Depends how you think the SNP are going to do. Not as well as 2015 but better than 2017 seems the most likely to me. If so this is the sort of seat that they might pick up. Not saying its not a good bet but free money it isn't.
Lib Dem vote is up significantly from 2017. Lib Dems have crushed every election here since 2015. Their margin in the analogous Almond ward at the council elections was... overwhelming.
I cannot see them losing it outside a black swan.
In England they are getting a boost from being the anti Brexit party. In Scotland against the SNP this is much less of a factor and they risk losing tactically minded Tory leavers. Its the same reasoning as to why Swinson is not a shoo in. They probably will win barring an SNP surge but its not guaranteed.
Punters are judging Farage's strategy has reduced the chance of a majority Tory government.
Over-reaction from febrile punters. Tories still have a double-digit lead.
Indeed, however it does confirm that they need to maintain such a lead. Their buffer has reduced with Farage's action.
Very promising for Remain, very much keeps the pressure on Boris not to dip and means he has to focus on attacking Farage as much as Labour. Farage truly is a great asset to the remain cause, after his initial victory over them.
I went to see Any Questions one time in Exeter while a member of the Green Party. Should I have been barred? Was I not a member of the public as well as a member of a political party?
The BBC routinely ask local parties to supply audience members, so it's pretty much to be expected. What I'd suggest is that where a questioner asks something with an obvious party interest, the chair should ask if they're a member of a party. If they tell the truth, people can factor that in. If they lie and it comes out, that would be an own goal.
So BBC could supply 30 tickets to each party, organise the seating into party sections and everyone would know that the responder was part of x party. Trivial to arrange and far more honest.
I guess one question is, why aren't unaffiliated members of the public interested in having the opportunity to ask politicians a question on a show like that?
That seems insane. If there is a global 35% corporation tax why would companies like Google not just move their global headquarters to eg Ireland so that they're no longer American and no longer face the global tax?
And that would take away the taxes that Google etc currently pay to the USA and they'd pay a fraction of what they do now.
Because this will ignore where a headquarters is located I presume. Currently if a US corp doesn't bring it's foreign earning's 'on shore' it doesn't pay any USA tax on them. So moving the nameplate wouldn't change the USA tax take at all a it would still pay tax on the USA derived portion of it's earnings even if it was headquartered in Ireland.
No, not helpful. But will be more than compensated for when Dave Lee Travis comes out for the Cons - as he almost certainly will.
So, which party gets the most endorsements from Celebrity Sex Pests?
----
BTW, I have just got the third leaflet in 3 days from the LibDems -- this one bragging about putting out fires in the Amazon, sending a message to Trump, and action on climate change.
Every sentences is a polished gobbet of mush.
It must be personal, mustn't it? It is a campaign of coordinated harassment, probably headed by OllyT.
Is any other pb-er getting this much junk from the LibDems ?
Can I put it all in a big box and send it back to them at the end of the election without a stamp, so they have to pay to collect it. ?
A LibDem leaflet a day, and the campaign has not started ! By Dec 12th, I will have an impressive collection.
I went to see Any Questions one time in Exeter while a member of the Green Party. Should I have been barred? Was I not a member of the public as well as a member of a political party?
The BBC routinely ask local parties to supply audience members, so it's pretty much to be expected. What I'd suggest is that where a questioner asks something with an obvious party interest, the chair should ask if they're a member of a party. If they tell the truth, people can factor that in. If they lie and it comes out, that would be an own goal.
So BBC could supply 30 tickets to each party, organise the seating into party sections and everyone would know that the responder was part of x party. Trivial to arrange and far more honest.
I guess one question is, why aren't unaffiliated members of the public interested in having the opportunity to ask politicians a question on a show like that?
Depends how you think the SNP are going to do. Not as well as 2015 but better than 2017 seems the most likely to me. If so this is the sort of seat that they might pick up. Not saying its not a good bet but free money it isn't.
Lib Dem vote is up significantly from 2017. Lib Dems have crushed every election here since 2015. Their margin in the analogous Almond ward at the council elections was... overwhelming.
I cannot see them losing it outside a black swan.
In England they are getting a boost from being the anti Brexit party. In Scotland against the SNP this is much less of a factor and they risk losing tactically minded Tory leavers. Its the same reasoning as to why Swinson is not a shoo in. They probably will win barring an SNP surge but its not guaranteed.
Swinson has way more chance of losing her seat than the Lib Dems do of losing Ed West.
The Lib Dems would have got 3 councillors if they had stood 3 candidates. Their 2 candidates got elected in the first and 2nd round by a massive margin.
No, not helpful. But will be more than compensated for when Dave Lee Travis comes out for the Cons - as he almost certainly will.
So, which party gets the most endorsements from Celebrity Sex Pests?
----
BTW, I have just got the third leaflet in 3 days from the LibDems -- this one bragging about putting out fires in the Amazon, sending a message to Trump, and action on climate change.
Every sentences is a polished gobbet of mush.
It must be personal, mustn't it? It is a campaign of coordinated harassment, probably headed by OllyT.
Is any other pb-er getting this much junk from the LibDems ?
Can I put it all in a big box and send it back to them at the end of the election without a stamp, so they have to pay to collect it. ?
A LibDem leaflet a day, and the campaign has not started ! By Dec 12th, I will have an impressive collection.
There is some one on here who know who you are and has acquired a supply of Lib Dem Leaflets and is winding you up.
This kind of thing is why I believe there will be a big effort from the megadonors to strongly back a "Not-Warren" candidate if Biden stumbles. And that candidate may not be in the field yet.
Christ you're not another Hillary backer are you ?
I don't think it is impossible she gets pressured to join. They'll find someone to back even if it isn't her.
That seems insane. If there is a global 35% corporation tax why would companies like Google not just move their global headquarters to eg Ireland so that they're no longer American and no longer face the global tax?
And that would take away the taxes that Google etc currently pay to the USA and they'd pay a fraction of what they do now.
Because this will ignore where a headquarters is located I presume. Currently if a US corp doesn't bring it's foreign earning's 'on shore' it doesn't pay any USA tax on them. So moving the nameplate wouldn't change the USA tax take at all a it would still pay tax on the USA derived portion of it's earnings even if it was headquartered in Ireland.
But US corps do bring foreign earnings "on shore" eventually and after corporation tax was cut earlier in Congress a bumper amount was brought home and tax paid on it. If the nameplate moved from USA to Ireland then whenever global earnings were brought 'on shore' the taxes in the future would go to the Irish government not the American government.
Interestingly (just got a new computer, still using Chrome) the vanillacommunity [at which I write this] is showing up with a red triangle and 'not secure'. Not sure why.
It’s just a warning that @rcs1000 is spying one you, MD....
That seems insane. If there is a global 35% corporation tax why would companies like Google not just move their global headquarters to eg Ireland so that they're no longer American and no longer face the global tax?
And that would take away the taxes that Google etc currently pay to the USA and they'd pay a fraction of what they do now.
Because this will ignore where a headquarters is located I presume. Currently if a US corp doesn't bring it's foreign earning's 'on shore' it doesn't pay any USA tax on them. So moving the nameplate wouldn't change the USA tax take at all a it would still pay tax on the USA derived portion of it's earnings even if it was headquartered in Ireland.
I think the BEAT reforms have largely reversed this historic position - now US corps *are* taxed on their worldwide income, not just their remittances. This would make relocating sensible - it might make more sense to go for the UK, though, as it has a better CFC regime than Eire, and the difference in base corp tax rate is becoming ever smaller.
This kind of thing is why I believe there will be a big effort from the megadonors to strongly back a "Not-Warren" candidate if Biden stumbles. And that candidate may not be in the field yet.
Christ you're not another Hillary backer are you ?
I don't think it is impossible she gets pressured to join. They'll find someone to back even if it isn't her.
If Biden stumbles, she would be the last person to pick.
That seems insane. If there is a global 35% corporation tax why would companies like Google not just move their global headquarters to eg Ireland so that they're no longer American and no longer face the global tax?
And that would take away the taxes that Google etc currently pay to the USA and they'd pay a fraction of what they do now.
Because this will ignore where a headquarters is located I presume. Currently if a US corp doesn't bring it's foreign earning's 'on shore' it doesn't pay any USA tax on them. So moving the nameplate wouldn't change the USA tax take at all a it would still pay tax on the USA derived portion of it's earnings even if it was headquartered in Ireland.
I think the BEAT reforms have largely reversed this historic position - now US corps *are* taxed on their worldwide income, not just their remittances. This would make relocating sensible - it might make more sense to go for the UK, though, as it has a better CFC regime than Eire, and the difference in base corp tax rate is becoming ever smaller.
Would be fantastic for the Exchequer and would justify cutting corporation tax down to Eire levels to scoop such a coup.
That seems insane. If there is a global 35% corporation tax why would companies like Google not just move their global headquarters to eg Ireland so that they're no longer American and no longer face the global tax?
And that would take away the taxes that Google etc currently pay to the USA and they'd pay a fraction of what they do now.
a) exit charges can be messy so moving is sometimes expensive (not sure of the current state of that in the US) b) the people who run the company may be reluctant to live in Ireland c) head office location has an impact but if local subsidiary location CIT rates are higher it doesn’t make a difference.
That seems insane. If there is a global 35% corporation tax why would companies like Google not just move their global headquarters to eg Ireland so that they're no longer American and no longer face the global tax?
And that would take away the taxes that Google etc currently pay to the USA and they'd pay a fraction of what they do now.
a) exit charges can be messy so moving is sometimes expensive (not sure of the current state of that in the US) b) the people who run the company may be reluctant to live in Ireland c) head office location has an impact but if local subsidiary location CIT rates are higher it doesn’t make a difference.
It may be messy but 35% of global income is a lot of money!
First post, have been lurking for a while but cleaning the house has lost its appeal so time to pop up with some thoughts.
It strikes me that this election is likely to see lot of churn compared to 2017, so looking at 2017 as a starting point is not very helpful. Looking at the Euros may give us some clues, so thank you for sharing this, but it was a very different election with motivated extremes on a lower turnout than in a GE. So useful for identifying relative strengths particularly for LD in Remain areas, but it is just one source among many.
I think we also need to look back at different GE results, each of which can give us something useful. So - 2015 UKIP strength is likely to be mirrored in BXP today, especially as the vote share is very similar to current polling. But current polling for LDs is in the range 15-20 so we should look at anything from 1992 to 2010, and twiddle the knobs up or down a bit based on Leave/Remain.
But one thing I've read on here a few times is a lack of belief that the Conservatives can take many seats off Labour, because it is hard to spot where they might be. It's worth having a look at what happened last time there was a 5% swing from Lab to C - 2010. Labour lost 97 seats and the Tories gained 108. Although local factors may influence a few against the grain, I find it hard to believe that if current polling doesn't change much that Labour will receive anything other than a severe drubbing.
And looking back to another past GE, 1983, reminds us that Labour under Foot polled 28% with an equally left-wing manifesto. And Foot was a better leader and person than Corbyn, so 25% feels quite possible.
That seems insane. If there is a global 35% corporation tax why would companies like Google not just move their global headquarters to eg Ireland so that they're no longer American and no longer face the global tax?
And that would take away the taxes that Google etc currently pay to the USA and they'd pay a fraction of what they do now.
a) exit charges can be messy so moving is sometimes expensive (not sure of the current state of that in the US) b) the people who run the company may be reluctant to live in Ireland c) head office location has an impact but if local subsidiary location CIT rates are higher it doesn’t make a difference.
It may be messy but 35% of global income is a lot of money!
Depends if ‘messy’ = 35% of a multiple of global income.
Punters are judging Farage's strategy has reduced the chance of a majority Tory government.
Over-reaction from febrile punters. Tories still have a double-digit lead.
Indeed, however it does confirm that they need to maintain such a lead. Their buffer has reduced with Farage's action.
Very promising for Remain, very much keeps the pressure on Boris not to dip and means he has to focus on attacking Farage as much as Labour. Farage truly is a great asset to the remain cause, after his initial victory over them.
I am not sure.
Boris will make the case that a vote for anyone else may see Corbyn in No 10. The fear of Corbyn will trump (sorry) everything else is many voters minds, including brexit
meanwhile on twitter, some poor chap called Tim Walker is getting all sorts of brickbats for announcing he will be fighting Canterbury for the lib dems....
This kind of thing is why I believe there will be a big effort from the megadonors to strongly back a "Not-Warren" candidate if Biden stumbles. And that candidate may not be in the field yet.
Christ you're not another Hillary backer are you ?
I don't think it is impossible she gets pressured to join. They'll find someone to back even if it isn't her.
If Biden stumbles, she would be the last person to pick.
Yes, the Hillary idea is pure (and usually Republican) fantasy.
More on the government's naughty adverts targeting marginals. Boris accidentally forgot to flag them as concerning social issues, elections or politics.
Not flagging them also means they disappear from the Facebook Ad Library once they are no longer active - and that it is not possible to find out how much the government has spent on them.
Thankfully, the Montgomeryshire LibDems have found another Londoner to stand as a candidate in a rural Welsh seat.
(Another former Tory as well, the LibDems are heading rightwards.)
There is a substantial Plaid Cymru vote (~ 2,000) in the west of the county -- it was probably the only seat in Wales where the stupid PC/LibDem Remain-Alliance might actually have made a difference.
So, it is good to see the tin-brained LibDems chose a completely inappropriate candidate and blow it.
OT I am astonished by the South Cambs and South East Cambs numbers. Both of these are safe Tory seats, both of which I know well. I am tempted to believe these figures bear no indication of what will happen in a GE. If, on the other hand they are, the LDs are going to have a very good night!
OT I am astonished by the South Cambs and South East Cambs numbers. Both of these are safe Tory seats, both of which I know well. I am tempted to believe these figures bear no indication of what will happen in a GE. If, on the other hand they are, the LDs are going to have a very good night!
I do believe Heidi Allen saw internal polling and saw South Cambs was not winnable for the Lib Dems, if so you've got to wonder how they will achieve over 30 seats
Punters are judging Farage's strategy has reduced the chance of a majority Tory government.
Over-reaction from febrile punters. Tories still have a double-digit lead.
Indeed, however it does confirm that they need to maintain such a lead. Their buffer has reduced with Farage's action.
Very promising for Remain, very much keeps the pressure on Boris not to dip and means he has to focus on attacking Farage as much as Labour. Farage truly is a great asset to the remain cause, after his initial victory over them.
I am not sure.
Boris will make the case that a vote for anyone else may see Corbyn in No 10. The fear of Corbyn will trump (sorry) everything else is many voters minds, including brexit
Rather like 2017, Johnson might suffer from his polling being too good. Nobody believes Corbyn will end up in number 10, so they don’t feel motivated to prioritise stopping him over other things they care about.
Punters are judging Farage's strategy has reduced the chance of a majority Tory government.
Over-reaction from febrile punters. Tories still have a double-digit lead.
Indeed, however it does confirm that they need to maintain such a lead. Their buffer has reduced with Farage's action.
Very promising for Remain, very much keeps the pressure on Boris not to dip and means he has to focus on attacking Farage as much as Labour. Farage truly is a great asset to the remain cause, after his initial victory over them.
I am not sure.
Boris will make the case that a vote for anyone else may see Corbyn in No 10. The fear of Corbyn will trump (sorry) everything else is many voters minds, including brexit
In your dreams - Corbyn won’t win a majority as labour can’t now they’ve lost Scotland.
And no other party is going to support Corbyn. They would however support another Labour leader but no member of the story party.
It may take a few years for you to realize but the Tory party is no toxic unless they win a majority no one will support them
meanwhile on twitter, some poor chap called Tim Walker is getting all sorts of brickbats for announcing he will be fighting Canterbury for the lib dems....
Punters are judging Farage's strategy has reduced the chance of a majority Tory government.
Over-reaction from febrile punters. Tories still have a double-digit lead.
Indeed, however it does confirm that they need to maintain such a lead. Their buffer has reduced with Farage's action.
Very promising for Remain, very much keeps the pressure on Boris not to dip and means he has to focus on attacking Farage as much as Labour. Farage truly is a great asset to the remain cause, after his initial victory over them.
I am not sure.
Boris will make the case that a vote for anyone else may see Corbyn in No 10. The fear of Corbyn will trump (sorry) everything else is many voters minds, including brexit
Absolutely.
Additionally it is not hard to demonstrate that a vote for Brexit Party = No Brexit.
Tories were always realistically going to have to fight on this flank. With no WDA it would have been immeasurably more difficult - but only the hardest of hard Brexiteers will be willing to risk no Brexit in an all or nothing fight.
OT I am astonished by the South Cambs and South East Cambs numbers. Both of these are safe Tory seats, both of which I know well. I am tempted to believe these figures bear no indication of what will happen in a GE. If, on the other hand they are, the LDs are going to have a very good night!
Gina Miller's tactical voting website is recommending anti-Tory voters to vote Labour in both of those seats.
Punters are judging Farage's strategy has reduced the chance of a majority Tory government.
Over-reaction from febrile punters. Tories still have a double-digit lead.
Indeed, however it does confirm that they need to maintain such a lead. Their buffer has reduced with Farage's action.
Very promising for Remain, very much keeps the pressure on Boris not to dip and means he has to focus on attacking Farage as much as Labour. Farage truly is a great asset to the remain cause, after his initial victory over them.
I am not sure.
Boris will make the case that a vote for anyone else may see Corbyn in No 10. The fear of Corbyn will trump (sorry) everything else is many voters minds, including brexit
In your dreams - Corbyn won’t win a majority as labour can’t now they’ve lost Scotland.
And no other party is going to support Corbyn. They would however support another Labour leader but no member of the story party.
It may take a few years for you to realize but the Tory party is no toxic unless they win a majority no one will support them
You spent a squillion posts telling us there would be no election till 2022.
So your predictions can be safely placed in the folder marked "HYUFD, Rogerdamus & Co".
This kind of thing is why I believe there will be a big effort from the megadonors to strongly back a "Not-Warren" candidate if Biden stumbles. And that candidate may not be in the field yet.
Christ you're not another Hillary backer are you ?
I don't think it is impossible she gets pressured to join. They'll find someone to back even if it isn't her.
If Biden stumbles, she would be the last person to pick.
Yes, the Hillary idea is pure (and usually Republican) fantasy.
I don't buy into the idea that an accurate method of judging the potential Remain (or Leave) vote is to refer to constituency level estimates drawn from the 2019 Euros. Disentangling party votes from referendum preferences is fraught with difficulty, the turnout level was far below GE levels, protest votes were rife, and leave supporters who didn't like Trump's best mate didn't have any option that wouldn't be seen as an endorsement of May.
Surely the key resource to gauge the referendum VI is the set of official figures by Constituency issued by the HoC Library based on a combination of actual results for some constituencies and estimates (again by Dr Hanratty) for others.
That seems insane. If there is a global 35% corporation tax why would companies like Google not just move their global headquarters to eg Ireland so that they're no longer American and no longer face the global tax?
And that would take away the taxes that Google etc currently pay to the USA and they'd pay a fraction of what they do now.
a) exit charges can be messy so moving is sometimes expensive (not sure of the current state of that in the US) b) the people who run the company may be reluctant to live in Ireland c) head office location has an impact but if local subsidiary location CIT rates are higher it doesn’t make a difference.
It may be messy but 35% of global income is a lot of money!
That seems insane. If there is a global 35% corporation tax why would companies like Google not just move their global headquarters to eg Ireland so that they're no longer American and no longer face the global tax?
And that would take away the taxes that Google etc currently pay to the USA and they'd pay a fraction of what they do now.
a) exit charges can be messy so moving is sometimes expensive (not sure of the current state of that in the US) b) the people who run the company may be reluctant to live in Ireland c) head office location has an impact but if local subsidiary location CIT rates are higher it doesn’t make a difference.
It may be messy but 35% of global income is a lot of money!
Depends if ‘messy’ = 35% of a multiple of global income.
Given Warren will be wanting 35% of global income annually, it would have to be insanely messy for a company that can hire the world's best and most expensive accountants and lawyers to not be able to get through that mess and be better off.
OT I am astonished by the South Cambs and South East Cambs numbers. Both of these are safe Tory seats, both of which I know well. I am tempted to believe these figures bear no indication of what will happen in a GE. If, on the other hand they are, the LDs are going to have a very good night!
I do believe Heidi Allen saw internal polling and saw South Cambs was not winnable for the Lib Dems, if so you've got to wonder how they will achieve over 30 seats
The job of Swinson is to convince remain Tory leaning voters they will not support a Corbyn far left government. If she can do that then seats like Putney and Battersea are well within their reach.
I am not convinced a lot of voters have made their final decision. This will make polls choppy for a bit. As voters do decide I expect the Tory share to go down. The question is how far.
Has anyone seen anything on manifesto/policy launch timings yet?
Well at least Labour might stick to the official launch this time instead of leaking....ahem..having their manifesto “unknowingly” leaked on a Friday evening to the Telegraph.
That seems insane. If there is a global 35% corporation tax why would companies like Google not just move their global headquarters to eg Ireland so that they're no longer American and no longer face the global tax?
And that would take away the taxes that Google etc currently pay to the USA and they'd pay a fraction of what they do now.
a) exit charges can be messy so moving is sometimes expensive (not sure of the current state of that in the US) b) the people who run the company may be reluctant to live in Ireland c) head office location has an impact but if local subsidiary location CIT rates are higher it doesn’t make a difference.
It may be messy but 35% of global income is a lot of money!
OT I am astonished by the South Cambs and South East Cambs numbers. Both of these are safe Tory seats, both of which I know well. I am tempted to believe these figures bear no indication of what will happen in a GE. If, on the other hand they are, the LDs are going to have a very good night!
I do believe Heidi Allen saw internal polling and saw South Cambs was not winnable for the Lib Dems, if so you've got to wonder how they will achieve over 30 seats
The job of Swinson is to convince remain Tory leaning voters they will not support a Corbyn far left government. If she can do that then seats like Putney and Battersea are well within their reach.
I am not convinced a lot of voters have made their final decision. This will make polls choppy for a bit. As voters do decide I expect the Tory share to go down. The question is how far.
How can Swinson convince remain Tory leaning voters they will not support a Corbyn far left government, without spooking remain Labour leaning voters into thinking they will support a Johnson Tory government again?
Post 2010 the Lib Dems are still struggling to be able to look both ways.
Has anyone seen anything on manifesto/policy launch timings yet?
Well at least Labour might stick to the official launch this time instead of leaking....ahem..having their manifesto “unknowingly” leaked on a Friday evening to the Telegraph.
Heh. There is that. Week after next I guess.
I’m guessing:
- A green policy (banning fracking and stuff on animal welfare?), a workers rights policy (new holiday or something on paternity leave?), and something on home ownership from the Tories (alongside tax cuts, a boost to the NHS and schools as announced).
- Something around fiscal stability from labour, and maybe a counter intuited armed forces policy; as well as the usual.
For old time’s sake, maybe the LibDem will do the old “penny on income tax - we’ll tell you how we can afford it” line.
The big one for me is the Tories. We sort of know the shape of labour’s proposition. There’s space for Cummings to do something.
Very large Lib Dem shares in a number of the Surrey seats. Woking, Guildford, South West Surrey (Jeremy Hunt seat) and even Esher and Walton (Raab seat) the Lib Dems are polling between 35 and 40 per cent.
Other places like Winchester in Hampshire (well over 40 per cent LD share) look like nailed on Lib Dem gains.
It will be a huge surprise if the LDs do not win Guildford. Not only is it heavily remain, but Anne Milton has been consigned to the scrapheap by a local Conservative Party renowned locally for having been infiltrated by UKIP (and worse), and for numerous scandals (the best one being the mistress of the ex-council leader, who was also a councillor, being prosecuted for impersonating a barrister.
SW Surrey is safe Conservative. The more interesting local seats are Woking (which has had 3 players for a while) and Mole Valley, which saw a Conservative meltdown in May due to an MP regarded as useless even by his own party, and local planning issues which have alienated even rock solid Conservative villages (suggest building a new town next to them and you ask for trouble).
Winchester is a shoo in but the target of the LDs taking back Eastleigh (talked up elsewhere) looks much tougher.
Has anyone seen anything on manifesto/policy launch timings yet?
Well at least Labour might stick to the official launch this time instead of leaking....ahem..having their manifesto “unknowingly” leaked on a Friday evening to the Telegraph.
Heh. There is that. Week after next I guess.
I’m guessing:
- A green policy (banning fracking and stuff on animal welfare?), a workers rights policy (new holiday or something on paternity leave?), and something on home ownership from the Tories (alongside tax cuts, a boost to the NHS and schools as announced).
- Something around fiscal stability from labour, and maybe a counter intuited armed forces policy; as well as the usual.
For old time’s sake, maybe the LibDem will do the old “penny on income tax - we’ll tell you how we can afford it” line.
The big one for me is the Tories. We sort of know the shape of labour’s proposition. There’s space for Cummings to do something.
I’m expecting a belter of a manifesto from the Tories.
Those looking back to 2017 for reference points to assume a replay are going to be rather disappointed I think.
No, not helpful. But will be more than compensated for when Dave Lee Travis comes out for the Cons - as he almost certainly will.
So, which party gets the most endorsements from Celebrity Sex Pests?
----
BTW, I have just got the third leaflet in 3 days from the LibDems -- this one bragging about putting out fires in the Amazon, sending a message to Trump, and action on climate change.
Every sentences is a polished gobbet of mush.
It must be personal, mustn't it? It is a campaign of coordinated harassment, probably headed by OllyT.
Is any other pb-er getting this much junk from the LibDems ?
Can I put it all in a big box and send it back to them at the end of the election without a stamp, so they have to pay to collect it. ?
A LibDem leaflet a day, and the campaign has not started ! By Dec 12th, I will have an impressive collection.
Go on, you know you'll end up voting Lib Dem in the end!
OT I am astonished by the South Cambs and South East Cambs numbers. Both of these are safe Tory seats, both of which I know well. I am tempted to believe these figures bear no indication of what will happen in a GE. If, on the other hand they are, the LDs are going to have a very good night!
I do believe Heidi Allen saw internal polling and saw South Cambs was not winnable for the Lib Dems, if so you've got to wonder how they will achieve over 30 seats
The job of Swinson is to convince remain Tory leaning voters they will not support a Corbyn far left government. If she can do that then seats like Putney and Battersea are well within their reach.
I am not convinced a lot of voters have made their final decision. This will make polls choppy for a bit. As voters do decide I expect the Tory share to go down. The question is how far.
How can Swinson convince remain Tory leaning voters they will not support a Corbyn far left government, without spooking remain Labour leaning voters into thinking they will support a Johnson Tory government again?
Post 2010 the Lib Dems are still struggling to be able to look both ways.
I don't think the LibDems themselves have a particular problem. Other people have different perceptions though. IIRC the maths were against co-operating with Gordon Brown in 2010.
This kind of thing is why I believe there will be a big effort from the megadonors to strongly back a "Not-Warren" candidate if Biden stumbles. And that candidate may not be in the field yet.
Christ you're not another Hillary backer are you ?
I don't think it is impossible she gets pressured to join. They'll find someone to back even if it isn't her.
If Biden stumbles, she would be the last person to pick.
Yes, the Hillary idea is pure (and usually Republican) fantasy.
OT I am astonished by the South Cambs and South East Cambs numbers. Both of these are safe Tory seats, both of which I know well. I am tempted to believe these figures bear no indication of what will happen in a GE. If, on the other hand they are, the LDs are going to have a very good night!
Gina Miller's tactical voting website is recommending anti-Tory voters to vote Labour in both of those seats.
That seems insane. If there is a global 35% corporation tax why would companies like Google not just move their global headquarters to eg Ireland so that they're no longer American and no longer face the global tax?
And that would take away the taxes that Google etc currently pay to the USA and they'd pay a fraction of what they do now.
a) exit charges can be messy so moving is sometimes expensive (not sure of the current state of that in the US) b) the people who run the company may be reluctant to live in Ireland c) head office location has an impact but if local subsidiary location CIT rates are higher it doesn’t make a difference.
It may be messy but 35% of global income is a lot of money!
Depends if ‘messy’ = 35% of a multiple of global income.
Given Warren will be wanting 35% of global income annually, it would have to be insanely messy for a company that can hire the world's best and most expensive accountants and lawyers to not be able to get through that mess and be better off.
Ok, but simplistically, an exit charge is generally going to be calculated on asset value. Asset value will generally be a multiple of earnings. So the comparison is paying x dollars each year, or a multiple of x dollars once. (Spoiler: it’s not really like that once you take into account different rates and reliefs)
Hiring the best accountants is a given, and no reason to think it mitigates one type of tax exposure more than any other - so that doesn’t really help choose between the options.
OT I am astonished by the South Cambs and South East Cambs numbers. Both of these are safe Tory seats, both of which I know well. I am tempted to believe these figures bear no indication of what will happen in a GE. If, on the other hand they are, the LDs are going to have a very good night!
I do believe Heidi Allen saw internal polling and saw South Cambs was not winnable for the Lib Dems, if so you've got to wonder how they will achieve over 30 seats
I wouldn't say I know her, but I have met her. She was a highly impressive individual, and while she might be loathed by the more vitriolic leavers (which must say something in her favour), she is a great loss to politics. From what I know of the area, I can tell you that your belief is very very wide of the mark. Her reason for standing down is some leave w****** extremist threatened her and her family, and she finally had enough. The LDs will very likely take/hold South Cambs, which considering until recently it was a very safe seat (used to be Andrew Lansley's seat) should be very worrying for all Bozo fans.
Punters are judging Farage's strategy has reduced the chance of a majority Tory government.
Over-reaction from febrile punters. Tories still have a double-digit lead.
Indeed, however it does confirm that they need to maintain such a lead. Their buffer has reduced with Farage's action.
Very promising for Remain, very much keeps the pressure on Boris not to dip and means he has to focus on attacking Farage as much as Labour. Farage truly is a great asset to the remain cause, after his initial victory over them.
I am not sure.
Boris will make the case that a vote for anyone else may see Corbyn in No 10. The fear of Corbyn will trump (sorry) everything else is many voters minds, including brexit
In your dreams - Corbyn won’t win a majority as labour can’t now they’ve lost Scotland.
And no other party is going to support Corbyn. They would however support another Labour leader but no member of the story party.
It may take a few years for you to realize but the Tory party is no toxic unless they win a majority no one will support them
If Boris wins a majority why at my age will I be concerned about the next election
meanwhile on twitter, some poor chap called Tim Walker is getting all sorts of brickbats for announcing he will be fighting Canterbury for the lib dems....
Con gain
I agree. Labour will do better than elsewhere in Canterbury but they're only defending a majority of 187 votes.
OT I am astonished by the South Cambs and South East Cambs numbers. Both of these are safe Tory seats, both of which I know well. I am tempted to believe these figures bear no indication of what will happen in a GE. If, on the other hand they are, the LDs are going to have a very good night!
I do believe Heidi Allen saw internal polling and saw South Cambs was not winnable for the Lib Dems, if so you've got to wonder how they will achieve over 30 seats
The job of Swinson is to convince remain Tory leaning voters they will not support a Corbyn far left government. If she can do that then seats like Putney and Battersea are well within their reach.
I am not convinced a lot of voters have made their final decision. This will make polls choppy for a bit. As voters do decide I expect the Tory share to go down. The question is how far.
How can Swinson convince remain Tory leaning voters they will not support a Corbyn far left government, without spooking remain Labour leaning voters into thinking they will support a Johnson Tory government again?
Post 2010 the Lib Dems are still struggling to be able to look both ways.
it is a difficult balancing act I grant you. The way I look at is that I would rather have a Bozo government than a Mr. Thicky one, but I will take the chance and vote LD as a protest at the direction both main parties have taken. Last election I chickened out at the last minute and voted Tory, but at that time TMay was in charge, who in spite of her faults was not the lying little toad that is now Tory leader.
Punters are judging Farage's strategy has reduced the chance of a majority Tory government.
Over-reaction from febrile punters. Tories still have a double-digit lead.
Indeed, however it does confirm that they need to maintain such a lead. Their buffer has reduced with Farage's action.
Very promising for Remain, very much keeps the pressure on Boris not to dip and means he has to focus on attacking Farage as much as Labour. Farage truly is a great asset to the remain cause, after his initial victory over them.
I am not sure.
Boris will make the case that a vote for anyone else may see Corbyn in No 10. The fear of Corbyn will trump (sorry) everything else is many voters minds, including brexit
Rather like 2017, Johnson might suffer from his polling being too good. Nobody believes Corbyn will end up in number 10, so they don’t feel motivated to prioritise stopping him over other things they care about.
That is also a possibility but it is just the situation that could let Corbyn in
@Richard_Nabavi OK I'm risking £40 on Newbury. Hopefully it's a cheap tenner.
Probably a solid wager but I just don’t understand the appeal of bets like these. Betting so short you have to risk four times your potential profit to win a meaningless amount of money. A tenner buys two pints down here.
@Richard_Nabavi OK I'm risking £40 on Newbury. Hopefully it's a cheap tenner.
Probably a solid wager but I just don’t understand the appeal of bets like these. Betting so short you have to risk four times your potential profit to win a meaningless amount of money. A tenner buys two pints down here.
Punters are judging Farage's strategy has reduced the chance of a majority Tory government.
Over-reaction from febrile punters. Tories still have a double-digit lead.
Indeed, however it does confirm that they need to maintain such a lead. Their buffer has reduced with Farage's action.
Very promising for Remain, very much keeps the pressure on Boris not to dip and means he has to focus on attacking Farage as much as Labour. Farage truly is a great asset to the remain cause, after his initial victory over them.
I am not sure.
Boris will make the case that a vote for anyone else may see Corbyn in No 10. The fear of Corbyn will trump (sorry) everything else is many voters minds, including brexit
In your dreams - Corbyn won’t win a majority as labour can’t now they’ve lost Scotland.
And no other party is going to support Corbyn. They would however support another Labour leader but no member of the story party.
It may take a few years for you to realize but the Tory party is no toxic unless they win a majority no one will support them
If Boris wins a majority why at my age will I be concerned about the next election
I guess a lot of people thought that when they voted leave. The answer is: young people. I am sure you have some concern for them?
meanwhile on twitter, some poor chap called Tim Walker is getting all sorts of brickbats for announcing he will be fighting Canterbury for the lib dems....
Con gain
I agree. Labour will do better than elsewhere in Canterbury but they're only defending a majority of 187 votes.
meanwhile on twitter, some poor chap called Tim Walker is getting all sorts of brickbats for announcing he will be fighting Canterbury for the lib dems....
Con gain
I agree. Labour will do better than elsewhere in Canterbury but they're only defending a majority of 187 votes.
OT I am astonished by the South Cambs and South East Cambs numbers. Both of these are safe Tory seats, both of which I know well. I am tempted to believe these figures bear no indication of what will happen in a GE. If, on the other hand they are, the LDs are going to have a very good night!
I do believe Heidi Allen saw internal polling and saw South Cambs was not winnable for the Lib Dems, if so you've got to wonder how they will achieve over 30 seats
The job of Swinson is to convince remain Tory leaning voters they will not support a Corbyn far left government. If she can do that then seats like Putney and Battersea are well within their reach.
I am not convinced a lot of voters have made their final decision. This will make polls choppy for a bit. As voters do decide I expect the Tory share to go down. The question is how far.
How can Swinson convince remain Tory leaning voters they will not support a Corbyn far left government, without spooking remain Labour leaning voters into thinking they will support a Johnson Tory government again?
Post 2010 the Lib Dems are still struggling to be able to look both ways.
It's simple enough. Swinson has repeatedly stated that she believes neither Johnson or Corbyn are fit to hold the office of Prime Minister. I expect that in the event of a hung parliament the parliamentary Lib Dem party will vote on a case by case and issue by issue basis. I don't think it's a very difficult thing to explain to the voters.
Punters are judging Farage's strategy has reduced the chance of a majority Tory government.
Over-reaction from febrile punters. Tories still have a double-digit lead.
Indeed, however it does confirm that they need to maintain such a lead. Their buffer has reduced with Farage's action.
Very promising for Remain, very much keeps the pressure on Boris not to dip and means he has to focus on attacking Farage as much as Labour. Farage truly is a great asset to the remain cause, after his initial victory over them.
I am not sure.
Boris will make the case that a vote for anyone else may see Corbyn in No 10. The fear of Corbyn will trump (sorry) everything else is many voters minds, including brexit
Rather like 2017, Johnson might suffer from his polling being too good. Nobody believes Corbyn will end up in number 10, so they don’t feel motivated to prioritise stopping him over other things they care about.
That is also a possibility but it is just the situation that could let Corbyn in
I think that’s the hope. Personally I don’t see it - rightly or wrongly, Swinson looks to prefer a Johnson minority administration to a time-limited deal with Corbyn to block Brexit, and its hard to imagine Labour going from here to anywhere near outright majority.
@Richard_Nabavi OK I'm risking £40 on Newbury. Hopefully it's a cheap tenner.
Probably a solid wager but I just don’t understand the appeal of bets like these. Betting so short you have to risk four times your potential profit to win a meaningless amount of money. A tenner buys two pints down here.
Well I'd like to bet more than I'm allowed, but typically for a GE I build up a portfolio of thirty or forty bets on various parties. They act as a natural hedge against each other if you get it right.
I think Sturgeon making such a big thing about IndyRef2 is really smart politics.
It creates an ideological dividing line with the Liberal Democrats that is otherwise put at risk by co-operation over resisting Brexit.
If the SNP win big she has a democratic mandate for another referendum.
If the SNP fall short she can use the failure to argue with the SNP ultras that she needs to soft pedal on Independence for the next Holyrood elections (in 2021).
She gets to test out how responsive Scottish voters are to the case for Independence now at an election that's less important to the SNP than those for Holyrood.
OT I am astonished by the South Cambs and South East Cambs numbers. Both of these are safe Tory seats, both of which I know well. I am tempted to believe these figures bear no indication of what will happen in a GE. If, on the other hand they are, the LDs are going to have a very good night!
I do believe Heidi Allen saw internal polling and saw South Cambs was not winnable for the Lib Dems, if so you've got to wonder how they will achieve over 30 seats
The job of Swinson is to convince remain Tory leaning voters they will not support a Corbyn far left government. If she can do that then seats like Putney and Battersea are well within their reach.
I am not convinced a lot of voters have made their final decision. This will make polls choppy for a bit. As voters do decide I expect the Tory share to go down. The question is how far.
How can Swinson convince remain Tory leaning voters they will not support a Corbyn far left government, without spooking remain Labour leaning voters into thinking they will support a Johnson Tory government again?
Post 2010 the Lib Dems are still struggling to be able to look both ways.
It's simple enough. Swinson has repeatedly stated that she believes neither Johnson or Corbyn are fit to hold the office of Prime Minister. I expect that in the event of a hung parliament the parliamentary Lib Dem party will vote on a case by case and issue by issue basis. I don't think it's a very difficult thing to explain to the voters.
Or help to influence a Corbyn replacement. The LDs will not be able to go into a coalition with Tories. The Tory Party has very few people even Orange Book LDs have anything in common with. If the Tory party cannot get a majority it is a busted flush for years
Punters are judging Farage's strategy has reduced the chance of a majority Tory government.
Over-reaction from febrile punters. Tories still have a double-digit lead.
Indeed, however it does confirm that they need to maintain such a lead. Their buffer has reduced with Farage's action.
Very promising for Remain, very much keeps the pressure on Boris not to dip and means he has to focus on attacking Farage as much as Labour. Farage truly is a great asset to the remain cause, after his initial victory over them.
I am not sure.
Boris will make the case that a vote for anyone else may see Corbyn in No 10. The fear of Corbyn will trump (sorry) everything else is many voters minds, including brexit
In your dreams - Corbyn won’t win a majority as labour can’t now they’ve lost Scotland.
And no other party is going to support Corbyn. They would however support another Labour leader but no member of the story party.
It may take a few years for you to realize but the Tory party is no toxic unless they win a majority no one will support them
If Boris wins a majority why at my age will I be concerned about the next election
I guess a lot of people thought that when they voted leave. The answer is: young people. I am sure you have some concern for them?
I do absolutely and I want to see fracking stopped, a green policy that is sensible and achievable, animal welfare, better bus access especially in rural areas, and lots of emphasis on technical education and apprentices rather than everyone must go to university mantra of Blair.
While I support Boris now the reason is that he has achieved a deal that will see us leave the EU by the 31st January. I voted remain but this act of leaving just has to happen for democracy sake and the idea you can just revoke the whole idea leaves me with utter dread
Furthermore I have no interest in a Trump deal but I cannot see him lasting longer than Nov 2020 and it will be about that time we should be in deep trade talks and hopefully with a less toxic individual than Trump
I think Sturgeon making such a big thing about IndyRef2 is really smart politics.
It creates an ideological dividing line with the Liberal Democrats that is otherwise put at risk by co-operation over resisting Brexit.
If the SNP win big she has a democratic mandate for another referendum.
If the SNP fall short she can use the failure to argue with the SNP ultras that she needs to soft pedal on Independence for the next Holyrood elections (in 2021).
She gets to test out how responsive Scottish voters are to the case for Independence now at an election that's less important to the SNP than those for Holyrood.
The last 2 Westminster Elections Sturgeon and the SNP went to huge pains to say that they were not about Independence. Independence was a matter for Holyrood, Westminster elections were about Scotland within the UK.
This time it is different, I don't think it it a clever, consequence free approach. This is a vital step to securing a 2020 IndyRef.
OT I am astonished by the South Cambs and South East Cambs numbers. Both of these are safe Tory seats, both of which I know well. I am tempted to believe these figures bear no indication of what will happen in a GE. If, on the other hand they are, the LDs are going to have a very good night!
I do believe Heidi Allen saw internal polling and saw South Cambs was not winnable for the Lib Dems, if so you've got to wonder how they will achieve over 30 seats
The job of Swinson is to convince remain Tory leaning voters they will not support a Corbyn far left government. If she can do that then seats like Putney and Battersea are well within their reach.
I am not convinced a lot of voters have made their final decision. This will make polls choppy for a bit. As voters do decide I expect the Tory share to go down. The question is how far.
How can Swinson convince remain Tory leaning voters they will not support a Corbyn far left government, without spooking remain Labour leaning voters into thinking they will support a Johnson Tory government again?
Post 2010 the Lib Dems are still struggling to be able to look both ways.
It's simple enough. Swinson has repeatedly stated that she believes neither Johnson or Corbyn are fit to hold the office of Prime Minister. I expect that in the event of a hung parliament the parliamentary Lib Dem party will vote on a case by case and issue by issue basis. I don't think it's a very difficult thing to explain to the voters.
Or help to influence a Corbyn replacement. The LDs will not be able to go into a coalition with Tories. The Tory Party has very few people even Orange Book LDs have anything in common with. If the Tory party cannot get a majority it is a busted flush for years
I think the DUP will lend a (particularly torturous) confidence and supply again to the Tories. Johnson might prefer opposition to their support but I think he'll get it nonetheless. 315-320 Tory MPs gets us right back to where we were before the election at which point - and I'm not a fan - a referendum on Johnson's deal becomes the ONLY way to move on. That or 5 years of deadlock/a possible no deal exit.
But Get Voting (https://getvoting.org), which is focused on the Leave/Remain issue - and uses 40,000 recent interviews - claims the LDs will win both of these seats.
Miller's site, though, merely churns out the results of the 2017 GE as if nothing's changed in the past two and a half years. She really should stick to launching court cases
One of the most interest constituency bets is Dagenham & Rainham. Shadsy has it as 1.83 for each of Labour (Jon Cruddas) and the Conservatives. It's a very Brexity place, so a lot may depend on whether the BXP nicks votes off the Tories (or off Labour for that matter). There's a highish ethnic minority population. It's not a LibDemish kind of seat.
But Get Voting (https://getvoting.org), which is focused on the Leave/Remain issue - and uses 40,000 recent interviews - claims the LDs will win both of these seats.
This is a good site for checking constituency bets I think.
OT I am astonished by the South Cambs and South East Cambs numbers. Both of these are safe Tory seats, both of which I know well. I am tempted to believe these figures bear no indication of what will happen in a GE. If, on the other hand they are, the LDs are going to have a very good night!
I do believe Heidi Allen saw internal polling and saw South Cambs was not winnable for the Lib Dems, if so you've got to wonder how they will achieve over 30 seats
The job of Swinson is to convince remain Tory leaning voters they will not support a Corbyn far left government. If she can do that then seats like Putney and Battersea are well within their reach.
I am not convinced a lot of voters have made their final decision. This will make polls choppy for a bit. As voters do decide I expect the Tory share to go down. The question is how far.
How can Swinson convince remain Tory leaning voters they will not support a Corbyn far left government, without spooking remain Labour leaning voters into thinking they will support a Johnson Tory government again?
Post 2010 the Lib Dems are still struggling to be able to look both ways.
It's simple enough. Swinson has repeatedly stated that she believes neither Johnson or Corbyn are fit to hold the office of Prime Minister. I expect that in the event of a hung parliament the parliamentary Lib Dem party will vote on a case by case and issue by issue basis. I don't think it's a very difficult thing to explain to the voters.
Or help to influence a Corbyn replacement. The LDs will not be able to go into a coalition with Tories. The Tory Party has very few people even Orange Book LDs have anything in common with. If the Tory party cannot get a majority it is a busted flush for years
Yes, I'm an Orange Book type myself and I agree with that. The Conservatives have either lost or kicked out all of the people that we could work with. Of course that might be true of Labour too now.
I think Sturgeon making such a big thing about IndyRef2 is really smart politics.
It creates an ideological dividing line with the Liberal Democrats that is otherwise put at risk by co-operation over resisting Brexit.
If the SNP win big she has a democratic mandate for another referendum.
If the SNP fall short she can use the failure to argue with the SNP ultras that she needs to soft pedal on Independence for the next Holyrood elections (in 2021).
She gets to test out how responsive Scottish voters are to the case for Independence now at an election that's less important to the SNP than those for Holyrood.
It could just let a few Scons hold their seats as this will descend into an Independence v Union election and I expect in the fishing communities in NE Scotland they will not support Sturgeon's obsession with Independence
Personally I think it is a tactical mistake and no need for it at this stage
But Get Voting (https://getvoting.org), which is focused on the Leave/Remain issue - and uses 40,000 recent interviews - claims the LDs will win both of these seats.
This is a good site for checking constituency bets I think.
Agreed, although a bit out of date. Also they assume no BXP -> Con tactical voting, which may be a dubious assumption.
(For Dagenham & Rainham, they show Lab and Con neck-and-neck with no tactical voting, but with a 20% BXP vote).
One of the most interest constituency bets is Dagenham & Rainham. Shadsy has it as 1.83 for each of Labour (Jon Cruddas) and the Conservatives. It's a very Brexity place, so a lot may depend on whether the BXP nicks votes off the Tories (or off Labour for that matter). There's a highish ethnic minority population. It's not a LibDemish kind of seat.
Punters are judging Farage's strategy has reduced the chance of a majority Tory government.
Over-reaction from febrile punters. Tories still have a double-digit lead.
Indeed, however it does confirm that they need to maintain such a lead. Their buffer has reduced with Farage's action.
Very promising for Remain, very much keeps the pressure on Boris not to dip and means he has to focus on attacking Farage as much as Labour. Farage truly is a great asset to the remain cause, after his initial victory over them.
I am not sure.
Boris will make the case that a vote for anyone else may see Corbyn in No 10. The fear of Corbyn will trump (sorry) everything else is many voters minds, including brexit
Rather like 2017, Johnson might suffer from his polling being too good. Nobody believes Corbyn will end up in number 10, so they don’t feel motivated to prioritise stopping him over other things they care about.
That is also a possibility but it is just the situation that could let Corbyn in
I think that’s the hope. Personally I don’t see it - rightly or wrongly, Swinson looks to prefer a Johnson minority administration to a time-limited deal with Corbyn to block Brexit, and its hard to imagine Labour going from here to anywhere near outright majority.
Agreed. I think the "vote LD and let in Corbyn" will lack the potency it once had. It caused me to vote Tory last time. It might change if Corbyn suddenly has an opinion poll surge, but I can't see it. A Corbyn majority is more scary than a Bozo one, but I just can't see it happening, and I don't think even Corbyn's very small brain imagines it can either. Minority government is the best outcome at the moment until the two main parties get their tails to stop wagging the dog.
Comments
Very promising for Remain, very much keeps the pressure on Boris not to dip and means he has to focus on attacking Farage as much as Labour. Farage truly is a great asset to the remain cause, after his initial victory over them.
The Lib Dems would have got 3 councillors if they had stood 3 candidates. Their 2 candidates got elected in the first and 2nd round by a massive margin.
b) the people who run the company may be reluctant to live in Ireland
c) head office location has an impact but if local subsidiary location CIT rates are higher it doesn’t make a difference.
Welcome to PB PJH
Boris will make the case that a vote for anyone else may see Corbyn in No 10.
The fear of Corbyn will trump (sorry) everything else is many voters minds, including brexit
Instead, step forward Pete Buttigieg:
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/11/pete-buttigieg-2020-next-phase/601237/
Who actually has a campaign, an organisation in place, and is now ahead of Biden in Iowa.
And would probably make a rather good president.
More on the government's naughty adverts targeting marginals. Boris accidentally forgot to flag them as concerning social issues, elections or politics.
Not flagging them also means they disappear from the Facebook Ad Library once they are no longer active - and that it is not possible to find out how much the government has spent on them.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50263197
(Another former Tory as well, the LibDems are heading rightwards.)
There is a substantial Plaid Cymru vote (~ 2,000) in the west of the county -- it was probably the only seat in Wales where the stupid PC/LibDem Remain-Alliance might actually have made a difference.
So, it is good to see the tin-brained LibDems chose a completely inappropriate candidate and blow it.
And no other party is going to support Corbyn. They would however support another Labour leader but no member of the story party.
It may take a few years for you to realize but the Tory party is no toxic unless they win a majority no one will support them
Additionally it is not hard to demonstrate that a vote for Brexit Party = No Brexit.
Tories were always realistically going to have to fight on this flank. With no WDA it would have been immeasurably more difficult - but only the hardest of hard Brexiteers will be willing to risk no Brexit in an all or nothing fight.
Understandable, really.
https://tactical.vote/all
So your predictions can be safely placed in the folder marked "HYUFD, Rogerdamus & Co".
I don't buy into the idea that an accurate method of judging the potential Remain (or Leave) vote is to refer to constituency level estimates drawn from the 2019 Euros. Disentangling party votes from referendum preferences is fraught with difficulty, the turnout level was far below GE levels, protest votes were rife, and leave supporters who didn't like Trump's best mate didn't have any option that wouldn't be seen as an endorsement of May.
Surely the key resource to gauge the referendum VI is the set of official figures by Constituency issued by the HoC Library based on a combination of actual results for some constituencies and estimates (again by Dr Hanratty) for others.
Available here:
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/parliament-and-elections/elections-elections/brexit-votes-by-constituency/
I am not convinced a lot of voters have made their final decision. This will make polls choppy for a bit. As voters do decide I expect the Tory share to go down. The question is how far.
Post 2010 the Lib Dems are still struggling to be able to look both ways.
I’m guessing:
- A green policy (banning fracking and stuff on animal welfare?), a workers rights policy (new holiday or something on paternity leave?), and something on home ownership from the Tories (alongside tax cuts, a boost to the NHS and schools as announced).
- Something around fiscal stability from labour, and maybe a counter intuited armed forces policy; as well as the usual.
For old time’s sake, maybe the LibDem will do the old “penny on income tax - we’ll tell you how we can afford it” line.
The big one for me is the Tories. We sort of know the shape of labour’s proposition. There’s space for Cummings to do something.
https://meetings.eastleigh.gov.uk/mgMemberIndex.aspx?FN=PARTY&VW=LIST&PIC=0
Pitch economically to the right of the Tories.
Those looking back to 2017 for reference points to assume a replay are going to be rather disappointed I think.
IIRC the maths were against co-operating with Gordon Brown in 2010.
FWIW, I think that’s both simplistic and wrong.
Hiring the best accountants is a given, and no reason to think it mitigates one type of tax exposure more than any other - so that doesn’t really help choose between the options.
Though I hope you’re one of this with nothing to hide, so nothing to fear ... ?
https://twitter.com/bellacaledonia/status/1190274529467211776?s=20
It creates an ideological dividing line with the Liberal Democrats that is otherwise put at risk by co-operation over resisting Brexit.
If the SNP win big she has a democratic mandate for another referendum.
If the SNP fall short she can use the failure to argue with the SNP ultras that she needs to soft pedal on Independence for the next Holyrood elections (in 2021).
She gets to test out how responsive Scottish voters are to the case for Independence now at an election that's less important to the SNP than those for Holyrood.
While I support Boris now the reason is that he has achieved a deal that will see us leave the EU by the 31st January. I voted remain but this act of leaving just has to happen for democracy sake and the idea you can just revoke the whole idea leaves me with utter dread
Furthermore I have no interest in a Trump deal but I cannot see him lasting longer than Nov 2020 and it will be about that time we should be in deep trade talks and hopefully with a less toxic individual than Trump
This time it is different, I don't think it it a clever, consequence free approach. This is a vital step to securing a 2020 IndyRef.
Johnson might prefer opposition to their support but I think he'll get it nonetheless.
315-320 Tory MPs gets us right back to where we were before the election at which point - and I'm not a fan - a referendum on Johnson's deal becomes the ONLY way to move on. That or 5 years of deadlock/a possible no deal exit.
Miller's site, though, merely churns out the results of the 2017 GE as if nothing's changed in the past two and a half years. She really should stick to launching court cases
Thoughts?
Personally I think it is a tactical mistake and no need for it at this stage
(For Dagenham & Rainham, they show Lab and Con neck-and-neck with no tactical voting, but with a 20% BXP vote).