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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Conservatives’ election chances. Ten Seats To Watch

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  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698

    London Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 39% (+4)
    CON: 29% (+6)
    LDM: 19% (-2)
    BXP: 6% (-4)
    GRN: 5% (-2)

    Via @YouGov, 30 Oct-4 Nov.
    Changes w/ 7-10 May.

    Surely con and labour the wrong way round, here ?
    Almost irrelevant. Virtually every marginal seat in London is affected by local circumstances (defectors/racism/brexit/scandals) which will make the constituency results vary wildly from the regional UNS.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    edited November 2019
    I'd like to take the credit for the Tory gain in Coventry South, having been the first person to vet the labour candidate's social media (clearly before Labour did anyway). Since then the BBC and many other news outlets have covered the story. Pressure on her to stand down is huge now.

    https://twitter.com/IanAustinMP/status/1191602146464153600
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    The contours of Labour's campaign form themselves:

    https://twitter.com/CasparSalmon/status/1191680946795401216

    Setting aside the political implications for the moment, I'm intrigued by "in the EU there are no allowable limits for foreign bodies in food products". Does this mean actually zero tolerance? In which case either the US manufacturers are incompetent, or (more likely) the EU manufacturers are constantly breaking the rules with no penalty. Or does it mean there are actually no limits, and manufacturers can do what they like?

    Or is this like the vehicle emissions targets, where the rules are just ignored and the EU does nothing, because they designed the rules that govern the testing poorly?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2019
    Labour's worst-ever showing in London was 30% in 1983. It's interesting that they're not hugely above that figure in this new poll despite all the demographic change that's happened in London since 1983.

    https://www.parliament.uk/documents/commons-information-office/m09.pdf
  • Brom said:

    There are so many ways to look at polls but effectively every poll we have seen so far will lead to a Tory majority. Yet odds on a Tory majority are greater than evens. So the betting has already built in the concept that Labour will campaign well and will close the gap on the Conservatives.

    But does the betting take into account that the polling methods have changed since 2017 and that the polling is potentially more accurate now than it was 5 weeks prior to the 2017 election? If the 2017 Corbyn surge was as much down to bad polling samples/models than it was a great Labour campaign then surely the Tories are in a very, very good place right now for a majority with a 'believable' double figure lead.

    The bookies odds like finding money on the pavement good at present, here in the Midland's Labour look in a dire situation, they are not that confident of holding many seats at all but it is those early days of December that will count.
  • woody662woody662 Posts: 255
    Watching Jo Swinson this morning, I was reminded a lot of Veruca Salt from Charlie and the Chocolate Factory.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    I didn't realise Aaron Bell MP (manque) was such a red hot favourite

    Go, Tissue Price!
  • camel said:

    The contours of Labour's campaign form themselves:

    https://twitter.com/CasparSalmon/status/1191680946795401216

    Do people buy this rubbish?

    Anything that is grown has insects fragments, rat shit and lots of slug slime. Washing helps. Cooking helps more. 3mg/454g seems pretty clean to me.

    Please do not wonder how much cow piss there is in milk.
    None. A cow's urethra is on the back of the cow. The udder is underneath. The urine lands a metre or two behind the cow.

    Besides, udders get cleaned before milking. As someone who has cleaned hundreds, if not thousands of udders, I speak from experience.
    Udderly fascinating, Bev!
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Brom said:

    Anorak said:

    Brom said:

    Anorak said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Brom said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Brom said:

    Sensible for Mogg to apologise. Even if he thinks that and he is indeed correct in this case it is not wise contradict emergency service advise.

    He is lucky this story has little exposure and will probably only be seen by a small minority of the public thanks to his swift apology.

    Doubtless it'll be banged round Another Angry Voice et al facebook and twitter for a week or so though.
    Yeah, it'll rally the far left hatred of Tories. Hard to say if it'll translate into any extra votes though.
    Could cost Kensington
    'Most read' on BBC news:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-50302573
    LMAO. I'd been waiting for that. Brom's original quote pretty much meant that was fated to happen.
    Sure but it's still a minority, where will it be on the TV news and won't a lot of folk nod along in agreement?
    You'll drop all those straws, if you're not careful.

    It was one of the 3 or 4 stories rolling around the BBC News Channel ticker.
    My office is full of TVs, havent seen it once. Not to say it won't but it's not as harmful as Jezza's Brexit gaffes IMO.
    Perhaps I'm suffering from a bit of confirmation bias.

    That said, it's currently front page and prominent on BBC News and Sky News and ITV news websites, and (obviously) the left-leaning papers. Bit further down on the Daily Mail, unsurprisingly.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,873
    On topic, and on the subject of Southport (and reposted from late last night), I've heard from my own constituency of Bootle, that the Bootle and Sefton Central Lib Dems are basically abandoning campaigning in these two seats to throw everything they have at Southport.

    All I've been told I'll get is the state paid for leaflet, and nowt else.

    I assume that's all I'll get off any of the parties in my seat.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,060
    alb1on said:

    London Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 39% (+4)
    CON: 29% (+6)
    LDM: 19% (-2)
    BXP: 6% (-4)
    GRN: 5% (-2)

    Via @YouGov, 30 Oct-4 Nov.
    Changes w/ 7-10 May.

    Surely con and labour the wrong way round, here ?
    Almost irrelevant. Virtually every marginal seat in London is affected by local circumstances (defectors/racism/brexit/scandals) which will make the constituency results vary wildly from the regional UNS.
    There is also a big split between inner and outer London
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,703

    camel said:

    The contours of Labour's campaign form themselves:

    https://twitter.com/CasparSalmon/status/1191680946795401216

    Do people buy this rubbish?

    Anything that is grown has insects fragments, rat shit and lots of slug slime. Washing helps. Cooking helps more. 3mg/454g seems pretty clean to me.

    Please do not wonder how much cow piss there is in milk.
    None. A cow's urethra is on the back of the cow. The udder is underneath. The urine lands a metre or two behind the cow.

    Besides, udders get cleaned before milking. As someone who has cleaned hundreds, if not thousands of udders, I speak from experience.
    Yep the piece was from the Indy.

    Long debunked. The US is just rather more transparent.

    http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=87019

    Nice double meaning ... is the rubbish the peanut butter, or the guff in the quote :-) .
  • On topic, and on the subject of Southport (and reposted from late last night), I've heard from my own constituency of Bootle, that the Bootle and Sefton Central Lib Dems are basically abandoning campaigning in these two seats to throw everything they have at Southport.

    All I've been told I'll get is the state paid for leaflet, and nowt else.

    I assume that's all I'll get off any of the parties in my seat.

    That’s telling.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    woody662 said:

    Watching Jo Swinson this morning, I was reminded a lot of Veruca Salt from Charlie and the Chocolate Factory.

    She has a voice problem. It's a big issue and comes up time and time again. Not enough to put off Europhiles but perhaps enough for Lab/Lib and Con/Lib switchers with a mild interest in politics. Thatcher got elocution lessons, she should do the same IMO.
  • Swinson kind of needs a result where Labour and SNP is enough to form a government without her. She's beginning to box herself into a corner with her anti Corbyn comments, simply because if the result is a NOM needing LD votes she will have to pick a side, and it's the Labour side that is currently closest to the LD position regardless of Corbyn. Clear that she's currently choosing her words carefully but she may get pressed harder on this soon enough. She needs to make immediate PR a precondition of any pact, which would put the ball back in Labour's court.

    Now she has taken on Luciana and Chukka her position on Corbyn is rather forced on her. The chances of any pact with Corbyn are zero.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,873

    Nigelb said:

    Swinson: "Luciana didn't want to leave Labour she was driven"

    I see what she wants to say here, but is it wise to say some of your candidates are only here for negative reasons.

    Or you might be saying that you are offering a broad church party of the centre, which can accommodate both Conservative and Labour members who have been driven out by the lurch of their own parties away from the centre ground.
    Indeed. So say that. Keep saying it. There are millions of voters without a home now the two main parties have gone totally nuts.
    Indeed. Lib Dems are the only lot left that I can vote for even though it will be a pointless vote as they have no chance where I live. I am wondering whether to bother voting at all.
    I'd always suggest voting.

    I mean, this Leaver (me) is going to vote Liberal Democrat... in BOOTLE! I mean, if that isn't the definition of insanity, I don't know what is.

    But I'm still going to do it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    camel said:

    The contours of Labour's campaign form themselves:

    https://twitter.com/CasparSalmon/status/1191680946795401216

    Do people buy this rubbish?

    Anything that is grown has insects fragments, rat shit and lots of slug slime. Washing helps. Cooking helps more. 3mg/454g seems pretty clean to me.

    Please do not wonder how much cow piss there is in milk.
    None. A cow's urethra is on the back of the cow. The udder is underneath. The urine lands a metre or two behind the cow.

    Besides, udders get cleaned before milking. As someone who has cleaned hundreds, if not thousands of udders, I speak from experience.
    I think camel might be hoping for a job with Trump's FDA ?
  • Brom said:

    woody662 said:

    Watching Jo Swinson this morning, I was reminded a lot of Veruca Salt from Charlie and the Chocolate Factory.

    She has a voice problem. It's a big issue and comes up time and time again. Not enough to put off Europhiles but perhaps enough for Lab/Lib and Con/Lib switchers with a mild interest in politics. Thatcher got elocution lessons, she should do the same IMO.
    I totally agree with that, Swinson will turn off voters before anyone listens to anything she has to say. Women leaders are a good idea if the have the required qualities, I think Swinson is a poor choice and will prove to be so very soon.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    macisback said:

    Women leaders are a good idea if...

    Hmmm.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,873

    Nigelb said:

    Swinson: "Luciana didn't want to leave Labour she was driven"

    I see what she wants to say here, but is it wise to say some of your candidates are only here for negative reasons.

    Or you might be saying that you are offering a broad church party of the centre, which can accommodate both Conservative and Labour members who have been driven out by the lurch of their own parties away from the centre ground.
    Indeed. So say that. Keep saying it. There are millions of voters without a home now the two main parties have gone totally nuts.
    Indeed. Lib Dems are the only lot left that I can vote for even though it will be a pointless vote as they have no chance where I live. I am wondering whether to bother voting at all.
    I'd always suggest voting.

    I mean, this Leaver (me) is going to vote Liberal Democrat... in BOOTLE! I mean, if that isn't the definition of insanity, I don't know what is.

    But I'm still going to do it.
    Will you still be let into the local working men's clubs if you vote anything other than Labour there ?
  • Will The Apprentice be pulled? It was in 2010 because the Tories feared the sight of Lord Sugar's finger would drive Labour voters to the polls.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    Betting:
    I notice Karl McCartney, the *ahem* "controversial" former incumbent, is standing for the tories in Lincoln against Labour front bencher Karen Lee.
    Each year the town becomes increasingly 'studenty', and term ends a week after the election. The LibDems are nowhere.

    6/5 on labour to hold this brexity place looks good value to me, with BXP nullifying UNS.
  • woody662woody662 Posts: 255
    Brom said:

    woody662 said:

    Watching Jo Swinson this morning, I was reminded a lot of Veruca Salt from Charlie and the Chocolate Factory.

    She has a voice problem. It's a big issue and comes up time and time again. Not enough to put off Europhiles but perhaps enough for Lab/Lib and Con/Lib switchers with a mild interest in politics. Thatcher got elocution lessons, she should do the same IMO.
    Not sure it's just the voice but the overall persona of being a bit whingy.
  • On topic, and on the subject of Southport (and reposted from late last night), I've heard from my own constituency of Bootle, that the Bootle and Sefton Central Lib Dems are basically abandoning campaigning in these two seats to throw everything they have at Southport.

    All I've been told I'll get is the state paid for leaflet, and nowt else.

    I assume that's all I'll get off any of the parties in my seat.

    That’s telling.
    Well, no one but Labour will ever win Bootle...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,349
    Pulpstar said:

    London Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 39% (+4)
    CON: 29% (+6)
    LDM: 19% (-2)
    BXP: 6% (-4)
    GRN: 5% (-2)

    Via @YouGov, 30 Oct-4 Nov.
    Changes w/ 7-10 May.

    2017 result:

    % vote
    54.5% LAB
    33.1% CON
    8.8% LD
    1.8% GRN
    1.3% UKIP
    0.5% OTH

    Changes

    Lab (-15.5)
    Con (-4.1)
    LD (+10.2)
    BXP (+4.7) (From UKIP I suppose)
    GRN (+3.2)
    OTH (+1.5) (Implied)

    Lab -> Con swing 5.7%
    Con -> LD swing 7.15%
    Lab -> LD Swing 12.85%

    Implied on Uniform (London) Swing (ULS)

    Con Gain: Kensington, Battersea, Enfield Southgate, Croydon Central, Dagenham

    LD Gain: Richmond Park, Bermondsey & Old Southwark

    Con +4, Lab -5, LD +1
    I thought London was meant to be Labour's political safe space?
  • London Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 39% (+4)
    CON: 29% (+6)
    LDM: 19% (-2)
    BXP: 6% (-4)
    GRN: 5% (-2)

    Via @YouGov, 30 Oct-4 Nov.
    Changes w/ 7-10 May.

    A picture seems to be emerging that the two mains parties are taking shares from the minor parties and the lib dem 'revoke' policy could be their 'poll tax'

    A completely unnecessary own goal. They should have campaigned for a second refererendum

    I doubt the LD Revoke policy is having any affect at all. My guess is that the fact there is a real election in the offing has concentrated quite a few anti-Tory minds and that a lot of anti-Tory voters are now beginning to look at who has the best chance of defeating the Tory in their constituency.

    Agreed, with there being few LD marginals, voters need to see them polling close to 20% to not feel the vote is being wasted. If they can get momentum I think the jump from 15% to 25% is plausible, but otherwise it looks like they will end up in low teens with 20-30 seats.

    There are probably as many anti Tory votes as there are pro Labour or pro LD votes, and those break disproportionately Labour in an election not because anti Tory voters like Labour, but because they give the best chance of voting success.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    edited November 2019
    *New London poll* (I presume this is a new poll rather than subsamples from previous yougov) with full article

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1191691198987227136
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,873
    Pulpstar said:



    Will you still be let into the local working men's clubs if you vote anything other than Labour there ?

    I don't go to Crosby Comrades club.....

    Far too busy helping the NCR you see........
    Helios 1 won't restart itself (certainly not with Fantastic trying to do it).
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141
    nunu2 said:
    For a moment, I thought that was a national poll. It's worth my while to give the Tories a hand in Southgate.
  • woody662 said:

    Brom said:

    woody662 said:

    Watching Jo Swinson this morning, I was reminded a lot of Veruca Salt from Charlie and the Chocolate Factory.

    She has a voice problem. It's a big issue and comes up time and time again. Not enough to put off Europhiles but perhaps enough for Lab/Lib and Con/Lib switchers with a mild interest in politics. Thatcher got elocution lessons, she should do the same IMO.
    Not sure it's just the voice but the overall persona of being a bit whingy.
    Vicky Pollard :lol:
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,349

    Nigelb said:

    Swinson: "Luciana didn't want to leave Labour she was driven"

    I see what she wants to say here, but is it wise to say some of your candidates are only here for negative reasons.

    Or you might be saying that you are offering a broad church party of the centre, which can accommodate both Conservative and Labour members who have been driven out by the lurch of their own parties away from the centre ground.
    Indeed. So say that. Keep saying it. There are millions of voters without a home now the two main parties have gone totally nuts.
    Indeed. Lib Dems are the only lot left that I can vote for even though it will be a pointless vote as they have no chance where I live. I am wondering whether to bother voting at all.
    I'd always suggest voting.

    I mean, this Leaver (me) is going to vote Liberal Democrat... in BOOTLE! I mean, if that isn't the definition of insanity, I don't know what is.

    But I'm still going to do it.
    The Gods of Democracy salute your resolve.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,703
    Not yet wrapped Christmas present arrives .... Lynx 12 days of Christmas Grooming Kit. Nooooooooooooooo.

    Does anyone have a 14 year old grandson they have not shopped for yet?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,551
    edited November 2019
    Brom said:

    woody662 said:

    Watching Jo Swinson this morning, I was reminded a lot of Veruca Salt from Charlie and the Chocolate Factory.

    She has a voice problem. It's a big issue and comes up time and time again. Not enough to put off Europhiles but perhaps enough for Lab/Lib and Con/Lib switchers with a mild interest in politics. Thatcher got elocution lessons, she should do the same IMO.
    She's having voice coaching. It showed in the HOC where she spoke slowly and with a lower timbre and got attention and respect. It shows less well in interviews where she is not delivering a prepared speech and is having to think more of the content of her response that how she delivers it. I'm sure she'll continue to receive coaching. I believe her voice coach also coached Rees-Mogg's sister Annunciata.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,703

    Pulpstar said:

    London Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 39% (+4)
    CON: 29% (+6)
    LDM: 19% (-2)
    BXP: 6% (-4)
    GRN: 5% (-2)

    Via @YouGov, 30 Oct-4 Nov.
    Changes w/ 7-10 May.

    2017 result:

    % vote
    54.5% LAB
    33.1% CON
    8.8% LD
    1.8% GRN
    1.3% UKIP
    0.5% OTH

    Changes

    Lab (-15.5)
    Con (-4.1)
    LD (+10.2)
    BXP (+4.7) (From UKIP I suppose)
    GRN (+3.2)
    OTH (+1.5) (Implied)

    Lab -> Con swing 5.7%
    Con -> LD swing 7.15%
    Lab -> LD Swing 12.85%

    Implied on Uniform (London) Swing (ULS)

    Con Gain: Kensington, Battersea, Enfield Southgate, Croydon Central, Dagenham

    LD Gain: Richmond Park, Bermondsey & Old Southwark

    Con +4, Lab -5, LD +1
    I thought London was meant to be Labour's political safe space?
    The Tory MPs will not be allowed into the Student Bar.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Swansea West might be interesting. 7,000 lab maj with UKIP poling almost 5000 in 2015, 11,000 lab maj with no UKIP candidate in 2017. And a solid-ish tory vote.

    Big remain vote might be tempted by lib dems - and Brexit Party will hit South Wales very hard. Outside chance of an upset, true, but I wonder....
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    Labour has a 10% lead in new London poll

    Labour 39%
    TORIES 29%
    Libdems 19%

    Pulpstar said:

    London Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 39% (+4)
    CON: 29% (+6)
    LDM: 19% (-2)
    BXP: 6% (-4)
    GRN: 5% (-2)

    Via @YouGov, 30 Oct-4 Nov.
    Changes w/ 7-10 May.

    2017 result:

    % vote
    54.5% LAB
    33.1% CON
    8.8% LD
    1.8% GRN
    1.3% UKIP
    0.5% OTH

    Changes

    Lab (-15.5)
    Con (-4.1)
    LD (+10.2)
    BXP (+4.7) (From UKIP I suppose)
    GRN (+3.2)
    OTH (+1.5) (Implied)

    Lab -> Con swing 5.7%
    Con -> LD swing 7.15%
    Lab -> LD Swing 12.85%

    Implied on Uniform (London) Swing (ULS)

    Con Gain: Kensington, Battersea, Enfield Southgate, Croydon Central, Dagenham

    LD Gain: Richmond Park, Bermondsey & Old Southwark

    Con +4, Lab -5, LD +1
    I thought London was meant to be Labour's political safe space?
    Is there anywhere Labour are not down 15%?
  • Barnesian said:

    Brom said:

    woody662 said:

    Watching Jo Swinson this morning, I was reminded a lot of Veruca Salt from Charlie and the Chocolate Factory.

    She has a voice problem. It's a big issue and comes up time and time again. Not enough to put off Europhiles but perhaps enough for Lab/Lib and Con/Lib switchers with a mild interest in politics. Thatcher got elocution lessons, she should do the same IMO.
    She's having voice coaching. It showed in the HOC where she spoke slowly and with a lower timbre and got attention and respect. It shows less well in interviews where she is not delivering a prepared speech and is having to think more of the content of her response that how she delivers it. I'm sure she'll continue to receive coaching. I believe her voice coach also coached Rees-Mogg's sister Annunciata.
    At least Annunziata doesn't have that faux-posh affected accent that Jacob puts on!
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,873
    edited November 2019

    On topic, and on the subject of Southport (and reposted from late last night), I've heard from my own constituency of Bootle, that the Bootle and Sefton Central Lib Dems are basically abandoning campaigning in these two seats to throw everything they have at Southport.

    All I've been told I'll get is the state paid for leaflet, and nowt else.

    I assume that's all I'll get off any of the parties in my seat.

    That’s telling.
    Well, no one but Labour will ever win Bootle...
    All my work colleagues are asking me, as the political one, who is going to win in their seat of Liverpool [Walton/Riverside/Wavertree] etc etc and I just say, "Labour".

    Only the West Kirby colleague do I answer, "Not sure, probably Conservative".
    Merseyside is great. Nice and easy. Who's going to win?

    LABOUR! LABOUR! LABOUR EVERYWHERE!

    Where's my red flag?
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    On these London numbers Boris should be safe in Uxbridge, most of the people who live there dont consider it London anyway.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    Nigelb said:

    Swinson: "Luciana didn't want to leave Labour she was driven"

    I see what she wants to say here, but is it wise to say some of your candidates are only here for negative reasons.

    Or you might be saying that you are offering a broad church party of the centre, which can accommodate both Conservative and Labour members who have been driven out by the lurch of their own parties away from the centre ground.
    Indeed. So say that. Keep saying it. There are millions of voters without a home now the two main parties have gone totally nuts.
    Indeed. Lib Dems are the only lot left that I can vote for even though it will be a pointless vote as they have no chance where I live. I am wondering whether to bother voting at all.
    I'd always suggest voting.

    I mean, this Leaver (me) is going to vote Liberal Democrat... in BOOTLE! I mean, if that isn't the definition of insanity, I don't know what is.

    But I'm still going to do it.
    I agree with that attitude.

    I have no intention of inflating the numbers of either Tory or Labour votes, regardless of whether they are the supposed only contenders.

  • macisback said:

    Brom said:

    woody662 said:

    Watching Jo Swinson this morning, I was reminded a lot of Veruca Salt from Charlie and the Chocolate Factory.

    She has a voice problem. It's a big issue and comes up time and time again. Not enough to put off Europhiles but perhaps enough for Lab/Lib and Con/Lib switchers with a mild interest in politics. Thatcher got elocution lessons, she should do the same IMO.
    I totally agree with that, Swinson will turn off voters before anyone listens to anything she has to say. Women leaders are a good idea if the have the required qualities, I think Swinson is a poor choice and will prove to be so very soon.
    What would those be? Blonde, blue eyes, big hair and a cleavage you can ski down? No doubt a miniskirt and 7" heels will figure in your fantasies....
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147
    edited November 2019

    London Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 39% (+4)
    CON: 29% (+6)
    LDM: 19% (-2)
    BXP: 6% (-4)
    GRN: 5% (-2)

    Via @YouGov, 30 Oct-4 Nov.
    Changes w/ 7-10 May.

    A picture seems to be emerging that the two mains parties are taking shares from the minor parties and the lib dem 'revoke' policy could be their 'poll tax'

    A completely unnecessary own goal. They should have campaigned for a second refererendum

    I doubt the LD Revoke policy is having any affect at all. My guess is that the fact there is a real election in the offing has concentrated quite a few anti-Tory minds and that a lot of anti-Tory voters are now beginning to look at who has the best chance of defeating the Tory in their constituency.

    Is that why the Tory poll is +6 and Labour just +4?
  • eristdoof said:

    Brom said:

    There are so many ways to look at polls but effectively every poll we have seen so far will lead to a Tory majority. Yet odds on a Tory majority are greater than evens. So the betting has already built in the concept that Labour will campaign well and will close the gap on the Conservatives.

    But does the betting take into account that the polling methods have changed since 2017 and that the polling is potentially more accurate now than it was 5 weeks prior to the 2017 election? If the 2017 Corbyn surge was as much down to bad polling samples/models than it was a great Labour campaign then surely the Tories are in a very, very good place right now for a majority with a 'believable' double figure lead.

    This is rubbish. The last time that polls were tested ,EP2019, the Tories were overstated by some margin by all the firms bar Ipsos MORI and YouGov.
    EP elections have nothing to do with General Elections as you yourself have wisely pointed out time and time again before now.

    Or did UKIP win in 2015? Did Michael Howard and William Hague win in 2005 and 2001 following their victories in the EP elections?
    You have either misunderstood Mike's comment or are deliberately misrepresenting it.

    He was not claiming that the result of the EPE2019 is a prediction for GE2019. He was pointing out that the last time opinion polls were tested on a national level was in EPE2019 not in GE2017. The opinion poll house adjustments different for the two types of election of course, but the assesment after the EPE at the very least is a good measure of how variable and biassed* the opinion polls are.

    (I'm using the word "biassed" in the statistical sense and not a political sense here)
    The last comparable time opinion polls were tested on a national level was in GE2017 and not EP2019. The opinion pollsters calibrate their polls almost consistently to GE turnout and not to EP turnout.

    Neither the voters nor the pollsters consider EP to be comparable to GE so why compare a GE poll to an EP poll?
  • On topic, and on the subject of Southport (and reposted from late last night), I've heard from my own constituency of Bootle, that the Bootle and Sefton Central Lib Dems are basically abandoning campaigning in these two seats to throw everything they have at Southport.

    All I've been told I'll get is the state paid for leaflet, and nowt else.

    I assume that's all I'll get off any of the parties in my seat.

    That’s telling.
    Well, no one but Labour will ever win Bootle...
    It’s not falling back to the Dunkirk perimeter but the LDs are already reining back their expectations.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,729
    DavidL said:

    Perth and North Perthshire has surely got to be the biggest target for the Tories in Scotland. In 2017 they came within 21 votes of taking it.

    Of course that may well prove to be a Ruth led peak and the Tories are not polling in Scotland what they were then but the SNP probably aren't either. With 5k Labour votes still to squeeze (by both parties in fairness) it may well be determined by whose vote drops the least.

    Later this month the indictment will be served on Alex Salmond. There will of course be reporting restrictions pending the trial but it is difficult not to see the SNP taking a modest hit from this and that is all that is required.

    SNP ramping up the IndyRef rhetoric may help them in Central Belt against SLAB but could backfire here.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Ominous signs that the Second Corbyn Surge has begun.
  • Nigelb said:

    Swinson: "Luciana didn't want to leave Labour she was driven"

    I see what she wants to say here, but is it wise to say some of your candidates are only here for negative reasons.

    Or you might be saying that you are offering a broad church party of the centre, which can accommodate both Conservative and Labour members who have been driven out by the lurch of their own parties away from the centre ground.
    Indeed. So say that. Keep saying it. There are millions of voters without a home now the two main parties have gone totally nuts.
    Indeed. Lib Dems are the only lot left that I can vote for even though it will be a pointless vote as they have no chance where I live. I am wondering whether to bother voting at all.
    I'd always suggest voting.

    I mean, this Leaver (me) is going to vote Liberal Democrat... in BOOTLE! I mean, if that isn't the definition of insanity, I don't know what is.

    But I'm still going to do it.

    Why would a Leaver in Bootle vote Lib Dem?
  • Byronic said:

    Ominous signs that the Second Corbyn Surge has begun.

    Sadly it is looking very much the case at the moment. Unlike last time their policies and pronouncements are just crazy.
  • Anorak said:

    macisback said:

    Women leaders are a good idea if...

    Hmmm.

    I do wish Jo Swinson would stop criticising those who don’t give her airtime as being anti-women and her fans criticise those who criticise her as having a problem with women.

    It’s lazy, silly and wholly counterproductive.
  • On topic, and on the subject of Southport (and reposted from late last night), I've heard from my own constituency of Bootle, that the Bootle and Sefton Central Lib Dems are basically abandoning campaigning in these two seats to throw everything they have at Southport.

    All I've been told I'll get is the state paid for leaflet, and nowt else.

    I assume that's all I'll get off any of the parties in my seat.

    That’s telling.
    Well, no one but Labour will ever win Bootle...
    It’s not falling back to the Dunkirk perimeter but the LDs are already reining back their expectations.
    I never expected them to form the next govt. I doubt that (privately) they expect it either :D
  • macisback said:

    Brom said:

    There are so many ways to look at polls but effectively every poll we have seen so far will lead to a Tory majority. Yet odds on a Tory majority are greater than evens. So the betting has already built in the concept that Labour will campaign well and will close the gap on the Conservatives.

    But does the betting take into account that the polling methods have changed since 2017 and that the polling is potentially more accurate now than it was 5 weeks prior to the 2017 election? If the 2017 Corbyn surge was as much down to bad polling samples/models than it was a great Labour campaign then surely the Tories are in a very, very good place right now for a majority with a 'believable' double figure lead.

    The bookies odds like finding money on the pavement good at present, here in the Midland's Labour look in a dire situation, they are not that confident of holding many seats at all but it is those early days of December that will count.
    You were saying?

    https://twitter.com/MrsNickyClark/status/1191641823263023104?s=20
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,585
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Swinson: "Luciana didn't want to leave Labour she was driven"

    I see what she wants to say here, but is it wise to say some of your candidates are only here for negative reasons.

    Or you might be saying that you are offering a broad church party of the centre, which can accommodate both Conservative and Labour members who have been driven out by the lurch of their own parties away from the centre ground.
    Indeed. So say that. Keep saying it. There are millions of voters without a home now the two main parties have gone totally nuts.
    Indeed. Lib Dems are the only lot left that I can vote for even though it will be a pointless vote as they have no chance where I live. I am wondering whether to bother voting at all.
    I'd always suggest voting.

    I mean, this Leaver (me) is going to vote Liberal Democrat... in BOOTLE! I mean, if that isn't the definition of insanity, I don't know what is.

    But I'm still going to do it.
    I agree with that attitude.

    I have no intention of inflating the numbers of either Tory or Labour votes, regardless of whether they are the supposed only contenders.

    Your vote is not just for this election. A vote for a no-hoper this time edges them towards an outside chance next time; a vote for an outside chance this time edges them towards a challenger next time.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    edited November 2019
    Nigelb said:

    camel said:

    The contours of Labour's campaign form themselves:

    https://twitter.com/CasparSalmon/status/1191680946795401216

    Do people buy this rubbish?

    Anything that is grown has insects fragments, rat shit and lots of slug slime. Washing helps. Cooking helps more. 3mg/454g seems pretty clean to me.

    Please do not wonder how much cow piss there is in milk.
    None. A cow's urethra is on the back of the cow. The udder is underneath. The urine lands a metre or two behind the cow.

    Besides, udders get cleaned before milking. As someone who has cleaned hundreds, if not thousands of udders, I speak from experience.
    I think camel might be hoping for a job with Trump's FDA ?
    I think he may have the qualifications required.... :D:D

    [Edit - I am still trying to get over that picture this morning of the exorcism in the Whitehouse and wondering why it did not work]
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147
    Byronic said:

    Ominous signs that the Second Corbyn Surge has begun.

    Where? Maybe against the LDs but not yet against the Tories.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    felix said:

    Byronic said:

    Ominous signs that the Second Corbyn Surge has begun.

    Where? Maybe against the LDs but not yet against the Tories.
    YouGov
  • Will The Apprentice be pulled? It was in 2010 because the Tories feared the sight of Lord Sugar's finger would drive Labour voters to the polls.

    Lord Sugar was politically active at the time, he's not anymore is he? In fact I think he has resigned from the Labour Party hasn't he?
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    Disturbing thought:

    GE2010, 2015, 2017 all had the Tory and Labour seat totals fluctuate within a narrow range: Con 306-330; Lab 232-262.

    What if neither main party manages to break this irritatingly indecisive electoral mould this time around as well?
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Barnesian said:

    Brom said:

    woody662 said:

    Watching Jo Swinson this morning, I was reminded a lot of Veruca Salt from Charlie and the Chocolate Factory.

    She has a voice problem. It's a big issue and comes up time and time again. Not enough to put off Europhiles but perhaps enough for Lab/Lib and Con/Lib switchers with a mild interest in politics. Thatcher got elocution lessons, she should do the same IMO.
    She's having voice coaching. It showed in the HOC where she spoke slowly and with a lower timbre and got attention and respect. It shows less well in interviews where she is not delivering a prepared speech and is having to think more of the content of her response that how she delivers it. I'm sure she'll continue to receive coaching. I believe her voice coach also coached Rees-Mogg's sister Annunciata.
    Interesting, thank you.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Byronic said:

    Ominous signs that the Second Corbyn Surge has begun.

    It's an uptick, will it become a surge though...
  • Byronic said:

    Ominous signs that the Second Corbyn Surge has begun.

    Sadly it is looking very much the case at the moment. Unlike last time their policies and pronouncements are just crazy.
    Pulpstar put it well yesterday.

    Many 3rd/4th/5th party “voters” flock back to Labour and the Conservatives at the first sign of electoral gunpowder.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    Byronic said:

    felix said:

    Byronic said:

    Ominous signs that the Second Corbyn Surge has begun.

    Where? Maybe against the LDs but not yet against the Tories.
    YouGov
    YouGov, who have the the Tory lead increasing from 12 to 13 points today? I've been a blue blue ever since the 2017 manifestos came out, but it's not panic time yet.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    AndyJS said:

    This is what an epic fail looks like:

    "A government plan to create 200,000 new homes in England for first-time buyers has resulted in no homes being built, the National Audit Office has found.
    Announced in 2014, "starter homes" were meant to be aimed at those under the age of 40 and sold at a 20% discount.
    But legislation to take the project forward was never passed.
    Labour called the policy a total failure, but the government said it had a "great track record" for house building.
    Former prime minister David Cameron committed to the scheme in the 2015 Conservative Party manifesto as a way of tackling the affordable housing crisis."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50296672

    Parliament didn’t pass the legislation so the government couldn’t execute on its plans
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:

    Ominous signs that the Second Corbyn Surge has begun.

    Sadly it is looking very much the case at the moment. Unlike last time their policies and pronouncements are just crazy.
    Pulpstar put it well yesterday.

    Many 3rd/4th/5th party “voters” flock back to Labour and the Conservatives at the first sign of electoral gunpowder.
    The main hope for Boris is that *any* chance of a Corbyn "victory" will drive 90% of BXP voters towards the Tories.

    If Boris gets those voters, and keeps his own, then he surely wins with a decent if unspectacular majority.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,349

    On topic, and on the subject of Southport (and reposted from late last night), I've heard from my own constituency of Bootle, that the Bootle and Sefton Central Lib Dems are basically abandoning campaigning in these two seats to throw everything they have at Southport.

    All I've been told I'll get is the state paid for leaflet, and nowt else.

    I assume that's all I'll get off any of the parties in my seat.

    That’s telling.
    Well, no one but Labour will ever win Bootle...
    It’s not falling back to the Dunkirk perimeter but the LDs are already reining back their expectations.
    I never expected them to form the next govt. I doubt that (privately) they expect it either :D
    I received a glossy leaflet that says publically they think differently..... Are you saying "Prime Minister" Swinson is being less than truthful with the voters?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    David Davis attacks the government in the HoC for not releasing the Russia report.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,873
    Labour's going to........ change the IHT threshold to ~ £125k apparently o_O !
  • Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Ominous signs that the Second Corbyn Surge has begun.

    Sadly it is looking very much the case at the moment. Unlike last time their policies and pronouncements are just crazy.
    Pulpstar put it well yesterday.

    Many 3rd/4th/5th party “voters” flock back to Labour and the Conservatives at the first sign of electoral gunpowder.
    The main hope for Boris is that *any* chance of a Corbyn "victory" will drive 90% of BXP voters towards the Tories.

    If Boris gets those voters, and keeps his own, then he surely wins with a decent if unspectacular majority.
    I’m not too worried about the BXP actually.
  • Will The Apprentice be pulled? It was in 2010 because the Tories feared the sight of Lord Sugar's finger would drive Labour voters to the polls.

    Lord Sugar was politically active at the time, he's not anymore is he? In fact I think he has resigned from the Labour Party hasn't he?
    Sugar left Labour, though Karren Brady is now a Conservative peer.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    blueblue said:

    Disturbing thought:

    GE2010, 2015, 2017 all had the Tory and Labour seat totals fluctuate within a narrow range: Con 306-330; Lab 232-262.

    What if neither main party manages to break this irritatingly indecisive electoral mould this time around as well?

    ICM also has the tory lead increasing yesterday, even though the labour share was up. People need to look at the whole poll
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    London Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 39% (+4)
    CON: 29% (+6)
    LDM: 19% (-2)
    BXP: 6% (-4)
    GRN: 5% (-2)

    Via @YouGov, 30 Oct-4 Nov.
    Changes w/ 7-10 May.

    Surely con and labour the wrong way round, here ?
    London
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Pulpstar said:

    Labour's going to........ change the IHT threshold to ~ £125k apparently o_O !

    The Tories should be all over that. Massive vote loser if weaponised properly. Half the country lives in houses potentially worth more than £125k
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Anorak said:

    macisback said:

    Women leaders are a good idea if...

    Hmmm.
    I do wish Jo Swinson would stop criticising those who don’t give her airtime as being anti-women and her fans criticise those who criticise her as having a problem with women.

    It’s lazy, silly and wholly counterproductive.
    My response had nothing to do with Jo Swinson.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Labour share in London:

    1983 general election: 30%
    2017, latest opinion poll: 39%

    Not a great improvement considering the way London's changed since then.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    Same point in GE 2017

    London only YG 10.5.17

    LAB 41
    CON 36
    LD 14
    UKIP 6
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    AndyJS said:

    Labour share in London:

    1983 general election: 30%
    2017, latest opinion poll: 39%

    Not a great improvement considering the way London's changed since then.

    That IHT proposal could knock 5% off the Labour London vote.

    Tories need to find a clever name to frame this tax (like Dementia Tax)

    I suggest GRIEF TAX or WIDOW TAX
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,873

    Nigelb said:

    Swinson: "Luciana didn't want to leave Labour she was driven"

    I see what she wants to say here, but is it wise to say some of your candidates are only here for negative reasons.

    Or you might be saying that you are offering a broad church party of the centre, which can accommodate both Conservative and Labour members who have been driven out by the lurch of their own parties away from the centre ground.
    Indeed. So say that. Keep saying it. There are millions of voters without a home now the two main parties have gone totally nuts.
    Indeed. Lib Dems are the only lot left that I can vote for even though it will be a pointless vote as they have no chance where I live. I am wondering whether to bother voting at all.
    I'd always suggest voting.

    I mean, this Leaver (me) is going to vote Liberal Democrat... in BOOTLE! I mean, if that isn't the definition of insanity, I don't know what is.

    But I'm still going to do it.

    Why would a Leaver in Bootle vote Lib Dem?
    1. I always vote. Very important.
    2. Although I DO believe the UK should leave the EU, I would've preferred an EEA style arrangement (at least for five years or so - nothing is forever). However, I would've accepted Johnson's deal except:
    3. The Conservatives are led by a lying sack of sh*t who couldn't tell the truth if his life depend on it. Further the front bench are a collection of hard right loons (Patel, Raab) or yes men (Javid) who I detest almost as much as Labour.
    4. The Labour party jumped off the deep end four years ago, and haven't been seen since. I'm not voting for a hard left, antisemetic bunch of ars*h*les whose idea to everything is nationalise it.
    5. I've some sympathies with the Greens, but nawh.
    6. On almost every other policy, I'm with the Liberal Democrats, and have voted for them most of my life.
    7. I personally know the Sefton candidate and also a few of the other local Bootle members of the LDs, all of whom are nice people.
    8. So for me, its a case of 'hold my nose regarding their Brexit policy' and vote for them anyway. After all, as we've always said, this is a General Election, NOT a second referendum. I won't agree with them for everything but its close enough.

    Plus, of course, they won't win in Bootle, so its a free hit here.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    Pulpstar said:

    Labour's going to........ change the IHT threshold to ~ £125k apparently o_O !

    Labour's Death Tax! Let's see prosperous southern voters risk getting hit with that if they desert the Tories.

    First Tory win of the non-campaign! :smiley:
  • On topic, and on the subject of Southport (and reposted from late last night), I've heard from my own constituency of Bootle, that the Bootle and Sefton Central Lib Dems are basically abandoning campaigning in these two seats to throw everything they have at Southport.

    All I've been told I'll get is the state paid for leaflet, and nowt else.

    I assume that's all I'll get off any of the parties in my seat.

    That’s telling.
    Well, no one but Labour will ever win Bootle...
    It’s not falling back to the Dunkirk perimeter but the LDs are already reining back their expectations.
    I never expected them to form the next govt. I doubt that (privately) they expect it either :D
    I received a glossy leaflet that says publically they think differently..... Are you saying "Prime Minister" Swinson is being less than truthful with the voters?
    She is a politician. Nowadays, more than ever, they seem to lie without conscience. Boris is, IMO, a stunning example of the breed.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Labour's going to........ change the IHT threshold to ~ £125k apparently o_O !

    Thus hitting the homeowners of every average home in the country.

    POPULAR.
  • Byronic said:

    AndyJS said:

    Labour share in London:

    1983 general election: 30%
    2017, latest opinion poll: 39%

    Not a great improvement considering the way London's changed since then.

    That IHT proposal could knock 5% off the Labour London vote.

    Tories need to find a clever name to frame this tax (like Dementia Tax)

    I suggest GRIEF TAX or WIDOW TAX
    They do. Rule one of British politics: never, ever touch or go after people’s homes and gardens.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    Byronic said:

    Ominous signs that the Second Corbyn Surge has begun.

    Sadly it is looking very much the case at the moment. Unlike last time their policies and pronouncements are just crazy.
    Being given cover by the Tories’ own craziness and irresponsibility
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    Byronic said:

    AndyJS said:

    Labour share in London:

    1983 general election: 30%
    2017, latest opinion poll: 39%

    Not a great improvement considering the way London's changed since then.

    That IHT proposal could knock 5% off the Labour London vote.

    Tories need to find a clever name to frame this tax (like Dementia Tax)

    I suggest GRIEF TAX or WIDOW TAX
    DEATH TAX DEATH TAX DEATH TAX

    It always works for the US Republicans!
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,147
    Byronic said:

    felix said:

    Byronic said:

    Ominous signs that the Second Corbyn Surge has begun.

    Where? Maybe against the LDs but not yet against the Tories.
    YouGov
    The figures do not say that at all.
  • Anorak said:

    Anorak said:

    macisback said:

    Women leaders are a good idea if...

    Hmmm.
    I do wish Jo Swinson would stop criticising those who don’t give her airtime as being anti-women and her fans criticise those who criticise her as having a problem with women.

    It’s lazy, silly and wholly counterproductive.
    My response had nothing to do with Jo Swinson.
    I wasn’t referring to yourself.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    Pulpstar said:

    Labour's going to........ change the IHT threshold to ~ £125k apparently o_O !

    Labour won't be THAT stupid.
  • Byronic said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Labour's going to........ change the IHT threshold to ~ £125k apparently o_O !

    The Tories should be all over that. Massive vote loser if weaponised properly. Half the country lives in houses potentially worth more than £125k
    How many of those vote Labour and live in seats Labour can win. Not many.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,873
    edited November 2019

    Pulpstar said:

    Labour's going to........ change the IHT threshold to ~ £125k apparently o_O !

    Thus hitting the homeowners of every average home in the country.

    POPULAR.
    It's a "ifetime gift allowance" pparently. Blimey.
  • Byronic said:

    AndyJS said:

    Labour share in London:

    1983 general election: 30%
    2017, latest opinion poll: 39%

    Not a great improvement considering the way London's changed since then.

    That IHT proposal could knock 5% off the Labour London vote.

    Tories need to find a clever name to frame this tax (like Dementia Tax)

    I suggest GRIEF TAX or WIDOW TAX
    Death tax is the usual formulation. £125k does seem an odd figure, especially as so many of JC's inner circle are London-based. Is it confirmed or just a recycling of old stories?
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    blueblue said:

    Byronic said:

    AndyJS said:

    Labour share in London:

    1983 general election: 30%
    2017, latest opinion poll: 39%

    Not a great improvement considering the way London's changed since then.

    That IHT proposal could knock 5% off the Labour London vote.

    Tories need to find a clever name to frame this tax (like Dementia Tax)

    I suggest GRIEF TAX or WIDOW TAX
    DEATH TAX DEATH TAX DEATH TAX

    It always works for the US Republicans!
    GRIEF TAX is maybe better

    More anguishing.

  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    CORPSE TAX
  • Byronic said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Labour's going to........ change the IHT threshold to ~ £125k apparently o_O !

    The Tories should be all over that. Massive vote loser if weaponised properly. Half the country lives in houses potentially worth more than £125k

    Average UK property price in Aug 2019 was £235k:

    http://landregistry.data.gov.uk/app/ukhpi

    So even if that allowance was transferable between married couples it would still (just about) hit the estate of virtually anyone with an average house.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    edited November 2019

    Byronic said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Labour's going to........ change the IHT threshold to ~ £125k apparently o_O !

    The Tories should be all over that. Massive vote loser if weaponised properly. Half the country lives in houses potentially worth more than £125k
    How many of those vote Labour and live in seats Labour can win. Not many.
    "Vote Lib Dem, Corbyn Takes Your House" :wink:
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Labour's going to........ change the IHT threshold to ~ £125k apparently o_O !

    The Tories should be all over that. Massive vote loser if weaponised properly. Half the country lives in houses potentially worth more than £125k
    How many of those vote Labour and live in seats Labour can win. Not many.
    Well, just about all of London, and a fair chunk of Manchester, I'd say.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    blueblue said:

    Byronic said:

    AndyJS said:

    Labour share in London:

    1983 general election: 30%
    2017, latest opinion poll: 39%

    Not a great improvement considering the way London's changed since then.

    That IHT proposal could knock 5% off the Labour London vote.

    Tories need to find a clever name to frame this tax (like Dementia Tax)

    I suggest GRIEF TAX or WIDOW TAX
    DEATH TAX DEATH TAX DEATH TAX

    It always works for the US Republicans!
    "Family home confiscation" is the term I would use. Many will have to sell their parents home to pay the tax rather than have it continue in the family.
  • blueblue said:

    Disturbing thought:

    GE2010, 2015, 2017 all had the Tory and Labour seat totals fluctuate within a narrow range: Con 306-330; Lab 232-262.

    What if neither main party manages to break this irritatingly indecisive electoral mould this time around as well?

    Look on the bright side. If Swinson runs a good campaign they could both breach the lower limits of those ranges.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Labour's going to........ change the IHT threshold to ~ £125k apparently o_O !

    Thus hitting the homeowners of every average home in the country.

    POPULAR.
    It's a "ifetime gift allowance" pparently. Blimey.
    It might not get enough traction / publicity to fully resonate immediately but it risks being unpopular with younger voters in the south/south-east too who are relying on the bank of mum & dad.
  • Nigelb said:

    Swinson: "Luciana didn't want to leave Labour she was driven"

    I see what she wants to say here, but is it wise to say some of your candidates are only here for negative reasons.

    Or you might be saying that you are offering a broad church party of the centre, which can accommodate both Conservative and Labour members who have been driven out by the lurch of their own parties away from the centre ground.
    Indeed. So say that. Keep saying it. There are millions of voters without a home now the two main parties have gone totally nuts.
    Indeed. Lib Dems are the only lot left that I can vote for even though it will be a pointless vote as they have no chance where I live. I am wondering whether to bother voting at all.
    I'd always suggest voting.

    I mean, this Leaver (me) is going to vote Liberal Democrat... in BOOTLE! I mean, if that isn't the definition of insanity, I don't know what is.

    But I'm still going to do it.

    Why would a Leaver in Bootle vote Lib Dem?
    1. I always vote. Very important.
    2. Although I DO believe the UK should leave the EU, I would've preferred an EEA style arrangement (at least for five years or so - nothing is forever). However, I would've accepted Johnson's deal except:
    3. The Conservatives are led by a lying sack of sh*t who couldn't tell the truth if his life depend on it. Further the front bench are a collection of hard right loons (Patel, Raab) or yes men (Javid) who I detest almost as much as Labour.
    4. The Labour party jumped off the deep end four years ago, and haven't been seen since. I'm not voting for a hard left, antisemetic bunch of ars*h*les whose idea to everything is nationalise it.
    5. I've some sympathies with the Greens, but nawh.
    6. On almost every other policy, I'm with the Liberal Democrats, and have voted for them most of my life.
    7. I personally know the Sefton candidate and also a few of the other local Bootle members of the LDs, all of whom are nice people.
    8. So for me, its a case of 'hold my nose regarding their Brexit policy' and vote for them anyway. After all, as we've always said, this is a General Election, NOT a second referendum. I won't agree with them for everything but its close enough.

    Plus, of course, they won't win in Bootle, so its a free hit here.
    Thank you for your reply. Possibly the best post on PB this morning :+1:
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,873

    On topic, and on the subject of Southport (and reposted from late last night), I've heard from my own constituency of Bootle, that the Bootle and Sefton Central Lib Dems are basically abandoning campaigning in these two seats to throw everything they have at Southport.

    All I've been told I'll get is the state paid for leaflet, and nowt else.

    I assume that's all I'll get off any of the parties in my seat.

    That’s telling.
    Well, no one but Labour will ever win Bootle...
    It’s not falling back to the Dunkirk perimeter but the LDs are already reining back their expectations.
    I never expected them to form the next govt. I doubt that (privately) they expect it either :D
    I think they've publically said it too. Both Ed Davey and Layla Moran have said the chances of a Lib Dem majority government are vanishingly small.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    Pulpstar said:

    Labour's going to........ change the IHT threshold to ~ £125k apparently o_O !

    ! Bye bye Midlands.....and the north
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