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  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469

    timmo said:

    Breaking on Sky

    Queens speech votes will not happen this week

    Also several mps who said they support a customs union have said they will not now

    With the DUP against a customs union and others it does look as if the custom union amendment is unlilely to pass

    Furthermore in the Downing Street briefing this morning the PM spokesperson has said if a custom union is attached it changes everything and the PM will stop the deal and call an election

    How many more times do some of us on here have to explain he cant just call a GE..
    The FTPA means he needs a 2/3rd majority in the HoC.
    He could of course resign but wont do that either so in effect he is trapped. People please wake up to this.
    But he can by a one line amendment to the FTPA and a simple majority
    And how is he going to get that exactly?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited October 2019

    isam said:

    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:

    The not sending a letter thing is honestly the biggest load of guff. I get a feeling there are actually quite a lot of people disappointed that he DID send the letter

    The people who should be disappointed are the ones who believed him when he said he wouldn't

    Taking people for fools his entire life
    It was a negotiating strategy.

    Parliament attempted to hamstring that approach.

    It resulted in a deal despite their best efforts.
    It's funny how opponents of Leave/Boris don't get this. Repeatedly saying we were leaving by Oct 31 has got us a deal that will pass (if they let anyone vote on it). Who cares if its in November or December?

    If someone values a house at 500k and bids 400k for it, they haven't mugged themselves off if they end up buying it for 475k eventually. The joke is on the people who wanted to buy it, but are laughing at him for paying the sale price, whilst they sit in a house they don't like.
    It worked (possibly) in conjunction with the Benn Act by the mechanism of Boris boxing himself in so much that he was compelled to drop his entire set of objections to the existing deal except for going back to the EU's previous offer of a special arrangement for NI, which was always available (in fact, preferred by the EU). A curious sort of victory.
    The point is that many, I would say most, Leavers dont care! They just want what they voted for, us to Leave, done, and if that gets done, the details that Remainers obsess over to gain small wins for their ego's, don't matter.


  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    edited October 2019
    Charles said:

    I don't think trade talks will dominate the political agenda / public share of mind nearly as much though

    No they won't. "Brexit" will drag on as a big factor in our politics but this febrile culture war is about the existential question of whether we really do leave the EU or not. Once we have left that debate will be over and most of the heat will IMO dissipate. Or. more pessimistically, will attach itself to other issues.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    timmo said:

    Charles said:

    CatMan said:
    I don't think trade talks will dominate the political agenda / public share of mind nearly as much though
    Its the symbolism of us leaving the EU that matters more to most people
    The effectiveness (or otherwise) of the points-based immigration controls will be much more to the front of public perceptuion on whether Brexit is working.
    I can tell you now that the points based system is going to collapse unless it is reformed from its current mess a lot more money Is put into recruiting officers at UKVI that actually understand it.
  • isam said:

    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:

    The not sending a letter thing is honestly the biggest load of guff. I get a feeling there are actually quite a lot of people disappointed that he DID send the letter

    The people who should be disappointed are the ones who believed him when he said he wouldn't

    Taking people for fools his entire life
    It was a negotiating strategy.

    Parliament attempted to hamstring that approach.

    It resulted in a deal despite their best efforts.
    It's funny how opponents of Leave/Boris don't get this. Repeatedly saying we were leaving by Oct 31 has got us a deal that will pass (if they let anyone vote on it). Who cares if its in November or December?

    If someone values a house at 500k and bids 400k for it, they haven't mugged themselves off if they end up buying it for 475k eventually. The joke is on the people who wanted to buy it, but are laughing at him for paying the sale price, whilst they sit in a house they don't like.
    It worked (possibly) in conjunction with the Benn Act by the mechanism of Boris boxing himself in so much that he was compelled to drop his entire set of objections to the existing deal except for going back to the EU's previous offer of a special arrangement for NI, which was always available (in fact, preferred by the EU). A curious sort of victory.
    Yes, Boris merely went back to the EU and got the crap, earlier version that Theresa wouldn't touch with a barge pole. Whoop-i-doo!
  • timmo said:

    timmo said:

    Breaking on Sky

    Queens speech votes will not happen this week

    Also several mps who said they support a customs union have said they will not now

    With the DUP against a customs union and others it does look as if the custom union amendment is unlilely to pass

    Furthermore in the Downing Street briefing this morning the PM spokesperson has said if a custom union is attached it changes everything and the PM will stop the deal and call an election

    How many more times do some of us on here have to explain he cant just call a GE..
    The FTPA means he needs a 2/3rd majority in the HoC.
    He could of course resign but wont do that either so in effect he is trapped. People please wake up to this.
    But he can by a one line amendment to the FTPA and a simple majority
    And how is he going to get that exactly?
    Tables the one line amendment
  • Scott_P said:

    I don't think anyone who cares if we don't leave on Hallowe'en will blame Boris, they will know exactly who is to blame.

    The ERG who refused to vote for leaving in March
    That's false.

    The ERG voted to leave in March.
    All of the ERG voted for TMay's deal?
    That's not what I said.

    They voted to leave in March. There was a straight vote in March on whether to leave or not and they voted to leave.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344
    Sorry, if this has already been covered but are Joanna Cherry and colleagues going back to the Scottish Courts? And if so, when?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    Charles said:

    CatMan said:
    I don't think trade talks will dominate the political agenda / public share of mind nearly as much though
    Which will be a very great pity because they will, to a very large extent, determine whether the benefits of Brexit will accrue and to those who most want Brexit.
  • timmo said:

    Charles said:

    CatMan said:
    I don't think trade talks will dominate the political agenda / public share of mind nearly as much though
    Its the symbolism of us leaving the EU that matters more to most people
    Not sure about that, because the ERGers, Farage etc will be strident in claiming that any FTA is 'undoing Brexit by the back door'.
    I've not seen ERGers claim a Canada-style FTA is unacceptable, have you?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Sorry, if this has already been covered but are Joanna Cherry and colleagues going back to the Scottish Courts? And if so, when?

    Happening right now
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    Brom said:

    geoffw said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Brom said:

    https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1186187728586719232

    This sounds like he's building up any old excuse to go back on his promise and vote against the deal. Incredibly transparent from Boles

    If the bill gets to third reading I believe at that point Bercow must vote Aye on a tie ?
    He won't be there if it is post 31st October
    He speaker at the time
    There's a rumour that he'll stay on if his country still needs him.
    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/10/will-john-bercow-break-his-promise-to-resign/
    And risk MPs turfing him out?

    Nah.....
    Can't see Bercow sticking around, those seeking to succeed him wouldn't be best pleased. I'm quite surprised he has decided to stand down in the first place, he could have easily dug his heels in but it's too late for him to turn the clock back now.
    He was worried there might be an election, and wanted this Parliament to vote on his successor, rather than the next one.
  • Barnesian said:

    isam said:

    nunuone said:

    Everyone is being blindsided by the 31st October deadline. What is absolutely clear is that there is a majority in the Commons to pass the WA. Given that - and given the DUP opposition to a customs union - the WA is going to pass. No wrecking amendments are going to be voted through. If it takes a week or so into November for that to happen, what does it matter?

    Let's see what happens.

    So far the establishment elite have blocked Brexit at every turn. I'll believe it when I see it.
    We voted to Leave

    The vast majority of MPs then stood at a GE promising to implement the result

    Those MPs demanded a vote on the deal, and voted NO three times.

    Now a deal is likely to pass

    The MPs vote to not have a vote

    And people have convinced themselves it isn't a stitch up. Lord have mercy

    Now that No Deal is off the table, there is absolutely no reason not to vote the Johnson deal through. And it will go through. The diehard Remainers have run out of options. But the WA does also need to be scrutinised. It is a very big deal and not something that can just be waved through. If that means leaving at the end of November instead of October are you really that bothered?
    No but Johnson is. And he will look to any means to rush the WAB through with a possible threat of No Deal which is enhanced by a yes vote to the MV today.

    Two problems with that. Inadequate scrutiny of the WAB and a small chance of an accidental No Deal in this bluffing game.

    The only way we get to No Deal from here, surely, is if the Benn Act is somehow revoked and that can only happen if Bercow allows a meaningful vote today. It's all in his hands.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    Scott_P said:

    I don't think anyone who cares if we don't leave on Hallowe'en will blame Boris, they will know exactly who is to blame.

    The ERG who refused to vote for leaving in March
    That's false.

    The ERG voted to leave in March.
    All of the ERG voted for TMay's deal?
    That's not what I said.

    They voted to leave in March. There was a straight vote in March on whether to leave or not and they voted to leave.
    So, to leave, but only on their terms.
  • Scott_P said:
    Or is it because a CU destroys the deal and voids Brexit?

    Its a wrecking amendment. Why would they continue after its been wrecked?
  • Sorry, if this has already been covered but are Joanna Cherry and colleagues going back to the Scottish Courts? And if so, when?

    She was back tracking this morning saying Boris had sent the letter

    I believe the Court is sitting about now but the Scottish reporter did not expect anything today
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077

    Scott_P said:
    That is very different and is not going to happen as Bercow is going to prevent it
    That's easy to resolve - offer an actual vote on the amended act from Saturday and see what the Government does.

    Bercow could have real fun doing that and nothing else.

  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469

    timmo said:

    Charles said:

    CatMan said:
    I don't think trade talks will dominate the political agenda / public share of mind nearly as much though
    Its the symbolism of us leaving the EU that matters more to most people
    Not sure about that, because the ERGers, Farage etc will be strident in claiming that any FTA is 'undoing Brexit by the back door'.
    That's the Faragists...most wont see it like that
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,871
    Scott_P said:
    The gov wants an election but having sunk so much into getting the deal it defies sense to think getting that done first is not the priority .
  • timmo said:

    Charles said:

    CatMan said:
    I don't think trade talks will dominate the political agenda / public share of mind nearly as much though
    Its the symbolism of us leaving the EU that matters more to most people
    Not sure about that, because the ERGers, Farage etc will be strident in claiming that any FTA is 'undoing Brexit by the back door'.
    I've not seen ERGers claim a Canada-style FTA is unacceptable, have you?
    In every single case to date they have claimed that something they previously said was their goal is 'not Brexit' after all, so it's certain that they'll do the same this time. In fact they are already gearing up for it, with John Baron already going on about WTO terms after the end of the transition.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    The only way we get to No Deal from here, surely, is if the Benn Act is somehow revoked and that can only happen if Bercow allows a meaningful vote today. It's all in his hands.

    As the ERG blurted out on Live TV, we can still get to No Deal if they pass the WA and then refuse to endorse any FTA. The cliff edge just moves. Again.
  • You have to ask how on earth have we arrived at the point that all the opposition parties are running scared of a GE

    It is surreal
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469

    timmo said:

    timmo said:

    Breaking on Sky

    Queens speech votes will not happen this week

    Also several mps who said they support a customs union have said they will not now

    With the DUP against a customs union and others it does look as if the custom union amendment is unlilely to pass

    Furthermore in the Downing Street briefing this morning the PM spokesperson has said if a custom union is attached it changes everything and the PM will stop the deal and call an election

    How many more times do some of us on here have to explain he cant just call a GE..
    The FTPA means he needs a 2/3rd majority in the HoC.
    He could of course resign but wont do that either so in effect he is trapped. People please wake up to this.
    But he can by a one line amendment to the FTPA and a simple majority
    And how is he going to get that exactly?
    Tables the one line amendment
    But he wont get it through..the SNP wont fall for it
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,017
    HYUFD said:


    Working class people voted for Brexit

    Great Brexit Myths, No. 12


  • timmo said:

    Charles said:

    CatMan said:
    I don't think trade talks will dominate the political agenda / public share of mind nearly as much though
    Its the symbolism of us leaving the EU that matters more to most people
    Not sure about that, because the ERGers, Farage etc will be strident in claiming that any FTA is 'undoing Brexit by the back door'.
    I've not seen ERGers claim a Canada-style FTA is unacceptable, have you?
    In every single case to date they have claimed that something they previously said was their goal is 'not Brexit' after all, so it's certain that they'll do the same this time. In fact they are already gearing up for it, with John Baron already going on about WTO terms after the end of the transition.
    Not Boris's deal they haven't.

    May's deal which gave an end-state that contradicted the campaign was rightly rejected. Boris's deal that aims for a Canada-style FTA has been unanimously accepted. So what's the problem?
  • isam said:

    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:

    The not sending a letter thing is honestly the biggest load of guff. I get a feeling there are actually quite a lot of people disappointed that he DID send the letter

    The people who should be disappointed are the ones who believed him when he said he wouldn't

    Taking people for fools his entire life
    It was a negotiating strategy.

    Parliament attempted to hamstring that approach.

    It resulted in a deal despite their best efforts.
    It's funny how opponents of Leave/Boris don't get this. Repeatedly saying we were leaving by Oct 31 has got us a deal that will pass (if they let anyone vote on it). Who cares if its in November or December?

    If someone values a house at 500k and bids 400k for it, they haven't mugged themselves off if they end up buying it for 475k eventually. The joke is on the people who wanted to buy it, but are laughing at him for paying the sale price, whilst they sit in a house they don't like.
    It worked (possibly) in conjunction with the Benn Act by the mechanism of Boris boxing himself in so much that he was compelled to drop his entire set of objections to the existing deal except for going back to the EU's previous offer of a special arrangement for NI, which was always available (in fact, preferred by the EU). A curious sort of victory.
    Yes, Boris merely went back to the EU and got the crap, earlier version that Theresa wouldn't touch with a barge pole. Whoop-i-doo!

    Any deal is better than no deal, though. It means that we do not drag others down with us if Brexit turns out not to be the sunlit uplands we have all been told to expect. Giving the Irish what they wanted is something that will always sit in Johnson's credit box as far as I am concerned.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:

    The not sending a letter thing is honestly the biggest load of guff. I get a feeling there are actually quite a lot of people disappointed that he DID send the letter

    The people who should be disappointed are the ones who believed him when he said he wouldn't

    Taking people for fools his entire life
    It was a negotiating strategy.

    Parliament attempted to hamstring that approach.

    It resulted in a deal despite their best efforts.
    It's funny how opponents of Leave/Boris don't get this. Repeatedly saying we were leaving by Oct 31 has got us a deal that will pass (if they let anyone vote on it). Who cares if its in November or December?

    If someone values a house at 500k and bids 400k for it, they haven't mugged themselves off if they end up buying it for 475k eventually. The joke is on the people who wanted to buy it, but are laughing at him for paying the sale price, whilst they sit in a house they don't like.
    It worked (possibly) in conjunction with the Benn Act by the mechanism of Boris boxing himself in so much that he was compelled to drop his entire set of objections to the existing deal except for going back to the EU's previous offer of a special arrangement for NI, which was always available (in fact, preferred by the EU). A curious sort of victory.
    The point is that many, I would say most, Leavers dont care! They just want what they voted for, us to Leave, done, and if that gets done, the details that Remainers obsess over to gain small wins for their ego's, don't matter.


    But surely they voted to Leave to get the benefits of a Leave vote? If those benefits don’t happen won’t that bother them?

    And if it won’t why not have a BINO then?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,551

    Sorry, if this has already been covered but are Joanna Cherry and colleagues going back to the Scottish Courts? And if so, when?

    Pannick says not necessary. Johnson sent the letter as he was required to do.

    I think Downing Street were hoping for a "victory" in court for Johnson today. Hence the spin.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314

    timmo said:

    Breaking on Sky

    Queens speech votes will not happen this week

    Also several mps who said they support a customs union have said they will not now

    With the DUP against a customs union and others it does look as if the custom union amendment is unlilely to pass

    Furthermore in the Downing Street briefing this morning the PM spokesperson has said if a custom union is attached it changes everything and the PM will stop the deal and call an election

    How many more times do some of us on here have to explain he cant just call a GE..
    The FTPA means he needs a 2/3rd majority in the HoC.
    He could of course resign but wont do that either so in effect he is trapped. People please wake up to this.
    But he can by a one line amendment to the FTPA and a simple majority
    Anything amending the FTPA would need to go through the Lords as well - and dare we say it, cause other unintended consequences. It could also be amended in either House.

    Better would be a one-line Election 2019 Bill, stating that notwithstanding the FTPA, Parliament will be dissolved on Date X for a General Election on Date Y. Would also need to go through both Houses though.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Barnesian said:

    CatMan said:
    At least with Mays deal there would have been time for a short pause to draw breath between the exit date and the next negotiations. Even if we leave in ten days the arguments about the future relationship will need to start pretty much immediately, and on that the tory party is still very split.

    It doesn't matter though, does it? Isn't it the case that once we Brexit the FTA is in the hands of the government and does not need Parliamentary approval? That's why I cannot see a No Deal happening at the end of next year - especially if the UK really does want Canada minus minus. That should be pretty easy to negotiate now that the Irish border issue has been sorted, if (and I guess it could be a big if) the UK understands what the consequences of that will be for access to the single market.

    There is likely to be an amendment to the WAB that places final approval of any FTA with parliament. I think that is likely to pass. IIRC Johnson has already promised that. This would place it in law rather than in BJ's slippery mind.
    Which would be fine
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited October 2019


    Not Boris's deal they haven't.

    May's deal which gave an end-state that contradicted the campaign was rightly rejected. Boris's deal that aims for a Canada-style FTA has been unanimously accepted. So what's the problem?

    Let's have the conversation when the draft FTA is published in a year or so. I am pretty damned sure I'll be right. They claim to want a Canada-style deal but they actually want no deal at all, certainly no deal which the EU would accept.
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,017
    Cyclefree said:

    the benefits of Brexit will accrue

    Great Brexit Myths, No. 1
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,898
    Nigelb said:

    Scott_P said:

    I don't think anyone who cares if we don't leave on Hallowe'en will blame Boris, they will know exactly who is to blame.

    The ERG who refused to vote for leaving in March
    That's false.

    The ERG voted to leave in March.
    All of the ERG voted for TMay's deal?
    That's not what I said.

    They voted to leave in March. There was a straight vote in March on whether to leave or not and they voted to leave.
    So, to leave, but only on their terms.
    Yes, everybody has their own 'Leave'.
  • Sandpit said:

    timmo said:

    Breaking on Sky

    Queens speech votes will not happen this week

    Also several mps who said they support a customs union have said they will not now

    With the DUP against a customs union and others it does look as if the custom union amendment is unlilely to pass

    Furthermore in the Downing Street briefing this morning the PM spokesperson has said if a custom union is attached it changes everything and the PM will stop the deal and call an election

    How many more times do some of us on here have to explain he cant just call a GE..
    The FTPA means he needs a 2/3rd majority in the HoC.
    He could of course resign but wont do that either so in effect he is trapped. People please wake up to this.
    But he can by a one line amendment to the FTPA and a simple majority
    Anything amending the FTPA would need to go through the Lords as well - and dare we say it, cause other unintended consequences. It could also be amended in either House.

    Better would be a one-line Election 2019 Bill, stating that notwithstanding the FTPA, Parliament will be dissolved on Date X for a General Election on Date Y. Would also need to go through both Houses though.
    Thanks and yes
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    Sterling actually up today. Market consensus that despite all the pratfalls Boris is finally getting somewhere?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    It's a meaningless gesture if they think Bercow won't allow the motion.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Cyclefree said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:

    The not sending a letter thing is honestly the biggest load of guff. I get a feeling there are actually quite a lot of people disappointed that he DID send the letter

    The people who should be disappointed are the ones who believed him when he said he wouldn't

    Taking people for fools his entire life
    It was a negotiating strategy.

    Parliament attempted to hamstring that approach.

    It resulted in a deal despite their best efforts.
    It's funny how opponents of Leave/Boris don't get this. Repeatedly saying we were leaving by Oct 31 has got us a deal that will pass (if they let anyone vote on it). Who cares if its in November or December?

    If someone values a house at 500k and bids 400k for it, they haven't mugged themselves off if they end up buying it for 475k eventually. The joke is on the people who wanted to buy it, but are laughing at him for paying the sale price, whilst they sit in a house they don't like.
    It worked (possibly) in conjunction with the Benn Act by the mechanism of Boris boxing himself in so much that he was compelled to drop his entire set of objections to the existing deal except for going back to the EU's previous offer of a special arrangement for NI, which was always available (in fact, preferred by the EU). A curious sort of victory.
    The point is that many, I would say most, Leavers dont care! They just want what they voted for, us to Leave, done, and if that gets done, the details that Remainers obsess over to gain small wins for their ego's, don't matter.


    But surely they voted to Leave to get the benefits of a Leave vote? If those benefits don’t happen won’t that bother them?

    And if it won’t why not have a BINO then?
    Because we are in the absurd situation where, nearly three and a half years after Leave won the referendum, MPs (who we were told would NOT have the final say), are refusing to pass a withdrawal agreement, and still hankering for Remain a la that old BBC show "Life without George"
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    The gov wants an election but having sunk so much into getting the deal it defies sense to think getting that done first is not the priority .
    That is true if you (or rather, HMG) expects Brexit to lead quickly and directly to the sunlit uplands. If HMG thinks Brexit will lead to a lot of short-term pain for voters, then it should hold the election first.

    The trouble is, because unicorn Brexit is popular, Boris needs to be seen to be forced into the delaying Brexit past the election.

    I could be wrong but it seems rational and more importantly, makes Boris seem rational.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    edited October 2019
    Scott_P said:
    If everyone but Labour is in favour of an election, the numbers are pretty close. Remember 434 positive votes required under FTPA unless they go down the one-line Bill route.
  • Scott_P said:

    The only way we get to No Deal from here, surely, is if the Benn Act is somehow revoked and that can only happen if Bercow allows a meaningful vote today. It's all in his hands.

    As the ERG blurted out on Live TV, we can still get to No Deal if they pass the WA and then refuse to endorse any FTA. The cliff edge just moves. Again.

    Given that the Irish border issue has bene resolved, it is hard to see how we get a No Deal at the end of next year as we have lost the small leverage we had. No deal now undoubtedly harms the UK a whole lot more than every EU member state. What's more, the deal that the Johnson government is after seems to be Canada minus minus. That should be pretty easy for the EU to agree. But I guess you're right: it is a possibility.

  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Happy Trafalgar Day everyone!

    Whether Leaver pr Remainer, hopefully all Brits can come together to be proud of being British.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344

    Sorry, if this has already been covered but are Joanna Cherry and colleagues going back to the Scottish Courts? And if so, when?

    She was back tracking this morning saying Boris had sent the letter

    I believe the Court is sitting about now but the Scottish reporter did not expect anything today
    Obliged. Bit late now, apologies, but glad to see the reports that your and Mrs G enjoyed your trip.Hope we'll be able to get away soon!
  • Gabs2 said:

    Happy Trafalgar Day everyone!

    Whether Leaver pr Remainer, hopefully all Brits can come together to be proud of being British.

    I can certainly endorse that
  • DavidL said:

    Sterling actually up today. Market consensus that despite all the pratfalls Boris is finally getting somewhere?

    He's 7-0 up with two minutes to go, just waiting for the amount of added time - if any - to be held up on the board.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Pulpstar said:

    Charles said:

    CatMan said:
    I don't think trade talks will dominate the political agenda / public share of mind nearly as much though
    Big majorities in the country (And Parliament) for close relationship with Europe once we're out I reckon.
    Yes but the executive negotiates it and parliament can only reject.

    I don’t think you will get a majority for the who “tell the executive what to do gambit” for a less important issue than Brexit
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    edited October 2019
    Scott_P said:
    As I said SNP want an election before end of January... This won't pass but I guess they're sending a signal to Boris that they're willing to play now he's sent the surrender letter. ;)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,871

    It's a meaningless gesture if they think Bercow won't allow the motion.
    They and Bojo just having political fun.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:
    If everyone but Labour is in favour of an election, the numbers are pretty close. Remember 434 positive votes required under FTPA unless they go down the one-line Bill route.
    Well the above means I am wrong and that the govt should just put through a one line amendment to the FTPA which should pass
  • FlannerFlanner Posts: 437

    the PM spokesperson has said if a custom union is attached it changes everything and the PM will stop the deal and call an election

    How is he going to do that without a majority?

    When is the sexpest - and his puppet master - going to get it into his entitled fat head that he's shafted?

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,871
    Scott_P said:
    You really can just add anything in an amendment it seems.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Scott_P said:

    The only way we get to No Deal from here, surely, is if the Benn Act is somehow revoked and that can only happen if Bercow allows a meaningful vote today. It's all in his hands.

    As the ERG blurted out on Live TV, we can still get to No Deal if they pass the WA and then refuse to endorse any FTA. The cliff edge just moves. Again.
    The cliff both shrinks (two extra years of preparation and with customs already approved. Plus there is next to zero chance of it happening given 80% of parliament would vote for an FTA
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,871
    Flanner said:

    the PM spokesperson has said if a custom union is attached it changes everything and the PM will stop the deal and call an election

    How is he going to do that without a majority?

    When is the sexpest - and his puppet master - going to get it into his entitled fat head that he's shafted?

    If a second ref amendment passes.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965
    Off topic: Does anyone know if/when we will get an exit poll from Canada?

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Stocky said:

    isam said: "The vast majority of MPs then stood at a GE promising to implement the result"

    I like a lot of what you say, and the way that you say it. As a brexit neutral (narrow remain vote, almost spoilt my ballot paper) I`ve spent this weekend trying to get to grips with Boris`s deal.

    It has become clear to me that his deal threatens the union in a way that May`s didn`t. But May`s deal didn`t satisfy those that won the referendum because it isn`t really Brexit (I agree).

    The truth has now emerged that we cannot leave the EU to the satisfaction of those that wanted to leave it without threatening the union.

    As my priority is to protect the union, I have changed my mind on a couple of areas:

    1) May`s deal is better than Boris`s
    2) Any deal that threatens the Union (e.g. Boris`s) must be subjected to a confirmatory referendum because of the constitutional implications that it has - which were not part of the 2016 refendum.

    It takes a long deep breath to change your mind, doesn`t it.

    It wouldn't bother me if Scotland went independent and we had a united Ireland, so can't say the Union is my priority.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    timmo said:

    Charles said:

    CatMan said:
    I don't think trade talks will dominate the political agenda / public share of mind nearly as much though
    Its the symbolism of us leaving the EU that matters more to most people
    Not sure about that, because the ERGers, Farage etc will be strident in claiming that any FTA is 'undoing Brexit by the back door'.
    Won’t get traction. It’s only if there is free movement or similar that Farage will be relevant post Brexit
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    timmo said:

    Charles said:

    CatMan said:
    I don't think trade talks will dominate the political agenda / public share of mind nearly as much though
    Its the symbolism of us leaving the EU that matters more to most people
    Not sure about that, because the ERGers, Farage etc will be strident in claiming that any FTA is 'undoing Brexit by the back door'.
    I've not seen ERGers claim a Canada-style FTA is unacceptable, have you?
    In every single case to date they have claimed that something they previously said was their goal is 'not Brexit' after all, so it's certain that they'll do the same this time. In fact they are already gearing up for it, with John Baron already going on about WTO terms after the end of the transition.
    Not Boris's deal they haven't.

    May's deal which gave an end-state that contradicted the campaign was rightly rejected. Boris's deal that aims for a Canada-style FTA has been unanimously accepted. So what's the problem?
    Have you read it? Only two paragraphs were changes and there is nothing whatsoever in there that aims for a “Canada Style FTA”. That’s one of the great meaningless buzz phrases like “Australian Style Points Based System” (when in fact we are going to get an expansion of the very British Points Based System) and “Alternative Arrangements” (which never even existed).

    How anyone seriously believes that an FTA with a culturally distant country 3000 miles away can form the basis for a trade agreement for a culturally virtually identical country that we border, and of which we are basically a departing fellow province, is beyond me.
  • kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    You really can just add anything in an amendment it seems.
    It has to be relevant, so the Speaker might well not accept that one.
  • Sorry, if this has already been covered but are Joanna Cherry and colleagues going back to the Scottish Courts? And if so, when?

    She was back tracking this morning saying Boris had sent the letter

    I believe the Court is sitting about now but the Scottish reporter did not expect anything today
    Obliged. Bit late now, apologies, but glad to see the reports that your and Mrs G enjoyed your trip.Hope we'll be able to get away soon!
    Yes and thank you. It was the most amazing cruise and the weather was fantastic. Stormy seas on the 6 days sailing home but we are very experienced in heavy seas and do not suffer sea sickness

    I hope you enjoy your break as much as we did ours
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Charles said:

    timmo said:

    Charles said:

    CatMan said:
    I don't think trade talks will dominate the political agenda / public share of mind nearly as much though
    Its the symbolism of us leaving the EU that matters more to most people
    Not sure about that, because the ERGers, Farage etc will be strident in claiming that any FTA is 'undoing Brexit by the back door'.
    Won’t get traction. It’s only if there is free movement or similar that Farage will be relevant post Brexit
    I don't think Farage will be relevant in two years. His endorsement of the surrender act and demand to stay in the EU completely humiliated himself.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Cyclefree said:

    Charles said:

    CatMan said:
    I don't think trade talks will dominate the political agenda / public share of mind nearly as much though
    Which will be a very great pity because they will, to a very large extent, determine whether the benefits of Brexit will accrue and to those who most want Brexit.
    It’s unhealthy having such focus on politics.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344
    Gabs2 said:

    Happy Trafalgar Day everyone!

    Whether Leaver pr Remainer, hopefully all Brits can come together to be proud of being British.

    It's also 53 years since the Aberfan tip slid onto the school. 116 children there died, plus 28 adults.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    edited October 2019
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    You really can just add anything in an amendment it seems.
    In normal circumstances, the Speaker is supposed to reject anything that's wildly offtopic or designed to wreck the original motion.

    In normal circumstances that is, before we had John Bercow as Speaker.
  • Charles said:



    Won’t get traction. It’s only if there is free movement or similar that Farage will be relevant post Brexit

    Wait and see. It's true that it might not be Farage personally (he seems to have been added to the ever-lengthening list of Quislings and nay-sayers), but the message of 'We didn't vote Leave only to find we're signing up to all these EU regulations' will have quite an impact. In any case immigration is not going to go away as an issue.
  • Flanner said:

    the PM spokesperson has said if a custom union is attached it changes everything and the PM will stop the deal and call an election

    How is he going to do that without a majority?

    When is the sexpest - and his puppet master - going to get it into his entitled fat head that he's shafted?

    Charming comments and do not underestimate the desire for a GE kicked off by the SNP this morning

    What are you frightened of
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,273

    Off topic: Does anyone know if/when we will get an exit poll from Canada?

    Don't think Canada does exit polls as such, first results should come in by midnight UK time with the last polls in BC closing at 3am our time.

    However given how close it is even by breakfast UK time the result may not yet be certain
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    Stocky said:

    isam said: "The vast majority of MPs then stood at a GE promising to implement the result"

    I like a lot of what you say, and the way that you say it. As a brexit neutral (narrow remain vote, almost spoilt my ballot paper) I`ve spent this weekend trying to get to grips with Boris`s deal.

    It has become clear to me that his deal threatens the union in a way that May`s didn`t. But May`s deal didn`t satisfy those that won the referendum because it isn`t really Brexit (I agree).

    The truth has now emerged that we cannot leave the EU to the satisfaction of those that wanted to leave it without threatening the union.

    As my priority is to protect the union, I have changed my mind on a couple of areas:

    1) May`s deal is better than Boris`s
    2) Any deal that threatens the Union (e.g. Boris`s) must be subjected to a confirmatory referendum because of the constitutional implications that it has - which were not part of the 2016 refendum.

    It takes a long deep breath to change your mind, doesn`t it.

    Interesting and acute analysis.

    I suppose we can put the fact that the Union will be less robust after Boris' deal into the Brexit Fatigue drawer.

    I have to say that Boris blindsided me - I didn't think he would so casually imperil the Union and not because of the DUP but because he is a member of the Conservative and Unionist Party amongst other reasons.

    The other thing which has blindsided me is the easy dismissal by many on here of the fact that our Prime Minister is expected to lie to obtain his political ends and is applauded for doing so after the fact.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077
    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    You really can just add anything in an amendment it seems.
    In normal circumstances, the Speaker is supposed to reject anything that's wildly offtopic or designed to wreck the original motion.

    In normal circumstances that is, before we had John Bercow as Speaker.
    The SNP want an election - Bercow disallowing the amendment is probably what they are aiming for.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,892
    It'd be hilarious if the Gov't adopted the SNP motion - won't happen but clearly the SNP have remembered what their purpose is for.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    DavidL said:

    Sterling actually up today. Market consensus that despite all the pratfalls Boris is finally getting somewhere?

    It can be lost in the fog of possibilities after Letwin passed but IMO the momentum behind this Deal will see it passed this side of Christmas and without the need for a preceding GE.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,273
    TOPPING said:

    Stocky said:

    isam said: "The vast majority of MPs then stood at a GE promising to implement the result"

    I like a lot of what you say, and the way that you say it. As a brexit neutral (narrow remain vote, almost spoilt my ballot paper) I`ve spent this weekend trying to get to grips with Boris`s deal.

    It has become clear to me that his deal threatens the union in a way that May`s didn`t. But May`s deal didn`t satisfy those that won the referendum because it isn`t really Brexit (I agree).

    The truth has now emerged that we cannot leave the EU to the satisfaction of those that wanted to leave it without threatening the union.

    As my priority is to protect the union, I have changed my mind on a couple of areas:

    1) May`s deal is better than Boris`s
    2) Any deal that threatens the Union (e.g. Boris`s) must be subjected to a confirmatory referendum because of the constitutional implications that it has - which were not part of the 2016 refendum.

    It takes a long deep breath to change your mind, doesn`t it.

    Interesting and acute analysis.

    I suppose we can put the fact that the Union will be less robust after Boris' deal into the Brexit Fatigue drawer.

    I have to say that Boris blindsided me - I didn't think he would so casually imperil the Union and not because of the DUP but because he is a member of the Conservative and Unionist Party amongst other reasons.

    The other thing which has blindsided me is the easy dismissal by many on here of the fact that our Prime Minister is expected to lie to obtain his political ends and is applauded for doing so after the fact.
    What would have imperilled the Union would have been No Deal and a hard border in Ireland, the Boris Deal is the only way to avoid No Deal and take GB out of the EU, the single market and the customs union
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077
    Gabs2 said:

    Happy Trafalgar Day everyone!

    Whether Leaver pr Remainer, hopefully all Brits can come together to be proud of being British.

    Why by celebrating something that occurred 200 years ago when the world was a very different place.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    edited October 2019
    HYUFD said:

    Off topic: Does anyone know if/when we will get an exit poll from Canada?

    Don't think Canada does exit polls as such, first results should come in by midnight UK time with the last polls in BC closing at 3am our time.

    However given how close it is even by breakfast UK time the result may not yet be certain
    Results page will be on https://www.cbc.ca/news (Canada's BBC) as the polls close and counting starts.

    For UK time zones it's going to be an early morning rather than a late night.
  • TOPPING said:

    Stocky said:

    isam said: "The vast majority of MPs then stood at a GE promising to implement the result"

    I like a lot of what you say, and the way that you say it. As a brexit neutral (narrow remain vote, almost spoilt my ballot paper) I`ve spent this weekend trying to get to grips with Boris`s deal.

    It has become clear to me that his deal threatens the union in a way that May`s didn`t. But May`s deal didn`t satisfy those that won the referendum because it isn`t really Brexit (I agree).

    The truth has now emerged that we cannot leave the EU to the satisfaction of those that wanted to leave it without threatening the union.

    As my priority is to protect the union, I have changed my mind on a couple of areas:

    1) May`s deal is better than Boris`s
    2) Any deal that threatens the Union (e.g. Boris`s) must be subjected to a confirmatory referendum because of the constitutional implications that it has - which were not part of the 2016 refendum.

    It takes a long deep breath to change your mind, doesn`t it.

    Interesting and acute analysis.

    I suppose we can put the fact that the Union will be less robust after Boris' deal into the Brexit Fatigue drawer.

    I have to say that Boris blindsided me - I didn't think he would so casually imperil the Union and not because of the DUP but because he is a member of the Conservative and Unionist Party amongst other reasons.

    The other thing which has blindsided me is the easy dismissal by many on here of the fact that our Prime Minister is expected to lie to obtain his political ends and is applauded for doing so after the fact.
    Don't you mean "dead-angled" instead of that ableist term you used? ;)
  • HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    Stocky said:

    isam said: "The vast majority of MPs then stood at a GE promising to implement the result"

    I like a lot of what you say, and the way that you say it. As a brexit neutral (narrow remain vote, almost spoilt my ballot paper) I`ve spent this weekend trying to get to grips with Boris`s deal.

    It has become clear to me that his deal threatens the union in a way that May`s didn`t. But May`s deal didn`t satisfy those that won the referendum because it isn`t really Brexit (I agree).

    The truth has now emerged that we cannot leave the EU to the satisfaction of those that wanted to leave it without threatening the union.

    As my priority is to protect the union, I have changed my mind on a couple of areas:

    1) May`s deal is better than Boris`s
    2) Any deal that threatens the Union (e.g. Boris`s) must be subjected to a confirmatory referendum because of the constitutional implications that it has - which were not part of the 2016 refendum.

    It takes a long deep breath to change your mind, doesn`t it.

    Interesting and acute analysis.

    I suppose we can put the fact that the Union will be less robust after Boris' deal into the Brexit Fatigue drawer.

    I have to say that Boris blindsided me - I didn't think he would so casually imperil the Union and not because of the DUP but because he is a member of the Conservative and Unionist Party amongst other reasons.

    The other thing which has blindsided me is the easy dismissal by many on here of the fact that our Prime Minister is expected to lie to obtain his political ends and is applauded for doing so after the fact.
    What would have imperilled the Union would have been No Deal and a hard border in Ireland, the Boris Deal is the only way to avoid No Deal and take GB out of the EU, the single market and the customs union
    Good to agree with you
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,892
    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Sterling actually up today. Market consensus that despite all the pratfalls Boris is finally getting somewhere?

    It can be lost in the fog of possibilities after Letwin passed but IMO the momentum behind this Deal will see it passed this side of Christmas and without the need for a preceding GE.
    The Tories are now (for GE purposes anyway) united too - big change from May.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    timmo said:
    It means that the Scottish courts don't trust Boris Johnson to finish the job in accordance with his legal duties.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Northstar said:
    Isn't that going to be the default decision of everyone in the "yes but..." category?
  • Northstar said:
    That is big news and looks like labour mps are coming to their senses at last
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Pulpstar said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Sterling actually up today. Market consensus that despite all the pratfalls Boris is finally getting somewhere?

    It can be lost in the fog of possibilities after Letwin passed but IMO the momentum behind this Deal will see it passed this side of Christmas and without the need for a preceding GE.
    The Tories are now (for GE purposes anyway) united too - big change from May.
    Polling (albeit on low sub samples) also showed 60-70% of Brexit supporters backing it. Boris had shot Farage's fox.
  • eek said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Happy Trafalgar Day everyone!

    Whether Leaver pr Remainer, hopefully all Brits can come together to be proud of being British.

    Why by celebrating something that occurred 200 years ago when the world was a very different place.
    We still ought to toast the immortal memory of the Duke of Bronte (the first one, not the latest who sounds like a friend of @Charles)
  • nunuonenunuone Posts: 1,138
    Gabs2 said:

    Happy Trafalgar Day everyone!

    Whether Leaver pr Remainer, hopefully all Brits can come together to be proud of being British.

    Most Remainers see waving a union Jack as far right.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    eek said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Happy Trafalgar Day everyone!

    Whether Leaver pr Remainer, hopefully all Brits can come together to be proud of being British.

    Why by celebrating something that occurred 200 years ago when the world was a very different place.
    Because we stood up for freedom vs the overweening arrogance of a single Europe?
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    eek said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Happy Trafalgar Day everyone!

    Whether Leaver pr Remainer, hopefully all Brits can come together to be proud of being British.

    Why by celebrating something that occurred 200 years ago when the world was a very different place.
    Are you suggesting America shouldn't celebrate the 4th of July or France shouldn't celebrate Bastille Day?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    eek said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Happy Trafalgar Day everyone!

    Whether Leaver pr Remainer, hopefully all Brits can come together to be proud of being British.

    Why by celebrating something that occurred 200 years ago when the world was a very different place.
    Not very different at all! Then as now, Britain was fighting for its freedom against a European Superstate.

    [NB This is satire.]
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,892
    Northstar said:
    She's 40.0 on Betfair for next Labour leader. Should be 400.0 or some such after saying she'll back Johnson. In effect she's declaring herself a non runner here.
  • NorthstarNorthstar Posts: 140

    Northstar said:
    Isn't that going to be the default decision of everyone in the "yes but..." category?
    True - but it’s all about baby steps (in either direction) at this point.

    If the deal finally gets any kind of parliamentary endorsement it feels that would push things forward even when other hurdles appear.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,273

    Poor HYUFD, a stranger in his own party. I'm sure like other PB Tories he'll make an accommodation with the new order though.

    https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/1186176541908062208?s=20

    Far from it, I fully support the Tory position of delivering Brexit with the Boris Deal and blocking indyref2. There is thus no forced choice.

    Even though I am not yet ready to follow the Spanish government position and arrest Sturgeon for sedition
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    eek said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Happy Trafalgar Day everyone!

    Whether Leaver pr Remainer, hopefully all Brits can come together to be proud of being British.

    Why by celebrating something that occurred 200 years ago when the world was a very different place.
    If an event is important enough we should mark it for longer than 200 years. I hope I will live to see the one millennium anniversary of the Battle of Hastings. and some people thought it was worth making this celebration: https://magnacarta800th.com/
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    Gabs2 said:

    Happy Trafalgar Day everyone!

    Whether Leaver pr Remainer, hopefully all Brits can come together to be proud of being British.

    :D how about no
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    Northstar said:
    She's probably having a mouthful of grief off her constitutents. I know our Labour MP has been shouted at by angry, ordinary voters... I also saw on Twitter yesterday that a Lab member (and Remainer) working in a northern constituency reluctantly posted that people were unhappy that this is dragging on and that it was taking its toll on the Labour MP.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,892

    Northstar said:
    Isn't that going to be the default decision of everyone in the "yes but..." category?
    Even so surely she's ruling herself as being next Labour leader here :) ?
This discussion has been closed.