On topic: As a matter of mathematical philosophy, one has to ask exactly what is meant by 'probability' when it comes a one-off event. If Professor A says the probability of Con Maj is (say) 60%, and Dr B says it's 20%, and it turns out that the result is Con Maj (or, for that matter, that it isn't), you still wouldn't know whether Professor A or Dr B was correct; a probability is only a well-defined concept for something you can repeat often enough, under identical conditions, to be able to check the number of times the eventuality occurs against the probability.
On the other hand, it clearly means something, in that if Mr C said the chance of a LibDem majority was 60%, we'd unanimously agree that Mr C was off with the fairies, and, if we couldn't assess probabilities at all in political betting, we couldn't make money from it.
I'll leave you with that conundrum, as it's my 60th birthday (!), and I'm planning to cope with this difficult concept by drinking some fine claret.
Happy birthday, Richard. I agree with what you say, and a fundamental problem about all the "golden rules" that we like to discuss ("No government has ever..." "No opposition has ever..." is that the sample of previous elections under modern conditions is so pathetically small, and the sample of elections with two parties in coalition in modern times is zero. We are better off trying to assess things in the current situation than scrabbling to find parallels in the past. The Fisher model attempts to extrapolate from this tiny sample, IMO unwisely.
It seems to me that the LD->Lab swing is firm - it's not that they hate the LibDems, just that this segment of voters think they were mistaken to work with the Conservatives and will not support them until they stop doing so. I don't think either the Tory or Labour votes are firm, though they're gradually hardening up a bit, and the UKIP vote seems impervious both to adverse stories and the absence of coverage. In these circs, an outright Tory win looks very unlikely, and certainly not 48%.
The Global worthies club have set a deadline of tonight for the Iranians to buy in saying there's no more on their side to give or at least 3 of that club the have. Bearing in mind the idea of the talks is non-proliferation and Iranians wanted both to hold the complete tool-set for both uranium and plutonium enrichment capacity as well a statement acknowledging Iran's 'right to enrich' uranium. The latter is a difficult step as it does set a precedent beyond anything previously agreed in the non-proliferation era.
Not sure if I'll do the pre-race piece this evening or tomorrow morning.
Due to rampant cowardice I'm actually ahead (I hedged the Rosberg bet at 4.3 and backed him each way (2nd = an each way win, I think) with Betfair at 10.
The new Kingswood shortlist is Rowena Hayward, Jo McCarron (from Bath, already shortlisted in Stroud, Bristol West and NE Somerset) and Lisa Homan (Hammersmith Cllr). Nominations indicated it should be close between the first 2 listed.
@RichardNabavi You seem comfortable with the "frequentist" interpretation of probability because it is objective and verifiable. But there is also a much wider (because frequentist notions are subsumed within it) concept of "subjective probability", which most people use informally and implicitly, including your good self when quoting or revising odds on political events or horses etc.. There is a large academic literature on subjective probability, which represents strength of belief in some proposition, the gist of which is to examine coherent analysis of such beliefs. For example, how to revise such beliefs in the light of new knowledge. Key names in this area include Laplace, de Finetti, Bayes, and Jeffries. Their ideas have contributed hugely to the development of decision theory, whereas frequentist interpretations are dominant in the statistical interpretation of experimental evidence.
"I'd expect the LDs to poll 6-10% in GE 2015, and UKIP to poll anything from 15-28% (if UKIP win 'EU 14- they'll poll very well indeed in GE2015). Too few on here seem to appreciate just how deep the loathing is for the 'political class' as a whole the SNP proved that in 2011"
You are right on there. Loathing of the Lab/lib/Con Party has reached major proportions. I expect that by the GE in 2015, it will have reached Epic proportions and finally start to move the log-jam of our outmoded political system.
On a lighter note: Happy Birthday to RichardNabavi on your 60th. From one almost 20 years your senior, salute.
Presumably the model starts with a baseline which assumes 'swingback'. Therefore, even if polls had stayed constant the chance of a labour majority would be greater. A slight shift to Labour in the polls further increases the probability.
If its a decent model it should be reasonably self correcting and become more accurate as more data is inputted, accounting for all the various unknowns described below. It shouldn't be Dr Fisher predicts by pulling numbers out of his arse (a la Hodges), but Dr Fisher's model predicts, and changes on the basis of evidence. The numbers will take some time to settle down.
Nate Silver isn't a genius, he just had a good model and alot of data over a long time period. Having said that, having looked at the methodology paper i'm not sure how sophisticated a statistician Dr Fisher actually is!
As GE2015 approaches the polls will begin to look like the final results. Since Fisher's model follows the polls, his prediction also will begin to get close to the final result.
He would then claim what a great genius he was and a lot of idiots will agree with him. His claim would include that his model was a "self-correcting one".
Anyone , taking an average of the weekly polls, would do no worse !
Dr Fisher doesn't actually use any analysis to make a prediction, he asks Dan Hodges, who asks one of his many nameless sources in the Tory Party who give him the figures.
It's commonly know in the polling arena as a Dan Hodges prediction....total crap.
David Coburn UKIP @DavidCoburnUKip All Eurozone debt locked up in ECB via complex financial instruments - this will mean each EU country will have to pay others debts.
"I'd expect the LDs to poll 6-10% in GE 2015, and UKIP to poll anything from 15-28% (if UKIP win 'EU 14- they'll poll very well indeed in GE2015). Too few on here seem to appreciate just how deep the loathing is for the 'political class' as a whole the SNP proved that in 2011"
You are right on there. Loathing of the Lab/lib/Con Party has reached major proportions. I expect that by the GE in 2015, it will have reached Epic proportions and finally start to move the log-jam of our outmoded political system.
On a lighter note: Happy Birthday to RichardNabavi on your 60th. From one almost 20 years your senior, salute.
UKIP 15-28% ?!
I'll absolubtely coin it if that happens but I don't think its likely.
MikeK Have you had your maximum allowance on P Power Cambourne and Redruth (40-1) and UKIP's best errm UNS chance of a seat ?
David Coburn UKIP @DavidCoburnUKip All Eurozone debt locked up in ECB via complex financial instruments - this will mean each EU country will have to pay others debts.
The probability of all those 2010 Lib Dems sticking with Labour all the way through to the general election is less than 100%
The probability of anything at all, e.g. that any of us exist and are not all figments of your imagination, is less than 100%. But in betting terms I'm more confident of this group than I am of any other segment of the voter population. Many people are scratching their heads and less than enthusiastic about any of us. The LD->Lab switchers are, by and large, motivated and focused and decided over two years ago what they want to do.
Not been on for a bit. Do any of the PB Hodges know if the Tory Party have published Dans ghost poll. This would obviously be proof of Dan being right....or maybe, just maybe, Dan was talking the usual Dan Hodges talk.
The probability of all those 2010 Lib Dems sticking with Labour all the way through to the general election is less than 100%
The probability of anything at all, e.g. that any of us exist and are not all figments of your imagination, is less than 100%. But in betting terms I'm more confident of this group than I am of any other segment of the voter population. Many people are scratching their heads and less than enthusiastic about any of us. The LD->Lab switchers are, by and large, motivated and focused and decided over two years ago what they want to do.
They may be motivated enough to consistently tell pollsters that they will switch to Labour but the majority of them have not yet voted in that way . Indeed in Eastleigh only 13% did so whereas 21% of 2010 Labour voters switched to the Lib Dems .
The probability of all those 2010 Lib Dems sticking with Labour all the way through to the general election is less than 100%
The probability of anything at all, e.g. that any of us exist and are not all figments of your imagination, is less than 100%. But in betting terms I'm more confident of this group than I am of any other segment of the voter population. Many people are scratching their heads and less than enthusiastic about any of us. The LD->Lab switchers are, by and large, motivated and focused and decided over two years ago what they want to do.
They may be motivated enough to consistently tell pollsters that they will switch to Labour but the majority of them have not yet voted in that way . Indeed in Eastleigh only 13% did so whereas 21% of 2010 Labour voters switched to the Lib Dems .
To my mind alot of Lab/Lib Dem potential switchers are Anti-Con voters whereas UKIP are anti Lib/Lab/Con voters. That should help Labour and the Lib Dems but doesn't help the Conservatives.
The man who wrecked the country spouts bull shit, nobody cares what the hasbeen spouts , guaranteed to be self seeking crap.
You can't tell me you don't enjoy watching scottish tory surgers switch hilariously from shrieking about 'Falkirk!' to 'Listen to Brown on on economic matters!' I certainly do.
Keep young and beautiful, it's your duty to be beautiful, keep young and beautiful for tim's cocktails to be loved.
Happy Birthday, Reverend Doctor.
The real golden rule of PB Tories - Moan about and complain about how many posts by Tim but always, always, keep posting about him, even when he is not on the site.
The man who wrecked the country spouts bull shit, nobody cares what the hasbeen spouts , guaranteed to be self seeking crap.
You can't tell me you don't enjoy watching scottish tory surgers switch hilariously from shrieking about 'Falkirk!' to 'Listen to Brown on on economic matters!' I certainly do.
LOL
To use the favoured judgement of PB Tories, to find that the worst ever UK pm and worst ever chancellor is your enemy's enemy (and therefore your friend) must be ...erm...unsettling.
Keep young and beautiful, it's your duty to be beautiful, keep young and beautiful for tim's cocktails to be loved.
Happy Birthday, Reverend Doctor.
The real golden rule of PB Tories - Moan about and complain about how many posts by Tim but always, always, keep posting about him, even when he is not on the site.
tim and I have several bets outstanding and some already settled. As do the other pbTories. And it might have escaped your bird-brain that this is intended to be a betting site.
Now run along home to mummy - you might get an extra helping of angel delight if you're good.
Keep young and beautiful, it's your duty to be beautiful, keep young and beautiful for tim's cocktails to be loved.
Happy Birthday, Reverend Doctor.
The real golden rule of PB Tories - Moan about and complain about how many posts by Tim but always, always, keep posting about him, even when he is not on the site.
tim and I have several bets outstanding and some already settled. As do the other pbTories. And it might have escaped your bird-brain that this is intended to be a betting site.
Now run along home to mummy - you might get an extra helping of angel delight if you're good.
On topic: As a matter of mathematical philosophy, one has to ask exactly what is meant by 'probability' when it comes a one-off event. If Professor A says the probability of Con Maj is (say) 60%, and Dr B says it's 20%, and it turns out that the result is Con Maj (or, for that matter, that it isn't), you still wouldn't know whether Professor A or Dr B was correct; a probability is only a well-defined concept for something you can repeat often enough, under identical conditions, to be able to check the number of times the eventuality occurs against the probability.
On the other hand, it clearly means something, in that if Mr C said the chance of a LibDem majority was 60%, we'd unanimously agree that Mr C was off with the fairies, and, if we couldn't assess probabilities at all in political betting, we couldn't make money from it.
I'll leave you with that conundrum, as it's my 60th birthday (!), and I'm planning to cope with this difficult concept by drinking some fine claret.
Dominic Grieve, one of the few competent and intelligent ministers is apologising for his comments. When it happens to decent men like him I think it's safe to assume that the very act of becoming a Tory is the equivalent of jumping into a slurry pit.
No wonder they went and got Lynton Crosby
I've met him a couple of times and on one occasion had a long chat with him. As well as seeming a decent bloke he is also a consummate politician, I was amazed when I read those comments
Keep young and beautiful, it's your duty to be beautiful, keep young and beautiful for tim's cocktails to be loved.
Happy Birthday, Reverend Doctor.
The real golden rule of PB Tories - Moan about and complain about how many posts by Tim but always, always, keep posting about him, even when he is not on the site.
That's because he is well-informed, intelligent and funny, and the other leftie posters here tend not to be.
What he loves, though, is people who post factually inaccurate polling information here. To ingratiate yourself with him why not change your name again and give us the lowdown on next Thursday's yougov?
That Gordon Brown comment has got to be worth a couple of points to the Yes camp. Mind you they still vote for him up there in their thousands so maybe not.
Keep young and beautiful, it's your duty to be beautiful, keep young and beautiful for tim's cocktails to be loved.
Happy Birthday, Reverend Doctor.
The real golden rule of PB Tories - Moan about and complain about how many posts by Tim but always, always, keep posting about him, even when he is not on the site.
The only true law on PB is " My gang of baby eating champagne socialists is better than yours".
IoS front page is a keeper. With the revelations of Power Trip, A Decade of Policy. Plots and Spin by Damian McBride still fresh in our minds. Ed Miliband, who also worked for Gordon Brown and was Minister in the last Labour Government now accuses Cameron of demeaning his office with 'fear and smear' tactics. And strategist Lynton Crosby is accused of pushing the Conservative party towards 'the politics of division and character assassination'!
After the Blair/Brown years, Ed Miliband really needs a better defence when it comes to handling Labour scandals in the media.
Twitter Nick Sutton @suttonnick 1m Independent on Sunday front page - "Miliband: Tories are 'in the gutter'" #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/PpaHuBGyzt
Twitter Harry Cole @MrHarryCole 2m This is what we meant about the tactic of painting all criticism as 'a smear'. Ed claims Labour are above scrutiny for Mid Staffs in Indy.
Oh Please, what utter guff from Mr Miliband - dirtiest campaign in 20 years... I haven't seen any anti semitic or demon eye posters out yet. Ed seems to be complaining that the conservatives will put up a fight. He is a calculating and ruthless leader but comes across as a bit of a moaning minny at times.
Oh Please, what utter guff from Mr Miliband - dirtiest campaign in 20 years... I haven't seen any anti semitic or demon eye posters out yet. Ed seems to be complaining that the conservatives will put up a fight. He is a calculating and ruthless leader but comes across as a bit of a moaning minny at times.
Why do we still think Ed is crap? Ed is most definitely not crap! He is merely misunderstood, and I put it to you that is the chief reason why he is so maligned and ridiculed by the evil right-wing media.
I am certain you will agree with me that Ed is magnificently charismatic and eloquent. He is an inspiring and refreshing standard bearer for the social democratic tradition in our great nation. Yes, indeed: One Nation. Nay, his performance at Conference this year must surely have been amongst the greatest (if not the greatest) ever given by a leader of the Labour Party, or indeed of any party leader! Such magnificence, such poise, such alacrity. Wow! And his wonderful repertoire of jokes would put even Harry Hill to shame!
He is articulate, passionate, an accomplished orator, and I think a real progressive alternative to the smarmy posh boy Cameron.
Oh Please, what utter guff from Mr Miliband - dirtiest campaign in 20 years... I haven't seen any anti semitic or demon eye posters out yet. Ed seems to be complaining that the conservatives will put up a fight. He is a calculating and ruthless leader but comes across as a bit of a moaning minny at times.
Why do we still think Ed is crap? Ed is most definitely not crap! He is merely misunderstood, and I put it to you that is the chief reason why he is so maligned and ridiculed by the evil right-wing media.
I am certain you will agree with me that Ed is magnificently charismatic and eloquent. He is an inspiring and refreshing standard bearer for the social democratic tradition in our great nation. Yes, indeed: One Nation. Nay, his performance at Conference this year must surely have been amongst the greatest (if not the greatest) ever given by a leader of the Labour Party, or indeed of any party leader! Such magnificence, such poise, such alacrity. Wow! And his wonderful repertoire of jokes would put even Harry Hill to shame!
He is articulate, passionate, an accomplished orator, and I think a real progressive alternative to the smarmy posh boy Cameron.
Thanks for the link to the full article Mike. As Harry Cole has just pointed out on Twitter, 'This is what we meant about the tactic of painting all criticism as 'a smear'.'
Ed Miliband just made himself a hostage to fortune for the next 18 months until the GE in that smear laden diatribe that is so reminiscent of the New Labour play-book. He was himself right at the heart of the Blair/Brown/Campbell/Mandelson/Balls/Whelan/McBride years of New Labour. But what this article does give us, is an insight into the sheer level of desperation felt by Miliband and his spinners as he attempts to try to blow the recent scandals plaguing him and his party off the front pages.
Unfortunately for Ed Miliband, it does beg the question of who he was standing up for when he took that Labour Inquiry into Falkirk and then tried to bury it? We now know that Ed Miliband isn't planning to stand up for the patients and their relatives at Mid Staffs, the workers at Grangemouth, or the INEOS bosses who were subjected to that 'leverage' campaign by Unite. He also doesn't seem to be interested in anyone digging too deep into what went wrong at the Co-op Bank either.
Oh Please, what utter guff from Mr Miliband - dirtiest campaign in 20 years... I haven't seen any anti semitic or demon eye posters out yet. Ed seems to be complaining that the conservatives will put up a fight. He is a calculating and ruthless leader but comes across as a bit of a moaning minny at times.
Why do we still think Ed is crap? Ed is most definitely not crap! He is merely misunderstood, and I put it to you that is the chief reason why he is so maligned and ridiculed by the evil right-wing media.
I am certain you will agree with me that Ed is magnificently charismatic and eloquent. He is an inspiring and refreshing standard bearer for the social democratic tradition in our great nation. Yes, indeed: One Nation. Nay, his performance at Conference this year must surely have been amongst the greatest (if not the greatest) ever given by a leader of the Labour Party, or indeed of any party leader! Such magnificence, such poise, such alacrity. Wow! And his wonderful repertoire of jokes would put even Harry Hill to shame!
He is articulate, passionate, an accomplished orator, and I think a real progressive alternative to the smarmy posh boy Cameron.
Do you sometimes wonder why you're still a virgin?
The Labour party is facing a major financial crisis after the scandal stricken Co-operative Group told its MPs that they will slash their funding as part of a review of their historic partnership.
At least a third of the £850,000 annual donation given to Ed Miliband's MPs is to be cut, with one senior Labour figure admitting that he believed all funding from the mutual could soon be stopped.
Twitter Harry Cole @MrHarryCole 1h Ed article is breathtaking in its arrogance. Both sad and hilarious only the Sindy took it. Not many will read it, but lots should and laugh
Harry Cole @MrHarryCole 1h New Labour line: NHS criticism: Smear. City regulation criticism: Smear. Saying leader is a bit odd: Smear. We're funded by co-op: Smear.
Harry Cole @MrHarryCole 1h Let me guess, pointing out Labour's media strategy is a big iffy? That's a smear too right?
Oh Please, what utter guff from Mr Miliband - dirtiest campaign in 20 years... I haven't seen any anti semitic or demon eye posters out yet. Ed seems to be complaining that the conservatives will put up a fight. He is a calculating and ruthless leader but comes across as a bit of a moaning minny at times.
Why do we still think Ed is crap? Ed is most definitely not crap! He is merely misunderstood, and I put it to you that is the chief reason why he is so maligned and ridiculed by the evil right-wing media.
I am certain you will agree with me that Ed is magnificently charismatic and eloquent. He is an inspiring and refreshing standard bearer for the social democratic tradition in our great nation. Yes, indeed: One Nation. Nay, his performance at Conference this year must surely have been amongst the greatest (if not the greatest) ever given by a leader of the Labour Party, or indeed of any party leader! Such magnificence, such poise, such alacrity. Wow! And his wonderful repertoire of jokes would put even Harry Hill to shame!
He is articulate, passionate, an accomplished orator, and I think a real progressive alternative to the smarmy posh boy Cameron.
Do you sometimes wonder why you're still a virgin?
The Labour party is facing a major financial crisis after the scandal stricken Co-operative Group told its MPs that they will slash their funding as part of a review of their historic partnership.
At least a third of the £850,000 annual donation given to Ed Miliband's MPs is to be cut, with one senior Labour figure admitting that he believed all funding from the mutual could soon be stopped.
[Goldman Sachs] put their Farringdon HQ on hold and blamed it on the EU.
The real story is to do with the Diocese of London and taxi ranks. Goldman's thought they could screw the Church. They couldn't.
Any more on this story? Just curious.
Forgot the details, but a colleague at the Diocese was negotiating with them - they wanted to buy the freehold of some Church land to build a taxi rank. Church offered them a long lease hold (they don't sell free holds because "our business is eternity"). GS threatened to walk away from the whole project unless the Church did what they wanted...
(Not surpised that Peter Sutherland, GS International Chairman and ex-EU commissioner found a use for the story though)
Oh Please, what utter guff from Mr Miliband - dirtiest campaign in 20 years... I haven't seen any anti semitic or demon eye posters out yet. Ed seems to be complaining that the conservatives will put up a fight. He is a calculating and ruthless leader but comes across as a bit of a moaning minny at times.
Why do we still think Ed is crap? Ed is most definitely not crap! He is merely misunderstood, and I put it to you that is the chief reason why he is so maligned and ridiculed by the evil right-wing media.
I am certain you will agree with me that Ed is magnificently charismatic and eloquent. He is an inspiring and refreshing standard bearer for the social democratic tradition in our great nation. Yes, indeed: One Nation. Nay, his performance at Conference this year must surely have been amongst the greatest (if not the greatest) ever given by a leader of the Labour Party, or indeed of any party leader! Such magnificence, such poise, such alacrity. Wow! And his wonderful repertoire of jokes would put even Harry Hill to shame!
He is articulate, passionate, an accomplished orator, and I think a real progressive alternative to the smarmy posh boy Cameron.
Do you sometimes wonder why you're still a virgin?
I'm actually a Scorpio (if the astrologers are to be believed!).
Oh Please, what utter guff from Mr Miliband - dirtiest campaign in 20 years... I haven't seen any anti semitic or demon eye posters out yet. Ed seems to be complaining that the conservatives will put up a fight. He is a calculating and ruthless leader but comes across as a bit of a moaning minny at times.
Why do we still think Ed is crap? Ed is most definitely not crap! He is merely misunderstood, and I put it to you that is the chief reason why he is so maligned and ridiculed by the evil right-wing media.
I am certain you will agree with me that Ed is magnificently charismatic and eloquent. He is an inspiring and refreshing standard bearer for the social democratic tradition in our great nation. Yes, indeed: One Nation. Nay, his performance at Conference this year must surely have been amongst the greatest (if not the greatest) ever given by a leader of the Labour Party, or indeed of any party leader! Such magnificence, such poise, such alacrity. Wow! And his wonderful repertoire of jokes would put even Harry Hill to shame!
He is articulate, passionate, an accomplished orator, and I think a real progressive alternative to the smarmy posh boy Cameron.
Do you sometimes wonder why you're still a virgin?
"I'd expect the LDs to poll 6-10% in GE 2015, and UKIP to poll anything from 15-28% (if UKIP win 'EU 14- they'll poll very well indeed in GE2015). Too few on here seem to appreciate just how deep the loathing is for the 'political class' as a whole the SNP proved that in 2011"
You are right on there. Loathing of the Lab/lib/Con Party has reached major proportions. I expect that by the GE in 2015, it will have reached Epic proportions and finally start to move the log-jam of our outmoded political system. .
Possible, or though I have my doubts about that. I mean, near everyone professes contempt for the political classes, but they keep electing the same types for the same parties. There is the possibility that the political classes will take their neutered, focus grouped bland robot personas too far and finally enough people will vote for something different, but up until now it seems that though people claim to hate that sort of politician, it has worked - otherwise the parties would not have gone down those routes in the first place.
People still yearn for the more interesting personalities of politics, but those few who have distinctive personalities and opinions are usually the ones regarded as needing to tone that down to have a real shot at party leaderships. Feed people bland mush for long enough and they come to like it, or at least accept it without passion.
Even without liking UKIP, and being certain they would develop the same types of political behaviour the more established parties have, I wish them great success as if they have it, it will certainly shake things up among the uniform elite of the others.
Do you sometimes wonder why you're still a virgin?
Nowt wrong with being a virgin. Sometimes wish I could squeeze the toothpaste back in the tube.
That's a keeper!
Anyone suffering with me watching the cricket? All we need is for Cook and Pietersen to bat through the day and we'll have a chance on Monday. Ahem.
If only I could. I don't particularly mind the rout though. One benefit of being a Cricket fan growing up in the 1990s is I never mentally prepared for England to be good, so even though on paper they are still the better side and should win the series as they have the last three against the Aussies, a humiliating defeat does not make me overreact or even get hugely upset. I'd be disappointed as they should be winning, or at the least not play as abjectly as they have the past two days, but I can handle it.
We still have the players capable of repeating a similar tale as the 517 - 1 from the last Aussie Ashes, but you certainly wouldn't bet on it in recent form of the sides and the with the Aussies with their tails up.
I like Tatchell, the man had an amicable discussion with Welby about a topic they were never going to agree on in a million years and he also stood up to Mugabe's bunch of disgusting thugs when they came to this country. The man raises a good point about creeping islamism into British society. And unlike being gay, it can and does and will affect people adversely if Islamist practices like this creep into British life and culture.
"I'd expect the LDs to poll 6-10% in GE 2015, and UKIP to poll anything from 15-28% (if UKIP win 'EU 14- they'll poll very well indeed in GE2015). Too few on here seem to appreciate just how deep the loathing is for the 'political class' as a whole the SNP proved that in 2011"
You are right on there. Loathing of the Lab/lib/Con Party has reached major proportions. I expect that by the GE in 2015, it will have reached Epic proportions and finally start to move the log-jam of our outmoded political system. .
Possible, or though I have my doubts about that. I mean, near everyone professes contempt for the political classes, but they keep electing the same types for the same parties. There is the possibility that the political classes will take their neutered, focus grouped bland robot personas too far and finally enough people will vote for something different, but up until now it seems that though people claim to hate that sort of politician, it has worked - otherwise the parties would not have gone down those routes in the first place.
People still yearn for the more interesting personalities of politics, but those few who have distinctive personalities and opinions are usually the ones regarded as needing to tone that down to have a real shot at party leaderships. Feed people bland mush for long enough and they come to like it, or at least accept it without passion.
Even without liking UKIP, and being certain they would develop the same types of political behaviour the more established parties have, I wish them great success as if they have it, it will certainly shake things up among the uniform elite of the others.
So Miliband thinks he has been smeared, because people have pointed out that maybe there is a bit of a scandal going on with some bloke from the Co-Op and the lovely Unite unions having very close connections to the Labour Party and some senior members of the shadow cabinet ...imagine if he took the kind of incoming that Cameron and Clegg had fired at them, especially during the GE campaign!!!
Clegg had all sorts of c##p written about him by a small section of the media, and he took it very well and rose above it.
I hope Ed isn't going to try any "smearing" of Cameron and Clegg...be the bigger man...so no pointing out any dodgy donors or any similar scandals that might be problematic for the Tories / Lib Dem from now on eh Ed.
"I'd expect the LDs to poll 6-10% in GE 2015, and UKIP to poll anything from 15-28% (if UKIP win 'EU 14- they'll poll very well indeed in GE2015). Too few on here seem to appreciate just how deep the loathing is for the 'political class' as a whole t Epic proportions and finally start to move the log-jam of our outmoded political system. .
Possible, or though I have my doubts about that. I mean, near everyone professes contempt for the political classes, but they keep electing the same types for the same parties. There is the possibility that the political classes will take their neutered, focus grouped bland robot personas too far and finally enough people will vote for something different, but up until now it seems that though people claim to hate that sort of politician, it has worked - otherwise the parties would not have gone down those routes in the first place.
People still yearn for the more interesting personalities of politics, but those few who have distinctive personalities and opinions are usually the ones regarded as needing to tone that down to have a real shot at party leaderships. Feed people bland mush for long enough and they come to like it, or at least accept it without passion.
Even without liking UKIP, and being certain they would develop the same types of political behaviour the more established parties have, I wish them great success as if they have it, it will certainly shake things up among the uniform elite of the others.
That's why Boris and Farage are popular
Quite so. They offer something interesting and notable to the calculated blandness of most of their colleagues. Are we at the level of anger at that blandess and sameyness to do something about it though? I don't think so, I just think on certain issues UKIP for one have finally succeeded or been fortunate enough to have the public on their side and forcing the main parties to try and mimic them enough to stop political bleedage.
If Canada has a similar issue with bland political classes, maybe that's why Rob Ford was pretty popular, or perhaps he genuinely is a decent mayor were it possible to overlook his personal criminal indiscretions. Anyone know?
I like Tatchell, the man had an amicable discussion with Welby about a topic they were never going to agree on in a million years and he also stood up to Mugabe's bunch of disgusting thugs when they came to this country. The man raises a good point about creeping islamism into British society. And unlike being gay, it can and does and will affect people adversely if Islamist practices like this creep into British life and culture.
Just signed and shared this. I agree with you about Tatchell. I don't always agree with his politics but can't fault his bravery and his commitment to equality. Like you I also like the fact he is willing to talk rather than just shout.
@kle4 I feel sorry for all those WI fans with memories of Holding, Roberts. Marshall, Croft, Bishop, Richards, Lloyd, Greenidge et al -
Rough for them certainly. From recent stats though I recall reading that Chanderpaul has been the batsmen with the highest consistent average in the world over the last 6 years or so, so close to it at any rate. A master.
Their own fault though. It's sad they declined so much, but people just don't like the cricket as much over there - no matter the money messes, all the people inspired by the great days of the team should have led to a few more great players popping up.
Comments
Happy 60th birthday as well. What claret are you supping?
It seems to me that the LD->Lab swing is firm - it's not that they hate the LibDems, just that this segment of voters think they were mistaken to work with the Conservatives and will not support them until they stop doing so. I don't think either the Tory or Labour votes are firm, though they're gradually hardening up a bit, and the UKIP vote seems impervious both to adverse stories and the absence of coverage. In these circs, an outright Tory win looks very unlikely, and certainly not 48%.
The Global worthies club have set a deadline of tonight for the Iranians to buy in saying there's no more on their side to give or at least 3 of that club the have. Bearing in mind the idea of the talks is non-proliferation and Iranians wanted both to hold the complete tool-set for both uranium and plutonium enrichment capacity as well a statement acknowledging Iran's 'right to enrich' uranium. The latter is a difficult step as it does set a precedent beyond anything previously agreed in the non-proliferation era.
The tip didn't come off, although the earlier mention of a 10 each way bet on Rosberg should be green.
Due to rampant cowardice I'm actually ahead (I hedged the Rosberg bet at 4.3 and backed him each way (2nd = an each way win, I think) with Betfair at 10.
@dr_spyn
The new Kingswood shortlist is Rowena Hayward, Jo McCarron (from Bath, already shortlisted in Stroud, Bristol West and NE Somerset) and Lisa Homan (Hammersmith Cllr). Nominations indicated it should be close between the first 2 listed.
About the joker named Fisher, the less said the better !
"I'd expect the LDs to poll 6-10% in GE 2015, and UKIP to poll anything from 15-28% (if UKIP win 'EU 14- they'll poll very well indeed in GE2015).
Too few on here seem to appreciate just how deep the loathing is for the 'political class' as a whole the SNP proved that in 2011"
You are right on there. Loathing of the Lab/lib/Con Party has reached major proportions. I expect that by the GE in 2015, it will have reached Epic proportions and finally start to move the log-jam of our outmoded political system.
On a lighter note: Happy Birthday to RichardNabavi on your 60th. From one almost 20 years your senior, salute.
He would then claim what a great genius he was and a lot of idiots will agree with him. His claim would include that his model was a "self-correcting one".
Anyone , taking an average of the weekly polls, would do no worse !
E.G. I think Vettel will win the next GP but his odds are probably too short right now.
Also have enough capital to cover the variance !
Also I have come to the conclusion that 'luck' is the WHEN of probability.
It's commonly know in the polling arena as a Dan Hodges prediction....total crap.
All Eurozone debt locked up in ECB via complex financial instruments - this will mean each EU country will have to pay others debts.
Euro plunges on report of ECB negative deposit rate : Capital flight http://www.businessinsider.com/ecb-may-consider-negative-deposit-rate-2013-11 …
Richard N Congratulations on reaching your half century
I'll absolubtely coin it if that happens but I don't think its likely.
MikeK Have you had your maximum allowance on P Power Cambourne and Redruth (40-1) and UKIP's best errm UNS chance of a seat ?
Keep young and beautiful, it's your duty to be beautiful, keep young and beautiful for tim's cocktails to be loved.
Happy Birthday, Reverend Doctor.
LOL
Glad to be of assistance:) He seems like a very pleasant, young man.
Now run along home to mummy - you might get an extra helping of angel delight if you're good.
I'm off the site at the moment for various reasons, but will make an exception to wish you many happy returns. I hope the wine is suitably expensive.
Bobajob.
Face a perfect fit for radio sums it up sadly (though don't I look simply gorgeous compared to that smarmy git in my avatar).
Happy birthday Richard..
What he loves, though, is people who post factually inaccurate polling information here. To ingratiate yourself with him why not change your name again and give us the lowdown on next Thursday's yougov?
You're all the same.
After the Blair/Brown years, Ed Miliband really needs a better defence when it comes to handling Labour scandals in the media.
Twitter
Nick Sutton @suttonnick 1m
Independent on Sunday front page - "Miliband: Tories are 'in the gutter'" #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/PpaHuBGyzt
Harry Cole @MrHarryCole 2m
This is what we meant about the tactic of painting all criticism as 'a smear'. Ed claims Labour are above scrutiny for Mid Staffs in Indy.
pic.twitter.com/AJkoptXCr1
I am certain you will agree with me that Ed is magnificently charismatic and eloquent. He is an inspiring and refreshing standard bearer for the social democratic tradition in our great nation. Yes, indeed: One Nation. Nay, his performance at Conference this year must surely have been amongst the greatest (if not the greatest) ever given by a leader of the Labour Party, or indeed of any party leader! Such magnificence, such poise, such alacrity. Wow! And his wonderful repertoire of jokes would put even Harry Hill to shame!
He is articulate, passionate, an accomplished orator, and I think a real progressive alternative to the smarmy posh boy Cameron.
Ed Miliband just made himself a hostage to fortune for the next 18 months until the GE in that smear laden diatribe that is so reminiscent of the New Labour play-book. He was himself right at the heart of the Blair/Brown/Campbell/Mandelson/Balls/Whelan/McBride years of New Labour. But what this article does give us, is an insight into the sheer level of desperation felt by Miliband and his spinners as he attempts to try to blow the recent scandals plaguing him and his party off the front pages.
Unfortunately for Ed Miliband, it does beg the question of who he was standing up for when he took that Labour Inquiry into Falkirk and then tried to bury it? We now know that Ed Miliband isn't planning to stand up for the patients and their relatives at Mid Staffs, the workers at Grangemouth, or the INEOS bosses who were subjected to that 'leverage' campaign by Unite. He also doesn't seem to be interested in anyone digging too deep into what went wrong at the Co-op Bank either.
If he can be this thin skinned to being put under scrutiny, imagine what he'd be like after 2-3 years holded up in the Downing St. bunker! :O
Harry Cole @MrHarryCole 1h
Ed article is breathtaking in its arrogance. Both sad and hilarious only the Sindy took it. Not many will read it, but lots should and laugh
Harry Cole @MrHarryCole 1h
New Labour line: NHS criticism: Smear. City regulation criticism: Smear. Saying leader is a bit odd: Smear. We're funded by co-op: Smear.
Harry Cole @MrHarryCole 1h
Let me guess, pointing out Labour's media strategy is a big iffy? That's a smear too right?
No need for that sort of abuse.
Oh dear, even the Guradina are smearing now.
(Not surpised that Peter Sutherland, GS International Chairman and ex-EU commissioner found a use for the story though)
As well as showing him to take hypocrisy to new heights it also shows he is unsuitable to lead a guide dog let alone a nation.
Here`s the article:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BZyEPd-CQAAicYk.jpg:large
So can I just say that Dr Who was bloody superb. Easily lived up to the billing and a great bit of script writing.
I sat with a big smile on my face for a good 10 minutes after it finished.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/?cartoon=10470586&cc=10419313
"But sometimes you get what you need if you try hard enough."
Union of Concerned Scientists right out of The Daily Mash.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-25067180
People still yearn for the more interesting personalities of politics, but those few who have distinctive personalities and opinions are usually the ones regarded as needing to tone that down to have a real shot at party leaderships. Feed people bland mush for long enough and they come to like it, or at least accept it without passion.
Even without liking UKIP, and being certain they would develop the same types of political behaviour the more established parties have, I wish them great success as if they have it, it will certainly shake things up among the uniform elite of the others.
Anyone suffering with me watching the cricket? All we need is for Cook and Pietersen to bat through the day and we'll have a chance on Monday. Ahem.
We still have the players capable of repeating a similar tale as the 517 - 1 from the last Aussie Ashes, but you certainly wouldn't bet on it in recent form of the sides and the with the Aussies with their tails up.
UK universities agree women can be required to sit separately from men to appease #Islamist extremists. Oppose! SIGN http://www.avaaz.org/en/petition/Universities_UK_Rescind_endorsement_of_sex_segregation_at_UK_Universities/?wUCkfdb …
I like Tatchell, the man had an amicable discussion with Welby about a topic they were never going to agree on in a million years and he also stood up to Mugabe's bunch of disgusting thugs when they came to this country. The man raises a good point about creeping islamism into British society.
And unlike being gay, it can and does and will affect people adversely if Islamist practices like this creep into British life and culture.
Clegg had all sorts of c##p written about him by a small section of the media, and he took it very well and rose above it.
I hope Ed isn't going to try any "smearing" of Cameron and Clegg...be the bigger man...so no pointing out any dodgy donors or any similar scandals that might be problematic for the Tories / Lib Dem from now on eh Ed.
If Canada has a similar issue with bland political classes, maybe that's why Rob Ford was pretty popular, or perhaps he genuinely is a decent mayor were it possible to overlook his personal criminal indiscretions. Anyone know?
They have run pieces in the past hinting very strongly at something or other that I couldn't possibly comment on!
Their own fault though. It's sad they declined so much, but people just don't like the cricket as much over there - no matter the money messes, all the people inspired by the great days of the team should have led to a few more great players popping up.