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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Will Dominic Cummings still be senior adviser to Boris Johnson

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  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    The RAGE of all these Tweetards when we leave will be so delicious.
    Yes, because causing pain to your enemy and revelling in it is the most important thing.
    Look at the Remainer reactions to say the Miller case or the Supreme Court - and tell me there has been no revelling.....
    And the inevitable “yeah, but they did it first...” response - within 10 minutes. Politics of the playground.
    Thank you for making my point......
    I think you missed mine.
    As usual, you didn't make one.
    The insults, oh the insults, they are so persuasive, so damning, brimming with Wildean wit. You have utterly humiliated me into changing my views. Or you have made yourself seem clever to the supporters of your side. Whichever is more important to you.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,534
    Charles said:

    nico67 said:

    ydoethur said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    It's called a Vote of No Confidence. Even Corbyn knows that, he just dare not call one.
    Bozo said he’s not going even with a VONC . The stench surrounding no 10 is becoming similar to Trumps WH.

    Nope - he said he stays in office until there is someone else proven to have the confidence of the House. Which is constitutional fact - we always have a PM
    True. But the story - not denied by Number 10 as far as I know - is this:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7542687/Boris-Johnson-dare-Queen-SACK-SQUATTING-Downing-Street-Brexit-done.html

    I agree It's probably just spin for "I'll remain PM until there's a different PM", but it's interesting that the Downing Street operation thinks it helpful to leave it to the Mail to put it in this way.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    DougSeal said:



    Of course. No gaffes at all. It will all be plain sailing. What are you on?

    Even if Cumming's life depended on it he couldn't run an election campaign as disastrously as May did.

    There will be gaffes of course, there always are in campaigns, but it won't be a pre-planned disaster like last time.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,616
    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    The RAGE of all these Tweetards when we leave will be so delicious.
    Yes, because causing pain to your enemy and revelling in it is the most important thing.
    Look at the Remainer reactions to say the Miller case or the Supreme Court - and tell me there has been no revelling.....
    And the inevitable “yeah, but they did it first...” response - within 10 minutes. Politics of the playground.
    Thank you for making my point......
    I think you missed mine.
    As usual, you didn't make one.
    The insults, oh the insults, they are so persuasive, so damning, brimming with Wildean wit. You have utterly humiliated me into changing my views. Or you have made yourself seem clever to the supporters of your side. Whichever is more important to you.
    You don't engage in any material discussion on how Brexit is going to be resolved. So piss off, smart arse.

    I'm making a VERY persuasive case for why we will have a Brexit deal by 31st of this month. You don't have the smarts to dine at the top table.
  • TGOHF2 said:
    Dear Jo

    I am writing for some advice, one of my many tenants has recently been in trouble with the law, losing in the courts and the local papers suggest he is also involved in some sex and corruption scandals. It is coming towards the end of his term, and given his past behaviour I am concerned he might not leave on time. Please can you prepare eviction papers and bailiffs in case they are required.

    Best Regards

    Liz
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    The RAGE of all these Tweetards when we leave will be so delicious.
    Yes, because causing pain to your enemy and revelling in it is the most important thing. It’s what most stable conflict resolution consist of.
    As a matter of fact I sincerely hope the utter waste they have made of huge swathes of their time here on our beautiful planet gives them cause for reevaluation and hopefully rehabilitation.
    Indeed. Insulting your enemy's very existence on the planet after your victory is indeed another sure way to secure a lasting peace. Never fails that one. Also insulting people is a very good way of bring people round to your cause I find.
    So maybe you should have a lie down and stop doing it.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Dont know anything about his policies or popularity but Latvian PM comes across very well on Marr speaking in a foreign language. Puts our politicians (almost) across the board to shame.

    The Plaid Cymru MPs speak a foreign language well. Their English is very good.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Let's not argue about 'oo insulted 'oo... this is meant to be a happy website.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    edited October 2019


    I thought the Cummings plan was for Boris to squat in No.10 after a VoNC until the GE, while the UK crashes out with No Deal (assuming they can find a way to nuetralise the Benn Act)?

    If the opposition call a VoNC but then cannot agree a government who would you then propose is resident in No.10 up until the GE?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    ydoethur said:

    If we don’t Leave on 31st October the Cummings strategy will have completely failed. He would have no option but to walk away. He will have been humiliated. His legend destroyed. My guess is that he would not go quietly.

    It already has failed. Assuming that his strategy was to shut down Parliament, call an election, win a majority and then pass a deal, which is what it seems to have been. But it was always going to fail as it was a stupid strategy that was mutually contradictory. There was never time to have both an election and a deal passed.

    But as for his legend, I would point out that in all his career he has achieved one thing - winning the EU referendum. And that might have been in spite of him rather than because of him.

    Everything else he has tried, in politics or business, has been at best a failure and at worst a fiasco. Just look at his disastrous record in education.
    But as that example demonstrates, he has had a curious amount of success in persuading large numbers of people that his disastrous failures have been against the odds successes. Bit like Boris, but absent any charm at all.
  • Dont know anything about his policies or popularity but Latvian PM comes across very well on Marr speaking in a foreign language. Puts our politicians (almost) across the board to shame.

    The Plaid Cymru MPs speak a foreign language well. Their English is very good.
    English is an official language of Wales.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,478
    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:
    After the initial "Leave" vote, the EU reached out to us and said (and I'm paraphrasing here):

    As you've voted to Leave, you probably don't want a role setting internal EU rules, and it would probably be worthwhile us creating a position that will be one where the UK and the EU have close cooperation in the future.

    Which led to the creation of the EU Security Commisonar, because it was assumed that the EU and the UK would want to have close arrangements in future.

    I mention this, because this was a demonstration of how (at the beginning of this process), both sides seemed to be wanting to work towards something that worked for everyone.

    Before Steve Baker and Marc Francois and Dominic Grieve fucked things up.
    Also don't forget Enda Kenny's 2016 offer to work together on Irish border proposals, to use technological means rather than physical means to enforce customs when tarrifs and regulations differ between the UK and EU.

    If all sides had kept up the collegiate approach, things would be a lot better now, but sadly at some point soon after the referendum all sides adopted a much more adversarial attitude, so three years later we are where we are.
    It was when Leo took over that it all began to go wrong
    Why does Boris, and May before her, apparently ONLY take into the account the views of the DUP as far as NI is concerned. Isn't paying them a fortune for their Parliamentary support enough? They may be the largest party in the Assembly and the party with the largest number of Parliamentary from the Province but ate the last Aeembly elections they only got just over a quarter of the vote.
    The late Lord Hailsham wrote a book about an Elective Dictatorship and this appears to be we what have, especially across the Irish Sea.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    edited October 2019

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    The RAGE of all these Tweetards when we leave will be so delicious.
    Yes, because causing pain to your enemy and revelling in it is the most important thing.
    Look at the Remainer reactions to say the Miller case or the Supreme Court - and tell me there has been no revelling.....
    And the inevitable “yeah, but they did it first...” response - within 10 minutes. Politics of the playground.
    Thank you for making my point......
    I think you missed mine.
    As usual, you didn't make one.
    The insults, oh the insults, they are so persuasive, so damning, brimming with Wildean wit. You have utterly humiliated me into changing my views. Or you have made yourself seem clever to the supporters of your side. Whichever is more important to you.
    You don't engage in any material discussion on how Brexit is going to be resolved. So piss off, smart arse.

    I'm making a VERY persuasive case for why we will have a Brexit deal by 31st of this month. You don't have the smarts to dine at the top table.
    Please carry on insulting me. I assure you I am reeling, devastated by your bon mots. I am questioning my very being as I type.

    As you know I wasn’t talking to you. I responded to a post that had nothing to do with that topic at all, making an implied critique of the current trend of insult rather than argument to a another poster, and you interjected by pointing to similar behaviour by your opponents justifying such behaviour. Why does my post have to have anything to do with your, self-described “VERY persuasive” case? I haven’t read it so I can’t comment. It certainly isn’t in this comment tree. I was, instead, responding to LuckyGuy’s response to a tweet posted by another user and you responded to that. If you want me to respond to a different post do invite me to - I doubt you will but feel free.

    I look forward to your next devastating fusillade at my intelligence that will, I am sure, make me quite my job and the internet forever for some more suitable calling.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    felix said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    The RAGE of all these Tweetards when we leave will be so delicious.
    Yes, because causing pain to your enemy and revelling in it is the most important thing. It’s what most stable conflict resolution consist of.
    As a matter of fact I sincerely hope the utter waste they have made of huge swathes of their time here on our beautiful planet gives them cause for reevaluation and hopefully rehabilitation.
    Indeed. Insulting your enemy's very existence on the planet after your victory is indeed another sure way to secure a lasting peace. Never fails that one. Also insulting people is a very good way of bring people round to your cause I find.
    So maybe you should have a lie down and stop doing it.

    Yeah. I’ve accused so many people on here of wasting their lives and insulting them as well. What a hypocrite I am.
  • Let's not argue about 'oo insulted 'oo... this is meant to be a happy website.

    Christ, when was this decided? I may have been lured here on a false prospectus all along.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065

    Dont know anything about his policies or popularity but Latvian PM comes across very well on Marr speaking in a foreign language. Puts our politicians (almost) across the board to shame.

    There are 3 MPS who regularly give interviews in German on German radio, conveniently one Tory, one Labour and one LD. Farage despite having a German wife does not give interviews in German.

    I'm guessing there are more who can/could give interviews in French or Spanish
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106


    I agree It's probably just spin for "I'll remain PM until there's a different PM", but it's interesting that the Downing Street operation thinks it helpful to leave it to the Mail to put it in this way.

    I would be surprised if No.10 sanctioned the Mail's framing of it in this way.

    I see little electoral gain with Cumming's target audience in being seen to be pushing back at HMQ.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,478

    Let's not argue about 'oo insulted 'oo... this is meant to be a happy website.

    Christ, when was this decided? I may have been lured here on a false prospectus all along.
    Best laugh I've had for a few days! Thanks!
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    The RAGE of all these Tweetards when we leave will be so delicious.
    Yes, because causing pain to your enemy and revelling in it is the most important thing.
    Look at the Remainer reactions to say the Miller case or the Supreme Court - and tell me there has been no revelling.....
    And the inevitable “yeah, but they did it first...” response - within 10 minutes. Politics of the playground.
    Thank you for making my point......
    I think you missed mine.
    As usual, you didn't make one.
    The insults, oh the insults, they are so persuasive, so damning, brimming with Wildean wit. You have utterly humiliated me into changing my views. Or you have made yourself seem clever to the supporters of your side. Whichever is more important to you.
    You don't engage in any material discussion on how Brexit is going to be resolved. So piss off, smart arse.

    I'm making a VERY persuasive case for why we will have a Brexit deal by 31st of this month. You don't have the smarts to dine at the top table.
    Have you considered that maybe the EU would actually prefer to deal with a Johnson Govt with a healthy majority in place of the current situation? At least they could be confident that any agreement reached would get through Parliament and less susceptible to Parliamentary game playing.

    And I don’t actually believe that Johnson as PM, with a large majority and the prospect of five years of power, would actually be serious about pursuing no deal. Something which could practically destroy his Government overnight if it went wrong. Or if he did actually go no deal, it would still be much easier to recover the situation in the aftermath, and we would end up with something very similar to the WA via an alternative route.

  • eristdoof said:

    Dont know anything about his policies or popularity but Latvian PM comes across very well on Marr speaking in a foreign language. Puts our politicians (almost) across the board to shame.

    There are 3 MPS who regularly give interviews in German on German radio, conveniently one Tory, one Labour and one LD. Farage despite having a German wife does not give interviews in German.

    I'm guessing there are more who can/could give interviews in French or Spanish
    Also an ex SNP one, Angus Robertson, I believe (of course he may not be in such demand nowadays being an ex).
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298
    I see Boris recommended Arcuri for a 100k quango job. What a good friend he is.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065

    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:
    After the initial "Leave" vote, the EU reached out to us and said (and I'm paraphrasing here):

    As you've voted to Leave, you probably don't want a role setting internal EU rules, and it would probably be worthwhile us creating a position that will be one where the UK and the EU have close cooperation in the future.

    Which led to the creation of the EU Security Commisonar, because it was assumed that the EU and the UK would want to have close arrangements in future.

    I mention this, because this was a demonstration of how (at the beginning of this process), both sides seemed to be wanting to work towards something that worked for everyone.

    Before Steve Baker and Marc Francois and Dominic Grieve fucked things up.
    Also don't forget Enda Kenny's 2016 offer to work together on Irish border proposals, to use technological means rather than physical means to enforce customs when tarrifs and regulations differ between the UK and EU.

    If all sides had kept up the collegiate approach, things would be a lot better now, but sadly at some point soon after the referendum all sides adopted a much more adversarial attitude, so three years later we are where we are.
    It was when Leo took over that it all began to go wrong
    Why does Boris, and May before her, apparently ONLY take into the account the views of the DUP as far as NI is concerned.
    Because they are only prepared to hear what they would like to hear.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    The Guardian write up of the Opinium numbers sheds light on the topline. Looks like the Lib Dem ' revoke ' pledge provoked a spasm amongst Remain voters which quickly unwound.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/06/poll-shows-conservative-party-15-points-ahead-of-labour

    Or else it is standard polling error. Opinium generally has the lowest LD shares
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited October 2019
    Charles said:

    nico67 said:

    ydoethur said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    It's called a Vote of No Confidence. Even Corbyn knows that, he just dare not call one.
    Bozo said he’s not going even with a VONC . The stench surrounding no 10 is becoming similar to Trumps WH.

    Nope - he said he stays in office until there is someone else proven to have the confidence of the House. Which is constitutional fact - we always have a PM
    Well Johnson has yet to prove he has the confidence of the Commons. Has he won a Commons vote yet?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    rcs1000 said:

    nichomar said:


    What is the difference revenue wise for the EU in deal and no deal?

    That's unknown because it will depend how much the British end up paying when they try to ressurect their trading relationship after a No Deal exit, but since the UK will be more desperate for a quick deal than when they negotiated the WA, and they'll need to sweeten the deal for other member states as they'll need to to persuade all the member states to ratify, it's likely to be more than they agreed to in the WA.
    I see, but the EU are fecked either way, surely they are going to be worse of with the UK out than in.. All the other countries are going to have to cough more or some projects will have to be abandoned..
    They're not going to have to continue to pay out on any on-going British projects though. Or does No Deal only work one way?
    We are a net contributor to the tune of 40 billion or so
    I thought it was about 12 billion
    You're excluding the share of British VAT receipts that go to Brussels.
    Why did nobody mention VAT in the campaign?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budget_of_the_European_Union#VAT-based_own_resources[11]

    In addition to the regular contributions members pay "0.3% of their harmonised VAT base into the budget". It's a small but meaningful bump to the regularly discussed number.

    (That's 0.3% from 20% - i.e. 6% of total VAT take)
    But isn’t that VAT calculation simply part of what makes up the total figure for our contribution, rather than a ‘bump’ on top of it ?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited October 2019
    France in a match with Tonga - 20:14 after 52 minutes.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    alex. said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    The RAGE of all these Tweetards when we leave will be so delicious.
    Yes, because causing pain to your enemy and revelling in it is the most important thing.
    Look at the Remainer reactions to say the Miller case or the Supreme Court - and tell me there has been no revelling.....
    And the inevitable “yeah, but they did it first...” response - within 10 minutes. Politics of the playground.
    Thank you for making my point......
    I think you missed mine.
    As usual, you didn't make one.
    The insults, oh the insults, they are so persuasive, so damning, brimming with Wildean wit. You have utterly humiliated me into changing my views. Or you have made yourself seem clever to the supporters of your side. Whichever is more important to you.
    You don't engage in any material discussion on how Brexit is going to be resolved. So piss off, smart arse.

    I'm making a VERY persuasive case for why we will have a Brexit deal by 31st of this month. You don't have the smarts to dine at the top table.
    Have you considered that maybe the EU would actually prefer to deal with a Johnson Govt with a healthy majority in place of the current situation? At least they could be confident that any agreement reached would get through Parliament and less susceptible to Parliamentary game playing.

    And I don’t actually believe that Johnson as PM, with a large majority and the prospect of five years of power, would actually be serious about pursuing no deal. Something which could practically destroy his Government overnight if it went wrong. Or if he did actually go no deal, it would still be much easier to recover the situation in the aftermath, and we would end up with something very similar to the WA via an alternative route.

    I don't think it's that he's pursuing No Deal. It's that he inexplicably staked his political career on leaving by 31 October, and the chances of doing that with a deal are now very remote.
  • felix said:

    I'm entertained by the polls. If as suggested the Tories are going to win by a HYUFD-gasm then the Tories would be picking up seats like Stockton South. Yet all the noise on social media is Brexit. The people making said noise are notable Tory dampers and yet every man Jack of them are voting Brexit not Tory this time.

    How odd to find the polls entertaining yet take postings on social media seriously.?!?
    The problem with the pollsters is that they struggle to find the kind of people motivated by Brexit. Didn't we learn this lesson in 2016? The paradigm is leave/remain now, not Lab/Con. That they are pro-Leave does not make them pro-Tory as is becoming the default assumption, with people then feeding that assumption into UNS and hey presto a Tory majority of 704.

    Some seats are going to be a genuine 4 or 5 way split. Which means utter chaos. Not a Tory majority
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900


    Question is: if that 0.3% VAT contribution (which would be sizable - circa £6bn) is in addition to the other EU contributions, where does it appear in the Pink Book?

    I think the vat payment is included in usual calculations of net payments etc. It's one of the reasons we ended up with a rebate.
  • eristdoof said:

    Dont know anything about his policies or popularity but Latvian PM comes across very well on Marr speaking in a foreign language. Puts our politicians (almost) across the board to shame.

    There are 3 MPS who regularly give interviews in German on German radio, conveniently one Tory, one Labour and one LD. Farage despite having a German wife does not give interviews in German.

    I'm guessing there are more who can/could give interviews in French or Spanish
    How do they come across? I am not praising him solely for speaking English, I was (trying to) praise him for coming across as articulate, pragmatic, clear, confident and concise, out of which most of are MPs can only manage 2 or 3.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    eristdoof said:

    Dont know anything about his policies or popularity but Latvian PM comes across very well on Marr speaking in a foreign language. Puts our politicians (almost) across the board to shame.

    There are 3 MPS who regularly give interviews in German on German radio, conveniently one Tory, one Labour and one LD. Farage despite having a German wife does not give interviews in German.

    I'm guessing there are more who can/could give interviews in French or Spanish
    Also an ex SNP one, Angus Robertson, I believe (of course he may not be in such demand nowadays being an ex).
    If we are counting former MPs, then our own Nick Palmer is a professional translator. But doesn't Boris speak French?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    Once again, the Brexit loons demonstrate that even now they have no idea how the EU works. The UK can nominate someone to be a commissioner, but the European Parliament has to approve the appointment.

    The UK can just keep nominating Brexiteers then
    Very adult, surefire winning tactics
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236

    eristdoof said:

    Dont know anything about his policies or popularity but Latvian PM comes across very well on Marr speaking in a foreign language. Puts our politicians (almost) across the board to shame.

    There are 3 MPS who regularly give interviews in German on German radio, conveniently one Tory, one Labour and one LD. Farage despite having a German wife does not give interviews in German.

    I'm guessing there are more who can/could give interviews in French or Spanish
    Also an ex SNP one, Angus Robertson, I believe (of course he may not be in such demand nowadays being an ex).
    If we are counting former MPs, then our own Nick Palmer is a professional translator. But doesn't Boris speak French?
    articulate, pragmatic, clear, confident and concise.... He only manages one out of the five in his native language.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    Andrew said:


    Question is: if that 0.3% VAT contribution (which would be sizable - circa £6bn) is in addition to the other EU contributions, where does it appear in the Pink Book?

    I think the vat payment is included in usual calculations of net payments etc. It's one of the reasons we ended up with a rebate.
    That was my impression, too.
  • eristdoof said:

    Dont know anything about his policies or popularity but Latvian PM comes across very well on Marr speaking in a foreign language. Puts our politicians (almost) across the board to shame.

    There are 3 MPS who regularly give interviews in German on German radio, conveniently one Tory, one Labour and one LD. Farage despite having a German wife does not give interviews in German.

    I'm guessing there are more who can/could give interviews in French or Spanish

    I have heard Corbyn do interviews in Spanish. He has a pretty decent A level (old school) grasp. Terrible accent, though.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236

    eristdoof said:

    Dont know anything about his policies or popularity but Latvian PM comes across very well on Marr speaking in a foreign language. Puts our politicians (almost) across the board to shame.

    There are 3 MPS who regularly give interviews in German on German radio, conveniently one Tory, one Labour and one LD. Farage despite having a German wife does not give interviews in German.

    I'm guessing there are more who can/could give interviews in French or Spanish

    I have heard Corbyn do interviews in Spanish. He has a pretty decent A level (old school) grasp. Terrible accent, though.

    Venezuelan ?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    Charles said:

    nico67 said:

    ydoethur said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    It's called a Vote of No Confidence. Even Corbyn knows that, he just dare not call one.
    Bozo said he’s not going even with a VONC . The stench surrounding no 10 is becoming similar to Trumps WH.

    Nope - he said he stays in office until there is someone else proven to have the confidence of the House. Which is constitutional fact - we always have a PM
    Well Johnson has yet to prove he has the confidence of the Commons. Has he won a Commons vote yet?
    Yet none of his opponents are willing to vonc him. Funny that.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    Let's not argue about 'oo insulted 'oo... this is meant to be a happy website.

    Christ, when was this decided? I may have been lured here on a false prospectus all along.
    LOL, it is handbags at dawn nearly every day, at least for last 3 years
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:
    After the initial "Leave" vote, the EU reached out to us and said (and I'm paraphrasing here):

    As you've voted to Leave, you probably don't want a role setting internal EU rules, and it would probably be worthwhile us creating a position that will be one where the UK and the EU have close cooperation in the future.

    Which led to the creation of the EU Security Commisonar, because it was assumed that the EU and the UK would want to have close arrangements in future.

    I mention this, because this was a demonstration of how (at the beginning of this process), both sides seemed to be wanting to work towards something that worked for everyone.

    Before Steve Baker and Marc Francois and Dominic Grieve fucked things up.
    Also don't forget Enda Kenny's 2016 offer to work together on Irish border proposals, to use technological means rather than physical means to enforce customs when tarrifs and regulations differ between the UK and EU.

    If all sides had kept up the collegiate approach, things would be a lot better now, but sadly at some point soon after the referendum all sides adopted a much more adversarial attitude, so three years later we are where we are.
    May's redlines killed all possibility of a bi partisan consensual approach. She decided that the Tories owned Brexit, and shouldn't be surprised that no one else supports it as a result.

    Those counting on a Tory landslide have short memories, not that I expect an election this year:

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1180718891242344453?s=19
    Labour still polling even below that 2017 poll even if the Tories are too.

    Main difference the Brexit Party up more than UKIP were and the LDs also higher.

    Plus of course there will be no dementia tax gaffes etc from Boris unlike May
    That's true but what about the possibility of his government sponsored harem revealing themselves during the campaign?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,478
    edited October 2019
    "Quote" rel="Nigelb">

    eristdoof said:

    Dont know anything about his policies or popularity but Latvian PM comes across very well on Marr speaking in a foreign language. Puts our politicians (almost) across the board to shame.

    There are 3 MPS who regularly give interviews in German on German radio, conveniently one Tory, one Labour and one LD. Farage despite having a German wife does not give interviews in German.

    I'm guessing there are more who can/could give interviews in French or Spanish
    Also an ex SNP one, Angus Robertson, I believe (of course he may not be in such demand nowadays being an ex).
    If we are counting former MPs, then our own Nick Palmer is a professional translator. But doesn't Boris speak French?
    articulate, pragmatic, clear, confident and concise.... He only manages one out of the five in his native language.

    Nick Clegg is a loss in that department speaks English, French, Dutch, German, and Spanish

    Edit; sorry, distracted while editing.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    Andrew said:


    Question is: if that 0.3% VAT contribution (which would be sizable - circa £6bn) is in addition to the other EU contributions, where does it appear in the Pink Book?

    I think the vat payment is included in usual calculations of net payments etc. It's one of the reasons we ended up with a rebate.
    We pay in peanuts for the benefits we get from a market of 500 million
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    malcolmg said:

    Let's not argue about 'oo insulted 'oo... this is meant to be a happy website.

    Christ, when was this decided? I may have been lured here on a false prospectus all along.
    LOL, it is handbags at dawn nearly every day, at least for last 3 years
    That’s only to bat away the low flying turnips, malcolm.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    The Guardian write up of the Opinium numbers sheds light on the topline. Looks like the Lib Dem ' revoke ' pledge provoked a spasm amongst Remain voters which quickly unwound.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/06/poll-shows-conservative-party-15-points-ahead-of-labour

    Or else it is standard polling error. Opinium generally has the lowest LD shares
    That would not explain the sharp drop this week. There is no doubt that different polling companies are producing quite different results - maybe it is best to imply the ones you don't like are wrong.. maybe...
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    malcolmg said:


    Very adult, surefire winning tactics

    What are they going to do, start negotiating in bad faith?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    felix said:

    I'm entertained by the polls. If as suggested the Tories are going to win by a HYUFD-gasm then the Tories would be picking up seats like Stockton South. Yet all the noise on social media is Brexit. The people making said noise are notable Tory dampers and yet every man Jack of them are voting Brexit not Tory this time.

    How odd to find the polls entertaining yet take postings on social media seriously.?!?
    The problem with the pollsters is that they struggle to find the kind of people motivated by Brexit. Didn't we learn this lesson in 2016? The paradigm is leave/remain now, not Lab/Con. That they are pro-Leave does not make them pro-Tory as is becoming the default assumption, with people then feeding that assumption into UNS and hey presto a Tory majority of 704.

    Some seats are going to be a genuine 4 or 5 way split. Which means utter chaos. Not a Tory majority
    Has anyone suggested a Tory majority of 704 yet? Problems with polling reliability exist but to imply that social media is somehow more accurate is - to be charitable - wishful thinking.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    Nigelb said:

    malcolmg said:

    Let's not argue about 'oo insulted 'oo... this is meant to be a happy website.

    Christ, when was this decided? I may have been lured here on a false prospectus all along.
    LOL, it is handbags at dawn nearly every day, at least for last 3 years
    That’s only to bat away the low flying turnips, malcolm.
    Always good to have a bit of vigorous debate Nigel, though if I never heard the word Brexit again I would not be disappointed.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    "Quote" rel="Nigelb">

    eristdoof said:

    Dont know anything about his policies or popularity but Latvian PM comes across very well on Marr speaking in a foreign language. Puts our politicians (almost) across the board to shame.

    There are 3 MPS who regularly give interviews in German on German radio, conveniently one Tory, one Labour and one LD. Farage despite having a German wife does not give interviews in German.

    I'm guessing there are more who can/could give interviews in French or Spanish
    Also an ex SNP one, Angus Robertson, I believe (of course he may not be in such demand nowadays being an ex).
    If we are counting former MPs, then our own Nick Palmer is a professional translator. But doesn't Boris speak French?
    articulate, pragmatic, clear, confident and concise.... He only manages one out of the five in his native language.
    Nick Clegg is a loss in that department speaks English, French, Dutch, German, and Spanish

    Edit; sorry, distracted while editing.

    Hmmm. 'Un monton de cojones' + the other 4 is still a load of bollocks.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065

    eristdoof said:

    Dont know anything about his policies or popularity but Latvian PM comes across very well on Marr speaking in a foreign language. Puts our politicians (almost) across the board to shame.

    There are 3 MPS who regularly give interviews in German on German radio, conveniently one Tory, one Labour and one LD. Farage despite having a German wife does not give interviews in German.

    I'm guessing there are more who can/could give interviews in French or Spanish
    How do they come across? I am not praising him solely for speaking English, I was (trying to) praise him for coming across as articulate, pragmatic, clear, confident and concise, out of which most of are MPs can only manage 2 or 3.
    Without having heard him I would expect the Latvian PM to be much more articulate.

    The three MPs I mentioned are, lets say, "competent". They clearly understand the questions asked, and give answers that you can understand without too much umming and ahh-ing. What I notice is the overuse of basic words such as "give" instead of "provide" or "do" instead of "enact". The English accents are very obvious, but just as with foreigners speaking English, an accent is only a problem if it so strong that it becomes difficult to understand the message.

    In terms of Ex-MPs of course Nick Clegg famously gave talks in German, and Gisela Stewart is German. Didn't Tony Blair give a talk in French at some point?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    Interesting that the GLA has greater statutory powers of investigation than does Parliament:
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/06/boris-johnson-jennifer-arcuri-london-assembly-summons
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    malcolmg said:

    Nigelb said:

    malcolmg said:

    Let's not argue about 'oo insulted 'oo... this is meant to be a happy website.

    Christ, when was this decided? I may have been lured here on a false prospectus all along.
    LOL, it is handbags at dawn nearly every day, at least for last 3 years
    That’s only to bat away the low flying turnips, malcolm.
    Always good to have a bit of vigorous debate Nigel, though if I never heard the word Brexit again I would not be disappointed.
    As so often these days, I find myself in agreement with you.
    Strange times indeed. :smile:
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584
    For Remain - the only way out of this trap is the removal of Corbyn and McDonnell.

    Until they come to terms with this well they are simply digging a hole to escape an asteroid.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    TGOHF2 said:

    For Remain - the only way out of this trap is the removal of Corbyn and McDonnell.

    Until they come to terms with this well they are simply digging a hole to escape an asteroid.

    More like they are still arguing over the design of the spade.... :D
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    A noble effort by Tonga.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Anyone seen Joker?

    No, fortunately. He's quite bad enough in Downing Street, I don't want to see him in Cannock.
    It's all...part of...the plaaaaaannnn
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    SunnyJim said:

    malcolmg said:


    Very adult, surefire winning tactics

    What are they going to do, start negotiating in bad faith?
    They could try acting like intelligent adults rather than idiots
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    eristdoof said:

    eristdoof said:

    Dont know anything about his policies or popularity but Latvian PM comes across very well on Marr speaking in a foreign language. Puts our politicians (almost) across the board to shame.

    There are 3 MPS who regularly give interviews in German on German radio, conveniently one Tory, one Labour and one LD. Farage despite having a German wife does not give interviews in German.

    I'm guessing there are more who can/could give interviews in French or Spanish
    How do they come across? I am not praising him solely for speaking English, I was (trying to) praise him for coming across as articulate, pragmatic, clear, confident and concise, out of which most of are MPs can only manage 2 or 3.
    Without having heard him I would expect the Latvian PM to be much more articulate.

    The three MPs I mentioned are, lets say, "competent". They clearly understand the questions asked, and give answers that you can understand without too much umming and ahh-ing. What I notice is the overuse of basic words such as "give" instead of "provide" or "do" instead of "enact". The English accents are very obvious, but just as with foreigners speaking English, an accent is only a problem if it so strong that it becomes difficult to understand the message.

    In terms of Ex-MPs of course Nick Clegg famously gave talks in German, and Gisela Stewart is German. Didn't Tony Blair give a talk in French at some point?
    It would be interesting to hear Boris give one in English....
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    'brings in someone else with the title of say ‘principle adviser’'

    I like this idea. Given that neither Johnson nor Cummings have any principles, they urgently need someone to fill such a role.

    On topic, while Cummings has been an abject and terrible failure, can Johnson afford to admit that? Their fates are quite closely bound up together. If Cummings walks before an election, Johnson is probably finished. That alone makes it an unattractive market.

    Cummings has always said he is going anyway. He’s got surgery coming up and promised Mary he’d get it done this year.
    With other people, I'd assume that information was gotten from the Internet. With you, there's a distinct possibility he told you that in person... :)
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065

    felix said:

    I'm entertained by the polls. If as suggested the Tories are going to win by a HYUFD-gasm then the Tories would be picking up seats like Stockton South. Yet all the noise on social media is Brexit. The people making said noise are notable Tory dampers and yet every man Jack of them are voting Brexit not Tory this time.

    How odd to find the polls entertaining yet take postings on social media seriously.?!?
    The problem with the pollsters is that they struggle to find the kind of people motivated by Brexit. Didn't we learn this lesson in 2016? The paradigm is leave/remain now, not Lab/Con. That they are pro-Leave does not make them pro-Tory as is becoming the default assumption, with people then feeding that assumption into UNS and hey presto a Tory majority of 704.

    Some seats are going to be a genuine 4 or 5 way split. Which means utter chaos. Not a Tory majority
    This! There was an article in the Guardian last weekend, behind the scenes at one of the polling companies. I wanted to post the link and discuss it here but did not have the time.

    One particular paragraph stood out, which was how difficult it was to contact someone who is prepared to answer. The phone poll itself required up to 15 minutes for the respondent to complete, but they only expect to find 1 respondent per hour, per interviewer. I'm guessing that a failed attempt takes about 30 seconds on average, very roughly. And over 45 minutes are taken up with those failed attempts. That means about 1 in 90 or 1.1% of the electorate are being sampled.

    No matter how good your stratification method is, unless you know at the vey least the age, sex and education level/economic category of the non-respondents you have absolutely no way of knowing how biassed your sampling is. And around 1% sample rate means you are a hostage to this response bias. We hope that the decision to respond/not respond is independent from the voting intention preference, but it is nothing more than hoping. Particularly misleading is if the response bias has changed in nature since the last GE.

    BTW The "Shy Tory" effect in the 90's was slightly different, as that was "Conservative voting *respondents* being embarrased to say that they vote conservative", but I expect that in reality this problem also leaked through to response bias.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    eristdoof said:

    Dont know anything about his policies or popularity but Latvian PM comes across very well on Marr speaking in a foreign language. Puts our politicians (almost) across the board to shame.

    There are 3 MPS who regularly give interviews in German on German radio, conveniently one Tory, one Labour and one LD. Farage despite having a German wife does not give interviews in German.

    I'm guessing there are more who can/could give interviews in French or Spanish
    Boris had done interviews in French on French TV. He's not very good but, au moins, he has a go.
  • rkrkrk said:

    I see Boris recommended Arcuri for a 100k quango job. What a good friend he is.

    I thought having a politician friend to recommend you was the only way you got a Quango job?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    nico67 said:

    ydoethur said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    It's called a Vote of No Confidence. Even Corbyn knows that, he just dare not call one.
    Bozo said he’s not going even with a VONC . The stench surrounding no 10 is becoming similar to Trumps WH.

    Nope - he said he stays in office until there is someone else proven to have the confidence of the House. Which is constitutional fact - we always have a PM
    Well Johnson has yet to prove he has the confidence of the Commons. Has he won a Commons vote yet?
    As leader of the governing party he was deemed to have confidence

    Traditionally (pre FTPA) this was deemed to continue until he was defeated on a Queen’s Speech, a Budget or on a measure declared to be a matter of confidence

    Now, thanks to the brilliant foresight of your party, the House needs to make a positive decision to remove him from office
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    TGOHF2 said:

    For Remain - the only way out of this trap is the removal of Corbyn and McDonnell.

    Until they come to terms with this well they are simply digging a hole to escape an asteroid.

    Au contraire, Remain needs to acknowledge that Corbyn must be part of the solution, if only in the short term. Once the election are called, the LibDems, SNP, assorted TIGgers and expelled Tories can (and must) return to opposing Corbyn with all their might, but in the immediate term, the path to Remain runs through extension, election and the grand offices of the Leader of Her Majesty's Most Loyal Opposition.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    eristdoof said:

    Dont know anything about his policies or popularity but Latvian PM comes across very well on Marr speaking in a foreign language. Puts our politicians (almost) across the board to shame.

    There are 3 MPS who regularly give interviews in German on German radio, conveniently one Tory, one Labour and one LD. Farage despite having a German wife does not give interviews in German.

    I'm guessing there are more who can/could give interviews in French or Spanish
    How do they come across? I am not praising him solely for speaking English, I was (trying to) praise him for coming across as articulate, pragmatic, clear, confident and concise, out of which most of are MPs can only manage 2 or 3.
    The Baltics are a little unusual in that a generation of people grew up listening to the World Service (broadcast from Helsinki) as an act of minor rebellion against the Russians
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    viewcode said:

    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    'brings in someone else with the title of say ‘principle adviser’'

    I like this idea. Given that neither Johnson nor Cummings have any principles, they urgently need someone to fill such a role.

    On topic, while Cummings has been an abject and terrible failure, can Johnson afford to admit that? Their fates are quite closely bound up together. If Cummings walks before an election, Johnson is probably finished. That alone makes it an unattractive market.

    Cummings has always said he is going anyway. He’s got surgery coming up and promised Mary he’d get it done this year.
    With other people, I'd assume that information was gotten from the Internet. With you, there's a distinct possibility he told you that in person... :)
    That’s all part of the charm 😝
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    SunnyJim said:

    malcolmg said:


    Very adult, surefire winning tactics

    What are they going to do, start negotiating in bad faith?
    They are already proposing to do that - asking for extensions that they will say are pointless to ensure they do not get one.

    There is also the alleged Hungarian tie-up where they are reportedly asking a foreign govt to work against the UK's interests. I think it used to be called Treason and involved the death penalty. They might want to think about moving Priti Patel to a less crucial dept :D:D
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    SunnyJim said:

    malcolmg said:


    Very adult, surefire winning tactics

    What are they going to do, start negotiating in bad faith?
    They are already proposing to do that - asking for extensions that they will say are pointless to ensure they do not get one.

    There is also the alleged Hungarian tie-up where they are reportedly asking a foreign govt to work against the UK's interests. I think it used to be called Treason and involved the death penalty. They might want to think about moving Priti Patel to a less crucial dept :D:D
    They disagree about what is in the UK’s interests
  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438

    The Guardian write up of the Opinium numbers sheds light on the topline. Looks like the Lib Dem ' revoke ' pledge provoked a spasm amongst Remain voters which quickly unwound.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/06/poll-shows-conservative-party-15-points-ahead-of-labour

    Or else it is standard polling error. Opinium generally has the lowest LD shares
    I agree boss. People too quick to link poll movements to policy or wait for other polls under other companies to be sure of a real shift.

    If a poll showed up Tory+brex at 50 any other week of the year even HY would be doubtful about it, but straight after a conference it’s obvious what it is 🙂.

    To second guess what happens next I suggest two things, firstly watch not the polls but the political narrative for example how much of the Tory poll is reliant on leaving on 31st so what happens to it when we don’t. Secondly, whose going to bring out the most credible, boring, under promised manifesto that is actually fit for the turbulence of general election campaign?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,478

    TGOHF2 said:

    For Remain - the only way out of this trap is the removal of Corbyn and McDonnell.

    Until they come to terms with this well they are simply digging a hole to escape an asteroid.

    Au contraire, Remain needs to acknowledge that Corbyn must be part of the solution, if only in the short term. Once the election are called, the LibDems, SNP, assorted TIGgers and expelled Tories can (and must) return to opposing Corbyn with all their might, but in the immediate term, the path to Remain runs through extension, election and the grand offices of the Leader of Her Majesty's Most Loyal Opposition.
    It would be very helpful, and would have been so from 2016, had May in particular made some effort to get other parties than the DUP on board in her negotiations.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131

    Dont know anything about his policies or popularity but Latvian PM comes across very well on Marr speaking in a foreign language. Puts our politicians (almost) across the board to shame.

    I haven't met the PM, but I have (briefly!) met Vaira Vike-Freiberga, the former Latvian President. Sorry, it's not often I get to namedrop... :)
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,722
    Charles said:

    eristdoof said:

    Dont know anything about his policies or popularity but Latvian PM comes across very well on Marr speaking in a foreign language. Puts our politicians (almost) across the board to shame.

    There are 3 MPS who regularly give interviews in German on German radio, conveniently one Tory, one Labour and one LD. Farage despite having a German wife does not give interviews in German.

    I'm guessing there are more who can/could give interviews in French or Spanish
    How do they come across? I am not praising him solely for speaking English, I was (trying to) praise him for coming across as articulate, pragmatic, clear, confident and concise, out of which most of are MPs can only manage 2 or 3.
    The Baltics are a little unusual in that a generation of people grew up listening to the World Service (broadcast from Helsinki) as an act of minor rebellion against the Russians
    Finnish TV could be seen in Estonia, where the native Estonians also generally understand the language (whereas the 40% immigrant Russian speakers do not). It was quite a thing for them to see advertised products not available in their own country. They could have no doubt as to the relative standard of living under capitalism and Soviet communism.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Charles said:

    SunnyJim said:

    malcolmg said:


    Very adult, surefire winning tactics

    What are they going to do, start negotiating in bad faith?
    They are already proposing to do that - asking for extensions that they will say are pointless to ensure they do not get one.

    There is also the alleged Hungarian tie-up where they are reportedly asking a foreign govt to work against the UK's interests. I think it used to be called Treason and involved the death penalty. They might want to think about moving Priti Patel to a less crucial dept :D:D
    They disagree about what is in the UK’s interests
    That is the standard position of traitors, yes? I don’t recall Leavers showing such latitude to the views of Remainers when they conflicted with national policy.
  • Charles said:

    nico67 said:

    ydoethur said:

    TGOHF2 said:
    It's called a Vote of No Confidence. Even Corbyn knows that, he just dare not call one.
    Bozo said he’s not going even with a VONC . The stench surrounding no 10 is becoming similar to Trumps WH.

    Nope - he said he stays in office until there is someone else proven to have the confidence of the House. Which is constitutional fact - we always have a PM
    This is a persistent myth. But it's not true. In 1922, for example, the King accepted Lloyd George's resignation in an audience on the afternoon of 19th October 1922, a fact recorded in the Court Circular. The King quickly thereafter gave an audience to Bonar Law, but Bonar Law was not certain he could form an administration and so was not actually appointed Prime Minister until 23rd October 1922. In those four days, no one held the office.

    The rule is that we *should* always have a Prime Minister, and the Queen and everyone else should always strive to ensure that we do have one, but it's not always possible to achieve that goal (imagine the sudden death of a PM in office, for example) and so sometimes there will be situations in which, as a fact, we don't have a Prime Minister.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    SunnyJim said:

    malcolmg said:


    Very adult, surefire winning tactics

    What are they going to do, start negotiating in bad faith?
    They are already proposing to do that - asking for extensions that they will say are pointless to ensure they do not get one.

    There is also the alleged Hungarian tie-up where they are reportedly asking a foreign govt to work against the UK's interests. I think it used to be called Treason and involved the death penalty. They might want to think about moving Priti Patel to a less crucial dept :D:D
    They disagree about what is in the UK’s interests
    That is the standard position of traitors, yes? I don’t recall Leavers showing such latitude to the views of Remainers when they conflicted with national policy.
    The government has greater latitude in foreign policy than individual citizens
  • Charles said:

    Charles said:

    SunnyJim said:

    malcolmg said:


    Very adult, surefire winning tactics

    What are they going to do, start negotiating in bad faith?
    They are already proposing to do that - asking for extensions that they will say are pointless to ensure they do not get one.

    There is also the alleged Hungarian tie-up where they are reportedly asking a foreign govt to work against the UK's interests. I think it used to be called Treason and involved the death penalty. They might want to think about moving Priti Patel to a less crucial dept :D:D
    They disagree about what is in the UK’s interests
    That is the standard position of traitors, yes? I don’t recall Leavers showing such latitude to the views of Remainers when they conflicted with national policy.
    The government has greater latitude in foreign policy than individual citizens
    It was only a matter of time before we reached traitor government status.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    SunnyJim said:

    malcolmg said:


    Very adult, surefire winning tactics

    What are they going to do, start negotiating in bad faith?
    They are already proposing to do that - asking for extensions that they will say are pointless to ensure they do not get one.

    There is also the alleged Hungarian tie-up where they are reportedly asking a foreign govt to work against the UK's interests. I think it used to be called Treason and involved the death penalty. They might want to think about moving Priti Patel to a less crucial dept :D:D
    They disagree about what is in the UK’s interests
    That is the standard position of traitors, yes? I don’t recall Leavers showing such latitude to the views of Remainers when they conflicted with national policy.
    The government has greater latitude in foreign policy than individual citizens
    I somehow doubt that Leavers are going to feel constrained by such spurious theories when this government is replaced.
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613
    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:
    After the initial "Leave" vote, the EU reached out to us and said (and I'm paraphrasing here):

    As you've voted to Leave, you probably don't want a role setting internal EU rules, and it would probably be worthwhile us creating a position that will be one where the UK and the EU have close cooperation in the future.

    Which led to the creation of the EU Security Commisonar, because it was assumed that the EU and the UK would want to have close arrangements in future.

    I mention this, because this was a demonstration of how (at the beginning of this process), both sides seemed to be wanting to work towards something that worked for everyone.

    Before Steve Baker and Marc Francois and Dominic Grieve fucked things up.
    Also don't forget Enda Kenny's 2016 offer to work together on Irish border proposals, to use technological means rather than physical means to enforce customs when tarrifs and regulations differ between the UK and EU.

    If all sides had kept up the collegiate approach, things would be a lot better now, but sadly at some point soon after the referendum all sides adopted a much more adversarial attitude, so three years later we are where we are.
    May's redlines killed all possibility of a bi partisan consensual approach. She decided that the Tories owned Brexit, and shouldn't be surprised that no one else supports it as a result.

    Those counting on a Tory landslide have short memories, not that I expect an election this year:

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1180718891242344453?s=19
    Labour still polling even below that 2017 poll even if the Tories are too.

    Main difference the Brexit Party up more than UKIP were and the LDs also higher.

    Plus of course there will be no dementia tax gaffes etc from Boris unlike May
    That's true but what about the possibility of his government sponsored harem revealing themselves during the campaign?
    And would it make any difference if it was ?
    I think both Johnson and Corbyn are in the fortunate position that "scandal" is already priced in. What could an oppo research person turn up that people haven't assumed already.

    Maybe it's different for Jo Swinson









  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,478
    geoffw said:

    Charles said:

    eristdoof said:

    Dont know anything about his policies or popularity but Latvian PM comes across very well on Marr speaking in a foreign language. Puts our politicians (almost) across the board to shame.

    There are 3 MPS who regularly give interviews in German on German radio, conveniently one Tory, one Labour and one LD. Farage despite having a German wife does not give interviews in German.

    I'm guessing there are more who can/could give interviews in French or Spanish
    How do they come across? I am not praising him solely for speaking English, I was (trying to) praise him for coming across as articulate, pragmatic, clear, confident and concise, out of which most of are MPs can only manage 2 or 3.
    The Baltics are a little unusual in that a generation of people grew up listening to the World Service (broadcast from Helsinki) as an act of minor rebellion against the Russians
    Finnish TV could be seen in Estonia, where the native Estonians also generally understand the language (whereas the 40% immigrant Russian speakers do not). It was quite a thing for them to see advertised products not available in their own country. They could have no doubt as to the relative standard of living under capitalism and Soviet communism.
    I understand it took the might Red Army the best part of ten years to eliminate the Forest Brothers, the Estonian anti-Russian resistance, after reconquest in 1944/5.
    And no, AIUI, the Brothers weren't pro-German. They were pro-Estonian.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    SunnyJim said:

    malcolmg said:


    Very adult, surefire winning tactics

    What are they going to do, start negotiating in bad faith?
    They are already proposing to do that - asking for extensions that they will say are pointless to ensure they do not get one.

    There is also the alleged Hungarian tie-up where they are reportedly asking a foreign govt to work against the UK's interests. I think it used to be called Treason and involved the death penalty. They might want to think about moving Priti Patel to a less crucial dept :D:D
    They disagree about what is in the UK’s interests
    That is the standard position of traitors, yes? I don’t recall Leavers showing such latitude to the views of Remainers when they conflicted with national policy.
    The government has greater latitude in foreign policy than individual citizens
    I somehow doubt that Leavers are going to feel constrained by such spurious theories when this government is replaced.
    One of the most depressing aspects of the last 3 years is how individuals on both sides have been willing to run off to the EU to try to undermine the government’s negotiating position
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,722

    geoffw said:

    Charles said:

    eristdoof said:

    Dont know anything about his policies or popularity but Latvian PM comes across very well on Marr speaking in a foreign language. Puts our politicians (almost) across the board to shame.

    There are 3 MPS who regularly give interviews in German on German radio, conveniently one Tory, one Labour and one LD. Farage despite having a German wife does not give interviews in German.

    I'm guessing there are more who can/could give interviews in French or Spanish
    How do they come across? I am not praising him solely for speaking English, I was (trying to) praise him for coming across as articulate, pragmatic, clear, confident and concise, out of which most of are MPs can only manage 2 or 3.
    The Baltics are a little unusual in that a generation of people grew up listening to the World Service (broadcast from Helsinki) as an act of minor rebellion against the Russians
    Finnish TV could be seen in Estonia, where the native Estonians also generally understand the language (whereas the 40% immigrant Russian speakers do not). It was quite a thing for them to see advertised products not available in their own country. They could have no doubt as to the relative standard of living under capitalism and Soviet communism.
    I understand it took the might Red Army the best part of ten years to eliminate the Forest Brothers, the Estonian anti-Russian resistance, after reconquest in 1944/5.
    And no, AIUI, the Brothers weren't pro-German. They were pro-Estonian.
    Easy to understand the attachment the Baltics have for the EU as a bulwark against their overbearing and often hostile neighbour.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    edited October 2019
    Morning all,

    I see the Brexit virus is even more brain rotting than we first thought. The level of derangement is quite something:

    Cabinet ministers discussing sending Farage as next EU commissioner.

    "Steve Baker, the former Brexit minister, who compared it to shooting “a nuclear weapon into the heart of the asteroid”."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/05/boris-johnson-sabotage-eu-forced-delay-brexit/
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337

    TGOHF2 said:

    For Remain - the only way out of this trap is the removal of Corbyn and McDonnell.

    Until they come to terms with this well they are simply digging a hole to escape an asteroid.

    Au contraire, Remain needs to acknowledge that Corbyn must be part of the solution, if only in the short term. Once the election are called, the LibDems, SNP, assorted TIGgers and expelled Tories can (and must) return to opposing Corbyn with all their might, but in the immediate term, the path to Remain runs through extension, election and the grand offices of the Leader of Her Majesty's Most Loyal Opposition.
    It would be very helpful, and would have been so from 2016, had May in particular made some effort to get other parties than the DUP on board in her negotiations.
    Though tbf, if the opposition can't align to stop evil Tory baby-eating Brexit (or whatever Corbyn calls it), then it's a strategy which may yet prove electorally worthwhile.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Morning all,

    I see the Brexit virus is even more brain rotting than we first thought. The level of derangement is quite something:

    Cabinet ministers discussing sending Farage as next EU commissioner.

    "Steve Baker, the former Brexit minister, who compared it to shooting “a nuclear weapon into the heart of the asteroid”."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/05/boris-johnson-sabotage-eu-forced-delay-brexit/

    It is a mind-bendingly stupid idea. It will no doubt be hugely popular with the death cult, who will then fume when it is wafted away effortlessly.
  • Henry_CHenry_C Posts: 73
    Charles said:

    Which is constitutional fact - we always have a PM

    No - there have been several gaps. Seven PMs have died in office, most recently Palmerston in October 1865, when there was no PM for 11 days. When the meeting at the Carlton Club in October 1922 did for Lloyd George, there was no PM for four days. Dangerous month, October.

    One can show it like this too: the PM is PM by appointment.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,478
    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    Charles said:

    eristdoof said:

    Dont know anything about his policies or popularity but Latvian PM comes across very well on Marr speaking in a foreign language. Puts our politicians (almost) across the board to shame.

    There are 3 MPS who regularly give interviews in German on German radio, conveniently one Tory, one Labour and one LD. Farage despite having a German wife does not give interviews in German.

    I'm guessing there are more who can/could give interviews in French or Spanish
    How do they come across? I am not praising him solely for speaking English, I was (trying to) praise him for coming across as articulate, pragmatic, clear, confident and concise, out of which most of are MPs can only manage 2 or 3.
    The Baltics are a little unusual in that a generation of people grew up listening to the World Service (broadcast from Helsinki) as an act of minor rebellion against the Russians
    Finnish TV could be seen in Estonia, where the native Estonians also generally understand the language (whereas the 40% immigrant Russian speakers do not). It was quite a thing for them to see advertised products not available in their own country. They could have no doubt as to the relative standard of living under capitalism and Soviet communism.
    I understand it took the might Red Army the best part of ten years to eliminate the Forest Brothers, the Estonian anti-Russian resistance, after reconquest in 1944/5.
    And no, AIUI, the Brothers weren't pro-German. They were pro-Estonian.
    Easy to understand the attachment the Baltics have for the EU as a bulwark against their overbearing and often hostile neighbour.
    The Russian bear has rarely been a good neighbour. It's been expansionist since the time of the Grand Duchy of Muscovy and the father of Ivan the Terrible.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    felix said:

    I'm entertained by the polls. If as suggested the Tories are going to win by a HYUFD-gasm then the Tories would be picking up seats like Stockton South. Yet all the noise on social media is Brexit. The people making said noise are notable Tory dampers and yet every man Jack of them are voting Brexit not Tory this time.

    How odd to find the polls entertaining yet take postings on social media seriously.?!?
    The problem with the pollsters is that they struggle to find the kind of people motivated by Brexit. Didn't we learn this lesson in 2016? The paradigm is leave/remain now, not Lab/Con. That they are pro-Leave does not make them pro-Tory as is becoming the default assumption, with people then feeding that assumption into UNS and hey presto a Tory majority of 704.

    Some seats are going to be a genuine 4 or 5 way split. Which means utter chaos. Not a Tory majority
    Most people are nothing like as obsessed with Brexit as you - and the commentariat - clearly assume. Indeed they are sick of it and desperate to move on. For that reason , politicians who raise other issues will have a very receptive audience. The 2017 election was meant to be a Brexit election - it wasn't - and neither will the next one by polling day.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    SunnyJim said:

    malcolmg said:


    Very adult, surefire winning tactics

    What are they going to do, start negotiating in bad faith?
    They are already proposing to do that - asking for extensions that they will say are pointless to ensure they do not get one.

    There is also the alleged Hungarian tie-up where they are reportedly asking a foreign govt to work against the UK's interests. I think it used to be called Treason and involved the death penalty. They might want to think about moving Priti Patel to a less crucial dept :D:D
    They disagree about what is in the UK’s interests
    That is the standard position of traitors, yes? I don’t recall Leavers showing such latitude to the views of Remainers when they conflicted with national policy.
    The government has greater latitude in foreign policy than individual citizens
    LOL :D , I bet you don't even realise how you come across , you are so ingrained in the elite, imagining you are so clever and infallible, you actually believe they deserve to do as they wish and just crap on "citizens" as it suits them
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    Charles said:

    eristdoof said:

    Dont know anything about his policies or popularity but Latvian PM comes across very well on Marr speaking in a foreign language. Puts our politicians (almost) across the board to shame.

    There are 3 MPS who regularly give interviews in German on German radio, conveniently one Tory, one Labour and one LD. Farage despite having a German wife does not give interviews in German.

    I'm guessing there are more who can/could give interviews in French or Spanish
    How do they come across? I am not praising him solely for speaking English, I was (trying to) praise him for coming across as articulate, pragmatic, clear, confident and concise, out of which most of are MPs can only manage 2 or 3.
    The Baltics are a little unusual in that a generation of people grew up listening to the World Service (broadcast from Helsinki) as an act of minor rebellion against the Russians
    Finnish TV could be seen in Estonia, where the native Estonians also generally understand the language (whereas the 40% immigrant Russian speakers do not). It was quite a thing for them to see advertised products not available in their own country. They could have no doubt as to the relative standard of living under capitalism and Soviet communism.
    I understand it took the might Red Army the best part of ten years to eliminate the Forest Brothers, the Estonian anti-Russian resistance, after reconquest in 1944/5.
    And no, AIUI, the Brothers weren't pro-German. They were pro-Estonian.
    Easy to understand the attachment the Baltics have for the EU as a bulwark against their overbearing and often hostile neighbour.
    They were even willing to crown Prince Edward as their King..,
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,478
    Charles said:

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    Charles said:

    eristdoof said:

    Dont know anything about his policies or popularity but Latvian PM comes across very well on Marr speaking in a foreign language. Puts our politicians (almost) across the board to shame.

    There are 3 MPS who regularly give interviews in German on German radio, conveniently one Tory, one Labour and one LD. Farage despite having a German wife does not give interviews in German.

    I'm guessing there are more who can/could give interviews in French or Spanish
    How do they come across? I am not praising him solely for speaking English, I was (trying to) praise him for coming across as articulate, pragmatic, clear, confident and concise, out of which most of are MPs can only manage 2 or 3.
    The Baltics are a little unusual in that a generation of people grew up listening to the World Service (broadcast from Helsinki) as an act of minor rebellion against the Russians
    Finnish TV could be seen in Estonia, where the native Estonians also generally understand the language (whereas the 40% immigrant Russian speakers do not). It was quite a thing for them to see advertised products not available in their own country. They could have no doubt as to the relative standard of living under capitalism and Soviet communism.
    I understand it took the might Red Army the best part of ten years to eliminate the Forest Brothers, the Estonian anti-Russian resistance, after reconquest in 1944/5.
    And no, AIUI, the Brothers weren't pro-German. They were pro-Estonian.
    Easy to understand the attachment the Baltics have for the EU as a bulwark against their overbearing and often hostile neighbour.
    They were even willing to crown Prince Edward as their King..,
    Which Edward? VIII? Take it that was 1944 or so?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    malcolmg said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    SunnyJim said:

    malcolmg said:


    Very adult, surefire winning tactics

    What are they going to do, start negotiating in bad faith?
    They are already proposing to do that - asking for extensions that they will say are pointless to ensure they do not get one.

    There is also the alleged Hungarian tie-up where they are reportedly asking a foreign govt to work against the UK's interests. I think it used to be called Treason and involved the death penalty. They might want to think about moving Priti Patel to a less crucial dept :D:D
    They disagree about what is in the UK’s interests
    That is the standard position of traitors, yes? I don’t recall Leavers showing such latitude to the views of Remainers when they conflicted with national policy.
    The government has greater latitude in foreign policy than individual citizens
    LOL :D , I bet you don't even realise how you come across , you are so ingrained in the elite, imagining you are so clever and infallible, you actually believe they deserve to do as they wish and just crap on "citizens" as it suits them
    No. I just believe that governments have the right to pursue foreign policy as they see fit (subject to parliamentary oversight) and that the voters can judge them at the next election
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    edited October 2019

    Morning all,

    I see the Brexit virus is even more brain rotting than we first thought. The level of derangement is quite something:

    Cabinet ministers discussing sending Farage as next EU commissioner.

    "Steve Baker, the former Brexit minister, who compared it to shooting “a nuclear weapon into the heart of the asteroid”."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/05/boris-johnson-sabotage-eu-forced-delay-brexit/

    It is a mind-bendingly stupid idea. It will no doubt be hugely popular with the death cult, who will then fume when it is wafted away effortlessly.
    Just about everything that comes from Cummings is mind-bendingly stupid.

    Witness today's nonsense in Sunday Times.

    The Queen and her advisors will be absolutely apoplectic this morning.

    Conservative Party RIP: 1834-2019.

    Passed away noisily, overwhelmed by mad monks.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    Charles said:

    SunnyJim said:

    malcolmg said:


    Very adult, surefire winning tactics

    What are they going to do, start negotiating in bad faith?
    They are already proposing to do that - asking for extensions that they will say are pointless to ensure they do not get one.

    There is also the alleged Hungarian tie-up where they are reportedly asking a foreign govt to work against the UK's interests. I think it used to be called Treason and involved the death penalty. They might want to think about moving Priti Patel to a less crucial dept :D:D
    They disagree about what is in the UK’s interests
    Throwing the UK under a bus to achieve an outcome (No Deal) that will harm the country economically is not in the country's interest.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    Charles said:

    eristdoof said:

    Dont know anything about his policies or popularity but Latvian PM comes across very well on Marr speaking in a foreign language. Puts our politicians (almost) across the board to shame.

    There are 3 MPS who regularly give interviews in German on German radio, conveniently one Tory, one Labour and one LD. Farage despite having a German wife does not give interviews in German.

    I'm guessing there are more who can/could give interviews in French or Spanish
    How do they come across? I am not praising him solely for speaking English, I was (trying to) praise him for coming across as articulate, pragmatic, clear, confident and concise, out of which most of are MPs can only manage 2 or 3.
    The Baltics are a little unusual in that a generation of people grew up listening to the World Service (broadcast from Helsinki) as an act of minor rebellion against the Russians
    Finnish TV could be seen in Estonia, where the native Estonians also generally understand the language (whereas the 40% immigrant Russian speakers do not). It was quite a thing for them to see advertised products not available in their own country. They could have no doubt as to the relative standard of living under capitalism and Soviet communism.
    I understand it took the might Red Army the best part of ten years to eliminate the Forest Brothers, the Estonian anti-Russian resistance, after reconquest in 1944/5.
    And no, AIUI, the Brothers weren't pro-German. They were pro-Estonian.
    Easy to understand the attachment the Baltics have for the EU as a bulwark against their overbearing and often hostile neighbour.
    They were even willing to crown Prince Edward as their King..,
    Which Edward? VIII? Take it that was 1944 or so?
    In 1990 (I think) - Edward, Earl of Wessex was the lucky gentleman. He wanted to but the FCO was concerned about the risk of us having to intervene if Russia invaded so the government vetoed the idea
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    Charles said:

    eristdoof said:

    Dont know anything about his policies or popularity but Latvian PM comes across very well on Marr speaking in a foreign language. Puts our politicians (almost) across the board to shame.

    There are 3 MPS who regularly give interviews in German on German radio, conveniently one Tory, one Labour and one LD. Farage despite having a German wife does not give interviews in German.

    I'm guessing there are more who can/could give interviews in French or Spanish
    How do they come across? I am not praising him solely for speaking English, I was (trying to) praise him for coming across as articulate, pragmatic, clear, confident and concise, out of which most of are MPs can only manage 2 or 3.
    The Baltics are a little unusual in that a generation of people grew up listening to the World Service (broadcast from Helsinki) as an act of minor rebellion against the Russians
    Finnish TV could be seen in Estonia, where the native Estonians also generally understand the language (whereas the 40% immigrant Russian speakers do not). It was quite a thing for them to see advertised products not available in their own country. They could have no doubt as to the relative standard of living under capitalism and Soviet communism.
    I understand it took the might Red Army the best part of ten years to eliminate the Forest Brothers, the Estonian anti-Russian resistance, after reconquest in 1944/5.
    And no, AIUI, the Brothers weren't pro-German. They were pro-Estonian.
    Easy to understand the attachment the Baltics have for the EU as a bulwark against their overbearing and often hostile neighbour.
    They were even willing to crown Prince Edward as their King..,
    Which Edward? VIII? Take it that was 1944 or so?
    In 1990 (I think) - Edward, Earl of Wessex was the lucky gentleman. He wanted to but the FCO was concerned about the risk of us having to intervene if Russia invaded so the government vetoed the idea
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,616

    SunnyJim said:

    malcolmg said:


    Very adult, surefire winning tactics

    What are they going to do, start negotiating in bad faith?
    They are already proposing to do that - asking for extensions that they will say are pointless to ensure they do not get one.

    There is also the alleged Hungarian tie-up where they are reportedly asking a foreign govt to work against the UK's interests. I think it used to be called Treason and involved the death penalty. They might want to think about moving Priti Patel to a less crucial dept :D:D
    If you want Brexit done and dusted, then having Hunagary (or A N Other EU Nation) call an end to any more extensions is working FOR the UK's interests. That you want Brexit killed inures you to this. Instead, it is you who resorts to emotive language.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    SunnyJim said:

    malcolmg said:


    Very adult, surefire winning tactics

    What are they going to do, start negotiating in bad faith?
    They are already proposing to do that - asking for extensions that they will say are pointless to ensure they do not get one.

    There is also the alleged Hungarian tie-up where they are reportedly asking a foreign govt to work against the UK's interests. I think it used to be called Treason and involved the death penalty. They might want to think about moving Priti Patel to a less crucial dept :D:D
    They disagree about what is in the UK’s interests
    Throwing the UK under a bus to achieve an outcome (No Deal) that will harm the country economically is not in the country's interest.
    Told you you disagreed 😂
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    edited October 2019
    If any PBers did not see last night's BBC4 film, "The King's Choice", I cannot recommend more highly.

    Superb film. Amazing story of King of Norway's efforts in 1940 to avoid acting in an unconstitutional manner despite the invasion of Germany.

    Amazingly topical given the way Cummings wants to drag her majesty into events.
  • viewcode said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Anyone seen Joker?

    No, fortunately. He's quite bad enough in Downing Street, I don't want to see him in Cannock.
    It's all...part of...the plaaaaaannnn
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0AXgaFqEas
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    justin124 said:

    felix said:

    I'm entertained by the polls. If as suggested the Tories are going to win by a HYUFD-gasm then the Tories would be picking up seats like Stockton South. Yet all the noise on social media is Brexit. The people making said noise are notable Tory dampers and yet every man Jack of them are voting Brexit not Tory this time.

    How odd to find the polls entertaining yet take postings on social media seriously.?!?
    The problem with the pollsters is that they struggle to find the kind of people motivated by Brexit. Didn't we learn this lesson in 2016? The paradigm is leave/remain now, not Lab/Con. That they are pro-Leave does not make them pro-Tory as is becoming the default assumption, with people then feeding that assumption into UNS and hey presto a Tory majority of 704.

    Some seats are going to be a genuine 4 or 5 way split. Which means utter chaos. Not a Tory majority
    Most people are nothing like as obsessed with Brexit as you - and the commentariat - clearly assume. Indeed they are sick of it and desperate to move on. For that reason , politicians who raise other issues will have a very receptive audience. The 2017 election was meant to be a Brexit election - it wasn't - and neither will the next one by polling day.
    And for that reason if Brexit is reversed - a growing possibility IMO - it will not be revived. No serious politician will propose putting the country through a rerun of the past three years.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    Charles said:

    malcolmg said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    SunnyJim said:

    malcolmg said:


    Very adult, surefire winning tactics

    What are they going to do, start negotiating in bad faith?
    They are already proposing to do that - asking for extensions that they will say are pointless to ensure they do not get one.

    There is also the alleged Hungarian tie-up where they are reportedly asking a foreign govt to work against the UK's interests. I think it used to be called Treason and involved the death penalty. They might want to think about moving Priti Patel to a less crucial dept :D:D
    They disagree about what is in the UK’s interests
    That is the standard position of traitors, yes? I don’t recall Leavers showing such latitude to the views of Remainers when they conflicted with national policy.
    The government has greater latitude in foreign policy than individual citizens
    LOL :D , I bet you don't even realise how you come across , you are so ingrained in the elite, imagining you are so clever and infallible, you actually believe they deserve to do as they wish and just crap on "citizens" as it suits them
    No. I just believe that governments have the right to pursue foreign policy as they see fit (subject to parliamentary oversight) and that the voters can judge them at the next election
    This lot should be out asap they are the worst I have ever seen, a bunch of lying crooks. The UK system may have been OK 200 years ago but it is so obsolete it needs scrapped and modernised immediately. UK is doomed by actions of these clowns.
This discussion has been closed.