" Senior rabbi takes unprecedented step of writing to urge congregants to vote tactically against LAB "
And the Lord said unto Moses Vote for Boris Johnson who went forth and multiplied and begat several children to many different women. 'It is the will of the the Lord' said Rabbi Johnathan Romain.
I don't believe a lot of those seat changes from Rentoul's Electoral Calculus map.
In Warrington which I know well I would hope the Tories would regain Warrington South which is a swing seat lost in 2017, but Warrington North is a very safe Labour seat. The prediction is for the Tories to gain it, it just does not seem plausible to me.
No chicken counting but I would definitely take that result! And that's with Scotland separate too . . .
In 2017 one reason for the Labour surge must have been the feeling that May was sure to get a majority so it was safe to vote Labour. Is the same thing going to happen this time?
I don't know where those figures are coming from, but I simply do not believe that a 10.5% Tory-Lab lead will result in the Tories winning 5 fewer seats than they did in 2017!
Those polling figures are not far off 2015 besides the Lib Dems but with a bigger Tory lead over Labour, yet supposedly Tories will win 18 fewer than they did in 2015 while Labor will win 10 fewer than they did in 2015? That makes no sense!
Tories win 19 seats off Labour but lose seats to SNP and LDs.
The 4% swing from Labour to the Tories you have actually sees the Tories gain 38 Labour seats on UNS, not 19
I use 80% UNS and 20% multiplicative. UNS has the problem that it is uniform. It adds the same share to every constituency. The multiplicative multiplies the share recognising that the absolute increase in share is likely to be higher where the original share is higher. So that's one difference. There are also tactical voting differences (reduces Tory gains from Labour by 8 seats) and allocation of the green share. It's matching quite well with the individual constituency polls but they are small samples so not much comfort.
Electoral calculus is quite crude.
What happens if Brexit Party aren't standing on Labour vs Tory marginal? I find it hard to believe Tories wouldn't benefit from that.
kinabalu said: "I'm a member and will probably vote for Laura Pidcock if she stands."
Thanks for that - interesting. I had her down as one of the less credible candidates! Do you know whether the hard left still have a stranglehold on membership - like they did when they elected Corbyn?
It depends what you mean by 'hard left'. If you mean people who would rather vote for a candidate with Corbyn's ideology than say Liz Kendall's in a forced choice, then yeah, maybe 70:30 split. If you mean a group who will strategically follow an agenda to pick an anointed candidate I don't think that constitutes a majority, as recent deselection attempts etc tend to suggest.
What this means in practice is that if there's a chosen Corbyn successor such as Long-Bailey and the remaining candidates are well to the right of the party then it's probably a done deal. On the other hand, a candidate with some popular appeal who isn't really on the right or left of the party (maybe Emily Thornberry or Jess Phillips?) could do well if the Corbyn anointee isn't that inspiring. The key is making the membership believe that they aren't voting for a return to what many would see as a return to Tory-lite economics and privatisation.
Corbyn`s resignation may come after a GE defeat. Due to this what are PBers` thoughts about the Next Labour Leader market?
Seems to me that the MPs that head the betting, with the possible exception of Starmer, lack credibility as potential leaders.
Further down the field Cooper is 20/1, but I guessing is hampered by the make-up of the Labour membership. It would be useful to know, if anyone has insight on this, what the hard left/soft left balance is in the membership, particularly after the raft of membership leavers that has been reported.
Further down the field still, Benn stands out to me as a potential leader - but I haven`t confidence to back him, even at 66/1.
I'm a member and will probably vote for Laura Pidcock if she stands.
Corbyn`s resignation may come after a GE defeat. Due to this what are PBers` thoughts about the Next Labour Leader market?
Seems to me that the MPs that head the betting, with the possible exception of Starmer, lack credibility as potential leaders.
Further down the field Cooper is 20/1, but I guessing is hampered by the make-up of the Labour membership. It would be useful to know, if anyone has insight on this, what the hard left/soft left balance is in the membership, particularly after the raft of membership leavers that has been reported.
Further down the field still, Benn stands out to me as a potential leader - but I haven`t confidence to back him, even at 66/1.
I'm a member and will probably vote for Laura Pidcock if she stands.
kinabalu said: "I'm a member and will probably vote for Laura Pidcock if she stands."
Thanks for that - interesting. I had her down as one of the less credible candidates! Do you know whether the hard left still have a stranglehold on membership - like they did when they elected Corbyn?
I'm quite a recent member but my CLP (Hampstead & Kilburn) has not struck me as being particularly hard left. I think much depends on the GE result. If we get mullered perhaps there will be a swing back to soft left - in which case Yvette Cooper must be a strong contender. Otherwise I expect a successor who is Corbynite and for me Pidcock stands out in that category. She is authentic and has genuine charisma. One thing I can guarantee - it will be a woman.
This tactical voting site is going to backfire on the REMAIN parties isnt it?
I bet there is some enterprising nerd setting up a spoof tactical voting site just to add a little more confusion in to the remain bloc.
Not that it needs it from what i've read about the guidance being offered.
A tactical voting web site that tells you to vote for a named candidate in order to defeat the Tories/Labour, but omits that that candidate is your Tory/Labour candidate. That's got to be worth a few votes.
Corbyn`s resignation may come after a GE defeat. Due to this what are PBers` thoughts about the Next Labour Leader market?
Seems to me that the MPs that head the betting, with the possible exception of Starmer, lack credibility as potential leaders.
Further down the field Cooper is 20/1, but I guessing is hampered by the make-up of the Labour membership. It would be useful to know, if anyone has insight on this, what the hard left/soft left balance is in the membership, particularly after the raft of membership leavers that has been reported.
Further down the field still, Benn stands out to me as a potential leader - but I haven`t confidence to back him, even at 66/1.
I'm a member and will probably vote for Laura Pidcock if she stands.
She make learning the alphabet easier. She uses very few consonents
I know it’s not politically correct to say this but does anyone else find Laura Pidcock strangely attractive?
As we're on the subject can I say how pleasing on the eye is the fair haired commons teller/clerk that sits in the middle of the three. Or at least she did yesterday during PMQs.
kinabalu said: "I'm a member and will probably vote for Laura Pidcock if she stands."
Thanks for that - interesting. I had her down as one of the less credible candidates! Do you know whether the hard left still have a stranglehold on membership - like they did when they elected Corbyn?
I'm quite a recent member but my CLP (Hampstead & Kilburn) has not struck me as being particularly hard left. I think much depends on the GE result. If we get mullered perhaps there will be a swing back to soft left - in which case Yvette Cooper must be a strong contender. Otherwise I expect a successor who is Corbynite and for me Pidcock stands out in that category. She is authentic and has genuine charisma. One thing I can guarantee - it will be a woman.
kinabalu said: "I'm a member and will probably vote for Laura Pidcock if she stands."
Thanks for that - interesting. I had her down as one of the less credible candidates! Do you know whether the hard left still have a stranglehold on membership - like they did when they elected Corbyn?
I think when Corbyn goes about 250k-300k Members would go Whether they hang around for the next vote some might.
That might be offset by maybe 25k rejoining
So in response to your question the Balance will change but before or after new leader elected is the important question.
My best guess the left down by 100k before a new leader
kinabalu said: "I'm a member and will probably vote for Laura Pidcock if she stands."
Thanks for that - interesting. I had her down as one of the less credible candidates! Do you know whether the hard left still have a stranglehold on membership - like they did when they elected Corbyn?
I think when Corbyn goes about 250k-300k Members would go Whether they hang around for the next vote some might.
That might be offset by maybe 25k rejoining
So in response to your question the Balance will change but before or after new leader elected is the important question.
My best guess the left down by 100k before a new leader
Dura_Ace said: "I am trying to recall when this fucking pointless shit became so pervasive. I think it was after Iraq II.
I'll salute anybody who refuses to wear one."
Thank you Dura Ace. About time someone talked some sense over this. I refuse to wear one too. What on earth must visitors to the UK think of our obsession with this militaristic shit.
The poppy is about remembrance and the tragedy of war, on remembrance day we say things like "never again" and "lest we forget" . . . if you think that is militaristic that is beyond me.
As for when it became pervasive, I remember it all my life. It was just as pervasiving in my memory in the 80s and 90s.
There was a massive change in poppyness starting about 20 years ago.
Poppies are everywhere now, poppy sculptures, pop up poppy shops, ww2 bombers dropping poppies (what is that even supposed to mean). And the double silence as well, there used to be a silence on rememberemce Sunday. Then, in the early 00s 'the nation' started having a silence on the 11th as well.
As someone who marched in remerenace day parades, carried the flag, laid the wreath, say in the remembrance day services it is all rather superficial yet oppressive these days.
Yes, I agree with that bit. And it’s being used a bit as a dividing line in the culture wars as “right wing” virtue signalling in the way the month of gay pride commemoration earlier this year was seen by others to be “left wing” virtue signalling. The common thread is the politicisation of public life and a rather unpleasant strand of mob rule.
But, I’m not going to stop doing what I’ve always done. I wear one for the first few days of November, observe the silence on Remembrance Sunday and don’t make a fuss.
So we have had two tactical voting websites mentioned so far, one of which seems to default to “Vote LD” and the other to “Vote Labour”. Are they going to end up cancelling out?
I can see there initially being a plethora of tactical voting sites of varying quality. The Guardian or possibly The Independent will hopefully make a recommendation for a credible site which which tactical voters can take seriously.
This was enough to make a big difference in 1997, when after four tory terms there were many voters prepared to tactically vote the tories out. The difference was then, the internet was in its infancy and the only credible source of such information was via print or broadcast media. Now Johhny the Joker can set up a website just to add to all the confusion.
Gina Miller's tactical voting website invites people to vote Labour in Wokingham.
Wokingham is one of the top targets for the LDs, where Tory defector Phillip Lee is standing for the yellows.
This tactical voting site is going to backfire on the REMAIN parties isnt it?
There’s seems to now be at least two. The instant a mainstream Remain Party disowns one of them (I’m looking at you Jeremy) the whole thing will unravel. The trouble with “remain” as a unifying factor is that its proponents don’t agree on very much else.
From what you, and others, have said it seems to me that the best bet at this stage is to lay Starmer.
It being a woman is something everyone will agree on in advance in the abstract. When it comes to the moment, things may be different. I think it is far more likely to be a woman but Id back the leader to be a man at around 4/1.
The next major event will be whether or not Farage decides to contest only a small number of seats.
And where the BXP vote goes where there is no BXP candidate. I'd like to see some polling on that.
I assume it is a mixture of ex-Tories who are unhappy with the Johnson deal, ex-Lab who are strong leavers or just pissed off and ex-UKIP voters.
My current guess is the current 12% BXP share splits 4% Tory, 4% Lab, and 4% UKIP/NV - so BXP absence is a wash with regard to Tory and Labour.
It wouldn't surprise me if current BXP splits more to Lab than Tory if BXP don't stand. Tory-inclined Leavers have probably already mostly returned to the Tory Party. I imagine rump BXP voters include former Labour voters who would 'die in a ditch' before voting Tory - if BXP don't stand across the country I would not bet on that helping the Tories!
I think you are wrong.
Firstly, all the polling companies still show that there are at least twice as many ex 2017 Tories than 2017 Labour supporters within the current BXP voters. So if people will just return to their former parties then the Tories will do better.
Second, there is not a lot of difference between the Tory and BXP positions on Brexit, so the natural choice for 2017 Tories in the absence of a BXP candidate is to return to the Tory party as the next best option. By contrast there is a world of difference between the Labour and BXP positions. Many of the BXP voters who voted Lab in 2017 are politically homeless people who care about Brexit and really don't like Corbyn. A lot may not vote at all if the BXP is not standing.
In the absence of a BXP candidate, I think that on average about 50% of intended BXP voters would vote Con, 15% Lab and almost all of the rest wouldn't vote at all.
Dura_Ace said: "I am trying to recall when this fucking pointless shit became so pervasive. I think it was after Iraq II.
I'll salute anybody who refuses to wear one."
Thank you Dura Ace. About time someone talked some sense over this. I refuse to wear one too. What on earth must visitors to the UK think of our obsession with this militaristic shit.
The poppy is about remembrance and the tragedy of war, on remembrance day we say things like "never again" and "lest we forget" . . . if you think that is militaristic that is beyond me.
As for when it became pervasive, I remember it all my life. It was just as pervasiving in my memory in the 80s and 90s.
There was a massive change in poppyness starting about 20 years ago.
Poppies are everywhere now, poppy sculptures, pop up poppy shops, ww2 bombers dropping poppies (what is that even supposed to mean). And the double silence as well, there used to be a silence on rememberemce Sunday. Then, in the early 00s 'the nation' started having a silence on the 11th as well.
As someone who marched in remerenace day parades, carried the flag, laid the wreath, say in the remembrance day services it is all rather superficial yet oppressive these days.
I don't think that's either militarisation or condemning anyone, its just that we are more dramatic about everything we do nowadays: whether that be poppies, Hallowe'en, Christmas, Easter, protesting, politics, our TV, sports, whatever. People get more engaged in everything they do and make a bigger deal about it all.
I think people overall are more narcissistic and insecure and society more individualistic.
Hence the need to be seen to be doing the right thing, or not (depending on taste) and criticising those who don’t publicly to make yourself feel better about yourself.
So we have had two tactical voting websites mentioned so far, one of which seems to default to “Vote LD” and the other to “Vote Labour”. Are they going to end up cancelling out?
To be fair, I think the Miller one defaults to whoever came second to the Tories. Hence vote Labour in Woking and Lib Dem in Guildford.
No chicken counting but I would definitely take that result! And that's with Scotland separate too . . .
In 2017 one reason for the Labour surge must have been the feeling that May was sure to get a majority so it was safe to vote Labour. Is the same thing going to happen this time?
So we have had two tactical voting websites mentioned so far, one of which seems to default to “Vote LD” and the other to “Vote Labour”. Are they going to end up cancelling out?
To be fair, I think the Miller one defaults to whoever came second to the Tories. Hence vote Labour in Woking and Lib Dem in Guildford.
It's still not great to be honest.
That isnt really a tactical voting site then, more a results of the last GE site.
I don't know where those figures are coming from, but I simply do not believe that a 10.5% Tory-Lab lead will result in the Tories winning 5 fewer seats than they did in 2017!
Those polling figures are not far off 2015 besides the Lib Dems but with a bigger Tory lead over Labour, yet supposedly Tories will win 18 fewer than they did in 2015 while Labor will win 10 fewer than they did in 2015? That makes no sense!
Tories win 19 seats off Labour but lose seats to SNP and LDs.
The 4% swing from Labour to the Tories you have actually sees the Tories gain 38 Labour seats on UNS, not 19
I use 80% UNS and 20% multiplicative. UNS has the problem that it is uniform. It adds the same share to every constituency. The multiplicative multiplies the share recognising that the absolute increase in share is likely to be higher where the original share is higher. So that's one difference. There are also tactical voting differences (reduces Tory gains from Labour by 8 seats) and allocation of the green share. It's matching quite well with the individual constituency polls but they are small samples so not much comfort.
Electoral calculus is quite crude.
What happens if Brexit Party aren't standing on Labour vs Tory marginal? I find it hard to believe Tories wouldn't benefit from that.
If the Brexit supporters in that Labour vs Tory marginal are mainly Labour Leavers it might benefit Labour. We just don't know yet. You will have seen the various comments on this.
Corbyn`s resignation may come after a GE defeat. Due to this what are PBers` thoughts about the Next Labour Leader market?
Seems to me that the MPs that head the betting, with the possible exception of Starmer, lack credibility as potential leaders.
Further down the field Cooper is 20/1, but I guessing is hampered by the make-up of the Labour membership. It would be useful to know, if anyone has insight on this, what the hard left/soft left balance is in the membership, particularly after the raft of membership leavers that has been reported.
Further down the field still, Benn stands out to me as a potential leader - but I haven`t confidence to back him, even at 66/1.
I'm a member and will probably vote for Laura Pidcock if she stands.
She make learning the alphabet easier. She uses very few consonents
Dura_Ace said: "I am trying to recall when this fucking pointless shit became so pervasive. I think it was after Iraq II.
I'll salute anybody who refuses to wear one."
Thank you Dura Ace. About time someone talked some sense over this. I refuse to wear one too. What on earth must visitors to the UK think of our obsession with this militaristic shit.
The poppy is about remembrance and the tragedy of war, on remembrance day we say things like "never again" and "lest we forget" . . . if you think that is militaristic that is beyond me.
As for when it became pervasive, I remember it all my life. It was just as pervasiving in my memory in the 80s and 90s.
There was a massive change in poppyness starting about 20 years ago.
Poppies are everywhere now, poppy sculptures, pop up poppy shops, ww2 bombers dropping poppies (what is that even supposed to mean). And the double silence as well, there used to be a silence on rememberemce Sunday. Then, in the early 00s 'the nation' started having a silence on the 11th as well.
As someone who marched in remerenace day parades, carried the flag, laid the wreath, say in the remembrance day services it is all rather superficial yet oppressive these days.
And it's not what those who actually lived through the war would have wanted IMO. I grew up in the 1970s when anyone over about 35 could remember the war but it was rarely mentioned. Most people saw it as a terrible experience best left in the past. I cannot remember ever wearing a poppy or attending an organised remembrance event at school. I learned recently - 50 years later - that one of my teachers had escaped from the Nazis on one of the kindertransports and all her family perished in the holocaust. This came as a complete surprise to me, these events were just not talked about at that time.
I was a kid in the 80s, and can clearly remember that one of my grandmother's friends had survived a concentration camp, and had a number tattooed on her arm. People did not talk about it at all.
I can remember one assembly about the meaning of remembrance at school, but that seemed to be largely a gig for the Head Girl to talk about why she wore a white poppy, which was profoundly irritating.
Both Woking and Wokingham ought to be flagged up as places where anti-Tory tactical voters should vote for the LDs not Labour in my opinion, even though Labour was in second place at the last election.
From what you, and others, have said it seems to me that the best bet at this stage is to lay Starmer.
That's probably a good starting point. A possible winner if Labour was choosing a leader to stop Brexit but hard to imagine a leadership contest now happening in that situation (and even then I think Thornberry might win that one) but I can't see another situation where his particular qualities push him to the front.
Dura_Ace said: "I am trying to recall when this fucking pointless shit became so pervasive. I think it was after Iraq II.
I'll salute anybody who refuses to wear one."
Thank you Dura Ace. About time someone talked some sense over this. I refuse to wear one too. What on earth must visitors to the UK think of our obsession with this militaristic shit.
The poppy is about remembrance and the tragedy of war, on remembrance day we say things like "never again" and "lest we forget" . . . if you think that is militaristic that is beyond me.
As for when it became pervasive, I remember it all my life. It was just as pervasiving in my memory in the 80s and 90s.
There was a massive change in poppyness starting about 20 years ago.
Poppies are everywhere now, poppy sculptures, pop up poppy shops, ww2 bombers dropping poppies (what is that even supposed to mean). And the double silence as well, there used to be a silence on rememberemce Sunday. Then, in the early 00s 'the nation' started having a silence on the 11th as well.
As someone who marched in remerenace day parades, carried the flag, laid the wreath, say in the remembrance day services it is all rather superficial yet oppressive these days.
I don't think that's either militarisation or condemning anyone, its just that we are more dramatic about everything we do nowadays: whether that be poppies, Hallowe'en, Christmas, Easter, protesting, politics, our TV, sports, whatever. People get more engaged in everything they do and make a bigger deal about it all.
I think people overall are more narcissistic and insecure and society more individualistic.
Hence the need to be seen to be doing the right thing, or not (depending on taste) and criticising those who don’t publicly to make yourself feel better about yourself.
Interesting. I guess Facebook and social media generally a factor in this as well. I hadn't thought of it in those terms, I had seen it as more part of an authoritarian move to demand everyone thinks in the same way, but perhaps it is more to do with wider insecurity as you say.
They told us we would leave...and we didn't....I am dead angry about that, so what we need is more delay and another vote in 6-12 months. Certainly an interesting message.
He sees himself as resisting an order successfully
kinabalu said: "I'm a member and will probably vote for Laura Pidcock if she stands."
Thanks for that - interesting. I had her down as one of the less credible candidates! Do you know whether the hard left still have a stranglehold on membership - like they did when they elected Corbyn?
I think when Corbyn goes about 250k-300k Members would go Whether they hang around for the next vote some might.
That might be offset by maybe 25k rejoining
So in response to your question the Balance will change but before or after new leader elected is the important question.
My best guess the left down by 100k before a new leader
I think the next Lab leader would also depend on the nature of any defeat. If Lab has lost lots of seats in the north then northerners like Pidcock and Long-Bailey will be well placed. If on the other the problem has been losing votes in the south to the LDs then Thornberry and Starmer would have a better chance.
The next major event will be whether or not Farage decides to contest only a small number of seats.
And where the BXP vote goes where there is no BXP candidate. I'd like to see some polling on that.
I assume it is a mixture of ex-Tories who are unhappy with the Johnson deal, ex-Lab who are strong leavers or just pissed off and ex-UKIP voters.
My current guess is the current 12% BXP share splits 4% Tory, 4% Lab, and 4% UKIP/NV - so BXP absence is a wash with regard to Tory and Labour.
It wouldn't surprise me if current BXP splits more to Lab than Tory if BXP don't stand. Tory-inclined Leavers have probably already mostly returned to the Tory Party. I imagine rump BXP voters include former Labour voters who would 'die in a ditch' before voting Tory - if BXP don't stand across the country I would not bet on that helping the Tories!
I think you are wrong.
Firstly, all the polling companies still show that there are at least twice as many ex 2017 Tories than 2017 Labour supporters within the current BXP voters. So if people will just return to their former parties then the Tories will do better.
Second, there is not a lot of difference between the Tory and BXP positions on Brexit, so the natural choice for 2017 Tories in the absence of a BXP candidate is to return to the Tory party as the next best option. By contrast there is a world of difference between the Labour and BXP positions. Many of the BXP voters who voted Lab in 2017 are politically homeless people who care about Brexit and really don't like Corbyn. A lot may not vote at all if the BXP is not standing.
In the absence of a BXP candidate, I think that on average about 50% of intended BXP voters would vote Con, 15% Lab and almost all of the rest wouldn't vote at all.
Both Woking and Wokingham ought to be flagged up as places where anti-Tory tactical voters should vote for the LDs not Labour in my opinion, even though Labour was in second place at the last election.
Here is my tactical voting advice for anti Cons. Are there good jobs available in your constituency or easy commute? Yes vote LD, no vote Labour.
kinabalu said: "I'm a member and will probably vote for Laura Pidcock if she stands."
Thanks for that - interesting. I had her down as one of the less credible candidates! Do you know whether the hard left still have a stranglehold on membership - like they did when they elected Corbyn?
Judging by the complete failure of hard left attempts to deselect MPs the answer to that seems to be no. Despite all the sound and fury not a single deselection attempt has succeeded and there is only one case in which the process is still going on, which is Roger Godsiff and he is widely disliked by all sides, partly because of his support for the Birmingham school protestors.
So where's the Tory polling collapse we were assured would occur if we were unable to leave by today?
All those like Nabavi and co insisting Boris had made a terrible mistake and the opposition fans that insisted delaying an election until after Halloween would see a polling collapse for the Tories - when are we expecting that to occur? Tomorrow, next week?
Both Woking and Wokingham ought to be flagged up as places where anti-Tory tactical voters should vote for the LDs not Labour in my opinion, even though Labour was in second place at the last election.
Putney.. Cons 20,679 Lab 19,125 Lib dems. 5,448
Best For (ahem Lib Dem ahem) Britain .... say vote Lib dem... completely destroying all credibility.
Ah new thread. Morning all again. So it's 31st October and we have NOT left the European Union "come what may" as Boris Johnson unequivocally promised that we would. If Johnson had not got his election the focus would have been on this failure and on his Deal, which under prolonged scrutiny would have shed appeal, exposed as being essentially the May Deal amended to capitulate to the EU's demands over Northern Ireland. The next phase could have been a world of pain for the Cons. As it is? We will see. The stars do seem to be aligning for them.
I sense some backsliding on your commitment to be all ra ra gung ho for Jeremy
kinabalu said: "I'm a member and will probably vote for Laura Pidcock if she stands."
Thanks for that - interesting. I had her down as one of the less credible candidates! Do you know whether the hard left still have a stranglehold on membership - like they did when they elected Corbyn?
I think when Corbyn goes about 250k-300k Members would go Whether they hang around for the next vote some might.
That might be offset by maybe 25k rejoining
So in response to your question the Balance will change but before or after new leader elected is the important question.
My best guess the left down by 100k before a new leader
I think the next Lab leader would also depend on the nature of any defeat. If Lab has lost lots of seats in the north then northerners like Pidcock and Long-Bailey will be well placed. If on the other the problem has been losing votes in the south to the LDs then Thornberry and Starmer would have a better chance.
I say this as an observer only, but it seems to me that an important factor is that many/most Corbyn supports really believe in his agenda as a moral good. It’s seems to me then that the key questions are a) who will he support; and b) who is a good campaigner at rallies.
I might also throw in point c, which is that millions like me would vote for the Corbyn agenda if he was sound on defence/security and not racist. I’d think the grown ups who nominate, and the Unions with the cash, will be clever enough to see that won’t they?
I see the appeal but I am not her biggest fan. She seems a little too much about her personal brand - "Jessness" - for my liking. I just have a suspicion that much of it is put on. That said, she is definitely an asset, electorally, and it's not hard for me to see her as a future leader if the party goes in a soft left direction following a big loss on 12th Dec.
So where's the Tory polling collapse we were assured would occur if we were unable to leave by today?
All those like Nabavi and co insisting Boris had made a terrible mistake and the opposition fans that insisted delaying an election until after Halloween would see a polling collapse for the Tories - when are we expecting that to occur? Tomorrow, next week?
The only person with the power to make him pay that price is Farage, he may or may not do so.
With the stated objective of keeping the Tories out.
Tactical voting advice is inherently about keeping a particular party out, no? For instance I'm I'm certain that a Unionist tactical voting wheel of SNPbad is being fashioned in the orc pits of Barad-dûr as I type.
I see the appeal but I am not her biggest fan. She seems a little too much about her personal brand - "Jessness" - for my liking. I just have a suspicion that much of it is put on. That said, she is definitely an asset, electorally, and it's not hard for me to see her as a future leader if the party goes in a soft left direction following a big loss on 12th Dec.
"Jessness" would bring votes other Labour leaders cannot reach. Not sure it costs them many existing votes. Not much evidence Labour are interested in what the voters think sadly, the introspection is all internal.
Both Woking and Wokingham ought to be flagged up as places where anti-Tory tactical voters should vote for the LDs not Labour in my opinion, even though Labour was in second place at the last election.
Definitely. I live in Woking and Lib Dems have a decent chance here (ahead in the European elections in a strongly Remain Surrey constituency that has always been Tory). Labour have literally zero chance. Knowing Wokingham as well, that's definitely very similar.
Apart from the triumphalist gloating of the Conservatives on here, who will then have the small matter of actually providing good governance for this country, the other main result of a Conservative landslide will be an opportunity for Labour.
Defeat brings opportunity - indeed, you can tell a lot about a party from how it handles its defeats. While I'm not a fan of the symmetrical pattern of history, a third successive GE defeat, especially if it is a significant reverse from 2017 (back to low 200s for example) would provide Labour with a chance to wipe the slate clean.
That's not how politics works though - you won't see a centrist immediately take over. What tends to happen is someone who becomes a leader begins a journey of change just as so many have done in the past. The Neil Kinnock of 1992 was unrecognisable from the Neil Kinnock of 1983 and the same opportunity beckons for a new leader to take the party and move it back to power.
Make no mistake, Boris will find the next GE a lot harder than this because people will have had five years of him and he will have a record to defend. Labour may well, if they truly want to get back into Government, have a real opportunity to present themselves as a credible alternative which, at the moment, they aren't.
So we have had two tactical voting websites mentioned so far, one of which seems to default to “Vote LD” and the other to “Vote Labour”. Are they going to end up cancelling out?
To be fair, I think the Miller one defaults to whoever came second to the Tories. Hence vote Labour in Woking and Lib Dem in Guildford.
It's still not great to be honest.
I always maintained that tactical voting will be really hard. Most pro remainers instinctively wish to vote Lib Dem, but they are so far back in 3rd in so many places that they don't really know what to do, and then there will be huge regional variations. I can easily see the Tories squeezing through the middle to make at least 10 unlikely gains where there are 3 way battles. Kensington springs to mind as one.
By praising John Bercow for cutting back on the number of "strange garments" worn in Parliament, Jeremy Corbyn deliberately triggered Tories into jeering at the green tie he was wearing, Then it turns out the tie was to honour the victims of the Grenfell fire. Ouch. One-nil.
This minor bit of theatre was very well conceived and handled. Corbyn has got a skilled manager.
1. It was much better done than Jacob Rees-Mogg's "lie down for a snooze when you're supposed to be taking questions as a government minister and then look nonchalant when you open your eyes" manoeuvre.
2. It was judo. Corbyn knows that many Tory MPs love nothing better than jeering and scoffing as a pack, sometimes after they've enjoyed baiting their chosen target. He also knows that they're not beneath rounding off their fun with some whining. A classic case was when they baited Corbyn by shouting "Look behind you" at him before the Christmas pantomime season started and then when he muttered "stupid people" under his breath, they complained that he'd actually said "stupid woman". (Never mind that the jeerers had been visibly geed up by a woman, namely Theresa May.) Some of them even ran to show Sir their video footage of his lips moving, for such was the extent of their righteous pain. (I've never seen a "Remoaner" whine half as much as that!) Given that the media chatterers could and did then opine on and debate the supposedly serious question of whether the Leader of the Opposition had said "people" or "woman", rather than the appropriateness or decency of how the Tory MPs had been behaving under the prime minister's leadership, Corbyn lost that one.
But he won yesterday. The jeerers found their access to the whining stage at the end had been cut off.
This is going to be a corker of an election. The TIG having now practically rotted away in the polls and what's happening with this year's other new association the Brexit Party still uncertain, the LDs may have positioned themselves as a "don't vote Labour" effort in some markets but this is a two horse race: essence of Labour versus essence of Tory.
So where's the Tory polling collapse we were assured would occur if we were unable to leave by today?
All those like Nabavi and co insisting Boris had made a terrible mistake and the opposition fans that insisted delaying an election until after Halloween would see a polling collapse for the Tories - when are we expecting that to occur? Tomorrow, next week?
I see the appeal but I am not her biggest fan. She seems a little too much about her personal brand - "Jessness" - for my liking. I just have a suspicion that much of it is put on. That said, she is definitely an asset, electorally, and it's not hard for me to see her as a future leader if the party goes in a soft left direction following a big loss on 12th Dec.
I find her regular use of 'bab' a bit cringey. I may not have got my head round the Brummie patois, but it appears to me that it would be a bit like Sturgeon addressing folk as 'hen' in her tweets (disclosure: she doesn't).
So where's the Tory polling collapse we were assured would occur if we were unable to leave by today?
All those like Nabavi and co insisting Boris had made a terrible mistake and the opposition fans that insisted delaying an election until after Halloween would see a polling collapse for the Tories - when are we expecting that to occur? Tomorrow, next week?
The only person with the power to make him pay that price is Farage, he may or may not do so.
I don't think Farage has that power. I think Farage is snookered and he knows it.
Dura_Ace said: "I am trying to recall when this fucking pointless shit became so pervasive. I think it was after Iraq II.
I'll salute anybody who refuses to wear one."
Thank you Dura Ace. About time someone talked some sense over this. I refuse to wear one too. What on earth must visitors to the UK think of our obsession with this militaristic shit.
The poppy is about remembrance and the tragedy of war, on remembrance day we say things like "never again" and "lest we forget" . . . if you think that is militaristic that is beyond me.
As for when it became pervasive, I remember it all my life. It was just as pervasiving in my memory in the 80s and 90s.
There was a massive change in poppyness starting about 20 years ago.
Poppies are everywhere now, poppy sculptures, pop up poppy shops, ww2 bombers dropping poppies (what is that even supposed to mean). And the double silence as well, there used to be a silence on rememberemce Sunday. Then, in the early 00s 'the nation' started having a silence on the 11th as well.
As someone who marched in remerenace day parades, carried the flag, laid the wreath, say in the remembrance day services it is all rather superficial yet oppressive these days.
And it's not what those who actually lived through the war would have wanted IMO. I grew up in the 1970s when anyone over about 35 could remember the war but it was rarely mentioned. Most people saw it as a terrible experience best left in the past. I cannot remember ever wearing a poppy or attending an organised remembrance event at school. I learned recently - 50 years later - that one of my teachers had escaped from the Nazis on one of the kindertransports and all her family perished in the holocaust. This came as a complete surprise to me, these events were just not talked about at that time.
Oh people did talk about the war in the seventies, but it was about life in the war. The rationing, the inventiveness to get around the lack of supplies, the anderson shelters,or sleeping under a table if there was no anderson. The terror when a doodlebug stopped buzzing.
Things like Dday, the holocaust and the strategic aspects of the war, I agree, were seldom talked about. My Dad would talk about life in London during the war, but I can't think of him telling me anything about being in the Army in Egypt towards the end of the war.
Apart from the triumphalist gloating of the Conservatives on here, who will then have the small matter of actually providing good governance for this country, the other main result of a Conservative landslide will be an opportunity for Labour.
Defeat brings opportunity - indeed, you can tell a lot about a party from how it handles its defeats. While I'm not a fan of the symmetrical pattern of history, a third successive GE defeat, especially if it is a significant reverse from 2017 (back to low 200s for example) would provide Labour with a chance to wipe the slate clean.
That's not how politics works though - you won't see a centrist immediately take over. What tends to happen is someone who becomes a leader begins a journey of change just as so many have done in the past. The Neil Kinnock of 1992 was unrecognisable from the Neil Kinnock of 1983 and the same opportunity beckons for a new leader to take the party and move it back to power.
Make no mistake, Boris will find the next GE a lot harder than this because people will have had five years of him and he will have a record to defend. Labour may well, if they truly want to get back into Government, have a real opportunity to present themselves as a credible alternative which, at the moment, they aren't.
If you are reduced to stating that defeat is good for Labour and Boris will find his second electoral victory more difficult in 2024, then you have already admitted defeat.
I can't believe you lads are getting all misty-eyed over your favourite lady MP, whilst missing the 'Who can be the thickest lefty' competition between Burgon and Lloyd R-M.
I can't even call the eventual winner at this stage.
By praising John Bercow for cutting back on the number of "strange garments" worn in Parliament, Jeremy Corbyn deliberately triggered Tories into jeering at the green tie he was wearing, Then it turns out the tie was to honour the victims of the Grenfell fire. Ouch. One-nil.
This minor bit of theatre was very well conceived and handled. Corbyn has got a skilled manager.
1. It was much better done than Jacob Rees-Mogg's "lie down for a snooze when you're supposed to be taking questions as a government minister and then look nonchalant when you open your eyes" manoeuvre.
2. It was judo. Corbyn knows that many Tory MPs love nothing better than jeering and scoffing as a pack, sometimes after they've enjoyed baiting their chosen target. He also knows that they're not beneath rounding off their fun with some whining. A classic case was when they baited Corbyn by shouting "Look behind you" at him before the Christmas pantomime season started and then when he muttered "stupid people" under his breath, they complained that he'd actually said "stupid woman". (Never mind that the jeerers had been visibly geed up by a woman, namely Theresa May.) Some of them even ran to show Sir their video footage of his lips moving, for such was the extent of their righteous pain. (I've never seen a "Remoaner" whine half as much as that!) Given that the media chatterers could and did then opine on and debate the supposedly serious question of whether the Leader of the Opposition had said "people" or "woman", rather than the appropriateness or decency of how the Tory MPs had been behaving under the prime minister's leadership, Corbyn lost that one.
But he won yesterday. The jeerers found their access to the whining stage at the end had been cut off.
This is going to be a corker of an election. The TIG having now practically rotted away in the polls and what's happening with this year's other new association the Brexit Party still uncertain, the LDs may have positioned themselves as a "don't vote Labour" effort in some markets but this is a two horse race: essence of Labour versus essence of Tory.
Essence of Hard Labour vs Essence of Tory Bluekip probably appeals to about 40% of the electorate. What are the rest of us supposed to do? Twiddle our thumbs and see which side gets to make a mess of it first?
So where's the Tory polling collapse we were assured would occur if we were unable to leave by today?
All those like Nabavi and co insisting Boris had made a terrible mistake and the opposition fans that insisted delaying an election until after Halloween would see a polling collapse for the Tories - when are we expecting that to occur? Tomorrow, next week?
As I have repeatedly explained, the hit would have been felt over the next few months if Johnson had been kept in his box. No Brexit, no GE, no resignation, Deal exposed as piss poor. World of pain.
Apart from the triumphalist gloating of the Conservatives on here, who will then have the small matter of actually providing good governance for this country, the other main result of a Conservative landslide will be an opportunity for Labour.
Defeat brings opportunity - indeed, you can tell a lot about a party from how it handles its defeats. While I'm not a fan of the symmetrical pattern of history, a third successive GE defeat, especially if it is a significant reverse from 2017 (back to low 200s for example) would provide Labour with a chance to wipe the slate clean.
That's not how politics works though - you won't see a centrist immediately take over. What tends to happen is someone who becomes a leader begins a journey of change just as so many have done in the past. The Neil Kinnock of 1992 was unrecognisable from the Neil Kinnock of 1983 and the same opportunity beckons for a new leader to take the party and move it back to power.
Make no mistake, Boris will find the next GE a lot harder than this because people will have had five years of him and he will have a record to defend. Labour may well, if they truly want to get back into Government, have a real opportunity to present themselves as a credible alternative which, at the moment, they aren't.
Agree with all of this. A heavy-ish defeat might actually be best for Lab in the long term if they start moving back to the centre. What could easily be worse for them in the long term is if we have another hung parliament and Corbyn becomes PM with SNP support. I could see that going down like a cup of cold sick in England and would likely end up a pyrrhic victory like the Tories and 1992.
What we really need is regional polling. I suspect we'll have to make do with London, Scotland and Wales, but it would be really useful to see some South West, Yorkshire & Humber polling.
Nevertheless, London is fascinating:
YouGov, London, 7-10 May 2019 (Change since 2017 GE)
Labour - 35% (-20pp) Tories - 23% (-10pp) Lib Dems - 21% (+12pp) Brexit - 10% (N/A) Green - 7% (+5pp) Change UK - 2% (N/A) Ukip - 0% (-1pp)
YouGov, National, 24-25 May 2019 (Change since 7-10 May)
Labour - 23% (-1pp) Tories - 36% (+12pp) Lib Dems - 18% (+2pp) Brexit - 12% (-6pp) Green - 6% (-1pp) Change UK - 0% (-2pp) Ukip - 0% (-2pp)
I'm sure it won't be too long before the Evening Standard commissions a London poll. I doubt the Tories have put on 12pp in London since May, but who knows?
Comments
Not that it needs it from what i've read about the guidance being offered.
He doesn't know that, this could by some miracle be exactly right
And the Lord said unto Moses Vote for Boris Johnson who went forth and multiplied and begat several children to many different women. 'It is the will of the the Lord' said Rabbi Johnathan Romain.
In Warrington which I know well I would hope the Tories would regain Warrington South which is a swing seat lost in 2017, but Warrington North is a very safe Labour seat. The prediction is for the Tories to gain it, it just does not seem plausible to me.
What this means in practice is that if there's a chosen Corbyn successor such as Long-Bailey and the remaining candidates are well to the right of the party then it's probably a done deal. On the other hand, a candidate with some popular appeal who isn't really on the right or left of the party (maybe Emily Thornberry or Jess Phillips?) could do well if the Corbyn anointee isn't that inspiring. The key is making the membership believe that they aren't voting for a return to what many would see as a return to Tory-lite economics and privatisation.
From what you, and others, have said it seems to me that the best bet at this stage is to lay Starmer.
That might be offset by maybe 25k rejoining
So in response to your question the Balance will change but before or after new leader elected is the important question.
My best guess the left down by 100k before a new leader
But, I’m not going to stop doing what I’ve always done. I wear one for the first few days of November, observe the silence on Remembrance Sunday and don’t make a fuss.
This was enough to make a big difference in 1997, when after four tory terms there were many voters prepared to tactically vote the tories out. The difference was then, the internet was in its infancy and the only credible source of such information was via print or broadcast media. Now Johhny the Joker can set up a website just to add to all the confusion.
Firstly, all the polling companies still show that there are at least twice as many ex 2017 Tories than 2017 Labour supporters within the current BXP voters. So if people will just return to their former parties then the Tories will do better.
Second, there is not a lot of difference between the Tory and BXP positions on Brexit, so the natural choice for 2017 Tories in the absence of a BXP candidate is to return to the Tory party as the next best option. By contrast there is a world of difference between the Labour and BXP positions. Many of the BXP voters who voted Lab in 2017 are politically homeless people who care about Brexit and really don't like Corbyn. A lot may not vote at all if the BXP is not standing.
In the absence of a BXP candidate, I think that on average about 50% of intended BXP voters would vote Con, 15% Lab and almost all of the rest wouldn't vote at all.
Hence the need to be seen to be doing the right thing, or not (depending on taste) and criticising those who don’t publicly to make yourself feel better about yourself.
It's still not great to be honest.
I can remember one assembly about the meaning of remembrance at school, but that seemed to be largely a gig for the Head Girl to talk about why she wore a white poppy, which was profoundly irritating.
All those like Nabavi and co insisting Boris had made a terrible mistake and the opposition fans that insisted delaying an election until after Halloween would see a polling collapse for the Tories - when are we expecting that to occur? Tomorrow, next week?
Cons 20,679
Lab 19,125
Lib dems. 5,448
Best For (ahem Lib Dem ahem) Britain .... say vote Lib dem... completely destroying all credibility.
I might also throw in point c, which is that millions like me would vote for the Corbyn agenda if he was sound on defence/security and not racist. I’d think the grown ups who nominate, and the Unions with the cash, will be clever enough to see that won’t they?
Boom boom!
Defeat brings opportunity - indeed, you can tell a lot about a party from how it handles its defeats. While I'm not a fan of the symmetrical pattern of history, a third successive GE defeat, especially if it is a significant reverse from 2017 (back to low 200s for example) would provide Labour with a chance to wipe the slate clean.
That's not how politics works though - you won't see a centrist immediately take over. What tends to happen is someone who becomes a leader begins a journey of change just as so many have done in the past. The Neil Kinnock of 1992 was unrecognisable from the Neil Kinnock of 1983 and the same opportunity beckons for a new leader to take the party and move it back to power.
Make no mistake, Boris will find the next GE a lot harder than this because people will have had five years of him and he will have a record to defend. Labour may well, if they truly want to get back into Government, have a real opportunity to present themselves as a credible alternative which, at the moment, they aren't.
"I know it’s not politically correct to say this but does anyone else find Laura Pidcock strangely attractive?"
I like Melanie Onn and Esther McVey.
I don`t give a rat`s arse whether it`s politically correct. Objectification is the stuff of life.
This minor bit of theatre was very well conceived and handled. Corbyn has got a skilled manager.
1. It was much better done than Jacob Rees-Mogg's "lie down for a snooze when you're supposed to be taking questions as a government minister and then look nonchalant when you open your eyes" manoeuvre.
2. It was judo. Corbyn knows that many Tory MPs love nothing better than jeering and scoffing as a pack, sometimes after they've enjoyed baiting their chosen target. He also knows that they're not beneath rounding off their fun with some whining. A classic case was when they baited Corbyn by shouting "Look behind you" at him before the Christmas pantomime season started and then when he muttered "stupid people" under his breath, they complained that he'd actually said "stupid woman". (Never mind that the jeerers had been visibly geed up by a woman, namely Theresa May.) Some of them even ran to show Sir their video footage of his lips moving, for such was the extent of their righteous pain. (I've never seen a "Remoaner" whine half as much as that!) Given that the media chatterers could and did then opine on and debate the supposedly serious question of whether the Leader of the Opposition had said "people" or "woman", rather than the appropriateness or decency of how the Tory MPs had been behaving under the prime minister's leadership, Corbyn lost that one.
But he won yesterday. The jeerers found their access to the whining stage at the end had been cut off.
This is going to be a corker of an election. The TIG having now practically rotted away in the polls and what's happening with this year's other new association the Brexit Party still uncertain, the LDs may have positioned themselves as a "don't vote Labour" effort in some markets but this is a two horse race: essence of Labour versus essence of Tory.
And what a speech it was!
The best elections are all about strong new ideas and for this one it seems that Labour have a monopoly on them.
The rationing, the inventiveness to get around the lack of supplies, the anderson shelters,or sleeping under a table if there was no anderson. The terror when a doodlebug stopped buzzing.
Things like Dday, the holocaust and the strategic aspects of the war, I agree, were seldom talked about. My Dad would talk about life in London during the war, but I can't think of him telling me anything about being in the Army in Egypt towards the end of the war.
I can't even call the eventual winner at this stage.
https://twitter.com/Emmabarnett/status/1189863151598260233
https://twitter.com/RobJoyce156/status/1189826811682840577
If they were to decide to do the same to Corbyn over antisemitism then it would make a big difference.
If she becomes next Labour leader, it will be less than 3 years after becoming an MP for the first time.
Will that be the quickest rise to power of an MP?
He's been saved from this by the election.
Nevertheless, London is fascinating:
YouGov, London, 7-10 May 2019 (Change since 2017 GE)
Labour - 35% (-20pp)
Tories - 23% (-10pp)
Lib Dems - 21% (+12pp)
Brexit - 10% (N/A)
Green - 7% (+5pp)
Change UK - 2% (N/A)
Ukip - 0% (-1pp)
YouGov, 7-10 May 2019 (National/London)
Labour - 24% / 35%
Tories - 24% / 23%
Lib Dems - 16% / 21%
Brexit - 18% / 10%
Green - 7% / 7%
Change UK - 2% / 2%
Ukip - 2% / 0%
YouGov, National, 24-25 May 2019 (Change since 7-10 May)
Labour - 23% (-1pp)
Tories - 36% (+12pp)
Lib Dems - 18% (+2pp)
Brexit - 12% (-6pp)
Green - 6% (-1pp)
Change UK - 0% (-2pp)
Ukip - 0% (-2pp)
I'm sure it won't be too long before the Evening Standard commissions a London poll. I doubt the Tories have put on 12pp in London since May, but who knows?