondent visiting North Wales. A meaningful swing to Con amongst working class men, with the women either continuing to back Labour or abstaining. Probably leads to a Tory majority.

    3. Enough Labour Remain voters in these seats defect to the Lib Dems to allow the Tories to pick a load of them up, even on a static vote share. Almost certainly leads to a Tory majority.

    If Boris Johnson can keep his net favourability ratings well ahead of Corbyn's, and the Conservatives can wear down the Brexit Party vote share faster than Labour can reduce that of the Liberal Democrats, then the Tories are obviously in with an excellent chance of winning. If, on the other hand, enough of the Labour habit vote goes home by polling day then they don't.

    Keep on watching the Labour polling trend: I'm still afraid that it will keep on going up a la 2017, but if I'm wrong and they (and, by extension, the Lib Dems) level off, then Corbyn may be in serious difficulty.
    A lot can happen in a month though. We're making - again - certain predictions at the beginning of the campaign. The Tories seem to be convinced they're going to win and I think that broadband pledge caught them off guard.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,522

    AndyJS said:

    The problem with this election is that there are a lot of people who want to stop two things from happening just as much as each other: Corbyn being PM and Brexit. But as things stand it looks like the only way to stop Brexit is through some type of Corbyn-led government. So those voters have to decide which they dislike the least, and that's not a nice choice for many of them.

    Corbyn's the lesser of two evils for me.

    You can change Corbyn, sooner or later, one way or the other. Brexit is permanent. Even in the unlikely event we could rejoin, it would be decades hence and almost certainly on far worse terms.
    Brexit is the stupidest thing any major country has done in recent times. The world looks on in disbelief - they think we're mad.
    If we vote Corbyn into power or anything near it Brexit would however drop to second stupidest.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    EPG said:

    AndyJS said:
    It's true. Brexit is tearing up trade deals but getting richer. Brexit is free British owls. Brexit shifts the Overton window of time-wasting monomaniacal schemes. Brexit makes the daftest ideas sound less radical and easier than Brexit.
    You mean brexit is the gift to corbyn and crew that keeps giving?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Roger said:

    I think the Tories will win handsomely.

    I thought I better say it because my most considered predictions are nearly always wrong

    Based on the same reasoning, perhaps I should be predicting the inevitable triumph of the socialist march to power?

    Lab gain Buckingham.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,522
    Roger said:

    I think the Tories will win handsomely.

    I thought I better say it because my most consdered predictions are nearly always wrong

    I’m expecting Labour to win big.

    I’m hoping Corbyn is Ajinkya Rahane not Steve Smith.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,490

    AndyJS said:

    The problem with this election is that there are a lot of people who want to stop two things from happening just as much as each other: Corbyn being PM and Brexit. But as things stand it looks like the only way to stop Brexit is through some type of Corbyn-led government. So those voters have to decide which they dislike the least, and that's not a nice choice for many of them.

    Corbyn's the lesser of two evils for me.

    You can change Corbyn, sooner or later, one way or the other. Brexit is permanent. Even in the unlikely event we could rejoin, it would be decades hence and almost certainly on far worse terms.
    Brexit is the stupidest thing any major country has done in recent times. The world looks on in disbelief - they think we're mad.
    I want to stop it now too, but that's because I think it now the wrong move, you dont decide policy based on other countries thinking it's a bad idea, they might well think that for things that would be a good idea. Unless you think other countries should not do things they and their country want because we think its mad or bad, that countries sub contract out their politics to the nebulous international community.

    It makes the 'they think we are mad' refrain very odd to me and another example of how both leave and remain have often been bad at putting their own case forward. People obviously think it's a killer argument since they bring it up all the time, but personally it was our own inability to demonstrate we will handle Brexit well which seems stronger, not that god forbid other countries dont think it's good.
  • Brexit happens, and then the more pertinent question is whether or not voters back Rejoin.

    That's certainly a pertinent question, but the ones that Johnson will be more concerned with will be, "Do the voters think that Brexit has made things worse?" and "Do the voters blame me

    What I find interesting about the YouGov tracker figures is that the "Wrong" numbers are very close to the proportion who voted Remain. The only reason that Wrong has a lead is because nearly one-quarter of the other 52% say "Don't Know" which is not an unreasonable answer for someone who might say "depends if they do it properly".
    The point you raise will be on the minds of people in those Northern Labour seats.

    And I don't think they'll take the risk of voting Boris Johnson in the end. I think they'll either not vote, or they'll stick with Labour.
    Possibilities:

    1. Labour keeps all its 2017 vote in these seats (seems highly unlikely at this stage) or enough of it to mean that the Tories are done out of the gains they need by what's left of the Faragist vote (more plausible.) Another Hung Parliament ensues.

    2. The pattern is rather more like that reported earlier today by a Sky correspondent visiting North Wales. A meaningful swing to Con amongst working class men, with the women either continuing to back Labour or abstaining. Probably leads to a Tory majority.

    3. Enough Labour Remain voters in these seats defect to the Lib Dems to allow the Tories to pick a load of them up, even on a static vote share. Almost certainly leads to a Tory majority.

    If Boris Johnson can keep his net favourability ratings well ahead of Corbyn's, and the Conservatives can wear down the Brexit Party vote share faster than Labour can reduce that of the Liberal Democrats, then the Tories are obviously in with an excellent chance of winning. If, on the other hand, enough of the Labour habit vote goes home by polling day then they don't.

    Keep on watching the Labour polling trend: I'm still afraid that it will keep on going up a la 2017, but if I'm wrong and they (and, by extension, the Lib Dems) level off, then Corbyn may be in serious difficulty.
    A lot can happen in a month though. We're making - again - certain predictions at the beginning of the campaign. The Tories seem to be convinced they're going to win and I think that broadband pledge caught them off guard.
    The broadband pledge is madness from Jez. Appeals to those already voting for him - suspect that Labours internal polling is dire if they are throwing this Hail Mary.
  • funkhauserfunkhauser Posts: 325
    edited November 2019
    nunu2 said:

    I have a feeling the weekend polls will show an increased Tory lead, like panel base.

    What about all the Labour freebies?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    So are we saying that after PB Tories lost their shit and said "this time, this time Labour have announced a policy so communist, so traitorous Labour support will collapse" YouGov released polling showing the public was in favour?

    Again?

    I take it PB Tories took the huge unexpected shock with grace and calm and didn't start calling the electorate stupid and uneducated?
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    edited November 2019
    kle4 said:

    Noo said:

    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    AndyJS said:
    It’s particularly amusing to see Tories claiming that Labour’s latest broadband proposals would breach EU state aid rules when the whole point of Brexit is not to comply with such rules.

    It’s not as if they were not warned that Brexit would enable Corbyn - both by making his victory more likely and removing any restraints on his government.
    I don't think this is quite the clever point you seem to think it is. Since Labour's policy is not definitely to Brexit, indeed it is that Remain could still happen (and we know its members and voters want that), it is not absurd to point out (assuming they are right) that they could not do this plan under current rules. That under Tory plans they might be able to do such a thing, if they thought it a good idea, is neither here nor there to whether for Labour it makes sense. 'You'd have to Brexit to do that plan' might even dissuade some Labour supporters from liking the plan. If Labour think you could do it within the EU, that's different.
    It's amusing because were Labour to win the election, some of those Conservatives would be clawing to stay in the EU just to put a stop to Corbyn's plans. It would require a heart of stone and brain of wet bread not to smirk at that thought.
    Yes, that makes it amusing, and the point that Brexiting would enable things many Brexiteers really do not want, however the quote was 'It’s particularly amusing to see Tories claiming that Labour’s latest broadband proposals would breach EU state aid rules when the whole point of Brexit is not to comply with such rules'. Since Labour are not, in fact, committed to Brexiting yet, and may not ever be, it hardly matters if the point of Brexit is not to comply with those rules, since Labour might well commit to us complying with those rules, and there's nothing inherently ridiculous about Brexiteers not wanting to comply with the rules of the EU also not wanting to take some actions that would become available. Just because Brexit enables certain options doesn't mean anyone who backs it is ridiculous for not wanting some of those options.
    I really don’t think remainers understand how the average Leaver thinks. I won’t speak for them all, but the EU being able to stop Corbyn from doing something he’s been elected to do is yet another reason for me to want to leave. Even though I bitterly dislike Corbyn’s agenda.

    Part of being free and believing in democracy is understanding that sometimes someone is in power who does things you dislike, or even hate, and that’s ok. The freedom is the real prize.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,490
    edited November 2019
    Labour: business and the tories want to stop us giving you free stuff.

    It does feel to me one promise a bit too far beyond plausible but I doubt it will horrify that many. - we know people are generally in favour or neutral on most such plans in theory at least. Though as I noted previously it's the first GE story I've had spontaneously mentioned to me , so its grabbed attention for better and worse.
  • Guardian saying how it is to be fair

    It will keep on unravelling
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,248
    Despite its religious divisions, NI has an almost perfect Remainer alliance in close seats between SF and SDLP, mainly Catholic; Alliance, mainly Protestant; and the Greens, who are on the left. Only in Belfast North will SF and Alliance contest a close, winnable seat, and only in Fermanagh and South Tyrone will SF and SDLP face off while risking a victory from no-deal sympathiser Tom Elliott of the Ulster Unionists. (Belfast South will not be competitive.)
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,623

    On topic: Isn't the most striking thing about these numbers that they don't seem to have changed much during the year? There doesn't seem to be any great trend towards buyer's remorse here.

    In any case it's the wrong question. It's perfectly possible, indeed very reasonable, for people to hold the view that it was the wrong decision but should be implemented because that was the decision taken by the electorate. It's also perfectly possible to hold the view that we can't in any case go back to the status quo ante.

    But we can. There will always be half the electorate upset. Both sides feel cheated. They lied their way to victory. Our side lost in a skewed contest.
  • kle4 said:

    Labour: business and the tories want to stop us giving you free stuff.

    It does feel to me one promise a bit too far beyond plausible but I doubt it will horrify that many. Though as I noted previously it's the first GE story I've had spontaneously mentioned to me , so its grabbed attention for better and worse.
    Spoiler - it’s not free.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    egg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    nunu2 said:

    I have a feeling the weekend polls will show an increased Tory lead, like panel base.

    Certainly wouldn't be surprised...
    At what point have they squeezed the BREX sponge dry and will need votes from lab and libd to advance further in 40’s? Is 43 the ceiling where It needs polls with lab minus Lib minus for Tory plus?
    At a guess about 45%.

    Of course, if the Tories stay anywhere in the 40s then Labour needs the Lib Dem vote share to collapse if they're going to have a reasonable chance of securing another Hung Parliament.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    AndyJS said:

    If Remainers are prepared to vote intelligently, the Tories will be out.

    It depends on the shares. If Tories + BRX = 49% or 50% it's difficult for that to happen. Today's Panelbase had them on 48% collectively.
    That 48 figure seems on the high side, it’s oft remarked on here that 46 is that magic number that keeps coming up, but during campaign it’s crept up from 46.

    Possibly though the Tory figure still has some remainers shy to say they are voting for remain option? Also if there are any BREX left come polling day they will be sort not to tactically help Tories but vote against them?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,107
    Alistair said:

    So are we saying that after PB Tories lost their shit and said "this time, this time Labour have announced a policy so communist, so traitorous Labour support will collapse" YouGov released polling showing the public was in favour?

    Again?

    I take it PB Tories took the huge unexpected shock with grace and calm and didn't start calling the electorate stupid and uneducated?

    That was referring to the state owning ISPs. I don't think the polling showed the public was in favour of that.
  • In Feb Buttigieg was 270 for POTUS, now 12.5.

  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453

    nunu2 said:

    I have a feeling the weekend polls will show an increased Tory lead, like panel base.

    What about all the Labour freebies?
    The broadband proposals are rather different to rail or water nationalisation.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,596
    Freggles said:

    PB hive mind. Do election leaflets for the royal mail unaddressed candidate mail drop need a "region" on or just constituency?

    Election communications should be by constituency
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,490
    edited November 2019

    kle4 said:

    Labour: business and the tories want to stop us giving you free stuff.

    It does feel to me one promise a bit too far beyond plausible but I doubt it will horrify that many. Though as I noted previously it's the first GE story I've had spontaneously mentioned to me , so its grabbed attention for better and worse.
    Spoiler - it’s not free.
    Spoiler, I didn't say it was, nor does it matter - I was postulating how labour would frame a reaction to such a headline.
  • nunu2 said:

    nunu2 said:

    I have a feeling the weekend polls will show an increased Tory lead, like panel base.

    What about all the Labour freebies?
    The broadband proposals are rather different to rail or water nationalisation.
    Yes, even barmier, if that is possible.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,522

    In Feb Buttigieg was 270 for POTUS, now 12.5.

    But surely he needs to be at 270 to be POTUS?

    Ah, my coat...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,596

    Freggles said:

    PB hive mind. Do election leaflets for the royal mail unaddressed candidate mail drop need a "region" on or just constituency?

    Presumably the "region" referred to in the Royal Mail documentation is an electoral region for elections that have them; a General Election has only constituencies.
    It’s more likely to refer to RM’s managerial geography
  • egg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    nunu2 said:

    I have a feeling the weekend polls will show an increased Tory lead, like panel base.

    Certainly wouldn't be surprised...
    At what point have they squeezed the BREX sponge dry and will need votes from lab and libd to advance further in 40’s? Is 43 the ceiling where It needs polls with lab minus Lib minus for Tory plus?
    At a guess about 45%.

    Of course, if the Tories stay anywhere in the 40s then Labour needs the Lib Dem vote share to collapse if they're going to have a reasonable chance of securing another Hung Parliament.
    2017 - Lab + Con = 82.4 %

    Still some way off that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,490
    Roger said:

    On topic: Isn't the most striking thing about these numbers that they don't seem to have changed much during the year? There doesn't seem to be any great trend towards buyer's remorse here.

    In any case it's the wrong question. It's perfectly possible, indeed very reasonable, for people to hold the view that it was the wrong decision but should be implemented because that was the decision taken by the electorate. It's also perfectly possible to hold the view that we can't in any case go back to the status quo ante.

    But we can. There will always be half the electorate upset. Both sides feel cheated. They lied their way to victory. Our side lost in a skewed contest.
    Lies were pointed out at the time.
This discussion has been closed.