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  • Labour need to get on board for their own credible future.

    It only needs 92 labour mps who want a future
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,616
    Artist said:

    nunuone said:

    I guess Johnson (and Corbyn) will not want to be seen to dance to the Lib Dems' tune so this is not likely to get anywhere. Such a bill would need either government support or an SO 24 motion to get parliamentary time. And, of course, MPs have no control over the length of the A50 extension the EU might offer.

    Boris will take it.

    He wants an election badly.
    I get the impression the Tories went for the 12th December knowing it would be changed to 5th December by the opposition. They probably don't care either way.
    Just make it the end of November. Who needs a long campaign? If you are changing one law, change two.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,055
    Why bother to amend the FTPA? Why not just scrap it?

    At least this way I get to vote. I'm scheduled to fly somewhere sunny on 12/12.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052

    Mauve said:

    Mauve said:

    I haven't had time recently to got through the polling data in detail, but are they still having to upweight leave voters to reach a 52/48 split? Is the polls incorrectly basing Brexit sentiment and enthusiasm on a vote from 3 years ago Corbyn's only hope? After 5 weeks of an election campaign where voters are told that Boris' deal is just the start of even more negotiations will they really still want to "get Brexit done"?

    I live in a bubble in Remainer-central, so can't say anything off anecdotal reports as no one will admit to voting to leave round here, but I do wonder if most people really care that much about Brexit. Voters' views reflect what's on the news - in a GE campaign there will be discussion of stuff other than Brexit, so how will the main parties' policies on other issues go down (if they even have any)?

    Boris has just had his QS passed and there is the manifesto plus a few popular bits added
    Unfortunately the QS got completely overtaken by Brexit drama on the news, so I have no idea what was in it. The result barely seemed to be reported in the papers. I'd actually have been quite interested in knowing what the non-Brexit related policies are, as other than Brexit I'm much closer to the Tories than Labour politically. I read something about Priti Patel wanting to recruit more police, but other than that have no idea what the government proposed. If I'm that clueless about it, as someone who follows politics more closely than average, then what will the average voter have taken away from it all?
    Nothing really but the point is that will be their manifesto including 20,000 more police, 40 new hospitals, big uplift in the pupil premium, and £9 per hour minimum wage for all 21s plus
    It is NOT 40 new hospitals. Total spin from the party previously known as conservative.
    And pie in the sky, while they can't even get work restarted on the Midland Metropolitan Hospital.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Danny565 said:

    Hmm, looks like I might have to eat my words about there not being an election this year.

    As such, I may as well make another prediction which will blow up in my face: both the Tories and Labour are going to do better than polls currently predict. I'll say something like 42% for the Tories, 37% for Labour.

    It's going to be Clinton/Trump all over again: people thought those two being so unpopular meant third parties would surge, but, in the end, so many people thought one of the two options was so grotesque that they ended up going with someone they thought was only mildly grotesque.

    Labour to have another amazing campaign that raises them from 25% to 37%?
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    edited October 2019

    Am I supposed to be impressed?
    Yes.
    It failed.
    You have no soul.
    Yes I have, but it does not get excited by a bunch of blokes sticking their tongues out, waving their arms around and grinding their groins up and down in the air.

    England produced their greatest ever performance today, even better than 2003.

    Though when we lose to Wales next week we'd have preferred to have been destroyed 76 nil by the All Blacks.

    Were they playing cricket today? I did not know Wales played cricket.
  • DougSeal said:

    welshowl said:

    Mauve said:

    I haven't had time recently to got through the polling data in detail, but are they still having to upweight leave voters to reach a 52/48 split? Is the polls incorrectly basing Brexit sentiment and enthusiasm on a vote from 3 years ago Corbyn's only hope? After 5 weeks of an election campaign where voters are told that Boris' deal is just the start of even more negotiations will they really still want to "get Brexit done"?

    I live in a bubble in Remainer-central, so can't say anything off anecdotal reports as no one will admit to voting to leave round here, but I do wonder if most people really care that much about Brexit. Voters' views reflect what's on the news - in a GE campaign there will be discussion of stuff other than Brexit, so how will the main parties' policies on other issues go down (if they even have any)?

    Corbyn's major hope is that the electorate has changed a lot since 2016 and 2017.

    There's been 100,000s of voters added to the electoral roll that have disproportionately come from the 3 million EU citizens who weren't eligible to vote in general elections.
    Well unless they’ve successfully acquired British citizenship, or are citizens or Ireland Malta or Cyprus they’re still not eligible to vote in a GE.

    How may have acquired citizenship? Genuine question.
    I did see a figure of 400,000 applications since June 2016 earlier on this year.

    Alastair also did a piece on why the electorate may have changed since 2016 and why reweighting back to 52:48 maybe wrong.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/09/06/the-remainers-of-the-day-why-are-pollsters-consistently-finding-more-remainers-than-you-would-expect/
    According to the Immigration Service 42,037 EU citizens became British citizens in 2018. Up from 25,000 in 2017.
    Our immigration team has never been busier with citizenship applications
    I suspect there will be a lot more this year. As I said a few days ago I have sponsored/referreed 3 friends this year. But the numbers of EU citizens taking British citizenship in 2017 and 2018 was a lot less than I expected.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,616

    Labour need to get on board for their own credible future.

    It only needs 92 labour mps who want a future
    Not sure there are that many who do.....
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,570
    edited October 2019
    Fishing said:

    Why bother to amend the FTPA? Why not just scrap it?

    At least this way I get to vote. I'm scheduled to fly somewhere sunny on 12/12.

    I believe because it replaced a Royal Prerogative. Under our law once a prerogative has been removed it cannot be reinstated. That means that scrapping the FTPA would require a completely new set of laws regarding the ability to call elections.
  • Fishing said:

    Why bother to amend the FTPA? Why not just scrap it?

    At least this way I get to vote. I'm scheduled to fly somewhere sunny on 12/12.

    You can get a postal vote. Indeed I expect the highest ever postal vote election
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Why do elections have to be on Thursday’s .

    As for the Lib Dem plan Bozo won’t accept it because the spoilt brat has to have everything his own way .

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,616
    Boris to kick off his election campaign with a reception for England World Cup Winners - rugby and cricket - at 10 Downing Street?

    Boris - full of win!
  • nico67 said:

    Why do elections have to be on Thursday’s .

    As for the Lib Dem plan Bozo won’t accept it because the spoilt brat has to have everything his own way .

    He will if labour refuse to vote for
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    Fishing said:

    Why bother to amend the FTPA? Why not just scrap it?

    At least this way I get to vote. I'm scheduled to fly somewhere sunny on 12/12.

    You can get a postal vote. Indeed I expect the highest ever postal vote election
    Vote early, vote often?

    All 105% of the electorate voting for Boris? ;)

    :D:D:D
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,133
    edited October 2019

    Boris to kick off his election campaign with a reception for England World Cup Winners - rugby and cricket - at 10 Downing Street?

    Boris - full of win!

    Genius but maybe Wales world cup winners, even better
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,679
    edited October 2019

    Boris to kick off his election campaign with a reception for England World Cup Winners - rugby and cricket - at 10 Downing Street?

    Boris - full of win!

    Not going to happen, England's cricket world cup winners are in New Zealand and all of November.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    Labour need to get on board for their own credible future.

    It only needs 92 labour mps who want a future
    There are quite a few who can hang on to their jobs quite a bit longer if they keep refusing the election. 2022 is years away.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited October 2019
    AndyJS said:

    Danny565 said:

    Hmm, looks like I might have to eat my words about there not being an election this year.

    As such, I may as well make another prediction which will blow up in my face: both the Tories and Labour are going to do better than polls currently predict. I'll say something like 42% for the Tories, 37% for Labour.

    It's going to be Clinton/Trump all over again: people thought those two being so unpopular meant third parties would surge, but, in the end, so many people thought one of the two options was so grotesque that they ended up going with someone they thought was only mildly grotesque.

    Labour to have another amazing campaign that raises them from 25% to 37%?
    The funny thing is that people who think Corbyn is fundamentally crap should be more concerned about the potential for a 2017 repeat.

    If your view is that Labour's result in 2017 was caused by Corbyn being an uncharacteristically great performer for a few weeks, and by people loving Labour's policies...then yeah, there's reason to think that was a one-time deal which won't repeat this time.

    If, on the other hand, you think Corbyn did not run a particularly great campaign last time, that people weren't especially enamoured by Labour's policies, that Labour's result was just caused by people defaulting to Labour as the lesser evil (because they just wanted to stop a Tory landslide / wanted to stop Brexit / didn't take much persuading to believe the Tories were evil and so overreacted to things like the 'dementia tax')....then why wouldn't those same dynamics assert themselves this time? There's still going to be a hell of a lot of people (even if they're currently telling pollsters that they'll vote LibDem or Green) who want to stop a Tory landslide / stop Brexit / are predisposed to believing bad interpretations of Tory policy.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,707
    So in summary all the parties want an election but they want to be the ones that brought it about, basically. The net result is, no one know when the sodding election will be if it even ever happens.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    Fishing said:

    Why bother to amend the FTPA? Why not just scrap it?

    At least this way I get to vote. I'm scheduled to fly somewhere sunny on 12/12.

    I believe because it replaced a Royal Prerogative. Under our law once a prerogative has been removed it cannot be reinstated. That means that scrapping the FTPA would require a completely new set of laws regarding the ability to call elections.
    It also repealed the septennial act. If FTPA was repealed there'd be no limit on the length of a parliament.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    justin124 said:

    valleyboy said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    What's in it for them?

    Labour getting marmalised for the LibDems - possibly replacing the DUP as the power brokers in a hung Parliament; SNP getting a mandate for another referendum.

    That Labour haven't spotted this route is weird - we've all been talking about it on here for weeks.

    Nobody's spotted Tory Swinson is a Tory enabler?

    I think they have.
    Sheer madness by the Libs. A Tory win and brexit on Johnson's terms almost inevitable. Swinson can kiss her revocation or referendum goodbye. She may as well kiss Johnsons arse She must be a Tory in disguise.
    Quick calculation not sure, unless a load of Labour vote for it, that it will get through.
    It would probably be pretty helpful to Labour - adding credence to the Tory Little Helper theme. Not good for SNP in Scotland either.
    Why bad for SNP. LD's will go nowhere in Scotland, they are crap.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    nico67 said:

    Why do elections have to be on Thursday’s .

    As for the Lib Dem plan Bozo won’t accept it because the spoilt brat has to have everything his own way .

    Wasn't it to do with avoiding employers coercing their employees?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,724
    Danny565 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Danny565 said:

    Hmm, looks like I might have to eat my words about there not being an election this year.

    As such, I may as well make another prediction which will blow up in my face: both the Tories and Labour are going to do better than polls currently predict. I'll say something like 42% for the Tories, 37% for Labour.

    It's going to be Clinton/Trump all over again: people thought those two being so unpopular meant third parties would surge, but, in the end, so many people thought one of the two options was so grotesque that they ended up going with someone they thought was only mildly grotesque.

    Labour to have another amazing campaign that raises them from 25% to 37%?
    The funny thing is that people who think Corbyn is fundamentally crap should be more concerned about the potential for a 2017 repeat.

    If your view is that Labour's result in 2017 was caused by Corbyn being an uncharacteristically great performer for a few weeks, and by people loving Labour's policies...then yeah, there's reason to think that was a one-time deal which won't repeat this time.

    If, on the other hand, you think Corbyn did not run a particularly great campaign last time, that people weren't especially enamoured by Labour's policies, that Labour's result was just caused by people defaulting to Labour as the lesser evil (because they just wanted to stop a Tory landslide / wanted to stop Brexit / didn't take much persuading to believe the Tories were evil and so overreacted to things like the 'dementia tax')....then why wouldn't those same dynamics assert themselves this time?
    I agree, the lesser evil argument is a strong one. It won't be quite so marked as 2017 imo. There may well be more effective tactical voting though.
  • malcolmg said:

    justin124 said:

    valleyboy said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    What's in it for them?

    Labour getting marmalised for the LibDems - possibly replacing the DUP as the power brokers in a hung Parliament; SNP getting a mandate for another referendum.

    That Labour haven't spotted this route is weird - we've all been talking about it on here for weeks.

    Nobody's spotted Tory Swinson is a Tory enabler?

    I think they have.
    Sheer madness by the Libs. A Tory win and brexit on Johnson's terms almost inevitable. Swinson can kiss her revocation or referendum goodbye. She may as well kiss Johnsons arse She must be a Tory in disguise.
    Quick calculation not sure, unless a load of Labour vote for it, that it will get through.
    It would probably be pretty helpful to Labour - adding credence to the Tory Little Helper theme. Not good for SNP in Scotland either.
    Why bad for SNP. LD's will go nowhere in Scotland, they are crap.
    It is always bad for the SNP in Scotland according to Justin

    Hope you are still enjoying your holiday Malc
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited October 2019
    Danny565 said:


    If, on the other hand, you think Corbyn did not run a particularly great campaign last time, that people weren't especially enamoured by Labour's policies, that Labour's result was just caused by people defaulting to Labour as the lesser evil (because they just wanted to stop a Tory landslide / wanted to stop Brexit / didn't take much persuading to believe the Tories were evil and so overreacted to things like the 'dementia tax')....then why wouldn't those same dynamics assert themselves this time?

    Because Boris Johnson is much better at politics and cares much less about policy than Theresa May.

    Theresa May looked at the problems she thought needed solving and made proposals to fix them like the dementia tax, which was easy to demagogue. Boris Johnson will work out what the voters want to hear, and pretend he's going to give them that.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,724

    Danny565 said:


    If, on the other hand, you think Corbyn did not run a particularly great campaign last time, that people weren't especially enamoured by Labour's policies, that Labour's result was just caused by people defaulting to Labour as the lesser evil (because they just wanted to stop a Tory landslide / wanted to stop Brexit / didn't take much persuading to believe the Tories were evil and so overreacted to things like the 'dementia tax')....then why wouldn't those same dynamics assert themselves this time?

    Because Boris Johnson is much better at politics and cares much less about policy than Theresa May.

    Theresa May looked at the problems she thought needed solving and made proposals to fix them like the dementia tax, which was easy to demagogue. Boris Johnson will work out what the voters want ro hear, and pretend he's going to give them that.
    I don't think that we will have a Dec election, but if we do, I expect BoZo's dislike of scrutiny and absence of detail to be major issues.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    RobD said:

    Elections not on a Thursday? What madness is this.

    There is something comforting about the Thursday election day tradition.

    I am not saying that it can't be changed. But it would be better to move it to a Sunday than a different weekday if change is really necessary (which I don't believe it is)
    Sunday would be problematic. I think I've voted in churches in two different constituencies in general elections, out of five general elections in four different constituencies.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited October 2019
    nico67 said:

    Why do elections have to be on Thursday’s .

    As for the Lib Dem plan Bozo won’t accept it because the spoilt brat has to have everything his own way .

    Obviously there's nothing sacred about Thursdays, but accepting any weekday as being arbitrary their explanation for wanting it on that day doesn't make much sense to me either. Lacking a good reason to move it, why change the convention of it being Thursday? That's my general approach with conventions - why shift something that developed over time without a reason?

    Presumably the planned amendment to the FTPA will set a new 'fixed' date to aim for, so we aren't in theory committed to December elections on a fixed cycle though.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,878
    FPT (but probably on topic) - I'm a bit slow with my thread updates:

    kle4 said:

    sirclive said:

    kle4 said:

    nico67 said:

    What’s worse for Corbyn , the Tories going into an election after Brexit of before.

    Difficult decision .

    After. Before has its problems, the Tories could clean up the Brexit vote and keep Tory remain voters satisfied with some kind of deal, but it at least has the chance of BXP spoiling the Tory party, and the inherent strength of the Labour brand plus the hope of Corbyn repeating his campaigning skills of last time, resulting in either mitigating the bad result, or who knows even preventing a Tory win. That may not be considered likely, but it has a chance.

    Conversely, if the election takes place after Brexit what harm is there for angry Remain voters in voting for the most passionately remain party, the LDs? The Tories will already have achieved a terrible thing, off the back of Labour rebel votes no less, so more chance someone decides they can punish Labour?

    Before but for a different reason - the outlet for remainers will be LDs, squeezing the Labour vote massively. After Brexit, the LD's will not be as attractive since many people will have given up on the outcome.
    An interesting theory, one which many people hold. I think Labour will hold up before Brexit by people holding their noses and voting tactically, otherwise Brexit might happen. I just don't think remainers will shoot themselves in the foot by mass voting for the LDs.
    I think, in a GE, despite it offering the 'best' chance for Remain that they're screwed.

    If everyone who wanted to Remain voted LD, then LD would probably landslide it on 45% of the vote.

    The problem is tribalism. Coming from Bootle I see it daily, and see it first hand.
    "Do you want to stop Brexit?" "Yes! I hate it. I want to Remain. Anything to Remain!".
    "So, you'll be voting Lib Dem then?" "What? Eh?! No... I'm voting Labour! LABOUR."
    "But they don't support Remain. Best you get is a 2nd Ref, and even then they haven't committed to campaigning for Remain, they've left the door open to leaving with 'their' deal."

    At this point, you should usually see a 'head explodes' scene as they realise the incompatibility of this position with their hatred of Brexit. But you don't. Instead its a simple and calm, "That's not true; and even if it were, I'm still voting Labour."

    Labour almost certainly won't get less than 25% in a GE. And massive vote efficiency probably ensures at least 160 seats, if not more.

    It means Remain are doomed, because a good chunk of that 25%, if they switched to LD would deliver a LD minority government. But the tribals can't do it. They can't not vote Labour. They have to vote Labour. It's the law.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    So in summary all the parties want an election but they want to be the ones that brought it about, basically. The net result is, no one know when the sodding election will be if it even ever happens.

    Meanwhile, in 5 days time, we crash out of the EU without any sort of WA.

    It’s kinda important but is in danger of being forgotten. Or are we just assuming that the French will agree to an extension.....?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,616

    Boris to kick off his election campaign with a reception for England World Cup Winners - rugby and cricket - at 10 Downing Street?

    Boris - full of win!

    Genius but maybe Wales world cup winners, even better
    Top two in the world - let's start with that!
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    Danny565 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Danny565 said:

    Hmm, looks like I might have to eat my words about there not being an election this year.

    As such, I may as well make another prediction which will blow up in my face: both the Tories and Labour are going to do better than polls currently predict. I'll say something like 42% for the Tories, 37% for Labour.

    It's going to be Clinton/Trump all over again: people thought those two being so unpopular meant third parties would surge, but, in the end, so many people thought one of the two options was so grotesque that they ended up going with someone they thought was only mildly grotesque.

    Labour to have another amazing campaign that raises them from 25% to 37%?
    The funny thing is that people who think Corbyn is fundamentally crap should be more concerned about the potential for a 2017 repeat.

    If your view is that Labour's result in 2017 was caused by Corbyn being an uncharacteristically great performer for a few weeks, and by people loving Labour's policies...then yeah, there's reason to think that was a one-time deal which won't repeat this time.

    If, on the other hand, you think Corbyn did not run a particularly great campaign last time, that people weren't especially enamoured by Labour's policies, that Labour's result was just caused by people defaulting to Labour as the lesser evil (because they just wanted to stop a Tory landslide / wanted to stop Brexit / didn't take much persuading to believe the Tories were evil and so overreacted to things like the 'dementia tax')....then why wouldn't those same dynamics assert themselves this time? There's still going to be a hell of a lot of people (even if they're currently telling pollsters that they'll vote LibDem or Green) who want to stop a Tory landslide / stop Brexit / are predisposed to believing bad interpretations of Tory policy.
    Correct. If there is an early election the Tories will start off with a big polling lead. Everyone will expect them to win. Then people will start to wonder about whether they really want to give Johnson unfettered power. Is his deal really as good as he says? Can he be trusted? Why does he lie so easily, even about trivial issues? The Lib Dems will say that they could never support Corbyn as PM. And nobody will believe Labour could win a majority, so the risk of Corbyn actually becoming PM is minimal. It will be quite safe for remainers to vote Labour in seats where the Lib Dems have no chance, because it is clear that this will not result in a Corbyn premiership.

    Just like 2017. And the result will be similar.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    Why do elections have to be on Thursday’s .

    As for the Lib Dem plan Bozo won’t accept it because the spoilt brat has to have everything his own way .

    Wasn't it to do with avoiding employers coercing their employees?
    I can’t find a definitive answer. Historically elections happened over a period of up to four weeks and, of course, if you had to be an employee you probably couldn’t afford to vote. GEs have only consistently been held on Thursdays since 1935.


  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,055

    Fishing said:

    Why bother to amend the FTPA? Why not just scrap it?

    At least this way I get to vote. I'm scheduled to fly somewhere sunny on 12/12.

    You can get a postal vote. Indeed I expect the highest ever postal vote election
    That would be the non-lazy solution...

  • valleyboyvalleyboy Posts: 606
    Foxy said:

    Danny565 said:


    If, on the other hand, you think Corbyn did not run a particularly great campaign last time, that people weren't especially enamoured by Labour's policies, that Labour's result was just caused by people defaulting to Labour as the lesser evil (because they just wanted to stop a Tory landslide / wanted to stop Brexit / didn't take much persuading to believe the Tories were evil and so overreacted to things like the 'dementia tax')....then why wouldn't those same dynamics assert themselves this time?

    Because Boris Johnson is much better at politics and cares much less about policy than Theresa May.

    Theresa May looked at the problems she thought needed solving and made proposals to fix them like the dementia tax, which was easy to demagogue. Boris Johnson will work out what the voters want ro hear, and pretend he's going to give them that.
    I don't think that we will have a Dec election, but if we do, I expect BoZo's dislike of scrutiny and absence of detail to be major issues.
    I dont expect a Dec election either. When it does come expect Johnson to be ducking and diving to avoid any sort of scrutiny of his policies
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Cyclefree said:

    So in summary all the parties want an election but they want to be the ones that brought it about, basically. The net result is, no one know when the sodding election will be if it even ever happens.

    Meanwhile, in 5 days time, we crash out of the EU without any sort of WA.

    It’s kinda important but is in danger of being forgotten. Or are we just assuming that the French will agree to an extension.....?
    Yes. And we'll be right.

    But if, by any chance, we are not, the hollowness of the weeping of those who stated they would prevent no deal at any cost will be on full display. So many people have cried great big crocodile tears about no deal while taking circuitious routes to avoid it, because the most direct route did not give them what they wanted and they lacked the balls to take the second most direct route.

    I don't want to see it happen, but the downright lies of those who claimed to hate no deal so much while keeping it alive so they could try to get the other thing they wanted, would be something to see.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,616
    valleyboy said:

    Foxy said:

    Danny565 said:


    If, on the other hand, you think Corbyn did not run a particularly great campaign last time, that people weren't especially enamoured by Labour's policies, that Labour's result was just caused by people defaulting to Labour as the lesser evil (because they just wanted to stop a Tory landslide / wanted to stop Brexit / didn't take much persuading to believe the Tories were evil and so overreacted to things like the 'dementia tax')....then why wouldn't those same dynamics assert themselves this time?

    Because Boris Johnson is much better at politics and cares much less about policy than Theresa May.

    Theresa May looked at the problems she thought needed solving and made proposals to fix them like the dementia tax, which was easy to demagogue. Boris Johnson will work out what the voters want ro hear, and pretend he's going to give them that.
    I don't think that we will have a Dec election, but if we do, I expect BoZo's dislike of scrutiny and absence of detail to be major issues.
    I dont expect a Dec election either. When it does come expect Johnson to be ducking and diving to avoid any sort of scrutiny of his policies
    Yeah, and Labour will be different because they will be welcoming forensic interrogation of their own financial provisions!
  • MauveMauve Posts: 129
    Because I have nothing better to do this evening, I've looked at the tables for the last few YouGovs to see if there's anything interesting (it doesn't look like there is to me). I doubt a few percent either way in the weighting will make a difference after a GE campaign, particularly given YouGov can keep track of their samples, but in case anyone is interested (hopefully the formatting turns out ok):
    Date Weighted Remain / Leave (Unweighted Remain / Leave) Unweighted Remain %
    17-18-Oct 619 / 661 (710/680) 48.9%
    20-21-Oct 650 / 696 (736/696) 48.6%
    23-24-Oct 632 / 676 (721/669) 48.1%
    Women seem to be over-represented in all three surveys (>55%), which might explain some of the unweighted difference. Unless Corbyn and Swinson can make Farage relevant again I can't see a result other than a small Johnson majority based on the current polling.

    As an aside, it's amazing what people will pay pollsters to check. What does PB think cats say? Is it miaow or meow?
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,055

    RobD said:

    Elections not on a Thursday? What madness is this.

    There is something comforting about the Thursday election day tradition.

    I am not saying that it can't be changed. But it would be better to move it to a Sunday than a different weekday if change is really necessary (which I don't believe it is)
    Sunday would be problematic. I think I've voted in churches in two different constituencies in general elections, out of five general elections in four different constituencies.
    May result in fewer Christian fundamentalists voting, though...
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    edited October 2019
    Cyclefree said:

    So in summary all the parties want an election but they want to be the ones that brought it about, basically. The net result is, no one know when the sodding election will be if it even ever happens.

    Meanwhile, in 5 days time, we crash out of the EU without any sort of WA.

    It’s kinda important but is in danger of being forgotten. Or are we just assuming that the French will agree to an extension.....?
    Which means that on 22:55 on the 31st, Boris sends the "Revoke" email

    But he does not sign it ;)
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    edited October 2019

    Fishing said:

    Why bother to amend the FTPA? Why not just scrap it?

    At least this way I get to vote. I'm scheduled to fly somewhere sunny on 12/12.

    I believe because it replaced a Royal Prerogative. Under our law once a prerogative has been removed it cannot be reinstated. That means that scrapping the FTPA would require a completely new set of laws regarding the ability to call elections.
    Theoretically Parliament could explicitly reinstate the Royal Prerogative but that has never been done before. It could read something along the lines of “From commencement of this Act, the Royal Prerogative with regard to dissolution and elections to Parliament shall be restored and shall subsist in the same manner as the day before the commencement of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011”. But the trend of history has been to reduce, not increase, the scope of the Royal Prerogative and I can’t see such a provision passing.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,878
    kle4 said:

    nico67 said:

    Why do elections have to be on Thursday’s .

    As for the Lib Dem plan Bozo won’t accept it because the spoilt brat has to have everything his own way .

    Obviously there's nothing sacred about Thursdays, but accepting any weekday as being arbitrary their explanation for wanting it on that day doesn't make much sense to me either. Lacking a good reason to move it, why change the convention of it being Thursday? That's my general approach with conventions - why shift something that developed over time without a reason?

    Presumably the planned amendment to the FTPA will set a new 'fixed' date to aim for, so we aren't in theory committed to December elections on a fixed cycle though.
    If I understand it, the FTPA (assuming it isn't repealled) sets the date to the first Thursday in May in the fourth/fifth year after the last election.

    If we did have a December 2019 election, the next one would be May 2024 assuming FTPA stays, and Parliament runs its course.
  • Danny565 said:

    Hmm, looks like I might have to eat my words about there not being an election this year.

    As such, I may as well make another prediction which will blow up in my face: both the Tories and Labour are going to do better than polls currently predict. I'll say something like 42% for the Tories, 37% for Labour.

    It's going to be Clinton/Trump all over again: people thought those two being so unpopular meant third parties would surge, but, in the end, so many people thought one of the two options was so grotesque that they ended up going with someone they thought was only mildly grotesque.

    I don't agree with your percentages but I do agree with your logic.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Fishing said:

    RobD said:

    Elections not on a Thursday? What madness is this.

    There is something comforting about the Thursday election day tradition.

    I am not saying that it can't be changed. But it would be better to move it to a Sunday than a different weekday if change is really necessary (which I don't believe it is)
    Sunday would be problematic. I think I've voted in churches in two different constituencies in general elections, out of five general elections in four different constituencies.
    May result in fewer Christian fundamentalists voting, though...
    The explanation on Wikipedia for Thursday is that it's as far away from Sunday sermons as possible and yet before Friday payday turns the electorate into uninhibited drunkards.

    Sunday church attendance is still falling though. There were possibly more WWI veterans in 1974 than there are now regular churchgoers.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited October 2019
    Surely Jezza and PLP will now move and agree to a 12th December election?

    Jezza can't afford for it to look like Jo and Nicola are dragging him kicking and screaming to the polls.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,616
    Enjoy the extra hour in bad - all those not watching the rugby. No clock change in Japan so the game starts at 8.00 am.
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613
    valleyboy said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    What's in it for them?

    Labour getting marmalised for the LibDems - possibly replacing the DUP as the power brokers in a hung Parliament; SNP getting a mandate for another referendum.

    That Labour haven't spotted this route is weird - we've all been talking about it on here for weeks.

    Nobody's spotted Tory Swinson is a Tory enabler?

    I think they have.
    Sheer madness by the Libs. A Tory win and brexit on Johnson's terms almost inevitable. Swinson can kiss her revocation or referendum goodbye. She may as well kiss Johnsons arse She must be a Tory in disguise.
    Quick calculation not sure, unless a load of Labour vote for it, that it will get through.
    Bolocks to Brexit is a campaign slogan, not a raison d'etre. Jo Swinson wants to maximise the number of LibDem MPs. She judges that that is best acheived by having an election before Brexit is settled, so that they can gain seats from Labour on a remain platform.

    If it ultimately ends up with a Tory govt and Brexit, but a substantial increase in LibDem MPs, then it is a net success from their perspective. The aim is more MPs. Everything else is a means to an end. I don't mean this as a criticism either.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239

    RobD said:

    Elections not on a Thursday? What madness is this.

    There is something comforting about the Thursday election day tradition.

    I am not saying that it can't be changed. But it would be better to move it to a Sunday than a different weekday if change is really necessary (which I don't believe it is)
    Sunday would be problematic. I think I've voted in churches in two different constituencies in general elections, out of five general elections in four different constituencies.
    If we have a Sunday election, you bet I’m choosing “Come, labour on” as one of the hymns for the service.

    Not that I’m a Labour supporter, but as an organist I have a troublemaking reputation to keep up.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,488

    RobD said:

    Elections not on a Thursday? What madness is this.

    There is something comforting about the Thursday election day tradition.

    I am not saying that it can't be changed. But it would be better to move it to a Sunday than a different weekday if change is really necessary (which I don't believe it is)
    Sunday would be problematic. I think I've voted in churches in two different constituencies in general elections, out of five general elections in four different constituencies.
    If we have a Sunday election, you bet I’m choosing “Come, labour on” as one of the hymns for the service.

    Not that I’m a Labour supporter, but as an organist I have a troublemaking reputation to keep up.
    Hope everyone doesn't ask you to pipe down.
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613

    RobD said:

    Elections not on a Thursday? What madness is this.

    There is something comforting about the Thursday election day tradition.

    I am not saying that it can't be changed. But it would be better to move it to a Sunday than a different weekday if change is really necessary (which I don't believe it is)
    Sunday would be problematic. I think I've voted in churches in two different constituencies in general elections, out of five general elections in four different constituencies.
    Also wouldn't you have lots of people who work the election on overtime/time and a half etc ? Could end up being expensive for local authorities.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Labour have run out of excuses.

    If they hate the deal so much then explain why to the pubic . Their MPs have a choice , if they’re so pro EU then put up or shut up .

    The only way to a second vote is through an election. There is zip chance to a second vote with the Tories in charge.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    PaulM said:

    RobD said:

    Elections not on a Thursday? What madness is this.

    There is something comforting about the Thursday election day tradition.

    I am not saying that it can't be changed. But it would be better to move it to a Sunday than a different weekday if change is really necessary (which I don't believe it is)
    Sunday would be problematic. I think I've voted in churches in two different constituencies in general elections, out of five general elections in four different constituencies.
    Also wouldn't you have lots of people who work the election on overtime/time and a half etc ? Could end up being expensive for local authorities.
    It's not like you are paid your regular hourly rate for electoral duty, it's just a set amount (I have no idea if it varies from area to area, I assume so). I don't think it'd be guaranteed it would cost more as they could offer the same amount, but they might need to offer more to get more volunteers to do the work, so it could be.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I bet Cummings didn't think of this development. Although he's probably war-gaming it right now inside Downing Street.
  • Enjoy the extra hour in bad - all those not watching the rugby. No clock change in Japan so the game starts at 8.00 am.

    You sure? ITV coverage starts at 8am but the game at 9am. (Seems odd the two semi finals start at different times but Japan doesn't have clock change.)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited October 2019
    It does seem hard to see how we avoid a December election now. The EU are, for now, calling our bluff, it's pretty obvious they would prefer an indication from us in advance, and anti no dealers would be being very irresponsible to go into the final week without a plan other than hoping the EU say yes, no matter how likely it is they will. An agreement to GE on Monday gives the signal to the EU to say yes.

    The only alternatives, to settle things before a GE as I would prefer, just don't have the numbers (Eg, pass a timetable to approve the WAIB, and pass it or amend it as needed). Labour don't need to worry about Johnson passing it if a GE is agreed either - no reason for Labour rebels to back it when they can claim they hope Labour win an election and negotiate a customs union Brexit or something.
  • Evening all, back from Barcelona tonight. Did I miss much Brexit-wise? :lol:
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106

    Enjoy the extra hour in bad - all those not watching the rugby. No clock change in Japan so the game starts at 8.00 am.

    Thanks for the heads up, i'd have been waking as the 2nd half started.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    The Lib Dem offer is more designed for the EU than for Johnson .

    In an effort to get the longer extension . There’s no guarantees that the 3 month extension is going to be offered unless the EU think an election is going to happen .

    Whether Remainers like it or not there are few avenues left to stop Brexit . The only one is an election .

    As for Macrons position , he isn’t going to veto but try to get the other EU members to agree on a shorter extension.

    Although he’s isolated at the moment I expect more countries will take a tougher stance after Monday if there’s no sign of an election .

  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    Have the 9 (?) constituencies with ex-Tories who apparently aren't getting the whip back selected new candidates?

    I assume there must be a CHQ standby list.

    Bebb, Grieve, Greening, Hammond, Harrington, Milton, Sandbach, Stewart, Nokes?
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052

    RobD said:

    Elections not on a Thursday? What madness is this.

    There is something comforting about the Thursday election day tradition.

    I am not saying that it can't be changed. But it would be better to move it to a Sunday than a different weekday if change is really necessary (which I don't believe it is)
    Sunday would be problematic. I think I've voted in churches in two different constituencies in general elections, out of five general elections in four different constituencies.
    Churches should not be used as polling stations.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    SunnyJim said:

    Have the 9 (?) constituencies with ex-Tories who apparently aren't getting the whip back selected new candidates?

    I assume there must be a CHQ standby list.

    Bebb, Grieve, Greening, Hammond, Harrington, Milton, Sandbach, Stewart, Nokes?

    Not sure. I wonder how many of those will stand as independents.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Dadge said:

    RobD said:

    Elections not on a Thursday? What madness is this.

    There is something comforting about the Thursday election day tradition.

    I am not saying that it can't be changed. But it would be better to move it to a Sunday than a different weekday if change is really necessary (which I don't believe it is)
    Sunday would be problematic. I think I've voted in churches in two different constituencies in general elections, out of five general elections in four different constituencies.
    Churches should not be used as polling stations.
    In one place where I voted in a church I think the choice would have been: church, close the Primary school for the day, or not have a polling station within walking distance.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    malcolmg said:

    justin124 said:

    valleyboy said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    What's in it for them?

    Labour getting marmalised for the LibDems - possibly replacing the DUP as the power brokers in a hung Parliament; SNP getting a mandate for another referendum.

    That Labour haven't spotted this route is weird - we've all been talking about it on here for weeks.

    Nobody's spotted Tory Swinson is a Tory enabler?

    I think they have.
    Sheer madness by the Libs. A Tory win and brexit on Johnson's terms almost inevitable. Swinson can kiss her revocation or referendum goodbye. She may as well kiss Johnsons arse She must be a Tory in disguise.
    Quick calculation not sure, unless a load of Labour vote for it, that it will get through.
    It would probably be pretty helpful to Labour - adding credence to the Tory Little Helper theme. Not good for SNP in Scotland either.
    Why bad for SNP. LD's will go nowhere in Scotland, they are crap.
    Former Labour voters who see the SNP as Tory helpers will not be impressed.
  • AndyJS said:

    SunnyJim said:

    Have the 9 (?) constituencies with ex-Tories who apparently aren't getting the whip back selected new candidates?

    I assume there must be a CHQ standby list.

    Bebb, Grieve, Greening, Hammond, Harrington, Milton, Sandbach, Stewart, Nokes?

    Not sure. I wonder how many of those will stand as independents.
    Bebb, Greening, Harrington and Stewart have all said they are standing down.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875

    Danny565 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Danny565 said:

    Hmm, looks like I might have to eat my words about there not being an election this year.

    It's going to be Clinton/Trump all over again: people thought those two being so unpopular meant third parties would surge, but, in the end, so many people thought one of the two options was so grotesque that they ended up going with someone they thought was only mildly grotesque.

    Labour to have another amazing campaign that raises them from 25% to 37%?
    The funny thing is that people who think Corbyn is fundamentally crap should be more concerned about the potential for a 2017 repeat.

    If your view is that Labour's result in 2017 was caused by Corbyn being an uncharacteristically great performer for a few weeks, and by people loving Labour's policies...then yeah, there's reason to think that was a one-time deal which won't repeat this time.

    If, on the other hand, you think Corbyn did not run a particularly great campaign last time, that people weren't especially enamoured by Labour's policies, that Labour's result was just caused by people defaulting to Labour as the lesser evil (because they just wanted to stop a Tory landslide / wanted to stop Brexit / didn't take much persuading to believe the Tories were evil and so overreacted to things like the 'dementia tax')....then why wouldn't those same dynamics assert themselves this time? There's still going to be a hell of a lot of people (even if they're currently telling pollsters that they'll vote LibDem or Green) who want to stop a Tory landslide / stop Brexit / are predisposed to believing bad interpretations of Tory policy.
    Correct. If there is an early election the Tories will start off with a big polling lead. Everyone will expect them to win. Then people will start to wonder about whether they really want to give Johnson unfettered power. Is his deal really as good as he says? Can he be trusted? Why does he lie so easily, even about trivial issues? The Lib Dems will say that they could never support Corbyn as PM. And nobody will believe Labour could win a majority, so the risk of Corbyn actually becoming PM is minimal. It will be quite safe for remainers to vote Labour in seats where the Lib Dems have no chance, because it is clear that this will not result in a Corbyn premiership.

    Just like 2017. And the result will be similar.
    The public would have to be absolutely fucking insane to do that - the botch job remainers made by supporting Corbyn "risk-free" in 2017 led directly to the hideous paralysis of the last 2 and a half years, and to the rise of Boris himself.

    They need to give the Conservatives a clear majority, or face the same stasis for another whole Parliamentary term!
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Dadge said:


    Churches should not be used as polling stations.

    Yup, if somebody is turning wine into blood in those locations how can you trust them not to turn Lab votes into Con?
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106



    Bebb, Greening, Harrington and Stewart have all said they are standing down.

    Ah right, i'd missed that.

    Working on the presumption that there is a tiny Tory majority to try and get the deal through then there is little sense in giving the whip back to MPs who have made it clear they will fight the bill.

    Every vote will count before and after any ratification and carrying 5+ MPs who can't be relied upon doesn't make any sense.

    Of course, we may end up with JC in No.10.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited October 2019
    SunnyJim said:



    Bebb, Greening, Harrington and Stewart have all said they are standing down.

    Ah right, i'd missed that.

    Working on the presumption that there is a tiny Tory majority to try and get the deal through then there is little sense in giving the whip back to MPs who have made it clear they will fight the bill.

    Every vote will count before and after any ratification and carrying 5+ MPs who can't be relied upon doesn't make any sense.

    Of course, we may end up with JC in No.10.
    Most of them seem to be supporting the deal.

    OTOH think about the other end. Imagine the Tories get a majority, their new intake is full of No Deal enthusiasts, and there's no longer a parliamentary majority to block No Deal. Why would No Deal enthusiasts support the deal and only get half of what they want, when they can vote it down and get all of what they want?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,236

    I think, in a GE, despite it offering the 'best' chance for Remain that they're screwed.

    If everyone who wanted to Remain voted LD, then LD would probably landslide it on 45% of the vote.

    The problem is tribalism. Coming from Bootle I see it daily, and see it first hand.
    "Do you want to stop Brexit?" "Yes! I hate it. I want to Remain. Anything to Remain!".
    "So, you'll be voting Lib Dem then?" "What? Eh?! No... I'm voting Labour! LABOUR."
    "But they don't support Remain. Best you get is a 2nd Ref, and even then they haven't committed to campaigning for Remain, they've left the door open to leaving with 'their' deal."

    At this point, you should usually see a 'head explodes' scene as they realise the incompatibility of this position with their hatred of Brexit. But you don't. Instead its a simple and calm, "That's not true; and even if it were, I'm still voting Labour."

    Labour almost certainly won't get less than 25% in a GE. And massive vote efficiency probably ensures at least 160 seats, if not more.

    It means Remain are doomed, because a good chunk of that 25%, if they switched to LD would deliver a LD minority government. But the tribals can't do it. They can't not vote Labour. They have to vote Labour. It's the law.

    That's very plausible.

    But let me offer a completely different, and slightly less plausible, but still possible scenario.

    Labour Remainers in much of London and the market towns of South East England care passionately about Brexit. They break decisively for the LibDems.

    Labour Leavers in Solihull don't care that much about Brexit. They reluctantly stick with Corbyn.

    Likely? Not likely, but possible.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    The Hills Have Ayes.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    kle4 said:

    It does seem hard to see how we avoid a December election now. The EU are, for now, calling our bluff, it's pretty obvious they would prefer an indication from us in advance, and anti no dealers would be being very irresponsible to go into the final week without a plan other than hoping the EU say yes, no matter how likely it is they will. An agreement to GE on Monday gives the signal to the EU to say yes.

    The only alternatives, to settle things before a GE as I would prefer, just don't have the numbers (Eg, pass a timetable to approve the WAIB, and pass it or amend it as needed). Labour don't need to worry about Johnson passing it if a GE is agreed either - no reason for Labour rebels to back it when they can claim they hope Labour win an election and negotiate a customs union Brexit or something.

    The Tories may not agree with the LD/SNP idea for a new bill. That means we're back to the 434 MPs needed for the FTPA, and that may not happen. So that would mean no December election.
  • Dura_Ace said:

    The Hills Have Ayes.
    Three Men fae Carntyne, and a bottle of wine, went to join the Parish...
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    AndyJS said:



    The Tories may not agree with the LD/SNP idea for a new bill. That means we're back to the 434 MPs needed for the FTPA, and that may not happen. So that would mean no December election.

    Providing there is an agreement that any amendments are voted down then I can't see why Boris wouldn't go for it.

    The popular one of giving 16yo the vote would apparently be very challenging for local authorities to implement in the timescale available. I don't know how true this is.

  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    Dura_Ace said:


    The Hills Have Ayes.

    Pains me to admit it but the twitter comments had me in tears.


  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    What if Macron chooses the path of maximum trolling and extends until November 5th.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    SunnyJim said:

    AndyJS said:



    The Tories may not agree with the LD/SNP idea for a new bill. That means we're back to the 434 MPs needed for the FTPA, and that may not happen. So that would mean no December election.

    Providing there is an agreement that any amendments are voted down then I can't see why Boris wouldn't go for it.

    The popular one of giving 16yo the vote would apparently be very challenging for local authorities to implement in the timescale available. I don't know how true this is.

    It would be impossible, not just challenging. You can't just create a new electoral register in a few weeks. I'm pretty sure there's no majority in the HoC for votes at 16 however.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    edited October 2019
    Local authorities are already in semi advanced planning for 5th or 12th December. If they have to chuck a lot of this out just to move this to a Monday in between they will be spewing.

    It is also, incidentally, a very bad look for our democracy to have politicians arguing in effect that the days of the week/specific dates that elections are held can have meaningful impacts on the outcome.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,236
    alex. said:

    Local authorities are already in semi advanced planning for 5th or 12th December. If they have to chuck a lot of this out just to move this to a Monday in between they will be spewing.

    It is also, incidentally, a very bad look for our democracy to have politicians arguing in effect that the days of the week/specific dates that elections are held can have meaningful impacts on the outcome.

    I'm going to be in London on 5 December, so would prefer that :smile:
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    RobD said:

    Fishing said:

    Why bother to amend the FTPA? Why not just scrap it?

    At least this way I get to vote. I'm scheduled to fly somewhere sunny on 12/12.

    I believe because it replaced a Royal Prerogative. Under our law once a prerogative has been removed it cannot be reinstated. That means that scrapping the FTPA would require a completely new set of laws regarding the ability to call elections.
    It also repealed the septennial act. If FTPA was repealed there'd be no limit on the length of a parliament.
    That would probably suit this Parliament perfectly.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    alex. said:

    Local authorities are already in semi advanced planning for 5th or 12th December. If they have to chuck a lot of this out just to move this to a Monday in between they will be spewing.

    It is also, incidentally, a very bad look for our democracy to have politicians arguing in effect that the days of the week/specific dates that elections are held can have meaningful impacts on the outcome.

    It's their job to do whatever they're told to do, they shouldn't really be expressing an opinion on it. Sorry to be harsh.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,504
    crandles said:

    Enjoy the extra hour in bad - all those not watching the rugby. No clock change in Japan so the game starts at 8.00 am.

    You sure? ITV coverage starts at 8am but the game at 9am. (Seems odd the two semi finals start at different times but Japan doesn't have clock change.)
    Complete rubbish/fake news. The game kicks off at 0900 GMT, it’s an hour earlier in Japan but is the same time here as yesterday’s final. I have no idea why he posted that, it’s nonsense.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    edited October 2019
    AndyJS said:

    alex. said:

    Local authorities are already in semi advanced planning for 5th or 12th December. If they have to chuck a lot of this out just to move this to a Monday in between they will be spewing.

    It is also, incidentally, a very bad look for our democracy to have politicians arguing in effect that the days of the week/specific dates that elections are held can have meaningful impacts on the outcome.

    It's their job to do whatever they're told to do, they shouldn't really be expressing an opinion on it. Sorry to be harsh.
    And yet just a few posts earlier you were pointing out that they can’t do the impossible... It might be worthwhile them expressing an opinion on that, just in case...

    Of course they will do what they are told to do (within the bounds of possibility). They have every right to expect that politicians taking decisions about things they have to deliver, should have thought for the practical difficulties they face (especially if done for reasons essentially of political game playing). You can bet if things are made difficult unnecessarily, and the election becomes a shambles, the politicians won’t be the ones taking the blame for it.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    A rapid change of mind from the SNP leadership, if the latest reports are true.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    One might also point out that those who know the most about practicalities of elections are those who are responsible for delivering them. Unless you are one of the “had enough of experts brigade” it would be downright stupid not to seek their opinion about how best to allow them to happen smoothly.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "'Not enough time' to add 16-year-olds to electoral roll if snap election called, say officials"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/26/not-enough-time-add-16-year-olds-electoral-roll-snap-election/
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    AndyJS said:

    "'Not enough time' to add 16-year-olds to electoral roll if snap election called, say officials"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/26/not-enough-time-add-16-year-olds-electoral-roll-snap-election/

    Is that Boris posing with a couple of new potential voters, if Labour et al. have their way? :)
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,055
    edited October 2019
    BRITISH TERRITORY INVADED

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/10/26/british-island-invaded-name-french-king-group-put-patagonian/

    Boris finally has a chance to show us all whether he is a second Churchill. If we can find out who the enemy is, anyway...
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,055
    Also, Gibraltar may want a Peer in the Lords to replace its MEP:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/26/gibraltar-wants-peer-house-lords-replace-meps-brexit/

    Maybe we should give them a non-voting Member in the Commons instead, as the Americans give Guam, Puerto Rico and a couple of Indian tribes non-voting delegates in the House of Representatives. They can initiate legislation and sit on committees, but cannot take part in votes. Also Bermuda and other colonies.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    .
    Fishing said:

    Also, Gibraltar may want a Peer in the Lords to replace its MEP:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/26/gibraltar-wants-peer-house-lords-replace-meps-brexit/

    Maybe we should give them a non-voting Member in the Commons instead, as the Americans give Guam, Puerto Rico and a couple of Indian tribes non-voting delegates in the House of Representatives. They can initiate legislation and sit on committees, but cannot take part in votes. Also Bermuda and other colonies.

    I believe they should be given an MP with full voting rights, and similar representation in the Lords, perhaps an appointee of the governor of each territory?
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,055
    RobD said:

    .

    Fishing said:

    Also, Gibraltar may want a Peer in the Lords to replace its MEP:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/26/gibraltar-wants-peer-house-lords-replace-meps-brexit/

    Maybe we should give them a non-voting Member in the Commons instead, as the Americans give Guam, Puerto Rico and a couple of Indian tribes non-voting delegates in the House of Representatives. They can initiate legislation and sit on committees, but cannot take part in votes. Also Bermuda and other colonies.

    I believe they should be given an MP with full voting rights, and similar representation in the Lords, perhaps an appointee of the governor of each territory?
    There are already far too many MPs who vote on English matters when they don't represent English constituencies. I don't want us to add yet more.

    Of course, if we finally established an English Parliament, and just had Westminster voting on Union matters, that problem would be solved, but that doesn't seem in prospect at the moment.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Is the Saj burying bad news on the economy? Probably.

    Sajid Javid has called off the 6 November Budget because of plans for a general election - meaning he is not obliged to release new predictions from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) on growth, state borrowing and the tax take.

    The OBR had already started work on a fiscal and economic outlook to be published alongside the Chancellor's spending plans. Economists expected this to show a major deterioration in the public finances which could harm the Tories' reputation for managing Britain's books.

    MPs and former top Treasury official Lord Nick Macpherson questioned if the Budget was called off to avoid negative headlines from the bleak update.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/10/25/publish-forecast-anyway-no-budget-mps-pressure-obr-reveal-economic/
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,055
    RobD said:

    .

    Fishing said:

    Also, Gibraltar may want a Peer in the Lords to replace its MEP:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/26/gibraltar-wants-peer-house-lords-replace-meps-brexit/

    Maybe we should give them a non-voting Member in the Commons instead, as the Americans give Guam, Puerto Rico and a couple of Indian tribes non-voting delegates in the House of Representatives. They can initiate legislation and sit on committees, but cannot take part in votes. Also Bermuda and other colonies.

    I believe they should be given an MP with full voting rights, and similar representation in the Lords, perhaps an appointee of the governor of each territory?
    Also, now I think about it, another issue with giving them an MP each is that they have wildly differing populations - Bermuda has 71,000, which is roughly the size of a UK Parliamentary constituency, and Gibraltar has 32,000, which is similar to Western Isles, but the Falklands only have 3,400 and Pitcairn only 81.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Fishing said:

    RobD said:

    .

    Fishing said:

    Also, Gibraltar may want a Peer in the Lords to replace its MEP:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/26/gibraltar-wants-peer-house-lords-replace-meps-brexit/

    Maybe we should give them a non-voting Member in the Commons instead, as the Americans give Guam, Puerto Rico and a couple of Indian tribes non-voting delegates in the House of Representatives. They can initiate legislation and sit on committees, but cannot take part in votes. Also Bermuda and other colonies.

    I believe they should be given an MP with full voting rights, and similar representation in the Lords, perhaps an appointee of the governor of each territory?
    Also, now I think about it, another issue with giving them an MP each is that they have wildly differing populations - Bermuda has 71,000, which is roughly the size of a UK Parliamentary constituency, and Gibraltar has 32,000, which is similar to Western Isles, but the Falklands only have 3,400 and Pitcairn only 81.
    That's a good point, for the top few it makes sense, but not the very sparsely populated ones. Perhaps that's why nothing has been done in the past?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627
    I’m still not understanding why Monday 9th December would be a good day to have an election, but Thursday 12th (or Thursday 5th) would be a bad day?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    rcs1000 said:

    I think, in a GE, despite it offering the 'best' chance for Remain that they're screwed.

    If everyone who wanted to Remain voted LD, then LD would probably landslide it on 45% of the vote.

    The problem is tribalism. Coming from Bootle I see it daily, and see it first hand.
    "Do you want to stop Brexit?" "Yes! I hate it. I want to Remain. Anything to Remain!".
    "So, you'll be voting Lib Dem then?" "What? Eh?! No... I'm voting Labour! LABOUR."
    "But they don't support Remain. Best you get is a 2nd Ref, and even then they haven't committed to campaigning for Remain, they've left the door open to leaving with 'their' deal."

    At this point, you should usually see a 'head explodes' scene as they realise the incompatibility of this position with their hatred of Brexit. But you don't. Instead its a simple and calm, "That's not true; and even if it were, I'm still voting Labour."

    Labour almost certainly won't get less than 25% in a GE. And massive vote efficiency probably ensures at least 160 seats, if not more.

    It means Remain are doomed, because a good chunk of that 25%, if they switched to LD would deliver a LD minority government. But the tribals can't do it. They can't not vote Labour. They have to vote Labour. It's the law.

    That's very plausible.

    But let me offer a completely different, and slightly less plausible, but still possible scenario.

    Labour Remainers in much of London and the market towns of South East England care passionately about Brexit. They break decisively for the LibDems.

    Labour Leavers in Solihull don't care that much about Brexit. They reluctantly stick with Corbyn.

    Likely? Not likely, but possible.
    This is why we desperately need regional polling. I think it's possible that the Lib Dems clean up in London in a similar way to what the SNP did in Scotland (perhaps more like 2017 rather than 2015). But I think in those circumstances away from the Liverpools and Sheffield, the Tories would absolutely rout Labour.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited October 2019
    Fishing said:

    RobD said:

    .

    Fishing said:

    Also, Gibraltar may want a Peer in the Lords to replace its MEP:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/26/gibraltar-wants-peer-house-lords-replace-meps-brexit/

    Maybe we should give them a non-voting Member in the Commons instead, as the Americans give Guam, Puerto Rico and a couple of Indian tribes non-voting delegates in the House of Representatives. They can initiate legislation and sit on committees, but cannot take part in votes. Also Bermuda and other colonies.

    I believe they should be given an MP with full voting rights, and similar representation in the Lords, perhaps an appointee of the governor of each territory?
    Also, now I think about it, another issue with giving them an MP each is that they have wildly differing populations - Bermuda has 71,000, which is roughly the size of a UK Parliamentary constituency, and Gibraltar has 32,000, which is similar to Western Isles, but the Falklands only have 3,400 and Pitcairn only 81.
    One for Bermuda and one for all the other overseas territories. Somebody would have a weirdly large constituency but if they got around it once a year or two and did the rest remotely it would be way better than the status quo.

    Or follow the Oshima/Chichijima model and make the Falklands part of London.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138

    That now 9% gap between LibDems and Labour is interesting. Revoke not a winner?

    Wrong again, Mr Mark! It may have escaped your notice that over the last few days several members of the Labour Leadership have been trying to persuade people that Labour is, after all, in favour of remaining. At the same time, however, the rest of the Labour Leadership is still in favour of leaving, and is aiding and abetting Bovingdon Boris`s wrecking of the economy. This kind of situation just cannot go on, can it?
This discussion has been closed.