Also several mps who said they support a customs union have said they will not now
With the DUP against a customs union and others it does look as if the custom union amendment is unlilely to pass
Furthermore in the Downing Street briefing this morning the PM spokesperson has said if a custom union is attached it changes everything and the PM will stop the deal and call an election
How many more times do some of us on here have to explain he cant just call a GE.. The FTPA means he needs a 2/3rd majority in the HoC. He could of course resign but wont do that either so in effect he is trapped. People please wake up to this.
But he can by a one line amendment to the FTPA and a simple majority
The not sending a letter thing is honestly the biggest load of guff. I get a feeling there are actually quite a lot of people disappointed that he DID send the letter
The people who should be disappointed are the ones who believed him when he said he wouldn't
Taking people for fools his entire life
It was a negotiating strategy.
Parliament attempted to hamstring that approach.
It resulted in a deal despite their best efforts.
It's funny how opponents of Leave/Boris don't get this. Repeatedly saying we were leaving by Oct 31 has got us a deal that will pass (if they let anyone vote on it). Who cares if its in November or December?
If someone values a house at 500k and bids 400k for it, they haven't mugged themselves off if they end up buying it for 475k eventually. The joke is on the people who wanted to buy it, but are laughing at him for paying the sale price, whilst they sit in a house they don't like.
It worked (possibly) in conjunction with the Benn Act by the mechanism of Boris boxing himself in so much that he was compelled to drop his entire set of objections to the existing deal except for going back to the EU's previous offer of a special arrangement for NI, which was always available (in fact, preferred by the EU). A curious sort of victory.
The point is that many, I would say most, Leavers dont care! They just want what they voted for, us to Leave, done, and if that gets done, the details that Remainers obsess over to gain small wins for their ego's, don't matter.
I don't think trade talks will dominate the political agenda / public share of mind nearly as much though
No they won't. "Brexit" will drag on as a big factor in our politics but this febrile culture war is about the existential question of whether we really do leave the EU or not. Once we have left that debate will be over and most of the heat will IMO dissipate. Or. more pessimistically, will attach itself to other issues.
I don't think trade talks will dominate the political agenda / public share of mind nearly as much though
Its the symbolism of us leaving the EU that matters more to most people
The effectiveness (or otherwise) of the points-based immigration controls will be much more to the front of public perceptuion on whether Brexit is working.
I can tell you now that the points based system is going to collapse unless it is reformed from its current mess a lot more money Is put into recruiting officers at UKVI that actually understand it.
The not sending a letter thing is honestly the biggest load of guff. I get a feeling there are actually quite a lot of people disappointed that he DID send the letter
The people who should be disappointed are the ones who believed him when he said he wouldn't
Taking people for fools his entire life
It was a negotiating strategy.
Parliament attempted to hamstring that approach.
It resulted in a deal despite their best efforts.
It's funny how opponents of Leave/Boris don't get this. Repeatedly saying we were leaving by Oct 31 has got us a deal that will pass (if they let anyone vote on it). Who cares if its in November or December?
If someone values a house at 500k and bids 400k for it, they haven't mugged themselves off if they end up buying it for 475k eventually. The joke is on the people who wanted to buy it, but are laughing at him for paying the sale price, whilst they sit in a house they don't like.
It worked (possibly) in conjunction with the Benn Act by the mechanism of Boris boxing himself in so much that he was compelled to drop his entire set of objections to the existing deal except for going back to the EU's previous offer of a special arrangement for NI, which was always available (in fact, preferred by the EU). A curious sort of victory.
Yes, Boris merely went back to the EU and got the crap, earlier version that Theresa wouldn't touch with a barge pole. Whoop-i-doo!
Also several mps who said they support a customs union have said they will not now
With the DUP against a customs union and others it does look as if the custom union amendment is unlilely to pass
Furthermore in the Downing Street briefing this morning the PM spokesperson has said if a custom union is attached it changes everything and the PM will stop the deal and call an election
How many more times do some of us on here have to explain he cant just call a GE.. The FTPA means he needs a 2/3rd majority in the HoC. He could of course resign but wont do that either so in effect he is trapped. People please wake up to this.
But he can by a one line amendment to the FTPA and a simple majority
I don't think trade talks will dominate the political agenda / public share of mind nearly as much though
Which will be a very great pity because they will, to a very large extent, determine whether the benefits of Brexit will accrue and to those who most want Brexit.
Can't see Bercow sticking around, those seeking to succeed him wouldn't be best pleased. I'm quite surprised he has decided to stand down in the first place, he could have easily dug his heels in but it's too late for him to turn the clock back now.
He was worried there might be an election, and wanted this Parliament to vote on his successor, rather than the next one.
Everyone is being blindsided by the 31st October deadline. What is absolutely clear is that there is a majority in the Commons to pass the WA. Given that - and given the DUP opposition to a customs union - the WA is going to pass. No wrecking amendments are going to be voted through. If it takes a week or so into November for that to happen, what does it matter?
Let's see what happens.
So far the establishment elite have blocked Brexit at every turn. I'll believe it when I see it.
We voted to Leave
The vast majority of MPs then stood at a GE promising to implement the result
Those MPs demanded a vote on the deal, and voted NO three times.
Now a deal is likely to pass
The MPs vote to not have a vote
And people have convinced themselves it isn't a stitch up. Lord have mercy
Now that No Deal is off the table, there is absolutely no reason not to vote the Johnson deal through. And it will go through. The diehard Remainers have run out of options. But the WA does also need to be scrutinised. It is a very big deal and not something that can just be waved through. If that means leaving at the end of November instead of October are you really that bothered?
No but Johnson is. And he will look to any means to rush the WAB through with a possible threat of No Deal which is enhanced by a yes vote to the MV today.
Two problems with that. Inadequate scrutiny of the WAB and a small chance of an accidental No Deal in this bluffing game.
The only way we get to No Deal from here, surely, is if the Benn Act is somehow revoked and that can only happen if Bercow allows a meaningful vote today. It's all in his hands.
I don't think trade talks will dominate the political agenda / public share of mind nearly as much though
Its the symbolism of us leaving the EU that matters more to most people
Not sure about that, because the ERGers, Farage etc will be strident in claiming that any FTA is 'undoing Brexit by the back door'.
I've not seen ERGers claim a Canada-style FTA is unacceptable, have you?
In every single case to date they have claimed that something they previously said was their goal is 'not Brexit' after all, so it's certain that they'll do the same this time. In fact they are already gearing up for it, with John Baron already going on about WTO terms after the end of the transition.
The only way we get to No Deal from here, surely, is if the Benn Act is somehow revoked and that can only happen if Bercow allows a meaningful vote today. It's all in his hands.
As the ERG blurted out on Live TV, we can still get to No Deal if they pass the WA and then refuse to endorse any FTA. The cliff edge just moves. Again.
Also several mps who said they support a customs union have said they will not now
With the DUP against a customs union and others it does look as if the custom union amendment is unlilely to pass
Furthermore in the Downing Street briefing this morning the PM spokesperson has said if a custom union is attached it changes everything and the PM will stop the deal and call an election
How many more times do some of us on here have to explain he cant just call a GE.. The FTPA means he needs a 2/3rd majority in the HoC. He could of course resign but wont do that either so in effect he is trapped. People please wake up to this.
But he can by a one line amendment to the FTPA and a simple majority
And how is he going to get that exactly?
Tables the one line amendment
But he wont get it through..the SNP wont fall for it
I don't think trade talks will dominate the political agenda / public share of mind nearly as much though
Its the symbolism of us leaving the EU that matters more to most people
Not sure about that, because the ERGers, Farage etc will be strident in claiming that any FTA is 'undoing Brexit by the back door'.
I've not seen ERGers claim a Canada-style FTA is unacceptable, have you?
In every single case to date they have claimed that something they previously said was their goal is 'not Brexit' after all, so it's certain that they'll do the same this time. In fact they are already gearing up for it, with John Baron already going on about WTO terms after the end of the transition.
Not Boris's deal they haven't.
May's deal which gave an end-state that contradicted the campaign was rightly rejected. Boris's deal that aims for a Canada-style FTA has been unanimously accepted. So what's the problem?
The not sending a letter thing is honestly the biggest load of guff. I get a feeling there are actually quite a lot of people disappointed that he DID send the letter
The people who should be disappointed are the ones who believed him when he said he wouldn't
Taking people for fools his entire life
It was a negotiating strategy.
Parliament attempted to hamstring that approach.
It resulted in a deal despite their best efforts.
It's funny how opponents of Leave/Boris don't get this. Repeatedly saying we were leaving by Oct 31 has got us a deal that will pass (if they let anyone vote on it). Who cares if its in November or December?
If someone values a house at 500k and bids 400k for it, they haven't mugged themselves off if they end up buying it for 475k eventually. The joke is on the people who wanted to buy it, but are laughing at him for paying the sale price, whilst they sit in a house they don't like.
It worked (possibly) in conjunction with the Benn Act by the mechanism of Boris boxing himself in so much that he was compelled to drop his entire set of objections to the existing deal except for going back to the EU's previous offer of a special arrangement for NI, which was always available (in fact, preferred by the EU). A curious sort of victory.
Yes, Boris merely went back to the EU and got the crap, earlier version that Theresa wouldn't touch with a barge pole. Whoop-i-doo!
Any deal is better than no deal, though. It means that we do not drag others down with us if Brexit turns out not to be the sunlit uplands we have all been told to expect. Giving the Irish what they wanted is something that will always sit in Johnson's credit box as far as I am concerned.
The not sending a letter thing is honestly the biggest load of guff. I get a feeling there are actually quite a lot of people disappointed that he DID send the letter
The people who should be disappointed are the ones who believed him when he said he wouldn't
Taking people for fools his entire life
It was a negotiating strategy.
Parliament attempted to hamstring that approach.
It resulted in a deal despite their best efforts.
It's funny how opponents of Leave/Boris don't get this. Repeatedly saying we were leaving by Oct 31 has got us a deal that will pass (if they let anyone vote on it). Who cares if its in November or December?
If someone values a house at 500k and bids 400k for it, they haven't mugged themselves off if they end up buying it for 475k eventually. The joke is on the people who wanted to buy it, but are laughing at him for paying the sale price, whilst they sit in a house they don't like.
It worked (possibly) in conjunction with the Benn Act by the mechanism of Boris boxing himself in so much that he was compelled to drop his entire set of objections to the existing deal except for going back to the EU's previous offer of a special arrangement for NI, which was always available (in fact, preferred by the EU). A curious sort of victory.
The point is that many, I would say most, Leavers dont care! They just want what they voted for, us to Leave, done, and if that gets done, the details that Remainers obsess over to gain small wins for their ego's, don't matter.
But surely they voted to Leave to get the benefits of a Leave vote? If those benefits don’t happen won’t that bother them?
Also several mps who said they support a customs union have said they will not now
With the DUP against a customs union and others it does look as if the custom union amendment is unlilely to pass
Furthermore in the Downing Street briefing this morning the PM spokesperson has said if a custom union is attached it changes everything and the PM will stop the deal and call an election
How many more times do some of us on here have to explain he cant just call a GE.. The FTPA means he needs a 2/3rd majority in the HoC. He could of course resign but wont do that either so in effect he is trapped. People please wake up to this.
But he can by a one line amendment to the FTPA and a simple majority
Anything amending the FTPA would need to go through the Lords as well - and dare we say it, cause other unintended consequences. It could also be amended in either House.
Better would be a one-line Election 2019 Bill, stating that notwithstanding the FTPA, Parliament will be dissolved on Date X for a General Election on Date Y. Would also need to go through both Houses though.
At least with Mays deal there would have been time for a short pause to draw breath between the exit date and the next negotiations. Even if we leave in ten days the arguments about the future relationship will need to start pretty much immediately, and on that the tory party is still very split.
It doesn't matter though, does it? Isn't it the case that once we Brexit the FTA is in the hands of the government and does not need Parliamentary approval? That's why I cannot see a No Deal happening at the end of next year - especially if the UK really does want Canada minus minus. That should be pretty easy to negotiate now that the Irish border issue has been sorted, if (and I guess it could be a big if) the UK understands what the consequences of that will be for access to the single market.
There is likely to be an amendment to the WAB that places final approval of any FTA with parliament. I think that is likely to pass. IIRC Johnson has already promised that. This would place it in law rather than in BJ's slippery mind.
May's deal which gave an end-state that contradicted the campaign was rightly rejected. Boris's deal that aims for a Canada-style FTA has been unanimously accepted. So what's the problem?
Let's have the conversation when the draft FTA is published in a year or so. I am pretty damned sure I'll be right. They claim to want a Canada-style deal but they actually want no deal at all, certainly no deal which the EU would accept.
Also several mps who said they support a customs union have said they will not now
With the DUP against a customs union and others it does look as if the custom union amendment is unlilely to pass
Furthermore in the Downing Street briefing this morning the PM spokesperson has said if a custom union is attached it changes everything and the PM will stop the deal and call an election
How many more times do some of us on here have to explain he cant just call a GE.. The FTPA means he needs a 2/3rd majority in the HoC. He could of course resign but wont do that either so in effect he is trapped. People please wake up to this.
But he can by a one line amendment to the FTPA and a simple majority
Anything amending the FTPA would need to go through the Lords as well - and dare we say it, cause other unintended consequences. It could also be amended in either House.
Better would be a one-line Election 2019 Bill, stating that notwithstanding the FTPA, Parliament will be dissolved on Date X for a General Election on Date Y. Would also need to go through both Houses though.
The not sending a letter thing is honestly the biggest load of guff. I get a feeling there are actually quite a lot of people disappointed that he DID send the letter
The people who should be disappointed are the ones who believed him when he said he wouldn't
Taking people for fools his entire life
It was a negotiating strategy.
Parliament attempted to hamstring that approach.
It resulted in a deal despite their best efforts.
It's funny how opponents of Leave/Boris don't get this. Repeatedly saying we were leaving by Oct 31 has got us a deal that will pass (if they let anyone vote on it). Who cares if its in November or December?
If someone values a house at 500k and bids 400k for it, they haven't mugged themselves off if they end up buying it for 475k eventually. The joke is on the people who wanted to buy it, but are laughing at him for paying the sale price, whilst they sit in a house they don't like.
It worked (possibly) in conjunction with the Benn Act by the mechanism of Boris boxing himself in so much that he was compelled to drop his entire set of objections to the existing deal except for going back to the EU's previous offer of a special arrangement for NI, which was always available (in fact, preferred by the EU). A curious sort of victory.
The point is that many, I would say most, Leavers dont care! They just want what they voted for, us to Leave, done, and if that gets done, the details that Remainers obsess over to gain small wins for their ego's, don't matter.
But surely they voted to Leave to get the benefits of a Leave vote? If those benefits don’t happen won’t that bother them?
And if it won’t why not have a BINO then?
Because we are in the absurd situation where, nearly three and a half years after Leave won the referendum, MPs (who we were told would NOT have the final say), are refusing to pass a withdrawal agreement, and still hankering for Remain a la that old BBC show "Life without George"
The gov wants an election but having sunk so much into getting the deal it defies sense to think getting that done first is not the priority .
That is true if you (or rather, HMG) expects Brexit to lead quickly and directly to the sunlit uplands. If HMG thinks Brexit will lead to a lot of short-term pain for voters, then it should hold the election first.
The trouble is, because unicorn Brexit is popular, Boris needs to be seen to be forced into the delaying Brexit past the election.
I could be wrong but it seems rational and more importantly, makes Boris seem rational.
If everyone but Labour is in favour of an election, the numbers are pretty close. Remember 434 positive votes required under FTPA unless they go down the one-line Bill route.
The only way we get to No Deal from here, surely, is if the Benn Act is somehow revoked and that can only happen if Bercow allows a meaningful vote today. It's all in his hands.
As the ERG blurted out on Live TV, we can still get to No Deal if they pass the WA and then refuse to endorse any FTA. The cliff edge just moves. Again.
Given that the Irish border issue has bene resolved, it is hard to see how we get a No Deal at the end of next year as we have lost the small leverage we had. No deal now undoubtedly harms the UK a whole lot more than every EU member state. What's more, the deal that the Johnson government is after seems to be Canada minus minus. That should be pretty easy for the EU to agree. But I guess you're right: it is a possibility.
As I said SNP want an election before end of January... This won't pass but I guess they're sending a signal to Boris that they're willing to play now he's sent the surrender letter.
If everyone but Labour is in favour of an election, the numbers are pretty close. Remember 434 positive votes required under FTPA unless they go down the one-line Bill route.
Well the above means I am wrong and that the govt should just put through a one line amendment to the FTPA which should pass
The only way we get to No Deal from here, surely, is if the Benn Act is somehow revoked and that can only happen if Bercow allows a meaningful vote today. It's all in his hands.
As the ERG blurted out on Live TV, we can still get to No Deal if they pass the WA and then refuse to endorse any FTA. The cliff edge just moves. Again.
The cliff both shrinks (two extra years of preparation and with customs already approved. Plus there is next to zero chance of it happening given 80% of parliament would vote for an FTA
isam said: "The vast majority of MPs then stood at a GE promising to implement the result"
I like a lot of what you say, and the way that you say it. As a brexit neutral (narrow remain vote, almost spoilt my ballot paper) I`ve spent this weekend trying to get to grips with Boris`s deal.
It has become clear to me that his deal threatens the union in a way that May`s didn`t. But May`s deal didn`t satisfy those that won the referendum because it isn`t really Brexit (I agree).
The truth has now emerged that we cannot leave the EU to the satisfaction of those that wanted to leave it without threatening the union.
As my priority is to protect the union, I have changed my mind on a couple of areas:
1) May`s deal is better than Boris`s 2) Any deal that threatens the Union (e.g. Boris`s) must be subjected to a confirmatory referendum because of the constitutional implications that it has - which were not part of the 2016 refendum.
It takes a long deep breath to change your mind, doesn`t it.
It wouldn't bother me if Scotland went independent and we had a united Ireland, so can't say the Union is my priority.
I don't think trade talks will dominate the political agenda / public share of mind nearly as much though
Its the symbolism of us leaving the EU that matters more to most people
Not sure about that, because the ERGers, Farage etc will be strident in claiming that any FTA is 'undoing Brexit by the back door'.
I've not seen ERGers claim a Canada-style FTA is unacceptable, have you?
In every single case to date they have claimed that something they previously said was their goal is 'not Brexit' after all, so it's certain that they'll do the same this time. In fact they are already gearing up for it, with John Baron already going on about WTO terms after the end of the transition.
Not Boris's deal they haven't.
May's deal which gave an end-state that contradicted the campaign was rightly rejected. Boris's deal that aims for a Canada-style FTA has been unanimously accepted. So what's the problem?
Have you read it? Only two paragraphs were changes and there is nothing whatsoever in there that aims for a “Canada Style FTA”. That’s one of the great meaningless buzz phrases like “Australian Style Points Based System” (when in fact we are going to get an expansion of the very British Points Based System) and “Alternative Arrangements” (which never even existed).
How anyone seriously believes that an FTA with a culturally distant country 3000 miles away can form the basis for a trade agreement for a culturally virtually identical country that we border, and of which we are basically a departing fellow province, is beyond me.
Sorry, if this has already been covered but are Joanna Cherry and colleagues going back to the Scottish Courts? And if so, when?
She was back tracking this morning saying Boris had sent the letter
I believe the Court is sitting about now but the Scottish reporter did not expect anything today
Obliged. Bit late now, apologies, but glad to see the reports that your and Mrs G enjoyed your trip.Hope we'll be able to get away soon!
Yes and thank you. It was the most amazing cruise and the weather was fantastic. Stormy seas on the 6 days sailing home but we are very experienced in heavy seas and do not suffer sea sickness
I hope you enjoy your break as much as we did ours
I don't think trade talks will dominate the political agenda / public share of mind nearly as much though
Which will be a very great pity because they will, to a very large extent, determine whether the benefits of Brexit will accrue and to those who most want Brexit.
Won’t get traction. It’s only if there is free movement or similar that Farage will be relevant post Brexit
Wait and see. It's true that it might not be Farage personally (he seems to have been added to the ever-lengthening list of Quislings and nay-sayers), but the message of 'We didn't vote Leave only to find we're signing up to all these EU regulations' will have quite an impact. In any case immigration is not going to go away as an issue.
isam said: "The vast majority of MPs then stood at a GE promising to implement the result"
I like a lot of what you say, and the way that you say it. As a brexit neutral (narrow remain vote, almost spoilt my ballot paper) I`ve spent this weekend trying to get to grips with Boris`s deal.
It has become clear to me that his deal threatens the union in a way that May`s didn`t. But May`s deal didn`t satisfy those that won the referendum because it isn`t really Brexit (I agree).
The truth has now emerged that we cannot leave the EU to the satisfaction of those that wanted to leave it without threatening the union.
As my priority is to protect the union, I have changed my mind on a couple of areas:
1) May`s deal is better than Boris`s 2) Any deal that threatens the Union (e.g. Boris`s) must be subjected to a confirmatory referendum because of the constitutional implications that it has - which were not part of the 2016 refendum.
It takes a long deep breath to change your mind, doesn`t it.
Interesting and acute analysis.
I suppose we can put the fact that the Union will be less robust after Boris' deal into the Brexit Fatigue drawer.
I have to say that Boris blindsided me - I didn't think he would so casually imperil the Union and not because of the DUP but because he is a member of the Conservative and Unionist Party amongst other reasons.
The other thing which has blindsided me is the easy dismissal by many on here of the fact that our Prime Minister is expected to lie to obtain his political ends and is applauded for doing so after the fact.
Sterling actually up today. Market consensus that despite all the pratfalls Boris is finally getting somewhere?
It can be lost in the fog of possibilities after Letwin passed but IMO the momentum behind this Deal will see it passed this side of Christmas and without the need for a preceding GE.
isam said: "The vast majority of MPs then stood at a GE promising to implement the result"
I like a lot of what you say, and the way that you say it. As a brexit neutral (narrow remain vote, almost spoilt my ballot paper) I`ve spent this weekend trying to get to grips with Boris`s deal.
It has become clear to me that his deal threatens the union in a way that May`s didn`t. But May`s deal didn`t satisfy those that won the referendum because it isn`t really Brexit (I agree).
The truth has now emerged that we cannot leave the EU to the satisfaction of those that wanted to leave it without threatening the union.
As my priority is to protect the union, I have changed my mind on a couple of areas:
1) May`s deal is better than Boris`s 2) Any deal that threatens the Union (e.g. Boris`s) must be subjected to a confirmatory referendum because of the constitutional implications that it has - which were not part of the 2016 refendum.
It takes a long deep breath to change your mind, doesn`t it.
Interesting and acute analysis.
I suppose we can put the fact that the Union will be less robust after Boris' deal into the Brexit Fatigue drawer.
I have to say that Boris blindsided me - I didn't think he would so casually imperil the Union and not because of the DUP but because he is a member of the Conservative and Unionist Party amongst other reasons.
The other thing which has blindsided me is the easy dismissal by many on here of the fact that our Prime Minister is expected to lie to obtain his political ends and is applauded for doing so after the fact.
What would have imperilled the Union would have been No Deal and a hard border in Ireland, the Boris Deal is the only way to avoid No Deal and take GB out of the EU, the single market and the customs union
isam said: "The vast majority of MPs then stood at a GE promising to implement the result"
I like a lot of what you say, and the way that you say it. As a brexit neutral (narrow remain vote, almost spoilt my ballot paper) I`ve spent this weekend trying to get to grips with Boris`s deal.
It has become clear to me that his deal threatens the union in a way that May`s didn`t. But May`s deal didn`t satisfy those that won the referendum because it isn`t really Brexit (I agree).
The truth has now emerged that we cannot leave the EU to the satisfaction of those that wanted to leave it without threatening the union.
As my priority is to protect the union, I have changed my mind on a couple of areas:
1) May`s deal is better than Boris`s 2) Any deal that threatens the Union (e.g. Boris`s) must be subjected to a confirmatory referendum because of the constitutional implications that it has - which were not part of the 2016 refendum.
It takes a long deep breath to change your mind, doesn`t it.
Interesting and acute analysis.
I suppose we can put the fact that the Union will be less robust after Boris' deal into the Brexit Fatigue drawer.
I have to say that Boris blindsided me - I didn't think he would so casually imperil the Union and not because of the DUP but because he is a member of the Conservative and Unionist Party amongst other reasons.
The other thing which has blindsided me is the easy dismissal by many on here of the fact that our Prime Minister is expected to lie to obtain his political ends and is applauded for doing so after the fact.
Don't you mean "dead-angled" instead of that ableist term you used?
isam said: "The vast majority of MPs then stood at a GE promising to implement the result"
I like a lot of what you say, and the way that you say it. As a brexit neutral (narrow remain vote, almost spoilt my ballot paper) I`ve spent this weekend trying to get to grips with Boris`s deal.
It has become clear to me that his deal threatens the union in a way that May`s didn`t. But May`s deal didn`t satisfy those that won the referendum because it isn`t really Brexit (I agree).
The truth has now emerged that we cannot leave the EU to the satisfaction of those that wanted to leave it without threatening the union.
As my priority is to protect the union, I have changed my mind on a couple of areas:
1) May`s deal is better than Boris`s 2) Any deal that threatens the Union (e.g. Boris`s) must be subjected to a confirmatory referendum because of the constitutional implications that it has - which were not part of the 2016 refendum.
It takes a long deep breath to change your mind, doesn`t it.
Interesting and acute analysis.
I suppose we can put the fact that the Union will be less robust after Boris' deal into the Brexit Fatigue drawer.
I have to say that Boris blindsided me - I didn't think he would so casually imperil the Union and not because of the DUP but because he is a member of the Conservative and Unionist Party amongst other reasons.
The other thing which has blindsided me is the easy dismissal by many on here of the fact that our Prime Minister is expected to lie to obtain his political ends and is applauded for doing so after the fact.
What would have imperilled the Union would have been No Deal and a hard border in Ireland, the Boris Deal is the only way to avoid No Deal and take GB out of the EU, the single market and the customs union
Sterling actually up today. Market consensus that despite all the pratfalls Boris is finally getting somewhere?
It can be lost in the fog of possibilities after Letwin passed but IMO the momentum behind this Deal will see it passed this side of Christmas and without the need for a preceding GE.
The Tories are now (for GE purposes anyway) united too - big change from May.
Sterling actually up today. Market consensus that despite all the pratfalls Boris is finally getting somewhere?
It can be lost in the fog of possibilities after Letwin passed but IMO the momentum behind this Deal will see it passed this side of Christmas and without the need for a preceding GE.
The Tories are now (for GE purposes anyway) united too - big change from May.
Polling (albeit on low sub samples) also showed 60-70% of Brexit supporters backing it. Boris had shot Farage's fox.
She's 40.0 on Betfair for next Labour leader. Should be 400.0 or some such after saying she'll back Johnson. In effect she's declaring herself a non runner here.
Whether Leaver pr Remainer, hopefully all Brits can come together to be proud of being British.
Why by celebrating something that occurred 200 years ago when the world was a very different place.
If an event is important enough we should mark it for longer than 200 years. I hope I will live to see the one millennium anniversary of the Battle of Hastings. and some people thought it was worth making this celebration: https://magnacarta800th.com/
She's probably having a mouthful of grief off her constitutents. I know our Labour MP has been shouted at by angry, ordinary voters... I also saw on Twitter yesterday that a Lab member (and Remainer) working in a northern constituency reluctantly posted that people were unhappy that this is dragging on and that it was taking its toll on the Labour MP.
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They voted to leave in March. There was a straight vote in March on whether to leave or not and they voted to leave.
Its a wrecking amendment. Why would they continue after its been wrecked?
I believe the Court is sitting about now but the Scottish reporter did not expect anything today
Bercow could have real fun doing that and nothing else.
It is surreal
May's deal which gave an end-state that contradicted the campaign was rightly rejected. Boris's deal that aims for a Canada-style FTA has been unanimously accepted. So what's the problem?
And if it won’t why not have a BINO then?
I think Downing Street were hoping for a "victory" in court for Johnson today. Hence the spin.
Better would be a one-line Election 2019 Bill, stating that notwithstanding the FTPA, Parliament will be dissolved on Date X for a General Election on Date Y. Would also need to go through both Houses though.
The trouble is, because unicorn Brexit is popular, Boris needs to be seen to be forced into the delaying Brexit past the election.
I could be wrong but it seems rational and more importantly, makes Boris seem rational.
Whether Leaver pr Remainer, hopefully all Brits can come together to be proud of being British.
I don’t think you will get a majority for the who “tell the executive what to do gambit” for a less important issue than Brexit
When is the sexpest - and his puppet master - going to get it into his entitled fat head that he's shafted?
How anyone seriously believes that an FTA with a culturally distant country 3000 miles away can form the basis for a trade agreement for a culturally virtually identical country that we border, and of which we are basically a departing fellow province, is beyond me.
I hope you enjoy your break as much as we did ours
In normal circumstances that is, before we had John Bercow as Speaker.
What are you frightened of
However given how close it is even by breakfast UK time the result may not yet be certain
I suppose we can put the fact that the Union will be less robust after Boris' deal into the Brexit Fatigue drawer.
I have to say that Boris blindsided me - I didn't think he would so casually imperil the Union and not because of the DUP but because he is a member of the Conservative and Unionist Party amongst other reasons.
The other thing which has blindsided me is the easy dismissal by many on here of the fact that our Prime Minister is expected to lie to obtain his political ends and is applauded for doing so after the fact.
For UK time zones it's going to be an early morning rather than a late night.
Seems significant...
[NB This is satire.]
https://twitter.com/KateEMcCann/status/1186245086801215489?s=20
If the deal finally gets any kind of parliamentary endorsement it feels that would push things forward even when other hurdles appear.
Even though I am not yet ready to follow the Spanish government position and arrest Sturgeon for sedition