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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Some brighter polling news for the Tories – today’s YouGov

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  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    More on the lack of laughter

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/10392925/Bondholders-poised-to-seize-control-of-Co-operative-Bank.html

    "The bank was facing closure after the regulator ordered the group in June to raise £1.5bn to meet a capital shortfall or be put into “resolution”.

    Euan Sutherland, Co-op group chief executive, said: “We have reached an agreement in principle that saves the Co-op Bank. This is the first bank to be rescued and survive as a stand alone entity without taxpayer money.”"
  • Simon Carr's PMQ sketch:

    http://order-order.com/2013/11/20/pmqs-sketch-power-is-not-the-only-drug/

    Note. Reconstruction. Dialogue may not represent actual dialogue. Steve Coogan appeared as David Cameron and Johnny Vegas as Ed Balls. Ed Miliband was played by himself.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @TGOHF

    Go on, roughly how much does the Group owe these hedge funds? Give it a go.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    edited November 2013
    Must have been a mistweet by Jack D MP or accidental like or retweet by Mr Left Thumb.

    Screen shot details on Guido - might upset the pr0n filters - put the coffee away from your keyboards.
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    Puerile homophobic stuff from Guido - can we get back to politics at some point?
  • Neil said:

    @TGOHF

    Go on, roughly how much does the Group owe these hedge funds? Give it a go.

    Neil, there was a very interesting (albeit anonymous) comment in the Coppola blog:

    If the bondholders refuse the Co-op's offer and the Co-op does not provide the additional £0.5 billion from its own resources it will be placed in resolution and assets to the value of £0.5 billion will be sold to refinance the bank. Note that the new rules introduced in April to cover Banks owned by conglomerates (the qualifying parent undertaking) provide the PRA with the powers to bail in all the Co-op's assets if necessary. Under these rules the the PRA has first call upon these assets and the Co-op's syndicated lenders would lose any guarantees attached to the assets. As the Co-op has sufficient assets to meet the £0.5 billion the bondholders would not be bailed in and the bank could continue.

    I have no idea if that is accurate, but it sounds well-informed.

    http://coppolacomment.blogspot.co.uk/2013/08/the-ethical-co-op.html
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    tim said:

    I see Lord Ashcroft is questioning Dan Hodges assertion that a "15% Labour lead" in the marginals is overturned when an MP's name is mentioned.

    Are we supposed to take Hodges seriously on this amazing stat?

    Hodges is as well connected in the Tory Party as he is in the Labour Party.

  • TGOHF said:

    Something to do with Jack Dromey given the tweet exchange?? tim's also gone missing...

    Guido Fawkes‏@GuidoFawkes1m
    #StayTuned Prepare to drop your jaw.

    Harry Cole‏@MrHarryCole1m
    There's a big one coming.

    Guido was taunting Mr Dromey that screencaps had been taken.

    Sounds like a deletion of an embarrassing tweet sent in error.

    Ok guess time, naughty tweet re:

    5-1 Falkirk
    Evens McNulty smear
    Evens Drug smear of a tory
    Wow - I didn't see that coming.....

    unlike ....
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    OT I haven't watched this in ages and just adore it. Hope PB geeks enjoy.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w68qZ8JvBds
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @RichardNabavi

    Surely the bondholders would just reject the deal if that were the case?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited November 2013
    Plato said:
    Harriet will be fuming that only two PC requirements were met.... wot about the underrepresented wimmin

    He'll be biting the pillow in the Harman house tonight
  • Neil said:

    @RichardNabavi

    Surely the bondholders would just reject the deal if that were the case?

    Dunno. I'd guess it's not as clear cut as that comment suggests, but the key question is whether the Co-op can just walk away completely without recourse.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,025
    Let's face the Labour movement has done nothing to the Co-Op bank that they did not do to the country. It is just a little more obvious and embarrassing.

    The bondholders are by no means all hedgies who bought the distressed debt at a considerable discount. Many are pensioners and former employees and they are the real victims in this. They were being offered a lousy deal by which they either got the interest they had been promised but no capital or a reduced interest rate and reduced capital.

    The only argument for accepting this chiseling, which is capitalism in the raw, is the risk that the roof would come in without a lot of new capital from the hedgies and the Co-Op movement. I am a little bemused that the movement was ever going to get away with this because they were effectively stealing from these bondholders to protect the rest of the group.

    The Hedgies now have a major headache. Having bought on the cheap how bad does a dissolution have to get before they fail to get their money back and a turn? Is it really worth investing another £500m in the hope that 70% of the bank will be worth more than they have already spent and would have to pay? They get paid big bucks for making these calls but I have my doubts.
  • Cue the TV show re the co-op, The only way is Ethics.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    edited November 2013
    tim said:

    Bobajob said:

    tim said:

    I see Lord Ashcroft is questioning Dan Hodges assertion that a "15% Labour lead" in the marginals is overturned when an MP's name is mentioned.

    Are we supposed to take Hodges seriously on this amazing stat?

    Hodges is as well connected in the Tory Party as he is in the Labour Party.

    Read the quote

    "To underline the theory, he points to the poll of key seats, published by Lord Ashcroft, which gave Labour a 15 point lead. “We reran it in the seats we hold,” he said, “but included the name of the sitting MP. We were ahead by 2 per cent.”

    "We reran it in the seats we hold"

    The whole poll was done in Tory held seats, someone is telling porkies.
    And the idea that mentioning the name of an MP in that list of seats results in an 8.5% swing is just laughable.
    If Hodges believes what he's fed he's an idiot, if he made it up he's an idiot


    Hodges is incorrect
    Ashcroft poll Table 4 Lab 42 Con 29
    and after mentioning constituency and candidates
    Table 7 Lab 43 Con 29
  • How likely is it that a married MP would be deliberately favouriting gay porn on a public twitter account? It's pretty obviously technological idiocy.

    Mind you, this looks like a subject for further detailed research when I get home later tonight.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    antifrank said:

    How likely is it that a married MP would be deliberately favouriting gay porn on a public twitter account? It's pretty obviously technological idiocy.

    It's obviously something for Guido and his followers to get excited about.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    LOL - it made me think of Mr Jacqui Smith and Raw Meat II
    isam said:

    Plato said:
    Harriet will be fuming that only two PC requirements were met.... wot about the underrepresented wimmin

    He'll be biting the pillow in the Harman house tonight
  • You're all misreading Dan Hodges' comment about the polls. To quote exactly:

    "To underline the theory, he points to the poll of key seats, published by Lord Ashcroft, which gave Labour a 15 point lead. “We reran it in the seats we hold,” he said, “but included the name of the sitting MP. We were ahead by 2 per cent.” "

    The "We" at the beginning of the second sentence suggests that the anonymous source is not talking about Lord Ashcroft's poll, but a separate poll conducted by the Conservatives. We don't know whether the two sets of polls refer to the same seats of course, and it would appear that they probably don't.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    LOL

    Mark Sparrow @MarkGSparrow
    Cameron must have a crystal ball. What was he saying the other day about men having uncomfortable conversations with wives about porn?
  • NextNext Posts: 826
    NEW THREAD
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    antifrank said:

    You're all misreading Dan Hodges' comment about the polls. To quote exactly:

    "To underline the theory, he points to the poll of key seats, published by Lord Ashcroft, which gave Labour a 15 point lead. “We reran it in the seats we hold,” he said, “but included the name of the sitting MP. We were ahead by 2 per cent.” "

    The "We" at the beginning of the second sentence suggests that the anonymous source is not talking about Lord Ashcroft's poll, but a separate poll conducted by the Conservatives. We don't know whether the two sets of polls refer to the same seats of course, and it would appear that they probably don't.

    Will the full data tables of that " new " poll now have to be published under BPC rules ?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    antifrank said:

    How likely is it that a married MP would be deliberately favouriting gay porn on a public twitter account? It's pretty obviously technological idiocy.

    Mind you, this looks like a subject for further detailed research when I get home later tonight.

    Have you seen the missus?
This discussion has been closed.