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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It’s Johnson’s bad luck that the floods have happened in Yorkshire home of many of his GE2019 target seats
Most of our media may not have worked out or care who Boris Johnson really is, but the people of Yorkshire certainly have pic.twitter.com/AZiCKizzVm
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I reckon the final result is somewhere around 35% for the Tories, 33% for Labour.
And we wouldn't want to suspect for one moment that Smithson is doing something that those despised politicians might also do... hedge his bets?
Four weeks to go. Be completely forgotten unless you live there.
It is a personal disaster for each and every owner and will take months, even years, to recover from
I have thought it will be interesting to see who buys it when the current owners get shot of it. It would not surprise me if a Russian Oligarch purchases it at a much higher value than the market price!
If Survation - who shows the lowest lead - is indicating a close race, 6 points at the moment in it, with MoE that could be 4 points - then that should be a guage of the overall trend.
I reckon if within two weeks if the gap is below 8 points, it's squeeky bum time and the Lib Dem vote will almost entirely go to Labour as a tactical vote.
"Most of our media may not have worked out or care who Boris Johnson really is, but the people of Yorkshire certainly have"
.... The sleaziest party leader in my lifetime by a country mile.
The shots of Johnson getting an earful in Yorkshire was big on the BBC 10 o'clock news.
The man most responsible for Corbyn as possible next PM.
What's more I don't think that ComRes have the technical capacity to filter out the BXP voting intention option in 317 Con-held seats. If so, unlike the latest YouGov, this poll won't have captured the full impact of the BXP standing down in Con-held seats.
We haven't even seen the Labour manifesto yet - and Labour has increased already.
I think Labour will be at 35% soon enough.
It is not just about dams and dykes, but also about reforestation, soakaways and building developments away from flood plains.
People assume the BXP goes to the Tories - have these people been to the North?
Swinson doesn't need Labour votes, she needs tactical votes.
The Lib Dems I think will drop below 10% as it becomes clearer Labour is the tactical choice.
Anyone looked at the "don't knows" recently? They mostly went to Labour last time, is there 10% of the vote in there?
https://twitter.com/326Pols/status/1194747998884028421
I remember in 2017 a lot of PBers lazily chalked up former UKIPers to the Tories, and got their fingers burnt.
https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2019-50413638
No mention of revoke. Multiple references to giving people the final say on Brexit.
Has the policy changed ?
All politicians need to come together to map a path to climate change that is doable and does not catapult the poor into abject poverty
The LDs can say no messing about with a Labour renegotiation, just Remain up against the May deal (since it is less popular), as the price for cooperation.
For the woman, it's a close call between Harriet Harman (who pushed Andy Burnham into a choice between resigning or backing her welfare cuts agenda) and Margaret Beckett ("Yes I'll give Jeremy the final nomination needed to get him onto the ballot"). But probably the latter.
But why did no politician do any of this in 2005 or 2006 ... or 2009 or 2010 or 2011 or ... 2019. The problems of flooding in England were well known in 2005 independent of whether there is an increased risk due to climate change.
As we finally saw with the GE being called though, eventually you just run out of road - the cost to stop Brexit might be higher than they'd like, but if they mean what they say they might have no choice.
You can see some of the innards of the projections at: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nUxnVJIFRo9A806IHtkTcd_Cxn1hO4P98nHCnBgeMFI/edit#gid=586083410
It is really difficult to see where Labour is going to get the votes to increase to 35%. And this time Remainers know he is the biggest Brexiteer of them all.
Like a WW1 general you're fighting the last war...
https://twitter.com/electionmapsuk/status/1194716512411631617?s=21
The clips played on the radio today had people tell Boris it was about time he turned up - as if he could personally assist - then when asked what was required the locals said actually nothing now, but help was too late in coming (which it always is in these situations).
Secondly we have very high standards for drainage in this country. The following guide explains the design principles of Sustainable urban drainage systems (SuDS) near to me
https://www.bristol.gov.uk/documents/20182/34524/West+of+England+sustainable+drainage+developer+guide+section+1/864fe0d2-45bf-4240-95e2-a9d1962a0df9
Unfortunately world class standards like these are not applicable retrospectively to existing settlements. But if you think the government should be building expensive concrete structures in areas susceptible to flooding which need on-going maintenance and displace flooding downstream so it looks like they are doing something.
It is very serious and millions are going to have to be found urgently to reconstruct the whole of the sea defences and railway embankment in that area
And, to follow the lead of the United States of America and Trump, another disgraceful intervention in a UK election this time by the President of the aspiring United States of Europe. Maybe he'll clarify and tell us whether we should vote Lab or Lib Dem. Or open up an official EU tactical voting site.
5K majority.
Nevertheless, someone might get hamstrung by a perceived poor response and shots of angry locals, even if it was ok in the grand scheme of responses, so it still matters in that sense.
John Major was surprisingly good at meeting the public, and surprisingly won an election for it. With Mr Johnson I'm not so sure.
Inheritance taxes are possibly the most effective form of wealth redistribution around. It is why the wealthy do not like them but the poor do.
https://twitter.com/peterdonaghy/status/1194751645227331587
In a speech, he also said Brexit would likely mark the "real end of the British Empire".
Aren't we supposed to regard that as a good thing in the modern age? Therefore we should Brexit to ensure it?
Labour manifesto will be out before the first TV debate I would think.
I suspect Corbyn and Labour's numbers will improve post that. Is there still a majority for "don't know" when choosing party leaders?
Should the UK revoke Article 50 and stay in the EU?
[ ] Yes
[ ] Definitely
[ ] Damn Right
[ ] No, no, not there, it tickles. Ooohhhh hit me with your revoke pledge again.
On the other side of the coin Harold Wilson famously caught an egg that was thrown at him! Bet Ted Heath wished he could have avoided the person who stubbed a cigarette out on his neck!
If Labour can gain about 7 points on average, it's squeeky bum time.
They can take about 2 points from the Greens, who always get squeezed. 2 points from the Lib Dems (tactical) and some don't knows come back, bit of a youth surge and you can see quite easily how we end up in a Hung Parliament.
Johnson's strategy is to win the North, I don't think that will happen.
Apparently he will win Wales too - I remember when May was due to clean up in Wales, didn't Labour gain seats?
These people aren't assuming anything. They are going on hard polling evidence.
e.g.
http://www.deltapoll.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Deltapoll-MoS191109.pdf
Compare Page 1 with Page 5.
LOL right
It's possible I suppose, but I think the accumulation of the experience of the previous election, Labour's polling numbers creeping up, a less idiotic Tory manifesto and the debates will mean there'll be more scrutiny of Labour's offer this time around - and, presumably, the idea that at least some of it might be implemented (even if Labour can only form a minority Government with the backing of Remain parties) should be taken more seriously by the media.
[ ] None of the above (T&C apply)*
* (in tiny print) Revoke.
There could be deaths in A&E queues, poor response to more bad weather, a collapse in the mirage that a large majority of the country are really keen on his Brexit deal; a collapse in the mirage that he's an affable, sleeves-rolled-up, get-it-done sort of chap rather than a complete chancer.
Corbyn's bad points are well-documented and burned in to the polling (giving him an absolute ceiling of high 30s), but he has a pretty solid 20-25 who'd still vote for him if he nationalised babies. He'll also get equal airtime for whatever moons on sticks and owls for all that he wants to offer, while having easy hits like "what? No COBRA meeting on floods?". He'll never win over 40 per cent, probably never a majority, maybe not even most seats. But he doesn't need to to utterly screw Boris's plans. Boris, on the other hand, needs a majority - preferably of sufficient scale to push through any and every controversial Brexit clause without a blink. There is little excuse left if the GB public elect another "remainer parliament".
Johnson may remain lucky. But I still think a 2017-style narrowing combined with a handful of freak seat results stop a Con majority being as odds-on as the markets and polls currently have it.