politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Just six months ago Betfair punters were making LAB the favourite to win most seats
The above betdata.io chart shows how views of the general election “seat winner” market have changed so much in the past six months. On May 12th Corbyn’s party was rated as a 48.1% chance ahead of what was then TMay’s Tories.
If Labour suffers a 4th successive defeat like 1992 (Corbyn like Kinnock losing again on his 2nd attempt) and does not pick a more centrist leader like John Smith or Tony Blair but another Corbynista, the LDs will likely replace them as the main non Tory Party, perhaps under Chuka Umunna
The right to give inheritance attaches to the owner of the assets and forms part of his or her property rights. There is no right to receive an inheritance and there is a strong public interest in not encouraging people to become reliant on their parents and grandparents, instead encouraging them to use their own talents. So there is no ground to object to taxation of inheritance in the hands of the recipients.
In order to respect property rights, tax on inheritance and gifts should be kept at a reasonable level (50% feels about right). But up to that level, legatees can have no complaints if they are forced to share their windfall with the state.
If Labour suffers a 4th successive defeat like 1992 (Corbyn like Kinnock losing again on his 2nd attempt) and does not pick a more centrist leader like John Smith or Tony Blair but another Corbynista, the LDs will likely replace them as the main non Tory Party, perhaps under Chuka Umunna
John Smith IIRC was seen as a safe pair of hands rather than a centrist. Paradoxically, his shadow budget for that election (increased ni) is thought to have cost Labour seats. I would not measure current political events through the past as we are on the third Tory PM in this cycle of Government and only 9 years into it! The Tories have not 'won' yet, the result for the Tories could still fall on the bad side...
Oh it will, this will destroy Labour with middle income swing voters if it gains traction given the average house price is now over £200 000
I mentioned this earlier, but many sources had the figure that average inheritance a person can expect to receive in their life was £11k, so this will still not affect most people.
Whilst av house price is above 200k, most people have more than one inheritor, many will have outstanding debts at death, be that mortgage or taking money out of their homes for renovations or pension top ups, and many older people will have to sell their homes to cover care costs.
and I tell you what @HYUFD the average house price is not over £200,000 in the kind of Northern seats you think you’re going to win.
What about London and the South though? The average house price is around 300k even in Hayes and Harlington which is far from the nicest part of London
Vs. 2017 manifesto, Labour need to find more money somewhere.
The inheritance tax proposal seems risky to me, but it is possible that it enables a battleline to be drawn between Labour (on the side of workers) and Tories (on the side of millionaires and unearned income).
Oh it will, this will destroy Labour with middle income swing voters if it gains traction given the average house price is now over £200 000
I don't understand why Labour think this is a good idea, wont all those with a fairly significant wealth just continue or go back to putting things into Trusts to avoid IHT completely like they did before the threshold went up? so the people who might contribute a worthwhile amount will avoid it and it will catch out all the wrong people?
If Labour suffers a 4th successive defeat like 1992 (Corbyn like Kinnock losing again on his 2nd attempt) and does not pick a more centrist leader like John Smith or Tony Blair but another Corbynista, the LDs will likely replace them as the main non Tory Party, perhaps under Chuka Umunna
Really? If that hasn't happened already, what will be different next time? I mean, I'd be quite happy with that outcome, but my view is that these realignments simply don't happen. The electorate simply doesn't change its voting habits. Too much tribalism for that, too much voting against party x rather than in favour of party y.
and I tell you what @HYUFD the average house price is not over £200,000 in the kind of Northern seats you think you’re going to win.
What about London and the South though? The average house price is around 300k even in Hayes and Harlington which is far from the nicest part of London
What percentage of Labour’s support in London owns London property?
and I tell you what @HYUFD the average house price is not over £200,000 in the kind of Northern seats you think you’re going to win.
What about London and the South though? The average house price is around 300k even in Hayes and Harlington which is far from the nicest part of London
What percentage of Labour’s support in London owns London property?
On my travels to and within the US, I was surprised to meet various Americans planning to leave their country in anticipation of Trump’s re-election (which tbf looks rather less certain now than then). It seems our own country may be heading the same way.
Labour have never forgotten how to shoot themselves in the foot. It's always a mystery what people see in certain leaders that is totally invisible to 90% of the rest of us. IDS never made sense.. You could walk around any medium sized town in the UK and never bump into one so unattractive
It will big time. Corbyn's Santa Tax will be his dementia tax
What votes? Which demographics in which seats?
Who do you think was until today saying “Yeah I’ll vote for Corbyn. He’s the absolute boy.” will now suddenly be like “Shit. My house. Best vote Tory”?
The inheritance tax proposal seems risky to me, but it is possible that it enables a battleline to be drawn between Labour (on the side of workers) and Tories (on the side of millionaires and unearned income).
What the electorate really wants is massive spending increases, paid for by other people. When massive tax rises will hit them .......
and I tell you what @HYUFD the average house price is not over £200,000 in the kind of Northern seats you think you’re going to win.
What about London and the South though? The average house price is around 300k even in Hayes and Harlington which is far from the nicest part of London
What percentage of Labour’s support in London owns London property?
The right to give inheritance attaches to the owner of the assets and forms part of his or her property rights. There is no right to receive an inheritance and there is a strong public interest in not encouraging people to become reliant on their parents and grandparents, instead encouraging them to use their own talents. So there is no ground to object to taxation of inheritance in the hands of the recipients.
In order to respect property rights, tax on inheritance and gifts should be kept at a reasonable level (50% feels about right). But up to that level, legatees can have no complaints if they are forced to share their windfall with the state.
I have known people who have spent their whole lives 'looking forward' to receiving their inheritance, these have been people who have had very little to offer on a personal or professional basis and have actually shown no real interest in their parents' welfare. One who I used to work with, who received a 7 figure inheritance and who had only progressed to a junior position on his own merits, then spent most of his time whinging about inheritance tax.
So - Alastair - as someone who has reached the top 2% of personal wealth in this country entirely on my own efforts - I concur with you entirely.
and I tell you what @HYUFD the average house price is not over £200,000 in the kind of Northern seats you think you’re going to win.
What about London and the South though? The average house price is around 300k even in Hayes and Harlington which is far from the nicest part of London
What percentage of Labour’s support in London owns London property?
It isn't what they have now, it is what people aspire to have. It goes against what so many people want to achieve in life i.e. work hard, buy a home, and ultimately pass things on to their kids so they have a better life.
Now, when it comes to unafforable housing, now that is something that really gets people heckles up.
The right to give inheritance attaches to the owner of the assets and forms part of his or her property rights. There is no right to receive an inheritance and there is a strong public interest in not encouraging people to become reliant on their parents and grandparents, instead encouraging them to use their own talents. So there is no ground to object to taxation of inheritance in the hands of the recipients.
In order to respect property rights, tax on inheritance and gifts should be kept at a reasonable level (50% feels about right). But up to that level, legatees can have no complaints if they are forced to share their windfall with the state.
Some of my clients would see those as fighting words.
Disputes over inheritance can be absolutely vicious.
Oh it will, this will destroy Labour with middle income swing voters if it gains traction given the average house price is now over £200 000
I mentioned this earlier, but many sources had the figure that average inheritance a person can expect to receive in their life was £11k, so this will still not affect most people.
Whilst av house price is above 200k, most people have more than one inheritor, many will have outstanding debts at death, be that mortgage or taking money out of their homes for renovations or pension top ups, and many older people will have to sell their homes to cover care costs.
This will not just register with people impacted now but with strivers who see it might impact them and can anyway clearly see the direction of travel - "if we think you've got too much, we'll find ways of taking it from you and your children".
Start messing with people's houses then there's trouble.
Ask T May.
Different dynamic at work. Labour voters are less likley to be home owners. Obviously you will always find people who are the exception to the rule. It strikes me the Tories are totally focused on fighting the last election and substituting policies they believed cost them votes with the opposite. The Tories focus on 'Labour project fear' is ridiculous in that Tory policy to leave the EU causes a fundamental downward force on growth in the economy.
Start messing with people's houses then there's trouble.
Ask T May.
Different dynamic at work. Labour voters are less likley to be home owners. Obviously you will always find people who are the exception to the rule. It strikes me the Tories are totally focused on fighting the last election and substituting policies they believed cost them votes with the opposite. The Tories focus on 'Labour project fear' is ridiculous in that Tory policy to leave the EU causes a fundamental downward force on growth in the economy.
Over 60% of the country are still homeowners, win most of them and big Tory majority
Start messing with people's houses then there's trouble.
Ask T May.
Different dynamic at work. Labour voters are less likley to be home owners. Obviously you will always find people who are the exception to the rule. It strikes me the Tories are totally focused on fighting the last election and substituting policies they believed cost them votes with the opposite. The Tories focus on 'Labour project fear' is ridiculous in that Tory policy to leave the EU causes a fundamental downward force on growth in the economy.
Over 60% of the country are still homeowners, win most of them and big Tory majority
Also, lets not forget, Thatcher won because she gave people the vision of work hard, buy a home, save and invest, and thus to able to make your kids lives better than yours.
Not work hard, get a home, then the state will take basically all the equity and leave you nothing to give your kids. It is why the dementia tax was so toxic.
It will big time. Corbyn's Santa Tax will be his dementia tax
What votes? Which demographics in which seats?
Who do you think was until today saying “Yeah I’ll vote for Corbyn. He’s the absolute boy.” will now suddenly be like “Shit. My house. Best vote Tory”?
There are millions of children and grandchildren across the country who will be affected by this. It is just pure envy and as others have said, Corbyn's Santa Death Tax will become the dementia tax of this election. We still have over 62% owner occupation in this country
The right to give inheritance attaches to the owner of the assets and forms part of his or her property rights. There is no right to receive an inheritance and there is a strong public interest in not encouraging people to become reliant on their parents and grandparents, instead encouraging them to use their own talents. So there is no ground to object to taxation of inheritance in the hands of the recipients.
In order to respect property rights, tax on inheritance and gifts should be kept at a reasonable level (50% feels about right). But up to that level, legatees can have no complaints if they are forced to share their windfall with the state.
I wonder how they will deal with inheritances that go abroad if it is the recipient that is being taxed, and not the estate?
It will big time. Corbyn's Santa Tax will be his dementia tax
What votes? Which demographics in which seats?
Who do you think was until today saying “Yeah I’ll vote for Corbyn. He’s the absolute boy.” will now suddenly be like “Shit. My house. Best vote Tory”?
There are millions of children and grandchildren across the country who will be affected by this. It is just pure envy and as others have said, Corbyn's Santa Death Tax will become the dementia tax of this election. We still have over 62% owner occupation in this country
The present system is sensible and equitable
I ask again: what child or grandchild who until today thought Corbyn was the absolute boy, after everything, will now decide to vote Tory because they might have to pay a tax someday in the distant future?
The right to give inheritance attaches to the owner of the assets and forms part of his or her property rights. There is no right to receive an inheritance and there is a strong public interest in not encouraging people to become reliant on their parents and grandparents, instead encouraging them to use their own talents. So there is no ground to object to taxation of inheritance in the hands of the recipients.
In order to respect property rights, tax on inheritance and gifts should be kept at a reasonable level (50% feels about right). But up to that level, legatees can have no complaints if they are forced to share their windfall with the state.
I wonder how they will deal with inheritances that go abroad if it is the recipient that is being taxed, and not the estate?
If Labour suffers a 4th successive defeat like 1992 (Corbyn like Kinnock losing again on his 2nd attempt) and does not pick a more centrist leader like John Smith or Tony Blair but another Corbynista, the LDs will likely replace them as the main non Tory Party, perhaps under Chuka Umunna
Really? If that hasn't happened already, what will be different next time? I mean, I'd be quite happy with that outcome, but my view is that these realignments simply don't happen. The electorate simply doesn't change its voting habits. Too much tribalism for that, too much voting against party x rather than in favour of party y.
Had Foot stayed Labour leader after 1983 the SDP may have overtaken them, they were just 2% behind Labour in 2983
Oh it will, this will destroy Labour with middle income swing voters if it gains traction given the average house price is now over £200 000
I don't understand why Labour think this is a good idea, wont all those with a fairly significant wealth just continue or go back to putting things into Trusts to avoid IHT completely like they did before the threshold went up? so the people who might contribute a worthwhile amount will avoid it and it will catch out all the wrong people?
I think the point with changing the tax to be on inheritance received, rather than inheritance given, is that it will tax the income from trusts which currently escapes IHT. If that is the case then they can afford to be generous with the rates and thresholds.
If they aren't generous with the thresholds then either I've misunderstood something, Labour are crap at politics, or both.
Start messing with people's houses then there's trouble.
Ask T May.
Different dynamic at work. Labour voters are less likley to be home owners. Obviously you will always find people who are the exception to the rule. It strikes me the Tories are totally focused on fighting the last election and substituting policies they believed cost them votes with the opposite. The Tories focus on 'Labour project fear' is ridiculous in that Tory policy to leave the EU causes a fundamental downward force on growth in the economy.
It will big time. Corbyn's Santa Tax will be his dementia tax
What votes? Which demographics in which seats?
Who do you think was until today saying “Yeah I’ll vote for Corbyn. He’s the absolute boy.” will now suddenly be like “Shit. My house. Best vote Tory”?
There are millions of children and grandchildren across the country who will be affected by this. It is just pure envy and as others have said, Corbyn's Santa Death Tax will become the dementia tax of this election. We still have over 62% owner occupation in this country
The present system is sensible and equitable
I ask again: what child or grandchild who until today thought Corbyn was the absolute boy, after everything, will now decide to vote Tory because they might have to pay a tax someday in the distant future?
It doesn't always have to be direct transfers from Labour to Tory.
Oh it will, this will destroy Labour with middle income swing voters if it gains traction given the average house price is now over £200 000
I mentioned this earlier, but many sources had the figure that average inheritance a person can expect to receive in their life was £11k, so this will still not affect most people.
Whilst av house price is above 200k, most people have more than one inheritor, many will have outstanding debts at death, be that mortgage or taking money out of their homes for renovations or pension top ups, and many older people will have to sell their homes to cover care costs.
The average inheritance is now £119 000, very close to Labour's new £125 000 gift tax threshold
It will big time. Corbyn's Santa Tax will be his dementia tax
What votes? Which demographics in which seats?
Who do you think was until today saying “Yeah I’ll vote for Corbyn. He’s the absolute boy.” will now suddenly be like “Shit. My house. Best vote Tory”?
There are millions of children and grandchildren across the country who will be affected by this. It is just pure envy and as others have said, Corbyn's Santa Death Tax will become the dementia tax of this election. We still have over 62% owner occupation in this country
The present system is sensible and equitable
I ask again: what child or grandchild who until today thought Corbyn was the absolute boy, after everything, will now decide to vote Tory because they might have to pay a tax someday in the distant future?
It doesn't always have to be direct transfers from Labour to Tory.
I understand that. Obviously there will be some movement but I’m questioning the view that this will cause some sort of avalanche of voters to the Tories. I can’t see it.
Where Ed Miliband had a point (but I am not sure how much the state can do about it, as it is driven mostly by the rise in developing countries) is the long standing contract of work hard, your life will improve and your kids lives will be better than yours.
Labour would be far better concentrating on that, rather than work hard, make your life better, but we are going to then reset the system for your kids.
The Tories should really be focused on this too, especially more on getting people access to homes. Owning a home is a British religion in the same way the NHS is.
It will big time. Corbyn's Santa Tax will be his dementia tax
What votes? Which demographics in which seats?
Who do you think was until today saying “Yeah I’ll vote for Corbyn. He’s the absolute boy.” will now suddenly be like “Shit. My house. Best vote Tory”?
There are millions of children and grandchildren across the country who will be affected by this. It is just pure envy and as others have said, Corbyn's Santa Death Tax will become the dementia tax of this election. We still have over 62% owner occupation in this country
The present system is sensible and equitable
I ask again: what child or grandchild who until today thought Corbyn was the absolute boy, after everything, will now decide to vote Tory because they might have to pay a tax someday in the distant future?
It doesn't always have to be direct transfers from Labour to Tory.
I understand that. Obviously there will be some movement but I’m questioning the view that this will cause some sort of avalanche of voters to the Tories. I can’t see it.
Well in 2007 it seemed to do the trick for the Tories. There was a huge conference bump on the back of the announcement.
Oh it will, this will destroy Labour with middle income swing voters given the average house price is now over £200 000
Nah. Everyone knows Corbyn’s Labour is into taxation.
The current Labour vote base either does not own property or is happy to be taxed for the greater good.
The current Labour voter base is 28% ie Foot 1983 levels
Exactly my point.
The current Tory voter base is 42%, so if this policy keeps them voting Tory and rich LD Remainers stay LD as a result it is a Tory landslide for Boris
Oh it will, this will destroy Labour with middle income swing voters given the average house price is now over £200 000
Nah. Everyone knows Corbyn’s Labour is into taxation.
The current Labour vote base either does not own property or is happy to be taxed for the greater good.
The current Labour voter base is 28% ie Foot 1983 levels
Exactly my point.
The current Tory voter base is 42%, so if this policy keeps them voting Tory and rich LD Remainers stay LD as a result it is a Tory landslide for Boris
Start messing with people's houses then there's trouble.
Ask T May.
Different dynamic at work. Labour voters are less likley to be home owners. Obviously you will always find people who are the exception to the rule. It strikes me the Tories are totally focused on fighting the last election and substituting policies they believed cost them votes with the opposite. The Tories focus on 'Labour project fear' is ridiculous in that Tory policy to leave the EU causes a fundamental downward force on growth in the economy.
Over 60% of the country are still homeowners, win most of them and big Tory majority
Also, lets not forget, Thatcher won because she gave people the vision of work hard, buy a home, save and invest, and thus to able to make your kids lives better than yours.
Not work hard, get a home, then the state will take basically all the equity and leave you nothing to give your kids. It is why the dementia tax was so toxic.
State looks after you when you've got dementia = hooray! State takes money from you to pay for looking after you when you've got dementia = boo!
Oh it will, this will destroy Labour with middle income swing voters if it gains traction given the average house price is now over £200 000
I mentioned this earlier, but many sources had the figure that average inheritance a person can expect to receive in their life was £11k, so this will still not affect most people.
Whilst av house price is above 200k, most people have more than one inheritor, many will have outstanding debts at death, be that mortgage or taking money out of their homes for renovations or pension top ups, and many older people will have to sell their homes to cover care costs.
The average inheritance is now £119 000, very close to Labour's new £125 000 gift tax threshold
Start messing with people's houses then there's trouble.
Ask T May.
Different dynamic at work. Labour voters are less likley to be home owners. Obviously you will always find people who are the exception to the rule. It strikes me the Tories are totally focused on fighting the last election and substituting policies they believed cost them votes with the opposite. The Tories focus on 'Labour project fear' is ridiculous in that Tory policy to leave the EU causes a fundamental downward force on growth in the economy.
Over 60% of the country are still homeowners, win most of them and big Tory majority
Also, lets not forget, Thatcher won because she gave people the vision of work hard, buy a home, save and invest, and thus to able to make your kids lives better than yours.
Not work hard, get a home, then the state will take basically all the equity and leave you nothing to give your kids. It is why the dementia tax was so toxic.
It will big time. Corbyn's Santa Tax will be his dementia tax
What votes? Which demographics in which seats?
Who do you think was until today saying “Yeah I’ll vote for Corbyn. He’s the absolute boy.” will now suddenly be like “Shit. My house. Best vote Tory”?
There are millions of children and grandchildren across the country who will be affected by this. It is just pure envy and as others have said, Corbyn's Santa Death Tax will become the dementia tax of this election. We still have over 62% owner occupation in this country
The present system is sensible and equitable
I ask again: what child or grandchild who until today thought Corbyn was the absolute boy, after everything, will now decide to vote Tory because they might have to pay a tax someday in the distant future?
It doesn't always have to be direct transfers from Labour to Tory.
I understand that. Obviously there will be some movement but I’m questioning the view that this will cause some sort of avalanche of voters to the Tories. I can’t see it.
Start messing with people's houses then there's trouble.
Ask T May.
Different dynamic at work. Labour voters are less likley to be home owners. Obviously you will always find people who are the exception to the rule. It strikes me the Tories are totally focused on fighting the last election and substituting policies they believed cost them votes with the opposite. The Tories focus on 'Labour project fear' is ridiculous in that Tory policy to leave the EU causes a fundamental downward force on growth in the economy.
Over 60% of the country are still homeowners, win most of them and big Tory majority
How many of the sixty percent own property above the threshold and if they have more than 2 children: it starts looking less unfavourable. The other thing you have to remember is inheritence can disappear due to care requirements, adaptation to houses (some people can get help but iirc not everyone)and the like. You also have the increase in equity release.
Start messing with people's houses then there's trouble.
Ask T May.
Different dynamic at work. Labour voters are less likley to be home owners. Obviously you will always find people who are the exception to the rule. It strikes me the Tories are totally focused on fighting the last election and substituting policies they believed cost them votes with the opposite. The Tories focus on 'Labour project fear' is ridiculous in that Tory policy to leave the EU causes a fundamental downward force on growth in the economy.
Over 60% of the country are still homeowners, win most of them and big Tory majority
Also, lets not forget, Thatcher won because she gave people the vision of work hard, buy a home, save and invest, and thus to able to make your kids lives better than yours.
Not work hard, get a home, then the state will take basically all the equity and leave you nothing to give your kids. It is why the dementia tax was so toxic.
State looks after you when you've got dementia = hooray! State takes money from you to pay for looking after you when you've got dementia = boo!
That's how it went down among the British public. May lost her large lead among the middle classes within a week.
Start messing with people's houses then there's trouble.
Ask T May.
Different dynamic at work. Labour voters are less likley to be home owners. Obviously you will always find people who are the exception to the rule. It strikes me the Tories are totally focused on fighting the last election and substituting policies they believed cost them votes with the opposite. The Tories focus on 'Labour project fear' is ridiculous in that Tory policy to leave the EU causes a fundamental downward force on growth in the economy.
Over 60% of the country are still homeowners, win most of them and big Tory majority
Also, lets not forget, Thatcher won because she gave people the vision of work hard, buy a home, save and invest, and thus to able to make your kids lives better than yours.
Not work hard, get a home, then the state will take basically all the equity and leave you nothing to give your kids. It is why the dementia tax was so toxic.
State looks after you when you've got dementia = hooray! State takes money from you to pay for looking after you when you've got dementia = boo!
Yeah. Perhaps if it wasn't called the dementia tax the whole issue might have been less toxic and something might have actually been done about it.
Oh it will, this will destroy Labour with middle income swing voters if it gains traction given the average house price is now over £200 000
I mentioned this earlier, but many sources had the figure that average inheritance a person can expect to receive in their life was £11k, so this will still not affect most people.
Whilst av house price is above 200k, most people have more than one inheritor, many will have outstanding debts at death, be that mortgage or taking money out of their homes for renovations or pension top ups, and many older people will have to sell their homes to cover care costs.
The average inheritance is now £119 000, very close to Labour's new £125 000 gift tax threshold
It will big time. Corbyn's Santa Tax will be his dementia tax
What votes? Which demographics in which seats?
Who do you think was until today saying “Yeah I’ll vote for Corbyn. He’s the absolute boy.” will now suddenly be like “Shit. My house. Best vote Tory”?
There are millions of children and grandchildren across the country who will be affected by this. It is just pure envy and as others have said, Corbyn's Santa Death Tax will become the dementia tax of this election. We still have over 62% owner occupation in this country
The present system is sensible and equitable
I ask again: what child or grandchild who until today thought Corbyn was the absolute boy, after everything, will now decide to vote Tory because they might have to pay a tax someday in the distant future?
Look, I'm in my late 20's, inheritance is likely to come in to play soon (although highly unlikely to be anywhere near £125k), but if I get taxed to pay for a better NHS, more equal society, a Green New Deal, better education for people etc... guess what, my life gets better too. Narrow self interest is not always just getting a wad of cash.
I sincerely think a left wing country will give me a better standard of living even if it taxes me more, because all the public services those taxes go towards will save me money in the long run.
Just like the medicare for all argument; private insurance is a private tax. Sure, federal taxes increase, but the private tax goes away, and overall the taxpayer saves money and gets a better product. So if my IHT goes up, but if quality of life goes up, I'm still quids up.
It will big time. Corbyn's Santa Tax will be his dementia tax
What votes? Which demographics in which seats?
Who do you think was until today saying “Yeah I’ll vote for Corbyn. He’s the absolute boy.” will now suddenly be like “Shit. My house. Best vote Tory”?
There are millions of children and grandchildren across the country who will be affected by this. It is just pure envy and as others have said, Corbyn's Santa Death Tax will become the dementia tax of this election. We still have over 62% owner occupation in this country
The present system is sensible and equitable
I ask again: what child or grandchild who until today thought Corbyn was the absolute boy, after everything, will now decide to vote Tory because they might have to pay a tax someday in the distant future?
It doesn't always have to be direct transfers from Labour to Tory.
I understand that. Obviously there will be some movement but I’m questioning the view that this will cause some sort of avalanche of voters to the Tories. I can’t see it.
Labour don't have problems in suggesting better off people should pay more tax. Their problem is that they say nothing and offer nothing to the vast majority in the middle.
Labour speak of two Britains. In the first everyone is Daniel Blake's Nephew. Either in a low paid zero hour shafted by The Man job or sanctioned off Universal Credit whilst at your dad's funeral in the midst of Cancer treatment. In the other Britain everyone is Jacob Rees-Mogg levels of caricature. That almost everyone voting in this election is NEITHER of these is the pronblem.
For all of his many failings - and they are vast - Shagger Johnson is at least someone that most people could have a pint with. Same with Farage. Swinson, Sturgeon, Lucas - all normal. Not Corbyn. Never speaks to the majority of people in the 80% of the population. Looks ANGRY all the time and can't speak without SHOUTING. On AND ON.
It will big time. Corbyn's Santa Tax will be his dementia tax
What votes? Which demographics in which seats?
Who do you think was until today saying “Yeah I’ll vote for Corbyn. He’s the absolute boy.” will now suddenly be like “Shit. My house. Best vote Tory”?
There are millions of children and grandchildren across the country who will be affected by this. It is just pure envy and as others have said, Corbyn's Santa Death Tax will become the dementia tax of this election. We still have over 62% owner occupation in this country
The present system is sensible and equitable
I ask again: what child or grandchild who until today thought Corbyn was the absolute boy, after everything, will now decide to vote Tory because they might have to pay a tax someday in the distant future?
Of his base of 25% not so many but he has to win far more and he needs to attract conservative voters. Furthermore there are millions of labour voters who will reject their inheritance being attacked in this way
The right to give inheritance attaches to the owner of the assets and forms part of his or her property rights. There is no right to receive an inheritance and there is a strong public interest in not encouraging people to become reliant on their parents and grandparents, instead encouraging them to use their own talents. So there is no ground to object to taxation of inheritance in the hands of the recipients.
In order to respect property rights, tax on inheritance and gifts should be kept at a reasonable level (50% feels about right). But up to that level, legatees can have no complaints if they are forced to share their windfall with the state.
I wonder how they will deal with inheritances that go abroad if it is the recipient that is being taxed, and not the estate?
Yes, I think the next couple of years will be a political nightmare, and winning in December will be as good as it gets for the Tories for many years to come. Indeed, much like in 1992, I can see Boris being cursed by his own party for defeating Corbyn: far better for Labour to have inherited the horror and been destroyed by it.
Start messing with people's houses then there's trouble.
Ask T May.
Different dynamic at work. Labour voters are less likley to be home owners. Obviously you will always find people who are the exception to the rule. It strikes me the Tories are totally focused on fighting the last election and substituting policies they believed cost them votes with the opposite. The Tories focus on 'Labour project fear' is ridiculous in that Tory policy to leave the EU causes a fundamental downward force on growth in the economy.
Over 60% of the country are still homeowners, win most of them and big Tory majority
How many of the sixty percent own property above the threshold and if they have more than 2 children: it starts looking less unfavourable. The other thing you have to remember is inheritence can disappear due to care requirements, adaptation to houses (some people can get help but iirc not everyone)and the like. You also have the increase in equity release.
Average house price now £244 000, well above the threshold and at home care costs still exempt from being applied to your home
Start messing with people's houses then there's trouble.
Ask T May.
Different dynamic at work. Labour voters are less likley to be home owners. Obviously you will always find people who are the exception to the rule. It strikes me the Tories are totally focused on fighting the last election and substituting policies they believed cost them votes with the opposite. The Tories focus on 'Labour project fear' is ridiculous in that Tory policy to leave the EU causes a fundamental downward force on growth in the economy.
Over 60% of the country are still homeowners, win most of them and big Tory majority
How many of the sixty percent own property above the threshold and if they have more than 2 children: it starts looking less unfavourable. The other thing you have to remember is inheritence can disappear due to care requirements, adaptation to houses (some people can get help but iirc not everyone)and the like. You also have the increase in equity release.
I remember Labour tried this argument before Osborne announced the IHT policy. They were all over the airwaves claiming only a tiny percentage paid IHT etc.
However, a) people know that houses go up in value fairly rapidly, while politicians have no incentive to increase taxation bands accordingly (see how many people now pay 40%+, when they used to be only for the mega wealthy) and b) are hugely suspicious of claims that it won't affect you, because history shows it more than likely will as politicians always have the incentive to drag a few more people into the net.
Interesting looking back at the opinion polls in 1983, Labour were above 30 for most of the campaign and only dipped below 30 in the last week. Different world now but just shows the only way isn't always up. I still think Labour will end up on around 34/35 with Cons around 41/42.
Labour don't have problems in suggesting better off people should pay more tax. Their problem is that they say nothing and offer nothing to the vast majority in the middle.
Labour speak of two Britains. In the first everyone is Daniel Blake's Nephew. Either in a low paid zero hour shafted by The Man job or sanctioned off Universal Credit whilst at your dad's funeral in the midst of Cancer treatment. In the other Britain everyone is Jacob Rees-Mogg levels of caricature. That almost everyone voting in this election is NEITHER of these is the problem.
Another thought....this is a lifetime gift tax right. Most parents give their kids money to help with uni living costs, for a car, help with their first home (be it rental or bought). £100k will soon add up.
You could well find for a lot of people even with smaller homes, they will have used up a large chunk (if not all) of that allowance by the time they die.
Edit - What about weddings....father of the bride paying for that, that £10k at least. Asian weddings, if they are half as crazy as a few I have been to, now that's your £100k gone there.
Start messing with people's houses then there's trouble.
Ask T May.
Different dynamic at work. Labour voters are less likley to be home owners. Obviously you will always find people who are the exception to the rule. It strikes me the Tories are totally focused on fighting the last election and substituting policies they believed cost them votes with the opposite. The Tories focus on 'Labour project fear' is ridiculous in that Tory policy to leave the EU causes a fundamental downward force on growth in the economy.
Over 60% of the country are still homeowners, win most of them and big Tory majority
How many of the sixty percent own property above the threshold and if they have more than 2 children: it starts looking less unfavourable. The other thing you have to remember is inheritence can disappear due to care requirements, adaptation to houses (some people can get help but iirc not everyone)and the like. You also have the increase in equity release.
What about the strivers? How many want to better themselves for the benefit of the state?
Oh it will, this will destroy Labour with middle income swing voters if it gains traction given the average house price is now over £200 000
I mentioned this earlier, but many sources had the figure that average inheritance a person can expect to receive in their life was £11k, so this will still not affect most people.
Whilst av house price is above 200k, most people have more than one inheritor, many will have outstanding debts at death, be that mortgage or taking money out of their homes for renovations or pension top ups, and many older people will have to sell their homes to cover care costs.
The average inheritance is now £119 000, very close to Labour's new £125 000 gift tax threshold
So you’re saying that only people with above average inheritances will be hit? Sounds pretty progressive to me.
Don't forget that this new tax would effect gifts not just inheritances. Many parents also help their children during their lifetimes e.g. wedding, honeymoon, house deposit etc so someone with an inheritance of 119k would probably already be over the threshold.
Vs. 2017 manifesto, Labour need to find more money somewhere.
The inheritance tax proposal seems risky to me, but it is possible that it enables a battleline to be drawn between Labour (on the side of workers) and Tories (on the side of millionaires and unearned income).
I find this argument appalling and it isn't that far from those who objected to people buying their council houses. There is almost a suggestion that these common people shouldn't have houses of their own but should live in housing provided by the state at an appropriate level for their needs. If we gave them a bath then they would put coal in it etc etc.
It will big time. Corbyn's Santa Tax will be his dementia tax
What votes? Which demographics in which seats?
Who do you think was until today saying “Yeah I’ll vote for Corbyn. He’s the absolute boy.” will now suddenly be like “Shit. My house. Best vote Tory”?
There are millions of children and grandchildren across the country who will be affected by this. It is just pure envy and as others have said, Corbyn's Santa Death Tax will become the dementia tax of this election. We still have over 62% owner occupation in this country
The present system is sensible and equitable
I ask again: what child or grandchild who until today thought Corbyn was the absolute boy, after everything, will now decide to vote Tory because they might have to pay a tax someday in the distant future?
It doesn't always have to be direct transfers from Labour to Tory.
I understand that. Obviously there will be some movement but I’m questioning the view that this will cause some sort of avalanche of voters to the Tories. I can’t see it.
I must have missed "avalanche"
You should pay attention more when you read then.
I said I must have missed it which means I hadn't read it. You should pay more attention when you have definitely read it.
Start messing with people's houses then there's trouble.
Ask T May.
Different dynamic at work. Labour voters are less likley to be home owners. Obviously you will always find people who are the exception to the rule. It strikes me the Tories are totally focused on fighting the last election and substituting policies they believed cost them votes with the opposite. The Tories focus on 'Labour project fear' is ridiculous in that Tory policy to leave the EU causes a fundamental downward force on growth in the economy.
Over 60% of the country are still homeowners, win most of them and big Tory majority
How many of the sixty percent own property above the threshold and if they have more than 2 children: it starts looking less unfavourable. The other thing you have to remember is inheritence can disappear due to care requirements, adaptation to houses (some people can get help but iirc not everyone)and the like. You also have the increase in equity release.
Average house price now £244 000, well above the threshold and at home care costs still exempt from.brimg applied to your home
You are talking in generality about care. Someone might need more than a basic care package.
To be honest I think it immoral that people with assets get free care. Everything else is means tested before retirement age. If someone has to have care and their assets after death have to be used to pay for this I have no problem with that and I speak as someone who might inherit.
Oh it will, this will destroy Labour with middle income swing voters if it gains traction given the average house price is now over £200 000
I mentioned this earlier, but many sources had the figure that average inheritance a person can expect to receive in their life was £11k, so this will still not affect most people.
Whilst av house price is above 200k, most people have more than one inheritor, many will have outstanding debts at death, be that mortgage or taking money out of their homes for renovations or pension top ups, and many older people will have to sell their homes to cover care costs.
The average inheritance is now £119 000, very close to Labour's new £125 000 gift tax threshold
So you’re saying that only people with above average inheritances will be hit? Sounds pretty progressive to me.
Don't forget that this new tax would effect gifts not just inheritances. Many parents also help their children during their lifetimes e.g. wedding, honeymoon, house deposit etc so someone with an inheritance of 119k would probably already be over the threshold.
Exactly. This hits both grand-parents and parents as gifts from both or either of them for anything such as wedding/deposit for a house/paying off the student loan reduces their allowance when they finally do inherit.
The recipient may not mind (maybe!) as it's long in the future. But the parents and grand-parents sure will.
Give your child a helping hand? Corbyn's coming to get his slice!
Another thought....this is a lifetime gift tax right. Most parents give their kids money to help with uni living costs, for a car, help with their first home (be it rental or bought). £100k will soon add up.
You could well find for a lot of people even with smaller homes, they will have used up a large chunk (if not all) of that allowance by the time they die.
Be interesting to know what percentage of that is declared.
Start messing with people's houses then there's trouble.
Ask T May.
Different dynamic at work. Labour voters are less likley to be home owners. Obviously you will always find people who are the exception to the rule. It strikes me the Tories are totally focused on fighting the last election and substituting policies they believed cost them votes with the opposite. The Tories focus on 'Labour project fear' is ridiculous in that Tory policy to leave the EU causes a fundamental downward force on growth in the economy.
Over 60% of the country are still homeowners, win most of them and big Tory majority
Also, lets not forget, Thatcher won because she gave people the vision of work hard, buy a home, save and invest, and thus to able to make your kids lives better than yours.
Not work hard, get a home, then the state will take basically all the equity and leave you nothing to give your kids. It is why the dementia tax was so toxic.
Yes this is electoral suicide from Labour
It ought to be - it is almost the demon eyes in the 1997 poster - much maligned but as we all learned over the decade that followed not far from the truth.
I didn’t realize the Labour manifesto had been released .
A lot of Tories in here talking as if the IHT policy was confirmed .
You are obviously new to PB....back in the day, before Brexit, this is what we did all day on PB. Took policy suggestions, wonk tank reports and debated them.
The right to give inheritance attaches to the owner of the assets and forms part of his or her property rights. There is no right to receive an inheritance and there is a strong public interest in not encouraging people to become reliant on their parents and grandparents, instead encouraging them to use their own talents. So there is no ground to object to taxation of inheritance in the hands of the recipients.
In order to respect property rights, tax on inheritance and gifts should be kept at a reasonable level (50% feels about right). But up to that level, legatees can have no complaints if they are forced to share their windfall with the state.
I wonder how they will deal with inheritances that go abroad if it is the recipient that is being taxed, and not the estate?
They will probably tax payments to legatees as income in Britain.
In its report the IPPR says quite a bit about trusts, increasing transparency, and getting rid of non-dom. I couldn't find an answer to your question, but there's this: "where a settlor has placed assets into a trust but they are deemed to have no beneficial owner for tax purposes, the assets should be deemed to belong to the settlor. This would mean that tax would be levied at the point of death of the settlor or when a distribution was made." That might give an indication of another solution when a legatee tries to avoid LGT by legging it abroad while their parent's body is still warm: in that case tax the estate.
The IPPR also proposes to abolish council tax and replace it with a "far more progressive" property tax based on current values.
Comments
The current Labour vote base either does not own property or is happy to be taxed for the greater good.
Ask T May.
1) how quickly does Corbyn resign?
2) who will become new leader? Sure to be female?
Tips please for my grubby tenner.
In order to respect property rights, tax on inheritance and gifts should be kept at a reasonable level (50% feels about right). But up to that level, legatees can have no complaints if they are forced to share their windfall with the state.
Whilst av house price is above 200k, most people have more than one inheritor, many will have outstanding debts at death, be that mortgage or taking money out of their homes for renovations or pension top ups, and many older people will have to sell their homes to cover care costs.
The inheritance tax proposal seems risky to me, but it is possible that it enables a battleline to be drawn between Labour (on the side of workers) and Tories (on the side of millionaires and unearned income).
Go big or go home, the right wing branding on IHT has always been a "Death Tax" and for all the hacks here I would suggest sticking to that...
Who do you think was until today saying “Yeah I’ll vote for Corbyn. He’s the absolute boy.” will now suddenly be like “Shit. My house. Best vote Tory”?
What the electorate really wants is massive spending increases, paid for by other people. When massive tax rises will hit them .......
Can’t see Jezza voting Tory. Maybe Lib Dem?
You better not cry
You better not pout
I'm telling you why
SANTA TAX is coming to town
Corbyn's making a list,
He's checking it twice,
He's gonna find out who's naughty or nice
SANTA TAX is coming to town
So - Alastair - as someone who has reached the top 2% of personal wealth in this country entirely on my own efforts - I concur with you entirely.
Now, when it comes to unafforable housing, now that is something that really gets people heckles up.
Disputes over inheritance can be absolutely vicious.
Not work hard, get a home, then the state will take basically all the equity and leave you nothing to give your kids. It is why the dementia tax was so toxic.
The present system is sensible and equitable
If they aren't generous with the thresholds then either I've misunderstood something, Labour are crap at politics, or both.
https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1194896373386219520
https://www.yourmortgage.co.uk/news/average-inheritance-100k/
Labour would be far better concentrating on that, rather than work hard, make your life better, but we are going to then reset the system for your kids.
The Tories should really be focused on this too, especially more on getting people access to homes. Owning a home is a British religion in the same way the NHS is.
State takes money from you to pay for looking after you when you've got dementia = boo!
I sincerely think a left wing country will give me a better standard of living even if it taxes me more, because all the public services those taxes go towards will save me money in the long run.
Just like the medicare for all argument; private insurance is a private tax. Sure, federal taxes increase, but the private tax goes away, and overall the taxpayer saves money and gets a better product. So if my IHT goes up, but if quality of life goes up, I'm still quids up.
Labour speak of two Britains. In the first everyone is Daniel Blake's Nephew. Either in a low paid zero hour shafted by The Man job or sanctioned off Universal Credit whilst at your dad's funeral in the midst of Cancer treatment. In the other Britain everyone is Jacob Rees-Mogg levels of caricature. That almost everyone voting in this election is NEITHER of these is the pronblem.
For all of his many failings - and they are vast - Shagger Johnson is at least someone that most people could have a pint with. Same with Farage. Swinson, Sturgeon, Lucas - all normal. Not Corbyn. Never speaks to the majority of people in the 80% of the population. Looks ANGRY all the time and can't speak without SHOUTING. On AND ON.
It is stupid
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-house-price-index-january-2019
However, a) people know that houses go up in value fairly rapidly, while politicians have no incentive to increase taxation bands accordingly (see how many people now pay 40%+, when they used to be only for the mega wealthy) and b) are hugely suspicious of claims that it won't affect you, because history shows it more than likely will as politicians always have the incentive to drag a few more people into the net.
You could well find for a lot of people even with smaller homes, they will have used up a large chunk (if not all) of that allowance by the time they die.
Edit - What about weddings....father of the bride paying for that, that £10k at least. Asian weddings, if they are half as crazy as a few I have been to, now that's your £100k gone there.
Unfortunatley, he is about to find out that the Have Nots includes a bloody massive subset: the Hope To Have One Days......
To be honest I think it immoral that people with assets get free care. Everything else is means tested before retirement age. If someone has to have care and their assets after death have to be used to pay for this I have no problem with that and I speak as someone who might inherit.
The recipient may not mind (maybe!) as it's long in the future. But the parents and grand-parents sure will.
Give your child a helping hand? Corbyn's coming to get his slice!
A lot of Tories in here talking as if the IHT policy was confirmed .
Labour are about to announce unlimited free movement in the next few days and watch how the table will turn
In its report the IPPR says quite a bit about trusts, increasing transparency, and getting rid of non-dom. I couldn't find an answer to your question, but there's this: "where a settlor has placed assets into a trust but they are deemed to have no beneficial owner for tax purposes, the assets should be deemed to belong to the settlor. This would mean that tax would be levied at the point of death of the settlor or when a distribution was made." That might give an indication of another solution when a legatee tries to avoid LGT by legging it abroad while their parent's body is still warm: in that case tax the estate.
The IPPR also proposes to abolish council tax and replace it with a "far more progressive" property tax based on current values.