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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Latest polling round-up

SystemSystem Posts: 11,758
edited October 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Latest polling round-up

New YouGov Times pollCON 36% =LAB 21% -2LD 18% =BRX 13% +1GRN 6% =

Read the full story here


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  • Options
    Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,670
    Anyone there?
  • Options
    JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    Long way to go. surely one of the most unpredictable elections ever, with so many reasons for traditional blocs of support to diminish in size and shift around. Swings back and forth all over the place
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,954
    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Anyone there?

    3rd. Like Labour :smiley:
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Very unpredictable and nothing can be counted on yet.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,811
    Re last tweet...labour are already polling in single figures with jews...there arent many more votes they can lose.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Stocky said:

    Dura_Ace said: "I am trying to recall when this fucking pointless shit became so pervasive. I think it was after Iraq II.

    I'll salute anybody who refuses to wear one."

    Thank you Dura Ace. About time someone talked some sense over this. I refuse to wear one too. What on earth must visitors to the UK think of our obsession with this militaristic shit.

    The poppy is about remembrance and the tragedy of war, on remembrance day we say things like "never again" and "lest we forget" . . . if you think that is militaristic that is beyond me.

    As for when it became pervasive, I remember it all my life. It was just as pervasiving in my memory in the 80s and 90s.
    There was a massive change in poppyness starting about 20 years ago.

    Poppies are everywhere now, poppy sculptures, pop up poppy shops, ww2 bombers dropping poppies (what is that even supposed to mean). And the double silence as well, there used to be a silence on rememberemce Sunday. Then, in the early 00s 'the nation' started having a silence on the 11th as well.

    As someone who marched in remerenace day parades, carried the flag, laid the wreath, say in the remembrance day services it is all rather superficial yet oppressive these days.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,811
    Labour are never going to poll as low as 21%. Even useless gordon got 29% and labours hard left platform does now have a decent audience given the way income etc has stagnated for lower middle classes over past 10-15 years.
  • Options
    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Re last tweet...labour are already polling in single figures with jews...there arent many more votes they can lose.

    Especially not in Maidenhead. Is Theresa May standing btw?
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    FPT
    Barnesian said:

    AndyJS said:

    Barnesian said:

    The latest two polls (Survation and YouGov) together make little difference to the EMA. A slight movement away from Labour.

    Con 34.9% (-)
    Lab 24.4% (-0.2)
    LD 18.3% (+0.1)
    BXP 12.2 (+0.1)

    Con 312 (+2)
    Lab 222(-2)
    LD 46 (-)

    The next major event will be whether or not Farage decides to contest only a small number of seats.
    And where the BXP vote goes where there is no BXP candidate. I'd like to see some polling on that.

    I assume it is a mixture of ex-Tories who are unhappy with the Johnson deal, ex-Lab who are strong leavers or just pissed off and ex-UKIP voters.

    My current guess is the current 12% BXP share splits 4% Tory, 4% Lab, and 4% UKIP/NV - so BXP absence is a wash with regard to Tory and Labour.
    It wouldn't surprise me if current BXP splits more to Lab than Tory if BXP don't stand. Tory-inclined Leavers have probably already mostly returned to the Tory Party. I imagine rump BXP voters include former Labour voters who would 'die in a ditch' before voting Tory - if BXP don't stand across the country I would not bet on that helping the Tories!
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Labour are never going to poll as low as 21%. Even useless gordon got 29% and labours hard left platform does now have a decent audience given the way income etc has stagnated for lower middle classes over past 10-15 years.

    Right, YouGov's MRP polling may be more enlightening
  • Options
    gambitgambit Posts: 5
    Any idea when the bookies will pay out on a December / 2019 election?
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Alistair said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Stocky said:

    Dura_Ace said: "I am trying to recall when this fucking pointless shit became so pervasive. I think it was after Iraq II.

    I'll salute anybody who refuses to wear one."

    Thank you Dura Ace. About time someone talked some sense over this. I refuse to wear one too. What on earth must visitors to the UK think of our obsession with this militaristic shit.

    The poppy is about remembrance and the tragedy of war, on remembrance day we say things like "never again" and "lest we forget" . . . if you think that is militaristic that is beyond me.

    As for when it became pervasive, I remember it all my life. It was just as pervasiving in my memory in the 80s and 90s.
    There was a massive change in poppyness starting about 20 years ago.

    Poppies are everywhere now, poppy sculptures, pop up poppy shops, ww2 bombers dropping poppies (what is that even supposed to mean). And the double silence as well, there used to be a silence on rememberemce Sunday. Then, in the early 00s 'the nation' started having a silence on the 11th as well.

    As someone who marched in remerenace day parades, carried the flag, laid the wreath, say in the remembrance day services it is all rather superficial yet oppressive these days.
    I don't think that's either militarisation or condemning anyone, its just that we are more dramatic about everything we do nowadays: whether that be poppies, Hallowe'en, Christmas, Easter, protesting, politics, our TV, sports, whatever. People get more engaged in everything they do and make a bigger deal about it all.
  • Options
    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    The voter registration surge continues.

    177,000 added yesterday .

    Over 140, 000 of those under 44.

  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    gambit said:

    Any idea when the bookies will pay out on a December / 2019 election?

    Probaby when Parliament is dissolved? Has the Act got Royal Assent yet?
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    nico67 said:

    The voter registration surge continues.

    177,000 added yesterday .

    Over 140, 000 of those under 44.

    I'm in both of those numbers. I moved house earlier this year and never bothered to re-register until yesterday.
  • Options
    GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,017
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Re last tweet...labour are already polling in single figures with jews...there arent many more votes they can lose.

    Especially not in Maidenhead. Is Theresa May standing btw?
    Looks like it. She has been re-adopted and the Mays were out recently canvassing for the Riverside by-election.
  • Options
    BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    edited October 2019
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Labour are never going to poll as low as 21%. Even useless gordon got 29% and labours hard left platform does now have a decent audience given the way income etc has stagnated for lower middle classes over past 10-15 years.

    It basically rests on whether Labour can squeeze the Lib Dems (by going harder left) or whether the Lib Dems can fight Labour (by being harder remain).

    Tories may lose votes to Brexit but given the lukewarm start and talk of standing aside in some seats, I'm not sure how big an effect that will be.

    Outside of any black swans, the Tory share will behave like 2017 - it ended up pretty much back where it was when the election was called.

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e5/Opinion_polling_UK_2020_election_short_axis.png
  • Options
    Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,430
    Spelling, Mike?
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,203
    Alistair said:

    ww2 bombers dropping poppies (what is that even supposed to mean).

    LOL. I've never seen that particular tawdry iteration. Maybe they are like the bombers in Slaughterhouse Five that fly over the city sucking up death and destruction to carry it away.
  • Options
    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Happy Brexit day everyone!!

    I hope you're all gearing up for the riot we were promised. When does it start? I've just got to finish hammering these nails into my baseball bat.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,052
    You [What] Gov!!!!!!! :D
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Very unpredictable and nothing can be counted on yet.

    This is an open goal for the LDs if ever there was one.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,954
    Philip_Thompson said:

    gambit said:

    Any idea when the bookies will pay out on a December / 2019 election?

    Probaby when Parliament is dissolved? Has the Act got Royal Assent yet?
    Went for Royal Assent yesterday evening iirc.
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    "General Election latest news: Corbyn to use election speech to attack entrepreneurs, as senior rabbi urges tactical votes against Labour."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/31/brexit-general-election-news-latest-boris-johnson-jeremy-corbyn/

    Headline must win some sort of prize for innuendo.
  • Options
    BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    "Corbyn to use election speech to attack entrepreneurs"

    yeah, what have .. entrepreneurs .. ever done for us!
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,065
    nico67 said:

    The voter registration surge continues.

    177,000 added yesterday .

    Over 140, 000 of those under 44.

    Where do these numbers get published?

    I understand we are attending Chesterfield College next few days to try and drive Registrations.
  • Options
    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Anorak said:

    Happy Brexit day everyone!!

    I hope you're all gearing up for the riot we were promised. When does it start? I've just got to finish hammering these nails into my baseball bat.

    I've just set fire to a dachshund, does that count?
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1189824092460982273?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1189824092460982273&ref_url=https://news.sky.com/story/political-parties-kickstart-pre-election-campaigns-11849964
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Is the Speaker Election postponed to after the election or are we going to get the farce of a new speaker for 1 day?
  • Options
    PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    Anorak said:

    Happy Brexit day everyone!!

    I hope you're all gearing up for the riot we were promised. When does it start? I've just got to finish hammering these nails into my baseball bat.

    We're trying to make a public-spirited attempt to distract potential rioters with an argument about poppy-related demonisation. By the time the exchange of anecdotes has finished we'll be well past the window of grievance and onto the next do-or-die date.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,811
    edited October 2019
    https://twitter.com/DavidLammy/status/1189819227345170432?s=20

    They told us we would leave...and we didn't....I am dead angry about that, so what we need is more delay and another vote in 6-12 months. Certainly an interesting message.
  • Options
    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    bigjohnowls said:

    nico67 said:

    The voter registration surge continues.

    177,000 added yesterday .

    Over 140, 000 of those under 44.

    Where do these numbers get published?

    I understand we are attending Chesterfield College next few days to try and drive Registrations.
    I’m on iPad so can’t link but if you put dashboard voter registration uk into your search engine you can find lots of info .
  • Options
    Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,060
    TEST
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,592
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Re last tweet...labour are already polling in single figures with jews...there arent many more votes they can lose.

    Especially not in Maidenhead. Is Theresa May standing btw?
    Yes
  • Options
    StockyStocky Posts: 9,749
    Corbyn`s resignation may come after a GE defeat. Due to this what are PBers` thoughts about the Next Labour Leader market?

    Seems to me that the MPs that head the betting, with the possible exception of Starmer, lack credibility as potential leaders.

    Further down the field Cooper is 20/1, but I guessing is hampered by the make-up of the Labour membership. It would be useful to know, if anyone has insight on this, what the hard left/soft left balance is in the membership, particularly after the raft of membership leavers that has been reported.

    Further down the field still, Benn stands out to me as a potential leader - but I haven`t confidence to back him, even at 66/1.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,811
    Fysics_Teacher said:

    TEST

    Do your students know it is?
  • Options
    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578
    Alistair said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Stocky said:

    Dura_Ace said: "I am trying to recall when this fucking pointless shit became so pervasive. I think it was after Iraq II.

    I'll salute anybody who refuses to wear one."

    Thank you Dura Ace. About time someone talked some sense over this. I refuse to wear one too. What on earth must visitors to the UK think of our obsession with this militaristic shit.

    The poppy is about remembrance and the tragedy of war, on remembrance day we say things like "never again" and "lest we forget" . . . if you think that is militaristic that is beyond me.

    As for when it became pervasive, I remember it all my life. It was just as pervasiving in my memory in the 80s and 90s.
    There was a massive change in poppyness starting about 20 years ago.

    Poppies are everywhere now, poppy sculptures, pop up poppy shops, ww2 bombers dropping poppies (what is that even supposed to mean). And the double silence as well, there used to be a silence on rememberemce Sunday. Then, in the early 00s 'the nation' started having a silence on the 11th as well.

    As someone who marched in remerenace day parades, carried the flag, laid the wreath, say in the remembrance day services it is all rather superficial yet oppressive these days.
    And it's not what those who actually lived through the war would have wanted IMO. I grew up in the 1970s when anyone over about 35 could remember the war but it was rarely mentioned. Most people saw it as a terrible experience best left in the past. I cannot remember ever wearing a poppy or attending an organised remembrance event at school. I learned recently - 50 years later - that one of my teachers had escaped from the Nazis on one of the kindertransports and all her family perished in the holocaust. This came as a complete surprise to me, these events were just not talked about at that time.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,711
    Stocky said:

    Corbyn`s resignation may come after a GE defeat. Due to this what are PBers` thoughts about the Next Labour Leader market?

    Seems to me that the MPs that head the betting, with the possible exception of Starmer, lack credibility as potential leaders.

    Further down the field Cooper is 20/1, but I guessing is hampered by the make-up of the Labour membership. It would be useful to know, if anyone has insight on this, what the hard left/soft left balance is in the membership, particularly after the raft of membership leavers that has been reported.

    Further down the field still, Benn stands out to me as a potential leader - but I haven`t confidence to back him, even at 66/1.

    They will - like the LibDems - be under big pressure to go for a woman. I wouldn't back Starmer or Benn for that reason.
  • Options
    FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    AndyJS said:

    https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1189824092460982273?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1189824092460982273&ref_url=https://news.sky.com/story/political-parties-kickstart-pre-election-campaigns-11849964

    Ann Clwyd! Not Clywd.

    The Welsh Nats will be going bananas :)
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,052
    edited October 2019
    Stocky said:

    Corbyn`s resignation may come after a GE defeat.

    He might go mid-campaign yet! :D
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,826
    Philip_Thompson said:

    FPT

    Barnesian said:

    AndyJS said:

    Barnesian said:

    The latest two polls (Survation and YouGov) together make little difference to the EMA. A slight movement away from Labour.

    Con 34.9% (-)
    Lab 24.4% (-0.2)
    LD 18.3% (+0.1)
    BXP 12.2 (+0.1)

    Con 312 (+2)
    Lab 222(-2)
    LD 46 (-)

    The next major event will be whether or not Farage decides to contest only a small number of seats.
    And where the BXP vote goes where there is no BXP candidate. I'd like to see some polling on that.

    I assume it is a mixture of ex-Tories who are unhappy with the Johnson deal, ex-Lab who are strong leavers or just pissed off and ex-UKIP voters.

    My current guess is the current 12% BXP share splits 4% Tory, 4% Lab, and 4% UKIP/NV - so BXP absence is a wash with regard to Tory and Labour.
    It wouldn't surprise me if current BXP splits more to Lab than Tory if BXP don't stand. Tory-inclined Leavers have probably already mostly returned to the Tory Party. I imagine rump BXP voters include former Labour voters who would 'die in a ditch' before voting Tory - if BXP don't stand across the country I would not bet on that helping the Tories!
    I don't agree. Wouldn't bet on it mind. :)
  • Options
    nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Re last tweet...labour are already polling in single figures with jews...there arent many more votes they can lose.

    Who will hold Finchley?
  • Options
    Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,060
    Tried to use the main site to make a comment yesterday on my iPhone, but couldn’t get it to work.

    A shame as it was a really good comment...
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,592
    AndyJS said:

    https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1189824092460982273?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1189824092460982273&ref_url=https://news.sky.com/story/political-parties-kickstart-pre-election-campaigns-11849964

    A real gem
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,811
    IanB2 said:

    Stocky said:

    Corbyn`s resignation may come after a GE defeat. Due to this what are PBers` thoughts about the Next Labour Leader market?

    Seems to me that the MPs that head the betting, with the possible exception of Starmer, lack credibility as potential leaders.

    Further down the field Cooper is 20/1, but I guessing is hampered by the make-up of the Labour membership. It would be useful to know, if anyone has insight on this, what the hard left/soft left balance is in the membership, particularly after the raft of membership leavers that has been reported.

    Further down the field still, Benn stands out to me as a potential leader - but I haven`t confidence to back him, even at 66/1.

    They will - like the LibDems - be under big pressure to go for a woman. I wouldn't back Starmer or Benn for that reason.
    And they are both far too centrist for the membership.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,592
    Fysics_Teacher said:

    Tried to use the main site to make a comment yesterday on my iPhone, but couldn’t get it to work.

    A shame as it was a really good comment...

    Same here. OK on my S9 note though
  • Options
    nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    https://mobile.twitter.com/tbonier/status/1189692365591785472
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Gina Miller has launched a tactical voting website.

    https://tactical.vote
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,613
    Ah new thread. Morning all again. So it's 31st October and we have NOT left the European Union "come what may" as Boris Johnson unequivocally promised that we would. If Johnson had not got his election the focus would have been on this failure and on his Deal, which under prolonged scrutiny would have shed appeal, exposed as being essentially the May Deal amended to capitulate to the EU's demands over Northern Ireland. The next phase could have been a world of pain for the Cons. As it is? We will see. The stars do seem to be aligning for them.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,811
    Hugh Grant has hit back after being criticised for not shaking Chancellor Sajid Javid's hand at a film premiere.

    In an interview with ES Magazine, Mr Javid said he put his hand out to the Hollywood star and said "lovely to meet you" - but Grant refused to shake it.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-50246099

    What a total knob.
  • Options
    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Labour are never going to poll as low as 21%. Even useless gordon got 29% and labours hard left platform does now have a decent audience given the way income etc has stagnated for lower middle classes over past 10-15 years.

    In part an unintended consequence of the minimum wage. It acts to level down pay rates.
  • Options
    Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,060
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Fysics_Teacher said:

    TEST

    Do your students know it is?
    1. Derive Kepler’s Third Law of Planetary Motion from Newton’s Law of Gravitation and Second Law of Motion...
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,263
    Stocky said:

    Corbyn`s resignation may come after a GE defeat. Due to this what are PBers` thoughts about the Next Labour Leader market?

    Seems to me that the MPs that head the betting, with the possible exception of Starmer, lack credibility as potential leaders.

    Further down the field Cooper is 20/1, but I guessing is hampered by the make-up of the Labour membership. It would be useful to know, if anyone has insight on this, what the hard left/soft left balance is in the membership, particularly after the raft of membership leavers that has been reported.

    Further down the field still, Benn stands out to me as a potential leader - but I haven`t confidence to back him, even at 66/1.

    Let's see who holds their seats first, if Labour does so badly Corbyn has to resign.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,065
    https://twitter.com/CorbynASAP/status/1189836791760740355/photo/1
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,575
    I'm already fed up with Labour's class war BS, and it's not even midday of the first day yet. I wasn't likely to be persuaded by their campaign, but this one seems particularly risible.

    p.s. Labour, Richard Burgon is not an asset. I don't know why you send him out to talk to the media.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,282
    AndyJS said:

    Gina Miller has launched a tactical voting website.

    https://tactical.vote

    Interestingly it says that one should vote Labour in Woking.
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    bigjohnowls said:

    https://twitter.com/CorbynASAP/status/1189836791760740355/photo/1

    The author is aware, presumably, that you carve scary things into pumpkins?
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    AndyJS said:

    Gina Miller has launched a tactical voting website.

    https://tactical.vote

    Can we have a tactical vote website on which tactical vote website to use?
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    Philip_Thompson said:

    nico67 said:

    The voter registration surge continues.

    177,000 added yesterday .

    Over 140, 000 of those under 44.

    I'm in both of those numbers. I moved house earlier this year and never bothered to re-register until yesterday.
    Right. In 2017, we also saw planet of attempted registrations for people who are already registered, but weren't sure.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2019
    tlg86 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Gina Miller has launched a tactical voting website.

    https://tactical.vote

    Interestingly it says that one should vote Labour in Woking.
    That sounds like very bad advice to me. They need to get some of us amateur psephologists working on it.

    Hang on — it tells people to vote Labour in Wokingham. Jesus.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,065
    MarqueeMark said:

    Stocky said:

    Corbyn`s resignation may come after a GE defeat. Due to this what are PBers` thoughts about the Next Labour Leader market?

    Seems to me that the MPs that head the betting, with the possible exception of Starmer, lack credibility as potential leaders.

    Further down the field Cooper is 20/1, but I guessing is hampered by the make-up of the Labour membership. It would be useful to know, if anyone has insight on this, what the hard left/soft left balance is in the membership, particularly after the raft of membership leavers that has been reported.

    Further down the field still, Benn stands out to me as a potential leader - but I haven`t confidence to back him, even at 66/1.

    Let's see who holds their seats first, if Labour does so badly Corbyn has to resign.
    IMO Corbyn will resign if he isnt in Number 10

    The new leader betting as well as considering the current Membership ought to also consider that will change significantly once Jezza goes.
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,575
    edited October 2019
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    AndyJS said:

    Gina Miller has launched a tactical voting website.

    https://tactical.vote

    Can we have a tactical vote website on which tactical vote website to use?
    What is to stop some naughty people setting up a whole series of deliberately misleading tactical voting sites?
  • Options
    StockyStocky Posts: 9,749
    AndyJS said:

    "Gina Miller has launched a tactical voting website."

    If Farage decides to fight every consituency I wonder whether her website will tell folk to vote for The Brexit Party where most likely to defeat the Tories!
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,811
    philiph said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Labour are never going to poll as low as 21%. Even useless gordon got 29% and labours hard left platform does now have a decent audience given the way income etc has stagnated for lower middle classes over past 10-15 years.

    In part an unintended consequence of the minimum wage. It acts to level down pay rates.
    It is actually a phenomenon across the Western world, and most economists put it to down to the increase competition for the jobs / skills of a particular demographic from globalisation.

    The fact that the affected segment of society are still incredibly rich by world standards isn't seen / felt / easy to explain to somebody who isn't better off than they were 10-15 years ago.

    A big difference from the past is that a large proportion of who were lower middle class moved to up over the course of 10-15 years to be replaced by poorer segments as people got promoted etc etc etc (and rinse and repeat the cycle), It seems since the crash that isn't happening as much in the western world, but in places like China it is at incredible rate.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,065
    I see in response to 4 new Bank Holiday proposal from Labour!!

    BREAKING: Tories unveil election pledge for 3 new Bank Holidays - 29 March, 31 October and 31 January - to celebrate their utter failure and ineptitude at implementing Brexit.
  • Options
    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,856
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    https://twitter.com/CorbynASAP/status/1189836791760740355/photo/1

    The author is aware, presumably, that you carve scary things into pumpkins?
    Stocky said:

    Corbyn`s resignation may come after a GE defeat. Due to this what are PBers` thoughts about the Next Labour Leader market?

    Seems to me that the MPs that head the betting, with the possible exception of Starmer, lack credibility as potential leaders.

    Further down the field Cooper is 20/1, but I guessing is hampered by the make-up of the Labour membership. It would be useful to know, if anyone has insight on this, what the hard left/soft left balance is in the membership, particularly after the raft of membership leavers that has been reported.

    Further down the field still, Benn stands out to me as a potential leader - but I haven`t confidence to back him, even at 66/1.

    I guess one dynamic we are less likely to see is centre left MPs "lending" their vote to some left wing lunatic in the initial stages, though I guess there are now a lot more left wing MPs now than last time?
  • Options
    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,856
    GIN1138 said:

    Stocky said:

    Corbyn`s resignation may come after a GE defeat.

    He might go mid-campaign yet! :D
    A forlorn hope!
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,613
    Stocky said:

    Corbyn`s resignation may come after a GE defeat. Due to this what are PBers` thoughts about the Next Labour Leader market?

    Seems to me that the MPs that head the betting, with the possible exception of Starmer, lack credibility as potential leaders.

    Further down the field Cooper is 20/1, but I guessing is hampered by the make-up of the Labour membership. It would be useful to know, if anyone has insight on this, what the hard left/soft left balance is in the membership, particularly after the raft of membership leavers that has been reported.

    Further down the field still, Benn stands out to me as a potential leader - but I haven`t confidence to back him, even at 66/1.

    I'm a member and will probably vote for Laura Pidcock if she stands.
  • Options
    PierrotPierrot Posts: 112
    BannedInParis said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Labour are never going to poll as low as 21%. Even useless gordon got 29% and labours hard left platform does now have a decent audience given the way income etc has stagnated for lower middle classes over past 10-15 years.

    It basically rests on whether Labour can squeeze the Lib Dems (by going harder left) or whether the Lib Dems can fight Labour (by being harder remain).

    Tories may lose votes to Brexit but given the lukewarm start and talk of standing aside in some seats, I'm not sure how big an effect that will be.

    Outside of any black swans, the Tory share will behave like 2017 - it ended up pretty much back where it was when the election was called.

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e5/Opinion_polling_UK_2020_election_short_axis.png
    ...leaving Labour with only ~9% to collect from third parties in 2019 if they are to catch up with the Tory poll showing, as compared with the ~18% they achieved in 2017. In a sense this election is everybody versus Labour. Nigel Farage is bigger than any TIG player but his party may turn out to be almost as short-lived as a serious contender for having much of an effect. Jeremy Corbyn needs to win votes from previous non-voters, which is why he is focusing on poverty. I've encountered some Labour Leave voters too who say they will be staying at home this time. It could be very close. Another hung parliament would be dramatic.

  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2019
    Gina Miller's tactical voting website invites people to vote Labour in Wokingham.

    Wokingham is one of the top targets for the LDs, where Tory defector Phillip Lee is standing for the yellows.
  • Options
    StockyStocky Posts: 9,749
    Nigel_Formain said: "I guess one dynamic we are less likely to see is centre left MPs "lending" their vote to some left wing lunatic in the initial stages, though I guess there are now a lot more left wing MPs now than last time?"

    Maybe in the event of a left wing candidate contest, some left wing MPs will lend their votes to a "Blairite" candidate in the interest of fairness?
  • Options
    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,856
    Anorak said:

    Happy Brexit day everyone!!

    I hope you're all gearing up for the riot we were promised. When does it start? I've just got to finish hammering these nails into my baseball bat.

    lol. I keep looking in ditches round here and haven't yet spotted a fat bloke with scruffy blond hair who needs defibrillating
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    nico67 said:

    The voter registration surge continues.

    177,000 added yesterday .

    Over 140, 000 of those under 44.

    I'm in both of those numbers. I moved house earlier this year and never bothered to re-register until yesterday.
    Right. In 2017, we also saw planet of attempted registrations for people who are already registered, but weren't sure.
    Interesting, I suppose 'better safe than sorry' concerns.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,526
    https://twitter.com/jmsclee/status/1189840473176842242?s=20
  • Options
    PierrotPierrot Posts: 112
    bigjohnowls said:

    I see in response to 4 new Bank Holiday proposal from Labour!!

    BREAKING: Tories unveil election pledge for 3 new Bank Holidays - 29 March, 31 October and 31 January - to celebrate their utter failure and ineptitude at implementing Brexit.

    Don't forget 12 April!
  • Options
    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited October 2019
    Fysics_Teacher said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Fysics_Teacher said:

    TEST

    Do your students know it is?
    1. Derive Kepler’s Third Law of Planetary Motion from Newton’s Law of Gravitation and Second Law of Motion...
    ... without assuming circular motion.
  • Options
    StockyStocky Posts: 9,749
    kinabalu said: "I'm a member and will probably vote for Laura Pidcock if she stands."

    Thanks for that - interesting. I had her down as one of the less credible candidates! Do you know whether the hard left still have a stranglehold on membership - like they did when they elected Corbyn?
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    SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    Philip_Thompson said:


    It wouldn't surprise me if current BXP splits more to Lab than Tory if BXP don't stand. Tory-inclined Leavers have probably already mostly returned to the Tory Party. I imagine rump BXP voters include former Labour voters who would 'die in a ditch' before voting Tory - if BXP don't stand across the country I would not bet on that helping the Tories!

    My guess would be that if you are motivated enough to want to vote for TBP then leaving the EU is probably your main driving force.

    TBP standing down in seats won't necessarily mean those potential voters will swing behind the Tories but it may well demotivate them such that they don't turn out at all.

    Nobody will know after the event of course.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Theuniondivvie said:

    https://twitter.com/jmsclee/status/1189840473176842242?s=20

    Very funny.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 19,068
    Is there a presenter currently working for the BBC who is less well informed than Emma Barnett? Admittedly she interviews some very stupid guests-none more so than her current one-Labour MP Lloyd Russell- Moyle but to claim the BBC employs the son of the director general of the BBC should al least cost her her job.
  • Options
    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,856
    Stocky said:

    Nigel_Formain said: "I guess one dynamic we are less likely to see is centre left MPs "lending" their vote to some left wing lunatic in the initial stages, though I guess there are now a lot more left wing MPs now than last time?"

    Maybe in the event of a left wing candidate contest, some left wing MPs will lend their votes to a "Blairite" candidate in the interest of fairness?

    Another forlorn hope!
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,589
    bigjohnowls said:

    I see in response to 4 new Bank Holiday proposal from Labour!!

    BREAKING: Tories unveil election pledge for 3 new Bank Holidays - 29 March, 31 October and 31 January - to celebrate their utter failure and ineptitude at implementing Brexit.

    Boris Days ?
  • Options
    ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    Nigelb said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    I see in response to 4 new Bank Holiday proposal from Labour!!

    BREAKING: Tories unveil election pledge for 3 new Bank Holidays - 29 March, 31 October and 31 January - to celebrate their utter failure and ineptitude at implementing Brexit.

    Boris Days ?
    Boris Breaks.
  • Options
    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,856
    Is it at all possible that Labour could actually choose someone worse than Jeremy Corbyn? Sadly I think that is possible!
  • Options
    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    bigjohnowls said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Stocky said:

    Corbyn`s resignation may come after a GE defeat. Due to this what are PBers` thoughts about the Next Labour Leader market?

    Seems to me that the MPs that head the betting, with the possible exception of Starmer, lack credibility as potential leaders.

    Further down the field Cooper is 20/1, but I guessing is hampered by the make-up of the Labour membership. It would be useful to know, if anyone has insight on this, what the hard left/soft left balance is in the membership, particularly after the raft of membership leavers that has been reported.

    Further down the field still, Benn stands out to me as a potential leader - but I haven`t confidence to back him, even at 66/1.

    Let's see who holds their seats first, if Labour does so badly Corbyn has to resign.
    IMO Corbyn will resign if he isnt in Number 10

    The new leader betting as well as considering the current Membership ought to also consider that will change significantly once Jezza goes.
    And leave deputy Tom Watson as temporary leader.

    I doubt it. He may say he is leaving when a new leader is elected by conference in the autumn.
  • Options
    Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,060
    YBarddCwsc said:

    Fysics_Teacher said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Fysics_Teacher said:

    TEST

    Do your students know it is?
    1. Derive Kepler’s Third Law of Planetary Motion from Newton’s Law of Gravitation and Second Law of Motion...
    ... without assuming circular motion.
    That would be Kepler’s First Law of course.
  • Options
    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited October 2019
    Fenster said:

    AndyJS said:

    https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1189824092460982273?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1189824092460982273&ref_url=https://news.sky.com/story/political-parties-kickstart-pre-election-campaigns-11849964

    Ann Clwyd! Not Clywd.

    The Welsh Nats will be going bananas :)
    Not just Welsh Nats....

    It is just common courtesy to spell someone's name correctly, even if they have a funny "foreign sounding" name !!
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    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,856
    Pierrot said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    I see in response to 4 new Bank Holiday proposal from Labour!!

    BREAKING: Tories unveil election pledge for 3 new Bank Holidays - 29 March, 31 October and 31 January - to celebrate their utter failure and ineptitude at implementing Brexit.

    Don't forget 12 April!
    ..and the First of April to celebrate us having a clown as a PM and a fool as LoTO.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,257
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Anorak said:

    Happy Brexit day everyone!!

    I hope you're all gearing up for the riot we were promised. When does it start? I've just got to finish hammering these nails into my baseball bat.

    lol. I keep looking in ditches round here and haven't yet spotted a fat bloke with scruffy blond hair who needs defibrillating
    Round here Priti Patel would be trying to resuscitate him!
  • Options
    nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    AndyJS said:

    Gina Miller's tactical voting website invites people to vote Labour in Wokingham.

    Wokingham is one of the top targets for the LDs, where Tory defector Phillip Lee is standing for the yellows.

    This tactical voting site is going to backfire on the REMAIN parties isnt it?
  • Options
    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,856
    OldKingCole said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Anorak said:

    Happy Brexit day everyone!!

    I hope you're all gearing up for the riot we were promised. When does it start? I've just got to finish hammering these nails into my baseball bat.

    lol. I keep looking in ditches round here and haven't yet spotted a fat bloke with scruffy blond hair who needs defibrillating
    Round here Priti Patel would be trying to resuscitate him!
    Cripes!
  • Options
    nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    https://twitter.com/CorbynASAP/status/1189836791760740355/photo/1

    The author is aware, presumably, that you carve scary things into pumpkins?
    Yea. JC as PM is frightening!
  • Options
    nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Anorak said:

    Happy Brexit day everyone!!

    I hope you're all gearing up for the riot we were promised. When does it start? I've just got to finish hammering these nails into my baseball bat.

    lol. I keep looking in ditches round here and haven't yet spotted a fat bloke with scruffy blond hair who needs defibrillating
    Round here Priti Patel would be trying to resuscitate him!
    Cripes!
    Wouldn't mind Priti Patel resuscitating me, tbh
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,954
    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1189855294928687106
  • Options
    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,038
    Pulpstar said:

    Barnesian said:

    AndyJS said:

    Barnesian said:

    The latest two polls (Survation and YouGov) together make little difference to the EMA. A slight movement away from Labour.

    Con 34.9% (-)
    Lab 24.4% (-0.2)
    LD 18.3% (+0.1)
    BXP 12.2 (+0.1)

    Con 312 (+2)
    Lab 222(-2)
    LD 46 (-)

    The next major event will be whether or not Farage decides to contest only a small number of seats.
    And where the BXP vote goes where there is no BXP candidate. I'd like to see some polling on that.

    I assume it is a mixture of ex-Tories who are unhappy with the Johnson deal, ex-Lab who are strong leavers or just pissed off and ex-UKIP voters.

    My current guess is the current 12% BXP share splits 4% Tory, 4% Lab, and 4% UKIP/NV - so BXP absence is a wash with regard to Tory and Labour.
    I think the remaining split would be slightly more favourable to the Tories than that. Something like 4 Tory, 2 Lab, 6 Won't vote.
    Could be. We need data! It will vary depending on the type of constituency of course. If it is a Labour Leave seat, there may be more ex Labour in the BXP box.
  • Options
    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578
    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said: "I'm a member and will probably vote for Laura Pidcock if she stands."

    Thanks for that - interesting. I had her down as one of the less credible candidates! Do you know whether the hard left still have a stranglehold on membership - like they did when they elected Corbyn?

    Judging by the complete failure of hard left attempts to deselect MPs the answer to that seems to be no. Despite all the sound and fury not a single deselection attempt has succeeded and there is only one case in which the process is still going on, which is Roger Godsiff and he is widely disliked by all sides, partly because of his support for the Birmingham school protestors.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1189855294928687106

    No chicken counting but I would definitely take that result! And that's with Scotland separate too . . .
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    Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,060
    So we have had two tactical voting websites mentioned so far, one of which seems to default to “Vote LD” and the other to “Vote Labour”. Are they going to end up cancelling out?
  • Options
    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,038
    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Barnesian said:

    The latest two polls (Survation and YouGov) together make little difference to the EMA. A slight movement away from Labour.

    Con 34.9% (-)
    Lab 24.4% (-0.2)
    LD 18.3% (+0.1)
    BXP 12.2 (+0.1)

    Con 312 (+2)
    Lab 222(-2)
    LD 46 (-)

    I don't know where those figures are coming from, but I simply do not believe that a 10.5% Tory-Lab lead will result in the Tories winning 5 fewer seats than they did in 2017!

    Those polling figures are not far off 2015 besides the Lib Dems but with a bigger Tory lead over Labour, yet supposedly Tories will win 18 fewer than they did in 2015 while Labor will win 10 fewer than they did in 2015? That makes no sense!
    Tories win 19 seats off Labour but lose seats to SNP and LDs.
    The 4% swing from Labour to the Tories you have actually sees the Tories gain 38 Labour seats on UNS, not 19

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative
    I use 80% UNS and 20% multiplicative. UNS has the problem that it is uniform. It adds the same share to every constituency. The multiplicative multiplies the share recognising that the absolute increase in share is likely to be higher where the original share is higher. So that's one difference. There are also tactical voting differences (reduces Tory gains from Labour by 8 seats) and allocation of the green share. It's matching quite well with the individual constituency polls but they are small samples so not much comfort.

    Electoral calculus is quite crude.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,954
    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1189854565216268288

    This was when Labour actually had effective politicians of course.

This discussion has been closed.