Actually it is Professor Sir John Curtice, and I apologise for not giving him the due respect.
I 'celeb' spotted him in Edinburgh over the summer, and was quite star struck. My mother was less overwhelmed 'The elections bloke? So what?' she opined...
It is a real shame that the Greens won't (as yet) stand aside in Bedford. The LibDems have a very strong presence on the council and the elected mayor (in a borough whose boundaries don't quite match the constituency, by the Greens have two borough councillors. Lib Dems would have a good chance with a strong candidate (senior local councillor who is also a teacher at Bedford School, Paddy Ashdown's alma mater). Does Mr Smithson have any influence on this?
That is interesting. My model has it as a Labour hold, but *much* closer than this. I have never heard of Gedling (my dataset tells me it is in Nottinghamshire). But I assume the Tories will have to win in a whole lot of places I've never heard of in order to win a majority.
I would be very surprised if the Tories won Gedling. The local MP Vernon Coaker is well liked and has been MP since the landslide of 1997.
But it is just the kind of seat the Tories are targeting - strong leave vote, industrial decline, former mining district "left behind". Baxter forecasts a 12% tory majority so if Labour are holding on, and bearing in mind also the constituency polls in Esher and Wokingham, the Tories are going to do much less well than the national polls suggest.
They aren't as the poll putting the Tories ahead in Workington showed
The really depressing thing about this election is that it will only be another marker in the spiral downwards. When people realise they have given a majority to a liar, but that there is no alternative because Labour are unelectable the anger in the country is only going to rise. If you think it's nasty now, just you wait.
The country needs a centre-left social democratic party as the main opposition, but the problem is even if Labour do very badly on 12th December they may choose another Corbyn type leader instead of learning the lessons of the election.
I have no doubt that Labour would be heading for government at the moment if someone like Yvette Cooper or Lisa Nandy was leading the party.
I doubt it as Boris would still get a mandate for Brexit but it would be closer
If the LDs stand down in too many seats it'll start to affect their national vote share.
If they step down in 30 constituencies where they averaged 5%, then it cuts their vote share down by about 0.25% - noise, basically.
Probably, but I'm going to check on it. If the seats include ones that are larger than average in terms of electorate, like the Isle of Wight and Bristol West, it could be higher.
"He could have, had he chosen to press the nuclear button, instigated a mass walk-out from the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP) and the setting up of a distinct and separate party that espoused traditional Labour values of strong defence, advocacy of a mixed economy and support for international allies. There were many who would have followed him had he decided to lead. It would have deprived Corbyn of the mantle of Leader of the Opposition and removed, probably forever, any prospect of an extreme Left Marxist government in the UK."
But once Corbyn is in power and isn't immediately Stalinesque and the world doesn't collapse, I feel the attacks that he is dangerous become pretty self evidently preposterous.
A
And 6 months of PM Corbyn, who then decides to try and call another general election post whatever the Brexit referendum promised delivers, will be interesting because Labour will have all those policy votes to beat everyone else around the head with.
Until people see the tax being taken off them on their wage slips. And their Council Tax bills. And that they're being forced to pay for "Green" improvements on their house they neither want or need. And taxes on everything soar.
And until the strikes start. And the Unions run rampant. And the lights go out. And the overseas investment stops. And the entrepreneurs don't try or leave. And companies start to collapse. And unemployment soars. And the bread lines creep round corners.
And until the riots start. And the country defaults. And until the IMF come in.
And privatise the NHS.
And Remainers are Project Fear.
A slight move towards democratic socialism, as is currently practised by many countries including the Scandiwegian ones, will cause Libyan style civil wars.
But Brexit, an act of economic self harm no country would even contemplate and many are actively warning us against, will be sunflowers and roses.
Corbyn is not a Social Democrat. To pretend otherwise is deceitful.
I didn't say he was a social democrat, I said he is a democratic socialist; they are different things.
Nevertheless, his economic programme is not "A slight move towards democratic socialism, as is currently practised by many countries including the Scandiwegian one". (sic)
Corbyn has a long-held and deeply rooted hatred of capital and private ownership. In any form. He is more akin ideologically to Castro and Chavez than any Scandinavian socialist.
That you cannot see this, and support it, is to be quite honest quite frightening.
But it will be fun seeing the IMF carving up the NHS and flogging parts to the highest bidders. More out of irony than anything else. But you go ahead. Support your little Communist. Don't say you weren't warned.
I am no Corbyn fan but the IMF cannot just come in and privatise the NHS without Parliament voting for it too
"He could have, had he chosen to press the nuclear button, instigated a mass walk-out from the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP) and the setting up of a distinct and separate party that espoused traditional Labour values of strong defence, advocacy of a mixed economy and support for international allies. There were many who would have followed him had he decided to lead. It would have deprived Corbyn of the mantle of Leader of the Opposition and removed, probably forever, any prospect of an extreme Left Marxist government in the UK."
The really depressing thing about this election is that it will only be another marker in the spiral downwards. When people realise they have given a majority to a liar, but that there is no alternative because Labour are unelectable the anger in the country is only going to rise. If you think it's nasty now, just you wait.
The country needs a centre-left social democratic party as the main opposition, but the problem is even if Labour do very badly on 12th December they may choose another Corbyn type leader instead of learning the lessons of the election.
I have no doubt that Labour would be heading for government at the moment if someone like Yvette Cooper or Lisa Nandy was leading the party.
Would Labour survive another hard left leader without splitting. The likes of the two you mention and others like Jess Phillips would surely not wish to sit out another 1-2 terms waiting for something to come up.
I think Labour has to split. There is no point in it not splitting now that the far-left has made it unelectable.
That is interesting. My model has it as a Labour hold, but *much* closer than this. I have never heard of Gedling (my dataset tells me it is in Nottinghamshire). But I assume the Tories will have to win in a whole lot of places I've never heard of in order to win a majority.
I would be very surprised if the Tories won Gedling. The local MP Vernon Coaker is well liked and has been MP since the landslide of 1997.
But it is just the kind of seat the Tories are targeting - strong leave vote, industrial decline, former mining district "left behind". Baxter forecasts a 12% tory majority so if Labour are holding on, and bearing in mind also the constituency polls in Esher and Wokingham, the Tories are going to do much less well than the national polls suggest.
I don't think it ever had mining. The main settlements are Carlton and Arnold which are suburbs of Nottingham. It's not as Brexity as other Notts constituencies like Bassetlaw and Ashfield, which are more likely to fall.
But once Corbyn is in power and isn't immediately Stalinesque and the world doesn't collapse, I feel the attacks that he is dangerous become pretty self evidently preposterous.
A
And 6 months of PM Corbyn, who then decides to try and call another general election post whatever the Brexit referendum promised delivers, will be interesting because Labour will have all those policy votes to beat everyone else around the head with.
Until people see the tax being taken off them on their wage slips. And their Council Tax bills. And that they're being forced to pay for "Green" improvements on their house they neither want or need. And taxes on everything soar.
And until the strikes start. And the Unions run rampant. And the lights go out. And the overseas investment stops. And the entrepreneurs don't try or leave. And companies start to collapse. And unemployment soars. And the bread lines creep round corners.
And until the riots start. And the country defaults. And until the IMF come in.
And privatise the NHS.
And Remainers are Project Fear.
A slight move towards democratic socialism, as is currently practised by many countries including the Scandiwegian ones, will cause Libyan style civil wars.
But Brexit, an act of economic self harm no country would even contemplate and many are actively warning us against, will be sunflowers and roses.
Corbyn is not a Social Democrat. To pretend otherwise is deceitful.
I didn't say he was a social democrat, I said he is a democratic socialist; they are different things.
Nevertheless, his economic programme is not "A slight move towards democratic socialism, as is currently practised by many countries including the Scandiwegian one". (sic)
Corbyn has a long-held and deeply rooted hatred of capital and private ownership. In any form. He is more akin ideologically to Castro and Chavez than any Scandinavian socialist.
That you cannot see this, and support it, is to be quite honest quite frightening.
But it will be fun seeing the IMF carving up the NHS and flogging parts to the highest bidders. More out of irony than anything else. But you go ahead. Support your little Communist. Don't say you weren't warned.
I am no Corbyn fan but the IMF cannot just come in and privatise the NHS without Parliament voting for it too
Plus ozymandias idea of "fun" says everything we need to know.
Gedling is 57th on the Tory target list, the Tories can win a comfortable majority even without winning Gedling (where the local MP is popular and held on in 2010-2017 anyway).
Indeed even the swing in Gedling on that poll would see the Tories still gain 24 seats from Labour
Gedling is 57th on the Tory target list, the Tories can win a comfortable majority even without winning Gedling (where the local MP is popular and held on in 2010-2017 anyway).
Indeed even the swing in Gedling on that poll would see the Tories still gain 24 seats from Labour
But considering Dom's strategy is to sacrifice some seats to the LDs and SNP, you need to win the 57th seat on your target list to get a functioning majority.
The Greens should be ideally placed to surge in this campaign. Politics has changed remarkably in their favour since 2017, and they should be able to clean up disaffected soft-Left/socialist votes. Particularly with younger voters.
However, due to their idiotically dogmatic beliefs against leadership they are very likely to miss the open goal.
The leadership belief thing you refer to is out of date. Greens have a joint leadership - man and woman. No worse than a job share in any modern business. Lucas is obviously the leader in HoC and would be PM in a Green majority win.
Most voters want to know who will be PM if a party wins.
It certainly isn't out of date. That's absurd. The importance of leadership is timeless and absolute. A leader is the biggest factor in rallying support for a party and taking it in a new direction. It's what members look for. It's what voters look for. It's what drives and inspires people. Even Greta is a leader - she inspires people. If she job shared it she wouldn't have half the impact. The division of its parts is worth far less than the whole.
Natalie Bennett had a far better profile in GE2015 when the environment was far less conducive to Green success. I couldn't even tell you who the Green leader is now without looking it up.
Not that it bothers me. I detest their antediluvian politics and the worse they do the better as far as I'm concerned.
It is a real shame that the Greens won't (as yet) stand aside in Bedford. The LibDems have a very strong presence on the council and the elected mayor (in a borough whose boundaries don't quite match the constituency, by the Greens have two borough councillors. Lib Dems would have a good chance with a strong candidate (senior local councillor who is also a teacher at Bedford School, Paddy Ashdown's alma mater). Does Mr Smithson have any influence on this?
Bedford is precisely the sort of seat where a Remain alliance would make sense, (as opposed to Bristol West and Brighton Pavilion).
The really depressing thing about this election is that it will only be another marker in the spiral downwards. When people realise they have given a majority to a liar, but that there is no alternative because Labour are unelectable the anger in the country is only going to rise. If you think it's nasty now, just you wait.
The country needs a centre-left social democratic party as the main opposition, but the problem is even if Labour do very badly on 12th December they may choose another Corbyn type leader instead of learning the lessons of the election.
I have no doubt that Labour would be heading for government at the moment if someone like Yvette Cooper or Lisa Nandy was leading the party.
Lisa Nandy more so than Yvette Cooper.
Possibly Emily Thornberry could ride both horses if she played her cards right.
If the LDs stand down in too many seats it'll start to affect their national vote share.
If they step down in 30 constituencies where they averaged 5%, then it cuts their vote share down by about 0.25% - noise, basically.
Another point is that although the LDs did very badly in the Isle of Wight and Bristol West in 2017, those are both seats where they've actually won the seat at previous elections and where they could have polled a lot of votes this time.
The Greens should be ideally placed to surge in this campaign. Politics has changed remarkably in their favour since 2017, and they should be able to clean up disaffected soft-Left/socialist votes. Particularly with younger voters.
However, due to their idiotically dogmatic beliefs against leadership they are very likely to miss the open goal.
The Greens are an economically illiterate bunch of pseudo intellectuals who think that chasing rainbows will lead the country to a better place. Ah wait a minute is that Labour I'm referring to? Or maybe the Conservatives?
That is interesting. My model has it as a Labour hold, but *much* closer than this. I have never heard of Gedling (my dataset tells me it is in Nottinghamshire). But I assume the Tories will have to win in a whole lot of places I've never heard of in order to win a majority.
I would be very surprised if the Tories won Gedling. The local MP Vernon Coaker is well liked and has been MP since the landslide of 1997.
But it is just the kind of seat the Tories are targeting - strong leave vote, industrial decline, former mining district "left behind". Baxter forecasts a 12% tory majority so if Labour are holding on, and bearing in mind also the constituency polls in Esher and Wokingham, the Tories are going to do much less well than the national polls suggest.
I don't think it ever had mining. The main settlements are Carlton and Arnold which are suburbs of Nottingham. It's not as Brexity as other Notts constituencies like Bassetlaw and Ashfield, which are more likely to fall.
I think Gedling had some mining, especially at Gedling Colliery.
That is interesting. My model has it as a Labour hold, but *much* closer than this. I have never heard of Gedling (my dataset tells me it is in Nottinghamshire). But I assume the Tories will have to win in a whole lot of places I've never heard of in order to win a majority.
I would be very surprised if the Tories won Gedling. The local MP Vernon Coaker is well liked and has been MP since the landslide of 1997.
But it is just the kind of seat the Tories are targeting - strong leave vote, industrial decline, former mining district "left behind". Baxter forecasts a 12% tory majority so if Labour are holding on, and bearing in mind also the constituency polls in Esher and Wokingham, the Tories are going to do much less well than the national polls suggest.
I don't think it ever had mining. The main settlements are Carlton and Arnold which are suburbs of Nottingham. It's not as Brexity as other Notts constituencies like Bassetlaw and Ashfield, which are more likely to fall.
It definitely had mining. At, er, Gedling colliery IIRC.
If the LDs stand down in too many seats it'll start to affect their national vote share.
If they step down in 30 constituencies where they averaged 5%, then it cuts their vote share down by about 0.25% - noise, basically.
Another point is that although the LDs did very badly in the Isle of Wight and Bristol West in 2017, those are both seats where they've actually won the seat at previous elections and where they could have polled a lot of votes this time.
The voters on the Isle of Wight aren't very fungible.
I go there on holiday a lot. Whilst there's a strong new-age hippie community that fuels the Green vote the backbone of the island is very Conservative and actually rather old fashioned in many places.
Then why not join her government Bill and see it spent well, such as fellow patriots dying because they can’t afford medicine, or living in squalor, or lost job, family home and everything due to drug and alcohol addiction, or losing their factory, job and community because the economy is not transforming post industrial quickly or competently enough.
If the LDs stand down in too many seats it'll start to affect their national vote share.
If they step down in 30 constituencies where they averaged 5%, then it cuts their vote share down by about 0.25% - noise, basically.
Another point is that although the LDs did very badly in the Isle of Wight and Bristol West in 2017, those are both seats where they've actually won the seat at previous elections and where they could have polled a lot of votes this time.
The voters on the Isle of Wight aren't very fungible.
I go there on holiday a lot. Whilst there's a strong new-age hippie community that fuels the Green vote the backbone of the island is very Conservative and actually rather old fashioned in many places.
Agreed. It's very 'small c' conservative. The question then is whether that is any longer true of the Conservative Party.
It is a real shame that the Greens won't (as yet) stand aside in Bedford. The LibDems have a very strong presence on the council and the elected mayor (in a borough whose boundaries don't quite match the constituency, by the Greens have two borough councillors. Lib Dems would have a good chance with a strong candidate (senior local councillor who is also a teacher at Bedford School, Paddy Ashdown's alma mater). Does Mr Smithson have any influence on this?
I have not been active in Bedford politics since the year 2000 and at the last two general elections have voted Labour. in December 12th i'll be back with the LDs because i don't want my vote be seen as support for the antisemite
If the LDs stand down in too many seats it'll start to affect their national vote share.
It is a dumb stupid idiotic policy for a party that wishes to be considered a Major Party, It is very simple, Major Parties don't stand aside for other parties. Every vote counts, as you point out, to National Vote Share. That is important.
Sounds like concern trolling to me.
It most certainly is stupid for Plaid.
The party of Wales disenfranchising their suppporters in individual seats removes their raison d'etre
Would you have considered voting for them otherwise ?
If you are so concerned about the 'disenfranchising' of voters like this, then campaign in favour of PR. Otherwise, you are also concern trolling.
It’s someone living in Wales commenting on Welsh politics
Conversation in Bristol West pub at lunchtime today: Me (looks at news on phone): look LDs aren't standing here [describes pact, standing aside for Greens] Me, aside: fuck it's cost me a fiver Colleague 1: oh no I was going to vote for them Colleague 2: yeah me too C1: don't know who to vote for now C2: nor do i C1: hmm C2: oh
I specifically mentioned greens, but neither of them wanted to switch, or at least didn't say so. Does anyone have similar modest-sample-size anecdata from other Unite2Remain pact seats, and does anyone have any examples of pact vote transference percentages?
It is a real shame that the Greens won't (as yet) stand aside in Bedford. The LibDems have a very strong presence on the council and the elected mayor (in a borough whose boundaries don't quite match the constituency, by the Greens have two borough councillors. Lib Dems would have a good chance with a strong candidate (senior local councillor who is also a teacher at Bedford School, Paddy Ashdown's alma mater). Does Mr Smithson have any influence on this?
I have not been active in Bedford politics since the year 2000 and at the last two general elections have voted Labour. in December 12th i'll be back with the LDs because i don't want my vote be seen as support for the antisemite
No vote swapping this year Mike? That was more divisive on your boards than Brexit as I recall
Gedling is 57th on the Tory target list, the Tories can win a comfortable majority even without winning Gedling (where the local MP is popular and held on in 2010-2017 anyway).
Indeed even the swing in Gedling on that poll would see the Tories still gain 24 seats from Labour
But considering Dom's strategy is to sacrifice some seats to the LDs and SNP, you need to win the 57th seat on your target list to get a functioning majority.
Good to see LD credibility disappear with the pact!
LD now = regional party like SNP and PC - no need to appear on the debates.
Good to see Ave it before trip to the pub rather than after closing time. I thought to myself, who is it posting these sensible highly credible thoughts. OMG
If the LDs stand down in too many seats it'll start to affect their national vote share.
If they step down in 30 constituencies where they averaged 5%, then it cuts their vote share down by about 0.25% - noise, basically.
Another point is that although the LDs did very badly in the Isle of Wight and Bristol West in 2017, those are both seats where they've actually won the seat at previous elections and where they could have polled a lot of votes this time.
Because in the IOW they had very good candidates and locals have an independent streak. But LibDem organisation on the island is in poor shape, and many of their local government activists went off into the Island Independents. Hence standing down for the Greens makes sense.
Then why not join her government Bill and see it spent well, such as fellow patriots dying because they can’t afford medicine, or living in squalor, or lost job, family home and everything due to drug and alcohol addiction, or losing their factory, job and community because the economy is not transforming post industrial quickly or competently enough.
Probably because he has done more good and saved more lives worldwide with spending his own money on good works than the US Government could ever do because basically it is broken and cannot be fixed.
Conversation in Bristol West pub at lunchtime today: Me (looks at news on phone): look LDs aren't standing here [describes pact, standing aside for Greens] Me, aside: fuck it's cost me a fiver Colleague 1: oh no I was going to vote for them Colleague 2: yeah me too C1: don't know who to vote for now C2: nor do i C1: hmm C2: oh
I specifically mentioned greens, but neither of them wanted to switch, or at least didn't say so. Does anyone have similar modest-sample-size anecdata from other Unite2Remain pact seats, and does anyone have any examples of pact vote transference percentages?
Voters aren't units to be moved around as the respective party bosses decide and won't necessarily do as they're told.
If the LDs stand down in too many seats it'll start to affect their national vote share.
If they step down in 30 constituencies where they averaged 5%, then it cuts their vote share down by about 0.25% - noise, basically.
Another point is that although the LDs did very badly in the Isle of Wight and Bristol West in 2017, those are both seats where they've actually won the seat at previous elections and where they could have polled a lot of votes this time.
The voters on the Isle of Wight aren't very fungible.
I go there on holiday a lot. Whilst there's a strong new-age hippie community that fuels the Green vote the backbone of the island is very Conservative and actually rather old fashioned in many places.
Agreed. It's very 'small c' conservative. The question then is whether that is any longer true of the Conservative Party.
Conversation in Bristol West pub at lunchtime today: Me (looks at news on phone): look LDs aren't standing here [describes pact, standing aside for Greens] Me, aside: fuck it's cost me a fiver Colleague 1: oh no I was going to vote for them Colleague 2: yeah me too C1: don't know who to vote for now C2: nor do i C1: hmm C2: oh
I specifically mentioned greens, but neither of them wanted to switch, or at least didn't say so. Does anyone have similar modest-sample-size anecdata from other Unite2Remain pact seats, and does anyone have any examples of pact vote transference percentages?
Is that how you say you are not very happy about it. You certain to serve Jones his chips though, that should cheer you up?
If the LDs stand down in too many seats it'll start to affect their national vote share.
If they step down in 30 constituencies where they averaged 5%, then it cuts their vote share down by about 0.25% - noise, basically.
Another point is that although the LDs did very badly in the Isle of Wight and Bristol West in 2017, those are both seats where they've actually won the seat at previous elections and where they could have polled a lot of votes this time.
Because in the IOW they had very good candidates and locals have an independent streak. But LibDem organisation on the island is in poor shape, and many of their local government activists went off into the Island Independents. Hence standing down for the Greens makes sense.
The weather today has been dreadful with torrential rain and it was dark by 3.00pm
I know it is one day but it is likely to be dark quite early from now on.
The question must be whether this will be the election that saw canvassing and door knocking at record low levels
And if so will it matter
Very good question. If one party has fantastic ground game, the other brilliant computer database and target internet adds, it’s got to favour the second?
Gedling is 57th on the Tory target list, the Tories can win a comfortable majority even without winning Gedling (where the local MP is popular and held on in 2010-2017 anyway).
Indeed even the swing in Gedling on that poll would see the Tories still gain 24 seats from Labour
But considering Dom's strategy is to sacrifice some seats to the LDs and SNP, you need to win the 57th seat on your target list to get a functioning majority.
224 seats enough as SF do not take their seats
224 enough! Are SNP planning on helping the Tories out yet again! 😜
Then why not join her government Bill and see it spent well, such as fellow patriots dying because they can’t afford medicine, or living in squalor, or lost job, family home and everything due to drug and alcohol addiction, or losing their factory, job and community because the economy is not transforming post industrial quickly or competently enough.
Probably because he has done more good and saved more lives worldwide with spending his own money on good works than the US Government could ever do because basically it is broken and cannot be fixed.
Good to see LD credibility disappear with the pact!
LD now = regional party like SNP and PC - no need to appear on the debates.
Well that’s complete bollocks and beyond me how you get to that assessment.
Good to have engagement with my old friend nichomar.
It's a factual statement as LDs are doing deals with regional parties ie PC, small interest pressure groups ie Greens and not standing in a lot of constituencies.
More learned members of this site will recall relatively recent wins for LD in places like Isle of Wight so it does appear to be a surrender strategy this time.
6% of your wealth above $1bn. Seems pretty reasonable to me. Doubtless someone will be along shortly to explain how we wouldn't have started Microsoft if he had know about this tax.
The weather today has been dreadful with torrential rain and it was dark by 3.00pm
I know it is one day but it is likely to be dark quite early from now on.
The question must be whether this will be the election that saw canvassing and door knocking at record low levels
And if so will it matter
Very good question. If one party has fantastic ground game, the other brilliant computer database and target internet adds, it’s got to favour the second?
You would think so though they should have both
It is also very short. 5 weeks today plus just over three hours it is all over
Gedling is 57th on the Tory target list, the Tories can win a comfortable majority even without winning Gedling (where the local MP is popular and held on in 2010-2017 anyway).
Indeed even the swing in Gedling on that poll would see the Tories still gain 24 seats from Labour
But considering Dom's strategy is to sacrifice some seats to the LDs and SNP, you need to win the 57th seat on your target list to get a functioning majority.
The weather today has been dreadful with torrential rain and it was dark by 3.00pm
I know it is one day but it is likely to be dark quite early from now on.
The question must be whether this will be the election that saw canvassing and door knocking at record low levels
And if so will it matter
Very good question. If one party has fantastic ground game, the other brilliant computer database and target internet adds, it’s got to favour the second?
You would think so though they should have both
It is also very short. 5 weeks today plus just over three hours it is all over
Maybe !!!!
Your question about the weather appears to have blown this thread away already. See you next door.
The Lib Dems are standing down in just 17 seats . In fact rather than lose credibility they’re more likely to attract Labour and Tory Remainers , working with other parties to stop Brexit is a good thing IMO .
Unite to Remain is a powerful and positive message.
6% of your wealth above $1bn. Seems pretty reasonable to me. Doubtless someone will be along shortly to explain how we wouldn't have started Microsoft if he had know about this tax.
If the LDs stand down in too many seats it'll start to affect their national vote share.
If they step down in 30 constituencies where they averaged 5%, then it cuts their vote share down by about 0.25% - noise, basically.
Another point is that although the LDs did very badly in the Isle of Wight and Bristol West in 2017, those are both seats where they've actually won the seat at previous elections and where they could have polled a lot of votes this time.
Because in the IOW they had very good candidates and locals have an independent streak. But LibDem organisation on the island is in poor shape, and many of their local government activists went off into the Island Independents. Hence standing down for the Greens makes sense.
Safe Tory hold.
If the Greens come second, they have a chance to establish themselves as the focal point for non-Tories and squeeze Labour further in future elections. Although the island has recently been strongly conservative, it isn’t prosperous (indeed it has significant areas of deprivation) and longer term someone ought to be able to challenge the Tories. When Brexit goes pear shaped would be a good time.
It is a real shame that the Greens won't (as yet) stand aside in Bedford. The LibDems have a very strong presence on the council and the elected mayor (in a borough whose boundaries don't quite match the constituency, by the Greens have two borough councillors. Lib Dems would have a good chance with a strong candidate (senior local councillor who is also a teacher at Bedford School, Paddy Ashdown's alma mater). Does Mr Smithson have any influence on this?
I have not been active in Bedford politics since the year 2000 and at the last two general elections have voted Labour. in December 12th i'll be back with the LDs because i don't want my vote be seen as support for the antisemite
....That was more divisive on your boards than Brexit as I recall ...
That is interesting. My model has it as a Labour hold, but *much* closer than this. I have never heard of Gedling (my dataset tells me it is in Nottinghamshire). But I assume the Tories will have to win in a whole lot of places I've never heard of in order to win a majority.
I would be very surprised if the Tories won Gedling. The local MP Vernon Coaker is well liked and has been MP since the landslide of 1997.
But it is just the kind of seat the Tories are targeting - strong leave vote, industrial decline, former mining district "left behind". Baxter forecasts a 12% tory majority so if Labour are holding on, and bearing in mind also the constituency polls in Esher and Wokingham, the Tories are going to do much less well than the national polls suggest.
I don't think it ever had mining. The main settlements are Carlton and Arnold which are suburbs of Nottingham. It's not as Brexity as other Notts constituencies like Bassetlaw and Ashfield, which are more likely to fall.
It did have mining. Gedling colliery closed in 1991.
The weather today has been dreadful with torrential rain and it was dark by 3.00pm
I know it is one day but it is likely to be dark quite early from now on.
The question must be whether this will be the election that saw canvassing and door knocking at record low levels
And if so will it matter
Very good question. If one party has fantastic ground game, the other brilliant computer database and target internet adds, it’s got to favour the second?
This is I think a matter of some debate. I think from Cummings's blog that it is not as easy as that and buying stacks of Facebook ads is not necessarily helpful. Happy to be contradicted on this but I think ground game (personal contact, knocking people up, - stop giggling) is still better. Anybody got evidence against?
Good to see LD credibility disappear with the pact!
LD now = regional party like SNP and PC - no need to appear on the debates.
Well that’s complete bollocks and beyond me how you get to that assessment.
Good to have engagement with my old friend nichomar.
It's a factual statement as LDs are doing deals with regional parties ie PC, small interest pressure groups ie Greens and not standing in a lot of constituencies.
More learned members of this site will recall relatively recent wins for LD in places like Isle of Wight so it does appear to be a surrender strategy this time.
Well not standing in IOW doesn’t make you a regional party. I remember Ross and the Ike fuck ups that followed. Also Brand. If we had a sensible voting system the none of this would be necessary but we don’t. Do I know how this election will play out? No I live many miles away but the outcome could impact my and my children’s future. This is a unique opportunity for change where both, so called, main party leaders are not fit to run a whelk stall so we will have to see what happens.
Conversation in Bristol West pub at lunchtime today: Me (looks at news on phone): look LDs aren't standing here [describes pact, standing aside for Greens] Me, aside: fuck it's cost me a fiver Colleague 1: oh no I was going to vote for them Colleague 2: yeah me too C1: don't know who to vote for now C2: nor do i C1: hmm C2: oh
I specifically mentioned greens, but neither of them wanted to switch, or at least didn't say so. Does anyone have similar modest-sample-size anecdata from other Unite2Remain pact seats, and does anyone have any examples of pact vote transference percentages?
Is that how you say you are not very happy about it. You certain to serve Jones his chips though, that should cheer you up?
No, I'm genuinely interested in vote pact transferability. If votes are as transferable as the FT tweets above suggest, then that's a handful of gains for LD, and GRN to win Bristol W looks value at 3/1. If it's no more transferable than my anecdote suggests, lab 1/3 looks safe.
If the LDs stand down in too many seats it'll start to affect their national vote share.
If they step down in 30 constituencies where they averaged 5%, then it cuts their vote share down by about 0.25% - noise, basically.
Another point is that although the LDs did very badly in the Isle of Wight and Bristol West in 2017, those are both seats where they've actually won the seat at previous elections and where they could have polled a lot of votes this time.
Yes. But there are very few real Green prospects, so the LDs needed to offer them something "juicy" in order to get them to step down in 40 odd seats.
That is interesting. My model has it as a Labour hold, but *much* closer than this. I have never heard of Gedling (my dataset tells me it is in Nottinghamshire). But I assume the Tories will have to win in a whole lot of places I've never heard of in order to win a majority.
I would be very surprised if the Tories won Gedling. The local MP Vernon Coaker is well liked and has been MP since the landslide of 1997.
But it is just the kind of seat the Tories are targeting - strong leave vote, industrial decline, former mining district "left behind". Baxter forecasts a 12% tory majority so if Labour are holding on, and bearing in mind also the constituency polls in Esher and Wokingham, the Tories are going to do much less well than the national polls suggest.
Gedling is Nottingham outer suburbs and has been trending Labour for decades and I believe trending downwards in socioeconomic terms - the two are likely connected.
Its really the opposite of Sherwood, Ashfield and Mansfield.
Comments
I 'celeb' spotted him in Edinburgh over the summer, and was quite star struck. My mother was less overwhelmed 'The elections bloke? So what?' she opined...
I hope she doesn't become one of those interviewers that politicians do their best to avoid being questioned by.
https://mobile.twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1192495269981687808
https://twitter.com/CarolLeonnig/status/1192480117483855874
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/11/07/downfall-tom-watson-has-sealed-labour-partys-fate/
"He could have, had he chosen to press the nuclear button, instigated a mass walk-out from the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP) and the setting up of a distinct and separate party that espoused traditional Labour values of strong defence, advocacy of a mixed economy and support for international allies.
There were many who would have followed him had he decided to lead. It would have deprived Corbyn of the mantle of Leader of the Opposition and removed, probably forever, any prospect of an extreme Left Marxist government in the UK."
Indeed even the swing in Gedling on that poll would see the Tories still gain 24 seats from Labour
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/07/pm-gives-cast-iron-pledge-to-refuse-second-scottish-independence-vote
Natalie Bennett had a far better profile in GE2015 when the environment was far less conducive to Green success. I couldn't even tell you who the Green leader is now without looking it up.
Not that it bothers me. I detest their antediluvian politics and the worse they do the better as far as I'm concerned.
Funny it doesn't concern them though.
Possibly Emily Thornberry could ride both horses if she played her cards right.
https://www.coventrytelegraph.net/news/coventry-news/coventry-labour-candidate-faces-re-17217042
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1192501418898468865
We'll see what his successor as the leader of the non-far left PLP does.
Boris's Bannockburn?
I go there on holiday a lot. Whilst there's a strong new-age hippie community that fuels the Green vote the backbone of the island is very Conservative and actually rather old fashioned in many places.
Hopefully that'll mean a very big turnout, in the 70s.
LD now = regional party like SNP and PC - no need to appear on the debates.
Me (looks at news on phone): look LDs aren't standing here [describes pact, standing aside for Greens]
Me, aside: fuck it's cost me a fiver
Colleague 1: oh no I was going to vote for them
Colleague 2: yeah me too
C1: don't know who to vote for now
C2: nor do i
C1: hmm
C2: oh
I specifically mentioned greens, but neither of them wanted to switch, or at least didn't say so. Does anyone have similar modest-sample-size anecdata from other Unite2Remain pact seats, and does anyone have any examples of pact vote transference percentages?
I'm betting on a lower turnout. I sense little enthusiasm for this election and a lot of fed up voters.
I know it is one day but it is likely to be dark quite early from now on.
The question must be whether this will be the election that saw canvassing and door knocking at record low levels
And if so will it matter
Are SNP planning on helping the Tories out yet again! 😜
Bit fatalistic if true though.
It's a factual statement as LDs are doing deals with regional parties ie PC, small interest pressure groups ie Greens and not standing in a lot of constituencies.
More learned members of this site will recall relatively recent wins for LD in places like Isle of Wight so it does appear to be a surrender strategy this time.
It is also very short. 5 weeks today plus just over three hours it is all over
Maybe !!!!
Unite to Remain is a powerful and positive message.
I look forward to the LDs not cooperating with Greens at the next council election.
NEW THREAD
Its really the opposite of Sherwood, Ashfield and Mansfield.