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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LDs propose plan that would give Johnson a December electi

SystemSystem Posts: 12,171
edited October 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LDs propose plan that would give Johnson a December election

? NEW: A new plan tonight to offer Boris Johnson the pre-Christmas election he craves. ?

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • 1st?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    What's in it for them?
  • Well of the pace...like new zealand in the rugby.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614
    Ishmael_Z said:

    What's in it for them?

    Labour getting marmalised for the LibDems - possibly replacing the DUP as the power brokers in a hung Parliament; SNP getting a mandate for another referendum.

    That Labour haven't spotted this route is weird - we've all been talking about it on here for weeks.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,213
    Ishmael_Z said:

    What's in it for them?

    More MPs
  • It unnecessary silly buggery. 3 days will make no real difference. But its better than labours nonsense.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Ishmael_Z said:

    What's in it for them?

    Watching Labour get fecked?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Scott_P said:
    Interesting idea. If such a bill comes about there will be attempts to amend it to allow EU nationals and 16/17 year olds to vote. And if the expelled Tories support such amendments then they will pass.
    I assume you have not read the article that states amendments would be voted down by the combined force of Conservatives, SNP and Lib Dems and I understand the DUP supports the election

    It is game over for labour playing games
    Your're commentis unintentionally telling in that is only game over for 'Labour' playing games.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    Ishmael_Z said:

    What's in it for them?

    Labour getting marmalised for the LibDems - possibly replacing the DUP as the power brokers in a hung Parliament; SNP getting a mandate for another referendum.

    That Labour haven't spotted this route is weird - we've all been talking about it on here for weeks.

    Nobody's spotted Tory Swinson is a Tory enabler?

    I think they have.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited October 2019
    I reiterate the point that the sides in this are being way too convoluted in some silly attempt to cover all possible scenarios. For the sake of a few days its hard not to agree with FrancisUrquhart that the plan is silly buggery, but that's all any MPs want to do these days.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Elections not on a Thursday? What madness is this.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    "Dangermouse, I believe we have broken the impasse"
    "No, Penfold, we have merely broken the Impasse that might allow us to break the Impasse that is causing the Impasse"*
    "Ooh, crikey Dangermouse"

    * election, parliament, Brexit
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Interesting idea. If such a bill comes about there will be attempts to amend it to allow EU nationals and 16/17 year olds to vote. And if the expelled Tories support such amendments then they will pass.
    I assume you have not read the article that states amendments would be voted down by the combined force of Conservatives, SNP and Lib Dems and I understand the DUP supports the election

    It is game over for labour playing games
    Your're commentis unintentionally telling in that is only game over for 'Labour' playing games.
    Everything is a disaster for Labour according to Big G. FU etc

    We will see if they are as wrong as they were in 2017 or not at 10pm on GE day.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    What a mess the FTPA has created.

    And the LDs are not offering a sensible way out of the mess they helped to create with that lamentable piece of legislation.

    Enough game playing. Just vote for an election - and fight it when it happens.

    We need to draw a line under this parliament once and for all.
  • Expect a load of Bishop bashing from supporters of Boris Johnson.

    https://twitter.com/thesundaytimes/status/1188198248546291714
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    RobD said:

    Elections not on a Thursday? What madness is this.

    There is something comforting about the Thursday election day tradition.

    I am not saying that it can't be changed. But it would be better to move it to a Sunday than a different weekday if change is really necessary (which I don't believe it is)
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Floater said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    What's in it for them?

    Watching Labour get fecked?
    Oh to have been a fly on Floaters wall at 10pm on GE2017.

    Never learns.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,129
    edited October 2019

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Interesting idea. If such a bill comes about there will be attempts to amend it to allow EU nationals and 16/17 year olds to vote. And if the expelled Tories support such amendments then they will pass.
    I assume you have not read the article that states amendments would be voted down by the combined force of Conservatives, SNP and Lib Dems and I understand the DUP supports the election

    It is game over for labour playing games
    Your're commentis unintentionally telling in that is only game over for 'Labour' playing games.
    Everything is a disaster for Labour according to Big G. FU etc

    We will see if they are as wrong as they were in 2017 or not at 10pm on GE day.
    Errrhhh.....in 2017 i said i thought that the massive may leads were nonsense and called labour doing a lot better in 2017 during the campaign as i posted at the time the polls were showing tories lead with middle aged middle class voters had evaporated.

    I also called they would propose free uni and it would be incredibly popular.

    This time i am very surprised if they dont propose drug reform, most probably things like medical marijuana.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    What a mess the FTPA has created.

    And the LDs are not offering a sensible way out of the mess they helped to create with that lamentable piece of legislation.

    Enough game playing. Just vote for an election - and fight it when it happens.

    We need to draw a line under this parliament once and for all.

    Not sure what I’d be most looking forward to with a Tory majority government, Brexit or the repeal of the FTPA. :D
  • kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Interesting idea. If such a bill comes about there will be attempts to amend it to allow EU nationals and 16/17 year olds to vote. And if the expelled Tories support such amendments then they will pass.
    I assume you have not read the article that states amendments would be voted down by the combined force of Conservatives, SNP and Lib Dems and I understand the DUP supports the election

    It is game over for labour playing games
    Your're commentis unintentionally telling in that is only game over for 'Labour' playing games.
    To be fair I only meant about achieving a December election

    My posts consistently warn against taking anything for granted
  • valleyboyvalleyboy Posts: 606

    Ishmael_Z said:

    What's in it for them?

    Labour getting marmalised for the LibDems - possibly replacing the DUP as the power brokers in a hung Parliament; SNP getting a mandate for another referendum.

    That Labour haven't spotted this route is weird - we've all been talking about it on here for weeks.

    Nobody's spotted Tory Swinson is a Tory enabler?

    I think they have.
    Sheer madness by the Libs. A Tory win and brexit on Johnson's terms almost inevitable. Swinson can kiss her revocation or referendum goodbye. She may as well kiss Johnsons arse She must be a Tory in disguise.
    Quick calculation not sure, unless a load of Labour vote for it, that it will get through.
  • Brexit referendum should never have been called, say majority of voters

    Twice as many people now think it would have been better never to have held a referendum on Brexit than believe it was a good idea, according to the latest Opinium poll for the Observer.

    Asked to consider the difficulties the government has had in reaching an agreement, 57% of UK adults surveyed said that they believed it would have been better not to have had a public vote in June 2016.

    This compares with 29% of voters who believe it was right to hold the referendum on whether the UK should stay in or leave the EU.

    The findings reflect a growing sense of public weariness about arguments over Brexit, which have paralysed British politics and divided the country. People who voted to remain in the EU are overwhelmingly of the view that the referendum should not have taken place, with 87% agreeing and only 7% saying it was a good idea.

    Those who voted to leave, however, still have a majority view – although a decreasing one – that it was right to have put the question to the people; 57% of this group said that they believed it was the correct decision, against 32% who now think the reverse.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/26/opinium-poll-observer-uk-voters-regret-brexit-referendum-conservative-lead-over-labour
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    I recall that back in September there were initially suggestions of holding an election on Monday 14th October , but following objections raised by the Jewish community the date was changed to Tuesday 15th October.
  • kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Interesting idea. If such a bill comes about there will be attempts to amend it to allow EU nationals and 16/17 year olds to vote. And if the expelled Tories support such amendments then they will pass.
    I assume you have not read the article that states amendments would be voted down by the combined force of Conservatives, SNP and Lib Dems and I understand the DUP supports the election

    It is game over for labour playing games
    Your're commentis unintentionally telling in that is only game over for 'Labour' playing games.
    Everything is a disaster for Labour according to Big G. FU etc

    We will see if they are as wrong as they were in 2017 or not at 10pm on GE day.
    It does look like it BJO
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614

    Brexit referendum should never have been called, say majority of voters

    Twice as many people now think it would have been better never to have held a referendum on Brexit than believe it was a good idea, according to the latest Opinium poll for the Observer.

    Asked to consider the difficulties the government has had in reaching an agreement, 57% of UK adults surveyed said that they believed it would have been better not to have had a public vote in June 2016.

    This compares with 29% of voters who believe it was right to hold the referendum on whether the UK should stay in or leave the EU.

    The findings reflect a growing sense of public weariness about arguments over Brexit, which have paralysed British politics and divided the country. People who voted to remain in the EU are overwhelmingly of the view that the referendum should not have taken place, with 87% agreeing and only 7% saying it was a good idea.

    Those who voted to leave, however, still have a majority view – although a decreasing one – that it was right to have put the question to the people; 57% of this group said that they believed it was the correct decision, against 32% who now think the reverse.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/26/opinium-poll-observer-uk-voters-regret-brexit-referendum-conservative-lead-over-labour

    How pointless is that as a poll? We've had the Referendum. Live with it, Remainers. Or invent a fucking time machine.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,129
    edited October 2019

    Expect a load of Bishop bashing from supporters of Boris Johnson.

    twitter.com/thesundaytimes/status/1188198248546291714

    Im no boris fan but its bloody justin welby. That also says tories on 40%.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Interesting idea. If such a bill comes about there will be attempts to amend it to allow EU nationals and 16/17 year olds to vote. And if the expelled Tories support such amendments then they will pass.
    I assume you have not read the article that states amendments would be voted down by the combined force of Conservatives, SNP and Lib Dems and I understand the DUP supports the election

    It is game over for labour playing games
    Your're commentis unintentionally telling in that is only game over for 'Labour' playing games.
    Everything is a disaster for Labour according to Big G. FU etc

    We will see if they are as wrong as they were in 2017 or not at 10pm on GE day.
    Errrhhh.....in 2017 i said i thought that the massive may leads were nonsense and called labour doing a lot better in 2017 during the campaign as i posted at the time the polls were showing tories lead with middle aged middle class voters had evaporated.

    I also called they would propose free uni and it would be incredibly popular.

    This time i am very surprised if they dont propose drug reform, most probably things like medical marijuana.
    Did you your off the hook then.


    Lots of PB Tories were predicting Labour wipeout and Tory landslide.

    Same poster making same type of comments now.

    IMO they should be cautious in order to avoid disappointment
  • Expect a load of Bishop bashing from supporters of Boris Johnson.

    twitter.com/thesundaytimes/status/1188198248546291714

    Im no boris fan but its bloody justin welby. That also says tories on 40%.
    It's the Opinium poll that they are referencing.
  • Brexit referendum should never have been called, say majority of voters

    Twice as many people now think it would have been better never to have held a referendum on Brexit than believe it was a good idea, according to the latest Opinium poll for the Observer.

    Asked to consider the difficulties the government has had in reaching an agreement, 57% of UK adults surveyed said that they believed it would have been better not to have had a public vote in June 2016.

    This compares with 29% of voters who believe it was right to hold the referendum on whether the UK should stay in or leave the EU.

    The findings reflect a growing sense of public weariness about arguments over Brexit, which have paralysed British politics and divided the country. People who voted to remain in the EU are overwhelmingly of the view that the referendum should not have taken place, with 87% agreeing and only 7% saying it was a good idea.

    Those who voted to leave, however, still have a majority view – although a decreasing one – that it was right to have put the question to the people; 57% of this group said that they believed it was the correct decision, against 32% who now think the reverse.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/26/opinium-poll-observer-uk-voters-regret-brexit-referendum-conservative-lead-over-labour

    How pointless is that as a poll? We've had the Referendum. Live with it, Remainers. Or invent a fucking time machine.
    Not just Remainers.

    It is an indication that Brexit will continue to be a sore point no matter what happens.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Interesting idea. If such a bill comes about there will be attempts to amend it to allow EU nationals and 16/17 year olds to vote. And if the expelled Tories support such amendments then they will pass.
    I assume you have not read the article that states amendments would be voted down by the combined force of Conservatives, SNP and Lib Dems and I understand the DUP supports the election

    It is game over for labour playing games
    Your're commentis unintentionally telling in that is only game over for 'Labour' playing games.
    Everything is a disaster for Labour according to Big G. FU etc

    We will see if they are as wrong as they were in 2017 or not at 10pm on GE day.
    It does look like it BJO
    What that you will be as wrong as 2017?
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    edited October 2019
    I guess Johnson (and Corbyn) will not want to be seen to dance to the Lib Dems' tune so this is not likely to get anywhere. Such a bill would need either government support or an SO 24 motion to get parliamentary time. And, of course, MPs have no control over the length of the A50 extension the EU might offer.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,129
    edited October 2019

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Interesting idea. If such a bill comes about there will be attempts to amend it to allow EU nationals and 16/17 year olds to vote. And if the expelled Tories support such amendments then they will pass.
    I assume you have not read the article that states amendments would be voted down by the combined force of Conservatives, SNP and Lib Dems and I understand the DUP supports the election

    It is game over for labour playing games
    Your're commentis unintentionally telling in that is only game over for 'Labour' playing games.
    Everything is a disaster for Labour according to Big G. FU etc

    We will see if they are as wrong as they were in 2017 or not at 10pm on GE day.
    Errrhhh.....in 2017 i said i thought that the massive may leads were nonsense and called labour doing a lot better in 2017 during the campaign as i posted at the time the polls were showing tories lead with middle aged middle class voters had evaporated.

    I also called they would propose free uni and it would be incredibly popular.

    This time i am very surprised if they dont propose drug reform, most probably things like medical marijuana.
    Did you your off the hook then.


    Lots of PB Tories were predicting Labour wipeout and Tory landslide.

    Same poster making same type of comments now.

    IMO they should be cautious in order to avoid disappointment
    I did still think tories would get a majority, which obviously i was wrong about. Just that i didnt buy the 150 seat majority, flat cap frank labour all this life voting may and that i posted out so big red flags in the polling among important demographic that swings elections.
  • valleyboy said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    What's in it for them?

    Labour getting marmalised for the LibDems - possibly replacing the DUP as the power brokers in a hung Parliament; SNP getting a mandate for another referendum.

    That Labour haven't spotted this route is weird - we've all been talking about it on here for weeks.

    Nobody's spotted Tory Swinson is a Tory enabler?

    I think they have.
    Sheer madness by the Libs. A Tory win and brexit on Johnson's terms almost inevitable. Swinson can kiss her revocation or referendum goodbye. She may as well kiss Johnsons arse She must be a Tory in disguise.
    Quick calculation not sure, unless a load of Labour vote for it, that it will get through.
    Labour need to regain face and vote for it on monday

    Otherwise they are going to be horribly cornered by the opposition parties and in a very dark place
  • valleyboyvalleyboy Posts: 606

    Brexit referendum should never have been called, say majority of voters

    Twice as many people now think it would have been better never to have held a referendum on Brexit than believe it was a good idea, according to the latest Opinium poll for the Observer.

    Asked to consider the difficulties the government has had in reaching an agreement, 57% of UK adults surveyed said that they believed it would have been better not to have had a public vote in June 2016.

    This compares with 29% of voters who believe it was right to hold the referendum on whether the UK should stay in or leave the EU.

    The findings reflect a growing sense of public weariness about arguments over Brexit, which have paralysed British politics and divided the country. People who voted to remain in the EU are overwhelmingly of the view that the referendum should not have taken place, with 87% agreeing and only 7% saying it was a good idea.

    Those who voted to leave, however, still have a majority view – although a decreasing one – that it was right to have put the question to the people; 57% of this group said that they believed it was the correct decision, against 32% who now think the reverse.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/26/opinium-poll-observer-uk-voters-regret-brexit-referendum-conservative-lead-over-labour

    I said at the time a referendum was madness. Nothing has happened since to change my mind.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614
    RobD said:

    What a mess the FTPA has created.

    And the LDs are not offering a sensible way out of the mess they helped to create with that lamentable piece of legislation.

    Enough game playing. Just vote for an election - and fight it when it happens.

    We need to draw a line under this parliament once and for all.

    Not sure what I’d be most looking forward to with a Tory majority government, Brexit or the repeal of the FTPA. :D
    I'll take the two-fer.....
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    justin124 said:

    I recall that back in September there were initially suggestions of holding an election on Monday 14th October , but following objections raised by the Jewish community the date was changed to Tuesday 15th October.

    Oh no LDs are Anti Semites with their Monday GE crap.

    Thank God Jezza didnt propose that then.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    valleyboy said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    What's in it for them?

    Labour getting marmalised for the LibDems - possibly replacing the DUP as the power brokers in a hung Parliament; SNP getting a mandate for another referendum.

    That Labour haven't spotted this route is weird - we've all been talking about it on here for weeks.

    Nobody's spotted Tory Swinson is a Tory enabler?

    I think they have.
    Sheer madness by the Libs. A Tory win and brexit on Johnson's terms almost inevitable. Swinson can kiss her revocation or referendum goodbye. She may as well kiss Johnsons arse She must be a Tory in disguise.
    Quick calculation not sure, unless a load of Labour vote for it, that it will get through.
    It would probably be pretty helpful to Labour - adding credence to the Tory Little Helper theme. Not good for SNP in Scotland either.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    valleyboy said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    What's in it for them?

    Labour getting marmalised for the LibDems - possibly replacing the DUP as the power brokers in a hung Parliament; SNP getting a mandate for another referendum.

    That Labour haven't spotted this route is weird - we've all been talking about it on here for weeks.

    Nobody's spotted Tory Swinson is a Tory enabler?

    I think they have.
    Sheer madness by the Libs. A Tory win and brexit on Johnson's terms almost inevitable. Swinson can kiss her revocation or referendum goodbye. She may as well kiss Johnsons arse She must be a Tory in disguise.
    Quick calculation not sure, unless a load of Labour vote for it, that it will get through.
    Labour need to regain face and vote for it on monday

    Otherwise they are going to be horribly cornered by the opposition parties and in a very dark place
    Tick VG
  • justin124 said:

    I recall that back in September there were initially suggestions of holding an election on Monday 14th October , but following objections raised by the Jewish community the date was changed to Tuesday 15th October.

    Oh no LDs are Anti Semites with their Monday GE crap.

    Thank God Jezza didnt propose that then.
    Just when do you think Sukkot starts?
  • kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Interesting idea. If such a bill comes about there will be attempts to amend it to allow EU nationals and 16/17 year olds to vote. And if the expelled Tories support such amendments then they will pass.
    I assume you have not read the article that states amendments would be voted down by the combined force of Conservatives, SNP and Lib Dems and I understand the DUP supports the election

    It is game over for labour playing games
    Your're commentis unintentionally telling in that is only game over for 'Labour' playing games.
    Everything is a disaster for Labour according to Big G. FU etc

    We will see if they are as wrong as they were in 2017 or not at 10pm on GE day.
    It does look like it BJO
    What that you will be as wrong as 2017?
    Labour will not win an election and face losing many seats

    The conservstives cannot count on a majority but it is just possible

    The Lib Dems are going to do very well at labour and some conservatives expense
  • I guess Johnson (and Corbyn) will not want to be seen to dance to the Lib Dems' tune so this is not likely to get anywhere. Such a bill would need either government support or an SO 24 motion to get parliamentary time. And, of course, MPs have no control over the length of the A50 extension the EU might offer.

    Hope springs eternal
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Interesting idea. If such a bill comes about there will be attempts to amend it to allow EU nationals and 16/17 year olds to vote. And if the expelled Tories support such amendments then they will pass.
    I assume you have not read the article that states amendments would be voted down by the combined force of Conservatives, SNP and Lib Dems and I understand the DUP supports the election

    It is game over for labour playing games
    Your're commentis unintentionally telling in that is only game over for 'Labour' playing games.
    Everything is a disaster for Labour according to Big G. FU etc

    We will see if they are as wrong as they were in 2017 or not at 10pm on GE day.
    It does look like it BJO
    What that you will be as wrong as 2017?
    Labour will not win an election and face losing many seats

    The conservstives cannot count on a majority but it is just possible

    The Lib Dems are going to do very well at labour and some conservatives expense
    Fewer than 30 seats.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614
    The proposed Monday election date is because there is a NATO Summit in London the previous Thursday, I believe.
  • MauveMauve Posts: 129
    I haven't had time recently to got through the polling data in detail, but are they still having to upweight leave voters to reach a 52/48 split? Is the polls incorrectly basing Brexit sentiment and enthusiasm on a vote from 3 years ago Corbyn's only hope? After 5 weeks of an election campaign where voters are told that Boris' deal is just the start of even more negotiations will they really still want to "get Brexit done"?

    I live in a bubble in Remainer-central, so can't say anything off anecdotal reports as no one will admit to voting to leave round here, but I do wonder if most people really care that much about Brexit. Voters' views reflect what's on the news - in a GE campaign there will be discussion of stuff other than Brexit, so how will the main parties' policies on other issues go down (if they even have any)?
  • justin124 said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Interesting idea. If such a bill comes about there will be attempts to amend it to allow EU nationals and 16/17 year olds to vote. And if the expelled Tories support such amendments then they will pass.
    I assume you have not read the article that states amendments would be voted down by the combined force of Conservatives, SNP and Lib Dems and I understand the DUP supports the election

    It is game over for labour playing games
    Your're commentis unintentionally telling in that is only game over for 'Labour' playing games.
    Everything is a disaster for Labour according to Big G. FU etc

    We will see if they are as wrong as they were in 2017 or not at 10pm on GE day.
    It does look like it BJO
    What that you will be as wrong as 2017?
    Labour will not win an election and face losing many seats

    The conservstives cannot count on a majority but it is just possible

    The Lib Dems are going to do very well at labour and some conservatives expense
    Fewer than 30 seats.
    Possibly
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Expect a load of Bishop bashing from supporters of Boris Johnson.

    https://twitter.com/thesundaytimes/status/1188198248546291714

    I just wish all the old Etonians in the world would mutually self annihilate.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    The proposed Monday election date is because there is a NATO Summit in London the previous Thursday, I believe.

    Doesn’t seem like a good reason.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    valleyboy said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    What's in it for them?

    Labour getting marmalised for the LibDems - possibly replacing the DUP as the power brokers in a hung Parliament; SNP getting a mandate for another referendum.

    That Labour haven't spotted this route is weird - we've all been talking about it on here for weeks.

    Nobody's spotted Tory Swinson is a Tory enabler?

    I think they have.
    Sheer madness by the Libs. A Tory win and brexit on Johnson's terms almost inevitable. Swinson can kiss her revocation or referendum goodbye. She may as well kiss Johnsons arse She must be a Tory in disguise.
    Quick calculation not sure, unless a load of Labour vote for it, that it will get through.
    Labour need to regain face and vote for it on monday

    Otherwise they are going to be horribly cornered by the opposition parties and in a very dark place
    Translation if there is not a GE soon Boris is gonna get blamed for no Brexit.
  • The proposed Monday election date is because there is a NATO Summit in London the previous Thursday, I believe.

    So what's wrong with the proposed Thursday?
  • Mauve said:

    I haven't had time recently to got through the polling data in detail, but are they still having to upweight leave voters to reach a 52/48 split? Is the polls incorrectly basing Brexit sentiment and enthusiasm on a vote from 3 years ago Corbyn's only hope? After 5 weeks of an election campaign where voters are told that Boris' deal is just the start of even more negotiations will they really still want to "get Brexit done"?

    I live in a bubble in Remainer-central, so can't say anything off anecdotal reports as no one will admit to voting to leave round here, but I do wonder if most people really care that much about Brexit. Voters' views reflect what's on the news - in a GE campaign there will be discussion of stuff other than Brexit, so how will the main parties' policies on other issues go down (if they even have any)?

    Corbyn's major hope is that the electorate has changed a lot since 2016 and 2017.

    There's been 100,000s of voters added to the electoral roll that have disproportionately come from the 3 million EU citizens who weren't eligible to vote in general elections.
  • valleyboy said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    What's in it for them?

    Labour getting marmalised for the LibDems - possibly replacing the DUP as the power brokers in a hung Parliament; SNP getting a mandate for another referendum.

    That Labour haven't spotted this route is weird - we've all been talking about it on here for weeks.

    Nobody's spotted Tory Swinson is a Tory enabler?

    I think they have.
    Sheer madness by the Libs. A Tory win and brexit on Johnson's terms almost inevitable. Swinson can kiss her revocation or referendum goodbye. She may as well kiss Johnsons arse She must be a Tory in disguise.
    Quick calculation not sure, unless a load of Labour vote for it, that it will get through.
    Labour need to regain face and vote for it on monday

    Otherwise they are going to be horribly cornered by the opposition parties and in a very dark place
    Translation if there is not a GE soon Boris is gonna get blamed for no Brexit.
    No, everyone knows it is Parliament blocking it. We aren't idiots.
  • Mauve said:

    I haven't had time recently to got through the polling data in detail, but are they still having to upweight leave voters to reach a 52/48 split? Is the polls incorrectly basing Brexit sentiment and enthusiasm on a vote from 3 years ago Corbyn's only hope? After 5 weeks of an election campaign where voters are told that Boris' deal is just the start of even more negotiations will they really still want to "get Brexit done"?

    I live in a bubble in Remainer-central, so can't say anything off anecdotal reports as no one will admit to voting to leave round here, but I do wonder if most people really care that much about Brexit. Voters' views reflect what's on the news - in a GE campaign there will be discussion of stuff other than Brexit, so how will the main parties' policies on other issues go down (if they even have any)?

    Boris has just had his QS passed and there is the manifesto plus a few popular bits added
  • What odds Tories poll in the 40s at the election and Labour in the 20s?
  • RobD said:

    The proposed Monday election date is because there is a NATO Summit in London the previous Thursday, I believe.

    Doesn’t seem like a good reason.

    The proposed Monday election date is because there is a NATO Summit in London the previous Thursday, I believe.

    So what's wrong with the proposed Thursday?
    Broadcast rules couldn't cope with Boris Johnson holding a NATO summit on the election day.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Floater said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    What's in it for them?

    Watching Labour get fecked?
    Oh to have been a fly on Floaters wall at 10pm on GE2017.

    Never learns.
    The EICIPM debacle doesn't seem too have taught you much, either.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I thought the LDs were against an election this year.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    Mauve said:

    I haven't had time recently to got through the polling data in detail, but are they still having to upweight leave voters to reach a 52/48 split? Is the polls incorrectly basing Brexit sentiment and enthusiasm on a vote from 3 years ago Corbyn's only hope? After 5 weeks of an election campaign where voters are told that Boris' deal is just the start of even more negotiations will they really still want to "get Brexit done"?

    I live in a bubble in Remainer-central, so can't say anything off anecdotal reports as no one will admit to voting to leave round here, but I do wonder if most people really care that much about Brexit. Voters' views reflect what's on the news - in a GE campaign there will be discussion of stuff other than Brexit, so how will the main parties' policies on other issues go down (if they even have any)?

    Corbyn's major hope is that the electorate has changed a lot since 2016 and 2017.

    There's been 100,000s of voters added to the electoral roll that have disproportionately come from the 3 million EU citizens who weren't eligible to vote in general elections.
    Well unless they’ve successfully acquired British citizenship, or are citizens or Ireland Malta or Cyprus they’re still not eligible to vote in a GE.

    How may have acquired citizenship? Genuine question.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,722

    RobD said:

    The proposed Monday election date is because there is a NATO Summit in London the previous Thursday, I believe.

    Doesn’t seem like a good reason.

    The proposed Monday election date is because there is a NATO Summit in London the previous Thursday, I believe.

    So what's wrong with the proposed Thursday?
    Broadcast rules couldn't cope with Boris Johnson holding a NATO summit on the election day.
    It would be fun to have Jezza hosting the NATO summit. The look on Trump's face...
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591

    Mauve said:

    I haven't had time recently to got through the polling data in detail, but are they still having to upweight leave voters to reach a 52/48 split? Is the polls incorrectly basing Brexit sentiment and enthusiasm on a vote from 3 years ago Corbyn's only hope? After 5 weeks of an election campaign where voters are told that Boris' deal is just the start of even more negotiations will they really still want to "get Brexit done"?

    I live in a bubble in Remainer-central, so can't say anything off anecdotal reports as no one will admit to voting to leave round here, but I do wonder if most people really care that much about Brexit. Voters' views reflect what's on the news - in a GE campaign there will be discussion of stuff other than Brexit, so how will the main parties' policies on other issues go down (if they even have any)?

    Boris has just had his QS passed and there is the manifesto plus a few popular bits added
    Odd that they have cancelled the budget - would have been an opportunity for a few crowd pleasers.
  • AndyJS said:

    I thought the LDs were against an election this year.

    They may never have a better chance to be a deal maker and get their referendum
  • Mauve said:

    I haven't had time recently to got through the polling data in detail, but are they still having to upweight leave voters to reach a 52/48 split? Is the polls incorrectly basing Brexit sentiment and enthusiasm on a vote from 3 years ago Corbyn's only hope? After 5 weeks of an election campaign where voters are told that Boris' deal is just the start of even more negotiations will they really still want to "get Brexit done"?

    I live in a bubble in Remainer-central, so can't say anything off anecdotal reports as no one will admit to voting to leave round here, but I do wonder if most people really care that much about Brexit. Voters' views reflect what's on the news - in a GE campaign there will be discussion of stuff other than Brexit, so how will the main parties' policies on other issues go down (if they even have any)?

    Boris has just had his QS passed and there is the manifesto plus a few popular bits added
    Odd that they have cancelled the budget - would have been an opportunity for a few crowd pleasers.
    They consider it a waste of time
  • MauveMauve Posts: 129

    Mauve said:

    I haven't had time recently to got through the polling data in detail, but are they still having to upweight leave voters to reach a 52/48 split? Is the polls incorrectly basing Brexit sentiment and enthusiasm on a vote from 3 years ago Corbyn's only hope? After 5 weeks of an election campaign where voters are told that Boris' deal is just the start of even more negotiations will they really still want to "get Brexit done"?

    I live in a bubble in Remainer-central, so can't say anything off anecdotal reports as no one will admit to voting to leave round here, but I do wonder if most people really care that much about Brexit. Voters' views reflect what's on the news - in a GE campaign there will be discussion of stuff other than Brexit, so how will the main parties' policies on other issues go down (if they even have any)?

    Boris has just had his QS passed and there is the manifesto plus a few popular bits added
    Unfortunately the QS got completely overtaken by Brexit drama on the news, so I have no idea what was in it. The result barely seemed to be reported in the papers. I'd actually have been quite interested in knowing what the non-Brexit related policies are, as other than Brexit I'm much closer to the Tories than Labour politically. I read something about Priti Patel wanting to recruit more police, but other than that have no idea what the government proposed. If I'm that clueless about it, as someone who follows politics more closely than average, then what will the average voter have taken away from it all?
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138

    I guess Johnson (and Corbyn) will not want to be seen to dance to the Lib Dems' tune so this is not likely to get anywhere. Such a bill would need either government support or an SO 24 motion to get parliamentary time. And, of course, MPs have no control over the length of the A50 extension the EU might offer.

    Boris will take it.

    He wants an election badly.
  • welshowl said:

    Mauve said:

    I haven't had time recently to got through the polling data in detail, but are they still having to upweight leave voters to reach a 52/48 split? Is the polls incorrectly basing Brexit sentiment and enthusiasm on a vote from 3 years ago Corbyn's only hope? After 5 weeks of an election campaign where voters are told that Boris' deal is just the start of even more negotiations will they really still want to "get Brexit done"?

    I live in a bubble in Remainer-central, so can't say anything off anecdotal reports as no one will admit to voting to leave round here, but I do wonder if most people really care that much about Brexit. Voters' views reflect what's on the news - in a GE campaign there will be discussion of stuff other than Brexit, so how will the main parties' policies on other issues go down (if they even have any)?

    Corbyn's major hope is that the electorate has changed a lot since 2016 and 2017.

    There's been 100,000s of voters added to the electoral roll that have disproportionately come from the 3 million EU citizens who weren't eligible to vote in general elections.
    Well unless they’ve successfully acquired British citizenship, or are citizens or Ireland Malta or Cyprus they’re still not eligible to vote in a GE.

    How may have acquired citizenship? Genuine question.
    I did see a figure of 400,000 applications since June 2016 earlier on this year.

    Alastair also did a piece on why the electorate may have changed since 2016 and why reweighting back to 52:48 maybe wrong.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/09/06/the-remainers-of-the-day-why-are-pollsters-consistently-finding-more-remainers-than-you-would-expect/
  • welshowl said:

    Mauve said:

    I haven't had time recently to got through the polling data in detail, but are they still having to upweight leave voters to reach a 52/48 split? Is the polls incorrectly basing Brexit sentiment and enthusiasm on a vote from 3 years ago Corbyn's only hope? After 5 weeks of an election campaign where voters are told that Boris' deal is just the start of even more negotiations will they really still want to "get Brexit done"?

    I live in a bubble in Remainer-central, so can't say anything off anecdotal reports as no one will admit to voting to leave round here, but I do wonder if most people really care that much about Brexit. Voters' views reflect what's on the news - in a GE campaign there will be discussion of stuff other than Brexit, so how will the main parties' policies on other issues go down (if they even have any)?

    Corbyn's major hope is that the electorate has changed a lot since 2016 and 2017.

    There's been 100,000s of voters added to the electoral roll that have disproportionately come from the 3 million EU citizens who weren't eligible to vote in general elections.
    Well unless they’ve successfully acquired British citizenship, or are citizens or Ireland Malta or Cyprus they’re still not eligible to vote in a GE.

    How may have acquired citizenship? Genuine question.
    I did see a figure of 400,000 applications since June 2016 earlier on this year.

    Alastair also did a piece on why the electorate may have changed since 2016 and why reweighting back to 52:48 maybe wrong.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/09/06/the-remainers-of-the-day-why-are-pollsters-consistently-finding-more-remainers-than-you-would-expect/
    The question is if you are an EU migrant with a vote and you see labours offer of another negotiation ie uncertainty, surely you go lib dem clear cancel brexit offer.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    Surely the real question here is that if Boris is offered an election, can he afford to be seen to turn it down?

    We have had the Tory loyalists and partisans on here for weeks going "You're all frit. We want an election. Bring it on". Boris has had several goes at getting an election.

    He will look a right idiot if the LDs/SNP offer him one and he goes "Err... no!"
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    edited October 2019

    welshowl said:

    Mauve said:

    I haven't had time recently to got through the polling data in detail, but are they still having to upweight leave voters to reach a 52/48 split? Is the polls incorrectly basing Brexit sentiment and enthusiasm on a vote from 3 years ago Corbyn's only hope? After 5 weeks of an election campaign where voters are told that Boris' deal is just the start of even more negotiations will they really still want to "get Brexit done"?

    I live in a bubble in Remainer-central, so can't say anything off anecdotal reports as no one will admit to voting to leave round here, but I do wonder if most people really care that much about Brexit. Voters' views reflect what's on the news - in a GE campaign there will be discussion of stuff other than Brexit, so how will the main parties' policies on other issues go down (if they even have any)?

    Corbyn's major hope is that the electorate has changed a lot since 2016 and 2017.

    There's been 100,000s of voters added to the electoral roll that have disproportionately come from the 3 million EU citizens who weren't eligible to vote in general elections.
    Well unless they’ve successfully acquired British citizenship, or are citizens or Ireland Malta or Cyprus they’re still not eligible to vote in a GE.

    How may have acquired citizenship? Genuine question.
    I did see a figure of 400,000 applications since June 2016 earlier on this year.

    Alastair also did a piece on why the electorate may have changed since 2016 and why reweighting back to 52:48 maybe wrong.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/09/06/the-remainers-of-the-day-why-are-pollsters-consistently-finding-more-remainers-than-you-would-expect/
    Ok so 615 votes per constituency ( but probably biased towards London), even if heavily biased towards LD/Labour ( likely but not a slam dunk - eg city bankers), only going to make a difference in highly marginal seats. Maybe move 2-3 tops? Assuming 400k applications are successful and they all vote, neither of which will be the case.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    nunuone said:

    I guess Johnson (and Corbyn) will not want to be seen to dance to the Lib Dems' tune so this is not likely to get anywhere. Such a bill would need either government support or an SO 24 motion to get parliamentary time. And, of course, MPs have no control over the length of the A50 extension the EU might offer.

    Boris will take it.

    He wants an election badly.
    Does he? Some of his advisors do. Not the same thing. Depends who he talks to on Monday morning.
  • Mauve said:

    Mauve said:

    I haven't had time recently to got through the polling data in detail, but are they still having to upweight leave voters to reach a 52/48 split? Is the polls incorrectly basing Brexit sentiment and enthusiasm on a vote from 3 years ago Corbyn's only hope? After 5 weeks of an election campaign where voters are told that Boris' deal is just the start of even more negotiations will they really still want to "get Brexit done"?

    I live in a bubble in Remainer-central, so can't say anything off anecdotal reports as no one will admit to voting to leave round here, but I do wonder if most people really care that much about Brexit. Voters' views reflect what's on the news - in a GE campaign there will be discussion of stuff other than Brexit, so how will the main parties' policies on other issues go down (if they even have any)?

    Boris has just had his QS passed and there is the manifesto plus a few popular bits added
    Unfortunately the QS got completely overtaken by Brexit drama on the news, so I have no idea what was in it. The result barely seemed to be reported in the papers. I'd actually have been quite interested in knowing what the non-Brexit related policies are, as other than Brexit I'm much closer to the Tories than Labour politically. I read something about Priti Patel wanting to recruit more police, but other than that have no idea what the government proposed. If I'm that clueless about it, as someone who follows politics more closely than average, then what will the average voter have taken away from it all?
    Nothing really but the point is that will be their manifesto including 20,000 more police, 40 new hospitals, big uplift in the pupil premium, and £9 per hour minimum wage for all 21s plus
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    The proposed Monday election date is because there is a NATO Summit in London the previous Thursday, I believe.

    Doesn’t seem like a good reason.

    The proposed Monday election date is because there is a NATO Summit in London the previous Thursday, I believe.

    So what's wrong with the proposed Thursday?
    Broadcast rules couldn't cope with Boris Johnson holding a NATO summit on the election day.
    It would be fun to have Jezza hosting the NATO summit. The look on Trump's face...
    Dunno. Both of them want to scrap NATO.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772

    Mauve said:

    Mauve said:

    I haven't had time recently to got through the polling data in detail, but are they still having to upweight leave voters to reach a 52/48 split? Is the polls incorrectly basing Brexit sentiment and enthusiasm on a vote from 3 years ago Corbyn's only hope? After 5 weeks of an election campaign where voters are told that Boris' deal is just the start of even more negotiations will they really still want to "get Brexit done"?

    I live in a bubble in Remainer-central, so can't say anything off anecdotal reports as no one will admit to voting to leave round here, but I do wonder if most people really care that much about Brexit. Voters' views reflect what's on the news - in a GE campaign there will be discussion of stuff other than Brexit, so how will the main parties' policies on other issues go down (if they even have any)?

    Boris has just had his QS passed and there is the manifesto plus a few popular bits added
    Unfortunately the QS got completely overtaken by Brexit drama on the news, so I have no idea what was in it. The result barely seemed to be reported in the papers. I'd actually have been quite interested in knowing what the non-Brexit related policies are, as other than Brexit I'm much closer to the Tories than Labour politically. I read something about Priti Patel wanting to recruit more police, but other than that have no idea what the government proposed. If I'm that clueless about it, as someone who follows politics more closely than average, then what will the average voter have taken away from it all?
    Nothing really but the point is that will be their manifesto including 20,000 more police, 40 new hospitals, big uplift in the pupil premium, and £9 per hour minimum wage for all 21s plus
    It is NOT 40 new hospitals. Total spin from the party previously known as conservative.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    Am I supposed to be impressed?
  • I sense the split between the 'I'm no Boris fan but..' mob and the 'I'm no Boris fan 'cos he's a c***' mob is going to become even more stark in the coming days.
  • Am I supposed to be impressed?
    Yes.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    It's lucky for Labour that Corbyn is such a brilliant campaigner...

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1188145386218754049
  • welshowl said:

    Mauve said:

    I haven't had time recently to got through the polling data in detail, but are they still having to upweight leave voters to reach a 52/48 split? Is the polls incorrectly basing Brexit sentiment and enthusiasm on a vote from 3 years ago Corbyn's only hope? After 5 weeks of an election campaign where voters are told that Boris' deal is just the start of even more negotiations will they really still want to "get Brexit done"?

    I live in a bubble in Remainer-central, so can't say anything off anecdotal reports as no one will admit to voting to leave round here, but I do wonder if most people really care that much about Brexit. Voters' views reflect what's on the news - in a GE campaign there will be discussion of stuff other than Brexit, so how will the main parties' policies on other issues go down (if they even have any)?

    Corbyn's major hope is that the electorate has changed a lot since 2016 and 2017.

    There's been 100,000s of voters added to the electoral roll that have disproportionately come from the 3 million EU citizens who weren't eligible to vote in general elections.
    Well unless they’ve successfully acquired British citizenship, or are citizens or Ireland Malta or Cyprus they’re still not eligible to vote in a GE.

    How may have acquired citizenship? Genuine question.
    I did see a figure of 400,000 applications since June 2016 earlier on this year.

    Alastair also did a piece on why the electorate may have changed since 2016 and why reweighting back to 52:48 maybe wrong.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/09/06/the-remainers-of-the-day-why-are-pollsters-consistently-finding-more-remainers-than-you-would-expect/
    According to the Immigration Service 42,037 EU citizens became British citizens in 2018. Up from 25,000 in 2017.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605
    On Betfair, an election in December is odds against. I wouldn't get too excited.
  • Surely the real question here is that if Boris is offered an election, can he afford to be seen to turn it down?

    We have had the Tory loyalists and partisans on here for weeks going "You're all frit. We want an election. Bring it on". Boris has had several goes at getting an election.

    He will look a right idiot if the LDs/SNP offer him one and he goes "Err... no!"

    If the FTPA falls on monday, it will very much depend on the EU's extension and terms on tuesday, when he will either go ahead with another vote if labour are on board, otherwise accept the Lib Dem proposals to achieve the GE

    I really think a December election is coming
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,003
    edited October 2019
    'Very unusual to see splits within the SNP'

    Lol! 'SNP split' is third fav go to headline after 'SNP accused' and 'SNP a cult'.

  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    Mauve said:

    Mauve said:

    I haven't had time recently to got through the polling data in detail, but are they still having to upweight leave voters to reach a 52/48 split? Is the polls incorrectly basing Brexit sentiment and enthusiasm on a vote from 3 years ago Corbyn's only hope? After 5 weeks of an election campaign where voters are told that Boris' deal is just the start of even more negotiations will they really still want to "get Brexit done"?

    I live in a bubble in Remainer-central, so can't say anything off anecdotal reports as no one will admit to voting to leave round here, but I do wonder if most people really care that much about Brexit. Voters' views reflect what's on the news - in a GE campaign there will be discussion of stuff other than Brexit, so how will the main parties' policies on other issues go down (if they even have any)?

    Boris has just had his QS passed and there is the manifesto plus a few popular bits added
    Unfortunately the QS got completely overtaken by Brexit drama on the news, so I have no idea what was in it. The result barely seemed to be reported in the papers. I'd actually have been quite interested in knowing what the non-Brexit related policies are, as other than Brexit I'm much closer to the Tories than Labour politically. I read something about Priti Patel wanting to recruit more police, but other than that have no idea what the government proposed. If I'm that clueless about it, as someone who follows politics more closely than average, then what will the average voter have taken away from it all?
    Nothing really but the point is that will be their manifesto including 20,000 more police, 40 new hospitals, big uplift in the pupil premium, and £9 per hour minimum wage for all 21s plus
    So your party is attempting to undo the damage it has caused over the last few years?

    How nice of them :smirk:
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    Am I supposed to be impressed?
    Yes.
    It failed.
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138

    It's lucky for Labour that Corbyn is such a brilliant campaigner...

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1188145386218754049

    He actually is when he wants to be.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    It's lucky for Labour that Corbyn is such a brilliant campaigner...

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1188145386218754049

    That’s a nice plot. :D
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited October 2019
    Hmm, looks like I might have to eat my words about there not being an election this year.

    As such, I may as well make another prediction which will blow up in my face: both the Tories and Labour are going to do better than polls currently predict. I'll say something like 42% for the Tories, 37% for Labour.

    It's going to be Clinton/Trump all over again: people thought those two being so unpopular meant third parties would surge, but, in the end, so many people thought one of the two options was so grotesque that they ended up going with someone they thought was only mildly grotesque.
  • welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Mauve said:

    I haven't had time recently to got through the polling data in detail, but are they still having to upweight leave voters to reach a 52/48 split? Is the polls incorrectly basing Brexit sentiment and enthusiasm on a vote from 3 years ago Corbyn's only hope? After 5 weeks of an election campaign where voters are told that Boris' deal is just the start of even more negotiations will they really still want to "get Brexit done"?

    I live in a bubble in Remainer-central, so can't say anything off anecdotal reports as no one will admit to voting to leave round here, but I do wonder if most people really care that much about Brexit. Voters' views reflect what's on the news - in a GE campaign there will be discussion of stuff other than Brexit, so how will the main parties' policies on other issues go down (if they even have any)?

    Corbyn's major hope is that the electorate has changed a lot since 2016 and 2017.

    There's been 100,000s of voters added to the electoral roll that have disproportionately come from the 3 million EU citizens who weren't eligible to vote in general elections.
    Well unless they’ve successfully acquired British citizenship, or are citizens or Ireland Malta or Cyprus they’re still not eligible to vote in a GE.

    How may have acquired citizenship? Genuine question.
    I did see a figure of 400,000 applications since June 2016 earlier on this year.

    Alastair also did a piece on why the electorate may have changed since 2016 and why reweighting back to 52:48 maybe wrong.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/09/06/the-remainers-of-the-day-why-are-pollsters-consistently-finding-more-remainers-than-you-would-expect/
    Ok so 615 votes per constituency ( but probably biased towards London), even if heavily biased towards LD/Labour ( likely but not a slam dunk - eg city bankers), only going to make a difference in highly marginal seats. Maybe move 2-3 tops? Assuming 400k applications are successful and they all vote, neither of which will be the case.
    Its not even that. In terms of EU nationals it is probably less than 100,000 new citizens since the referendum.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Danny565 said:

    Hmm, looks like I might have to eat my words about there not being an election this year.

    As such, I may as well make another prediction which will blow up in my face: both the Tories and Labour are going to do better than polls currently predict. I'll say something like 42% for the Tories, 37% for Labour (Lib Dems 11%, Brexit Party 4%, Greens 2%).

    37 for Labour????
  • Am I supposed to be impressed?
    Yes.
    It failed.
    You have no soul.

    England produced their greatest ever performance today, even better than 2003.

    Though when we lose to Wales next week we'd have preferred to have been destroyed 76 nil by the All Blacks.
  • Mauve said:

    Mauve said:

    I haven't had time recently to got through the polling data in detail, but are they still having to upweight leave voters to reach a 52/48 split? Is the polls incorrectly basing Brexit sentiment and enthusiasm on a vote from 3 years ago Corbyn's only hope? After 5 weeks of an election campaign where voters are told that Boris' deal is just the start of even more negotiations will they really still want to "get Brexit done"?

    I live in a bubble in Remainer-central, so can't say anything off anecdotal reports as no one will admit to voting to leave round here, but I do wonder if most people really care that much about Brexit. Voters' views reflect what's on the news - in a GE campaign there will be discussion of stuff other than Brexit, so how will the main parties' policies on other issues go down (if they even have any)?

    Boris has just had his QS passed and there is the manifesto plus a few popular bits added
    Unfortunately the QS got completely overtaken by Brexit drama on the news, so I have no idea what was in it. The result barely seemed to be reported in the papers. I'd actually have been quite interested in knowing what the non-Brexit related policies are, as other than Brexit I'm much closer to the Tories than Labour politically. I read something about Priti Patel wanting to recruit more police, but other than that have no idea what the government proposed. If I'm that clueless about it, as someone who follows politics more closely than average, then what will the average voter have taken away from it all?
    Nothing really but the point is that will be their manifesto including 20,000 more police, 40 new hospitals, big uplift in the pupil premium, and £9 per hour minimum wage for all 21s plus
    It is NOT 40 new hospitals. Total spin from the party previously known as conservative.
    Yes - you are right in so far as it is a long term plan, though some of the 40 are in play

    However, it will be a manifesto commitment
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    edited October 2019
    nunuone said:

    I guess Johnson (and Corbyn) will not want to be seen to dance to the Lib Dems' tune so this is not likely to get anywhere. Such a bill would need either government support or an SO 24 motion to get parliamentary time. And, of course, MPs have no control over the length of the A50 extension the EU might offer.

    Boris will take it.

    He wants an election badly.
    I get the impression the Tories went for the 12th December knowing it would be changed to 5th December by the opposition. They probably don't care either way.
  • Danny565 said:

    Hmm, looks like I might have to eat my words about there not being an election this year.

    As such, I may as well make another prediction which will blow up in my face: both the Tories and Labour are going to do better than polls currently predict. I'll say something like 42% for the Tories, 37% for Labour (Lib Dems 11%, Brexit Party 4%, Greens 2%).

    I think the Lib Dems will do better and Labour worse. But I think Brexit fatigue will help the Tories fight off the Brexit Party.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    welshowl said:

    Mauve said:

    I haven't had time recently to got through the polling data in detail, but are they still having to upweight leave voters to reach a 52/48 split? Is the polls incorrectly basing Brexit sentiment and enthusiasm on a vote from 3 years ago Corbyn's only hope? After 5 weeks of an election campaign where voters are told that Boris' deal is just the start of even more negotiations will they really still want to "get Brexit done"?

    I live in a bubble in Remainer-central, so can't say anything off anecdotal reports as no one will admit to voting to leave round here, but I do wonder if most people really care that much about Brexit. Voters' views reflect what's on the news - in a GE campaign there will be discussion of stuff other than Brexit, so how will the main parties' policies on other issues go down (if they even have any)?

    Corbyn's major hope is that the electorate has changed a lot since 2016 and 2017.

    There's been 100,000s of voters added to the electoral roll that have disproportionately come from the 3 million EU citizens who weren't eligible to vote in general elections.
    Well unless they’ve successfully acquired British citizenship, or are citizens or Ireland Malta or Cyprus they’re still not eligible to vote in a GE.

    How may have acquired citizenship? Genuine question.
    I did see a figure of 400,000 applications since June 2016 earlier on this year.

    Alastair also did a piece on why the electorate may have changed since 2016 and why reweighting back to 52:48 maybe wrong.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/09/06/the-remainers-of-the-day-why-are-pollsters-consistently-finding-more-remainers-than-you-would-expect/
    According to the Immigration Service 42,037 EU citizens became British citizens in 2018. Up from 25,000 in 2017.
    Our immigration team has never been busier with citizenship applications
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614

    It's lucky for Labour that Corbyn is such a brilliant campaigner...

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1188145386218754049

    That now 9% gap between LibDems and Labour is interesting. Revoke not a winner?
  • An excuse to share my favourite rugby joke.

    Following complaints made to the IRB about the All Blacks being allowed to motivate themselves by performing the 'Haka' before their games, other nations were asked to suggest pre-match rituals of their own. The IRB Committee has now agreed to the following pre-match displays:

    1.. The England team will chat about the weather, wave hankies in the air and attach bells to their ankles before moaning about how they invented the game and gave it to the world, and how it's not fair that everyone still thinks New Zealand are the best team in the world.

    2. The Scotland team will chant "You lookin' at me Jimmy?" before smashing an Iron Bru bottle over their opponents' heads.

    3.. The Ireland team will split into two, with the Southern half performing a Riverdance, while the Northerners march the Traditional route from their dressing room to the pitch, via their opponents dressing room.

    4.. Argentina will unexpectedly invade a small part of opposition territory, claim it as their own "Las In-Goals-Areas" and then be forcibly removed by the match stewards.

    5.. Two members of the South African team will claim to be more important than the other 13 whom they will imprison between the posts whilst they claim the rest of the pitch for themselves.

    6.. The Americans will not attend until almost full time. In future years they will amend the records to show that they were in fact the most important team in the tournament and Hollywood will make a film called 'Saving No.8 Lyle'.

    7.. Five of the Canadian team will sing La Marseillaise and hold the rest of the team to ransom.

    8.. The Italian team will arrive in Armani gear, sexually harass the female stewards and then run away.

    9.. The Spanish will sneak into the other half of the pitch, mow it and then claim that it was all in line with European "grass quotas". They will then curl up under the posts and have a kip until half time, when their appeal for compensation against the UK Government will be heard.

    10.. The Japanese will attempt to strengthen their team by offering good salaries to the key opposition players and then run around the pitch at high speed in a highly efficient manner before buying the ground (with a subsidy from the UK Government).

    11.. The French will declare they have new scientific evidence that the opposition are in fact all mad. They will then park lorries across the halfway line, let sheep loose in the opposition half (much to the delight of the WELSH) and burn the officials.

    12.. The Australians will have a barbie before negotiating lucrative singing and TV contracts in the UK. They will then invite all their mates to come and live with them in Shepherds Bush."

    13.. Unfortunately the Committee were unable to accept the Welsh suggestion following representations from the RSPCA.

  • Mauve said:

    Mauve said:

    I haven't had time recently to got through the polling data in detail, but are they still having to upweight leave voters to reach a 52/48 split? Is the polls incorrectly basing Brexit sentiment and enthusiasm on a vote from 3 years ago Corbyn's only hope? After 5 weeks of an election campaign where voters are told that Boris' deal is just the start of even more negotiations will they really still want to "get Brexit done"?

    I live in a bubble in Remainer-central, so can't say anything off anecdotal reports as no one will admit to voting to leave round here, but I do wonder if most people really care that much about Brexit. Voters' views reflect what's on the news - in a GE campaign there will be discussion of stuff other than Brexit, so how will the main parties' policies on other issues go down (if they even have any)?

    Boris has just had his QS passed and there is the manifesto plus a few popular bits added
    Unfortunately the QS got completely overtaken by Brexit drama on the news, so I have no idea what was in it. The result barely seemed to be reported in the papers. I'd actually have been quite interested in knowing what the non-Brexit related policies are, as other than Brexit I'm much closer to the Tories than Labour politically. I read something about Priti Patel wanting to recruit more police, but other than that have no idea what the government proposed. If I'm that clueless about it, as someone who follows politics more closely than average, then what will the average voter have taken away from it all?
    Nothing really but the point is that will be their manifesto including 20,000 more police, 40 new hospitals, big uplift in the pupil premium, and £9 per hour minimum wage for all 21s plus
    So your party is attempting to undo the damage it has caused over the last few years?

    How nice of them :smirk:
    The damage was done in the 2008 financial crisis but there we are
  • RobD said:

    The proposed Monday election date is because there is a NATO Summit in London the previous Thursday, I believe.

    Doesn’t seem like a good reason.

    The proposed Monday election date is because there is a NATO Summit in London the previous Thursday, I believe.

    So what's wrong with the proposed Thursday?
    Broadcast rules couldn't cope with Boris Johnson holding a NATO summit on the election day.
    That's the Thursday prior, the 5th. What's wrong with the 12th?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    RobD said:

    The proposed Monday election date is because there is a NATO Summit in London the previous Thursday, I believe.

    Doesn’t seem like a good reason.

    The proposed Monday election date is because there is a NATO Summit in London the previous Thursday, I believe.

    So what's wrong with the proposed Thursday?
    Broadcast rules couldn't cope with Boris Johnson holding a NATO summit on the election day.
    That's the Thursday prior, the 5th. What's wrong with the 12th?
    You know how much of a fuss they make over three days of lost legislative time.
This discussion has been closed.