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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Conservatives’ election chances. Ten Seats To Watch
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Conservatives’ election chances. Ten Seats To Watch
And they’re off. The Conservatives have raced into an early lead in the polls and will be looking to secure an overall majority. Will they do it? Here are ten seats that will be illustrative of how they will do.
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Naturally the Union & Brexit will be factors in East Ren, but in 2017 the SLab candidate (ex head of Better Together, anti Jezza and centrist Unionist SLab to the core) got humped. It'll be an interesting bellwether for the two competing priorities.
It was more his 1950s habit of deference to authority.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1191653511534194690
I note that the only one of the above likely to report fairly early on is Wrexham... the two Scottish constituencies maybe an hour or so later, and most of the rest around 4am.
It will be a good test of the extent to which the Brexit Party will take votes that might deprive the Conservatives of seats.
Edit: The BestForBritain MRP has the Brexit Party on nearly 25% of the vote in this seat, but Labour/Tory still very close.
I think conservative progress there will be rolled back by the BXP if they stand and campaign hard. Add in Flint's brexity charm and name recognition and she's surely home and dry with an increased majority, UNS notwithstanding.
If the Tories don't take Wrexham, they have not got a majority. If they take all 4 of these seats, they have a largish majority.
(Incidentally, the seat is quite like Workington, in the sense that the principal largely Labour town after which the constituency is named is surrounded by a rural or semi-rural hinterland. The nature of the constituency has changed through boundary conditions over the years, which have made it more & more favourable for the Tories).
“Maxwellisation” is not relevant here. The report is in final form ready to be published. The only reason it is coming up as an issue during an election period is because of the delay imposed by No 10. Had normal process been followed, it would have been published already while Parliament was sitting.
No 10 is delaying for no good reason and then using the delay they have imposed to justify not publishing because there’s an election. It is a pretty transparent abuse of process.
The integrity of our electoral process is critical. A report on possible interference by foreign hostile states into that process is important and should be made transparent, especially before an election.
Incidentally, I don’t expect the report to point fingers at particular individuals or to allege loads of crimes. Rather, I would expect it to look at the sorts of techniques which non-British actors use, the weaknesses in our systems, the “red flags” to look out for, what steps could be taken to strengthen our systems etc. So more boring than a “Gotcha!” report but very important nonetheless.
The Inquiry itself said exactly the same thing as far as the first point is concerned. Many of the victims would have survived if they had ignored the official advise.
And yes to my mind common sense means I would hope I would ignore the official advise and trust my own instincts.
This was exactly the same as with Piper Alpha where those who broke the rules had a chance at survival and all those who followed the rules died waiting in an accommodation block for rescue that was never going to come.
We are now taught this as part of our survival courses every 4 years. Although it is only semi official as telling people to ignore the rules is frowned upon.
What has happened to Unity Rees-Mogg ?
There is no shortage of Rees-Moggs for the future. We are going to be overrun with them.
Cheltenham - Lib dem GAIN
Southport - Con Hold, Lib dems second
Cities of Westminster Con Hold, Lab second
East Ren- Con Hold
Norwich North- Con Hold
Kensington-really tough but I think Labour Hold
Ipswich- Labour Hold
Lanark and Hamilton East- SNP Hold, Tories second
Wrexham-Con Gain
Don Valley- Lab Hold.
The BBC documentary “Border Country” is also worth watching.
In any other context, Rees Mogg would probably deprecate any suggestion that official rules be ignored. (And there is no provision of survival courses for flat dwellers, I think.)
I don't think this ought to be much of a political attack line, as even Rees Mogg is entitled to the benefit gof the doubt once in a while, but it is surely fair to point out that inconsistency ?
What BXP assumption do you have AAMOI?
Looks like the Cult are being shown how to vote in January.
You might think they're sensible, but they are easily weaponised by opponents and play straight into the 'clueless Eton elites' theme, and are thus a political fuck-up of the first order.
No more than Chuka's seat warmer.
The comments might have an arguable logic about them, but to call them sensible (in both senses of the word) is a stretch.
I was quite enjoying it until I got to the Levenson chapter. My problem then was that I actually knew a fair bit about the topic and one or two of the characters involved (Brooks, Wade and Coulson.) The extent to which he was glossing over things was plain, and it made me rather more sceptical about the rest of the book.
https://twitter.com/nowthisnews/status/1191495086581792768?s=21
https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1191669721260838912
Doesn't work for me.
Is this some new religion he’s just invented?
I actually put a tenner on the Tories in Lanark & Hamilton East at the weekend.
Cheltenham C/LD 35/65 (probability of winning)
London and Westminster C/L/LD 80/10/10
Southport C/LD 50/50
Norwich N C/L/LD 90/10/0
Kensington C/L/LD 60/20/20
Ipswich C/L 80/20
Don Valley C/L 50/50
I see what she wants to say here, but is it wise to say some of your candidates are only here for negative reasons.
In an earlier age she would be burnt for heresy.
It will be interesting to see where Corbyn campaigns as I suspect a lot of candidates will not want him anywhere near their seat as they campaign on a yes I'm the Labour candidate but I'm not a Corbynite platform.
He is lucky this story has little exposure and will probably only be seen by a small minority of the public thanks to his swift apology.
Best of luck, Jo...
People who broke the rules in both cases survived.