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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Some brighter polling news for the Tories – today’s YouGov
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Some brighter polling news for the Tories – today’s YouGov has the LAB lead down to just 4pc
Like all such moves we have to be careful before jumping to conclusions. It might just be a blip or it could be a first indicator that the better economic news is beginning to resonate. Dave Cameron and his team will surely be hoping for the latter.
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Also blame Falkirk for the fact that it is raining and I have been struggling to get on the site.
I blame in this order:
Falkirk
The BBC
The Guardian
Red Ed
Are the Lib Dems losing more voters to UKIP and the Conservatives than normal?
The Conservative retention figure is not far off Labour's 78% compared to 84%. Is that unusual?
On a slightly less positive note for the tories the lead is still moving around much more on their own performance rather than Labour's. Although this poll has Labour out of the 40s their vote remains much more stable than the tory vote.
Still much to do methinks.
Do you think what happened at Falkirk and Grangemouth was right?
Whatever, I'd be inclined to see this as a blip (won't say rogue - it's not more than 3% out of recent line each way), unless further evidence comes in reinforcing this VI split, as I just don't see the reason for a sudden move to the Tories, wherever it came from.
Off-topic, hope all those at DD's enjoy themselves this evening. Unfortunately, I can't make it this time but look forward to the Yorkshire do next year.
The Scotsman - Brian Wilson: Scots tradition of dissent in peril
"People in Scotland must be able to speak freely in the coming months without fear of retribution, writes Brian Wilson
THE Chris Whatley affair is, at one level, just another spat along the long road to the referendum. At another, it tells us a great deal that is disturbing about how public life in Scotland is now being orchestrated.
The full e-mail sent by Shona Robison MSP to the principal of Dundee University, expressing “dismay” over Professor Whatley’s participation in the city’s Better Together launch, makes unpleasant reading. It leaves little doubt about the intentions of its author – to silence the individual and put the frighteners on his employers."
This story has had a lot of coverage in the Dundee Courier and caused a great deal of concern. The determination of the Scottish Government to control what is said by those in public employ or dependent upon the public purse is alarming.
The hero of this particular spat is the princial of St Andrews who sent an e-mail to all of his staff stating that they were free to say what they wanted and that he would back them to the hilt. At that point Eck's finely tuned political radar was alerted and the SNP backed off in the way described. I hope the Principal of Dundee University is suitably embarrassed that it was the principal of another University that stood up for a member of his staff having the audacity to have an opinion.
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/llzm2zbm0v/YG-Archives-Pol-Trackers-Voting-Trends-with-UKIP-191113.pdf
If the latter we'd better say Falkirk, Ed, Impeachment too.
Perhaps a touch of UKIP -> CON swing here also. The headline figures look fine but LD -> Lab internals looks like an outlier to me. Obviously internal subsamples will be outliers frequently.
You repeatedly misread the Plebgate situation. Are you sure you should be accusing others of misreading the situation?
So perhaps you can answer the question about Falkirk (although I do not hold out much hope):
Do you think what happened at Falkirk and Grangemouth was right?
Lab 348
Con 259
LD 18
As for Plebgate: you have yet to prove evidence he did withhold it, besides a newspaper article, or even prove the three months you claim repeatedly. It's rather poor to be focussing on invented conspiracy theories over Cameron when the real story lies within the police force.
If you think Cameron should have released the CCTV earlier, then surely you believe Ed should release the Falkirk report? After all, it is internal to the Labour Party, and is his to release?
Totally fascinating article and quotes on Broadband speeds and costs around the world. Am amazed as to why Eastern Europe can be so cheap and fast and N America so expensive and slow - someone must be making a packet.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-24985265
Conservative MP Henry Smith called the police to investigate on the 4th of July. (1)
Ed called them in on the 5th July. (2)
Decisive action there by Ed.
(1): http://order-order.com/2013/07/05/labour-hand-over-falkirk-file-after-tories-report-unite-to-cops/
(2): http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-23192888
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/llzm2zbm0v/YG-Archives-Pol-Trackers-Voting-Trends-with-UKIP-191113.pdf
Hull gets City of Culture -expect comments from the national politicians of one of the losers - Dundee.....
I can see a pattern here, certainly in Scotland.
Tom Watson: over Falkirk.
Alan Johnson: could not hack the job (that was a really great appointment, wasn't it?)
Jim Fitzpatrick: over Syria (hilariously this was unnecessary, as Ed flip-flopped).
David Miliband: because he did not want to be a 'distraction'.
And the best:
Phil Woolas !!! (I normally do not like multiple exclamation marks, but Woolas's appointment was absolutely bizarre).
Unspoofable. ;^ )
Operation Alice started after the leaking of the Police logs and was well underway before Mitchell resigned:
24 September 2012
It has also emerged that the Metropolitan Police is investigating how police records of the incident were obtained by the newspaper.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-19707950
Who could have seen this coming ?
Co op bank bail out could be in doubt ?
I guess they need the boost. Leicester is too famously boring.
Semper Eadem!
First Minister Carwyn Jones is to call on Scottish voters to reject independence and stay in a "strong UK".
Mr Jones will defend the union as a "positive choice" in next year's referendum in a speech in Edinburgh.
He will say on Wednesday he thinks a "lasting devolution settlement" is the better option for Scottish voters.
"While independence is not on the agenda in Wales, we are following the debate in Scotland with interest”
But the SNP said Mr Jones wanted changes to the way devolved governments are funded which would harm Scotland if it voted No in the poll next September.
Mr Jones had warned he could not defend the union while UK ministers' response to the Silk Commission on the devolution of financial powers to Wales was not forthcoming.
But the Treasury responded to the commission's proposals on Monday, announcing Welsh ministers would get tax-varying powers, the full devolution of business rates and early access to borrowing powers.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-25003045
Mind you, a few days earlier a local radio presenter had warned me not to walk through the city from the east, as it would be too dangerous...
Competition for homebuyers with little in savings is picking up, as a building society has unveiled a string of new deals outside the Help to Buy scheme.
The Yorkshire Building Society is offering a host of new mortgage products for people offering a deposit of 5% of a home's value.
Some of the rates are lower than the initial offers from banks signed up to the government's Help to Buy scheme.
The move comes amid warnings of an overheated UK housing market.
The Yorkshire Building Society Group, the second-largest building society in the UK, said it was now offering the widest choice of 95% loan-to-value deals among UK lenders.
The new mortgages are being offered through its Yorkshire, Barnsley, Chelsea, and Norwich and Peterborough Building Society brands, as well as its Accord Mortgages lending arm, which serves brokers.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25003049
@paulwaugh: Ah, Prezza is now out of the traps. RT @johnprescott It's Happy Hour again! #HullYes Well done @2017Hull #CityofCulture2017
As people have shown below, there was already a police investigation ongoing. There was also a media frenzy stoked up by idiots.
If Cameron had released the CCTV, you would be shouting: "Cameron interfered with an investigation! The CCTV's bound to be suspect, as it was released politically!" Your hatred would prevent you from seeing anything Cameron had done as a positive.
You really are a tinfoil-hatted nutjob.
Use the time to educate yourself about the New Homes Bonus.
'Now you really are having a laugh. The following people have resigned from Ed's shadow cabinet outside of reshuffles:'
Not to mention Ed's favorite banker appointed as a member of Labour's finance & industry Board.
The sort of council estates which some people claim are the solution to Britain's housing problems.
However I have little doubt the far from fragrant Flowers will continue to entertain.....we've yet to discover why he left Rochdale.....
Believed to be a ‘trucker’ – how terribly Cliché…!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2510241/Paul-Flowers-escort-Ciaron-Dodd-reveals-drug-fuelled-sex-rooms-paid-Co-op.html
That the police did not ask for the cctv shots covering the area suggests that the investigation was, to be polite, half hearted at that time.
Scum Labour in government gives taxpayers money to scum bankers.
Scum Labour in opposition receives shareholders money from scum bankers.
The Conservatives (and LibDems) should be saying that on every news program.
People like you were saying that anyone who backed Mitchell were automatically calling the police liars. A Police Federation rep sickeningly linked it to the shooting dead of two policewomen.
If Cameron or Mitchell had said more, you would be going around saying they were calling the police liars.
Cameron could not win. You and Roger are about the only people who do not recognise that...
The one big error there is IHT. That doesn't need touching at this moment in time - in fact, it's an area they should look to devolve.
The threshold that most needs lifting is stamp duty on housing - 168k is the average price, so why should an ordinary person wanting to buy an average home be taxed on it? Raise the 0% to £175,000 for starters.
He'd probably do well to raise the VAT exemption threshold too. Let's say £104,000 - a turnover of £2,000 a week. Incentivise small business and self employed start ups.
Time for Balls to do the decent thing and hand the £50k back.
Allister Heath has long been a critic of Coalition economic policy. I'm more than happy to endorse his view on personal allowance increases but what I think would be more significant would be to move the threshhold at which people enter the higher tax rates.
While recognising that in some parts of the country, a £35k annual salary would be worth a lot, for many in the South and around London, it's not that much yet it brings people into higher rate tax. It's time I think for Osborne to recognise this anomaly and raise the higher rate threshhold to £45k. I don't know what the "cost" of that would be in terms of revenue but it would send a powerful message that the Coalition isn't just interested in the very wealthy or even the very poor.
And the Conservatives (and LibDems) should have their most working class MPs lead the abuse.
What is strategically important for them is to destroy the perception that Labour is some sort of working class people's party.
Associating Labour with sleezy bankers (and public sector fatcats for that matter) allows them to do that.
The Labour money came straight out of interest that could have been paid to poor old pensioners who gave the Co op their money - to pay out to Balls and to employ druggie old pervs.
Frankly, I'm still boggling over the Coop non-story. I just hope the Tories aren't as colourful. Labour are giving the LDs a run for their money.
The people he needs to win are the ones earning £25,000 a year - average wage, wanting to buy a house that costs £150-175k - average house price, and who are more concerned about the standard of public services like education and healthcare, than welfare benefits.
The budget needs to be aimed at Mr and Mrs Average - not Mr and Mrs Rich/Top 10-15% or Mr and Mrs Welfare.
Interesting on Oil E&P costs
"Ernest & Young looked closely at costs for the global E&P world as part of the firm’s annual “Global oil and gas reserves study”.
The numbers left little doubt that costs in today’s oil and gas world are weighing on producers like never before. Production costs in 2012 rose 6% globally—driven by higher prices for labor and services.
Now, 6% isn’t a huge amount on its own. But numbers like this start to get worrying when you combine operating costs with other rising expenses for E&Ps—like finding costs, the amount paid by producers to discover and book in-ground oil and gas reserves.
Sifting through the data, E&Y found that finding costs are silently obliterating E&P profits. The cost to find a barrel of oil equivalent jumped nearly 30% in 2012, to $21.83 per boe from just $16.90 per boe in 2011.
On the back of all of these growing costs, the study shows that total E&P exploration and develop spending rose 20% in 2012. Over the last five years, global spending has grinded upward by an incredible 48%.
Here’s where these rapidly-inflating expenses get really worrying for investors: because E&P companies are no longer seeing the cash flow and reserves growth to support this spending.
Just look at the numbers. Combined oil and gas production globally rose by a meager 2% in 2012. With producers managing just a 1% increase in revenues from this output.
Reserves also aren’t growing much. Oil reserves globally bumped up by just 3% in 2012. Worldwide gas reserves actually dropped by 2% on the year.
Amid this stagnant growth, rising costs are hitting the bottom line hard. Worldwide after-tax profits for the E&P sector plummeted 16% in 2012, to $268.4 billion."
www.oilprice.com
On the other hand, I was expecting to like Grimsby, and didn't enjoy it much.
Such are the perils of walking through an unfamiliar town...
Now you are just embarrassing yourself...
@joe_oliver: So the IPPR report's published at 8.15am. At 8.39 Rachel Reeves says she's not considering it. Briefing operation yesterday went well then?
@OwenJones84: @RachelReevesMP Hi Rachel - are you going to write something today clarifying the situation?
He should have been sacked for being daft enough for using a work computer for pron.....
I suppose this is the point...
I assume you don't pay tax or you don't have a personal allowance (9,440).
Are you an illegal immigrant?
Perhaps if you got a job you could see the effect on your payslip etc.
A bit of lets say - life experience.
Or just plug in £35k here.
http://www.listentotaxman.com/index.php
We need R0berts or coontputer back to up the level of the leftie intellect....
BBC Business Live
Will make a change for Len & Co, from beer and sandwiches, as they can afford it.
The ShakySheikh claims that the average wage earner at £25k should be the target of any largesse from the Chancellor, others argue for an across-the-board cut in basic rates or NI.
What is your opinion ?
Once you get outside the M25, housing is very affordable in many places. London enormously distorts perceptions.
@PatrickWintour: Labour makes fine mess of briefing withdrawal of benefits from under 24. Briefs Telegraph on a policy it does not know if it supports.
@SunnyHundal: I can see how young people will clamour to vote for Labour in 2015 if our message is they're lazy & unwilling to work unless denied benefits
Is that a record? I assume he must be running against Mr Delingpole and wind farms here.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100246610/ukip-is-planning-to-run-one-of-the-most-dangerous-campaigns-in-british-political-history/
Theres any number of things you could do, it's a matter of how much it costs, who it effects, but it does get complicated quickly, and that's bad for the system.