I don't view Swinson as a player but then it's a low bar across the field at the moment. I can't think of anything positive to say about her except she's a woman (not to be misinterpreted). I think this GE is all about leaders - the teams look even more useless than they do.
I can only see the current LD vote going backwards as the voters return to tribal loyalties as usual.
If you look at the LD website (And I have, so you don’t have to) there really isn’t anything on there to tempt a right of centre voter.
They’re playing *solely* off the Revoke wicket to win any floaters. It’s People’s Vote online. Which makes me think they may put on an extra couple of dozen MPs where that sort of message really really resonates, but not much more than that.
Conversely, Boris needs to show a little big of leg on economic liberalism and fiscal conservatism and he should keep most in his tent.
You couldn't make it up really. Two tactical voting websites: one recommends voting LD in Kensington to keep the Tories out which has a Labour MP, and another one that recommends voting Labour in South Cambridgeshire which is a top target for the LDs.
Three of the South West London seats, Battersea, Putney and Kensington are now tight 3 way marginals and could go in any direction.At the moment it looks as if the Tories may hold Putney and gain Kensington with Battersea too close to call but a few percentage points ether way could change all this.
And Wimbledon looks very interesting. Hammond has become a bit of a joke in the local media with his flip flopping and the LDs have a fairly high profile candidate (albeit for unusual reasons).
Yes but again which way do the Remainer voters go? Labour are clear second and held this seat twice in the Blair years so most likely scenario is Hammond holds on despite losing him and Labour both losing votes to the LDs.
The only way to stop Brexit is by voting LD. That'll be a powerful message.
I don't think Labour will be talking about Brexit any more than they absolutely have to.
"How ironic if the Farage show ended up destroying Brexit altogether"
I would die laughing I suspect.
If Farage costs the Tories the majority it needs to implement Brexit, remainers should go full revoke. It'd be the second time Brexiteers have blocked Brexit and I don't see why everyone else should have to put up with it.
As a leaver I would support revoke if this comes to pass.
I don't view Swinson as a player but then it's a low bar across the field at the moment. I can't think of anything positive to say about her except she's a woman (not to be misinterpreted). I think this GE is all about leaders - the teams look even more useless than they do.
I can only see the current LD vote going backwards as the voters return to tribal loyalties as usual.
If you look at the LD website (And I have, so you don’t have to) there really isn’t anything on there to tempt a right of centre voter.
They’re playing *solely* off the Revoke wicket to win any floaters. It’s People’s Vote online. Which makes me think they may put on an extra couple of dozen MPs where that sort of message really really resonates, but not much more than that.
Conversely, Boris needs to show a little big of leg on economic liberalism and fiscal conservatism and he should keep most in his tent.
Except you are not entirely objective.
I’m almost entirely objective.
You can’t just reply to anyone who you think is pouring a little bit of water on the hopes of the LDs by saying ‘you’re not objective’.
I’ve already placed bets on a LD overall majority and LD most seats, at good odds, recognising the chance that this election could be unpredictable in all sorts of directions. And I am open to convincing whenever something thinks I’ve got it wrong too. I’m not tubthumping for Boris in this and I mainly want to make money. I merely outlined my view of how some centre-right soft Tories may view the LD offering.
You are way too emotionally invested in the LDs due to your own long-standing personal involvement and (rightly held) pride in your family history in it going back over 100 years.
It really does colour your betting objectivity and makes you far too tempted to use your platform to promote their chances instead.
I put anything you say on the LDs through a very heavy filter.
Yes, I am, but it requires them to be motivated by Remain above everything else.
Much of the LD offering on climate change, public services, refugees and identity politics is simply business as usual.
Not all homeless Conservatives will be tempted by that.
Or perhaps they are simply not excited (or worse) by the Tories at present, looking for a protest vote and the obvious place to go is LD. Especially with it safe to do so as Corbyn so poor there is almost no chance of a Labour majority (and zero chance a Corbynite majority). Not all votes are based on positives.
I am not saying the LDs have the right manifesto, I would like to see a centrist but very radical and reforming manifesto.
Yes, it’s possible. The trouble is this is about choosing a Government, not a protest vote.
Maybe Jo Swinson will surprise us and go all statesman/lady in the next few weeks, with some well-judged centrist manifesto surprises.
But, I haven’t see it yet. Just Revoke turned up to 11.
Punters are judging Farage's strategy has reduced the chance of a majority Tory government.
Over-reaction from febrile punters. Tories still have a double-digit lead.
Indeed, however it does confirm that they need to maintain such a lead. Their buffer has reduced with Farage's action.
Very promising for Remain, very much keeps the pressure on Boris not to dip and means he has to focus on attacking Farage as much as Labour. Farage truly is a great asset to the remain cause, after his initial victory over them.
I am not sure.
Boris will make the case that a vote for anyone else may see Corbyn in No 10. The fear of Corbyn will trump (sorry) everything else is many voters minds, including brexit
So Boris will hope. But I think Farage has just sunk Brexit, and many people will be very grateful for that. By demanding Boris abandon his own deal he knew full well no pact would be possible, so its only purpose was to posture, and he knows what impact that might have.
The site seems very focussed on southern seats today. I hope everyone has had a bite of the Tories in Bishop Auckland, looks a simple enough gain and 5-6 is too big for them there.
Which unlucky seat is going to have Daniel Hannan foisted upon it?
You really don’t like him, do you?
I'm sure he has some redeeming qualities but he keeps them very well-hidden.
I knew him personally for some years, went campaigning with him, had curries with him and even gave him a lift in my car on more than one occasion. I found him friendly, funny reasonable and intelligent. And an inspiring speaker.
I lost respect for him after the referendum when he switched to carping from the sidelines, and criticising rather than doing, whilst not having the integrity to stand behind what he said in the past.
I haven’t spoken to him since the referendum.
A lot of Leavers said they were in favour of EFTA/EEA as they saw it as the best way of convincing soft Remainers.
When Brexit was voted for, they suddenly discovered they actually wanted a different relationship with the EU.
As an EFTA/EEA type myself, it's been really rather depressing. There's a lot of people on the Leave side I've lost a lot of respect for.
Punters are judging Farage's strategy has reduced the chance of a majority Tory government.
Over-reaction from febrile punters. Tories still have a double-digit lead.
Indeed, however it does confirm that they need to maintain such a lead. Their buffer has reduced with Farage's action.
Very promising for Remain, very much keeps the pressure on Boris not to dip and means he has to focus on attacking Farage as much as Labour. Farage truly is a great asset to the remain cause, after his initial victory over them.
I am not sure.
Boris will make the case that a vote for anyone else may see Corbyn in No 10. The fear of Corbyn will trump (sorry) everything else is many voters minds, including brexit
So Boris will hope. But I think Farage has just sunk Brexit, and many people will be very grateful for that.
Farage could have sank Brexit in 2015 by leading to Miliband being PM and thus no referendum.
Tories can beat Farage they don't need him on their side.
You couldn't make it up really. Two tactical voting websites: one recommends voting LD in Kensington to keep the Tories out which has a Labour MP, and another one that recommends voting Labour in South Cambridgeshire which is a top target for the LDs.
Three of the South West London seats, Battersea, Putney and Kensington are now tight 3 way marginals and could go in any direction.At the moment it looks as if the Tories may hold Putney and gain Kensington with Battersea too close to call but a few percentage points ether way could change all this.
The LDs will be distant third place candidates in all three.
I think that's a dangerous game for the Conservatives, that won't lead to Labour losing Hartlepool, but might result in them losing votes in Remainia.
Indeed - it would be absolutely fatal for Con to do any deal with BXP.
If Con are seen as being in a "team" with BXP they lose a chunk of votes immediately.
Simply not worth it - because BXP will take some votes from Lab as well.
Whilst BXP will take more votes from Con, the differential will be less than the votes Con lose if there's a deal. And it's even worse than that - in that scenario, Con votes lost count double if they go to the challenger in a seat.
Yes, I am, but it requires them to be motivated by Remain above everything else.
Much of the LD offering on climate change, public services, refugees and identity politics is simply business as usual.
Not all homeless Conservatives will be tempted by that.
Or perhaps they are simply not excited (or worse) by the Tories at present, looking for a protest vote and the obvious place to go is LD. Especially with it safe to do so as Corbyn so poor there is almost no chance of a Labour majority (and zero chance a Corbynite majority). Not all votes are based on positives.
I am not saying the LDs have the right manifesto, I would like to see a centrist but very radical and reforming manifesto.
Yes, it’s possible. The trouble is this is about choosing a Government, not a protest vote.
Maybe Jo Swinson will surprise us and go all statesman/lady in the next few weeks, with some well-judged centrist manifesto surprises.
But, I haven’t see it yet. Just Revoke turned up to 11.
Over half the country dont like either main leader, they cant vote positively to choose a government. Many of those dont like the LDs/Greens or regional nats either. Their options are:
- vote the way they always do because nothing obviously better - vote remain/leave - protest vote - dont vote
The LDs do badly on the first of those options but fine on second and third.
Punters are judging Farage's strategy has reduced the chance of a majority Tory government.
Over-reaction from febrile punters. Tories still have a double-digit lead.
Indeed, however it does confirm that they need to maintain such a lead. Their buffer has reduced with Farage's action.
Very promising for Remain, very much keeps the pressure on Boris not to dip and means he has to focus on attacking Farage as much as Labour. Farage truly is a great asset to the remain cause, after his initial victory over them.
I am not sure.
Boris will make the case that a vote for anyone else may see Corbyn in No 10. The fear of Corbyn will trump (sorry) everything else is many voters minds, including brexit
So Boris will hope. But I think Farage has just sunk Brexit, and many people will be very grateful for that.
Farage could have sank Brexit in 2015 by leading to Miliband being PM and thus no referendum.
Tories can beat Farage they don't need him on their side.
They can, I just don't think they will. It means they absolutely must not drift back in the campaign, and are reliant on Corbyn not pulling of a great recovery campaign like last time.
Now, people might say both of those are likely, though personally I disagree. But now the Tories need it, whereas if Farage was not so obstinate it would just help.
Punters are judging Farage's strategy has reduced the chance of a majority Tory government.
Over-reaction from febrile punters. Tories still have a double-digit lead.
Indeed, however it does confirm that they need to maintain such a lead. Their buffer has reduced with Farage's action.
Very promising for Remain, very much keeps the pressure on Boris not to dip and means he has to focus on attacking Farage as much as Labour. Farage truly is a great asset to the remain cause, after his initial victory over them.
I am not sure.
Boris will make the case that a vote for anyone else may see Corbyn in No 10. The fear of Corbyn will trump (sorry) everything else is many voters minds, including brexit
So Boris will hope. But I think Farage has just sunk Brexit, and many people will be very grateful for that.
Farage could have sank Brexit in 2015 by leading to Miliband being PM and thus no referendum.
Tories can beat Farage they don't need him on their side.
They can, I just don't think they will. It means they absolutely must not drift back in the campaign, and are reliant on Corbyn not pulling of a great recovery campaign like last time.
Now, people might say both of those are likely, though personally I disagree. But now the Tories need it, whereas if Farage was not so obstinate it would just help.
As I said at the start, there's going to be a last minute mass switch - from Brexit to Tory.
There'll be lots of Leavers walking to the polling station thinking "Do I REALLY want to risk sinking Brexit? For what?"
Punters are judging Farage's strategy has reduced the chance of a majority Tory government.
Over-reaction from febrile punters. Tories still have a double-digit lead.
Indeed, however it does confirm that they need to maintain such a lead. Their buffer has reduced with Farage's action.
Very promising for Remain, very much keeps the pressure on Boris not to dip and means he has to focus on attacking Farage as much as Labour. Farage truly is a great asset to the remain cause, after his initial victory over them.
I am not sure.
Boris will make the case that a vote for anyone else may see Corbyn in No 10. The fear of Corbyn will trump (sorry) everything else is many voters minds, including brexit
So Boris will hope. But I think Farage has just sunk Brexit, and many people will be very grateful for that. By demanding Boris abandon his own deal he knew full well no pact would be possible, so its only purpose was to posture, and he knows what impact that might have.
I think, maybe, you are expressing your own hopes there.
So long as Corbyn leads labour Boris has a good chance of a win and hence Brexit on the 31st January
Also fierce attack on Farage from Baker and Francois speaking for the spartans
Not sure the Lib Dems are going to do aswell as some in the media suggest .
I see their vote getting squeezed and I put them at around 10% to 12% come Election Day .
In 2017, they started at about 11-12%, and ended up at 7%.
This time, they've started at 18-19%, and have probably lost a few points already.
It is quite possible that this year is simply a 2017 rerun, and the LDs end up where you say. In which case they'll probably lose North Norfolk and maybe one or two other seats, while gaining Richmond Park, Sheffield Hallam and Ceridigion. It'll be a wash (or maybe up one or two seats), and Ms Swinson will probably be stepping down.
Alternatively, @Byronic is right and she'll play pretty well in deepest Remainia. In which case the LDs will poll 15-18%, and probable end up in the low 20s in terms of number of seats.
Finally, there's always the possibility the LDs will find a message that resonates, and they may end up breaking the 20% barrier, and perhaps running Labour close. (Or even, and yes this is low probability, but it's still possible, beating Labour into second in terms of number of votes.) In which case, there could be a lot of seats that fall to the Yellow Peril... or a lot of good second place results.
My feel, and it's just a feel, is that:
1. Swinson is better than Farron, and the shine has come of Corbyn 2. The LDs are much, much better organised than in 2017 3. There is 15-25% chunk of the electorate who are Remainiacs, and the LDs will benefit
So, I'd reckon the middle scenario is the most likely. But I wouldn't discount either of the other two. My "condidence interval" for the LDs (i.e. the range I'd expect them to fall in 80% of the time) is incredibly wide - perhaps 10 to 40 seats.
Punters are judging Farage's strategy has reduced the chance of a majority Tory government.
Over-reaction from febrile punters. Tories still have a double-digit lead.
Indeed, however it does confirm that they need to maintain such a lead. Their buffer has reduced with Farage's action.
Very promising for Remain, very much keeps the pressure on Boris not to dip and means he has to focus on attacking Farage as much as Labour. Farage truly is a great asset to the remain cause, after his initial victory over them.
I am not sure.
Boris will make the case that a vote for anyone else may see Corbyn in No 10. The fear of Corbyn will trump (sorry) everything else is many voters minds, including brexit
So Boris will hope. But I think Farage has just sunk Brexit, and many people will be very grateful for that. By demanding Boris abandon his own deal he knew full well no pact would be possible, so its only purpose was to posture, and he knows what impact that might have.
I think, maybe, you are expressing your own hopes there.
So long as Corbyn leads labour Boris has a good chance of a win and hence Brexit on the 31st January
Also fierce attack on Farage from Baker and Francois speaking for the spartans
Obviously my own preferences colour my perceptions, that's true of all of us. I've been pretty clear that Boris can still win even with BXP standing everywhere. But it is definitely harder, and small percentages in the wrong place could make the difference. At the very least it means Boris has to focus time and energy to refuting Farage's attacks on his Brexit deal, when without that it would have been much easier to portray anyone who didn;t like it as a remoaner.
Punters are judging Farage's strategy has reduced the chance of a majority Tory government.
Over-reaction from febrile punters. Tories still have a double-digit lead.
Indeed, however it does confirm that they need to maintain such a lead. Their buffer has reduced with Farage's action.
Very promising for Remain, very much keeps the pressure on Boris not to dip and means he has to focus on attacking Farage as much as Labour. Farage truly is a great asset to the remain cause, after his initial victory over them.
I am not sure.
Boris will make the case that a vote for anyone else may see Corbyn in No 10. The fear of Corbyn will trump (sorry) everything else is many voters minds, including brexit
So Boris will hope. But I think Farage has just sunk Brexit, and many people will be very grateful for that.
Farage could have sank Brexit in 2015 by leading to Miliband being PM and thus no referendum.
Tories can beat Farage they don't need him on their side.
They can, I just don't think they will. It means they absolutely must not drift back in the campaign, and are reliant on Corbyn not pulling of a great recovery campaign like last time.
Now, people might say both of those are likely, though personally I disagree. But now the Tories need it, whereas if Farage was not so obstinate it would just help.
As I said at the start, there's going to be a last minute mass switch - from Brexit to Tory.
There'll be lots of Leavers walking to the polling station thinking "Do I REALLY want to risk sinking Brexit? For what?"
Punters are judging Farage's strategy has reduced the chance of a majority Tory government.
Over-reaction from febrile punters. Tories still have a double-digit lead.
Indeed, however it does confirm that they need to maintain such a lead. Their buffer has reduced with Farage's action.
Very promising for Remain, very much keeps the pressure on Boris not to dip and means he has to focus on attacking Farage as much as Labour. Farage truly is a great asset to the remain cause, after his initial victory over them.
I am not sure.
Boris will make the case that a vote for anyone else may see Corbyn in No 10. The fear of Corbyn will trump (sorry) everything else is many voters minds, including brexit
So Boris will hope. But I think Farage has just sunk Brexit, and many people will be very grateful for that.
Farage could have sank Brexit in 2015 by leading to Miliband being PM and thus no referendum.
Tories can beat Farage they don't need him on their side.
They can, I just don't think they will. It means they absolutely must not drift back in the campaign, and are reliant on Corbyn not pulling of a great recovery campaign like last time.
Now, people might say both of those are likely, though personally I disagree. But now the Tories need it, whereas if Farage was not so obstinate it would just help.
As I said at the start, there's going to be a last minute mass switch - from Brexit to Tory.
There'll be lots of Leavers walking to the polling station thinking "Do I REALLY want to risk sinking Brexit? For what?"
A marxist government that really would destroy our standard of living.
Tuesday evening is a good slot. Better than the recent spate of Mondays, or Sundays which were even worse. They also seem to avoided the usual pisspoor scheduling whereby the debate takes place when the England football team have a key match, or some such.
Punters are judging Farage's strategy has reduced the chance of a majority Tory government.
Over-reaction from febrile punters. Tories still have a double-digit lead.
Indeed, however it does confirm that they need to maintain such a lead. Their buffer has reduced with Farage's action.
Very promising for Remain, very much keeps the pressure on Boris not to dip and means he has to focus on attacking Farage as much as Labour. Farage truly is a great asset to the remain cause, after his initial victory over them.
I am not sure.
Boris will make the case that a vote for anyone else may see Corbyn in No 10. The fear of Corbyn will trump (sorry) everything else is many voters minds, including brexit
So Boris will hope. But I think Farage has just sunk Brexit, and many people will be very grateful for that. By demanding Boris abandon his own deal he knew full well no pact would be possible, so its only purpose was to posture, and he knows what impact that might have.
I think, maybe, you are expressing your own hopes there.
So long as Corbyn leads labour Boris has a good chance of a win and hence Brexit on the 31st January
Also fierce attack on Farage from Baker and Francois speaking for the spartans
Obviously my own preferences colour my perceptions, that's true of all of us. I've been pretty clear that Boris can still win even with BXP standing everywhere. But it is definitely harder, and small percentages in the wrong place could make the difference. At the very least it means Boris has to focus time and energy to refuting Farage's attacks on his Brexit deal, when without that it would have been much easier to portray anyone who didn;t like it as a remoaner.
Fair comment though I expect the Spartans will start a sustained attack on Farage
We could be in a position where no post-GE coalition can be formed if LDs refuse (as they have said) to go into coalition with Labour.
That's just pre-election posturing. if they held the balance they'd not oppose a Labour government.
If they thought being in coalition with the tories hurt them just wait and see what happens if they prop up anti semites and marxists.
I say 'not oppose' rather than support because I don't think that they'd actively support Labour. There could be a position where they have to make a choice between stopping brexit by not opposing Labour or see the UK crash out when no government can be formed (and another general election happens).
Personally I suspect that scenario is not likely and the Tories will hold onto enough seats that only they can form a government (even if it's not a majority).
We could be in a position where no post-GE coalition can be formed if LDs refuse (as they have said) to go into coalition with Labour.
That's just pre-election posturing. if they held the balance they'd not oppose a Labour government.
Correct, but no coalition.
The LDs have promised no coalition and they mean it. The closest we'll get is confidence and supply. I wonder if this would mean a billion quid for Shetland?!
So, I'd reckon the middle scenario is the most likely. But I wouldn't discount either of the other two. My "condidence interval" for the LDs (i.e. the range I'd expect them to fall in 80% of the time) is incredibly wide - perhaps 10 to 40 seats.
With that confidence interval a sell of the Yellow Peril on the spreads at 45* is a spiffing bet. Like any such spread bet, it's not without an outside risk of a big loss, so not one for the faint-hearted or anyone who can't afford such a loss, but I tend to agree with your take on this.
What would happen if CP won most seats but insufficient for a majority and no coalition or C&S was possible?
I assume that LP could form a government with C&S/coalition with LDs and SNP - but if this were not possible either (maybe LDs refused) what happens then??
As much as I think its a tactical mistake to go head-to-head rather than multiparty I do think this is good for the country to see the clear choice and good on Boris for bravely agreeing to the challenge immediately.
Boris will be the first PM ever in the lead in the polls who has immediately agreed to the first debate proposed without prevarication. Good on him for that.
As much as I think its a tactical mistake to go head-to-head rather than multiparty I do think this is good for the country to see the clear choice and good on Boris for bravely agreeing to the challenge immediately.
Boris will be the first PM ever in the lead in the polls who has immediately agreed to the first debate proposed without prevarication. Good on him for that.
And by then of course the manifestos will have been published.
What would happen if CP won most seats but insufficient for a majority and no coalition or C&S was possible?
I assume that LP could form a government with C&S/coalition with LDs and SNP - but if this were not possible either (maybe LDs refused) what happens then??
Either Con or Lab would form a minority government and deal with urgent business before another election in 6 months or so. or neither will and another election happens almost immediately.
If Con don't win a majority then Boris is toast by the way.
I recently saw some personnel notes from RAF officer trainees in the 1930s and race was one of the key things that was highlighted. (And there were >10% non white trainees with recruits from the Commonwealth).
I’ve already placed bets on a LD overall majority and LD most seats, at good odds, recognising the chance that this election could be unpredictable in all sorts of directions
I'm negative on the LDs compared to OGH and the market, but I think that's a good bet.
People on here are far too certain about how the future is going to play out. I can see scenarios where Labour gets dockside hookered (a la Scotland). And I can see scenarios where they end up gaining seats.
"What would happen if CP won most seats but insufficient for a majority and no coalition or C&S was possible?
I assume that LP could form a government with C&S/coalition with LDs and SNP - but if this were not possible either (maybe LDs refused) what happens then??"
Either Con or Lab would form a minority government and deal with urgent business before another election in 6 months or so. or neither will and another election happens almost immediately.
If Con don't win a majority then Boris is toast by the way."
Yes - after backing Corbyn for next PM at 9/4 I`m next going to look at odds for Next Tory Leader.
If Boris is replaced sooner rather than later what are your thoughts about best contender? Gove?
So, I'd reckon the middle scenario is the most likely. But I wouldn't discount either of the other two. My "condidence interval" for the LDs (i.e. the range I'd expect them to fall in 80% of the time) is incredibly wide - perhaps 10 to 40 seats.
With that confidence interval a sell of the Yellow Peril on the spreads at 45* is a spiffing bet. Like any such spread bet, it's not without an outside risk of a big loss, so not one for the faint-hearted or anyone who can't afford such a loss, but I tend to agree with your take on this.
(* I sold them at this price yesterday).
I'm getting fed up with Sporting Index. They're consistently limiting my bet stakes to small sizes. Given that they're a market maker, they presumably are getting as many buyers as sellers at their prices and they have quite a margin to protect them / provide them with profits. It seems very lame indeed to me.
Not sure the Lib Dems are going to do aswell as some in the media suggest .
I see their vote getting squeezed and I put them at around 10% to 12% come Election Day .
In 2017, they started at about 11-12%, and ended up at 7%.
This time, they've started at 18-19%, and have probably lost a few points already.
It is quite possible that this year is simply a 2017 rerun, and the LDs end up where you say. In which case they'll probably lose North Norfolk and maybe one or two other seats, while gaining Richmond Park, Sheffield Hallam and Ceridigion. It'll be a wash (or maybe up one or two seats), and Ms Swinson will probably be stepping down.
Alternatively, @Byronic is right and she'll play pretty well in deepest Remainia. In which case the LDs will poll 15-18%, and probable end up in the low 20s in terms of number of seats.
Finally, there's always the possibility the LDs will find a message that resonates, and they may end up breaking the 20% barrier, and perhaps running Labour close. (Or even, and yes this is low probability, but it's still possible, beating Labour into second in terms of number of votes.) In which case, there could be a lot of seats that fall to the Yellow Peril... or a lot of good second place results.
My feel, and it's just a feel, is that:
1. Swinson is better than Farron, and the shine has come of Corbyn 2. The LDs are much, much better organised than in 2017 3. There is 15-25% chunk of the electorate who are Remainiacs, and the LDs will benefit
So, I'd reckon the middle scenario is the most likely. But I wouldn't discount either of the other two. My "condidence interval" for the LDs (i.e. the range I'd expect them to fall in 80% of the time) is incredibly wide - perhaps 10 to 40 seats.
I’m what you’d call a Remainiac but I have deep reservations over their revoke policy , equally I want to see radical changes to the country . I have no problem with the Lib Dems doing well but not at the expense of Labour and giving the Tories a big majority . Labour Remainers of course should vote Lib Dem where they’re best placed to beat the Tories but otherwise they must stick with the party .
So, I'd reckon the middle scenario is the most likely. But I wouldn't discount either of the other two. My "condidence interval" for the LDs (i.e. the range I'd expect them to fall in 80% of the time) is incredibly wide - perhaps 10 to 40 seats.
With that confidence interval a sell of the Yellow Peril on the spreads at 45* is a spiffing bet. Like any such spread bet, it's not without an outside risk of a big loss, so not one for the faint-hearted or anyone who can't afford such a loss, but I tend to agree with your take on this.
(* I sold them at this price yesterday).
I'm getting fed up with Sporting Index. They're consistently limiting my bet stakes to small sizes. Given that they're a market maker, they presumably are getting as many buyers as sellers at their prices and they have quite a margin to protect them / provide them with profits. It seems very lame indeed to me.
They are a bookmaker more than a market maker and a lot of the markets are not that liquid. Many would be delighted to still be able to place any bet with them.....
ITV debate important in sense that reinforces in viewers minds that only Con or Lab can win.
Result: LD and BXP get squeezed.
No surprise that Con and Lab don't want to risk a repeat of Clegg in 2010 GE debates.
I'm going out on a limb here.
I think the LDs will benefit from being excluded from the debate.
1. I think this enables them to activate the most important part of any LD voter's psyche - the it's not fair instinct. 2. They will probably manage to put together some stunts around this 3. (Broadcast TV doesn't matter so much any more) 4. Swinson won't look out of her depth, because she's not going to be up on stage.
"What would happen if CP won most seats but insufficient for a majority and no coalition or C&S was possible?
I assume that LP could form a government with C&S/coalition with LDs and SNP - but if this were not possible either (maybe LDs refused) what happens then??"
Either Con or Lab would form a minority government and deal with urgent business before another election in 6 months or so. or neither will and another election happens almost immediately.
If Con don't win a majority then Boris is toast by the way."
Yes - after backing Corbyn for next PM at 9/4 I`m next going to look at odds for Next Tory Leader.
If Boris is replaced sooner rather than later what are your thoughts about best contender? Gove?
There's a few in the cabinet at the moment who could gather momentum. Gove definitely but Javid could surprise people.
What would happen if CP won most seats but insufficient for a majority and no coalition or C&S was possible?
I assume that LP could form a government with C&S/coalition with LDs and SNP - but if this were not possible either (maybe LDs refused) what happens then??
As much as I think its a tactical mistake to go head-to-head rather than multiparty I do think this is good for the country to see the clear choice and good on Boris for bravely agreeing to the challenge immediately.
Boris will be the first PM ever in the lead in the polls who has immediately agreed to the first debate proposed without prevarication. Good on him for that.
I tend to agree. I think BJ would benefit from Corbyn and Swinson fighting like rats in a sack over Brexit.
So, I'd reckon the middle scenario is the most likely. But I wouldn't discount either of the other two. My "condidence interval" for the LDs (i.e. the range I'd expect them to fall in 80% of the time) is incredibly wide - perhaps 10 to 40 seats.
With that confidence interval a sell of the Yellow Peril on the spreads at 45* is a spiffing bet. Like any such spread bet, it's not without an outside risk of a big loss, so not one for the faint-hearted or anyone who can't afford such a loss, but I tend to agree with your take on this.
(* I sold them at this price yesterday).
I'm getting fed up with Sporting Index. They're consistently limiting my bet stakes to small sizes. Given that they're a market maker, they presumably are getting as many buyers as sellers at their prices and they have quite a margin to protect them / provide them with profits. It seems very lame indeed to me.
Not sure the Lib Dems are going to do aswell as some in the media suggest .
I see their vote getting squeezed and I put them at around 10% to 12% come Election Day .
In 2017, they started at about 11-12%, and ended up at 7%.
This time, they've started at 18-19%, and have probably lost a few points already.
It is quite possible that this year is simply a 2017 rerun, and the LDs end up where you say. In which case they'll probably lose North Norfolk and maybe one or two other seats, while gaining Richmond Park, Sheffield Hallam and Ceridigion. It'll be a wash (or maybe up one or two seats), and Ms Swinson will probably be stepping down.
Alternatively, @Byronic is right and she'll play pretty well in deepest Remainia. In which case the LDs will poll 15-18%, and probable end up in the low 20s in terms of number of seats.
Finally, there's always the possibility the LDs will find a message that resonates, and they may end up breaking the 20% barrier, and perhaps running Labour close. (Or even, and yes this is low probability, but it's still possible, beating Labour into second in terms of number of votes.) In which case, there could be a lot of seats that fall to the Yellow Peril... or a lot of good second place results.
My feel, and it's just a feel, is that:
1. Swinson is better than Farron, and the shine has come of Corbyn 2. The LDs are much, much better organised than in 2017 3. There is 15-25% chunk of the electorate who are Remainiacs, and the LDs will benefit
So, I'd reckon the middle scenario is the most likely. But I wouldn't discount either of the other two. My "condidence interval" for the LDs (i.e. the range I'd expect them to fall in 80% of the time) is incredibly wide - perhaps 10 to 40 seats.
I’m what you’d call a Remainiac but I have deep reservations over their revoke policy , .
I don't think that qualifies you are a remainiac. A remoaner at best, since you've expressed willingness to accept, though not like, leaving with a deal.
What would happen if CP won most seats but insufficient for a majority and no coalition or C&S was possible?
I assume that LP could form a government with C&S/coalition with LDs and SNP - but if this were not possible either (maybe LDs refused) what happens then??
Another election.
Has anyone checked how close the timetable would be to get a 2nd election done in time for 31 Jan deadline? Im guessing its not practical given a few days to work through possible coalitions after 1st election, 25 working days and a few bank holidays?
Why does anyone who believes in aliens or the possibility of them automatically be thought to be mentally ill?
Did you know that Ronald Regan and Jimmy Carter both saw UFO's before becoming President, indeed Jimmy Carter filled out a form about it. Going back further Abraham Lincoln is said to have believed in them and he received a vision that helped him strategically plan an important battle in the civil war.
Personally, I don't think we have the evidence to prove or disprove the rumours. Any evidence such as pilots seeing Alien motherships i.e. A Japanese pilot is said to have witnessed one while flying over Alaska with supportive radar evidence! The CIA even had a briefing meeting and told the people that the meeting never happened and they were never there!
People often say they are reincarnated and so forth, so whilst unusual how do we know that the former candidate is not on the level?
AlastairMeeks: Out of interest what spread bet was you trying to make? Be interesting to know your view given Farage`s bombshell today.
I have been restricted to £6 a seat selling the Lib Dems (I wanted £10 a seat, so not exactly Bertie Big Bollocks).
My view, expressed earlier in the day, is that I see Nigel Farage's stunt as broadly neutral in effect. His endorsement would have been a very mixed blessing - there are a host of Remain-supporting voters who are already very doubtful about Boris Johnson and who would have been put off further. Moreover, Boris Johnson can now pose as the middle course.
Set against that, it may well lead to the withdrawal deal being scrutinised in more detail, which is unlikely to be to the Conservatives advantage.
ITV debate important in sense that reinforces in viewers minds that only Con or Lab can win.
Result: LD and BXP get squeezed.
No surprise that Con and Lab don't want to risk a repeat of Clegg in 2010 GE debates.
I'm going out on a limb here.
I think the LDs will benefit from being excluded from the debate.
1. I think this enables them to activate the most important part of any LD voter's psyche - the it's not fair instinct. 2. They will probably manage to put together some stunts around this 3. (Broadcast TV doesn't matter so much any more) 4. Swinson won't look out of her depth, because she's not going to be up on stage.
It all depends on what formats the other broadcasters use and how many other debates and programs there are. The debates will suck the coverage out of the election for two days either side. if there are mostly debates like this one then it'll impact the minor parties massively.
Why does anyone who believes in aliens or the possibility of them automatically be thought to be mentally ill?
Did you know that Ronald Regan and Jimmy Carter both saw UFO's before becoming President, indeed Jimmy Carter filled out a form about it. Going back further Abraham Lincoln is said to have believed in them and he received a vision that helped him strategically plan an important battle in the civil war.
Personally, I don't think we have the evidence to prove or disprove the rumours. Any evidence such as pilots seeing Alien motherships i.e. A Japanese pilot is said to have witnessed one while flying over Alaska despite radar evidence! The CIA even had a briefing meeting and told the people that the meeting never happened and they were never there!
People often say they are reincarnated and so forth, so whilst unusual how do we know that the former candidate is not on the level?
AlastairMeeks: Out of interest what spread bet was you trying to make? Be interesting to know your view given Farage`s bombshell today.
I have been restricted to £6 a seat selling the Lib Dems (I wanted £10 a seat, so not exactly Bertie Big Bollocks).
I can't understand why they would restrict you at all. I can see that they'd want to balance the buyers and sellers overall, and not accept a single bet so large that it disrupted the overall balance of their book, but in general they should just adjust the price to keep their buy and sell liability balanced.
Why does anyone who believes in aliens or the possibility of them automatically be thought to be mentally ill?
Did you know that Ronald Regan and Jimmy Carter both saw UFO's before becoming President, indeed Jimmy Carter filled out a form about it. Going back further Abraham Lincoln is said to have believed in them and he received a vision that helped him strategically plan an important battle in the civil war.
Personally, I don't think we have the evidence to prove or disprove the rumours. Any evidence such as pilots seeing Alien motherships i.e. A Japanese pilot is said to have witnessed one while flying over Alaska with supporting radar evidence! The CIA even had a briefing meeting and told the people that the meeting never happened and they were never there!
People often say they are reincarnated and so forth, so whilst unusual how do we know that the former candidate is not on the level?
17% believe that governments have covered up alien life so she is not alone.
It would not surprise me if they covered these things up as too many interests might be damaged should clean energy or something else beneficial was obtainable. Lack of evidence I suppose but a former Canadian Minister of defence is on record as saying that Aliens are real and Governments do have joint projects with them.
Incidentally, as well as Sporting Index and SpreadEx, there's also a GE seats market at Star Spreads. Politics is very much a minor interest for them, so their markets might be suspended more than the other providers, but they seem OK. (I had a very nice spread bet with them last time on the number of women MPs.)
It would not surprise me if they covered these things up as too many interests might be damaged should clean energy or something else beneficial was obtainable. Lack of evidence I suppose but a former Canadian Minister of defence is on record as saying that Aliens are real and Governments do have joint projects with them.
The joint project is clearly highly effective since Canada hasn't been invaded in yonks.
AlastairMeeks: Out of interest what spread bet was you trying to make? Be interesting to know your view given Farage`s bombshell today.
I have been restricted to £6 a seat selling the Lib Dems (I wanted £10 a seat, so not exactly Bertie Big Bollocks).
I can't understand why they would restrict you at all. I can see that they'd want to balance the buyers and sellers overall, and not accept a single bet so large that it disrupted the overall balance of their book, but in general they should just adjust the price to keep their buy and sell liability balanced.
Betfair Sportsbook restricted the fuck out of me on the constituency markets after initially allowing me some decent bets at silly odds.
This ultimately worked out in my favour as it stopped me balancing out my book as prices shifted and my initial bets won.
AlastairMeeks: Out of interest what spread bet was you trying to make? Be interesting to know your view given Farage`s bombshell today.
I have been restricted to £6 a seat selling the Lib Dems (I wanted £10 a seat, so not exactly Bertie Big Bollocks).
I can't understand why they would restrict you at all. I can see that they'd want to balance the buyers and sellers overall, and not accept a single bet so large that it disrupted the overall balance of their book, but in general they should just adjust the price to keep their buy and sell liability balanced.
Betfair Sportsbook restricted the fuck out of me on the constituency markets after initially allowing me some decent bets at silly odds.
This ultimately worked out in my favour as it stopped me balancing out my book as prices shifted and my initial bets won.
What would happen if CP won most seats but insufficient for a majority and no coalition or C&S was possible?
I assume that LP could form a government with C&S/coalition with LDs and SNP - but if this were not possible either (maybe LDs refused) what happens then??
The Tories stay in power as largest party if they have more than Labour and the SNP and Greens combined and the LDs and DUP abstain
AlastairMeeks: Out of interest what spread bet was you trying to make? Be interesting to know your view given Farage`s bombshell today.
I have been restricted to £6 a seat selling the Lib Dems (I wanted £10 a seat, so not exactly Bertie Big Bollocks).
I can't understand why they would restrict you at all. I can see that they'd want to balance the buyers and sellers overall, and not accept a single bet so large that it disrupted the overall balance of their book, but in general they should just adjust the price to keep their buy and sell liability balanced.
Betfair Sportsbook restricted the fuck out of me on the constituency markets after initially allowing me some decent bets at silly odds.
This ultimately worked out in my favour as it stopped me balancing out my book as prices shifted and my initial bets won.
Tell me about it!
I'm not a big money better but it was still hilarious to go from putting 30 or so quid on a constituency bet to being allowed (if I remeber correctly) two pounds thirteen pence on my next round of bets.
I hadn't even won yet.
The Betfair Sports book Constituency markets were so, so soft. It was hilarious.
Anne Frank's home is a very sobering experience and why I despise anti semitism with a passion and Corbyn in particular
He has to be kept out of no 10
But Pillarboxes and Piccanninies is just bantz right? I was at the Anne Frank House last weekend, teaching my kids about the evils of anti-Semitism. I will still vote Labour.
Comments
I don't view Corbyn The only way to stop Brexit is by voting LD. That'll be a powerful message.
I don't think Labour will be talking about Brexit any more than they absolutely have to.
I see their vote getting squeezed and I put them at around 10% to 12% come Election Day .
I’m almost entirely objective.
You can’t just reply to anyone who you think is pouring a little bit of water on the hopes of the LDs by saying ‘you’re not objective’.
I’ve already placed bets on a LD overall majority and LD most seats, at good odds, recognising the chance that this election could be unpredictable in all sorts of directions. And I am open to convincing whenever something thinks I’ve got it wrong too. I’m not tubthumping for Boris in this and I mainly want to make money. I merely outlined my view of how some centre-right soft Tories may view the LD offering.
You are way too emotionally invested in the LDs due to your own long-standing personal involvement and (rightly held) pride in your family history in it going back over 100 years.
It really does colour your betting objectivity and makes you far too tempted to use your platform to promote their chances instead.
I put anything you say on the LDs through a very heavy filter.
Sorry.
Maybe Jo Swinson will surprise us and go all statesman/lady in the next few weeks, with some well-judged centrist manifesto surprises.
But, I haven’t see it yet. Just Revoke turned up to 11.
1. Biden and Sanders have half the number of staffers or offices as Warren.
2. Warren has meaningfully less than Buttigieg
This means that Warren and Buttigieg are likely to do a much better job of mobilising voters than Biden and Sanders.
https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/politics/former-brexit-party-candidate-for-yorkshire-seat-says-she-comes-from-far-flung-star-and-aliens-are-working-with-world-governments-1-10081127/amp?__twitter_impression=true
Though I wasn't being serious, sorry that didn't come across.
When Brexit was voted for, they suddenly discovered they actually wanted a different relationship with the EU.
As an EFTA/EEA type myself, it's been really rather depressing. There's a lot of people on the Leave side I've lost a lot of respect for.
Tories can beat Farage they don't need him on their side.
If Con are seen as being in a "team" with BXP they lose a chunk of votes immediately.
Simply not worth it - because BXP will take some votes from Lab as well.
Whilst BXP will take more votes from Con, the differential will be less than the votes Con lose if there's a deal. And it's even worse than that - in that scenario, Con votes lost count double if they go to the challenger in a seat.
- vote the way they always do because nothing obviously better
- vote remain/leave
- protest vote
- dont vote
The LDs do badly on the first of those options but fine on second and third.
I Agree - be very difficult for Tories to get a majority now. Farage has given license for Labour to call Boris`s deal BINO.
Labour and LibDems will gain more seats as Tories get relegated into 2nd place in many constituencies, BXP may pick up 1 or 2 at most.
I wonder whether Farage likes his MEP job too much to give it up.
He`s just prolonged the agony, maybe finished off Brexit altogether, and rendered the GE pointless from a Tory point of view.
We could be in a position where no post-GE coalition can be formed if LDs refuse (as they have said) to go into coalition with Labour.
Now, people might say both of those are likely, though personally I disagree. But now the Tories need it, whereas if Farage was not so obstinate it would just help.
There'll be lots of Leavers walking to the polling station thinking "Do I REALLY want to risk sinking Brexit? For what?"
So long as Corbyn leads labour Boris has a good chance of a win and hence Brexit on the 31st January
Also fierce attack on Farage from Baker and Francois speaking for the spartans
This time, they've started at 18-19%, and have probably lost a few points already.
It is quite possible that this year is simply a 2017 rerun, and the LDs end up where you say. In which case they'll probably lose North Norfolk and maybe one or two other seats, while gaining Richmond Park, Sheffield Hallam and Ceridigion. It'll be a wash (or maybe up one or two seats), and Ms Swinson will probably be stepping down.
Alternatively, @Byronic is right and she'll play pretty well in deepest Remainia. In which case the LDs will poll 15-18%, and probable end up in the low 20s in terms of number of seats.
Finally, there's always the possibility the LDs will find a message that resonates, and they may end up breaking the 20% barrier, and perhaps running Labour close. (Or even, and yes this is low probability, but it's still possible, beating Labour into second in terms of number of votes.) In which case, there could be a lot of seats that fall to the Yellow Peril... or a lot of good second place results.
My feel, and it's just a feel, is that:
1. Swinson is better than Farron, and the shine has come of Corbyn
2. The LDs are much, much better organised than in 2017
3. There is 15-25% chunk of the electorate who are Remainiacs, and the LDs will benefit
So, I'd reckon the middle scenario is the most likely. But I wouldn't discount either of the other two. My "condidence interval" for the LDs (i.e. the range I'd expect them to fall in 80% of the time) is incredibly wide - perhaps 10 to 40 seats.
https://twitter.com/Dannythefink/status/1189966456915660800
Personally I suspect that scenario is not likely and the Tories will hold onto enough seats that only they can form a government (even if it's not a majority).
The LDs have promised no coalition and they mean it. The closest we'll get is confidence and supply. I wonder if this would mean a billion quid for Shetland?!
Result: LD and BXP get squeezed.
No surprise that Con and Lab don't want to risk a repeat of Clegg in 2010 GE debates.
(* I sold them at this price yesterday).
I assume that LP could form a government with C&S/coalition with LDs and SNP - but if this were not possible either (maybe LDs refused) what happens then??
Boris will be the first PM ever in the lead in the polls who has immediately agreed to the first debate proposed without prevarication. Good on him for that.
If Con don't win a majority then Boris is toast by the way.
He has to be kept out of no 10
After it's over, the vast majority of viewers would endorse Julie Etchingham as PM.
People on here are far too certain about how the future is going to play out. I can see scenarios where Labour gets dockside hookered (a la Scotland). And I can see scenarios where they end up gaining seats.
Stocky said:
"What would happen if CP won most seats but insufficient for a majority and no coalition or C&S was possible?
I assume that LP could form a government with C&S/coalition with LDs and SNP - but if this were not possible either (maybe LDs refused) what happens then??"
Either Con or Lab would form a minority government and deal with urgent business before another election in 6 months or so. or neither will and another election happens almost immediately.
If Con don't win a majority then Boris is toast by the way."
Yes - after backing Corbyn for next PM at 9/4 I`m next going to look at odds for Next Tory Leader.
If Boris is replaced sooner rather than later what are your thoughts about best contender? Gove?
He wouldn't have put "for some" in brackets, Uxbridge would be interesting for everyone.
My guess is a Labour Leave seat in the coalfields.
Boris - He needs to win a majority to keep his job. He doesn't have the friends or the fortitude that TM had.
Jeremy - He needs to win seats to keep his job and may quit in the medium term if he doesn't become PM.
Jo - Needs to get the Lib Dems in the 20s in seats terms and must not lose seats overall to keep her job.
Nigel Dodds needs to hold his seat (not a given I hear) but most of the others are pretty safe.
I think the LDs will benefit from being excluded from the debate.
1. I think this enables them to activate the most important part of any LD voter's psyche - the it's not fair instinct.
2. They will probably manage to put together some stunts around this
3. (Broadcast TV doesn't matter so much any more)
4. Swinson won't look out of her depth, because she's not going to be up on stage.
If it delivers LibDem Gains and Plaid Cymru losses, he will be ousted.
Did you know that Ronald Regan and Jimmy Carter both saw UFO's before becoming President, indeed Jimmy Carter filled out a form about it. Going back further Abraham Lincoln is said to have believed in them and he received a vision that helped him strategically plan an important battle in the civil war.
Personally, I don't think we have the evidence to prove or disprove the rumours. Any evidence such as pilots seeing Alien motherships i.e. A Japanese pilot is said to have witnessed one while flying over Alaska with supportive radar evidence! The CIA even had a briefing meeting and told the people that the meeting never happened and they were never there!
People often say they are reincarnated and so forth, so whilst unusual how do we know that the former candidate is not on the level?
My view, expressed earlier in the day, is that I see Nigel Farage's stunt as broadly neutral in effect. His endorsement would have been a very mixed blessing - there are a host of Remain-supporting voters who are already very doubtful about Boris Johnson and who would have been put off further. Moreover, Boris Johnson can now pose as the middle course.
Set against that, it may well lead to the withdrawal deal being scrutinised in more detail, which is unlikely to be to the Conservatives advantage.
So, no huge change in my view.
17% believe that governments have covered up alien life so she is not alone.
https://starspreads.com/competitions/uk-politics,NEZ9ZNKJ/
Swinson has been the recipient of Unionist tactical voting in both 2015 and '17 (indeed I thought she might get enough in '15 to hold on).
That is going to unwind as natural Lab and Con sense the chance to unseat a party leader.
She'll still win but no where close to the walk in the park Edinburgh West will be.
This ultimately worked out in my favour as it stopped me balancing out my book as prices shifted and my initial bets won.
Wise up anti Tory folks otherwise its a Tory Maj.
CON: 40% (+4)
LAB: 29% (+2)
LDEM: 14% (-3)
BREX: 9% (-2)
GRN: 3% (-)
via
@Panelbase
, 30 - 31 Oct
The LDs can always campaign to rejoin if we leave, there's no need to put an antisemite sympathiser in Downing Street.
If the Tories gain a majority then blame the Labourites who chose Corbyn over decency.
Let's hope he's in the same position at the flag.
https://twitter.com/F1/status/1190320834310803456
I hadn't even won yet.
The Betfair Sports book Constituency markets were so, so soft. It was hilarious.