One of the most interest constituency bets is Dagenham & Rainham. Shadsy has it as 1.83 for each of Labour (Jon Cruddas) and the Conservatives. It's a very Brexity place, so a lot may depend on whether the BXP nicks votes off the Tories (or off Labour for that matter). There's a highish ethnic minority population. It's not a LibDemish kind of seat.
Thoughts?
Neck-and-neck. I wouldn't bet on it.
I have it as a very narrow Con gain. But I have Canterbury as a very narrow Lab hold. Both toss ups really.
But Get Voting (https://getvoting.org), which is focused on the Leave/Remain issue - and uses 40,000 recent interviews - claims the LDs will win both of these seats.
Miller's site, though, merely churns out the results of the 2017 GE as if nothing's changed in the past two and a half years. She really should stick to launching court cases
Although that tactical voting website has the opposite problem IMO.
For example, it's recommending a LD vote in Kensington where Labour actually hold the seat, which seems a bit extreme to me, (where the result last time was Lab 42.2%, Con 42.1%, LD 12.2%).
No, not helpful. But will be more than compensated for when Dave Lee Travis comes out for the Cons - as he almost certainly will.
So, which party gets the most endorsements from Celebrity Sex Pests?
----
BTW, I have just got the third leaflet in 3 days from the LibDems -- this one bragging about putting out fires in the Amazon, sending a message to Trump, and action on climate change.
Every sentences is a polished gobbet of mush.
It must be personal, mustn't it? It is a campaign of coordinated harassment, probably headed by OllyT.
Is any other pb-er getting this much junk from the LibDems ?
Can I put it all in a big box and send it back to them at the end of the election without a stamp, so they have to pay to collect it. ?
A LibDem leaflet a day, and the campaign has not started ! By Dec 12th, I will have an impressive collection.
Like all my LibDem literature (and that of other parties too) I have ringed the address on the latest Jo Swinson hagiography and marked "RETURN TO SENDER". If everyone else does that, it will at least bugger up the post to their office....
I also think the slogan "LIBERAL DEMOCRATS - DEMAND BETTER" is a rather two-edged invocation....
Very large Lib Dem shares in a number of the Surrey seats. Woking, Guildford, South West Surrey (Jeremy Hunt seat) and even Esher and Walton (Raab seat) the Lib Dems are polling between 35 and 40 per cent.
Other places like Winchester in Hampshire (well over 40 per cent LD share) look like nailed on Lib Dem gains.
It will be a huge surprise if the LDs do not win Guildford. Not only is it heavily remain, but Anne Milton has been consigned to the scrapheap by a local Conservative Party renowned locally for having been infiltrated by UKIP (and worse), and for numerous scandals (the best one being the mistress of the ex-council leader, who was also a councillor, being prosecuted for impersonating a barrister.
SW Surrey is safe Conservative. The more interesting local seats are Woking (which has had 3 players for a while) and Mole Valley, which saw a Conservative meltdown in May due to an MP regarded as useless even by his own party, and local planning issues which have alienated even rock solid Conservative villages (suggest building a new town next to them and you ask for trouble).
Winchester is a shoo in but the target of the LDs taking back Eastleigh (talked up elsewhere) looks much tougher.
I am surprised anyone would think Winchester was a shoo in for the LDs.it requires a swing of almost 9 per cent against Steve Brine, assuming he is standing again.He is pretty popular locally and here will have the benefit of his pro deal stance.I think this will be close but I would expect Brine to hold on.
OT I am astonished by the South Cambs and South East Cambs numbers. Both of these are safe Tory seats, both of which I know well. I am tempted to believe these figures bear no indication of what will happen in a GE. If, on the other hand they are, the LDs are going to have a very good night!
Gina Miller's tactical voting website is recommending anti-Tory voters to vote Labour in both of those seats.
Seems bizarre given the May local results when the LDs won the council with 30 seats to Conservative 11 and Labour 2. I am not saying the LDs will win but they are very much the only challenge to the Conservatives.
This kind of thing is why I believe there will be a big effort from the megadonors to strongly back a "Not-Warren" candidate if Biden stumbles. And that candidate may not be in the field yet.
Christ you're not another Hillary backer are you ?
I don't think it is impossible she gets pressured to join. They'll find someone to back even if it isn't her.
If Biden stumbles, she would be the last person to pick.
Yes, the Hillary idea is pure (and usually Republican) fantasy.
Who actually has a campaign, an organisation in place, and is now ahead of Biden in Iowa. And would probably make a rather good president.
Warren's attempts to out-Bernie Bernie can only be good for Mayor Pete. I would also like to remind everyone that his star is now rising in New Hampshire too.
You couldn't make it up really. Two tactical voting websites: one recommends voting LD in Kensington to keep the Tories out which has a Labour MP, and another one that recommends voting Labour in South Cambridgeshire which is a top target for the LDs.
OT I am astonished by the South Cambs and South East Cambs numbers. Both of these are safe Tory seats, both of which I know well. I am tempted to believe these figures bear no indication of what will happen in a GE. If, on the other hand they are, the LDs are going to have a very good night!
I do believe Heidi Allen saw internal polling and saw South Cambs was not winnable for the Lib Dems, if so you've got to wonder how they will achieve over 30 seats
Possible, but I'd reckon South Cambs, which includes Girton and Homerton colleges is trending LD in the medium term.
Very large Lib Dem shares in a number of the Surrey seats. Woking, Guildford, South West Surrey (Jeremy Hunt seat) and even Esher and Walton (Raab seat) the Lib Dems are polling between 35 and 40 per cent.
Other places like Winchester in Hampshire (well over 40 per cent LD share) look like nailed on Lib Dem gains.
It will be a huge surprise if the LDs do not win Guildford. Not only is it heavily remain, but Anne Milton has been consigned to the scrapheap by a local Conservative Party renowned locally for having been infiltrated by UKIP (and worse), and for numerous scandals (the best one being the mistress of the ex-council leader, who was also a councillor, being prosecuted for impersonating a barrister.
SW Surrey is safe Conservative. The more interesting local seats are Woking (which has had 3 players for a while) and Mole Valley, which saw a Conservative meltdown in May due to an MP regarded as useless even by his own party, and local planning issues which have alienated even rock solid Conservative villages (suggest building a new town next to them and you ask for trouble).
Winchester is a shoo in but the target of the LDs taking back Eastleigh (talked up elsewhere) looks much tougher.
I am surprised anyone would think Winchester was a shoo in for the LDs.it requires a swing of almost 9 per cent against Steve Brine, assuming he is standing again.He is pretty popular locally and here will have the benefit of his pro deal stance.I think this will be close but I would expect Brine to hold on.
OT I am astonished by the South Cambs and South East Cambs numbers. Both of these are safe Tory seats, both of which I know well. I am tempted to believe these figures bear no indication of what will happen in a GE. If, on the other hand they are, the LDs are going to have a very good night!
Gina Miller's tactical voting website is recommending anti-Tory voters to vote Labour in both of those seats.
Seems bizarre given the May local results when the LDs won the council with 30 seats to Conservative 11 and Labour 2. I am not saying the LDs will win but they are very much the only challenge to the Conservatives.
That site seems to be based mostly (fully?) on 2017 GE results, others on current polling/modelling. Pros to each but using 2017 results will not be particularly favourable to LD as they weren't second in all that many places, even.
Edit - see Flanner aleady pointed that out, sorry.
You couldn't make it up really. Two tactical voting websites: one recommends voting LD in Kensington to keep the Tories out which has a Labour MP, and another one that recommends voting Labour in South Cambridgeshire which is a top target for the LDs.
Perhaps we should set up another one which recommends the Greens as a compromise?
You couldn't make it up really. Two tactical voting websites: one recommends voting LD in Kensington to keep the Tories out which has a Labour MP, and another one that recommends voting Labour in South Cambridgeshire which is a top target for the LDs.
Very large Lib Dem shares in a number of the Surrey seats. Woking, Guildford, South West Surrey (Jeremy Hunt seat) and even Esher and Walton (Raab seat) the Lib Dems are polling between 35 and 40 per cent.
Other places like Winchester in Hampshire (well over 40 per cent LD share) look like nailed on Lib Dem gains.
It will be a huge surprise if the LDs do not win Guildford. Not only is it heavily remain, but Anne Milton has been consigned to the scrapheap by a local Conservative Party renowned locally for having been infiltrated by UKIP (and worse), and for numerous scandals (the best one being the mistress of the ex-council leader, who was also a councillor, being prosecuted for impersonating a barrister.
SW Surrey is safe Conservative. The more interesting local seats are Woking (which has had 3 players for a while) and Mole Valley, which saw a Conservative meltdown in May due to an MP regarded as useless even by his own party, and local planning issues which have alienated even rock solid Conservative villages (suggest building a new town next to them and you ask for trouble).
Winchester is a shoo in but the target of the LDs taking back Eastleigh (talked up elsewhere) looks much tougher.
I am surprised anyone would think Winchester was a shoo in for the LDs.it requires a swing of almost 9 per cent against Steve Brine, assuming he is standing again.He is pretty popular locally and here will have the benefit of his pro deal stance.I think this will be close but I would expect Brine to hold on.
9% isn't much for the Lib Dems this time round.
It's more than they are getting with many of the pollsters at the moment and they seem to be on the slide .
You couldn't make it up really. Two tactical voting websites: one recommends voting LD in Kensington to keep the Tories out which has a Labour MP, and another one that recommends voting Labour in South Cambridgeshire which is a top target for the LDs.
Perhaps we should set up another one which recommends the Greens as a compromise?
Very large Lib Dem shares in a number of the Surrey seats. Woking, Guildford, South West Surrey (Jeremy Hunt seat) and even Esher and Walton (Raab seat) the Lib Dems are polling between 35 and 40 per cent.
Other places like Winchester in Hampshire (well over 40 per cent LD share) look like nailed on Lib Dem gains.
It will be a huge surprise if the LDs do not win Guildford. Not only is it heavily remain, but Anne Milton has been consigned to the scrapheap by a local Conservative Party renowned locally for having been infiltrated by UKIP (and worse), and for numerous scandals (the best one being the mistress of the ex-council leader, who was also a councillor, being prosecuted for impersonating a barrister.
SW Surrey is safe Conservative. The more interesting local seats are Woking (which has had 3 players for a while) and Mole Valley, which saw a Conservative meltdown in May due to an MP regarded as useless even by his own party, and local planning issues which have alienated even rock solid Conservative villages (suggest building a new town next to them and you ask for trouble).
Winchester is a shoo in but the target of the LDs taking back Eastleigh (talked up elsewhere) looks much tougher.
Yes I know (I used to live in Winchester and knew Eastleigh well). There has been a disconnect between local and parliamentary elections. Even in 2015 when the Conservatives took a majority of 9000 the LDs took 12 of the 14 seats at the locals. The combination of that disconnect and the more Brexit leaning tendency of Eastleigh compared with Winchester makes me cautious. The thing in favour of the LDs is Mims Davies stepping down.
Mr NorthWales: If Johnson fails to get a majority then the need to follow through on the 2016 marginal victory for leave becomes less legitimate. It will have been usurped by two GEs that have failed to provide a ringing endorsement of that policy, particularly as it is a policy strongly endorsed by the Tories. Yes there will be 50% plus or minus a few percent that will be pissed off, but that is also the case if Brexit happens.
If you thought Brexit was a bad idea when you voted against it in 2016 then it is difficult to imagine it has become a good idea since. A Tory majority now is bad for the country. Sad to say it as I have supported the party pretty much all my adult life. I hope for another hung parliament, and an inevitable referendum to sort out the mess perhaps.
You couldn't make it up really. Two tactical voting websites: one recommends voting LD in Kensington to keep the Tories out which has a Labour MP, and another one that recommends voting Labour in South Cambridgeshire which is a top target for the LDs.
There are genuine complications with working this kind of thing out but it doesn't help that some of the advice will have ulterior motives.
In practice I don't think anyone is going to be convinced that an incumbent can't win (short of personal scandal).
Anyway plenty of time for all sides to get on with making bar charts.
OT I am astonished by the South Cambs and South East Cambs numbers. Both of these are safe Tory seats, both of which I know well. I am tempted to believe these figures bear no indication of what will happen in a GE. If, on the other hand they are, the LDs are going to have a very good night!
I do believe Heidi Allen saw internal polling and saw South Cambs was not winnable for the Lib Dems, if so you've got to wonder how they will achieve over 30 seats
Possible, but I'd reckon South Cambs, which includes Girton and Homerton colleges is trending LD in the medium term.
Maybe both are actually run from a warehouse outside Moscow.
Very large Lib Dem shares in a number of the Surrey seats. Woking, Guildford, South West Surrey (Jeremy Hunt seat) and even Esher and Walton (Raab seat) the Lib Dems are polling between 35 and 40 per cent.
Other places like Winchester in Hampshire (well over 40 per cent LD share) look like nailed on Lib Dem gains.
It will be a huge surprise if the LDs do not win Guildford. Not only is it heavily remain, but Anne Milton has been consigned to the scrapheap by a local Conservative Party renowned locally for having been infiltrated by UKIP (and worse), and for numerous scandals (the best one being the mistress of the ex-council leader, who was also a councillor, being prosecuted for impersonating a barrister.
SW Surrey is safe Conservative. The more interesting local seats are Woking (which has had 3 players for a while) and Mole Valley, which saw a Conservative meltdown in May due to an MP regarded as useless even by his own party, and local planning issues which have alienated even rock solid Conservative villages (suggest building a new town next to them and you ask for trouble).
Winchester is a shoo in but the target of the LDs taking back Eastleigh (talked up elsewhere) looks much tougher.
I am surprised anyone would think Winchester was a shoo in for the LDs.it requires a swing of almost 9 per cent against Steve Brine, assuming he is standing again.He is pretty popular locally and here will have the benefit of his pro deal stance.I think this will be close but I would expect Brine to hold on.
9% isn't much for the Lib Dems this time round.
It's more than they are getting with many of the pollsters at the moment and they seem to be on the slide .
I don't view Swinson as a player but then it's a low bar across the field at the moment. I can't think of anything positive to say about her except she's a woman (not to be misinterpreted). I think this GE is all about leaders - the teams look even more useless than they do.
You couldn't make it up really. Two tactical voting websites: one recommends voting LD in Kensington to keep the Tories out which has a Labour MP, and another one that recommends voting Labour in South Cambridgeshire which is a top target for the LDs.
Sense the influence of Dominic Cummings, Cambridge Analytica and Vladimir Putin in all of this.
You couldn't make it up really. Two tactical voting websites: one recommends voting LD in Kensington to keep the Tories out which has a Labour MP, and another one that recommends voting Labour in South Cambridgeshire which is a top target for the LDs.
Three of the South West London seats, Battersea, Putney and Kensington are now tight 3 way marginals and could go in any direction.At the moment it looks as if the Tories may hold Putney and gain Kensington with Battersea too close to call but a few percentage points ether way could change all this.
Very large Lib Dem shares in a number of the Surrey seats. Woking, Guildford, South West Surrey (Jeremy Hunt seat) and even Esher and Walton (Raab seat) the Lib Dems are polling between 35 and 40 per cent.
Other places like Winchester in Hampshire (well over 40 per cent LD share) look like nailed on Lib Dem gains.
It will be a huge surprise if the LDs do not win Guildford. Not only is it heavily remain, but Anne Milton has been consigned to the scrapheap by a local Conservative Party renowned locally for having been infiltrated by UKIP (and worse), and for numerous scandals (the best one being the mistress of the ex-council leader, who was also a councillor, being prosecuted for impersonating a barrister.
SW Surrey is safe Conservative. The more interesting local seats are Woking (which has had 3 players for a while) and Mole Valley, which saw a Conservative meltdown in May due to an MP regarded as useless even by his own party, and local planning issues which have alienated even rock solid Conservative villages (suggest building a new town next to them and you ask for trouble).
Winchester is a shoo in but the target of the LDs taking back Eastleigh (talked up elsewhere) looks much tougher.
I am surprised anyone would think Winchester was a shoo in for the LDs.it requires a swing of almost 9 per cent against Steve Brine, assuming he is standing again.He is pretty popular locally and here will have the benefit of his pro deal stance.I think this will be close but I would expect Brine to hold on.
9% isn't much for the Lib Dems this time round.
It's more than they are getting with many of the pollsters at the moment and they seem to be on the slide .
I don't view Swinson as a player but then it's a low bar across the field at the moment. I can't think of anything positive to say about her except she's a woman (not to be misinterpreted).
She will probably grow into the job. As you say the bar is very low when you look at the two old misogynists she is up against. I think she will do very well, though that is partly out of hope that it will pull the other two main parties back to the sensible centre.
any updates on how many seats BXP will be contesting? Paddys have a vote share market with 0-4.99% as 11/10 fav. They've polled double figures in every recent poll I've seen so I think they would only go below 5% if they didn't field candidates in 100+ seats.
You couldn't make it up really. Two tactical voting websites: one recommends voting LD in Kensington to keep the Tories out which has a Labour MP, and another one that recommends voting Labour in South Cambridgeshire which is a top target for the LDs.
There are genuine complications with working this kind of thing out but it doesn't help that some of the advice will have ulterior motives.
In practice I don't think anyone is going to be convinced that an incumbent can't win (short of personal scandal).
Anyway plenty of time for all sides to get on with making bar charts.
..being sensible though, if it does say that it is ridiculous. Labour have as much chance of taking S Cambs as the Tories have of taking the Rhondda
Anyone have any thoughts on Cheltenham? Alex Chalk is quite well liked.
Very narrow Tory hold I’m thinking.
My view, Cheltenham has gone through demographic change over the past 10 years. When the LD's were winning the demographic change was increase in students, now it is increase in OAP residential living accommodation and in quite large numbers. I believe you can see this in the turnout figures since 2010, No of voters the same, turnout up by a decent amount. Oldies vote. He is also popular and well thought of as a good local MP fighting the right issues.
Very large Lib Dem shares in a number of the Surrey seats. Woking, Guildford, South West Surrey (Jeremy Hunt seat) and even Esher and Walton (Raab seat) the Lib Dems are polling between 35 and 40 per cent.
Other places like Winchester in Hampshire (well over 40 per cent LD share) look like nailed on Lib Dem gains.
It will be a huge surprise if the LDs do not win Guildford. Not only is it heavily remain, but Anne Milton has been consigned to the scrapheap by a local Conservative Party renowned locally for having been infiltrated by UKIP (and worse), and for numerous scandals (the best one being the mistress of the ex-council leader, who was also a councillor, being prosecuted for impersonating a barrister.
SW Surrey is safe Conservative. The more interesting local seats are Woking (which has had 3 players for a while) and Mole Valley, which saw a Conservative meltdown in May due to an MP regarded as useless even by his own party, and local planning issues which have alienated even rock solid Conservative villages (suggest building a new town next to them and you ask for trouble).
Winchester is a shoo in but the target of the LDs taking back Eastleigh (talked up elsewhere) looks much tougher.
I am surprised anyone would think Winchester was a shoo in for the LDs.it requires a swing of almost 9 per cent against Steve Brine, assuming he is standing again.He is pretty popular locally and here will have the benefit of his pro deal stance.I think this will be close but I would expect Brine to hold on.
9% isn't much for the Lib Dems this time round.
Even today's Panelbase gives a 5% swing, and given that Winchester is very Remain it's likely to do better than the average. Well organised local party and good set of recent council results.
You couldn't make it up really. Two tactical voting websites: one recommends voting LD in Kensington to keep the Tories out which has a Labour MP, and another one that recommends voting Labour in South Cambridgeshire which is a top target for the LDs.
Sense the influence of Dominic Cummings, Cambridge Analytica and Vladimir Putin in all of this.
If they're all in one tent there's no point voting.
One of the most interest constituency bets is Dagenham & Rainham. Shadsy has it as 1.83 for each of Labour (Jon Cruddas) and the Conservatives. It's a very Brexity place, so a lot may depend on whether the BXP nicks votes off the Tories (or off Labour for that matter). There's a highish ethnic minority population. It's not a LibDemish kind of seat.
Thoughts?
It's the 19th strongest seat for Leave (70.3%). UKIP received 29.8% of the vote in 2015. The Best for Britain MRP has Labour/Tory effectively tied on low 30s with Brexit Party just under 20%.
I've seen lots of seats in the MRP where Brexit + Conservative = Leave - A Lot (about 18% here)
I said earlier that I thought that meant Labour was hanging onto more of its Leave voters than the Conservatives were hanging onto their Remain voters - but that doesn't tally with the YouGov analysis which finds the reverse.
Two possibilities. 1. Larger than thought swing to Remain hidden by converts forgetting how they voted in 2016. 2. The MRP underestimates the scale of the shellacking about to be experienced by Labour. (Note, it has Labour down to 186 without tactical voting).
You couldn't make it up really. Two tactical voting websites: one recommends voting LD in Kensington to keep the Tories out which has a Labour MP, and another one that recommends voting Labour in South Cambridgeshire which is a top target for the LDs.
Three of the South West London seats, Battersea, Putney and Kensington are now tight 3 way marginals and could go in any direction.At the moment it looks as if the Tories may hold Putney and gain Kensington with Battersea too close to call but a few percentage points ether way could change all this.
And Wimbledon looks very interesting. Hammond has become a bit of a joke in the local media with his flip flopping and the LDs have a fairly high profile candidate (albeit for unusual reasons).
I don't view Swinson as a player but then it's a low bar across the field at the moment. I can't think of anything positive to say about her except she's a woman (not to be misinterpreted). I think this GE is all about leaders - the teams look even more useless than they do.
I can only see the current LD vote going backwards as the voters return to tribal loyalties as usual.
Very large Lib Dem shares in a number of the Surrey seats. Woking, Guildford, South West Surrey (Jeremy Hunt seat) and even Esher and Walton (Raab seat) the Lib Dems are polling between 35 and 40 per cent.
Other places like Winchester in Hampshire (well over 40 per cent LD share) look like nailed on Lib Dem gains.
It will be a huge surprise if the LDs do not win Guildford. Not only is it heavily remain, but Anne Milton has been consigned to the scrapheap by a local Conservative Party renowned locally for having been infiltrated by UKIP (and worse), and for numerous scandals (the best one being the mistress of the ex-council leader, who was also a councillor, being prosecuted for impersonating a barrister.
SW Surrey is safe Conservative. The more interesting local seats are Woking (which has had 3 players for a while) and Mole Valley, which saw a Conservative meltdown in May due to an MP regarded as useless even by his own party, and local planning issues which have alienated even rock solid Conservative villages (suggest building a new town next to them and you ask for trouble).
Winchester is a shoo in but the target of the LDs taking back Eastleigh (talked up elsewhere) looks much tougher.
I am surprised anyone would think Winchester was a shoo in for the LDs.it requires a swing of almost 9 per cent against Steve Brine, assuming he is standing again.He is pretty popular locally and here will have the benefit of his pro deal stance.I think this will be close but I would expect Brine to hold on.
9% isn't much for the Lib Dems this time round.
It's more than they are getting with many of the pollsters at the moment and they seem to be on the slide .
If the LDs get 17%, and the Tories 40%, then the former are up 10 pp and the latter down 4. That means any seat with less than a 14% gap is vulnerable under UNS.
Now, the LDs may will not get 17%. And the Conservatives may end up higher than 40. But that's the simple maths.
I don't view Swinson as a player but then it's a low bar across the field at the moment. I can't think of anything positive to say about her except she's a woman (not to be misinterpreted). I think this GE is all about leaders - the teams look even more useless than they do.
I can only see the current LD vote going backwards as the voters return to tribal loyalties as usual.
If you look at the LD website (And I have, so you don’t have to) there really isn’t anything on there to tempt a right of centre voter.
They’re playing *solely* off the Revoke wicket to win any floaters. It’s People’s Vote online. Which makes me think they may put on an extra couple of dozen MPs where that sort of message really really resonates, but not much more than that.
Conversely, Boris needs to show a little big of leg on economic liberalism and fiscal conservatism and he should keep most in his tent.
You couldn't make it up really. Two tactical voting websites: one recommends voting LD in Kensington to keep the Tories out which has a Labour MP, and another one that recommends voting Labour in South Cambridgeshire which is a top target for the LDs.
Three of the South West London seats, Battersea, Putney and Kensington are now tight 3 way marginals and could go in any direction.At the moment it looks as if the Tories may hold Putney and gain Kensington with Battersea too close to call but a few percentage points ether way could change all this.
And Wimbledon looks very interesting. Hammond has become a bit of a joke in the local media with his flip flopping and the LDs have a fairly high profile candidate (albeit for unusual reasons).
Yes but again which way do the Remainer voters go? Labour are clear second and held this seat twice in the Blair years so most likely scenario is Hammond holds on despite losing him and Labour both losing votes to the LDs.
I don't view Swinson as a player but then it's a low bar across the field at the moment. I can't think of anything positive to say about her except she's a woman (not to be misinterpreted). I think this GE is all about leaders - the teams look even more useless than they do.
I can only see the current LD vote going backwards as the voters return to tribal loyalties as usual.
This election is characterised by the utter mediocrity of the leaders:
Boris is barely sentient pisshead who can barely string a sentence together without farting his vowels; Corbo is a 1970s-style Marxist who is more interested in growing suspicious plants in his garden than running the country; Tory Swinson has a shit, unfunny nickname that has proven unexpectedly durable.
Then there is Never Nigel Farage, who looks like a coked-up frog.
This kind of thing is why I believe there will be a big effort from the megadonors to strongly back a "Not-Warren" candidate if Biden stumbles. And that candidate may not be in the field yet.
Christ you're not another Hillary backer are you ?
I don't think it is impossible she gets pressured to join. They'll find someone to back even if it isn't her.
If Biden stumbles, she would be the last person to pick.
Yes, the Hillary idea is pure (and usually Republican) fantasy.
Who actually has a campaign, an organisation in place, and is now ahead of Biden in Iowa. And would probably make a rather good president.
Warren's attempts to out-Bernie Bernie can only be good for Mayor Pete. I would also like to remind everyone that his star is now rising in New Hampshire too.
He’s been a very lucky boy, I’m starting to think he has a genuine chance of the nomination, as opposed to an outrageously long shot.
One of the most interest constituency bets is Dagenham & Rainham. Shadsy has it as 1.83 for each of Labour (Jon Cruddas) and the Conservatives. It's a very Brexity place, so a lot may depend on whether the BXP nicks votes off the Tories (or off Labour for that matter). There's a highish ethnic minority population. It's not a LibDemish kind of seat.
Thoughts?
Neck-and-neck. I wouldn't bet on it.
I have it as a very narrow Con gain. But I have Canterbury as a very narrow Lab hold. Both toss ups really.
This is local to me. The Havering wards are all represented by Residents Association (and one Independent), which in Havering are as far as I can tell indistinguishable from Tories except they don't get on with each other. Apart from the Rainham Residents who are clear they are a different group from the other Residents and align more to Labour. In a GE in an even year I would expect this area to lean Tory. But it's also very Brexity so at the moment I would expect it to be overwhelmingly pro-Tory. Dagenham is normally solid Labour, at local elections there is often not a full slate of opposition candidates. Chadwell Heath is the one Dagenham ward that used to have opposition councillors (again RAs). Ethnically, the Dagenham wards are much whiter than the Barking ones (they are the ones where BNP councillors were elected some years ago), and I would expect to be much more pro Leave. I would expect this to be a comfortable Tory gain given current polling.
Which unlucky seat is going to have Daniel Hannan foisted upon it?
You really don’t like him, do you?
I'm sure he has some redeeming qualities but he keeps them very well-hidden.
I knew him personally for some years, went campaigning with him, had curries with him and even gave him a lift in my car on more than one occasion. I found him friendly, funny reasonable and intelligent. And an inspiring speaker.
I lost respect for him after the referendum when he switched to carping from the sidelines, and criticising rather than doing, whilst not having the integrity to stand behind what he said in the past.
If the Lib Dem charge is stopped at say Hazel Grove/Wells I think the Tories would gladly take that. (7% swing, 10 gains by Lib Dems).
London swings will be bigger to the yellows but they're a long way off in all those except SW London.
After being shafted by the Coalition I expect the Lib Dems will be very happy to gain a couple of dozen seats but, more importantly establish themselves as the main opposition to the Tories in swathes of seats across the South in particular.
A Bozo government will eventually lose support, they all do and if Brexit proves to be a mess and we're still arguing about No Deal/FTA details two years down the line they could find themselves in a very useful situation indeed.
Very useful tables. I think one thing to remember is that the turnout was not high AND it was unbalanced. For all his noise Farage did not get his vote out particularly well in the Euro Elections - if he had he would have taken about 5 or 6 more seats. But I think the LDs did get their vote out very effectively. That means of course that there aren't as many LDs who didn't vote in May to come out and vote in the GE.
We don't know yet but Boris seems to be energising the Tory vote like Mrs T did. There is no doubt that Corbyn does the same with his vote. One problem Labour and the LDs have with Boris echoes their problem with Mrs T. They don't see the person who is there but they see a groteque charactature of some monster and they they act as if that perversion were the reality. I think some Tories do it with Corbyn.
This kind of thing is why I believe there will be a big effort from the megadonors to strongly back a "Not-Warren" candidate if Biden stumbles. And that candidate may not be in the field yet.
Christ you're not another Hillary backer are you ?
I don't think it is impossible she gets pressured to join. They'll find someone to back even if it isn't her.
If Biden stumbles, she would be the last person to pick.
Yes, the Hillary idea is pure (and usually Republican) fantasy.
Who actually has a campaign, an organisation in place, and is now ahead of Biden in Iowa. And would probably make a rather good president.
Warren's attempts to out-Bernie Bernie can only be good for Mayor Pete. I would also like to remind everyone that his star is now rising in New Hampshire too.
He’s been a very lucky boy, I’m starting to think he has a genuine chance of the nomination, as opposed to an outrageously long shot.
Cough, cough. Can I just say that I have been punting Mayor Pete for some time?
You couldn't make it up really. Two tactical voting websites: one recommends voting LD in Kensington to keep the Tories out which has a Labour MP, and another one that recommends voting Labour in South Cambridgeshire which is a top target for the LDs.
Three of the South West London seats, Battersea, Putney and Kensington are now tight 3 way marginals and could go in any direction.At the moment it looks as if the Tories may hold Putney and gain Kensington with Battersea too close to call but a few percentage points ether way could change all this.
And Wimbledon looks very interesting. Hammond has become a bit of a joke in the local media with his flip flopping and the LDs have a fairly high profile candidate (albeit for unusual reasons).
Yes but again which way do the Remainer voters go? Labour are clear second and held this seat twice in the Blair years so most likely scenario is Hammond holds on despite losing him and Labour both losing votes to the LDs.
I also make Conservatives favourites to hold on, but this is now a Con/LD fight. The historic areas of LD strength in the Merton council area are in the Wimbledon constituency and in the only by election this year the LDs took a Labour seat with a near 20% swing. This is a classic example of a London seat where the prevarication of Corbyn has taken Labour out of the game. But the swing to oust Hammond may be too high.
I don't view Swinson as a player but then it's a low bar across the field at the moment. I can't think of anything positive to say about her except she's a woman (not to be misinterpreted). I think this GE is all about leaders - the teams look even more useless than they do.
I can only see the current LD vote going backwards as the voters return to tribal loyalties as usual.
"If you look at the LD website (And I have, so you don’t have to) there really isn’t anything on there to tempt a right of centre voter.
They’re playing *solely* off the Revoke wicket to win any floaters. It’s People’s Vote online. Which makes me think they may put on an extra couple of dozen MPs where that sort of message really really resonates, but not much more than that.
Conversely, Boris needs to show a little big of leg on economic liberalism and fiscal conservatism and he should keep most in his tent."
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Are you not aware of right of centre remainers.....
The site seems very focussed on southern seats today. I hope everyone has had a bite of the Tories in Bishop Auckland, looks a simple enough gain and 5-6 is too big for them there.
I don't view Swinson as a player but then it's a low bar across the field at the moment. I can't think of anything positive to say about her except she's a woman (not to be misinterpreted). I think this GE is all about leaders - the teams look even more useless than they do.
I can only see the current LD vote going backwards as the voters return to tribal loyalties as usual.
If you look at the LD website (And I have, so you don’t have to) there really isn’t anything on there to tempt a right of centre voter.
They’re playing *solely* off the Revoke wicket to win any floaters. It’s People’s Vote online. Which makes me think they may put on an extra couple of dozen MPs where that sort of message really really resonates, but not much more than that.
Conversely, Boris needs to show a little big of leg on economic liberalism and fiscal conservatism and he should keep most in his tent.
You couldn't make it up really. Two tactical voting websites: one recommends voting LD in Kensington to keep the Tories out which has a Labour MP, and another one that recommends voting Labour in South Cambridgeshire which is a top target for the LDs.
Three of the South West London seats, Battersea, Putney and Kensington are now tight 3 way marginals and could go in any direction.At the moment it looks as if the Tories may hold Putney and gain Kensington with Battersea too close to call but a few percentage points ether way could change all this.
And Wimbledon looks very interesting. Hammond has become a bit of a joke in the local media with his flip flopping and the LDs have a fairly high profile candidate (albeit for unusual reasons).
Yes but again which way do the Remainer voters go? Labour are clear second and held this seat twice in the Blair years so most likely scenario is Hammond holds on despite losing him and Labour both losing votes to the LDs.
The only way to stop Brexit is by voting LD. That'll be a powerful message.
This kind of thing is why I believe there will be a big effort from the megadonors to strongly back a "Not-Warren" candidate if Biden stumbles. And that candidate may not be in the field yet.
Christ you're not another Hillary backer are you ?
I don't think it is impossible she gets pressured to join. They'll find someone to back even if it isn't her.
If Biden stumbles, she would be the last person to pick.
Yes, the Hillary idea is pure (and usually Republican) fantasy.
Who actually has a campaign, an organisation in place, and is now ahead of Biden in Iowa. And would probably make a rather good president.
Warren's attempts to out-Bernie Bernie can only be good for Mayor Pete. I would also like to remind everyone that his star is now rising in New Hampshire too.
He’s been a very lucky boy, I’m starting to think he has a genuine chance of the nomination, as opposed to an outrageously long shot.
Atlantic:
"Buttigieg makes this next point because it’s self-serving, but it also happens to be true: Each of the four Democratic presidents since World War II (not counting the two who took over for dead men) were young and inexperienced: John F. Kennedy, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, and Obama. Candidates who get called “presidential,” Republican or Democrat, tend not to become president at all."
Yes, I am, but it requires them to be motivated by Remain above everything else.
Much of the LD offering on climate change, public services, refugees and identity politics is simply business as usual.
Not all homeless Conservatives will be tempted by that.
Or perhaps they are simply not excited (or worse) by the Tories at present, looking for a protest vote and the obvious place to go is LD. Especially with it safe to do so as Corbyn so poor there is almost no chance of a Labour majority (and zero chance a Corbynite majority). Not all votes are based on positives.
I am not saying the LDs have the right manifesto, I would like to see a centrist but very radical and reforming manifesto.
You couldn't make it up really. Two tactical voting websites: one recommends voting LD in Kensington to keep the Tories out which has a Labour MP, and another one that recommends voting Labour in South Cambridgeshire which is a top target for the LDs.
Three of the South West London seats, Battersea, Putney and Kensington are now tight 3 way marginals and could go in any direction.At the moment it looks as if the Tories may hold Putney and gain Kensington with Battersea too close to call but a few percentage points ether way could change all this.
And Wimbledon looks very interesting. Hammond has become a bit of a joke in the local media with his flip flopping and the LDs have a fairly high profile candidate (albeit for unusual reasons).
Yes but again which way do the Remainer voters go? Labour are clear second and held this seat twice in the Blair years so most likely scenario is Hammond holds on despite losing him and Labour both losing votes to the LDs.
I also make Conservatives favourites to hold on, but this is now a Con/LD fight. The historic areas of LD strength in the Merton council area are in the Wimbledon constituency and in the only by election this year the LDs took a Labour seat with a near 20% swing. This is a classic example of a London seat where the prevarication of Corbyn has taken Labour out of the game. But the swing to oust Hammond may be too high.
Interesting.I did canvass for Roger Casale the then Labour MP back in 2001 and 2005 (when he lost) in the days when I still supported Labour.Labour were always strong in South Wimbledon and in the town but obviously got hammered up in the Village/around Wimbledon Common.
The site seems very focussed on southern seats today. I hope everyone has had a bite of the Tories in Bishop Auckland, looks a simple enough gain and 5-6 is too big for them there.
Sadly I think you are correct and my old patch will be turning blue.
Helen Goodman has made a number of gaffs over the years, so I don't think she can rely on a personal vote.
"How ironic if the Farage show ended up destroying Brexit altogether"
I would die laughing I suspect.
If Farage costs the Tories the majority it needs to implement Brexit, remainers should go full revoke. It'd be the second time Brexiteers have blocked Brexit and I don't see why everyone else should have to put up with it.
Comments
For example, it's recommending a LD vote in Kensington where Labour actually hold the seat, which seems a bit extreme to me, (where the result last time was Lab 42.2%, Con 42.1%, LD 12.2%).
I also think the slogan "LIBERAL DEMOCRATS - DEMAND BETTER" is a rather two-edged invocation....
Very narrow Tory hold I’m thinking.
Edit - see Flanner aleady pointed that out, sorry.
If you thought Brexit was a bad idea when you voted against it in 2016 then it is difficult to imagine it has become a good idea since. A Tory majority now is bad for the country. Sad to say it as I have supported the party pretty much all my adult life. I hope for another hung parliament, and an inevitable referendum to sort out the mess perhaps.
In practice I don't think anyone is going to be convinced that an incumbent can't win (short of personal scandal).
Anyway plenty of time for all sides to get on with making bar charts.
What a hustings....if that were televised I would watch it.
London swings will be bigger to the yellows but they're a long way off in all those except SW London.
My bet is on Tory hold.
I suspect the Golden Rule of Poll Ramping will apply: and this will be a whole new world of 'meh'. But we shall see!
I've seen lots of seats in the MRP where Brexit + Conservative = Leave - A Lot (about 18% here)
I said earlier that I thought that meant Labour was hanging onto more of its Leave voters than the Conservatives were hanging onto their Remain voters - but that doesn't tally with the YouGov analysis which finds the reverse.
Two possibilities.
1. Larger than thought swing to Remain hidden by converts forgetting how they voted in 2016.
2. The MRP underestimates the scale of the shellacking about to be experienced by Labour. (Note, it has Labour down to 186 without tactical voting).
I think that means Cruddas is in trouble.
I don't view Swinson as a player but then it's a low bar across the field at the moment. I can't think of anything positive to say about her except she's a woman (not to be misinterpreted). I think this GE is all about leaders - the teams look even more useless than they do.
I can only see the current LD vote going backwards as the voters return to tribal loyalties as usual.
Now, the LDs may will not get 17%. And the Conservatives may end up higher than 40. But that's the simple maths.
https://twitter.com/scotlandteam/status/1190269196300640256?s=21
If you look at the LD website (And I have, so you don’t have to) there really isn’t anything on there to tempt a right of centre voter.
They’re playing *solely* off the Revoke wicket to win any floaters. It’s People’s Vote online. Which makes me think they may put on an extra couple of dozen MPs where that sort of message really really resonates, but not much more than that.
Conversely, Boris needs to show a little big of leg on economic liberalism and fiscal conservatism and he should keep most in his tent.
🤣🤣
https://twitter.com/marcjwallace/status/1190278348368482305?s=21
We must be due some kind of wild anti-Semite rant on video from a shadow cabinet member tomorrow.
This election is characterised by the utter mediocrity of the leaders:
Boris is barely sentient pisshead who can barely string a sentence together without farting his vowels;
Corbo is a 1970s-style Marxist who is more interested in growing suspicious plants in his garden than running the country;
Tory Swinson has a shit, unfunny nickname that has proven unexpectedly durable.
Then there is Never Nigel Farage, who looks like a coked-up frog.
I’m starting to think he has a genuine chance of the nomination, as opposed to an outrageously long shot.
He didn’t like my extensive rebuttal.
https://getvoting.org/
I lost respect for him after the referendum when he switched to carping from the sidelines, and criticising rather than doing, whilst not having the integrity to stand behind what he said in the past.
I haven’t spoken to him since the referendum.
"How ironic if the Farage show ended up destroying Brexit altogether"
I would die laughing I suspect.
A Bozo government will eventually lose support, they all do and if Brexit proves to be a mess and we're still arguing about No Deal/FTA details two years down the line they could find themselves in a very useful situation indeed.
We don't know yet but Boris seems to be energising the Tory vote like Mrs T did. There is no doubt that Corbyn does the same with his vote. One problem Labour and the LDs have with Boris echoes their problem with Mrs T. They don't see the person who is there but they see a groteque charactature of some monster and they they act as if that perversion were the reality. I think some Tories do it with Corbyn.
But DYOR obviously.
It's the Reverse-Gammon Day strategy......
They’re playing *solely* off the Revoke wicket to win any floaters. It’s People’s Vote online. Which makes me think they may put on an extra couple of dozen MPs where that sort of message really really resonates, but not much more than that.
Conversely, Boris needs to show a little big of leg on economic liberalism and fiscal conservatism and he should keep most in his tent."
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Are you not aware of right of centre remainers.....
Yes, I am, but it requires them to be motivated by Remain above everything else.
Much of the LD offering on climate change, public services, refugees and identity politics is simply business as usual.
Not all homeless Conservatives will be tempted by that.
There are different assumptions you can make it it, I believe
They’re playing *solely* off the Revoke wicket to win any floaters. It’s People’s Vote online. Which makes me think they may put on an extra couple of dozen MPs where that sort of message really really resonates, but not much more than that.
Conversely, Boris needs to show a little big of leg on economic liberalism and fiscal conservatism and he should keep most in his tent.
Except you are not entirely objective.
I don't view Corbyn The only way to stop Brexit is by voting LD. That'll be a powerful message.
"Buttigieg makes this next point because it’s self-serving, but it also happens to be true: Each of the four Democratic presidents since World War II (not counting the two who took over for dead men) were young and inexperienced: John F. Kennedy, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, and Obama. Candidates who get called “presidential,” Republican or Democrat, tend not to become president at all."
If he is not then with such a high Brexit vote at the Euros I wonder if they might take enough votes to cost Labour the seat?
I am not saying the LDs have the right manifesto, I would like to see a centrist but very radical and reforming manifesto.
strong in South Wimbledon and in the town but obviously got hammered up in the Village/around Wimbledon Common.
Helen Goodman has made a number of gaffs over the years, so I don't think she can rely on a personal vote.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/01/nigel-farage-has-handed-hartlepool-to-labour-says-tory-chair