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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Throughout the whole of 2019 every time YouGov has asked its Brexit Tracker question voters those polled have said it’s wrong
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On topic, If a majority of people not only think Brexit is wrong but wish to stop it, the power is in their hands, particularly those in marginal seats. They know what choice will stop Brexit (or at least might) and what choice definitely will not, and it's up to the public to be smart about it.
But, hey, this is based on no knowledge or canvassing whatsoever. So what do I know.
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1195343325718601728
The issue is, of course, that the Leave vote is more united, and if the Conservatives can leverage that into a working majority of one or more in the next HoC then this question becomes an effective irrelevance. Brexit happens, and then the more pertinent question is whether or not voters back Rejoin.
The other reasons are that not that much has really changed since the last election. Boris is not self-evidently a better campaigner than May, and when the campaign proper begins, we can expect to see that Corbyn is in his element, as he was last time.
2/1 against an HP is simply too big.
It might be Labour, LibDem or Green in England.
In Wales, add PC. In Scotland, add SNP.
There's been a discussion of tactical voting on Twitter. Apparently most of the sites do in fact agree what to do in most constituencies.
To cite two seats I know slightly, in Mole Valley vote Lib.Dem; in Milton Keynes South vote Labour. Mole Valley will stay Tory, say my relatives there and that looks very likely. But M.Keynes S could easily go Labour. A Labour-run referendum is better than leaving.
It’s not as if they were not warned that Brexit would enable Corbyn - both by making his victory more likely and removing any restraints on his government.
As a utopian lefty I am very familiar with the argument that "x would have worked fine if it had been done properly", and this is a more likely opinion for Leave-supporting voters to form were Brexit to turn out badly than, "clearly I made a terrible mistake voting Leave and we should now rejoin."
What I find interesting about the YouGov tracker figures is that the "Wrong" numbers are very close to the proportion who voted Remain. The only reason that Wrong has a lead is because nearly one-quarter of the other 52% say "Don't Know" which is not an unreasonable answer for someone who might say "depends if they do it properly".
And I don't think they'll take the risk of voting Boris Johnson in the end. I think they'll either not vote, or they'll stick with Labour.
I'm not at all convinced this is a good strategy, electorally.
By way of example, I can tell you a perfectly intelligent remain-voting friend asked me recently if Brexit had happened yet.
You can change Corbyn, sooner or later, one way or the other. Brexit is permanent. Even in the unlikely event we could rejoin, it would be decades hence and almost certainly on far worse terms.
May reach 80%.
I also would have told them footage of the Martian invasion being screened live by BBC on Sunday night.
No BREXIT and no insane LAB budget!
1. Labour keeps all its 2017 vote in these seats (seems highly unlikely at this stage) or enough of it to mean that the Tories are done out of the gains they need by what's left of the Faragist vote (more plausible.) Another Hung Parliament ensues.
2. The pattern is rather more like that reported earlier today by a Sky correspondent visiting North Wales. A meaningful swing to Con amongst working class men, with the women either continuing to back Labour or abstaining. Probably leads to a Tory majority.
3. Enough Labour Remain voters in these seats defect to the Lib Dems to allow the Tories to pick a load of them up, even on a static vote share. Almost certainly leads to a Tory majority.
If Boris Johnson can keep his net favourability ratings well ahead of Corbyn's, and the Conservatives can wear down the Brexit Party vote share faster than Labour can reduce that of the Liberal Democrats, then the Tories are obviously in with an excellent chance of winning. If, on the other hand, enough of the Labour habit vote goes home by polling day then they don't.
Keep on watching the Labour polling trend: I'm still afraid that it will keep on going up a la 2017, but if I'm wrong and they (and, by extension, the Lib Dems) level off, then Corbyn may be in serious difficulty.
What a mess.
Of course we might make the same stupid choice again, but at least we'd all thoroughly deserve it then.. No more complaining about lies on the sides of buses.
Of course, a series of stonking Conservative leads won't make us Corbophobics breathe any easier. The next problem to worry about in that case will be the Tory soft Remain vote feeling that Labour is no longer a threat and, therefore, that they're free to defect to the Lib Dems...
In any case it's the wrong question. It's perfectly possible, indeed very reasonable, for people to hold the view that it was the wrong decision but should be implemented because that was the decision taken by the electorate. It's also perfectly possible to hold the view that we can't in any case go back to the status quo ante.
I thought I better say it because my most consdered predictions are nearly always wrong
Lab gain Buckingham.
I’m hoping Corbyn is Ajinkya Rahane not Steve Smith.
It makes the 'they think we are mad' refrain very odd to me and another example of how both leave and remain have often been bad at putting their own case forward. People obviously think it's a killer argument since they bring it up all the time, but personally it was our own inability to demonstrate we will handle Brexit well which seems stronger, not that god forbid other countries dont think it's good.
Iowa.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/470565-buttigieg-surges-ahead-of-iowa-caucuses
Just saying...
Again?
I take it PB Tories took the huge unexpected shock with grace and calm and didn't start calling the electorate stupid and uneducated?
Part of being free and believing in democracy is understanding that sometimes someone is in power who does things you dislike, or even hate, and that’s ok. The freedom is the real prize.
It does feel to me one promise a bit too far beyond plausible but I doubt it will horrify that many. - we know people are generally in favour or neutral on most such plans in theory at least. Though as I noted previously it's the first GE story I've had spontaneously mentioned to me , so its grabbed attention for better and worse.
It will keep on unravelling
Of course, if the Tories stay anywhere in the 40s then Labour needs the Lib Dem vote share to collapse if they're going to have a reasonable chance of securing another Hung Parliament.
Possibly though the Tory figure still has some remainers shy to say they are voting for remain option? Also if there are any BREX left come polling day they will be sort not to tactically help Tories but vote against them?
Ah, my coat...
Still some way off that.